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A.J. Pollock

Dodgers Sign A.J. Pollock

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JANUARY 29: Bob Nightengale of USA Today has further details on the contract (Twitter links).

Pollock receives a $12MM signing bonus followed by salaries of $1MM, $12MM, $15MM, and $10MM. That sums up to $50MM over four years.

The 2023 player option can escalate up to $15MM if he takes 600 plate appearances in the season prior and can move all the way to $20MM based upon the 2022 MVP voting.

Pollock could alternatively opt out after the third campaign — and keep his $5MM buyout — if he reaches one thousand total plate appearances in 2020 and 2021 or if he tallies 1,450 from 2019 through 2021.

The deal also includes a $1.5MM assignment bonus, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter).

JANUARY 26: The Dodgers added a big piece to their new-look outfield by officially signing free agent outfielder A.J. Pollock, to a four-year contract.  The Excel Sports Management client receives a $60MM guarantee.

Pollock stands to pick up an opt-out opportunity after the 2021 season if he reaches plate-appearance thresholds. If he stays past that point, the deal will pay him $50MM over its four promised campaigns. There’s also a player option for a fifth season. Pollock will choose between a $10MM salary (which can also escalate further) and a $5MM buyout for the 2023 campaign.

Pollock hit .257/.316/.484 with 21 homers and 61 runs scored over 460 plate appearances with the Diamondbacks last season.  Between these numbers at the plate and a solid defensive showing (+6 Defensive Runs Saved, though a -1.6 UZR/150 for his first negative UZR/150 total in six years), it was a decent platform year for Pollock as he entered the free agent market, despite downward trends in his swinging strike and contract rates.

The biggest issue, however, was that Pollock had another lengthy stint on the disabled list, missing roughly six weeks due to a fractured thumb.  This makes it four out of five seasons that Pollock has missed significant time, with a laundry list of injuries (fractured thumb, broken hand, groin strain, and a fractured elbow that sidelined him for much of 2016).  It was during his one healthy season, 2015, that Pollock exhibited his high ceiling, hitting .315/.367/.498 over 673 PA, while also racking up 20 homers, 39 steals, a Gold Glove, and his lone All-Star appearance.

With this injury history in mind, perhaps it isn’t surprising that Pollock wasn’t able to land the $80MM contract he reportedly sought at the start of the offseason, despite a solid amount of interest from the Reds, Mets, Braves, and Astros at various points this winter.  MLB Trade Rumors projected Pollock to land a four-year, $60MM contract in our Top 50 Free Agents rankings, with Pollock ranked eighth in the Top 50 list.

Pollock was linked to the Dodgers earlier this week, and his signing helps solidify a Dodgers outfield that already underwent one shakeup when Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp were traded to the Reds.  While Pollock could end up seeing time as a corner outfielder depending on how the Dodgers shuffle their versatile lineup, the expectation is that Pollock will spend the large majority of his time in his usual center field position, flanked by some combination of Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger, Enrique Hernandez, Joc Pederson, Andrew Toles, and/or top prospect Alex Verdugo in left and right field.  Perhaps more importantly than just his position, Pollock also gives the Dodgers an everyday right-handed bat to help balance out their lefty-heavy lineup.

Perhaps just as notably, adding Pollock would seem to put to rest any chance of Bryce Harper landing in the Los Angeles outfield.  The Dodgers were long seen as potential suitors for Harper, particularly after they cleared some extra payroll space in the Puig/Kemp trade.  Adding approximately $12MM in average annual value on Pollock’s reported contract terms, however, would keep L.A. slightly under the $206MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold, as per Roster Resource’s calculations of the Dodgers’ salary commitments.

This doesn’t mean the Dodgers ultimately won’t end up crossing the luxury tax line this winter, depending on what other moves could still be in the offing.  (For instance, Nightengale reports that the team is in “intensive ongoing talks” with the Marlins about J.T. Realmuto.)  Given the Dodgers’ reported reluctance to again cross the CBT line, however, they could only surpass the $206MM threshold by a minimal amount.  Spending between $206MM and $226MM would subject the Dodgers to only a first-timer penalty of a 20% tax on every dollar spent in overage, so it could be that $226MM is the real barrier for the team this offseason, and they could then duck back under the $206MM line next offseason once some big contracts come off the books.

Since Pollock rejected the Diamondbacks’ qualifying offer and signed a deal for more than $50MM, Arizona will receive a compensatory draft pick that will fall after the first round of next summer’s draft.  The D’Backs have already received such a compensation pick when Patrick Corbin signed with the Nationals, giving Arizona a whopping six picks in the first 79 (or so, depending on what other compensatory picks are awarded) selections in the draft.

For signing a qualifying offer free agent, the Dodgers give up $500K from their international draft bonus pool, as well as their second-highest selection in the 2019 draft.  That pick will be the 31st overall selection, which the Dodgers received as compensation for failing to sign 2018 draft pick J.T. Ginn.

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal was the first to report (via Twitter) on an agreement between the two sides, with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reporting the four-year contract length and Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman (Twitter link) noting the deal was worth at least $55MM.  ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (Twitter link) had the specifics on Pollock’s contract breakdown and the player option details.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Dodgers Interested In A.J. Pollock

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Free agent outfielder A.J. Pollock is a “target” for the Dodgers, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, who adds the two sides are “in discussions.”

Los Angeles, which values balance, flexibility, and the platoon advantage perhaps as much as any team in baseball, currently finds itself with a dearth of right-handed options at play. There’s Justin Turner, of course, but the switch-hitting Yasmani Grandal has left, and the club sent Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp away in a December swap with the Reds, leaving Chris Taylor and the Austin Barnes/Russell Martin duo as the only other penciled-in regulars who hit from the right side. IF/OF Enrique Hernandez demonstrated, for the first time, an ability to produce against same-side arms last year, but the 27-year-old’s meager .221/.288/.377 (82 wRC+) career line vs. righties isn’t likely to suffuse the aggregate-loving front office with much hope.

Though the team’s lefties – Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, and Max Muncy among them – rank as arguably the premier crop in the league, the team was often exposed against southpaws last season, especially late in games, or when facing a bullpen-heavy staff, and can’t hope to always rely on a platoon carousel around the diamond. Indeed, LA’s 2018 bunch was among the worst ever in late-game situations, speculatively owing to its limited bench options in crunch time, given the team’s propensity to hunt for opposite-side advantages in the middle innings.

Pollock, then, offers the perfect antidote, though perhaps not at the right price. As the premier center-fielder on the market, the 31-year-old remains in protracted limbo after early-offseason demands were deemed too high by a number of interested clubs. Recent demands are nebulous, though many have speculated the oft-injured outfielder may be forced to settle for a short-term, high-AAV deal, which would seem to place him right up any number of alleys in Los Angeles.

In his last two, injury-marred campaigns, Pollock’s offensive output has slipped considerably from his 2014-15 peak, when he delivered back-to-back 130 or higher wRC+ seasons. His center-field defense, however, has remained plus, at least per DRS, but he’s swiftly approaching the age at which even generational talents begin to experience a rapid diminishment in their ability to chase down fly balls. The Dodgers, under president of baseball ops Andrew Friedman, aren’t a team that will tolerate age-related decline in any facet, so any long-term deal with Los Angeles may be predicated on the 31-year-old eventually agreeing to move to a corner spot.

How such a signing would impact LA’s ostensible interest in Bryce Harper is unclear, but the club, which has run far away from massive free agent demands under the current regime, wouldn’t figure to be in play for both.

Braves Notes: Anthopoulos, Catching, Markakis, Relief Pitching, Pollock, Gray

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The Braves burst out of the gates this winter with the signings of Josh Donaldson and Brian McCann, but it has been crickets in Atlanta ever since. Here’s the latest …

  • Appearing at a team-sponsored event, GM Alex Anthopoulos discussed the status of the team’s roster-building efforts, as attendee and SB Nation contributor Stacy Marlow documented (Twitter links). Unsurprisingly, he did not divulge much in the way of specifics, but did provide some worthwhile snippets. Anthopoulos suggested the team was not heavily engaged on a “quiet” catching market, but would not rule out a move if the right opportunity comes along. He also seemingly reiterated a familiar stance on free agent outfielder Nick Markakis, indicating that the sides are still keeping an open line and weighing a reunion.
  • The Braves relief unit is certainly an area of potential improvement, but Anthopoulos’s comments suggest he has been lying in wait in hopes of securing good value in that area. He says that he only just spoke with a free agent reliever for the first time recently, indicating that the club has not been in on the quality pitchers that have already signed — many of them for fairly hefty salaries. Anthopoulos added that his expectation is that contract demands will begin to drop as Spring Training approaches. As we’ve often discussed over the past two years, teams are exhibiting much greater patience in free agency. Whether players and their agents can match that discipline and regain some leverage remains to be seen.
  • Most tantalizing, however, were Anthopoulos’s comments regarding one possible swap that’s evidently in the works. “There’s one trade concept right now that 70% of the deal we would agree to, the 30% is probably where we are going back and forth,” he said. “I don’t know if we are going to get it done, but the main piece of the deal I think we ultimately would be ok, it’s the add on.” Certainly, this not-yet-completed arrangement could involve any number of possible players, but it’s at least notable to learn that there could soon be some action.
  • One significant factor in the development of the offseason for the Braves, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link), is the team’s hesitation to part with a draft selection to sign a player who declined a qualifying offer. There were six such players, only two of whom have signed to this point. Several are at least hypothetical targets for Atlanta, with the team reportedly showing real interest in outfielder A.J. Pollock. Rosenthal writes that the Braves are worried about the draft compensation that would be required to land Pollock — in their case, a second-round pick that’ll end up being sixty-something overall. Specifically, he says, the Braves “value the selection more than most clubs” because of the amateur talent penalties the team was slapped with in late 2017. If that is indeed a position the team itself holds, it’s somewhat less than compelling. The Braves certainly aren’t alone in valuing draft selections. Like their competitors, they must consider the future talent pipeline. It’s especially tough to see the club as uniquely situated when it still possesses a bounty of young talent at the major and minor league levels.
  • One possibility that’s seemingly still on the table for the Braves is a move to land Sonny Gray of the Yankees. Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution recently discussed the concept, on the heels of a report from Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link) that suggested the Braves could still be pursuer as the New York org again tries to make a deal on the veteran righty. As Burns explains, it’s not exactly a perfect fit, given Gray’s recent struggles and the Braves’ own needs, but it’s possible to imagine a match and the org has clearly shown prior interest. What’s most interesting, perhaps, is what a hypothetical acquisition of Gray would mean for Julio Teheran — another still-youthful, not-inexpensive starter who is looking to regain his prior form. Understandably, the Braves do not appear to view the rotation as the first order of business. The opening in right field no doubt remains the top priority, with some of the other possibilities discussed above arguably also rating as greater needs. All said, there’s still quite a bit of work to do this winter for Anthopoulos and co.

Central Notes: Machado, Cardinals, Reds, Zimmer

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Could the White Sox now be the favorites to land Manny Machado?  Despite whispers of a mystery team being involved in Machado’s market, the Sox, Yankees, and Phillies were known to be the three clubs most heavily pursuing the free agent infielder.  However, with the Yankees addressing their infield needs elsewhere and the Phillies perhaps now in the driver’s seat to sign Bryce Harper, it leaves the White Sox as potentially the last team standing for Machado.  While things seem to be leaning in the Pale Hose’s direction right now, an industry source tells Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times that “everything is still on the table” in regards to where Machado or Harper could sign.  “These guys are still so young (both 26), so if things aren’t what they want they could gamble and take a much shorter deal and try [free agency] again in the near future,” the source speculated.

More from both the AL and NL Central divisions…

  • The Cardinals have yet to hold any extension talks with Paul Goldschmidt, Marcell Ozuna, or Michael Wacha, GM Michael Girsch told Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and other media.  All three players are scheduled for free agency next winter, and while negotiations could yet take place later in the offseason, Girsch said “We’ll see how this year goes” in regards to the trio.  Since Goldschmidt has yet to play a game in a Cards uniform, it would be very surprising to see him ink an extension before getting a chance to test the open market.  As for Ozuna and Wacha, it makes sense for the Cardinals to see how either player bounces back from an injury-marred 2018 before making a long-term commitment.  Ozuna was solid but unspectacular last season, hitting .280/.325/.433 with 23 homers over 628 plate appearances while dealing with nagging shoulder issues.  Wacha, meanwhile, didn’t pitch after June 20 due to an oblique injury.
  • If the Reds could only spend their money on either Dallas Keuchel or A.J. Pollock, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon feels the team would choose Keuchel, given the greater need for rotation help.  Both players have been linked to the Reds in hot stove rumors this winter, and while Cincinnati has made some notable additions (i.e. Alex Wood and Tanner Roark) to its starting five, it still lacks a top-of-the-rotation arm.  Without Pollock or another true center fielder, the Reds could at least make do at the position in the short term, using some combination of Scott Schebler, Yasiel Puig, and Nick Senzel between the corners.  In another question in Sheldon’s mailbag piece, he doesn’t feel Jesse Winker will be an option in center field due to Winker’s lack of range.
  • Indians outfielder Bradley Zimmer is hoping to beat his recovery timetable as he rehabs from shoulder surgery, telling MLB.com’s Mandy Bell and other reporters that “I feel like I’ll be ready for Spring Training.”  Zimmer was slated for an eight-to-twelve month absence from baseball activities after undergoing labrum surgery last July, so he feels he is making good progress, while acknowledging that “the timetable is not really in my hands, as far as my progression.”  Still, it seems to be a good sign that the former top prospect is looking to hit the field sooner rather than later, especially since the Tribe is sore need of outfield help.  Zimmer has just a .237/.300/.370 slash line over 446 PA in the big leagues, though he has already displayed some quality baserunning and slick glovework in his brief time at the MLB level.

NL East Notes: Harper, Phillies, Braves, Pollock, Nationals

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After meeting with free-agent outfielder Bryce Harper on Saturday, the Phillies are reportedly the No. 1 contenders to sign the six-time All-Star. On the heels of the Phillies’ summit with Harper, owner John Middleton and general manager Matt Klentak shed some light on what the team accomplished by meeting with him and Scott Boras. “I think it was really positive,” Middleton told 6ABC (via Todd Zolecki of MLB.com), and Klentak agreed. “We got to understand the man,” Middleton continued. “We got to understand what he’d be like in the dugout, the clubhouse and the community. He and his wife are really an impressive young couple.” The Phillies’ contingent made a long presentation to Harper’s camp, though they reportedly haven’t issued him an offer yet.

More on a couple other NL East clubs…

  • The Braves, with an opening in their outfield, are among potential bidders for free agent A.J. Pollock, Buster Olney of ESPN observes (subscription required). Although, Mark Bowman of MLB.com notes there’s “hesitance” in submitting a multiyear offer to Pollock, who’s already 31 and has battled significant injury issues on an all-too-regular basis. A one-year deal could be sensible for Atlanta, however, as Bowman contends that the team has the financial flexibility to make such a move. But as Olney points out, signing Pollock – who rejected the Diamondbacks’ qualifying offer – would cost the Braves their second-round pick in this summer’s draft. The club could view that as a fairly steep price to pay for a short-term solution.
  • More on the Braves, who have hired Dana Brown as vice president of scouting, per Bowman. The 51-year-old Brown will help take over for longtime director of scouting Brian Bridges, whom the Braves dismissed Wednesday, as Carlos Collazo of Baseball America was among those to cover. Brown had been with the Blue Jays the past nine seasons, and he’ll now reunite in Atlanta with close friend and Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos, who was Toronto’s GM from 2009-15.
  • While the Nationals have been connected to free-agent left-hander Wade Miley as a potential No. 5 starter, it’s doubtful they’ll add anyone else to their rotation on a guaranteed contract, Jamal Collier of MLB.com hears. That should rule out Miley and other free agents who are in line to receive major league deals, though Collier doesn’t close the door on the Nationals bringing in rotation candidates on minors pacts. Regardless, Washington’s starting staff is already in enviable shape, as the team has signed Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez to accompany Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and perhaps either Joe Ross or Erick Fedde.

Looking At The Best Remaining Landing Spots For A.J. Pollock

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It was far from clear last winter when and where Lorenzo Cain would sign. Still, his status as the lone standout center fielder on the market gave confidence that he’d ultimately find a solid deal. That’s ultimately just what happened, as Cain landed just above MLBTR’s prediction (4/$70MM) with a five-year, $80MM pact.

This time around, A.J. Pollock entered the market without a terribly clear outlook. As with Cain, it was possible to imagine quite a few teams signing him, but hard to point to any particularly obvious fits. Likewise, he’s also obviously the best-available, up-the-middle outfield option. Pollock’s checkered health background led MLBTR to predict a contract of four years and $60MM, even though he has the edge on Cain in age.

So, how do things look now that the calendar has flipped to 2019? Though Pollock remains unsigned, the market has changed shape around him.

Several teams that seemed to be suitors may no longer be. Having signed Michael Brantley, the Astros don’t appear to be much of a fit. While the Mets would surely still like to upgrade, they seem to be limited financially from doing so, with the team evidently choosing to rely on bounceback candidates Juan Lagares and Keon Broxton up the middle. The Reds have added two veteran outfielders; if they were ever a likely suitor, they probably aren’t now.

It’s questionable, perhaps, whether the White Sox are still a plausible landing spot. On the one hand, the club just reached agreement with veteran Jon Jay, who has spent most of his career patrolling center. Of course, he’d also be a plausible corner piece. And it’s fair to wonder what the Chicago front office will do if it fails to land either Bryce Harper or Manny Machado. There still seem to be some scenarios where Pollock fits, depending upon how aggressive the organization ends up being.

Of course, the South Siders’ decisionmaking will surely also include reference to their division rivals in Cleveland. While the Indians have focused to this point on clearing salary, and may not be interested in adding any back, it’s also possible that they’ll find a way to squeeze in a significant contract. Pollock remains a strong roster fit, though the club does not need to focus up the middle specifically with Leonys Martin on hand.

The National League East also has a few possible landing spots. While the Phillies are weighing more significant additions, the team could still check back in after the Harper/Machado situations have further evolved. Innumerable possibilities — and lots of dollars — remain available to the Phils. It is less clear that the Braves will have the need and the willingness to chase down Pollock at this point, though they have been connected in the past. The club has other options up the middle, but could like the idea of utilizing Pollock at times in the corners while forming a ball-hawing, still offensively-capable outfield unit. Given the Atlanta organization’s recent history, though, it seems unlikely that it’ll chase the market.

Out west, the fit is yet more speculative. The Giants have long made some sense but aren’t exactly playing an active role in the offseason to this point. It’s possible to imagine a deal, but new president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi is no doubt realistic about the organization’s immediate outlook and will surely prefer not to tie up future payroll. There’s certainly a way to imagine the division-favorite Dodgers as a landing spot, particularly after the club dealt away a pair of right-handed-hitting outfielders, but signing a sizable deal with Pollock doesn’t really match the front office’s recent approach. Plus, Chris Taylor remains available as a right-handed-hitting center fielder.

Beyond those clubs, there are a few others that could be matches — but only if you squint. Pollock would be a luxury for the Rockies or Angels, but with other priorities and limitations those hopeful contenders likely won’t consider him at full price. The D-Backs would surely like to have Pollock back, but only at a discount. The Tigers or Rangers could still surprise, perhaps, as both have ample spending capacity against their historical levels, but there’s no reason at this point to believe that either club will hand out a long-term deal with little in the way of 2019 hopes and dreams. While the Athletics may or may not believe Ramon Laureano is ready to hold down near-everyday duties in center, they’re unlikely to allocate significant resources to the outfield with so many right-handed-hitting outfield options already available and ongoing rotation needs.

Given those considerations, where do you think Pollock is likeliest to land at this point? (Poll link for app users.)

Passan’s Latest: Harper, Profar, Gray, Ray, Grandal, Pollock, Ender

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It’s too soon to count out a reunion between Bryce Harper and the Nationals, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan writes in his latest column, as “Harper has met multiple times with representatives” from the team.  In a rather surprisingly open interview last month, Nats managing principal owner Mark Lerner said his organization wasn’t willing to go beyond the ten-year, $300MM extension it offered Harper after the season, though rumors have continued to swirl that Washington is still at least monitoring Harper’s market.  It could still be some time before we have an answer about Harper’s 2019 destination, as the outfielder (like many Scott Boras clients) is in no rush to sign a contract that doesn’t meet his satisfaction.  The Phillies and White Sox, Passan reports, are willing to guarantee Harper at least a ten-year deal, indicating that the two teams have at least made some progress in their pursuit of the free agent outfielder, though obviously the gigantic dollar figure Harper is demanding is still a very notable obstacle.

Some more hot stove items from Passan….

  • Before the Rangers dealt Jurickson Profar to the Athletics as part of a three-team trade with the Rays, Texas also explored another three-team scenario involving the Yankees and Braves.  “There was traction, at one point,” Passan writes about a deal that would have seen the Yankees get Profar, the Braves get Sonny Gray, and Texas would have received a prospect (presumably from Atlanta’s farm system).
  • The Diamondbacks would only consider trading Robbie Ray for a very big return, with Passan noting that Arizona would want more for Ray than the Mariners received from the Yankees for James Paxton back in November.  While both Ray and Paxton are front-of-the-rotation southpaws with two remaining years of team control, Ray is almost three full years younger than Paxton, which would explain Arizona’s higher asking price.  That deal saw Seattle land an MLB-ready pitching prospect (Justus Sheffield), another young arm on the brink of the majors (Erik Swanson) and a promising lower-level position player (outfielder Dom Thompson-Williams).  It’s a steep price tag, though at least two teams with a lot of minor league depth have been linked to Ray in trade rumors.
  • News broke last week that Yasmani Grandal turned down a four-year, $60MM offer from the Mets, though Passan says that such an offer was “never officially presented,” and that the terms were “characterized by sources on both sides as more of a discussion.”  Grandal’s market seems a little uncertain right now, due to the number of catcher-needy teams who have already found other backstops, and the looming presence of J.T. Realmuto on the trade market.  With draft pick compensation via the qualifying offer hanging over Grandal’s services, there is some threat of Grandal becoming (in the words of one executive) “this year’s version of Mike Moustakas,” i.e. a QO free agent whose market thins to the point that he is forced to accept a one-year contract.  Grandal accepting a one-year deal “remains unlikely but not out of question,” as per Passan, though the catcher and his camp are reportedly “staying patient” that a satisfactory multi-year deal will eventually surface.
  • A.J. Pollock is one of many big-name free agents whose markets may not get moving until Harper and/or Manny Machado sign new contracts.  As Passan notes, Pollock is a good fit for both the Phillies and White Sox, though those teams are more likely to focus on Harper and Machado before turning to backup plans.  Three executive tell Passan that Pollock’s situation bears similarity to Lorenzo Cain last winter, who had to wait until late January to find a new contract, though his market quickly heated up to the point that he was able to land a hefty five-year, $80MM deal from the Brewers.
  • We heard during the Winter Meetings about the Reds’ interest in Braves center fielder Ender Inciarte, though Passan writes that “talks stagnated” between the two sides, and Cincinnati then pivoted to acquire outfield help in the form of Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp.  Neither of those two are viable center field options, of course, so the Reds remain on the hunt for a replacement for Billy Hamilton.

East Notes: Manny, Yankees, Mets, Pollock, Britton, Nats

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A few notes from the East Coast, where the first day of 2019 is nearing an end…

  • Free-agent outfielder Bryce Harper raised eyebrows on social media last month when he “liked” an Instagram post relating to the Dodgers. Not to be outdone, fellow superstar free agent Manny Machado may have hinted about his own future plans on Instagram, as Jon Heyman of Fancred point outed out on Monday. Machado began following the YES Network, which broadcasts most Yankees games and which the franchise owns a portion of, only to quickly unfollow it when people took notice. Machado’s apparent interest in YES may be much ado about nothing, but for the moment, it has added a bit of intrigue to what looks like a three-horse race for his services.
  • Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen “remains engaged” on the trade market, according to the New York Post’s Mike Puma, who reports the team is seeking an outfielder, a reliever (preferably a lefty), starting pitching depth and a backup infielder. Signing free-agent outfielder A.J. Pollock would address one of those needs, though Van Wagenen implied last month that wouldn’t happen, and Puma hears the Mets are leery of giving the 31-year-old a big contract. Similarly, the Mets are “unlikely” to go after lefty reliever Zach Britton in free agency, Puma writes.
  • With the Nationals gearing up for the arrival of prospect Carter Kieboom, they may not sign a free-agent second baseman to anything more than a one-year deal, Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic suggests (subscription required). The Nationals have shown interest in free agent DJ LeMahieu, but because he’s seeking a multiyear deal, there might not be a match between the sides. Free agent Brian Dozier, who could be in line for a one-year pact, would be a better fit, Ghiroli posits. The club has also expressed interest in Dozier this winter.

Quick Hits: Olney’s Latest, Free Agent Market, Diamondbacks

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It’s been another slow winter for baseball’s veteran free agents, writes ESPN’s Buster Olney. Only six free agents have secured deals with more than two years fully guaranteed, none of whom have been over the age of 32, and there are over 200 unsigned free agents still seeking employment for the 2019 season. ESPN obtained a memo written by player agent Jeff Berry outlining some ideas on how to improve the troubling conditions that have developed in this labor market. Berry writes, “As advocates, our job is to fight for and protect player rights, and when necessary, try and help create solutions — not pointing fingers of blame and hoping things get better. And I wholeheartedly believe there are viable solutions to the core labor issues facing the game that can be remedied to the benefit of players, clubs and fans.” Take a look at the top remaining free agents available here, or track the market as a whole with MLBTR’s free agent tracker. For now, let’s take a look at a few of the specifics covered in Olney’s article, as well as some news from around the (slow-moving) winter market…

  • Refining or reforming current practices regarding service time manipulation and player arbitration are two of the most-often disputed topics, per Olney, but there are other issues at hand as well, including how some people within the industry are unhappy about the way teams use the disabled list. This issue also encompasses the promotion/demotion process termed “portfolio management,” or the process wherein teams shuffle their rosters for particular series matchups throughout the season. While these in-season roster moves make sense from a strategic baseball standpoint, players lose money as a result, often to no fault of their own. For instance, a reliever whose option has already been used in a season might be vulnerable to demotion if unavailable due to overuse (say, if he pitched in three consecutive days). Even if said player is brought back to the big leagues after a couple of days, he still loses a significant amount of major league pay during that span. Thus, such a player loses money – not despite performing effectively – but because he performed effectively. Obviously, given the complexity of even the single above circumstance, there is no shortage of issues for the players’ union to focus their attentions in advance of December 1, 2021 – the date the current CBA expires. 
  • Turning to rumblings about player movement, it’s unlikely the Arizona Diamondbacks bring A.J. Pollock back to the desert even if his free agency drags on longer than expected. Given the flexibility of their roster, however, the Dbacks have options to replace him, writes the Athletic’s Zach Buchanan. The in-house alternatives may not be enough to call off the rebuild, but the number of roster iterations available gives GM Mike Hazen the time to make judicious decisions on the trade market. For example, Ketel Marte could move to center, with his spot at the keystone, then, filled by one of the attainable free agent second baseman on the market (DJ LeMahieu, Brian Dozier, Josh Harrison, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jed Lowrie). Alternatively, Eduardo Escobar could fill Marte’s spot at second should the Diamondbacks acquire a new third baseman (Jake Lamb would be expected to handle first, as is probably the case regardless). Given the absolute dearth of starting options available in free agency, if Marte stays at second, a center field replacement would likely come via trade. The Diamondbacks are unlikely to surrender much in the way of prospects at this stage of their rebuild, which makes finding a trade partner tricky, though not impossible. Their best bet might be to target a young veteran who may still have some upside. Specifically, Michael A. Taylor of the Nationals would be an intriguing player to see given 500 at bats, as might Keon Broxton of the Brewers. 

Market Notes: Pollock, Grandal, Cervelli, Lucroy, Andujar, Blue Jays, Mets

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Outfielder A.J. Pollock may be looking for six years on the open market, Jon Heyman of Fancred reported among many other recent notes. That seems an optimistic target, though certainly it doesn’t hurt to aim high, at least initially. Still, finding the perfect fit to pony up even four years for Pollock isn’t easy, despite his lofty position in an otherwise barren center field market. The teams linked to Pollock so far this offseason – the Reds, Mets, Astros and Braves – have by and large augmented their lineups through alternative means. The Reds just added two fairly notable outfielders in a trade with the Dodgers, the Mets filled their need for a righty bat with Wilson Ramos, and the Astros signed Michael Brantley. While none of these necessarily precludes these teams from bringing on Pollock, they certainly lessen the urgency for the Reds, Mets and Astros, respectively. Speculatively speaking, the White Sox, Giants or Indians are teams that could be fits for Pollock moving forward.

Meanwhile in the free agent market…

  • Speaking of top free agents, backstop Yasmani Grandal is believed to “have four years somewhere if he wants it,” per Heyman, which seems to indicate that the veteran is sitting on some strong offers already. The Reds are among the clubs with interest, though the long-term presence of Tucker Barnhart means Cincinnati can be patient.
  • Elsewhere on the catching market, there was a bit of drama yesterday involving Pirates receiver Francisco Cervelli. Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic tweeted that the team was “very, very close” to sending the veteran to the Dodgers, querying whether medical problems scuttled the deal. GM Neal Huntington offered a rare public rebuke of that rumor, however, Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports (Twitter links). Huntington says the Bucs never “discussed any name with the Dodgers” regarding a possible Cervelli swap. He says that “the implication that a trade was nullified due to a failed medical review is completely wrong.”
  • Heyman writes that the Athletics sought to bring back veteran receiver Jonathan Lucroy, offering him $4MM for the 2019 season, but he seems to be holding out in hopes of getting more elsewhere. Lucroy signed late last offseason, inking his deal with Oakland in March, so both sides have shown a willingness to take the patient approach in waiting out the market.
  • A number of trade possibilities still seem to be swirling, though it’s tough to say at this point what likely will or will not get done. Yankees infielder Miguel Andujar “appears to be on the block, for the right price,” says Heyman. Of course, the Yanks are likely looking for high-end MLB assets in any swap involving the young third baseman, who had an impressive debut season in 2018. Despite concerns about his defensive handle at third, the 129 wRC+ and 27 bombs Andujar posted as a 23-year-old ought to have no trouble returning major league talent for New York.
  • Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca examines the situations of Blue Jays hurlers Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez, noting that president Mark Shapiro made clear recently that the organization does not feel compelled to reduce its asking price on either pitcher. The Reds have been the most eager in pursing Stroman, but their recent acquisitions of Tanner Roark and Alex Wood may lessen the likelihood of a deal. Given that both pitchers still have multiple years of team control, it might behoove Shapiro and the Blue Jays to start the season with the pair of righties in their rotation. A strong start to the 2019 season might be enough to generate the type of return Shapiro desires.
  • The Mets have some new potential schemes in the oven, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports. It seems the club is getting hits on backstops Travis d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki. A backup outfielder was the intended target in a deal for either backstop, but a spare infielder who could back up Amed Rosario at short might be a better fit. They were eyeing Rangers southpaw Mike Minor, but that push has “stalled” as the Mets aren’t eager to put together the type of package that fits the Rangers’ ask. If anything, GM Brodie Van Wagenen has proven an action-oriented approach, so it’s safe to assume the Mets aren’t done dealing yet this offseason.

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