Oswald Peraza

Big Hype Prospects: Henderson, Brown, Peraza, Steer, Aranda

By Brad Johnson | September 2, 2022 at 5:05pm CDT

It’s a September call-ups edition of Big Hype Prospects. MLBTR’s Steve Adams and Anthony Franco already highlighted each club’s initial promotions. We’ll use that list to focus in on the most interesting inclusions and snubs.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Gunnar Henderson, 21, SS/3B, BAL (MLB)
8 PA, 1 HR, 1 SB, .375/.375/.750

Two games into his Major League debut, Henderson has already supplied a bevy of highlights in the field, at the plate, and on the basepaths. The legend will only grow. The Orioles second number one overall prospect to be promoted this season, Henderson’s arrival could help spur the club to a postseason berth. Of all the players promoted by contenders, he has the most impactful potential. While most playoff-bound clubs feature relatively complete rosters, Baltimore has regularly started Rougned Odor (406 PA, 0.1 fWAR). Additionally, third baseman Ramon Urias (2.0 fWAR) hasn’t hit much since late-July. Working Henderson into the infield mix should prove a net-positive in September even if he has some growing pains along the way. He’s started one game at third and shortstop.

Hunter Brown, 24, SP, HOU (MLB)
(AAA) 106 IP, 11.38 K/9, 3.82 BB/9, 2.55 ERA

Depending on the seriousness of Justin Verlander’s calf strain, Brown might draw a start or three down the stretch this season. Initially, he’ll be employed out of the bullpen with Cristian Javier rejoining the rotation in Verlander’s spot.

This season, Brown successfully built upon a decent 2021 campaign in which longstanding command issues led to muted results. Regardless of his future role, the stuff should play. The right-hander features premium fastball velocity and a pair of potent breaking balls. The curve pairs particularly well with his heater. A pitcher scouting report is never complete without a comment about a “still-developing” changeup. The success of players like Spencer Strider suggests a changeup or even a third offering of any kind shouldn’t be viewed as a requirement. If Brown ultimately stuggles as a starter, it’ll be more due to his lack of command than his repertoire.

One odd little wrinkle: Brown posted a 54.2 percent ground ball rate this season. That’s roughly in-line with past performances. What makes it odd is the way his fastball and curve tunnel together lend themselves to a fly ball profile. I’ll be watching closely to gain a better understanding of how he uses his repertoire.

Oswald Peraza, 22, SS, NYY (MLB)
(AAA) 429 PA, 19 HR, 33 SB, .259/.329/.448

As expected, the Yankees opted to grant Peraza his first taste of the Majors. Many Yankees fans were clamoring for Anthony Volpe to leapfrog Peraza straight from Double-A. Peraza profiles as a fairly classic shortstop prospect. Defensively, he’s smooth and athletic. In an era riddled with oversized shortstops who post positive defensive metrics mostly due to positioning, Peraza should comfortably stand out as a quality defender.

His hitting remains a work in progress. The fantasy-oriented among you will surely note the excellent combination of power and speed. Yet, there’s potentially a deeper issue with his triple-slash line. His plate discipline and feel for contact haven’t been as effective as many hoped. He remains quite young and could certainly continue to make gains in those areas. Early in his career, expect Major League pitchers to prey upon his willingness to expand the strike zone.

Spencer Steer, 24, 2B/3B, CIN (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 492 PA, 23 HR, 4 SB, .274/.364/.515

A gamer the Reds picked up at the trade deadline from the Twins, Steer is poised to fill an everyday utility role in Cincinnati for the next half decade or more. He profiles as an excellent fit for Great American Ballpark. While he’s hit perhaps too many grounders since joining the Reds org, he’s historically skewed towards fly ball contact. His raw power is a tad fringy for his pulled, fly ball contact profile, but GABP is often the gift that keeps on giving to fly ball hitters. No matter how his batted ball profile eventually shakes out, he has sufficient discipline and contact ability to stick in the Majors. He might not ever be an All-Star, but he looks like somebody who should carve out a tidy career.

Jonathan Aranda, 24, 1B/2B, TBR (MLB)
(AAA) 465 PA, 18 HR, 4 SB, .318/.394/.521

Aranda isn’t truly considered a top prospect due to physical attributes scouts have a hard time accepting. However, he has advanced feel for barreling the ball. He’s no better than league average from a raw power perspective, possibly even minus, but he makes up for it via a lofty, contact-driven BABIP and a healthy HR/FB ratio. He’s not a conventional prospect as he’s a tad undersized for first base and isn’t really sufficiently fleet-footed for a utility role. However, the bat should play, and the Rays are absolutely the right org for figuring out how to squeeze him into the lineup without any detrimental effects. With Brandon Lowe once again on the injured list, Aranda could bounce between second base and designated hitter. He also has minimal experience in left field.

Five More

Ken Waldichuk, OAK (24): Waldichuk made his debut on Thursday. His command woes were on full display even while Nationals hitters were clearly uncomfortable. The Washington offense is best considered a Quad-A unit. We’ll see how Waldichuk fairs against true Major League caliber opponents later this month.

Spencer Torkelson, DET (23): No longer technically a prospect because he made 298 plate appearances earlier in the season, Torkelson is nonetheless still a development piece. If one is hunting for positives, Torkelson hit particularly well at Triple-A in 58 plate appearances since mid-August. On the whole, he posted a modest 100 wRC+ in 155 Triple-A plate appearances – hardly inspiring output for a former Top 10 prospect. He rejoined the big league lineup tonight.

Josh Jung, TEX (24): Perhaps the most-notable snub, Jung has thrashed Triple-A pitching in 83 plate appearances. The Rangers are using guarded language when talking about when they’ll promote their top prospect. I’m now inclined to believe they intend to hold off on promoting him until next season. While it’s certainly plausible that they want another year of club control over Jung, he’s not exactly… young. It’s equally plausible the Rangers legitimately believe remaining in Triple-A will be better for Jung’s health and development.

Esteury Ruiz, MIL (23): Following the Josh Hader trade, many (myself included) thought Ruiz would immediately join the Brewers outfield mix. Then, when they consistently passed him over even as the Major League club floundered in the NL Central, it became clear they didn’t believe he could improve upon the work of Tyrone Taylor, Jonathan Davis, Garrett Mitchell, and others of questionable utility. It’s possible he’s mostly on hand to serve as a pinch runner and defensive replacement. Notably, Ruiz has not homered since June 15, though he continues to run with aplomb.

Triston Casas, BOS, (22): Another roster expansion snub, Casas has hit .300/.410/.515 since rejoining Triple-A on July 22. He has 11 doubles, a triple, and five home runs over the same span. While he appears to be both big league ready and an obvious upgrade over the Red Sox current mix of first basemen, the Red Sox appear to be undecided about how to handle Casas. They could be jockeying for the extra season of club control, or they might merely be delaying a decision.

Yankees Promote Oswald Peraza

By Anthony Franco | September 1, 2022 at 6:22pm CDT

The Yankees have made one of the more notable September call-ups around the league, announcing the promotion of top shortstop prospect Oswald Peraza from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. With active rosters expanding and Peraza already on the 40-man roster, no corresponding move is necessary.

It’s the first big league call for the 22-year-old, who has spent a bit more than six years climbing the minor league ladder. Originally signed by New York out of Venezuela during the 2016-17 international signing period, the 6’0″ infielder spent his first couple seasons in rookie ball. He put himself firmly on the prospect radar by 2019, showing a high-contact approach in Low-A that year. The cancelation of the following minor league season cost Peraza a year of reps, but New York still felt there was a chance another team would take him in the Rule 5 draft and carry him on the MLB roster in 2021.

The Yankees therefore added Peraza to the 40-man roster, and he’s occupied a spot there for the past couple seasons as he’s continued to progress through the system. He mashed in a 28-game stint in High-A to start 2021, earning a quick promotion to Double-A Somerset. Peraza played most of the year there, hitting .294/.348/.466 with 12 home runs and 20 stolen bases through 79 games. That impressive age-21 season earned him a late-season cameo in Triple-A and plenty of public support on Top 100 prospect lists entering this year.

Peraza placed among the game’s top farmhands in preseason rankings at Baseball America, ESPN, The Athletic and FanGraphs. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel was the most bullish, slotting him 25th leaguewide, but evaluators broadly agreed he was a plus defensive shortstop with power potential and bat-to-ball skills. Reports raised questions about his tendency to chase pitches outside the strike zone, but consensus opinion is that he has the physical tools to be an above-average regular.

The right-handed hitter hasn’t done much to change those reviews in 2022. He got off to a slow start in Triple-A but has turned things on of late, and his season line now sits at a solid .258/.329/.440. He’s hit 18 homers and swiped 33 bases on 38 attempts. Peraza’s 8% walk rate and 23.2% strikeout percentage are each pedestrian, but it’s a generally productive showing for a player of his youth and defensive profile. BA slotted him second among Yankees prospects (behind only fellow shortstop Anthony Volpe) and #76 overall on its most recent Top 100 update. McDaniel now has him 36th leaguewide, agreeing that only Volpe is the more promising minor leaguer in the New York system.

Rival teams inquired about Peraza’s availability at the trade deadline, with the Reds and Marlins reportedly looking to include him in respective discussions about Luis Castillo and Pablo López. New York held onto him, though, and he’s now in position to potentially factor into their postseason run. The Yankees are coming off an awful month of August, but they’re still a lock to make the playoffs in some capacity. With a six-game lead over the Rays in the AL East, New York remains a strong favorite for a division title and a top two seed that’d earn them a first-round bye.

What role Peraza will play remains to be seen, but it stands to reason he’ll be in manager Aaron Boone’s starting lineup more often than not. Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Josh Donaldson, acquired together in an offseason blockbuster with the Twins, have been the primary left side duo in the Bronx. Kiner-Falefa is hitting only .261/.310/.315 on the season, and he carries a .237/.290/.289 mark dating back to the All-Star Break. He’s gotten mixed reviews from public metrics for his glovework. Defensive Runs Saved has rated Kiner-Falefa 11 runs above average, the fifth-highest mark among shortstops. Statcast, on the other hand, has pegged him as a run below average.

Curtailing Kiner-Falefa’s playing time seems the easiest way to get Peraza into the lineup, but the Yankees could also work him in at the hot corner while giving Donaldson a few more days off. The former MVP has a roughly average .222/.308/.382 line across 441 plate appearances. He’s still drawing unanimous praise from public metrics for his glove, but the Yankees have also given the 36-year-old a fair number of quasi-rest days as a designated hitter.

However he’s deployed, Peraza will have a bit less than five weeks to make a case for a spot on the playoff roster. As a player who was on the 40-man by September 1, he’s automatically postseason-eligible (although even players in an organization but not on the 40-man are often easily added to playoff rosters via petition to the league office). Even if he doesn’t play a key role this postseason, Peraza will get his feet wet against big league arms as he looks to stake a claim to an Opening Day roster spot next year. He’ll have one minor league option year remaining after this season, so the Yankees can send Peraza back to Scranton next season if he doesn’t hit the ground running.

Peraza will be paid at the prorated $700K MLB minimum rate for any time he’s on the big league roster, and he’ll pick up a bit of major league service time. Far too much time has passed for him to accrue a full season of service or even threaten early arbitration eligibility as a Super Two player. He won’t be arb-eligible until after 2025 at the earliest, with his quickest path to free agency coming after 2028. If he’s optioned back to the minors next year, that could push his trajectory further into the future.

It’s also worth noting that Peraza will not reach 60 days of MLB service this season, nor is he likely to tally 130 at-bats and exhaust his rookie eligibility. He’ll technically remain a prospect headed into 2023, a potentially meaningful distinction under the new collective bargaining agreement. Players with less than 60 days of service who appear among two preseason Top 100 lists at Baseball America, ESPN or MLB Pipeline (as Peraza seems likely to do next offseason) can net their team a bonus amateur draft choice based on their early-career finishes in awards voting, so long as their club carries them on the MLB roster for a full service year. If the Yankees break camp with Peraza and he wins a Rookie of the Year or places highly in MVP balloting during his first couple seasons, New York could pick up an extra draft choice down the line.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported Peraza’s promotion before the team announcement.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Florida Notes: Marlins, Rays, Lopez, Rojas, Yankees, Franco, Baz, Cooper

By Mark Polishuk | August 25, 2022 at 2:00pm CDT

The Yankees were known to be targeting Pablo Lopez prior to the trade deadline, and reports suggested that Gleyber Torres was involved in the talks between New York and Miami. One trade proposed by the Marlins would’ve seen Lopez and Miguel Rojas head to the Bronx in exchange for Torres and infield prospect Oswald Peraza, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports, but the Yankees rejected the offer.

Anthony Volpe is considered one of the top prospects in all of baseball, so while Peraza is a top-100 staple in his own right, he could’ve been more of an expendable piece in trade talks. New York was still resistant to moving Peraza, and while the club was reportedly open to moving him in a possible Frankie Montas trade, the Yankees ended up landing Montas from the Athletics for another trade package that didn’t involve Peraza. The inclusion of longtime Miami staple Rojas is an interesting wrinkle, as presumably the Marlins offered Rojas as a replacement for Torres in the Yankees’ infield mix, and perhaps sought to give the veteran a chance at winning a ring with a contender. It makes for an interesting deadline what-if, and any of these players could potentially be part of different trade talks should the two teams rekindle negotiations this winter.

Some rumblings from the Marlins and Rays, as we check in on both Sunshine State teams…

After some fielding drills and batting practice on Wednesday, Wander Franco told reporters (including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times) that “I feel super good right now and [am] getting better,” in regards to his injured right hand. Soreness in that hand led Franco to be taken off his rehab assignment earlier this week, and the Rays will continue to monitor Franco’s injury before deciding when to restart his minor league work. Speaking with Topkin and company today, Rays manager Kevin Cash said Saturday would be the earliest date for Franco to resume his rehab assignment. Franco has played in only 58 games this season due to a quad strain and then hamate-bone surgery, and his return would be a big boost to a Rays club that is trying to secure a wild card berth.
In other Rays injury updates from Topkin, Josh Fleming and Matt Wisler each started minor league rehab assignments within the last two days, while J.P. Feyereisen will throw a live batting practice session before the team decides on his rehab assignment. This is a good development for Feyereisen, who had a brief setback due to shoulder soreness earlier this month. Shane Baz also told Topkin and other reporters that he’ll start a throwing program on Monday, but it remains to be seen if Baz can get fully ramped up in time to return to big league game action before the season is over. An elbow sprain sent Baz to the 15-day IL and then the 60-day IL retroactive to July 14, so it will still be a few weeks before he is even eligible to be activated.
Garrett Cooper is two games into a minor league rehab assignment and could be back on the Marlins’ active roster as soon as Friday. Manager Don Mattingly told reporters that Cooper was slated to play three games as part of his recovery from a stint on the seven-day concussion IL, and Cooper is no longer experiencing any symptoms. Cooper’s IL placement was retroactive to August 17, and it doesn’t look like he’ll miss much more time beyond the seven-day minimum.

Yankees Notes: Skubal, Peraza, Dietrich

By Mark Polishuk | August 7, 2022 at 9:59pm CDT

The Yankees had interest in the Tigers’ Tarik Skubal prior to the deadline, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports. Given how aggressively the Yankees were looking for pitching help, it isn’t surprising that they at least checked in on a talented and controllable arm like Skubal, who isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2026 season. Skubal ended up not being dealt anywhere, as while the Tigers were open to offers for “just about everyone” in the wake of a massively disappointing season, it would’ve naturally taken a huge trade package to obtain a pitcher that still looks like a significant part of Detroit’s present and future.

As poorly as 2022 has gone for the Tigers, they aren’t likely to abandon their plans to contend and immediately re-enter another rebuild phase, especially not with a lot of money already committed to such players as Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez. Since Skubal’s strong performance has been one of the few bright spots of Detroit’s season, moving Skubal might be just about the last thing the Tigers would do, so the Yankees’ pursuits might be limited to just monitoring the situation should plans change. Of course, New York landed a big arm at the deadline anyway in Frankie Montas.

Athletics Getting Closer To Frankie Montas Trade

By Steve Adams | August 1, 2022 at 12:20pm CDT

12:20pm: The Twins believe the A’s are wrapping up a trade sending Montas to another club, tweets Dan Hayes of The Athletic. That would suggest they’re among the teams who’ve been informed they’re no longer in the running, as suggested by Heyman.

12:15pm: The Yankees are willing to include top shortstop prospect Oswald Peraza in a Montas deal, tweets SNY’s Andy Martino.

12:01pm: The Athletics have begun informing some teams that they’re no longer in the running for right-hander Frankie Montas, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Yankees are among the clubs who are still in the bidding, he adds.

It’s not clear just yet which clubs have been ruled out, but Montas has drawn widespread interest, with the Cardinals, Padres, Blue Jays and Twins among those who have joined the Yankees in their pursuit of the righty.

Astros Among Teams With Interest In Luis Castillo

By Anthony Franco | July 15, 2022 at 4:52pm CDT

Luis Castillo is among the league’s highest-profile trade candidates. The hard-throwing righty is having another excellent season, and with a year and a half of remaining club control, he’s a good bet to move from the 34-55 Reds to a contender in the next couple weeks.

Virtually every win-now team figures to inquire on Castillo, who’d upgrade any rotation. The Dodgers, Yankees, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Mariners, and Twins have all been linked to tied to the Cincinnati starter in recent weeks. Erik Boland of Newsday (Twitter link) and Sweeny Murti of WFAN (on Twitter) both report the Astros are also in the mix. Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds that teams like the Mets and Padres, who’d been linked to Castillo early in the process, are likelier to prioritize adding offensive help than an impact starter.

That said, even teams with enviable rotation depth figure to at least kick the tires on Castillo over the coming weeks. Houston’s interest is indicative of that, as they have arguably the best starting pitching outlook in the game. Astros starters rank second in the majors in ERA (3.15) and innings pitched (505), while they’re ninth in strikeout percentage (23.6%). That’s in spite of zero contributions from Lance McCullers Jr., perhaps the team’s top pitcher in 2021, as he’s rehabbed from a forearm issue.

Few teams would be able to comfortably withstand an injury to a pitcher of McCullers’ caliber, but Houston’s rotation has thrived nevertheless. All six of the Astros starters to eclipse 30 innings this season have an ERA of 4.08 or lower. Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez own sub-3.00 marks. Cristian Javier and Luis Garcia are in the mid-3.00s with strong strikeout totals, while Jake Odorizzi (3.38) and José Urquidy (4.08) have solid results despite lacking huge whiff totals.

With McCullers also expected to return at some point after the All-Star Break, the Astros certainly don’t need to add another starter. Castillo’s performance, though, is impressive enough they’ll join virtually every other contender in checking in with Reds’ general manager Nick Krall and his staff. Despite pitching in a hitter-friendly home ballpark, Castillo has a 3.49 ERA with an above-average 26.8% strikeout rate and an elite 55.2% grounder percentage over the past three and a half seasons. That includes a personal-best 2.77 ERA through 13 starts this year. Castillo’s swinging strike and ground-ball numbers are down a touch, but he’s still been better than league average in both regards.

Castillo has been especially excellent of late, pitching at peak form as the August 2 deadline draws nearer. He’s allowed one or fewer runs in each of his past four outings, striking out 33 against nine walks over his last 27 innings. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic examined Castillo’s strong recent run this morning, noting that the right-hander worked with the Cincinnati coaching staff to tweak the grip on his four-seam fastball this year.

In addition to his excellent results, the 29-year-old would be an eminently affordable pickup for acquiring teams. He’s playing this season on a $7.35MM salary, approximately $2.9MM of which will remain to be paid out after the deadline. He should be in line for a decent arbitration raise next winter, but even a 2023 salary in the $12-15MM range would be a strong bargain for a pitcher of his caliber.

Cincinnati is widely expected to field offers on both Castillo and rotation mate Tyler Mahle, who is also in his penultimate year of club control. Andy Martino of SNY reports that talks on at least the former have yet to get underway in much detail, suggesting those discussions figure to accelerate after the upcoming amateur draft. The Reds are sure to set a lofty asking price once discussions begin in earnest. Heyman wrote earlier this week that Cincinnati was looking for one of the Yankees’ top shortstop prospects, Anthony Volpe or Oswald Peraza, to get Castillo talks underway. Heyman suggested last night that New York remains firmly against parting with either player, even after losing Luis Severino to the injured list due to a lat strain.

Luis Castillo Drawing Widespread Interest; Reds Not Close To Any Deal

By Anthony Franco | July 12, 2022 at 8:37am CDT

July 12: The Reds aren’t close to any trades as of this morning, tweets Jim Bowden of The Athletic, who adds that “most” contending clubs have checked in on Cincinnati. That includes both the Cardinals and the Mariners, who have not been prominently linked to Castillo until this point (but who both make logical sense as a potential landing spot).

July 11: The Dodgers and Reds have had preliminary talks about Cincinnati starter Luis Castillo, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). Los Angeles joins a growing list of contenders known to be in contact with the Reds front office.

Castillo is one of the sport’s most obvious trade candidates, placing fourth on MLBTR’s Top 50 list last week. The right-hander is arbitration-eligible through 2023, but Cincinnati has no hope of competing this season. With the opportunity to market two possible postseason pushes to contenders, Castillo’s value around the league will never be higher than it is this summer. Teams like the Twins, Padres, Mets, Yankees, and Blue Jays have all been reported to have inquired in recent weeks. That’s presumably not an exhaustive list, as virtually every contender is likely to check in with Cincinnati general manager Nick Krall and his staff.

The 29-year-old Castillo carries a personal-best 2.92 ERA through his first 12 starts of the season. He’s been in peak form of late, tossing 20 innings of three-run ball with 25 strikeouts and five walks over his past three outings. Of course, Castillo has a multi-year track record as one of the sport’s better pitchers. He’s allowed fewer than four earned runs per nine innings in five of his six big league campaigns. One of the game’s hardest throwers, he typically blends a rare combination of swing-and-miss and ground-ball upside. This season’s respective 25.3% strikeout rate and 49.7% grounder percentage are both down a bit from his best levels, but each remains decidedly above-average.

Castillo missed the first month of this season with shoulder soreness. That set him off on a less than ideal start, but he’s rounded into form over the past few weeks. Although his fastball velocity was down a tick in May, he’s built arm strength as the season has worn on. According to Statcast, Castillo has averaged 97.7 MPH on his four-seam and 97.1 MPH on his sinker through his two starts this month. That’s in line with or better than last year’s respective 97.1 MPH and 97.3 MPH season averages, seemingly putting away any concerns clubs might’ve had stemming from his early-season injury.

Alongside teammate Tyler Mahle and A’s hurler Frankie Montas, Castillo is one of three high-octane controllable starters widely expected to be available at the deadline. Mahle is on the 15-day injured list with a shoulder strain, while Montas is dealing with some shoulder inflammation. Mahle has indicated he expects to be reinstated well in advance of the August 2 deadline, though, and the A’s remain hopeful that Montas can avoid the IL entirely and start this week (link via Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle). Even if all three pitchers are healthy, one could argue for Castillo to land the strongest return based on his track record and recent dominance.

The Reds are understandably setting their sights high in discussions. Jon Heyman of the New York reports that Cincinnati has sought one of Anthony Volpe or Oswald Peraza as a headliner in talks with the Yankees. Each player is a top shortstop prospect, with Volpe topping the Yankees’ farm rankings and placing among the 15 best farmhands leaguewide at each of Baseball America, FanGraphs, ESPN and the Athletic heading into the 2022 season. Peraza is generally regarded as the second or third-best player in the New York system; he landed second in the organization and 79th overall on BA’s recent Top 100 update.

It’s hard to envision New York parting with Volpe in any trade, but a player of Peraza’s caliber is a reasonable starting point for the Cincinnati front office. The Blue Jays sent the Twins two prospects generally regarded as top 100 talents (Austin Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson) for a year and a half of José Berríos’ services last summer. Martin was a somewhat divisive player but just a season removed from being drafted fifth and ranked by most outlets as a top 50 overall talent at the time of the deal.

Peraza isn’t having a great season offensively in Triple-A (.242/.313/.411 through 275 plate appearances), but he’s young for the level, having just turned 22. He’s viewed as a strong defensive player, and the Yankees’ belief in he and Volpe was cited frequently as a reason for the club declining to aggressively pursue the big-ticket free agent shortstops available last winter.

Whether or not the Yankees are willing to entertain the possibility of putting Peraza in a Castillo trade, the lofty reported ask reflects the Reds’ leverage in dangling an arm of his caliber. They’ll certainly look towards the upper ranks of the farm systems of other clubs inquiring over the next few weeks. In all likelihood, talks with myriad teams will continue until the days immediately preceding the deadline and perhaps into August 2 itself.

Big Hype Prospects: Rutschman, Carroll, Yorke, Peraza, Tovar

By Brad Johnson | July 1, 2022 at 4:38pm CDT

This week, we touch on a couple impending prospect graduates and look ahead for potential future promotions.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Adley Rutschman, 24, C, BAL (MLB)

129 PA, 3 HR, 1 SB, .220/.287/.407

Rutschman’s prospect eligibility will officially expire with his next plate appearance. In a recent fantasy chat, I received a question about his disappointing performance to date. Contrary to that framing, I’ve found his play to be highly encouraging even if he hasn’t immediately incinerated all competition. His current triple-slash is good for a 96 wRC+. That’s only four percent worse than the average Major Leaguer. This season, there are only 18 catchers with a better wRC+ and at least 100 plate appearances. Rutschman is sandwiched between Sean Murphy and Daulton Varsho. He’s ahead of a slumping J.T. Realmuto. This is not a bad way to debut.

Moreover, he’s performed well in every facet of the game. Even his baserunning has contributed positively. His strikeout rate is better than league average. He swings at considerably fewer pitches out of the zone than the average hitter. He swings more often in-zone. His exit velocities are above average. His launch angle is a tad steep at present, a symptom of a couple extra infield flies. He hasn’t had issues with those in the past and will probably adjust. His current .253 BABIP has room to expand northwards, and his strikeouts could decline below his already-good rate.

Rutschman never projected as a Trout-ian hitter so it’s unfair to have expected more from his first 129 plate appearances. His value to the Orioles comes from a well-rounded skill set that lacks for notable weaknesses at a famously light-hitting position.

Corbin Carroll, 21, SS, SDP (AA)

277 PA, 16 HR, 20 SB, .313/.430/.643

Few players are more overdue for a promotion than Carroll. Diamondbacks personnel are on the record as stating he won’t skip Triple-A like Braves prospect Michael Harris. That makes sense. The Braves called upon Harris to support their title defense. The Diamondbacks are fading fast in their Wild Card chase. Barring a couple miracle weeks, they’re on their way to selling at the trade deadline. There’s no urgency to bring Carroll to Chase Field this season.

Carroll is currently on the injured list with an undisclosed injury. He finished June with a .366/.452/.704 slash in 84 plate appearances. For those hoping to see Carroll in the Majors this season, multiple regulars might need to be cleared out of the way. Arizona has excellent outfield depth in the upper minors. They’ve been frantically assessing the likes of Jake McCarthy, Cooper Hummel, and Pavin Smith to determine which will support the future outfield of Carroll, Varsho, and Alek Thomas and which should be expended.

Nick Yorke, 20, 2B, (A+)

198 PA, 5 HR, 5 SB, .235/.308/.346

Some observers mocked the Red Sox when they selected Yorke in the first round of the 2020 draft. He proceeded to have a truly excellent 2021 campaign split between Low- and High-A. He returned to High-A this spring for what many hoped would be a brief stint. Instead, he appears to have stalled.

Part of the issue is health-based. A case of turf-toe held him out for most of a month. He returned on June 21 and has looked rusty since – .179/.258/.286 with a 38.7 percent strikeout rate in 31 plate appearances. Scouting reports tend to be complementary of Yorke’s gamesmanship, believing he’ll play well beyond what can only be described as ordinary scouting tools.

Based solely on his performance data, my theory is he attempted to sell out for more power this season. His pulled contact rate increased sharply as did his swinging strike rates. It could also be a simple matter of better pitching in the low minors this season. Pitching inventories were completely exhausted last year due to many clubs carefully managing their best arms on the heels of the lost COVID season. Regardless of explanation, Yorke’s reputation as a grinder with a good baseball IQ suggests he should overcome this temporary setback. He’s still on pace to be one of the youngest players in Double-A later this season.

Oswald Peraza, 22, SS, NYY (AAA)

249 PA, 9 HR, 16 SB, .240/.309/.404

There’s a certain tyranny to developmental expectations these days. Peraza razed High-A in 2021 then performed well-enough in Double-A to earn a brief call-up to Triple-A. The Yankees returned him to Triple-A at the start of this season, but it might have been more appropriate to continue his development in Double-A. His plate approach could use refinement. He appears to have the raw tools and judgment to be disciplined but instead errs on the side of aggression. His swing is balanced and covers the zone well, especially low-to-high. I perceive some potential for big league pitchers to successfully nibble the outer edge against him, but that’s just me editorializing. I haven’t seen that mentioned in any scouting reports.

Peraza has a high-floor approach as a defensively capable shortstop with sufficient contact skills to keep his head above water. He’s also on the 40-man roster and might be the only plausible option to fill in if Gleyber Torres or Isiah Kiner-Falefa ever need an extended absence.

Ezequiel Tovar, 20, SS, COL (AA)

295 PA, 13 HR, 17 SB, .318/.386/.545

Entering this season, scouting reports focused on Tovar’s defensive prowess while downplaying his potential to hit for power. FanGraphs went so far as to comp him to a “right-handed Nicky Lopez.” The minor league stats aren’t really matching those paltry expectations.

Last season, Tovar delivered 11 home runs in 326 Low-A plate appearances. It’s uncommon for 19-year-olds to deliver a home run every 30 plate appearances – even the ones we think will one day hit for power. As you can see, he’s performing similarly in Double-A this season as one of the youngest players in the league. He currently leads the Eastern League in batting average and ranks fourth in wOBA (Gunnar Henderson still qualifies for the lead).

The main critique of Tovar is his willingness to expand the strike zone. This leads to a low walk rate, too many swinging strikes, and, as he advances, risk of weak contact on balls outside the zone. The other side of the coin is this – he expands the zone because he’s talented enough to do so. The right adjustments could unlock an incredible outcome – and another elite shortstop for the Rockies franchise.

Five More

Triston Casas, BOS (22): An ankle injury has kept Casas out of action since mid-May. He might have missed a chance to squeeze onto the big league roster. Presently, Bobby Dalbec and Franchy Cordero are performing decently as a first base platoon, but there was a window when Dalbec looked to have fallen out of favor. Casas has resumed fielding work and hitting off a tee. He should progress to game scenarios soon.

DL Hall, BAL (23): The good news for Hall is he’s pitching deeper into his outings. He’s averaged 21 batters faced over his last four starts which is right on par with the workload handled by short-burst starters in the Majors. The bad news is, in those four starts, he’s allowed 16 runs (11 earned) over just 16.2 innings. The two most recent outings – both against the Phillies affiliate – are to blame. He issued 10 walks against only five strikeouts in those appearances. Walks (6.57 BB/9) have been a season-long issue.

Michael Harris, ATL (21): Like Rutschman, this could be Harris’ last episode of BHP as a prospect-eligible player. He’s already at 118 plate appearances and should surpass the 130-plate appearance rookie-threshold by the end of the weekend. His early success (139 wRC+) comes with a few red flags. He’s needed a .402 BABIP and a hyperaggressive approach to overcome an elevated 14.9 percent swinging strike rate. Projection systems believe he’ll regress to slightly below league average as a hitter.

Ivan Herrera, STL (22): The heir apparent to Yadier Molina, Herrera has seen semi-regular action in the Majors while Molina is on the mend from a knee injury. His first taste of the Majors hasn’t gone well yet. He has just two hits, two walks, and seven strikeouts in 18 plate appearances. However, he hit well in Triple-A (.291/.388/.436) and figures to settle in as a plus-defender with a knack for barreled, low-angle contact.

Josh Smith, TEX (24): A key component of the Joey Gallo trade, Smith recently returned from the injured list and has held his own in the Majors. He’s batting an OBP-centric .258/.439/.290. He has a similar hit tool and plate discipline to Rays utility man Taylor Walls with a little more built-in power. He gives every indication of becoming at least a league average hitter who can man most positions.

Latest On Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien

By Darragh McDonald | November 17, 2021 at 10:20pm CDT

The deadline for players issued qualifying offers to decide on whether or not to accept has now passed, with Brandon Belt of the Giants being the only one out of the group of 14 to accept and return to his previous team. That means the 13 players who turned down the $18.4MM offer are now attached to draft pick forfeiture, including Carlos Correa. Of course, a player of Correa’s skill level won’t see his market greatly affected by a detail like that. In fact, MLBTR recently placed the star shortstop at the top of this year’s list of free agents and projected that he would land a contract of $320MM over ten years, despite the qualifying offer.

Another thing that apparently won’t stand in his way is any lingering resentment out of the Yankee organization in regard to the 2017 Astros sign-stealing scandal. It has been speculated by some people that the Yankees may not want to make a high profile acquisition of Correa, given he was a member of that now-infamous team, which defeated the Yankees in the ALCS before going on to beat the Dodgers in the World Series. But the Yankees decision makers have made comments that seem to suggest it won’t be an issue for them.

When asked if the scandal would play a role in how the team views Correa, Boone said “No,” per Dan Martin of the New York Post, but did acknowledge that the players would have to feel the same way. “Anytime we’re involved in a free agent that’s of large significance and will attract a lot of years and dollars, we’re all gonna feel really good about it.” The article also relays a statement general manager Brian Cashman made last week, saying, “Things like [fan or player sentiment are] not part of that process.”

Hal Steinbrenner evidently feels similar, as Jeff Passan of ESPN relays a quote from the team’s managing partner. “I think most people have moved on from that,” he said. “I mean, I think it’s only healthy to move on from things like that instead of stewing on it year after year. But, you know, people have the opinion that they want to have about that particular player. But, in general, we’re going to look at every single option. It’s the same thing we do every year.”

That’s surely good news for Correa, as he and his representatives will want as many teams in the bidding as possible, especially historically big spenders such as the Yankees. The club is certainly a fit for a shortstop, since moving Gleyber Torres to second base in September. However, they may opt not to make a long commitment to Correa, or any of the other highly-touted free agent shortstops, on account of prospects Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe. “No question that factors in because we do feel in Peraza and Volpe we do have two long-time impact big-league players,’’ said Boone. “We’re excited about those players and believe they are real. That factors into any decisions the organization and [Cashman] make.”

Volpe is generally regarded above Peraza by prospect evaluators, as he is ranked the 18th prospect in all of baseball by FanGraphs, 22nd by Baseball America and 15th by MLB Pipeline, whereas Pereza comes in 48th for FanGraphs and 58th for both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. However, Volpe has only climbed as far as High-A in the Yankees’ system, meaning he’s unlikely to be an option for the big league club in the short term. Peraza, on the other hand, played most of 2021 at Double-A and finished the season with eight games at Triple-A, making it at least feasible that the club decides to forego a big expenditure at the position, although it’s also possible that’s just posturing for negotiating purposes.

Elsewhere around the league, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times doesn’t see the Mariners as a fit for Correa, based on the contract length. He reports that it’s believed Correa is trying to get within range of Francisco Lindor’s $341MM ten-year extension or “at least an 8- to 9-year deal with an average of $30 million per season and an opt-out clause.” Divish opines that Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto may not want to sign a contract of quite that length, based on his personal experiences trying to work around contracts like that, citing the Albert Pujols contract from Dipoto’s time in Anaheim as well as the Robinson Cano contract that was already on the books when he came to Seattle.

Marcus Semien, however, could be a better fit for the Mariners. He’s almost exactly four years older than Correa – 31 and 27, respectively – meaning he won’t be able to demand a contract of quite the same length. MLBTR predicted he could garner a contract of $138MM over six years, an average annual value of $23MM. But Divish has a different framing on the situation, saying, “The thinking is that the Mariners might have to offer him a five-year, $140-$150 million contract to keep him from going to San Francisco or New York on a four-year deal.”

$150MM over five years would be $30MM per season and make Semien one of the highest-paid players in the game by average annual value, which would be an incredible feat considering that he had to settle for a one-year, $18MM contract with the Blue Jays when he was a free agent a year ago. Like Correa, he also turned down a qualifying offer this week and will now be tied to draft pick forfeiture.

Yankees Attempted To Acquire Andrelton Simmons At Trade Deadline

By TC Zencka | October 9, 2021 at 11:11am CDT

Upon first glance, it would be natural to expect the Yankees to be active in exploring this winter’s deep class of free agent shortstops. Once they bit the bullet and officially moved Gleyber Torres off shortstop, their need at the position became explicit. Prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza have impressed enough, however, that the Yanks could choose a short-term bridge option as they await further development for their youngsters, suggests Andy Martino of SNY.tv.

Andrelton Simmons might fit the bill as a short-term option. The Yankees tried to acquire Simmons at the trade deadline, Martino notes, and they could be again as a fill-in with defensive upside that might complement Torres’ skill-set up the middle. Yankee fans might dream a little bigger, considering Simmons’ .223/.283/.274 line across 451 plate appearances with the Twins.

Martino also suggests Marcus Semien as a potential short-term option, given his now-proven ability to play second base, should they want to make room for Volpe or Peraza when they’re ready. There figures to be quite a bit more competition for Semien’s services after another MVP-caliber year. The Yankees, of course, have the means to compete with anyone, and they are one of a choice few teams with a clear need at shortstop.

In terms of their potential competition, the Tigers could upgrade shortstop, making Niko Goodrum a super-utility player as they look to turn the page on their rebuild. The Nationals can do the same with Alcides Escobar, and they have some money to spend should they want to an immediate replacement for Trea Turner. The Orioles don’t have a clear long-term solution at short, but they might not be ready to spend significantly in free agency.

There are plenty of other teams that could keep a star shortstop from simply falling in the Yankees’ lap. The Blue Jays will need to replace Semien if they don’t bring him back. The Angels and A’s could both stand to upgrade. Thinking outside the box a little, the Phillies could push for a shortstop, given Didi Gregorius’ down year and their clear desire to compete. There might even be more teams looking for a short-term option like Simmons than there are clubs with surefire intentions to pursue the Correa/Seager/Story/Baez/Semien/Taylor class of free agent. Regardless, the Yankees figure to be players somewhere in the market this winter.

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