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Matt Boyd

Dodgers, Braves, Rays Interested In Matthew Boyd

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The Padres, Cubs, Red Sox and Astros are reportedly among teams with interest in breakout Tigers left-hander Matthew Boyd as the July 31 trade deadline creeps closer. Add the Dodgers, Braves and Rays to the clubs involved in the derby, according to Chris McCosky of the Detroit News.

The 28-year-old Boyd has evolved from average starter to potential front-end arm since the season began, and with the Tigers in a rebuild, they may decide to cash him in this month. Boyd’s 3.87 ERA over 107 innings isn’t befitting of an ace, but he has managed a more impressive 3.56 FIP/3.34 xFIP while emerging as one of the majors’ preeminent strikeout artists. With a sky-high 11.94 K/9 against a measly 1.68 BB/9, Boyd ranks top 10 among starters in those categories and top five in K/BB ratio (1.68).

Home runs have recently haunted Boyd, who has allowed at least two in three straight outings and a total of 10 in six starts since the beginning of June. But Boyd’s sudden gopher balls issues don’t look as if they’ll be enough to dampen teams’ enthusiasm in the affordable, controllable hurler. His $2.6MM salary this season and three remaining years of arbitration eligibility would make him a long-term piece for an acquiring team, though they’ll also help drive up Detroit’s asking price. The Tigers are holding out for a lofty return for Boyd, as you’d expect, with McCosky reporting they initially sought a major league-ready hitter and one or more “top” prospects at or above the Double-A level.

For the Dodgers, Boyd would add to a team that already seems to have everything. The back-to-back National League pennant winners own the majors’ best record (60-32) thanks in part to their starting staff. Potential Cy Young candidate Hyun-Jin Ryu, Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler have all been good to brilliant, while Kenta Maeda and Ross Stripling have performed well in complementary roles. The same applies to Rich Hill, though he has been on the injured list since June 20 with a left flexor tendon strain and, having gone on the 60-day IL, won’t return until at least late August. It’s also worth noting this could be the last season in Los Angeles for Hill, a soon-to-be free agent who’s pushing 40, so Boyd would fit nicely in his spot in the team’s rotation in 2020.

The Braves are the NL’s second-ranked team at 54-37, and there’s an obvious connection between their front office and Boyd. General manager Alex Anthopoulos held the same position in Toronto when the Blue Jays spent a sixth-round pick on Boyd in 2013. Boyd debuted up north in 2015, Anthopoulos’ last year as Toronto’s GM, but the championship-contending club traded him that July to the Tigers to acquire ace David Price.

Anthopoulos fell short of his World Series goal four years ago, but his current employer has a realistic chance to vie for a title this season. The Braves, though, do have needs in their rotation even after signing Dallas Keuchel to a one-year, $13MM contract in June. Keuchel and rookie sensation Mike Soroka are locked into spots. After that, while Julio Teheran has logged a 3.75 ERA in 100 2/3 innings, it’s much harder to trust his shaky peripherals. Max Fried’s secondary numbers are better than Teheran’s, but he has been inconsistent of late. Meanwhile, 2018 No. 1 starter Mike Foltynewicz got off to a miserable start before the team demoted him to the minors June 23, and hasn’t come back since. Kevin Gausman, likewise, hasn’t taken the mound for the Braves in weeks – he went to the IL on June 11 with a plantar fasciitis in his right foot – and has joined Foltynewicz in struggling mightily when he has started this year.

Tampa Bay isn’t the mortal playoff lock LA and Atlanta appear to be in the NL, but the Rays are very much in the AL hunt. The club’s 52-39, a half-game up on its league’s No. 1 wild-card spot and 6 1/2 behind the AL East-leading Yankees. Boyd, who’s easily affordable for the low-budget Rays, would join Cy Young possibility Charlie Morton, reigning Cy Young winner Blake Snell and Yonny Chirinos to give the opener-using team four traditional starters. The team’s also continuing to await the return of Tyler Glasnow, who was enjoying what looked like a breakthrough campaign before forearm troubles forced him to the shelf May 10. Glasnow still believes he’ll factor in again this season even after having suffered setbacks, but the Rays may not be able to bank on that occurring.

Padres Interested In Matt Boyd

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You can add Matt Boyd to the long list of starting pitchers on the Padres’ radar, as MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi reports that San Diego is “evaluating” the southpaw as a potential trade acquisition.  Things still seem to be in the exploratory phase, however, as Morosi says no “serious talks” have taken place between the Padres and Tigers.

San Diego has been looking for a controllable front-of-the-rotation arm for months, dating back to offseason reports that linked them to such names as Marcus Stroman, Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, and Noah Syndergaard in trade rumors.  Syndergaard is reportedly still a player of interest for the Padres, and it’s probably safe to assume that the Friars have at least checked in on virtually any top pitcher who might be on the market.

This search now includes Boyd, who has become one of the most intriguing names of this pre-trade deadline period thanks to a 3.87 ERA, 11.9 K/9, and league-best 7.1 K/BB rate over 107 innings for Detroit.  The Astros, Cubs, and Red Sox are some of the teams known to have had some level of interest in the 28-year-old left-hander, who is controlled through the 2022 season.

Understandably, the Tigers want a big haul of young talent back in any Boyd trade, though San Diego’s deep farm system certainly has the quality to meet Detroit’s demands.  Morosi also suggests that the Padres could offer Franmil Reyes or Hunter Renfroe off the Major League roster to address the Tigers’ lack of young outfield depth, perhaps even with Nick Castellanos going to San Diego as part of a larger multi-player deal if the Padres don’t want their current lineup to suffer an offensive hit.

Jeff Luhnow Discusses Astros’ Rotation

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The depth of the Astros’ rotation suffered a blow Friday with the loss of right-hander Corbin Martin, who underwent Tommy John surgery. Not only is the 23-year-old done for 2019, but Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow said Martin is likely to sit out a “significant portion” of next season (via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Martin’s absence will cost the Astros a hurler they thought would factor into their rotation in 2020, according to Luhnow.

While Luhnow added that the loss of Martin doesn’t affect the Astros’ plans leading up to the July 31 trade deadline, he admitted that “it could make getting a pitcher with an extra year of control more appealing.”

Owing in part to Martin’s injury, the Astros will head into 2020 with some uncertainty in their rotation. Ace Justin Verlander will stick around, Brad Peacock could either continue to start or return to the Astros’ bullpen, and Lance McCullers Jr. should be back from a Tommy John procedure of his own. On the other hand, though, co-ace Gerrit Cole might depart for a mega-deal in free agency, which would be an enormous shot to Houston’s rotation. Southpaw Wade Miley, who’s been an effective starter for the Astros this year, and righty Collin McHugh are also scheduled to reach the open market.

Even after seeing Martin go down, the Astros still have promising young pitchers who could earn spots on their 2020 staff, with Forrest Whitley, Josh James and J.B. Bukauskas among them. But if the AL West leaders want a more established starter to aid in their World Series push this year and take a spot next season, their solution could come via trade this month.

The Astros had already been connected to the Tigers’ Matthew Boyd in the rumor mill prior to the news on Martin. The 28-year-old Boyd’s a breakout left-hander who’s controllable through 2022, which makes him one of the coveted trade candidates available as the 31st nears. Chris McCosky of the Detroit News added more fuel to the fire Friday, tweeting Houston has “been one of the teams scouting Boyd hard.”

Like Boyd, Blue Jays right-hander Marcus Stroman stands out as an obvious trade chip who’d further a team’s cause past this season. The Astros have reportedly had interest in Stroman, who’s under control through 2020, for multiple seasons. In light of Luhnow’s comments, Stroman may be an even more realistic possibility for the Astros.

Astros Reportedly Interested In Matthew Boyd

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Tigers left-hander Matthew Boyd will be one of the most coveted players available leading up to the July 31 trade deadline, owing to his performance and affordable team control. Contenders aplenty will call the Tigers about Boyd in the next few weeks, if they haven’t already. Count AL West-leading Houston among the clubs interested in the 28-year-old, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports. To this point, though, the Astros have not shown a willingness to trade high-end outfield prospect Kyle Tucker for Boyd, according to Morosi.

Tucker would give the offensively challenged Tigers a much-needed player to build around in the field. Their interest in Tucker goes back multiple years, Morosi notes, as the Tigers tried to acquire him from the Astros when the teams made a deal around right-handed ace Justin Verlander late in the 2017 season. Almost two full years later, Tucker remains a potential star in the making for the Astros. MLB.com ranks the 22-year-old as the game’s 10th-best prospect and notes he has high-average, 25-home run upside. Tucker has already slammed 24 homers in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League this year, moving past a slow start to log a .274/.348/.606 line (123 wRC+) in 330 plate appearances with Triple-A Round Rock.

Although Tucker posted disastrous production in his 72 major league-PA debut a year ago, it’s clear the Astros aren’t going to let that define him. If the team keeps Tucker, he could follow another excellent Astros prospect, slugger Yordan Alvarez, as an in-season difference-maker in 2019 or perhaps become a regular next year.

Speaking of 2020, the Astros are set to head into then with questions in their rotation. Verlander and Brad Peacock will be back, Lance McCullers Jr. should return from 2018 Tommy John surgery, and any of the Astros’ starting prospects might step up to claim a rotation spot. Gerrit Cole will have a chance to leave for a mega-deal in free agency, however, and Wade Miley and Collin McHugh could also depart. Boyd would help cover for their losses, and he’d do so at an affordable price. He’ll make his second of four potential trips through arbitration during the upcoming winter, when he’ll earn a raise over his relatively negligible $2.6MM salary.

While Boyd could make a long-term impact for the Astros, they could also use a complement now to slot in with Verlander and Cole atop their rotation. Boyd arguably didn’t look up to the task in June when he allowed 19 earned runs and 10 homers in a five-start, 29-inning stretch. He still put up 41 strikeouts against five walks during that span, though, and boasts a more-than-respectable 3.72 ERA/3.57 FIP through 101 2/3 frames this season. Furthermore, with a stunning 11.42 K/9 against 1.77 BB/9, Boyd’s K/BB ratio ranks fifth among starters.

The Tigers are within reason to want a prospect-driven haul for Boyd, and the Astros just may be the ones who give it to them sometime this month. However, if Detroit’s dead set on getting Tucker as part of a Boyd package, it appears the club will have to look elsewhere.

Tigers Set Lofty Asking Price On Matthew Boyd

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The Tigers are reportedly willing to listen to offers on breakout lefty Matthew Boyd, but Jason Beck of MLB.com reports that the team has unsurprisingly placed a sky-high asking price on the southpaw. Beck cites the four-player package sent by the Cubs to the White Sox in the Jose Quintana blockbuster in 2017 as a point of comparison in describing Detroit’s early ask. That package was headlined by Eloy Jimenez and top pitching prospect Dylan Cease. If the Tigers are to deal Boyd, it seems they’d need multiple high-end prospects to headline any deal.

Though Boyd has been plagued by the long ball a bit in recent starts, it’s understandable that they’re aiming high. Boyd is controlled all the way through the 2022 season as a Super Two player, and is earning just $2.8MM this season. His 26.0 K-BB% ranks fifth in the Majors, trailing only Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Chris Sale. Boyd is tied for the sixth-best overall strikeout percentage in the Majors (30.8 percent) and the tenth-lowest walk rate (4.8 percent). He’s upped his slider usage substantially in recent seasons and has seen marked growth in his swinging-strike rate and his opponents’ chase rate on pitches out of the strike zone.

Strictly comparing Boyd to Quintana, the Chicago lefty was also in his age-28 season at the time of his trade, and had a much more distinguished big league track record. Prior to the 2017 season, Quintana had already logged 951 MLB innings with a 3.41 ERA, while Boyd had only a 5.07 ERA over 460 career frames prior to upping his performance this season. Quintana also brought over three years of control thanks to a prior contract extension, allowing the Cubs to keep him under contract through 2018 and then 2019-2020 on a pair of club options.

Plenty of scouts were on hand for Boyd’s 11-strikeout performance last night, per Beck, with the Cubs and Red Sox among the teams represented. Of course, it’s worth noting that teams constantly have scouts on hand to watch rival players, and Boyd isn’t the only Tiger who could be moved this summer. Nicholas Castellanos and Shane Greene are clear trade candidates for the rebuilding Tigers. Beyond that, teams were surely interested in getting a look at Detroit’s opponent, the Rangers, particularly with Mike Minor on the mound.

Then again, the surprising Rangers may not ultimately act as sellers at all, which may additionally work in the Tigers’ favor as they market Boyd. Texas looks unlikely to deal Minor or righty Lance Lynn right now, taking a pair of potential trade candidates off the market for teams interested in pursuing starting pitchers. The Indians, too, have played better in recent weeks, which may quiet some of the rumblings about the possibility of them moving Trevor Bauer. Broadly speaking, there won’t be too many appealing arms on the market — particularly not ones who are controlled or signed beyond the current season. Even Toronto’s Marcus Stroman, frequently billed as a “controllable” starter, is only under club control through 2020.

Report: Tigers Willing To Listen To Offers For Matthew Boyd, Others

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With the July 31 trade deadline on the way and the Tigers well out of contention, they’re “open to moving virtually” all of their veteran players, Jon Morosi of MLB.com writes. Morosi names left-hander Matthew Boyd, closer Shane Greene and right fielder Nicholas Castellanos among potential trade pieces for the rebuilding Tigers.

Not only is Boyd the most appealing member of the above trio, but there is little question he’s Detroit’s MVP. After back-to-back seasons of roughly average production, the 28-year-old has performed like one of the majors’ premier starters in 2019. He owns a 3.08 ERA/2.91 FIP with a stunning 11.16 K/9 against 1.59 BB/9 through 14 starts and 84 2/3 innings. Adding to Boyd’s allure, he’s inexpensive right now ($2.6MM) and controllable for a while. Boyd’s in his first of four potential arbitration years.

While it would be difficult for the Tigers to move their fledgling ace, doing so would go a long way toward boosting a mediocre farm system. In a summer trade market that could also include the likes of Madison Bumgarner, Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez, Boyd’s performance and affordable team control would make him the most desirable arm on the block. As you’d expect, though, Morosi notes it would take a Godfather offer for the Tigers to part with Boyd.

Unlike Boyd, Castellanos wouldn’t return any kind of haul. The 27-year-old is due for free agency after the season, for one, and isn’t cheap ($9.95MM). He’s also a defensively limited corner outfielder – something most executives frown on these days – and hasn’t gotten off to a compelling start at the plate this year. While Castellanos was a well above-average offensive player from 2016-18, he’s batting a so-so .263/.315/.454 (102 wRC+) with seven home runs in 273 trips to the plate this season. Even if Castellanos’ .325 weighted on-base average starts moving toward his .342 expected wOBA, it still wouldn’t do much for his trade value.

As with Castellanos, Greene’s a soon-to-be free agent who seems quite likely to leave Detroit in the coming weeks. As a $4MM hurler with plenty of late-game experience, the Tigers are sure to find a taker for the 30-year-old Greene. There’s added value with one more season of arbitration control, though Greene’s performance thus far may also cause his arb price tag to shoot up. In theory, Greene has upped his trade value as well with a tremendous 1.00 ERA, 9.67 K/9, 2.33 BB/9 and 19 saves on 20 tries in 27 innings. However, potential buyers are likely wary regression is around the corner.

Hitters have only posted a .182 batting average on balls in play against Greene, down 124 points from his career mark of .306; his 79.8 percent strand rate sits 11 percent above his lifetime figure; and there’s a sizable gap between his wOBA against (.212) and xwOBA (.280). Greene also comes with an inconsistent track record, having mustered an unspectacular 4.30 ERA/3.88 FIP in 178 innings out of the Tigers’ bullpen from 2016-18.

After Boyd, Castellanos and Greene, it’s not as easy to identify potentially on-the-block veteran Tigers. The team signed a pair of infielders, Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer, as well as two starters in Tyson Ross and Matt Moore to one-year deals last offseason. At the time, the Tigers were no doubt hoping those four would build their value leading up to the deadline. Instead, they’ve been either bad or injured (or both in some cases). Righty Michael Fulmer underwent Tommy John surgery before the season, further destroying his once-high trade value, while designated hitter Miguel Cabrera and injured righty Jordan Zimmermann remain immovable because of their declining performances and albatross contracts.

Poll: Shopping Matthew Boyd

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The Tigers may have helped develop a front-line starter in left-hander Matthew Boyd, whom they acquired from the Blue Jays in a deal for David Price in July 2015. At the time, fellow southpaw prospect Daniel Norris was seen as the best part of the Tigers’ three-player return, but it’s Boyd who has since emerged as the superior major leaguer. Now, with the noncompetitive Tigers amid a rebuild and not likely to return to contention in the near future, they may have to consider trading Boyd this summer.

Boyd debuted with the Blue Jays the same season as the trade and wound up turning in 57 1/3 innings of 7.53 ERA/6.59 FIP ball between Toronto and Detroit. He was much better over the next three seasons, including when he totaled 4.3 fWAR in 305 1/3 frames from 2017-18, yet still didn’t look like much more than an average starter. But Boyd has found another gear in 2019 – his age-28 season.

Across 83 2/3 innings this year, Boyd has already put up a career-best fWAR (2.8) that trails only Max Scherzer among starters. Thanks in part to a lethal fastball-slider combo, Boyd’s also third in the league in K/BB ratio (6.93), sixth in K/9 (11.16) and BB/9 (1.61), eighth in FIP (2.93), 15th in ERA (3.12) and swinging-strike percentage (13.4), and 25th in contact rate (73.2). Furthermore, there’s almost zero difference between Boyd’s weighted on-base average/expected wOBA against (.272 versus .271).

Based on his production to date, the 2019 version of Boyd has been an ace – and a cheap one at that. Relative to his performance, Boyd is earning a pittance ($2.6MM) in his first of four potential arbitration-eligible years. Considering Boyd is breaking through as a top-flight starter who’s under control through 2022, it wouldn’t be remotely surprising to see the Tigers go forward with him. That said, there’s a case for Detroit to cash in its best trade chip this summer, when Boyd would outrank Marcus Stroman, Madison Bumgarner and others as the most desirable starter on the block.

Even with Boyd in the fold, it doesn’t look as if the Tigers have nearly enough quality building blocks in the majors or minors to work their way back into contention over the next couple years. There’s hope in the Tigers’ starting staff in the form of Boyd, Norris and Spencer Turnbull. But the team’s premier reliever, Shane Greene, isn’t signed past this season and may find himself on another roster in the coming weeks. Switching to the offensive side, Brandon Dixon and Nicholas Castellanos have been the Tigers’ only league-average batters this season. The 27-year-old Dixon has struck out 37 times and drawn three walks in 98 plate appearances, indicating his bubble’s going to burst. We know Castellanos can hit, but he’s a free agent-to-be whose overall value is limited by his defensive shortcomings. Down on the farm, the Tigers do have prized righty Casey Mize – the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft – but Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs still don’t see a special system in place.

While the Tigers don’t boast an elite collection of farmhands, trading Boyd would change that to a certain extent. He’d command a massive return right now, though it would be an agonizing call on the Tigers’ part to let him go. However, with Boyd’s value perhaps at its zenith and Detroit seemingly not nearing a return to relevance, general manager Al Avila may have to think about putting his club’s ace on the block. What would you do in Avila’s position?

(Poll link for app users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AL Central Notes: Boyd, Indians, Mize, Sox, Cease

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Matthew Boyd elevated his stock considerably with a strong start to the season and a heavier reliance on four-seamers and sliders, and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic recently took a look at whether the Tigers might be open to trading the 28-year-old lefty. While the rebuilding Detroit club likely isn’t in a position to wholly refuse offers on virtually anyone on the roster, the Tigers do have a preference if they’re to move Boyd, Rosenthal reports. Given the glut of young pitching in the upper minors, the team’s ideal trade package for Boyd would center around a controllable young hitter with substantial upside. The Tigers needn’t feel compelled to move Boyd either this summer or even in the 2019-20 offseason, as he’s still controlled for another three seasons, but his improvements thus far appear more legitimate than many early-season, small-sample success stories. It’s easy to imagine that he’s already more appealing to other clubs than he was a month ago, and even if the Tigers ultimately hang onto him, Boyd will surely be one of the most sought-after arms in the game this summer if he maintains his early output.

Here’s more from the American League Central…

  • Right-hander Casey Mize, the No. 1 overall pick in last year’s draft, tossed a no-hitter in his Double-A debut following a midweek promotion, but the Tigers aren’t planning to accelerate his timeline to the Major Leagues based on that dominant effort, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. “[General manager Al Avila] has told me, ’Don’t even look at them,'” manager Ron Gardenhire tells McCosky of Mize and fellow top pitching prospects Matt Manning and Alex Faedo. “So, I am happy they’re doing well, but they are not in my thoughts.” Both Avila and assistant GM David Chadd were present to watch Mize’s one-walk, no-hitter live and will watch Faedo an Manning this week as well. However, McCosky notes that the pair isn’t getting live looks at those young arms with an eye toward a near-term promotion. Faedo has just 89 innings above A-ball, while Manning has just 39 1/3.
  • The Indians left themselves little margin for error this past offseason and are now paying the price, writes Zack Meisel of The Athletic (subscription required). Cleveland pinned its hopes on a dominant rotation but is already down Mike Clevinger and Corey Kluber. While the former is ahead of schedule in his recovery from a teres major strain, he can’t be activated until June 7 given his placement on the 60-day injured list, and there’s no timeline yet for the latter. As far as in-house alternatives, Adam Plutko is still working his way back from a forearm issue, leaving Jefry Rodriguez as the de facto fourth starter and a collection of question marks behind him in the fifth slot. Chih-Wei Hu and non-roster journeyman Asher Wojciechowski are perhaps the likeliest fifth options for an Indians club that currently faces a three-game deficit in the division.
  • Although Tommy John surgery is “on the table” as an option for injured White Sox left-hander Carlos Rodon, his health won’t impact top prospect Dylan Cease’s timeline to the big leagues, general manager Rick Hahn told reporters Thursday (link via LaMond Pope of the Chicago Tribune). “[N]o one is going to be promoted to Chicago simply because there’s a need in Chicago,” said Hahn, stressing that Cease or any other prospect will only be promoted when the player’s development dictates a promotion. “(Cease’s) timeline is not in any way affected by anything that happens with Carlos. It’s only going to be affected by what happens with (Cease).” The 23-year-old Cease, who entered the year as a consensus Top 50 prospect in the game, has done a good job making an early case for a big league debut. Through 24 1/3 innings at Triple-A, he’s pitched to a 3.33 ERA with a 30-to-7 K/BB ratio and a 55.1 percent ground-ball rate.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League

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The deadline for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures passed at 1pm ET yesterday, meaning over the next few hours, there will be a landslide of settlements on one-year deals to avoid an arbitration hearing. We’ll track today’s minor settlements from the American League in this post. Once all of the day’s settlements have filtered in, I’ll organize them by division to make them a bit easier to parse.

It’s worth mentioning that the vast majority of teams have adopted a “file and trial” approach to arbitration, meaning that once arbitration figures are exchanged with a player, negotiations on a one-year deal will cease. The two parties may still discuss a multi-year deal after that point, but the majority of players who exchange figures with their team today will head to an arbitration hearing.

As always, all salary projections referenced within this post are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and we’ll also be updating our 2019 Arbitration Tracker throughout the day…

Today’s Updates

  • Yankees 1B Greg Bird will make $1.2 MM next season, per Bob Nightengale on Twitter.
  • The controversial Roberto Osuna will make $6.5MM next season, per Feinsand. Teammate Jake Marisnick, who again scuffled in ’18 after a promising 2017, will make $2.2125MM.
  • Per Mark Feinsand on Twitter, A’s lefty Sean Manaea $3.15MM in what’s sure to be an injury-marred 2019.
  • Hard-throwing reliever Mychal Givens will make $2.15MM, per Eduardo A. Encina of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter), with additional incentives for making the All-Star team or placing in the Top-3 for the Rivera/Hoffman Reliever of the Year Awards, added MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).
  • The Mariners agreed on a $1.95MM deal with outfielder Domingo Santana, per MLB.com’s Greg Johns (via Twitter). Santana is the second and last of the Mariners’ arbitration-eligible players.
  • The Angels agreed to contracts with a pair of players yesterday, per Maria Torres of the LA Times (via Twitter). Reliever Hansel Robles signed for $1.4MM. Robles threw 36 1/3 innings of 2.97 ERA baseball after the Angels claimed him off waivers from the Mets in June. Luis Garcia, acquired via trade from the Phillies this winter, signed for $1.675MM.
  • The Tigers and reliever Shane Greene settled on $4MM, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • The Yankees reached an agreement with Sonny Gray for $7.5MM, per Nightengale. Gray, of course, has been involved trade rumors most of the winter, but for the time being, he stands to play a role in the Yankee pen while providing insurance for the rotation.
  • Didi Gregorius has also come to an agreement with the Yankees on a one-year, $11.75MM deal in his final season before free agency, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links).
  • New Yankee James Paxton signed for $8.575, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Paxton is under contract for the 2020 season as well.
  • The Houston Astros came to an agreement with Collin McHugh for $5.8MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). McHugh could be moving back into the rotation after a stellar season in the pen, either way this will be his final season of arb eligibility before hitting the open market.
  • Jonathan Villar comes away with $4.825MM for what will be his first full season in Baltimore, per Nightengale (via Twitter).

Earlier Updates

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Official Super Two Cutoff

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This year’s cutoff for players to achieve Super Two status, and thus be eligible for arbitration a year early, has been set at two years and 134 days of Major League service time (written as 2.134), tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick.

In order to reach Super Two status, a player must be in the top 22 percent of players with between two and three seasons of MLB service (in terms of total service time) and must have spent 86 days of the preceding season on a Major League roster or disabled list. That designation allows those players to reach arbitration eligibility a year early and go through arbitration four times as opposed to the standard three.

Not only does this increase players’ earning power in the ensuing season, but it also has a substantial impact on their earnings years down the line, as arbitration salaries are built upon the prior year’s earnings. By getting to arbitration early, players jump-start their earning potential a full year sooner than most of their peers. It’s hardly a surprise, then, that the current single-season salary record holder for an arbitration-eligible player, Josh Donaldson, reached Super Two status early in his career ($23MM). Nor is it surprising that Nolan Arenado, who is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to break that record this offseason, was also a Super Two player. Swartz projects Arenado to take home a whopping $26.1MM salary in his final winter of arbitration eligibility.

Here’s how this year’s 2.134 cutoff compares to recent years:

  • 2017: 2.123
  • 2016: 2.131
  • 2015: 2.130
  • 2014: 2.133
  • 2013: 2.122
  • 2012: 2.140
  • 2011: 2.146
  • 2010: 2.122
  • 2009: 2.139

This year’s cutoff is the highest in a half decade, leaving a handful of players ever so slightly on the outside of the bubble. Among them are the Mariners’ Edwin Diaz (2.121), the Athletics’ Andrew Triggs (2.123), the Dodgers’ Austin Barnes (2.124), the Rays’ Mallex Smith (2.125), the Nationals’ Justin Miller (2.128), the Rangers’ Matt Bush (2.132) and the Reds’ Scott Schebler (2.132).

Conversely, there are a few players who ever so narrowly squeaked into Super Two status under the wire. Chief among them is Nationals shortstop Trea Turner, who exemplifies the benefit of reaching Super Two status. Had Turner accrued even two fewer days of big league service than the 2.135 years he presently has, he’d have been in line for a six-figure salary not far north of the Major League minimum. Instead, he’s projected by Swartz to earn nearly 10 times that amount — a salary of $5.3MM. He’ll get a raise based on that starting point in 2020 and continue earning raises through the 2022 season, after which he’ll be a free agent.

Beyond Turner, Tigers left-hander Matthew Boyd just barely surpassed the cutoff at 2.136 and is projected at an even $3MM. Cubs righty Carl Edwards Jr. and Braves lefty Jacob Lindgren each landed at 2.134 on the dot, making both arbitration-eligible this winter as well. Edwards is projected to earn $1.4MM, while Lindgren projects at $600K due to the fact that he missed the 2018 season recovering from surgery and did not throw a pitch.

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