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Eduardo Rodriguez

Diamondbacks A Finalist For Eduardo Rodriguez

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MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reported this evening that the Diamondbacks have had “advanced discussions” with left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez. Morosi notes that no deal has been finalized to this point, but Arizona is considered a finalist for the southpaw. The report comes on the heels of news earlier today that Rodriguez had narrowed his possible destination down to two teams. A report from Ken Rosenthal and C. Trent Rosencrans of The Athletic initially suggested that the other finalist for Rodriguez’s services was the Cincinnati Reds, though Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports that the Reds are not a finalist for Rodriguez’s services. Rosenthal and Rosencrans have since retracted the report.

For the reigning NL champions, Rodriguez would provide a third front-of-the-rotation caliber arm to pair with 2023 NL Cy Young award finalist Zac Gallen and veteran right-hander Merrill Kelly. Despite excellent performances from the club’s top two arms, who combined for a 3.39 ERA across 64 starts, the club’s overall rotation ranked just 21st in the majors last season with a 4.67 ERA. That’s thanks to a dearth of quality options behind Gallen and Kelly. Arizona relied on the likes of Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson, and Zach Davies in the rotation for much of the year, each of whom posted ERAs north of 5.00.

Adding Rodriguez to the mix should help the club’s run prevention efforts considerably. The 30-year-old southpaw enjoyed a career year in 2023 as a member of the Tigers, finishing the season with a 3.30 ERA and 3.66 FIP across 152 2/3 innings of work while striking out 23% of batters faced against a walk rate of just 7.7%. Those strong overall numbers on the season well may have been even stronger had Rodriguez managed to stay healthy all season, as the lefty cruised to a 2.13 ERA and a 25.5% strikeout rate across his first eleven starts of the season.

Unfortunately, Rodriguez subsequently suffered a ruptured pulley tendon at the end of May that wound up sidelining him for the entire month of June. Upon returning in early July, Rodriguez struggled to match his excellent first half performance. The southpaw delivered decent results, with a 4.24 ERA and 4.08 FIP over his final 85 frames, though his strikeout rate dipped to just 21.2% while his walk rate climbed to 8.9%. Fortunately, Rodriguez bounced back down the stretch to post a solid 3.60 ERA in September. Assuming the left-hander is fully healthy entering the 2024 campaign, he would be a strong addition to most any rotation in the majors.

Eduardo Rodriguez Narrows Decision To Two Teams

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Free agent left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez has been at the Winter Meetings in Nashville this week, where he’s held sitdowns with multiple interested clubs. It seems that slate of meetings will soon produce a deal, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that Rodriguez has narrowed his possibilities to two teams and will decide between that pair of offers by tomorrow.

Beyond the fact that he’s known to have been in Nashville to meet with clubs, it’s been a relatively quiet offseason on the Rodriguez front. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reported last month that any geographic preferences that may have been in place at the trade deadline are now out the window, as the left-hander has expressed an openness to pitching anywhere.

Logically speaking, teams that are deep into pursuits of Shohei Ohtani and/or Yoshinobu Yamamoto might not want to make a commitment of this size before either of those names comes off the board. That’s largely speculative, to be clear, although SNY’s Andy Martino reported this morning that the Mets haven’t even shown interest in Rodriguez at or prior to the Winter Meetings — largely for that specific reason; they’ve been focused squarely on Yamamoto to this point. That certainly seems to take them out of play as one of the two apparent finalists.

Rodriguez, 31 in April, opted out of the final three years and $49MM on his contract with the Tigers at the beginning of the offseason. There’s been no indication that a return is off the table, even after Detroit’s signing of veteran righty Kenta Maeda to a two-year contract. Tigers president of baseball ops Scott Harris was clear after that agreement that the Tigers remain in the market for starting pitching. Whether that includes putting forth a lengthier and larger commitment than the one from which Rodriguez just opted out isn’t clear, although it bears mentioning that Rodriguez was signed by Harris’ predecessor, Al Avila, and not the current Detroit front office regime.

The 2023 season was the second of a five-year, $77MM deal that had mixed results. Rodriguez was away from the Tigers for an extended period during year one of the contract, citing a marital issue, and posted a 4.05 ERA with diminished strikeout numbers when on the field. He bounced back early in 2023 and was one of the American League’s best pitchers for much of the first half. From April 12 through May 28, Rodriguez rattled off nine starts (57 1/3 innings) with a 1.40 ERA, 27.7% strikeout rate and 5.5% walk rate.

A ruptured pulley tendon in his pitching hand sent Rodriguez to the injured list from late May through early July, and he wasn’t as sharp upon his return. The lefty improved as the summer wore on, but his 4.24 ERA in 85 innings post-injury list was decidedly less intriguing than his pre-injury output.

Overall, Rodriguez still finished out the season with 152 2/3 innings of 3.30 ERA ball, adding in a 23% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate, 41% ground-ball rate and 0.88 HR/9. MLBTR ranked Rodriguez 11th on our annual Top 50 free agent rankings and predicted a four-year, $82MM deal for the veteran southpaw.

East Notes: Nationals, Mets, Rays

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The Nationals finished the 2023 season with a 71-91 record that left them as one of the worst teams in the National League, even as it represented a substantial improvement over the club’s 107-loss 2022 campaign. While the club has sat out the top of the free agent market during the recent seasons of their rebuild, it seems that may not be the case this offseason as the club looks to upgrade at the infield corners and at DH, per TalkNats. The club has already been linked to a reunion with third baseman Jeimer Candelario, who was posting career-best numbers with the Nats prior to being dealt to the Cubs at the trade deadline. The report suggests that the club has interest in first baseman Rhys Hoskins and outfield/DH slugger Jorge Soler in addition to Candelario. The report goes on to indicate that Washington has been “very active” in the starting pitching market to this point in the offseason, though it does not connect any specific names to the club.

The rumored targets make sense for the Nationals. The club has a major hole at third base given that former top prospect Carter Kieboom has failed to establish himself the big league level. Kieboom’s .207/.266/.368 slash line (70 wRC+) in 2023 was largely in line with his career numbers of .199/.297/.301 (65 wRC+), and Candelario or another third base addition would almost certainly represent a significant upgrade over the 26-year-old. Meanwhile, an addition at first base or DH could help the club improve an offense that currently figures to use journeyman Joey Meneses at one position without an established starter at the other.

As for the rotation, the club has several interesting young arms such as Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore that they figure to prioritize developing, with veterans such as Patrick Corbin and Trevor Williams who can reliably eat innings. That being said, the Nationals’ starting staff posted a combined 5.02 ERA last season, the sixth-worst figure in the majors. What’s more, the club’s 5.30 FIP in the rotation was better than only the lowly Rockies, while their starting staff combined for just 4.9 fWAR, better than only Colorado and Oakland. That leaves plenty of room for improvement if the club decides to add even a lower-level free agent such as Matthew Boyd or Frankie Montas to its rotation, to say nothing of a more impactful addition.

More from around MLB’s East divisions…

  • While the Mets have reportedly shifted their focus away from superstar free agent Shohei Ohtani, Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests that the club is still looking at potential impact additions this offseason. They’ve long been connected to top-of-the-market arm Yoshinobu Yamamoto as they explore potential rotation upgrades, and Heyman adds that the Mets are looking into “nearly every available frontline starter” in addition to Yamamoto, including southpaws Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Eduardo Rodriguez. While Heyman notes the club is unlikely to land a rental arm such as Tyler Glasnow or Shane Bieber on the trade market, he does suggest the club’s interest in rotation upgrades extends to White Sox starter Dylan Cease, who is under team control for the next two seasons and has seen plenty of trade buzz this offseason. Rotation upgrades make plenty of sense for New York after the club shipped out veteran aces Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer at the trade deadline over the summer, leaving Kodai Senga, Jose Quintana, and newly-signed righty Luis Severino as the club’s only rotation locks entering 2024.
  • The Rays have interest in a reunion with right-hander Cooper Criswell even after non-tendering him last month, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Criswell, 27, made his big league debut as a member of the Angels in 2021 with a one-game cup of coffee that lasted just 1 1/3 innings. He spent the past two seasons as a member of the Rays, with a 5.45 ERA and 5.00 FIP in 36 1/3 innings of work across 11 appearances. While those numbers are certainly nothing to write home about, Criswell’s ability to go multiple innings and 46.8% career groundball rate at the big league level could make him a worthwhile depth addition for a Rays club that relied on 40 different pitchers throughout the 2023 campaign.

Tigers Notes: Rodriguez, Mize, Maton, Baddoo

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The Tigers face the potential loss of Eduardo Rodriguez, who officially opted out of his contract on Saturday. The move was entirely unsurprising with the left-hander in good position to land a much better deal than the three years and $49MM that remained.

MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweeted shortly before Rodriguez opted out that his camp had continued discussions with the Tigers about potentially reworking his contract. At this week’s GM Meetings, Detroit president of baseball operations Scott Harris confirmed that report but seemed to downplay the chance of re-signing Rodriguez now that he has reached free agency.

The Tigers’ front office leader told reporters the club’s valuation of the pitcher is “locked in” after two seasons in the Motor City (relayed by Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press). Asked whether the team would stay in contact with Rodriguez’s camp, Harris referenced rules prohibiting him from commenting on specific free agents before adding he “can wish him the best of luck in free agency.”

Should Rodriguez sign elsewhere, it stands to reason the Tigers would bring in a starter from outside the organization. Tarik Skubal looked like a top-flight starter when he returned from flexor surgery, but the rest of the rotation has a relatively brief track record at the MLB level. Reese Olson and Sawyer Gipson-Long showed promise as rookies. Matt Manning pitched to a 3.58 ERA but was limited to 15 starts by separate foot fractures. Former first overall pick Casey Mize missed the entire 2023 season recovering from June ’22 Tommy John surgery.

Detroit announced this evening that Mize has been throwing bullpen sessions without issue and is expected to have a normal offseason. The same can’t be said for infielder Nick Maton, who recently underwent an arthroscopic procedure to address a left knee problem. The Tigers haven’t indicated whether the issue could linger into Spring Training, noting only that Maton is currently in post-operation rehab. Acquired from the Phillies in last offseason’s Gregory Soto deal, the left-handed hitter ran a .173/.288/.305 line over 93 games during his first season as a Tiger.

In one other piece of roster news, Harris addressed the future of corner outfielder Akil Baddoo. The former Rule 5 draftee seemed a potential non-tender candidate, particularly after the club brought in Mark Canha to join Riley Greene and Parker Meadows in the outfield mix. Harris implied that Baddoo would be tendered a contract, telling the media (including Chris McCosky of the Detroit News) that the outfielder “still very much fits in” their plans. Baddoo, who hit .218/.310/.372 this past season, is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $1.7MM salary as a Super Two qualifier.

Eduardo Rodriguez Opts Out Of Tigers Contract

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Left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez is returning to free agency, as the New York Post’s Jon Heyman (X link) reports that Rodriguez has opted out of the last three years and $49MM on his contract with the Tigers.

Today was the deadline for E-Rod to enact his opt-out clause, and it has long seemed like the southpaw would indeed take the opportunity to again test the market.  Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris said in early October that the club was first waiting on Rodriguez’s opt-out decision before discussing an extension, yet MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reported yesterday that the two sides were having some level of talks “about potentially restructuring his contract.”

The nature of these discussions might not be known now that Rodriguez has opted out, though the Tigers still hold exclusive negotiating rights with the lefty until Monday.  It would seem like a longshot if a new deal did come together with Rodriguez so close to being able to speak with other teams, yet he did express his love of playing in Detroit in August after E-Rod used his 10-team no-trade clause to reject a proposed deal to the Dodgers.

Rodriguez signed a five-year, $77MM deal during the 2021-22 offseason, as the Tigers splurged on both E-Rod and Javier Baez as a way of signalling that the team was ready to contend after a rebuilding period.  Instead, the Tigers stumbled to a 66-96 record in 2022, due to a punchless offense and a multitude of pitching injuries.  Rodriguez was hit by the injury bug in the form of a ribcage sprain, but his extended absence during the middle of the 2022 campaign was due to a family-related personal matter.  The Tigers put Rodriguez on the restricted list for most of that absence, and he ended up tossing only 91 innings (with a 4.05 ERA).

A pulley rupture in his left index finger put E-Rod on the injured list for a little over five weeks this season, but by and large, 2023 was a more normal year for the left-hander.  Rodriguez posted a 3.30 ERA over 152 2/3 innings, with a less-flattering 4.26 SIERA and a set of Statcast metrics that generally landed either slightly above or slightly below league averages.

It makes for an interesting comparison to Rodriguez’s last foray into free agency, when he landed that $77MM deal on the strength of some good underlying metrics, even though he had a 4.74 ERA over 157 2/3 frames for the Red Sox in 2021.  Without a qualifying offer impacting his market this time around, Rodriguez shouldn’t have much issue topping three years and $49MM, and another five-year pact seems very plausible since he doesn’t turn 31 until April.

However, geography might be a bit of a limiting factor for Rodriguez.  Staying close to his family on the East Coast was reportedly a reason E-Rod vetoed the trade to the Dodgers, so if he wasn’t willing to head west for just the remainder of the 2023 season, it’s probably not too likely that he’d join a team in the western U.S. for a longer term.  These feelings could potentially change once Rodriguez and his representatives fully gauge the market, yet for now, it would appear as though clubs in the east or more central (like Detroit) parts of the baseball world might have an advantage.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

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The World Series will be completed in less than a week, which means the offseason is imminent. Almost right away, some key decisions will have to be made. Within five days of the World Series ending, contract options will need to be either exercised or declined and clubs will also have to choose whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received a QO before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

MLBTR is taking a look at the candidates, with one post focusing on the position players and this one looking at the pitchers.

No-Doubters

These five are slam dunks to receive and reject the qualifying offer. Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery, but he is still expected to hit and will perhaps return to the mound in 2025. As one of the best hitters in baseball and the potential for two-way contributions down the road, he’s in line for a record-setting contract. Nola is coming off a down season relative to his own standards but has an excellent track record that will put him in line for a nine-figure deal even with the QO attached. Gray’s total earning power will be capped somewhat by the fact that he turns 34 in a week but his excellent work in 2023 should be able to get him a new deal around $20MM per year over multiple seasons. Snell just wrapped up an excellent campaign, finishing with a 2.25 ERA that could see him net a second career Cy Young award. That sets him up for a huge payday even after rejecting the QO. Hader has been one of the best relievers in the game for a long time and could challenge Edwin Díaz for the biggest contract ever for a reliever.

Special Case

Kershaw has been eligible for a qualifying offer in each of the past two offseasons but didn’t receive one. That wasn’t a reflection of his performance but a sign of respect. In each case, Kershaw went into the winter not knowing if he wanted to come back to the Dodgers, jump to his hometown Rangers or retire. The Dodgers decided both times not to issue him the QO so that he wouldn’t have to make a rushed decision at the beginning of the offseason. Since Kershaw is once again undecided on his future, it seems fair to expect that the Dodgers will decline to extend the QO, though Kershaw would warrant one in a vacuum.

Possible Candidates

Lugo spent most of his career working out of the bullpen but hit free agency a year ago and drew plenty of interest as a starter. The Padres eventually brought him aboard via a two-year deal with a $15MM guarantee and incentives, as well as an opt-out after the first season.

The righty made the most of the opportunity, making 26 starts and logging 146 1/3 innings with a 3.57 earned run average. He stuck out 23.2% of batters faced, walked 6% and kept the ball on the ground at a 45.2% clip. There were some concerns about Lugo’s ability to hold up over a full season, both since he hadn’t had that kind of workload before and because he had a slight tear of his UCL in 2017 that wasn’t surgically addressed. But in 2023, Lugo made just one trip to the injured list, missing just over a month due to a calf strain.

Now that Lugo has proof of concept as a starter, he should have greater earning power than he did a year ago, even though he’s about to turn 34. Turning down the one year and $7.5MM left on his deal should be an easy call, but then the Padres will have a more difficult choice. It would be hard for Lugo to turn down a 2024 salary more than twice what he made in the prior season, so there would be a decent chance he accepts a QO. With the club reportedly looking to cut payroll, they may not want to take that chance.

Maeda has had his ups and downs in recent years but is heading into free agency with some momentum. He posted a 2.70 ERA in 2020 but then that figure jumped to 4.66 in 2021 before he underwent internal brace surgery on his elbow. He missed all of 2022 and then struggled early in 2023. In his fourth start of the season, he was shelled by the Yankees, allowing 10 earned runs in three innings. He was then placed on the injured list with a triceps strain while sporting an ERA of 9.00 for the year.

But after getting healthy, his results were much better. He was activated from the IL in late June and made 17 more appearances the rest of the way. He tossed 88 1/3 innings with a 3.36 ERA, 29% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. Though his ERA for the whole year finished at 4.23, it seems fair to conclude that the early-season injury inflated that number.

The righty has never had a massive salary locked in. When he initially came over from Japan, the Dodgers signed him to an incentive-laden deal that guaranteed him $25MM over eight years. That came in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, $3MM salary each year and $6.5MM in incentives available each season based on games started and innings pitched. If he suddenly had a $20.5MM guarantee in front of him for his age-36 season, that would likely be very tempting.

The Twins aren’t one of the top payroll teams under normal circumstances and may need to cut back spending due to uncertainty around their TV revenues. They may not want to blow a huge chunk of their budget right at the beginning of the offseason, especially when their rotation is already in decent shape with Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and Louie Varland currently pencilled in.

Wacha had some strong seasons earlier in his career with the Cardinals, but injuries became an issue more recently. He settled for a $3MM guarantee while joining the Mets for 2020, then was limited to 34 mediocre innings in the shortened season. The Rays took a shot on him in 2021 with another $3MM guarantee and he stayed healthy enough to log 124 2/3 innings with a 5.05 ERA. That relatively healthy campaign was enough to get him a one-year, $7MM deal with the Red Sox for 2022, and he then tossed 127 1/3 innings for that club with a 3.23 ERA.

He lingered on the open market for a while last offseason but eventually landed a four-year, $26MM guarantee from the Padres with a layered option structure. After the 2023 World Series, the Friars will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, effectively a two-year, $32MM deal. If they decline, Wacha has a $6.5MM player option for 2024 and then $6MM player options for 2025 and 2026.

The righty is coming off another decent season. Though his shoulder landed him on the IL this year, just as it had in 2022 and 2020, he was able to make 24 starts and throw 134 1/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA. His 22.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate were both close to league average, though he may have benefitted from a .266 batting average on balls in play and 79.7% strand rate. His 3.89 FIP and 4.43 SIERA suggest his ERA might not be wholly sustainable.

As mentioned in the Lugo section above, the Padres are facing a budget crunch. Though they are likely pleased with Wacha’s results in 2023, would they want to give him a pay raise by triggering that option? If they pass on that, Wacha would likely turn down his player option and return to free agency. He would be eligible for a qualifying offer at that point, which would be a higher salary than the club option but on a shorter commitment. The Padres effectively have to decide between 1/20 or 2/32 or simply letting Wacha walk.

Long Shot

Some fans of the Yankees might shudder at the thought of the club bringing back Montas at a higher salary, but it’s not a completely crazy idea. Though he was hurt or ineffective from the moment he donned pinstripes, he’s not too far removed from some strong results. From 2019 to 2021, he posted an ERA of 3.51 over 336 innings pitched. In that time, he struck out 26.3% of batters faced, issued walks at a 7.3% clip and kept 43.7% of batted balls on the ground. Among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched in that time, that ERA ranked him 21st in the majors. Even in 2022, prior to the infamous trade, he was still quite good. He registered an ERA of 3.18 in his 19 starts for the A’s that year.

Players returning from injury absences can often still find themselves big salaries on short-term deals. Noah Syndergaard got one year and $21MM from the Angels after missing most of 2020 and 2021 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Corey Kluber got $11MM from the Yankees even though he was 35 years old and made just eight appearances over the two previous campaigns. James Paxton got $10MM from the Red Sox under similar circumstances.

The Yankees have a couple of long-term contracts in their rotation with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón. The latter hasn’t worked out well so far, with Rodón injured for much of 2023. The club needs rotation reinforcements with Michael King, Clarke Schmidt and Nestor Cortes pencilled into the back end, each of whom comes with some question marks. They could add another marquee free agent, but maybe they’d prefer to take a short-term flier on a player they have obviously liked for a long time, giving up four prospects to acquire him and Lou Trivino just over a year ago. They then agreed to a $7.5MM arbitration salary for 2023 even as questions about his shoulder lingered.

Though there’s an argument for the possibility, it ultimately seems like the odds are against this happening. The Montas trade has gone so poorly, both from an on-field perspective and a PR one, that it’s hard to envision the club doubling down. If Montas doesn’t receive the QO, he will likely be fielding one-year offers slightly below the $20.5MM salary range.

Ineligible

As mentioned up top, players are only eligible to receive the qualifying offer if they haven’t received one previously and also spent the entire year with just one MLB club. Rodriguez and Stroman, who can each opt out of their respective contracts, have each been issued a QO earlier in their career. Flaherty, Giolito and Montgomery were all traded midseason, which makes them ineligible as well. Players coming from other leagues aren’t eligible either, so Yamamoto and Imanaga won’t have the QO in play. For each of these pitchers, the lack of a QO helps their earning power since clubs won’t have to forfeit any draft picks to sign them.

Scott Harris, A.J. Hinch Discuss Tigers’ Offseason Plans

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Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris and manager A.J. Hinch addressed the media on Monday (including Evan Woodberry of MLive Media Group) to discuss the offseason ahead. Topics on the table included Eduardo Rodriguez and Javier Baez, each of whom has an opt-out after the 2023 season; Carson Kelly, who has a club option for 2024; and Austin Meadows and Spencer Turnbull, who will both be eligible for arbitration this winter. Harris also touched on how much the team plans to spend in free agency, while Hinch praised his coaching staff without promising that everyone would be back next season.

Rodriguez has three years and $49MM remaining on his contract, but he is likely to exercise his opt-out clause after the World Series. The lefty won’t turn 31 until next April, and he’s coming off a strong season in which he pitched to a 3.30 ERA in 26 starts. While he spent June on the injured list and wasn’t quite as imposing upon his return (4.24 ERA in 15 starts), he still looked like a solid mid-rotation pitcher throughout the second half of the season. That being the case, he should be able to command significantly more than $49MM this winter.

Speaking on Rodriguez, Harris said he isn’t planning to negotiate an extension with the veteran starter. The team will wait and see if he chooses to exercise his opt-out.

On the one hand, if the Tigers want Rodriguez back in the rotation next season, now would be the perfect time to discuss a new deal. The club has exclusive negotiating rights until he elects free agency, giving them a head start on other potential suitors. As a dependable left-handed starter, Rodriguez will certainly draw plenty of interest – especially because he is ineligible to receive the qualifying offer, having already received one in 2021. On the other hand, perhaps the team is hoping Rodriguez will decide not to exercise his opt-out after all. He chose to stay in Detroit at the trade deadline instead of accepting a trade to the Dodgers, citing a desire to stay closer to his family. It’s more than possible he’s content to stay in a location he likes and avoid the hassle of free agency altogether.

Harris also mentioned Báez, who has the chance to opt out of his contract after the season. The Tigers president isn’t planning to negotiate with the shortstop either, although that comes as less of a surprise. The two-time All-Star has four years and $98MM remaining on his deal, and coming off a season with an OPS below .600, he’s not going to beat that number on the open market. Thus, the chances of him opting out are slim to none.

While Harris is choosing to let Rodriguez and Báez make their decisions before deciding his next move, he will have to make a call about Kelly. The Tigers signed the backstop in August after he was released by the Diamondbacks. Over the final few weeks of the season, he caught 16 games for Detroit, allowing only a single passed ball and throwing out six of 12 would-be base stealers. He slashed .173/.271/.269. The 29-year-old has a $3.5MM club option for the 2024 campaign.

Given Kelly’s unimpressive offensive numbers, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Tigers cut ties with him following the season. After all, they only paid him a prorated portion of the league minimum in 2023, while the D-backs were on the hook for the rest of his $4.275MM guaranteed salary. Then again, Detroit wouldn’t have put the option in his contract if they weren’t going to consider it. Indeed, Harris suggested the team is seriously thinking about keeping Kelly in the fold. “That’s very much an open question for us,” he explained. “We’re going to spend a lot of time on it.”

The Tigers have a capable starting catcher in Jake Rogers, so Kelly would continue to serve as a backup if he returned in 2024. While he isn’t a threat with the bat, he’s a solid defensive catcher with several years of experience in the big leagues. He also comes with a bit more potential than most backup catchers, considering he was once a top-100 prospect.

Two more players Harris discussed were Meadows and Turnbull, both of whom missed the majority of the 2023 campaign. Meadows has been out since early April battling anxiety, while Turnbull hit the IL in May with a neck injury and never made it back to the big league club. The club could non-tender either player this offseason. However, Harris told reporters that he expects Turnbull to compete for a role in the starting rotation next year, which certainly suggests that he is planning to tender the righty a contract. When Turnbull was last fully healthy, he looked like a great starting pitcher, making nine starts and posting a 2.88 ERA in 2021. Harris hopes he can rediscover some of that success in 2024.

Regarding Meadows, the situation is a little more complicated. Without further comment from Meadows or his representatives, there’s no way to know when he could return to the field. Harris says he hasn’t spoken to Meadows in a few months, so he will need to have a conversation with the outfielder before making any further decisions. The executive called such a conversation a “priority.” If the former top prospect remains uncertain about his status for next season, it’s more than possible he could be non-tendered, although as Woodberry notes on Twitter, the team could leave the door open for him to return someday on a minor league deal.

As for potential spending in free agency, Harris didn’t promise any big moves, but he didn’t rule out making some acquisitions. Most importantly, he emphasized that the Tigers aren’t going to buy a core, and any transactions he makes in free agency or on the trade market will be to complement the young players already on the roster. In other words, he isn’t going to try to accelerate his team’s rebuild with a huge signing or a blockbuster trade. Therefore, if the Tigers are to contend in the AL Central next season, it will be thanks to young players like Kerry Carpenter, Spencer Torkelson, and Tarik Skubal taking a step forward. Most likely, this means the team’s competitive window won’t open until at least 2025.

In non-player news, Harris spoke about various infrastructure improvements in the works, including new dorms and a covered field, batting cages, and pitching mounds at Lakeland, the spring training locale for the Tigers and the regular season home of team’s Single-A and Rookie Ball affiliates. The team is also building a new training complex in the Dominican Republic and renovating the clubhouse at Comerica Park.

Meanwhile, Hinch reflected on the work his coaching staff did this season, praising their performance. However, he would not say if everyone would return in 2024. This doesn’t mean the Tigers are planning to replace any coaches, but it suggests they’re evaluating the staff and considering various possibilities.

Eduardo Rodriguez Discusses No-Trade, Opt-Out Rights

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Among the biggest stories of yesterday’s deadline was a trade that didn’t happen. The Tigers and Dodgers lined up an agreement that would’ve sent left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez to Los Angeles.

The Dodgers were among the 10 teams on a no-trade list which Rodriguez had built into his free agent deal with Detroit, however. The hurler blocked the trade and Detroit ended up holding him past the deadline. He’ll finish the year in the Motor City, though it remains to be seen what the future holds beyond that.

Rodriguez is able to opt out of the final three years and $49MM on his contract at season’s end. From a strict financial perspective, it looks as if doing so will be a fairly easy choice. The 30-year-old has a 2.96 ERA through 94 1/3 innings while striking out more than a quarter of opponents. He’s been inconsistent since returning from a finger injury but looked like the #2 caliber starter Detroit had envisioned earlier in the year.

Rodriguez met with reporters after today’s win over Pittsburgh. He understandably declined to delve into the reasons behind the veto, saying he “wasn’t feeling really comfortable with (the trade)” and made the decision to stick in Detroit after “thinking about my future and my family” (link via Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press).

The southpaw’s agent, Gene Mato, released a statement on Twitter in response to fan criticism leveled at Rodriguez in the wake of his decision:

“I negotiated a no-trade clause in his contract for a reason,” Mato wrote. “With all of the money, glamor and fame that comes with being a professional athlete there is also a very difficult, personal side. … Eduardo is one of the best left-handed starting pitchers in baseball but he is also a human being who wants stability for his family. They are comfortable living in the Detroit area and have adjusted well.

As for the Dodgers in particular, once I was granted permission to speak with them regarding the trade, we did our best to come up with a way to make it happen where everyone was comfortable with the outcome. We just ran out of time.”

Rodriguez also said he was quite happy in Detroit but declined to answer when asked if blocking the trade would have any bearing on his opt-out decision. “If I had a magic ball and I could tell you what was going to happen in the future, I’d probably tell you right away,” he told reporters. “But right now I’m here, I’m with this organization. I’m signed here for a long time. I feel happy with everything. My family feels happy in Detroit. I feel happy with the teammates and everything, the organization. I’d really love to stay here, and that’s why I made that decision.”

Barring a second-half collapse, Rodriguez should be in position to easily top $49MM on the open market. Pitchers like Robbie Ray and Kevin Gausman have beaten nine figures at the age Rodriguez is now. Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker got four-year deals worth $68MM and $72MM, respectively, coming off less impressive platform seasons than the one Rodriguez is putting together.

Rodriguez’s ERA is much better than it was two years ago, when he landed $77MM and the opt-out clause, although his peripherals are largely the same. He’s obviously older but wouldn’t cost a signing team a draft choice this time around. Rodriguez rejected a qualifying offer preceding his first trip to free agency; he can’t receive another QO since the CBA prevents a player from getting more than one in their careers.

It all points towards a likely opt-out. Still, the Tigers have a couple months of exclusive negotiating rights if they’re interested in opening conversations about keeping him off the market. Cody Stavenhagen of the Athletic wrote last night that Rodriguez could be open to restructuring his contract — presumably discussing a pay bump that’d get him to waive the opt-out clause — but there’ve only been cursory talks between the Tigers and the pitcher over the course of the season.

Whether there’ll be more serious negotiations over the next couple months remains to be seen. In the interim, Rodriguez will continue taking the ball every fifth day as the anchor of an otherwise fairly young Detroit rotation. The Tigers shipped out Michael Lorenzen yesterday, leaving them with a starting five of Rodriguez, Tarik Skubal, Reese Olson, Matt Manning and Joey Wentz. Righty Spencer Turnbull is on a rehab stint and could soon bump Wentz from the group.

Eduardo Rodriguez Not Traded; Vetoed Deal To Dodgers

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5:05pm: The Tigers did not trade Rodriguez, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.  If Rodriguez opts out of his contract after the season as expected, the 2023 trade deadline will have to be viewed as a missed opportunity for the club, as he is ineligible for a qualifying offer.  According to Rosenthal’s colleague Fabian Ardaya, Rodriguez vetoed the trade to the Dodgers due to “a desire to remain closer to family on the east coast.”

3:54pm: Tigers lefty Eduardo Rodriguez invoked his no-trade clause to kill a trade to the Dodgers, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan.  Passan writes that a deal was in place pending Rodriguez’s approval, but is now dead.  Rodriguez’s contract allows him to block deals to ten teams annually, and the Dodgers were on his list.  Now, the Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris has approximately one hour before today’s trade deadline to find a new deal for Rodriguez.

Earlier this afternoon, the Tigers reached an agreement to send Rodriguez’s rotation-mate Michael Lorenzen to the Phillies for infield prospect Hao-Yu Lee.  Finding a match for Rodriguez is crucial for Detroit, because he’s possibly the best starting pitcher on the trade market, he’s ineligible for a qualifying offer after the season, and he’s likely to opt out of his remaining three years and $49MM.  The Tigers still have 19 teams to which Rodriguez cannot block a deal.

The Padres were said to have interest in Rodriguez, but that may have changed upon their acquisition of Rich Hill.  Plus, it’s possible Rodriguez’s aversion to the Dodgers is a geographical thing and the Padres are also on his list.  The Orioles, Reds, and Diamondbacks could still be possibilities.

The Dodgers, though they’ve added Lance Lynn, have now missed out on top targets Justin Verlander and Rodriguez.  It’s unclear on where they may turn; yesterday, Jack Harris of the L.A. Times suggested Plan C could be to do nothing.  The Cardinals’ Jack Flaherty is still a candidate to move.

Padres, Braves Have Been Involved On Verlander; Astros Still Perceived As Likelier Landing Spot

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1:40pm: The Padres are out on Verlander at this point, tweets SNY’s Andy Martino. The Giants, who briefly threw their hat into the ring, have also backed out of the bidding.

11:55am: Feinsand reports that the Astros were close to a Verlander deal last night but that “things have really cooled down” today. He says the sticking point in the talks was the players going to the Mets, not the financials.

11:46am: Heyman tweets that while the Braves have been involved on Verlander, they’re not strongly in the mix at present.

11:14am: With just over six hours to go before the deadline, rumors about Justin Verlander’s future continue to swirl. The Astros, Dodgers and Orioles have all been linked to the three-time Cy Young winner. They’re not the only clubs with interest, however.

Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports (on Twitter) the Braves are also in conversations on Verlander. Meanwhile, Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets that the Padres are involved, though it’s not clear how serious San Diego’s interest is. The Friars also like Detroit southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez, suggests Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (on Twitter).

Even with the revelations of Atlanta and San Diego being at least on the periphery of the Verlander market, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that the previously-known trio of Houston, L.A. and Baltimore appear to be leading the market. Andy Martino of SNY and Bob Nightengale of USA Today both reiterate that Houston appears the likeliest landing spot.

Neither Atlanta nor San Diego has a strict rotation need. The Braves have some uncertainty towards the back of the staff at present, relying on recent waiver claim Yonny Chirinos to start games. Yet they’re a virtual lock to secure the NL East title and a first-round bye given their 11-game lead in the standings. Any additions at this point are geared more towards the playoffs. Max Fried will soon be back to join Spencer Strider at the top of the rotation. Bryce Elder and Charlie Morton are each playoff-caliber starters, while Kyle Wright could also factor into the plans in October.

Still, the Braves’ excellent roster at least affords them the flexibility to kick the tires on luxury buys. Verlander has an accomplished postseason track record. He’s not pitching at last year’s Cy Young level, but he carries a 3.15 ERA over 16 starts this season. It seems an open question whether the Mets would actually pull the trigger on a move to Atlanta, however. New York flipped David Robertson to Miami, so they’re not categorically opposed to intra-division trades. Yet Robertson is an impending free agent during a season in which the Mets are more or less conceding their playoff chances. Dealing Verlander, under contract for next year, to a club with which New York will ostensibly try to compete for a division title in 2024, would be a much bigger move.

San Diego seemingly checks in on every big-name player available. The Padres are reportedly targeting position player depth and bullpen help, which indeed seem like bigger concerns than the starting rotation. San Diego’s starters lead the majors with a 3.63 ERA and rank seventh with a 24% strikeout rate. With Blake Snell and Seth Lugo (by likely declining a player option) seemingly a few months from free agency, there’s an argument for the Friars looking for rotation help controllable beyond this season. That said, their reported diligence on Verlander and Rodriguez seem more like the Friars’ general approach of staying involved on any star.

Verlander is owed around $14.2MM on his record salary through season’s end. He’s due $43.333MM next year, while his contract contains a $35MM vesting/player option for 2025. The Mets would have to pay down some portion of the salary. They’re clearly amenable to doing so, though reports have suggested they value Verlander more highly than they did Max Scherzer — whose contract they paid down to $22.5MM over the next two seasons to land Luisangel Acuña from Texas.

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