Astros Owner Jim Crane Discusses Correa, Verlander, Gurriel, Baker
While Astros owner Jim Crane is focused on his team’s ALDS matchup with the White Sox, Crane talked about several impending offseason topics with FOX 26’s Mark Berman, The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome (all multiple links) and other reporters today.
With several major names scheduled to hit free agency, Crane said his team plans to “definitely be in the mix” to sign Carlos Correa, and “I think we have a chance” to retain the shortstop’s services. Of course, “it just depends on where we end up on that and what Carlos wants to do. Certainly dollars are a factor.”
The Astros made attempts to sign Correa to a contract extension last spring, reportedly making offers in the range of five years/$125MM and six years/$120MM. Those numbers seemed low even before Correa delivered an All-Star performance in 2021, and the 27-year-old now seems likely to land at least twice as much money on the open market.
Re-signing Correa would require the Astros to make the biggest financial commitment in franchise history, which Crane at least sounded open to, if a little guardedly. “I never count anything out….We have a history of doing something in the neighborhood of five (years) is the most we’ve ever done since I’ve been here,” Crane said. “Things can change. We’re not counting it out.”
Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Lance McCullers Jr. have all signed five-year extensions with Houston during Crane’s stewardship, and it isn’t as if Crane has been unwilling to spend. Altuve’s five additional years gave the second baseman $151MM in new guaranteed money, Bregman’s extension was worth $100MM, and McCullers landed $85.5MM. That said, Correa said back in April that the Astros “made it clear to me they don’t believe in long contracts, they don’t believe in big contracts,” which could indicate that his contractual expectations go far beyond any commitment the Astros are willing to make.
Crane didn’t bring up the qualifying offer in regards to Correa, in all likelihood because it seems a foregone conclusion that Houston will issue Correa a QO and he’ll reject the one-year offer, leaving the Astros in line to receive draft pick compensation if Correa did sign elsewhere. Justin Verlander is a bit more complicated qualifying-offer case given that the veteran ace has missed virtually all of the last two seasons with injury, but Crane said “we’ll probably” issue Verlander the QO “and then see where it goes.”
Even after two lost seasons and now on the verge of his age-39 season, Verlander is still “looking for a contract of some length,” according to Crane. This would imply that Verlander would reject the one-year qualifying offer (though it would pay in the neighborhood of a $20MM salary for 2022) in search of a longer-term deal, and given Verlander’s track record, it certainly seems possible that at least one or even multiple teams would be willing to sign the future Hall-of-Famer to such a multi-year contract.
If Verlander did reject the QO, the Astros would at least benefit via compensatory draft picks. However, Verlander has 10 days to decide whether or not to accept a qualifying offer, and if he doesn’t get wind of any teams showing interest in a multi-year deal, Verlander might choose to take the QO and remain in a familiar situation in Houston. The Astros and Verlander’s camp could then negotiate a longer-term extension after the QO had been accepted, similar to what Jose Abreu and the White Sox did in the 2019-20 offseason.
There appears to be much less controversy surrounding Yuli Gurriel‘s 2022 status. The Astros hold an $8MM club option on Gurriel for next season, which looks to Crane like “a pretty easy decision. I’m sure we’ll execute on that.” The 37-year-old Gurriel is coming off a strong season that saw him hit 15 homers and win the AL batting title as part of an overall .319/.383/.462 performance in 605 plate appearances.
Beyond the player roster, manager Dusty Baker isn’t under contract beyond this season, as Crane said “we haven’t really talked about it. We’re going to wait for things to get over with here” in the Astros’ playoff run. Baker has led the Astros to the postseason in each of his two years in Houston, and the veteran manager has indicated that he would like to continue with the team.
Though Crane noted that GM James Click has authority over the manager’s job, “I’ll certainly weigh in on it and we’ll make a decision probably together on that one because I did hire [Baker] to begin with.” Crane did give Baker some measure of a vote of confidence in noting that Baker “has done a great job for us. I like Dusty a lot.”
Justin Verlander And The Qualifying Offer
It’s always been a long shot that Justin Verlander would be able to return in 2021, but Astros general manager James Click confirmed to Sean Salisbury of SportsTalk 790 AM in Houston this morning that Verlander won’t pitch for the team down the stretch (link via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle).
Click tells Salisbury that Verlander recently inquired with his doctors about the possibility and was “strongly advised” against attempting a comeback in 2021, as such a quick turnaround would carry “tremendous risk for the efficacy of the surgery.” Verlander had previously spoken with a hint of optimism about returning as a reliever in the season’s final weeks.
Verlander tweeted back in May that he planned to continue pitching “for a long time” and hasn’t considered retirement, but it’s not yet clear where he’ll continue his career. The 38-year-old (39 in February) is set to hit the open market at season’s end, though the ‘Stros will first need to determine whether they want to make a qualifying offer to Verlander.
A one-year offer in the $19MM range would normally be deemed steep for any pitcher coming off a season spent rehabbing Tommy John surgery, but Verlander is, of course, no ordinary pitcher. He’s only pitched six innings since Opening Day 2020, but Verlander is a two-time Cy Young winner, a three-time Cy Young runner-up, an eight-time All-Star and a former American League MVP. His last full season, pitched at 36 years of age in 2019, saw him rack up 223 innings of 2.52 ERA ball en route to the second of those two Cy Young wins.
A straightforward path for Verlander may be to simply accept a payday in the $19MM range — if offered — and remain in a setting where he’s clearly comfortable. That sum checks in well north of the recent bounceback salaries we’ve seen for similarly high-profile names like Corey Kluber ($11MM), so there’d be good reason for him to consider it. On the other hand, it’s a pretty sizable cut from Verlander’s prior $33MM salary, and the veteran may simply want to test the free-agent market for the first time in his career. Verlander has played out his entire career on a series of extensions with the Tigers and Astros, so he’s never explored the open market.
The question for the Astros, meanwhile, is whether they’d want to invest $19MM (or thereabouts) into a soon-to-be 39-year-old pitcher who has made just one start since winning that Cy Young Award in 2019. There aren’t many more appealing players on whom to take a one-year flier than Verlander, but the Houston payroll is already rather large.
[Related: 2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates]
The Astros have just under $97MM on the books in 2022, and that’s before arbitration raises to Framber Valdez (first time eligible), Josh James (first time), Phil Maton (second time), Ryne Stanek (second time), Rafael Montero (third time) and Aledmys Diaz (third time). That $97MM number also doesn’t include club options for Yuli Gurriel ($8MM) or Ryan Pressly ($10MM) — both of which seem sure to be picked up, barring a late injury. None of those arb-eligible players will break the bank in terms of 2022 salary — some could obviously be non-tendered, too — but those smaller salaries will begin to add up.
Furthermore, the Astros will have some big names to replace. Carlos Correa is a free agent and could land elsewhere after rejecting the team’s extension overtures in Spring Training. Consummate innings eater Zack Greinke is set to hit the market as well, and the Astros also stand to lose relievers Kendall Graveman, Yimi Garcia and Brooks Raley to free agency. If Verlander were to accept a qualifying offer, the Houston payroll could jump north of $140MM before the team even looks at replacing Correa or any of the departing relievers. Their 2021 payroll currently sits at about $189MM.
The in-house rotation depth the Astros already possess is also a factor in determining whether to extend a qualifying offer to Verlander. Even with a pair of likely Hall of Famers potentially departing (Greinke, Verlander), the Astros can still boast a staff of Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia,Valdez, Jake Odorizzi, Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy. That’s before even considering upper-level arms like Hunter Brown and Peter Solomon. There’s an argument to be made that dedicating a sizable portion of available offseason resources to a rebound candidate in the rotation — even one with as much upside as Verlander — shouldn’t be the team’s priority.
We know the Astros are going to make a qualifying offer to Correa, and as one of the top free agents on the market, he’ll reject that QO without a second thought. Verlander is a closer call, but the Astros will surely be intrigued by the possibility of getting a compensatory pick after their recent penalties in the draft (stemming from the 2017 sign-stealing scandal). Plus, even with the in-house options they do have, a one-year deal for Verlander has plenty of appeal. The Astros could, and probably should, just extend the qualifying offer and be happy with either outcome.
What do MLBTR readers think? (Links to both polls)
Should the Astros make a qualifying offer to Justin Verlander?
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Yes 57% (6,405)
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No 43% (4,802)
Total votes: 11,207
Should Justin Verlander accept a qualifying offer if he receives one?
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Yes, he should accept it. 75% (7,830)
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No, he should reject it. 25% (2,641)
Total votes: 10,471
2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates
With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and a little more than six weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty of front offices are turning their attention towards the upcoming offseason. The first notable decision for many clubs will be to decide whether to tag one or more of their top impending free agents with a qualifying offer.
As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer teams can make to certain impending free agents. The precise value of the QO has yet to be calculated, but it’s determined as the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. Last season, the QO value was set at $18.9MM. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal. If he rejects, his previous team would receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.
Last season, six players (George Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman) received qualifying offers. Gausman and Stroman accepted the QO, while Realmuto and LeMahieu re-signed with their current clubs as free agents. The Reds and Astros received compensatory picks (used on Jay Allen and Chayce McDermott, respectively) when Bauer and Springer departed.
The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from being tagged with a qualifying offer multiple times in his career. (A list of every active big leaguer who has previously received a QO is available here). Similarly, in order to be eligible, the player must have spent the entire preceding season on the same team. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a QO.
With the majority of the 2021 season in the books, we can take a look at the upcoming free agent class to predict which players might wind up receiving qualifying offer this winter.
Locks
- Carlos Correa, Freddie Freeman, Clayton Kershaw, Robbie Ray, Carlos Rodón, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story
This group is fairly straightforward, as there’s very little chance any of these players would accept a qualifying offer. Correa, Seager and Freeman all have MVP-caliber upside and are locks to pull in long-term deals this winter. Semien didn’t receive a QO from the A’s after a down year in 2020, took a pillow contract with the Jays for almost the value of the QO ($18MM), and has essentially replicated his 2019 form that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting. He should find a big multi-year deal this time around.
Story is having a bit of a down year, but there’s no doubt the Rockies will make him a qualifying offer after not trading him at the deadline. Nick Groke of the Athletic wrote this week that Colorado hasn’t given up hope of convincing him to sign a long-term extension, but that seems unlikely given Story’s own bewilderment he wasn’t moved to a contender this summer. Whether Story is willing to return to Denver or not, he’ll receive a QO.
Kershaw, Ray and Rodón will be among the top pitchers on the market. Kershaw has spent the past couple months on the injured list due to forearm soreness, but he’s expected back in September and is in the midst of another fantastic season. So long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a QO. Ray and Rodón both had to settle for one-year deals after poor 2020 seasons, but they’ve each been among the best pitchers in the American League this year.
Likely
- Michael Conforto, Jon Gray, Yusei Kikuchi, Eduardo Rodríguez, Noah Syndergaard, Chris Taylor, Justin Verlander
Over the past two seasons, Taylor has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s top 25 qualified hitters by measure of wRC+ and he’s versatile enough to cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. He’s not a true everyday player at any one spot and he’s making contact at a career-worst rate this season, so he falls just short of being an absolute lock for a QO. But the Dodgers would be as willing as any team to shoulder a significant one-year salary were Taylor to accept, and his body of work should be sufficient to warrant a multi-year deal regardless.
The Mets’ players in this group are two of the more interesting free agents in the class. Conforto entered the season looking like a lock for a QO and seemingly having a chance at landing nine figures with a strong platform year. He missed a month with injury, though, and hasn’t made anywhere near his typical level of impact at the plate. He’s shown some life over the past few weeks, and between his track record and age (28), Conforto still seems a good bet to land a long-term deal.
Syndergaard was a top-of-the-rotation starter at his peak, but he hasn’t pitched since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery. He’s eyeing a September return — likely in relief, given his dwindling time to build up arm strength — and his late-season form will obviously be critical to his market. The Mets should run one of the higher payrolls in the league, and Syndergaard has the upside to be an ace if healthy, so New York still seems more likely than not to make the offer.
Similarly, Verlander has essentially missed two full seasons because of his own Tommy John procedure. That’s a scary development for a pitcher who’ll be 39 on Opening Day 2022, but he was still every bit an ace when we last saw him in 2018-19. The Astros are a win-now club that runs high payrolls, so Verlander accepting a QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Houston would recoup some much-needed draft compensation after losing their past two first-round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.
Colorado reportedly showed even less interest in trading Gray than they did with Story at the deadline. There’s apparently mutual interest about working out a multi-year extension, and the QO could serve as a temporary measure to keep Gray in Denver while the Rockies and Gray’s representatives work on a long-term deal.
Rodríguez has bounced back to take the ball every fifth day this year after a scary bout with myocarditis cost him all of 2020. His ERA’s pushing 5.00, but his peripherals are far better than that bottom line run prevention and the southpaw has an established track record of mid-rotation production.
The Mariners are facing a difficult decision regarding Kikuchi, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last month. Seattle must decide whether to exercise a package deal of four successive club options at $16.5MM apiece (essentially a four-year, $66MM extension) this winter. If the Mariners don’t exercise their four-year option, Kikuchi has a $13MM player option to return to Seattle for 2022. If both parties decline their ends, the 30-year-old would hit free agency this offseason, although the M’s could then tag Kikuchi with a qualifying offer.
Given that Kikuchi will only be a free agent if he passes on a $13MM player option, the Mariners would likely make him a QO worth a few million dollars more if it comes to that — either with the expectation he’ll decline in search of a longer-term deal, or with the hope he accepts and Seattle can keep him in the fold next season without committing themselves to the additional three years of guaranteed money.
Possible
The Giants have plenty of payroll space this offseason and seem likely to try to keep most of this season’s core together. Belt has been one of the sport’s most productive offensive players on a rate basis over the past two years. But he’s also 33 years old, has a long injury history and is striking out at the highest rate of his career.
San Francisco bought low on DeSclafani over the winter after he had a tough 2020 season with the Reds. He’s bounced back to post a very strong 3.26 ERA, although his peripherals are closer to average and he’s benefitted from opponents’ .257 batting average on balls in play. The Giants will likely see 4/5 of their starting rotation hit free agency this winter, so they could be eager to bring DeSclafani back, even if that comes via a lofty 2022 salary.
Morton has had another productive season in his first year as a Brave, but his previous two teams (the Astros in 2018 and the Rays in 2020) let him reach free agency without making a qualifying offer despite his consistently strong track record. That’s presumably due to concerns about his past injury history and age. He’ll turn 38 this winter and might check his potential earning power by limiting himself to teams in the Southeastern part of the country — as he reportedly did last offseason. That could inspire the Braves to pass on a QO, but Morton continually reels off above-average performances, and this is an Atlanta front office that has been eager to dole out hefty single-year salaries for key veteran upgrades in recent years.
Iglesias looks like the top impending free agent reliever (assuming the White Sox exercise their option over Craig Kimbrel). He’s sporting an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth time in his six seasons since moving to the bullpen, and he’s never had a single-season SIERA above 3.55. Home runs have been an issue, but Iglesias gets above-average results year in and year out and has some of the best strikeout and walk numbers in the game in 2021.
Long Shots
The Giants hold a $22MM club option (with a $3MM buyout) over Posey’s services for next season. If the front office is willing to commit him a significant salary, they’ll just exercise the option rather than going the QO route. Indeed, they’re reportedly planning to do exactly that (or to potentially pursue a multi-year extension with the franchise icon). Either way, there’s no real reason to involve the qualifying offer here.
Canha would be a very plausible qualifying offer candidate on many teams. He’s been a well above-average hitter and overall performer three years running and is generally one of the game’s more underrated players. The A’s, though, didn’t make a QO to either of Semien or Liam Hendriks last season. Canha’s a Bay Area native, and his age (33 in February) will cap the length of offers he receives from other clubs. Given that, it’s not hard to envision him accepting a QO if offered. The A’s, who perennially run low payrolls and will have a loaded class of arbitration-eligible players this winter, don’t seem likely to take that risk.
Wainwright has had a fantastic 2021 season, and the Cardinals figure to be motivated to keep the franchise icon in St. Louis in some capacity. But that also looked to be true after his strong 2020 campaign, and Wainwright only wound up landing a one-year, $8MM deal. He’d be well-deserved in demanding a raise over that sum to return next season, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals would be willing to chance more than doubling his salary — particularly if they feel Wainwright’s motivated to remain in St. Louis rather than pursue the highest possible offers in free agency.
Kluber signed an $11MM deal with the Yankees last offseason after back-to-back seasons wrecked by injury. He pitched well through ten starts but has been out since late May with a shoulder strain. Kluber’s nearing a return to action, but his missing nearly three months only adds to prior concerns about his ability to handle a significant workload at this stage of his career.
Kim, García and Wood are all having strong 2021 seasons and could plausibly land solid multi-year deals this winter. Each has enough question marks that their teams don’t seem especially likely to offer a salary in the range of the qualifying offer, though. Kim doesn’t miss many bats; García has had extreme highs and lows throughout his career; Wood has a checkered injury history. García’s contract contains a $12MM club option that vests into a mutual option if he reaches 492 plate appearances this season. If that option doesn’t vest, the Brewers would obviously have no incentive to decline the option only to make a qualifying offer at a higher price point.
Opt-Out Clauses
Each of Arenado (six years, $179MM), Castellanos (two years, $34MM) and Martinez (one year, $19.35MM) has significant guaranteed money remaining on their contracts but can opt out of those deals this winter. Arenado and Castellanos would be locks to reject qualifying offers if they trigger their opt-out provisions, since they’d be foregoing bigger guarantees to test the market.
Martinez’s player option is of similar enough value to the projected value of the qualifying offer that he could plausibly trigger the opt-out but then accept a QO. Even if that proved to be the case, the Red Sox would probably be happy to keep him in the middle of the lineup for another season.
Ineligible
- Javier Báez (midseason trade), Kris Bryant (midseason trade), Alex Cobb (previous QO), Nelson Cruz (previous QO/midseason trade), Danny Duffy (midseason trade), Eduardo Escobar (midseason trade), Kevin Gausman (previous QO), Kendall Graveman (midseason trade), Zack Greinke (previous QO), Kenley Jansen (previous QO), Starling Marte (midseason trade), Anthony Rizzo (midseason trade), Max Scherzer (previous QO/midseason trade), Kyle Schwarber (midseason trade), Marcus Stroman (previous QO)
Quick Hits: Sticky Stuff Crackdown, Cardinals, Verlander
As we approach trade season, teams are burdened with the overwhelming task of re-evaluating the league in the wake of the crackdown on illegal substances. Broad strokes, evaluators will be more trusting of pitchers who rely on two-seamers and sinkers, writes ESPN’s Buster Olney. Unsurprisingly, those pitchers who have taken to the recent trend of high-velocity heaters up in the zone and wicked curveballs diving away will be watched more closely. The next month will obviously provide important data points for potential buyers, but looking at how players have struggled and/or succeeded in the first few months of the year will also be heavily scrutinized by teams looking to find players on the rebound. In other MLB news….
- The Cardinals are doing their best to patch together a rotation in the wake of Jack Flaherty‘s extended absence, but they’re also exploring their options outside the organization. They have reached out to the Twins about Jose Berrios and the Rangers for Kyle Gibson, but the price for Berrios was “high,” and presumably, the same will be true of Gibson, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. With very few difference-making arms likely to be available, Berrios and Gibson are sure to be in high demand. President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak spoke of the Cardinals’ desire to win, but “not at the cost of our future.” While that’s a reasonable mode of thinking, such a mind-set isn’t likely to procure an arm like Berrios or Gibson.
- Justin Verlander hasn’t rule out the possibility of returning to the Detroit Tigers before his career runs out, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Of course, Verlander needs to get healthy first. He will be a free agent at the end of the season, however, free to pursue a return to Detroit, should that be his desire. Verlander played in Detroit for 13 seasons. He ranks 2nd in Tigers’ history for rWAR among pitchers, 2.7 rWAR behind Hal Newhouser. He is fifth in Tigers’ history in games started with 380 and 2nd in total strikeouts with 2,373.
Astros’ Framber Valdez Could Return In June
Astros starter Framber Valdez could return to the team at some point in June, manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including Brian McTaggart of MLB.com) this afternoon. That’s the first timeline the organization has defined since the left-hander fractured his left ring finger on a comebacker during Spring Training.
In the initial aftermath of the injury, it was reported Valdez could require season-ending surgery. A second opinion suggested he may instead be able to rehab without surgery, and he’s continued to make progress since electing that course of action. In Valdez’s absence, Houston starters have managed a solid 3.82 ERA, albeit with a less impressive 4.17 SIERA that ranks eighteenth league-wide. Valdez figures to improve those numbers after tossing 70 2/3 innings of 3.57 ERA/3.23 SIERA ball last year. The 27-year-old posted strong strikeout and walk rates (26.4% and 5.6%, respectively) while inducing ground balls at a massive clip (60%).
Valdez’s injury spurred the Astros to sign Jake Odorizzi to a two-year, $23.5MM guarantee in mid-March. Unfortunately, the righty wound up on the injured list himself after just eight regular season innings, leaving his third start of the year early with forearm tightness. Odorizzi threw 40 pitches in a simulated game yesterday, though, and he’s soon to join Triple-A Sugar Land for a minor-league rehab assignment (McTaggart links).
Valdez and Odorizzi aren’t the only high-profile Astros starters on the injured list. Justin Verlander, who underwent Tommy John surgery last September, met with reporters this week and confirmed his rehab is on track (via McTaggart). Verlander conceded he was unlikely to return this season (no surprise, given the timing of his surgery and the procedure’s typical 13-16 month recovery timeline). However, the 38-year-old stressed he has no plans to retire, tweeting Friday he “(plans) on still pitching for a long time.” Verlander will be a free agent at the end of the year.
Astros Claim Robel Garcia
The Astros have claimed infielder Robel Garcia off waivers, the Angels announced (Twitter link). The Halos designated Garcia for assignment earlier this week. Justin Verlander was placed on the Astros’ 60-day injured list to create roster space for Garcia, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle tweets.
Garcia is no stranger to the waiver wire at this point, as he is now joining his fifth different organization since July. Initially DFA’ed by the Cubs on July 23, Garcia was claimed and then subsequently designated by the Reds, Mets, and Angels, with Los Angeles just picking Garcia up at the start of February.
Is there a chance Garcia could finally stick in Houston? He offers some versatility as a utility infielder (who has also spent some time in left field), though Almedys Diaz and Abraham Toro already provide a lot of multi-positional depth on the Astros’ bench. Toro hasn’t yet shown much at the plate over 186 Major League plate appearances, however, so the Astros could see Garcia as a potential option if Toro is sent to Triple-A.
Garcia’s big league resume consists of 80 PA over 31 games with the Cubs in 2019, when he hit .208/.275/.500 with five home runs. His unique minor league career included four years in the Indians’ farm system from 2010-13 before taking three years away from baseball and then resurfacing in the Italian Baseball League in 2017. This led to a minors deal with the Cubs in 2019, and some very big numbers at the Double-A and Triple-A levels prior to his call-up. Garcia doesn’t turn 28 years old until next month, so he presents some intrigue as a late-blooming power bat.
Justin Verlander To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Justin Verlander announced (via his Instagram page) that he will undergo Tommy John surgery. As per the normal timeline for TJ recovery, Verlander will miss the entire 2021 season.
The right-hander’s full statement…
After consulting with several of the best doctors, it has become clear that I need Tommy John surgery. I was hopeful that I would be able to return to competition in 2020, however, during my simulated game unfortunately the injury worsened. Obviously I’m extremely disappointed, but I will not let this slow down my aspirations for my career. I will approach this rehab the only way I know, attack and don’t look back. I’m confident that with a proper rehabilitation program and my unwavering commitment that this surgery will ultimately lengthen my career as opposed to shorten it. I can’t thank my teammates, coaches, the front office and my fans enough for the support they have given me so far in this process. I’m eager to get through this recovery and back on the field to continue to do what I love.
Verlander started the Astros’ first game of the season and then was placed on the injured list due to a forearm strain. After some initial speculation that the injury would be season-ending, there was hope that Verlander was nearing a return to Houston’s rotation before the end of the schedule, and that he would be available for the team in the playoffs. Unfortunately, it now seems like we won’t see Verlander back on a mound until Opening Day 2022 at the earliest.
Given that Verlander will be 39 years old at that point, there is at least a chance that we have already seen the last pitch of his Hall Of Fame career. There isn’t a long track record of pitchers rebounding after such a notable surgery at that advanced age, though on the plus side for Verlander, he has been the picture of durability over his career. Apart from a triceps strain that cost him two months of the 2015 season, Verlander has been virtually free of any major injury, so he could theoretically have a better chance at a full recovery and a return to form than most pitchers in their late 30’s.
Verlander has already done better than most in holding off Father Time, as he is coming off two of his best seasons. At ages 35 and 36 during the 2018-19 seasons, Verlander posted a cumulative 2.55 ERA, 12.2 K/9, and 7.47 K/BB rate over 437 innings for Houston, leading the league in both K/BB and WHIP in both years. After finishing second in AL Cy Young voting in 2018, Verlander edged out then-teammate Gerrit Cole to win the award in 2019, eight seasons after Verlander’s initial Cy Young Award triumph (as well as an AL MVP Award) with the Tigers in 2011.
The Astros signed Verlander to a two-year, $66MM extension prior to the 2019 season, and that deal certainly looked all the world like a sound investment in the wake of Verlander’s Cy Young year. However, both years of that contract have now been wiped out thanks to his forearm problem, and it is possible Verlander’s time in Houston could now be up.
It’s a major blow to an Astros team that already has $115MM committed to the 2021 season in the form of only four players — Verlander, Zack Greinke, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman. With George Springer, Michael Brantley, and Yuli Gurriel all scheduled for free agency this winter, GM James Click faces some significant financial decisions, and the Astros’ overall direction is now severely complicated with the knowledge that Verlander won’t be a factor in 2021. While Houston has gotten some nice contributions from younger arms like Jose Urquidy, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez, obviously the pitching staff is much deeper and stronger with Verlander teaming with Greinke at the top of the rotation.
Injury Notes: JV, McCullers, Hoskins, Moronta, Chafin
Justin Verlander has continued to progress in his late-season comeback effort, as Jake Kaplan of The Athletic writes. The veteran hurler isn’t yet ready to return to the Astros rotation, of course, but he has now faced live hitters in a two-inning sim game. It’s still unclear how things will progress from here. The club would surely like to get JV a regular-season appearance before the season concludes, but it’s also possible he’d make his first start in the postseason. Meanwhile, the ‘Stros have now welcomed back fellow right-hander Lance McCullers from his own stay on the injured list, as Mark Berman of FOX 26 was among those to tweet. It turned out to be a brief stay for McCullers, who had a procedure to relieve neck nerve irritation. He’ll look to improve upon a 5.79 ERA through his first eight outings.
Here are some more injury notes from around the league …
- Phillies first bagger Rhys Hoskins is still in limbo as he deals with an elbow/foream issue. As Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports on Twitter, the burly slugger is holding out hope of a return even while the threat of a season-ending surgery hangs over his head. When and how this situation will be resolved isn’t yet clear. Losing Hoskins would represent a big dent to the Phils’ lineup. He has to this point of the season turned in a productive .245/.384/.503 slash line with ten long balls.
- It seems the Giants could yet get a bullpen boost from right-hander Reyes Moronta. He’s ready for competitive mound action at the team’s alternate training site, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area notes on Twitter. Moronta has been building up after undergoing shoulder surgery, so the club won’t want to push him too hard. But it’s enticing to imagine adding another postseason weapon, particularly since Moronta is said to be showing typically strong velocity. Jeff Samardzija is also nearing readiness, with a five-inning set scheduled. It’s unclear what role may await for the veteran once he’s deemed a full go. He coughed up 15 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings over his first three starts on the year.
- The Cubs haven’t yet received a contribution from recently acquired southpaw Andrew Chafin, but that may soon change. The 30-year-old reliever, who was nursing a finger sprain when he was dealt at the trade deadline, is close enough that he could be activated over the next few days, skipper David Ross indicated to reporters including Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune (Twitter link). Chafin had struggled to open the year in Arizona, but he’d represent a notable addition to a bullpen that has had its share of issues, especially from the left side.
Latest On Justin Verlander, Lance McCullers Jr.
With nine losses in their past 11 games, the reigning American League champion Astros have fallen under .500 (23-24) and find themselves fighting for their playoff lives. The Astros have gone almost the whole year without 2019 AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, which certainly hasn’t helped matters, but they’re hoping to get him back for a start in the final week of the regular season, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com relays.
Verlander, who’s recovering from a forearm strain, threw 55-60 pitches Saturday and will soon face live hitters, which is a “very, very positive sign,” according to manager Dusty Baker.
In Baker’s estimation, no matter how late in the campaign, a Verlander return would be like a major late-season acquisition. Baker’s not wrong in that regard, as Verlander has long been an elite starter and could help decide whether the Astros make the playoffs for a fourth consecutive season or sit home in the fall.
Without Verlander, who has only taken the mound once (on July 24), the Astros’ formerly elite rotation has been a middle-of-the-pack unit. Zack Greinke and Framber Valdez have posted far better field-independent pitching numbers than ERAs; on the other hand, the opposite has been true for Cristian Javier; Jose Urquidy has only made two starts; and Lance McCullers Jr. logged a 5.79 ERA before going on the injured list Sept. 6 with neck problems. Like Verlander, though, McCullers is on his way back, per McTaggart, who writes that he’ll return to the team’s rotation Wednesday.
Latest On Justin Verlander
This season hasn’t gone as hoped for the reigning American League champion Astros, who have started 22-21 while dealing with several notable injuries. They have gone nearly the entire campaign without 2019 AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, who made one start in July and has been out since with a forearm strain, but it seems there is hope the right-hander will return this year. Manager Dusty Baker told Jake Kaplan of The Athletic and other reporters that Verlander was in line for a 50- to 55-pitch bullpen session Wednesday.
It remains to be seen whether Verlander will get through the session without setbacks, but it’s nonetheless encouraging that he has progressed to this point. Should he get through it unscathed, Verlander could be close to rejoining the Astros, who would make the playoffs if the season ended now.
Thankfully for Verlander-less Houston, Framber Valdez has established himself as a solid starter this year, which has helped complement Zack Greinke in their staff and make up for the loss of Verlander to a degree. Rookie Cristian Javier has stopped runs at a good rate (3.46 ERA over 41 2/3 innings), meanwhile, but his peripherals aren’t as encouraging. And though the Astros did just get back Jose Urquidy back from the injured list, they had to place Lance McCullers Jr. on the IL on Sept. 6 with neck issues. So, while the Astros would be thrilled to welcome a healthy and effective Verlander back under any circumstance, he may be especially helpful in the next few weeks.