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Luis Severino

Red Sox Rumors: Second Base, Rotation, Turner, Outfield

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The Red Sox have a clear need at second base this winter, and as recently noted, newly installed chief baseball officer Craig Breslow indicated to reporters that he feels a trade is likelier than a free-agent signing. Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic adds some more context from Breslow’s media session, noting that he called the “ideal” acquisition a right-handed bat and plus defender.

Second base was a black hole in the Boston lineup last year. Ten different players saw time there — Christian Arroyo, Enmanuel Valdez, Luis Urias and Pablo Reyes primarily — and combined for a .240/.286/.376 slash on the whole. Urias has since been traded to the Mariners. Arroyo was outrighted and became a free agent. Reyes and Valdez remain on the roster, but the former is a career .256/.318/.367 hitter who’s best suited for a utility role, while the latter has all of 149 MLB plate appearances to his name.

Veteran Whit Merrifield headlines the free-agent crop of second basemen, though bounceback candidates like Amed Rosario and Adam Frazier hold some appeal to clubs in search of help at second base as well. The trade market offers far more intriguing possibilities. The Reds have an enviable surplus of infield talent, and 2021 Rookie of the Year Jonathan India has been an oft-rumored candidate to change hands (though Cincinnati president Nick Krall downplayed the possibility recently). The Twins have their own glut of infield talent and are open to offers on veteran Jorge Polanco as they seek to reduce payroll and bolster the pitching staff. McCaffrey suggests that San Diego’s Ha-Seong Kim would be of interest if available, although that would presumably only be the case if the Padres continue to scale back payroll — and the prospect cost to acquire Kim would hardly be insignificant.

As one would expect for a newly hired baseball operations leader who’s trying to turn around a last-place team, Breslow has plenty of balls in the air at the moment. In addition to the pursuits at second base, Boston has also been active in the rotation market. Reports this week indicated they’re among the top suitors for Seth Lugo, and McCaffrey writes that the Sox were interested in Luis Severino before he signed with the Mets. Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets that the Sox had interest in a reunion with Eduardo Rodriguez but didn’t want to make a commitment with NPB newcomers Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga both still in play via free agency. The Sox have interest in both.

Beyond the pitching staff, the Sox remain engaged with Justin Turner about a potential reunion, Breslow confirmed yesterday (via Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe). Turner declined a player option with Boston after hitting .276/.345/.455 with 23 home runs in his first year with the team. That was a foregone conclusion, however, as the net $6.7MM value of that option (after factoring in the buyout he received) is well shy of what Turner can command in free agency, even at 39.

Breslow also suggested that he’d like to add a right-handed bat who can handle center field (via Abraham), though he stopped short of calling it a “need.” MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo tweets that Breslow also implied the Sox could stand pat in the outfield and head into the 2024 season with the current group of Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran and Ceddanne Rafaela, though that’s obviously an inexperienced group and a further addition clearly hasn’t been ruled out. Boston was linked to right-handed-hitting outfielders Michael A. Taylor and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. this week, though only the former is an option in center field (and a very good one, at that).

Mets Sign Luis Severino

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The Mets are reportedly in agreement with free agent starter Luis Severino on a one-year, $13MM guarantee. The deal also includes $2MM in performance bonuses. Severino, who is represented by Rep 1 Baseball, would receive $500K for reaching 27 starts and $750K apiece for his 29th and 31st start.

Luis Severino |Brad Penner-USA TODAY SportsSeverino, 30 in February, is a wild card of this winter’s free agent market. He once looked like one of the best pitchers in the majors but has spent the past five years either injured or ineffective or both. He made 63 starts over 2017 and 2018, throwing 384 2/3 innings with a 3.18 earned run average. He punched out 28.8% of batters faced while walking just 6.2% of them and keeping 45.8% of balls in play on the ground. FanGraphs calculated him as worth 11 wins above replacement over that two-year span, trailing just four pitchers around the league: Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom and Corey Kluber.

He and the Yankees agreed to a four-year, $40MM extension prior to 2019, with that deal also having a $15MM option for 2023. But shortly after that deal was signed, he ran into health problems. He only made three starts in the first year of that deal due to shoulder and lat injuries, then Tommy John surgery kept him off the field entirely in 2020 and for most of 2021. More lat issues came in 2022, but he was at least able to make 19 starts and log 102 innings with a 3.18 ERA, followed by a couple of playoff starts.

That relatively healthy showing was enough for the Yankees to trigger the player option for 2023. Another lat strain prevented him from making his season debut until May and then an oblique strain in September ended his season early. In the middle of those IL stints, he tossed 89 1/3 innings but with an awful 6.65 ERA. He struck out just 18.9% of opponents, a huge drop from his 27.7% rate in 2022.

Severino averaged 96.5 mph on his fastball in 2023, a bit down from his 97.6 from 2018. It’s higher than his 96.3 mph average from 2022, when he was still effective. His slider had a bigger drop, averaging 84.6 mph in this year whereas it sat 88-89 prior to his injury troubles. But he was still getting good results in 2022 with a slider that averaged 85.1 mph.

Despite the rough season, some club was going to take a chance on Severino’s track record and hope for a bounceback with better health. MLBTR predicted Severino to secure a contract of one-year and $14MM. His guarantee is just beneath that but the bonuses could help him climb to the other side.

That the Mets are the club to take the chance on Severino makes plenty of sense, with reporting from a couple of weeks ago suggesting they were interested. Last year’s struggles led them to trade Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander ahead of the deadline. Then Carlos Carrasco reached free agency and David Peterson required hip surgery that will force him to miss the start of next season.

All of that left the Mets with a 2024 rotation consisting of Kodai Senga and José Quintana in two spots. They had some candidates to fill out the back end, such as Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi and José Butto, but each of those guys can be optioned to the minors and make more sense as depth options than as part of the club’s Opening Day plans.

It’s still unclear exactly what kind of offseason the Mets are planning to have and this transaction won’t make that much clearer. The 2023 club had the highest payroll in baseball history but reporting from the deadline indicated that they may opt for a somewhat less-aggressive approach for 2024. But stepping back from unprecedented heights could still lead to plenty of activity, depending on the size of the step.

This deal is fairly modest by free agent standards but could always be paired with a larger move. For example, the Cardinals were looking for three starters this winter and started with one-year deals for Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson before a bigger three-year strike on Sonny Gray. Perhaps the Mets have a bigger move to come, having been connected to Yoshinobu Yamamoto. But time will tell if that kind of big strike is realistically in their plans.

For now, they’ve added a former star on a short-term deal. He could either help them return to contention or perhaps turn himself into a deadline trade chip. If he isn’t able to get back in good form, the Mets won’t have impacted their plans for competing in the long term.

In the short term, this seems like it will cost them more than the $13MM sticker price. According to Roster Resource, this move pushes the club’s competitive balance tax calculation to $288MM, well beyond next year’s base tax threshold of $237MM. The CBT features escalating penalties for paying in consecutive years and the Mets are set to be a third-time payor in 2024. That means they pay a 50% tax on all overages, 62% for spending over the $257MM line and 95% for going past the third line of $277MM. They could always shed salary somehow but they are already past the third line and not too far from the fourth line of $297MM, when their tax rate would jump to 110%. The tax isn’t calculated until the end of the season, so they could significantly alter all of these calculations between now and next fall, but it’s distinctly possible that they end up paying something close to double that $13MM figure that Severino will receive.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported Severino was nearing agreement with the Mets. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the sides were finalizing a one-year, $13MM deal that included $2MM in bonuses. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the specific bonus structure.

How Aggressive Will The Tigers Be This Winter?

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The ill-fated Miguel Cabrera extension is off the books in Detroit, leading to the most payroll flexibility the team has had in quite some time. As it stands, the only three players on guaranteed contracts for the 2024 season are Javier Baez, Mark Canha and Carson Kelly. That trio combines for $40MM in guaranteed salary. Only Baez is signed beyond the 2024 season. Detroit also has a small arbitration class. Left-hander Tarik Skubal, righty Casey Mize, catcher Jake Rogers and outfielder Akil Baddoo project to earn a combined $7.5MM, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Suffice it to say, there’s ample payroll space available in the Motor City. Detroit trotted out a payroll as high as $200MM back in 2017, albeit under the ownership of the late Mike Ilitch. Since his son, Chris, took over as the team’s control person, the Tigers haven’t fielded an Opening Day payroll north of $135MM. Then again, the Tigers have been rebuilding for much of Chris’ time in charge of the club, so aggressive spending hasn’t typically on the radar.

Many Tigers fans entered the current offseason expecting some degree of change in that regard, however. The AL Central is perhaps the sport’s weakest division, and the Tigers have some interesting young players emerging to form a core group. Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene both took big steps forward in 2023. Skubal returned from flexor surgery and pitched like a genuine top-of-the-rotation arm. Reese Olson looks like a mid-rotation piece. Kerry Carpenter has swatted 26 homers and hit .277/.334/.473 in his first 149 big league games. Former No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize will come back from Tommy John surgery in 2024. Jason Foley, Will Vest, Tyler Holton and Alex Lange all had nice years in the bullpen (Lange’s command issues notwithstanding). It’s easy to see the reasons for optimism.

At the same time, that doesn’t necessarily portend a return to the Tigers’ former status as one of the league’s most aggressive offseason spenders. For one thing, the now-former front office regime helmed by Al Avila attempted to reestablish the Tigers as just that when signing Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez. The former hasn’t worked out at all and now stands as one of baseball’s most immovable/undesirable contracts. The latter performed well enough to opt out of the remaining three years and $49MM after an uneven tenure in Detroit.

New president of baseball operations Scott Harris will surely be wary of further saddling the team with unwanted contracts. His most recent organization — the Giants, where he was GM — has a recent track record of clearly preferring shorter-term, manageable commitments in free agency. They haven’t inked a free agent for more than three years under Farhan Zaidi’s watch as president of baseball operations. That doesn’t mean Harris will operate from the exact same playbook, but it’s notable context nonetheless.

To that end, the general expectation surrounding the Tigers this winter has been that the team will at least one, if not two arms in free agency. Adding a bat to the middle of the lineup also seems like a sensible enough fit. The question is: to what extent are the Tigers willing to spend?

Recent reports have indicated that the Tigers have interest in both Seth Lugo and Kenta Maeda, for instance, but Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press wrote this morning that the Tigers prefer Lugo on a one-year deal. He’s understandably seeking a three-year pact after a breakout 2023 campaign. Petzold also reports that rebound candidate Luis Severino is on the Tigers’ radar. He’s likely to sign a one-year deal this winter. Maeda is generally expected to sign for no more than two years. Between those three targets, a preference for shorter-term additions seems to be on the table for the Tigers.

Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic frames things similarly in his latest mailbag, writing that the Tigers seem likelier to dish out multiple short-term deals — similar to last year’s one-year pact with Michael Lorenzen — than they are to ink a notable arm on a heftier deal. The Tigers reportedly checked in on Lance Lynn before he signed a one-year, $11MM deal with the Cardinals. Stavenhagen suggests that contracts of that nature (and the Cardinals’ one-year, $12MM deal with Kyle Gibson) are roughly what one could expect the Tigers to offer in free agency. Similarly, he writes that Canha could be the team’s most significant position-player acquisition this winter.

There’s no firm indication that the Tigers won’t be a bit more aggressive in free agency and pursue some notable names on multi-year deals. Unexpected market circumstances can always emerge, perhaps leading a team to land a major free agent they never expected early in the winter. The Twins surely didn’t enter the 2021-22 offseason expecting to sign Carlos Correa, for instance, and the Tigers’ ample flexibility leaves them open for opportunistic adds of that nature, should they arise.

The trade market also can’t be discounted as a means of adding some notable talent. Harris and his staff proved over the past year that they’re plenty willing to make deals with other clubs. Since the beginning of last offseason, Detroit has traded Joe Jimenez to Atlanta and Gregory Soto and Michael Lorenzen to Philadelphia (in separate swaps). The Tigers picked up Zach McKinstry in a spring trade with the Cubs earlier this year and added Canha in a deal with Milwaukee just a few weeks ago. It’s perfectly reasonable to think they might be more active in trades than in free agency; some combination of both avenues is likely at the end of the day.

However, those hoping for a bigger splash may want to look back to Harris’ comments earlier this month when asked about having sufficient resources to sign a premier free agent (link via Chris McCosky of the Detroit News): “If we feel like we are close enough to where a big free agent pushes us over the edge, sure, we have an ownership that’s going to support us to be able to do that. But, as this game has taught us time and time again, sometimes, teams over-estimate their proximity to being a team that’s right on the verge of the playoffs, and they spend a lot of money and it doesn’t push them forward. It pushes them back. We have to be really careful.”

Mets Interested In Luis Severino

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Luis Severino’s trip through free agency could lead him to another New York borough, as the former Yankees right-hander has gotten some interest from the Mets, The Athletic’s Will Sammon reports.  Mets officials are planning a meeting with the 29-year-old to explore the possibility of a deal between the two sides.

A reunion with the Yankees doesn’t appear to be happening for Severino, but at least eight teams were known to have some level of interest in the two-time All-Star.  It’s probably safe to guess that an even higher number will at least check in before the offseason is over, given the widespread need for pitching around the league and Severino’s potential as a reclamation project.

Severino’s career got off to such a promising start that the Yankees signed him to a four-year, $40MM extension prior to the 2019 season, a rare move for a team that usually doesn’t explore contract extensions on general principal.  Unfortunately for the Yankees, they perhaps should’ve stuck to their policy in this case, as Severino’s career went into a tailspin due to injuries.  He pitched only 18 total big league innings from 2019-21, primarily due to Tommy John surgery but with shoulder, lat, and groin problems also contributing to those three lost years.

More lat injuries limited Severino’s availability in 2022, but he at least returned to pitch 102 innings and post a 3.18 ERA, so the Bombers exercised their $15MM club option on the righty’s services for 2023.  This was another transaction that backfired, as Severino again battled injuries (an oblique strain and another lat strain) en route to a 6.65 ERA in 89 1/3 frames.

In all likelihood, Severino and his agents at Rep 1 Baseball will be aiming for a one-year contract this winter.  (MLBTR projected him for a one-year, $14MM pact.). This would allow Severino to re-enter the market next winter, theoretically after he has enjoyed the type of healthy and productive season that would serve as a better platform for a pricey multi-year commitment.  As noted earlier, many teams would be fits for Severino, and his willingness to take a one-year deal would open the door to offers from both big spenders and smaller-market clubs.

This means that in lieu of a bidding war based purely on money, Severino might prioritize environment and an organization with a track record of rejuvenating pitchers’ careers.  The Mets themselves don’t have that kind of reputation, but new president of baseball operations David Stearns is coming from a Brewers team that had a knack for developing and finding plenty of hidden-gem arms over the years.  Heading to Queens would also allow Severino to remain in New York, and once again play for Carlos Mendoza, as the new Mets skipper spent the previous six seasons on the Yankees’ coaching staff.

Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana are the only locks for the Amazins rotation in 2024, so it isn’t any surprise that the Mets are looking to acquire at least two more arms to a staff that also has Tylor Megill, Jose Butto, Joey Lucchesi, and (after a midseason return from hip surgery) David Peterson in the mix for starts.  Severino may not be the most stable of options given his long injury history, yet with the Mets willing to spend at high end of the market, the team has the flexibility to pursue both frontline arms and slightly lower-cost fliers like Severino.

Luis Severino Drawing Widespread Interest

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Free agent right-hander Luis Severino is drawing plenty of attention around the league, reports Brendan Kuty of The Athletic. As many as eight teams have made their interest known, though Kuty says the Yankees aren’t believed to be one of them.

Severino will be an interesting bounceback candidate in this winter’s market since he previously was one of the best pitchers in the game but his recent struggles should significantly hamper his market. Over 2017 and 2018, he made 63 starts and logged 384 2/3 innings with a 3.18 earned run average. He struck out 28.8% of batters faced and walked just 6.2% of them, while also keeping 45.8% of balls in play on the ground. FanGraphs calculated him as worth 11 wins above replacement over that two-year span, with only four pitchers ahead of him in that category: Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom and Corey Kluber.

Going into 2019, the Yankees locked him up with a four-year, $40MM contract with a $15MM option for 2023. Unfortunately, he was injured for most of the next three seasons. In 2019, he was only able to make three starts due to shoulder and lat injuries, then Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2020 and most of his 2021 season. In 2022, he again dealt with lat issues but was able to throw 102 innings over 19 starts with a 3.18 ERA, then a couple more starts in the postseason.

The Yanks felt good enough with that return to trigger the option but 2023 didn’t go well. Another lat strain kept him out of action until May and an oblique strain ended his season in September. In between, he tossed 89 1/3 innings with a 6.65 ERA. His strikeout rate dropped to 18.9%, after being at 27.7% last year, which was pretty close to his peak.

Despite that rough season, it’s understandable that teams would still be intrigued, though it appears the Yankees may not be one of them. They will likely pursue some kind of starting pitcher, based on their current rotation. Gerrit Cole is likely to grab a Cy Young next week based on his excellent campaign, but there’s little certainty beyond that. Both Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes are coming off injury-marred seasons. Michael King showed promise in his move from the bullpen to the rotation but he’s still fairly inexperienced as a starter. Clarke Schmidt could be in the back end after posting a 4.64 ERA this year. The Yanks aren’t likely to be satisfied with that group and could perhaps circle back to Severino later but he may not be the first name on the list.

This winter’s market has some less risky pitchers to bank on, but guys like Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Aaron Nola and Yoshinobu Yamamoto will likely require nine-figure guarantees. Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez and Shota Imanaga might come in just under the nine-figure line. Not every team will be willing to shop on Main Street and some will be combing the beach looking for buried treasure.

MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents predicted a contract of one year and $14MM for Severino this winter. Assuming his market is indeed in that range, plenty of teams will be willing to take the risk, particularly if they have a plan of how to get the best results out of him. Despite the injuries, Severino’s fastball averaged 96.5 mph in 2023. That’s a bit down from 2018, when he was at 97.6, but not by much. It’s also higher than the 96.3 mph he averaged in 2022, when he was still quite effective. His slider saw a bigger drop, averaging 84.6 mph in 2023 whereas it would sit 88-89 prior to his lengthy injury absences. But again, he was still getting good results in 2022 with a slider averaging 85.1 mph.

Kuty relays that Severino is back to throwing, having rehabbed from the oblique strain that ended his most recent campaign. His recent track record makes him a significant wild card, but one that will surely be played at some point in the coming months.

Luis Severino Won’t Return In 2023 Following High-Grade Oblique Strain

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6:44PM: The specifics of Severino’s injury have become clear, as manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including Brendan Kuty of The Athletic) that the right-hander had suffered a “high-grade” left oblique strain. The injury brings a difficult 2023 campaign for Severino to an end, and leaves the 29-year-old’s health as a major question mark just two months before he’s scheduled to hit free agency for the first time in his career.

9:39AM: As expected, the Yankees placed Severino on the 15-day IL, and called up right-hander Ron Marinaccio from Triple-A in the corresponding move.  The specific nature of Severino’s injury isn’t yet known, as the club announced he was sidelined with “a left upper body injury (pending further results).”

SEPTEMBER 8: Luis Severino departed this evening’s start against Milwaukee in the fifth inning. The right-hander left in obvious pain after throwing a pitch to Brice Turang.

The Yankees didn’t provide many specifics, saying only that Severino would go for additional testing on a left side injury. After the game, the pitcher said he felt like he’d been shot, calling it “deep, sharp pain” (via Brendan Kuty of the Athletic).

More will be known in the coming days, but it seems as if Severino is trending to a trip to the injured list. With three weeks left in the regular season and the Yankees all but certain to miss the playoffs, it’s fair to wonder if his 2023 campaign will be cut short.

It has been a nightmarish season for the 29-year-old hurler. Severino spent the first six weeks of the season on the injured list after suffering a Spring Training lat injury. He returned in late May and had been healthy up until tonight, but he has posted some of the worst numbers of any pitcher in the league. Including his performance this evening, he carries a 6.65 ERA through 89 1/3 innings. He’s striking out a below-average 18.9% of opposing hitters and has allowed a staggering 2.32 home runs per nine.

It’s a huge drop-off for a pitcher who worked to a 3.18 ERA with a 27.7% strikeout rate in 102 innings a year ago. Severino battled injuries (most notably a February 2020 Tommy John procedure) going back to 2019. Yet his rate statistics last season weren’t much worse than those of his 2017-18 peak when he made consecutive All-Star games and finished as high as third in Cy Young balloting.

Even if Severino were to finish this year healthy, it’d be a tough time for his first career trip to free agency. He already looked like a candidate for a one-year, bounceback deal in hopes of a better platform season going into the 2024-25 offseason. If he requires a stint on the injured list to close out the year, he’d head into the winter with an additional question mark.

Nestor Cortes’ Season In Jeopardy After Second Rotator Cuff Strain

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The Yankees announced they’ve recalled right-handers Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez. One roster spot was opened when left-hander Nick Ramirez was optioned to Triple-A yesterday. The other corresponding move is lefty Nestor Cortes landing on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to August 8, with a left rotator cuff strain.

Cortes told reporters that while surgery isn’t under consideration, he’ll be shut down from throwing entirely for around one month (relayed by Brendan Kuty of the Athletic). Given that timetable, skipper Aaron Boone acknowledged it’s unlikely the southpaw will make it back this season, though the club hasn’t officially ruled him out for the year (via Erik Boland of Newsday).

The ’23 campaign has been exceedingly frustrating for last year’s eighth-place Cy Young finisher. Cortes strained his hamstring in February, knocking him out of the World Baseball Classic and putting him behind the eight ball in his ramp-up. He was able to return by the start of the season but didn’t pitch as well as anticipated through 11 starts. During the first week of June, Cortes suffered a rotator cuff strain that wound up costing him around two months.

He returned from that rehab last weekend but managed only one four-inning outing before the injury resurfaced. Given the month-long shutdown and need to subsequently restart the rehab process, it seems a similar absence could be on the table. With less than two months to go in the regular season, there might not be enough time for him to return to the mound.

Cortes has made 12 starts overall, working to a 4.97 ERA over 63 1/3 frames. It’s a far cry from last year’s 2.44 ERA, though that always seemed likely to regress. Cortes still struck out over a quarter of opponents with a solid 7.5% walk percentage, with a spike in home runs and an uptick in the average on balls in play against him contributing to the less impressive results.

The 28-year-old is playing this season on a $3.2MM arbitration salary. He’ll receive a raise — albeit a fairly modest one — on that next winter and is eligible for arbitration twice more. Even if he can’t make it back this season, Cortes should be a key part of the projected starting staff heading into 2024.

New York’s short-term rotation outlook is far less settled. Injuries have cost Frankie Montas the season to date and shelved Cortes and Carlos Rodón on multiple occasions. Gerrit Cole has been phenomenal and Clarke Schmidt has settled in after a rocky April, but the rest of the group has struggled.

Luis Severino has been one of the worst pitchers in the league, posting an 8.06 ERA across 14 outings. Were the Yankees in a better position, they quite likely would’ve bumped him from the rotation by now. With so many injuries, Severino has tenuously held his rotation spot. Boone told reporters this afternoon he’s likely to get another start on Tuesday against Atlanta (via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). Brito and Vásquez are likely to fill out the rotation for now.

East Notes: Red Sox, Verdugo, Severino, Narvaez, Perez

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The Red Sox issued a positive update regarding the status of right-hander Garrett Whitlock today, with manager Alex Cora (as relayed by MassLive’s Christopher Smith) indicating that he’s poised to begin a minor league rehab assignment next week. Whitlock has been on the 15-day injured list due to a bone bruise in his elbow for just over a month. Meanwhile, both right-hander Tanner Houck and left-hander Chris Sale could also be nearing returns, with Houck expected to make three rehab starts before rejoining the club while Sale will be evaluated tomorrow as he nears a return to the majors.

Whitlock’s return to the Red Sox, according to Cora, could come with a change of role, as the manager indicated there was “a good chance” that Whitlock would be used in a multi-inning relief role rather than as a member of the rotation. That’s a role that has suited Whitlock quite well throughout his career, as he owns a sterling 2.24 ERA in 112 2/3 innings of work out of the bullpen, a far more impressive figure than his rather pedestrian 4.76 ERA in 19 starts as a member of the rotation.

Even with Whitlock seeming ticketed for the bullpen, the impending returns of Houck and Sale could create a logjam in Boston’s rotation. With the aforementioned trio on the shelf, the club was recently forced to move right-hander Nick Pivetta back into the rotation alongside regular starters James Paxton, Brayan Bello, and Kutter Crawford despite the fact that Pivetta sported a dominant 1.98 ERA in 41 innings coming out of the bullpen since he was removed from the rotation back in May.

With Paxton, Bello, and Sale all likely locked into rotation spots when healthy, the Red Sox will have to pick one of Pivetta, Houck, or Crawford to join Whitlock in the rotation unless the club plans on moving to a six-man rotation upon the return of Sale and Houck to starting action. While Pivetta’s 5.98 ERA coming out of the rotation is the weakest figure of that trio, his 7 1/3 inning, three-run outing in his return to the starting rotation may to have given Red Sox brass renewed confidence in him as a starting option going forward.

More from around MLB’s East divisions…

  • Sticking with the Red Sox, outfielder Alex Verdugo was scratched from today’s lineup shortly before the game started. Following the game, Cora briefly discussed Verdugo’s situation with reporters, including Smith. In his comments, Cora indicated that Verdugo’s absence from the lineup was not injury-related. While neither Cora nor Verdugo commented on the specifics of the situation, Cora stressed that it was “the manager’s decision”, saying: “We need everybody available. I decided the reason that he didn’t play. But he wasn’t available today. He was ready to play but he wasn’t available. … The manager decided not to play him today. And he has his reason. I’m not going to go into details or whatever.” After a hot start to the 2023 campaign, Verdugo has slashed just .157/.245/.277 in 94 trips to the plate since the start of July.
  • Yankees manager Aaron Boone indicated to reporters, including The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner, that “everything is on the table going forward” regarding right-hander Luis Severino, including a move to the bullpen. Once a rising star in the game as a reliable, front of the rotation arm, Severino has struggled massively in 13 starts this season with a 7.74 ERA and 6.56 FIP. Severino has made fifteen appearances out of the bullpen during his career to excellent results. He’s posted a microscopic 0.31 ERA with a 30.6% strikeout rate in 29 1/3 innings of work as a reliever. If Severino were to exit the rotation, that could open up starts for a younger arm like Jhony Brito or Randy Vasquez.
  • Sticking to New York, Mets catcher Omar Narvaez indicated to Will Sammon of The Athletic that he would “probably be back next season” when discussing his upcoming $7MM player option for 2024. Narvaez opened the season as the club’s starting catcher but suffered a calf strain early in the season. While Narvaez was on the shelf, youngster Francisco Alvarez emerged as the club’s everyday player behind the plate, leaving Narvaez in a part-time role upon his return. In addition to his diminished role, Narvaez has struggled badly at the plate this season, slashing just .189/.281/.245 with a wRC+ of 54 in 24 games this year.
  • The Marlins figure to welcome young right-hander Eury Perez back to the rotation on Monday, according to Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. Perez made his last big league start on July 6 before being optioned to the minors in an effort to manage his innings and keep him fresh for the stretch run. Perez’s return figures to be a significant boost to the Marlins rotation, as he impressed with a 2.36 ERA and 3.70 FIP in eleven starts during his first stint in the majors earlier this season. The Marlins currently sport a 58-54 record and are just half a game out of the final NL Wild Card spot. That spot is currently occupied by the Reds, against whom Perez is slated to make his return on Monday.

Latest On Yankees’ Deadline Approach

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With the Yankees in last place in the AL East despite a decent 55-51 record, their path forward remains somewhat murky with less than four hours to go before the trade deadline. Joel Sherman of the New York Post indicates that the club could look to both buy and sell, searching for long-term controllable pieces in areas of need while fielding offers on the pending free agents on their roster.

Several of the club’s pending free agents, including Luis Severino and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, have had difficult seasons in 2023, but could nonetheless draw interest as low-cost, depth additions from other clubs. Lefty Wandy Peralta, who has a 2.29 ERA in 47 appearances out of New York’s bullpen this year, and center fielder Harrison Bader have both fared better in their walk years, with Bader in particular drawing interest per the New York Post’s Jon Heyman. Sherman more specifically notes that the Yankees and Phillies have discussed Bader, though there is “limited traction” on a deal between the sides.

Sherman adds that the Yankees have discussed closer Clay Holmes in trade talks, despite Holmes being controllable through the 2024 campaign. That being said, Sherman noted that the asking price for Holmes is exorbitant, rendering a deal regarding the club’s closer unlikely. The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty adds to that doubt, noting that it’s “highly unlikely” the club parts with either Holmes or fellow leverage reliever Michael King.

As far as buying goes, the club has been frequently connected to Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson in the days and weeks leading up to the deadline, and those connections haven’t stopped today. Kuty, Sherman, Chris Kirschner of The Athletic, and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand have are among those who have linked the Yankees and Carlson recently. That being said, Heyman cautions that the Cardinals are unlikely to deal Carlson unless they get a young MLB starter in return. That’s a price the Yankees could pay if they so chose, with youngsters Clarke Schmidt and Jhony Brito currently occupying spots in the club’s starting rotation.

As Feinsand notes, that Carlson’s ability to play quality defense in center field could be of particular value given Bader’s status as a pending free agent. Carlson could take over for Bader in center immediately in the event of a trade before the deadline, or play left field for the remainder of the 2023 campaign and shift over to center in the event Bader departs via free agency this offseason.

Yankees Open To Offers On Impending Free Agents

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The Yankees dropped tonight’s 5-1 contest to the Rays. They’re at 55-51 heading into the deadline, last place in the AL East despite being four games above .500. New York is only 3.5 out of a Wild Card spot and recently welcomed Aaron Judge back, but they’ve gone 21-27 since the start of June.

With around 18 hours before the deadline, general manager Brian Cashman and his front office find themselves with a difficult balancing act. Whether to add for a playoff push, entertain offers on veterans, or attempt to walk the line by doing both is in question. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported before tonight’s loss that the Yankees were telling other clubs they’re willing to entertain trade offers on their impending free agents.

Nevertheless, it doesn’t seem the Yankees are strictly bucketing themselves as “sellers.” Buster Olney of ESPN tweeted this afternoon New York was still searching the market for outfield help. Meanwhile, Derrick Goold of the St, Louis Post Dispatch reports the Yanks are among the teams that have reached out to the Cardinals on starter Jack Flaherty — though it isn’t clear how recent that interest is.

It seems Cashman and his front office could entertain multiple moves that blur the line between buying and selling. Their impending free agents are having relatively disappointing seasons, though they could find varying levels of interest in each (not including Frankie Montas and Josh Donaldson, whose injuries and high salaries make them essentially impossible to move).

Harrison Bader has continued to battle injury issues, missing time with oblique and hamstring problems. He’s gotten into 57 games, connecting on seven homers but with a modest .283 on-base percentage. While it’s his second straight below-average offensive showing, Bader is an elite center fielder and has stolen 10 bags in 12 attempts. He’s playing on a $4.7MM salary and should have a decent amount of appeal on a trade market light on position player talent.

Left-hander Wandy Peralta would be a fairly straightforward target for clubs seeking relief depth. He’s holding same-handed hitters to a putrid .091/.242/.091 batting line in 67 plate appearances. Peralta has a 2.29 ERA in 37 1/3 innings overall. His strikeout and walk numbers are both subpar but he’s picking up grounders at an elite 64.1% clip while averaging 96 MPH on his sinker. He’s making $3.35MM in his final arbitration season.

There’d be less appeal with either Luis Severino or Isiah Kiner-Falefa. The former is playing on a lofty $15MM salary and having a nightmarish season. He’s been tagged for a 7.49 ERA across 12 starts. His formerly plus strikeout rates have fallen to a meager 18% clip. Severino’s velocity remains intact, but he’s not missing bats on either his changeup or slider at typical levels and is giving up tons of hard contact.

Kiner-Falefa, playing on a $6MM arbitration salary, has moved into a multi-positional role after serving as the primary shortstop in 2022. He’s spending the bulk of his time in the outfield, where he has slightly below-average reviews from public defensive marks. Kiner-Falefa is hitting .257/.322/.374 in 240 trips to the plate, making plenty of contact without much power.

Flaherty, of course, is an impending free agent himself. If New York’s interest in the Cards’ righty was somewhat recent, it’d obviously be with this season in mind. It’s hard to imagine the Yankees completely throwing in the towel in 2023. Each of their impending free agents is having a middling (or downright poor) enough season that they could move someone in the group while still looking for immediate help in other areas.

There could also be financial considerations at play. Roster Resource projects the Yankees’ competitive balance tax number just above $294MM. That’s a bit north of the $293MM that marks the highest tier of luxury penalization. Offseason reports indicated Yankees’ ownership was reluctant to go above that mark, although there are no non-monetary penalties for doing so. Offloading the money still owed to the likes of Bader or Peralta could allow them to dip below that number.

Players like Gleyber Torres and Clay Holmes are into arbitration and would surely attract interest from other clubs, though there’s nothing to suggest the Yankees on taking offers on players who can be controlled beyond this season. Both Torres and Holmes are eligible for arbitration once more.

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