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2019-20 Offseason in Review

Offseason In Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

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The Pirates traded their best player (again) and appeared more intent on cutting payroll than giving the appearance of trying.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Pirates offseason kicked off in bizarre fashion, with former manager Clint Hurdle telling The Athletic’s Stephen J. Nesbitt that he’d received assurances that he’d be retained into 2020 — only to be fired days later. General manager Neal Huntington headed up the search for a new skipper … until owner Bob Nutting canned Huntington nearly a month into that effort. A month after the regular season ended, the Pirates had no manager or general manager and weren’t close to making a hire for either vacancy. They were represented by interim GM Kevan Graves at the annual General Managers Meetings and, shortly after that event’s conclusion, hired former Red Sox GM Ben Cherington to replace Huntington. Another 10 days later, Pittsburgh hired Twins bench coach Derek Shelton as their new manager.

By the time the Pirates had both their GM and manager in place, the likes of Yasmani Grandal, Travis d’Arnaud, Chris Martin, Will Smith and Kyle Gibson had each already signed as free agents. The Brewers had traded Chase Anderson to the Blue Jays and orchestrated an interesting four-player swap with the Padres. But getting a late start to the offseason ultimately didn’t impact the Bucs much, because as the winter wore on, it became clear that the team wasn’t planning on making any notable additions.

Rather, the largest move the Pirates made this winter was shipping their best player, Starling Marte, to the Diamondbacks in a trade that trimmed payroll and added some high-upside but very young talent to the farm ranks. Liover Peguero and Brennan Malone didn’t shoot to the top of the club’s prospect rankings but are both ranked inside the Pirates’ top 10 farmhands by FanGraphs, Baseball America, MLB.com and The Athletic.

Some fans felt that the Pirates didn’t get enough in return, but the market for Marte was a bit quieter than anticipated. The Phillies never appeared to get seriously involved — perhaps due to sitting narrowly south of the luxury tax threshold. The Indians had interest but were clearly more interested in cutting payroll than adding MLB talent themselves. The Padres were tied to Marte but more focused on Mookie Betts. Ultimately, the Bucs got a pair of quality prospects that wouldn’t have been guaranteed had they held Marte in hopes of extracting a greater return this summer.

Immediately after trading Marte, Cherington made clear that he hoped to bring in a serviceable replacement (of course, at a lower cost than Marte’s $11.5MM salary). The market for center fielders was thin to begin the winter and largely picked over by that point, but Pittsburgh wound up adding a trio of center-field-capable options at minimal costs. Jarrod Dyson ($2MM), Guillermo Heredia ($1MM) and JT Riddle ($850K) were all signed to one-year, Major League deals. Heredia projects as the club’s fourth outfielder and can be controlled via arbitration through the 2022 season if the organization sees fit. Riddle should be a backup infielder/outfielder and is controllable through 2023.

Dyson is a straight one-year pickup — a blistering runner with high-end glovework and, frankly, a pretty tidy bargain for the Pirates at a $2MM price point. He’s a nice value addition, but it’s worth noting that in going with Dyson, the Bucs apparently deemed even Kevin Pillar’s $4.25MM price tag with the Red Sox to be too expensive. It’s not as if Pillar spurned the Pirates to sign with a surefire contender, so either the front office believes Dyson to be a better asset — a defensible take but not a decisive fact by any means — or ownership simply didn’t want to spend the extra dollars to bring in the younger Pillar.

Luke Maile is the only other player who inked a big league deal with the Bucs this winter, although he still has minor league options remaining and, as such, inked a split contract. He’s the presumptive backup to 30-year-old Jacob Stallings, who’ll be getting his first opportunity as a starting catcher in 2020. Light-hitting framing savant John Ryan Murphy was brought in on a minor league deal as a depth piece, but the catching corps in Pittsburgh is a collectively underwhelming unit, to put things mildly.

It’s a different story around the infield, for the most part. Josh Bell will look to shake off a second-half slump and build on a generally strong 2019 campaign, while Adam Frazier has settled in as a quality, underrated second baseman. Kevin Newman showed off plenty of upside in a strong rookie effort last year, and the Bucs have reportedly initiated talks on an extension with one of the game’s top third base prospects (and top overall prospects): Ke’Bryan Hayes. If Hayes agrees to a deal, he’d likely open the year in the Majors … whenever, exactly, Opening Day actually happens. In the outfield, sophomore Bryan Reynolds and longtime Bucco Gregory Polanco will flank the newly signed Dyson.

Turning to the pitching staff, the Pirates have had their fair share of misfortune recently. Jameson Taillon had Tommy John surgery last summer, and righty Chad Kuhl is still working back from his own Tommy John procedure at the end of the 2018 season. Lefty Steven Brault has been slowed by shoulder woes this spring. Closer Felipe Vazquez, of course, is out of the picture entirely after being arrested on a series of abhorrent statutory sexual assault charges.

The Pirates did little to bolster their waning pitching depth this winter, however, bringing Derek Holland, Robbie Erlin and Hector Noesi aboard on minor league deals but eschewing any big league additions. Holland appears the likely fifth starter behind Chris Archer, Joe Musgrove, Trevor Williams and Mitch Keller.

Perhaps even more glaringly, Pittsburgh opted not to add a single reliever to the big league staff — with the possible exception of claiming lefty Sam Howard from the Rockies. Keone Kela should close down games in 2020, but he’s the only reliever with any real track record in the Pirates’ relief corps. There’s enough flotsam on the 40-man roster that the Pirates could’ve added some veteran arms or at least speculated on the waiver wire. Instead, they’ll rely on the same group of relievers that ranked 23rd in the Majors in ERA, 22nd in FIP and 20th in xFIP as a collective bunch in 2019 — and that was with Vazquez dominating for the first several months.

Not including Vazquez’s salary — he’ll be on the restricted list — the Pirates are set to open the season with under $54MM in payroll on the books. It’s an astonishingly low number in today’s game — one so small that no one should be surprised to see yet another grievance brought forth against the organization by the MLBPA. The collective bargaining agreement has rules in place about the manner in which a team must allocate its revenue-sharing funds, and it’s easy to understand why the union has questions about the Pirates’ claims that their use of said resources is compliant.

Cherington declined to use the word “rebuild” this offseason, instead claiming that the Pirates are merely “building.” Semantics aside, the Pirates’ roster is extraordinarily porous, and the front office effectively did nothing to stop the ship from taking on water. Pittsburgh didn’t even select a player in December’s Rule 5 Draft. If the Pirates weren’t even going to feign an attempt at improving, it’s surprising that they didn’t aggressively shop the likes of Kela, Bell, Frazier, Musgrove and basically anyone else who’s controlled for three or fewer seasons.

2020 Season Outlook

If the manner in which owner Bob Nutting bumbled through the first month of the offseason — allowing a GM to conduct a hunt for a manager before firing that GM and starting over a month into the process — didn’t illustrate the organization’s lack of a plan, the end result of their winter should spell it out. This roster isn’t any better than the one that lost 93 games in 2019. It’s very arguably worse. And yet the Pirates only made one future-oriented trade, did next to nothing to add short-term free agents who could emerge as trade chips, sat out the Rule 5 Draft and engaged in virtually no activity on the waiver wire.

Players like Reynolds, Newman and Hayes at least give fans some exciting young talent to watch, but this is a weak roster that the club barely tried to improve. It’ll be an upset if the Pirates don’t finish in last place, and fans can expect to see some combination of Archer, Mugrove, Kela, Frazier and Bell circulating the rumor mill this summer.

Cherington deserves some benefit of the doubt, given a track record of quality player development in Boston and Toronto. Perhaps the plan was to use 2020 as a year of pure evaluation for what was already in house, but it sure seems like the Pirates passed on countless opportunities to pursue upside deals, further stock the farm or at least give the fans some reason to care. It’s going to be a long year in Pittsburgh.

How would you grade the Pirates’ offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)

Offseason In Review: Oakland Athletics

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The Athletics won 97 games and earned a wild-card berth for the second straight year in 2019. They weren’t all that active over the winter, but with the AL West rival Astros engulfed in turmoil, the talented A’s may be in position to take over the division this season.

Major League Signings

Options Exercised

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

For the second consecutive year, Oakland managed to weather a slew of injuries in its pitching staff and establish itself as one of the majors’ elite teams. The A’s received little to no contributions from Sean Manaea, A.J. Puk and Jesus Luzardo – three ultra-skilled southpaws who, if healthy, should be prominent parts of their rotation this year. Puk has been battling shoulder issues and didn’t seem likely to be ready for Opening Day as of earlier this week. However, with the coronavirus delaying the start of the season by at least two weeks, it’s possible Puk will be OK by Game 1. Should that be the case, he and the other two aforementioned lefties would probably be in line to join righties Frankie Montas and Mike Fiers in the A’s starting five. On paper, that’s a promising group – albeit one that lost three legit starters in Tanner Roark, Homer Bailey and Brett Anderson during free agency.

Oakland didn’t augment its starting staff during the offseason (maybe it didn’t need to), but it did spend on its bullpen. The club kept a couple of its 2019 relievers in lefty Jake Diekman and righty Yusmeiro Petit, who will cost a combined $13MM this season, and claimed southpaw T.J. McFarland from the Diamondbacks.

Diekman wasn’t especially productive after he joined the A’s in a late-July trade, walking 16 hitters and yielding 11 earned runs in 20 1/3 innings with the club. But the A’s are banking on the hard thrower’s high-strikeout, high-groundball ways paying dividends over a full campaign. He and McFarland, who struggled mightily to prevent runs in four of the past five seasons, are the top lefties in a bullpen that said goodbye to Ryan Buchter over the winter. McFarland’s like Diekman in that he induces plenty of grounders. Conversely, he’s not much for velocity or strikeouts. And McFarland has typically experienced difficulty versus right-handed hitters, which isn’t going to fly in a league that’s now imposing a three-batter minimum rule.

The acquisition of McFarland isn’t the only change the A’s bullpen underwent in recent months. The team cut ties with righty Blake Treinen, formerly a lights-out closer who trudged through a dreadful 2019. For the most part, the A’s bullpen was a strength then, but Treinen’s unexpected drop-off certainly didn’t help matters. Based on his numbers from last season, Treinen won’t be missed. Moreover, the Treinen-less A’s still look fairly set from the right side with the durable and effective Petit, closer Liam Hendriks (who was just about untouchable last season), Joakim Soria and J.B. Wendelken comprising their go-to late-game options, and they’ll hope Lou Trivino can return to his 2018 ways after falling flat as a sophomore.

Meanwhile, the A’s position player cast went largely unchanged in the past few months. Their most notable move was to trade second baseman Jurickson Profar to the Padres in a deal for Austin Allen, who will back up the touted Sean Murphy at catcher. The Athletics had high hopes for Profar when they acquired him from the division-rival Rangers entering 2019, but his lone year in an A’s uniform was a failure.

The A’s could have replaced Profar with any number of affordable, well-known options via the open market (Starlin Castro, Brian Dozier, Cesar Hernandez, Wilmer Flores and Brock Holt are some who come to mind). They even had interest in a reunion with old friend and current Met Jed Lowrie, though it’s probably fortunate for the A’s that didn’t happen, considering Lowrie’s lofty salary and ongoing injury troubles. In the end, Oakland came away with Tony Kemp in a minor trade with the Cubs. It remains to be seen, though, whether Kemp will even crack the roster. He doesn’t possess much of a track record, has no minor league options and, before MLB’s spring training shutdown, was competing with three younger second basemen in Jorge Mateo, Franklin Barreto and Rule 5 pickup Vimael Machin. There’s no sending any of those three to the minors, either (at least, not without risking losing them), and they likely have higher upside than Kemp. However, the A’s could platoon the lefty-hitting Kemp or Machin with one of the other two.

Second base aside, there weren’t many A’s positions ripe for upgrade over the winter. Their hitters did, after all, rank fifth in the majors in fWAR, fifth in wRC+ and eighth in runs last season. Most of that unit’s back, including their three best players in third baseman Matt Chapman, shortstop Marcus Semien and first baseman Matt Olson. There has been talk of extensions for all three over the past couple years, but nothing has materialized to this point. Barring a change in the coming months, it could be the last season in Oakland for Semien, a free agent-to-be who – if he comes close to replicating his jaw-dropping 7.6-fWAR effort from 2019 – will be one of the most coveted players on the open market next winter.

Fortunately for Oakland, it’s not in immediate danger of losing Chapman or Olson, standouts who still have another season of pre-arbitration eligibility. They and Semien are supported by some strong complements in outfielders Ramon Laureano and Mark Canha. Designated hitter Khris Davis also deserves mention; that is, if he can revisit his usual form after an injury-marred 2019. But one of the A’s three outfield spots does look somewhat iffy. While Stephen Piscotty was terrific two years ago, he fought multiple health problems and didn’t perform well last season. He’s now battling another injury – an intercostal strain – though perhaps he’ll have enough time to recover by Opening Day if the game’s coronavirus-caused moratorium lasts long enough. If not, the A’s may turn to the switch-hitting Robbie Grossman, who’s adept at getting on base but doesn’t offer that much else. Of course, if Piscotty’s problem is serious enough, there’s a case Oakland should look to the No. 1 free agent left – outfielder Yasiel Puig – though that seems improbable.

2020 Outlook

Clearly, it was not an exciting offseason for the low-budget Athletics, whose Opening Day payroll should check in south of the $100MM mark yet again. Despite the team’s lack of spending power, though, executive vice president Billy Beane and general manager David Forst have once again built a roster that looks as if it will contend. That appears all the more likely with the Astros – the back-to-back-to-back AL West champions – besieged by a sign-stealing scandal, a regime change, the loss of Gerrit Cole and an injury to Justin Verlander. Even with all of that adversity, the Astros still look talented enough to continue their reign in the division, but the A’s should at least nip at their heels and push for a third playoff berth in a row.

How would you grade the A’s offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)

Offseason In Review: Minnesota Twins

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The Twins set out in search of “impact” pitching but instead signed a position player to the second-largest contract in franchise history and added a host of mid-rotation arms.

Guaranteed Contracts

Trades and Claims

Options Decisions

Extensions

  • Miguel Sano, 1B/3B: Three years, $30MM (includes $2.75MM buyout of $14MM club option for 2023)

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Twins surprised onlookers in 2019 not only by winning the American League Central but by doing so in a decisive fashion thanks to a powerhouse lineup that shocked the baseball world with a Major League-record 307 home runs. But their rotation was a more middle-of-the-pack unit, and the vast majority of it — Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda, Martin Perez —  reached free agency at season’s end. Minnesota issued a $17.8MM qualifying offer to Odorizzi, and he made the somewhat surprising decision to accept. This winter’s free-agent market was vastly more active and player-friendly than the previous two, so perhaps he’d prefer a mulligan on that decision, but Odorizzi maintains that he has no regrets.

With Odorizzi on board alongside Jose Berrios, the Twins at least had a pair of quality arms on which to rely, but president of baseball ops Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine opened the winter by declaring their intent to acquire “impact” starting pitching. Minnesota entered the winter with a projected 2020 payroll of just $64MM and with only two players (Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco) guaranteed anything beyond the 2020 season. Their measured approach to free agency a year ago and their cost-efficient young core left them with plenty of immediate and long-term flexibility.

That said, adding “impact” pitching was still a rather lofty goal when considering the short supply of high-end talent available; Gerrit Cole was always projected to sign a record-setting contract — though few predicted his eventual $324MM price tag — and Stephen Strasburg wasn’t expected to be too far behind. (As it turns out, he briefly set a new record for starting pitcher contracts, signing days before Cole.)

The only real “impact” arms available beyond that duo were Zack Wheeler, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Madison Bumgarner — and the extent to which “impact” describes them is rather debatable. None of the bunch is a clear ace, be it for durability reasons, consistency of track record or some combination of the two. Ultimately, the Twins were spurned by both Wheeler — who reportedly had a strong East Coast preference — and Ryu. Their interest in Bumgarner wasn’t as high, and the longtime Giants star said after signing with the D-backs that Arizona was his top choice anyhow.

While the trade market normally presents an alternative avenue, there simply weren’t any top-of-the-rotation arms readily available this winter, with the possible exception of Corey Kluber. But Kluber is coming off an injury-ruined year, and it was never likely that the Indians would trade the former Cy Young winner to the reigning division champs.

Josh Donaldson

The Twins, then, were left with a choice: make short-term and/or smaller investments once again in hopes of spending the considerable financial resources at their disposal down the road … or pivot and sign the most talented player available to them. They opted for the latter, emerging as a dark-horse candidate for Josh Donaldson and eventually landing the former AL MVP on a four-year, $92MM deal — the second-largest contract in club history.

The “Bringer of (Purple) Rain” is already 34 years old, so there’s some clear age-related risk. But Donaldson also posted an outstanding .259/.379/.521 slash with 37 home runs, 33 doubles and, importantly, excellent third-base glovework in 2019. And by moving Miguel Sano (-7 Defensive Runs Saved, -5 Outs Above Average) across the diamond in favor of Donaldson (15 DRS, 8 OAA), the Twins should substantially help their pitching staff. The Donaldson deal might not look great by years three and four of the contract, but it’s a win-now move that bolsters their chances in 2020-21.

With Donaldson penciled into the heart of the order, the Twins didn’t have much else to do in terms of their starting lineup. Max Kepler will again man right field, and the Twins will hope that healthier iterations of Byron Buxton and Eddie Rosario will comprise a quality outfield trio on both sides of the ball. Jorge Polanco should again be the primary shortstop, while sophomore Luis Arraez (.334/.399/.439 in 366 plate appearances) will get the nod at second base. Nelson Cruz will be back for a second season at designated hitter. Mitch Garver is lined up for regular catching duties after a 2019 breakout. Utilitymen Marwin Gonzalez and Ehire Adrianza can play just about anywhere in the event of an injury.

Even if their big move was adding a third baseman, the Twins still addressed the pitching staff in multiple smaller ways. Pineda will return on an affordable two-year deal, although he’ll miss the first 39 games of the year under a league-reduced 60-game suspension after he tested positive for a banned diuretic.

Veterans Homer Bailey and Rich Hill both joined the mix on New Year’s Eve, signing low-cost one-year pacts. Bailey enjoyed his first full, healthy season since 2013 last year and flashed some positive secondary metrics that were more appealing than his base 4.57 ERA. Hill was terrific when healthy in ’19 but won’t pitch until at least June after undergoing primary repair surgery.

Most expected the Twins to be done with that set of additions, but they emerged as the third team in trade talks with the Dodgers and Red Sox as those clubs tried to sort out a Mookie Betts/David Price blockbuster. Minnesota originally got in on the deal by agreeing to send prized prospect Brusdar Graterol to Boston in exchange for the Dodgers’ Kenta Maeda. The Red Sox balked after viewing Graterol’s medical records, claiming surprise that he profiled more as a reliever. When that iteration of the deal was scrapped, the Dodgers worked out a separate trade to ship Maeda to Minneapolis, taking Graterol and other pieces themselves back in return. Weeks later, it emerged that Maeda had asked out of L.A. — seemingly frustrated by his lack of a consistent rotation spot, which the Twins can surely provide.

A Twins club that entered the winter with one clear big league starter on the roster (Berrios) will enter 2020 with Berrios, Odorizzi, Maeda, Bailey, Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer, Lewis Thorpe and perhaps non-roster invitee Jhoulys Chacin all as options in the starting mix. Pineda (mid-May) and Hill (June or July) aren’t expected to be far behind. It may not be an imposing group of names, but it’s a suddenly deep reservoir from which to draw. The group doesn’t look markedly better or markedly worse than the collection of arms the Twins rode to a division title in 2019, but it still seems like they’ll be in the mix for the ever-elusive “impact” starter this summer as they look to end a comically lengthy postseason slump.

Elsewhere on the roster, the Twins added some steady veterans to fill complementary roles. Alex Avila will join his third AL Central club as the backup to Garver. Avila’s sky-high strikeout rates and low batting averages are a turnoff for many, but he’s an on-base machine (career 14.4 percent walk rate) who hits for some power, frames pitches well and throws well.

Minnesota’s bullpen emerged as a quietly deep unit down the stretch in 2019, buoyed by big performances from closer Taylor Rogers, setup men Tyler Duffey and Trevor May, and rookie starter-turned-reliever Zack Littell. The Twins added to that mix by re-signing Sergio Romo to a one-year deal with an option and by inking well-traveled veteran Tyler Clippard to a one-year pact. Romo shined in a high-leverage role with the Twins after being acquired from the Marlins last summer. Clippard could be an important piece due to his ability to retire left-handed hitters (.182/.256/.321 over the past three seasons combined); the new three-batter minimum makes effectiveness against both righties and lefties more critical, and this winter’s market was noticeably light on quality left-handed relievers.

The other notable piece of offseason business for the Twins was Sano’s new contract. It’s extraordinarily rare to see a player with four-plus years of big league service take a deal that delays his path to free agency in exchange for just one additional guaranteed year — and even rarer for that deal to include a club option. Over the past decade, former Braves third baseman Chris Johnson is the only position player to sign a three-year extension with a club option at this stage of his career.

Sano has dealt with myriad injuries in his career to this point and has been inconsistent when healthy. That surely impacted his decision to take the deal and was factored in by the organization in its offer. The end result is that in 2022 — the first of Sano’s would-be free-agent years — the Twins will control him, Polanco and Kepler (last winter’s extension recipients) for a combined $21.5MM. If Sano’s $14MM option is exercised in 2023, that trio will be owed $30MM. Combine that with Maeda’s annual $3.125MM base salary (also through 2023), and the Twins have done a nice job in establishing some cost certainty over the long run.

Other extensions could yet follow for Minnesota. The Twins tried to work out a long-term deal with Berrios a year ago and could do so again between now and Opening Day. Cruz is a free agent at season’s end, but the 39-year-old has made clear he plans to continue playing. Minnesota has talked to his agents already. Byron Buxton seems a plausible candidate as well. In the bullpen, a preemptive run at signing May before he reaches free agency at season’s end or a long-term deal with Rogers could be sensible pursuits. Last year’s breakout aside, there’s probably less urgency with the late-blooming Garver, who is already 29 years old and controlled through his age-33 season.

2020 Outlook

With a serviceable rotation, a quietly strong bullpen and what could be MLB’s most potent lineup, the Twins enter the 2020 season as the favorites in the AL Central. They’ll try to stave off an Indians club that cut spending and a White Sox organization that went the other direction, significantly ramping up payroll.  But last year’s Minnesota roster bested Cleveland by eight games and Chicago by 28.5 games. The Indians look like a worse team now than they did in 2019, and while the ChiSox are unequivocally improved, wiping out that kind of deficit would be a stunning accomplishment.

Rotation help could very well be on the summer wishlist again, depending on the health and productivity of their incumbent options. But after toiling away in futility for much of their time since the opening of Target Field in 2010, the Twins finally look like a team poised for some sustainable success.

How would you grade the Twins’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Miami Marlins

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While the Marlins are far from pushing for contention, they did spend some money to add proven veteran talent to their roster.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

In something of a role reversal, the Marlins took an undesirable contract off a rebuilding team’s hands when they landed Jonathan Villar in what was essentially a salary dump for the Orioles.  Villar ended up avoiding arbitration by agreeing with Miami on an $8.2MM salary for the 2020 season — lower than both the $10.4MM MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s projection model forecast for Villar, and also the roughly $9MM or so that Swartz personally predicted in his closer examination of Villar’s rather unique case.

Even at $8.2MM, Villar was deemed too expensive by a Baltimore team that is stripping its roster down in the early stages of a lengthy rebuild, leaving the Marlins in position to add a quality second baseman coming off a 4.0 fWAR season.  Or, I should say, a potentially former second baseman who will be seeing some time in center field, as the Marlins will try Villar on the outfield grass to free up a position for prospect Isan Diaz.  It could end up being a short-lived audition depending on Villar’s glovework or if Diaz (who had only a .566 OPS over 201 MLB plate appearances in 2019) continues to struggle against Major League pitching.  However, considering that former top prospect Lewis Brinson has also yet to break out at the big league level, there’s no harm for Miami in seeing if Villar can help their center field situation.  If so, it could only enhance his trade value at the deadline, as Villar is only under contract through the end of the season.

The Fish added another veteran regular in Corey Dickerson, who was signed to a $17.5MM deal that covers the 2020-21 seasons.  The outfield was a prime area of need for Miami this winter, as such names as Yasiel Puig, Kole Calhoun, Avisail Garcia, and — somewhat surprisingly — even Nick Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna were considered.  The fact that the Marlins at least checked in on the latter two names could indicate that the team had at least some willingness to really expand their payroll, or it could be that they were simply doing due diligence to see if either Castellanos or Ozuna were willing to lower their asking price.  (As it happened, Ozuna did end up signing a one-year deal, but with the reigning NL East champion Braves.)

In the end, it will be Dickerson who mans left field at Marlins Park, as the 30-year-old looks to rebound from an injury-plagued 2019 campaign.  Dickerson was still very productive when healthy, batting .304/.341/.565 over 279 PA with the Pirates and Phillies, and anything close to those numbers would greatly boost a Marlins lineup that was arguably the worst in baseball last season.

In other offensive upgrades, the Marlins claimed Jesus Aguilar in the hopes that he can regain his 35-homer stroke from the 2018 season, and also signed Matt Joyce to share playing time in right field.  Garrett Cooper will see plenty of at-bats as either a first baseman or right fielder, with Aguilar or Joyce (or utilityman Jon Berti, or younger outfield options like Magneuris Sierra or Harold Ramirez) in the mix to handle the other position.

With Jorge Alfaro perhaps questionable for Opening Day due to an oblique injury, Miami’s signing of Francisco Cervelli looks like an even more important move.  Cervelli could end up getting a bit more time behind the plate than expected if Alfaro is on the injured list, though when Alfaro is back, Cervelli will slide into a backup role and offer a bit more seasoned glovework than the somewhat defensively erratic Alfaro.

Cervelli isn’t far removed from being one of the game’s better-hitting catchers, which fits the model of Miami’s approach to their position player acquisitions.  All of these players were solid-to-very good just last year (Joyce), as recently as 2018 (Aguilar, Cervelli, minor league signing Matt Kemp) or in both seasons (Dickerson, Villar).  Should the Marlins get some in-form production from the majority of these new faces and get continued improvement from the likes of Cooper, Alfaro, and Brian Anderson, Miami’s offense could take some pitchers by surprise.

The revamped bullpen also offers some upside, as Brandon Kintzler was signed to be the likely first choice at closer after the veteran righty’s solid 2019 season with the Cubs.  Kintzler is a few years removed from his last closing experience at the back of the Twins’ bullpen, but he’ll handle the ninth behind a core group that includes Ryne Stanek, minor league signing and former All-Star closer Brad Boxberger, and Yimi Garcia, inked to a big league deal after the Dodgers non-tendered him.  Garcia is perhaps the most intriguing of the newcomers, as his peripheral numbers hint at some real talent, were it not for the right-hander’s alarming propensity for allowing home runs.  Pitching at Marlins Park could help that issue to some extent, and if Garcia can more fully limit the damage, he could be something of a steal.

While this winter’s expenditures count as something of a spending spree by Marlins standards, they aren’t doling out any new money.  Villar’s $8.2MM and Miami’s $25.35MM in offseason free agents contracts just about match up to the 2019 salaries of several veterans who are no longer on the books (Martin Prado, Starlin Castro, Curtis Granderson, Neil Walker).  As per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Marlins’ projected $68.925MM Opening Day payroll is actually lower than their $71.9MM figure from last season’s opener.

In short, the Marlins might not have done enough this winter to escape the ire of the players’ union.  The MLB Players Association has filed an amended grievance against the Marlins (as well as the Pirates and the Rays) for their use of revenue-sharing funds in both the 2018-19 and 2017-18 offseasons.  Given that none of those clubs broke the bank over the last few months, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the 2019-20 offseason also added to this grievance.

It was no surprise that Miami didn’t spend big this winter, as the organization has been very clear about its intentions to build around young talent and resist the quick-fix splurges that often marked the Jeffrey Loria era.  It still might be a couple of years before the Marlins feel they have enough of a core group in place to ramp up spending as the White Sox and Reds did this offseason.

It’s a sign of progress, however, that the scorched-earth phase of the rebuild seems to be over.  Villar, Kintzler, or other veterans on short-term deals could well end up being moved at the trade deadline, but it doesn’t seem like younger talent is on the move.  Despite interest from multiple teams, the Marlins held onto controllable rotation arms like Caleb Smith, Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, and Jose Urena.  Miami seems ready to find out if the young players it already has in the fold could end up being part of that next Marlins winner, and it will be intriguing to see which of the pitchers and position players take that next step in 2020.

2020 Season Outlook

Will the Marlins lose 105 games again?  The NL East (and pretty much the entire National League) still looks quite competitive, but it seems on paper as if the Fish have done enough to get back down to double digits in the loss column.  Fangraphs projects “only” 95.5 losses for Miami in 2020, which counts as some small victory, but it would still be a big surprise if Miami escaped another last-place finish.

How would you grade the Marlins’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs declined to pull the trigger on a significant trade and chose to spend next to nothing in free agency.

Major League Signings

Options Exercised

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

If you’re looking for a microcosm of the Cubs’ offseason, consider veteran reliever Alex Claudio.  Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic wrote back in December that, “Before Claudio signed with the Brewers for $1.75 million, the Cubs had made it clear they were interested. But they needed to clear money first, so he signed with Milwaukee.”  The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote just days earlier, “[Cubs] officials are telling representatives of even low-budget free agents that they need to clear money before engaging in serious negotiations.”

It was a winter marked by the Cubs’ small-market division rivals outbidding them on low- to mid-tier free agents.  Aside from Claudio, the Cubs reportedly had discussions with starting pitcher Josh Lindblom, who ultimately signed with the Brewers for three years and $9.125MM.  The luxury tax hit for the Cubs on Lindblom would have been $3.04MM.  Instead, the Cubs are slotting in Tyler Chatwood as their fifth starter, a signing that itself may never have happened had the Cubs not been outbid by the Cardinals for expat Miles Mikolas in December 2017.  The backup plan behind Chatwood appears to be Jharel Cotton, who last pitched in the Majors two and a half years ago.  The Brewers wound up committing $52.125MM across nine free agents including infielder of interest Eric Sogard ($4.5MM) as well as Swiss army knife Brock Holt ($3.25MM).  So the Cubs’ plan at second base will be Nico Hoerner with backup from minor league signing Jason Kipnis and veteran Daniel Descalso.

The Cubs entered the offseason with a clear need in center field, reportedly meeting with Shogo Akiyama at the Winter Meetings.  Akiyama instead signed with the Reds for three years and $21MM.  The Diamondbacks, another Akiyama suitor, moved on to Starling Marte.  The Cubs moved on to Steven Souza Jr., a $1MM right field short-side platoon partner for Jason Heyward. Souza missed all of 2019 due to “an ACL tear, LCL tear, partial PCL tear, and posterior lateral capsule tear in his left knee.”  It’s not that he’s a bad pickup — he’s had success in the past and now feels 100% after a grueling rehab process — but that the signing was the biggest move of the Cubs’ offseason is rather eye-opening.  The Cubs will hope that Ian Happ and Albert Almora Jr. can provide more production than they received at the position in 2019.  Aside from Akiyama, the Cubs will also face new Red Nick Castellanos 19 times this year.  The Cubs had interest in keeping Castellanos after he mashed for them in the season’s final two months, but they were never going to pony up $64MM.

The bullpen holdovers have question marks from top to bottom, and that starts with Craig Kimbrel.  If we’re going to discuss the team’s lack of spending, it’s worth noting that they flexed some financial muscle when they signed Kimbrel to a three-year, $43MM deal shortly after last June’s draft.  Bolstering the ’pen in 2020 and 2021 was definitely a big part of that signing — but it’s hard to know whether that’ll be the outcome after Kimbrel posted a 6.53 ERA in 20 2/3 innings and spent time on the IL.

The Cubs added pitchers like Jeffress, Tepera, Winkler, Sadler, Megill, and Morrow to the ’pen, giving them more potential bargains but no additional certainty.  The team would probably feel better had it come away with one of the winter’s top free agent relievers, but a look at the previous winter’s crop — and the early returns of their own Kimbrel addition — shows the massive risk inherent in spending big bucks in the bullpen.  Doubling down after getting burned in year one of the Kimbrel deal would’ve been risky.  The team’s plan of making minor commitments and hoping their Pitch Lab can unearth a few gems actually makes sense.

Back in early December, I was sure the Cubs would at least be willing to spend up to what the collective bargaining agreement calls the “First Surcharge Threshold,” which is $228MM in 2020.  That would have meant paying a 30% tax on money spent between $208-228MM.  Maybe the team hasn’t yet realized a revenue bump from their new Marquee Sports Network, but given the team’s window of control over key players, spending now and resetting later seemed like the logical choice.  Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein stated on October 30th, “As an organization, we’re not talking about payroll or luxury tax at all.  I feel like every time we’ve been at all specific, or even allowed people to make inferences from things we’ve said, it just puts us in a hole strategically.”  

Cubs ownership apparently didn’t get the memo, as Tom Ricketts commented extensively on the “dead-weight loss” of paying the competitive balance tax.  The Cubs paid $7.6MM toward the luxury tax for 2019.  Ricketts’ comments have generally served to muddy the waters about this tax, with disingenuous references to losing draft picks.  The fact is that a team only gets its top draft pick moved back ten places if it reaches the “Second Surcharge Threshold,” which is $248MM for 2020 — a level to which the Cubs are not remotely close.  Tom and his sister Laura also referenced how the penalties increase if a team exceeds the Base Tax Threshold repeatedly.  That’s true, and I could see how the Cubs might not want to be a third-time CBT payor in 2021.  With Jon Lester, Jose Quintana, and Tyler Chatwood coming off the books in ’21, that may indeed be a time to reset and get below $210MM.  But the Cubs’ inaction this winter suggests an extreme reluctance to go past this year’s $208MM base threshold, even though capping payroll at $228MM for ’20 would result in a maximum tax bill of $6MM — lower than what they paid for 2019.

On September 30th, Epstein said, “Next year is a priority.  We have to balance it with the future. And probably that’s more important now than it was even a year ago, because we’re now just two years away from a lot of our best players reaching the end of their period of control with the Cubs.”  In other words, the team’s window runs through 2021, after which Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, and Kyle Schwarber can become free agents.  While Epstein said recently “you can’t be blind to the realities of the following 18 months,” Ricketts feels that “we can stop talking about windows.”  Ricketts’ stated goal of “building a division-winning team every year” seems at odds with the notion of spending $3.5MM on free agents because you don’t like paying a 30% tax.

Though we knew payroll was a concern, the Cubs surprised us by topping out at Souza’s $1MM in free agency.  That surprise was compounded by the team’s failure to make a significant trade.  As of December, a major trade or two seemed inevitable.  ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote, “The Chicago Cubs have been, according to various executives, ’aggressive,’ ’manic,’ ’motivated’ and ’obvious’ in their desire to trade someone. Or someones. The Cubs are going to make a move. They’re just not sure what yet.”

It seems the Cubs had extensive trade talks involving Bryant, with rumored connections to the Braves and Padres, among others.  But with Bryant’s grievance decision dragging until January 29th and reported “sky-high asking prices,” the Cubs did not find a deal to their liking.  Without knowing what was offered for Bryant, Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber, and others, it’s impossible to say whether Epstein made the right call.  Eventually, some of these players will be traded, whether at this year’s July trade deadline or in the 2020-21 offseason.  If there’s an obvious extension candidate among the bunch, it’s probably Baez, who acknowledged some “up and down” extension talks with the team this winter.

[RELATED: Grading Theo Epstein’s Cubs Free Agent Signings]

In the end, the Cubs’ biggest offseason acquisition turned out to be manager David Ross.  If the players’ complacency under Joe Maddon wasn’t clear before, consider this damning quote from Baez last month: “A lot of players were doing the same as me.  They were getting loose during the game. You can lose the game in the first inning. Sometimes when you’re not ready and the other team scored by something simple, I feel like it was cause of that. It was cause we weren’t ready.”

2020 Season Outlook

During the Winter Meetings, when a shakeup still seemed likely, Epstein commented, “Status quo is not a bad option, but we’re obviously out there looking to make changes and change the dynamic and improve.”  To that end, the Cubs failed.  Epstein’s assessment at the time on what the status quo would mean: “I’d feel like we’d have one of the most talented teams in the league but that we’d have some areas of exposure where we’d need a lot of things to go right.” 

That sums up the state of the 2020 Cubs perfectly — question marks persist at second base, center field, right field, fifth starter, and across the bullpen, but it’s still a talented team that should contend.  FanGraphs gives the Cubs an 85-win projection and 51.6% chance at the playoffs, much like they did last April after a winter of inaction.  If the Reds, Brewers, and Cardinals are behind the Cubs, it isn’t by much, and the Cubs did nothing in the offseason to widen the gap.

How would you grade the team’s offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)

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