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Astros Acquire Carlos Correa

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Carlos Correa is coming home to play third base.  The Twins have agreed to trade Correa to the Astros, according to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, and Jon Morosi of MLB Network says he’ll man the hot corner for Houston.  Pitching prospect Matt Mikulski is going to Minnesota, according to Chandler Rome of The Athletic.  Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Twins are paying down $33MM of the approximate $103.4MM remaining on Correa’s deal.  The trade is now official.

The idea of the Astros bringing Correa back into the fold first surfaced yesterday in a report from Nightengale.  Rome and Dan Hayes of The Athletic went on to report that the Astros approached the Twins with the concept of bringing back Correa, a favorite of owner Jim Crane.

With $103.4MM remaining on Correa’s contract through 2028, reporting today suggested that the two clubs were too far apart on dollars to consummate a deal.  However, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports, the teams bridged their financial gap, Correa waived his no-trade clause, and the deal was resuscitated.  As Correa told McTaggart, “I let them know there was only one team I would allow that to happen.”

The Astros and Crane have a history of letting star players depart for longer free agent deals elsewhere.  In this case, Correa left after the 2021 season.  Nearly three years later third baseman Alex Bregman turned down the Astros’ overtures and landed in Boston, after the club had already landed his replacement in Isaac Paredes (acquired from the Cubs in part because the Astros knew they couldn’t win the bidding on Kyle Tucker).  Paredes tore his hamstring on July 19th, which may be season-ending.

Jeremy Peña has flourished in Correa’s absence, making his first All-Star team this year after hitting the IL in late June for a fractured rib.  Peña could rejoin the Astros tomorrow in Boston, playing next to his predecessor on the left side of the infield against Bregman and the Red Sox.  The Astros had picked up Ramon Urias from Baltimore last night, a move that paled in comparison to the division-rival Mariners adding Eugenio Suarez.  Now with Correa, Urias will be pushed into a utility role that could include time at second base.

Correa, 31 in September, owns an uninspiring 97 wRC+ in 364 plate appearances this year for the Twins.  His Twins career has been up-and-down in that regard, with a stellar 136 wRC+ in 2022, a down year in ’23, and a career-best 155 mark last year.

Correa played in only 86 games for the Twins in 2024, missing time due to an intercostal strain and plantar fasciitis.  He spent time on the seven-day concussion list in May this year, but has otherwise avoided the IL despite some minor injuries.

Injuries have long been part of the story for Correa, who was drafted first overall by the Astros in 2012.  He played 110 or fewer games in 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2024, so he had a four-year run of good health encompassing his multiple free agencies.

Despite his injury history, Correa has been worth 3.7 WAR in seven separate seasons.  He won the AL Rookie of the Year in 2015, made his first All-Star team and garnered MVP votes in 2017, made another All-Star team and finished fifth in the MVP voting in 2021, and made a third All-Star game with the Twins last year.  Certainly Correa’s 2017 performance and the Astros’ championship are tarnished by the sign-stealing scandal, but the star players involved have largely been able to move on with minimal effects aside from perhaps extra boos from certain fanbases.

Correa has been a regular on the pages of MLBTR, perhaps beginning with that sign-stealing scandal in late 2019.  Though Correa suffered some reputational damage for cheating at the time, his first run at free agency seemed largely unaffected.  Hewing to their organizational philosophy on long-term contracts, the Astros topped out at a five-year, $160MM offer, even though Correa was heading into his age-27 season.

Though some major free agents such as Corey Seager signed before the 99-day 2021-22 lockout, Correa did not.  Correa switched to the Boras Corporation during the lockout, and “settled” for a three-year, $105.3MM deal with the Twins in March 2022 with opt-out clauses after each season.  After an excellent debut season with the Twins, Correa opted out as expected, but his second run at free agency was anything but easy.

Correa agreed to a 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants in December 2022, which shockingly fell apart after his physical revealed concerns over his right leg.  Correa then agreed to play third base for the Mets on a 12-year, $315MM deal, only to have that deal fall apart for similar reasons.  That led to a January 2023 reunion with the Twins on a six-year, $200MM deal, ending one of the wildest free agencies this website has ever seen.

As Rome and Hayes wrote recently, “Though the Twins are enamored with Correa, believing he’s a difference-maker on the field, the team’s financial picture has changed drastically in the 30 months since he signed his six-year deal. The club has been up for sale since October, which is limiting how much the team can spend on players. Correa’s salary represents 25 percent of the Twins’ current $141 million payroll.”

Now, Correa will return to Houston and play a position other than shortstop for the first time in his 11-year MLB career.  He told McTaggart, “We were waiting for a shortstop to come in [with Twins] and now that I get to play third base, it will be great for me at this stage of my career.”  Whether Paredes moves to the right side of the infield next year or becomes offseason trade bait remains to be seen.

Correa is owed $103.4MM through 2028, which would represent a $31.4MM CBT hit for the Astros.  Given the approximate $33MM the Twins are kicking in, we estimate the Astros’ CBT hit to be around $21MM.  Future reporting will surely confirm the figure.  The Astros’ CBT payroll sits just below the $241MM threshold, so this trade easily vaults Houston into second-time tax payor status.  The trade has echoes of one the Astros made two years ago, when they re-acquired Justin Verlander after letting him go to the Mets via free agency.

Known to be seeking a left-handed bat, the Astros nonetheless added Urias and Correa within a short span at the deadline.  But shortly after landing Correa, they finally did get a lefty stick in the Marlins’ Jesus Sanchez.  Clearly in go-for-it mode, GM Dana Brown pursued the Padres’ Dylan Cease as well, but that did not come to fruition.

While the Astros have added to their first-place team, the 51-57 Twins have conducted a full-on fire sale.  Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey traded a whopping 10 players off his active roster in July, including both rentals and controllable players.

This post was originally published at 3:05pm central time.

Rays, Twins Swap Griffin Jax For Taj Bradley

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The Rays and Twins orchestrated a fascinating one-for-one swap at the deadline. Minnesota traded setup man Griffin Jax to Tampa Bay for young starting pitcher Taj Bradley.

Jax, 30, is one of a staggering five relievers whom the Twins traded in the past two days. He followed Jhoan Duran, Brock Stewart, Danny Coulombe and Louis Varland out the door. Minnesota dismantled what had been one of the best bullpens in the game. Of course, that doesn’t even address their biggest deal of the day.

A former third-round pick out of Air Force, Jax has developed into a high-end reliever. This year’s 4.50 ERA may not reflect that, but he misses bats an elite rate. Jax has punched out 36.4% of opposing hitters while running a 19.5% swinging strike rate. He ranks comfortably among the top 10 relievers in MLB in both categories. Jax posted very similar underlying numbers across 72 appearances a year ago. Last season’s ERA reflected that dominance, as he turned in a 2.03 mark through 71 innings.

Opposing hitters have a .389 average on balls in play against Jax. That’s the highest against any pitcher in MLB with at least 40 innings. Jax had allowed a sub-.300 BABIP in each of the previous three seasons. This season’s mark is a clear outlier, and teams continue to view him as a weapon at the back of the bullpen. Jax has the ability to run his fastball to 97 MPH on average, but his best two offerings are his sweeper and changeup. It’s a plus three-pitch mix.

Jax joins Pete Fairbanks, Bryan Baker and Garrett Cleavinger towards the back of a revamped Tampa Bay bullpen. He’s likely to work in a setup role in front of Fairbanks for the remainder of the season. The Rays opted not to trade their closer despite what appeared to be significant interest. Fairbanks could be the subject of trade chatter again during the offseason. If Tampa Bay pulls the trigger on a deal at that point, Jax would have a good chance of stepping into the ninth inning.

The Rays control Jax for two seasons beyond this one. He’s playing on a $2.365MM salary in his first arbitration year. Duran kept him from accruing many saves in Minnesota that would’ve built his arbitration earnings. He’ll likely land a salary in the $4-5MM range next season and could get between $6-8MM for his final run through the process. Tampa Bay straddled the line between buying and selling this summer, but they didn’t abandon hope of erasing what is currently a three-game deficit in the Wild Card picture. Even if they don’t make the playoffs, they’ll have Jax for another couple seasons.

It’s appealing enough that the Rays were willing to move on from Bradley. A former top prospect, the 6’2″ righty has held a rotation spot in Tampa Bay for most of the past three seasons. He has never really put it all together, allowing an ERA of 4.11 or higher in each season. Home runs were the biggest culprit over the first two years, but he missed bats at plus rates with league average control. It has been a different story in 2025. Bradley’s strikeout rate has dropped to a career-low 20.2% as he’s getting fewer swinging strikes. He has upped his ground-ball rate and gotten the longball under control, but his 4.61 ERA across 21 starts is right in line with his career mark.

Around the All-Star Break, it was reported that the Rays were open to offers on Bradley. It seemed clear that he’d fallen out of favor when they optioned him to Triple-A last week after he gave up four runs without escaping the second inning against the White Sox. That didn’t mean they’d trade him for whatever they could get, of course, but there was presumably a growing frustration with Bradley’s inconsistent results. Tampa Bay traded a pair of starting pitchers in Bradley and Zack Littell, but they’re giving the former’s rotation spot to hard-throwing righty Joe Boyle. They replaced the latter by acquiring Adrian Houser from the White Sox.

Coaxing more out of Bradley now falls on the Twins. He figures to return to the rotation in Minnesota. He’ll slot behind Joe Ryan, Zebby Matthews and eventually Pablo López in the starting staff. Minnesota also landed talented rookie right-hander Mick Abel from the Phillies in the Duran return. They’re clearly looking ahead to a 2026 season that might be under new ownership and hoping to build around young starting pitching.

Bradley may not have had sustained MLB success, but it’s easy to see the appeal. Controllable starting pitching is the most difficult asset to acquire. Minnesota has Bradley under team control for four seasons after this one. He has a four-pitch mix led by a 96 MPH fastball with the command to start. If the Twins can marry this year’s batted ball results with the swing-and-miss ability he has shown in prior seasons, Bradley would be a more valuable long-term asset than a reliever — even one as good as Jax.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Rays were acquiring Jax. Dan Hayes of The Athletic had Bradley’s return. Images courtesy of Lon Howedel and Jonathan Dyer, Imagn Images.

Red Sox “Not Even Close” In Late Joe Ryan Trade Talks

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11:09PM: The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey provides a few more details on the Ryan negotiations, and top-100 outfield prospect Jhostynxon Garcia “was in the mix to be in the deal.”  Overall, however, the Red Sox weren’t willing to give up more of their highest-rated prospects, and weren’t willing to trade any outfielders from their Major League roster.

5:10PM: Ryan isn’t heading to Boston, as MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo hears from a source that the two sides were “not even close” to completing a trade.

4:42PM: After missing out on Merrill Kelly, the Red Sox are making a late push for Minnesota’s Joe Ryan, reports Jon Morosi of MLB Network. Francys Romero suggests the Twins are seen as likely to deal the right-hander amidst what has become a shockingly big sell-off.

Aside from the usual rental players, the Twins have dealt one of the game’s best relievers in Jhoan Duran and their most expensive player in Carlos Correa.  With less than 20 minutes remaining until the deadline, could they move one of the game’s better starting pitchers in Ryan?  The 29-year-old owns a 2.82 ERA and 23.8 K-BB% in 121 1/3 innings and is under team control through 2027.

The Red Sox shockingly traded Rafael Devers to the Giants in June, but they’re still in position to secure a Wild Card spot.  Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow has taken a few big swings but has thus far only landed Steven Matz.

Cubs Acquire Willi Castro

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The Cubs have landed utilityman Willi Castro from the Twins, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post.  Minnesota will receive multiple prospects in return, and ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers specifies those players as minor league pitchers Ryan Gallagher and Sam Armstrong.

The switch-hitting Castro can play all over the diamond, but he’ll surely get most of his playing time in Chicago at third base.  The Cubs haven’t gotten much from the position all season, even though top prospect Matt Shaw has been on fire since the All-Star break.  Shaw could continue to get at-bats as long as he continues to hit, with Castro spelling him on occasion and moving into more of a regular role if Shaw comes back to earth.

Since coming to Minnesota as a free agent in the 2022-23 offseason, Castro has hit .250/.335/.398 over 1388 plate appearances and played at every position on the field except catcher and first base.  Beyond just being a plug-and-play fill-in for the Twins’ many injuries over the years, Castro forced his way into more of a regular role with his solid hitting both sides of the plate, and a 34-steal season in 2023.  That havoc on the basepaths may have been a one-year outlier (he is 23-of-35 in steal attempts over the last two seasons), but Castro is nevertheless a solid all-around contributor.

Castro is also inexpensive, as the Cubs will owe him roughly $2MM for the remainder of the 2025 season before the utilityman enters free agency this winter.  Between his salary, rental status, and ability to fit into pretty much any roster, Castro drew a lot of buzz as the deadline approached, with such teams as the Astros, Yankees, and Mariners listed as known suitors.

This interest allowed the Twins to land two pitching prospects for a rental player.  MLB Pipeline ranks Gallagher as the eighth-best prospect in the Chicago farm system, while Armstrong just barely cracked Baseball America’s preseason Cubs ranking in the 30th spot on the list.  This duo will join the haul of young talent Minnesota received as part of their enormous deadline-day selloff.

Gallagher was a sixth-round pick in the 2024 draft, and he has already reached the Double-A Knoxville in his first pro season.  Gallagher has a 3.43 ERA, 28.2% strikeout rate, and 5.9% walk rate over 84 combined innings at the high-A and Double-A levels, with 11 1/3 of those frames coming in Knoxville.  His top two pitches are a changeup and a fastball, with the latter pitch standing out for its “quality induced vertical break and command” (according to Pipeline’s scouting report) moreso than velocity in the 90-93 mph range.

Armstrong was a 13th-round pick for Chicago in 2023, and he has a 4.62 ERA, 19.3% strikeout rate, and 8.3% walk rate in 89 2/3 innings in Knoxville this season.  BA’s scouting report says Armstrong has “a kitchen sink’s worth of pitches” but perhaps not a true signature pitch among his six offerings, as his slider gets the highest grade with a relatively modest 50.  Armstrong has posted some good grounder rates across his minor league career, but it would seem he might have trouble continually fooling batters without premium stuff.

Blue Jays Acquire Louis Varland, Ty France

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The Blue Jays acquired reliever Louis Varland and first baseman Ty France from the Twins, according to Mitch Bannon of The Athletic.  Lefty Kendry Rojas and outfielder Alan Roden will head to the Twins in the deal, adds Bannon.  The trade is now official.

The Twins went well beyond expectations as sellers at the 2025 deadline, having also dealt Carlos Correa, Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Willi Castro, Danny Coulombe, Brock Stewart, Harrison Bader, and Chris Paddack.

Varland qualifies as an unexpected trade, given that he’s under team control through 2030.  The Twins dealt all five of their high-leverage relievers this month, Varland included.  The 27-year-old righty is in the midst of a breakout season, spending the entire year in the Twins’ bullpen and posting a 2.02 ERA in 49 innings.  That’s come with a 23.9 K%, 6.6 BB%, and greatly improved 54.5% groundball rate.  Working entirely as a reliever, Varland’s fastball velocity has soared to an average of 98.1 miles per hour.

The Blue Jays landed five-plus years of what looks like a very good setup man in Varland, though they could consider moving him back to the rotation in the future.  Varland comes from strong bloodlines, as his older brother Gus has pitched in the Majors for the Brewers, Dodgers, and White Sox.  Louis was drafted by the Twins in the 15th round in 2019 out of Concordia University in St. Paul, Minnesota.

Varland made his MLB debut in 2022, and began last season as a member of the Twins’ rotation.  That lasted only five turns, plus some spot starts.  By September of last year, Varland had moved into more of a traditional relief role, and has since found his first sustained MLB success.

Given that Varland won’t even be arbitration eligible until 2027, the Blue Jays have plenty of time to decide his long-term role.  They will have some rotation openings next year given the impending free agencies of Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt, and Eric Lauer.  For now, Varland can slot in alongside new bullpen addition Seranthony Dominguez behind closer Jeff Hoffman.

France, 31, joined the Twins in February on a $1MM free agent deal.  He’s logged the vast majority of the Twins’ innings at first base this year, posting a subpar 92 wRC+ in 387 plate appearances.  A righty batter, France has not done particularly well against lefties or righties over the last two seasons.  With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. locked in at first base and George Springer (and perhaps eventually Anthony Santander) typically handling DH duties, France seems set for a modest bench role in Toronto.

The Twins and their fans are left to pick up the pieces after president of baseball operations Derek Falvey traded 10 players this month.  Rojas, a 22-year-old who signed out of Cuba for $215K in 2020, made the jump to Triple-A yesterday.  Baseball America labeled him a 50-grade high risk prospect, saying he “shows starter traits with a deep arsenal of average-or-better pitches and command.”  Rojas has made 10 starts this year across four minor league levels and should be in the Twins’ rotation mix next year.

Roden, 26 in December, was the Blue Jays’ third-round pick back in 2022.  A lefty batter, Roden “projects to hit for a high average with high walk rates” per Baseball America, upon giving him a 50 high-risk grade as well.  He profiles as a corner outfielder.  While Roden has fared poorly in his 113 big league plate appearances, he has a 150 wRC+ at Triple-A this year and has little left to prove there.  He should be able to find playing time in left for the Twins this year given the departures of Bader and Castro.

This post was originally published at 5:05pm.

Rangers Acquire Danny Coulombe

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The Rangers are acquiring left-hander Danny Coulombe, according to a report from Jeff Passan of ESPN. The club subsequently announced the move, with left-handed pitching prospect Garrett Horn headed to the Twins in exchange for Coulombe.

Coulombe, 35, made his big league debut back in 2014 with the Dodgers. He was a fairly pedestrian middle reliever with the Dodgers and A’s throughout his 20’s, and posted a 4.27 ERA and 4.09 FIP across his first five seasons in the majors before being outrighted off the A’s roster back in 2018. He spent the 2019 season in the minors and re-emerged with the Twins during the 2020 campaign. Since then, he’s looked like an entirely different pitcher with a 2.40 ERA and 2.96 FIP across 161 1/3 innings of work between the Twins and Orioles.

Coulombe has not only avoided taking a step back as he’s aged, but he’s actually looked better than ever in his mid-30s. Over the last three seasons, Coulombe has posted a 2.17 ERA with a 2.59 FIP while striking out 27.6% of his opponents and walking just 5.9%. He’s paired that quality strikeout stuff and strong command with a knack for missing barrels with a minuscule 4.5% barrel rate to go with a 36.2% hard-hit rate, and his 3.07 SIERA in that time is on-par with top-shelf leverage relievers like David Robertson and Emmanuel Clase. This year, he’s been even better, with a microscopic 1.16 ERA and 1.96 FIP in 31 innings of work for Minnesota.

That’s a massive addition to a Rangers bullpen that has enjoyed solid seasons from players like Chris Martin and Robert Garcia. The Rangers weren’t hurting for bullpen help this season as they have been in previous years, but in a season where their offense has under-performed across the board and their rotation is stacked with elite options further strengthening the relief corps is an understandable path to take.

Coulombe was surely an extremely attractive piece for the Rangers in part because of his bargain salary. Coulombe is making just $3MM total this year, meaning the Rangers will have to pay him only around $1MM for the remainder of the season. That’s a crucial factor for a club that has remained stalwart in its desire to duck under the $241MM luxury tax threshold this year. Texas is just barely under that threshold at this point, with RosterResource suggesting they have a payroll of just over $235MM for luxury tax purposes. That’s likely slightly below where they’ll ultimately end up given the possibility of contract bonuses and incentives that will impact the final line.

As for the Twins, they’ll receive a young lefty pitcher as they continue their fire sale. A sixth-round pick in the 2024 draft by the Rangers last year, Horn has made nine starts between rookie ball and the Single-A level this season. The 22-year-old has posted a strong 2.92 ERA across 24 2/3 innings of work with a 35.4% strikeout rate, though that dominance isn’t exactly unexpected for a 22 year old in the lowest levels of the minor leagues. Still, Horn is an intriguing addition for a Twins farm system who Baseball America ranked as the #25 prospect in the Texas system this year. His mid-90s fastball is impressive, but his curveball is viewed as average at best and his changeup is completely undeveloped. He’s unlikely to be more than a reliever in the majors unless his secondary pitches develop substantially, but mid-90s velocity from the left side has a place in the majority of big league bullpens.

Dodgers, Twins To Swap Brock Stewart For James Outman

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The Dodgers and Twins are reportedly in agreement on a one-for-one swap of reliever Brock Stewart for center fielder James Outman. Both players are on the 40-man roster, so there won’t need to be any corresponding transactions.

Stewart hasn’t gotten as much attention as former teammates Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax at the back of Minnesota’s bullpen. He’s a strong late-game weapon in his own right. As with most Dodger pitching targets, he’s very effective on a rate basis but comes with significant durability questions. Stewart is healthy at the moment, and his presence should be a major boost to a floundering L.A. relief group.

The 6’3″ Stewart has fired 34 innings of 2.38 ERA ball on the year. He has struck out almost 30% of batters faced behind an excellent 14.7% swinging strike rate. He pairs that with a league average 7.9% walk rate and has done a good job avoiding hard contact. Stewart leads a five-pitch mix with a 96 MPH fastball and gets big swing-and-miss numbers on both his sweeper and changeup.

It’s a back-end profile. Stewart has picked up 14 holds and only blown one lead all season. Minnesota skipper Rocco Baldelli has used him behind only Duran and Jax on their leverage hierarchy over the past month. This is the second time in the past three years in which Stewart has been an underrated bullpen weapon. He posted a 0.95 ERA with a near-36% strikeout rate in 28 appearances two seasons back.

Health is the drawback. Stewart has appeared in parts of seven MLB seasons. He has never reached 40 innings. He’ll establish a new career-high workload in his first appearance after the trade. Stewart began his career with the Dodgers as a 2014 sixth-round pick. He logged parts of four seasons as a swingman before being lost on waivers to Toronto in 2019. He was out of MLB entirely over the next three seasons, largely because of 2021 Tommy John surgery.

Stewart reemerged with Minnesota in 2023. He was suddenly sitting around 97 MPH after working in the 91-94 range before the surgery. Stewart dominated for a couple months until experiencing renewed elbow discomfort that shut him down in late June. Last season, he was limited to 18 appearances by shoulder problems that necessitated arthroscopic surgery in August. He has been healthy this year aside from a brief season-opening IL stint related to a left hamstring strain.

The atypical career arc and lack of volume have tamped down Stewart’s earning power. He’s playing on an $870K salary that is barely above the league minimum. Stewart will go through arbitration twice more and won’t hit free agency until the end of his age-35 season. While the affordability meant that the Twins didn’t need to trade him, they also presumably felt this was the peak of his value. Stewart’s age and injury history meant there’d be real risk in holding onto him and hoping he’d remain this effective going into 2026.

It’s the first of what should be multiple bullpen acquisitions for Los Angeles. Dodger relievers rank 22nd in MLB with a 4.24 earned run average. They’re top 10 in strikeout rate but have not been as strong as expected. Tanner Scott has been wobbly and is now battling elbow inflammation. Kirby Yates has a 4.31 ERA despite excellent strikeout and walk numbers. Evan Phillips is done for the year. Michael Kopech and Brusdar Graterol could make late-season returns but have notable injury concerns.

While Stewart himself is far from a sure thing to stay healthy, he’s a nice get for a player whose hold on a roster spot seemed tenuous. The 28-year-old Outman hit 23 home runs and finished third in NL Rookie of the Year balloting two seasons ago. That came with a concerning level of swing-and-miss, however, and he hasn’t come close to that kind of production over the past couple years. Outman fanned at a 35% clip while hitting .147 in 53 big league contests last season. He’s batting .103 with 18 strikeouts in 44 trips to the plate this year.

Outman has remained productive against minor league pitching. He’s hitting .289/.378/.592 with 20 homers and 14 stolen bases in 70 Triple-A games this season. His .286/.386/.585 batting line over parts of three season there is strong even in the context of the Pacific Coast League. Outman’s production still comes with significant strikeout caveats. He’s a plus runner and defensive center fielder who doesn’t need to hit a ton to be a fourth or fifth outfielder. He’ll nevertheless obviously need to produce more than the .137/.245/.269 slash that he has managed at the MLB level over the past two seasons.

This is Outman’s final minor league option year. He can back up Byron Buxton in center or spend the remainder of the season at Triple-A St. Paul. The Twins would need to decide whether to carry him on the Opening Day roster next season or expose him to waivers.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Dodgers wee nearing a deal for Stewart. Alden González of ESPN reported Outman was going back, while Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star-Tribune confirmed it was one for one.

Images courtesy of Matt Krohn and Patrick Gorski, Imagn Images.

Phillies Acquire Harrison Bader

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The Phillies announced the acquisition of outfielder Harrison Bader from the Twins. Minnesota receives two prospects: outfielder Hendry Mendez and right-hander Geremy Villoria. Philadelphia designated reliever Brett de Geus for assignment to clear a 40-man roster spot.

Bader, 31, has been a solid big leaguer for years. He is one of the best outfield defenders in the league, with career tallies of 63 Defensive Runs Saved and 76 Outs Above Average. That DRS total is fifth-best among outfielders since the start of 2017, while the OAA total tops the leaderboard.

His offense has been up-and-down but he’s currently on pace to have his best season at the plate. In 307 plate appearances, he already has 12 home runs. Only once in his career has he hit more than that, which was the 16 he hit in 2021. His 26.4% strikeout rate is a bit high but his 8.8% walk rate is his best mark in years.

On the whole, he has a .258/.339/.439 line this year. His 117 wRC+, a career high, indicates he has been 17% better than league average at the plate this year. Thanks to ten stolen bases and some quality glovework, he’s already been worth 2.0 wins above replacement on the year, in the eyes of FanGraphs.

The Twins have pivoted to sell mode recently. They are 51-57 and 5.5 games out of a playoff spot. This the second deal they have lined up with the Phillies, as they already sent Jhoan Durán to Philadelphia. They also traded Chris Paddack to the Tigers and Brock Stewart to the Dodgers.

Bader has long been seen as likely to go, since he’s an impending free agent. He signed a one-year, $6.25MM deal with the Twins in the offseason. That guarantee came in the form of a $750K signing bonus, a $4MM salary, and a $1.5MM buyout on a mutual option. Mutual options are essentially never picked up by both sides, which is why Bader has been viewed as a rental. His buyout can also increase via plate appearance incentives. He would add $200K at 400, 425 and 450 plate appearances, then $450K at 475 and 500. As mentioned, he’s currently at 307 plate appearances.

His deal also has a $500K assignment bonus if he’s traded. Per Bobby Nightengale of the Minnesota Star Tribune, the Twins aren’t including any money in this deal, so it seems the Phils will take on the remaining salary and the buyout on the option. There’s about $1.3MM of salary left. The buyout, as mentioned, is $1.5MM but can increase.

Money aside, Bader is a great fit for the Phillies. They have been looking for outfield help and right-handed bat. Bader ticks both boxes. Nick Castellanos is cemented in right, but he’s a league-average bat with horrible defensive metrics. Johan Rojas is the opposite, as he’s a great defender who doesn’t hit. Brandon Marsh and Max Kepler are a bit less extreme. They’re both good defenders in a corner but a bit stretched in center. They both can hit but are left-handed hitters who do more damage with the platoon advantage. Kepler is also now battling a triceps injury, per Lochlahn March of the Philadelphia Inquirer.

Bader has largely been playing left field for the Twins out of deference to Byron Buxton. He should be able to pivot back to center for the Phils. That should allow for Rojas, Kepler and Marsh to all be used more selectively. Bader has pretty even platoon splits this year but his career splits are more extreme, with a .248/.315/.461 line versus lefties and a .242/.307/.374 slash against righties. Kepler recently expressed some dissatisfaction with being platooned but he hasn’t helped his cause with a .196/.250/.314 line against southpaws this year.

Mendez, 21, was originally a Brewers prospect. He came to the Phils in a November 2023 trade which sent infielder Oliver Dunn to the Brewers. Dunn was a minor league Rule 5 pick out of the Yankees’ system, making a fairly unusual trade tree for this move.

Since Mendez has come over the Phils, he’s been great at the plate. He spent last year at High-A and has been at Double-A this year. He has stepped to the plate 722 times in those two seasons with a 12.7% walk rate, 13.3% strikeout rate, .287/.380/.412 batting line and 131 wRC+. Baseball America lists him as the #17 prospect in the system. Their report notes that he hits the ball incredibly hard but too often into the ground. He’s not considered a strong outfield defender, so his development as a hitter will be key.

He is eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter. Perhaps the Phils weren’t going to add him to their 40-man roster or were on the fence about it. The Twins will need to add him this fall if they don’t want him to be exposed.

Villoria, 16, was an international signing of the Phils out of Venezuela. He just signed with the Phils this year out of for a $425K bonus and has 14 professional innings under his belt in the Dominican Summer League. His youth and inexperience naturally make him a long-term play. Baseball America notes that he can already get up to the mid-90s with his fastball and he also has a high-spin slider as well as a changeup.

For the Phils, they’re adding a bit of money to their books but they’re usually not afraid to do that and they’ve clearly got a foot on the gas pedal here. Their core players are mostly in their mid-30s, so they made a bold strike by giving up notable prospects in the Durán deal. Here, they’ve given up a few prospects but not top guys.

They are a third-time payor of the competitive balance tax and over the top tier, meaning they will face a 110% tax rate on Bader’s remaining salary and the buyout. Between the salary and buyout, he’s owed at least $2.8MM, so the Phils will also have to pay over $3MM in taxes on that.

For the Twins, they add a couple of extra prospects from a player who was set to depart in free agency anyway. It’s possible that saving money is a goal for them this week. They could have included money here to ask for a greater prospect return but didn’t do so. They also included Randy Dobnak’s contract in the Paddack deal, seemingly to save a few million bucks. They could still move Willi Castro, Danny Coulombe, Ty France and Christian Vázquez before the day is done, as they are all impending free agents. If they’re willing to move another controllable player like they did in the Duran deal, Griffin Jax could be on the move as well.

Teams like the Mets, Yankees and Dodgers were also connected to Bader in recent weeks. Those teams could pivot to guys like Steven Kwan, Luis Robert Jr., Cedric Mullins and/or Ramón Laureano, who are thought to be available today.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Phillies were closing in on a Bader deal for an outfield and pitching prospect. Matt Gelb of The Athletic had the return.

Photo courtesy of Matt Blewett, Jordan Johnson, Imagn Images

Astros Interested In Carlos Correa Reunion

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July 31: Nightengale reports that the talks between the two clubs are “all but dead,” adding that Houston asked Minnesota to pay “about $50MM” of the $102.5MM remaining in Correa’s contract and also asked for an outfielder to be included in the deal. Nightengale adds that the Twins rejected that offer and “aren’t budging” from that position. Rome reports (alongside The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal) that talks between the sides have continued despite both sides downplaying the likelihood of a trade.

July 30, 12:37pm: The Astros approached the Twins about the possibility, Chandler Rome and Dan Hayes of The Athletic report. Astros owner Jim Crane has “remained a fan” of Correa since his departure, they note, adding that the Twins believe Houston is perhaps the only destination to which Correa would green-light a trade. Nightengale adds that Correa indeed would be open to returning to Houston and playing third base there. That said, Hayes and Rome echo Passan in writing that the two sides are far apart and a deal is not at all close.

12:07pm: The Twins and Astros have indeed talked about the possibility of a Correa trade but aren’t close to an agreement, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports.

9:52am: As the Astros seek help in the infield following injuries to Isaac Paredes and Jeremy Pena, they’ve looked into the possibility of bringing Carlos Correa back to Houston, as first reported by USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune writes that the two parties have had discussions on the possibility. MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart adds that Houston’s interest “is real.” Nightengale adds that Houston remains interested in Eugenio Suárez as well and has at least weighed the possibility of another run at Nolan Arenado.

The Correa scenario presents a fascinating, if unexpected wrinkle to this summer’s deadline market. In the offseason, Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey downplayed the possibility of trading his shortstop, and Correa himself voiced an affinity for Minnesota when asked about his no-trade clause at the time.

It’s fair to wonder whether either party’s stance has changed. The Twins have struggled through a sub-.500 four months of baseball and have minimal hope of reaching the postseason. The Pohlad family is exploring a sale of the team, and while that was true over the winter as well, the former front-runner to purchase the Twins, Justin Ishbia, has since instead reached a long-term agreement to become the majority stakeholder in the White Sox (where he was already a minority owner). On Correa’s end of things, returning to his original organization and jumping back into a playoff race would presumably be appealing.

Correa is still owed significant money. He signed a six-year, $200MM deal with four vesting options prior to the 2023 season. He’ll make a combined $92MM from 2026-28 and also still has about $11.6MM of this year’s salary yet to be paid out. The Twins would almost certainly have to pay down a portion of the contract to make a deal work.

Even if Minnesota did so, however, adding Correa back to the roster in Houston would send the Astros soaring past the luxury tax threshold. They’re currently about $4.5MM shy of that barrier, per RosterResource. Owner Jim Crane was steadfastly against exceeding the tax threshold in the offseason — at least in most scenarios. His lone exception, it seemed, would have been for a reunion with Alex Bregman. Whether Crane is feeling more urgency due to Houston’s litany of injuries or simply harbors some sentimentality for another former Astros star, one has to imagine he’s grown more comfortable crossing the tax threshold.

That Correa is in the midst of a sub-par season only further muddies the water. The 30-year-old hit brilliantly for the Twins last year in an injury-shortened campaign, batting .310/.388/.517 with his typical brand of strong defense at shortstop. He’s rebounded from a poor start in 2025 to an extent, but Correa’s .267/.319/.386 slash is slightly under league average (97 wRC+). Over his past 274 plate appearances, Correa is hitting .300 with a .350 on-base percentage but just a .423 slugging percentage. His power is down substantially this season, in part because his ground-ball rate has spiked to a 48.5% — its highest level in five years.

A renewed run at Arenado would register as something of a surprise. Arenado invoked his no-trade clause to nix a trade to Houston over the winter. Now that the Astros are in first place, he’d likely be more open to a move there. However, he’s in the midst of a third straight down year at the plate and is still owed substantial money.

Arenado, 34, is hitting a career-worst .235/.295/.367 in 390 plate appearances. By measure of wRC+, he’s been 16% worse than average at the plate. He remains a strong defensive third baseman but no longer draws top-of-the-scale grades from defensive metrics. He’s earning $32MM this year, $27MM next year and $15MM in 2027. It’s a steep price to pay for a former All-Star whose bat is has been on the downswing for several years now. The Cardinals would need to eat a major portion of the contract, but there’s still enough left on the deal that Arenado, too, would surely put Houston over the luxury threshold.

Suárez, owed $4.8MM for the remainder of the season, might not quite put the Astros over that edge, though the Diamondbacks could always include some cash to coax a more favorable return. The bidding on the 34-year-old slugger will be fierce, however, and Houston’s farm system is not as well regarded as some of the other teams who’ll be vying for Suárez and his 36 home runs. The Mariners, Cubs, Tigers, Phillies and Reds are among the teams also pursuing him.

Paredes could miss the remainder of the season — Nightengale notes that surgery is a consideration — but he’s controlled for an additional two years. Pena is on the mend from fractured ribs but is also controlled through 2027. Given the Astros’ multiple years of control over the left side of their infield, Suárez represents a cleaner fit than either Correa or Arenado. Paredes could slide over to second base in subsequent seasons if the Astros wind up with a new infielder who’s signed beyond the current season, but he’s played the vast majority of his career at third base.

Correa’s name hasn’t come up until this point, but the Twins are expected to be active sellers over the next two days. Righty Chris Paddack was already moved to the Tigers, and rental players like Willi Castro, Harrison Bader and Danny Coulombe are all expected to change hands as well. The more interesting element is whether the Twins will cave and trade anyone controlled longer-term. Relievers Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax have been two of the most sought-after names on the bullpen market, and any contending team would love to add righty Joe Ryan to its rotation. All three are controlled through 2027, however. Add in the new possibility of a Correa deal, and there’s plenty for the Minnesota front office to do over the next day and a half.

Latest On Twins’ Deadline Plans

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The Twins have already moved Chris Paddack and Jhoan Duran, but they’re expected to remain active on the selling front right up until this afternoon’s deadline. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that as of last night, Minnesota was far more focused on negotiations pertaining to relievers Danny Coulombe and Brock Stewart than on anything involving top starter Joe Ryan, who still seems like a long shot to move. Meanwhile, Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune reports that the Twins have had about six clubs looking into utilityman Willi Castro and haven’t ruled out trading righty Griffin Jax even after moving Duran — but the price remains extremely high.

Coulombe is one of the most straightforward trade candidates on the market. He’s a rental reliever on a clear seller who’s having a terrific season while playing on a low-cost contract. He signed a one-year, $3MM deal to return to the Twins in the offseason and has rewarded that investment with a 1.16 ERA, 25.4% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate in 31 innings. He’s thrived versus lefties and righties alike. It’d be a surprise if Coulombe somehow wasn’t traded before today’s deadline.

Stewart, 33, isn’t necessarily as likely to go but could have some sneaky value. He’s 33 years old and has had plenty of injury concerns in his career, including Tommy John surgery while with the Dodgers and shoulder surgery with the Twins just last year.

That said, when Stewart has been healthy in Minnesota, he’s been excellent. He’s pitched 77 1/3 innings since landing with the Twins on a minor league deal in the 2022-23 offseason, and in that time he’s posted a 2.33 ERA with a huge 31.7% strikeout rate and a 9.5% walk rate. Stewart is sitting 96.1 mph on his four-seamer this year and has run his heater up to 100 mph at times. He’s sporting an outstanding 15.1% swinging-strike rate and has a massive 16.5% mark over the past three seasons combined.

The Twins don’t need to move Stewart, who’s earning just $870K this year and has two seasons of club control remaining. However, as a reliever in his mid-30s who was originally added on a minor league deal, there’s a bit of a “found money” aspect to the hard-throwing righty. His lengthy history of arm troubles also surely has to tempt the Twins to sell high right now, while he’s performing well. Stewart isn’t going to garner headlines like Duran, Jax and other controllable arms on the relief market (e.g. David Bednar, Mason Miller), but he’s quietly posted high-end results at near league-minimum salary.

Castro feels like another surefire trade candidate today. Like Coulombe and Stewart, he was originally signed by the Twins on a minor league deal before revitalizing his career in Minnesota. He’s hitting .245/.335/.407 with 10 homers and nine steals in 344 plate appearances on the season and has slashed .250/.335/.398 in his three years as a Twin.

The switch-hitting Castro is earning $6.4MM in 2025 and is a free agent at season’s end. He’s a 28-year-old with average power and above-average speed who can handle just about any position on the field. He’s played second base, third base, shortstop and all three outfield spots in 2025, though he’s stretched defensively at shortstop or in center field and is more of a backup option than a candidate for regular playing time at those positions. Given his versatility, Castro would deepen any contending club’s bench, and he’d be a starting option for several playoff contenders. The Mariners, Yankees and Astros have all shown interest this month, though the first two of those teams have obviously added some new infield options already, which could impact their current level of interest in Castro.

With Duran out the door and Coulombe and Stewart possibly following him, a trade of Jax would really deplete the Twins’ bullpen. The Twins will remain open to the idea, it seems, but they’re not likely to deviate from their asking price. They’ve been seeking multiple top-100 prospects for both Duran and Jax. They secured a strong return for Duran (catching prospect Eduardo Tait and MLB-ready starter Mick Abel) and will hold out for the same with regard to Jax.

The 31-year-old Jax is a former third-round pick. A look at his 4.50 ERA isn’t going to turn any heads, but the right-hander posted a 2.03 ERA last season and misses bats more than nearly any pitcher in the game. His 36.4% strikeout rate is fifth in all of baseball among the 293 pitchers (starter and relievers alike) with at least 40 innings pitched this season. His 19.5% swinging-strike rate sits third, trailing only Josh Hader and Aroldis Chapman. Jax’s 1.97 SIERA ranks second in baseball, trailing only the 1.96 mark of breakout Giants reliever Randy Rodriguez.

Jax is under club control for two more years beyond the current season. He had a brutal outing yesterday — three runs without recording an out — but even including that tough day has a 3.08 ERA and 1.49 FIP in 38 innings dating back to late April. He’s the clear favorite to close games for the Twins moving forward. The Yankees are among the clubs looking into Jax, Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests, and the Mariners have been in the mix as well.

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