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Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox

By | at April 23, 2020 1:42am CDT

The White Sox made clear their three-year rebuild is over, aggressively pursuing veteran free agents and landing several of them.  They also locked up multiple core pieces with extensions.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Though the White Sox’ offseason got off to an inauspicious start with the shedding of international bonus pool money in the Welington Castillo trade, they quickly made that deal a footnote by signing catcher Yasmani Grandal to the largest contract in franchise history.  Grandal may be the best hitter and pitch framer among all MLB catchers, and he could represent a four-win improvement over incumbent James McCann (who moves into a backup role).  The signing also allowed the White Sox to move past last winter’s failed pursuit of Manny Machado, proving they actually were willing and able to win the bidding on a top free agent.

Back in August, Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times quoted White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu as saying through an interpreter, “[Owner] Jerry [Reinsdorf] several times has told me and my family that I am not going to wear a jersey other than a White Sox jersey.”  Though Abreu was briefly on the open market after the White Sox issued a one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer, he later told reporters he didn’t consider other teams.  With multiyear extension talks underway, Abreu chose to accept that one-year qualifying offer when the decision came due on November 14th.

In a cold and calculating sense, the White Sox could have exploited the situation and simply let the one-year deal stand, covering Abreu’s age-33 season.  Pragmatically, restructuring the one-year, $17.8MM deal as a three-year, $50MM pact to snag Abreu’s age 34 and 35 seasons was not a good baseball decision by White Sox Senior Vice President/GM Rick Hahn.  But clearly Abreu means more to the team’s owner and the franchise than just his WAR, and there’s no reason for fans to object to his contract unless it hamstrings the club from making other improvements.

That was certainly not the case in the short term, as the White Sox aggressively pursued the next item on their winter shopping list: a major starting pitching addition.  There’s no evidence they were in the mix for Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, who signed record deals for $324MM and $245MM, respectively.  So there was an expected level of restraint from a White Sox franchise that has always balked at the idea of guaranteeing more than five years to a starting pitcher.

Instead, the White Sox did about all they could to sign the third-best starting pitcher on the free agent market: hard-throwing righty Zack Wheeler.  Wheeler ultimately signed with the Phillies for five years and $118MM, with the White Sox rumored to have reached $120MM.  As Jim Margalus of Sox Machine put it, “For the first time in documented history, the White Sox reportedly finished with the highest bid for a free agent who landed a nine-figure contract…only it wasn’t good enough to actually land the player.”  Wheeler reportedly had a strong preference to remain close to New Jersey.  As Margalus noted in his post, it’s true that the White Sox could have pushed up into the $125-130MM range, but “at some point in the negotiations the losing party has to take the hint.”  Plus, if the White Sox had overwhelmed Wheeler’s geographic preference by overpaying, there’s no telling how that kind of mercenary arrangement would have worked out in terms of Wheeler’s performance.

Veteran lefty Cole Hamels might have been second on the White Sox’ wish list, but he wound up with the Braves on a one-year, $18MM deal.  If you look back to the December 4th scoops from Marc Carig of The Athletic and Jeff Passan of ESPN, news of the Wheeler agreement came two hours after Hamels’ deal broke.  Both sets of negotiations involved the Phillies and White Sox, but it seems possible that the White Sox wanted to see what happened with Wheeler before signing Hamels – perhaps because they didn’t feel comfortable landing both and paying them more than $40MM in total in 2020.  The end result: the White Sox continued going further down their starting pitcher preference list.  Though there was sufficient time to pivot to a pursuit of Madison Bumgarner, it’s unclear whether the Sox had interest or if geography would have again rendered Chicago the bridesmaid anyway.  So who was going to take the White Sox’ money?

Not Jordan Lyles, as he went to the Rangers a few days later for two years and $16MM.  The White Sox were among the runners-up.  Perhaps Lyles was intended as the secondary rotation piece, which eventually became Gio Gonzalez on a one-year deal.  It will be a homecoming for the 34-year-old lefty, who was drafted 38th overall by the White Sox in 2004 but traded to the Phillies in the Jim Thome deal in ’05.  Gonzalez then rejoined the White Sox, along with Gavin Floyd, in the December ’06 Freddy Garcia trade.  Yet the Sox would trade Gonzalez again a year later, this time to Oakland in the Nick Swisher deal.  Only then did Gonzalez make his MLB debut, so the 12-year veteran has yet to don a White Sox uniform in a regular season game.  The lefty has often outperformed his peripheral stats, perhaps due to his success in limiting hard contact.  An ERA in the low 4.00s would be sufficient to term the one-year contract a success.

By the latter half of December, the White Sox had turned to Scott Boras clients Dallas Keuchel and Hyun-Jin Ryu by necessity.  It seemed that both pitchers were willing to sign with the highest bidder.  The White Sox wound up with Keuchel, who commanded a lesser commitment.  The 32-year-old comes with a lower ceiling than Ryu but may also be the safer choice based on their health records.  Keuchel is not nearly as exciting as Zack Wheeler, but it’s difficult even with hindsight to say the White Sox should have chosen a different free agent hurler.  Perhaps the trade market could have offered a more interesting addition, with Corey Kluber and David Price eventually changing teams.  But the Indians may not have been willing to move Kluber within the division, and the White Sox were in contact with the Red Sox on Price.

Alongside this pitching pursuit, the White Sox were simultaneously trying to upgrade at right field and designated hitter.  They struck first on right field, adding Nomar Mazara straight up for center field prospect Steele Walker.  Walker was expendable for the suddenly win-now White Sox, as the 23-year-old might top out as a fourth outfielder and has yet to play at Double-A.

Mazara, 25 this month, has logged almost 2,200 plate appearances for the Rangers but is mostly appealing for his potential.  In his four seasons with Texas, Mazara has never exceeded a 95 wRC+ (100 is league average).  The White Sox and new hitting coach Frank Menechino must believe they can find another gear in Mazara.  The club explored alternatives before settling on Mazara, reportedly including Marcell Ozuna, Joc Pederson, Kole Calhoun, Nick Castellanos, and Yasiel Puig.

The White Sox made a solid addition at the DH spot with Edwin Encarnacion.  Even at age 37, Encarnacion remains capable of a 120 wRC+ season.  He’s cranked at least 32 home runs in each of the last eight seasons.  No matter how the 2020 season shakes out, the White Sox will have the chance to try again with Encarnacion by exercising a $12MM option for 2021.

In late December, the White Sox turned their focus to augmenting their bullpen, which is anchored by Alex Colome, Kelvin Herrera, and Aaron Bummer.  With most of the top free agents already off the board, Hahn snagged sidearmer Steve Cishek.  The 33-year-old will jump across town after two successful seasons out of the Cubs’ bullpen.  Though this group has had success at times, it’s still easy to picture the bullpen as a weak spot for the 2020 White Sox.

With most of their offseason shopping done, the new year was about locking down core pieces for the White Sox.  First came uber-prospect Luis Robert, whose $50MM deal is a record for a player who has yet to appear in the Majors.  The contract shuts down potential service time manipulation of Robert, and the Sox now figure to put him on the Opening Day roster.  Other potential top 2020 rookies like Nate Pearson and Jo Adell, without big league contracts, are in a position where they will fail to gain any big league service in 2020 should the season be canceled.  Robert wouldn’t gain service time either, but the result would be his first club option covering his last arbitration season and his second club option covering his first free agent year.

Putting aside potential coronavirus effects, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic noted that “Robert will be paid at the top of the arbitration market, earning more than Anthony Rendon ($49.4 million), Harper ($47.9 million) and Manny Machado ($34 million) did before reaching free agency.”  As a rival executive termed it to Rosenthal, the White Sox paid “superstar insurance” on Robert.  Meaning that if Robert becomes one of baseball’s best players, he had a chance to exceed $50MM through arbitration, as Mookie Betts did and Kris Bryant and Francisco Lindor will.  There are certainly scenarios where the White Sox overpaid for Robert’s arbitration years – namely if he deals with significant injuries – but the contract could still be a wash for the team given the potential surplus value of the free agent year they bought out.

Next, the White Sox locked up Bummer.  This, too, seems to be designed to protect against the chance Bummer would have started racking up huge arbitration salaries — which is a bit odd.  He’s only accumulated one save so far in his career and wasn’t slated for the ninth inning in 2020.  So it’s hard to see how he might have earned more than $16MM through arbitration.  The White Sox still get club options on his first two free agent seasons, but trying to predict whether a reliever will be valuable five years out is a fool’s errand.  Perhaps the Sox feel Bummer is a pitcher who will perform the best knowing he’s set for life financially.

The club’s third extension of the offseason went to Yoan Moncada.  Like Robert, Moncada is a Cuban defector who had already banked a large signing bonus.  It’s a bit of a surprise Moncada jumped at this offer given the $31.5MM he already had in the bank from signing with the Red Sox five years ago.  Moncada didn’t reach the heights of Alex Bregman‘s extension, which makes sense since his accomplishments didn’t quite stack up.  But with all arrows pointing upward on Moncada, another season similar to his 2019 campaign would have set the bar above $100MM.  So the White Sox did well to lock him up at $70MM and buy out two free agent years.

Perhaps the White Sox would benefit from a shortened 2020 season, as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd has suggested.  For example, their rotation was set to get a boost this year, with Carlos Rodon and Michael Kopech potentially returning from Tommy John surgery in June.  I imagine the White Sox are kind of like someone who spent three years restoring a car in their garage and is now itching to take it out for a drive.  While uncertainty reigns during this stage of the coronavirus pandemic, the White Sox are now built for an extended run of success.  Even without a long-term deal in place (yet) for ace Lucas Giolito, the White Sox control him through 2023.  Moncada is controlled through 2025, Eloy Jimenez through ’26, and Robert through ’27.  And we haven’t even discussed prospects like Andrew Vaughn and Nick Madrigal.  Things are looking up for the White Sox, whenever they are able to take the field.

—

How would you rate the White Sox’ offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users.)

How would you grade the White Sox' offseason?

  • A 53% (1,908)
  • B 39% (1,401)
  • C 6% (199)
  • F 2% (67)
  • D 1% (27)

Total votes: 3,602

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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How Did The White Sox Trade Fernando Tatis Jr.?!

By | at April 21, 2020 11:35pm CDT

You have to give the White Sox credit for signing Fernando Tatis Jr. in the first place.  They snagged the 16-year-old as an international signing out of the Dominican Republic back in 2015 for a bonus of $700K, years after Marco Paddy had restored credibility to the team’s efforts in Latin America following the David Wilder scandal.

At the time, MLB.com ranked Tatis Jr. 30th in his class, which also included Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Juan Soto, and Cristian Pache.  The biggest available international player was Cuban star Yoan Moncada, at a time when a team could elect to exceed its bonus pool and pay a 100% tax, as the Red Sox did.

Tatis’ father had played 11 years in the Majors, cracking 113 home runs, so the bloodlines were strong.  In their scouting report, MLB.com said, “Scouts like Tatis Jr.’s swing, his strong arm and his fluid actions on defense. He’s shown decent arm strength and raw power to his pull side. Tatis Jr.’s knack for barreling up balls and his repeatable swing have also impressed evaluators.”  Jeff Buchanan of FutureSox wrote, “Tatis clearly doesn’t have the same upside as [White Sox top 2015 international signing] Franklin Reyes, but his well-rounded skillset, high baseball IQ and professional mentality mean he likely comes with less risk than Reyes and is a better bet to maximize his potential as a possible everyday player.” 

Tatis Jr. was certainly an interesting July 2 international signing, but according to Dennis Lin’s excellent oral history in The Athletic, the Blue Jays, Indians, and Rays were the only other teams to attempt to sign him, which is why he didn’t land the multi-million bonuses others in his class did.  If teams had an inkling of what Tatis Jr. would become, he would have signed for ten times as much money.  Most of these players were six years away from the Majors, and projecting that far out is very difficult.  Many of these guys could have been traded for a veteran starting pitcher the year after signing and we would have never spoken of it again.

11 months passed between the date of Tatis Jr. signing and the date of his fateful trade to the Padres.  How much height the infielder gained in the interim could develop into a tall tale one day, but in Lin’s article, the player himself said he added two inches.  Padres GM A.J. Preller, then a member of the Rangers’ front office, had seen Tatis Jr. multiple times before the player signed with Chicago.  Members of the Padres’ front office observed him at least twice after he joined the White Sox organization: during the Arizona Instructional League in the fall of 2015, and again during extended spring training in 2016.  So Tatis Jr. was on the Padres’ radar as the 2016 season progressed.

Padres executive chairman Ron Fowler told Lin that the team’s efforts to trade veteran starter James Shields “became accelerated” after the pitcher endured a May 31st, 2016 drubbing in Seattle in which he allowed ten earned runs while recording eight outs.  In the outing, Shields’ ERA jumped from 3.06 to 4.28.  The day after that start from Shields, Fowler went on the radio to term it an “an embarrassment to the team, an embarrassment to him.”  After trading both Shields and outfielder Matt Kemp, Fowler would throw shade in saying, “We made a conscious decision to ship them out because we want people that are prepared to improve.”

So if the James Shields trade talks picked up around June 1st, 2016, where did the White Sox stand at that point?  The club’s record stood at 29-25, two games behind the Royals in the AL Central and firmly in the Wild Card race as well.  According to FanGraphs, the White Sox had a 33.8% chance of making the playoffs, which was actually better than teams that sat ahead of them like the Royals and Orioles.  The White Sox hadn’t reached the playoffs since 2008, and GM Rick Hahn was justified in seeking reinforcements.

At the time, the White Sox starting rotation was fronted by Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, and Carlos Rodon.  Free agent signing Mat Latos held down the fourth spot, but had a 6.54 ERA over his previous six starts.  The club had recently released longtime rotation fixture John Danks, eating significant money in the process.  Miguel Gonzalez was able to step on and temporarily hold the fifth starter job, with Hahn looking to make an acquisition.

As Hahn put it to Jon Greenberg of The Athletic, “That was a move, in going out to get James, that was due to the lack of depth in the organization. We did not have internal answers when (John) Danks wasn’t getting back to a form that was serviceable and (Mat) Latos was taking on water and regressing back to his more likely form for the rest of the season. So we had to do something stem the flow here. And that’s very fair to say that transaction is sort of emblematic of that past way of doing things and trying to fix it on the fly.”  The team’s lack of rotation depth didn’t come out of nowhere, though, as depth seemed thin even prior to the season.

In just about every write-up of the Shields trade at the time, Tatis Jr. was listed after Erik Johnson, the other prospect the Padres acquired.  Johnson, a 26-year-old righty, had been drafted by the White Sox in the second round out of UC Berkeley back in 2011.  Coming through Chicago’s farm system, Johnson was seen as a potential No. 3 starter.  His value peaked prior to the 2014 season, when Keith Law (then of ESPN) ranked him as the 59th-best prospect in baseball. But Johnson failed to stick in the White Sox rotation from 2014 up until the trade.

Could the White Sox have acquired Shields for different prospects?  According to Preller in Lin’s article, “We talked about two of their top prospects. They weren’t going to move those guys. And we talked about Tatis as well. You got the sense that he might be the guy they would talk about in the initial conversations, just because he was further away and hadn’t played a game yet.”  The top White Sox prospects prior to the 2016 were Tim Anderson and Carson Fulmer, as they had shipped off Frankie Montas in the offseason in the Todd Frazier deal.  At the time of the Shields trade, Anderson was less than a week away from supplanting Jimmy Rollins to become the team’s starting shortstop.  Fulmer had been drafted eighth overall by the White Sox the previous year, and it would be ridiculous revisionist history to suggest they should have had the foresight to trade him instead of Tatis Jr.

Was it reasonable for the White Sox to expect a midseason boost from Shields?  MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth and Connor Byrne wrote at the time:

Shields, 34, isn’t the pitcher he was during his best years with the Rays and Royals, but he remains a competent innings eater who’s on pace to exceed the 200-inning plateau and surpass the 30-start barrier for the 11th straight season. That aside, Shields does come with red flags. After a dreadful final start with the Padres, Shields’ ERA (4.28) is at its highest since 2010. Further, his strikeout rate – which spiked to a personal-best 9.61 per nine innings last year – has regressed to 7.62 (closer to his 7.84 career average) and the control that he displayed in his earlier days has declined. Shields’ walk rate is at 3.61 per nine innings, which is in line with last year’s 3.6, and his velocity has dipped. To Shields’ credit, he has long been a capable ground-ball generator – at 48 percent this year, there’s no sign he’s slowing down in that area. That should help his cause as he shifts to the hitter-friendly confines of U.S. Cellular Field, but he does have the third-highest home run rate among qualified starters since last season (16.9 percent).

While Shields may have been an innings eater at that point in his career, no one expected him to post a 6.77 ERA for the remainder of the season.  It wasn’t crazy to view him as a useful veteran addition.  Plus, the Padres kicked in over $30MM, more than half of the money remaining on his contract.  To the White Sox, Shields looked to be an affordable rotation piece for the remainder of 2016 as well as the ’17 and ’18 seasons.

The White Sox pounced on Shields early, basically kicking off the 2016 trading season.  Later that summer, the Padres would also go on to trade their best starter, Drew Pomeranz, as well as Andrew Cashner.  The Orioles picked up Wade Miley, the Dodgers acquired Rich Hill, the Pirates snagged Ivan Nova, the Angels and Twins swapped Ricky Nolasco and Hector Santiago, and the Blue Jays got Scott Feldman.  There are many alternate universes where the White Sox acquire someone other than Shields, and who knows whether Tatis Jr. would have been involved.  They also could have plugged in Miguel Gonzalez in June, held off on trades for a month like most teams, and realized they should be sellers rather than buyers.

Hahn has owned the Tatis Jr. trade, calling himself a “jackass” in front of fans and telling MLB.com’s Scott Merkin, “That was probably the last deal we made with having a short-term mindset in mind.  Ultimately when this thing gets right, we are going to once again have a shorter time arising goal with our trades. It doesn’t mean you want to make a deal that haunts you for the long term, obviously.”  Every GM has a trade he’d like to take back.  Around that same time, the Marlins traded Luis Castillo, got him back due to a medical dispute, and then traded him again in the offseason.  It was also the summer where the Dodgers traded Yordan Alvarez, as outlined here.

Though Hahn admitted to Greenberg in 2017, “I probably physically cringe whenever I see a Tatis highlight,” the club embarked on what seems to have been a successful rebuilding effort after the ’16 season.  The White Sox brought in Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolito, Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease, and Michael Kopech in subsequent trades and pounced on Luis Robert in the international market.  Tatis Jr. may always be the one that got away, but an extended playoff run should take the sting off for the White Sox.

For more on the topic of the Tatis Jr. trade, be sure to check out Jeff Todd’s video on our YouTube channel.

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Quick Hits: Warren, Yankees, ChiSox, Garland, Cubs

By | at April 19, 2020 10:17pm CDT

It was on this day back in 1890 that the Dodgers played their first game as members of the National League, as the team then known as the Brooklyn Bridegrooms dropped a 15-9 result to the Boston Beaneaters.  Brooklyn switched leagues after winning the American Association championship in 1889, and immediately continued their success against their new competition, posting an 86-43 record in 1890 to win the NL title.  This was the first of 23 NL pennants won by the Dodgers franchise, tied with the Giants for the most in league history.

Some notes from modern-day baseball…

  • Adam Warren headed into the free agent market after undergoing Tommy John surgery last September, so amidst all of that uncertainty, he “didn’t look anywhere else” once he received interest from the Yankees, the right-hander told George A. King III of the New York Post.  Having already pitched for the Yankees in two separate stints earlier in his career, Warren said the Bronx Bombers “were my ideal team….It was a situation where I didn’t have that much bargaining power and I wanted to catch on with a team that would take a chance on me.  I was very fortunate the Yankees wanted to do that.”  Warren signed a two-year minor league contract with New York, with the expectation being that he would spend the 2020 season recovering from surgery and be ready to pitch in 2021.  If a reworked 2020 schedule leads to games deep into October or November, Warren admitted that “kind of tempts me to come back quicker, but the timing of the surgery it would feel like I am rushing back.  The most realistic goal is treat this as a gone year.”  The recovery process seems to be going rather smoothly for Warren, who said “fortunately I haven’t missed a beat too much with my rehab” even while being limited to working out at his home.
  • The Jose Quintana-for-Eloy Jimenez (and Dylan Cease) trade may not be a fond memory for Cubs fans, though an even more lopsided deal between Chicago’s two teams took place back in 1998.  The Athletic’s James Fegan looks back at what he described as the best trade in at least the modern era of White Sox history, when the Sox acquired Jon Garland from the Cubs in July 1998 for right-handed reliever Matt Karchner.  The Cubs wanted some bullpen help for their playoff drive, and picked up Karchner even though he was in the midst of struggles that lasted both before and after the trade.  Karchner pitched two more injury-plagued years and was out of baseball after the 2000 season, while Garland went on to become a mainstay of the White Sox rotation.  Garland averaged 179 innings per season from 2000-07, and played a major role for the Southsiders’ World Series-winning team in 2005.
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Quick Hits: Braves, Rays, Cubs, White Sox

By | at April 11, 2020 2:38pm CDT

The Braves have pledged to continue paying their employees—both full-time and part-time—through May 31, according to Kiley McDaniel of ESPN. Several teams extended a stipend to employees through March, but the Braves are the first team that will compensate its staff through the end of this month, let alone the end of May. McDaniel would go on to clarify in a later Tweet that gameday employees, whose pay is normally tied to games, will be paid in accordance with the $1MM fund established last month. However, workers whose earnings aren’t attached to games will be paid as usual. It’s encouraging that teams are willing to offer a helpful hand to their staff, and it’s possible that more teams will follow in the Braves’ footsteps. And while there are plenty of problems that still need solving, this kind of decision can go a long way towards relieving the stress that comes with these circumstances.

  • The Rays, meanwhile, have a plan for how they’ll divvy up the $1MM fund established by all 30 MLB teams in March, as explained by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Some 1,200 Rays gameday staffers will receive a one-time payment to help support them during the delayed season: Team employees (ushers, guest services, etc.) will receive $1,000 and concessions workers, security, and others will receive $500.
  • Similarly, Chicago’s Cubs and White Sox have offered grants of $500 to their part-time ballpark employees as their means of allocating the aforementioned $1MM fund, writes The Athletic’s Jon Greenberg. Importantly, Cubs VP of Communication tells Greenberg that the Cubs’ fund “will go way beyond a million,” but at the same time is uncertain whether there will be a second round of payouts to employees. It’s notable that the referenced $1MM figure was established merely as a baseline, and it’s possible—perhaps even likely—that many teams will go above and beyond that threshold, especially depending on the length of the season delay, which can have a profound impact on the livelihood of the thousands of employees who make MLB games possible.
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Carlos Rodon On Schedule In Tommy John Rehab

By | at April 9, 2020 6:54pm CDT

White Sox southpaw Carlos Rodon is “on schedule” in his rehab from last May’s Tommy John surgery, the lefty himself tells Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. Rodon is throwing three times per week, including two bullpen sessions, and could be ready to face live hitters within a matter of weeks. Rodon believes it’s “realistic” that he’d be ready to pitch in a game setting by June, although we of course don’t yet know when (or if) games will be resuming.

A healthy Rodon would be a boost to an already improved White Sox rotation, and if he does indeed prove ready to pitch in a game setting from the get-go or shortly into a delayed season, that’d be of particular benefit to the Sox given what’s likely to be a condensed schedule featuring frequent doubleheaders. Currently, the White Sox are set to rely on Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel, Dylan Cease, Gio Gonzalez and Reynaldo Lopez, but the delayed start to the year could drop Rodon into the mix before long and could also allow prized prospect Michael Kopech to join the fray earlier than anticipated. Kopech, who is returning from Tommy John surgery of his own (Sept. 2018), did make it into a spring game and pitched one inning before play was halted.

It’s a group that’s teeming with ability but lacking in terms of certainty. Giolito, the former first-round pick and uber-prospect broke out with a huge showing in 2019 and looks like the leader of the staff after tossing 176 2/3 innings of 3.41 ERA ball with 11.6 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9. Even he only has one successful season under his belt, though.

Keuchel is, of course, a steady presence in the rotation but looks more like an innings eater now than the ground-ball savant who captured a Cy Young Award back in 2015. Gonzalez was sharp for Milwaukee last year but averaged barely 4 2/3 innings per start. Some of that is due to the atypical way in which the Brewers deploy their pitchers, but he’s never been known as an efficient starter.

Beyond that trio, each of Cease, Lopez and Kopech have been considered among the game’s premier overall prospects at times. Lopez hasn’t really delivered on that hype outside of a 2018 season that saw him post a 3.91 ERA with concerning peripherals that pointed to regression — which is indeed what happened in 2019. Cease’s impressive fastball and swing-and-miss ability was on display in his 2019 debut, but so were his difficulties in locating the ball. Kopech has the pedigree and potential of a front-of-the-rotation arm but has yet to harness his own control and didn’t pitch at all in 2019 while rehabbing.

In terms of raw talent, it’s hard to find a better collection of young starters who are all on the same big league radar, but much of that potential remains untapped. As such, the return of a veteran arm like Rodon would be particularly welcome. He may not have quite reached the heights that some fans had hoped when he was drafted third overall in 2014, but he’s compiled 529 career innings with a 4.08 ERA and nearly a strikeout per frame. Getting back into games will be of particular importance for him on a personal level as well, given that Rodon is controlled only through the 2021 season and could use all the opportunities he can get to reestablish himself prior to free agency in the 2021-22 offseason.

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Remember When The White Sox Threw Four Consecutive Complete Games To Win The Pennant?

By | at April 4, 2020 12:38pm CDT

The 2005 Chicago White Sox get a bum deal as far as legacies are concerned. When they ended their 87-year championship drought by sweeping the Astros, they did so on the heels of the Red Sox breaking their own curse in dramatic fashion just a year before. Not only were the ChiSox overshadowed preemptively by Boston, but their victory left the crosstown Cubs with the lone multi-generational curse, which instantly drew more attention than even the Sox’ victory. Needless to say, Southsiders have long had a much-deserved chip on their shoulder as the less-heralded of the two Chicago baseball clubs.

The 2005 White Sox deserved more attention than they got, but not just because of their own broken curse. Ozzie Guillen’s club accomplished an amazing feat just in getting to the World Series, one that we may never see again. After dropping game one of the ALCS to Vlad Guerrero Sr. and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, the White Sox won the American League pennant behind four consecutive complete games.

There were zero complete games thrown in the 2019 playoffs. Not a one. There weren’t any in 2018 either. We got one in 2017 (Justin Verlander) and 3 in 2016 (though two of those were in losses where the starter only went 8 innings to get the CG). Not only did the 2005 White Sox rattle off eight straight wins to clinch the World Series, but after taking that game 1 loss (their only loss of the postseason), they strung together four straight complete games from this unlikely quartet: Mark Buehrle, Jon Garland, Freddy Garcia, and Jose Contreras.

It’s not impossible that we’ll see this kind of feat again. I mean, hey, Deacon Phillippe threw five complete games in a single postseason. For the 1903 Pittsburgh Pirates. But as far as this century is concerned, Ozzie Guillen’s likely to hold the record for fewest pitching changes in a postseason series.

Speaking of Guillen, you gotta give the guy props for the trust he had in his starting staff. Not only did he ride his starters for all four wins, but not a one of them put up a shutout. There were trials. There were tribulations. But either Guillen forgot the extension for the bullpen phone, or he believed in his horses. It’s not as if this was all that long ago and complete games were a dime a dozen. The four thrown by the White Sox in the ALCS were the only complete games thrown that postseason. There was just one complete game thrown in the playoffs the year before and none the year after. This was a feat. If it were the Red Sox or the Cubs, we’d probably talk about it a lot more.

So let’s take a moment to appreciate the run.

In terms of all-time rotations, Buehrle/Garland/Garcia/Contreras wasn’t exactly Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz/Avery. But it was a solid group who put together a remarkable run. These four starters not only came together at the perfect time, but at the perfect time in their individual careers.

Buehrle had the best career of the four as the long-time ace of the Southsiders, but his chief abilities included otherworldly defense and durability. The soft-tossing lefty led the AL in innings pitched in both 2004 and 2005. He put up 200-inning seasons for 14 consecutive years, falling short of the line only twice: his rookie season when he made just 3 starts and totaled 51 1/3 innings, and his final season in the majors, when at age 36 he put up “just” 198 2/3 innings for the Blue Jays (while still leading the majors with four complete games). Buehrle only once cracked the top-5 in Cy Young voting, but he was the definition of a reliable workhorse, and in limiting the Angels to just 5 hits and no walks over a tidy 99 pitches, he set the tone for the 2005 White Sox. The Sox won game 2 behind Buehrle 2-1, and they wouldn’t look back.

Jon Garland struggled to stay healthy for much of his career, but he was peaking in 2005. The 25-year-old, hulking right-hander won 18 games that season with a 3.50 ERA, earning his lone All-Star appearance. He threw three complete game shutouts that season, but the amazing piece for Garland was that his game 3 complete game was his first-ever postseason appearance. Not only that, but he’d only have one more, as the game 3 starter in Houston for the World Series. Garland made the most of it, giving up 2 runs on 4 hits while striking out 7.  Paul Konerko capped off a three-run first inning with a two-run shot off John Lackey, and Garland took them the rest of the way, using 118 pitches to finish off a 5-2 victory and put the White Sox up 2-1. Garland would give the White Sox two more solid seasons in the rotation before they traded him to the Angels following 2007 for Orlando Cabrera. His run with the White Sox, particularly 2005, would easily go down as the highlight of Garland’s playing days.

The White Sox turned to Freddy Garcia in game 4, but they used the same script from the prior night. Konerko hit a 3-run homer off Ervin Santana in the first and the White Sox never trailed. Garcia had failed to capitalize on the tremendous potential he showed as a 24-year-old for the 2001 Mariners, and by 2005 his best years were already behind him. Still, the White Sox acquired him midseason the year before along with another one-time heralded prospect in Ben Davis for a package of Mike Morse, Miguel Olivo and Jeremy Reed. Garcia put up 3.9 bWAR in his first full season in Chicago, going 14-8 with a 3.87 ERA/4.06 FIP. He threw 228 innings in total, and it was probably his best season outside of Seattle.

His game 4 performance put the White Sox on the brink of the pennant, using 116 pitches while giving up 2 runs, 5 hits, and 1 walk. The Sox tacked on solo runs in each of the third, fourth, and fifth innings, and the Angels never came closer than in the bottom of the second when Garcia surrendered a walk and made an error on an infield single. But with the tying run on first and runners on the corners, Garcia coaxed a double play off the bat of Steve Finley to end the threat. Garcia went the distance and the White Sox won 8-2.

After three straight complete games to put the White Sox up on the Angels 3-1, what really was Jose Contreras to do but go out and do the same? Like Garland, 2005 and 2006 was the pinnacle of Contreras’ stateside career. The Cuban import made his MLB debut as a 31-year-old with the Yankees in 2003, but they shipped him to the White Sox after 18 disappointing starts in 2004 for Esteban Loaiza. In 2005, the 33-year-old Contreras finally posted the type of season that was expected of him after coming over from Cuba. He went 15-7 with a 3.61 ERA/4.21 FIP, good for 3.6 bWAR (second only to the 3.8 bWAR he’d put up the following season).

In many ways, Contreras was the perfect guy to wrap up this incredible run. These outings weren’t the high velocity, high spin types of outings of the current era. Contreras, like the others before him, simply put the ball over the plate and let his defense do the work. He finished with 114 pitches, 3 earned runs, 5 hits, 2 walks, and just 2 strikeouts. Only twice did he allow more than one baserunner in an inning, and 5 times he put together 1-2-3 innings (including the final 4 frames).  The White Sox trailed 3-2 entering the 7th inning, but they’d tie it with a Joe Crede solo shot, then take the lead in the 8th when the Angels defense got sloppy. As for Contreras, after giving up the lead with those two runs in the sixth, he wouldn’t allow a baserunner the rest of the way.

The White Sox had some cushion in games 2-4, but there may have been cause for Guillen to let his starters go long. Dustin Hermanson (yes, Dustin Hermanson) saved 34 games for Chicago that year, but he was out of the role by the playoffs and would make just 6 more appearances in the majors. Bobby Jenks had taken over as closer in the playoffs, but he had just 6 saves and 32 appearances under his belt. Maybe Ozzie Guillen didn’t trust his bullpen, but either way, when Konerko and Aaron Roward each doubled home a run in the ninth, Guillen went back to Contreras to finish out the 6-3 victory and secure the White Sox’ first pennant since 1959. Amazingly, Guillen didn’t even have to lift a finger to do it.

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Video: Grading Rick Hahn’s Trade History For The White Sox

By | at April 3, 2020 1:30pm CDT

White Sox GM Rick Hahn has shaped the team as both a buyer and seller in many major trades over the years, involving Chris Sale, Adam Eaton, Jose Quintana, Todd Frazier, Jeff Samardzija, Jake Peavy, Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez, and more. Check out today’s video to see Jeff Todd’s evaluation of Hahn’s trade history.

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Prospect Faceoff: Robert v. Adell

By | at April 2, 2020 7:35pm CDT

There isn’t much doubt that the White Sox’s Luis Robert and the Angels’ Jo Adell are the two best outfield prospects in baseball. The prospect gurus at Baseball America, MLB.com and FanGraphs all rank the two that way, and they also place them among the top farmhands in baseball no matter the position. Robert (No. 2 overall at BA, No. 3 at MLB.com and No. 7 at FanGraphs) holds a small edge over Adell (No. 3 at BA, No. 6 at MLB.com and No. 4 at FanGraphs) at two of the three outlets, but they’re lumped so close together that the difference is negligible.

The Cuba-born Robert has already landed a pair of lucrative contracts during his time in professional baseball. Now 22 years old, Robert joined the White Sox in 2017 for a $26MM signing bonus. Robert has since destroyed minor league pitching, including during a 2019 campaign in which he earned his first promotion to Triple-A ball. He batted .297/.341/.634 (136 wRC+) with 16 home runs in 223 plate appearances at that level, though his strikeout and walk rates were below average (24.7% K, 4.9% BB). Robert’s production was enough to convince the White Sox to make yet another sizable investment in him. This past January, they inked Robert to a six-year, $50MM guarantee – a record for a player with no major league service time (the move has gone over quite well). The deal paved the way for Robert to begin as the White Sox’s center fielder in 2020, if a season actually happens.

Adell, meanwhile, probably won’t open 2020 on the Angels’ roster, but it might not be long before he forces his way up and takes the reins in right field. He may be able to play all three outfield spots, but the team already has Justin Upton in left and pretty good player named Mike Trout in center. Before Adell gets to Anaheim, the soon-to-be 21-year-old – who became an Angel when they chose him 10th overall in 2017 – will likely have to improve his production in Triple-A. Adell had little to no success there last season, hitting .264/.321/.355 (67 wRC+) with no homers, a 32.6 percent strikeout rate and a 7.6 walk rate over 132 PA, but that doesn’t take away from the fact that he has been extraordinarily productive in the minors. It was only a year ago, for instance, that Adell returned from early season hamstring and ankle injuries to bat .308/.390/.553 (173 wRC+) across 182 PA in Double-A, thereby earning a promotion.

Baseball America regards both Robert and Adell as potential franchise players in the making. Robert obviously has the Triple-A track record on his side, but that doesn’t mean he’ll end up as the more valuable major leaguer. If we’re to believe prospect experts, you really can’t lose between the two of them, but which one would you rather bet on going forward?

(Poll link for app users)

Which prospect would you rather have?

  • Luis Robert 60% (2,941)
  • Jo Adell 40% (1,950)

Total votes: 4,891

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AJ Reed Announces Retirement

By | at March 31, 2020 8:35am CDT

In news that slipped under the radar when it was announced, former top Astros prospect AJ Reed has announced his retirement. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle highlights the decision and analyzes it from the perspective of his former organization.

Reed, a former second-round pick, was once considered one of the game’s premium hitting prospects. He showed an intriguing blend of power and patience on his way up the farm. Reed generally made loud contact and plenty of it, with hefty batting averages on balls in play and unconcerning strikeout rates.

When he debuted with the ‘Stros in 2016, Reed seemed quite likely to hit in the majors. After all, he mashed at every level on his way there. The real question was whether he’d do so enough to be a highly valuable player, given his limitations on the field (first base only) and on the bases.

As it turns out, there was a bigger problem lurking. Reed’s strikeout rate had ticked up a bit at Triple-A in 2016. It exploded in the majors. As it turned out, he’d end up taking 199 total plate appearances at the game’s highest level, carrying a 14.2% swinging-strike rate and 35.7% strikeout rate. Reed’s power stroke never played, either. All told, his career batting line sits at an awful .149/.241/.234.

The Astros gave Reed lengthy stints at Triple-A in hopes he’d find his groove. While he was still an above-average hitter there in 2017 and 2018, the trajectory didn’t trend back up. Per Rome, “his weight and conditioning were often problems.” The Houston ultimately gave up hope last year after watching Reed struggle at the highest level of the minors.

Reed landed with the White Sox on a waiver claim, with the rebuilding organization hoping a change of scenery might help. Instead, he struck out in more than four of every ten plate appearances he took at the MLB and Triple-A levels. Reed was outrighted from the 40-man roster in August.

Despite the obvious difficulties, it remains a bit surprising to see Reed hang up his spikes at just 26 years of age. No doubt some organization would’ve been willing to invest resources in hopes of spurring a turnaround. Then again, it’s understandable that Reed would prefer to move on after experiencing such a frustrating turn of fortunes. MLBTR wishes him the best in his future pursuits.

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