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Cody Bellinger

Arbitration Breakdown: Cody Bellinger

By Matt Swartz | January 7, 2020 at 5:43am CDT

Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.

Cody Bellinger seeks to break the record for first-time eligible players in 2020, after putting up an MVP campaign in his platform season to tack onto a resume that already has a Rookie of the Year award. Bellinger hit 47 home runs and knocked in 115, while batting .305 and stealing 15 bases through 661 plate appearances. For his career, that gives Bellinger 111 HR, 288 RBI, a .278 average, and 39 steals in 1841 plate appearances. That immediately puts him in rarified air.

In recent memory, only three players have entered arbitration for the first-time with both an ROY and an MVP award. Ryan Howard smashed the first-time eligible arbitration record way back in 2008 with these accomplishments. He had also hit 47 home runs in his platform season, but had batted only .268 (although he did knock in 136 runs). His 129 career home runs and 353 career RBI, plus his .291 career average, led to a $10MM salary after he beat the Phillies in arbitration (who had filed for only $7MM).

It took five more years for another player to reach arbitration with an ROY and MVP, and that was Buster Posey. Posey had only hit 24 HR in his platform year though, and 46 in his career, and ended up with a less remarkable $8MM.

It was not until Kris Bryant again accomplished that combination in 2018 that we saw Ryan Howard’s decade-old record fall as Bryant earned $10.85MM. Bryant is the most obvious comparable for Bellinger here. Bryant had a .295/29/73 platform in 665 PA, which is definitely weaker than Bellinger’s .305/47/115 in 661 PA—especially because Bellinger stole 15 bases to Bryant’s seven. For career numbers, Bryant also fell short in HR (94 versus 111), RBI (274 versus 288), and SB (28 versus 39), but he did have a .288 average to Bellinger’s .278. Of course, batting average has historically been far less important than power numbers for arbitration cases, so it stands to reason Bellinger should top Bryant’s $10.85MM. My model estimates $11.6MM, which may be on the low side.

Finding other comparable players is quite challenging. Two other players have received eight figure salaries in their first year of eligibility. Mookie Betts in 2018 had a .264/24/102 platform year, but had 26 stolen bases that season as well as a career .292/78/310 line and 80 total stolen bases. He got $10.55MM, and Bellinger’s case also looks favorable to his. Last year, Francisco Lindor had a platform .277/38/92 campaign with 25 SB, along with .288/98/310 career along with 71 SB. Lindor received $10.55MM. Again, Bellinger’s case compares favorably.

Overall, this seems likely to just be a matter of how much Bellinger will break Bryant’s record by. I think the floor is probably the $850K difference that the model projects (at $11.6MM), and I could easily see Bellinger landing north of $12MM or perhaps even $13MM.

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Arbitration Breakdown Los Angeles Dodgers MLBTR Originals Cody Bellinger

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Winter Meetings Preview: The Dodgers’ Infield

By TC Zencka | December 9, 2019 at 2:04am CDT

The Los Angeles Dodgers have unsurprisingly been asked about the availability of Gavin Lux, the Dodgers’ minor league player of the year for 2019. Thus far, understandably, suitors have been turned away, per MLB Network Insider Jon Heyman. Granted, this isn’t shocking news in and of itself, but it is telling of the Dodgers’ mindset on the eve of the winter meetings.

Lux, 22, is coming off a monster season that saw him hulk out for a .347/.421/.607 line in 113 games across Double-A and Triple-A (which included a monstrous-even-for-the-PCL .719 SLG and 188 wRC+ in 49 games in Triple-A). He didn’t disappoint in a cup of coffee with the big league club, holding his own at .240/.305/.400 in 23 games of uneven playing time. He proved capable enough to make the playoff roster and earn the start in games 2 and 4 in the NLDS versus the Nationals.

It’s not surprising that the Dodgers would make a point to hang onto the young star, but doing so doesn’t exactly jibe with their rumored interest in free agent Anthony Rendon. Justin Turner has made clear his openness to moving around the diamond, and while it’s certainly nice to be reminded that chivalry is not yet dead, it’s not obvious where Turner would move if the Dodgers are indeed intent on making Lux a part of their core moving forward.

A Corey Seager trade could open a spot with Lux taking over at short, Max Muncy taking full-time duties at second and Turner moving to first. Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernandez, and NL MVP Cody Bellinger are capable of filling in around the infield as needed. But as good as Rendon is, Seager himself was a 4.0 bWAR player in 2019, and it would seem that the Seager/Lux/Muncy/Bellinger/Taylor/Hernandez/Turner septet already provides the perfect amount of wholesale injury coverage and star power. Swapping in Rendon for Seager cuts their shortstop options by one, and while they’d still probably be two injuries away from any real panic, it’s still a little hard to fathom why swapping in Rendon and his presumably monstrous contract makes sense – unless the goal is simply to keep the development train moving by restocking the lower levels via trade.

They could certainly sign Rendon – or Josh Donaldson, for that matter – and shop one of their other infielders, but there’s not a natural fit on that front either. Turner and Muncy have been central figures to the culture and success of the Dodgers in recent seasons, and it’s frankly jarring to imagine either one suiting up elsewhere. Moving Taylor or Hernandez neither frees up at-bats nor brings back a significant prospect haul.

The logical conclusion is that the Dodgers’ interest in Rendon is probably more smoke than fire. President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman has made a point of avoiding lavish and reactionary spending, and a Rendon signing would appear to qualify as both. Luxury tax estimates (per Roster Resource) peg the Dodgers at around $176MM for the upcoming season, which would make it difficult to fit Rendon under the tax line. Their longer-term financial picture is more flexible, however, with only ~$93MM on the books for 2021 and ~$33MM the year after.

The Dodgers did suffer a particularly tough playoff defeat in 2019, and after seven years of making the playoffs and coming home without a ring, it’s fair to wonder if the disciplined roster building that’s become the brand of these Los Angeles Dodgers might finally break under the strain of those playoff defeats. Andrew Friedman is also one of the more creative thinkers in the game and if there’s a way to make this work, he’s sure to find it. But it’s also not hard to see why they’d keep on keeping on with business as usual.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Andrew Friedman Anthony Rendon Chris Taylor Cody Bellinger Corey Seager Enrique Hernandez Gavin Lux Josh Donaldson Justin Turner Max Muncy

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Cody Bellinger, Mike Trout Named League MVPs

By Mark Polishuk | November 14, 2019 at 6:06pm CDT

Dodgers first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger and Angels outfielder Mike Trout were named the Most Valuable Players of their respective leagues, as announced by the Baseball Writers Association Of America.  Full breakdowns of both votes are available on the BBWAA website (National League, American League).

Bellinger received 19 of 30 first-place votes.  Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich made a spirited defense of his 2018 MVP Award by finishing second in the balloting, picking up 10 first-place votes and 18 seconds.  Nationals third baseman Anthony Rendon received the final first-place vote, and his third-place spot in the balloting represents his highest finish in the MVP race following a fifth-place showing in 2014 and a sixth-place result in 2017.

The NL MVP Award adds to an already stuffed trophy case for Bellinger over his three MLB seasons, as the 24-year-old also won Rookie Of The Year honors in 2017, has two All-Star appearances to his name, and won his first Gold Glove and Silver Slugger Awards earlier this fall.  Bellinger hit .305/.406/.629 over 661 PA for the Dodgers, hitting 47 homers and leading all players in bWAR (9.0), while tying for third in fWAR (7.8) with Yelich.

It was expected to be a tight vote between Bellinger and Yelich, with Yelich having the slightly superior hitting numbers despite being limited to 580 PA and 130 games due to recurring back soreness throughout the year, and a fractured kneecap that ended his season on September 10.  That late injury could have swung the vote in Bellinger’s favor, and the Dodgers star was also aided by a superlative defensive performance.  Bellinger had a cumulative 22 Defensive Runs Saved, +13.7 UZR/150, and +7 Outs Above Average as an outfielder, mostly working in right field but also playing 170 2/3 above-average innings in center.  Bellinger also saw some time at first base, adding to his versatility and making him the most dangerous of the Dodgers’ several multi-position weapons.

Trout was himself hampered by a late-season injury, as he didn’t play after September 7 due to a foot injury that required minor surgery.  Still, that didn’t stop the Angels superstar from winning the third AL MVP Award of what is already one of the great careers in baseball history.  Trout hit a career-best 45 homers while also batting .291/.438/.645 over 600 PA — his on-base percentage led the majors, while his slugging percentage and OPS led the American League.  Trout also sat atop the fWAR leaderboard (8.6) while finishing third in bWAR (8.3).

It was a narrow victory for Trout over Astros infielder Alex Bregman, as the two players finished in the top two spots on all 30 ballots, with Trout holding the 17-13 edge in first-place votes.  Bregman supporters undoubtedly pointed to the fact that Bregman hit .296/.423/.592 with 41 homers and finished second in both fWAR (8.5) and bWAR (8.4), while also playing in 156 games for a first-place team while Trout’s Angels again missed the postseason.  The American League West had a clean sweep on the top three, as Athletics shortstop Marcus Semien finished third in the balloting (22 third-place votes).

The award continues Trout’s astonishing track record in AL MVP voting, as he now has three wins, four runners-up, and a fourth place (in an injury-shortened 2017) over his eight full seasons as a Major League player.  Trout becomes just the tenth player in MLB history to win at least three MVP Awards, and since he is showing no signs of slowing down at age 28, he has to be considered a threat to catch or surpass the only player with four or more MVP trophies — seven-time NL MVP Barry Bonds.

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Draft Retrospection: Dodgers Steal A Superstar

By Connor Byrne | May 28, 2019 at 9:04pm CDT

It was June 2013, six years ago, that the Dodgers secured one of the greatest draft steals in recent memory. In the fourth round, with the 124th overall pick, the Dodgers chose an Arizona high school first baseman/pitcher named Cody Bellinger. Although Bellinger’s the son of a former big leaguer, ex-Yankees and Angels infielder/outfielder Clay Bellinger, that didn’t make him a slam dunk to turn into a contributor at the MLB level.

Scouts were somewhat bullish on Bellinger at the time of his drafting, though, with some likening him to former major league first baseman Adam LaRoche (via Baseball America). Although LaRoche had a better and longer career than most, it’s obvious Bellinger has blown by him two-plus seasons into his career. In fact, Bellinger already has a superior lifetime fWAR to LaRoche (11.9 to 11.5) despite having amassed almost 5,000 fewer plate appearances.

Even though he didn’t come off the board near the very top of his draft class, Bellinger developed into one of the game’s 100 best prospects and immediately made good on the hype in the bigs. Los Angeles promoted Bellinger in April 2017, a season in which he saw extensive action at two positions – first base and left field – and wound up taking home NL Rookie of the Year honors.

Bellinger slashed .267/.352/.581 (138 wRC+) in his inaugural season, smacked the majors’ fifth-most home runs (39) and stole 10 bases. While Bellinger wasn’t as effective in 2018, he still recorded a solidly above-average line of .260/.343/.470 (120 wRC+) with another 25 homers and 14 steals.

Had the 23-year-old Bellinger showed up this season and been the same type of producer he was in 2018, the Dodgers likely would have been satisfied. Instead, through two months, he has looked like a bona fide superstar and the No. 1 challenger to reigning NL MVP Christian Yelich. With an astounding .363/.469/.761 slash, Bellinger easily ranks first in wRC+ (216), outpacing the second-place Yelich (188) by 28 points and baseball deity Mike Trout (172) by 44. Yelich does have a two-home run lead on Bellinger (21-19), but the latter has clearly been the more valuable player by Wins Above Replacement (5.2 rWAR/4.3 fWAR to 2.9/3.0).

Are Bellinger’s otherworldly offensive numbers sustainable? Perhaps not, as it’s hard to keep up a 1.200-plus OPS all season unless you’re Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Rogers Horsnby, Jimmie Foxx or another legend along those lines. But the strides Bellinger has made are very real. He has slashed his strikeout rate to 13.8 percent, down 10.1 percent from 2018, while increasing his walk rate from 10.9 to 14.3. He’s also hitting way more line drives and far fewer ground balls, making much more contact, whiffing less and chasing fewer out-of-zone pitches than he did in previous years. Meanwhile, Statcast credits the lefty-swinging Bellinger with the game’s top-ranked expected weighted on-base average (.504) – which is somehow better than his .500 real wOBA.

Adding to Bellinger’s appeal, he’s hardly an offense-only player. While it’s tough to get too exited about two months of defensive data, it’s similarly difficult not to raise eyebrows over his fielding numbers. In 46 games in right field this season, Bellinger has already put up 12 Defensive Runs Saved and a 4.9 Ultimate Zone Rating. He ranks top three among all outfielders in those categories. As Mark Simon of Sports Info Solutions noted last week, Bellinger’s left arm has been his greatest asset in the field. He fired the cannon on multiple occasions Sunday to stonewall Mets base runners.

With this year’s draft nearing, Bellinger’s rise is an important one to keep in mind. Aside from Cubs great Kris Bryant and arguably the Yankees’ Aaron Judge, Bellinger has outdone every first-round pick from his draft class. They each went anywhere from 91 to 123 choices before Bellinger, but he may soon follow Bryant in becoming the class’ second MVP. More importantly for the Dodgers, who continue to fire on all cylinders, the player they once used a mere fourth-rounder on could end up as the face of a World Series winner as early as this season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Los Angeles Dodgers MLBTR Originals Cody Bellinger

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NL West Notes: Padres, Giants, Bellinger, Bettis, McFarland

By Jeff Todd | April 16, 2019 at 8:26am CDT

We’re all wondering how MLB’s decision to axe the August trade period will influence the way the in-season trade market unfolds. An even bigger rush at the end of July is one obvious possibility; perhaps also there’ll be an increase in early-season trade activity. It has long been fairly rare for significant assets to be moved before well in advance of the trade deadline. The Padres are now reaping the rewards of their decision to market assets early back in 2016, as MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell wrote recently. Nabbing Fernando Tatis Jr. was a nifty trick, of course. As Cassavell writes, both teams were intrigued by his obvious physical talent. The Friars able to pry him loose from the pitching-needy White Sox in part because he simply hadn’t yet appeared in game action. After a productive draft, the club targeted pop-up prospect Chris Paddack, gaining his rights when the Marlins couldn’t wait to secure the services of Fernando Rodney. Interestingly, as Cassavell explains, the Padres’ other notable haul of talent that summer came in the June draft. The club wielded a multitude of picks that year because it chose not to sell the prior summer, instead securing draft compensation for departing free agents Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy.

More from the NL West:

  • It’s interesting to consider that prior San Diego mid-season sell-off in relation to this year’s Giants club. If any team could be in position to own the early-summer market, it’s a San Francisco outfit that’s laden with veteran pitching and largely unburdened of immediate expectations to compete. The club’s bullpen has been outstanding in the early going while the rotation has seen solid openings from several elder statesmen. Nearly every member of the staff could be a plausible trade chip; indeed, the Giants have a collection of arms that could suit just about any rival’s needs. In the rotation, postseason hero Madison Bumgarner, long-time workhorse Jeff Samardzija, steady lefty Derek Holland, and higher-ceiling southpaw Drew Pomeranz. On the relief side, southpaw Will Smith continues to pitch like a relief ace, while fellow lefty Tony Watson remains a quality situational asset. Righties Sam Dyson and Mark Melancon are trending up and have ample late-inning experience, while Nick Vincent is an underrated middle relief piece. For Giants fans wondering about the future under president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, the most fascinating pitcher of all may be Trevor Gott, a waiver claimee who’s suddenly generating swinging strikes at a near-elite level (14.7%) after ramping up the use of a four-seam fastball he introduced last season. With pitching problems already rising up for several contenders, Zaidi and co. could be in position for a memorable summer of swapping.
  • Star Dodgers first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger exited last night’s game early after being hit by a pitch near his right knee. As MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick reports, x-rays were negative and it seems that Bellinger has escaped any kind of serious injury. The young slugger, who has been on a tear to open the season, may still need some time to recuperate and receive treatment. But there’s no indication that a trip to the IL will be necessary.
  • The Rockies have bumped veteran right-hander Chad Bettis to the bullpen, as Nick Groke of The Athletic was among those to tweet. It seems likely his new role will dovetail with the return of Tyler Anderson from a stint on the injured list. Soon to turn 30, Bettis was also bumped to the pen for seven outings last year, though he still took twenty starts. He has struggled to an 8.78 ERA over his first 13 1/3 innings of the 2019 campaign, with eight walks to go with nine strikeouts and twenty base hits already on the ledger. Bettis is earning $3.35MM this year in advance of a final season of arbitration eligibility. In other news out of Colorado, the club seems likely to place outfielder Noel Cuevas on the 10-day injured list after he came down with a quad strain, manager Bud Black told reporters including Kyle Newman of the Denver Post (via Twitter).
  • Lefty T.J. McFarland is on the mend for the Diamondbacks, MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert reports. He’ll launch a rehab effort tomorrow as he seeks to finish off a return from a bout of shoulder inflammation. Once he’s deemed ready, McFarland will join Andrew Chafin as a southpaw combo in the D-Backs pen. The 29-year-old produced strong results last year after several rough seasons, working to a 2.00 ERA over 72 frames. Though he carried a typically uninspiring blend of 5.3 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9, McFarland also posted an eye-popping 67.9% groundball rate.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Colorado Rockies Los Angeles Dodgers San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants Chad Bettis Cody Bellinger T.J. McFarland

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Indians Still Discussing Potential Corey Kluber Trades

By Jeff Todd | December 22, 2018 at 6:31pm CDT

DEC. 22: The Dodgers remain in talks with the Indians regarding Kluber, Morosi reports. LA isn’t open to trading slugger Cody Bellinger for Kluber, though it’s “willing to discuss” young outfelder Alex Verdugo, per Morosi. Regardless, it’s unlikely a Kluber deal will come together with the Dodgers or anyone else prior to Christmas, Morosi tweets.

DEC. 19: The Indians are still holding discussions with rival organizations about star right-hander Corey Kluber, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter links). In particular, it seems the Reds are actively engaged with the Cleveland brass.

Needless to say, this isn’t the first we’ve heard of the Indians dangling a significant pitchers. Kluber and teammate Trevor Bauer have been in the rumor mill for much of the offseason.

Still, it’s significant to learn of ongoing talks, particularly since little has emerged on that front in the past weeks. The Indians’ strategy had been uncertain following a pair of contract-swapping moves — see here and here — that significantly reduced the team’s 2018 payroll. Easing the financial commitments, while staying ahead of an underwhelming pack in the AL Central, had been the seeming driving force behind the concept of dangling Kluber in the first place.

No doubt salary considerations will remain important, but the Indians surely have less pressure to pare costs. Parting with Kluber (or Bauer) will not be undertaken lightly. That explains the fact that, per Morosi, the Indians have asked about top Reds prospects Nick Senzel and Taylor Trammell in trade talks. Morosi himself had previously cast doubt on the possibility of a match between these clubs. The Reds, no doubt, are exceedingly hesitant to give up either of those two key young assets, though landing a controlled ace will necessarily sting.

A variety of other ballclubs remain engaged on Kluber, presumably. Morosi cites the Dodgers, Brewers, and Phillies as being “among the teams that have shown interest,” though it’s not clear whether that’s intended as an update on the current state of affairs or a glance back at the recent slate of rumors.

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Cincinnati Reds Cleveland Guardians Los Angeles Dodgers Milwaukee Brewers Philadelphia Phillies Alex Verdugo Cody Bellinger Corey Kluber Nick Senzel Taylor Trammell

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Dodgers, Red Sox Set World Series Rosters

By TC Zencka | October 23, 2018 at 10:55am CDT

With the World Series set to kick off tonight, both teams have announced changes to their 25-man rosters.

For the Dodgers, left-handed reliever Scott Alexander replaces Caleb Ferguson, the team announced. Alexander will be LA’s third left-handed option out of the pen, along with 22-year-old Julio Urias and regular season starter Alex Wood. The Dodgers have shuffled between Urias, Ferguson and Alexander as the third left-hander in the pen this postseason, with each player making the roster for two of the three playoff rounds. 

Of the three, the 21-year-old Ferguson is the least seasoned, whereas Alexander profiles most-closely to a left-handed specialist – though none have drastic platoon splits. Still, it’s likely Alexander spent the weekend going over the scouting reports of Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers, Mitch Moreland and Jackie Bradley Jr. 

For the Red Sox, they’ve also made a change to their bullpen. The team announced the addition of lefty Drew Pomeranz over right-handed options Brandon Workman or Steven Wright. It’s a bit of a surprising move given Pomeranz hasn’t pitched since September 30th. Conversely, Wright is recovering from left knee issues, while Workman was shelled in his three October appearances. Workman appeared twice in the ALDS and and once in the ALCS, pitching one third of an inning each time, surrendering a total five earned runs and seven hits in his one total inning of work.

You have to figure the Red Sox believe Pomeranz is closer to his 2017 self (137 ERA+) than his 2018 self (72 ERA+). One glimmer of hope in Pomeranz’s disastrous 2018 campaign: all 12 HRs surrendered this season were vs. right-handed hitters. For his career, lefties have hit .224/.305/.313 against Pomeranz, whereas righties have hit .247/.330/.420. Should Chris Sale or David Price fail to go deep into games, Boston will have the option of deploying Pomeranz as a long-man, or as a lefty specialist to counter Max Muncy, Joc Pederson and/or NLCS MVP Cody Bellinger. 

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Boston Red Sox Los Angeles Dodgers Newsstand Alex Wood Brandon Workman Caleb Ferguson Cody Bellinger Drew Pomeranz Jackie Bradley Jr. Joc Pederson Julio Urias Max Muncy Rafael Devers Scott Alexander Steven Wright

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Quick Hits: Hanley, Trumbo, Bellinger, Peavy, Red Sox, Draft

By Mark Polishuk | June 3, 2018 at 11:31pm CDT

Hanley Ramirez is getting interest from “multiple teams” since officially becoming a free agent, the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo tweets.  It isn’t any surprise that the veteran slugger is drawing some attention, particularly since he’d be available at a prorated minimum salary while the Red Sox cover the approximately $14.5MM remaining on Ramirez’s contract.  Considering the low price tag, any number of teams could have interest — consider that the Orioles, who are already loaded with first base/DH candidates, have already been linked to Ramirez.  It was only weeks ago that Ramirez was one of the league’s hottest hitters (posting a .330/.400/.474 slash line over 110 plate appearances in March and April) before he fell into a deep slump that led to his release from the Sox.

Some more from around the baseball world…

  • Last winter, the Orioles “checked on” any trade interest in Mark Trumbo, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko reports.  It isn’t stated how much interest existed, though one can imagine it was a pretty thin market, given that Trumbo was coming off a rough 2017 season and is owed $26MM in 2018-19.  Trumbo has a decent .292/.320/.427 slash line over 100 PA, though he has only two homers and missed all of April recovering from a quad strain.  The O’s seem primed to be deadline sellers, though they’d likely have to eat some money to facilitate a Trumbo deal.  (Incidentally, he also has a seven-team no-trade clause.)
  • The slumping Cody Bellinger hasn’t started two of the Dodgers’ last three games, as manager Dave Roberts talked to reporters (including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register) about how the reigning NL Rookie Of The Year is trying to adjust to being pitched differently as well as some bad breaks at the plate.  “He’s doing everything right as far as the preparation.  The results just haven’t been there,” Roberts said.  “So as a young player, he’s constantly trying to make adjustments. You get to a point where you wonder if you’re ever going to get a hit. All players go through that at some point in time.”  Roberts wasn’t ready to say that a brief minor league stint might eventually be in the cards for Bellinger, who is hitting only .225/.298/.413 with eight homers over his first 238 plate appearances.
  • In the latest on Jake Peavy’s comeback attempt, the veteran righty will hold a private workout for teams sometime in June, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports.  After sitting out the 2017 season to deal with personal issues, Peavy had been working out and planning to have a showcase in early May, though he said a few weeks ago that he wanted to consult with his children before deciding on a comeback.
  • Also from Cafardo’s piece, he notes that tomorrow’s amateur draft carries particular import for a Red Sox farm system that has been thinned out by trades in recent years.  Between those losses, Jay Groome’s Tommy John surgery and Michael Chavis’ PED suspension, Boston doesn’t seem to have enough young trade chips to make a splash at the deadline.  “Let me put it this way, there isn’t anyone in their farm system that a team would say, ’I have to have that guy.’ Not saying they don’t have anything to make a deal, but they don’t have enough to make a major deal,” one AL scout tells Cafardo.  Of course, it remains to see if the Sox will necessarily be looking for a blockbuster upgrade given that the roster is already in very good shape and cruising towards a postseason berth.
  • With the first round of the draft less than 24 hours away, Baseball America has released its latest mock draft of the first 35 picks.  Auburn right-hander Casey Mize is still seen as the favorite to go to the Tigers with the first overall pick, with Mize unlikely to fall beyond the Giants (at the No. 2 pick) if Detroit goes go in another direction.  Interestingly, Baseball America’s executive editor JJ Cooper (Twitter link) hears from multiple sources that “it is more likely now than it was any time up to now” that the top three picks will be Georgia Tech catcher Joey Bart (Tigers), California high schooler Cole Winn (Giants) and then Mize to the Phillies third overall.  Still, there is “only a small chance” of this scenario playing out, and the likeliest scenario is still Mize going to the Tigers.
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2018 Amateur Draft Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Los Angeles Dodgers Cody Bellinger Hanley Ramirez Jake Peavy Mark Trumbo

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Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger Win Rookie Of The Year Awards

By Jeff Todd | November 13, 2017 at 7:54pm CDT

In news that won’t come as a surprise to many, Aaron Judge of the Yankees and Cody Bellinger of the Dodgers were named the rookies of the year in the American League and National League, respectively. Each received unanimous support from the voting members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.

Andrew Benintendi of the Red Sox and Trey Mancini of the Orioles followed Judge in the A.L. ROY voting. The other finalists for the N.L. award were the Pirates’ Josh Bell and Cardinals’ Paul DeJong.

Judge was as obvious a victor as you’ll ever see. The 25-year-old slugger swatted 52 home runs and posted a .284/.422/.627 batting line in 678 trips to the plate. That output was good enough to make him a finalist for the MVP award — the results haven’t yet been tabulated — and a shoe-in to be chosen as the top rookie.

Over on the National League side, Bellinger was an easy choice for the hardwear after 548 plate appearances of .267/.352/.581 hitting to go with 39 dingers and ten steals. A 2013 fourth-round draftee, Bellinger only turned 22 in mid-July and opened the season at Triple-A, adding to the impressiveness of his accomplishment.

Because he did not start the season in the big leagues, Bellinger will fall shy of a full season of MLB service. That means he won’t reach arbitration until 2020 (as a Super Two) and will be controlled via the arb process through 2023. Judge had already spent some time in the majors in 2016, so he’s set to reach the open market a year earlier, though he also won’t see an arbitration pay bump until 2020.

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Los Angeles Dodgers New York Mets Aaron Judge Cody Bellinger

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Quick Hits: Ziegler, Young, Buehler, Dodgers

By Mark Polishuk | August 26, 2017 at 5:06pm CDT

Here’s the latest from around baseball…

  • “It appears” as if Marlins closer Brad Ziegler has cleared August trade waivers, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes.  This means that Miami would be free to deal Ziegler to any team.  Ziegler is owed roughly $1.25MM remaining this season and $9MM in 2018, and prior to the trade deadline, the Marlins were reportedly willing to eat a large portion of that contract.  Ziegler, however, has only allowed runs in two of his last 22 appearances and he has pitched especially well since taking over as Miami’s closer.  Given that the Fish are now within striking distance of an NL wild card berth, it also isn’t clear if the team is still in selling mode.
  • Also from Cafardo’s piece, Chris Young is hopeful of re-signing with the Red Sox this winter but he implies there hasn’t been much talk about an extension.  “It’s been a good relationship but I’m not sure about their plans,” Young said.  The veteran outfielder is in the final year of a two-year, $13MM deal with Boston signed in the 2015-16 offseason, and after a strong 2016 season, Young has actually delivered slightly below-replacement level production (-0.2. fWAR) thanks to an offensive and defensive dropoff.  Young has long been known as a lefty-masher, though he has only a .614 OPS against southpaws this year (though, curiously, an .833 OPS against righties).  Young turns 34 in September but will probably get consideration from the Red Sox and several other teams for a backup or platoon outfield role.
  • Walker Buehler’s last six appearances for Triple-A Oklahoma City have come as a relief pitcher, adding to the widely-held speculation that the top Dodgers prospect will make his big league debut in September to help the team’s bullpen down the stretch (and perhaps in the postseason).  Manager Dave Roberts, however, tells Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times and other reporters that the team that Walker’s future has yet to be determined.  “He’s transitioning to this new role.  We’re very sensitive to having guys here who fit a certain role and have a purpose, and we haven’t made that decision with Walker,” Roberts said.
  • From that same DiGiovanna piece, Cody Bellinger reported “no pain” in his sprained right ankle after going through workouts and batting practice.  The star rookie’s injury was thought to be mild when he hit the DL on last Tuesday (with a back-dated placement to August 20), and Bellinger indeed looks on pace to return when first eligible on Wednesday.  In other Dodgers injury news, Brandon McCarthy made his first rehab start on Friday as he looks to return from a month-long DL stint due to a blister problem.  According to Roberts, McCarthy is still “multiple rehab starts” away from returning to the Dodgers rotation.
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Boston Red Sox Los Angeles Dodgers Miami Marlins Brad Ziegler Brandon McCarthy Chris B. Young Cody Bellinger Walker Buehler

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