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Yoshinobu Yamamoto

NPB Players To Watch: July

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The NPB All-Star Game wrapped up this week and the second half of the 2023 season is set to start back up tomorrow. Let’s catch up with the NPB stars who may be making their way to MLB. 

For more detailed profiles and playstyles, please take a look at the first post of the series from April!

Players likely available in the 2023 offseason (most rumored or have publicly announced desire to play in MLB)

1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Orix Buffaloes

In the last update, I wrote that Yamamoto had his best month of the season. The 24-year-old right-hander has maintained his excellent form through June and through the All-Star break. Outside of a June 23 start against the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks where he gave up four runs in six innings, he’s tossed at least eight innings of one-run ball in each of his last three starts, including a complete game against the Saitama Seibu Lions on July 8. 

On the season, Yamamoto has a 1.74 ERA, a solid 28.7 K%, and an impressive 3.3 BB% in 13 starts and 93 ⅓ innings pitched. He’s fourth in the Pacific League in innings despite having three fewer starts than the league leader. He’s issued just one walk in his past four starts, and hitters have a .201 batting average against him. He was a surprise and controversial snub from the initial All-Star ballot, but was eventually voted in through the “Plus One” runoff voting to earn his fifth consecutive All-Star nod. 

MLB teams are ramping up their interest in Yamamoto, with scouts of eight teams attending his July 8th start, per Sports Hochi. He also ranks second in MLBTR’s recent 2023 free agency power rankings, and as Steve Adams writes, “A contract in excess of $200MM doesn’t seem outlandish if he can remain healthy and productive.”

2. Shota Imanaga, Yokohama DeNA Baystars

The 29-year-old left-hander has been at his very best since the last update, allowing just three runs in 32 innings in his last four starts — including a one-run, complete game against the Hanshin Tigers on June 23 and a seven-inning, 15-strikeout gem against the Yomiuri Giants on July 7. He finished June with a 1.41 ERA and has a 0.60 ERA thus far in July. 

Imanaga’s ERA is down to 2.07, which is fourth among qualified pitchers in the Central League, with a 28.5 K% and a minuscule 2.4 BB% in 12 starts and 87 innings pitched. These stats were good enough for the lefty to get to his second career All-Star nod. Although he is still prone to long balls with 11 homers allowed on the season, he’s otherwise avoided trouble. Imanaga’s chances of coming to MLB are pretty high, as he signed with the U.S.-based agency Octagon to help talks toward a posting agreement last offseason. 

3. Yuki Matsui, Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles

The 27-year-old left-hander finished the first half with 23 saves, tied for most in NPB. He’s yet to give up a run in eight appearances in July and has been key to the Eagles going 11-3 in the month. The increased workload is a big contrast from NPB updates earlier in the season where Matsui didn’t have as many appearances due to the Eagles’ poor record. 

Matsui has a 0.55 ERA in 34 appearances, with a 36.3 K% and a 4.1 BB%. Although he was snubbed from the All-Star Game, Matsui is happy with the rest. “I’m thankful [for the increased workload], it’s my job to close out games and win so it’s a good thing,” Matsui said. Matsui has still not made his plans beyond 2023 clear, but he is definitely a name to keep an eye on for teams that need a lefty for their bullpen.

4. Kona Takahashi, Saitama Seibu Lions

Takahashi has had a rough July on paper, recording a 3.79 ERA in three starts, including two outings lasting just five innings. He’s bounced back from those outings in his most recent start on July 16, tossing a four-hit, six-strikeout, complete game shutout against the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters. It was his first shutout since 2020 and the fourth of his career.

The 26-year-old right-hander’s ERA now sits at 2.25 despite the rough starts in the past few months, with a 19.1 K% and a 6.8 BB% in 16 starts and 108 innings pitched. Takahashi also missed out on the All-Star game despite his strong performance in the first half thanks to a deep pool of quality starters in the Pacific League.

Takahashi’s strikeout rate has dropped in the past few weeks, but increased average fastball velocity and ability to eat innings should still be appealing to MLB teams looking for some starting pitching help. 

5. Naoyuki Uwasawa, Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters

In the last update, I wrote that Uwasawa was back to his best, and finishing the season closer to a 2.50 ERA would help his chances for an MLB contract this offseason. The 29-year-old right-hander followed up his strong June with solid performances in July, including eight shutout innings against the Lions this past weekend. 

His season ERA is down to 2.87 with a 17.3 K% and 7.4 BB%. If you remove his worst start of the season against the Lions on April 15 (where he gave up eight earned runs in 5 ⅓ innings), his ERA goes all the way down to 2.31. It’s quite a remarkable turnaround for Uwasawa considering that his ERA was up to 4.62 on May 6. He is third in the Pacific League with 106 ⅔ innings in 15 starts. Uwasawa received his second career All-Star nod, his first since 2021. 

Younger stars to keep an eye on

1. Roki Sasaki, Chiba Lotte Marines

In his last three starts since the last update, Sasaki has allowed just one run in 22 frames while going at least seven innings and fanning at least 10 in every one of those starts. He also matched the record for the fastest NPB pitch at 103 MPH. In his most recent start, where he struck out 14 in seven innings, the average velocity on his fastball was at 99 MPH. There aren’t enough words to describe Sasaki’s dominance in the first half of 2023, as he finished with an NPB-best 1.48 ERA in 12 starts. He had an unfathomable 41 K%, 4.7 BB%, and a.151 opponent batting average in 79 innings pitched. It’s hard to imagine Sasaki can improve on these numbers, but with the combination of his age at 21 and 2023 being just his second full season of work, it’s certainly possible he reaches another level. Sasaki still has room to improve his in-game stamina and has some remaining physical projection. 

2. Munetaka Murakami, Tokyo Yakult Swallows

Murakami continues to look more like his Triple Crown-winning self, following up a strong June with a few solid weeks to finish up the first half of the season. He’s slashing .306/.352/.612 with four homers in July. Murakami finished the first half of the season slashing .242/.359/.451 with 16 homers and his OPS is finally above .800 at .809. Despite his horrendous slump to open the season, Murakami still finished the first half in the top three in homers and RBI in the Central League. He’s managed to regain some of his form  even though the Swallows are missing key lineup contributors with injuries: including perennial All-Star Tetsuto Yamada and Yasutaka Shiomi, who has been a .800 OPS hitter since 2020. Murakami is still striking out at an alarming 31% rate and has a strong 14.2 BB%. Murakami missed out on the All-Star Game, 

3. Kazuma Okamoto, Yomiuri Giants

Although the 27-year-old corner infielder is slashing a .297/.393/.557 with a .950 OPS, 20 homers, and 51 RBIs (all in the three in all categories in the Central League), Okamoto has cooled off significantly in July, slashing just .208/.328/.375. The All-Star break could not have come at a better time for Okamoto, who had just two hits out of 26 plate appearances in his last six games to close the first half. He was the first to reach the 20-homer mark in NPB on July 7, on a solo homer off of Imanaga, but hasn’t added to his tally since. Despite the mini-slump, Okamoto is still on pace for what would be his sixth consecutive 30-homer season.

An interesting note is that he has been mashing lefties this season, slashing .355/.463/.656 in 110 plate appearances. If he is able to continue to mash lefties, the combination of Okamoto’s consistent power numbers, solid defense at the corners (two-time Gold Glove winner), and potential for positional versatility (taking reps at left field this year) should be a compelling package for MLB teams looking to add a right-handed power bat. 

Honorable Mentions

The following players have either expressed their desire to play in the big leagues, been rumored by Japanese media, or have drawn interest from MLB scouts but have factors (age, team stance on posting system) preventing a potential move. I’ve also added top performers who may be of interest.

Shosei Togo, right-handed starting pitcher, Yomiuri Giants; Taisei Ohta, right-handed reliever, Yomiuri Giants; Hiroto Takahashi, right-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Kaima Taira, right-handed starting pitcher, Saitama Seibu Lions; Atsuki Yuasa, right-handed reliever, Hanshin Tigers; Shinnosuke Ogasawara, left-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Shunpeita Yamashita, Orix Buffaloes; Atsuki Taneichi, right-handed starter, Chiba Lotte Marines.

2023-24 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings: June Edition

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We’re at the regular season’s halfway point, and the free-agent landscape has changed a fair bit since we last ran through our Power Rankings back in mid-April. Injuries, changes in performance — some for the better, some for the worse — and more have combined to provide more context as to what shape the top of the free agent market will take.

As a reminder, our Power Rankings are based primarily on perceived earning power. This is an exercise intended to provide a snapshot of where the top end of the free agent class is currently sitting. One player being ranked higher than another does not necessarily indicate we feel he’s the better player. Youth, health, qualifying offer status, market scarcity and myriad other factors all impact what a player can expect to earn in free agency.

Our power rankings are compiled collaboratively. MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes and writers Anthony Franco and Darragh McDonald all weighed in for this update. Players with opt-out clauses and player options are included, even if they’ve previously given indications they may forgo the opportunity to return to the market.

1. Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH, Angels: There are no surprises up top. Ohtani remains far and away the top name on this year’s list — so much so that he might even command double the No. 2 entrant on our list. That’s both a testament to his general excellence and an indictment on what is generally a weaker free agent class than is typical.

Ohtani, 29 in July, isn’t having quite as dominant a season on the mound as he did in 2022, but he’s still been quite good and is enjoying his best year to date with the bat. In 95 1/3 innings, the flamethrowing righty has pitched to a 3.02 ERA with a 33.2% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate. The latter is a marked uptick from the 6.7% he logged a year ago. Ohtani’s strikeout rate is only down about half a percentage point from its 2022 levels, but he’s seen more notable drops in swinging-strike rate (from 14.9% to 13.5%) and opponents’ chase rate (32.6% to 29.5%). This is also the most homer-prone he’s ever been on the mound; his 1.13 HR/9 is a career-high, and the 12 homers he’s allowed in 95 1/3 innings innings are already just two shy of last year’s total of 14 — which came over a span of 166 frames.

To some extent, that’s just nitpicking. Ohtani has still been excellent. His ERA ranks 15th among qualified starting pitchers, and only Atlanta’s Spencer Strider has a higher strikeout rate. He currently ranks sixth among qualified pitchers in K-BB% (23%), and fielding-independent metrics are generally supportive of his success (e.g. 3.40 SIERA, 3.35 xERA). Hitters simply haven’t been able to make good contact against Ohtani, outside that handful of home runs anyway. His 86 mph average opponents’ exit velocity is in the 93rd percentile of MLB pitchers. His 34.8% opponents’ hard-hit rate is in the 77th percentile. He’s induced grounders at a solid 44.4% clip. The uptick in walks is significant, but that’s only taken Ohtani from an ace-level performer to a slight step below that level.

And of course, when discussing Ohtani, the mound work is only half the equation. His work in the batter’s box this season has been nothing short of sensational. In 360 plate appearances, Ohtani is batting .309/.389/659. That’s 82% better than league-average production after weighting for home park, by measure of wRC+. Ohtani has already belted 28 home runs, and he’s added 15 doubles and five triples while swiping 11 bags (in 15 tries). This year’s 11.4% walk rate is right an exact match for his career mark (although shy of his 15.6% peak), and his 21.7% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career.

Ohtani has averaged an obscene 93.7 mph off the bat this year and ranks in the 95th percentile (or better) of MLB hitters in exit velocity, barrel rate, expected slugging percentage and expected wOBA. He’s a bona fide middle-of-the-order bat with the speed to swipe 25 to 30 bases and the power to clear 40 home runs.

When chatting about this update to our Power Rankings, Anthony Franco rhetorically asked me if I thought Ohtani the hitter and Ohtani the pitcher (if somehow separated) would both still individually rank ahead of the rest of this year’s class of free agents. We both agreed that they would. Fortunately, one team will get both this offseason — it just might cost more than half a billion dollars.

2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP, Orix Buffaloes (Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball): Many people have wondered what type of contract Ohtani might have originally commanded if he’d waited two years to jump to Major League Baseball. Because he opted to make the jump at 23 years of age, he was considered an “amateur” under MLB rules and thus limited to the confines of MLB’s international free agent system. Since he’s not also a world class hitter, Yamamoto won’t give us an exact answer to that now-unanswerable Ohtani hypothetical, but he’ll show us what a 25-year-old ace can command under true open-market pricing if and when the Buffaloes post him, as expected.

Yamamoto, 25 in August, is one of the best pitchers in NPB and perhaps one of the most talented arms on the planet. The right-hander made his NPB debut as an 18-year-old rookie in 2017, stepped into the Buffaloes’ rotation full-time in 2019, and has pitched to a sub-2.00 ERA in four of the past five seasons, including this year’s current mark of 1.98. The lone exception was 2020, when his ERA ballooned all the way to… ahem, 2.20. Yamamoto has a sub-2.00 ERA in his career, and that’s including the 5.32 mark he posted in that age-18 rookie season.

So far in 2023, Yamamoto has pitched 68 1/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, a 27.8% strikeout rate and a superlative 4.1% walk rate. Just 11 of the 266 batters he’s faced have drawn a free pass. That’s a career-best mark for a pitcher who’s long had outstanding command but has continually whittled away at his walk rate over the years. In his NPB career, Yamamoto has walked just 6.1% of opponents against a 26.5% strikeout rate.

MLBTR contributor Dai Takegami Podziewski kicked off his latest NPB Players To Watch piece with a look at Yamamoto’s recent run of dominance: a stretch of three consecutive eight-inning starts with just one run allowed and a 29.8% strikeout rate and .092 opponents’ average along the way. World Baseball Classic fans may remember Yamamoto’s performance as well: in 7 1/3 innings he allowed just two runs on four hits and two walks with 12 strikeouts. Back in April, Dai described Yamamoto as the “undisputed ace of NPB,” noting that he’s won the Sawamura Award (NPB’s Cy Young equivalent) in each of the past two seasons. He also won the pitching triple crown (ERA, strikeouts, wins) in 2021-22 and has a chance to repeat the feat in 2023.

Like so many pitchers these days, Yamamoto boasts a mid- to upper-90s heater. Scouts credit him with a potentially plus-plus splitter and give favorable reviews of his curveball and general athleticism as well. Presumably, there’s some trepidation regarding a pitcher who’s listed at just 5’10” and 169 pounds, and whoever signs him will have to pay a posting/release fee to the Buffaloes. Those are about the only “red flags” in Yamamoto’s profile.

Yamamoto’s countryman, Kodai Senga, has had some inconsistent command but generally performed well since signing a five-year, $75MM deal with the Mets. In an offseason piece, Joel Sherman of the New York Post quoted an evaluator who graded Yamamoto a full grade better than Senga on the 20-80 scale. And, it bears emphasizing, Yamamoto is five years younger than Senga. We haven’t seen a pitcher with this type of pedigree make the jump from Japan without any spending restrictions since Masahiro Tanaka signed a seven-year, $155MM deal with the Yankees. Yamamoto is younger than Tanaka was, he’s arguably better, and the price of pitching has only gone up since that time. A contract in excess of $200MM doesn’t seem outlandish if he can remain healthy and productive.

3. Matt Chapman, 3B, Blue Jays: It’s been a tale of two seasons for Chapman, who was perhaps baseball’s best hitter in April and one of its worst in May. The slump has been longer than the hot streak at this point, although the aggregate .265/.343/.457 slash is still well above league average (23% better, by measure of wRC+). Paired with his characteristically excellent defense (7 Defensive Runs Saved and 4 Outs Above Average already), and Chapman’s still been an undeniably valuable player, even if the nature of his contributions for the Jays have been quite frontloaded in the schedule’s early portion.

That said, it’s still incumbent upon Chapman to turn things around at the plate sooner than later. The weight of that early, Herculean stretch will continually diminish, and the current version of the former All-Star simply isn’t that compelling. Early in the year, Chapman was regularly making blistering contact and had dramatically cut back on his strikeouts. In writing about his brilliant start to the season in early May, I pointed out that he’d begun to let the strikeouts creep back in and wondered whether that was a mere blip or the onset of some regression.

Unfortunately, the strikeout issues that have dogged Chapman in the aftermath of his 2020 hip surgery have resurfaced. Dating back to May 1, Chapman is hitting just .203/.279/.339 with an a 30.2% strikeout rate. He’s still walking at a respectable 8.8% rate, and his quality of contact is excellent. Chapman is averaging 92.4 mph off the bat and hitting the ball at 95 mph or better in 52.7% of his plate appearances even during this prolonged slump. After benefiting from a .449 BABIP early in the year, he’s seen that mark swing down to .269 in May and June.

In all likelihood, the “true” results are somewhere between the two extremes of Chapman’s 2023 season. He’s not the hitter he was in April, but he’s certainly better than he’s been in May and June. The question is whether Chapman can curb the strikeouts moving forward. His propensity for thunderous contact (when he makes it) should lead to some positive regression and once again begin to produce better results. But if he fans at a 30% clip from here on out, there may not be enough balls in play to help him prop his stat line back up. Furthermore, it’d mark the third time in four seasons he finished at or above a 30% strikeout rate, which doesn’t inspire much confidence over the course of a long-term deal.

Chapman still ranks prominently here because the overall numbers are still good, and because, frankly, the crop of position players this offseason is dreadful. In fact, he’s the only pure position player on this installment of our Power Rankings, which is unprecedented. If Chapman can sustain his quality of contact and scale back the strikeouts slightly, he could still find a seven- or eight-year deal heading into his age-31 season. His overall production right now is comparable to the output posted by Kris Bryant in advance of his foray into free agency (which resulted in a seven-year, $182MM contract), and Chapman has far more defensive value than Bryant.

4. Lucas Giolito, SP, White Sox: It’s been a tough start to the year for a number of top free agent pitchers, but Giolito has generally pitched well. His strikeout rate is down from its 33.7% peak, but he’s still fanning more than a quarter of his opponents with his typical brand of better-than-average command (7.5% walk rate). It’s too soon to tell is this is a trend, but it bears mentioning that Giolito has upped his slider usage recently and seen a notable increase in strikeouts. Over his past five starts, he’s thrown the slider at a 35.8% clip, as compared to his prior 28.4% usage rate. It’s not a massive increase, but Giolito had just three starts with a slider rate of 30% or more in his first 11 trips to the hill; since May 30, he’s been between 31.4% and 41.2% in each start. It does seem to mark a clear change in attack plan, and after fanning 23.9% of hitters through those 11 starts, he’s up to 29.4% over his past five.

Giolito’s 93.3 mph average fastball is actually up slightly from 2022’s average of 92.7 mph. Home runs remain an issue (1.36 HR/9), and he’s been a bit more homer-prone on the road than in his hitter-friendly home park this year. That’s not the norm, however; the right-hander has allowed more than 1.5 homers per nine innings in his career at home but is at a much more palatable 1.16 mark on the road.

Giolito’s current 3.41 ERA would mark the fourth time in five seasons that he finished with an ERA between 3.41 and 3.53. Last year’s 4.90 looks like a clear outlier that was largely fueled by a career-high .340 average on balls in play. (The White Sox, notably, were among the game’s worst defensive teams in 2022.)

As with all free agents, age is crucial. In Giolito’s case, it’ll work in his favor. He’s 28 years old as of this writing and will turn 29 in mid-July. Even a seven-year contract would “only” carry through his age-35 season. It’s also worth noting that he’s been a frequently speculated trade candidate, and if he’s flipped to another club, he’d be ineligible to receive a qualifying offer. That carries significance in free agency, too.

Giolito might not be an ace, but he’s a surefire playoff starter for any team in Major League Baseball. He’s the second-youngest of the starters on this list with big league experience and has been a workhorse since 2018, ranking 10th among all MLB pitchers with 855 innings pitched in that time. Kevin Gausman (five years, $110MM) and Robbie Ray (five years, $115MM) signed similar contracts that began in their age-30 seasons. Neither had a track record as long as Giolito, who’ll be a year younger in his first free agent season. A six- or even seven-year deal could be in play, depending on how he finishes.

5. Julio Urias, SP, Dodgers: Urias is among the hardest players to peg among this year’s group. On the one hand, he posted a combined 2.63 ERA over 495 1/3 innings from 2019-22 and is slated to hit the open market in advance of age-27 season — a borderline unprecedentedly young age for a top-end starter to become a free agent. On the other, the lefty has been on the injured list for more than a month owing to a hamstring strain. He didn’t pitch all that well before landing on 15-day IL either. In 55 1/3 innings, Urias worked to a pedestrian 4.39 ERA, thanks primarily to a stunning uptick in home runs allowed; after yielding 0.98 homers per nine frames from ’19-’22, he’s allowed an average of 2.28 homers per nine innings in 2023.

That said, the rest of Urias’ numbers look quite similar to his peak output. His 23.3% strikeout rate is down a bit from the 24.7% he posted in 2019-22, but his 4.8% walk rate is notably better than his already strong 6.3% mark. His fastball velocity is right in line with last year’s level (when Urias notched a 2.16 ERA in 175 innings), as is his 10.8% swinging-strike rate. His 34.1% opponents’ chase rate remains strong.

The primary problem isn’t even an uptick in fly-balls, but rather in the percentage of those fly-balls that leave the yard. Entering the 2022 season, just 9.1% of the fly-balls allowed by Urias had become home runs. This year, it’s a staggering 20.3%. Broadly speaking, homer-to-flyball rate is susceptible to short-term spikes and tends to even out over a larger sample, but the uptick in homers hasn’t been well-timed. That’s doubly true given that for all of Urias’ success, he’s neither the flamethrowing powerhouse nor elite misser of bats that modern front offices covet. He’s succeeded thanks to elite command and by regularly limiting hard contact. Urias’ strikeout rates are typically a bit above average, but he’s never placed higher than the 67th percentile of MLB pitchers in overall strikeout rate.

That’s not to say Urias isn’t a desirable arm or won’t be a highly coveted pitcher. Prior to his injury, the MLBTR team had discussed possible contracts in excess of $200MM for the lefty, based both on his age and recent excellence. That’s perhaps a bit harder to see now, even if the current issue is a leg injury rather than an arm problem. Urias has only twice made 30 starts in a season, and he also has one major shoulder surgery already on his record (a 2017 procedure to repair a capsule tear).

A third consecutive 30-start season would’ve helped set aside a perceived lack of durability, but he won’t get there in 2023, even though he’s expected to return from the injured list as soon as this weekend. That’s not because of any arm troubles to date, and it should be noted that part of the reason for his lack of innings was some extreme workload management post-surgery that looks to have been effective, based on Urias’ 2021-22 results. Still, he hasn’t often worked a full starter’s slate of games, he won’t do it in 2023, and he hasn’t generated his typical results when healthy — even if most of the skill-oriented numbers remain similar to prior levels.

Urias will also have a qualifying offer to contend with, which isn’t true of every pitcher on these rankings. He’s undeniably talented and the clear youngest of the bunch, but it’d be easier to predict a massive long-term deal if he returns and starts producing more like he did in that aforementioned four-year peak.

6. Aaron Nola, SP, Phillies: Speaking of top-tier starters who haven’t performed up to expectations, the 30-year-old Nola finds himself in a precarious position. MLB’s consummate workhorse since his 2015 debut, Nola has pitched the third-most innings of the 2024 pitchers who’ve taken a big league mound since 2016 — his first full season in the Majors. Only Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer have topped Nola’s 1256 1/3 innings in that stretch.

For the majority of that time, Nola has operated on the periphery of ace-dom. He’s only a one-time All-Star and has never won a Cy Young, but the former No. 7 overall pick finished third place in 2017, seventh place in 2020 and fourth place just last year. During his 2017-22 peak, Nola notched a 3.48 ERA, 28.2% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate and 47.1% ground-ball rate. His 2022 season featured a terrific 29.1% strikeout rate and an elite 3.6% walk rate over the life of 205 innings — the second-most in all of baseball.

That version of Nola has been nowhere to be found in 2023. Through 105 2/3 innings, he’s posted a pedestrian 4.51 ERA with his lowest strikeout rate (23.9%) since his rookie season back in 2015. Nola’s 6.8% walk rate, while still a very strong mark, is his highest since 2020. He’s allowing more fly-balls than ever before, and unsurprisingly is allowing home runs at a career-worst rate (1.45 HR/9).

Fielding-independent metrics still believe Nola’s above-average strikeout rate, strong walk rate and ability to avoid hard contact ought to be translating to better results; his “expected” ERA is 3.53, per Statcast, while tools like FIP (4.28) and SIERA (4.00) agree he’s been short-changed a bit. Nola’s 65.1% strand rate, in particular, sits about eight percentage points below his career level and below the league average.

Heading into the season, a six- or seven-year deal seemed within reach for one of the game’s most durable and consistently above-average starting pitchers. He’s maintained the “durable” half of that equation, making 17 starts and averaging a hearty 6.22 innings per outing. The results haven’t been there, however, and Nola’s velocity is down about a half mile per hour on most of his pitches. It’s not the platform season he wanted, and even with the so-so results, he’ll surely still have a QO attached to him. There’s still an easy case for a long-term deal here, and a strong second half of the season would quiet a lot of these concerns. To this point, however, Nola has looked more like a mid-rotation starter than someone who’d be fronting a playoff staff.

7. Blake Snell, SP, Padres: Snell has been the best pitcher on the planet for the past month or so, generally erasing a terrible start to the season. This sort of Jekyll & Hyde performance is old hat for the former AL Cy Young winner, who closed out both the 2022 and 2021 seasons in dominant fashion, offsetting a wave of pedestrian starts in each instance. That endorsement of Snell’s past month isn’t even hyperbole; dating back to May 25, Snell has a comical 0.86 ERA with a 66-to-15 K/BB ratio in 42 innings. He’s fanned a massive 44.1% of his opponents against a better-than-average 8.1% walk rate.

Snell’s rollercoaster traits are nothing new, and they may scare some interested suitors in free agency. There’s no skirting the fact that he has a penchant for slow starts to the season, and when Snell is off his game, he can look lost. He doesn’t have pristine command in the first place, and walks become a particularly glaring issue when he’s in a rut. When he’s not as his best, Snell has a tendency to labor through short starts, which can tax a bullpen.

That said, here’s a look at Snell’s past 48 starts: 259 1/3 innings, 3.05 ERA, 33% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate, 0.90 HR/9, 36.9% ground-ball rate, .196 opponents’ average. The road he takes to get there may be infuriating at times, both for fans and his organization’s decision-makers, but Snell has clear top-of-the-rotation stuff. He’s currently riding a streak of four straight starts with double-digit strikeouts, during which he’s yielded just three runs.

The Padres can and very likely will make Snell a qualifying offer. He should reject while giving little, if any thought to the contrary. The qualifying offer and general inconsistency might hurt him, but there will also be teams who look at those factors as a possible avenue to signing a starter with genuine No. 1 talent at a cost that isn’t commensurate with those types of arms. Snell will pitch all of the 2024 season at age 31, and paired with his inconsistency, that might cap him at five years. But he should command $20MM per year over that five-year term, making a nine-figure deal within reach …. barring a second-half collapse that heightens concerns about the fluctuations in his performance.

8. Josh Hader, RP, Padres: Rumors of Hader’s demise as an elite closer last summer were greatly exaggerated, it seems. The four-time All-Star was struggling in the weeks leading up to his trade from Milwaukee to San Diego, and he didn’t help his cause when he allowed a dozen August runs following the swap. That slump was capped off by a six-run drubbing at the hands of a lowly Royals offense.

Since then, it’s been business as usual for Hader. The lefty quietly finished out the year with a 0.79 ERA in his final 11 1/3 innings. He was unscored upon from Sept. 7 through season’s end, and he went on to pitch another 5 1/3 shutout innings in the postseason, fanning 10 hitters in the process. Hader is now sitting on a sparkling 1.26 ERA. His 37.8% strikeout rate isn’t quite as high as his ridiculous 47.8% peak in 2019, but he still ranks among the league leaders in strikeout rate.

Since putting that six-run August meltdown against the Royals behind him, here’s Hader’s line (postseason included): 45 1/3 innings, 0.99 ERA, 38% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate, 29 saves.

Hader will be a year older in free agency than Edwin Diaz was when he set the relief pitcher record on a five-year, $102MM contract (which includes multiple opt-outs). That slight age gap will matter, but Hader has the longer and steadier track record of the two and could benefit from his handedness. So long as he keeps somewhere near this pace, he’ll take aim at making Diaz’s record short-lived.

9. Marcus Stroman, SP, Cubs: Stroman’s three-year, $71MM contract allows him to opt out of the final year this offseason. In doing so, he’d leave $21MM on the table, but there’s little doubt he’d be able to topple that mark in free agency. Stroman has already received a qualifying offer in his career, meaning he can’t receive a second one. He’s also the current MLB leader in bWAR (3.5) and third in the Majors in RA9-WAR (also 3.5). Through 102 innings, Stroman touts a 2.47 ERA and a 59.3% grounder rate that’s second only to Logan Webb among all qualified pitchers.

Good as Stroman’s results are, there’s some reason to be a bit skeptical on his earning power. He can surely outpace the $21MM he’d leave on the table by opting out, likely securing another multi-year deal in free agency. That said, Stroman’s profile hasn’t really changed since his last foray into the open market. He still has a below-average strikeout rate, and the lower-than-average walk rate he had last time around has crept up to about league average in 2023. He’s inducing more grounders than he has since 2018, but the primary reason for the drop in his ERA has been a career-low home run rate. Just 8.3% of the fly-balls allowed by Stroman have been homers — well shy of his 13.5% career mark.

Homer-to-flyball rate tends to stabilize over larger samples — Stroman was between 12.6% and 13.9% every year from 2018-22, for instance — so teams might essentially view him as the same pitcher he was in the 2021-22 offseason, just a couple years older. One factor working in Stroman’s favor is that the price of pitching has increased since then; Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker and Chris Bassitt all helped advance that market last offseason. Bassitt’s three-year, $63MM deal with the Blue Jays should be of particular note. He secured that contract despite being hit with a QO that Stroman won’t have to contend with, and did so heading into his age-34 season. Next year will be Stroman’s age-33 season. He should at least be able to secure a three-year deal at a larger AAV than Bassitt received. A four-year deal with an AAV north of $20MM is also possible.

10. Jordan Montgomery, SP, Cardinals: Montgomery had a pair of rough starts in the season’s first six weeks, allowing seven and six runs in that pair of outings and ballooning his ERA in the process. Things have largely evened out though, and Montgomery’s numbers look just as solid as they did when he was establishing himself as a mid-rotation hurler in the Bronx, Through 92 innings, he’s posted a 3.52 ERA with a 21.9% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate and 46.6% grounder rate that all line up neatly with his 2021-22 production.

Montgomery pitched just 31 1/3 big league innings in 2018-19 due to Tommy John surgery and struggled in the shortened 2020 campaign upon his return from that operation. Since Opening Day 2021, however, he carries a 3.66 ERA and matching secondary marks (3.61 FIP, 3.88 SIERA) in 421 innings. If the Cardinals don’t trade Montgomery, he’ll be a natural qualifying offer candidate. He’d very likely reject that one-year offer in search of a multi-year deal in free agency. Montgomery isn’t an ace, but the market rewarded both Taillon (four years, $68MM) and Walker (four years, $72MM) with four-year contracts last winter. Neither had a QO attached to him, but Montgomery, who’ll turn 31 in December, has a better recent track record than both pitchers as well.

Of course, if the Cardinals remain out of the postseason hunt in late July, Montgomery will be a sought-after trade candidate. A trade to another club would render him ineligible to receive a QO. Even if the Cardinals hang onto him and make him a QO, he’ll still reach free agency in search of a comparable or even larger deal than the ones signed by Taillon, Walker and Bassitt. As with Stroman, it’s worth noting that Bassitt was older in free agency than Montgomery will be (by a margin of three years in Montgomery’s case).

Honorable Mentions (listed alphabetically): Harrison Bader, Cody Bellinger, Jeimer Candelario, Sonny Gray, Teoscar Hernandez, Shota Imanaga, Joc Pederson, Eduardo Rodriguez (opt-out), Max Scherzer (player option), Jorge Soler (player option)

NPB Players To Watch: June

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It’s time for an update on NPB players who may be making their way to MLB in the near future. Here are the eight players that we are keeping track of at MLBTR. More details about their play styles and background are in the first article.

Players likely available in the 2023 offseason (most rumored or have publicly announced desire to play in MLB)

1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Orix Buffaloes

In the May update, I wrote that Yamamoto had yet to have his signature outing of the 2023 season, and since then he’s posted three consecutive gems. Yamamoto tossed eight innings in all three starts, allowing just one run and holding hitters to .092, while fanning 29.8% of them.

The 24-year-old right-hander now has a 1.59 ERA on the season, striking out 28.3% of hitters while walking just 4.6% and holding hitters to .188 in 62 ⅓ innings. 

Yamamoto faces stiff competition from Sasaki for most strikeouts, but a third consecutive Pacific League Triple Crown (ERA, Wins, Ks) is definitely within reach.

2. Shota Imanaga, Yokohama DeNA Baystars

The 29-year-old left-hander is back to looking like the Yokohama Baystars ace after a rough May. In his last four starts, Imanaga has a 2.32 ERA, striking out 23.3% of hitters and walking 4.3%. 

On the season, Imanaga has a 2.78 ERA, 26.7 K%, 3.3 BB%, and keeping hitters to a .225 batting average in 55 innings. The lefty struggles with the long ball at times (giving up eight in May), but regularly pitches deep into games, only failing to throw seven innings twice.

Imanaga positioned himself for an MLB move in 2023 by signing with a new agency last December. Given his strong track record in both NPB and international competitions, multiple teams should be showing interest in Imanaga this offseason.

3. Kona Takahashi, Saitama Seibu Lions

After a blistering start to the season, Takahashi has hit somewhat of a rough patch, with a 3.46 ERA in his last four starts. The 26-year-old right-hander is still tied for the Pacific League lead in ERA among qualified pitchers with a 2.11 mark.

On the season, the Lions’ ace is striking out 21% of hitters and holding them to .215, while walking 7.3% in 81 total innings. 

According to Nikkan Gendai, an MLB scout said that Takahashi’s improvement has been a pleasant surprise. “He did not know how to pace himself before, so he’d be tired by around 80 pitches. Since last season, he’s balanced out his delivery and pace. With his frame at 6’2-6’3 and 231 lbs and the combination of an upper 90s fastball and splitter, barring any setbacks, multiple MLB teams should show interest in the offseason.”

4. Yuki Matsui, Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles

The 27-year-old left-handed closer is as reliable as ever, with a 0.77 ERA, 38.8 K%, and 14 saves in 24 appearances in 2023. 

An overseas free agent this offseason, Matsui has not clearly stated his intentions for a move to MLB this offseason outside of vague comments made earlier in his career. 

Interestingly, he has made some changes this season that may be signaling a potential move.

He has mostly relied on his four-seam, splitter, and slider in his career, but this season he has cut down his slider usage and heavily increased the usage of his splitter. Given that the ability to throw splitters is highly valued in MLB, this could very well be him showcasing MLB front offices that his stuff will translate to the big leagues. 

There is certainly a need across the league for left-handed relievers with strikeout ability, and Matsui may be an interesting option. 

5. Naoyuki Uwasawa, Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters

The 29-year-old right-hander has bounced back from a nightmarish start to the season and is back to looking like an ace for the Fighters. In his last four starts since the previous NPB update, Uwasawa has a 1.74 ERA in 31 innings, striking out 20.8% of hitters and holding them to a .158 batting average, while walking 6.7%. 

Stuff-wise, Uwasawa lags behind the other players on the list and profiles similar to former Fighters teammate and former Rangers starting pitcher Kohei Arihara. He faces an uphill battle to earn an MLB contract, but he seems intent on taking on the challenge anyway. Maintaining his current form and finishing the season below a 2.50 ERA would definitely improve his chances.

Younger stars to keep an eye on

1. Roki Sasaki, Chiba Lotte Marines

Sasaki has come down to earth a little bit after a 1.00 ERA in April and 1.64 ERA in May. In his last four starts, Sasaki has a 3.24 ERA and two losses. The ‘Monster of Reiwa’ still has a 1.89 ERA on the season, striking out hitters at an unfathomable 40.4% rate and holding them to .146 while walking just 5.6%.

While Sasaki has unquestionable stuff and strikeout ability, building up the stamina to handle a full season workload is the next step in his development. Marines manager Masato Yoshii said that he might skip Sasaki’s next start, saying that he looked tired. Sasaki usually throws on six days of rest this season. Unless he makes a surprise request to be posted, Sasaki has a couple of season to improve that area of his game. 

2. Munetaka Murakami, Tokyo Yakult Swallows

The reigning Triple Crown winner looks more like himself in June, slashing .291/.418/.455 in 67 plate appearances. On the season, Murakami has a .233/.317/.419 line with a .789 OPS and 11 homers, a disappointing follow-up to his historic 2022 season.

Murakami is striking out on a horrendous 32% of at-bats, and his NPB-worst 89 total strikeouts is 22 more than the next closest at 67 strikeouts. He still has a strong walk rate at 16.5%, but is simply not making good contact.

Murakami is especially struggling to hit velocity, hitting just .083 against fastballs thrown harder than 150 km/h (93.75 mph). and is also struggling to hit righties, hitting just .180. 

3. Kazuma Okamoto, Yomiuri Giants

A newcomer on this list, Okamoto has been one of the best hitters in NPB who is enjoying a career season. Some of you may remember him for his solo homer that extended Team Japan’s lead over Team USA in the WBC Final.

The 6’1, 220lb slugger is a career .275 hitter with 182 homers, hitting at least 30 homers in every season since becoming a full-time starter in 2018. Okamoto was the youngest player in NPB to post a .300, 30HR, 100 RBI season. He led the Central League in homers and RBIs in back-to-back seasons in 2020 and 2021, 

The soon-to-be 27-year-old corner infielder is hitting .322/.414/.597 with 17 homers, 42 RBIs and an OPS of 1.010 in 2o23. He would be in prime position for the Triple Crown in any other season if it wasn’t for Toshiro Miyazaki and his .372 batting average. 

In comparison to Murakami, Okamoto hits for less average and walks less. Okamoto has hit over .300 just once in his career, and has a 10.5% career BB% compared to Murakami’s 16.5%. Okamoto plays average defense at third base and has taken first base and left field reps this year. 

Okamoto has hinted at some interest in a potential MLB move, but there is nothing concrete yet. He isn’t set to be a free agent for four years, his age-31 season. The Giants are traditionally against the posting system, so it remains to be seen whether or not he will request a move before that.

Honorable Mentions

The following players have either expressed their desire to play in the big leagues, been rumored by Japanese media, or have drawn interest from MLB scouts but have factors (age, team stance on posting system) preventing a potential move. I’ve also added top performers who may be of interest.

Shosei Togo, right-handed starting pitcher, Yomiuri Giants; Keiji Takahashi, left-handed starting pitcher, Tokyo Yakult Swallows; Taisei Ohta, right-handed reliever, Yomiuri Giants; Hiroto Takahashi, right-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Kaima Taira, right-handed starting pitcher, Saitama Seibu Lions; Atsuki Yuasa, right-handed reliever, Hanshin Tigers; Shinnosuke Ogasawara, left-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Shunpeita Yamashita, Orix Buffaloes; Tatsuya Imai, Seibu Lions; Takahisa Hayakawa, Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles; Atsuki Taneichi, Chiba Lotte Marines

 

NPB Watch: May Edition

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It’s time for an update on NPB players who may be making their way to MLB in the near future. Here are the seven players that we are keeping track of at MLBTR. Learn more about their play styles and background in the previous article.

Let’s get started.

Players likely available in the 2023 offseason (most rumored or have publicly announced desire to play in MLB)

1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Orix Buffaloes

The two-time Pacific League MVP has had a “slow” start to the season by his standards. Yamamoto has been consistent and his numbers are as solid as ever, with a 2.35 ERA, 27.6 K%, 6.4 BB%, 2.15 FIP in 38 ⅓ innings, but he’s yet to have the signature performance of the season. 

For reference, the Buffaloes ace’s best month last season was June, with a 0.56 ERA in four starts, most notably tossing his first career no-hitter. 

Yamamoto was scratched from his planned start this past weekend due to illness but has not been limited by injury thus far, despite concerns. 

2. Shota Imanaga, Yokohama DeNA Baystars

In five starts, Imanaga has a 3.48 ERA, 28.4 K%, and 1.6 BB% in 31 innings. The Baystars ace was off to a hot start to the season, tossing 8 innings of shutout ball in his season debut and following it up with a 7-inning shutout performance where he struck out 12. He’s struggled in the following two starts, however, giving up four runs in five innings and five runs in four innings respectively, and allowing a total of four homers. 

In his most recent start this past weekend, Imanaga had a solid performance against the Tokyo Yakult Swallows, allowing three runs in seven innings. The three runs came from two home runs, however, so the long ball continues to be an issue for the left-hander in the early going. 

Imanaga officially earned his domestic free-agent rights on May 19, but remains focused on the season. “I never thought I’d be in this position to earn this [free agency], and I want to give back to everyone who has been a part of my journey,’ Imanaga said. 

3. Kona Takahashi, Saitama Seibu Lions

Takahashi has had an impressive start to the year. In his eight starts, the Lions ace has an NPB-best 1.47 ERA, holding hitters to a .182 average, striking out 22.9% of hitters and walking 13.6%, in 55 innings. The biggest factor in his improvement is increased average fastball velocity, which has gone up to 94 mph, compared to 91.56 mph last season. His splitter has been the perfect complement to his improved fastball, hitters are only .068 against it. 

Beyond his elite numbers, Takahashi’s strong mentality and his pride as the Lions’ ace have particularly stood out. After his most recent start where he tossed six innings of shutout ball, Takahashi said, “I wanted to be on the mound longer than the opposing pitcher. In order to continue improving, I will reflect on this start so that I can go even deeper into games.”

He outdueled Yamamoto in their April 22 matchup, holding the Buffaloes to two runs and five hits in a complete game. He almost outdueled Yamamoto again on May 6, exiting the game after six innings of one-run ball, but the bullpen was unable to keep the lead. 

Takahashi has certainly met the challenge from GM Watanabe and Manager Kazuo Matsui thus far

4. Yuki Matsui, Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles

Became the fastest pitcher in NPB to reach 200 career saves earlier in the season. The Golden Eagles closer has been dominant as ever and has not allowed an earned run in his 12 appearances. He has 6 saves on the season, and hitters are hitting just .095 against him. The lefty hasn’t gotten much work as other relievers so far, as the Eagles have the second-worst record in NPB and sit in last place in the Pacific League. 

Matsui officially earned his overseas Free Agent rights on April 27. “It’s still April, so there’s not much to think about,” Matsui said in a statement.

5. Naoyuki Uwasawa, Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters

After a nightmarish start to the season, Uwasawa has settled down and is finding his groove. In his last four starts, he’s completed at least 7 innings and has a 2.35 ERA in 30 ⅔ innings. The Fighters right-hander has a 3.72 ERA on the season, striking out 17.9% of hitters and walking 10.8% in 46 innings. 

In his most recent start, the 29-year-old right-hander tossed his first shutout since 2018 against the Saitama Seibu Lions, where he fanned 9 and allowed just 4 hits. 

Younger stars to keep an eye on

1. Roki Sasaki, Chiba Lotte Marines

The “Monster of Reiwa” is off to a dominant start, posting a 0.84 ERA, fanning 43.5% of hitters while walking just 4.3%. Hitters are only hitting .124 against him, and he has a FIP of 0.65. 

He’s been sidelined since his May 5 start where he exited in the 5th inning because of a blister on the middle finger of his throwing hand. He was initially scheduled to pitch on May 21 but was pushed back to May 28, after the starting rotation was reshuffled by a rain-out. 

2. Munetaka Murakami, Tokyo Yakult Swallows

The young Swallows slugger had a disastrous first month of the season. In 25 games, he hit  .157/.311/.265, 2 HR, 15.5 BB%, 37.9 K%, and 12 RBI in 103 plate appearances. Murakami-sama is beginning to look more like his Triple-Crown winning self in May, hitting .278/.381/.556, 4 HR, 14.3 BB%, 23.8 K%, and 10 RBI in 63 plate appearances (as of May 19). 

One of the major factors in Murakami’s early season slump is his struggle to hit right-handed pitching. Murakami is hitting a measly .169 against right-handed pitching, and striking out at a 37.7% rate. The slump is also affecting his already sub-par defense at third base where he has 8 errors, the most out of all position players in NPB. 

Honorable Mentions

The following players have either expressed their desire to play in the big leagues, been rumored by Japanese media, or have drawn interest from MLB scouts but have factors (age, team stance on posting system) preventing a potential move. I’ve also added top performers who may be of interest.

Kazuma Okamoto, Corner Infielder, Yomiuri Giants; Shosei Togo, right-handed starting pitcher, Yomiuri Giants; Keiji Takahashi, left-handed starting pitcher, Tokyo Yakult Swallows; Taisei Ohta, right-handed reliever, Yomiuri Giants; Hiroto Takahashi, right-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Kaima Taira, right-handed starting pitcher, Saitama Seibu Lions; Atsuki Yuasa, right-handed reliever, Hanshin Tigers; Shinnosuke Ogasawara, left-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Shunpeita Yamashita (NEW!), Orix Buffaloes; Tatsuya Imai (NEW!), Seibu Lions; Takahisa Hayakawa (NEW!), Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles; Atsuki Taneichi (NEW!), Chiba Lotte Marines

 

NPB To MLB: 7 Players To Watch

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A new wave of NPB players have chosen to pursue their big-league dreams in recent years. Just this past offseason, Kodai Senga signed a five-year, $75MM deal with the Mets, Masataka Yoshida signed a five-year, $90MM deal with the Red Sox, and Shintaro Fujinami signed a one-year, $3.25MM deal with the Athletics. One offseason prior, Seiya Suzuki signed a five-year, $85MM deal.

Making the move from NPB to MLB is a complicated process. A player needs to have nine seasons of experience on the first team (i.e. the NPB “major league” club, as opposed to their minor league team) before they can become an overseas free agent. At the earliest, a player drafted out of high school becomes a free agent at age 27 and a player drafted out of college becomes one at age 31. This is a long period of time and can take even longer if a player misses time due to injury. Players who want to make the move sooner instead opt to use the NPB-MLB posting system. The posting system grants all 30 MLB teams the right to negotiate with a player after posting, but the team is subject to paying a posting fee based on the amount of guaranteed money in the contract.

The two main difficulties with the posting system are that 1.) players need their team’s permission to be posted, and 2.) players need to wait several years before being classified as “professionals” rather than “amateurs” under Major League Baseball’s international free agency standards. In order to be considered a “professional” and thus be exempt from MLB’s hard-capped bonus pool system for international amateurs, a foreign-born player must be at least 25 years of age and have at least six years of experience in a professional league (NPB, in this case). Shohei Ohtani knew this and chose to pursue a jump to MLB at age 23 anyway, limiting himself to a signing bonus a little north of $2.3MM because his age made him an “amateur.” Had he waited two more years, Ohtani could have potentially commanded 100 times that sum as a “professional” under MLB’s classifications. It was a sizable bet on himself, but it looks like one that will pay off.

Some teams are traditionally open-minded about letting players pursue their MLB dreams, most notably the Nippon Ham Fighters, while other teams such as the Yomiuri Giants and the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks have traditionally not given permission to their players when they ask to be posted for MLB clubs.

This series will keep track of NPB players who may be making their way to the MLB in the near future.

Let’s get started with players who may be available in the 2023 offseason.

Players likely available in the 2023 offseason (most rumored or have publicly announced desire to play in MLB)

1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is a 24-year-old right-hander for the reigning Pacific League and Nippon Series champions Orix Buffaloes. He began his career as a starter but moved to the bullpen in 2018 and became one of the best relievers in NPB. He was moved back to the rotation in 2019 and established himself as an elite starter by leading the Pacific League with a 1.95 ERA.

Yamamoto has since become the undisputed ace of NPB. He’s won the Sawamura Award — the Japanese equivalent of the Cy Young Award — and the Pacific League MVP Award in back-to-back seasons. He posted an insane 1.39 ERA, 206 strikeouts, 28% strikeout rate, and 5.4 walk rate in 2021, and followed that up with a 1.68 ERA, 205 strikeouts, a 27.4 strikeout rate, and a 5.6 walk rate in 2022. Yamamoto also won the Gold Glove award in each of those seasons. MLBTR’s Steve Adams wrote more on Yamamoto back in Februrary. Some scouts believe that Yamamoto is ahead of Senga.

The Pacific League MVP relies on a deep six-pitch repertoire and elite control to pile up strikeouts. Yamamoto primarily leans on his mid-90s fastball, splitter, and curveball, but he occasionally mixes in a cutter, two-seamer, and slider. The right-hander is known for his unique training style, with a focus on flexibility and mobility as well as using javelin-like and hammer-like tools. He also has a personal chef/nutritionist to manage his diet. While he has not had a major injury so far in his career, the only concerns with the Buffaloes ace are his slight frame (5’10″, 175 pounds) and adjusting to the grueling MLB schedule. Although he has not thrown on a four-day rest schedule, he has showcased his durability by throwing over 190 innings in each of the past two seasons.

As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes wrote in his recent 2023 FA class power rankings, Yamamoto’s contract could exceed Masahiro Tanaka’s contract with the Yankees in 2014. Tim wrote: “Ten years after the Tanaka deal, I feel Yamamoto is indeed capable of reaching $200MM before accounting for a posting fee.”

Yamamoto is off to another fantastic start this season. In the two games he’s started so far, he has a 0.75 ERA and 15 strikeouts in 12 innings of work. 

2. Yuki Matsui

Yuki Matsui is a 27-year-old left-handed reliever for the Tohoku Rakuten Eagles. He has a career 2.46 ERA, 31.9% strikeout rate, 201 saves, and 68 holds in 447 appearances. Matsui has a four-pitch arsenal featuring a four-seam fastball that goes up to 96mph but averages between 92-94, a dominant splitter and slider, and a lesser-used curveball. 

Matsui is on track to become a true international free agent this offseason, so he won’t need to utilize the posting system to gauge interest from MLB clubs. Japanese media is already speculating that he may sign with an MLB team. Matsui has said he is focused on the upcoming season but is open to the move. Sports Hochi reported that Matsui and the Eagles have discussed future MLB plans during contract negotiations over the years.  

Matsui first hit the national spotlight as a high school player at the 2012 Summer Koshien Tournament, the Japanese equivalent of March Madness, where he set the tournament record for most strikeouts in a single game with 22, and the longest consecutive strikeouts with 10. He finished that tournament with the most strikeouts in a single tournament by a lefty with 68.

Matsui came into the league as a starter but was moved to the bullpen in 2015 and since then has consistently been one of the best closers in the NPB. Out of the seven seasons he was the primary closer, Matsui recorded over 30 saves in five of them. His only “down” year came in 2018 — he still posted a 3.34 that season — but he bounced back with a career-high 68 appearances and 38 saves in 2019.  He was moved to a starting role in 2020, before ultimately moving back to the bullpen at the end of the season where he has remained until now. Matsui struggled adjusting to the WBC ball, which is closer to the MLB ball, so that may be a concern moving forward. 

Despite his difficulties at the WBC, Matsui had a terrific start to the season. He’s thrown five shutout innings, recorded four saves and fanned eight of his 18 opponents (44.4%). Dating back to 2021, Matsui has a 1.26 ERA in 99 2/3 innings of relief work.

3. Shota Imanaga

Shota Imanaga is a 29-year-old left-handed starting pitcher for the Yokohama DeNa Baystars. Fans might recognize Imanaga’s name after his start for Team Japan in the World Baseball Classic final against Team USA. The left-hander has a 3.24 ERA, 24.3 strikeout rate, 7.3 walk rate and 854 2/3 innings in 136 career starts. He had a career year last season, posting a 2.26 ERA, 23.6 strikeout rate and 5.2 walk rate in 143 2/3 innings. He also recorded his first no-hitter in June. 

The Baystars ace primarily throws four pitches, including a 91-94 mph fastball, a changeup that is close to a split-change, a cutter, and a curveball, while occasionally mixing in a slider. While he does not have an overpowering fastball, he has elite command and uses his changeup to get strikeouts. He had shoulder surgery in 2020 but has made a full recovery, and shoulder trouble hasn’t been a recurring issue for him.

Imanaga has expressed his desire to pitch in the big leagues since 2021 but won’t be an overseas free agent until the 2025 season. Sponichi reported in December that Imanaga planned to sign with the U.S.-based agency Octagon to help talks toward a posting agreement. The Baystars have never posted a player before, so it is unclear if they are open to posting Imanaga. However, Imanaga is set to become a domestic free agent within NPB this offseason, so if the Baystars do not allow Imanaga to go to the big leagues, he could potentially move to another NPB team.

Imanaga is yet to pitch for the first team this season as the Baystars manage his workload after pitching for Team Japan. He’s completed his minor league starts with no complications and is set to make his regular-season debut with the first team soon. 

4. Kona Takahashi

Kona Takahashi is a 26-year-old right-handed starter for the Saitama Seibu Lions who had his career-best season last year. In his 26 starts, Takahashi recorded a 2.20 ERA and struck out 18.2% of hitters faced in 175 2/3 innings. He was wilder earlier in his career, walking more than 12% of his opponents, but has improved his command more recently. Takahashi has a career 3.55 ERA, 17.4% strikeout rate, and 9% walk rate in 133 starts. He primarily relies on four pitches: a fastball that sits at around 93-95mph, a splitter, a slider, and a cutter, while occasionally throwing a curveball. 

Takahashi called MLB “the world’s greatest peak” and said he was inspired by former teammate and now Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Yusei Kikuchi. “Yusei-san changed my baseball career. I want to give back to him by performing at the highest level and even surpassing him,” Takahashi said. He attended Game 4 of the 2022 World Series in Philadelphia and said “The atmosphere was amazing and I thought that I’d love to pitch here [in MLB].”

Despite Takahashi’s wishes, the Lions may not post him this offseason. Lions GM Hisanobu Watanabe said that there are no plans as of right now to post Takahashi. “We’ve just listened to his [Takahashi’s] wishes at this point. We’ve discussed things of that nature with him before, but it’s not a story of when we are going to post him,” Watanabe said. The right-hander wants to be posted in the near future since the earliest he can earn his overseas free-agent rights is 2026. The good news for Takahashi is that his manager is former New York Met Kazuo Matsui, who is open-minded about the possible move. “If he reaches another level as an ace, he might get closer to that goal,” Matsui said. 

Takahashi is doing his best to reach that next level, with a 0.39 ERA, 27.4% strikeout rate and 23 innings pitched in his three starts. He has not given up a run in 18 consecutive innings.

5. Naoyuki Uwasawa 

Naoyuki Uwasawa is a 29-year-old right-handed starter for the Nippon Ham Fighters who has a 3.29 ERA, 19.9% strikeout rate, and 8% walk rate in 148 career starts. The right-hander throws a variety of pitches, including a low-90s fastball, cutter, slider, splitter, knuckle curve, changeup, and a two-seam fastball (usage in that order). His four-seam fastball was hit hard last season, with opponents batting .272 against it. 

Uwasawa announced his desire to pitch in the majors at his contract negotiations last December and requested to be posted in the 2023 offseason. He said that he was inspired when he participated in the 2018 MLB Japan All-Star Series. “I’ve always wondered what it’s like to play in a league with players coming from around the globe, and it’s the type of experience I can’t miss if I have the chance to. I only have a limited amount of time to take on the challenge, so if I have the opportunity I would take it,” Uwasawa said. Uwasawa began working with Driveline last offseason to help prepare his transition to the big leagues, looking to optimize his pitching mechanics and improve the quality of his slider. 

Uwasawa has had a poor start to the season, with a 6.46 ERA and 16.9% walk rate through 15 1/3 innings in his three starts.

Younger stars to keep an eye on

The following players are already some of the biggest stars in the NPB, but are likely unavailable until the 2025-26 offseason due to their age.

1. Munetaka Murakami

Munetaka Murakami, nicknamed Mura-Kamisama (Mura-God), is a 23-year-old corner infielder for the Tokyo Yakult Swallows. He burst onto the scene in 2019, with 36 home runs and 96 RBIs, winning the Central League Rookie of the Year Award in the process. He was the back-to-back Central League MVP in 2021 and 2022. Murakami has a career slash line of .281/.405/.583, hitting 160 homers and driving in 430 runs, along with a .988 OPS and 166 wRC+. Murakami’s 2022 season was nothing short of historic. He batted .318/.458/.710 with 56 home runs and 134 RBIs, along with a jaw-dropping 1.168 OPS, 221 wRC+ and 10.3 WAR. He became the youngest-ever Triple Crown winner in NPB and set the single season record for home runs hit by a Japanese player. 

Murakami’s leap in 2022 can likely be attributed to overcoming hard-thrown fastballs. Hitting high velocities was a weakness early in his career, with batting averages of .088 in 2019, .167 in 2020, and .229 in 2021 against fastballs thrown over 150 km/h (93.75 mph). In 2022, Murakami hit .327 against those pitches. Consistent growth in this area will be essential to Murakami’s success in MLB, where the average velocity is higher than the NPB. Murakami is not necessarily known for his defense at third base. In 2022, he recorded 15 errors, the second-highest in all of NPB and the most among third basemen. If he cannot improve his defense as he did with his contact against higher velocity, he most likely projects to be a first baseman in MLB.

Murakami signed a three-year deal this past offseason that came with a guarantee that he will be posted in the 2025-26 offseason. By 2025, Murakami will be 25 years old and shed his “amateur” status under MLB rules, thus exempting him from the bonus pool system. There is a clause that will allow him to get posted sooner if the age-25 rule is lowered.  

Murakami has had a slow start to the season, hitting just .189/.328/.373 with two homers and a 33.3% strikeout rate in a small sample of 66 plate appearances. The good news is that he is walking in 18.2% of plate appearances, and hitting .375 with runners in scoring position.

2. Roki Sasaki

Roki Sasaki is a 21-year-old right-handed starter for the Chiba Lotte Marines, known as “The Monster of Reiwa”, who is entering his fourth season in NPB. Sasaki has been highly scouted since his high school days, throwing 100mph fastballs with ease. He was drafted in 2019 by the Marines, who took a patient approach to his development. The 6’3″ right-hander clearly had an outstanding arsenal, but teams were concerned about his thin frame, in-game stamina, and the repeatability of his mechanics. He did not pitch in 2020 and only started in 11 games and pitched 63 1/3 innings in 2021.

The Marines’ patience paid off, with Sasaki quickly becoming one of the most dominant starters in NPB. In his first full year in the Marines’ rotation, the phenom recorded a 2.20 ERA and 1.70 FIP, striking out 35.3% of hitters while walking just 4.7% in 129 1/3 innings. Sasaki became the 16th pitcher in the history of NPB to pitch a perfect game last April, and followed up the performance by throwing eight more perfect innings in his next outing, before getting pulled with 102 pitches. In the 17 perfect innings, Sasaki struck out 33 of the 51 batters faced. Sasaki has a three-pitch mix, a fastball that averages between 99-101mph and tops out at 104mph, a devastating splitter, and a slider. 

As of right now, there is no clear timetable for Sasaki’s jump to Major League Baseball. Sasaki will not hit the professional experience threshold and does not turn 25 years old until 2026, so unless he takes the Ohtani route of posting before age 25, the earliest that Sasaki will make his MLB debut is in 2027. Sasaki said in March that “Before thinking about the timing of moving to the majors, playing in Japan comes first, and I think that things will become more clear after that.”

Sasaki has picked up right where he left off last season and has yet to allow a run in his two starts. Last week, he outdueled Yamamoto and shut down the Buffaloes, only allowing one hit and striking out 11 in seven innings.

Honorable Mentions

The following players have either expressed their desire to play in the big leagues, been rumored by Japanese media, or have drawn interest from MLB scouts but have factors (age, team stance on posting system) preventing a potential move:

Kazuma Okamoto, Corner Infielder, Yomiuri Giants; Shosei Togo, right-handed starting pitcher, Yomiuri Giants; Keiji Takahashi, left-handed starting pitcher, Tokyo Yakult Swallows; Taisei Ohta, right-handed reliever, Yomiuri Giants; Hiroto Takahashi, right-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Kaima Taira, right-handed starting pitcher, Saitama Seibu Lions; Atsuki Yuasa, right-handed reliever, Hanshin Tigers; Shinnosuke Ogasawara, left-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons

2023-24 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

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Welcome to the year’s first edition of the 2023-24 MLB free agent power rankings!  With this series we will attempt to rank players who are on track for free agency after the 2023 season, by measure of their estimated earning power.

MLBTR will take periodic looks at the top of the class from now through the remainder of the season.  Season performance will start to influence these rankings, but 11 or 12 games into the season, it’s not much of a factor in the April edition.  By the end of the season, 2023 results will matter quite a bit.  A strong platform year can elevate any player’s status in free agency, just as a poor walk year can tank their stock.

For the full list of 2023-24 MLB free agents, click here.

Our power rankings are compiled collaboratively by myself and MLBTR writers Anthony Franco, Steve Adams, and Darragh McDonald.  Players with opt-out clauses and player options are included, even if they’ve previously given indications they may forgo the opportunity to return to the market.

The 2023-24 MLB free agent class is an odd one.  It’s headed up by Shohei Ohtani, the Angels’ incredible two-way superstar, but seems to fall short of last winter’s class that was led by Aaron Judge and four star shortstops.

As can often happen, the 2023-24 class has had some of its thunder stolen by extensions.  Notably, Manny Machado and Rafael Devers inked extensions in excess of $300MM.  Yu Darvish and Miles Mikolas came off the market this year as well.  Other players who would have been free agents after ’23 had they not signed extensions include Matt Olson, Tyler Glasnow, Luis Castillo, Ozzie Albies, Yoan Moncada, Ryan McMahon, and Kyle Freeland.  And just a few hours prior to the publishing of this list, the Cubs agreed to an odd three-year deal to retain Ian Happ, who had been ranked eighth.  Additional players from the list below may also come off the board with extensions before free agency opens in November.

Let’s get to it!

1.  Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH, Angels:  Ohtani signed with the Angels in December 2017, generating significant hype given his ability to serve as both a starting pitcher and regular designated hitter.  He’d done so for five years as a member of NPB’s Nippon Ham Fighters.  No one knew how this experiment would go, as even Babe Ruth quickly phased out pitching after he started setting home run records in 1919.

Scouts were skeptical, but Ohtani posted a huge 149 wRC+ in 367 plate appearances as a rookie, while also pitching to a 3.31 ERA in ten starts.  The performance netted him the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2018.  But aside from dealing with blisters that year, Ohtani came down with an elbow sprain in June.  He got a platelet-rich plasma injection, stopped pitching for the season, and continued hitting.  He returned to the mound for a brief outing in September that year, and then underwent Tommy John surgery after the season ended.

Ohtani was still able to hit in 2019, returning in May of that year and posting a 120 wRC+ on the season.  That campaign ended early with surgery to address a bipartite patella in his left knee.  The pandemic delayed the start of the 2020 season, resulting in a gap of nearly two years between Major League pitching appearances for Ohtani.

Based on where he went in my fantasy baseball drafts in March 2021, expectations were relatively low for Ohtani entering that season.  Ohtani shattered those expectations, winning the AL MVP award in ’21 and finishing second in ’22.  He posted a 146 wRC+ with 80 home runs in 1,305 plate appearances during that time.  Ohtani also made 51 starts across 296 1/3 innings, posting a 2.70 ERA and 31.4 K%.  His pitching performance netted a fourth place Cy Young finish in 2022.

Over the past two seasons, Ohtani accomplished what many thought simply could not be done in modern MLB.  Ohtani, who turns 29 in July, is simultaneously one of the best hitters and pitchers in MLB.  He was worth 17.5 WAR from 2021-22, edging out Aaron Judge for the best in the game.  Ohtani is a once-in-a-lifetime sensation at the peak of his abilities.

Ohtani is earning an arbitration-record $30MM this year, and he’s on track for free agency after the season.  Angels owner Arte Moreno was unwilling to part with Ohtani despite trade offers last summer, just as he was ultimately unwilling to sell his team this winter despite soliciting bids.  Moreno hopes to retain his two-way star, but told reporters, “Ohtani has to want to be here too.”  Moreno expressed willingness to go over the competitive balance tax threshold, but also admitted that the club has not had discussions with Ohtani.

The Angels have never had a winning season in Ohtani’s five years with the club, though that might change in 2023.  Asked about the extension possibility in February, agent Nez Balelo said, “I’ve always been open to it. But there’s several layers to this one, and Shohei’s earned the right to play through the year, explore free agency, and we’ll see where it shakes out.”

So, what actually drives Shohei Ohtani?  There’s evidence it’s not entirely money, since he chose to come to MLB at age 23.  His age limited him to a $2.3MM signing bonus, when waiting two more years could’ve resulted in over $100MM more.  Ohtani’s six other finalists in 2017 were the Mariners, Rangers, Cubs, Padres, Dodgers and Giants.  At the time, Balelo said, “While there has been much speculation about what would drive Shohei’s decision, what mattered to him most wasn’t market size, time zone or league but that he felt a true bond with the Angels.”

Still, many have noted that most of Ohtani’s finalists were on the West Coast.  And it’s certainly logical that after accomplishing so much as an individual, Ohtani will focus on joining a team he believes will be a perennial contender.  The Dodgers and Padres are oft-cited potential matches, and most expect the Mets to be heavily involved.  The Giants took two large swings at star players last winter, and the Yankees and Mariners shouldn’t be discounted.  I’m sure you could name a half-dozen at least semi-reasonable fits.  In terms of payroll commitments for 2024 and beyond, the Dodgers, Giants, and Mariners are much better-positioned than the Yankees, Padres, and Mets, though it’s difficult to picture Steve Cohen staying out of the fray.

The largest contract in MLB history remains Mookie Betts’ 12-year, $365MM extension in July 2020, though it included significant deferrals.  Ohtani’s teammate Mike Trout received $360MM in new money back in 2019.  So no one has even signed for $400MM yet, though the Padres reportedly offered Judge around $415MM and the Nationals offered Juan Soto $440MM.

No one doubts that Ohtani will become the first player to truly top the $400MM barrier, and common speculation is that he will reach $500MM.  Where will the bidding stop for a generational talent and marketing bonanza such as Ohtani?  I’m not willing to rule out a $600MM contract, though perhaps something in the $550MM range could represent a sweet spot.

The 2022-23 offseason included a trend toward extra-long contracts, with Machado, Trea Turner, and Xander Bogaerts all getting 11-year contracts paying through age 40.  The goal of those was to reduce the average annual value and accompanying CBT hit.  Going through age 40 would mean a 12-year contract for Ohtani, though I personally think a 14-year term has a chance of passing MLB’s scrutiny.  It’s been suggested that the Padres’ concept of paying Judge through age 44 wouldn’t have passed muster, but that’s not to say going through age 42 is off the table.

If Ohtani aims for maximum dollars and the $40MM standard only Judge has achieved on a long-term deal, I think 14 years and $560MM could be an end point.  There’s also an argument that since Ohtani is both an elite hitter and pitcher, he should land an average annual value in excess of $45MM or even $50MM.  Max Scherzer currently holds the record at $43,333,333.33 per year, though only Judge received $40MM for more than three years.

I could also be wildly wrong and Ohtani could fall well short of the $560MM guess.  Nor do I have any idea whether Ohtani will accept the largest deal proposed to him.  Buckle up for what could be the most fascinating and frenzied free agency in MLBTR’s 17-year history.  Our Ohtani page can be found here, which we’ll be beefing up with some additional quality content soon.

2.  Julio Urias, SP, Dodgers:  Urias may not generate the hype of Ohtani, but the lefty is a former prodigy in his own right and our clear #2 for earning power in this free agent class.  After being handled carefully as a minor leaguer, Urias made his Major League debut for the Dodgers at the age of 19, way back in 2016.  His pitch counts were kept low, and at the end of a successful season Urias made two playoff appearances for the Dodgers, including an NLCS start.

Unfortunately, Urias came down with a serious shoulder injury in June 2017, and anterior capsule surgery was required.  He went nearly 16 months between MLB appearances.  In 2019, Urias was again handled carefully, pitching out of the bullpen more often than the rotation.  That year, he was arrested on suspicion of domestic violence, according to the LAPD.  MLB ultimately issued a 20-game suspension.

Urias entered 2020 without restrictions, and wound up making ten starts in the pandemic-shortened season.  He was utilized creatively in the postseason that year, making two starts and four multi-inning relief appearances.  Urias memorably got the last seven outs in Game 6 of the 2020 World Series, freezing Willy Adames with a called strike for the last one and getting mobbed by his Dodgers teammates after winning it all.

Urias further turned a corner in 2021, topping 200 innings between the regular season and postseason – easily a career-high.  He won 20 games with a 2.96 ERA and finished seventh in the NL Cy Young voting.  He followed that up in 2022 with a third-place Cy Young finish and an NL-best 2.16 ERA.

Despite a 2.57 ERA from 2021-22 that ranked second among all qualified starters, Urias can’t quite be described as dominant.  His 25.2 K% during that time was still above-average, ranking 21st among starters.  His pinpoint control was even better, with a 5.5 BB% that ranked ninth.  Much of Urias’ success can be attributed to his ability to limit hard contact.  His BABIP was just .251 from 2021-22, third-lowest in MLB, and his Statcast hard-hit rate ranked second each year.  Urias is not particularly adept at getting groundballs, but fewer of the flyballs he allows leave the yard.

So Urias’ case as one of the best pitchers in baseball is based more on great control and weak contact than it is punching out batters.  His results are undeniable.  But the factor that sends his earning power through the roof is his age: he does not turn 27 until August.  Because players so rarely debut at the age of 19, it follows that a free agent ace entering his age-27 season is extremely uncommon.  We have seen it on the position player side, such as Bryce Harper and Manny Machado hitting free agency in advance of their age-26 campaigns.

Pitchers are seen as greater risks than position players, so Harper’s 13-year term probably isn’t happening with Urias.  On the other hand, last offseason’s trend for star free agents was all about reaching a specific total, with the years and average annual value being secondary.  Agent Scott Boras likely has a clear target to attempt to top: Stephen Strasburg’s $245MM, a contract he brokered in December 2019.  If getting there requires a term that would’ve previously been considered untenable, such as nine or ten years, that wouldn’t shock me.

It is worth noting that Strasburg’s contract has been a disaster due to injuries.  Urias’ shoulder surgery will be more than six years behind him when he hits free agency, but a clean bill of health will be crucial to any monster long-term deal.  There’s also the matter of Urias’ good-but-not-amazing strikeout rate in an age where some starters can whiff more than 30% of batters faced.  Urias doesn’t have that, and his fastball averages 93 miles per hour rather than 97.  So while I think Boras’ goal and expectation will be $250MM+, it remains to be seen whether Urias can secure the second-largest pitcher contract of all-time behind Gerrit Cole’s $324MM.

Where do the Dodgers stand on Urias?  The club has been perfectly willing to let star free agents leave, while also retaining other long-time Dodgers or occasionally plucking a top free agent from another team.  In other words, there’s no way to know their intentions with Urias based on their history.  I will say that I could see the potential risk being too high for the Dodgers, and it’s possible they focus their efforts on Ohtani or other top free agent pitchers.

3.  Aaron Nola, SP, Phillies:  Nola and Urias will make for an interesting comparison, if both reach the open market after the season.

Nola turns 30 in June, so he’s about three years older than Urias.  Nola was drafted seventh overall by the Phillies in 2014 out of Louisiana State, making his MLB debut the following year at the age of 22.  He was seen as more of a high floor than a high ceiling pitcher at the time.

Nola experienced an early-career hiccup in August of 2016, when he hit the IL for an elbow strain.  That injury ended Nola’s season after 20 starts.  Nola was able to recover from the strain without surgery, and has not gone on the IL for an arm injury since.  Furthermore, Nola has become the game’s preeminent workhorse, leading all pitchers in innings from 2018-22.

Nola is much more ace than innings guy, however, having turned a corner in 2018 with a third-place Cy Young finish.  He also finished seventh in 2020, and fourth in ’22.  Like Urias, Nola works around 93 miles per hour, but the Phillies’ righty has racked up strikeouts at an elite clip.  From 2020-22, Nola whiffed 30% of batters faced, ninth in MLB among qualified starters.  His control is even better than that of Urias, with a 4.9 BB% during that time that ranked fourth among starters.

Nola added his first playoff experience last year in the Phillies’ run to the World Series.  A pair of excellent starts helped the Phillies advance, though he faltered in the NLCS and World Series.

Nola’s groundball rate has slipped in recent years, and his Statcast marks haven’t been consistently excellent the way Urias’ have.  That means Nola’s home run rate and batting average on balls in play can fluctuate season-to-season.  That’s how he was able to post a 2.37 ERA in 2018 but a 4.63 mark in 2021 despite arguably demonstrating better skills in the latter season.

Back when Nola had three years of MLB service, he inked a four-year extension with the Phillies that included a club option on a fifth year, which the Phillies gladly exercised.  If he remains healthy and effective in 2023, a contract north of $200MM has to be in play if Nola reaches the open market.

Nola and the Phillies have shown mutual interest in a contract extension this year, with offers being exchanged in February.  Talks were tabled when an agreement could not be reached prior to the season, but both Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and agent Joe Longo spoke positively of rekindling discussions after the season.  That can be difficult when free agency is days rather than months or years away, but it has happened before and remains a possibility here.

4.  Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP, Orix Buffaloes: Back in February, Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote that there is “strong belief among MLB teams” that Yamamoto will be posted by the Buffaloes after the season.  As MLBTR’s Steve Adams wrote, “Yamamoto is already a four-time NPB All-Star and has taken home both the Pacific League MVP Award and the Sawamura Award (Japan’s equivalent to MLB’s Cy Young Award) in each of the past two seasons.”

Adams compiled stats and various scouting reports suggesting Yamamoto could profile as an ace or something close to it in MLB as well.  But the kicker is that Yamamoto doesn’t turn 25 until August, so he’s two years younger than even Urias.  Pitchers this good and this young can basically only come through international free agency, and Yamamoto will be right at the age that allows for the full bidding war that Ohtani passed on when he came over.

Masahiro Tanaka comes to mind as a someone who moved from NPB to MLB at the same age and at a time when there was open bidding on posted players.  Tanaka’s deal with the Yankees was finalized in January 2014.  That was a seven-year, $155MM contract plus a $20MM posting fee.  That contract notably included an opt-out clause after the fourth season.

The current posting agreement calls for 20% of the first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of the remainder.  Using a $200MM contract as an example, the posting fee would be $31.875MM.  The posting fee is not part of the competitive balance tax calculation, however, presenting a carrot to teams that carry payrolls high enough to be affected by the CBT.

Ten years after the Tanaka deal, I feel Yamamoto is indeed capable of reaching $200MM before accounting for a posting fee.  However, in this age where teams try to stretch out contracts as long as possible, given his youth Yamamoto might prefer either the flexibility to opt out, the total expiration of the contract while he’s still young enough to be a desirable free agent again, or both.  Though Ohtani will loom large over this offseason, Yamamoto getting posted would be a huge story in its own right.

5.  Matt Chapman, 3B, Blue Jays:  The conversation about Matt Chapman starts with his stellar defense at third base.  Since breaking in with the A’s in 2017, Chapman has snagged three Gold Glove awards, most recently in 2021.

Statcast Outs Above Average backs up Chapman’s defensive excellence, as he’s ranked in the top four at third base in 2017, ’18, and ’19 and first in ’21.  Pandemic-shortened season aside, the only interruption in Chapman’s run of top-shelf defense, at least according to the numbers, was in 2022.  He graded out as more of an average defender last year.  While Chapman’s reputation deservedly holds strong, a strong showing this year will only help his earning power in free agency.

From 2018-19 with the A’s, Chapman’s bat aligned with his glove to push him into 6-WAR superstar territory.  Chapman posted a 132 wRC+ during that time, mashing 60 home runs.  Chapman’s strikeout rate climbed to a dangerous level in the shortened 2020 season, and then he underwent surgery to repair a torn right hip labrum in September of that year.  Chapman had his worst year with the bat in 2021, and the A’s shipped him to Toronto in March 2022 as part of their post-lockout fire sale.

Chapman’s strikeout rate climbed and his batting average plummeted since 2020, though he’s remained an above-average hitter.  He posted a solid 117 wRC+ in 2022, with 90th percentile-range Statcast metrics suggesting room for more.  That has indeed been the case in the early going of 2023, though it’s only been 48 plate appearances at the time of this writing.

Chapman’s 30th birthday is approaching this month, so he’ll play next year at 31.  That could invite comparisons to the free agent contracts signed by Marcus Semien and George Springer, with seven and six-year terms respectively.

However, I keep harping on how the old free agency principles went out the window last winter, so Chapman and agent Scott Boras are hardly limited to a seven-year term.  It’s not difficult to picture a return to the 6-WAR level for Chapman this year and a contract expectation north of $200MM.

Asked about free agency in February, Chapman said all the right things, but there’s no known momentum toward a long-term deal with the Blue Jays.  With fellow third basemen Manny Machado and Rafael Devers staying put, Chapman has emerged as the top non-Ohtani free agent position player of the 2023-24 free agent class.

6.  Lucas Giolito, SP, White Sox: Giolito was drafted 16th overall by the Nationals in 2012 out of Harvard-Westlake High School.  He was a key piece on the trade that sent Adam Eaton to the Nats in December 2016.

Giolito struggled mightily in his first full season in the Majors in 2018, and then did a complete about-face in 2019 by making the All-Star team and finishing sixth in the AL Cy Young voting.  He finished seventh and 11th in the years that followed, posting a 3.47 ERA with a 30.7 K% from 2019-21.

Giolito’s performance fell off quite a bit in 2022.  His average fastball velocity dropped from 93.9 miles per hour to 92.6, and his strikeout and walk rates both went in the wrong direction.  While Giolito’s spin rates did go down quite a bit with the June 2021 sticky stuff crackdown, that’s overly simplistic as a complete explanation for his decline.  As John Foley of Pitcher List wrote, “Rather than it being one clear issue to blame, it seems Giolito dealt with a number of seemingly smaller things – perhaps the early season core injury, the COVID illness, the new bulk on his frame, or the changed ability to grip the ball, or some combination thereof – that resulted in subtle mechanical tweaks that decreased the quality of his stuff, reduced the deception in his delivery, and broke down how well his pitches tunneled together.”

It’s far too early to tell whether Giolito will right the ship in 2023.  And even if Giolito doesn’t come all the way back to his 2019-21 levels, he reinvented himself once before, and there are teams that have had more success coaxing the most out of starting pitchers than the White Sox.  For all the extensions the White Sox have worked out, a deal with Giolito doesn’t appear to be in the cards.  Giolito, still only 29 in July, figures to secure an opt-out if his 2023 performance disappoints.

7.  Teoscar Hernandez – RF, Mariners:  Hernandez was signed by the Astros for $20K out of the Dominican Republic in 2011.  The club shipped Hernandez and Nori Aoki to the Blue Jays for Francisco Liriano at the 2017 trade deadline.  Prior to that season, Hernandez was considered a 55-grade prospect by Baseball America.

Jose Bautista’s departure opened up a spot for Hernandez in 2018, and he became a starter at the outfield corners for the Jays.  After a couple years of slightly above-average offensive production, Hernandez turned a corner in 2020 with a 142 wRC+ and 16 homers in 207 plate appearances.  That power was no fluke, as Hernandez posted a 131 wRC+ from 2021-22 with 57 home runs, cutting his strikeout rate a bit as an added bonus.  He picked up Silver Slugger awards and MVP votes in both ’20 and ’21.

Overall as a hitter, Hernandez is known for big power, top of the chart Statcast metrics, a still-high strikeout rate, and a middling walk rate.  Though he has a strong arm, Hernandez’s right field defense typically grades as below-average.  Since 2020, the total package has resulted in about 4 WAR per 650 plate appearances.  Hernandez has not actually reached that plate appearance plateau, however, as he’s had IL stints for multiple oblique strains.  He’s set to turn 31 in October.

Seeking a controllable bullpen arm and perhaps some payroll flexibility, the Blue Jays traded Hernandez to the Mariners last November for setup man Erik Swanson as well as prospect Adam Macko.  The Mariners have given no signal an extension is in the works for Hernandez, and they beat him in an arbitration hearing in February.  He may wind up a one-year rental for Seattle.

As a free agent, Hernandez gives off some Nick Castellanos vibes, though we think he can top that player’s $100MM deal.  Hernandez lost a key competitor in the market with Ian Happ signing a three-year extension with the Cubs.

8.  Jordan Montgomery, SP – Cardinals: Montgomery, a 30-year-old lefty, was drafted by the Yankees in the fourth round out of the University of South Carolina back in 2014.  He was able to land the team’s fifth starter job out of camp as a rookie in 2017, though he was not needed until April 12th.

Montgomery had a strong year for the 2017 Yankees despite getting pushed out of the rotation occasionally due to the team’s trades, putting up a 3.88 ERA in 29 starts and finishing sixth in the AL Rookie of the Year voting.

Montgomery opened 2018 as the Yankees’ fifth starter once again, but unfortunately went down for Tommy John surgery in June.  His recovery resulted in a 16.5 month gap between MLB appearances, as the lefty got in a couple of brief September appearances in ’19.  Pandemic year aside, Montgomery returned to his rookie-year level of performance with a solid 2021 season for New York.

At the trade deadline last year, the Yankees made the surprising choice to ship Montgomery to the Cardinals for center fielder Harrison Bader, who was on the IL at the time.  The jury is still out on that trade, but thus far in 13 starts for the Cardinals running into this year, Montgomery has posted a 2.97 ERA.  He also contributed a scoreless appearance for the Cards in last year’s Wild Card game.

Montgomery has bumped up his velocity post Tommy John, now working above 93 miles per hour on average.  Last year he posted a 21.8 K% that improved when he joined the Cardinals, as well as a fine 5% walk rate that fits with his strong control.  It’ll be interesting to see if Montgomery can continue to push his strikeout rate forward, which would only help his earning power.

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco and Steve Adams pushed for Montgomery to get a spot on this list, suggesting a strong season could vault him past the new Jameson Taillon–Taijuan Walker $70MM tier, perhaps to the $100MM range.  He’s got upside to climb as high as sixth in our power rankings this year.

9.  Josh Hader, RP – Padres:  Hader was a 19th round draft pick by the Orioles out of Maryland’s Old Mill High School back in 2012.  At the 2013 trade deadline, the Orioles sent Hader, L.J. Hoes, and a competitive balance round A pick to the Astros for Bud Norris.  Two years later, however, the Astros sent Hader, Adrian Houser, Brett Phillips, and Domingo Santana to the Brewers for Mike Fiers, Carlos Gomez, and cash.  So that makes two players on this list who were traded away as Astros prospects by Jeff Luhnow.

Hader made his MLB debut for the Brewers in 2017 as a reliever.  At the time, he was still thought to be a starter long-term.  However, as sometimes happens, Hader was so good in the bullpen that the Brewers were never willing or able to move him back into a starting role.  He made his first All-Star team with a dominant 2018, posting an obscene 46.7 K% and finishing seventh in the Cy Young voting.  Hader was used as a multi-inning weapon that year, getting more than three outs 33 times and averaging 1.47 innings per appearance.

The following year, Hader replicated his huge strikeout rate and made another All-Star team.  It was also the last time he averaged more than an inning per appearance.  He racked up 37 saves and inched closer to being used in a traditional stopper role.  Hader made All-Star teams again in ’21 and ’22.

At last year’s trade deadline, three games up in the NL Central, the Brewers attempted to thread the needle by trading Hader to the Padres.  In theory, they could shed some payroll in ’22 and ’23, replace Hader in the bullpen with Taylor Rogers, and pick up prospects Esteury Ruiz and Robert Gasser along the way.  While that plan did not pan out for Milwaukee, Hader also had a rough entry to his Padres career.  He’d already torched his ERA in two appearances prior to the trade, and then shortly after joining the Padres allowed 12 earned runs in three innings.

Hader then righted the ship for the Padres, closing out the regular season by allowing one run in 11 1/3 innings.  He then dropped an additional 5 1/3 scoreless innings in a dominant postseason.  The Padres had no problem paying Hader $14.1MM for his final arbitration year in ’23.

Hader is a lanky 29-year-old lefty who has generally worked in the 95-97 mile per hour range.  He remains capable of striking out more than 40% of batters faced, allowing 10-11% to reach base via the free pass.  The walks can be less than ideal, and Hader has also been burned by the longball at times.  He’s a flyball pitcher, made worse by a 14% career home run per flyball rate.  In a 60-inning season it would be normal for Hader to allow seven or eight home runs, and in 2019 he gave up 15 bombs.

Despite those flaws, Hader can still be one of baseball’s most dominant relievers, hugely valuable for teams with postseason expectations.  Edwin Diaz’s record five-year, $102MM deal could be in play for Hader with a big year, or perhaps he could land in the $80-90MM range occupied by Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman in the 2016-17 offseason.

10.  Blake Snell, SP – Padres: Snell, 31 in December, was drafted 52nd overall by the Rays in 2011 out of Shorewood High School in Washington.  He was a supplemental draft pick the Rays received for the loss of free agent Brad Hawpe.

Prior to his 2016 Major League debut, Snell ascended to become a consensus top-15 prospect in the game.  The lefty didn’t really settle into the Rays’ rotation until the end of 2017.  2018 was a special year for Snell, as he won the AL Cy Young award, also making the All-Star team and grabbing MVP votes.  His 1.89 ERA topped the American League, and he won 21 games while pitching a career-high 180 2/3 innings.  That was the year Snell’s strikeout rate shot upward past 30%, a level he’s maintained since.  Snell’s dominant 2018 performance led to a five-year, $50MM contract extension prior to 2019.

In July of 2019, Snell underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery, knocking him out for nearly two months.  He made it through the shortened 2020 season unscathed, famously getting pulled by manager Kevin Cash in Game 6 of the World Series after 73 pitches and 5 1/3 innings, having allowed one run on two hits.

Two months later, the Rays moved on from Snell, trading him to the Padres for four players.  He tallied 256 2/3 innings from 2021-22, including time missed for gastroenteritis and multiple groin strains.

Snell received a cortisone shot for his elbow in February 2020, but technically he hasn’t been on the IL for an arm injury since his surgery nearly four years ago.  The knock on Snell is less health and more that he’s never been one to go deep into games.  He averaged over 5.8 innings per start in his Cy Young season, but has otherwise come in south of 5.4.  And from 2019-21, he managed only 4.7 innings per start.  Part of the issue is Snell’s walk rate, which sits north of 10% for his career and can climb above 12%.  In 2022, the average starting pitcher worked 5.2 innings per start, walking 7.5% of batters.

As a lefty working at 95-96 miles per hour, Snell still has the ability to dominate, as evidenced by his high strikeout rates.  And the game has been trending toward shorter starts, with teams increasingly reluctant to let their starter face a lineup a third time.  Snell’s 5.33 innings per start in 2022 ranked 81st in MLB among those with at least 15 starts.  While that’s not impressive, it also wasn’t far off from Charlie Morton (5.55), Jameson Taillon (5.53), Nathan Eovaldi (5.46), Taijuan Walker (5.42), Lucas Giolito and Luis Severino (5.37).  It’s also ahead of several players who got $12MM+ per year in free agency, like Jose Quintana, Ross Stripling, and Mike Clevinger.

Perhaps Snell’s Cy Young season created unreasonable expectations, but he remains a very good pitcher with ample postseason experience.  With a typical season, he should be able to top Taijuan Walker’s four-year, $72MM deal.

Honorable Mentions

Other players considered for this list, or who have a chance to play their way onto it, include Max Scherzer, Luis Severino, Tyler Mahle, Sean Manaea, Harrison Bader, Michael Conforto, Amed Rosario, and Jung Hoo Lee.  Of course, one of the best parts of baseball is surprising performances, and we’ll revisit the 2023-24 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings every month.

NPB’s Orix Buffaloes Could Post Ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto Following 2023 Season

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There’s a “strong belief among MLB teams” that the Orix Buffaloes of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball will post ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto following the 2023 season, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. If that indeed comes to pass, he’d be the second high-profile player set to be posted from the top professional leagues in Asia next offseason; the Kiwoom Heroes of the Korea Baseball Organization are also expected to post reigning KBO MVP Jung Hoo Lee, as covered here last month.

Yamamoto will command more attention between the two. The 24-year-old Yamamoto is already a four-time NPB All-Star and has taken home both the Pacific League MVP Award and the Sawamura Award (Japan’s equivalent to MLB’s Cy Young Award) in each of the past two seasons. It’s not hard to see why.

Dating back to Opening Day 2021, Yamamoto has compiled a comical 1.54 ERA while striking out 27.7% of his opponents against a tiny 5.5% walk rate. He’s averaged better than 7 1/3 innings per start along the way, hurling 10 complete games and six shutouts, and only yielded an average of 0.30 home runs per nine innings pitched. One of those shutouts was a no-hitter this past June. In just shy of 800 career innings in NPB, Yamamoto possesses a 1.84 ERA that already looks inhuman on the surface and becomes all the more impressive when you factor in his age. He debuted as an 18-year-old back in 2017, and that season’s 2.35 ERA is the highest mark of his career.

Scouts to whom Sherman spoke raved about Yamamoto’s potential in the big leagues, touting a heater that sits mid-90s and reaches the upper-90s, a “plus-plus” (i.e. 70-grade) splitter, a “world class” curveball, a quick delivery to the plate and the athleticism to field his position well. One evaluator speaking to Sherman tabbed him a “full [scouting] grade” (on the 20-80 scale) ahead of right-hander Kodai Senga, who signed a five-year, $75MM deal with the Mets this offseason.

Brandon Tew of Sports Info Solutions took a deep dive into Yamamoto’s no-hitter back in June, profiling the right-hander’s “electric” arsenal, highlighting some of his pitch grips and release points while providing some general scouting insight into the tantalizing young righty. The Athletic’s Keith Law wrote back in December that Yamamoto “might be a No. 1 starter in MLB and doesn’t have any of the reliever concerns that Senga carries,” suggesting that he could more than double Senga’s guarantee when he’s eventually posted.

That all depends on health and performance in 2023, of course. Yamamoto has been healthy and dominant to this point in his career, but all players (pitchers, in particular) are one major injury away from changing their outlook. Any scouting report on Yamamoto will point out that his slight frame — he’s listed at 5’10” and 170 pounds — is of at least come concern to big league scouts. There’s simply very little track record for pitchers of this size both holding up physically with a starter’s workload and performing at an elite level. That’s not to say Yamamoto can’t be an exception, of course; the general consensus seems to be that he has a very good chance of doing just that.

Yamamoto is expected suit up for Team Japan in next month’s World Baseball Classic, just as Lee is likely to be on South Korea’s team. MLB fans looking ahead to next offseason might want to keep an extra-close eye on the pair and on the WBC in general, as the tournament provides North American fans some rare access to not only see foreign talents of this caliber, but also to see them against high-end opposition.

If Yamamoto is indeed posted for MLB teams, he’ll be subject to the NPB-MLB posting system, which grants all 30 teams equal rights to negotiate with the player but subjects the signing team to what, in the case of Yamamoto, could be a particularly steep posting fee. The MLB club that eventually signs Yamamoto would need to pay the Buffaloes a fee that is equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars committed thereafter.

On, say, a $150MM contract — a purely speculative number for the sake of this example, and one that could ultimately prove low — that’d come out to a $24.375MM posting fee that needs to be paid out to the Buffaloes in addition to the money guaranteed to Yamamoto. Any additional earnings that come via contractual mechanisms like performance incentives, club options, etc. would also be subject to that 15% once the money becomes guaranteed.

If the Buffaloes opt not to post Yamamoto next winter, they could do so again following the 2024 season as well. NPB players aren’t eligible for unrestricted free agency until they’ve compiled nine years of service time. Yamamoto, despite his youth, is entering his seventh season in NPB.

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