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Zack Wheeler

Phillies Prioritizing Extension With Zack Wheeler

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The Phillies’ “No. 1 priority” for the remainder of the offseason “is signing ace Zack Wheeler to a contract extension,” MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki writes.  Wheeler is set to be a free agent next winter, as he is entering the final season of his five-year, $118MM contract.

Four seasons in, that deal has been an unqualified success from the Phillies’ perspective.  Wheeler has the most fWAR (19.3) of any starter in baseball since the start of the 2020 season, as he has posted a 3.06 ERA, 26.7% strikeout rate, 5.3% walk rate, and 47% grounder rate over 629 1/3 regular-season innings in a Philadelphia uniform.  The right-hander has been even more dominant during the postseason, delivering a 2.42 ERA over 63 1/3 playoff innings to help carry the Phillies to an NL pennant and an NLCS appearance over the last two seasons.

There aren’t many red flags on Wheeler as he enters his age-34 season, even if his 3.61 ERA in 2023 was the highest of his Philadelphia tenure.  He generated fewer grounders and allowed a bit more hard contact than usual, and Wheeler relied more heavily on his signature four-seamer than ever before — he reduced his cutter usage since the secondary pitch wasn’t as effective as it had been in 2021-22.

Health-wise, Wheeler underwent a Tommy John surgery in 2015 and battled some other arm problems during his time with the Mets in 2016-17.  He has been quite durable ever since, and a month-long bout of forearm tendinitis late in the 2022 season ended up being relatively minor, as Wheeler returned in strong form for the Phillies’ playoff run.

With his track record of success and durability, Wheeler figures to be one of the most sought-after members of the 2024-25 free agent class, even if he’ll be turning 35 in May 2025.  As such, Wheeler and his representatives at Wasserman might seek out a bit of a premium from the Phillies in order to keep the righty from testing the market.  A four-year extension isn’t an unreasonable ask given Wheeler’s relatively clean recent health history, and topping the $23.6MM average annual value on his current contract seems like a given.

The Phillies have obviously shown a willingness to spend big in acquiring and retaining star players over the last few seasons, even if this hasn’t manifested itself in many actual extensions.  Jose Alvarado and Seranthony Dominguez are the only Phillies to sign extensions during Dave Dombrowski’s three-plus years as president of baseball operations, and those relatively modest deals (two years and $18.55MM in new money for Alvarado, two years and $7.25MM for Dominguez) aren’t in the stratosphere of what it’ll take to lock up Wheeler.  While the Phillies kept Aaron Nola and J.T. Realmuto in the fold on new contracts, the Phils let both players reach the open market first before eventually re-signing the duo.

It was just over a month ago that Nola was re-signed to a seven-year, $172MM deal, cementing the right-hander as a staple of the Phils’ rotation through the rest of the decade.  Nola joins Bryce Harper and Trea Turner as Philadelphia players who are already signed through at least the 2030 season, plus Realmuto and Kyle Schwarber are on the books through 2025, and Taijuan Walker and Nick Castellanos are signed through 2026.  An extension for Wheeler would put yet another hefty contract on the team’s ledger, though spending big on star talent has long been Dombrowski’s M.O.  The Phillies have exceeded the luxury tax in each of the last two seasons and are projected to be well over at least the first tax threshold in 2024, so owner John Middleton isn’t showing any signs of cutting back given how close the Phillies have come to a championship.

That said, it seems like a lot of the heavy lifting is over on the Phillies’ 2023-24 offseason work, now that Nola has been re-signed and Yoshinobu Yamamoto is officially off the market.  Signing Yamamoto would have arguably been a luxury for the team, yet the team viewed him as a special player worthy of a strong push, and Dombrowski told Zolecki and other reporters that “I think we were extremely competitive” in at least getting Yamamoto’s attention.

“We were aggressive. When we made our presentation [to Yamamoto’s representatives], I think our guys did a tremendous job,” Dombrowski said. “I think they presented the organization well….I don’t think it had anything to do with anything else, he just preferred to be a Dodger.  Ultimately he was just not a person attuned to coming to Philly.”

In terms of further pursuits, Dombrowski said other additions would come “more around the edges” of the roster, since so much of Philadelphia’s 26-man is already set.  This will take the form of bullpen help and depth/swingman type of pitchers for the rotation, and Dombrowski downplayed the idea of adding another outfielder.  With Harper now the regular first baseman and Schwarber the regular DH, the Phillies will have Castellanos, Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas, Cristian Pache, Jake Cave, Simon Muzziotti, and utilitymen Weston Wilson and Kody Clemens all in the mix for outfield playing time.

Phillies Still Interested In Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Additional Depth Pitching

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Even after officially reuniting with Aaron Nola on a seven-year, $172MM deal earlier today, the Phillies are still in the hunt for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports.  A source tells Coffey that the Phils will be “pretty aggressive” in going after the Japanese right-hander, “but if they don’t settle on the right price, they won’t push for a deal.”

The Athletic’s Matt Gelb concurs, hearing that the Phillies “will not be a top bidder on Yamamoto after finalizing the Nola deal.”  Given how Yamamoto has gotten so much interest from multiple clubs and how MLBTR projects a nine-year, $225MM price tag for the righty’s first Major League contract, having any financial limits in place might alone halt Philadelphia’s chances.  Gelb is also pessimistic about the Phillies’ chances due to the team’s relative lack of a history with Japanese players — in particular, no Japanese pitcher has ever appeared on Philadelphia’s MLB roster.

That said, the special circumstances of Yamamoto’s arrival in North American baseball has kept the Phillies interested on some level, and it could be that the club ultimately decides to make the splash on a special talent.  Yamamoto is only 25 years old, and thus could be a rotation fixture for the better part of a decade if he pitches anything like he has over seven dominant seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball.  Given how owner John Middleton and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski haven’t shown much compunction about spending to upgrade the Phillies’ roster, Philadelphia probably can’t truly be ruled out until Yamamoto has officially put pen to paper with another team.

Yamamoto is already an exception to the rest of the Phillies’ pitching plans for the offseason.  Coffey writes that the team is still aiming to add at least one more rotation-caliber piece, and potentially two in the form of Yamamoto and a swingman or spot starter type that could be optioned back and forth from Triple-A.  Dylan Covey and Matt Strahm are already on the roster in such roles, though Covey is out of minor league options.

This runs somewhat counter to Dombrowski’s statement earlier this week that the Phillies were only looking for one more starter, though Coffey’s framing of the other potential additions as depth pieces wouldn’t detract from the projected starting five of Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker, and Cristopher Sanchez.  If Yamamoto signs elsewhere, the Phillies will probably target only depth starters or multi-inning relievers going forward, as Coffey says “it’s unlikely” the team would pivot to another top-tier hurler.

In term of larger pitching expenditures, the Phillies might be saving some money for Wheeler, as Gelb writes that the team plans to discuss an extension at some point this offseason, if possibly closer to Spring Training.  2024 is the final season of the five-year, $118MM pact Wheeler signed during the 2019-20 offseason, and though Wheeler turns 34 in May, it’s easy to see why the Phillies are interested in a longer relationship.  The righty has been excellent over his four years in Philadelphia, posting a 3.06 ERA over 629 1/3 innings and twice meriting top-six finishes in NL Cy Young voting.

Blake Snell Wins National League Cy Young Award

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Free agent left-hander Blake Snell has been named the National League Cy Young Award winner for 2023, per an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. Logan Webb of the Giants finished second in the voting while Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks finished third.

Snell, 31 next month, has now earned a Cy Young award for the second time in his career. The first trophy was in the American League, with Snell winning as a member of the Rays in 2018. He is just the seventh pitcher to win the award in both leagues, joining Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martínez, Max Scherzer, Gaylord Perry and Roy Halladay.

The left-handed Snell hasn’t been the most consistent pitcher in his career, with both his health and performance wobbling over the years, but his two award-winning campaigns have been excellent. His first trophy came after posting an earned run average of 1.89 with the Rays and this second piece of hardware was earned by posting a 2.25 for the Padres this year. His most recent campaign saw him walk 13.3% of batters faced but he danced around those by striking out 31.5% of his opponents and keeping the ball on the ground at a 44.4% clip. He probably had some help from the baseball gods as his .256 batting average on balls in play and 86.7% strand rate were both on the lucky side of average, but his punchouts and grounders surely helped him somewhat as well.

Outside of those two campaigns, the results have been far more mixed. He got to 180 innings pitched in his award-winning campaigns but hasn’t reached 130 in any other season. He also hasn’t posted an ERA lower than 3.24 in any of them.

Of course, that doesn’t matter for the Cy Young voting. It’s a single-season award and his year-to-year consistency is not something for the voters to consider. Snell’s voting wasn’t quite unanimous but he got 28 of the 30 first-place votes. But his overall track record will be of concern to the clubs considering signing him as a free agent. Pitchers with multiple Cy Youngs don’t hit free agency every day but it’s also incredibly rare for a pitcher to put so many runners on base without allowing them to score. Regardless of those concerns, MLBTR predicted Snell to land a contract of $200MM over seven years and he’s already garnering plenty of interest.

Webb had a 3.25 ERA in 216 innings for the Giants this year, which got him one of the first-place votes and 17 for second. Gallen had a 3.47 ERA in his 210 innings, which led to one first-place vote and three for second. In the full voting, which can be seen here, votes also went to Spencer Strider, Justin Steele, Zack Wheeler, Kodai Senga and Corbin Burnes.

Gold Glove Winners Announced

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Major League Baseball announced the Gold Glove winners tonight, as selected by a group of managers, coaches, and statistical analysis.  Twenty-five percent of the selection total was determined by SABR’s Defensive Index metrics, while the other 75 percent was determined by votes from all 30 managers and up to six coaches from each team.  Of the latter pool, managers and coaches were limited to voting on players in their own league, and they weren’t allowed to vote for any players on their own team.  The utility Gold Glove wasn’t determined with any votes, but rather via a defensive formula calculated by SABR and Rawlings.

The list of winners…

 

Quick Hits: Reds, Wheeler, Morel, Rays Ballpark

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The Reds had a longstanding interest in Zack Wheeler as both a trade target and then when the righty entered free agency in the 2019-20 offseason.  Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer recently revisited that free agent pursuit, which ended when the Phillies signed Wheeler to a five-year, $118MM contract.  According to Nightengale, the Reds were also willing to spend beyond $100MM to sign Wheeler, but they may have been undone by geography more than just dollars.  Wheeler prioritized staying on the East Coast and closer to his wife’s home state of New Jersey, giving the Phils the edge over both the Reds and the White Sox (who reportedly offered more than $118MM).

Needless to say, signing Wheeler would’ve changed the entire trajectory of recent Reds history, not to mention the Phillies’ last three seasons and their current berth in the 2022 World Series.  As Nightengale notes, the Reds went on to sign Nick Castellanos (for $64MM over four years) and Shogo Akiyama ($21MM over three years) after Wheeler left the market, and it isn’t known if either of those deals could’ve or would’ve still happened if Cincinnati had made its big investment in Wheeler’s contract.

More from around the baseball world…

  • Christopher Morel had a solid rookie season, hitting .235/.308/.433 with 16 home runs over 425 plate appearances for the Cubs.  Beyond his contributions at the plate, Morel also started games as a second baseman, third baseman, shortstop, center fielder, and left fielder.  ‘There’s not many guys in the big leagues that can do what he does, the consistency he’s shown at times in each position,’’ Cubs assistant coach Jonathan Mota told Maddie Lee of the Chicago-Sun Times.  A super-utility role would make Morel a valuable commodity on the roster, and both Morel and the Cubs seem committed to continuing his prep work at multiple positions going forward.
  • Tampa-area businessman Darryl Shaw recently bought 25 acres of waterfront land in the Ybor City neighborhood, and as John Romano of the Tampa Bay Times explains, Shaw tried in the past to work with the Rays in other ventures in the Ybor area.  Shaw’s new land purchase might therefore revive the idea of a new Rays ballpark in downtown Tampa, though Romano notes that this could be a long shot for a variety of reasons, including a lack of committed civic funding and the Rays’ increased interest in a new park (and accompanying “baseball village” infrastructure) built on the grounds of Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg.  Any number of proposals involving Tampa, St. Pete, and even Montreal have been floated over the years as the Rays look for a new home, and it remains to be seen if any answer can be found before the club’s lease at the Trop expires after the 2027 season.  Rays team president Matt Silverman said that “city and county officials on both sides of the bay seem to appreciate the value of baseball and are focused on finding a solution.  The discussions are going on simultaneously in a parallel, non-competitive, non-adversarial way.  Everyone understands time is of the essence.”

NL Injury Notes: Peralta, Wood, Wheeler, Phillies

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Freddy Peralta hasn’t pitched since September 8 due to right shoulder fatigue, but the Brewers right-hander told MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy and other reporters that he believes he’ll be back before the regular season is over, given how well Peralta has felt after preliminary throwing sessions.  The next step will be for Peralta to throw off of a mound, but it seems possible that he might not miss much time beyond the 15-day minimum stint on the injured list.

After an All-Star season in 2021, Peralta has pitched only 70 1/3 innings this year due to his current shoulder issue, as well as a posterior strain in that same right shoulder that cost him over two months of action.  Even with these health woes, Peralta has still posted a 3.45 ERA, and the Brewers can use all the help they can get as they fight for a playoff berth.

More updates on other injury situations from around the National League…

  • One pitcher who won’t be returning in 2022 in Alex Wood, as Giants manager Gabe Kapler told reporters (including Evan Webeck of the Bay Area News Group) that Wood has been shut down for the remainder of the season.  Wood went onto the 15-day injured list at the start of September due to a left shoulder impingement, and since he hasn’t yet been cleared to throw, the Giants opted to keep the veteran southpaw on the sidelines.  Wood will finish his second season in San Francisco with a disappointing 5.10 ERA over 130 2/3 innings, though that ERA was somewhat inflated by a poor finish — with his shoulder injury hampering his effectiveness, Wood had a 7.89 ERA over his final three outings and 12 1/3 innings.  Wood is owed $12.5MM in 2023, the final season of the two-year free agent he signed to rejoin the Giants last winter.
  • With Zack Wheeler tentatively slated to return to the Phillies rotation on Wednesday, interim manager Rob Thomson told reporters (including Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer) said that the Phils will stick with their same rotation order.  This means that rookie left-hander Bailey Falter will retain his starting job, and Noah Syndergaard will be used as a piggyback starter behind Wheeler.  Syndergaard’s next actual start is slated for October 1, when the Phillies have a doubleheader against the Nationals.

Injury Notes: Olivares, Greene, Wheeler

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The Royals announced today that outfielder Edward Olivares was reinstated from the 60-day injured list, with first baseman Nick Pratto getting optioned in a corresponding move. Olivares went on the IL in mid-July due to a left quad strain. The club already had a vacancy on its 40-man roster, meaning no corresponding move was required in that department.

The injury was ill-timed for Olivares, 26, as he seemed on the verge of a breakout prior to that. In 36 games this year, he’s hit .303/.358/.434 for a 125 wRC+. With just over two weeks remaining until the offseason, he will try to get back into a groove and go into the winter with a strong finish. He’ll jump into the outfield mix with Michael A. Taylor, Drew Waters, Kyle Isbel, Hunter Dozier and Nate Eaton, with catcher MJ Melendez occasionally heading onto the grass as well.

Other injury updates from around the league…

  • The Reds announced that right-hander Hunter Greene was reinstated from the 15-day injured list. He is slated to start the second game of today’s doubleheader. Fellow righty Raynel Espinal was optioned in a corresponding move, while righty Kyle Dowdy is serving as the “29th man” for the twin bill. One of the top prospects in the game coming into this year, Greene hasn’t exactly been dominant in his MLB debut. He has a 5.26 ERA through his first 102 2/3 innings in the big leagues, though with a very strong 28.8% strikeout rate. Since the Reds have traded away established pitchers like Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle this year, they will need the prospects to step up and form the core of the next rotation. It’s possible there’s already a decent nucleus in place, with Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft all showing some signs of promise this year.
  • The Phillies have been without Zack Wheeler for almost a month but he could return this week without a rehab assignment, reports Matt Gelb of The Athletic. The tentative plan is for the righty to start Wednesday’s game against the Blue Jays, though probably not for very long. His most recent work was throwing two innings in a simulated game, which he will be gradually building on over the final two weeks of the regular season. As Gelb notes, Wheeler could potentially be lined up to start the first game of the Wild Card playoff round, but the Phils will have to make it there first. The club is in decent position to make the postseason since they are currently in possession of the second of three NL Wild Card spots, 1.5 games ahead of the Padres and 3 ahead of the Brewers. Getting Wheeler back will be tremendously helpful, assuming he doesn’t have any rust from his absence. Through 138 innings on the season, he has a 3.07 ERA, 26.7% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate and 44.1% ground ball rate.

NL Injury Notes: Madrigal, Wisdom, Dominguez, Eflin, Wheeler, Bryant

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The Cubs placed second baseman Nick Madrigal on the 10-day injured list due to a right groin strain, and activated Patrick Wisdom (left ring finger sprain) from the 10-day IL to fill the open roster spot.  Madrigal suffered the injury in yesterday’s game, and given the lack of time remaining in the season, it isn’t out of the question that Madrigal might be shut down entirely.  This is the second groin injury (the first strain was to Madrigal’s left groin) and third injury overall for the second baseman in 2022, after a back problem cost him three weeks in May.

Overall, Madrigal has played in only 59 games this season, only slightly topping the 54 games he played during a 2021 campaign that was shortened by hamstring surgery.  While Madrigal is still eyed as the Cubs’ second baseman of the future, this health history is already concerning, and it’s fair to say that his injuries were certainly a factor in his .249/.305/.282 slash line in 228 PA this season.  With the Cubs out of contention, their eyes are on 2023, and aren’t likely to push Madrigal back onto the field unless his current groin issue ends up being pretty minor.

Updates on other injury situations from around the National League…

  • Phillies interim manager Rob Thomson updated reporters (including MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki) on several injured Philadelphia players, including two pitchers ready to return to the mound.  Seranthony Dominguez will be activated prior to tomorrow’s game against the Nationals, after missing a little over three weeks due to right triceps tendinitis.  Zach Eflin will be activated from the 60-day IL prior to Tuesday’s game, with Eflin possibly working as an opener as he embarks on a new role as a relief pitcher.  Eflin has been out since late June due to knee problems, and with less time to ramp up for a starter’s workload, Philadelphia will instead use Eflin out of the bullpen.  Zack Wheeler (forearm tendinitis) won’t be back until at least September 20, but Wheeler threw 15 pitches off a mound today, and Thomson said Wheeler will throw a proper bullpen session on Monday or Tuesday.
  • Kris Bryant hasn’t played since July 31 due to plantar fasciitis, and Rockies manager Bud Black wasn’t sure if the slugger would be able to return before the season is over.  “There is time but I don’t know if it’s going to happen…He hasn’t had a bat in his hand for a while, but he’s feeling much better,” Black told reporters, including The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders.  Bryant has been able to play catch and lift weights now that he is no longer in a walking boot, though it remains to be seen when (or if) he’d be able to take part in fuller baseball activities.  Between the platar fasciitis and two separate IL stints due to back injuries, Bryant’s first year with the Rockies has essentially been a lost season, with only 42 games played.  The one bright spot is that Bryant at least hit well when he was able to play, contributing a .306/.376/.475 slash line and five homers in 181 plate appearances.

Pitching Notes: Wheeler, Pomeranz, Flaherty, Hudson

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Zack Wheeler underwent an MRI Thursday that didn’t reveal any structural damage, Phillies interim manager Rob Thomson told NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury and other reporters.  Wheeler received the testing after feeling soreness during a catch session, and while the issue seems to be just be elbow inflammation, it does present new questions about when Wheeler will be able to return to the rotation.  The right-hander was retroactively placed on the 15-day injured list on August 22, and was expected to miss two starts while recovering from forearm tendinitis.

“It’s feeling better and I’m sure if this was a playoff game, he’d say, ’Give me the ball.’  But he’s still feeling it a little bit so we’re going to wait and re-evaluate on Monday or Tuesday,” Thomson said.  The skipper said he isn’t too concerned about Wheeler’s status, but Wheeler won’t be activated from the IL on Tuesday, his first day of eligibility for reinstatement.  Wheeler is enjoying another strong season and has been a big part of the Phillies’ success, and the club naturally needs the righty back as soon as possible (health permitting) for the stretch run.

More on other pitching situations around baseball….

  • Drew Pomeranz has yet to pitch this season after undergoing flexor tendon surgery in August 2021, and his chances of a return seemingly took a hit when his rehab was shut down due to soreness two weeks ago.  However, Padres manager Bob Melvin told reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune) that Pomeranz played catch on Friday and is slated to throw later this week.  After the shutdown, Pomeranz had a checkup with Dr. Neal ElAttrache but was told that some soreness is a routine part of the recovery process.  “There’s still a chance to get [Pomeranz] back here before the season is over,” Melvin said.
  • The Cardinals will activate Jack Flaherty off the 60-day IL Monday for a start against the Nationals.  Shoulder problems have limited Flaherty to only eight innings over three starts this season, marking his second consecutive injury-marred year.  With Flaherty back, Cards manager Oliver Marmol told reporters (including Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) that Dakota Hudson will move to the bullpen for now, and might not start again until a doubleheader against the Reds on September 17.  Despite below-average Statcast metrics almost across the board, Hudson has managed a 4.43 ERA over 126 innings, though his SIERA is a less-favorable 5.11.  It doesn’t seem like either Flaherty or Hudson are candidates for starting assignments in the postseason, though their work in September and October will give Marmol and company more to think about in determining roles on playoff rosters.

Phillies Place Zack Wheeler On Injured List

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The Phillies placed starter Zack Wheeler on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to August 22, with tendinitis in his right forearm. Bailey Falter is expected to start tomorrow in his place.

Aside from a brief stay on the COVID list in May, Wheeler has remained on the active roster since signing with Philadelphia heading into the 2020 season. While any mention of forearm discomfort for a pitcher is eyebrow-raising, the Phils don’t seem particularly concerned. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told reporters that Wheeler was willing to pitch through the issue, but the club is hopeful that by skipping two starts, he can put it in the rearview mirror (via Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer and Todd Zolecki of MLB.com).

Last year’s NL Cy Young runner-up, Wheeler has remained a pivotal part of the starting five this season. Through 23 starts, he owns a 3.07 ERA with a 26.7% strikeout rate. The right-hander’s production isn’t quite at the level it was last year, but he ranks among the top 30 hurlers (minimum 100 innings) in ERA and strikeout percentage. Any downturn in performance is essentially attributable to this month, as Wheeler has a 4.44 ERA over his past four starts after carrying a 2.77 mark into August.

Falter seems likely to plug the rotation gap for a couple turns through the rotation, with the hope that Wheeler returns at full strength for the season’s final month. The Phillies have been one of baseball’s hottest teams, and they carry a 69-55 record into play tonight. Philadelphia is in possession of the second Wild Card spot in the National League, holding a 3 1/2 game cushion over the Brewers (with the Padres in between the two clubs).

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