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A.J. Pollock

Giants Release AJ Pollock

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4:30pm: The Giants have now made it official, announcing Pollock’s release. His 40-man roster spot will go to right-hander John Brebbia, who has been reinstated from the 60-day IL, with righty Tristan Beck optioned to open an active roster spot for Brebbia.

7:39am: The Giants are releasing AJ Pollock, per a report by MLBNetwork’s Jon Morosi last night. The 35-year-old veteran has been on the injured list with a strained oblique for just under a month but began a rehab assignment at Triple-A last week, going 1-for-6 with a double, a walk and three strikeouts.

Pollock joined the Giants just before this year’s trade deadline in a fairly minor deal with the Mariners that also saw San Francisco acquire utility player Mark Mathias. San Francisco acquired him in hopes of improving the club’s offense against lefties, thanks to his career .836 OPS against lefties and a .286/.316/.619 slash line in 133 plate appearances when facing southpaws last year. That didn’t come to pass, however, as he ultimately suited up for the club in just five big league games, striking out two times in six at-bats without recording a hit or walk.

The brief stint in San Francisco was a continuation of what has been nothing short of a brutal year for Pollock at the plate. Since signing a one-year, $7MM deal with the Mariners this past offseason, Pollock has slashed a unsightly .165/.215/.305 in 144 trips to the plate this year. Pollock’s 22.2% strikeout rate is a career high, and while his awful .227 wOBA is much lower than his xwOBA, his rough contact quality numbers leave the expected figure at a still well-below par .267.

While Pollock began to decline somewhat with the White Sox last year, posting the first below-average offensive season of his career (aside from an injury-marred 2016 season in which he only suited up for 12 games with the Diamondbacks) since he became a full time player in 2013, his drop off in production this year has been staggering. After all, it was just two seasons ago that Pollock was posting excellent numbers with the Dodgers, slashing .297/.355/.536 with a wRC+ of 137.

As for the Giants, the club still has a pair of right-handed hitting outfielders on the roster in Mitch Haniger and Austin Slater, along with a pair of youngsters at Triple-A on the 40-man roster in Luis Matos and Heliot Ramos. San Francisco will have to put Pollock through release waivers, though he’ll surely go unclaimed between his performance, expiring and pricey contract, and the fact that he would be ineligible to participate in the postseason for the hypothetical-claiming club. Upon clearing release waivers, Pollock would become a free agent and be free to sign with any of the 30 clubs with an eye toward the 2024 campaign, though the veteran outfielder will likely have to settle for a minor league deal after this year’s performance.

Giants Acquire AJ Pollock, Mark Mathias From Mariners

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The Giants announced they’ve acquired outfielder AJ Pollock, utility player Mark Mathias and cash considerations from the Mariners. Seattle receives a player to be named later or cash in return. San Francisco optioned Mathias to Triple-A, placed Mike Yastrzemski on the 10-day injured list, and transferred right-hander John Brebbia to the 60-day injured list in corresponding moves.

Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweeted this afternoon that San Francisco was among the teams looking for right-handed hitting. They add a pair of righty bats in this trade, although neither is necessarily a surefire offensive upgrade.

Mathias, whom the Mariners acquired off waivers from the Pirates earlier this month, departs the organization without ever joining the big league roster. The 28 year old offers experience all around the diamond, though he has primarily played second and third base throughout his career. Initially drafted by Cleveland in the third round of the 2015 draft, Mathias has bounced around the league since making his big league debut with Milwaukee in 2020, with stints in Pittsburgh and Texas over the past calendar year.

In 68 career games at the big league level, Mathias’s .249/.323/.402 slash line is good for a slightly above average wRC+ of 104, though that overall line is primarily carried by an excellent 24-game stretch with the Rangers where he slashed a whopping .277/.365/.554 in 74 trips to the plate. While the journeyman has yet to stick in the big leagues for a significant period of time, that hot stretch in Texas and a career slash line of .289/.383/.458 at the Triple-A level indicate Mathias has the potential to be a useful big league utility piece.

The veteran Pollock, 35, has struggled considerably to this point in the season, slashing a brutal .173/.225/.323 in 138 plate appearances. He’ll provide the Giants with outfield depth as they look to weather injuries to Mitch Haniger and Yastrzemski, the latter of whom is expected to miss a couple weeks with a left hamstring strain.

Pollock had mashed left-handed pitching as recently as a season ago. He provides an outfield rotation option and experienced clubhouse presence alongside the presumptive starting group of Michael Conforto, Luis Matos, and Austin Slater, at least while Yastrzemski gets healthy.

The Mariners continue to move some short-term players following this afternoon’s trade of closer Paul Sewald to Arizona. The player to be named headed back to Seattle figures to be a relatively minor piece. Of greater import is that San Francisco might be taking on some of Pollock’s $7MM salary. The precise amount of the cash being sent from Seattle to the Giants remains unreported. Pollock is owed around $2.33MM through season’s end, at which point he’ll be a free agent.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Giants were finalizing a deal for Pollock and Mathias. Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reported the M’s could receive a player to be named later.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

AL West Notes: Mariners, Rendon, Neto, Alvarez

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The Mariners placed outfielder AJ Pollock on the 10-day IL earlier today, with outfielder Taylor Trammell taking his place on the active roster. While Pollock has struggled to a wRC+ of just 51 in 138 plate appearances with Seattle this season, Pollock’s injury further exacerbates an outfield situation that has quickly become a problem for the club. Julio Rodriguez and Teoscar Hernandez are both locked into starting spots in center and right field, respectively, but the absences of Pollock and Jarred Kelenic leave the club scrambling for options to fill out the rest of the club’s outfield mix. First baseman Mike Ford has taken over DH duties on a nearly full-time basis over the past month, while left field is set to be filled by a mix of depth options like Trammell, Dylan Moore, and Cade Marlowe.

To make matters worse for the Mariners, Adam Jude of The Seattle Times relays that, according to manager Scott Servais, Kelenic isn’t expected back until early September. He’ll spend the next 4-6 weeks in a walking boot after kicking a water cooler out of frustration following a ninth-inning strikeout. The incident left Kelenic with a fractured left foot. With so few options available to cover for Kelenic in left field, the Mariners seem poised to look into adding an outfielder ahead of the trade deadline on August 1. The club has previously been connected to Mark Canha of the Mets, though Tommy Pham, Cody Bellinger, and Lane Thomas are other outfielders who could potentially move prior to the deadline.

More from the AL West…

  • Angels third baseman Anthony Rendon recently underwent an MRI that revealed a deep bone bruise in his shin, as noted by Doug Padilla of the Orange County Register. Rendon has been out since the beginning of the month with a shin contusion, though the injury is more serious than initially believed. Manager Phil Nevin explained the situation to reporters (including Padilla), saying that “There’s some significant bleeding inside the bone. This is more significant than we actually thought… We’re going to have to calm him down for a little while.” Nevin didn’t offer a new timetable for return, though MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger indicates that Rendon will be shut down for at least two more weeks.
  • Sticking with the Angels, shortstop Zach Neto was scratched from today’s game against the Pirates due to lower back tightness, per Padilla. Andrew Velazquez replaced Neto in the lineup at shortstop today. Padilla noted that Neto was willing to play through the discomfort, but the Angels decided to act cautiously and rest him. Padilla adds that the club is considering sitting him again for tomorrow’s game in order to give him a three day period to rest in conjunction with Monday’s off-day, though Bollinger adds that the club is hoping the issue is minor enough he’ll be back in the lineup tomorrow, per Nevin. The club’s first round pick in last year’s draft, Neto has impressed by not only advancing to the majors in his first professional season but providing solid production with a 110 wRC+ combined with strong defense at shortstop.
  • Slugger Yordan Alvarez appears to be nearing a return to the Astros, as he has begun a rehab assignment with the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Sugar Land. Alvarez was expected to begin his rehab assignment last week, but did not appear in a game at Triple-A until this past Wednesday. He’s now appeared in three rehab games, and while it’s unclear when he’ll return to the big league club, his upcoming return is sure to boost the club’s lineup. While he’s been limited to just 57 games this season due to injuries, Alvarez has slashed an incredible .277/.388/.589 with a wRC+ of 167. With Alvarez on the shelf, Corey Julks has been the club’s primary DH in recent weeks.

Jerry Dipoto Discusses Mariners’ Deadline Approach

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The Mariners pulled back to .500 this afternoon, blanking the Twins to get to 48-48. They’re still in fourth place in the AL West, 9 1/2 games behind the division-leading Rangers. They’re five games out of the final Wild Card spot pending Houston’s night contest in Oakland.

With the club hovering around average all season, the front office finds itself in a borderline position approaching the August 1 trade deadline. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto suggested the team was taking a flexible approach in a chat with Mike Salk this morning during his weekly appearance on 710 AM ESPN in Seattle.

Dipoto conceded the M’s have “not really separated ourselves in a meaningful way to be aggressive on the buying end.” While he left open the potential for short-term additions, he noted they’ll use the next 11 days to evaluate if it’s “better to make a push for the ’23 season or to better situate ourselves for ’24.”

In any event, it doesn’t seem the Mariners are preparing to play at the top of the rental market. “Last year, we were very aggressive in the trade market for what I would call the big fish and we were able to land Luis Castillo,” Dipoto said. “This year, we’re probably not going to be in that market. We’re going to be more in the margins market, trying to find a way that we can get a little bit better in ’23 and better situate ourselves for ’24.”

It’s possible that could involve moving a shorter-term veteran off the MLB roster in a deal for controllable talent. Asked by Salk whether selling is off the table, Dipoto replied, “No, and it never has been. … We are always one foot in the camp of buyer and one foot in the camp of seller, believing that the best way to approach any trade deadline is with the mindset of ’how do we make the Mariners better?’”

That’s not an uncommon approach for executives whose teams are on the periphery of contention. The Red Sox and Brewers attempted (unsuccessfully) to thread that needle last summer, dealing veterans with dwindling control windows while bringing back more controllable upper level talent. As Dipoto pointed out, the Mariners have found themselves in a similar position — most notably in 2021, when Seattle traded impending free agent reliever Kendall Graveman to the Astros for infielder Abraham Toro while Houston was narrowly ahead of the Mariners in the standings.

While Dipoto’s comments leave open the possibility of parting with veteran players, they’re not about to kick off a rebuild. The baseball operations leader expressed confidence in a core centered around the likes of Julio Rodríguez, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, J.P. Crawford, Bryan Woo and Castillo.

Dipoto attributed the club’s middling performance in large part to a lack of depth, particularly in the lineup. “We’re about an average major league offense by most advanced metrics. We need to find a way to be better than average,” he said. “In order to do that, we can tap into a lot of different avenues. Some of it is going to come from our system; some of it is going to come from outside. It has to, and maybe that starts now.”

It’s hard to argue with that characterization. Seattle entered play Thursday ranked 18th in runs. They’re 25th with a .310 on-base percentage and 24th with a .388 slugging mark, though that’s partially a product of a tough home hitting environment. By measure of wRC+, which accounts for ballpark, the M’s have been one percentage point worse than a league average offense.

Conceding that “we don’t have a next wave of bats at Triple-A ready to come and push us over that edge,” Dipoto suggested that building out the lineup depth will be a priority. He took responsibility for the club’s current struggles in that regard. While Dipoto predictably didn’t single out any players, none of Seattle’s top three offseason acquisitions has performed up to expectations.

Teoscar Hernández is hitting .243/.296/.428 across 399 plate appearances. That’s serviceable but certainly not what the M’s had in mind when they sent reliever Erik Swanson and pitching prospect Adam Macko to Toronto in November. Hernández had been an impact bat for the Blue Jays from 2020-22, combining for a .283/.333/.519 line.

Kolten Wong and AJ Pollock, on the other hand, haven’t found any success in 2023. The former is hitting .158/.240/.211 in 58 games after an offseason trade that sent Jesse Winker to Milwaukee. He has lost the starting second base job to José Caballero as a result. Pollock is hitting .169/.222/.315 since signing a $7MM free agent contract to add some right-handed pop to the outfield.

Seattle won’t be able to drum up much interest in either of the latter two players. If they seriously consider moving short-term veterans, though, Hernández should still be on the radar for clubs looking for offensive help. The M’s wouldn’t recoup the kind of value they surrendered to get him, of course, but his pre-2023 track record could make him an appealing change-of-scenery target.

Hernández is playing this season on a $14MM arbitration salary. He’ll be a free agent at season’s end. A couple months ago, he looked like a lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer. That’s no longer an obvious decision, at least raising the possibility of Seattle getting no compensation if they hold him past the deadline and he departs in free agency.

Seattle’s only other impending free agent is backup catcher Tom Murphy. He’s affordable ($1.625MM arb salary) and mashing at a .275/.330/.539 clip in a limited role. As a rental backup catcher, he wouldn’t bring back a major return, but the M’s shouldn’t have a problem finding a trade partner if they were to put him on the market.

Reliever Paul Sewald could be Seattle’s most appealing realistic trade chip. The righty owns a 3.03 ERA with a massive 37.7% strikeout rate over 38 2/3 innings. He has been excellent in all three of his seasons in the Pacific Northwest.

Sewald is eligible for arbitration for one more year, so the Mariners would hold firm to a huge asking price if they made him available at all. Dealing him would probably be their best chance to get an upper level bat with an extended window of team control, assuming they’re not interested in dealing any of their prized young starting pitching.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Mets’ Catching Conundrum, Mariners, Diamondbacks

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Episode 8 of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Simon Hampton is joined by Will Sammon of The Athletic to discuss:

  • The Mets’ start to the season (1:44)
  • What they’ll do with Francisco Alvarez and Gary Sanchez once Tomas Nido and Omar Narvaez return from the IL (5:31)
  • Where they could look to improve at the trade deadline (10:18)
  • The mood in their clubhouse as they overcome a slow start to the season (14:24)

Then, Simon is joined by Darragh McDonald of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

  • What’s going on with the Mariners lineup, and could they move on from Kolten Wong and AJ Pollock? (19:41)
  • Can the Marlins maintain their solid start to the season, and would they consider buying at the deadline? (24:54)
  • What makes the Diamondbacks such a strong team this year? (29:25)

Check out our past episodes!

  • The Cardinals’ U-Turn on Willson Contreras, Mitch Keller’s breakout, and the state of the Padres – listen here
  • Willson Contreras, the Rays’ success, what’s happening with the Astros – listen here
  • White Sox trade candidates, Red Sox options for improvements, managers on the hot seat – listen here

Mariners Sign AJ Pollock

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The Mariners added a right-handed bat to their outfield mix Thursday, formally announcing their previously reported one-year signing of veteran AJ Pollock.  The Excel Sports Management client will be guaranteed $7MM on the deal and can earn an additional $3MM via incentives.

The Twins and Rangers were also known to have interest in Pollock, whose entry into the offseason market was at least somewhat unexpected.  Pollock batted a disappointing .245/.292/.389 over 527 plate appearances with the White Sox in 2022, yet he still opted to decline his $13MM player option for the 2023 season.  That option contained a hefty $5MM buyout, so between that money and the $7MM salary Pollock is receiving on his new deal with Seattle, the 35-year-old’s opt-out decision left $1MM in guaranteed money on the table.  With enough playing time to reach his contract’s incentives, however, he could match or even surpass that sum.

Pollock catches on with an intriguing Mariners team that reached the ALDS last season and is hopeful of taking more steps forward into World Series contention.  Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto is no stranger to Pollock, as Dipoto was working in the Diamondbacks’ front office when Arizona drafted Pollock with the 17th overall pick of the 2009 draft.

With center fielder Julio Rodriguez established as the bedrock of the Seattle outfield, the M’s have spent a lot of their offseason business on reinforcing and sorting out the corner outfield positions.  Mitch Haniger departed in free agency and Kyle Lewis and Jesse Winker were traded, while the Mariners acquired Teoscar Hernandez from the Blue Jays to act as the new everyday right fielder (and probable part-time DH).  Signing Pollock puts another right-handed bat into left field, with Jarred Kelenic and Taylor Trammell adding left-handed depth as platoon partners for Pollock or as bench options.

Some level of platoon shielding might be necessary given how Pollock’s numbers against right-handed pitching drastically fell off in 2022.  Always a solid bat against righty pitching in the past, Pollock hit only .231/.284/.309 over 394 plate appearances against righties last year.  This was the root of Pollock’s offensive struggles, as he continued to mash lefties to the tune of a .286/.316/.619 slash line and 11 homers over 133 trips to the plate.

In terms of overall Statcast metrics, Pollock’s 2022 performance didn’t differ all that greatly from previous seasons, though his hard-contract rate took a notable drop from 2021.  His speed and baserunning also took a hit, perhaps due to hamstring injuries in each of the last two seasons.  The biggest issue was a lack of power, as after posting a .227 Isolated Power number from 2017-21, Pollock dropped to only .143 in 2022.

Playing at spacious T-Mobile Park might not help Pollock regain all of that power stroke, though there are some reasons the Mariners can be hopeful about a rebound.  If Pollock is “only” a lefty-masher again, the M’s theoretically have enough left-handed outfield candidates to pick up the slack.  Moving back from less than a full-time role might be helpful for Pollock, as his 138 games played last season represented the second-highest total of his 11 MLB seasons — it could be that staying relatively healthy last year actually hampered Pollock or wore him down to some extent.  A normal offseason and Spring Training routine heading into 2023 would be just what the 35-year-old needs to produce a bounce-back year.

Just yesterday on MLBTR, Steve Adams wrote about the Mariners’ search for a right-handed hitting outfielder, and the broader sense that the M’s were having a strangely quiet offseason for a team that seemed poised to make some splashy final touches to a contender.  Adding Pollock for $7MM won’t quell speculation that ownership isn’t stretching the budget as much as expected, and yet the signing can also be viewed as a relatively inexpensive but smart investment.  Pollock was posting big numbers as recently as 2021, he has been a solid performer for most of his career, and he brings some more veteran experience and championship pedigree (Pollock was a big part of the Dodgers’ 2020 title team) to the young Mariners.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the agreement and the base terms (Twitter link). USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the additional incentives.

Rangers Interested In Bryan Reynolds

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Bryan Reynolds has been the subject of trade rumors for quite some time, given that he’s been a strong performer on a rebuilding Pirates club. Plenty of teams around the league have reportedly expressed an interest in his services, including the Yankees, Blue Jays, Marlins, Red Sox, Braves, Rockies and Mariners. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic adds the Rangers to the list, reporting that acquiring Reynolds is one avenue they’re considering in their pursuit of outfield upgrades.

The interest of the Rangers, and all the other clubs, is perfectly understandable given how Reynolds has performed thus far in his career. He debuted in 2019, hitting 16 home runs and batting .314/.377/.503 for a wRC+ of 130. He struggled badly in the shortened 2020 season but was back in form over the past two campaigns. Over 2021 and 2022, he hit 51 homers and stole 12 bases while walking in 10.4% of his plate appearances and striking out in just 20.6% of them. He produced a slash line of .282/.368/.492 over those campaigns for a wRC+ of 133, indicating he was 33% better than the league average hitter. That mark put him in the top 25 among all qualified hitters in that stretch, as was his 9.0 wins above replacement from FanGraphs.

Despite the high amount of interest around the league, the Bucs have yet to put a deal together with many sources highlighting their asking price as being very high. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports on the Reynolds matter today and reiterates that framing, with one source characterizing Pittsburgh’s asks as “unrealistic.” Despite the apparently sky high asking prices, Heyman reports that the Yankees are one of the teams that is “consistently” interested in Reynolds.

Of course, the Pirates are under no obligation to find a trade for Reynolds, even though he has reportedly requested one. He’s not slated to reach free agency until after the 2025 campaign and the club could plausibly return to contention in that window. If no one blows them away with a monumental offer, they can simply hang onto Reynolds as their rebuild progresses.

There’s also the possibility of an extension, though there doesn’t seem to be a lot of optimism in that department at the moment. Recent reporting had indicated that the two sides had been about $50MM apart in their negotiations, with Heyman providing some more details on those talks today. He says the club offered $75MM over six years while Reynolds and his representatives were asking for something a bit lower than the eight-year, $168MM extension Matt Olson got from Atlanta.

The Olson comparison is an interesting one, though not a perfect analogue. When Olson signed his extension in March of last year, he was two years away from free agency, one year closer than Reynolds is now. But from an on-field comparison, there’s some logic to it. Both players had a swoon in the 2020 season but had three strong campaigns around it. Olson’s four years from 2018 to 2021 resulted in a batting line of .254/.348/.501 and a wRC+ of 130. Reynolds, from 2019 to the present, had less power but a better batting average, leading to a slash line of .281/.361/.481 and a wRC+ of 126. Olson produced 12.8 fWAR against a 12.5 mark for Reynolds. Olson was about to turn 28 when his deal was signed, same as Reynolds now.

Given the similar level of production, it’s not surprising that Reynolds’ camp would set that Olson figure as a target. The one year difference in their timelines will limit Reynolds somewhat, but Heyman does report that their ask is indeed lower than that. How much lower isn’t known but it seems to be well beyond Pittsburgh’s current comfort zone. Their six-year offer would seem to take Reynolds through his age-33 season, while Reynolds seems to be trying to get another couple years and go through his age-35 season. That doesn’t mean that talks are necessarily doomed, as large gaps can sometimes be quickly overcome. Not too long ago, the Red Sox and Rafael Devers were reportedly about $100MM apart in their negotiations before the club decided to step up and meet his asking price.

For now, it seems Reynolds is destined to have his name pop up in trade rumors until a deal comes together, whether that’s a trade or an extension. The interest from the Rangers is quite sensible, since the top items on their to-do list this winter have been the rotation and the outfield. They addressed the rotation in a huge way by re-signing Martín Pérez while signing Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney and trading for Jake Odorizzi. The outfield, however, has yet to be addressed.

As things stand now, Adolis Garcia seems to have a lock on right field while Leody Taveras can provide a glove-first option in center. Left field, however, is far less certain with Josh Smith, Bubba Thompson, Brad Miller, Ezequiel Duran and Mark Mathias some of the options. Miller, Smith and Duran have each spent more time on the infield in their careers and are coming off subpar seasons at the plate. Mathias just came over from the Brewers in the Matt Bush trade and hit well down the stretch, but he’s also more of an infielder who can play the outfield in a pinch than an everyday option on the grass.

Thompson is arguably the most straightforward solution currently on the roster. He has excellent speed, having stolen 49 bases in the minors last year and another 18 in the majors. However, he strikes out a lot, including in 30.9% of his 181 major league plate appearances so far. That led to a .265/.302/.312 slash line and a 77 wRC+ despite a .389 batting average on balls in play.

It’s possible that one member of that group could take the job and run with it but it behooves the Rangers to look for upgrades if they plan on competing in 2023. The most appealing free agent outfielders have already signed, leaving AJ Pollock and David Peralta as some of the best names still available. Rosenthal adds that those are two of the names being considered by the Rangers alongside Reynolds.

Reynolds is certainly a more attractive option than those guys, especially for a Rangers club that’s starting to get near the luxury tax. The club’s competitive balance tax figure is currently $220MM, per the calculations of Roster Resource. That puts them within striking distance of the lowest tax threshold, which is $233MM this year. Reynolds is going to be making $6.75MM this year as part of the two-year deal he signed with the Bucs last year, with two further arbitration trips to come.

Adding that kind of salary to their books would allow the Rangers to make a huge outfield upgrade while staying under the tax for now. Of course, that combination of low salary and high talent is what makes him so appealing as a trade candidate and why the Pirates are asking for the moon in return. The Rangers have shown plenty of willingness to hand out huge free agent deals over the past couple of years but whether they would have appetite for parting with premium prospects in order to upgrade the roster is another question.

Adding someone like Pollock or Peralta likely would also likely allow the Rangers to stay under the tax, as they aren’t expected to fetch huge salaries. However, their expected impact is certainly beneath that of Reynolds. Pollock, 35, hit .245/.292/.389 last year for a wRC+ of 92. Peralta, also 35, had a strong first half with the Diamondbacks but wilted after a trade to the Rays, hitting .255/.317/.335 for a wRC+ of 91.

Twins Interested In Justin Turner, A.J. Pollock

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Justin Turner and AJ Pollock are among the veteran free agents under consideration by the Twins as they look to further bolster their lineup, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reports.  Of note, Hayes’ piece was written yesterday prior to Minnesota’s signing of Joey Gallo to a one-year, $11MM contract — Gallo was also listed as a player the Twins were targeting, though his addition could change the equation for other pickups.

In particular, Pollock might no longer be on the radar given how Minnesota’s outfield picture was already pretty crowded even before Gallo joined the roster.  Gallo, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Mark Contreras, Matt Wallner, Gilberto Celestino, and Kyle Garlick are all outfield options for 2023, plus the versatile Nick Gordon could also get some time on the grass when he isn’t in the infield.

That said, there has been some trade speculation surrounding Kepler, and Gallo’s deal might be some hint that the Twins could view Gallo as something of a Kepler replacement.  Furthermore, Buxton, Celestino, and Garlick are the only right-handed hitters within that large outfield grouping, so acquiring Pollock would add more lineup balance and depth at all three outfield positions (though Pollock is no longer a defensive standout at any spot).

The Twins got a close look at Pollock when he played for the division rival White Sox last season, but they hardly saw the veteran at his best.  Pollock’s 92 wRC+ was his lowest in a full season since 2013, and he hit only .245/.292/.389 over 527 plate appearances.  Since he is entering his age-35 season, there is surely concern among some teams that Pollock has started to decline.

On the plus side, Pollock’s overall Statcast numbers were pretty decent, with an above-average strikeout rate and hard-contact numbers.  While his .317 xwOBA was nothing special, his .297 wOBA indicates some degree of bad luck.  Furthermore, Pollock’s overall batting line only took a hit against right-handed pitching — he had a .935 OPS in 133 PA against left-handed pitching in 2022, but a dreadful .593 OPS in 394 PA against righties.

As much as Pollock still looks capable of crushing southpaws, these drastic splits give pause to any club considering Pollock for an everyday job.  The Twins’ plethora of left-handed outfielders would make a platoon or timeshare pretty easy, though it remains to be seen if Pollock would be open to a reduced role.  Pollock already showed confidence in his ability to bounce back by declining his $13MM player option with Chicago and taking a $5MM, essentially making an $8MM bet on himself to find a larger deal on the open market.

There hasn’t been a lot of public interest in Pollock to date, while the Marlins, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks have all been linked to Turner, and at least one team (Miami) has made the infielder a proper offer.  Turner and Pollock were teammates with the Dodgers from 2019-21, and while the 38-year-old Turner is the older of the two, he also figures to be more expensive given the larger interest and a better platform year.

Turner hit .278/.350/.438 with 13 homers over 532 PA with Los Angeles in 2022, essentially having a split season in terms of production.  Turner had a measly .611 OPS over his first 243 PA of the year, but then snapped back into form and had a .940 OPS over his last 289 PA.  Considering the unique circumstances (i.e. the lockout, and the shortened Spring Training) of the lead-up to the 2022 campaign, Turner’s slow start could be written off as a product of an unusual offseason.

With the universal DH coming to the National League last year, Turner basically split time between DH and third base.  The Twins could deploy this same strategy, having Turner and Jose Miranda in a timeshare at third base (though both players at right-handed hitters) and using Turner at DH whenever Miranda is at the hot corner.  Apart from one game at second base and one mop-up inning as a pitcher, Turner has played only third base since the start of the 2017 season, but he could theoretically factor into the first base mix as well.

Christian Vazquez’s three-year, $30MM contract represents Minnesota’s biggest expenditure of the winter, and even with Gallo added, the Twins’ payroll still projects under the $118MM threshold.  That is well under the $134.4MM the Twins spend on their Opening Day roster last year, and given how Minnesota made a concerted effort to try and re-sign Carlos Correa to a pricey new contract, the Twins clearly have money to spend or re-allocate now that Correa has joined the Giants.

AJ Pollock To Decline Player Option

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White Sox outfielder AJ Pollock is declining his $13MM player option, per Buster Olney of ESPN, instead taking the $5MM buyout and returning to free agency.

The decision comes as something of a surprise since Pollock is coming of a noticeable down year in 2022. Going into 2019, he and the Dodgers agreed to a four-year, $60MM contract that came with a $10MM player option for 2023 or a $5MM buyout. That $10MM salary could be increased by $1MM for Pollock hitting 400, 450, 500, 550 and 600 plate appearances in 2022, maxing out at $15MM. Since Pollock got to 527 plate appearances on the year, he added $3MM to his potential total, though it ended up being a moot point since he is taking the buyout.

For the first three years of that deal, Pollock was excellent at the plate, hitting 52 total home runs and producing a batting line of .282/.337/.519. That production was 25% above league average, as evidenced by his 125 wRC+. The Dodgers traded him to the White Sox for Craig Kimbrel going into 2022, which precipitated a downturn at the plate. For the Sox this year, Pollock hit just .245/.292/.389 for a wRC+ of 92, or 8% below league average.

He also seems to have lost a step, which isn’t surprising as he’s about to turn 35. He’s racked up double-digit steals in multiple seasons, including 39 in 2015. However, his last time getting into two-figure territory was 2018 and he only swiped three bags here in 2022. Advanced defensive metrics like Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average also considered him to be average or below in the field this year.

If there’s one thing Pollock has going for him is that he still mashes lefties. His career batting line with the platoon advantage is .285/.335/.533, leading to a wRC+ of 129, compared to a 107 against righties. That split was even more pronounced in 2022, with Pollock hitting .286/.316/.619 against southpaws, leading a wRC+ 161 compared to a 69 against northpaws. 11 of his 14 home runs came against lefties despite getting only about a quarter of his plate appearances against them.

Whether that’s enough for Pollock to come out ahead in the end remains to be seen. Joc Pederson was coming off a somewhat similar down year in 2021 when he had to settle for a one-year, $6MM deal with the Giants for 2022. Pederson also has strong platoon splits for his career, but could play fairly regularly against right-handers since he hits from the left side. If any team has interest in Pollock for a platoon role, he would have less value since there are fewer lefties for him to play against.

For the White Sox, this removes one option from an outfield that’s in flux for 2022. Andrew Vaughn has been playing on the grass a lot despite being a natural first baseman. He had a nice season at the plate but was one of the worst defensive outfielders in the league by most measures. The club is reportedly leaning towards letting Jose Abreu depart in free agency, opening things up for Vaughn to return to first base. Pollock’s departure removes another corner option from the calculus. That leaves the oft-injured Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez as their primary remaining outfielders, though they also have Adam Engel, Gavin Sheets and Mark Payton on the roster. Even with Pollock around, it seemed that the Sox were a good candidate to look for outfield upgrades and his exodus should only increase the chances of them looking for additions there.

Previewing Upcoming Opt-Out Decisions And Player Options

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With the offseason approaching, so is the time for players and teams to decide upon any 2023 options in their contracts. MLBTR has taken a look through various option decisions in recent weeks: first with players whose deals contain vesting provisions, then a respective look at the team options in both the American and National Leagues.

Today, we’ll turn our attention to the players’ side. A number of players could hit free agency this winter either by triggering an opt-out clause in their current deal or bypassing a player option for the 2023 campaign. We’ll take a run through those decisions, many of which will have implications at the very top of the free agent market.

Note: All stats referenced are through play Sunday

Elite Potential Free Agents

  • Nolan Arenado, Cardinals 3B (can opt out of final five years and $144MM)

Arenado was already on a Hall of Fame trajectory before 2022, but he’s bolstering his case with the best season of his career. Through 500 plate appearances, he owns a .306/.370/.567 line with 27 home runs. He’s had seasons with that kind of slash line in years past, but they came with the caveat that he’d played half his games at Coors Field. That’s no longer a factor, and it’s easily his best offensive output once one adjusts for the ballpark. Arenado’s 162 wRC+ is the fourth-best mark among qualified hitters.

That kind of offensive production alone would get him in the MVP discussion, but Arenado’s obviously valuable for far more than his bat. One of the best defensive third basemen in MLB history, he’s continued to post elite marks with the glove even as he’s entered his 30s. Arenado is among the top handful of players in the game. While walking away from $144MM wouldn’t be an easy decision, it’d seem the prudent one from a strict financial perspective. Freddie Freeman received six years and $162MM from the Dodgers (albeit with deferrals that reduced the net present value closer to the $148MM range) headed into his age-32 season. Freeman was coming off a 135 wRC+ platform showing, and he plays a less valuable position. Arenado and his camp could make a strong argument the Freeman contract should represent his floor, and it’s not outlandish to seek a six-year deal at the $35MM annual range Anthony Rendon received from the Angels (which would bring the guarantee to $210MM).

On paper, Arenado’s opt-out decision looks like a slam dunk. There’s at least some amount of uncertainty, though, as he forewent an opt-out opportunity last offseason and told Derrick Goold of the Post-Dispatch it was “always the plan” to remain in St. Louis long term. Passing on free agency coming off a .255/.312/.494 showing in 2021 is a lot easier than doing so after a career-best year that should make him an MVP finalist. Maybe he’s comfortable enough with the Cardinals he’ll return, but he’d probably be leaving a lot of money on the table to do so. At the very least, he looks to have a case for a renegotiation of his contract with the Cards, which is slated to pay him just $15MM in the final season (2027).

  • Carlos Correa, Twins SS (can opt out of final two years and $70.2MM this offseason; deal also contains post-2023 opt-out if Correa opts in this winter)

Regarded by many (MLBTR included) as the top free agent in last winter’s class, Correa reportedly turned down at least one ten-year offer early in the offseason in search of a guarantee that rivaled the $341MM Francisco Lindor had received from the Mets last April. That proposal seemingly never came, and Correa reversed course in Spring Training. He signed a shocking three-year deal with the Twins that guaranteed him the largest annual salary ($35.1MM) for a free agent position player and afforded the opportunity to retest the market in either of the next two offseasons via opt-out.

Conventional wisdom was that Correa was sure to trigger his first opt-out and make another run at a long-term deal in a winter unaffected by a lockout. That still seems likely, although he hasn’t resoundingly made the case for teams to be more willing to approach the Lindor range that they had been. He’s having a similar offensive season as he did during his final year with the Astros. After posting a .279/.366/.485 showing his last year in Houston, Correa is hitting .276/.355/.439 over 440 plate appearances with Minnesota. His raw power production is down, but that’s not quite as alarming when considering the leaguewide slugging percentage has dropped from .411 to .395. Perhaps of greater concern is that the elite defensive marks that garnered Correa a Gold Glove last season are unanimously down, ranging anywhere from below-average (-2 Outs Above Average) to solid (+4 Defensive Runs Saved, +1 Ultimate Zone Rating).

There’s no question Correa’s an excellent player having a very good season. Yet he’s not likely to wind up a top five finisher in MVP balloting as he did in 2021. He’d top a $200MM guarantee on the open market, but he’s unlikely to reach the kind of money he anticipated last offseason. Could he return to Minnesota (where he’s by all accounts very happy) for one more year and look to trigger his post-2023 opt-out after hopefully putting up MVP-caliber numbers? That feels unlikely, but he’s already bet on himself once and would only be entering his age-29 season if he put off opting out for a year.

Bogaerts has been the Red Sox’s everyday shortstop since 2014, but his time in Boston could be nearing its end. He and the club didn’t make progress in extension talks this spring, and he’s a lock to opt out and top $60MM on the open market barring a catastrophic injury. One of the game’s top offensive shortstops, Bogaerts is amidst another strong season. He carries a .303/.372/.448 line through 508 plate appearances. His slugging output is below where it was from 2018-21, but he consistently gets on base and has a strong pre-2022 track record from a power perspective.

One can quibble about certain aspects of Boagerts’ profile. In addition to this year’s slugging dip, he’s traditionally rated as a below-average defender. Even with generally solid defensive metrics this season, clubs will probably have some question whether he’ll eventually need to move to second or third base. Those are nitpicks for whether Bogaerts would be a worthwhile investment in the $180MM – $200MM range, though. A 30-year-old shortstop with an elite durability track record and a .299/.370/.478 line since the start of 2020, he’s certainly going to shatter $60MM even if the market takes a relatively pessimistic view of his long-term projection.

  • Jacob deGrom, Mets RHP (can opt of final year and $33.5MM this offseason)

There’s no suspense with this one, as deGrom has publicly maintained his plan to opt out for months. That’s in spite of elbow/shoulder injuries that kept him from throwing a major league pitch between July 2021 and this August. With only one guaranteed year remaining on his deal (plus a 2024 club option that’d go into effect if he doesn’t opt out this winter), that’s been a pretty easy call. To the extent there may have been any lingering doubts, deGrom has silenced them with his first five starts since returning from the injured list. He’s looked like his vintage self, averaging 99.3 MPH on his fastball while posting a laughable 46:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 29 1/3 innings. On an inning-for-inning basis, he’s the best starting pitcher on the planet.

deGrom’s free agent case will be fascinating. Even if he finishes the season healthy, he’ll have gone three consecutive years without topping 15 starts or 100 innings (although he’s obviously not at fault for the shortened 2020 schedule). What kind of volume a signing team can expect is an open question, particularly as he enters his age-35 season. Yet the upside of a healthy deGrom is through the roof. He’ll receive a multi-year deal that beats the $33.5MM remaining on his current contract. Can he top teammate Max Scherzer’s $43.333MM AAV over a three or even four-year term? Time will tell.

While we’re on the topic of upper-echelon starting pitchers who are basically certain to opt out, let’s turn to Verlander. The future Hall of Famer triggered a $25MM option for next season by throwing 130 innings, but that’s largely a moot point. Verlander told Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic last week he was likely to opt out if things went as planned down the stretch. It’d have been surprising if he were even considering exercising the option.

Verlander has returned from 2020 Tommy John surgery to lead the major leagues with a 1.84 ERA. He’s striking out 26.5% of opponents and has a strong argument for a third career Cy Young award. He’s also a proven playoff performer and a prototypical ace who eats about as many innings as anyone else in the game. Even heading into his age-40 season, Verlander can try to beat the Scherzer AAV on a multi-year contract.

Verlander did injure his calf in his most recent start, resulting in a placement on the injured list just this afternoon. The Astros announced that an MRI of his calf revealed “fascial disruption, but no muscle fiber disruption” — an extremely specific diagnosis but one that both Verlander and GM James Click touted as good news. Click expressed hope the injury will be short-term, and Verlander suggested that had he sustained damage to the muscle fibers themselves, he’d likely have missed the remainder of the regular season and perhaps part of the postseason.

The manner to which Verlander rebounds will obviously be key in his opt-out scenario, but if he misses only a couple weeks’ time and returns strong for his final regular-season and postseason starts, this opt-out is an easy call.

We’ll wrap up the trifecta with Rodón, who’s also going to have an easy decision, barring injury. While there was some trepidation about Rodón’s breakout 2021 season — both due to his inconsistent track record before last season and some shoulder soreness and a velocity drop last August — he’s doubled down and looks to have cemented himself among the game’s top ten starters. Rodón has avoided the injured list thus far, and he’s striking out 32.1% of opponents while posting a 2.81 ERA through 25 starts. By topping 110 innings, he earned the right to opt out after this season.

Heading into his age-30 campaign, he should land the nine-figure deal that eluded him last offseason. Between his youth and last two years of production, Rodón has an argument for the largest guarantee of any free agent starter. He won’t get paid at the deGrom or Verlander level on an annual basis, but he could push for six years and look to top $150MM.

Quality Regulars Likely To Opt Out

Rizzo’s market last offseason seemed a bit underwhelming. The veteran first baseman was coming off two fine but unspectacular seasons, and it looked as if his best days might be behind him with his mid-30s approaching. Rizzo still made plenty of contact and hit the ball hard, but he’d gotten quite pull-oriented and had rough ball-in-play results against an increasing number of defensive shifts. He signed a two-year deal with the Yankees that paid him matching $16MM salaries and allowed him to opt out after this season.

That now looks like an easy call, as Rizzo has bounced back with a year more reminiscent of his peak days with the Cubs. He carries a .223/.337/.480 line and is going to top 30 homers for the first time since 2017. He’s still getting dismal results on balls in play and doesn’t have a particularly impressive batting average, but even that looks as if might turn around next year. It’s widely expected MLB will institute limits on shifting next spring. Few players would stand to benefit more than Rizzo, who’s facing a shift on a whopping 83.5% of his plate appearances according to Statcast. His age and lack of defensive versatility will limit the length of any deal, but he’ll probably beat the $16MM salary over at least a two-year term, even if the Yankees tag him with a qualifying offer.

The Padres’ signing Profar to a three-year, $21MM deal that allowed him multiple opt-out chances was one of the more eyebrow-raising moves of the 2020-21 offseason. The switch-hitter was coming off a solid 2020 campaign, but that shortened schedule was the first in which he’d posted above-average production. It looked like a misstep when he struggled last year and unsurprisingly forewent his first opt-out clause, but Profar has rewarded the organization’s faith with a career-best showing in 2022.

Through 530 plate appearances, he’s hitting .241/.339/.387 with 12 homers. He’s walking at a robust 12.3% clip while only going down on strikes 15.1% of the time. He looks like a solid regular, and headed into his age-30 season, Profar’s a candidate for another multi-year deal this time around. After major throwing issues as an infielder early in his career, he’s played exclusively left field this year. Profar isn’t a prototypical corner outfield masher, but his plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills should allow him to top the guaranteed money remaining on his current deal.

Starting Pitchers With High Buyouts

Walker signed a $20MM guarantee with the Mets over the 2020-21 offseason. The deal was front-loaded but came with a $6MM player option or a $3MM buyout for 2023. Adding a player option allowed the Mets to soften the contract’s luxury tax hit. Because player options are treated as guaranteed money, it technically qualified as a three-year, $20MM deal with a $6.67MM average annual value for CBT purposes. Yet the $3MM gap between the option value and the buyout meant Walker was a virtual lock to opt out, barring injury that made him unable to pitch next season. The Associated Press reports the option has various escalators that could push its value as high as $8.5MM if Walker throws 175 innings this year, but even that figure is modest enough he’s going to decline.

Walker should opt out in search of a multi-year deal, as he’s been a valuable mid-rotation arm for New York. Over 117 1/3 frames, he owns a 3.38 ERA despite a modest 18.3% strikeout rate. His blend of plus control and solid ground-ball rates makes him a candidate for a three-year pact as he heads into his age-30 season. The Mets will have an interesting decision on whether to tag him with a qualifying offer.

Like Walker, Odorizzi signed late in the 2020-21 offseason on a deal that locked in the first two seasons and gave the player a third-year option. Odorizzi’s contract with the Astros was similarly structured to facilitate a third-year buyout while diminishing the AAV for luxury tax purposes, although he’s deciding on a bit more money. The option was initially valued at $6.5MM with a $3.25MM buyout, but the Associated Press provided a breakdown of various escalators. The option value would jump by $2MM apiece if Odorizzi reached 20, 25 and 30 appearances between 2021-22 in which he either started the game or worked four-plus innings of relief. The buyout value would spike by $1MM apiece for hitting each of those thresholds.

Odorizzi has already made 41 such appearances over the past two years, so he’s long since maxed out both thresholds. He’ll therefore be deciding between a $12.5MM option to return to the Braves or taking a $6.25MM buyout and heading to free agency. With only a $6.25MM difference between the option value and the buyout, Odorizzi looks like a borderline opt-out case. He owns a 3.90 ERA across 85 1/3 innings this season, although his 18.3% strikeout rate is a few points below league average. He’ll be 33 by next Opening Day, and he didn’t find as robust interest as most expected he would during his last trip through free agency. He’s a quality strike-thrower and a perfectly fine back-of-the-rotation starter, but it’s now been three years since he’s missed bats at an above-average rate, and he was traded this summer in a one-for-one swap for an underperforming reliever (Will Smith).

Easy Calls To Return

  • Chris Sale, Red Sox LHP (can opt out of final two years and $55MM)

Sale has the right to pass on the final two years of his extension with the Red Sox this winter, but he certainly won’t do so. He’s made just 11 starts over the past three seasons due to various injuries, including a 2020 Tommy John surgery and a trio of fractures (rib, finger and wrist) this year. Sale has still flashed mid-rotation or better upside in the limited time he’s been on the field, but there’s too much uncertainty with his health to land anywhere near $55MM were he to test the market.

  • Eric Hosmer, Red Sox 1B (can opt out of final three years and $39MM)

Hosmer’s opt-in decision is a no-brainer. Since signing a $144MM contract with the Padres heading into 2018, he’s posted a league average .264/.325/.409 slash line. Paired with his lack of defensive versatility and mixed reviews on his glovework (public metrics have never been as fond of Hosmer as his four Gold Gloves would suggest), he’d probably be limited to one-year offers were he a free agent. The Padres will remain on the hook for virtually all of the money, as they agreed to pay down Hosmer’s deal to the league minimum salary to facilitate his trade to the Red Sox.

  • Jorge Soler, Marlins LF (can opt out of final two years and $24MM; deal also contains post-2023 opt-out if Soler opts in this year)

Soler parlayed a big second half and huge batted ball metrics into a three-year deal with Miami last offseason. His massive raw power hasn’t translated into especially strong results since he’s become a Marlin, however. He’s been a below-average hitter, and it’s now been three years since he was a middle-of-the-order caliber player over a full season. Paired with a limited defensive profile that keeps him in the corner outfield or at designated hitter, he’s been right around replacement level this season. He’s not opting out this year, but a big showing in 2023 could allow him to reconsider the possibility next winter.

  • AJ Pollock, White Sox LF ($11MM option, $5MM buyout)

The White Sox acquired Pollock just before the start of the season, sending Craig Kimbrel to the Dodgers in a surprising one-for-one swap. The hope was that they’d addressed a notable hole in the corner outfield, but Pollock’s production has cratered in Chicago. Just a season removed from a .297/.355/.536 showing in L.A., he’s stumbled to a .237/.284/.363 line through 401 plate appearances with the ChiSox. Even with a fairly modest $6MM gap between the option’s present value and the buyout, Pollock is likely to bypass a trip to free agency after a replacement-level platform season.

The present $11MM option value isn’t fixed, as Pollock’s contract contains escalators that could boost it a bit further. Originally set at $10MM, he’d lock in an extra $1MM for hitting each of 400, 450, 500, 550 and 600 plate appearances this season. He’s already surpassed 400 trips, and the 450 mark is well within range with 34 games remaining. Consistent playing time down the stretch would allow him to reach 500 plate appearances as well, although it’s hard to envision him getting to 550. The most likely outcome is that the option price ends up at $12MM, but anywhere between $11-13MM is viable.

Schoop signed a two-year, $15MM extension amidst a productive 2021 season in Detroit. While a defensible enough decision for the Tigers at the time, that hasn’t panned out. The veteran second baseman has a .235 on-base percentage that’s easily the worst in the majors among players with 400+ plate appearances. He’s posted otherworldly defensive marks this season and could well collect a Gold Glove, but the complete lack of production at the dish should make him a lock to exercise his option.

Blackmon exercised a 2022 option last season, and he went on the record at the time as saying he’d trigger the 2023 provision as well. There’s no intrigue as to his decision — he’ll be back in Colorado next year — the only question is how much he’ll make. The ’23 option came with a $10MM base value, but ESPN reported it’d escalate by $500K apiece if Blackmon reached 400, 425, 450, 475, 500, and 525 plate appearances in 2022. It’d jump another $1MM apiece at 550 and 575 trips.

The veteran outfielder enters play Tuesday with 490 plate appearances, so he’s already pushed the value to $12MM. Barring injury, he’s a lock to hit at least the 525 PA mark, and he’s quite likely to get all the way to 575. Colorado has 33 games remaining, and Blackmon is only 85 plate appearances (2.76 per game) from maxing out the plate appearance threshold at $15MM. The deal also contained escalators based on MVP finishes which Blackmon will not hit.

Relievers

  • Nick Martinez, Padres RHP (can opt out of final three years and $19.5MM this offseason, $1.5MM buyout; deal also contains opt-out chances after 2023 and 2024 if Martinez opts in)

Martinez signed a four-year, $25.5MM guarantee with San Diego this past winter. That deal contained opt-out chances after each of the first three seasons for the former NPB hurler, but it seems unlikely Martinez will take his first opportunity to return to the open market. He has a strong 3.02 ERA over 92 1/3 innings during his return season in the big leagues, but he’s worked as a swingman for a San Diego team that has quite a bit of rotation depth. Martinez has excelled as a reliever, pitching to a 1.35 ERA while holding opponents to a .208/.258/.295 line in 40 innings. That’s come with a modest 21.5% strikeout rate, though, and he doesn’t brandish the power arsenal teams tend to prioritize late in games.

Entering his age-32 season, Martinez probably wouldn’t find a better deal that the opt-out laden three years and $18MM (after factoring in the buyout price) he’d be bypassing to return to the open market. The Friars have to be happy with their investment considering his excellence out of the bullpen, but the surprisingly strong deal they gave him in the first place makes it hard to see him doing much better elsewhere even on the heels of a quality first season.

Detroit signed the ever-reliable Chafin late last offseason, and they’ve been rewarded with another excellent year. Through 43 1/3 innings, he’s posted a 2.91 ERA while striking out more than 30% of opponents with an excellent 52.3% ground-ball rate. The market probably undervalued Chafin last winter; it’d be hard to do so again after another very good season. In a vacuum, declining the option and topping $6.5MM in free agency seems likely.

That said, the Tigers decision to not trade Chafin at this summer’s deadline was tied to a belief he could stick around. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press reported shortly before the deadline that Detroit’s proximity to Chafin’s Ohio home could lead him to return in 2023 if he weren’t moved before August 2. That led to a disconnect in his trade value, with the Tigers confident they still possessed a year and a half of his services while other clubs viewed him as an impending free agent. From a strict financial perspective, opting out is the prudent call. Yet the family considerations Petzold noted would make the decision more complicated if Chafin’s priority isn’t simply to maximize his earnings.

San Diego added Suárez, who’d never previously pitched in the majors, on the heels of an excellent career closing in Japan. He had a nightmare outing on Opening Day where he dished out free passes to all three batters he faced, but he’s been quite effective since that point. Excluding his first appearance, Suárez owns a 2.36 ERA with a strong 29% strikeout rate in 34 1/3 innings. He’s still had spotty control, but he’s averaging north of 97 MPH on his fastball. He’d only need to beat $4MM on the open market, and something around that rate over a multi-year term feels attainable heading into his age-32 season. A rough final couple months could change the calculus, but Suárez seems likely to retest free agency at the moment.

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