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Rays, Twins Swap Griffin Jax For Taj Bradley

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The Rays and Twins orchestrated a fascinating one-for-one swap at the deadline. Minnesota traded setup man Griffin Jax to Tampa Bay for young starting pitcher Taj Bradley.

Jax, 30, is one of a staggering five relievers whom the Twins traded in the past two days. He followed Jhoan Duran, Brock Stewart, Danny Coulombe and Louis Varland out the door. Minnesota dismantled what had been one of the best bullpens in the game. Of course, that doesn’t even address their biggest deal of the day.

A former third-round pick out of Air Force, Jax has developed into a high-end reliever. This year’s 4.50 ERA may not reflect that, but he misses bats an elite rate. Jax has punched out 36.4% of opposing hitters while running a 19.5% swinging strike rate. He ranks comfortably among the top 10 relievers in MLB in both categories. Jax posted very similar underlying numbers across 72 appearances a year ago. Last season’s ERA reflected that dominance, as he turned in a 2.03 mark through 71 innings.

Opposing hitters have a .389 average on balls in play against Jax. That’s the highest against any pitcher in MLB with at least 40 innings. Jax had allowed a sub-.300 BABIP in each of the previous three seasons. This season’s mark is a clear outlier, and teams continue to view him as a weapon at the back of the bullpen. Jax has the ability to run his fastball to 97 MPH on average, but his best two offerings are his sweeper and changeup. It’s a plus three-pitch mix.

Jax joins Pete Fairbanks, Bryan Baker and Garrett Cleavinger towards the back of a revamped Tampa Bay bullpen. He’s likely to work in a setup role in front of Fairbanks for the remainder of the season. The Rays opted not to trade their closer despite what appeared to be significant interest. Fairbanks could be the subject of trade chatter again during the offseason. If Tampa Bay pulls the trigger on a deal at that point, Jax would have a good chance of stepping into the ninth inning.

The Rays control Jax for two seasons beyond this one. He’s playing on a $2.365MM salary in his first arbitration year. Duran kept him from accruing many saves in Minnesota that would’ve built his arbitration earnings. He’ll likely land a salary in the $4-5MM range next season and could get between $6-8MM for his final run through the process. Tampa Bay straddled the line between buying and selling this summer, but they didn’t abandon hope of erasing what is currently a three-game deficit in the Wild Card picture. Even if they don’t make the playoffs, they’ll have Jax for another couple seasons.

It’s appealing enough that the Rays were willing to move on from Bradley. A former top prospect, the 6’2″ righty has held a rotation spot in Tampa Bay for most of the past three seasons. He has never really put it all together, allowing an ERA of 4.11 or higher in each season. Home runs were the biggest culprit over the first two years, but he missed bats at plus rates with league average control. It has been a different story in 2025. Bradley’s strikeout rate has dropped to a career-low 20.2% as he’s getting fewer swinging strikes. He has upped his ground-ball rate and gotten the longball under control, but his 4.61 ERA across 21 starts is right in line with his career mark.

Around the All-Star Break, it was reported that the Rays were open to offers on Bradley. It seemed clear that he’d fallen out of favor when they optioned him to Triple-A last week after he gave up four runs without escaping the second inning against the White Sox. That didn’t mean they’d trade him for whatever they could get, of course, but there was presumably a growing frustration with Bradley’s inconsistent results. Tampa Bay traded a pair of starting pitchers in Bradley and Zack Littell, but they’re giving the former’s rotation spot to hard-throwing righty Joe Boyle. They replaced the latter by acquiring Adrian Houser from the White Sox.

Coaxing more out of Bradley now falls on the Twins. He figures to return to the rotation in Minnesota. He’ll slot behind Joe Ryan, Zebby Matthews and eventually Pablo López in the starting staff. Minnesota also landed talented rookie right-hander Mick Abel from the Phillies in the Duran return. They’re clearly looking ahead to a 2026 season that might be under new ownership and hoping to build around young starting pitching.

Bradley may not have had sustained MLB success, but it’s easy to see the appeal. Controllable starting pitching is the most difficult asset to acquire. Minnesota has Bradley under team control for four seasons after this one. He has a four-pitch mix led by a 96 MPH fastball with the command to start. If the Twins can marry this year’s batted ball results with the swing-and-miss ability he has shown in prior seasons, Bradley would be a more valuable long-term asset than a reliever — even one as good as Jax.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Rays were acquiring Jax. Dan Hayes of The Athletic had Bradley’s return. Images courtesy of Lon Howedel and Jonathan Dyer, Imagn Images.

Rays Acquire Adrian Houser For Curtis Mead and Pitching Prospects

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The Rays are acquiring starting pitcher Adrian Houser from the White Sox, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Infielder Curtis Mead will head to Chicago in return, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score adds that the White Sox will also receive right-handed pitchers Duncan Davitt and Ben Peoples.

Houser, 32, had a rough 2024 season with the Mets but spent the offseason training at “at PitchingWRX, a facility in Oklahoma City where former Sox pitcher Lane Ramsey is the chief of operations,” according to James Fegan of Sox Machine.  Houser landed a minor league deal with the Rangers in December, then inked a Major League one with the White Sox on May 20th.  Houser had added over a mile per hour to his fastball due to his offseason training, and posted a stellar 2.10 ERA in 11 starts for the Sox.

Somehow, Houser has had this level of success despite a 17.1 K%.  He’s had success preventing barrels, and Statcast’s xERA supports a sub-4 mark.  Houser, a free agent after the season, joins a Rays rotation that also includes Ryan Pepiot, Shane Baz, Drew Rasmussen, and Joe Boyle.  Houser, a free agent after the season, can serve as something of a replacement for Zack Littell, who the Rays dealt to the Reds yesterday.  The Rays optioned Taj Bradley to Triple-A a week ago, but today shipped him to the Twins for elite reliever Griffin Jax.

It’s been an interesting month for Rays president of baseball operations Erik Neander, who also shipped out Danny Jansen and Bryan Baker earlier this month.  The Rays simply aren’t afraid to make trades (including during a game with their opponent) and serve as both buyers and sellers.  The Rays took a painful loss in New York against the Yankees today, with Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda, and Chandler Simpson all departing early with injuries.  The club still has a fighting chance at 3.5 games out in the Wild Card.

Mead, 25 in October, hasn’t done much with Major League pitching in stints in each of the last three seasons.  Nor has he been all that impressive in Triple-A in the last few years.  Still, Mead has spent ample time on Baseball America’s top 100 prospects list, peaking at #36 prior to the 2023 season.  He garnered a 55/medium risk grade at that time, at which point Baseball America considered him “one of the best pure hitters in the minors.”  Though the Rays are considered a dangerous trading partner, Mead represents a rare misstep for the club, as they acquired him for Cristopher Sanchez back in November 2019.

Not known for his defense, Mead can fit at first, second, or third base.  Those spots are occupied in Chicago by Miguel Vargas, Lenyn Sosa, and Colson Montgomery of late, with Andrew Benintendi taking a fair number of DH at-bats.  Mead can likely work his way into the playing time mix.  As Jim Margalus of Sox Machine notes, Mead bears some similarities to Vargas.

Davitt, a 25-year-old righty, earned a promotion to Triple-A earlier this month. Eric Longenhagen and James Fegan of FanGraphs described him in February as “a funky low-slot guy at Iowa who has successfully been turned into a backend starter prospect in pro ball.”  Peoples, a 24-year-old righty, has spent the entire season as a reliever at Triple-A, posting a 2.65 ERA with a 12.3 K-BB%.  The FanGraphs team wrote, “We’re betting on Peoples’ athleticism and delivery here, and still think he has a future as a fastball-heavy up/down reliever who has a chance to entrench himself in a more regular big league role if one of his secondary pitches improves.”

Rays, Yankees Swap Jose Caballero For Everson Pereira

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The Yankees have acquired utilityman Jose Caballero from the Rays in exchange for outfielder Everson Pereira and a player to be named later, per announcements from both clubs. Both players were on their respective teams’ 40-man rosters, so no corresponding 40-man moves were needed.

The versatile Caballero adds plenty of speed and defensive flexibility to the Yankees’ bench mix. The 28-year-old is hitting just .226/.327/.311 on the season but is tied for a share of the major league lead with 34 stolen bases (in 44 attempts). He’s played second base, third base, shortstop and all three outfield positions this season.

Caballero draws plus defensive grades all over the infield and in the outfield corners as well. He’s controllable for another four years beyond the current season but will be arbitration-eligible as a Super Two player in the offseason.

The 24-year-old Pereira ranked among Baseball America’s top-100 prospects in the 2022-23 and 2023-24 offseasons. His path to the majors has been slowed by injury, most notably a UCL repair surgery performed last June. Because of injuries and the shortened 2020 season, the Yankees were granted a fourth option year over the Venezuelan-born outfielder. He’ll be out of options next season.

Pereira got a brief big league debut with the 2023 Yankees but looked overmatched as a 22-year-old who’d only played 35 games above the Double-A level. He hit .151/.233/.194 and fanned 40 times in 103 trips to the plate (38.8%). He’s now in his third partial season at the Triple-A level and hitting .254/.357/.507 with 19 homers and nine steals in 314 plate appearances. Pereira has gone down on strikes in 29.5% of his plate appearances but walked at a stout 12.1% clip. He’s averaging 92.1 mph off the bat and sporting a huge 50% hard-hit rate

Pereira can play all three outfield spots and brings some upside to the Rays, though he’s continually shown a worrying lack of contact skills in the upper minors. He’ll give Tampa Bay some depth in the outfield. Notably, speedy outfielder Chandler Simpson exited today’s game with a hand injury, so the acquisition of Pereira could be tied to concerns that Simpson will miss time. Josh Lowe, Jake Mangum, Jonny DeLuca and Kameron Misner are among the other Rays options on the 40-man roster.

Jack Curry of the YES Network first reported the trade.

Latest On Rays’ Deadline Possibilities

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The Rays remain one of the tougher teams to pin down around five hours until the trade deadline. Last night, they shipped out impending free agent starter Zack Littell to the Reds in a three-team trade that netted catcher Hunter Feduccia from the Dodgers. While that could be the beginning of a broader sell-off, it’s also possible they viewed Littell — their only pure rental — as a unique case.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported in the early-morning hours that the Rays, at least to that point, had put talks involving Yandy Díaz and Brandon Lowe on the back burner and were focused on other pursuits. While it’s possible things have changed in the roughly 12 hours since Rosenthal’s report, Franycs Romero describes the Rays’ talks on Díaz as “currently stalled.” He suggests the club is holding to a high asking price on the veteran first baseman/designated hitter.

The Red Sox have been mentioned most frequently as a potential Díaz suitor. Even if the Rays were willing to trade the 2023 AL batting champ, talk with Boston would be complicated by the divisional factor. The Red Sox currently occupy the second Wild Card position in the American League. The Rays have played terribly this month but remain within three games of a playoff spot. They’re hardly buried.

Díaz is signed for next season at a $12MM rate; his deal contains a $10MM club option for 2027 that could vest at $13MM depending on his plate appearance tally next year. Lowe is in the final guaranteed year of his deal but under club control on a bargain $11.5MM option that comes with a $500K buyout. Tampa Bay reinstated him from a minimal 10-day IL stint (left ankle tendinitis) yesterday.

Joel Sherman of The New York Post tied the Astros and Mets to Lowe earlier in the week. Houston has since added the righty-swinging Ramón Urías to handle third base but presumably remains in the mix for left-handed bats. The Mets are now focused on offense after making a trio of late-inning additions: Ryan Helsley, Tyler Rogers and Gregory Soto. This morning, ESPN’s Jorge Castillo listed Lowe as a hitter the Mets are considering.

Beyond Díaz and Lowe, the Rays have gotten a lot of hits on closer Pete Fairbanks. He’s playing on a $3.667MM salary and has a club option for next season. Lefty reliever Garrett Cleavinger, who is eligible for arbitration for another two years, is a player to watch. The Rays were also reportedly listening on 24-year-old starter Taj Bradley earlier this month.

Reds Acquire Zack Littell In Three-Team Trade

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The Reds announced the acquisition of starting pitcher Zack Littell from the Rays in what’ll reportedly be a three-team trade. Righty Brian Van Belle is headed from Cincinnati to Tampa Bay. The Reds are reportedly sending pitching prospect Adam Serwinowski to the Dodgers, who’ll trade catcher Hunter Feduccia to Tampa Bay. Reliever Paul Gervase and minor league catcher Ben Rortvedt are headed from the Rays to the Dodgers. As of Wednesday night, only the Littell for Van Belle/Serwinowski portion of the trade has been finalized.

Littell tossed five scoreless innings tonight against the Yankees in his final appearance with the Rays. That lowered his earned run average to an impressive 3.58 mark across 22 starts. Littell turned in a very similar 3.63 ERA in 29 appearances a season ago. He has led the Rays in innings in each of the past two seasons while putting together steady mid-rotation results.

It’s excellent work for a player whom the Rays snagged off waivers from the Red Sox a little over two years ago. Littell had bounced around the league mostly as a middle reliever before Tampa Bay built him up as a starter. His fantastic control played well in a rotation role. Throwing strikes is the 29-year-old’s standout trait. Littell has walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters in consecutive seasons. He issued four free passes tonight in the Bronx, but that’s only the second time he has done so in the past two years.

Littell doesn’t have eye-popping stuff. He sits in the 91-92 MPH range with both his four-seam fastball and sinker. Neither his slider nor splitter are huge swing-and-miss offerings. Littell had roughly average strikeout and whiff rates a season ago. This year’s 16.6% strikeout rate and 9.1% swinging strike percentage are each subpar. Littell surrenders a lot of hard contact and has had issues with the home run ball throughout his career. That includes an MLB-high 26 longballs allowed this season.

That profile seems a suboptimal fit for a pitcher who’ll now call the extremely hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park home. Littell’s consistency was clearly a plus for Cincinnati. He has worked at least five innings in all but one start this year. He has allowed three or fewer runs in 18 of 22 appearances. Littell has had a better season than Nick Martinez and Brady Singer have managed. Rookie Chase Burns has also been up and down over his first six starts.

Adding Littell will push Martinez to the bullpen. Ace Hunter Greene is on a rehab assignment as he works back from a groin strain. That’ll presumably push Burns back to Triple-A. Cincinnati would have a starting five of Greene, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, Littell and Singer at that point.

Littell is playing on a $5.72MM salary for his final year of arbitration. The Reds are taking on a little more than $1.8MM for the final two months. He’ll be a free agent at season’s end. Tampa Bay wasn’t going to make him a qualifying offer. They’ve played terribly this month and dropped below .500 with tonight’s loss. Their 3.5 game deficit in the Wild Card race isn’t insurmountable, but the team’s performance coming out of the All-Star Break discouraged the front office enough that they’re at least soft sellers.

Trading Littell, their only true impending free agent, is the obvious starting point. Closer Pete Fairbanks and second baseman Brandon Lowe are controllable for next season via club options. Shortstop Ha-Seong Kim has a $16MM player option. Yandy Díaz and Drew Rasmussen are each signed through 2026 with team options covering the ’27 campaign. Lefty reliever Garrett Cleavinger is arbitration controlled through 2027. It remains to be see how aggressively they’ll shop players whom they control beyond this season, but the Rays have the potential to make a significant impact on the deadline.

The Reds part with a couple controllable players to land Littell. Serwinowski, a 6’5″ left-hander, is the more significant loss. The Reds drafted him out of high school in 2022. He has developed into one of their more intriguing low minors pitchers. Serwinowski ranked 10th in the Cincinnati system at MLB Pipeline and 12th at Baseball America. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs had him as high as sixth in the organization in May. Scouting reports praise his plus fastball-slider combination, crediting him with a mid-90s heater that can touch 97. Like many tall young pitchers, he has below-average command. Serwinowski also doesn’t have a great third pitch, raising questions about his ability to turn a lineup over multiple times.

There’s a decent chance the 21-year-old will end up as a reliever, but it’s easy to see the appeal of a pitcher with this kind of stuff and physical projection. Serwinowski has spent the season in High-A, allowing a 4.84 ERA across 74 1/3 innings. He has punched out an above-average 27.7% of batters faced while walking nearly 12% of opponents. He’s the headliner of the return from the Dodgers’ perspective as a low minors development flier.

Van Belle, 28, has yet to make his MLB debut. The Red Sox called him up in June but designated him for assignment a few days later without getting him into a game. Cincinnati added him on a cash deal and has kept him on optional assignment to Triple-A Louisville. A former undrafted free agent out of the University of Miami, Van Belle has combined for 81 1/3 innings of 3.21 ERA ball at the top minor league level this year. That comes with a below-average 20.2% strikeout rate but a sterling 3.2% walk percentage. His fastball barely scrapes 90 MPH, but he’s a fantastic strike-thrower who relies mostly on a mid-80s changeup to stay off barrels. He’ll provide the Rays a depth starter or long relief type who is in his first of three minor league option seasons.

Feduccia is the bigger get from Tampa Bay’s perspective. He’s a 28-year-old catcher who had a limited path to playing time behind Will Smith and Dalton Rushing in L.A. Feduccia has held a spot on the 40-man roster for two seasons but has only gotten into seven MLB games. He has been forced to bide his time in Triple-A, where he owns a .277/.387/.450 batting line in more than 1200 plate appearances. A left-handed hitter, he takes plenty of walks and has decent contact skills with minimal power.

Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs slotted Feduccia 31st among Dodger prospects in his writeup of the farm system in April. Longenhagen wrote that he struggles to control the running game but is a plus receiving catcher. Tampa Bay has cycled through catchers for years. They swapped out Danny Jansen for Nick Fortes in separate trades with Milwaukee and Miami earlier this week. Feduccia could push the out-of-options Matt Thaiss for the backup job immediately. He’s in his second of three option years and could be assigned to Triple-A Durham if the Rays don’t want to risk losing Thaiss on waivers.

Landing him required sending the 25-year-old Gervase to Los Angeles. A 6’10” righty reliever, Gervase was acquired from the Mets last July. Tampa Bay promoted him a few weeks ago. He has made five appearances, giving up three runs across 6 1/3 innings. He has posted monster strikeout numbers in Durham, fanning nearly 40% of opponents while pitching to a 3.12 ERA across 28 appearances. Gervase has paired that with a 7.5% walk rate that represents dramatically improved control relative to his early minor league work. The LSU product leans mostly on a 93-94 MPH fastball and mixes in a slider and cutter. He’s in his first option year and will begin his Dodger career as middle relief depth.

Rortvedt, who is not on the 40-man roster, backfills L.A.’s lost catching depth at Triple-A. At age 27, he’s actually younger than Feduccia but has far more MLB experience. He’s a .186/.276/.265 hitter in 209 big league contests. Rortvedt hit .095 in 26 big league games this year before Tampa Bay ran him through waivers. He is hitting .183 in 19 Triple-A games. He’ll be a minor league free agent at the end of the season if the Dodgers don’t call him up before then.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the Reds were closing in on a deal for Littell. Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer reported that Cincinnati was giving up Van Belle and Serwinowski. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale first mentioned the three-team trade, with C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic relaying that the Rays were flipping Serwinowski elsewhere. Passan had the Dodgers’ involvement and the full breakdown.

Images courtesy of Imagn Images.

Dodgers Interested In Pete Fairbanks, Shane Bieber

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The Dodgers have been connected to a number of high-profile bats this summer, ranging from Guardians outfielder Steven Kwan to Cardinals utility man Brendan Donovan. The focus has primarily been on upgrading the club’s bullpen, however, and while the L.A. has reportedly been connected to everyone from Ryan Helsley to David Bednar, those aren’t the only bullpen arms they could pursue. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic writes that the club is seeking “at least one” right-handed reliever on the trade market, and adds that they’ve shown interest in Rays closer Pete Fairbanks. Aside from that, it seems as though the Dodgers have at least some cursory interest in dabbling in the rotation market, with MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reporting that L.A. brass has spoken to Cleveland about right-hander Shane Bieber.

Fairbanks, 31, has a 20.2% strikeout rate that’s down relative to previous years but hasn’t seen his results impacted as he’s pitched to a 2.75 ERA and 2.89 FIP. His solid 47.8% ground ball rate helps to explain that to some extent, although some advanced metrics are still skeptical considering that his 3.98 SIERA this year is the worst of his career. With that being said, Fairbanks had a 34.1% strikeout rate and a 2.66 ERA over a four year stretch from 2020 to 2023, and given that he’s just two years removed from those heights it would hardly be surprising if some suitors hope to unlock that elite production from him again in the future. Further helping Fairbanks’s value is that he’s controllable through the 2026 season by way of a club option valued at $7MM.

That combination of strong recent results, an impressive track record, and additional team control beyond this season has made Fairbanks a hot commodity on the trade market. The Rangers and Cubs have both been directly connected to him in recent days in addition to the Dodgers, while a number of other teams like the Phillies, Blue Jays, and Tigers are known to be on the prowl for bullpen help. With that said, there’s reason to wonder if the Dodgers might bow out if the market gets too hot on Fairbanks. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic notes that the Dodgers are not currently in the “high-end” relief market. With that being said, Rosenthal specifically mentions Twins closer Jhoan Duran and A’s closer Mason Miller. Both Duran and Miller are even more well-regarded than Fairbanks while also coming with more team control, so it’s entirely possible that Fairbanks is someone the Dodgers would still be willing to pay a relative premium given that his acquisition cost would likely still be incomparable to the likes of Duran and Miller.

Moving on to Bieber, the Guardians are known to be “trying to move” the right-hander. He’s not yet pitched this year after undergoing Tommy John surgery early in the 2024 season, but figures to be ready to pitch at some point in August. A former Cy Young award winner with a 2.91 ERA and 2.96 FIP since the start of the 2020 season, Bieber is a legitimate front-of-the-rotation starter when healthy and could offer a huge boost to any club down the stretch and into the playoffs this year. The Cubs have been connected to Bieber already in the rumor mill, and a number of other teams like the Yankees and Blue Jays would also make sense for his services. A $16M player option ($4M buyout) for the 2026 season could complicate negotiations in theory, but it’s extremely unlikely that Bieber would exercise an option at that price point barring a significant injury given the ability of starters with his upside and track record to command far more than that even when coming off poor seasons.

The Dodgers are nonetheless a somewhat curious fit for his services given that they already have a stacked rotation that features Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Blake Snell along with a bevy of viable back-end depth options. On the other hand, the club had a rash of injuries that left them struggling to field a full rotation earlier this year, and after suffering that same fate in the playoffs last season it would be understandable if the club decided to add yet another high-end arm to the mix in order to safeguard themselves ahead of a postseason where they’ll be looking to defend their World Series title. Los Angeles already has six MLB starters on the 60-day injured list, and while Snell is expected to be activated in the near future that just goes to demonstrate the fragility of modern pitchers and the importance of having excess depth.

Latest On Cubs’ Starting Pitching Pursuits

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The Cubs are known to be in the market for starting pitching help, and it’s not very hard to see why. Justin Steele has been out for nearly the entire season after undergoing surgery on his UCL and won’t be back until sometime next year. Jameson Taillon is currently on the injured list, as are depth arms like Javier Assad and Brandon Birdsell. Cade Horton and Matthew Boyd are having their innings carefully monitored after not getting much volume in last year. Shota Imanaga has already spent time on the injured list and has some worrisome peripheral numbers.

All of that has led the Cubs to be connected to the vast majority of rumored starting pitching options available on the trade market, ranging from depth additions like Adrian Houser, to high-value rentals like Dylan Cease and Merrill Kelly, to controllable arms like Mitch Keller and MacKenzie Gore. Reporting from ESPN’s Jesse Rogers this morning offers a fresh look at some of the other arms Chicago is taking a look at with just over 30 hours to go until the deadline. Rogers writes that the Cubs have shown interest in Orioles right-hander Zach Eflin and spoken to the Rays about their starting pitchers, while Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that Guardians righty Shane Bieber is “an option” for the Cubs.

Eflin, 31, has struggled badly this year with a 5.93 ERA and 5.60 FIP in 14 starts. A 4.39 SIERA and an absurd 19.4% home run to fly ball ratio suggest that some poor fortune could be baked into Eflin’s results this year, but even so it’s hard to view him as more than a back-of-the-rotation addition for this season. With that being said, the right-hander does have some intriguing past success under his belt. From 2020 through 2024, Eflin tossed 583 1/3 innings of work with a solid 3.76 ERA and 3.46 FIP. He struck out 23.2% of his opponents in that time while walking just 3.9%. If Eflin can recapture that quality mid-rotation form, he could theoretically pitch in for Chicago’s prospective playoff rotation this year, though that seems unlikely to be something the Cubs (or any acquiring club) would count on.

Bieber is another potential buy-low candidate, albeit for a very different reason. He hasn’t thrown a major league pitch since early in the 2024 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and while he’s expected back at some point in August it’s always uncertain what sort of production a pitcher coming off major injury will be able to offer. The 2020 AL Cy Young award winner has a 3.22 ERA and 3.09 FIP for his career, however, and if he’s healthy and at his usual level of effectiveness would immediately slot in towards the top of the Cubs’ rotation.

Bieber’s contract affords him a $16MM player option with a $4MM buyout for the 2026 season. That $12MM decision figures to be an easy one for Bieber to make, and he’s all be certain to decline it and return to free agency unless he suffers some sort of new injury that would impact his 2026 campaign. Still, player options are at times viewed as a “poison pill” of sorts in trade negotiations, as the Cubs saw for themselves when they dealt Cody Bellinger to the Yankees over the offseason in what amounted to little more than a salary dump. Perhaps that could lower the acquisition cost of Bieber, making the fact that he won’t be able to immediately impact a Cubs rotation in desperate need of help more palatable.

As for the Rays, the club is routinely willing to at least listen on virtually its entire roster even when they’re buyers and appears to be leaning more towards selling in recent days. That makes it hard to know what starters the Cubs could be discussing with Tampa. Pending free agent Zack Littell has a 3.72 ERA in 21 starts this year despite shaky peripherals and could fit the sort of depth-starter mold that options like Eflin and Houser can fill. Young right-hander Taj Bradley would be an intriguing controllable addition who the Rays are reportedly willing to listen to offers on. He’s pitched to a 4.33 ERA with a 4.14 FIP over the past two seasons and is still just 24 years old.

No trade can be fully ruled out when it comes to the Rays, so perhaps someone else from the club’s rotation could be available as well. With that being said, Drew Rasmussen extended with the club through the 2027 season back in January and is approaching his innings limit this year while youngsters like Ryan Pepiot and Shane Baz are still in their pre-arbitration years. The acquisition cost for any of those three players would surely be exorbitant, however, and there have been no signals that any of those arms are even available beyond the Rays’ general tendency to listen to offers on virtually all of their players. Even by Tampa’s standards, however, a trade of one of those three would register as a major surprise.

Rays, Rangers Have Had “Preliminary” Talks On Pete Fairbanks

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The Rangers and Rays have had “at least preliminary” conversations about Tampa Bay closer Pete Fairbanks, writes Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News. Fairbanks is one of a handful of Rays veterans whose status is up in the air as the team considers its deadline approach.

Tampa Bay lost to the Yankees tonight, falling back to .500 in the process. They’re now three games back in the Wild Card race. That’s hardly insurmountable, yet the trend lines are not good. The Rays have a 7-16 record this month, an ill-timed skid that seemingly has forced the front office to more seriously consider a sell-off. ESPN’s Buster Olney relayed this afternoon that other teams expect the Rays to serve as one of the bigger sellers in the next two days.

It was less than a week ago that The Athletic reported that the Rays preferred to hold Fairbanks. Perhaps that’s still the case, but the Rays have dropped five out of six since then. A bubble team’s plans can change quickly this time of year. If the Rays do sell, Fairbanks would be an obvious candidate. He’s in the final guaranteed season of his three-year contract. There’s a club option for next season that’ll very likely be in eight figures after accounting for various escalators. That’d be a significant price for Tampa Bay to spend on a relief pitcher.

The 31-year-old Fairbanks is playing this season on a much cheaper $3.667MM salary. That’d be appealing to any team but would take on extra importance for Texas given their proximity to the luxury tax threshold. There’s no indication that Fairbanks is a specific priority for the Rangers, however. They’re casting a wide net in the search for a late-inning reliever and have also been tied to Ryan Helsley, David Bednar and Colorado’s Jake Bird within the past 12 hours.

Fairbanks would be a familiar face for some in the organization. Texas drafted him in the ninth round in 2015 and called him up for an eight-game cameo four years later. They traded him to the Rays in a regrettable 2019 deadline deal for Nick Solak. Fairbanks has become a high-leverage piece in Tampa Bay. He’s currently carrying a 2.75 ERA with 18 saves in 21 opportunities across 39 1/3 innings. This year’s 20.2% strikeout rate is a career low, which is a red flag, but he’s averaging his customary 97 MPH on his fastball and would immediately be the top power arm in the Texas bullpen.

Rays Acquire Nick Fortes From Marlins

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TODAY: Both clubs have officially announced the Fortes-for-Etzel trade.

JULY 28: The Rays and Marlins are reportedly in agreement on a trade that will send catcher Nick Fortes to Tampa Bay for minor league outfielder Matthew Etzel. Once completed, this will backfill the Rays’ catching depth. Tampa Bay traded Danny Jansen to the Brewers for an infield prospect on Monday evening. The Rays expect to announce the Fortes deal on Tuesday.

For the Rays, they often try to straddle a buy/sell line at the deadline and it seems that will be the play this week. They are 53-53 this year, three games back of a playoff spot. While they don’t want to punt their season, they seemingly want to strike a balance between doing things that work for the club now and in the future.

Jansen is a 30-year-old veteran on a one-year deal. He’s better than Fortes right now but Fortes is younger, cheaper and controllable for three more seasons after this one. Presumably, the Rays feel that going from Jansen to Fortes doesn’t significantly harm them in 2025, while adding a few seasons of Fortes and also grabbing Jadher Areinamo in the Jansen trade will help them in the long run more than Etzel.

Fortes, 28, doesn’t do a ton in the batter’s box. In 1,073 plate appearances, he has 25 home runs but a .225 batting average and a 5.2% walk rate. Overall, his .225/.277/.344 line translates to a 70 wRC+. Jansen, on the other hand, has 11 home runs this season alone and is drawing walks at a 12.7% pace. His .204/.314/.389 line in 2025 translates to a 99 wRC+.

Behind the plate, Fortes grades out well. He’s been credited with 17 Defensive Runs Saved in his career. Outlets like FanGraphs, Statcast and Baseball Prospectus all consider him a strong framer. Jansen gets strong marks from BP but not the other two systems. In short, Fortes might be a downgrade from Jansen at the plate but might be a slight upgrade defensively.

It’s certainly a cost-saving switch. Jansen signed a one-year deal with the Rays which guarantees him $8.5MM. He’s making $8MM in terms of salary and then there’s a $500K buyout on a mutual option for 2026. Fortes just qualified for artbitation for the first time after the 2024 season, as a Super Two player. He is making $1.86MM this year and is lined up for three further raises via arb.

For the Marlins, they don’t really need Fortes. They already have Agustín Ramírez and Liam Hicks on the big league roster. It’s possible that Ramírez might not have the defensive chops to stick behind the plate, but the Fish also have Joe Mack lurking. Mack has shown up on some top 100 prospect lists and is already at the Triple-A level. Perhaps he will get a big league look in the wake of this Fortes deal. Or if not now, maybe he could be a September call-up.

They Marlins have exchanged a light-hitting placeholder catcher for an outfield prospect. Etzel is a deadline pickup for the second year in a row. He went from the Orioles to the Rays last summer as part of the Zach Eflin deal.

A tenth-round pick of the O’s in 2023, he’s not ranked as one of Tampa’s top 30 prospects by either Baseball America or FanGraphs. MLB Pipeline has him in the #28 slot. Broadly speaking, he seems to be a contact-based hitter with speed. Since the start of 2024, he has 723 plate appearances, mostly at the Double-A level. He has just 16 home runs but a 12.2% walk rate, .259/.350/.404 line and 119 wRC+ in that time. He’s also stolen 62 bases, though while also getting caught 19 times.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that the Rays were working on a Fortes trade. Robert Murray of FanSided reported Etzel’s inclusion. Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times confirmed the Fortes trade agreement was in place.

Photos courtesy of Katie Stratman and Sam Navarro, Imagn Images

Astros, Mets Have Expressed Interest In Brandon Lowe

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The Rays are a game above .500 and sit 2.5 back of the AL’s final Wild Card spot. A terrible 6-15 showing in July has dropped them from expected buyers to a bubble team that looks likely to walk the line between adding and trading away veterans. They began that process on Monday, shipping out impending free agent catcher Danny Jansen in one deal while acquiring a slightly worse but controllable backstop (Nick Fortes) in a second trade. They downgraded a bit in the short term to add a superior prospect than the one they surrendered without giving up on the season.

Trading Jansen is an easier call than it’d be to move either Brandon Lowe or Yandy Díaz. They’re longer-tenured members of the organization and more impactful players. The Rays had been reluctant to move Díaz or Lowe for most of this month. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported over the weekend that the team’s recent play has led the front office to be more open to hearing other teams out on the pair of veteran hitters.

Joel Sherman of The New York Post wrote on Monday that the Rays still prefer to add. That preceded a win over the Yankees in the first of a four-game set in the Bronx that’ll run up to the deadline. The Red Sox are known to be monitoring Díaz in case the Rays sell. Meanwhile, Sherman reports that the Mets and Astros are among the teams that have contacted the Rays about Lowe. He suggests that Houston, in particular, has strong interest in the left-handed hitting second baseman. Astros GM Dana Brown has made no secret about his goal of acquiring a lefty bat to provide a semblance of balance to the game’s most right-handed lineup.

Lowe is currently on the 10-day injured list with ankle tendinitis. The Rays seem to anticipate he’ll be back when first eligible on Wednesday. Lowe already had a minimal IL stay this month because of oblique tightness. The two-time All-Star has had an impressive year around the recent injuries. He’s batting .269/.320/.480 across 350 trips to the plate — including a massive .296/.352/.556 line following a dismal April. His 19 home runs rank second at the position behind Ketel Marte’s 20.

Houston could plug Lowe in at the keystone and use Jose Altuve as a primary designated hitter until Yordan Alvarez returns from a hand fracture. At that point, Altuve could return to left field and push Taylor Trammell, who is hitting well in 25 games but has a limited MLB track record, to a fourth outfield role.

The Mets don’t have a huge need on the dirt, but they’ve reportedly considered moving one of their controllable infielders (Mark Vientos, Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, Luisangel Acuña) for help elsewhere on the roster. Lowe would be a significant offensive upgrade over Baty, who is playing regularly at second base. It makes sense that the Mets at least gauged the Rays’ asking price, but there’s no indication they’ve made a huge push. President of baseball operations David Stearns has cast the bullpen as his top priority, with secondary interests ranging from the rotation to center field.

Lowe is playing on a $10.5MM salary, around $3.35MM of which will be owed after the deadline. The Rays can keep him around for another season on an $11.5MM club option. That comes with a $500K buyout.

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