Carlos Carrasco Set For Rehab Assignment, Likely To Return As Reliever
Indians righty Carlos Carrasco, out since late May after being diagnosed with chronic myeloid leukemia, is set to appear in a rehab game for AA-Akron on Monday, per The Athletic’s Zack Meisel. Carrasco will be limited to just an inning in preparation for a bullpen role upon return, per Meisel. The rotation lynchpin, who last appeared regularly in a relief role back in 2014, was “excited” about the imminent transition, according to manager Terry Francona, who offered little window into the timetable for the 32-year-old’s return.
It’s obviously an encouraging development for the surging Tribe, who’ve been stripped near to the bone of the AL’s most intimidating starting corps entering the season. Righties Corey Kluber and Danny Salazar remain on the mend, while righty Mike Clevinger, who’s now pacing the AL is park-adjusted FIP and xFIP, missed much of the season’s first half. Ascendant righties – the team seems to have a near-limitless supply – Shane Bieber and Zach Plesac have kept things afloat, though the latter’s ERA far outstrips his less-encouraging peripherals.
The bullpen has been stellar throughout, though the team’s ERA/FIP gap is the widest in the majors, and the back end, apart from a dominant Brad Hand, is still absent the wipeout bat-missers that populate so many of the games best ‘pens these days. A healthy Carrasco, who’s set down hitters at the highest rate of his career thus far, would seem to be the perfect antidote.
Before the illness, Carrasco’s 2019 season was in some ways his best: in addition to the aforementioned strikeout rate, the 32-year-old had also posted his lowest career walk rate (1.52 per nine) and a swinging strike rate that checked in among the league’s best. His homer rate was off the charts, but a 20.0% HR/FB suggests the 1.94/9 mark is hardly sustainable (though with balls continuing to fly out at record-shattering paces, expectations may need to be adjusted).
Pitcher Notes: Carrasco, Scherzer, German
The latest on a few notable right-handers…
- The Indians’ Carlos Carrasco took a significant step Friday toward returning to a major league mound, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com explains. Carrasco, out since the end of May because of a leukemia diagnosis, threw his first live batting practice session, tossing 25 pitches to Single-A hitters. The Indians are deciding on a next step for Carrasco, who still doesn’t have a timetable for a return. Regardless of whether the 32-year-old does come back this season, manager Terry Francona said what Carrasco accomplished Friday was “a huge boost to him.”
- The Nationals had hope that ace Max Scherzer would come off the injured list this weekend, but that isn’t going to happen, Eddie Matz of ESPN.com reports. Scherzer, shelved since July 25 with a mild rhomboid strain, still has to build his arm up more before he slots back into Washington’s rotation. He threw a 60-pitch simulated game this past Tuesday and will aim for “75, 80 pitches” on Saturday, according to manager Dave Martinez. If that goes well, it seems quite possible Scherzer will come off the IL sometime next week. The three-time Cy Young winner’s injury issues have limited him to just two starts since the beginning of July.
- Yankees righty Domingo German has thrown 120 innings between the majors and minors this year, putting him on pace to eclipse the professional-high 123 2/3 he amassed in 2017. The starter-needy, World Series hopeful Yankees are unlikely to limit German’s workload, though, in part because he missed three weeks earlier this season with a hip flexor strain, George A. King III of the New York Post writes. “There are no innings limits when you are in October. All safeties are off,” general manager Brian Cashman said, adding that German “already has had a timeout.” The 24-year-old German has been one of the top options in a shaky New York rotation this season, having pitched to a 3.96 ERA/4.64 FIP with 9.62 K/9 and 2.02 BB/9 over 116 MLB frames.
AL Health Notes: Cole, Indians, A’s, Rays, Tigers
The Astros made right-handed ace Gerrit Cole a late scratch from his start against the White Sox on Tuesday because of right hamstring discomfort, Jake Kaplan of The Athletic was among those to report. The severity of the injury isn’t known, but it’s worth keeping an eye on considering Cole’s importance to the Astros and his status as the game’s best pending free agent. As of now, the 28-year-old workhorse is on pace for his third consecutive 200-inning season. He has given Houston 156 2/3 frames of 2.87 ERA/3.11 FIP ball with 12.98 K/9 and 2.24 BB/9 in 2019.
- Indians righty Carlos Carrasco has been battling leukemia, which has kept him out of action since May 30, but he’s champing at the bit to return, Mandy Bell of MLB.com explains. Carrasco, who fielded grounders off the mound at Progressive Field on Tuesday, is hoping to throw to hitters Friday. Manager Terry Francona wasn’t prepared to state whether that’ll happen, saying: “That’s still to be determined. I mean, the idea that he wants to, I think is terrific. But there’s got to be some sign-off from the medical people. But the fact he feels he’s ready to do that is tremendous.” Meanwhile, fellow key righty Corey Kluber was effective over four innings during a rehab start at the Double-A level Tuesday, Bell tweets. Afterward, Kluber called it “the last big step” in his rehab (via SportsTime Ohio). The two-time Cy Young winner has been out since fracturing his right forearm May 1, but the Indians have nonetheless gone 72-47. With a half-game lead in the AL Central, they have the inside track on a fourth straight division title.
- Athletics southpaw Sean Manaea enjoyed an encouraging rehab start with Triple-A Las Vegas on Tuesday, Ron Kroichick of the San Francisco Chronicle details. Manaea, out since last September after undergoing shoulder surgery, fired 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball and totaled 10 strikeouts. He and fellow rehabbing lefty Jesus Luzardo seem that much closer to giving playoff-contending Oakland a couple much-needed pitching reinforcements. Luzardo, also out all season (because of shoulder and lat troubles), will start for Las Vegas on Thursday, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com tweets.
- Rays infielders Brandon Lowe and Joey Wendle are moving toward rehab assignments, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. Lowe went to the IL on July 4 with a right shin contusion, while Wendle has been down since the end of last month with a wrist issue. The 25-year-old Lowe had been a serious candidate for the AL’s top rookie honors prior to his injury, as he slashed .276/.339/.523 with 16 home runs and 2.5 fWAR in 307 plate appearances.
- Tigers lefty Blaine Hardy has undergone a season-ending platelet-rich plasma injection, Chris McCosky of the Detroit News reports. Hardy amassed 44 1/3 innings out of the Tigers’ bullpen this season and recorded a 4.47 ERA/5.72 FIP with 5.89 K/9, 2.64 BB/9 and a 48.5 percent groundball rate.
Carlos Carrasco Diagnosed With Leukemia
SUNDAY: The Indians issued an update on Carrasco on Sunday, Zack Meisel of The Athletic tweets. “Last month, Carlos Carrasco was diagnosed with chronic myeloid leukemia, a treatable form. He has been cleared to resume strength and conditioning workouts and throwing activity. No timetable for a return.”
SATURDAY: Carlos Carrasco has been diagnosed with leukemia, he told Dominican news channel CDN 37. Carrasco has been treated, and he has it under control to the point where he hopes to return to pitch again this season, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter).
The Indians certainly will take their time with Carrasco, though this newest diagnoses sheds some light on what has been a difficult season for Carrasco. Previous indications were that Carrasco was suffering from a blood condition that, at the very least, prompted lethargy and the pursuit of treatment.
The Indians placed him on the injured list on June 5 after seeing their longtime co-ace pitch to a 4-6 record with an uncharacteristic 4.98 ERA (4.13 FIP). Carrasco has long been underrated while pitching in the shadow of star righty Corey Kluber and the outspoken Trevor Bauer, but even in an off-year with significantly mitigating factors, Carrasco put together 65 innings of palatable baseball.
The team has shown up in full support of Carrasco as he recovers. Per Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal, Carrasco was present on June 4 for a team meeting wherein they discussed the situation. This team meeting was not about baseball, but about supporting Carrasco as he undergoes recovery.
AL Central Notes: Kluber, Carrasco, Turnbull, Buxton, ChiSox, Abreu
The Indians have been without Corey Kluber since May 3, when he suffered a forearm fracture upon being hit by a comeback line-drive, but Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer provides some reason for optimism regarding his return. Kluber went through his throwing motion while wearing “stabilizing straps” this week and is slated to undergo MRIs to determine whether his fracture has healed. If that proves to be the case, he’d be cleared to begin a throwing program.
There’s also some progress to report on Carlos Carrasco, who is out indefinitely due to an undisclosed blood condition. Carrasco played catch this week, Hoynes notes, and the Tribe could learn within the next two to three weeks whether his condition can be managed. If that’s the case, he could rejoin the Indians’ rotation even before Kluber. That said, the Cleveland organization still isn’t fully sure when or if either righty will return to the 2019 club.
Here’s more from the division…
- Tigers right-hander Spencer Turnbull left today’s start after just two innings due to shoulder fatigue, manager Ron Gardenhire told The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen (Twitter link) and other media. An MRI didn’t reveal any structural damage and Turnbull didn’t feel any pain, but rather the club decided to make the move due to a drop in Turnbull’s fastball velocity. It isn’t known yet if Turnbull will miss any time, though it would mark yet another pitching injury for Detroit’s rotation this season. Turnbull’s emergence helped the club fill one hole in the starting five, as the rookie has a 3.31 ERA, 8.43 K/9 and 49% grounder rate over 89 2/3 innings.
- Byron Buxton is “getting close to his return” from the injured list, MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park tweets. Buxton was sidelined on June 18 (IL placement retroactive to June 15) with a wrist contusion after being hit by a pitch, and while the Twins outfielder has already exceeded the 10-day minimum IL stint, the injury isn’t considered to be serious. Buxton was expected to face live pitching today in the Twins’ indoor batting cage, though rain kept him participating in on-field batting, Park notes. Buxton’s all-around play has been a key factor in Minnesota’s rise to the top of the AL Central, as he has provided his usual excellent center field defense and baserunning while also hitting .266/.324/.527 with nine homers over 227 plate appearances.
- The White Sox have been open about their desire to keep Jose Abreu beyond the 2019 season, and the first baseman also has no plans to leave the south side, he tells Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. “I’ll always be a White Sox….I’m a part of this organization. This is the organization that gave me a chance to play at this level and made all my dreams come true. I hope to stay here a very long time,” Abreu said. While there’s nothing stopping the Sox from trading Abreu at the deadline and then re-signing him after the season, Abreu said he expects to remain with the club. As Sullivan notes, this might leave Alex Colome as the only real trade chip for the White Sox at the deadline, as Chicago’s other veteran players apart from Colome, Abreu, and James McCann (who might also be retained) have largely struggled.
Indians Place Carlos Carrasco On 10-Day IL Due To Blood Condition
The Indians announced that right-hander Carlos Carrasco has been placed on the 10-day injured list, due to a non-baseball-related blood condition. With Carrasco on the IL and outfielder Greg Allen sent down to Triple-A Columbus, right-handers Nick Goody and Jon Edwards have been called up from Triple-A to fill the two open roster spots.
The full statement from the team on Carrasco’s situation…
“Carlos was recently diagnosed with a blood condition following several weeks of feeling lethargic. While in the information-gathering stage, Carlos is stepping away from baseball activities to explore the optimal treatment and recovery options, the details of which will be conveyed at the discretion of Carlos and his family. We do not know when Carlos will rejoin the club but expect him back at some point this season. At this time, our primary concern is Carlos’ health and we will respect his wishes to keep this a private matter. We ask everyone to keep Carlos and his family in their thoughts during his challenging time.”
As by recently noted by MLBTR’s Connor Byrne, Carrasaco was enduring a tough season, with a 4.98 ERA thanks to huge spikes in his hard-contact, fly ball, and home run rates. While the exact timeline of Carrasco’s illness isn’t known, he tossed 12 innings of shutout ball over starts on May 9 and May 14 before allowing 14 earned runs over his next three outings (17 2/3 IP).
The fact that Carrasco is expected back on the mound this season is certainly good news, and we at MLBTR join the rest of the baseball world in wishing Carrasco and his family all the best. This isn’t the first health issue that the 32-year-old Carrasco has faced, as he dealt with a heart condition in 2015, as well as a pair of major baseball-related major injuries (Tommy John surgery in 2011, a broken hand at the end of the 2016 season that sidelined him for Cleveland’s postseason run).
The Indians went into the season counting on being carried by arguably the game’s best rotation, though that starting five has now lost Carrasco, Corey Kluber, and Mike Clevinger for extended periods. Clevinger is close to beginning a rehab assignment after missing almost two months due to back problems, though Carrasco is out indefinitely and Kluber is still a long ways from a return after suffering a fractured forearm in early May. Yefry Rodriguez had made eight starts for the Tribe filling in for Kluber, though Rodriguez himself went on the IL yesterday with a shoulder strain.
This leaves Trevor Bauer, Shane Bieber, and rookie Zach Plesac as the only healthy members of Cleveland’s rotation. Cody Anderson and Adam Plutko have made starts for the Tribe this season and could again be recalled from Triple-A, plus Chih-Wei Hu and Asher Wojciechowski are also available in the Columbus rotation as further depth. Cleveland currently has a 10-man bullpen, and could also deploy an opener to account for at least one of those open rotation spots rather than a regular starter.
As the injuries continue to mount, it will increase speculation that the Tribe could be sellers rather than buyers at the trade deadline. Though the Indians entered today’s action just a game out of a wild card spot, Cleveland has a 30-30 record, a minus-13 run differential, and is already staring at a 10.5 game deficit behind the surprising Twins in the AL Central. The Tribe were already aggressive in cutting salary over the offseason, and rather than go all-out in pursuit of a one-game playoff, the team could continue to move payroll to streamline its roster and perhaps reload for another shot at contending in 2020.
Carlos Carrasco Has Gone Backward
Indians right-hander Carlos Carrasco was somewhat quietly one of the majors’ most dominant starters from 2014-18. During that 807 2/3-inning, 131-start span, Carrasco recorded a 3.31 ERA/3.03 FIP with 10.18 K/9, 2.03 BB/9, a 48.0 percent groundball rate and upward of 20 wins above replacement. That five-year stretch convinced the Indians to keep and extend Carrasco in the offseason, when there were rumblings they could offload starters, signing him to a team-friendly contract. Two months into the season, though, the back-to-back-to-back AL Central champions haven’t resembled their previous selves, in part because Carrasco hasn’t managed the same results as he did in prior years.
The 32-year-old Carrasco has pitched to a 4.98 ERA through 65 innings, averaging just over five frames per start after logging better than six an outing during the previous half-decade. Carrasco’s 4.07 FIP is nowhere near as underwhelming as his ERA, but it’s still a run higher than he and the Indians are accustomed to. His strikeout and walk rates are phenomenal (10.94 K/9, 1.52 BB/9), and his .353 batting average on balls in play further suggests positive regression in the run prevention department. Aside from those figures, though, there are legit reasons for concern regarding Carrasco.
It begins with a newfound difficulty keeping the ball out of the air. Carrasco’s groundball percentage has nosedived to a career-worst 39.2, leading to personal worsts in fly ball rate (38.7) and launch angle against (14.2). Surprise, surprise: Home run troubles have come with those changes. Carrasco’s yielding gopher balls on 20 percent of flies, up from 12.7 during his aforementioned five-year stretch of excellence. It’s not just HRs, though – Carrasco’s surrendering more damaging contact in general. He ranks in the bottom 8 percent of the league or worse in exit velocity against (90.9), barrel percentage against (14.1) and hard-hit rate (47.3 percent), according to Statcast, which also assigns Carrasco a below-average expected weighted on-base average against (.329, compared to .280 in 2018).
So what’s causing Carrasco to falter? His biggest problem seems to be his changeup, a pitch he has relied on between 16 and 18 percent of the time dating back to last season. Batters have posted a .432/.377 xwOBA versus the offering this season after mustering a matching (and weak) .224/.224 against it a year ago. As is typically the case with changeups, Carrasco has primarily used it in an effort to quell opposite-handed hitters. They’ve caused the most damage against Carrasco, though, having slashed .287/.331/.574 for a .371 wOBA.
In essence, the average lefty swinger who has faced Carrasco in 2019 has hit like Trevor Story or Matt Chapman. That wasn’t the case last year, when lefties managed a Joe Panik-esque .302 wOBA off Carrasco. It’s happening in part because Carrasco isn’t locating his change as precisely as he did in 2018, keeping it too close to the middle of the plate (and inside versus lefties). That wasn’t true last season. Carrasco has had a similar problem with his curveball, having allowed a ludicrous .908/.719 wOBA/xwOBA when throwing it, though he has only turned to the pitch 2.3 percent of the time (down 5 percent from last year, when it was much more effective).
Cleveland’s a 28-28 team with a minus-12 run differential, already facing a 9 1/2-game deficit in the division it has owned in recent seasons. Considering the myriad issues the Indians are facing – including the weeks-long absences of injured righties Corey Kluber and Mike Clevinger, not to mention fellow RHP Trevor Bauer‘s own decline – a middling version of Carrasco is one of the last things they needed. That’s what the Indians have gotten, though, and unless Carrasco returns to form, catching the first-place Twins is going to be an even tougher task.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
AL Central Notes: Mize, Carrasco, Soler
The Tigers announced Thursday that top pitching prospect Casey Mize has been promoted to Double-A Erie. Mize, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draft, tore through an early assignment to Class-A Advanced, posting a comical 0.35 ERA with a 25-to-1 K/BB ratio in 26 innings of work prior to the promotion. The former Auburn ace, clearly miles ahead of the competition he faced at that first stop, looks to be on a relatively fast track to the big leagues. The 21-year-old (22 on May 1) totaled 128 1/3 innings between college ball and the minor leagues last season, so he may not even be on all that aggressive of an innings cap (although surely the Tigers will exercise some degree of caution as pertains to his workload). Widely regarded as one of the game’s best overall prospects, Mize could put himself in the conversation for a big league promotion this summer or in early 2020, at the latest, assuming things go smoothly in Double-A and Triple-A.
More from the division…
- An MRI revealed no damage in the ailing knee of Indians right-hander Carlos Carrasco, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes. Carrasco tweaked the knee in his most recent start against the Marlins while covering first base on a grounder, and while he finished that frame (the fourth), he didn’t return for the fifth. The righty told skipper Terry Francona that the knee had begun to tighten up, and the Cleveland manager understandably opted to go the cautious route. Carrasco is in line to make his next scheduled start on Sunday and seemingly won’t have any limitations placed on him.
- The Royals are cognizant of the fact that Jorge Soler‘s work in right field is a work in progress, at best, but the organization plans to continue giving him opportunities to improve, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan writes. It seems the team believes there’s better glovework to be unlocked with more reps, with Soler possessing the physical tools needed to man the position. The coaching staff is stressing the need for him to take better routes to the ball — particularly when it’s hit over his head. There’s little doubt that Soler’s upside would be maximized by playing on the grass regularly, rather than serving solely as a DH, though he has already logged more than two thousand MLB innings in the outfield without mastering the gig. He’s also pacing the American League with 39 strikeouts and carrying a .288 on-base percentage, which arguably represent larger concerns. Soler is under contract through 2020 under the international free agent contract he originally signed out of Cuba. The out-of-options 27-year-old will be eligible for arbitration for one season thereafter.
AL Pitching Injury Notes: Snell, Carrasco, Smyly, Estrada, Hardy
The Rays have decided to start ace lefty Blake Snell today after he bounced back quicker than expected from a minor toe fracture, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. There are some obvious risks to bringing him back before he’s ready, but the organization obviously feels that isn’t the case. The reigning American League Cy Young winner has been outstanding once again early in 2019, with a 2.16 ERA and 13.0 K/9 against 1.4 BB/9 over 25 frames.
More on the health front, focusing on some other AL hurlers:
- Indians righty Carlos Carrasco departed his start yesterday early with some left knee discomfort and will undergo an MRI to make sure there isn’t an injury. It’s being billed as a precautionary measure, as MLB.com’s Mandy Bell reports (via Twitter). The Indians will hope it comes back clean, as he’s a key part of the team’s plan to fend off challengers in the AL Central. Carrasco has had a few rough outings this year, but has also spun a pair of 12-strikeout gems and was getting the job done yesterday before tweaking the joint.
- Rangers starter Drew Smyly was placed on the 10-day injured list yesterday with what the club described as mid-arm nerve tightness in his left arm. It seems the hope is that he’ll only miss a start or two; the placement was back-dated to April 20th. The 29-year-old Smyly hasn’t quite had the bounceback campaign he was hoping for to this point, with a 7.80 ERA, 19:10 K/BB ratio, and four home runs allowed through 15 innings over four starts. Right-handed Wei-Chieh Huang is up to take the open roster spot. He made his MLB debut earlier this season and has been throwing well at Double-A.
- The Athletics sent righty Marco Estrada in for an “ablation procedure” on his balky back yesterday, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle was among those to cover (Twitter links). It seems he’ll be out through at least early May, though there isn’t a precise timeline just yet. The hope seems to be that this surgery will speed things up a bit. Meanwhile, the A’s hoping that reliever Lou Trivino will bounce back quickly after he was struck in the thumb by a baseball. He’s taking a few days but not slated to hit the injured list at the moment.
- The Tigers announced yesterday that lefty Blaine Hardy was heading to the IL with a left forearm strain. Injuries to that area can be quite concerning for a pitcher, but there’s no real indication at this point of the outlook for the 32-year-old. After dabbling with the rotation in 2018, Hardy has been utilized in a multi-inning relief capacity thus far, throwing a dozen frames in eight appearances. Fellow southpaw Jose Fernandez takes his spot on the active roster.
Olney’s Latest: Thor, Mets, Dodgers, Astros, Bucs, Indians
Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen has suggested he’s inclined to keep right-hander Noah Syndergaard, but some teams believe they’d “absolutely” deal him “for the right offer,” Buster Olney of ESPN writes (subscription required). The Syndergaard situation has been among the most interesting storylines of the young offseason, and it appears it’ll remain that way with the aggressive Van Wagenen set for his first Winter Meetings atop the Mets. With three arbitration-eligible seasons remaining, Syndergaard is one of the most valuable players in the game, which has led to heavy interest in the 26-year-old this winter but could also influence New York to go forward with him.
Here’s more from Olney:
- The Dodgers look to be a driving force in the outfield market, Olney observes on Twitter. Not only could the Dodgers trade any of Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp or Joc Pederson and pursue Bryce Harper, Olney notes, but he also connects them to free-agent center fielder A.J. Pollock. Needless to say, of Puig, Kemp and Pederson, the latter would warrant the highest return in a trade. The soon-to-be 27-year-old Pederson’s coming off the most effective season of the trio and is the only one controllable beyond 2019. Further, he’s projected to earn an eminently reasonable $4.7MM next year, his penultimate season of arbitration eligibility.
- The Dodgers are also “all in” on the catcher market, as are the Astros and Mets, Olney reports. Any of those teams could find its answer with Pittsburgh’s Francisco Cervelli, for whom the Pirates are willing to consider offers, according to Olney. Cervelli is coming off an impressive 2018, but as a soon-to-be 33-year-old who’s expensive ($11.5MM), down to his last season of team control and has a startling history of concussions, the low-budget Pirates may be willing to go in another direction.
- Back to the Astros, who didn’t earnestly pursue righty Nathan Eovaldi in free agency, Olney relays. The two sides were a match on paper, Olney points out, as Eovaldi’s a Houston native and the Astros are seeking starting help. Eovaldi re-signed with the Red Sox this week on a four-year, $68MM deal, though, and the Astros continue to need a starter. There’s “one industry theory” that the Astros are more focused on upgrading via trade, which could point them to Syndergaard, Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer or Zack Greinke, Olney notes.
- After the season, when Olney reported the Indians planned to consider offers for their front-line starters (Kluber, Bauer and Carlos Carrasco), the Tribe didn’t expect to extend any of those three, Olney writes. However, the Indians re-upped Carrasco this week, in part because the 31-year-old made it clear he didn’t want to leave. Carrasco’s agents got to work on an extension with Cleveland shortly after questions about the futures of the team’s premier starters began swirling, and the two sides ultimately hammered out an agreement. Now, the Indians have “no interest” in trading Carrasco, Olney reports.