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Archives for 2017

Minor MLB Transactions: 12/30/17

By Mark Polishuk | December 30, 2017 at 7:21pm CDT

Some minor moves from around baseball…

  • The Padres released right-hander Jake Smith earlier this month, according to Baseball America’s Matt Eddy.  Originally a 48th-round pick for the Giants in the 2011 draft, Smith has a 3.23 ERA, 11.9 K/9 and 2.86 K/BB rate over 253 2/3 minor league innings, working as a reliever in all but five of his 186 career appearances.  He managed just 26 2/3 IP in 2017, however, with injuries limiting his time on the field.  Smith’s only MLB experience consists of four innings for San Diego in 2016.
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San Diego Padres Transactions Jake Smith

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Rockies Notes: Davis, Bridich, Holland, Arenado, Harrison

By Mark Polishuk | December 30, 2017 at 6:11pm CDT

The signings of Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw, and Jake McGee have given the Rockies a deep and experienced relief corps, though ESPN.com’s Keith Law (Insider subscription required and recommended) wonders if the team needed to go to such expensive lengths to reinforce its bullpen.  Other teams who have relied on excellent pens in recent seasons, Law notes, have generally used their own homegrown arms or low-cost converted starters as relievers rather than sign several pricey free agents.  Law also isn’t a fan of the three-year, $52MM Davis contract in general, citing Davis’ injuries and dip in performance over the last two seasons from his 2014-15 dominance.

Here’s more on the Rockies from GM Jeff Bridich’s chat with reporters (including MLB.com’s Thomas Harding and the Denver Post’s Nick Groke) on Friday…

  • Despite the mutual interest between Colorado and former closer Greg Holland, the two sides weren’t able to reach agreement on a reunion, with Bridich saying two weeks ago that the team had made Holland a “strong offer” to re-sign.  It seems as if the Rockies then made a swift pivot to Davis, as while Davis and the team had been linked earlier this winter, Bridich said the deal was made just within the last week.
  • After so heavily remaking the bullpen, the Rockies are likely done with pitching additions altogether.  “I’d be very surprised if we added another reliever or a starter,” Bridich said.
  • The next step would seem to be addressing needs in the corner outfield or at first base.  In Harding’s words, Bridich was “open, but non-committal” about the idea of re-signing Carlos Gonzalez, with the GM simply noting that Gonzalez was “part of the market.”
  • While Bridich didn’t put a timetable on extension talks with Nolan Arenado, “there definitely are conversations that will happen” about locking up the star third baseman.  Teams generally wait until Spring Training or until significant offseason business has been concluded to discuss extensions with their players, and the negotiations with Arenado will no doubt be particularly in-depth given the huge money needed to keep him at Coors Field.  Arenado is scheduled to hit free agency after the 2019 season, when he’ll still just be 28 years old and in the midst of his prime.  Arenado and the Rockies agreed to a two-year, $29.5MM deal last offseason to cover two arbitration years, and Arenado has one final arb-eligible season remaining in 2019 due to his Super Two status.
  • “I’m not sure where the Josh Harrison stuff comes from,” Bridich said in regards to rumors connecting the Rockies to the versatile Pirates infielder/outfielder.  It should be noted that this isn’t technically a denial of any trade interest, though Harrison is perhaps a better fit on a team that could make fuller use of his multi-positional ability.  The Rockies have Arenado and DJ LeMahieu locked in at third and second base, respectively, so Harrison would spend most of his time as a corner outfielder if he did land on Colorado’s roster.  (Then again, given that the Rox did sign Ian Desmond last winter with the intent of using him as a first baseman, maybe we shouldn’t rule out any outside-the-box ideas in regards to this team.)
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Colorado Rockies Pittsburgh Pirates Carlos Gonzalez Greg Holland Jeff Bridich Josh Harrison Nolan Arenado Wade Davis

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How Teams Have Addressed Their Weakest Positions Of 2017

By Mark Polishuk | December 30, 2017 at 3:57pm CDT

While this winter has been notably thin on major transactions, several clubs have already made big strides to shore up the positions that plagued them last season.  Baseball Reference breaks down how all 30 teams fared in 2017 on a position-by-position basis, as ranked by bWAR.  Here’s a rundown of what each team has done to address its most glaring weak point…

Angels (DH, -1.3 bWAR): Shohei Ohtani’s attempt to be a two-way player in the big leagues will be one of baseball’s most fascinating stories in 2018, and the Angels are intent on giving the Japanese star some DH at-bats on days he isn’t pitching.  Even if it takes a while for Ohtani to adjust to MLB pitching, there’s really nowhere to go but up for the Angels at the DH spot in the wake of Albert Pujols’ career-worst year.  The Halos can only hope that the slugger (owed $114MM through 2021) still has something left in the tank as he enters his age-38 season.  One plus is that Pujols has enjoyed a normal offseason this year, as opposed to surgeries and rehabs in the previous two winters, and L.A. hopes to even deploy Pujols at first base for a couple of games per week to accommodate Ohtani at designated hitter.

Astros (DH, 0.5 bWAR): Age finally caught up with Carlos Beltran in 2017, as the veteran struggled in what ended up being his final Major League season.  With Beltran now retired, the Astros plan to use Evan Gattis as their primary designated hitter, though you could see several players rotated through the DH spot to provide rest and at-bats to Houston’s wide array of talented hitters.

Athletics (Catcher, -0.2 bWAR): Bruce Maxwell, Josh Phegley, and Stephen Vogt (who is now a Brewer) didn’t give the A’s much behind the plate last year, and the position was further complicated after Maxwell was arrested on charges of aggravated assault with a deadly weapon and disorderly conduct.  While GM David Forst said in November that the team still expects Maxwell to be its primary catcher next season, Oakland stands out as a potential dark horse candidate for a catching upgrade.  Jonathan Lucroy and Alex Avila are notable names on the free agent market, and J.T. Realmuto seems to be available if the A’s are willing to meet the Marlins’ very high asking price.

Blue Jays (Right field, -1.4 bWAR): The Jose Bautista era ended on a sour note, as the longtime slugger delivered sub-replacement numbers in his final season in Toronto.  Teoscar Hernandez is the favorite for the right field job after his strong late-season debut with the Jays, though it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Toronto make a big acquisition for either corner outfield slot, especially since the team’s contention window is already closing.  The Blue Jays have reportedly checked in on several notable outfielders, including J.D. Martinez, Lorenzo Cain, and Jay Bruce.

Braves (Left field, -1.6 bWAR): This was the lowest bWAR of any left field situation in the game last season, largely thanks to Matt Kemp’s sub-replacement level performance.  Kemp, however, is no longer in the mix after a unique five-player trade with the Dodgers that re-arranged both teams’ salary commitments and created a much-needed opening in Atlanta’s outfield for star prospect Ronald Acuna.  It isn’t clear if Acuna will play in left or right field when he arrives in the bigs, so veteran Nick Markakis (if he isn’t himself traded) could be taking over for Kemp in left field on Opening Day.

Brewers (Center field, 1.0 bWAR): Keon Broxton is the incumbent with Brett Phillips on hand as a platoon option, though star prospect Lewis Brinson is expected to work his way into the lineup in 2018.  While Milwaukee’s young center field mix didn’t produce much in 2017, therefore, the team is still quite comfortable with the position going forward.  Broxton has even received some trade attention, so it’s possible the Brew Crew could clear a path for Brinson to make an even earlier impact.

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Cardinals (Right field, 1.4 bWAR): The Cards were looking to both acquire and move outfielders this winter, as they looked to land a big bat while dealing from their surplus of young and/or struggling younger outfielders.  After getting in deep with the Marlins on the Giancarlo Stanton talks, St. Louis ended up landing another Miami outfielder in Marcell Ozuna.  His addition will shift Tommy Pham to center field and Dexter Fowler into right, as even Fowler’s middling 2017 numbers provide a marked upgrade over what Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk provided last year.  The team dealt from its surplus by trading Piscotty to the A’s, though the Cardinals have enough depth in both the outfield and infield that they still have the pieces for another big swap.

Cubs (Left field, 1.0 bWAR): It’s too soon for Chicago to give up on Kyle Schwarber, especially now that the slugger is another year removed from major knee surgery.  The Cubs pride themselves on multi-positional roster depth, so if Schwarber needs to be spelled, Ian Happ or Ben Zobrist can also handle left field, though Zobrist is also looking for a bounce-back year.

Diamondbacks (Left field, 0.4 bWAR): With J.D. Martinez unlikely to return to Arizona’s outfield, the D’Backs are hoping that Yasmany Tomas is healthy (after groin injuries and core surgery) and finally primed for a true breakout season.  The team really has no choice but to be patient, as Tomas is owed $42.5MM through the 2020 season and has little trade value.

Dodgers (Center field, 1.4 bWAR): “Weak spot” is kind of a relative term on a stacked Dodgers roster.  Breakout star Chris Taylor got more and more time in center as the season went on, and Taylor looks to get the bulk of the playing time up the middle this season with Joc Pederson shifting over to left field.  The Dodgers have a lot of platoon depth on hand to further augment their outfield, plus the impending arrival of top prospect Alex Verdugo.  A big trade can’t be ruled out, as Taylor’s versatility allows L.A. to potentially shift him elsewhere around the diamond.

Giants (Center field, -1.7 bWAR): San Francisco’s outfield was an overall disaster in 2017, with all three positions delivering negative-bWAR totals.  The Giants have been aggressively searching the market for all sorts of outfield help, and made one potential addition-by-subtraction move by trading Denard Span to the Rays as part of the Evan Longoria deal.  Span’s inclusion in the trade was mostly due to offset salaries, though his declining center field glove made him a liability in spacious AT&T Park.  The Giants have checked in on numerous trade and free agent options for center, though they could end up going with defensively-gifted prospect Steven Duggar as long as they can find at least one big bat for the corner spots.

Indians (Right field, 1.1 bWAR): The Lonnie Chisenhall/Brandon Guyer platoon looks to be in effect for 2018 at the moment, though the Tribe has multiple other outfield options (Abraham Almonte, Greg Allen, Tyler Naquin, and maybe even minors signing Melvin Upton) to provide depth not just in right field, but also for the injury-plagued Michael Brantley in left.

Mariners (First base, 0.7 bWAR): GM Jerry Dipoto made a play for what he hopes is a long-term asset at first base by acquiring Ryon Healy from the A’s in mid-November.  Healy has shown little plate discipline but some solid pop during his brief big league career, and he’ll now get a clear everyday opportunity in Seattle.  Dan Vogelbach and Rule 5 Draft pick Mike Ford could provide a left-handed hitting complement to Healy at the position.

Marlins (Bullpen, -0.9 bWAR): Miami’s relief corps was the worst in the game by the bWAR metric, though with another rebuild underway, the Marlins are unlikely to do much in the way of high-profile additions.  The bullpen will be the testing ground for whatever young arms don’t make the starting rotation, plus maybe a couple of low-cost veterans added on minor league contracts.

Mets (Third base/shortstop, 0.2 bWAR): The left side of the infield was a problem spot for the Mets all season, though they already seem to have the two positions settled for next year.  Top prospect Amed Rosario will be the everyday shortstop, while New York exercised its $8.5MM club option on Asdrubal Cabrera and will use him regularly at third base.  David Wright could also be a factor at the hot corner, though it isn’t known if Wright will ever be able to take the field again given his injury history.

Nationals (Catcher, -1.7 bWAR): No team got less from its catching situation in 2017, as Matt Wieters delivered a terrible year both offensively and as a pitch-framer.  Wieters exercised his $10.5MM player option for 2018, leaving the Nats stuck with a major hole in their lineup unless Wieters can get on track after three seasons of steady offensive decline.  The team may need to get creative to upgrade at catcher given Wieters’ salary, though the Nats have already asked the Marlins about Realmuto’s availability.

Orioles (Right field/DH, 0.0 bWAR): Baltimore’s much-maligned rotation managed a cumulative 0.1 bWAR, so the right field and designated hitter positions were actually the Orioles’ biggest weak spots last season.  Mark Trumbo’s poor season factored into both positions, while Seth Smith could hit but wasn’t much of a fielder, and Joey Rickard flashed a strong glove but provided nothing at the plate.  Top prospect Austin Hays is expected to provide help in right perhaps as early as Opening Day, while the Orioles will hope Trumbo (owed $26MM over the next two years) can rebound.

Padres (Catcher, -0.5 bWAR): Austin Hedges’ outstanding defense wasn’t enough to offset the severe lack of offensive production from both Hedges and backups Hector Sanchez and Luis Torrens.  San Diego is committed to Hedges as its catcher of the future, and is certainly willing to allow him some growing pains at the plate if he keeps displaying such excellent glovework.

Phillies (First base, -0.2 bWAR): Rhys Hoskins’ late-season explosion came too late to save the Phils’ woeful first base production, plus Hoskins also spent half his time as a left fielder.  The team’s right fielders were next on the list with a cumulative -0.1 bWAR, so both positions were upgraded by Philadelphia’s surprising move to sign Carlos Santana.  The longtime Cleveland slugger instantly provides a big boost at first, while Hoskins’ move to left field and Aaron Altherr becoming the regular right fielder will reinforce both corner positions, and keep shaky defender Nick Williams as a part-timer.

Pirates (Right field, -0.5 bWAR): Gregory Polanco’s injury-riddled season left both the outfielder and his team wishing for better health in 2018.  While the Bucs could add another outfielder either as a backup or as a starter if Andrew McCutchen is traded, Polanco’s spot is safe.

Rangers (Second base, -0.3 bWAR): After Rougned Odor signed a six-year, $49.5MM extension in late March, he took an enormous step back at the plate, hitting just .204/.252/.397 over 651 PA despite 30 home runs.  The Rangers can only hope that his 2017 was just an aberration after making such a big financial commitment to the young second baseman.

Rays (Catcher, 0.6 bWAR): This is hardly the first time that catcher has been the weakest spot on the diamond in Tampa, though the team has at least a short-term solution in place in Wilson Ramos.  His recovery from knee surgery kept him from making his 2017 debut until late June, and the Rays are hoping another offseason of rest and recovery will get Ramos back in his 2016 form.

Reds (Starting pitching, -1.8 bWAR): After posting the lowest cumulative bWAR of any rotation in baseball, the rebuilding Reds won’t be making any big signings, aside from maybe an inning-eating veteran on a minor league contract.  Instead, Cincinnati is counting on better health and continued development from its young arms.

Red Sox (DH, -0.1 bWAR): Shoulder problems bothered Hanley Ramirez for much of the year, and the Sox are hoping that surgery can help the slugger return to his excellent 2016 form.  There continue to be rumblings that Boston is interested in landing a big bat, however, so Ramirez could potentially find himself in a DH timeshare or, health permitting, seeing more time at first base depending on what other hitter the Red Sox may or may not add.

Rockies (Left field/right field, -0.5 bWAR): Carlos Gonzalez and Ian Desmond’s struggles are well-documented, though it’s worth noting that while Gerardo Parra hit .309/.341/.452 over 425 PA, that still worked out to a below-average 90 wRC+ for a player who called Coors Field home.  It doesn’t seem like CarGo will return and, with the option of using Desmond at first base, Colorado could still make a big splash for corner outfield help.

Royals (Shortstop, -0.2 bWAR): Alcides Escobar’s glove has always bailed out his subpar bat, though since his fielding was only decent in 2017, it led to an overall poor season for the veteran and it gave K.C. the lowest bWAR total of any team at shortstop.  With Escobar now a free agent, the Royals will go with young Raul Mondesi Jr. as their new shortstop.  Mondesi may be able to top Escobar’s bWAR based on defense alone in 2018, and his impressive Triple-A numbers suggest a lot of upside at the plate.

Tigers (DH, -0.3 bWAR): The chief concern is that Victor Martinez is healthy after twice suffering irregular heartbeat issues last year and undergoing chronic ablation surgery in September.  The hope is that V-Mart is able to return without any further issues, and if he displays some of his old hitting form, the Tigers could then potentially shop him at the trade deadline.  The rebuilding team could also give Martinez extra rest to give Miguel Cabrera some DH days or to give at-bats to some younger players.

Twins (Bullpen, 1.6 bWAR): Minnesota will take part in the Fernando Rodney Experience after signing the veteran closer to a one-year, $4.25MM deal with a club option for 2019.  Rodney steps into the closer’s job while newly-signed Zach Duke will add another left-handed element (along with Taylor Rogers) to the pen.  Some more moves are likely to come, and a reunion with free agent Matt Belisle can’t be ruled out.  While the Twins certainly needed to upgrade their bullpen, it’s worth noting that no team had more bWAR from its “worst position” than the Twins received from their relief corps.  This high talent floor on the roster may explain how the Twins made their surprise run to a wild card berth.

White Sox (Center field, -0.8 fWAR): Injuries shortened Leury Garcia’s season and kept Charlie Tilson off the field entirely in 2017, while Adam Engel provided speed and defense but no hitting whatsoever.  Garcia looks like the favorite for the bulk of action in center to begin the year in Chicago, though this position is very much in flux depending on Tilson’s health.

Yankees (First base, 0.0 bWAR): After missing all of 2016 and most of 2017 due to injury, Greg Bird showed enough down the stretch to reinforce the Yankees’ confidence in him as their first baseman of the future.  It’s possible that a veteran could be signed to a minors deal to join Tyler Austin as the primary backups at the position, as Chase Headley is no longer around to provide cover at first base.

Note: Designated hitter was technically the weakest position by bWAR for several National League teams, though those weren’t counted since NL teams so rarely have a DH in the lineup.

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MLBTR Originals

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AL East Notes: Yankees, Red Sox, Machado

By Connor Byrne | December 30, 2017 at 2:45pm CDT

The latest from the American League East…

  • While the Yankees have been trying to trade for a starting pitcher recently, Joel Sherman of the New York Post argues that the infield should be a greater priority for the club. The Yankees have a full complement of starters on hand, after all, while they’ve lost second baseman Starlin Castro and the third base duo of Chase Headley and Todd Frazier since last season. With that in mind, Sherman runs down a host of veteran infielders the Yankees could add either via free agency or the trade market. Notably, Sherman senses that the Yankees have never been bullish on free agent infielder Brandon Phillips, which would seem to rule out one potential target. Sherman goes on to suggest that the Yankees have had questions about whether Athletics infielder Jed Lowrie has the temperament to play in New York. So, while Lowrie looks like a prime trade candidate, it doesn’t appear he’ll end up in the Bronx.
  • Rob Bradford of WEEI explains why the Red Sox’s interest in Orioles infielder Manny Machado is unlikely to lead to a deal, contending that the two sides don’t match up well in a trade. The Red Sox already have a quality shortstop in Xander Bogaerts, whom they could theoretically package with a pitcher(s) to land Machado, but that would perhaps be too risky on the team’s part. Machado is only under control for another season, while Bogaerts has two more years left. What’s more, the Red Sox don’t seem to have the high-level pitching to entice the Orioles, as Bradford notes that top prospects Jason Groome. Tanner Houck and Bryan Mata haven’t gotten past the Single-A level yet.
  • The Red Sox haven’t participated in the robust relief market this winter, and it’s likely to stay that way until they have an answer on free agent slugger J.D. Martinez’s future, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald writes. If Martinez signs elsewhere, the Red Sox could use some of the money they were going to give him on relief help, observes Mastrodonato, who points out that their righty-heavy bullpen could use some balance. Tony Watson and Brian Duensing are among the top southpaw setup men currently without teams.
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Boston Red Sox New York Yankees Brandon Phillips Jed Lowrie Manny Machado

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Padres To Sign Chris Young

By Jeff Todd | December 30, 2017 at 1:30pm CDT

SATURDAY: Young’s incentives begin at five games started and 30 innings pitched, and they can max out at approximately 30 starts and 120 innings, per Chris Cotillo of SB Nation (Twitter link).

FRIDAY, 8:58pm: Young can earn a $1MM base salary if he makes the team, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick tweets. The deal also includes as much as $6MM in potential incentives, with games started and innings pitched providing the standard.

6:50pm: The Padres are adding another former starter on a minors deal after striking agreement with Chris Young, according to Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune (via Twitter). The 38-year-old will join a Spring Training rotation battle that now also includes Tyson Ross.

Young, 38, opened the 2017 campaign with the Royals but was released in late June. He has rested up since, with reports indicating that he intended to ramp back up for another attempt at what would be his 14th MLB campaign.

At this point, it’s difficult to expect much out of Young, who stumbled to a 6.52 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 in 118 2/3 frames in the majors since the start of 2016. Interestingly, that slippage has occurred even with Young sporting a swinging-strike rate of over 11% — levels he had maintained over a full season only once in his career — by drastically increasing his slider usage. Then again, he has also been touched for 2.7 home runs per nine over the past two seasons.

Perhaps, though, Young can still find a way to be effective, particularly after a lengthy layoff. Before boosting his whiff rate, he had actually managed two consecutive seasons with excellent results. In 288 1/3 frames between 2014 and 2015, he worked to a 3.40 ERA. And he has continued to post above-average infield fly rates even as the other tinkering has left him prone to the long ball.

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San Diego Padres Transactions Chris Young

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Taking Inventory: Miami Marlins

By Kyle Downing | December 30, 2017 at 12:31pm CDT

In an effort to cut payroll, the new Marlins ownership group (headlined by Derek Jeter) has already kicked off a fire sale of major league assets. They’ve traded three significant players so far in Giancarlo Stanton, Dee Gordon and Marcell Ozuna, and only the latter of the three netted any significant prospect haul. Miami has succeeded in getting big salaries off the books, but their farm system still looks bleak and lacks top-rated prospects (though some pitchers in their system have upside).

So while the team has already completed its stated salary-slashing objective, the moves made so far have put the franchise in an in-between kind of state. Miami finished last season with a 77-85 record, and then traded away three players who were worth a combined 15 fWAR. The only major league asset who came back in return was Starlin Castro, who was worth about 2 fWAR in 2017. All told, the Marlins’ roster looks about 13 wins worse than last season, which in theory would make them about as good as last year’s Tigers club.

Of course, it doesn’t exactly work that way, but the writing on the wall here is that the Marlins aren’t going to do a whole lot of winning next season. They’d face enormous odds in challenging the Nationals for the NL East crown. Aside from that, their farm system is dwarfed by those of the division-rival Braves and Phillies, both of whom are on the rise. Clearly the club isn’t planning on improving the team through free agency, as that would counteract the enormous effort the team made to reduce payroll. As such, there appears to be no reason to stop selling now. There are a few players on the roster who could help the Fish add significant prospects to their minor league ranks and improve the organization’s future outlook…

Two Years of Control

Starlin Castro, 2B ($22MM owed through 2019, including $1MM buyout of $16MM option for 2020): When Castro came to Miami in the Stanton deal, trade speculation began immediately. There’s probably some surplus value to be had in the 27-year-old’s contract considering his reasonable salary and the fact that he’s still in his prime. With the Marlins having already met their payroll-related goals, they probably even have the flexibility to pay some of his salary in order to get better prospects in exchange. Castro is coming off a .300/.338/.454 season, but poor defensive play at second limits his value to an extent.

Longer-Term Assets

J.T. Realmuto, C ($4.2MM projected arb salary for 2018): MLBTR has already talked about Realmuto’s trade candidacy at length this month (including an in-depth piece on his market), so I’ll keep this short. Realmuto has already requested a trade, and although he doesn’t have any real leverage in the matter, he seems a likely candidate to be wearing another uniform even before he hits free agency following the 2020 season. The Marlins catcher was worth at least 3.5 fWAR in each of the past two seasons, and plenty of contenders and up-and-comers would love to have that kind of value coming from a premium position on the diamond. It would, however, take a reportedly “huge overpay” to pry him out of Miami’s hands.

"<strongChristian Yelich, OF ($44.5MM owed through 2021, including $1.25MM buyout of $15MM option for 2022): Yelich has also been one of the more common names to pop up in trade rumors this offseason. He’s easily the Marlins’ most valuable asset; the former first round pick has been worth about 16 fWAR across the past four seasons combined. With five more years of team control, however, there’s at least a chance he could be part of the next winning Marlins club at a very reasonable price, so there’s less of a reason for the team to move him there is to move other assets. Among the plusses for Yelich are good defense in the outfield, a 10.7% career walk rate and improved baserunning ability.

Dan Straily, RHP ($4.6MM projected arbitration salary for 2018): While Straily isn’t as talented (or receiving as much trade attention) as elite options like Michael Fulmer, Chris Archer and Gerrit Cole, he’s a league-average MLB talent who could be made available in a thin and expensive market for pitching. Straily posted a 4.26 ERA in 2017 along with a 2.83 K/BB ratio and comes with three years of team control.

Justin Bour, 1B ($3.5MM projected arbitration salary for 2018): Amidst Marlins rumors, it’s somewhat of a surprise to me that Bour’s name hasn’t been mentioned more often. Miami’s left-handed-hitting first baseman enjoyed a breakout season in 2017 prior to an oblique injury. Upon his return in early September, he picked up right where he left off, and ultimately finished the season with an outstanding .289/.366/.536 slash line to go with 25 home runs across just 429 plate appearances. With the Rockies, Angels and Mariners still looking for first base help, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the market for Bour heat up at some point. He wouldn’t come cheap, though, as he’s cost-effective and controllable through arbitration from 2018-2020.

Kyle Barraclough, RHRP (League minimum salary for 2018): Barraclough has a sky-high career strikeout rate 12.05 K/9), but carries the downside of an equally absurd walk rate (5.52 BB/9). The net result is a sort of effectively-wild performance that’s led to fantastic career run-prevention numbers, headlined by a 2.87 ERA. With elite relievers becoming more and more in demand, it’s conceivable Barraclough could net a hefty return.

Derek Dietrich, INF ($3.2MM projected arbitration salary for 2018): Though he’s not a full-time player, Dietrich has managed to accrue at least 1.5 fWAR in each of the past two seasons, and can play both second and third base. He’d be a cheap utility infield option on a contending team, and comes with three years of team control. He hit .249/.334/.424 in 2017 with 13 homers, making him a nearly average offensive player at 99 wRC+.

Salary Dump Candidates

Wei-Yin Chen, LHP ($60MM owed through 2020, with a $16MM vesting option for 2021): Simply put, this offseason would be the worst possible time to trade Chen. After missing most of the season due to elbow issues, Chen returned to make just four appearances out of the bullpen in September prior to being shut down. While he was generally good when on the field (3.82 ERA, 3.73 FIP), the Marlins would have an incredibly difficult time trying to move any of his salary until he can settle concerns about his elbow.

Martin Prado, 3B ($28.5MM owed through 2019): Prado is coming off a dreadful 2017 season in which he was able to muster just 147 plate appearances due to multiple injuries. He posted just a 67 wRC+ across that time, and will enter the 2018 season at 34 years of age. There have been reports that the Marlins might try to attach Prado to a trade of a more valuable asset in order to clear his salary, but like Chen, it might be the wrong time to trade him. After all, he averaged 3 WAR from 2014-2016 thanks to a .295/.341/.407 slash line and elite defense at the hot corner.

Brad Ziegler, RHRP ($9MM salary for 2018): The issue with Ziegler is his recent inability to miss bats. The righty struck out fewer than five batters per nine innings in 2018 and experienced a steep drop in velocity on his sinker. All told, Ziegler was tagged for 25 earned runs in 47 innings. Perhaps he’s another candidate to re-established value prior to the trade deadline, but he’s also 38 years old; it’s also possible the Marlins could be better served simply trying to find a taker for as much of his salary as possible.

Junichi Tazawa, RHRP ($7MM salary for 2018): See Ziegler. Okay, not exactly, but Tazawa’s outlook isn’t much more promising other than the fact that he’s seven years younger. The righty is two years removed from his last respectable season. Last year was his worst performance yet: he was valued below replacement level thanks to a 5.69 ERA and 4.96 FIP. Miami’s best chance to move his salary would be to try to include him in a trade along with Realmuto, Yelich or another contract with significant excess value.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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MLBTR Originals Miami Marlins Taking Inventory 2017 Brad Ziegler Christian Yelich Dan Straily Derek Dietrich J.T. Realmuto Junichi Tazawa Justin Bour Kyle Barraclough Martin Prado Starlin Castro Wei-Yin Chen

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National League Notes: Rockies, Realmuto, Yelich, Taillon

By Kyle Downing | December 30, 2017 at 9:31am CDT

Dave Cameron of Fangraphs postulates that the Rockies need to upgrade more than just their bullpen if they hope to be successful in 2018. He wonders if their additions so far “haven’t improved them as much as prevented them from getting worse.” At first glance, one could say that Wade Davis and Bryan Shaw are probably improvements over Greg Holland and Pat Neshek, respectively. However, considering the low WAR contribution from relievers in comparison to other players, those upgrades seem marginal. The team still has big questions to answer at first base, and in the outfield, so although they seem to have the best bullpen in the NL as it stands right now, they need to make impactful additions in other areas or rely on significant improvements from members of their current roster. After all, projections have them significantly behind the Dodgers in the NL West, as well as St. Louis and Arizona in the Wild Card race.

Questions continue to pop up when looking towards the future. Cameron notes that the 2017 iteration of the Rockies worked in large part because Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado provided them with over 12 fWAR at just $20MM between them. Unfortunately for Colorado, Blackmon is set to reach free agency at the end of 2018, and it would take a significant raise on his current salary to bring him back. The same is true for Arenado the year following. The bullpen contracts the team dished out this year will cost them something in the neighborhood of $35MM per season through 2020; that puts a significant constraint on their ability to retain their stars or further build through free agency. Cameron’s article raises some important questions about the Rockies’ offseason moves so far, and is worth a full read.

More news from around the National League as we approach New Year’s Eve…

  • Speculation surrounding Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto and outfielder Christian Yelich has been heating up lately, and Joe Frisaro of MLB.com reports that while the club is willing to listen on their two most valuable remaining trade assets, actually moving either player would require a “huge overpay”. Frisaro adds that the team is not looking to “water down” the return for either of them, making a potential salary dump inclusion of Martin Prado or Brad Ziegler less likely. MLBTR profiled Realmuto’s trade candidacy on Christmas Day, listing the Nationals, Rockies and Diamondbacks as good fits in theory. He’s projected for just a $4.2MM salary next season, and can be controlled through arbitration for two more years after that. As for Yelich, he’s been worth an average of 4 fWAR in each of the past four seasons and is owed just $43.25MM through 2021 thanks to a team-friendly contract extension.
  • Jameson Taillon had a tough battle with cancer last season, causing him to miss significant time during the season. But the resilient Pirates righty is feeling confident headed into the 2018 season, and Adam Berry of MLB.com has the inside scoop. “You spend time in the clubhouse and know we have a lot of good guys as humans that are extremely determined to get better,” Taillon said. He’s reportedly working on new pitch grips and developing plans for how to attack hitters in the upcoming season. Taillon finished last season with a 4.44 ERA, though his 3.48 FIP paints a decidedly more attractive picture of his potential.
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Colorado Rockies Miami Marlins Pittsburgh Pirates Christian Yelich J.T. Realmuto Jameson Taillon

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American League Notes: Machado, Indians, Orioles

By Jeff Todd | December 30, 2017 at 12:10am CDT

The Red Sox are “showing continued trade interest” in star Orioles infielder Manny Machado, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). That said, it’s unclear just how strong a connection there may be between the division rivals. While not specifically referencing Morosi’s report, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com tweets that interest from Boston has been “overstated.” Overall, it’s hard to assess the current state of the Machado market; while a variety of organizations are no doubt still intrigued at the idea of a deal, there’s no real indication that there have been changes in the offers or the asking price.

Here’s more from the American League:

  • While the Indians have pushed their payroll upwards in recent years, Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon-Journal writes that the period of growth seems to be at an end. Despite attempting to re-sign Carlos Santana, it seems unlikely the organization will pursue any further major free agents after landing Yonder Alonso on a fairly modest two-year deal. Cleveland’s front office is obviously still looking to improve in the near-term, but sustainability is a key consideration as well.
  • Regardless of what happens with Machado, the Orioles are still in need of a lefty bat, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes. He explains that it still seems more likely the missing southpaw stick will arrive in the form of a corner outfielder. While the organization has engaged in “internal discussions” regarding Jon Jay, says Kubatko, it does not seem there’s real interest there. At this point, though, it does not seem as if there’s any real indication at all which way the O’s may go.
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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Cleveland Guardians Jon Jay Manny Machado

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Heyman’s Latest: Nats, Yelich, Giants, Napoli

By Jeff Todd | December 29, 2017 at 8:53pm CDT

In his latest run of notes from around the game, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag touches upon a variety of topics. Many are covered in an omnibus post, while others get their own full treatment. Here are a few highlights with particular hot stove relevance:

  • The Nationals have put out feelers on the top available relievers, says Heyman, even though the club surely isn’t desperate to find a new option in the ninth inning. While Wade Davis is now off the board, it seems Greg Holland could yet be an option for the Nats. And of broader importance, the report suggests that further bullpen upgrades are still under consideration as the team considers how it can put the finishing touches on an already-strong roster.
  • Numerous teams are obviously preparing to pursue Marlins outfielder Christian Yelich, who the Fish are reportedly increasingly willing to deal. Just how likely is a deal? Heyman cites a few sources who describe the situation as one in which the club is making Yelich and teammate J.T. Realmuto available in talks. Among the organizations with some level of interest in Yelich, per Heyman, are the Diamondbacks, Braves, and Giants. No doubt there are plenty of others, too, that will line up for both players.
  • Speaking of options, the Giants are evidently still looking at quite a range of options in the outfield. Heyman says that trade candidates include not only Yelich but also Andrew McCutchen and Juan Lagares. (Others, of course, have linked the team to Billy Hamilton throughout the winter.) The free agent market is still chock full of possibilities, and Heyman says the team is still a potential landing spot for top option J.D. Martinez as well as the previously rumored Jay Bruce. Beyond that, Carlos Gomez, Carlos Gonzalez, Jarrod Dyson, and Jon Jay seem to be on the radar for the Giants.
  • There have been some conflicting signals floating around on slugger Mike Napoli, it seems clear there’s serious interest between him and the Twins. The veteran slugger hasn’t lined up yet with Minnesota, but Heyman says some believe it’s “something of a likelihood” that a deal will ultimately be struck between the sides. Of course, there are still quite a few other defensively-limited sluggers on the market, but it seems the Twins are focused on Napoli both to add some pop and provide a strong veteran presence to the young squad.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Atlanta Braves Miami Marlins Minnesota Twins San Francisco Giants Washington Nationals Andrew McCutchen Carlos Gomez Carlos Gonzalez Christian Yelich Greg Holland J.D. Martinez J.T. Realmuto Jarrod Dyson Jay Bruce Jon Jay Juan Lagares Mike Napoli Wade Davis

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Yankees Re-Sign CC Sabathia

By Kyle Downing | December 29, 2017 at 7:54pm CDT

The Yankees have officially agreed to terms with left-hander CC Sabathia on a one-year contract worth a reported $10MM. Sabathia, a client of Roc Nation Sports, can also earn $500K apiece upon reaching 155, 165, 175, and 185 innings. He will have full no-trade protection by operation of ten-and-five rights.

CC Sabathia

Sabathia has spent the past nine seasons with the Yankees, and he’ll return to a rotation that also includes Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, Sonny Gray and Jordan Montgomery. It’s not a surprise that he’s returning to the Bronx; MLBTR predicted he’d re-sign with the Bombers, and Joel Sherman of the NY Post reports (via Sabathia’s agent, Kyle Thousand) that the Yankees “always wanted Sabathia back and he did not want to leave.” He also mentions that the Yankees would like to add one more starter, likely through a trade. Sherman adds in a subsequent tweet that while there were competitive offers for the lefty that made Sabathia take his time, he feels there is “unfinished business to attend to” with the Yanks.

[Related: Updated New York Yankees depth chart]

Sabathia had a respectable 2017 campaign, posting a 3.69 ERA that was his best mark since 2012. He induced soft contact off the bats of opposing hitters 24.1% of the time while posting a 2.40 K/BB ratio and 49.9% ground ball rate. Sabathia’s solid 2017 performance continued into the postseason, where he allowed just five earned runs in 19 innings across four starts, striking out a batter per inning. Perhaps some of his success this past season can be attributed to less exposure to hitters the third time through the order; Sabathia averaged fewer than 5 2/3 innings per start during the regular season and below 5 during the playoffs.

Sabathia was a first round pick of the Indians all the way back in 1998. He was excellent in his seven full seasons for Cleveland, including his Cy Young-winning performance in 2007. The Indians traded their prized lefty to the Brewers in 2008 in exchange for Matt LaPorta, Rob Bryson and a player-to-be-named-later that ended up being Michael Brantley. He hit the open market following an excellent stretch run in Milwaukee and signed a then-record-setting seven-year, $161MM pact with the Yankees, and has called New York his home ever since (he signed an extension with the club back in October of 2011). His five excellent starts in the 2009 postseason went a long way in helping the Bombers win a world championship that year; he managed a sparkling 1.98 ERA across 36 1/3 innings.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter links) reported the agreement. Jon Heyman of Fan Rag added details on the incentives (via Twitter). 

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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New York Yankees Transactions C.C. Sabathia

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