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MLBTR Podcast: Yusei Kikuchi, The Aggressive Angels, And The Singer/India Trade

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • For the Juan Soto sweepstakes, will agent Scott Boras just ask each club for its best offer? Or tell each club what others are offering to try to spur a bidding war? (20:45)
  • The Athletics are reportedly trying to have a $100MM payroll in 2025. Please come up with a plan to help them spend that money. (25:05)
  • It seems that third base is going to shape the destiny of the 2025 Mariners. How soon will they get over themselves and sign Alex Bregman or another top free agent? (29:40)
  • What do you think of the Nationals’ decision to non-tender Kyle Finnegan? (34:15)
  • What do you make of the recent reports that the Tigers and Tarik Skubal discussed an extension but didn’t get close? (38:20)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Nationals Non-Tender Kyle Finnegan

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The Nationals announced Friday that they’ve non-tendered closer Kyle Finnegan and fellow right-handed reliever Tanner Rainey. Both pitchers are now free agents. It’s a surprise move for the Nats, who watched Finnegan make his first All-Star team in 2024 while pacing the team with 38 saves. He’d been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $8.6MM in arbitration.

Unexpected as the move was, there’s a case to be made that Finnegan’s gaudy save totals have disproportionately inflated his value. The 33-year-old righty hasn’t been a bad reliever on a rate basis by any means, but he’s also not the shutdown weapon many might expect based on that All-Star nod and his 66 saves over the past two seasons. Finnegan pitched to a solid but unspectacular 3.68 earned run average in 63 2/3 innings this season. Despite a blazing 97.4 mph average on his fastball, Finnegan’s 22.1% strikeout rate was lower than the league average for relievers. His 8.9% walk rate was right at the league average. He’s also been fairly susceptible to home runs, serving up an average of 1.35 big flies per nine innings pitched over the past two seasons.

Hard as Finnegan throws, neither his four-seamer nor his splitter miss bats at a high level. This year’s 10.8% swinging-strike rate was below average. He’s also quite prone to hard contact, even beyond the home runs. He yielded an average exit velocity of 91.3 mph in 2024 and 92.2 mph in 2023. Over the past two seasons, a whopping 47.8% of the batted balls against him left the bat at 95 mph or greater.

Metrics like FIP (4.42), xFIP (3.91) and SIERA (3.90) simply haven’t bought into Finnegan as a premium reliever over the past two seasons, even as he’s been the Nationals’ go-to option in leverage situations. Washington has traded away most of its short-term veterans at this point but held onto Finnegan. Some have speculated that perhaps teams were unwilling to meet GM Mike Rizzo’s asking price in a trade, but today’s non-tender surely came on the heels of an effort to trade Finnegan. It’s likely that many teams around the league simply don’t feel Finnegan, at 33 years of age and with a worsening K-BB rates in three straight seasons, is worth his likely $8-9MM price tag in arbitration.

Some of that trepidation is surely borne from the fact that Finnegan pitched quite poorly in the season’s final two months. The right-hander carried a 2.32 ERA, 26% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate through late July. Over his final 21 innings, however, he was shelled for a 6.43 ERA with just a 15.7% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate. Finnegan didn’t experience a drop in velocity, but he was nowhere near as effective as he’d been for the first two-thirds of the season.

None of this is to say Finnegan won’t find interest now that he’s unexpectedly become a free agent. He now only costs money and a roster spot, and other clubs that are intrigued by the raw velocity on that four-seamer might well have some ideas about how to coax more swings and misses out of what’s clearly a power arm. A club willing to look past the poor finish to his 2024 season could certainly dream on the scenario of getting him back to the form he displayed leading into this year’s All-Star Game.

Finnegan probably won’t command an annual salary in the $8-9MM range like he might’ve earned in free agency, but he’s the rare non-tendered player who might also have a chance at commanding a multi-year deal at a lower rate of pay. More likely, he’ll ink a one-year deal and look to rebound before hitting the market on the heels of a stronger showing next winter. He’ll be heading into his age-34 campaign at that point — a downside of not making his MLB debut until his age-28 season.

Rainey, 31, is a far more straightforward non-tender case. The former flamethrowing reliever was a key piece of Washington’s bullpen in 2019-20, but injuries have taken their toll — most notably Tommy John surgery in 2022. Rainey pitched just one inning in ’23, and while he returned to toss 51 frames this past season, his 94 mph average fastball was nowhere near its 97.7 mph peak. He was tagged for a 4.76 ERA on the season while displaying strikeout (19%), walk (12.6%) and home run (1.41 per nine) rates that were significantly worse than league average. Swartz projected him for a $1.9MM salary in arbitration, but Rainey might need to settle for a minor league deal to show he can regain some of his pre-injury form.

National League Non-Tenders: 11/22/24

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The deadline to tender a contract to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7pm CT. Here’s a rundown of the players on National League teams that have been non-tendered today. This post will be updated as more decisions are revealed. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for all players eligible for arbitration last month. All players who are non-tendered before this evening’s deadline go directly into free agency, where they’re eligible to sign with any of MLB’s 30 clubs.

Onto the transactions…

  • The Braves non-tendered outfielder Ramón Laureano, left-hander Ray Kerr, as well as right-handers Griffin Canning, Huascar Ynoa and Royber Salinas, which you can read more about here.
  • The Brewers parted ways with lefty reliever Hoby Milner, who’d been projected at $2.7MM for his final arbitration season. The typically reliable southpaw was tagged for a 4.73 ERA in 64 2/3 innings this year.
  • The Cardinals have non-tendered right-hander Adam Kloffenstein, per Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat (Bluesky link). The righty only just made his major league debut in 2024 and was not yet arb-eligible. He immediately becomes a free agent without being exposed to waivers.
  • The Cubs have non-tendered infielder Nick Madrigal, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN (X link). Madrigal has hit .251/.304/.312 for a 76 wRC+ over the last three seasons with the Cubs and was projected for a $1.9MM salary next year. Chicago also announced they non-tendered outfielder Mike Tauchman, which comes as a bit of a surprise after he reached base at a .357 clip this year. Patrick Wisdom, Adbert Alzolay, Brennen Davis and Trey Wingenter — all of whom were designated for assignment earlier this week — were also dropped.
  • The Diamondbacks non-tendered lefty reliever Brandon Hughes, per a club announcement. The 28-year-old southpaw allowed 16 runs over 17 2/3 big league innings this year. He wasn’t eligible for arbitration but would’ve occupied a 40-man roster spot if offered a contract.
  • The Dodgers are non-tendering right-hander Brent Honeywell Jr. and left-hander Zach Logue, per Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times (X link). Both pitchers are still in their pre-arbitration years, so this was more about the Dodgers sending them to free agency without exposing them to waivers, as opposed to cost cutting. Perhaps the club will look to re-sign them on minor league deals.
  • The Giants only made two non-tenders, parting with lefty Ethan Small and righty Kai-Wei Teng. Teng had been designated for assignment earlier in the week. Small, who was in his pre-arbitration years, spent the season in the minors or on the injured list.
  • The Marlins had zero non-tenders. They offered contracts to everyone on the 40-man roster.
  • The Mets dropped a trio of players from the 40-man roster: relievers Grant Hartwig and Alex Young and outfield prospect Alex Ramirez. Young was the only member of that group who’d been eligible for arbitration. The southpaw pitched well in a depth role, but the Mets didn’t want to keep him around at a $1.4MM projection. Hartwig made four appearances this year, while the 21-year-old Ramirez (a former top prospect) had a .210/.291/.299 showing in Double-A.
  • The Nationals announced that they have non-tendered right-hander Kyle Finnegan and Tanner Rainey, which you can read more about here.
  • The Padres dropped four players from the roster: righties Luis Patino and Logan Gillaspie, outfielder Bryce Johnson and infielder Mason McCoy. Patino, who underwent Tommy John surgery last summer, was the only member of the group who’d been eligible for arbitration. The other three cuts are simply about roster maintenance. The Padres could try to bring anyone from that group back on minor league deals.
  • The Phillies will not be tendering a contract to outfielder Austin Hays, which MLBTR covered earlier today.
  • The Pirates are expected to non-tender first baseman/outfielder Connor Joe and outfielder Bryan De La Cruz, per Alex Stumpf of MLB.com (Bluesky link). They are also non-tendering right-hander Hunter Stratton, per Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (X link). Joe was projected for a salary of $3.2MM next year and De La Cruz $4MM. Stratton had not yet qualified for arbitration. Joe has been around league average at the plate in his career but doing more damage against lefties. De La Cruz has hit .253/.297/.407 in his career for a wRC+ of 90. Startton had a 3.58 ERA this year but his season was ended by knee surgery, giving him an uncertain path forward.
  • The Reds have non-tendered right-hander Ian Gibaut, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Bluesky link). The righty was projected for a salary of $800K. He spent the vast majority of 2024 on the injured list due to arm trouble and only made two appearances on the season.
  • The Rockies moved on from starter Cal Quantrill and second baseman Brendan Rodgers, which MLBTR covered here.

Yankees Interested In Luis Rengifo, Kyle Finnegan, Lucas Erceg

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11:53am: Jorge Castillo of ESPN reports that the Yanks are more focused on pitching and acquiring Díaz is unlikely, which could perhaps apply to Rengifo as well.

11:49am: The trade deadline is just a few hours away now but teams are still scouring the market for upgrades. Per Jon Heyman of The New York Post on X, the Yankees have infielders Yandy Díaz and Luis Rengifo on their radar, as well as relievers Tanner Scott, Pete Fairbanks, Kyle Finnegan and Lucas Erceg. He adds that they could also look to add a starting pitching but might not meet the asking prices.

Some of those guys have already been connected to the Yankees in rumors. The connections with Rengifo, Finnegan and Erceg are new but also in line with their previously-reported pursuits. Even after adding Jazz Chisholm Jr. to the roster, they have seemingly still been looking for more infield help, which Rengifo could certainly help with.

The 27-year-old is in his third straight above-average offensive season. Since the start of the 2022 campaign, he’s hit .272/.323/.433 for a wRC+ of 110. He’s also stolen 35 bases in that time while bouncing to all three outfield spots and three infield positions to the left of first base. He’s not considered a strong defender at any one position but the ability to move all around is certainly attractive.

The Yanks are still trying to figure out their best alignment at the moment. Chisholm’s first game as a Yankee was in center field, where he has been spending most of his time in recent years. But then the Yanks moved him to third base last night, a position he had never played before. Now that Giancarlo Stanton is back and in the designated hitter slot, Aaron Judge moved to center field, flanked by Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo. Acquiring another infielder could result in Chisholm moving to second and bumping out Gleyber Torres, or perhaps Verdugo will get nudged out of the outfield mix.

Rengifo is making a modest $4.4MM this year, with roughly $1.5MM left to be paid out. That’s likely attractive to the Yankees as they are slated to be a third-time payor of the competitive balance tax and well above the top tier, meaning they will pay a 110% tax on anything they add to the ledger. He can also be retained via arbitration for 2025 and could perhaps slide into next year’s second base job with Torres slated for free agency after the current season. Verdugo is also an impending free agent, so perhaps Chisholm could be in the outfield with Rengifo on the infield. There’s also the looming Soto free agency to consider, though the Yanks are expected to be aggressive in trying to re-sign him. Rengifo has also been connected to clubs such as the Red Sox, Dodgers and Royals in recent weeks.

The extra year of control means that the Angels don’t have to move on from Rengifo but there would be logic in doing so as they haven’t been meaningfully competitive for quite some time. Now that Shohei Ohtani is gone and Mike Trout is having annual trouble staying on the field, the odds of them turning things around between now and the end of 2025 seem long.

Bullpen adds are generally on the radar of all contending teams and the Yanks are surely exploring all options there. Finnegan has been the Nationals’ closer for quite some time but is nearing the end of his window of club control, with one year remaining after this one. The Nats have already traded Hunter Harvey and Lane Thomas, two players that were also controllable through 2025, and Finnegan seems likely to move today as well.

He has a career 3.52 earned run average in 272 appearances. He has struck out 23.9% of batters faced, given out walks at a 9.4% rate and kept the ball on the ground at a 46.8% clip. That includes racking up 28 saves this year with a 3.48 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and 40.5% ground ball rate. He’s making $5.1MM this year.

Erceg can still be retained by the Athletics for five seasons beyond this one, but he’s a late bloomer who is now 29 years old despite his limited experience, which could tempt them to sell high. He has a 3.68 ERA this year, 26.3% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate and 50.5% ground ball rate. The fact that he’s pre-arbitration and therefore making a modest salary is surely appealing to the Yankees but the cost might be high. Even rental relievers are netting big returns at this year’s deadline so getting Erceg might take an uncomfortable haul.

Dodgers Trade Rumors: Flaherty, Finnegan, Paredes, Hoerner, Rengifo

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The Dodgers are expected to be very active prior to the July 30 trade deadline, as while Los Angeles still has the fourth-best winning percentage (.585) in baseball, the team is just 10-12 in its last 22 games.  Injuries all over the roster have left L.A. with plenty of holes to fill, and the Dodgers are therefore casting a wide berth in exploring possible deadline pickups.

With starting pitching a particular need, Tigers right-hander Jack Flaherty is a Dodgers target, according to Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press.  Nationals reliever Kyle Finnegan, Rays third baseman Isaac Paredes, Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner, and Angels infielder Luis Rengifo have also received consideration, as per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, since the Dodgers are trying to shore up both their bullpen and the infield.

Since Flaherty is a free agent after the season, he is one of the more obvious rental candidates available considering that the Tigers (despite some good recent play) are still only 52-54 and more on the outskirts of the AL wild card race.  As noted by both Petzold and Nightengale, Detroit’s asking price for Flaherty is both high and somewhat straight-forward — teams will have to offer the Tigers something they deem more valuable than the compensatory draft pick the Tigers would receive this winter if Flaherty rejects the team’s inevitable qualifying offer and signs elsewhere.

The Dodgers’ rotation needs have somewhat lessened now that Tyler Glasnow is back from the injured list and Clayton Kershaw has made his season debut, but L.A. still has a whopping nine pitchers on the IL.  Walker Buehler is on a Triple-A rehab assignment, though Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s timetable is still unclear, and Yamamoto will be out until late August at the earliest as he recovers from a triceps injury.  Los Angeles did feel comfortable enough in its pitching depth to deal James Paxton to the Red Sox, but Flaherty is more of a front-of-the-rotation type that could conceivably start a playoff game.

Likewise, Finnegan could slot right into what has become something of a fluid late-game mix.  Evan Phillips is still ostensibly the Dodgers’ top choice as closer, though his recent struggles have brought Daniel Hudson and Blake Treinen into the picture as save candidates.  Manager Dave Roberts recently stated that Phillips could be deployed in any high-leverage situation late in games rather than specifically just the ninth inning, which opens the door for L.A. to solidify things by landing another experienced closer like Finnegan.

Since Finnegan is arbitration-controlled through 2025, he’d also be able to help Los Angeles next season in addition to this year’s playoff run.  This extra year of control means that the Nationals would get an even nicer return by moving him at the deadline, though D.C. might consider waiting until the offseason to gauge offers if nobody steps up with an acceptable enough trade package by Tuesday.  The Nats already got a good score in moving Hunter Harvey to the Royals earlier this month, and between the Harvey deal and yesterday’s trade of Jesse Winker to the Mets, Washington is clearly in sell mode.

The infield targets all come with varying degrees of control beyond just the 2024 season.  Rengifo is arb-controlled through 2025, Paredes is arb-controlled through 2027 as a Super Two player, and Hoerner is signed through 2026 via the three-year, $35MM deal he inked prior to the 2023 season.  That extension started this year, so Hoerner is owed roughly $3.9MM in salary for the rest of 2024, as well as $11.5MM in 2025 and $12MM in 2026.

Sticking with Hoerner, that is a decent-sized price tag for a Dodgers team already far over the highest tier of luxury tax penalization.  In terms of both the actual salary and the added tax hit, Hoerner’s dollar value would come at more than double the size of his contract, as the Dodgers have an additional repeater penalty for exceeding the Competitive Balance Tax in each of the previous three seasons.  This cost could be reduced if Los Angeles sent another contract to Chicago in return, or the Cubs could absorb more of Hoerner’s deal if the Dodgers improved the value of the trade package.

The latter scenario could involve better prospects, or perhaps more win-now types of players for a Cubs team that is still aiming to contend in 2025, even if 2024 is looking like a wash.  Moving a reliable everyday player like Hoerner would be a bold move for the Cubs, yet for a team that has a good amount of middle infield depth, trading Hoerner could allow Chicago to upgrade in other areas.

A defensive standout at either middle infield position, Hoerner could give the Dodgers an answer to their shortstop woes, as both Mookie Betts and Miguel Rojas are injured.  Installing Hoerner at short would allow Betts to play second base (or even move back to the outfield) when he is healthy, and Rojas and Gavin Lux would then assume depth roles.  With Hoerner locked up through 2026, the Dodgers could then explore returning Betts back to right field altogether, or perhaps at least limit him to second base when he does get infield work.

Rengifo is a utility player who can play all over the diamond, though he doesn’t offer strong glovework at any position.  The switch-hitter does bring more offense than Hoerner, and Rengifo has returned in seemingly good health after a three-week absence due to wrist inflammation.  Perhaps the biggest obstacle to a Rengifo trade for the Dodgers would be the fact that the two L.A. teams are infrequent trade partners.  Ironically, Rengifo was part of an infamously scuttled trade between the Angels and Dodgers in February 2020, which reportedly left Halos owner Arte Moreno upset at the idea of ever again doing business with his local rivals.

Conversely, the Rays and Dodgers have lined up on several trades over the years, including the blockbuster deal that sent Glasnow to Los Angeles just this past offseason.  This could help the Dodgers in working out a Paredes trade, who would likely play third base with Max Muncy’s recovery from an oblique strain still up in the air.  Since Muncy is signed through at least 2025 and Paredes would be a longer-term addition, one of the two could likely be moved to second base in 2025, which also helps the Dodgers’ middle infield picture to some extent.  The Rangers, Astros, and Mariners are among the other teams who have been linked to Paredes in recent rumors, though intriguingly, Nightengale writes that the Yankees and Dodgers are in a “bidding war” over the All-Star infielder.

Phillies Showing Interest In Lane Thomas, Kyle Finnegan

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The Phillies are about as well-positioned as any team with the deadline approaching. While Philadelphia has tailed off lately and is playing at a .500 pace this month, they’re nine games clear of the Braves in the NL East. They hold a three-game edge on the Dodgers for the top record in the National League and have arguably the most well-rounded roster in MLB.

They’re obviously positioned as buyers and should at least make some additions around the margins. They’ve been seeking a right-handed hitting outfielder for the last couple weeks. The bullpen has fallen on hard times this month, making that another obvious area for potential upgrade.

One of Philadelphia’s division rivals would make for a natural trade partner. Matt Gelb of the Athletic reports that the Phils have expressed interest in Nationals’ outfielder Lane Thomas and closer Kyle Finnegan. Washington could market both players, each of whom is under arbitration control for one more season. The Nats are considering offers on players they control for this season and next. They already dealt one such player, setup man Hunter Harvey, to the Royals in one of the more impactful moves in what has been a slow-moving deadline season.

Thomas is a right-handed hitter who does the vast majority of his damage in favorable platoon situations. He is destroying lefties at a .329/.414/.518 clip over 99 plate appearances this season. While a half-season platoon split is an extremely small sample, Thomas has been a lefty masher throughout his career. He’s a .307/.369/.520 hitter against southpaws. Thomas has produced below-average numbers versus righties. That has again been the case this year, as he’s hitting .211/.269/.347 without the platoon advantage.

The Nats have maintained they view Thomas as more than a short-side platoon bat. He has been in the starting lineup for 73 of the team’s 102 games. That includes a couple starts in center field, but Thomas is best served in a corner. He’s a middling defender even in right field.

Thomas isn’t the answer if the Phils are looking to upgrade over Johan Rojas in center field. Philadelphia would like a lefty-hitting complement for Brandon Marsh in left. Marsh has been an above-average bat (.274/.350/.448) against righties over his career. He hasn’t done anything against left-handers, striking out more than 40% of the time en route to a .211/.268/.289 slash.

Gelb writes that the Phillies aren’t exclusively looking at right-handed hitters in their outfield search. They could upgrade on either Rojas or Nick Castellanos in right if they landed an everyday player. A Thomas-Marsh platoon in left would yield excellent results, although it remains to be seen if the Phils are willing to meet Washington’s asking price to immediately curtail Thomas’ playing time. The 28-year-old outfielder is playing on a $5.45MM salary.

Finnegan is a more valuable trade asset. He was a first-time All-Star this summer after a few seasons of quietly strong work at the back of the Washington ’pen. Finnegan has worked as their closer for most of the past four years. After three straight seasons allowing between three and four earned runs per nine, he carries a 2.32 mark over 42 2/3 frames. Finnegan is 28 of 32 in save chances and has solid peripherals.

The righty has fanned 26% of batters faced against an 8.3% walk percentage. He’s sitting north of 97 MPH with his fastball and is getting swinging strikes at a decent 11.8% clip. Finnegan’s stuff is probably a tick below that of the top handful of relievers in the game, but he’s a consistently effective presence with ample ninth inning experience.

Philadelphia’s closing situation has been in flux with José Alvarado scuffling lately. Gregory Soto took the ninth in a tied game today against Minnesota. He hit a batter and allowed a walk-off single after a sacrifice bunt. Soto has been prone to bouts of wildness throughout his career, making him an imperfect fit for the ninth. Finnegan, who is making $5.1MM, has been a much more consistent strike-thrower.

Thomas and Finnegan may be obvious fits for the Phillies’ needs, but they’re surely two of many players the front office is considering. Acquiring either player (or both, in a package deal) could be complicated by the difficulty of trading within the division. Detroit’s Mark Canha, Oakland’s Brent Rooker and the Angels’ Kevin Pillar are among other righty-hitting outfielders who’d make sense as speculative targets. (USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tied the Phils to Rooker earlier this month.) There are no shortage of relievers who’ll move in the next few days, with Miami’s Tanner Scott and the Halos’ Carlos Estévez clear candidates as rental closers on bad teams.

One area which is evidently not a priority: the rotation. Gelb writes that the Phils are not emphasizing the starting staff and remain reluctant to part with their top prospects. Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweeted yesterday that the Phils were discussing Garrett Crochet and Jack Flaherty. Philadelphia already has a strong starting five, so it’d be very surprising to see them beat offers by other teams that much more desperately need rotation help for those top-of-the-market starters.

Nationals Notes: Thomas, Finnegan, Cavalli

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Nationals GM Mike Rizzo spoke to reporters, including Bobby Blanco of MASN, yesterday for the first time since the club shipped right-hander Hunter Harvey to the Royals in exchange for third base prospect Cayden Wallace and the 39th selection in the 2024 draft. Rizzo was effusive in his praise of Harvey, who he described as an “organizational success story,” but noted that he felt that the trade was “important for us to do…for the future of the franchise.”

The topic of the Harvey deal, which occurred in spite of the right-hander being under team control for the 2025 season, led naturally to questions regarding the status of outfielder Lane Thomas and closer Kyle Finnegan, both of whom are also under control for one season after 2024. When asked the availability of the pair, Rizzo confirmed that both are available, though he emphasized that the extra year of control means he isn’t necessarily in a rush to trade either player. When discussing Thomas, Rizzo said that because the club has him under control beyond the 2024 campaign, “we’re going to do a deal that we’re comfortable with. And if we don’t, we won’t do a deal.” He went on to say that he viewed Finnegan “The same way, exactly” and that the club was “not going to get rid of [Finnegan] easy.”

While it’s not entirely clear what the Nationals’ current asking price is for either Thomas or Finnegan, it’s hardly a surprise that the club’s GM is indicating that he won’t be dealing either player unless his price is met. Thomas, 29 next month, has been a steady regular for the Nationals throughout their rebuild with a .256/.317/.438 slash line (106 wRC+) since first joining the club partway through the 2021 season. He enjoyed something of a breakout season last year, slugging 28 home runs while swiping 20 bases and hitting a solid .268/.315/.468 in 156 games for the Nats. Thomas hasn’t hit for quite as much power in 2024 but has been an even more prolific base stealer, swiping 24 bags in just 306 trips to the plate so far this year. In a market without many quality hitters who are obviously available, it’s easy to imagine Thomas getting interest from clubs looking for help in the outfield such as the Mariners, Dodgers, or Phillies.

As for Finnegan, the 32-year-old is in the midst of a career year in his fourth season as the Nationals’ closer. In 40 2/3 innings of work this year, the righty has already racked up 26 saves while pitching to a sterling 2.43 ERA and striking out a solid 25.8% of batters faced. Home runs have been an issue for Finnegan in his career as he’s allowed 15.7% of his fly balls to leave the yard, including 16.7% this year. That’s left him with a somewhat pedestrian 4.05 FIP, but his lengthy track record as a quality high-leverage relief arm with Washington (where he’s posted a career 3.37 ERA in 267 1/3 innings of work) should nonetheless make him among the most attractive relief arms available for teams in need for help in the late innings.

In other Nationals news, manager Davey Martinez told reporters (including Mark Zuckerman of MASN) that longtime top pitching prospect Cade Cavalli has been dealing with a bout of “dead arm” while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery he underwent in early 2023. That issue was compounded further by Cavalli catching the flu, and that led the Nationals to restart the right-hander’s throwing program. The right-hander last appeared in a minor league rehab game on June 21 and has only just begun to ramp back up, though Martinez suggested that the club still expects him to pitch this year. Cavalli has just one big league start under his belt but looked good at the Triple-A level during his last full season back in 2022, when he posted a 3.71 ERA in 20 starts while striking out 25.9% of batters faced.

Nationals Preparing To Be Deadline Sellers

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The Nationals have been on the periphery of the postseason picture for much of the season but are preparing to approach the trade deadline as a seller, per Ken Rosenthal, Katie Woo and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. Washington will be open to offers both on potential free agents and players signed/controlled for only one additional season, per the report. The Nats’ group of impending free agents include outfielder Jesse Winker, lefty Patrick Corbin, righty reliever Dylan Floro, struggling slugger Joey Gallo and the currently injured Trevor Williams. Of even more interest will be outfielder Lane Thomas, setup man Hunter Harvey and closer Kyle Finnegan, each of whom is controlled through the 2025 season via arbitration.

The vibe in D.C. is high at the moment following the debut of top-ranked prospect James Wood and the All-Star selection of shortstop CJ Abrams. But Washington has dropped 11 of its past 15 games to fall seven under .500. At 16.5 games back in the NL East, there’s no hope of surging back to the front of the division, and in the Wild Card chase, the Nats are 5.5 games back of the third spot with six teams to pass in order to get into the fray.

The Nationals are already three years into a rebuilding process that kicked off in 2021 with trades of Max Scherzer, Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber (among many others) and continued into the summer of 2022 with the deadline blockbuster that shipped Juan Soto to San Diego in exchange for a package of five young players headlined by Abrams, Wood and current staff leader MacKenzie Gore. Selling off some short-term pieces at this year’s deadline isn’t a sign that said plan has faltered or a setback necessarily; for much of the season, the Nats appeared ahead of schedule but are now settling into the type of position most expected them to occupy heading into the 2024 campaign.

Among Washington’s slate of rental players, Winker stands as the most productive healthy option. He’s back in vintage form after a pair of seasons ruined by knee and neck injuries that both required surgery in the 2022-23 offseason. In 337 trips to the plate, the former Reds, Brewers and Mariners outfielder is hitting .268/.382/.436 with ten home runs and a career-high 12 steals. Winker’s 13.6% walk rate is more than five percentage points ahead of the league average, and he’s striking out at a manageable 22.3% clip.

Winker has long had platoon issues, but the Nats have given him 80 plate appearances against southpaws this season and he’s held his own, hitting .250/.344/.363. It should be noted that his small-sample production against lefties is aided by a bulky .358 average on balls in play and comes in spite of a huge 29% strikeout rate (10 points higher than his mark against righties). Winker probably can’t be expected to continue his output against lefties, but he’s punishing righties just as he always has when healthy: .275/.397/.465 with nine of his 10 home runs and six of his 17 doubles. Winker signed a minor league deal with a $2MM base salary, making him an ultra-affordable option for any team seeking a quality left-handed bat to add to its DH/outfield mix.

Floro, 33, is in the midst of a nice rebound season. He’s on a one-year, $2.25MM deal and has produced 43 2/3 innings of 2.06 ERA ball. His 20.5% strikeout rate is a couple percentage points shy of average, but his 6.4% walk rate is a couple points better than par. Floro sports a strong 50.4% grounder rate as well. However, he’s yet to allow even one home run this season, and it’s not sustainable for any pitcher to see every single one of his fly-balls stay in the park. Metrics like SIERA (3.50) and xFIP (3.45), which normalize homer-to-flyball rate, view Floro as a solid arm but not the dominant force his raw ERA might suggest. He should still draw plenty of interest as an affordable veteran with some track record.

Corbin’s $35MM salary is going to nullify any trade interest unless the Nats are willing to pay down almost the entire sum. The first season of his six-year, $140MM contract with the Nats went beautifully, as Corbin helped lead a deep rotation and stepped up as a key postseason arm en route to Washington’s Cinderella World Series run. He’s posted a 5.60 ERA since, including a 5.49 mark in 100 frames this year.

That said, the veteran has been pitching well of late. Corbin sports a 4.53 ERA dating back to Memorial Day weekend and has delivered a 3.81 ERA in 28 1/3 frames over his past five starts. A team just looking for some veteran innings in the five spot could look at Corbin as a cheap solution if the Nats eat most or all of the remaining salary.

If healthy, Williams might stand as the clearest and most coveted rental piece the Nats have to offer. He made 11 starts, and though he was averaging just five frames per appearances, Williams logged a pristine 2.22 ERA with a solid 21% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate. As with Floro, he’s been extremely fortunate with home runs (just two in 56 2/3 frames), and a solid but unspectacular K-BB profile points to some ERA regression if that home run trend doesn’t continue. But Williams is in the second season of a two-year, $13MM contract and would be an affordable rotation option. He’s been out since early June with a strained muscle in his forearm.

Also on the injured list is Gallo, who was struggling at career-worst levels prior to a hamstring strain. He’s hitting .164/.285/.321 with a glaring 43% strikeout rate and five homers in 165 plate appearances. Between that line and Gallo’s injury, it’s hard to envision any trade value even if he’s healthy enough to return before July 30. He’s more a DFA candidate than a trade candidate.

Looking to the Nationals’ more controllable pieces, Thomas and the bullpen duo of Finnegan and Harvey will draw wide-reaching interest. A deal for Thomas could be difficult to line up, depending on how the Nats price him. At last year’s deadline, Washington was valuing Thomas as an everyday outfielder, whereas many other clubs were viewing him more as a potential platoon piece.

That perception from other clubs won’t be different in 2024. Thomas has never hit righties much but is slashing a dismal .208/.262/.343 against them in 2024. Conversely, he’s always hit well against southpaws and is even better than his career line in 2024, hitting .338/.407/.563. Thomas is an absolute menace to southpaw pitchers, and he’s perhaps deceptively fast. Statcast ranks him in the 94th percentile of MLB players in average sprint speed, and Thomas has already swiped 21 bags — though he’s also been caught seven times. He’s making $5.45MM this season and will be owed one more raise in arbitration this winter before hitting free agency post-2025.

Both Finnegan and Harvey are on track for free agency in the 2025-26 offseason as well. Finnegan has saved 23 games and posted a tidy 2.17 ERA in 37 1/3 frames. He’s averaged a hefty 97.4 mph on his heater while recording a 26.5% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate and 42.7% ground-ball rate. After a rough start in terms of his command, Finnegan has reined in the walks, yielding only a 5.8% rate over his past 32 innings.

Harvey was arguably even more appealing for much of the season, though a recent rough patch could have altered that. His $2.325MM salary is less than half Finnegan’s $5.1MM mark, he throws even harder, and his strikeout/walk/ground-ball rates were the better of the two for the bulk of the current campaign.

Some recent struggles have ballooned Harvey’s ERA to 4.40 — more than two runs higher than the 2.08 mark he carried into the month of June. He’s been tagged for 14 runs in his past 12 2/3 innings. In that time, he’s walked 9.1% of his opponents (more than double his rate over the first two months) and been tagged for a grisly 2.13 homers per nine frames. For a pitcher with a lengthy injury history — Harvey still has just 166 2/3 career innings despite debuting in 2019 — that could be a particular concern among bullpen-needy clubs. But the affordable salary, extra year of control, 98.1 mph average heater and K-BB profile should all generate interest.

One other name to consider is journeyman righty Derek Law, who’s posted a 3.35 ERA in 53 2/3 innings of relief already and is controllable through 2025. Law has fanned 21.2% of opponents against a 6.2% walk rate but has been wildly inconsistent dating back to his 2016 debut campaign. He’s earning $1.5MM this season and could be a sensible middle-innings arm for a team looking at low-cost means of deepening the ’pen.

Nats Notes: Deadline, Winker, Hassell, Wood, Crews

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The Nationals have received trade interest in veterans Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey and Lane Thomas but haven’t considered dealing any veteran pieces just yet, reports Jon Morosi of MLB Network. Washington, even with a sub-.500 record (35-36), is tied with the Padres for the final Wild Card spot in the National League at the moment and has not yet made a determination on how to approach this year’s trade deadline, Morosi adds.

It’s sensible for teams to inquire with the Nats, who entered the season as a playoff long-shot after spending the past two years in a rebuilding pattern. The Nats have outplayed expectations thanks to myriad factors (e.g. breakouts from MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin and Trevor Williams; a stronger-than-expected debut for lefty Mitchell Parker; a big step forward by CJ Abrams; a rebound by Jesse Winker). Those positive developments, plus widespread mediocrity in the National League, have thrust the Nationals into postseason conversations in mid-June. Williams’ recent flexor strain is a big damper on the team’s solid showing this year, but it’s only natural that GM Mike Rizzo and his staff aren’t yet ready to concede that they’ll be deadline sellers.

The next six weeks will be pivotal for the Nats. Holding the status quo or even playing winning ball between now and July 30 could push the Nationals to function as buyers. They may not be keen on dealing prospects for short-term rentals in a season like this, but targeting some names with multiple years of club control remaining feels plausible. On the other side of the coin, if the Nats fall a few games back in the standings and/or incur further injury problems of note, then listening on short-term veterans would be far likelier.

All three of the names listed by Morosi are controlled only through the 2025 season. Finnegan and Harvey would both draw widespread interest among contenders, given the perennial demand for bullpen help among playoff hopefuls. Harvey, in particular, has been dominant with a 28.3% strikeout rate and 5.5% walk rate en route to a 2.75 ERA. Finnegan leads the team with 20 saves and a terrific 1.78 ERA, though he’s benefited hugely from a microscopic .157 BABIP and a sky-high 94.7% strand rate — neither of which feels sustainable long-term.

Thomas drew interest at last summer’s trade deadline, but he’s likely someone the Nats value more than many of the teams seeking to acquire him. Washington reportedly priced him like an everyday player on last summer’s trade market — which is also how they use him — but Thomas carries enormous platoon splits and could be seen by other clubs as a player best deployed in a timeshare. He’s batting .327/.390/.588 against lefties this season (166 wRC+) but has an awful .196/.256/.330 output against righties (65 wRC+). His career splits aren’t quite that dramatic but are quite stark: .305/.364/.524 versus left-handers (141 wRC+) compared to .223/.290/.392 versus right-handers (86 wRC+).

The next few weeks will be pivotal for Rizzo and his lieutenants as they chart a course for this year’s deadline planning. If the Nats fall several games out of the race, all three of the names listed by Morosi could feasibly hit the market, and they likely wouldn’t be alone. Third baseman Nick Senzel and reliever Derek Law are also only controlled through 2025 as well. Veterans Dylan Floro and Eddie Rosario are free agents at the end of the current season, as are the aforementioned Williams and Winker.

Speaking of Winker, he had an injury scare over the weekend when he felt knee pain after taking a big turn at first base, slamming on the brakes and (unsuccessfully) diving back to the bag. He exited the game two innings later. Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com reports that Winker underwent an MRI that thankfully came back clean. He’s listed as day-to-day for now.

Winker, 30, isn’t hitting for much power this season but is drawing walks at his typically lofty rate (13.4%) and has made significantly better contact than he did over the past two seasons in a pair of down years with the Mariners and Brewers. He’s batting .265/.378/.390 with six homers and ten doubles through 268 plate appearances. Like Thomas, he’s better utilized in a platoon setting but has been an everyday player in Washington. Winker, to his credit, has a roughly league-average .239/.345/.338 slash in 84 plate appearances against fellow lefties, but he’s a career .210/.325/.338 hitter (89 wRC+) in left-on-left situations, compared to .279/.383/.467 (130 wRC+) against righties.

Eventual trades of Winker, Rosario and/or Thomas could open the door for any number of Nationals farmhands at the big league level. One near-MLB-ready option, Robert Hassell III, doesn’t seem as though he’ll be an option anytime soon, however. The Nats placed Hassell on the minor league injured list last week, and TalkNats.com reports that he’s dealing with another wrist injury and that the team plans to proceed cautiously. Hassell has had multiple wrist injuries in the past, including a broken hamate bone that necessitated surgery.

One of the most notable prospects acquired in the Nationals’ blockbuster trade of Juan Soto to the Padres, Hassell opened the season with a .278/.369/.369 slash in 215 plate appearances at the Double-A level. Those numbers don’t jump out, but they’re about 14% better than average in his currently pitcher-friendly environment, by measure of wRC+. They’re also a sizable step forward from the .225/.316/.324 batting line recorded by Hassell at the same minor league level last year (476 plate appearances).

Both Hassell and uber-prospect James Wood are on the minor league injured list at the moment — the latter due to a hamstring strain. Wood, in particular, could be an option to make his big league debut later this summer, with Andrew Golden of The Washington Post relaying on X today that Wood could return to game action this week. But Hassell could force his way into that conversation as well if he’s cleared to return sooner than later and continues to show improvement over last season. His prospect stock has taken a notable hit since the time of that swap, but he’s maintained strong plate discipline (11.6% walk rate) and cut his strikeout rate from last year’s alarming 31.9% to a far more palatable 21.4% in 2024.

Dylan Crews will also be in the mix, as he’s being promoted to Triple-A, per @PROducerIOTB on X. That’s come on the heels of Crews hitting .274/.343/.446 in Double-A this year while stealing 15 bases.

Nationals Hope To Add Pitching This Offseason

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Nationals president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo spoke this week about the upcoming offseason, with Andrew Golden of The Washington Post relaying some the details. Rizzo stated that the club is looking to bolster both its starting and relief pitching, as well as mentioning a middle-of-the-order bat.

That the club is open to additions all over the roster is hardly surprising since they have been aggressively rebuilding for a while now. The past few years have seen Trea Turner, Max Scherzer, Juan Soto and many others flipped for prospects, leading to the Nats finishing last in the National League East three years running. The 2023 club won 71 games, a jump of 16 from the dismal results of 2022, but there were also some less-encouraging signs. The club had a run differential of -145, second-worst in the National League, ahead of just the Rockies. They outpaced their expected win-loss record of 66-96 thanks to some help from a record of 28-21 in one-run games and a 6-2 mark in extra innings.

On the pitching side, the club had a collective earned run average of 5.02, a mark that topped just the Royals, Athletics and Rockies. The starting staff and the relief corps were equally ineffective, as both groups had matching ERAs at that 5.02 figure.

Stephen Strasburg is still on the roster, although he won’t be a factor going forward. It’s been known for some time that his battle with thoracic outlet syndrome isn’t going to allow him to compete at the major league level anymore. He and the Nats were discussing a retirement deal last year, even though his contract runs through 2026, but the club walked away and he was activated from the IL earlier week. Both Rizzo and Scott Boras, Strasburg’s agent, admit that the righty’s pitching days are done. “Medically, it’s going to be difficult to see him pitching again at the big league level,” Rizzo said, per Golden. “We understand where he’s at physically. We have understood it since last year, so that hasn’t changed.” While coming to some sort of agreement about his retirement would allow the club to free up a roster spot, that doesn’t seem imminent. “The roster spot is important,” Rizzo says. “But there’s certain rules and protocols that have to be met within the CBA to conclude these types of things when [players] are under contract.” He didn’t clarify which parts of the CBA are currently standing in the way of Strasburg’s retirement.

Without Strasburg, the rotation currently consists of Patrick Corbin, Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin and Trevor Williams. Corbin hasn’t been terribly effective lately, with his strikeout rate having dropped in each of the past four years. But he will likely continue to hold a place based on his contract. He’s set to make $35MM next year, the final year of his deal. Since he’s a fairly reliable innings eater, the Nats will likely give him the ball every fifth day as they manage the workloads of their younger pitchers.

Gray had a 3.91 ERA last year but may have been lucky to do so. His 20.5% strikeout rate, 11.5% walk rate and 37.8% ground ball rate were all worse than league average. An 80.4% strand rate likely helped to keep some runs off the board, which is why he had a 4.93 FIP and 5.08 SIERA. Gore had better peripherals but allowed more home runs, leading to a 4.42 ERA. Both of them are still fairly young, Gray going into his age-26 campaign and Gore his age-25, and neither has reached arbitration yet. They will be in the rotation again next year as the Nats hope they take a step forward in 2024.

Williams signed a two-year deal with the Nats last offseason but the first season of that contract didn’t go especially well as he posted a 5.55 ERA over 30 starts. Similar to Corbin, he could serve an innings-eating role but the club is likely less committed to Williams. He’s only making $7MM in 2024 so his deal would be easier to walk away from. Irvin had a 4.61 ERA in 2023 with fairly uninspiring peripherals.

The Nats also have Joan Adon, Thaddeus Ward, Jackson Rutledge and Roddery Muñoz on the roster, though each of those guys is likely stuck in a depth role until they have better results. Given the current options, it’s fair to see how Rizzo could find room for an external addition or two.

It’s unclear who the Nats would target but they kept things fairly modest last year. Apart from the two-year contract for Williams, they stuck to one-year deals for bounceback candidates like Jeimer Candelario and Dominic Smith. If they set similar targets this winter, they could perhaps look to pitchers like Wade Miley, Martín Pérez, Kyle Gibson, Frankie Montas, Luis Severino and others.

On the bullpen side of things, there are plenty of arms available they could look to add, but it also sounds like subtraction is possible. Rizzo says other clubs have been asking about righties Kyle Finnegan and Hunter Harvey, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com. It’s not a surprise to hear that the two are drawing interest, both because of their strong results and because they also were in trade rumors at the deadline a few months back.

Both players stayed and Finnegan finished the year with a 3.76 ERA, racking up 28 saves in the process. Harvey’s ERA was almost a full run better at 2.82, striking out 28.5% of batters while notching 10 saves and 19 holds. The Nats don’t need to move either, since they are both controllable via arbitration through 2025. However, performance from relievers can be volatile and an injury can happen at any time. The Nats could open their next competitive window in the next two years but there would be some sense to flipping these guys for players that could be more meaningful pieces of that window.

As for the middle-of-the-order bat Rizzo referenced, there are plenty of options available, depending on how aggressive they are willing to be. First baseman Dominic Smith and third baseman Carter Kieboom are both non-tender candidates. If Smith were out of the picture, Joey Meneses could take on some extra first base time, or the club could look outside. In the outfield, Lane Thomas is coming off a solid season but did most of his damage against lefties. Stone Garrett also had a good year but finished it on the injured list due to a fractured leg. Victor Robles is coming off another frustrating season.

If the Nats wanted to make a splash, they could target players like Teoscar Hernández, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. or Rhys Hoskins, but other options include Tommy Pham, Jason Heyward, Adam Duvall and Joc Pederson.

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