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Luis Severino

Mets Interested In Luis Severino

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Luis Severino’s trip through free agency could lead him to another New York borough, as the former Yankees right-hander has gotten some interest from the Mets, The Athletic’s Will Sammon reports.  Mets officials are planning a meeting with the 29-year-old to explore the possibility of a deal between the two sides.

A reunion with the Yankees doesn’t appear to be happening for Severino, but at least eight teams were known to have some level of interest in the two-time All-Star.  It’s probably safe to guess that an even higher number will at least check in before the offseason is over, given the widespread need for pitching around the league and Severino’s potential as a reclamation project.

Severino’s career got off to such a promising start that the Yankees signed him to a four-year, $40MM extension prior to the 2019 season, a rare move for a team that usually doesn’t explore contract extensions on general principal.  Unfortunately for the Yankees, they perhaps should’ve stuck to their policy in this case, as Severino’s career went into a tailspin due to injuries.  He pitched only 18 total big league innings from 2019-21, primarily due to Tommy John surgery but with shoulder, lat, and groin problems also contributing to those three lost years.

More lat injuries limited Severino’s availability in 2022, but he at least returned to pitch 102 innings and post a 3.18 ERA, so the Bombers exercised their $15MM club option on the righty’s services for 2023.  This was another transaction that backfired, as Severino again battled injuries (an oblique strain and another lat strain) en route to a 6.65 ERA in 89 1/3 frames.

In all likelihood, Severino and his agents at Rep 1 Baseball will be aiming for a one-year contract this winter.  (MLBTR projected him for a one-year, $14MM pact.). This would allow Severino to re-enter the market next winter, theoretically after he has enjoyed the type of healthy and productive season that would serve as a better platform for a pricey multi-year commitment.  As noted earlier, many teams would be fits for Severino, and his willingness to take a one-year deal would open the door to offers from both big spenders and smaller-market clubs.

This means that in lieu of a bidding war based purely on money, Severino might prioritize environment and an organization with a track record of rejuvenating pitchers’ careers.  The Mets themselves don’t have that kind of reputation, but new president of baseball operations David Stearns is coming from a Brewers team that had a knack for developing and finding plenty of hidden-gem arms over the years.  Heading to Queens would also allow Severino to remain in New York, and once again play for Carlos Mendoza, as the new Mets skipper spent the previous six seasons on the Yankees’ coaching staff.

Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana are the only locks for the Amazins rotation in 2024, so it isn’t any surprise that the Mets are looking to acquire at least two more arms to a staff that also has Tylor Megill, Jose Butto, Joey Lucchesi, and (after a midseason return from hip surgery) David Peterson in the mix for starts.  Severino may not be the most stable of options given his long injury history, yet with the Mets willing to spend at high end of the market, the team has the flexibility to pursue both frontline arms and slightly lower-cost fliers like Severino.

Luis Severino Drawing Widespread Interest

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Free agent right-hander Luis Severino is drawing plenty of attention around the league, reports Brendan Kuty of The Athletic. As many as eight teams have made their interest known, though Kuty says the Yankees aren’t believed to be one of them.

Severino will be an interesting bounceback candidate in this winter’s market since he previously was one of the best pitchers in the game but his recent struggles should significantly hamper his market. Over 2017 and 2018, he made 63 starts and logged 384 2/3 innings with a 3.18 earned run average. He struck out 28.8% of batters faced and walked just 6.2% of them, while also keeping 45.8% of balls in play on the ground. FanGraphs calculated him as worth 11 wins above replacement over that two-year span, with only four pitchers ahead of him in that category: Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom and Corey Kluber.

Going into 2019, the Yankees locked him up with a four-year, $40MM contract with a $15MM option for 2023. Unfortunately, he was injured for most of the next three seasons. In 2019, he was only able to make three starts due to shoulder and lat injuries, then Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2020 and most of his 2021 season. In 2022, he again dealt with lat issues but was able to throw 102 innings over 19 starts with a 3.18 ERA, then a couple more starts in the postseason.

The Yanks felt good enough with that return to trigger the option but 2023 didn’t go well. Another lat strain kept him out of action until May and an oblique strain ended his season in September. In between, he tossed 89 1/3 innings with a 6.65 ERA. His strikeout rate dropped to 18.9%, after being at 27.7% last year, which was pretty close to his peak.

Despite that rough season, it’s understandable that teams would still be intrigued, though it appears the Yankees may not be one of them. They will likely pursue some kind of starting pitcher, based on their current rotation. Gerrit Cole is likely to grab a Cy Young next week based on his excellent campaign, but there’s little certainty beyond that. Both Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes are coming off injury-marred seasons. Michael King showed promise in his move from the bullpen to the rotation but he’s still fairly inexperienced as a starter. Clarke Schmidt could be in the back end after posting a 4.64 ERA this year. The Yanks aren’t likely to be satisfied with that group and could perhaps circle back to Severino later but he may not be the first name on the list.

This winter’s market has some less risky pitchers to bank on, but guys like Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Aaron Nola and Yoshinobu Yamamoto will likely require nine-figure guarantees. Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez and Shota Imanaga might come in just under the nine-figure line. Not every team will be willing to shop on Main Street and some will be combing the beach looking for buried treasure.

MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents predicted a contract of one year and $14MM for Severino this winter. Assuming his market is indeed in that range, plenty of teams will be willing to take the risk, particularly if they have a plan of how to get the best results out of him. Despite the injuries, Severino’s fastball averaged 96.5 mph in 2023. That’s a bit down from 2018, when he was at 97.6, but not by much. It’s also higher than the 96.3 mph he averaged in 2022, when he was still quite effective. His slider saw a bigger drop, averaging 84.6 mph in 2023 whereas it would sit 88-89 prior to his lengthy injury absences. But again, he was still getting good results in 2022 with a slider averaging 85.1 mph.

Kuty relays that Severino is back to throwing, having rehabbed from the oblique strain that ended his most recent campaign. His recent track record makes him a significant wild card, but one that will surely be played at some point in the coming months.

Luis Severino Won’t Return In 2023 Following High-Grade Oblique Strain

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6:44PM: The specifics of Severino’s injury have become clear, as manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including Brendan Kuty of The Athletic) that the right-hander had suffered a “high-grade” left oblique strain. The injury brings a difficult 2023 campaign for Severino to an end, and leaves the 29-year-old’s health as a major question mark just two months before he’s scheduled to hit free agency for the first time in his career.

9:39AM: As expected, the Yankees placed Severino on the 15-day IL, and called up right-hander Ron Marinaccio from Triple-A in the corresponding move.  The specific nature of Severino’s injury isn’t yet known, as the club announced he was sidelined with “a left upper body injury (pending further results).”

SEPTEMBER 8: Luis Severino departed this evening’s start against Milwaukee in the fifth inning. The right-hander left in obvious pain after throwing a pitch to Brice Turang.

The Yankees didn’t provide many specifics, saying only that Severino would go for additional testing on a left side injury. After the game, the pitcher said he felt like he’d been shot, calling it “deep, sharp pain” (via Brendan Kuty of the Athletic).

More will be known in the coming days, but it seems as if Severino is trending to a trip to the injured list. With three weeks left in the regular season and the Yankees all but certain to miss the playoffs, it’s fair to wonder if his 2023 campaign will be cut short.

It has been a nightmarish season for the 29-year-old hurler. Severino spent the first six weeks of the season on the injured list after suffering a Spring Training lat injury. He returned in late May and had been healthy up until tonight, but he has posted some of the worst numbers of any pitcher in the league. Including his performance this evening, he carries a 6.65 ERA through 89 1/3 innings. He’s striking out a below-average 18.9% of opposing hitters and has allowed a staggering 2.32 home runs per nine.

It’s a huge drop-off for a pitcher who worked to a 3.18 ERA with a 27.7% strikeout rate in 102 innings a year ago. Severino battled injuries (most notably a February 2020 Tommy John procedure) going back to 2019. Yet his rate statistics last season weren’t much worse than those of his 2017-18 peak when he made consecutive All-Star games and finished as high as third in Cy Young balloting.

Even if Severino were to finish this year healthy, it’d be a tough time for his first career trip to free agency. He already looked like a candidate for a one-year, bounceback deal in hopes of a better platform season going into the 2024-25 offseason. If he requires a stint on the injured list to close out the year, he’d head into the winter with an additional question mark.

Nestor Cortes’ Season In Jeopardy After Second Rotator Cuff Strain

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The Yankees announced they’ve recalled right-handers Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez. One roster spot was opened when left-hander Nick Ramirez was optioned to Triple-A yesterday. The other corresponding move is lefty Nestor Cortes landing on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to August 8, with a left rotator cuff strain.

Cortes told reporters that while surgery isn’t under consideration, he’ll be shut down from throwing entirely for around one month (relayed by Brendan Kuty of the Athletic). Given that timetable, skipper Aaron Boone acknowledged it’s unlikely the southpaw will make it back this season, though the club hasn’t officially ruled him out for the year (via Erik Boland of Newsday).

The ’23 campaign has been exceedingly frustrating for last year’s eighth-place Cy Young finisher. Cortes strained his hamstring in February, knocking him out of the World Baseball Classic and putting him behind the eight ball in his ramp-up. He was able to return by the start of the season but didn’t pitch as well as anticipated through 11 starts. During the first week of June, Cortes suffered a rotator cuff strain that wound up costing him around two months.

He returned from that rehab last weekend but managed only one four-inning outing before the injury resurfaced. Given the month-long shutdown and need to subsequently restart the rehab process, it seems a similar absence could be on the table. With less than two months to go in the regular season, there might not be enough time for him to return to the mound.

Cortes has made 12 starts overall, working to a 4.97 ERA over 63 1/3 frames. It’s a far cry from last year’s 2.44 ERA, though that always seemed likely to regress. Cortes still struck out over a quarter of opponents with a solid 7.5% walk percentage, with a spike in home runs and an uptick in the average on balls in play against him contributing to the less impressive results.

The 28-year-old is playing this season on a $3.2MM arbitration salary. He’ll receive a raise — albeit a fairly modest one — on that next winter and is eligible for arbitration twice more. Even if he can’t make it back this season, Cortes should be a key part of the projected starting staff heading into 2024.

New York’s short-term rotation outlook is far less settled. Injuries have cost Frankie Montas the season to date and shelved Cortes and Carlos Rodón on multiple occasions. Gerrit Cole has been phenomenal and Clarke Schmidt has settled in after a rocky April, but the rest of the group has struggled.

Luis Severino has been one of the worst pitchers in the league, posting an 8.06 ERA across 14 outings. Were the Yankees in a better position, they quite likely would’ve bumped him from the rotation by now. With so many injuries, Severino has tenuously held his rotation spot. Boone told reporters this afternoon he’s likely to get another start on Tuesday against Atlanta (via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). Brito and Vásquez are likely to fill out the rotation for now.

East Notes: Red Sox, Verdugo, Severino, Narvaez, Perez

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The Red Sox issued a positive update regarding the status of right-hander Garrett Whitlock today, with manager Alex Cora (as relayed by MassLive’s Christopher Smith) indicating that he’s poised to begin a minor league rehab assignment next week. Whitlock has been on the 15-day injured list due to a bone bruise in his elbow for just over a month. Meanwhile, both right-hander Tanner Houck and left-hander Chris Sale could also be nearing returns, with Houck expected to make three rehab starts before rejoining the club while Sale will be evaluated tomorrow as he nears a return to the majors.

Whitlock’s return to the Red Sox, according to Cora, could come with a change of role, as the manager indicated there was “a good chance” that Whitlock would be used in a multi-inning relief role rather than as a member of the rotation. That’s a role that has suited Whitlock quite well throughout his career, as he owns a sterling 2.24 ERA in 112 2/3 innings of work out of the bullpen, a far more impressive figure than his rather pedestrian 4.76 ERA in 19 starts as a member of the rotation.

Even with Whitlock seeming ticketed for the bullpen, the impending returns of Houck and Sale could create a logjam in Boston’s rotation. With the aforementioned trio on the shelf, the club was recently forced to move right-hander Nick Pivetta back into the rotation alongside regular starters James Paxton, Brayan Bello, and Kutter Crawford despite the fact that Pivetta sported a dominant 1.98 ERA in 41 innings coming out of the bullpen since he was removed from the rotation back in May.

With Paxton, Bello, and Sale all likely locked into rotation spots when healthy, the Red Sox will have to pick one of Pivetta, Houck, or Crawford to join Whitlock in the rotation unless the club plans on moving to a six-man rotation upon the return of Sale and Houck to starting action. While Pivetta’s 5.98 ERA coming out of the rotation is the weakest figure of that trio, his 7 1/3 inning, three-run outing in his return to the starting rotation may to have given Red Sox brass renewed confidence in him as a starting option going forward.

More from around MLB’s East divisions…

  • Sticking with the Red Sox, outfielder Alex Verdugo was scratched from today’s lineup shortly before the game started. Following the game, Cora briefly discussed Verdugo’s situation with reporters, including Smith. In his comments, Cora indicated that Verdugo’s absence from the lineup was not injury-related. While neither Cora nor Verdugo commented on the specifics of the situation, Cora stressed that it was “the manager’s decision”, saying: “We need everybody available. I decided the reason that he didn’t play. But he wasn’t available today. He was ready to play but he wasn’t available. … The manager decided not to play him today. And he has his reason. I’m not going to go into details or whatever.” After a hot start to the 2023 campaign, Verdugo has slashed just .157/.245/.277 in 94 trips to the plate since the start of July.
  • Yankees manager Aaron Boone indicated to reporters, including The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner, that “everything is on the table going forward” regarding right-hander Luis Severino, including a move to the bullpen. Once a rising star in the game as a reliable, front of the rotation arm, Severino has struggled massively in 13 starts this season with a 7.74 ERA and 6.56 FIP. Severino has made fifteen appearances out of the bullpen during his career to excellent results. He’s posted a microscopic 0.31 ERA with a 30.6% strikeout rate in 29 1/3 innings of work as a reliever. If Severino were to exit the rotation, that could open up starts for a younger arm like Jhony Brito or Randy Vasquez.
  • Sticking to New York, Mets catcher Omar Narvaez indicated to Will Sammon of The Athletic that he would “probably be back next season” when discussing his upcoming $7MM player option for 2024. Narvaez opened the season as the club’s starting catcher but suffered a calf strain early in the season. While Narvaez was on the shelf, youngster Francisco Alvarez emerged as the club’s everyday player behind the plate, leaving Narvaez in a part-time role upon his return. In addition to his diminished role, Narvaez has struggled badly at the plate this season, slashing just .189/.281/.245 with a wRC+ of 54 in 24 games this year.
  • The Marlins figure to welcome young right-hander Eury Perez back to the rotation on Monday, according to Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. Perez made his last big league start on July 6 before being optioned to the minors in an effort to manage his innings and keep him fresh for the stretch run. Perez’s return figures to be a significant boost to the Marlins rotation, as he impressed with a 2.36 ERA and 3.70 FIP in eleven starts during his first stint in the majors earlier this season. The Marlins currently sport a 58-54 record and are just half a game out of the final NL Wild Card spot. That spot is currently occupied by the Reds, against whom Perez is slated to make his return on Monday.

Latest On Yankees’ Deadline Approach

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With the Yankees in last place in the AL East despite a decent 55-51 record, their path forward remains somewhat murky with less than four hours to go before the trade deadline. Joel Sherman of the New York Post indicates that the club could look to both buy and sell, searching for long-term controllable pieces in areas of need while fielding offers on the pending free agents on their roster.

Several of the club’s pending free agents, including Luis Severino and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, have had difficult seasons in 2023, but could nonetheless draw interest as low-cost, depth additions from other clubs. Lefty Wandy Peralta, who has a 2.29 ERA in 47 appearances out of New York’s bullpen this year, and center fielder Harrison Bader have both fared better in their walk years, with Bader in particular drawing interest per the New York Post’s Jon Heyman. Sherman more specifically notes that the Yankees and Phillies have discussed Bader, though there is “limited traction” on a deal between the sides.

Sherman adds that the Yankees have discussed closer Clay Holmes in trade talks, despite Holmes being controllable through the 2024 campaign. That being said, Sherman noted that the asking price for Holmes is exorbitant, rendering a deal regarding the club’s closer unlikely. The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty adds to that doubt, noting that it’s “highly unlikely” the club parts with either Holmes or fellow leverage reliever Michael King.

As far as buying goes, the club has been frequently connected to Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson in the days and weeks leading up to the deadline, and those connections haven’t stopped today. Kuty, Sherman, Chris Kirschner of The Athletic, and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand have are among those who have linked the Yankees and Carlson recently. That being said, Heyman cautions that the Cardinals are unlikely to deal Carlson unless they get a young MLB starter in return. That’s a price the Yankees could pay if they so chose, with youngsters Clarke Schmidt and Jhony Brito currently occupying spots in the club’s starting rotation.

As Feinsand notes, that Carlson’s ability to play quality defense in center field could be of particular value given Bader’s status as a pending free agent. Carlson could take over for Bader in center immediately in the event of a trade before the deadline, or play left field for the remainder of the 2023 campaign and shift over to center in the event Bader departs via free agency this offseason.

Yankees Open To Offers On Impending Free Agents

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The Yankees dropped tonight’s 5-1 contest to the Rays. They’re at 55-51 heading into the deadline, last place in the AL East despite being four games above .500. New York is only 3.5 out of a Wild Card spot and recently welcomed Aaron Judge back, but they’ve gone 21-27 since the start of June.

With around 18 hours before the deadline, general manager Brian Cashman and his front office find themselves with a difficult balancing act. Whether to add for a playoff push, entertain offers on veterans, or attempt to walk the line by doing both is in question. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported before tonight’s loss that the Yankees were telling other clubs they’re willing to entertain trade offers on their impending free agents.

Nevertheless, it doesn’t seem the Yankees are strictly bucketing themselves as “sellers.” Buster Olney of ESPN tweeted this afternoon New York was still searching the market for outfield help. Meanwhile, Derrick Goold of the St, Louis Post Dispatch reports the Yanks are among the teams that have reached out to the Cardinals on starter Jack Flaherty — though it isn’t clear how recent that interest is.

It seems Cashman and his front office could entertain multiple moves that blur the line between buying and selling. Their impending free agents are having relatively disappointing seasons, though they could find varying levels of interest in each (not including Frankie Montas and Josh Donaldson, whose injuries and high salaries make them essentially impossible to move).

Harrison Bader has continued to battle injury issues, missing time with oblique and hamstring problems. He’s gotten into 57 games, connecting on seven homers but with a modest .283 on-base percentage. While it’s his second straight below-average offensive showing, Bader is an elite center fielder and has stolen 10 bags in 12 attempts. He’s playing on a $4.7MM salary and should have a decent amount of appeal on a trade market light on position player talent.

Left-hander Wandy Peralta would be a fairly straightforward target for clubs seeking relief depth. He’s holding same-handed hitters to a putrid .091/.242/.091 batting line in 67 plate appearances. Peralta has a 2.29 ERA in 37 1/3 innings overall. His strikeout and walk numbers are both subpar but he’s picking up grounders at an elite 64.1% clip while averaging 96 MPH on his sinker. He’s making $3.35MM in his final arbitration season.

There’d be less appeal with either Luis Severino or Isiah Kiner-Falefa. The former is playing on a lofty $15MM salary and having a nightmarish season. He’s been tagged for a 7.49 ERA across 12 starts. His formerly plus strikeout rates have fallen to a meager 18% clip. Severino’s velocity remains intact, but he’s not missing bats on either his changeup or slider at typical levels and is giving up tons of hard contact.

Kiner-Falefa, playing on a $6MM arbitration salary, has moved into a multi-positional role after serving as the primary shortstop in 2022. He’s spending the bulk of his time in the outfield, where he has slightly below-average reviews from public defensive marks. Kiner-Falefa is hitting .257/.322/.374 in 240 trips to the plate, making plenty of contact without much power.

Flaherty, of course, is an impending free agent himself. If New York’s interest in the Cards’ righty was somewhat recent, it’d obviously be with this season in mind. It’s hard to imagine the Yankees completely throwing in the towel in 2023. Each of their impending free agents is having a middling (or downright poor) enough season that they could move someone in the group while still looking for immediate help in other areas.

There could also be financial considerations at play. Roster Resource projects the Yankees’ competitive balance tax number just above $294MM. That’s a bit north of the $293MM that marks the highest tier of luxury penalization. Offseason reports indicated Yankees’ ownership was reluctant to go above that mark, although there are no non-monetary penalties for doing so. Offloading the money still owed to the likes of Bader or Peralta could allow them to dip below that number.

Players like Gleyber Torres and Clay Holmes are into arbitration and would surely attract interest from other clubs, though there’s nothing to suggest the Yankees on taking offers on players who can be controlled beyond this season. Both Torres and Holmes are eligible for arbitration once more.

Yankees Notes: Judge, Deadline Approach, Florial

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The Yankees have dropped three straight games and have now tallied just two victories in their past 10 contests. Sitting in the unfamiliar setting of last place in the American League East, there are mounting questions about the team’s trade deadline approach. It would be out of character, to say the least, for the Yankees to engineer a wide-scale selloff at the deadline. And with New York still only two and a half games back from an AL Wild Card spot, that seems decidedly unlikely.

That said, the Yankees also have a porous roster, particularly with Aaron Judge on the injured list and facing a nebulous timeline for his return. General manager Brian Cashman said yesterday that it’s fair to characterize Judge’s return as “close” before taking a noncommittal stance on whether that constituted a matter of days or weeks (link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). It remains unclear when the reigning AL MVP will return to the lineup; the Yankees are hitting .223/.294/.374 as a team in his absence.

With the team reeling and currently in the AL East cellar, there have naturally been calls from the fans for the Yankees to sell at the deadline, a possibility that was discussed on the most recent episode of the MLBTR Podcast. At least to some extent, that could wind up being the case. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote this morning that the Yankees could work to dip under the top tier of the luxury tax in over the next couple weeks. Presumably, that’d come by dealing away short-term players — those who’ll reach free agency at season’s end or perhaps those controlled only through the 2024 season.

At least with regard to their crop of impending free agents, however, that could be easier said than done. Luis Severino has struggled to a 6.66 ERA in 48 2/3 innings thus far, and the underlying metrics don’t give much cause for optimism. His 17.4% strikeout rate is a career-low, and his 9.4% walk rate is the second-highest of his career. He’s averaged 2.22 homers per nine innings pitched, yielding hard contact at the highest rate of his career, and is sitting on career-low swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates.

Utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa, meanwhile, is hitting just .251/.309/.369. That’s 11% worse than average, by measure of wRC+. Acquired to be a stopgap at shortstop, Kiner-Falefa has just eight innings at that position in 2023 and has been used primarily as an outfielder this season. Defensive metrics haven’t provided a strong review of his glovework there, however.

Center fielder Harrison Bader is also a free agent at season’s end and is playing his customary brand of standout defense. However, his .275 on-base percentage also ranks 295th of the 326 players with at least 150 plate appearances this season. His overall .246/.275/.427 batting line checks in below average.

Frankie Montas, of course, hasn’t thrown a pitch this season. Trading any of Severino ($15MM in 2023), Montas ($7.5MM), Kiner-Falefa ($6MM) or Bader ($4.7MM) could be enough to dip the Yankees under the top tier of luxury penalization, as Roster Resource currently has them at $294.1MM — just $1.1MM over the limit.

The most palatable rental option for the Yankees to trade would be southpaw Wandy Peralta, who’s earning $3.35MM this season. He’s currently sporting a 2.48 ERA, but his 19.5% strikeout rate is below average and his 13.6% walk rate is an obvious eyesore. Still, Peralta is averaging just shy of 96 mph on his heater and also possesses a huge 63.2% ground-ball rate.

Rosenthal speculates on the possibility of a Gleyber Torres trade, which could simultaneously fetch more talent in return and also trim payroll more than any of those rentals aside from Severino. He’s earning $9.95MM in 2023 and hitting a solid .264/.333/.430 with 14 homers. The Yankees also have an in-house, MLB-ready alternative in young Oswald Peraza, who struggled in the Majors earlier but is slashing a .261/.352/.495 in Triple-A.

Looking at the situation as a whole, however, the final tax barrier is an odd line to draw in the sand. It’s a purely monetary line of penalization, and the Yankees are only narrowly north of it. The Yankees already committed to having their top pick in next year’s draft pushed back by 10 places when they exceeded the third tier of penalty, which sits at $273MM.

Striving to dip under that threshold would perhaps be logical but also unrealistic; trimming more than $21MM from the remaining payroll at this juncture of the season would be immensely difficult. Trades at this stage would only spare the Yankees the remainder those players’ salaries. That’s roughly $5.3MM on Severino, $1.7MM on Bader, $2.1MM on Kiner-Falefa, $1.2MM on Peralta and $3.5MM on Torres. Even trading that entire quintet would only get the Yankees about two-thirds of the way there.

None of that even takes into consideration the possibility of the Yankees simultaneously adding pieces, either. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweeted earlier in the week that in addition to the Yankees’ desire to upgrade in the outfield, they’ve been monitoring the catching, starting pitching and bullpen markets. That wide swath of needs speaks to the predicament in which the Yankees currently find themselves, but it’s notable that as of Monday the team appeared set on — or at least open to adding some pieces. Both Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson and Rockies outfielder Randal Grichuk have been of some interest to the Yankees, per Feinsand. Carlson, controlled through 2026, would be an affordable and long-term solution in the outfield.

The Yankees potentially have another affordable and controllable option down in Triple-A, where former top prospect Estevan Florial has put together a huge season. Designated for assignment on Opening Day and unclaimed on waivers, Florial has batted .291/.388/.535 with an already career-high 21 homers in just 335 plate appearances.

That production hasn’t been enough to get him a look in the big leagues, however. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic took a look at Florial’s situation, speaking to Triple-A skipper Shelley Duncan and others about the 25-year-old’s work ethic and motivation in the wake of that DFA and subsequent outright. It’s frankly surprising that the Yankees have continued to lean on journeymen Jake Bauers, Willie Calhoun, Franchy Cordero and the aforementioned Kiner-Falefa in the outfield rather than give Florial some type of audition. Kuty suggests the team could look to trade him at the deadline, which could be a means of adding help in another area.

Broadly speaking, it’s strange to be discussing the Yankees in this context. They’re typically a motivated buyer at the trade deadline, one that has often acted aggressively and decisively in an effort to tighten their existing grip on a postseason spot. It’s a different feel in the Bronx this season, however, and various, simultaneous reports regarding payroll reduction, selling off short-term players and the possibility to add at virtually any spot on the roster only underscore the uncertainty surrounding the team.

We increasingly see modern front offices toe the line between “buyer” and “seller,” making moves in both directions in a given deadline season. The Yankees appear poised for such a hybrid approach to the ’23 deadline, though their play in the next couple weeks will surely prove instructive as well. If they’re able to right the ship and go on a winning streak of any note, Cashman & Co. could be emboldened to make moves that fall closer to the win-now side of the scale. Should the pendulum swing in the other direction, there’d be more urgency to take a step back and employ a longer-term focus.

The Yankees have one more game in Anaheim, where they’ve already lost two, before returning home to host struggling Royals and Mets teams for a combined five games. They’ll then head to Baltimore for three games and have one game against the division-leading Rays before the deadline rolls around. Their performance against a pair of sub-.500 teams on that homestand and in the subsequent four games against the top two teams in their own division will be worth watching with a careful eye; every win or loss is crucial at this point.

Yankees Activate Luis Severino

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The Yankees have activated right-hander Luis Severino from the 15-day IL, the team announced. The move corresponds with last night’s announcement that right-hander Jhony Brito had been optioned to Triple-A. Severino is set to start against the Reds this morning.

The 29-year-old Severino has immense talent, as shown by a 3.18 ERA, a 3.01 FIP, and 11 fWAR accumulated between 2018 and 2019. Unfortunately, Severino has struggled with his health since the end of the 2019 season, having thrown just 120 innings since then. 102 of those innings came last season, his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. While Severino was effective in his return from surgery, with a 3.18 ERA and 3.70 FIP, he continued to battle injuries last season as a lat strain caused him to miss two months of the 2022 campaign. While Severino appeared to be healthy headed into the spring, the right-hander suffered another lat strain just before Opening Day, leaving him to make his 2023 regular season debut nearly two months into the season.

Severino’s return is a breath of fresh air for a Yankees rotation that has struggled to find production outside of ace Gerrit Cole. Both Carlos Rodon and Frankie Montas have yet to throw a pitch for the Yankees this year, while Nestor Cortes has joined youngsters Clarke Schmidt and Brito in struggling to ERAs over 5.00 so far this season. Right-hander Domingo German has been solid, with a 3.75 ERA over nine starts, but was recently suspended for violating the league’s foreign substance policy.

Additionally, Severino’s contract expires at the end of this season, making his 2023 performance the platform on which he’ll build his case to potential suitors in free agency after the season ends. The 2023 free agent class, headlined by two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, figures to be fairly deep in terms of pitching, with the likes of Sonny Gray, Julio Urias, Lucas Giolito, and Aaron Nola among those expected to hit the market following the current campaign.

With Severino back in action, Brito will head to Triple-A with a 5.58 ERA and 5.56 FIP in 40 1/3 innings of work so far in 2023. Brito mostly struggled in his time with the major league club, striking out just 16.9% of batters while walking 10.1%. The walk rate is of particular concern, given Brito’s ability to avoid the free pass in the minor leagues, with a 7.7% rate in 112 2/3 innings split between Double-A and Triple-A last year standing as his highest mark in a season coming into 2023. Even in spite of his struggles, Brito figures to continue to provide depth to the Yankees rotation when necessary throughout the season.

Yankees Plan To Activate Luis Severino On Sunday

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The Yankees are planning to activate right-hander Luis Severino from the injured list on Sunday, manager Aaron Boone said last night (Twitter link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). He’ll make his season debut against the Reds after spending the first quarter of the year on the shelf with a lat strain. The news on injured reliever Ian Hamilton is a bit more ominous, as Boone revealed that the right-hander is back in New York to undergo an MRI after being placed on the 15-day IL due to a groin strain.

Severino, 29, will provide a sizable boost to a Yankees rotation that has also been without Carlos Rodon all season and recently lost Domingo German to a 10-game suspension after he was ejected from his most recent start on the heels of a foreign substance check from the umpiring crew. The Yankees have turned to former top prospect Clarke Schmidt and right-hander Jhony Brito in the rotation for much of the season, but neither has pitched well.

Despite the sub-par showings from Brito (5.20 ERA) and Schmidt (6.30), Yankees starters still rank 14th in the Majors with a collective 4.30 ERA. Gerrit Cole’s sensational start to the year skews that number, however. He and German are the only Yankees starters with an ERA under 5.00 at the moment, making Severino’s return of particular importance.

Severino, of course, has proven capable of pitching at an ace-caliber level when healthy. Dating back to the 2017 season, he boasts a 3.10 ERA with a 28.8% strikeout rate and 6.6% walk rate. The “when healthy” caveat carries plenty of weight with regard to Severino, however, as that impressive ERA and K-BB% profile has come in a sample of just 504 2/3 innings — including just 120 frames since the conclusion of the 2018 season. Severino pitched just 12 innings in 2019 due to shoulder and lat injuries, and he underwent Tommy John surgery in February of 2020. His 2021 comeback efforts were largely derailed by a Grade 2 groin strain and some recurring tightness in his shoulder. He pitched just six innings that year.

The 2022 season was Severino’s healthiest since he topped 190 innings in both the 2017-18 seasons, but he still managed only 19 starts and 102 innings of work due to a strain of the same right latissimus dorsi that has plagued him in 2023. The Yankees’ obvious hope is that the issue can be firmly put in the rearview mirror now, but only time will tell. Severino has made a pair of minor league rehab starts, lasting 3 1/3 innings apiece and holding opponents to three runs on eight hits and a pair of walks with six punchouts.

A healthy return will be of great importance not just from a team perspective but also through a personal lens. The Yankees exercised a $15MM option on Severino back in November, and he’s slated to become a free agent for the first time this coming offseason. The hope of pitching a full slate of 30-plus starts is already out the window, but if Severino can avoid the injured list from this point forth, he’ll still be viewed as one of the top arms in the class — obvious health risks notwithstanding.

For the time being, Severino will slot into the rotation along with Cole, Schmidt, Brito and a struggling Nestor Cortes (5.53 ERA in 42 1/3 innings). The team hasn’t gone on record to provide a firm timetable on Rodon, though Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported earlier in the week that a six-week timetable is viewed as a best-case scenario. That seems to generally align with the Yankees’ latest updates on the lefty, as Boone noted to Hoch and others that he’s recently thrown from 90 feet without incident. Rodon will still likely need multiple bullpen sessions, some live batting practice sessions and multiple minor league rehab starts before he’s a realistic option, so a return late next month indeed seems plausible if he can avoid further setbacks.

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