Matt Strahm

NL East Notes: Nola, Strahm, Suarez, Mets, Wright

By Simon Hampton | May 6, 2023 at 8:39am CDT

Phillies starter Aaron Nola will go into the off-season as one of the top available free agent pitchers, but Philadelphia’s expected to make a strong push to re-sign him, according to a report from the New York Post’s Jon Heyman.

It’s reported that the Phillies had at least some discussion with Nola this past winter about an extension, but their offer – which came in north of $100MM but south of the $162MM Carlos Rodon received from the Yankees – clearly didn’t get the job done. Heyman adds that Nola prefers a return to Philadelphia, and while 29 other teams could make a run at him in the winter, the Phillies will likely try again to keep him in town.

Nola’s off to a slower start than usual this year, working to a 4.64 ERA through his first seven starts, but has been one of the game’s most durable pitchers in recent seasons. He’s made more than 30 starts in every full season going back to 2018, and has compiled a very healthy 3.47 ERA in that time with above average walk and strikeout rates. As for this season, seven starts is not an insignificant sample size, and a slight drop in velocity in his fastball has seen his strikeout rate dip to just 19.2%, the lowest rate of his career.

As Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer noted about a week ago, Nola is a slow worker and the pitch clock change has been a tough adjustment for him. In any case, it’s certainly too early to write off Nola based on seven starts and it’s worth noting that the bulk of the damage was done in his first three starts, and he’s averaging almost seven innings per start with a 3.29 ERA since then.

While there’s still a full season to play out, Nola’s track record should stand him in good stead to do well in free agency. While he may not possess the dominant stuff Rodon displayed in the past two seasons, his durability is far superior and as we see so often, that is a huge value add for starting pitchers. With that in mind, it’s unsurprising Nola seemingly wasn’t interested in a deal below Rodon’s $162MM.

Here’s some more notes from around the NL East:

Sticking with the Phillies to begin with, and they’ll move Matt Strahm back to the bullpen with Ranger Suarez expected to return to the rotation shortly, per Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. Strahm’s given the Phillies some solid value out of the rotation, making six starts and working to a 3.51 ERA – including three scoreless starts. That’s been hugely helpful to a Phillies rotation that’s been slow out of the gates, with Nola and Zack Wheeler sporting ERAs above four and off-season recruit Taijuan Walker sitting at 6.91. The return of Suarez from an elbow injury will be a welcome addition, particularly if he can continue the excellent work he put in last season, where he worked to a 3.65 ERA across 29 starts. The Phillies have made a slow start to the season, sitting 15-18 entering play Saturday and seven games adrift of the Braves in first place, so the return of players like Suarez and Bryce Harper will be critical to getting them back in the race for one of baseball’s more competitive divisions.
The Mets are one more team off to a slower than expected start, after another busy off-season they sit 17-16 entering play Saturday. That’s not concerning GM Billy Eppler though, who told reporters (including Tim Britton of The Athletic) that he still believes in this roster. “I believe in this team and the players that are here. There’s too much track record, there’s too much these guys have accomplished, there’s too much know-how,” Eppler said. While a 17-16 record is certainly not the end of the world, the Mets expected better and one focus might be the top of the team’s payroll, where some of their highly-paid stars are underperforming through the first month. Starling Marte is hitting just .219/.299/.286 while Max Scherzer has a 5.56 ERA, yet Eppler says he’s not concerned by either. The Mets also just welcomed back Justin Verlander from the IL, so his return to the rotation will provide a big boost as they look to keep up with the Braves.
Kyle Wright’s MRI revealed a right shoulder strain which the Braves will re-evaluate at a later date, per Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. There is currently no timetable for his return. After a breakout season in 2022 which saw him finish tenth in NL Cy Young voting, Wright’s struggled in 2023, working to a 5.79 ERA in five starts. It seems likely the shoulder played a part in that step back, given Wright dealt with shoulder problems during spring training, and started the season on the IL. That’s a blow for Wright, who made 30 starts and pitched to a 3.19 ERA last season. The Braves, at least, are in a good position to weather the loss of Wright, with Spencer Strider, Max Fried and Charlie Morton all well established arms in Atlanta’s rotation, and Bryce Elder enjoying a strong start to the season.

Matt Strahm Is Taking Advantage Of His Starting Opportunity

By Darragh McDonald | May 1, 2023 at 8:53pm CDT

Left-hander Matt Strahm missed part of 2020 and most of 2021 due to knee injuries but bounced back with a solid season for the Red Sox in 2022. He made 50 appearances out of their bullpen, tossing 44 2/3 innings with a 3.83 ERA. His 36.8% ground ball rate was below average but he struck out a strong 26.9% of batters faced while posting an 8.8% walk rate that was very close to league average.

He reached free agency at the end of the year and was in a mix of left-handed relievers that also included such names as Taylor Rogers, Andrew Chafin, Matt Moore, Aroldis Chapman, Brad Hand and Zack Britton. Strahm was the first of that group to sign, with he and the Phillies reaching a deal in early December for two years and a $15MM guarantee. A few weeks later, Rogers signed with the Giants for three years and $33MM, naturally topping Strahm given his longer track record as an effective reliever. He came into this year with 385 relief appearances compared to Strahm’s 182.

The rest of the group would linger on the market for a while as the season approached. Like Rogers, they each generally had longer résumés than Strahm in terms of working as effective relievers. Strahm oscillated between starting and relieving in his first few seasons and then dealt with injuries a bit in 2020 and more so in 2021. That meant he really only had one full season of healthy and effective work as a reliever. But then someone like Chafin, as an example, had essentially a decade-long track record of success in the job. He finished 2022 with a career ERA of 3.23 over 476 appearances dating back to 2014. Hand was fairly similar, having been a solid bullpen option since converting to relief full-time in 2016. Chapman had a rough 2022 but had previously been one of the most dominant relievers in the sport for quite a long time. Same for Britton prior to his recent injury woes. Moore had only recently joined the bullpen but had previously been a top prospect and had some success as a starter in the past.

Chapman went on to sign with the Royals at the end of January for one year and $3.75MM plus incentives. Chafin agreed with the Diamondbacks in mid-February for one year and $6.25MM with incentives and a club option for 2024. Moore agreed with the Angels shortly after that for one year and $7.55MM. Hand stayed unsigned until early March when Spring Training was well underway, agreeing with the Rockies for one year and $2MM plus incentives. Britton remains unsigned to this day.

Although it was a bit surprising to see Strahm top everyone in that group, his 2023 perhaps illustrates why that might have been the case. Though he was producing quality work as a reliever with the Red Sox last year, he consistently spoke about wanting to regain a job as a starter in the future. Strahm had made 25 starts earlier in his career with the Padres but never quite stuck, both due to injuries and some inconsistent performances. The Phillies didn’t seem to be planning on giving him that job initially, but he has it now.

The Phils went into Spring Training with a planned rotation of Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Taijuan Walker and Ranger Suárez in the front four. The fifth spot was left open to be a competition, with the hope being that top prospect Andrew Painter could seize the job in camp even though he wouldn’t turn 20 years old until early April. If that didn’t come to fruition, the club had fallback options such as Bailey Falter and Cristopher Sánchez.

Unfortunately, Painter would be shut down in early March with a sprain of the UCL in his elbow. His shutdown period is over but he’s still ramping up arm strength and has yet to appear in an official game this year. In addition to that, Suárez dealt with some forearm inflammation in spring and still hasn’t made his season debut, just starting a rehab assignment last week. Sánchez was also shut down in the spring, with triceps soreness being the culprit in his case. That left two openings in the rotation next to Nola, Wheeler and Walker.

One of those openings was filled by Strahm and he has responded admirably so far. He made one relief appearance at the start of the year but has since made five starts. In 23 1/3 combined innings on the year, he has a 2.31 ERA. His 38.8% ground ball is still below average, but he’s striking out an incredible 36% of batters faced while walking just 7.9%. His .213 batting average on balls in play and 81.4% strand rate have surely helped him out a bit, but he still has a really strong 2.78 FIP and 2.94 SIERA that point to quality results even with some regression in terms of luck. Starters generally need to have a more diverse pitch arsenal than relievers and Strahm is showing that here this year. All four of the pitches he’s throwing have negative run values this season, with Statcast giving him a -1 on his cutter and sinker, a -3 on his four-seam and a -4 on his slider.

This is all a very small sample and we can’t draw too many long-term conclusions from it, but this illustrates why Strahm’s market wasn’t exactly the same as the other lefties mentioned earlier. Though the Phils went into the spring with the intention of having Strahm work out of the bullpen, they must have at least had some idea that moving back to the rotation was something they could try if the need arose. Those other free agent southpaws have all been exclusively relievers for years, except for Moore, who hadn’t really been effective out of the rotation since 2016.

Whether Strahm can keep this up remains to be seen. But if he can, it could potentially have interesting ramifications for the Phillies. Now that Suárez is on the road back to health, he should be looking to retake a rotation spot in the next few weeks. Falter still has an option year remaining and a 5.01 ERA through six starts this year. Perhaps he winds up back in the minors and Strahm keeps his spot even after Suárez is healthy. Sánchez recently came off the IL but was optioned to the minors.

There’s also the future to consider, as Strahm has a second year on his contract. The Phillies are currently slated to see Nola reach free agency this winter, as extension talks haven’t led to a deal. That leaves their on-paper rotation for 2024 as Wheeler, Walker and Suarez. Painter could theoretically take a spot if he can return to health and get back on track, but he’s still a wild card given his youth and lack of experience. Falter could be in the mix as well but Strahm could give the club an extra layer of rotation security if he continues proving himself this year.

There could also be significant fallout for Strahm personally, as he’s slated to return to the open market after 2024. His market will be somewhat limited as he’s already 31 years old and will be marketing his age-33 season at that time, but effective starters can still get paid at that age or older. There’s obviously aces like Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander who are getting paid extremely well into their late 30s and early 40s, but solid mid-rotation guy Chris Bassitt just got three years and $63MM going into his age-34 season.

NL Notes: Strahm, Mendick, Hamels, Panik

By Nick Deeds | March 26, 2023 at 10:40pm CDT

With Ranger Suarez unlikely to be ready for the first turn through the rotation this season, Phillies manager Rob Thomson announced to reporters, including Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer, that left-hander Matt Strahm would start the fifth game of the season for Philadelphia, joining Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Taijuan Walker and Bailey Falter in the rotation while Suarez is on the shelf.

Strahm signed with the Phillies as a reliever this offseason but has 25 career starts in the big leagues under his belt as well. That being said, his 5.08 career ERA in 108 innings of work as a starter pales in comparison to his 3.11 ERA in 196 2/3 relief innings. That said, Strahm nonetheless represents a serviceable option to fill in for Suarez in the short-term, particularly seeing as Thomson notes he will likely be limited to between 65 and 70 pitches in his first start, as he is not fully stretched out yet. That low pitch count could help him avoid facing batters for a third time, a challenge he has only faced in 75 plate appearances in his career to this point.

Ranger Suarez Still Dealing With Elbow Inflammation, Could Open Season On Injured List

By Anthony Franco | March 22, 2023 at 8:08pm CDT

Phillies starter Ranger Suárez has been slowed the past couple weeks after experiencing some forearm tightness early in the spring. The Phils haven’t broadcast any long-term concern but the issue seems to be trending towards a season-opening injured list stint.

Manager Rob Thomson told reporters today the southpaw continues to be bothered by inflammation in his throwing elbow (link via Matt Gelb of the Athletic). An MRI fortunately didn’t turn up any structural damage and Gelb reports that Suárez could begin throwing as soon as Friday. Still, it’s another minor setback that puts his availability for Opening Day in jeopardy, Thomson acknowledged.

If Suárez has to open the year on the shelf, the Phils will be down two possible members of their Opening Day rotation. Top prospect Andrew Painter was vying for a job this spring before a UCL sprain necessitated at least a month of downtime. Suárez’s issue doesn’t appear as concerning but leaves some questions behind the top three of Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler and Taijuan Walker.

Lefty Bailey Falter, who came into camp competing with Painter for the fifth starter job, now seems assured of an Opening Day rotation spot. Lefty Cristopher Sánchez, who might have been next on the depth chart, has some triceps soreness. Righty Nick Nelson was also in the rotation mix early in camp but has been bothered by a hamstring concern. That’d leave Michael Plassmeyer as the most straightforward option to step into the #5 role.

However, Gelb suggests the Phils are likelier to turn to Matt Strahm as a starter if needed early on. The southpaw worked solely in relief last year with the Red Sox, tossing 44 2/3 innings over 50 outings. Strahm had some early-career experience out of a rotation, though, and his five-pitch mix created some speculation he could sign as a starter in free agency this winter.

That didn’t transpire. The Phillies added Strahm with the intent to keep him in the bullpen and while that seems to remain the long-term plan, they’ve stretched him out as a multi-inning arm in camp. That’ll still be the case even if he’s kicked back into relief midseason. “Once Ranger gets back, whenever that is, Strahm goes back into the bullpen,” Thomson said (via Gelb). “And he’s still lengthened out. So that would be good.”

Kicking Strahm to the rotation would subtract one lock from the Opening Day bullpen. The Phillies would still have the hard-throwing duo of José Alvarado and Gregory Soto as left-handed options late in games. Moving Strahm to the starting staff could clear an Opening Day middle relief job for someone like Yunior Marté or Erich Uelmen.

Phillies Notes: Strahm, Suarez, Plassmeyer

By Steve Adams | March 17, 2023 at 11:33am CDT

The Phillies are stretching lefty Matt Strahm out to handle a multi-inning relief option, tweets Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Manager Rob Thomson said this week that the organization’s goal is for Strahm to be built up to the point that he can handle three-inning stints by the end of camp, Lauber notes. He’s slated to start one of the Phillies’ split-squad games today.

Stretching Strahm out is of particular note given the lefty’s previous work as a starter, his five-pitch repertoire, and his previously vocal stance about wanting to return to that role at some point in his career. As The Athletic’s Matt Gelb further writes, Strahm is open to any and all roles with the Phils this season.

Strahm’s career 3.11 ERA as a reliever trounces his shaky 5.08 mark as a starter, though that’s come in a sample of just 25 starts spread across four seasons. Whether he emerges as a legitimate rotation option for the Phillies at some point over the course of his current two-year, $15MM deal will likely depend greatly on the health of the team’s other options. With that in mind, it’s notable that the move to stretch Strahm out comes in conjunction with Andrew Painter’s month-long shutdown due to a UCL sprain and Ranger Suarez’s delay due to forearm tightness.

Thomson told reporters yesterday that Suarez is back on a throwing program and feeling good (Twitter link via Gelb), but he won’t be fully built up by the time the season gets underway. The Phils aren’t planning to place Suarez on the injured list to begin the season, however. As such, it seems likely his per-start workload would be capped for at least his first few turns through the rotation. Having Strahm stretched out to three or more innings would allow the Phillies to piggyback the two if they choose to go that route, and there’s obvious benefit in having Strahm stretched out in the event that the Philadelphia rotation sustains an injury of note.

For now, the likely plan in the event of another injury in the rotation would be to give 26-year-old southpaw Michael Plassmeyer a chance, Corey Seidman of NBC Sports Philadelphia writes. The 2018 fourth-rounder, acquired in the trade that sent catcher Austin Wynns to the Giants, made his MLB debut with the Phils last season (three runs in 7 1/3 innings) and posted a 2.41 ERA in 16 starts with their Triple-A affiliate following that swap. Plassmeyer has tossed seven scoreless frames this spring, though he’s issued six walks and punched out just four hitters in that time.

As it stands, the Phillies still project to have one of the NL’s stronger rotations. Each of Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Taijuan Walker and Bailey Falter have been healthy this spring, and it seems the forearm tightness that sent Suarez home from the World Baseball Classic has proven to be minor in nature.

Beyond Strahm and Plassmeyer, top prospects Mick Abel and Griff McGarry will open the season in the upper minors, but both have limited innings above A-ball to this point in their young career (23 for Abel, 40 2/3 for McGarry). Lefty Cristopher Sanchez and righty Nick Nelson are both on the 40-man roster but were both shut down earlier this week due to triceps and hamstring injuries, respectively. The Phils did receive one positive injury update yesterday, as backup catcher Garrett Stubbs told Lauber and others that he’s dealing with only a minor knee sprain and expects to be ready for Opening Day.

Latest On Market For Left-Handed Relievers

By Darragh McDonald | January 25, 2023 at 9:56am CDT

With less than three weeks to go until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, most of the top free agents have already signed with clubs for the upcoming season. One segment of the market that’s been strangely quiet, however, is left-handed relief. Andrew Chafin, Matt Moore and Zack Britton are some of the noteworthy southpaws still unattached, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Rangers, Angels, Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs and Mets are interested in their services.

Those three relievers bring varying levels of appeal to the interested clubs. Britton, 35, was arguably the best reliever in the league for an extended stretch though he entered free agency on a down note after a couple of seasons lost to injury. Moore, 34 in June, is in effectively the opposite position of Britton, as he has a lengthy track record of disappointing results but hit the open market on the upswing. Chafin, 33 in June, has been fairly consistent in recent years, apart from a small-sample blip in the shortened 2020 season.

Britton posted an incredible 1.84 ERA over a seven-year stretch from 2014 to 2020, thanks to a bowling ball sinker that bordered on unhittable. He got grounders on a ludicrous 76.2% of balls in play over that time, almost double a typical league average of about 43%. He was limited to just 18 1/3 innings in 2021 before requiring surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow. During that procedure, it was determined that he would also need Tommy John surgery, which put him out of action until late in 2022. He did make it back to the hill last year but his velocity was down and his control was all over the place. He finished the season on the injured list for shoulder fatigue. He would be a risky acquisition at this point given his uncertain health but he recently held a showcase for clubs and will surely entice one of them to take a gamble based on his previous excellence.

Moore was once one of the top prospects in the game and seemed like a rotation building block for the Rays a decade ago. However, Tommy John surgery in 2014 put him out of action for an extended stretch and he struggled once back on the mound. He bounced around to various different clubs for years, including a stint in Japan, but never really got things back on track. But a full-time move to the bullpen last year has seemingly given him a second act, as he posted a 1.95 ERA over 74 innings for the Rangers. His 12.5% walk rate was certainly concerning, but he also struck out 27.3% of batters faced and got grounders at a healthy 43.9% clip.

Chafin has posted a 3.05 ERA from 2017 to the present, even with his rough 2020 campaign. He’s been even better recently, with a 2.29 ERA over the past couple of seasons, striking out 25.7% of batters faced, walking just 7.5% of them and keeping the ball on the ground at a 47.9% clip.

All three pitchers will surely interest clubs to some degree but Rosenthal hears from one executive that the Matt Strahm signing has slowed things down. The Phillies signed him to a two-year, $15MM deal back in December, despite a somewhat shaky track record. He got some good results in his first few seasons, working mostly in relief but with the occasional start. He had an unusual season with the Padres in 2019 as he attempted to become a starter. He made 16 starts that year but posted a 5.29 ERA in that role against a 3.27 mark in 30 relief appearances. Back in the bullpen in 2020, he registered a 2.61 ERA in the shortened season but only got into six games in 2021 due to various injuries. He bounced back with the Red Sox in 2022 with a 3.83 ERA, 26.9% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate and 36.8% ground ball rate. Each of Moore and Chafin are coming off a stronger 2022 season than Strahm while Britton has a more impressive career overall. Strahm is younger than the rest of them but not by too much, having recently turned 31. Perhaps the free agents are trying to match or top the $15MM guarantee that Strahm secured and has yet to convince a team to pull the trigger on that.

Despite lingering on the market, it doesn’t seem like there’s any shortage of interest. Just about any team with designs on contending could fit another arm into their bullpen and it seems like they’re all keeping tabs here. The Rangers’ southpaw contingent took a blow recently as Brett Martin required shoulder surgery and will likely miss most of the upcoming campaign. They still have Brock Burke, Taylor Hearn and John King in the mix but it wouldn’t hurt to bolster that group. The Angels have Aaron Loup and José Quijada lined up as their primary southpaw relievers but Loup is now 35 and Quijada has control issues. The Astros are a fairly logical fit since their only lefty relievers on the 40-man are Blake Taylor and Parker Mushinski, both of whom have fairly limited track records.

The Red Sox have Joely Rodríguez as their only obvious southpaw reliever, though Chris Sale or James Paxton could move from the rotation at some point since they have each hardly pitched in the past three years. Their various injuries have severely limited their innings recently and they might struggle to handle a starter’s workload for a full season. The Jays have Tim Mayza and Matt Gage as left-handed options in their relief corps, though Yusei Kikuchi spent some time there last year after getting bumped from the rotation, a situation that could play out again this year.

The Brewers have Hoby Milner as their most straightforward lefty reliever, though Wade Miley and Aason Ashby could spend some time there if they get nudged out of a crowded rotation. The Cardinals have Genesis Cabrera slated to be the go-to guy but their other choices are optionable and have limited experience, including Packy Naughton, JoJo Romero and Zack Thompson. The Cubs make a lot of sense for adding a lefty reliever, as they currently only have Brandon Hughes on the 40, who could be in line for a closer’s role as opposed to a situational lefty job.

The Yankees recently let Lucas Luetge go, designating him for assignment and flipping him to Atlanta. That has left Wandy Peralta as the club’s only option from the left side in their bullpen. Adding even a modest contract to their books might be an issue, however, as they are reportedly concerned about crossing the final tier of the competitive balance tax. Roster Resource currently pegs their CBT figure at $292.3MM, just a hair under the final line of $293MM. Making any external addition without making up that difference will be a challenge. Trading the contract of someone like Josh Donaldson or Aaron Hicks would give them some more breathing room but the Yanks haven’t been able to find a deal so far.

The interest of the Mets might be complicated as well, as Rosenthal reports that they are hesitant to add another out-of-options pitcher to the mix and reduce their roster flexibility. All players with more than five years of service time cannot be optioned without their consent, meaning that all of these veterans are in that category. None of Edwin Díaz, Adam Ottavino, David Robertson or Brooks Raley can be optioned to the minors either.

For clubs that miss out on Chafin, Britton and Moore, some of the other lefties still available include Will Smith, Brad Hand and Justin Wilson.

Phillies Sign Matt Strahm

By Simon Hampton and Steve Adams | December 9, 2022 at 10:45am CDT

The Phillies’ whirlwind week continued Friday, as the team formally announced a two-year deal with free-agent lefty Matt Strahm. The ACES client will reportedly be guaranteed $15MM on the contract, which was the third free-agent agreement of the week for a Phillies club that also closed deals with shortstop Trea Turner (11 years, $300MM) and right-hander Taijuan Walker (four years, $72MM)

Strahm, 31, pitched the last year with the Red Sox on a one-year, $3MM deal. He tossed 44 2/3 innings of 3.83 ERA ball, striking out batters at a 26.9% clip against an 8.8% walk rate. Strahm had fairly even splits, limiting left-handed hitters to a .229/.333/.354 line while right-handers hit .221/.302/.353. It represented a solid platform year for Strahm, who pitched just 6 2/3 innings for the Padres a year prior.

Initially drafted in the 21st round of the 2012 draft by the Royals, Strahm found his way to the majors in 2016. That year he pitched effectively out of their bullpen, working to a 1.23 ERA across 22 innings while striking out a well above average 34.1% of batters. The strikeouts nosedived in 2017 to 24% and the results followed, as Strahm struggled to a 5.45 ERA in 34 2/3 innings that year before ultimately winding up on the IL for the rest of the season with a knee injury.

While injured, the Royals traded him with Esteury Ruiz and Travis Wood to the Padres at the 2017 deadline in a deal for Trevor Cahill, Ryan Buchter and Brandon Maurer. He wouldn’t pitch for them until 2018, when he threw 61 1/3 innings of 2.05 ERA ball. Strahm saw his strikeout rate tick back up while posting the best walk rate (8.6%) of his career at that point.

The Padres gave him a look as a starter in 2019, and he wound up making 16 starts for the team that year. Those didn’t go so well, as Strahm pitched to a 5.29 ERA. They returned him to the bullpen and Strahm quickly found his groove again, tossing 33 innings of 3.27 ERA relief work in the second half. He continued to provide value for the Padres out of the pen in the shortened 2020 season, working to a 2.61 ERA in 20 2/3 innings.

Injuries plagued his 2021 campaign, as Strahm first dealt with a right patellar tendon repair. He returned in August that year, but a few weeks found himself shut down for the rest of the season with knee inflammation. He went to free agency looking for opportunities to rebuild his value, and found that in the form of a one-year, $3MM deal with the Red Sox. The platform year in Boston went well enough that Strahm now finds himself with a multi-year contract with an AAV of $7.5MM.

Philadelphia’s bullpen was need of a bit of a rebuild after the departures of Corey Knebel, David Robertson and Brad Hand, and there’s every chance Strahm isn’t the only addition they make there. He’ll slot in with the likes of Seranthony Dominguez, Jose Alvarado, Andrew Bellatti and Connor Brogdon in the Phillies bullpen as things stand. It’s also at least possible that he’ll get a look as a starter, as he’s previously voiced a desire to get another rotation opportunity — and the Phillies’ fifth starter spot is at least somewhat up for grabs. Bailey Falter is the in-house favorite, though prospects Andrew Painter, Mick Abel and Griff McGarry aren’t far from MLB readiness.

The addition of Strahm brings the Phillies’ payroll up to about $230MM in terms of actual 2023 salaries, but their luxury-tax ledger (which is based on AAV and also includes player benefits and the team’s payment into the leaguewide pre-arbitration bonus pool) is just shy of $242MM, per Roster Resource. That’s about $8MM over this year’s $233MM threshold, and as a team in line to pay the tax for a second straight season, they’ll pay a 30% tax on the first $20MM by which they exceed that threshold. As it stands, they’re only in line for about $2.7MM worth of penalties, but further roster machinations will alter that outlook.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that the two sides were close to a deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported they were in agreement on a two-year, $15MM contract.

Nathan Eovaldi, Matt Strahm Drawing Strong Interest

By Darragh McDonald | November 28, 2022 at 12:02pm CDT

The markets for right-hander Nathan Eovaldi and left-hander Matt Strahm are “heating up,” according to Rob Bradford of WEEI. He speculates that one of them could sign prior to the Winter Meetings, which begin on December 4.

Bradford doesn’t specifically link any teams to the two hurlers, but it’s not surprising that they are generating lots of interest. Both of them have shown various levels of quality in the past but neither is likely to command a massive contract, meaning very few teams would be priced out of their bidding. Given that just about every team could use some extra arms, it makes sense that many of them would be kicking the tires.

Eovaldi is an established mid-rotation starter but has shown himself capable of pushing his production towards the front end. In 2021, he made 32 starts for the Red Sox, throwing 182 1/3 innings in the process. His 3.75 ERA might seem to be merely decent, but his 25.5% strikeout rate and 4.6% walk rate were both a few ticks better than average. Advanced metrics felt he deserved much better, with his 2.79 FIP almost a full run better than his ERA. FanGraphs wins above replacement, which is FIP-based, gave Eovaldi 5.7 on the season. That was the third-highest tally among all MLB pitchers that year, trailing only Corbin Burnes and Zack Wheeler.

However, he’s not coming off the ideal platform year, as back and shoulder injuries limited him to 20 starts and 109 1/3 innings in 2022. He kept his ERA down to 3.87 but his velocity was down in the second half and his strikeout rate dropped to 22.4%. This isn’t the first time injuries have been a concern, as he’s twice had Tommy John surgery and also had surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow in 2019. He’s also turning 33 in February and has been tagged with a qualifying offer, tying him to draft pick compensation. Those factors will put a damper on his market, with MLBTR predicting a two-year, $34MM contract. The free agent market has aces like Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodon, but they are all likely to command nine-figure deals. The next tier features many mid-rotation options like Chris Bassitt, Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker and others, but Eovaldi is one of the more interesting upside plays in that group.

As for Strahm, he’s proven himself to be a capable left-handed reliever, which is often more than enough to garner free agent interest on its own. But he’s also hoping to find an opportunity as a starter this offseason, which could expand his market even wider. He hasn’t made multiple starts in a season since 2019, but Michael Lorenzen hadn’t made more than three starts in a season since 2015 when he set out to free agency looking for a starting gig and signed a one-year, $6.75MM deal with the Angels a year ago.

Strahm has a somewhat similar profile and could potentially secure himself a deal in that range, though it’s not a guarantee he’ll take that path. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported today that Strahm is more likely to secure a bullpen job given the weakness of the free agent market in that department. As Rosenthal points out, the other southpaw relievers like Taylor Rogers, Will Smith and Brad Hand all had concerning performances in 2022, while Matt Moore was great but after many poor seasons prior to that. Those factors could lead to Strahm getting a nice offer to be a team’s primary bullpen lefty, which might be tempting enough that he forgoes his plan to jump into a rotation again. He posted a 3.83 ERA in 44 2/3 innings this year for the Red Sox, striking out 26.9% of batters faced while walking 8.8%.

Free Agent Notes: Judge, White Sox, Strahm

By Maury Ahram | November 20, 2022 at 8:56am CDT

There is an increasing belief that the Dodgers will make a run at AL MVP winner Aaron Judge, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman notes that the Dodgers have freed up $100MM, with Cody Bellinger, Craig Kimbrel, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, David Price, Trea Turner, and Justin Turner no longer on the roster, and that the Dodgers have an outfield gap to fill. Justin Terranova of the New York Post adds that the Dodgers were previously viewed as being on the outskirts of the Aaron Judge sweepstakes, with the Giants posing the biggest threat in his return to the Bronx. The Yankees have already sent the superstar’s camp a new offer, but Terranova notes that the Giants have “indicated that they were willing to break the bank for Judge’s services.”

There has been speculation that Judge, who grew up outside of San Francisco, might be inclined to play closer to home, with Randy Miller of NJ.com noting that the star spends “parts of his offseasons in Linden” but resides in Tampa. For his part, Judge has played coy when asked about his free agency, telling reporters after he won the AL MVP that he is “looking forward to getting the free-agent process going,” but noting that “a lot of stuff doesn’t kick in until the winter meetings in December,” per Terranova.

Elsewhere in the League:

White Sox pitching coach Ethan Katz has indicated that his team “need[s] another starter” with Johnny Cueto entering free agency, according to Tim Stebbins of NBC Sports Chicago. Katz adds that Chicago has discussed bringing back Cueto, and it was previously reported that Cueto is open to a return to the team. Inked to a minor league contract in early April, Cueto joined Chicago in late May and posted one of his strongest seasons over the past five years. The 36-year-old worked to a 3.35 ERA in 158 1/3 innings, albeit with a career-low 15.7% strikeout rate and a strong 5.1% walk rate. As noted in MLBTR’s 2022-23 Free Agent Starters article, Cueto’s age, lack of missed bats, and 91 MPH fastball likely won’t earn him a huge deal, but he will almost surely earn a guaranteed rotation spot entering the 2023 season.
On the heels of a successful season in Boston, Matt Strahm is in search of an opportunity to start on the free agent market, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. However, Speier notes the seven-year veteran has only discussed bullpen opportunities so far this offseason. Strahm last started during the 2019 season, before transitioning to a bullpen role with the Padres in July of that season. Following a slow recovery from a 2020 patellar tendon surgery on his right knee, he was DFA’d after the 2021 season and subsequently picked up by the Red Sox on a one-year, $3MM deal. Despite being limited to only 27 1/3 innings across the 2020-2021 seasons, Strahm played an integral role in Boston’s pen in 2022, pitching to a 3.83 ERA in 44 2/3 innings and earning four saves. Importantly, after two years of sub-20% strikeout rates, Strahm punched out an above-average 26.9% of opposing batters while walking a solid 8.8%.

AL Notes: Nevin, Angels, Strahm, Red Sox, Twins

By Mark Polishuk | October 1, 2022 at 9:29pm CDT

Angels interim manager Phil Nevin told reporters (including The Athletic’s Sam Blum) that he hasn’t yet had any talks with the front office about remaining in the job for the 2023 season. Nevin moved from third base coach to the interim skipper’s role after Joe Maddon was fired in June, and the Angels have a 44-57 record under Nevin’s stewardship, though between injuries and some imperfect roster construction, it can be argued that Nevin hasn’t had much to work with in trying to get the Halos on track.

The manager’s job is one of many questions facing the Angels this offseason, with the franchise’s possible sale acting as the overhanging influence on every decision. There has been some speculation that this uncertainty could benefit Nevin’s chances, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal has written that the Angels could prefer to just retain Nevin rather than sign another manager to a multi-year contract this winter (thus leaving a new owner with that deal on the books, when that owner might naturally prefer to make their own choice at skipper). The front office’s lack of contact with Nevin might not necessarily be a sign that he isn’t a candidate, as GM Perry Minasian and owner Arte Moreno might just be waiting until the offseason to conduct a proper search.

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