Merrill Kelly To Undergo Thoracic Outlet Surgery
Diamondbacks right-hander Merrill Kelly will undergo thoracic outlet syndrome surgery on Wednesday, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports.
Kelly was already done for the season as a result of a procedure on a blood clot in his shoulder, though this latest surgery could perhaps put at least some of his 2021 campaign in danger. However, the Diamondbacks are optimistic Kelly will return to spring training at full health, according to general manager Mike Hazen. In the meantime, they’ll have to decide on a $4.25MM club option or a $500K buyout for Kelly for next season. Hazen said he doesn’t expect Kelly’s TOS procedure to “have a major impact on that decision right now,” though.
Before his health problems came to the fore, Kelly looked like a valuable summer trade chip for the Diamondbacks, as Steve Adams of MLBTR wrote leading up to the Aug. 31 trade deadline. A deal obviously didn’t materialize, as Kelly hasn’t taken the mound since Aug. 19. The 31-year-old ended the season with a 2.59 ERA/3.95 FIP and 8.33 K/9 against 1.44 BB/9 over five starts and 31 1/3 innings.
Diamondbacks Make Several Roster Moves
The Diamondbacks announced that they’ve selected righties Artie Lewicki and Keury Mella and lefty Joe Mantiply from their alternate site. They also recalled infielder/outfielder Josh Rojas, placed righty Taylor Widener on the 10-day injured list with a strained right rib cage and transferred a pair of hurlers – righty Merrill Kelly and Jeremy Beasley – to the 45-day IL. After all of that, Arizona has 39 players on its 40-man roster.
Lewicki has been part of the Arizona organization since it claimed him off waivers from the Tigers after 2018, but he hasn’t pitched for the Diamondbacks yet, owing to Tommy John surgery. He last took the mound professionally in ’18 for Detroit, where he recorded a 4.89 ERA with 6.98 K/9 and 3.26 BB/9 in 38 2/3 innings.
Mella, formerly a Red and Giant, joined the D-backs on a minor league contract in the offseason. The 27-year-old logged 17 innings as a Red from 2017-19, though he carries a much bigger sample of work – 172 2/3 frames – in Triple-A ball. Mella has notched a 4.59 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 at the minors’ highest level.
Mantiply also became a Diamondback on a minors pact last winter. He has 5 3/3 innings’ experience as a Tiger and Yankee in his past, though obviously most of his action has come in the minors. Mantiply, 29, combined for 39 2/3 frames at three different minors levels as a Yankee and Red last season, when he recorded a 4.31 ERA and put up 7.5 K/9 against 1.4 BB/9.
Diamondbacks Don’t Expect Merrill Kelly To Return In 2020
Diamondbacks right-hander Merrill Kelly landed on the injured list with a nerve impingement in his pitching shoulder Monday. Now, according to general manager Mike Hazen, Kelly probably won’t return this season after undergoing surgery to address a blood clot, per reports from Zach Buchanan of The Athletic and Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.
The loss of Kelly seems like bad news on multiple fronts for the Diamondbacks. As owners of a 13-18 record, the D-backs could have sold a healthy Kelly off before the Aug. 31 trade deadline, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained shortly before he went on the IL. On the other hand, if Arizona wanted to continue pushing for a playoff spot, Kelly could have helped its cause. The 31-year-old has been one of its top starters this season, having recorded a 2.59 ERA/3.95 FIP with 8.33 K/9, 1.44 BB/9 and a 45.6 percent groundball rate in five appearances and 31 1/3 innings.
Aside from Kelly and Zac Gallen, the Diamondbacks’ rotation has gotten little production from anyone who has received multiple starts this year. Robbie Ray, Madison Bumgarner and Luke Weaver have all endured disastrous seasons, while Alex Young has provided middle-of-the-road numbers over three starts. But Bumgarner, who has been on the IL since Aug. 9 with a mid-back strain, figures to return soon. He should slot in along with Gallen, Ray, Weaver and either Young or Taylor Clarke when he does come back.
Kelly, meanwhile, will remain under Diamondbacks control in 2021 if they want to keep him. They’ll have to decide on a $4.25MM option or a $500K buyout in the offseason.
Pitching Notes: D-backs, Cubs, Verlander
Diamondbacks starter Robbie Ray is drawing interest from “a few teams” as a bullpen possibility, Bob Nightengale of USA Today writes. The 28-year-old left-hander has only made three relief appearances in his career (none since his first season in 2014); however, after several respectable seasons as a starter, the soon-to-be free agent has tanked in 2020. He owns an awful 8.33 ERA/7.77 FIP with 8.33 BB/9 across 27 innings this year, though some clubs may have hope that Ray’s high-strikeout ways will lead to success in the bullpen during the stretch run of the season. That said, there’s no guarantee the Diamondbacks will move Ray before the Aug. 31 deadline, as they entered Monday a manageable two games back of a wild-card spot.
- More on the Diamondbacks, who made righty Merrill Kelly a late scratch before his start Monday. It was easy to speculate on a potential trade when that happened, but it turns out Kelly is dealing with a nerve impingement in his pitching shoulder, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic tweets. The club has placed Kelly on the 10-day injured list as a result and recalled righty Riley Smith. Kelly has been quite effective this season, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained Monday, so losing him is a blow to the D-backs’ playoff hopes and perhaps a less-than-ideal development heading into the deadline.
- Cubs southpaw Jose Quintana and righty Tyler Chatwood will come off the injured list Tuesday, Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago reports. Quintana, who has been out all season after undergoing left thumb surgery, will work from the bullpen upon his return. That’s relatively new territory for Quintana, who has totaled just four relief appearances out of 250 in his career. As Wittenmyer notes, though, Quintana could find himself back in a starting role soon if Chatwood or Alec Mills falters (Mills didn’t in a win over Detroit on Monday). Chatwood, who will start Tuesday, turned in a pair of great outings to open the season, but he went on the IL with a back issue after the Royals shellacked him for eight earned runs on 11 hits in 2 1/3 innings on Aug. 6. He’s now set to rejoin Mills, Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks and Jon Lester in the Cubs’ rotation.
- It has been nearly a month since the Astros shut down ace Justin Verlander because of a right forearm strain, but the reigning AL Cy Young winner continues to make progress in his recovery. Manager Dusty Baker issued an update on Verlander on Monday, saying to Mark Berman of Fox 26 and other reporters: “I think he threw 20 pitches yesterday. He said he felt pretty good. That’s a positive sign.” It’s still unknown whether Verlander will make it back this year, especially with only about a month remaining in the regular season. Houston has started 15-13 despite only one appearance from Verlander (and several other notable injuries), putting the team two games back of a wild-card spot.
Arizona’s Under-The-Radar Trade Chip
Back in February, if you’d been told that the D-backs had dropped five straight games and were 8.5 games out of first place with a week until the trade deadline, the natural thought would be whether the team would trade left-hander Robbie Ray. The 28-year-old is a free agent at season’s end, and demand for starting pitching is always considerable during deadline season.
Jump ahead to August, however, and Ray has unexpectedly struggled through the worst showing of his career. He’s a contributing factor to the D-backs’ season-long struggles and their recent slide. And with nearly as many walks issued (25) as innings pitched (27), he’s not going to drum up much of a competitive market. Granted, his struggles make it extraordinarily difficult for the Diamondbacks to contemplate a qualifying offer this winter — a QO had previously looked likely — so perhaps they’ll still include some cash to help balance out his $9.43MM salary ($3.4MM prorated) and move him for what they can get.
But even without a productive Ray helping to anchor their pitching staff, the Diamondbacks find themselves in possession of one of the game’s more interesting trade assets in the rotation: right-hander Merrill Kelly.
Kelly is a relatively anonymous righty — one with whom many casual fans may not be familiar at all. The 31-year-old was an eighth-round pick of the Rays in 2010 but never earned a call to the big leagues in Tampa Bay. After several solid seasons in their system failed to earn him a promotion, Kelly jumped to the Korea Baseball Organization, where he starred for the SK Wyverns for four years. That showing prompted the D-backs to invest in a small two-year contract that included a pair of club options back in the 2018-19 offseason.
It was viewed as a fairly low-risk deal, but now, as all 30 owners bemoan revenue losses amid the Covid-19 pandemic and as virtually every psuedo-contender’s front office eyes pitching depth, Kelly should be on every team’s radar. Kelly has not only established himself as a solid big leaguer in 37 starts with the D-backs but has done so while playing on a deal that now looks well below-market.
Let’s first look to Kelly’s production. Since his Major League debut early last year, he’s taken the ball every fifth day and given the Diamondbacks 214 2/3 innings of 4.15 ERA ball. He’s been particularly sharp in five starts this year, working 31 1/3 frames with a 2.59 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, 1.44 HR/9 and a 45.6 percent ground-ball rate. Considering his hitter-friendly home park and the league-wide home run surge, Kelly’s career ERA is about six to seven percent better than the league average per both ERA+ and ERA-.
Kelly isn’t an overpowering pitcher by any means, relying on a four-seamer and a sinker that both average about 92 mph. He’s not a huge ground-ball arm, nor does he generate whiffs at a rate that is indicative of the potential for more punchouts with his current arsenal. He’s improved his walk rate, first-pitch strike rate and overall strike percentage in 2020, though, and the improved location could lend some credence to this year’s uptick in production. He’s still unlikely to sustain a sub-3.00 ERA, but fielding-independent metrics generally agree that Kelly is at the very least a league-average starter.
“League-average” admittedly isn’t an especially sexy adjective to attach to a pitcher, but average innings are useful. And Kelly isn’t being paid like an average starter — he’s being paid like a reclamation project. His $3MM salary in 2020 matches that of righty Michael Wacha, who signed with the Mets after a season ruined by shoulder injuries. Most reclamation projects have substantial incentives packages built into their contracts, allowing them to earn more if they return to form. That’s not the case with Kelly.
Kelly is not only earning a $3MM salary in 2020, however; he’s controlled through 2022 via a pair of club options that would pay him a combined $9.5MM. His contract carries a $4.25MM option ($500K buyout) for the 2021 season that is a veritable lock to be exercised, as well as a $5.25MM option (no buyout) for the 2022 campaign. For comparison’s sake, that $9.5MM salary from 2021-22 is all of $500K more than the $9MM base salary the Giants paid to right-hander Kevin Gausman — another reclamation project who is among the likelier pitchers to change hands in the coming week.
None of this is to say that Kelly’s contract is some kind of colossal misstep on his behalf. The track record of starting pitchers with zero MLB experience coming back to North America and thriving after a strong KBO showing is virtually nonexistent. There was a chance that the signing simply wouldn’t work out for the D-backs, and they’d be out the $5.5MM they’d guaranteed to Kelly. Fortunately for them, that’s not how things have turned out. And now, at a time when most front offices know they won’t be provided the same resources they can typically expect from ownership, the affordable terms of that contract could create enough surplus value to make Kelly a sought-after trade piece.
Of course, that surplus value would benefit the D-backs, too. They’re hardly buried in the NL postseason race — a reality that’s true of virtually every team except the Pirates. Looking past the top two teams in each division, there are eight teams within a game and a half of each other for those final two playoff spots. Barring a continuation of their current losing streak, there’s minimal urgency to sell any pieces; GM Mike Hazen said as recently a last week that he plans to try to add pieces in the bullpen and possibly at designated hitter.
Even if the D-backs aren’t sold on their status as contenders in 2020, they surely plan to aim for competitiveness in 2021. The club signed Madison Bumgarner and Kole Calhoun to five- and three-year deals, respectively, this winter. They traded multiple prospects to acquire the final two years of control over Starling Marte. This isn’t a club that’s going to embark on a lengthy, arduous rebuild — even with recent trades of Paul Goldschmidt and Zack Greinke still fresh in everyone’s memory.
That said, those trades and signings also helped to build a deep reservoir of pitching within the organization. Bumgarner, Zac Gallen, Luke Weaver, Corbin Martin, Alex Young, J.B. Bukauskas, Jon Duplantier and others give the club quite a bit of depth even in the event that Kelly is subtracted from the equation. A trade involving him could return a young arm (or arms) with greater team control remaining. It could also return a big league ready bat who might help to address some of the team’s lackluster production at the dish in 2020.
There’s no guarantee that the D-backs will look to move Kelly. The D-backs will likely wait until the final days or even hours leading up to the deadline to make a major move, as the wide range of outcomes this week necessitates that they gather more information. But a rental-averse team with budgetary constraints — descriptions that apply to the majority of buyers — would have plenty of reasons to make a push for Kelly and the stability he provides.
Diamondbacks Could Pull Merrill Kelly From Rotation
With a team-high 26 starts, right-hander Merrill Kelly has been a staple in the Diamondbacks’ rotation this season, but he may be on his way to their bullpen. The Brewers steamrolled Kelly over 4 1/3 innings on Friday, scoring six runs on eight hits and four walks (with five strikeouts), and Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo suggested afterward they could pull him from their rotation, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.
A former Rays farmhand, Kelly immigrated to Korea prior to 2015 and posted quality results in the KBO over the ensuing four seasons, which convinced the Diamondbacks to hand him a two-year, $5.5MM contract last December. Kelly has looked like a wise investment for most of 2019, evidenced by the 3.77 ERA he possessed as recently as July 18, but his output has declined since then. Having allowed six-plus earned runs in three of his past six starts, Kelly now owns a 4.86 ERA/4.77 FIP with 7.32 K/9, 2.58 BB/9 and a 40.7 percent groundball rate in 146 1/3 innings. Home runs have been particularly problematic for Kelly, who has surrendered 1.6 per nine and has given up two or more on four occasions since July 23.
Despite Kelly’s troubles in the past few weeks, he has still been a rare consistent presence in Arizona’s rotation thus far. The club traded ace Zack Greinke to Houston at last month’s deadline, leaving it with Kelly and the now-injured Robbie Ray as its only hurlers with 20-plus starts. The emergent Luke Weaver has been out since late May with forearm problems, meanwhile, and Taijuan Walker hasn’t pitched since early 2018 on account of Tommy John surgery and a shoulder strain.
The Diamondbacks are now down to Kelly, deadline acquisitions Mike Leake and Zac Gallen, and Alex Young in their rotation, though Ray could come off the IL this weekend. Even with Ray, that’s not the most inspiring group, which helps explain why the Snakes have faded from playoff contention as the season has progressed. They’re a game under .500 (64-65) and 5 1/2 out of a wild-card spot.
Diamondbacks Sign Merrill Kelly To Two-Year Deal
8:13pm: The D-backs formally announced the signing via a press release.
5:43pm: The Diamondbacks are in agreement on a two-year, $5.5MM contract with right-hander Merrill Kelly, reports Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter links). The contract will pay Kelly $2MM in 2019 and $3MM in 2020. It also includes a pair of club options, per Passan, the first of which is valued at $4.25MM and comes with a $500K buyout. The second of the two options comes with a $5.25MM value, he adds.
Kelly, a 30-year-old righty, has never pitched in the Majors but just wrapped up a strong four-year run in the hitter-friendly Korea Baseball Organization. The former Rays farmhand has been particularly impressive over the past two seasons, during which time he has made 61 starts and tossed 390 1/3 innings of 3.64 ERA ball with 341 strikeouts (7.9 K/9) and 105 walks (2.4 BB/9). He’s being viewed as a starter and is expected to join the Diamondbacks’ rotation next season.
The Arizona rotation has taken a hit this winter with the loss of Patrick Corbin, who reportedly agreed to a six-year contract with the Nationals earlier today. Arizona will also be without Taijuan Walker for much of the 2019 season after the righty underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this year, and the D-backs also non-tendered Shelby Miller last week. The top names remaining in the Diamondbacks’ rotation mix include Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Zack Godley and perhaps Matt Andriese, though there’s been ample trade chatter surrounding the veteran Greinke this offseason.
While Kelly lacks big league experience, the contract is a rather low-risk investment for the Diamondbacks, who will hope that Kelly can be the 2019 version of the Cardinals’ Miles Mikolas. It’s the second consecutive season in which GM Mike Hazen and his staff have given a multi-year contract to a pitcher who has no MLB experience. Last winter’s two-year pact for right-hander Yoshihisa Hirano paid off in spades — 66 1/3 innings of 2.44 ERA ball out of the bullpen — and Kelly will bring another intriguing overseas track record at a minimal price.
International Notes: McGuire, Kelly, Dominguez
A few notes on some the market for players heading overseas and (potentially) returning from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball and the Korea Baseball Organization…
- The Samsung Lions of the Korea Baseball Organization announced that they’ve signed righty Deck McGuire, per Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency. McGuire will earn a $600K salary in addition to a $100K signing bonus, and his contract can max out at a total of $950K if he reaches all of the built-in incentives. McGuire, 29, pitched 38 2/3 innings this past season between the Angels and Blue Jays but struggled to a 6.16 ERA in that brief stint. A former first-round draft pick, McGuire has a 5.23 ERA in 51 2/3 innings as a Major Leaguer, but he’s had more success in the upper minors in recent seasons. The right-hander posted a strong 2.79 ERA in 168 innings with Cincinnati’s Double-A affiliate in 2017 and a 3.22 ERA in 44 2/3 innings with Toronto’s top affiliate in Buffalo this past season.
- Yahoo’s Jeff Passan tweets that right-hander Merrill Kelly, who has spent the past three seasons pitching in Korea, could make his way back to the United States as a free agent this winter. Kelly, who turned 30 in October, has never pitched in the Majors but has thrived as a starter in the hitter-friendly KBO. Over the past two seasons with the SK Wyverns, Kelly has made 61 starts and tossed 390 1/3 innings of 3.64 ERA ball with 341 strikeouts (7.9 K/9) and 105 walks (2.4 BB/9). It’s not clear whether MLB clubs will view him as a starter or a reliever, but his strong results in Korea figure to lead to some degree of interest, regardless. Passan notes that Kelly will formally become eligible to sign on December 1.
- Former big league third baseman Matt Dominguez had his option declined by the Chiba Lotte Marines of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball and will once again be a free agent this winter. The 29-year-old didn’t fare well in a small sample of games overseas this past season and hasn’t appeared in the big leagues since 2016. Dominguez was the Astros’ primary third baseman in 2013-14, clubbing 37 home runs in that time, but he’s had limited big league opportunities since. He’s a career .264/.309/.410 hitter through 570 Triple-A games and came with a strong defensive reputation earlier in his career.
NPB/KBO Notes: Uehara, Kelly
Things are quiet in the majors as we await Game 5 of the World Series, so here’s the latest from a pair of Asian leagues…
- Reliever Koji Uehara saw his major league career end after the 2017 season, when he headed back to his native Japan to pitch for the Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball. Now, after a season in which Uehara pitched to a 3.63 ERA with 6.2 K/9 and 1.3 BB/9 over 34 2/3 innings, the Giants are considering releasing the 43-year-old, according to the Japan Times. Uehara underwent left knee surgery on Tuesday, and if he’s able to bounce back from that, the Giants could re-sign him, per the report. Otherwise, considering his age, it’s possible the eight-time NPB All-Star has thrown his last pitch as a professional – even though the report indicates he’d like to continue playing. Uehara enjoyed an excellent major league career from 2009-17 as a member of a few teams – including the Red Sox, with whom he won a World Series in 2013 – posting a 2.66 ERA with 10.71 K/9, 1.46 BB/9, 95 saves and 81 holds in 480 2/3 frames. Those numbers are actually better than the stats Uehara has compiled with Yomiuri, the only Japanese team for which he has pitched. Across 11 seasons and 1,583 2/3 frames with the Giants, Uehara has notched a 3.02 ERA with 8.0 K/9 against 1.2 BB/9.
- Merrill Kelly, a righty for SK Wyverns of the Korea Baseball Organization, has “been talked about as a possible MLB arm” for 2019, Sung Min Kim of The Athletic and River Ave Blues tweets. Kelly has been pitching in the KBO since 2015, but he did garner some minor league experience from 2010-14 as a member of the Rays, who chose him in the eighth round of the 2010 draft. At the time of Kelly’s selection, Baseball America (subscription required) wrote that he gets by “with a lot of funk and deception,” adding that he “profiles better as a reliever in pro ball.” Now 30, Kelly has parlayed his fastball-changeup-curveball repertoire into a solid career as a starter in the hitter-friendly KBO, where he has amassed at least 180 frames in three seasons and combined for a 3.86 ERA with 7.9 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9.
Minor MLB Transactions: 10/28/17
The latest minor moves from around the game:
- The Nexen Heroes of the Korea Baseball Organization have signed former major league right-hander Esmil Rogers to a one-year, $1.5MM contract, according to Yonhap. Next season will be the third in Korea for Rogers, who pitched for the Hanwha Eagles from 2015-16. The 32-year-old spent 2017 with the Nationals’ Triple-A affiliate in Syracuse and posted excellent numbers (3.18 ERA, 9.3 K/9 against 1.4 BB/9 and a 46 percent groundball rate) across 39 2/3 innings. A former Rockie, Blue Jay, Indian and Yankee, Rogers saw action in the majors from 2009-15 and pitched to a 5.59 ERA, with 7.65 K/9, 3.57 BB/9 and a 45.9 percent grounder rate, over 454 frames (210 appearances, 43 starts). In his most successful season, 2013, Rogers totaled a career-high 137 2/3 innings of 4.77 ERA ball with the Jays.
- SK Wyverns of the KBO have re-signed corner outfielder/infielder Jamie Romak and righty Merrill Kelly, per Yonhap. Contract details are unavailable for Romak, but Kelly’s pact is a one-year accord worth $1.4MM. Romak joined SK when the Padres sold his rights to the club in May, and the 32-year-old went on to slash .242/.344/.554 with 31 home runs in 416 plate appearances. A fourth-round pick of the Braves in 2003, Romak racked up a combined 39 PAs with the Dodgers and Diamondbacks from 2014-15. Kelly, meanwhile, has never played in the majors. Now 29, Kelly joined the Rays in 2010 as an eighth-rounder and lasted with the organization through the 2014 campaign, after which he hooked on with SK. During his three seasons with SK, Kelly has recorded a 3.80 ERA, 7.6 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 over 571 1/3 innings in the hitter-friendly league.