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A.J. Pollock

AJ Pollock Will Narrowly Miss Triggering Ability To Opt Out Of Contract

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Dodgers outfielder AJ Pollock is in the midst of one of his best seasons, having posted an excellent .301/.360/.532 batting line with 19 home runs, 27 doubles, a triple and nine stolen bases. That production would position the 33-year-old as one of the best outfielders on the free-agent market this winter, but MLBTR has confirmed that Pollock will fall just a few plate appearances shy of the threshold necessary to trigger an opt-out clause in his deal.

Pollock’s contract, signed in Jan. 2019, was a four-year, $55MM deal that covered the 2019-22 seasons with a player option for a fifth year in 2023. However, the contract also allowed Pollock to opt out of the 2022 season and receive a $5MM buyout if he hit one of two plate appearance milestones: 1450 plate appearances combined from 2019-21 or 1000 combined from 2020-2021.

Last year’s pandemic-shortened season threw a wrench into vesting clauses such as this one, but the league and the players association agreed to prorate plate appearances and innings pitched for the purpose of calculations such as this one. Pollock’s 210 plate appearances last season are thus multiplied by 2.7, meaning they account for 567 plate appearances toward that threshold. (MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored this possibility when Pollock returned from the IL last week.)

Pollock needed 433 plate appearances in 2021 to unlock that right to opt out, but he’s currently at 408 plate appearances with just four games to play. It’s nearly unfathomable that he’d manage to accumulate 25 trips to the plate in a span of four games. As such, it seems that a pair of hamstring strains for Pollock this season — one in his left leg in May and another in his right leg earlier this month — will cost him the opportunity to return to the open market in advance of his age-34 season.

Pollock will now be under contract for the 2022 season on a $10MM salary, after which he’ll have a $10MM player option or a $5MM buyout. To that extent, he’ll still control his own fate next offseason, but he’ll be doing so when he’s a year older and potentially coming off a weaker performance at the plate. Pollock’s contract does allow him to boost the value of that $10MM option as well; it’d increase by $1MM for reaching each of 400, 450, 500, 550 and 600 plate appearances next season.

Dodgers Designate Shane Greene For Assignment

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The Dodgers have designated right-hander Shane Greene for assignment in order to open a spot on the roster for AJ Pollock, who is returning from the 10-day injured list, per a club announcement.

Greene, 32, sat out until May this season before returning to the Braves on a one-year deal. The Atlanta reunion didn’t go well, however, as the former setup man struggled to the tune of 16 runs allowed in 17 innings (8.47 ERA) before being cut loose. Greene quickly latched on with the Dodgers, and while things went a bit better in nine games, there were still some red flags. Greene allowed only three runs in 6 2/3 innings (4.05 ERA), but he also walked five batters and hit three more.

Command hasn’t typically been a major issue for Greene, who entered the season with a career 8.3 percent walk rate. However, it’s clearly been an Achilles heel this year as he’s walked 12.4 percent of his opponents and plunked 3.5 percent of them. Couple that with the fact that a heater which once averaged 95.9 mph (2017) is now clocking in at a career-low average of 93.1 mph, and it’s perhaps not entirely surprising to see Green struggling at previously unforeseen levels.

The Dodgers will now place Greene on outright waivers or release waivers within the next few days. Greene has the service time to reject an outright assignment anyhow, so this seems likely to end his time with the club. Given the limited number of days remaining on the regular-season calendar, it could also spell the end of Greene’s 2021 season. He’ll be a free agent again this offseason and perhaps look for an earlier deal so as to allow himself a full Spring Training this time around. He’ll likely have to settle for a minor league pact, but given Greene’s track record, there should be several clubs willing to take that flier on him.

Dodgers Place Cody Bellinger On Injured List, Expected To Activate A.J. Pollock On Thursday

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The Dodgers announced they’ve placed outfielder Cody Bellinger on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to September 18, due to a left rib fracture. Luke Raley has been recalled from Triple-A Oklahoma City to take his place on the active roster. In better news, manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic) the club anticipates reinstating fellow outfielder AJ Pollock from the IL before Thursday’s game against the Rockies.

While Bellinger’s rib fracture diagnosis sounds alarming, it doesn’t seem the club expects him to miss too much time. He hasn’t played since last Friday, but he was in tonight’s initial starting lineup before being scratched because of continued soreness. That setback will keep him out of action for at least the next week, but it’s seemingly possible he’ll be back on the field before the regular season is through.

The injury is the latest development in a season that has been an unequivocal disaster for Bellinger. He’d already been on the IL twice this season with leg issues, and he hasn’t produced anywhere near his capabilities even when healthy enough to play. Over 337 plate appearances, Bellinger is hitting .159/.237/.291 with just nine home runs. He’s striking out at an alarming 26.1% rate and has managed just a .188 batting average on balls in play. Of the 242 hitters with 300+ plate appearances, only Jackie Bradley Jr. has a worse park-adjusted hitting line than Bellinger by measure of wRC+.

It’s been a shockingly poor season for the 26-year-old, who’s just two years removed from winning National League MVP honors. Bellinger couldn’t replicate that year’s massive .305/.406/.629 showing in last season’s truncated schedule, but his .239/.333/.455 mark in 2020 was still far better than this year’s performance.

Bellinger’s massive struggles set the stage for some interesting decisions for the Dodgers’ front office. Assuming he’s able to make it back from his injury in time for the postseason, they’ll need to decide whether to carry him on the playoff roster. That still seems likely, given his left-handed pop and continued plus defense in center field. But it could be difficult to find a ton of playing time for Bellinger on a loaded Los Angeles roster this postseason.

The front office’s confidence in a Bellinger bounceback will also be gauged this winter. Last offseason, he and the Dodgers agreed to a $16.1MM deal to avoid arbitration. He’s slated to go through that process twice more and will likely be due a small raise next winter. (Arbitration salaries are designed to escalate year-over-year, so Bellinger’s salary wouldn’t decline even in spite of his poor performance). At his best, Bellinger’s obviously worth far more than even that significant tally. But he’s a .192/.278/.359 hitter over 580 trips to the plate in the past two seasons, and the Dodgers certainly wouldn’t want to commit that level of outlay if they believe that to be more reflective of his current talent level than his 2017-19 peak is.

A Bellinger non-tender or trade still seems unlikely, given the Dodgers’ immense spending levels and his not too distant MVP season. But the Dodgers should still have plenty of outfield options in coming years, even if Chris Taylor departs in free agency. Mookie Betts is obviously set to play everyday, and Pollock now looks likely to be back next season because of the injury from which he’s now returning.

Pollock’s free agent deal with the Dodgers contained a vesting option that could’ve allowed him to opt out at the end of this season. To do so, he’d have needed to tally 1000 plate appearances between 2020 and 2021. For vesting option purposes, last season’s tallies were multiplied by 2.7 to prorate them over the course of a full season. Pollock picked up 210 plate appearances last year, translating to 567 after prorating. That left him in need of 433 trips to the plate this season to pick up the right to test free agency.

A few weeks ago, Pollock looked well on his way to reaching that threshold. The 33-year-old suffered a hamstring strain on September 4, though, keeping him out for almost three full weeks. He’s been stuck on 386 plate appearances since suffering that injury, meaning he needs 47 more over the course of the season to trigger the potential opt out. By Thursday, the Dodgers will have just ten games remaining in the regular season. Pollock would need to play in all ten and average 4.7 plate appearances per game to reach the option threshold (assuming he and the team haven’t modified the clause in the wake of his recent injury). While not completely impossible, it seems unlikely he’d get that much playing time over the season’s final week and a half.

That’d guarantee Pollock returns next season on a $10MM salary, an eminently affordable price for the Dodgers given his quality production. While the former Diamondback’s tenure in L.A. started slow, he’s been very effective over the past couple seasons. Going back to the beginning of 2020, Pollock is hitting .289/.339/.529 with 32 homers and 34 doubles in essentially the equivalent of one full season’s worth of playing time. He’d come out of this year’s All-Star Break scorching hot, with a .329/.379/.497 showing in the second half before his injury.

Pollock’s forthcoming return will be a welcome addition to a Dodger team hoping to avoid the Wild Card game. They’ve continued to hover just behind the league-best Giants in the NL West, entering play tonight one game back. Los Angeles closes out their season with series against the Rockies, Diamondbacks, Padres and Brewers, while the Giants will take on San Diego, Colorado and Arizona before facing the Padres again to close out the season.

Dodgers Place AJ Pollock On 10-Day Injured List

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4:06PM: The Dodgers officially placed Pollock on the 10-day injured list.  Right-hander Mitch White was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move.

TODAY, 1:15AM: Pollock has a Grade 2 strain, and will miss “two, three weeks at a bare minimum,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told The Orange County Register’s Bill Plunkett and other reporters.

SEPTEMBER 4: Dodgers outfielder AJ Pollock left tonight’s game with what the team described as a right hamstring strain.  Pollock hurt himself while trying to steal third base in the top of the first inning, as he was limping off the field following the play.

The fact that Pollock’s injury has already been diagnosed as a strain would seem to imply that he’ll require a trip to the injured list.  The next step will be learning the severity, as anything more than a minor strain could potentially cause Pollock to miss most or even all of the Dodgers’ remaining regular-season games (and into the postseason).  Pollock missed just shy of three weeks with a strain to his left hamstring earlier in the season.

Perhaps a little overshadowed by the many big names on the Dodgers’ roster, Pollock has rather quietly been a key cog in the L.A. lineup.  He entered tonight’s game hitting .295/.351/.504 with 16 homers over 385 plate appearances, with plenty of hard contact backing up his 131 OPS+/wRC+.  Playing mostly left field, Pollock has also been a solid defensive force, with +3 Defensive Runs Saved and +1 Outs Above Average (though the UZR/150 metric has a -2.0 score on his glovework).

Should Pollock indeed be heading back to the IL, Los Angeles can turn to a combination of Zach McKinstry, Billy McKinney, or (down at Triple-A) Matt Beaty to handle left field duty, or utilityman Chris Taylor could simply assume the everyday role.  Taylor has already been seeing more regular work in center field, however, as the struggling Cody Bellinger hasn’t been playing against left-handed pitching.  In short, the Dodgers’ depth will be tested yet again, which isn’t optimal for a team fighting hard with the Giants for first place in the NL West.

Dodgers To Place AJ Pollock On 10-Day IL

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5:08PM: Roberts confirmed Pollock was headed to the IL, telling reporters (including J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group) that Pollock will miss “a couple weeks minimum.”  Right-hander Edwin Uceta is being called up to take Pollock’s spot on the 26-man roster.

8:18AM: Dodgers outfielder AJ Pollock exited their win over the Marlins on Friday with a left hamstring strain, the team announced. He’ll likely require a stint on the 10-day injured list, manager Dave Roberts told Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic and other reporters.

Pollock has dealt with a laundry list of injuries throughout his career, though he has largely stayed healthy since missing a significant chunk of the 2019 season because of elbow surgery. He appeared in 55 of the Dodgers’ 60 regular-season games in 2020 and has played in 32 of their 38 contests this year.

As was the case last season, Pollock has put up easily above-average offensive numbers in 2021. Through 102 trips to the plate, Pollock has batted .277/.333/.457 (117 wRC+) with four home runs and a pair of stolen bases. On the defensive side, the 33-year-old has seen time in left field and center (almost exclusively the former).

If Pollock does go on the IL, he’ll join fellow outfielders Cody Bellinger and Zach McKinstry on the shelf. Both Bellinger and McKinstry have been out since April, but they’re close to embarking on rehab assignments, per Juan Toribio of MLB.com.

Market Chatter: Dodgers, Castellanos, Didi

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With the Winter Meetings upon us, let’s round up the latest chatter on the market to start the morning …

  • The Dodgers could play a fascinating role in the proceedings. As the L.A. front office works on major potential free agent moves, it’s also dabbling in the trade market involving some existing pieces. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter that the club is open to discussing trade scenarios involving A.J. Pollock and Enrique Hernandez, along with the previously rumored Joc Pederson. Pollock just finished the first season of a complicated free agent contract, while Hernandez and Pederson each project to earn significant arbitration salaries in their final seasons of eligibility. MLBTR’s Connor Byrne recently broke down a potentially complicated offseason for the seven-time defending NL West champs.
  • Outfielder Nicholas Castellanos may be down a suitor, but the news seems to be good. The Marlins are “out of the bidding,” according to Jim Bowden of The Athletic (via Twitter), owing to the fact that the auction ask has “sky rocketed” in the wake of the surprisingly lofty Mike Moustakas deal. Castellanos has always seemed a tricky player to predict. The youthful, bat-first performer might in past years have been a candidate for a top-of-the-market contract. But recent trends have not favored defensively marginal sluggers. We guessed he’d get four years and $58MM; now that Moustakas has topped that guarantee, perhaps Castellanos can be expected to go higher. His market still appears to be taking shape but could conceivably come together quickly over the next few days.
  • Free agent shortstop Didi Gregorius appears “likely” to secure a significant, multi-year deal, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Heyman hears that Gregorius could land an average annual value of $14MM to $15MM — which is just what we predicted he’d get (over three years) in our top-50 free agent ranking. It’s still unclear where Gregorius will land. Heyman suggests that the bidding may go too high for the Reds, possibly leaving the Phillies and unknown others to pursue the veteran infielder.

Angels Acquire Adam McCreery, Josh Thole From Dodgers

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The Angels have added a pair of players out of the break, acquiring lefty Adam McCreery and catcher Josh Thole from the Dodgers in exchange for cash considerations.

The move will help bolster the Halos’ depth. It’ll also clear needed 40-man roster space for their cross-town rivals. The Dodgers activated outfielder A.J. Pollock today from the 60-day injured list. He’ll be joined by Corey Seager and David Freese in returning to the active roster.

Acquired last November, McCreery had yet to appear at the MLB level with the Dodgers but did hold a 40-man spot. In 35 2/3 upper-minors innings this season, he carries a 4.04 ERA with 9.8 K/9 and 5.8 BB/9. The southpaw briefly cracked the majors last year with Atlanta but has yet to receive a full opportunity — due in no small part to the fact that he has not yet conquered persistent walk problems.

The 30-year-old Thole was once a consistent presence in the majors, functioning mostly as a reserve backstop with the Mets and Blue Jays from 2009 through 2016. He hasn’t cracked the bigs since, however, and has mostly carried marginal offensive numbers at Triple-A that befit his lifetime .242/.313/.306 slash through 1,499 plate appearances at the game’s highest level.

Dodgers To Activate Corey Seager, A.J. Pollock On Friday

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Already in possession of the majors’ best record, the 60-32 Dodgers will get a pair of familiar reinforcements back when the second half of the season begins. Shortstop Corey Seager and center fielder A.J. Pollock will return from the injured list Friday, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register tweets.

Seager suffered a serious left hamstring strain June 12, guaranteeing him a second straight injury-marred season. The 25-year-old missed most of 2018 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in May, but Seager impressed in his return this season prior to his IL stint. So far, the former NL Rookie of the Year has slashed .278/.359/.468 (119 wRC+) with eight home runs and 2.0 fWAR in 270 plate appearances.

Seager was truly heating up in the days before his injury, making his absence that much more unfortunate for him and the Dodgers. But the depth-laden team more than weathered Seager’s injury, as it’s known to do when key players go down. Seager’s primary replacement, Chris Taylor, helped keep the train rolling over the past few weeks.

Taylor has also seen some action at center fielder in place of Pollock, who hasn’t played since April 28 because of surgery on his troublesome right elbow. It was rookie Alex Verdugo who saw the lion’s share of time in center when Pollock was out, though. Verdugo, like many other Dodgers, has turned in praiseworthy production this season. Pollock has been one of the few exceptions, which isn’t what Los Angeles expected when it signed him to a $60MM guarantee in free agency. The oft-injured 31-year-old – perhaps owing in part to his elbow problems – hit a meek .223/.287/.330 (64 wRC+) with two HRs across 115 PA before going under the knife.

Despite his struggles earlier this year, Pollock’s track record indicates he’ll give the Dodgers no fewer than five starting-caliber outfielders upon his return. They already have Verdugo, NL MVP candidate Cody Bellinger and Joc Pederson in leading roles, while the versatile Taylor can also handle himself in the grass.

Injury Notes: Stroman, Pollock, Wood, Peralta, Reed, Gennett

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The latest on some injury situations from around baseball….

  • Marcus Stroman was originally scheduled to start for the Blue Jays against the Red Sox tonight, but the team has opted to instead use Derek Law as an opener and Thomas Pannone as a bulk pitcher.  Stroman left his last outing with a left pectoral cramp, and the Jays will delay his next start by at least one day, though “there’s a chance that he won’t pitch until after the All-Star break,” manager Charlie Montoyo told media (including MLB.com’s Alexis Brudnicki.  “He’s still the same way, day to day,” Montoyo said.  “But again, if he’s not 100 percent, we’re not going to pitch him….If he plays catch today and feels like he could throw a bullpen or something nice and easy, that he could go, then we’ll pitch him.”  Stroman’s injury isn’t thought to be serious, though the Blue Jays are being as cautious as possible with their ace, particularly given his status as one of the game’s top trade deadline candidates.
  • A.J. Pollock is beginning his minor league rehab assignment tonight with the Dodgers’ high-A affiliate in Rancho Cucamonga, as per the team’s Twitter feed.  Pollock has been out of action since late April, when a staph infection in his right elbow led to surgery to remove metalwork in that elbow from a previous procedure in 2016.  The outfielder had managed only a .223/.287/.330 slash line over his first 115 plate appearances as a Dodger before hitting the IL, and is hopeful of returning to the Los Angeles roster after the All-Star break.
  • Reds manager David Bell provided updates on several injured members of the Cincinnati roster in his pregame meeting with reporters, including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer.  Alex Wood is slated to begin a rehab assignment this week, as the lefty will pitch for the first time this season after being beset with back problems since Spring Training.  Wandy Peralta (hip) may need a minor league rehab game or two, though he had a bullpen session today and is pretty close to a return.  Cody Reed (knee strain) is back “throwing” since hitting the IL in late May, Bell said, though “he’s probably still a couple of weeks away from pitching.”
  • There has also been “no talk of IL at this point” about Scooter Gennett, Bell said, after Gennett left Wednesday’s game with tightness in his left groin.  Gennett didn’t play today, as Bell decided to give the veteran two full days of rest since the Reds have an off-day on Friday.  Gennett only recently returned from a right groin strain that had sidelined him since March 22.

West Notes: Astros, Martin, Rangers, Crouse, Dodgers, Lamet

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Astros right-hander Corbin Martin, who suffered a “potentially serious” elbow injury while pitching in Triple-A, will receive a second opinion “early next week,” according to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. Rome adds that Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow doesn’t expect Martin to pitch “any time soon,” which certainly is not a promising indicator for the club, though there’s no timetable as of yet. Martin, regarded as baseball’s 48th-best prospect according to MLB.com, debuted earlier this season and enjoyed an impressive debut outing, though he wasn’t able to find much success after that, leading to his demotion to the minors. With Brad Peacock on the injured list and Martin, Framber Valdez, and Collin McHugh all disappointing in their auditions for the final spot in the starting rotation, the scuffling Astros will have to look elsewhere for starting pitching options.

Here’s the latest news from out West…

  • Following the season, Rangers prospect Hans Crouse will undergo surgery to remove bone spurs in his elbow, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. However, Grant adds, Crouse will continue to pitch at the Class-A level. Crouse, just 20 years old, is ranked as the Rangers’ best prospect and tabbed by MLB.com as the 63rd-best across baseball. A glance at his minor-league numbers suggest that Crouse has performed just fine despite the injury, but it’s certainly a situation worth monitoring for a promising young starter.
  • A couple of injured Dodgers are progressing in their recoveries, reports the Orange County Register’s Bill Plunkett on Twitter. David Freese and A.J. Pollock will each take live batting practice today, with Corey Seager a possibility to join them. Per Plunkett, Freese should rejoin the team this week, with Seager and Pollock due to start rehab assignments in the near future. Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times adds (via Twitter) that Pollock is aiming for a return immediately following the All-Star break.
  • Padres starter Dinelson Lamet is slated to make his long-awaited return to the team in the coming days, writes Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune. The right-hander hasn’t pitched in the Majors since 2017, when he flashed tantalizing stuff in his debut season and subsequently missed the entire 2018 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He has made six rehab starts this season—three in Single-A ball and three at Triple-A—throwing as many as 85 pitches, a mark that should govern his workload for the Padres down the stretch. The dynamic 26-year-old would boost the Padres rotation, which could be doubly important as Chris Paddack, the team’s best starter, faces questions about his workload.
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