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2019-20 Offseason in Review

Offseason In Review: Texas Rangers

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The Rangers face major competition in the AL West. Have they done enough to field a competitive roster in 2020?

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Rangers entered the winter seeking to end a three-season malaise. Having scored another new ballpark after just 26 seasons in their old one, the Texas organization was looking to ramp up the level of play at an opportune moment for business.

It’s tough to look at the unit compiled by longtime baseball ops chief Jon Daniels and see a division winner. The Astros are far the better team on paper; the Athletics and Angels look significantly stronger as well. But putting together a certain contender was never really a plausible goal, barring a wild spending spree. The Rangers’ hope was to ensure a competitive product and to get the arrow pointed back north, all while setting the stage for yet more strides in 2021 and beyond.

The Rangers’ preferred outcome was to land a blue-chip free agent in Texas native Anthony Rendon. But the price tag flew through the roof in the course of wild, Scott Boras-led Winter Meetings bidding. Trade possibilities — Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant — were at least explored, but nothing came to fruition. The Rangers weren’t as excited to chase the older Josh Donaldson as many expected; ultimately, the club wasn’t involved much at all in his bidding.

Plan B, we now know, was to add a bunch of starting pitching and a much more affordable veteran at the hot corner. Todd Frazier is no longer an All-Star-level performer, but the 34-year-old was something like a 2 WAR performer last year in semi-regular duty. The Rangers can deploy him at either corner infield spot and hope for much the same — solid glovework and slightly above-average hitting. Frazier looks like a pretty strong value for just five million bucks. That’s particularly true after looking at the big money secured by Mike Moustakas. Frazier’s salary is close to what the club would’ve spent on Nomar Mazara had they not shipped him along to the White Sox.

So how about that rotation? The Rangers have had awful luck with homegrown starters in recent years. But they’ve had much more success with a certain sort of free agent signing. The standard thinking goes that you don’t want to give any more guaranteed years than necessary to get a free agent pitcher that comes with questions regarding health and/or consistency. The Rangers have flipped that on its head, using longer but relatively affordable deals to lure a series of veterans. Mike Minor and Lance Lynn have amply rewarded the club for its faith and helped to remind that there can be upside to the team in expanding a contract’s length.

Sure enough, the Texas org did it again, inking righty Kyle Gibson to a three-year deal just like those awarded to Minor and Lynn. And much the same reasoning went into the surprising two-year deal the Rangers gave Jordan Lyles. If Gibson can return to peak form after battling stomach issues last year, and Lyles can carry forward some of the spark he showed in the second half of 2019, the Rangers could have another set of pretty nice contracts on their hands. The risks here are equally obvious, and the Rangers still need to figure out a way to raise their own starters, but even if one or both turn out to be duds the cost won’t be exorbitant.

It seemed for a moment as if this might be the extent of the pitching adds. But the Rangers doubled down on the veterans with a rather significant swap that has flown under the radar to some degree. The club swung a deal for Corey Kluber, who was one of the game’s preeminent hurlers for a five-year stretch before a comebacker fractured his forearm last year. While it cost fireballing young reliever Emmanuel Clase, which could sting in its own right, the swap is loaded with upside for Texas. Kluber is only slated to earn $17.5MM for 2020 and can be kept for a second season at $18MM (or dropped with a $1MM buyout if things don’t work out).

Put it all together, and the rotation actually looks to be quite the high-risk/high-reward outfit. It’s unusual to see such a collection of accomplished veterans all earning sizeable but hardly monumental salaries. The Rangers will have to hope the five-man unit stays healthy, because the top depth options — Kolby Allard, Ariel Jurado, Joe Palumbo — are far from sure things.

It’s arguably a hit-or-miss bullpen as well, but with a different makeup. As usual, the Rangers found someone to bring back from Japan. This time, it’s lefty Joely Rodriguez, who’ll pair with youngster Brett Martin to form what could be a nice 1-2 southpaw punch … but which could also fall flat. Top late-inning arms Jose Leclerc and Rafael Montero (yes, the former Mets prospect) had dominant stretches last year but have been anything but consistent. Youngster Demarcus Evans brings some upside of his own and there are a number of experienced hurlers on the 40-man (Jesse Chavez, Nick Goody, Luke Farrell) or in camp (Cody Allen, Derek Law, Juan Nicasio, Luis Garcia, Edinson Volquez, Brian Flynn). But there are plenty of questions in the relief unit.

To get the most out of the staff and to bring some thump from behind the dish, the Rangers righted a previous wrong by bringing back catcher Robinson Chirinos. He’s a nice get on a one-year commitment. While he’s closing in on his 36th birthday, Chirinos has been a steadily above-average hitter and was entrusted with the bulk of the work behind the plate last year for the powerhouse Astros.

2020 Season Outlook

It’s hard to escape the cross-state rivals in Houston when it comes to assessing the Rangers’ offseason work. There’s just so much talent on that roster. The position-player unit in Arlington isn’t nearly as imposing. The Rangers can hope that Joey Gallo builds upon his big 2019 showing. Perhaps Willie Calhoun will ensconce himself as a quality big leaguer. Maybe the Elvis Andrus–Rougned Odor middle-infield pairing will finally play to the level the team hoped when it extended both players. It’s possible Danny Santana will not stop hitting and/or that Nick Solak will fully establish himself in the majors. But … for all of those things to happen? It’d be a big surprise. This lineup would look a lot more fierce with another star or two plugged in.

All things considered, the Rangers look to have compiled a fairly middle-of-the-road unit for the 2020 season. There are scenarios where the roster plays up — particularly in a short-season format in which depth questions aren’t as likely to be presented.

How would you grade the Rangers’ offseason? (Poll link for app users.)

Offseason In Review: Milwaukee Brewers

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The Brewers’ offseason featured a large number of small-scale additions — a hallmark of the current front office regime — and the richest contract in club history for the face of the franchise.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Avisail Garcia, OF: Two years, $20MM
  • Josh Lindblom, RHP: Three years, $9.125MM
  • Justin Smoak, 1B: One year, $5MM (includes $1MM buyout of $5.5MM club option)
  • Brett Anderson, LHP: One year, $5MM
  • Eric Sogard, 2B/SS: One year, $4.5MM
  • Brock Holt, INF/OF: One year, $3.25MM (includes $250K buyout of $5MM club option)
  • Jedd Gyorko, 2B/3B/SS: One year, $2MM (includes $1MM buyout of $4.5MM club option)
  • Alex Claudio, LHP: One year, $1.75MM
  • David Phelps, RHP: One year, $1.5MM (includes $250K buyout of $4.5MM club option)
  • Ryon Healy, 1B/3B: One year, $1MM (split contract; $250K salary in minors)
  • Total spend: $53.125MM

Trades and Claims

Option Decisions

  • Declined $7.5MM club option on 1B/OF Eric Thames (Brewers paid $1MM buyout)
  • 2B/3B Mike Moustakas declined his half of $11MM mutual option (Brewers paid $3MM buyout)
  • C Yasmani Grandal declined his half of $16MM mutual option (Brewers paid $2.25MM buyout)

Extensions

  • Christian Yelich, OF: Seven years, $188.5MM (in addition to preexisting two years, $26.5MM)
  • Freddy Peralta, RHP: Five years, $15.5MM (contains two club options)

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The 2019 Brewers reached the postseason for a second straight year, although unlike their division-winning 2018 season, last year’s group limped to the postseason and narrowly secured a Wild Card victory. Christian Yelich’s early-September knee fracture was a major blow to a club that had already lost bullpen powerhouse Corey Knebel to Tommy John surgery and watched as shoulder and elbow troubles again wiped out the season of one of its most talented pitchers (Jimmy Nelson). Milwaukee still appeared poised to advance to the NLDS before a heartbreaking eighth-inning collapse saw the eventual World Series champion Nationals erase a three-run deficit against the likes of uber-reliever Josh Hader.

That bitter pill became even harder to swallow as Brewers fans watched Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas decline their halves of their respective mutual options and sign elsewhere in free agency — Moustakas with a division rival over in Cincinnati. Those departures combined with several other Milwaukee decisions — the trade of Chase Anderson to the Blue Jays, the buyout of Eric Thames’ option and the decision to non-tender Nelson, Travis Shaw and Hernan Perez — to leave many fans with the impression that the team was scaling back and cutting payroll.

In some ways, those concerns proved to be true. The Brewers’ payroll projects to drop by more than $18MM from its 2019 levels. Then again, Milwaukee signed more Major League free agents than any other club this winter, diversifying their risk portfolio by making small-scale investments in a slew of veteran assets. That’s been a common approach under president of baseball operations David Stearns — the Lorenzo Cain signing being a notable exception — and it’s one that has worked well to this point.

Oh… and the Brewers also doled out a franchise-record $188.5MM extension for the aforementioned Yelich. The contract will ostensibly keep Yelich in Milwaukee for the remainder of his career, giving the Brewers an MVP-caliber threat in the heart of their order for the foreseeable future. Yelich isn’t likely to remain that productive at the tail end of the deal, considering it runs through his age-36-campaign, but the contract looks to be a considerable win for the team. At a time when players like Mike Trout, Nolan Arenado and Anthony Rendon are all commanding over $30MM annually, Yelich’s $26.9MM annual value looks like a relative bargain. Of course, that comment can’t be made without underscoring that Yelich was three years from reaching the open market — two guaranteed campaigns and a third-year club option — and it also seems he had a clear desire to stay in Milwaukee.

[MLBTR On YouTube: The Yelich Extension]

So, how did the Brewers do in terms of addressing the many holes on their roster entering the winter? Opinions vary. The Brewers parted with relatively little in terms of long-term value in order to acquire three years of control over Narvaez — one of the game’s better-hitting catchers. The draft pick they surrendered is a lottery ticket that could certainly sting, but Narvaez and the .277/.358/.448 slash he’s compiled over the past two seasons will go a long way toward replacing the offense lost with Grandal’s departure. Defensively, Narvaez is a considerable downgrade, but few catchers in the game can match Narvaez’s value with the bat.

The Brewers’ biggest free-agent signing didn’t even come at a position of dire “need.” With Cain, Yelich, Ryan Braun and Ben Gamel on the roster, the outfield wasn’t exactly lacking. But Milwaukee moved Trent Grisham (and solid starter Zach Davies) in an effort to find a long-term answer at shortstop, and Avisail Garcia effectively replaces him on the roster. Garcia will likely see the bulk of playing time in right field, and the Brewers clearly believe he’s closer to the 2017 and 2019 versions of himself than the 2018 iteration that struggled across the board. He is deceptively fast and makes plenty of hard contact, but he’s been an inconsistent all-around performer.

Speaking of that Grisham/Davies trade, the Brewers managed to parlay a big year in the minors from Grisham into the acquisition of a prospect who one year ago was considered to be one of baseball’s premier minor league infielders. Luis Urias hasn’t hit in the big leagues yet, and the manner in which the Padres continued to acquire veteran options to play ahead of him perhaps suggests that they were never as high on him as prospect rankings seemed to be. Urias is still only 22 and has crushed Triple-A pitching (.305/.403/.511 in 867 plate appearances). Losing Grisham could potentially sting, but the Brewers felt more confident in their ability to capably replace an outfielder via free agency than to find a much-needed middle infielder. On the pitching side of that trade, the Brewers came away with the more controllable arm — but one that has yet to find the success Davies has enjoyed in the Majors.

Elsewhere in the infield — things are a bit of a hodgepodge. Not only did Milwaukee acquire Urias, they signed veterans Justin Smoak, Eric Sogard, Jedd Gyorko, Brock Holt and Ryon Healy. The additions put pressure on incumbent shortstop Orlando Arcia to finally tap into the potential that made him an elite prospect several years ago. That collection of veterans will surround second baseman Keston Hiura and, occasionally, Braun (when he plays first base). Smoak adds some thump and quality glovework at first base. Gyorko, Sogard and Holt can play all over, adding the type of versatility that the Brewers have emphasized in recent seasons. Sogard and Holt, in particular, offer plus defense at multiple positions.

The pitching staff lost a glut of arms — Davies, Chase Anderson, Drew Pomeranz, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Lyles and Junior Guerra — from a team that graded in the middle of the pack across the board. Milwaukee starters and relievers both ranked between 13th and 18th in terms of ERA and FIP. Clearly, some help was needed, but while many fans pined for a major splash, the Stearns regime has never demonstrated a willingness to sign a pitcher to a lucrative, long-term deal. The two-year, $15MM contract inked by Jhoulys Chacin two winters ago is the most expensive contract given to a pitcher by this iteration of the front office, and the three-year, $9.125MM deal given to wildcard Josh Lindblom this winter is the longest contract to which Stearns has ever signed a free-agent starting pitcher.

The Lindblom deal was the first and most interesting of several smaller-scale additions to the Milwaukee staff. The 32-year-old Lindblom was a second-round pick of the Dodgers back in 2005 but never solidified himself in the big leagues. Stints with Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Texas, Oakland and Pittsburgh didn’t pan out, and Lindblom went to South Korea on multiple occasions to pitch in the KBO.

As I detailed at greater length early in the offseason, Lindblom dove headfirst into a more analytical approach to pitching in his most recent KBO tenure and overhauled his pitch repertoire, adopting a splitter that proved to be a knockout offering. He won consecutive Choi Dong-won Awards — South Korea’s Cy Young equivalent — in 2018-19 and was named the KBO MVP this past season. Lindblom isn’t overpowering in terms of velocity and will turn 33 this June, but he’s posted highly appealing strikeout rates, control, spin rates and exit velocities in Korea.

Veteran ground-ball savant Brett Anderson represents the only other rotation addition for the Brewers, who’ll rely on a combination of Brandon Woodruff, Anderson, Adrian Houser, Lindblom, Eric Lauer, Freddy Peralta and Corbin Burnes to start games early on. As explored early in camp, it’s a group that’s light on name recognition — Anderson excluded — but one with a good bit of upside. The Brewers will also surely leverage some openers and generally unorthodox deployments of their pitchers. Few teams play matchups and shuffle the deck with their pitching staff as much as Milwaukee. It’s a strategy that regularly draws criticism from onlookers — but one that has produced generally favorable results in recent years.

In the ’pen, the Brewers brought back Alex Claudio on a low-cost one-year deal and inked righty David Phelps to an even more affordable pact that comes with a 2020 option. The 28-year-old Claudio has been clobbered by right-handed hitters in his career, making his return a bit curious given the impending three-batter minimum. He’ll surely still be deployed against lefties as often as possible, but an increase in disadvantageous matchups against righties feels almost inevitable. Phelps, meanwhile, will hope to bounce back to his pre-Tommy John form, when he looked to be emerging as a high-end setup piece between Seattle and Miami (142 1/3 innings, 2.72 ERA, 11.1 K/9, 4.0 BB/9).

Corey Knebel’s return could be the biggest upgrade for the Brewers’ bullpen, though. The 28-year-old was on par with Josh Hader in terms of bullpen dominance in 2017, when he posted a 1.76 ERA in 76 2/3 innings with just under 15 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2019 season, but pairing a healthy Knebel with Hader would create a dominant one-two punch at the back of games. Some combination of Phelps, Claudio, Brent Suter, whichever of Peralta or Burnes isn’t starting games and perhaps the flamethrowing Ray Black could create a quality all-around unit.

Speaking of Peralta, his own extension is certainly worth highlighting. The young righty’s five-year, $15.5MM deal carries minimal downside for the club and comes with enormous potential for surplus value, particularly when considering a pair of club options that would total an eminently reasonable $14MM. It’s the sort of deal that makes agents cringe — Peralta himself even acknowledged that his own representatives advised against the deal — but it’s also hard to see how a 23-year-old who is still more potential than production would find it impossible to say no to that type of life-changing payday. Whether he’s in the ’pen or rotation, Peralta should be able to easily justify the investment with even moderate productivity. For a typically low- to medium-payroll club that just went beyond its traditional comfort zone to extend the face of the franchise, the potential cost efficiency such a contract creates is vital.

2020 Season Outlook

Questions about the Brewers’ pitching staff abound, but that’s nothing new for Stearns, manager Craig Counsell and the rest of the organization’s top decision-makers. Woodruff has demonstrated top-of-the-rotation potential, and Anderson has generally been a quality rotation stabilizer when healthy (which, admittedly, has been sporadic). There’s reason to dream on any of Houser, Lindblom, Peralta, Burnes or Lauer as a quality mid-rotation piece.

On the offensive side of things, it’s similarly difficult to forecast how things will play out. Milwaukee was a middle-of-the-road club in terms of total runs scored and wRC+ in 2019, and they’re losing both Grandal and Moustakas. At the same time, they’ll subtract an unthinkably poor chunk of at-bats from Travis Shaw, whose abrupt downturn at the plate caught everyone by surprise. Narvaez himself brings a pretty nice bat to the equation, and Garcia adds some production and upside to the mix. Smoak has plenty of power and a steady glove. It’s easy to see the infield as a strong group if things break right, but there’s readily apparent risk in relying on a group of options that has demonstrated such high levels of volatility in recent seasons.

The Brewers arguably have a wider range of plausible outcomes for their 2020 season than any club in the National League. That’s to be expected for a team whose offseason consisted on short-term, relatively low-AAV bets on what amounts to nearly half its roster. It’s a bulk approach to offseason acquisition the likes of which we haven’t seen in recent years, but perhaps one that was necessary for a team with minimal upper-level depth in the minors after depleting the farm via trades in recent years.

How would you grade the Brewers’ 2020 offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users) 

Offseason In Review: Colorado Rockies

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A season after locking superstar Nolan Arenado into a long-term deal, the Rockies entered the offseason with a payroll bordering on the highest in team history. Despite flirting with the idea of moving Arenado and his mega deal, Colorado largely stood pat. When the 2020 season begins, they will confront their rivals in the NL West with close to the same team that racked up 91 losses a year ago.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jose Mujica, RHP: $563K, split contract
  • Total spend: $563K

Trades and Claims

Options Decisions

  • None

Extensions

  • Trevor Story, SS: Two years, $27.5MM (includes $2MM signing bonus, $8MM salary in 2020, $17.5MM salary in 2021)
  • Scott Oberg, RHP: Three years, $13MM deal ($2MM in 2020, $4MM in 2021, $7MM in 2022, $8MM team option for 2023)

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

It’s been a long offseason for Rockies’ fans, even before COVID-19 put the season on temporary hold. The team that lost 91 games in 2019 didn’t get anything in the way of reinforcements over the winter. Executive VP & GM Jeff Bridich handed out just one major league contract — to Jose Mujica, a candidate for the rotation, though he has yet to make his major league debut. Mujica, 23, became a minor league free agent after six seasons in the Rays’ system. The 2019 season would have been his seventh with Tampa had he not undergone Tommy John and missed the entire year. In 2018, Mujica ascended as high as Triple-A where he notched a 2.80 ERA/2.81 FIP across 36 2/3 innings. He enjoyed good luck in the home run department over that span, as just 2.6% of the flyballs he allowed left the yard, but there’s at least a reasonable expectation for Mujica to join the pool of rotation candidates in Colorado, especially given their uncertainty in that department.

Colorado pitching, after all, has proven one of the more frustrating team-building challenges in the major leagues. The Sisyphean task of constructing even a league-average pitching staff at Coors Field persists year-after-year. Over the course of their 27-season history, the Rockies posted a league-average or better team ERA just three times (2010, 2009, 2007). In 2010, Jim Tracy’s 83-win squad finished with an exactly-league-average ERA, but those other two seasons — 2009, 2007 — happen to be two of the only three seasons in which the Rockies won 90 games in their history.

The third would be 2018. The Rockies pulled off a 91-win season the year before last, and though the pitching staff finished with a 4.33 ERA — slightly higher than the league average at 4.27 — they outplayed their pythagorean record by six wins and came within a play-in game of stealing the divisional crown from the Dodgers. Last season, the team ERA ballooned to 5.66, and Bud Black’s crew reversed their fortunes from a year before. The Rox weren’t the only pitchers to struggle last season, of course, as the league’s ERA on the whole ballooned from 4.27 in 2018 to 4.62 in 2019, but few staffs did so as mightily as the Rockies.

Regardless of where the league ERA falls in 2020, the blueprint is clear: if the Rockies can eek out average production from their pitchers, they’ll have a shot at contention. Unfortunately, the only additions from outside the organization this winter (beyond Mujica) were minor league signings like Ubaldo Jimenez, Tim Collins, Daniel Bard and Zac Rosscup. Jimenez made his debut in the rotation for that 2007 team, and he fronted the staff by 2009. Maybe there’s some wisdom he can impart about how to manage in Coors Field, but he’s unlikely to make much of a contribution on the hill. The 36-year-old last pitched in the majors in 2017 for the Orioles.

Collins may actually help in the bullpen, as he’s put up consistently solid ERAs when healthy. He shouldn’t be affected by the new three-batter rule either, with near identical splits versus lefties (.226/.339/.381) and versus righties (.235/.332/.358). That said, he’s yet to really re-establish himself after missing all of the 2015 and 2016 seasons after undergoing, you guessed it, Tommy John.

Worse yet for the Rockies, the messaging out of Colorado immediately after the season ended was that of befuddlement and frustration. Given that they didn’t spend much effort pursuing free agents, perhaps they’ve had time to figure out if the new baseball really was unduly launch-able in Colorado’s thin air, but as of November, the organization was still reeling and seemingly at a loss. Of course, a lot of time has passed since then, and time will tell if more stringent adherence to mechanical repetition can return Colorado hurlers like Jon Gray, Kyle Freeland, and German Marquez to unleashing better versions of themselves. Without bounce-back campaigns from their rotation – as well as closer Wade Davis, who was recently re-minted the ninth-inning man despite a 8.65 ERA/5.56 FIP in 2019 – the Rockies will have a tough time recording outs with consistency enough to compete in an increasingly competitive NL West.

On the position-player side, the Rockies should remain competitive, though their activity this winter was hardy encouraging. Mostly, they spent the winter engaged in a cold war with their franchise player, who felt “disrespected” by the organization while expressly voicing his desire to play for a contender. All is not lost, however, and Arenado remains an extremely valuable asset, even while raking in $35MM a year. He’s that good.

And yet, the rift between Arenado and the club is unsettling. For now, the Rockies have probably the best left side of the infield in all of baseball, but Trevor Story may not be a lifer in Colorado either. Story signed an extension this winter, which on its face may seem like a positive, but it merely preserves an existing window of control before he’s slated to qualify for free agency. Story’s deal settled his final two seasons of arbitration without buying out any free agent years.

Then there’s this: The expiration date of Story’s new deal coincides with a lot of money coming off the books in Colorado. Barring a long-term agreement, he’ll be a free agent after the 2021 season, at which time the Rockies will also be free of current upscale rosterees like Daniel Murphy, Bryan Shaw, Jake McGee, Ian Desmond, as well as Gray, the presumptive staff ace, who enters his final arbitration season in 2021. Arenado, as well, has an opt out that same offseason. The Rockies essentially have two seasons before they could face a complete organizational reset – which means the clock is ticking on any opportunities to get out in front of these free agent departures.

The offseason, however, felt anything but urgent. Having ramped up salaries in the past several years, Colorado doesn’t appear willing to spend beyond the current level. With an opening day payroll set to be around $156MM, per Fangraphs’ Roster Resource, the payroll remains exactly where it was at the start of this offseason.

Despite their overall stagnancy, the Rockies did extend their best bullpen arm in Scott Oberg. Bridich has poured a lot of money into the bullpen in recent years, and the results haven’t exactly been gold-star worthy. But the Oberg investment looks solid. Over 105 games the last two seasons, he’s put up a 2.35 ERA/3.20 FIP with 9.0 K/9 versus 2.7 BB/9, and the financial terms are modest.

2020 Outlook

It’s bound to be a tough season in Colorado. If they struggle out of the gate, the frigidity between the club and Arenado isn’t likely to improve, and the trade rumors will continue to swirl. They’ve shown no inclination towards dealing any of their top trade chips (Arenado, Story, Gray, David Dahl), but if the pitching doesn’t make an immediate and drastic 180 at the start of the season, Bridich may be forced to consider his options.

How would you grade the Rockies’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

2019-20 Offseason In Review Series

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MLBTR has begun its annual Offseason In Review series, looking at what all 30 teams did (or didn’t do) this winter.  We’ll have an entry for every team published within the coming days and weeks, so keep this post bookmarked to check on when your favorite team has been covered.

AL West

AL Central

  • Chicago White Sox
  • Cleveland Indians
  • Detroit Tigers
  • Kansas City Royals
  • Minnesota Twins

AL East

NL West

NL Central

NL East

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Angels

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Expectations were that the Angels would make a splashy addition to their rotation during the offseason. That didn’t happen. They did, however, reel in premier position player Anthony Rendon and one of the game’s most respected managers in Joe Maddon. A decades-long Angels employee before he went on to manage the Rays and Cubs to great success, Maddon’s taking over for Brad Ausmus, who lasted just one season as the club’s skipper.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Few teams possessed worse starting staffs than the Angels in 2019. They ranked dead last in fWAR (3.2) and second from the bottom in both ERA (5.64) and FIP (5.41). None of their starters even touched the 100-inning mark. The team endured an unthinkable tragedy when left-hander Tyler Skaggs passed away last July.

The Angels had no choice but to carry on without Skaggs, which meant trying to upgrade their rotation over the winter. They were connected to the top free-agent arms available (Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg and Zack Wheeler) and high-end trade targets such as the Indians’ Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco. Ultimately, despite a reported $300MM offer to Cole, the Angels did not emerge with him or any of the other aforementioned starters. But they at least came away with a couple durable back-end types, trading for Dylan Bundy of the Orioles and signing ex-Brave Julio Teheran. They’re not flashy, but the two have shown an ability to competently chew up innings, which matters for a team that couldn’t find anyone to do that a season ago. Bundy has thrown 160-plus innings three seasons in a row, while Teheran has seven straight seasons of 170-plus frames under his belt.

Although Bundy and Teheran make for welcome additions, the Angels could still open the season with an underwhelming group of starters. Part of that depends on when the season actually begins, though, with the coronavirus perhaps delaying it until June or later. Had the year begun on time, the Angels would not have had either Shohei Ohtani or Griffin Canning among their starting options. As of early February, Ohtani – continuing to work back from the Tommy John surgery he underwent in October 2018 – was targeting a mid-May return to pitching. Canning received “biological injections” in his elbow two weeks ago, and his 2020 outlook isn’t clear at this point.

Even having just one of Ohtan or Canning (especially Ohtani) available when the season commences would change the complexion of the Angels’ rotation. Otherwise, they may not field a particularly appealing or deep unit after Bundy, Teheran and Andrew Heaney. The rest of their healthy 40-man possibilities include Matt Andriese, Jaime Barria, Patrick Sandoval, Dillon Peters and Jose Suarez. Andriese spent all of last season as a reliever in Arizona, where he struggled; Barria and Sandoval have promise, but neither had success in the majors in 2019; and Peters and Suarez posted brutal numbers.

Luckily for the Halos, their lineup has the potential to terrorize opposing pitchers. The floor was already reasonably high with the best player in the world, center fielder Mike Trout, as well as Ohtani leading the way. They’ll now be joined by Rendon, a superstar third baseman whom the Angels signed to a seven-year, $245MM contract after he helped the Nationals to a World Series title last season.

The Rendon acquisition came after the Angels rid themselves of pricey, oft-injured infielder Zack Cozart, whom they essentially had to bribe the Giants to take. Getting his $12MM-plus salary for this season off the books cost the Angels a quality prospect in shortstop Will Wilson, a first-round pick from last June whom the Halos had to send to San Francisco in order to convince the Giants to take Cozart.

The Cozart gamble didn’t work out for the Angels in the two years he was on the team, though there’s little reason to believe they won’t get at least some high-end seasons out of Rendon. The soon-to-be 30-year-old, by far the foremost position player on the winter’s open market, has consistently been among the elite performers in baseball since his first full season in 2014. Rendon’s the owner of four seasons of at least 6.0 fWAR, including a career-high 7.0 last year. He’ll now displace David Fletcher at third in Anaheim. While Fletcher held his own at the hot corner last season, he’s capable of playing all over the diamond (he can also handle second, short and both corner outfield positions). That versatility should continue to make Fletcher a valuable piece of the team’s roster.

The Angels received little value out of the catcher position last year, when Jonathan Lucroy, Kevan Smith, Dustin Garneau, Max Stassi and Anthony Bemboom combined for a dismal minus-0.6 fWAR. Stassi and Bemboom are still with the organization, but they’ll take a backseat to new starter Jason Castro. The $6.85MM deal the Angels handed Castro, a former Astro and Twin, looks eminently reasonable when you consider what he brings to the table. The 32-year-old Castro is an enormous asset in the pitch-framing department who, throughout his career, has thrown out a roughly average number of would-be base stealers and offered passable production for his position on the offensive side. Castro’s track record suggests that he’ll be a major upgrade over the backstops the Angels relied on a year ago.

Trout, Ohtani, Rendon, Fletcher and Castro make for over half of a promising core of regulars. There are some questions elsewhere, though. For instance, can normally big-hitting left fielder Justin Upton bounce back from an injury-marred season? The same applies to defensively brilliant shortstop Andrelton Simmons, who’s entering the last year of his contract. Meanwhile, it’s fair to wonder if first baseman Albert Pujols has anything at all left in the tank, and whether infielder Tommy La Stella and right fielder Brian Goodwin can follow up on their surprising showings from 2019. Goodwin may not be long for a starting job unless he absolutely tears it up, as the Angels have a stud prospect in soon-to-be 21-year-old Jo Adell breathing down his neck. The fact that Adell is charging toward the bigs is among the reasons the Angels bid goodbye to longtime starting right fielder Kole Calhoun over the winter, buying him out for $1MM in lieu of exercising a $14MM option. If the coronavirus doesn’t rob us of a 2020 season, Adell figures to make his much-anticipated debut this year.

Along with some iffiness in their position player cast, the Angels are facing a bit of uncertainty in their bullpen. Their relief corps last year was only a middle-of-the-pack bunch – albeit one with some intriguing choices in Hansel Robles, Ty Buttrey, Cam Bedrosian, Noe Ramirez and Keynan Middleton – and the team didn’t make any obvious improvements during the offseason. The Angels instead just made small moves such as claiming righty Mike Mayers from the Cardinals and grabbing lefty Ryan Buchter on a non-guaranteed deal. At the very least, Buchter could end up as a sneaky good signing. He has a history of strong run prevention, though the fact that he walked more hitters and yielded more home runs than ever last season forced him to settle for a minors pact.

2020 Season Outlook

On paper, it’s fair to say this is a better Angels roster than the 2019 version that spiraled to a 72-90 record and extended the franchise’s playoff drought to five years. Whether the Angels will turn into real playoff contenders this season is another matter, though, largely because it’s once again tough to bank on their rotation operating at a high level. Moreover, the Angels find themselves in a division with at least two likely playoff contenders (the Astros and Athletics) and a Rangers club that seemingly bettered itself over the winter. However, at a minimum, it would be a disappointment for the Angels not to surpass the .500 mark for the first time since 2015.

How would you grade the Angels’ offseason? (Poll link for app users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Philadelphia Phillies

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The Phillies spent more than $100MM for a third consecutive winter — including a second straight offseason with a nine-figure contract — as they look to end a playoff drought that now spans close to a decade.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Philadelphia’s offseason kicked off with several days of deliberation over the fate of former manager Gabe Kapler. General manager Matt Klentak reportedly supported Kapler until the end but was overruled by owner John Middleton. The Phillies set right to work in interviewing some of the most experienced and decorated managers in recent memory, ultimately settling on Joe Girardi, who was hired just two weeks after Kapler’s ousting was announced.

The 2019 Phillies were a middle-of-the-pack club in terms of runs scored and a decidedly below-average club in terms of their overall rate stats at the plate (91 wRC+ as a team). Phillies starting pitchers were middle-of-the-road in terms of total innings (13th) and ERA (17th). Fielding-independent metrics painted similarly underwhelming pictures. The bullpen looked like a strength heading into the year — until virtually every reliever on the Phillies’ roster went down with an injury. The patchwork collection of bullpen arms that Klentak and his staff put together on the fly was — you guessed it — right in the middle of the pack (16th in ERA, 14th in xFIP).

To the credit of Klentak and the Phillies, one of the goals last winter was to upgrade the defense — and they did, by leaps and bounds. No team improved more defensively in 2019, although that’s in large part because their ’18 glovework was astonishingly bad. The Phillies posted a stunning -118 Defensive Runs Saved in 2018 but remarkably ranked eighth in the Majors at +51 in 2019. Unfortunately, injuries, regression elsewhere and a lack of progress from some younger players counteracted much of that improvement. The 2019 Phillies finished out the year as an average team with the bat and on the mound, so the resulting 81-81 record probably shouldn’t have been a surprise.

With so much room for improvement with regard to the offense and the pitching staff, Klentak and company had a wide variety of avenues to pursue, but the GM made clear early in the winter that augmenting the rotation was his priority. Looking at pitching ahead of the offense indeed seemed prudent; a full season of Andrew McCutchen, a rebound from Rhys Hoskins after a second-half slump, and the addition a smaller-scale upgrade over Maikel Franco could reasonably be viewed as a path to an improved offense. The pitching side was far less clear.

Aaron Nola, of course, has cemented himself as a high-quality rotation cog, but the rest of the Phillies’ staff was less appealing. Jake Arrieta no longer looks the part of a $25MM arm and had surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow late in the year. Zach Eflin is a solid back-of-the-rotation option but lacks a lofty ceiling. Vince Velasquez and Nick Pivetta both took significant steps back in 2019. And the farm system lacks much in the way of quality, MLB-ready pitching (excepting, perhaps, top prospect Spencer Howard).

The question was just how aggressive the team should be in pursuing its preferred options. The Phillies spent $330MM on Bryce Harper a winter ago, showing they can spend as highly as anyone in the game, but they were never strongly connected to Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg. Rather, it was the market’s No. 3 arm, Zack Wheeler, who quickly emerged as a top entrant on the Phillies’ wishlist.

“One of the things we’ve got to try to do, if we can, is to not forfeit draft picks, and that’s hard when you’re fishing in the deep end of the free-agent pond,” Klentak said in an early November interview with the 94WIP Midday Show. That seemed to cast some doubt on whether the Phils would seriously pursue Wheeler or whether they’d instead look to Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dallas Keuchel, or another veteran arm who hadn’t rejected a qualifying offer. However, less than a month later, the Phillies agreed to a five-year, $118MM deal with Wheeler.

The price shocked some onlookers, although the Phillies weren’t even the highest bidder. Multiple reports indicated that the White Sox offered more than $120MM over a five-year term, but Wheeler had a preference to remain on the east coast, spurning Chicago’s advances and perhaps dissuading the also-interested Twins from upping their initial five-year, $100MM offer. Wheeler is already a quality arm, but his blend of relative youth, velocity, strikeout prowess and elite spin rate give him the feel of a breakout candidate. The Phillies are surely hoping that there’s another gear for Wheeler; going from a team with -86 Defensive Runs Saved to one who posted +51 DRS also shouldn’t hurt his cause.

There’s an argument to be made that the Phillies should’ve pursued a second starting pitcher. The combination of Nola, Wheeler, Arrieta and Eflin has the makings of a solid top four, but both Pivetta and Velasquez have struggled in multiple rotation auditions. Ranger Suarez, Enyel De Los Santos, Cole Irvin and others loom as depth options, and the aforementioned Howard should open the season in Double-A (with an eventual MLB promotion in 2020 not out of the question entirely). But the Phillies are a team in dire “win-now” mode, having missed the postseason each year since 2011.  Despite Klentak’s three-year extension from last winter, the GM had to field questions about his own job security this offseason, and the fact that he was overruled on Kapler’s future only puts further pressure on him to put a winner on the field.

Relying on internal options to round out the fifth spot again, then, is a particularly dicey proposition. The market featured plenty of solid veterans who took an annual value of $10MM or less — Michael Pineda, Kyle Gibson, Wade Miley, Rick Porcello among them — and several bounceback candidates with some degree of ceiling signed for under $10MM (e.g. Alex Wood, Drew Smyly, Kevin Gausman, Michael Wacha, Taijuan Walker). The Wheeler addition, however, proved to be Philadelphia’s only rotation pickup of the winter on either the Major League or minor league side.

From there, the front office set its sights on improving a lineup that has a number of solid pieces but still plenty of uncertainty. Odubel Herrera’s domestic violence suspension and poor performance at the plate led to him being outrighted off the 40-man roster, but he lacks the service time to reject the assignment while retaining the remainder of his contract.  That leaves Herrera stuck in the organization, and leaves the Phillies with a fairly notable question mark in center field. Beyond that, Philadelphia’s decision to jettison both Franco and Cesar Hernandez via non-tender — the former due to continued ineffectiveness and the latter more due to his escalating arbitration price — left a pair of potential spots for upgrade in the infield.

The key piece for the Phillies in all of this was versatile youngster Scott Kingery, who has proven himself to be not just a capable defender at multiple positions but a legitimate asset at a number of spots on the diamond. His ability to move around left the Phillies able to explore the market for center fielders, third basemen, second basemen and shortstops alike. In the end, the decision was made to sign Didi Gregorius to a one-year deal, slide Jean Segura from shortstop to second base, and deploy Kingery as the primary third baseman. That sets up former first-round pick Adam Haseley as the primary center fielder, although he could be in a platoon of sorts with fleet-footed Roman Quinn. Alternatively, the Phils could play Kingery in center against lefties and go with a non-roster veteran like Josh Harrison or Neil Walker at third base on those days.

The Gregorius addition is a bet on a rebound for a player who looked to be emerging as a high-end shortstop before 2018 Tommy John surgery interrupted that trajectory. Gregorius was sensational for the ’18 Yankees, hitting .268/.335/.494 with quality glovework. A return to that level of play would be a boon for the Phils, and while defensive metrics show a fairly wide split in evaluating his glove at shortstop, the hope is that Gregorius will represent a further defensive upgrade over Segura.

As was the case with the pitching staff, though, it seems like the Phillies could’ve gone bigger. Gregorius is a perfectly sensible one-year gamble or even a potential bargain at $14MM, but it’s hard to overlook the fact that the plan in center field is to trot out a 24-year-old who hit .266/.324/.396 (88 wRC+) in his debut campaign last year. Haseley appears to be a capable defender, but he played in all of 18 games in Triple-A before his call to the Majors and has yet to prove he can hit big league pitching at an average rate. The free-agent market was pretty thin, but the Phillies could’ve also pursued any number of third-base options and installed Kingery in center field. Trades for veterans like Starling Marte or even Kris Bryant would’ve made sense on paper.

In the bullpen, the club opted not to make much of any additions at all. Tommy Hunter returns on a surprising big league deal but with a meager $850K salary. Some combination of Francisco Liriano, Anthony Swarzak, Bud Norris and Blake Parker could parlay a non-roster invite into a spot on the MLB roster, and waiver pickups like Reggie McClain and Deolis Guerra give the Phils some additional depth. However, the team is relying on a cast of characters that didn’t perform particularly well in 2019, hoping for numerous bounce-backs or returns to health. In the case of the talented Seranthony Dominguez, it appears they may already be out of luck on the injury front.

The Phillies’ lack of supplemental moves and their proximity to the $208MM luxury tax threshold makes it impossible not to wonder whether Klentak and his staff were instructed to keep the payroll south of that line. Owner John Middleton told reporters in February that he never expressly dictated as much to Klentak, but it’s hard to see a win-now club with a few obvious holes sitting narrowly under the line and not connect those dots. It’s quite likely that one or two names from the cavalcade of non-roster veterans will make the Phillies’ roster, perhaps pushing them right up against that barrier.

If there’s one pending piece of business for the Phils, it’s the status of one of their best all-around players: catcher J.T. Realmuto. The two sides have spent much of the spring at the negotiation table in hopes of hammering out a long-term deal that’ll keep the All-Star from the open market next winter, but talks have been put on hold for now. With Realmuto reportedly seeking to top Buster Posey’s $159MM guarantee — perhaps on a six-year pact — it could be tough for the two sides to come to mutually agreeable terms.

2020 Season Outlook

The Phillies should be a better team in 2020 than they were in 2019, but it feels like they pulled some punches this winter. Perhaps Haseley will solidify himself as a quality regular in center, and perhaps one of Pivetta or Velasquez will finally break out into the quality starter many have believed them to potentially be. It feels like this team could’ve used another addition or two, though, and that’s a tough spot to be in when considering the level of competition they’ll face.

The Nationals are fresh off a World Series win. The Braves, buoyed by one of MLB’s best young cores, have won consecutive division titles. The Mets have one of the game’s most talented collection of pitchers — even if several key names are seeking a bounceback season. Even the rebuilding Marlins added some veterans this winter and should be a tougher opponent than they were in 2019.

It should be another tight NL East race whenever we do get a season, and while the Phillies won’t be considered a favorite, there’s enough talent on the club to end their increasingly long postseason drought.

How would you grade the Phillies’ offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users) 

Offseason In Review: Boston Red Sox

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A transformative offseason for the Red Sox saw the club trade its franchise player, make an unexpected managerial change, and (perhaps most importantly in ownership’s view?) duck under the luxury tax threshold.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

When Alex Cora, Dave Dombrowski, Mookie Betts, and David Price were all taking turns hoisting the Commissioner’s Trophy in October 2018, it would’ve seemed inconceivable that all four men would no longer be members of the Red Sox organization just 15 months later.  And yet, it didn’t take long for the Sox to go from a 108-win World Series champion to a team suddenly facing a lot of questions.

Dombrowski was the first to depart, let go in early September amidst some reports suggesting Red Sox ownership considered firing him even a year prior.  As surprising as Dombrowski’s ouster was, Cora’s quick fall from grace was even more of a shock.  After the league’s report on the Astros’ sign-stealing exploits during the 2017 season cited Cora (then the Astros’ bench coach) as a key author of how Houston’s system of video footage and trash can-banging was constructed, the Sox fired Cora before MLB could announce even what punishment the now-former Red Sox skipper would face.

Speaking of stolen signs, the Red Sox are still currently awaiting the results of Major League Baseball’s investigation into whether or not the Sox made inappropriate use of video footage to steal signs during their own World Series campaign in 2018.  While the Red Sox aren’t expected to be as punished as severely as the Astros were, it’s probably safe to assume that some type of penalty is forthcoming, perhaps in the form of a lost draft pick or two.

Needless to say, Chaim Bloom had a lot to deal with after being hired as Boston’s new chief baseball officer in late October.  Bloom was already deep into offseason business before having to deal with an unforeseen managerial change, which could be one reason why the Sox chose to promote from within by naming bench coach Ron Roenicke as the interim manager.  Roenicke is a safe choice but hardly a bad one, as he is a known figure to Boston’s roster and had success in his only prior big league managerial stint with the Brewers from 2011-15.  If the Sox play well in 2020, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Roenicke become a longer-term answer in Boston’s dugout.

As a longtime member of the Rays front office, Bloom’s first offseason in total control of a baseball operations department resulted in something of a Tampa Bay-esque winter for the Sox.  It was an offseason of mostly low-cost signings and acquisitions, while moving a pair of expensive players in a trade that was driven largely by financial motivations.

Let’s start with the biggest blockbuster of the entire offseason: the Betts/Price trade with the Dodgers. What began as a three-team deal involving the Twins turned into another Los Angeles/Boston blockbuster after the Sox took issue with the medical records of Minnesota prospect Brusdar Graterol, who was supposed to be the one of the young minor league centerpieces headed to Boston in the deal.  In the end, the three-team arrangement was broken down in to two separate deals, with Graterol ending up going to Los Angeles as part of the trade that sent Kenta Maeda to the Twins, and the Red Sox swinging a deal with the Dodgers that saw Betts, Price, and $48MM (covering half of Price’s contract) for three interesting young talents.

Jeter Downs immediately became the top prospect in Boston’s farm system and potential second baseman of the future, while catcher/infielder Connor Wong also gives the Red Sox a future option behind the plate or even as a multi-positional backup catcher.  Both of these youngsters could be on track for the big leagues as early as 2021, while outfielder Alex Verdugo is already coming off a strong performance (.294/.342/.475 in 377 PA) in 2019, his first extended stint against Major League pitching.  Verdugo is expected to take over for Betts in right field, perhaps as early as the new Opening Day, as the delayed start to the season will likely give him time to recover from a stress fracture in his lower back.

It’s not at all a bad prospect haul, yet it’s also one many Boston fans and media members found inconceivable, given that one of pro sports’ wealthiest franchises was surrendering one of the game’s best players in what seemed like more or less a salary dump.  Principal owner John Henry’s late-September statement that the 2020 Sox “need to be under” the Competitive Balance Tax threshold after two seasons of overages loomed large over each transaction Bloom made this winter, no matter how much Henry tried to downplay his original comments both before and after the Betts trade.  Boston’s luxury tax number now stands at just under $196MM, as per Roster Resource, below the $208MM luxury tax threshold and indeed putting the Red Sox in line to reset their tax bill to zero.

A third consecutive season of CBT overage would have cost the Sox a 50 percent tax on every dollar spent over the $208MM threshold, plus an additional 12 percent surtax if their luxury tax number stood within the secondary penalty range ($228MM-$248MM).  As well, the Red Sox would’ve received a 50 percent deduction in their cut of revenue-sharing rebates, as outlined by the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier.

As of mid-January, Boston’s luxury tax payroll stood at roughly $237.89MM, so that third-timer penalty rate wouldn’t have been an insignificant extra expenditure….yet considering the franchise’s vast resources, it’s also hard to consider it a truly significant expenditure either, considering the on-field value lost by removing Betts from the lineup.

With a bit more hindsight, the Sox could’ve given themselves more CBT breathing room had they non-tendered Jackie Bradley Jr. back in December, as their subsequent efforts to trade the center fielder ended up fruitless.  Perhaps the Red Sox could have re-signed Bradley for a lower amount than his $11MM salary, or perhaps just replaced him with Kevin Pillar (a comparable player) at a much lesser price.  An outfield of Betts, Pillar, and Andrew Benintendi clearly looks more imposing than Boston’s current alignment of Verdugo, Bradley, and Benintendi, with Pillar as the fourth outfielder.

From a pure baseball perspective, Boston’s argument for trading Betts was that it made more sense to deal him now rather than risk letting him leave in free agency for nothing (save a qualifying offer compensation pick) next winter, or perhaps dealing him for a lesser package closer to the trade deadline if the Red Sox were out of the playoff race.  But, ownership has maintained all along that they intend the Sox to be contenders in 2020, and trading Betts and Price runs counter to that notion.

Going back to the hypothetical scenario I floated earlier, let’s pretend the Red Sox kept Price and Betts, non-tendered Bradley, and still signed Pillar and Mitch Moreland.  Let’s also assume a few more dollars are spent here and there over the course of the season to bring Boston’s tax number to $245MM.  That works out to a three-timer CBT bill just shy of $21MM, plus the approximately $6MM in lost revenue-sharing rebate money as calculated in Speier’s piece.

In essence, that makes the decision to trade Betts and Price a $27MM choice in terms of immediate money, plus the Red Sox get the peace of mind of knowing that they’re under the threshold now rather than having to perhaps scramble next winter to avoid a fourth year of CBT payments.  Rafael Devers and Eduardo Rodriguez are due for big arbitration raises next offseason, which would’ve counteracted some of the savings from having Moreland, Pillar, Perez, Workman, and still-with-the-Red Sox Betts all coming off the books.  (Plus, J.D. Martinez also has another opt-out decision at season’s end, so he might not be part of the 2021 roster.)

Is saving $27MM worth a much more difficult path back to the postseason?  Even with Betts and Price, obviously the Red Sox would’ve still faced a stiff test from their AL East rivals, plus more competition from the American League as a whole for wild card positions.  But, had the Sox not been in contention by the deadline this year, they could’ve traded some contracts to duck under the luxury tax anyway — or, had until the end of the 2021 season to figure out ways to avoid paying a penalty for a fourth straight season.

The Reds, Cardinals, Blue Jays, and Padres were all reported to have interest in acquiring Price over the offseason, but since the Red Sox weren’t able to trade the left-hander (and enough of his $96MM contract) alone, they ultimately had to package Price together with Betts to finally swing a deal.  Figuring out a solo Price deal quite possibly could have kept Betts in a Sox uniform in 2020, though Price’s own departure has no small impact on Boston’s roster.

Martin Perez was signed prior to the Price trade, but he will essentially serve as a southpaw-for-southpaw replacement in the rotation.  Perez had a fairly hot start to his 2019 season with Minnesota but saw his productivity plummet beginning in late May.  As much as Bloom is optimistic about Perez’s untapped potential, the lefty has been a mid-rotation innings-eater even during the best of times during his eight MLB seasons.

While Price’s age and injury history also make him a question mark heading into 2020, his presence would’ve brought more stability to the pitching staff than the current mix.  Ostensible staff ace Chris Sale is battling elbow problems and could still potentially face some type of surgery, though he’s begun a throwing program, and the Sox are hoping the extra rest in the elongated offseason allows Sale time to heal without missing any games.  Rodriguez is coming off a strong year, but Nathan Eovaldi is coming off an injury-plagued season and a wide array of arms (or an opener) could end up filling that fifth rotation spot.  The newly-signed Collin McHugh is a bit of a wild card as a either a rotation or bullpen candidate, assuming McHugh (who was only cleared to throw in late February) is himself healthy after dealing with elbow injuries.

McHugh could ultimately make more of an impact to the relief corps, which didn’t get much attention despite an overall middle-of-the-road performance in 2019.  The Sox are hoping that a change in roles can help, as Brandon Workman’s emergence as the closer can add some clarity to the rest of the bullpen’s roles.  If openers do become a part of Boston’s rotation picture, there could be more mix-and-match than usual in the Red Sox pen, perhaps taking a page from how the Rays used their relievers under Bloom over the last couple of seasons.

Besides Price, the Red Sox said goodbye to another veteran starter this offseason when Rick Porcello signed a free agent contract with the Mets.  A pair of other recent roster staples also departed, as super-utilityman Brock Holt signed with the Brewers and backup catcher Sandy Leon was dealt to the Indians.  New signings Kevin Plawecki and Jonathan Lucroy are competing for the backup catching job, while Jose Peraza will now somewhat replace Holt as a multi-position asset.  For now, Boston plans to use Peraza mostly as a second baseman, splitting time with Michael Chavis whenever Chavis isn’t filling in for Moreland at first base against left-handed pitching.  However, Peraza has experience at short and in the outfield, so he could move around in the event of injuries elsewhere on the roster.

2020 Season Outlook

We’ve gone this deep into the offseason review without really mentioning the three biggest reasons why the Red Sox could still contend for a wild card berth — Devers, Martinez, and Xander Bogaerts, who form as tough of a 1-2-3 punch as any lineup trio in baseball.  That group of sluggers goes a long way towards propping up a lineup that has some uncertainty, but also a lot of potential in Christian Vazquez, Verdugo, Benintendi, Chavis, Peraza and Moreland.  Even pitching-wise, despite all the injury questions, the Sox certainly have talent on hand if Sale and Eovaldi can stay healthy and Rodriguez matches his 2019 form.

Simply running it back with Betts and Price on this roster would’ve been a perfectly respectable idea on paper, except that Red Sox ownership felt it was more prudent to take a step back to reload the farm system and take the opportunity to get what they felt was an untenable contract (Price) off the books.  Ideally, the Sox wouldn’t have had to trade Betts to make that work, though perhaps reading between the tea leaves, the club felt Betts wasn’t going to re-sign with with Boston anyway next winter, making him ultimately expendable as a trade chip rather than as a long-term asset.

It’s a tough pill to swallow for the Fenway faithful, who have a right to be annoyed that the same Red Sox ownership group who has okayed several big-money signings and extensions over the years now feel the “need to” (to use Henry’s words from September) enact some financial prudence, even if it meant trading Betts.  Time will tell if the decision ends up being wise, but the window of contention that looked so wide open after the 2018 season is now much narrower.

How would you grade the Red Sox offseason?  (Link for app users.)

Offseason In Review: New York Mets

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The Mets doubled down on their roster core and added some risky but upside-laden pitchers.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Whatever you may think about the Mets and GM Brodie Van Wagenen, you can’t accuse them of being uninteresting. Van Wagenen has toned down some of the public bravado he exhibited in his first offseason at the helm, and didn’t oversee any wild blockbusters or major spending outlays this winter, but still delivered a fairly bold slate of moves — at least, within the organization’s own limitations.

There’s ample upside in the new arms that the team added. It’s probably not worth considering the earlier ceilings of Porcello and Wacha as reasonably plausible scenarios, but it’s not hard to imagine either or both functioning as quality mid-rotation types. Likewise, it’ll be a tall order for Betances and Brach to revisit their peak seasons, but even ~75% of what they’ve shown at their best would be a nice outcome for the New York org. You could say the same for Marisnick, who has one above-average offensive season under his belt and a track record of excellent glovework.

Sure, each of those guys comes with an equivalent downside scenario. Porcello and Brach allowed more than five earned runs per nine in 2019. Wacha and Betances come with major health questions. Marisnick’s career 79 wRC+ actually lags that of the man he’ll effectively replace, fellow defensive standout Juan Lagares. But still, for a cumulative investment of twenty-five million bucks, it’s not a bad value play at all.

All that said … wanna guess which NL East team spent the least this offseason? Nope, not the Marlins. It’s the Mets, even in a winter in which they realized enormous cost savings in the final year of their agreement with Yoenis Cespedes. Let’s revisit what I wrote at the outset of the offseason:

So, unless the Wilpon ownership group is preparing to commit more cash to the cause, the front office is going to have to get very creative. The Mets roster does have quite a bit of talent, but it’s also the same essential unit that fell short this year and could certainly stand to be supplemented in several areas. 

It’s clear how important the Cespedes savings were. Originally promised $29.5MM before suffering a pair of ankle injuries in an accident on his ranch, the veteran slugger is now promised just $6MM. The difference accounts for virtually all of the team’s spending … sort of.

Odds are the Mets will end up being obligated for more than that amount — on a pro-rated basis, anyway, depending upon how the league and union sort out the complicated contractual questions posed by the season delay. But the team will for the most part be in control of its incentive pay and thereby gain some assurance of a return on it. Cespedes earns another $5MM so long as he returns to the active roster (or hits the IL with a different injury); he can also tally another $9MM through plate appearance incentives. Wacha’s deal includes a load of upside if he’s healthy and throwing well enough to keep getting the ball.

That flexible situation was designed to help the club deal with a rather high-variance roster. And to be fair, the Wilpons did sign off on a club-record payroll, though it’s a modest year-over-year move from just under to just over $160MM (that’s not including whatever is still owed to David Wright by the team, the details of which aren’t known, or any incentive money).

Going back to that pre-season piece I wrote … the very next lines:

There’s no true center fielder. We all know how the bullpen looked in 2019. The rotation is missing one piece and still also needs depth. 

Well, there you have it. The club checked each of those boxes with the above-cited MLB signings and trades. But doing so on a budget meant sacrificing in several regards, and left a roster that has some clear pathways to success but also some real questions.

Spending more or striking a trade might’ve provided a clearer answer in center field. Instead, the Mets added a player in Marisnick who may best function as a platoon piece against left-handed pitching and late-game defender/baserunner. This could work out fine — if Brandon Nimmo is able to produce at a high level at the plate (which seems likely) and provide at least palatable glovework (less clear).

The outfield mix contains some good pieces. Michael Conforto is another strong lefty bat; southpaw swinger Dominic Smith off the bench is quite the luxury. J.D. Davis was a beast last year. Cespedes may now be ready for a delayed Opening Day. It’s just … those pieces don’t really seem to be from the same puzzle. The Mets seemingly declined to sacrifice long-term value (their assessment of it, anyway) to compose a cleaner 2020 picture. Smith and Davis aren’t the most comfortable fits, but the Mets understandably love their bats. The club will bet that talent and depth will produce success in one way or another — which, honestly, doesn’t sound so crazy but could perhaps fail to function in practice.

It’s a much simpler situation in the infield, where the Mets have no choice but to hope for a bounce back from Robinson Cano, continued growth of double-play partner Amed Rosario, and further excellence from Jeff McNeil (who’ll step in at third base) and lovable new star Pete Alonso. Behind the dish, the Mets will hope that Wilson Ramos can sustain some improvements in meshing with the pitching staff late in 2019 and keep Tomas Nido as the reserve. Utility candidates include Luis Guillorme, Eduardo Nunez, Max Moroff, and Jed Lowrie — if he’s able to get back to health.

There’s an awful lot of potential pop in that assembly of bats, though there’s also potential for offensive variance and the defensive picture isn’t as compelling. But the potential for swings between greatness and disaster is all the more evident in the pitching staff.

Nobody is going to complain about a starting unit fronted by the game’s top pitcher (Jacob deGrom), one of its highest-upside hurlers (Noah Syndergaard), and an accomplished but still-youthful sidekick (Marcus Stroman). With talented lefty Steven Matz now joined by Porcello and Wacha, there’s an appealing back-end mix. But several of these hurlers have had health issues of late and the depth falls off considerably from that point. Still, this remains the Mets’ chief strength. There’s obvious potential for this to be the game’s best rotation.

The toughest place on the roster to project is undoubtedly the bullpen. Rewind a few years, and you’d be looking at an all-out monster of a unit featuring some of the game’s best short-stint hurlers in Betances, Brach, Edwin Diaz, and Jeurys Familia. That’s not all. Seth Lugo was outstanding last year, lefty Justin Wilson was good as well (and has been better in the past), and Robert Gsellman has a track record that suggests he can be a solid contributor. It’s just that … it’s hard to ignore the terrible outcomes (or lack of innings) produced by much of this group last year. The Mets have a lot of cash invested in this unit and can’t be sure they have up-and-coming arms or available resources to patch any holes that arise.

2020 Season Outlook

The Mets look about as good on paper as any team in the division. And there’s arguably a greater ceiling with this club than its chief competitors. That said, it’s precisely the sort of competitive position where some added expenditures might’ve gone a long way. And it’s not clear whether ownership will give the front office spending capacity to bolster the roster if it’s in position to add at mid-season (if that’s even an option in a truncated campaign). Mets fans will have to hope for the best … all while waiting to see what comes of an uncertain ownership situation following the collapse of an agreed-upon sale of the franchise.

How would you grade the Mets’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Rays

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After reaching the ALDS last season, the Rays had their usual busy offseason in search of the roster mix that could bring them into championship contention.

Major League Signings

  • Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, 3B/OF: Two years, $12MM (plus $2.4MM in posting/release fees to Yokohama DeNA BayStars)
  • Total spend: $14.4MM

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

After finishing second among Tampa Bay position players with a 3.3 fWAR in 2019, Tommy Pham found himself heading out of town, sent to the Padres as part of a four-player deal.  The minor leaguers exchanged in that deal — highly-touted infielder Xavier Edwards and a potential two-way threat in Jake Cronenworth — are certainly noteworthy, with the Rays getting the slightly longer-term prospect in Edwards while Cronenworth could help San Diego as early as this season.  But, looking at just the big-league return in the trade, the Rays sent an older, pricier, but more established hitter in Pham to the Padres for the powerful but less-polished young slugger in Hunter Renfroe.

With 70 homers over 1450 career plate appearances, we know Renfroe can mash, though his lifetime batting average (.235) and OBP (.294) leave much to be desired.  2019 saw Renfroe enjoy something of a breakout in the first half of the season before being hampered by injuries, though even Renfroe’s numbers prior to the All-Star break (.252/.308/.613 with 27 homers in 289 PA) showed only modest improvement in the average and on-base categories.

Nonetheless, Renfroe is almost four full years younger than Pham, brings more defensive versatility as an outfielder who can be deployed in center field in a pinch, and has a much lower price tag.  Renfroe is controlled through the 2023 season as a Super Two player, and is set to earn $3.3MM in 2020, his first arbitration-eligible year.  By contrast, Pham will earn $7.9MM in 2020, which is the second of three arb years.

In short, the deal almost seems like a prototypical Rays move — they got a bit younger, saved some money, and acquired a player in Renfroe who could offer enough untapped potential to be just as good or better than Pham in 2020 (plus, there’s also the lingering injury question of Pham’s elbow).  Flexibility and depth continue to be paramount in Tampa’s approach to roster building, as the Rays can wield a lineup that offers a lot of different looks, and is stocked with players who could be moved around to different positions based on circumstances.

Consider the Rays’ major free agent signing of the winter, as they landed Japanese slugger Yoshitomo Tsutsugo after a focused recruitment process that convinced Tsutsugo to reject more expensive offers for Tampa Bay’s two-year, $12MM contract.  Tsutsugo is a bit of a defensive question mark as a first baseman or left fielder, yet the Rays are planning to give Tsutsugo a look at third base; a position he hasn’t played since 2014.

It’s safe to assume that Yandy Diaz will end up getting the majority of playing time at third base, but if Tsutsugo can step in at the hot corner even once in a while to spell Diaz against a tough righty starter, that opens up a spot in the lineup for a left-handed hitting Joey Wendle, or perhaps another lefty bat in Nate Lowe (should Lowe make the Opening Day roster).  Even if the Tsutsugo/third base experiment doesn’t work out, Wendle can play third base himself, and Tsutsugo could perhaps then just be slotted into the first base/DH mix.

Speaking of first base/DH candidates, the Rays added another prominent name to that list in acquiring Jose Martinez from the Cardinals.  Rumors have swirled about the Rays’ interest in Martinez for well over a year, and the lefty-crushing slugger will now be the primary right-handed hitting first base/DH option, alongside the lefty-swinging Tsutsugo, Lowe, and Ji-Man Choi.  While Martinez can play first base or a corner outfield spot, he is probably the rare Rays pickup who wasn’t targeted for his roster flexibility, due to Martinez’s longstanding defensive struggles.

Between Martinez, Tsutsugo, and Renfroe, the Rays hope they can replace or top the 57 home runs that departed last year’s lineup — Pham, Avisail Garcia (who signed with the Brewers) and Travis d’Arnaud (who signed with the Braves).  The long ball wasn’t a big weapon for Tampa Bay in 2019, as their 217 homers ranked them 21st of the 30 teams, but that number could rise thanks to both the new faces and healthier seasons from the likes of Diaz, Wendle, and Brandon Lowe.

With Guillermo Heredia non-tendered and Garcia leaving in free agency, the Rays looked at such free agents as Yasiel Puig and Shogo Akiyama as options in the outfield.  Instead, Tampa Bay bolstered its outfield depth by adding Randy Arozarena as part of the trade with the Cardinals, while also acquiring Manuel Margot in another trade with the Padres.  It was only a few years ago that Margot was a consensus top-25 prospect in all of baseball, and while he has shown to be an excellent defender at the MLB level, his bat (84 wRC+, 87 OPS+) has yet to emerge.  Since Margot is still only 25, it isn’t out of the question that he could be a late bloomer.

The Rays paid a pretty substantial price for Margot, sending their 2019 saves leader in Emilio Pagan westward.  Pagan’s lone season in Tampa Bay was a very impressive one, as he recorded 20 saves while posting a 2.31 ERA, 7.38 K/BB rate, and 12.3 K/9 over 70 innings.  Between Pagan, Austin Pruitt (dealt to the Astros), Jose De Leon, and Matthew Liberatore, the Rays did more subtracting than adding to their pitching, though Tampa is arguably one of the few teams deep enough in pitching options to handle dealing from a surplus.

To this end, the Rays will count on their collection of arms to manage the bullpen, with a closing committee of Diego Castillo, Nick Anderson, Jose Alvarado, and possibly others to handle save situations.  As for the rotation, the Rays will can always fall back on using an opener if necessary, but the team looks ready to enter the season with a rotation of five proper starting pitchers: Charlie Morton, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yonny Chirinos, and likely one of Ryan Yarbrough or Brendan McKay.  There is some uncertainty within that group given Glasnow’s injury-riddled 2019 and Snell’s nagging elbow problems, though both are expected to be ready by the time the 2020 season eventually gets underway.

As with basically any Rays player that makes a substantial salary, there was some speculation that Morton could be a trade chip now or in the near future, should Tampa Bay fall out of the pennant race.  Morton is being paid $15MM in 2020 and (if he doesn’t retire) he has a vesting option on his services for 2021 that will be worth another $15MM if he spends less than 30 days on the injured list this season.  The 36-year-old is still pitching at a very high level, and it makes sense why the Rays seemingly didn’t test the market for him this offseason, as Morton is even more valuable considering the lingering health questions surrounding Snell and Glasnow.

Pham ended up being the one larger salary moved off Tampa’s books, which was probably the more logical move than trading Morton since good outfield help is somewhat easier to find than a front-of-the-rotation pitcher.  GM Erik Neander faces a difficult challenge in trying to manage a small budget while also trying to build a contender, and as such Rays trades are rarely as simple as a one-for-one swap.  Getting young talent back in deals is of critical importance, whether it’s landing Edwards from San Diego, a higher Competitive Balance Round draft pick from St. Louis, or acquiring catching prospect Logan Driscoll from the Padres in the Pagan deal.  Driscoll was the Padres’ second-round pick in the 2019 draft, and down the road he could develop into yet another “catcher of the future” candidate for a Rays franchise that has long looked for stability behind the plate.

After d’Arnaud signed with Atlanta, the Rays will head into 2020 with Mike Zunino as their starting catcher.  Zunino’s struggles led to d’Arnaud taking over the regular job last season, leaving the Rays hoping that Zunino’s dreadful year was just an aberration.  A couple of veteran backstops in Kevan Smith and Chris Herrmann are in camp on minor league deals, and Michael Perez is in the in-house contender for the backup position.  Unless Zunino gets on track during the season, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Rays make catching a priority before the trade deadline.

Between dealing Pham, the free agent departures, and non-tendering players like Heredia, Jesus Aguilar, and Matt Duffy, the Rays opened up enough money to do some offseason spending without much changing their financial outlook.  As per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Rays have a projected Opening Day payroll of just under $67.6MM, which represents an increase of barely $150K over their season-ending 40-man roster payroll.

The Rays’ spending habits continue to draw attention from the MLBPA, whose grievance against the team’s use of revenue-sharing funds (in essence, wondering why those funds aren’t being spent on player salaries) was expanded to cover both the 2017-18 and 2018-19 offseasons.  Grievance notwithstanding, it doesn’t appear as if much will change for the Rays on the payroll front unless they are finally able to land their long-desired new ballpark in Tampa or St. Petersburg…or perhaps one new stadium in the Tampa/St. Pete area and another in Montreal, should the organization’s unusual split-city concept comes to fruition.

2020 Season Outlook

If it’s possible for a team to quietly win 96 games, the Rays did just that in 2019, finishing just a game short of the highest win total in franchise history.  Nothing Tampa Bay did this winter remotely came close to the Yankees’ $324MM splash on Gerrit Cole, and while New York’s on-paper roster seems far more star-studded than the Rays’ collection, Tampa finished only seven games out of the AL East lead last season.  While the Yankees famously won 103 games despite a myriad of injuries last year, the Rays also achieved their success despite losing a number of key players for long stretches of time.

The American League will be more competitive on the whole in 2020, so even capturing another wild card would represent a nice achievement for the Rays.  This could be particularly true since two ex-Rays executives are now running other AL rivals — the Red Sox hired former Rays senior VP of baseball operations Chaim Bloom as their new chief baseball officer, while the Astros hired former Rays VP of baseball operations James Click as their new GM in February, after Houston’s firing of Jeff Luhnow as a result of the sign-stealing scandal.

With other organizations trying to ape the Rays’ track record of quality acquisitions at low-cost prices, it leaves Neander and the remaining front office members with more of a challenge in keeping things afloat in Tampa Bay, especially with a roster that could be on the brink of a special season.  It will be interesting to see how the Rays manage the assets of arguably the league’s best farm system in making further additions to this team in July, whether a major trade could take place, or whether the front office will continue this offseason’s pattern of somewhat quieter moves.

How would you grade the Rays’ offseason?  (Link for app users.)

Offseason In Review: Atlanta Braves

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It was a busy offseason for the Braves, the back-to-back National League East champions, but maybe not an ideal one. While the Braves signed nine players to major league contracts, they lost their top free agent, third baseman Josh Donaldson.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

  • None

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Led by general manager Alex Anthopoulos, the Braves made it no secret that they were interested in retaining Donaldson, who flourished in their uniform in 2019 after signing a one-year, $23MM contract. For his part, the 34-year-old Donaldson expressed a desire to remain in Atlanta. Ultimately, though, the two sides couldn’t reach an agreement, leading Donaldson to join the Twins on a four-year, $92MM contract. The Braves reportedly matched the Twins’ offer in years, but they weren’t willing to approach the $92MM mark.

Donaldson and Anthony Rendon, who was never a Braves target, were the best third basemen in free agency, though the market fell off after those two. There were rumors connecting the Braves to the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado and the Cubs’ Kris Bryant, but those players haven’t changed homes to this point. Atlanta could circle back to those two in future trade talks, but as of now, the club appears as if it’ll ride with in-house options to start the season (because of the coronavirus, no one knows when that will occur). Johan Camargo and Austin Riley have been competing for the No. 1 job in recent weeks, but it’s possible the Braves will end up platooning them.

While Camargo was a quality contributor for the Braves two years ago, his production cratered last season. Riley was a top-50 prospect in baseball when the Braves promoted him last May, and with the presence of Donaldson, most of his reps came in the outfield. Although Riley did fare well in the grass, his high-strikeout ways helped prevent him from making a significant impact at the plate as a rookie.

It’s obviously not yet clear who will garner the majority of time at third for the Braves this year. That player will have a hard time replacing Donaldson, and his loss should damage the Braves’ chances of winning the division again. That said, the Braves did work to fill his offensive void during the offseason with the signing of former Marlin and Cardinal outfielder Marcell Ozuna.

Even though he had a qualifying offer from St. Louis weighing him down, it was still a surprise that Ozuna settled for a one-year, $18MM offer, barely edging out the $17.8MM value of the QO. Ozuna’s no Donaldson, but as someone who can typically be counted on for somewhere in the vicinity of three wins above replacement, he looks like a nice short-term addition. With Ozuna in left, superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. in right, Ender Inciarte in center, the re-signed Nick Markakis as an affordable fourth outfielder and Adam Duvall as a No. 5, the Braves seem to be in better shape than most teams in the grass (and don’t forget that exciting prospects Cristian Pache and Drew Waters are looming).

Similarly, despite their uncertainty at third base, the Braves are doing well in the infield. Most clubs would sign up for a first base/second base/shortstop alignment of Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies and Dansby Swanson, after all. They’ll have a bit of a different catching group looking out at them, though. Tyler Flowers, a Brave since 2016, is back for a reasonable salary. He had his worst offensive year as a Brave in 2019, but Flowers is at least a pitch-framing darling on the defensive side. He was joined last year by Brian McCann as the Braves’ duo behind the dish, but McCann retired. The Braves went the free-agency route to replace him, signing former Met and Ray Travis d’Arnaud after the 31-year-old’s solid showing in Tampa Bay last season. For $16MM over two years, it’s a bit of a risky deal for Atlanta – not only has the former top prospect had an up-and-down career in terms of production, but he has had difficulty staying healthy.

The Braves clearly experienced some position player turnover in the offseason, but a large portion of their attention went to their pitching staff. The team’s bullpen was something of a sore spot last season, and Anthopoulos acted early and often to address it over the winter. His biggest move was to strike a three-year, $40MM guarantee with southpaw Will Smith, who’s coming off a pair of great seasons with the Giants. Smith, 30, thrived as San Francisco’s closer a season ago, but the plan for now is for him to set up ex-Giants teammate Mark Melancon in Atlanta. He’ll have company there in, among others, Chris Martin and Darren O’Day – two righties the Braves re-signed for fair value in the offseason. With Smith, Melancon, Martin, O’Day and the righty duo of Shane Greene and Luke Jackson as the Braves’ most prominent relievers, they look to be in pretty good shape for late-game situations.

Meanwhile, there is some uncertainty in the Braves’ rotation, a group that waved goodbye to Dallas Keuchel and Julio Teheran in the offseason. There is no shortage of confidence in Mike Soroka, Max Fried and Mike Foltynewicz (who rebounded after a terrible start in 2019). However, it’s anyone’s guess what the Braves will get from the other two spots in their rotation. They signed longtime stalwart Cole Hamels to a one-year, $18MM pact with the hope that the lefty would provide a stabilizing veteran force this season. It’s entirely possible he will, especially with the delayed start to the season, but shoulder troubles have weighed him down over the past month or so. As of about two weeks ago, Hamels didn’t even have a timeline to return. That’s the risk you run when you pin your hopes on a 36-year-old coming off an injury-shortened campaign; in fairness to the Braves, though, it’s tough to bash them for signing an accomplished, still-effective hurler (when healthy) to a one-year deal.

Assuming the season starts sometime fairly soon, Hamels is all but guaranteed to miss a portion of it. That should leave the Braves with Sean Newcomb and Felix Hernandez as the last two starters in their rotation. The 26-year-old Newcomb is a former well-regarded prospect who – despite a high number of walks – held his own as a starter in 2018. Newcomb then spent most of last season as a reliever, and he also did fine in that role. Meantime, as one of the most successful starters of the past couple decades, Hernandez needs no introduction. The problem is that the longtime Mariner and former Cy Young winner, 33, has floundered over the past few years. Hernandez impressed this spring before the league shut down, and he seems likely to make the Braves’ roster, but you’d be right to be skeptical about a bounce-back effort.

If Newcomb and/or Hernandez don’t provide the answer for the Braves, they do have some other interesting in-house possibilities. To name a few examples, righties Bryse Wilson, Kyle Wright and Touki Toussaint – all still in their lower 20s – were each recent top 100-prospects. No one from that trio has lived up to the billing in the majors yet, but perhaps one, two or even all three of them will emerge this season. If not, the rotation may be an area the Braves look to bolster when the trade deadline comes.

2020 Season Outlook

The Liberty Media-owned Braves are projected to start 2020 with a franchise-record Opening Day payroll of $157MM. It’s money well spent overall, as – despite questions at third and in the rotation – this continues to look like a team capable of challenging just about anyone in the National League. However, it’ll be tougher for the Braves to continue their reign atop the NL East with the defending World Series champion Nationals, the Mets and the Phillies all set to field strong rosters that could push for the top spot in the division.

How do you feel about the Braves’ offseason? (Poll link for app users)

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