- The Blue Jays are generally viewed as one of two frontrunners in the race to sign George Springer (the Mets being the other). With that in mind, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith examines the outfielder’s free agent market. The general expectation entering the offseason had been that Springer would receive a five-year deal in the $100MM – $125MM range. (The MLBTR staff forecasted five years, $125MM). However, Nicholson-Smith feels Springer’s eventual price point may come in well north of those initial estimates. As he points out, Springer’s productivity with the Astros isn’t dissimilar from that of Anthony Rendon with the Nationals. Nearly two years older than Rendon was at this time last year, Springer won’t match the latter’s seven-year term. But Nicholson-Smith speculates that an average annual value approaching Rendon’s $35MM per year salary could be in play for Springer on a five-year contract.
Blue Jays Rumors
Pirates, Indians Showed Past Trade Interest In Alejandro Kirk
Alejandro Kirk’s bat has drawn a lot of attention over his three pro seasons, including a 2020 MLB debut that saw the Blue Jays catcher post a .983 OPS over his first 25 plate appearances as a big leaguer. As one might expect, rival teams have taken notice of Kirk, with TSN’s Scott Mitchell reporting that the Pirates and Indians have both tried to acquire the catcher within the last 14 months.
Cleveland wanted Kirk in a potential Corey Kluber trade with the Jays last offseason, prior to the deal that saw Kluber sent to Texas for Delino DeShields Jr., Emmanuel Clase and the Rangers agreeing to absorb all of Kluber’s $17.5MM salary for the 2020 season. The Pirates’ interest was more recent, as Mitchell notes that the Bucs “tried to pry him away” from Toronto just this past summer.
The Blue Jays and Pirates were known to be in discussions over such pitchers as Trevor Williams, Chad Kuhl, and Joe Musgrove prior to the trade deadline, with a trade for Musgrove reportedly falling through at the veritable last minute. Since Pittsburgh GM Ben Cherington came to the job after working in Toronto’s front office, it isn’t surprising that the rebuilding Pirates and the aggressive Blue Jays are often mentioned as potential trade partners. Musgrove is still a hot commodity on the trade market, and with the Jays still looking to add pitching, a deal could certainly still come together between the two sides before the offseason is through.
Likewise, the past Cleveland ties of Jays president Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins have seemingly put the Blue Jays in mind when discussing any potential Indians trade chip. To name one prominent example, Toronto has had interest in Francisco Lindor for well over a year, and Lindor still looms as a potential acquisition given the widespread expectation that the Tribe will deal the shortstop prior to Opening Day.
Whether Kirk could be part of a future deal to Cleveland or Pittsburgh remains in question, however. Mitchell believes the Jays will hang onto Kirk to see if he could be a reliable regular in 2021, both catching and as a DH against left-handed pitching. Danny Jansen is Toronto’s incumbent starter behind the plate, with Reese McGuire and prospects Gabriel Moreno and Riley Adams also on hand to give the Blue Jays quite a bit of major and minor league depth at the position — as Mitchell writes, one of the catchers “will be traded this year, it just won’t be Kirk.” Of course, should the Jays make the big splash to sign free agent target J.T. Realmuto, it would seem likely that multiple catchers (perhaps including Kirk) would be shopped.
MLBTR Poll: Who Will Sign Tomoyuki Sugano?
Tomoyuki Sugano arrived in the United States two days ago, according to The Hochi News (Japanese language link), as the right-hander and his agent Joel Wolfe plan for the final few days of Sugano’s 30-day posting window. January 7 is the final day of that posting period, and with at least six MLB teams known to have interest in Sugano’s services, the odds seem to be in favor of Sugano pitching in the big leagues in 2021.
A move to North America is not guaranteed, however. As noted in that Hochi News item, Sugano said earlier this month that he hadn’t yet fully decided on whether or not to make the jump to Major League Baseball, with the COVID-19 pandemic weighing as a factor in his decision. As we just saw yesterday with outfielder Haruki Nishikawa, it isn’t uncommon for Japanese players to reach the end of their 30-day posting period without having reached a deal with any MLB teams.
Beyond that uncertainty, it’s also possible that Sugano’s market has been somewhat reduced in number. Of the six teams linked to Sugano in rumors, two have made other significant pitching additions that may have removed them from the running. The Rangers already made one foray into the Japanese pitching market by signing Kohei Arihara to a two-year, $6.2MM contract. The Padres, of course, dominated headlines by swinging a pair of blockbuster trades for Yu Darvish and Blake Snell, and now headlines a rotation mix that also includes Dinelson Lamet, Chris Paddack, Adrian Morejon, Joey Lucchesi, and several impressive younger arms.
This isn’t to say that Texas or San Diego wouldn’t still have interest in Sugano, of course. Even with Arihara’s signing, the Rangers could still conceivably add to their rotation considering that Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, and Kolby Allard all struggled in 2020. As for the Padres, they’re so clearly in win-now mode that they might see Sugano as another key piece for what they hope is a World Series contender. Adding another starting candidate serves as a further guard should Lamet have an injury setback, and it could allow the Padres to potentially float one of their younger arms as a trade chip in another trade.
The Red Sox also made a recent pitching addition in Matt Andriese, but while Andriese will be given a crack at a starting job, he might end up as a reliever or perhaps a swingman. Boston has enough questions in its rotation that signing Sugano would make sense even if Andriese did end up as a starter. Likewise, the Giants have retained Kevin Gausman via the qualifying offer and signed Anthony DeSclafani since the start of the offseason, but San Francisco’s pitching staff would certainly still use further reinforcement.
The Blue Jays and Mets have respectively been linked to almost every free agent this offseason, so it isn’t surprising that they’re both in on Sugano. Whether Sugano would be either team’s final major pitching addition is the question, as a case could be made that both Toronto and New York have enough arms on hand, or that another notable hurler (perhaps even Trevor Bauer) is required to really turn either rotation into a big plus.
With these options in mind, it’s time to open the floor to the MLBTR readership. Where do you think Sugano will pitch in 2021? (poll link for app users)
Haruki Nishikawa Not Expected To Sign With MLB Team This Offseason
3:45 pm: Nishikawa will not reach an agreement with an MLB club before this afternoon’s 4:00 pm CST deadline, per a report from Yahoo! Japan (link in Japanese). He’ll instead return to the Fighters for a tenth season in 2021.
10:52 am: In early December, the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters made center fielder Haruki Nishikawa available to major league teams via the posting system. That opened a 30-day window for MLB clubs to work out an agreement with Nishikawa; otherwise, the 28-year-old would return to the Fighters for at least another season.
Today marks the final day of Nishikawa’s posting window, as was first noted last month by Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). While no one knows if the left-handed hitter will put pen to paper in the coming hours, it seems he has attracted the attention of a few MLB teams. Japan’s Nikkan Sports reported earlier this week (Japanese-language link) that the Astros, Blue Jays, Cardinals and Diamondbacks were among those with interest in the outfielder. It isn’t clear if any of those four (or any other MLB club) has actually put forth a formal offer, however.
Over parts of nine seasons at Japan’s highest level, Nishikawa has hit .286/.382/.394. He’s coming off a very strong 2020 seasons with the Fighters, wherein he slashed .306/.430/.396 with more walks than strikeouts across 523 plate appearances. Nishikawa has never been much of a power threat, but he’s consistently hit for high batting averages and drawn plenty of walks.
If Nishikawa were to come to an agreement with an MLB team, the signing team would owe a release fee to the Fighters. That fee, which comes on top of the contract paid to the player himself, is equal to 20 percent of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5 percent of the next $25MM and 15 percent of any dollars thereafter. Nishikawa’s track record in NPB is lesser than that of countryman Shogo Akiyama, who inked a three-year, $21MM deal with the Reds last winter. It’d be a surprise to see Nishikawa top that mark, so in all likelihood his posting fee will fall squarely into that first tier, 20-percent bracket. Nishikawa’s former Fighters teammate, right-hander Kohei Arihara, signed with the Rangers last week.
Trevor Bauer Had Meeting With Blue Jays
In the latest chapter of Trevor Bauer’s unconventional trip through free agency, the right-hander revealed in a video that he had a call set to talk with the Blue Jays — specifically mentioning that he planned to talk with their pitching coach (Pete Walker) and high performance coach (presumably VP of high performance Angus Mugford).
While many fans have had some fun with the fact that the Blue Jays have been linked to virtually every free agent on the market this winter, Bauer’s meeting with them is still plenty notable. Few clubs are expected to be major spenders this winter, but Toronto is among the likeliest teams to sign a major free agent. The Blue Jays’ current $84MM projected payroll (via FanGraphs/Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez) is about half the franchise-record $163MM, set back in 2017.
Beyond that flexibility, the Toronto front office — headed up by president Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins — is quite familiar with Bauer. Both Atkins and Shapiro were in the Indians organization when Cleveland originally acquired Bauer from the Diamondbacks; Shapiro was the team’s president at that point and Atkins the director of player development.
Among top-tier free agents, the Blue Jays have been most prominently linked to outfielder George Springer in recent weeks. The Jays reported to be one of two finalists to sign Springer. The Mets, the other apparent Springer finalist, have been tied to Bauer in their own right, although Springer is said to be New York’s priority at this time.
Toronto’s current rotation features Hyun Jin Ryu, Robbie Ray, Tanner Roark, Ross Stripling and highly touted 24-year-old Nate Pearson. Penciling Bauer into that mix alongside Ryu would give them a formidable one-two punch atop the rotation with plenty of upside behind them. Ryu is coming off consecutive Top 3 finishes in Cy Young voting, while Bauer of course won the National League Cy Young Award in 2020.
Latest On George Springer’s Asking Price
9:20pm: Springer has offers in hand north of $100MM, according to a tweet from Jon Heyman of MLB Network. Those bids nevertheless remain well shy of the veteran’s asking price, per the report.
3:47pm: The Mets and Blue Jays have been known to be the strongest suitors for free agent slugger George Springer for weeks, but Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News takes that notion a bit further, reporting that the Mets and Jays are the two “final clubs” bidding on Springer in free agency.
That, however, doesn’t necessarily mean a decision from Springer is nigh. Springer isn’t expected to sign until January, Thosar writes. While that technically could mean as soon as Friday, SNY’s Andy Martino writes that many involved in the bidding expect that Springer’s free agency could drag “well” into next month. Per Martino, the Mets and Springer aren’t yet close to a deal, and Springer’s camp is still seeking more than $150MM in guaranteed money.
In all likelihood, a $150MM+ contract would make Springer the top paid position player of the winter — possibly the top paid free agent overall. Such a contract could take multiple shapes; clubs more concerned about maintaining year-over-year flexibility could opt for a six-year pact in the $25MM-per-year range, or a team less concerned about approaching the luxury threshold could up the annual rate to around $30MM per year on a five-year term. Given the Blue Jays’ affordable young core, they seem less likely to be concerned with the luxury barrier than the Mets, who have several expensive stars already scattered about the roster.
Notably, Martino suggests that the Mets “might be willing to approach” the $150MM mark to secure Springer, although it’s likely telling to some extent that the two sides aren’t yet close to a deal in spite of that willingness. The Mets and the Blue Jays are considered to be two of the market’s most aggressive buyers this winter, and their reported interests carry some overlap beyond Springer; both have been linked to DJ LeMahieu, and both were tied to J.T. Realmuto — although the Mets are obviously out of that market now after signing James McCann to a four-year, $40.6MM contract.
Reports surrounding the two clubs seem to paint the Mets as the aggressor in the Springer market. New York is said to be focused on the longtime Astros center fielder as its top target, while the Jays remain linked to a bevy of top-tier free agents, including Springer, LeMahieu, Realmuto and Trevor Bauer. Both the Mets and the Blue Jays have also been rumored as possible landing spots when Francisco Lindor is ultimately traded.
Springer has raked at career-high rates over the past two seasons, posting a combined .284/.376/.576 batting line with 53 home runs, 26 doubles and five triples in 173 games and 778 plate appearances. Both Toronto and New York have somewhat crowded outfield pictures as it is, but either could move some pieces around to accommodate an impact bat of Springer’s caliber. Since Opening Day 2019, Springer has been 53 percent better than a league-average bat, by measure of wRC+. Only six players in that time top his mark of 153: Mike Trout, Nelson Cruz, Alex Bregman, Christian Yelich, Juan Soto and Anthony Rendon.
Padres Seen As Front-Runners For Ha-Seong Kim
9:41am: Sherman now tweets that the Padres are viewed as the favorites for Kim. A deal has not yet been completed, but the two sides have discussed a $7-8MM annual value over a term fewer than six years. If a deal is completed, Kim would step in at second base, with Cronenworth likely moving into the outfield.
9:18am: Kim is on a flight to the United States this morning, per Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency. While Daniel Kim of DKTV and ESPN tweets that Kim is headed to the U.S. to take a physical, that doesn’t mean he’s selected a team just yet. Kim needs to be present to complete a physical prior to his posting window closing, so it makes sense that he’s headed to North America at this time.
Meanwhile, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Blue Jays and Padres are considered to be front-runners for Kim, with the Red Sox still looming as a possible but less-likely destination. The Mets and Reds have been “intrigued” by Kim, Sherman adds, but aren’t viewed as favorites to sign him.
8:55am: It’s been less than 12 hours since the Padres agreed to their blockbuster acquisition of Blake Snell in a trade with the Rays, but it seems that’s not the only major roster move general manager A.J. Preller hopes to complete before the New Year. ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that San Diego is “taking a serious run” at free-agent infielder Ha-Seong Kim, who was posted for Major League clubs by the Korea Baseball Organization’s Kiwoom Heroes.
Unlike most stars who are posted for MLB teams to bid on, Kim is squarely in the midst of his prime years. The 25-year-old has been a steady contributor for the Heroes throughout his career but has seen his offensive output explode over the past two seasons, even as the KBO has altered the composition of its ball in an effort to cut back on the league’s extremely hitter-friendly tendencies. Since 2019, Kim has batted .307/.393/.500 with 49 home runs, 62 doubles, three triples and a 56-for-62 showing in stolen base attempts.
The Padres, of course, don’t have a pressing need for an infielder thanks to the presence of Manny Machado at third base, Fernando Tatis Jr. at shortstop and emergent Jake Cronenworth at second base. Kim, however, has experience at both shortstop and third base, and he’s viewed as a perfectly viable option at second base as well. He could give the Padres — or another club — a versatile super-utility piece who allows them rest their regular infielders a day per week or step into a larger role in the case of an injury. It’s also worth noting that Cronenworth, excellent 2020 debut notwithstanding, still has just 194 Major League plate appearances under his belt.
There’s no clear front-runner for Kim at this point, although his market is nearing its conclusion. His 30-day posting period began on Dec. 2 and must be concluded by Jan. 1 at 5pm ET. The Blue Jays have made an offer of at least five years, and reports out of South Korea have indicated that he has multiple five-year offers in hand. It’s not clear whether the Padres have made a five-year proposal, but chatter surrounding Kim figures to pick up steam over the next few days as bidding for his services draws to a close.
Blue Jays Have Reportedly Made Offer To Ha-Seong Kim
The Blue Jays are among the teams that have made an offer to free agent infielder Ha-Seong Kim, reports Daniel Kim of ESPN (Twitter link). It’s said to be a proposal of at least five years in length. Daniel Kim reported earlier this week that Ha-Seong Kim was mulling multiple five-year offers.
Kim can play anywhere in the infield and has raked over six-plus seasons in the Korea Baseball Organization. Last season, he hit .306/.397/.523 with 30 home runs in 622 plate appearances for the Kiwoom Heroes. The club posted him earlier this month. MLB teams have until January 1 to work out a deal.
Because of his youth, Kim could appeal to rebuilding and contending clubs alike. The Blue Jays are looking to cement themselves as part of the latter group and have been connected to nearly every high-profile free agent and trade candidate this winter. Toronto has an obvious need for an everyday infielder to join Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on the dirt. Were Kim to sign with the Jays, they could plug him directly into their gap at third base, or he could take over at shortstop and bump Bichette to the vacant infield position. At the start of the offseason, the MLBTR staff ranked Kim the #7 available free agent and projected a five-year, $40MM contract.
Transaction Retrospection: Teoscar Hernandez Trade
Few players raised their stock more this past season than Teoscar Hernández. A competent but unspectacular hitter from 2018-19, Hernández had what looked like a breakout in 2020. Over 207 plate appearances, the Blue Jay outfielder hit .289/.340/.579 with 16 home runs. Along the way, he ranked in the 94th percentile or better in such Statcast metrics as average exit velocity, hard contact, expected weighted on-base average and barrel rate.
Hernández isn’t a flawless player. He’s a below-average defender. He has long had issues making contact, with a career 31.6% strikeout rate only marginally higher than last year’s 30.4%. Moving forward, the 28-year-old looks more like a solid regular than a star in the making. Regardless, Hernández is a valuable and important part of a Toronto roster coming off a berth in the expanded playoffs and looking on the verge of perennial postseason contention.
With that in mind, it’s worth looking back at the deal that landed Hernández with the Jays in the first place. Originally signed as an international amateur by the Astros, Hernández was flipped (alongside veteran outfielder Nori Aoki) to Toronto in advance of the 2017 trade deadline for left-hander Francisco Liriano. To that point, the veteran southpaw had posted just a 5.88 ERA as a starter for the Blue Jays. He had stifled opposing left-handed hitters, though, holding them to a .230/.254/.361 slash line.
The Houston front office thought a bullpen transition, where Liriano could be heavily leveraged against same-handed batters, could make him an asset. With George Springer, Josh Reddick, Derek Fisher and Jake Marisnick all on hand (and Kyle Tucker rapidly climbing the minor-league ladder), the Astros felt they could part with an MLB-ready outfield prospect to acquire a relief weapon. Unfortunately, Liriano continued to scuffle down the stretch, pitching to a 4.40 ERA with an 11:10 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 14.1 relief innings as an Astro.
Despite mediocre production from Liriano, the Astros went on to win the World Series. However one feels about the legitimacy of that title after subsequent revelations of Houston’s sign-stealing operation, the team probably wouldn’t undo any specific transaction related to the roster in retrospect. But from a pure value perspective, there’s no question Toronto came out ahead in the swap. Aoki barely played for the team, but Hernández looks to have emerged as a capable everyday performer as the Jays’ new contention window opens. He remains under club control through 2023.
The Case For J.T. Realmuto Signing With The Blue Jays
The Giants are the latest team to be connected to Tomoyuki Sugano, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets that San Francisco is keeping an eye on the right-hander’s market. This makes at least six teams known to have interest in Sugano, as the Giants join the Mets, Red Sox, Padres, Blue Jays, and Rangers. Notably, Morosi omitted the Rangers from his list, so it could be that Texas is out of the running for Sugano after signing Kohei Arihara.
- The Blue Jays have been seemingly connected to just about every major free agent, yet The Toronto Star’s Gregor Chisholm makes the “bold prediction” that J.T. Realmuto will ultimately land with the team. There’s some process-of-elimination logic here, as Chisholm feels that George Springer will sign with the Mets and DJ LeMahieu will re-sign with the Yankees, leaving the Jays without either of what seem to be their top two targets. From Realmuto’s perspective, the Mets’ deal with James McCann may have already eliminated the most likely candidate for his services, as it isn’t yet clear if other potential suitors like the Phillies or Nationals are willing to meet Realmuto’s asking price. With Realmuto in the fold, Toronto could then use its young catching surplus as trade chips to address other needs.
