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The Cubs “put in one last call” to Jake Arrieta before completing their six-year, $126MM deal with Yu Darvish, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. Heyman says Epstein respectfully inquired as to whether Arrieta would have been willing to accept “a deal believed to be similar to the one offered to Darvish should Darvish turn them down.” According to Heyman, “while Arrieta surely appreciated the gesture, he wasn’t immediately prepared to accept a six-year deal for what was believed to be for a similar annual salary.”
A careful reading of Heyman’s phrasing is advised, as he at no point states that the Cubs actually made a six-year offer to Arrieta. Nor could one accurately say Arrieta turned down a six-year offer from the Cubs, as we erroneously did in an earlier version of this post. Last Wednesday, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that “the Cubs and Arrieta barely even engaged in contract talks this winter.” If that’s correct, it would be odd for Epstein to even have made an intimation of a six-year offer around that same time.
It isn’t uncommon for teams or their free agents to touch base with each other one final time before either side is on the verge of a move, either out of mutual respect and/or genuine interest to see if a deal could be reached. (For one example from this winter, Carlos Santana’s representatives kept the Indians up to date on his market just to leave open the possibility that the Tribe could’ve found the payroll space to keep Santana in Cleveland.) It also isn’t an uncommon tactic for a team to approach several similarly-valued free agents with similar contact offers to see which, if any, accepts first.
Certainly, it doesn’t seem that Arrieta or his agent Scott Boras felt the need to jump at the Cubs’ offer, as Boras is still confident his client will land a deal closer to the much higher price tag Boras was reportedly seeking earlier this offseason. While the lack of free agent activity around the sport is “not traditional,” Boras said, “it seems normal (now). The free agent market is now under way. For me, it’s December 10th, not February 10th.” Heyman gives an idea of Arrieta’s possible current asking price, writing, “Some might have seen the Cubs’ last-minute inquiry as a chance to end a difficult free-agent season happily, but others understood that Arrieta probably wasn’t going to take a much lower deal than Jon Lester’s in light of the fact that a strong case could be made he’s outperformed Lester over the last few years.” Heyman’s “case” for Arrieta as compared to Lester is certainly worth debating. Lester signed a six-year, $155MM deal with the Cubs on the eve of his 31st birthday, on the back of a huge walk year that resulted in a fourth-place Cy Young finish and a big market bidding war. Arrieta turns 32 soon and is coming off a good, but not great, year. He’s also battling a historically slow free agent market that is likely to leave at least a few big names disappointed.
Heyman lists the Brewers, Nationals, Phillies, Twins, and Cardinals as “the most logical teams” that could still make a play for Arrieta, though he notes that the latter two clubs seem like longer shots. Milwaukee, Washington, and Philadelphia have all been linked to Arrieta at various points this winter and, now that Darvish is off the board, Arrieta might be the top target for a Brewers team that has money to spend and a need for front-of-the-rotation pitching. The Phillies also have a glaring rotation need but may still be a year away from serious spending (their deal with Santana notwithstanding), while the Nats would have to carve out payroll space or simply accept a big luxury tax overage in order to sign Arrieta.
MLB players earned more than $4MM on average in 2017, with some players’ salaries exceeding $30MM. For most people, that’s an unfathomable amount of money. Many people feel that baseball players and other athletes are overpaid, with the median American full-time worker earning around $45K per year.
Why do people object to MLB player salaries? One reason is the nature of the profession – Major League Baseball is a game played for the public’s entertainment, while baseball itself is a game many of us played in our youth for the sheer enjoyment of it. MLB players don’t serve an essential function to society like a teachers or doctors. And to many, the work of an MLB player seems less difficult and much more enjoyable than a typical job. It can be difficult to stomach professional athletes earning 100 times or more than that of a typical American.
Another reason some fans consider players to be overpaid is ticket prices. For a family of four to see the Cubs host the Cardinals on a Saturday in July, sitting in the upper deck, currently costs $565.91 on Stubhub for tickets alone. Of course, context is everything. Go to a Rays-White Sox game on a Wednesday afternoon in April, and a family of four can get in the door for $50 or less. At the heart of the matter: how much do player salaries actually affect ticket prices? I’m not an economist, but I think one would argue that teams will charge what fans are willing to pay. If player salaries were magically cut in half tomorrow, but demand for tickets remained the same, would you expect teams to reduce prices?
The other side of the coin is that, as difficult as it may be to accept given their salaries, MLB players might be underpaid. As an industry, MLB’s revenue has grown to $10 billion. As Nathaniel Grow wrote on FanGraphs a few years ago, the players’ percentage of that pie has dropped from a peak of 56% in 2002 to less than 40% in 2015. No one’s suggesting fans should feel sympathy for wealthy MLB players, but rather that they are entitled to fight for their fair share of the sport’s revenue. After all, without these 1,000 or so players, there’s no MLB. More money for the players doesn’t have to mean higher ticket prices; it would just mean less for the owners. Those on this side of the debate would note that MLB players are highly compensated because there are so few people in the world capable of doing their jobs, and interest in watching them perform drives the sport’s revenue.
As tensions mount between the owners and players, let’s see where MLBTR readers stand. App users can click here to take the poll.
Looking for the best possible MLBTR experience on your mobile device? Check out our free Trade Rumors app, available for iOS and Android! Nine of the top ten free agents somehow remain unsigned with less than a month to go until pitchers and catchers report, so there’s a flurry of hot stove action yet to come. The Trade Rumors app allows you to set up custom feeds and notifications for your favorite teams and players and is the perfect way to stay on top of the news.
The Padres and Marlins each made a huge acquisition this week, though not the kind we typically cover here on MLBTR. Yesterday, FanGraphs stalwart Dave Cameron announced he will be joining the Padres to help build out their Research and Development department. And this morning, former MLBTR contributor Bradley Woodrum announced he’s joining the Marlins analytics team. Cameron and Woodrum were among the best sabermetric analysts operating in the public sphere, and we’ll sorely miss reading their work.
I first encountered Dave’s work about ten years ago, on U.S.S. Mariner. More than anyone, Dave was able to do incredibly intelligent baseball analysis in an understandable, easy-to-read way. Dave is a pioneer in the field of sabermetrics, and I made a point to read just about everything he wrote. I don’t remember much about the early days of FanGraphs, except that it had more graphs. When Dave joined, his writing made FanGraphs a must-read as well. Of course, the site has brought in countless talented writers and analysts since then. I first reached out to Dave in 2009 in hopes of understanding WAR better. He’s been gracious with his time over the years when I’ve approached him with many questions and has been a longtime friend of MLBTR. Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune spoke to Dave, who has had previous interest from MLB teams, about his decision to accept the Padres’ offer.
Back in 2015, Bradley Woodrum applied for a project we were launching on MLBTR: an attempt to create a model that predicts the chance of a pitcher having Tommy John surgery (updated last September). I knew Brad from his stellar work at FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. The Tommy John project was a daunting undertaking, and I was amazed by Brad’s analytical abilities, professionalism, and perseverance in getting the project to the finish line. It took the better part of a year, but Brad delivered what I considered to be the best possible TJS prediction model, given the limitations of public data. I’m proud to have hosted that work on MLBTR. Armed with the superior data of a Major League club, I expect Brad to do great things.
MLBTR wishes the best to Dave Cameron and Bradley Woodrum in their new careers!
If a team has a player on its 40-man roster with at least three and less than six years of Major League service time, who is not signed to a multiyear extension, that player is eligible for MLB’s arbitration process. Some players with less than three years are eligible as well; these are called Super Two players. The arbitration process is used to determine the player’s salary, generally by looking at how the player’s traditional statistics stack up with previously established precedents. About 200 players are eligible for arbitration for 2018, including Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, and Kris Bryant. For many players, the arbitration process is the first major step up in salary prior to free agency.
A player’s agent, with the help of the Players Union, is pitted against the team as they try to settle on a salary. Friday marks the deadline for players and teams to exchange figures, with each side submitting what they think the player’s 2018 salary should be. Many players will agree on a salary in advance of this date; more than a dozen have already. From what I’ve heard, all teams now treat Friday’s deadline as a hard one, meaning if they don’t have a salary agreement by then, they’ll automatically go to a hearing (barring a multiyear extension). Last year, 15 players went to hearings, which occur in February. In an arbitration hearing, each side makes a case for its salary figure in front of an independent panel, and the panel chooses a winner.
For seven years now, MLBTR has been using a proprietary algorithm to project arbitration salaries. We also have a constantly-updated MLB arbitration tracker for 2018, which allows you to filter by team, service time, Super Two status, signing status, and whether the player went to a hearing. You can see and sort by the player and team submissions for those who get to that point, and sort by settlement amount. The tracker has everything you need to keep up with each team’s arbitration class.
Lance Lynn, a right-handed starting pitcher who turns 31 in May, has spent his entire career with the Cardinals since being drafted in 2008. He’s one of the four best starting pitchers on the free agent market, and he’ll continue seeking a multiyear deal in the new year.
Pros/Strengths
Though Lynn missed all of 2016 due to Tommy John surgery, he otherwise carries a reputation of durability. In each of the pitcher’s other five seasons, he’s made at least 29 starts. Lynn was one of only 12 pitchers to make 33 regular season starts in 2017, a claim only Ricky Nolasco can make among fellow free agents.
Lynn has delivered results throughout his big league career. He’s never posted an ERA above 4.00 in a season, and carries a 3.38 career mark that he basically matched this year. While Lynn lacks supporting stats to back up this year’s 3.43 ERA, consider this from Eno Sarris of FanGraphs:
“But not only is there an existing fastball-mixing skill that’s not currently captured by projections in his current arsenal, there’s potential for an emerging new pitch [a changeup] in there as well. Lynn’s an intriguing watch, and signing, for a guy who mostly throws fastballs.”
Some teams may look at Lynn as a pitcher with a track record of success and durability, plus some upside given the right tweaks.
Cons/Weaknesses
In attempting to make a post-Tommy John assessment of Lynn’s abilities, we only have his 186 1/3 innings this year. He posted career-worsts in three key categories: strikeout rate, walk rate, and home run rate. His walk rate was second-worst among all qualified starters. Using SIERA, it was a blend of skills that suggested a 4.85 ERA, much worse than his actual 3.43 mark. Lynn benefited from a .244 batting average on balls in play, which is not considered a repeatable mark. To his benefit in the future, Lynn’s 14.2% home run per flyball rate probably won’t stay that high. Still, it just wasn’t an intriguing mix of skills this year. A team signing Lynn has to hope or expect to bring back his prior abilities. His second half, with even worse strikeout and walk rates, did not qualify as progress.
While Lynn should be able to take the ball every fifth day, he’s not likely to save a team’s bullpen. Of 58 starting pitchers who threw at least 100 innings, Lynn ranked 42nd with an average of 5.64 innings per start.
Lynn rejected a qualifying offer from the Cardinals in November, so he’ll come with a draft pick cost attached.
Background
Lynn was drafted 39th overall by the Cardinals in 2008 out of the University of Mississippi. He was a supplemental pick for the loss of free agent reliever Troy Percival, who had inked an $8MM deal with the Rays. Among those born in Indiana with at least 900 career innings pitched, Lynn ranks sixth with a .605 career winning percentage, behind Art Nehf.
Market
The Rangers, Brewers, and Orioles have been linked to Lynn to some degree in reports this offseason. Other theoretical fits could include the Angels, Blue Jays, Mariners, Cubs, Phillies, and Mets. There seems to be little momentum for a return to the Cardinals. Lynn must contend with fellow free agent Alex Cobb, who is in a similar tier. Plus, if the price somehow drops far enough on Jake Arrieta or Yu Darvish, those pitchers could interfere with Lynn’s market. In fact, they may be currently holding it up.
Expected Contract
Back in October, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote that Lynn would pursue a deal like the five-year, $110MM pact signed by Jordan Zimmermann signed two years ago. We went with a four-year, $56MM projection, which I’ll upgrade to four years and $60MM. Normally at this point in the offseason, we’d call for reduced contracts, but it’s unclear whether that will happen given the sheer volume of unsigned quality free agents.
The Orioles “continue to hear from multiple teams interested in trading for Manny Machado,” tweets Jon Morosi of MLB Network, who doesn’t believe the club has a firm deadline on trade talks for their star infielder. As Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com wrote six days ago, “These incremental updates are white noise.” Unfortunately, that’s all we’ve got right now! Connolly’s best guess at that time: Machado will be traded before Opening Day. For now, we’ll continue to wait for the hot stove to light.
2:15pm: The Twins issued the following statement:
“Today the Minnesota Twins were made aware of allegations involving Miguel Sano at an offsite appearance during the 2015 season. The Twins, along with Major League Baseball, take these allegations very seriously. Until more information is gathered, the Twins will have no further comment.”
A short while later, Sano issued the following statement:
“I unequivocally deny the allegation made against me today — it never happened. I have the utmost respect for women, especially those working in professional sports, and I deeply sympathize with anyone who has experienced sexual harassment. There is no place for it in our society.”
12:53pm: Photographer Betsy Bissen has accused Twins third baseman Miguel Sano of assault, in a post on social media this morning. Bissen, a photographer who has covered Twins games and events, describes an incident in 2015 with Sano at an autograph signing. Bissen says Sano recognized her from Twins games she worked as a photographer. In her account, she describes how Sano flirted without reciprocation during the signing, and later “grabbed my wrist and made me go” with him, his agent, and her employer to an Apple Store. Bissen further describes the incident as follows:
“We spend around a half hour inside that store before it was time for him and his agent to leave. Their car was pulled around to a back hallway door. As we got outside, the athlete decided he needed to use the restroom. I asked my boss where it was and pointed to the door we just walked thru. Apparently I was too close, and the athlete took that as a signal that I wanted him to grab me and try to take me back thru that door.
I pulled back as he held onto my wrist. It hurt, how badly he was grasping at my wrist, but he wouldn’t let go. I wasn’t going to give up my fight though. He then leaned down and tried to kiss me, more than once. Every time he did, I said no and kept pulling back. I was in a squatted position with my wrist throbbing. I screamed, no one came to help me. He finally gave up after a solid ten mins of fighting to pull me thru that door. I don’t even want to think of what he may have done, had he got me thru that door. No, he didn’t rape me, but he sure did assault me. When I said no, it should have been the end of it. He should have respected that and stopped. Instead, he hurt me and kept going.
The next day, my body was sore all over from having to fight off this athlete that thought he was entitled to take advantage of me against my will.”
MLB and the players’ union agreed to a domestic violence, sexual assault, and child abuse policy in August 2015. It seems likely that MLB will investigate this incident, which could result in a suspension for Sano. It appears the Twins may just be learning about this incident. This year’s #metoo movement seems to have compelled Bissen to share her story publicly. I asked Bissen in a Twitter message whether she would cooperate with MLB if they contact her, and she replied, “If they do, I will cooperate. I honestly don’t want anything from this other than to feel free from what happened to me.”
Jake Arrieta is one of four major free agent starting pitchers who seems destined to sign in the new year. Arrieta’s agent, Scott Boras, has a long history of waiting out the market. Here’s a list of free agent contracts signed by Boras clients in the last decade in January, February, or March:
Keep in mind, however, that not all of these contracts met expectations. We ranked Arrieta fourth on our list, with a prediction of four years, $100MM that I’m guessing Boras would have said was way low. I think Arrieta can still get a contract in that range. But from which team?
The Cubs seem more interested in Yu Darvish than in bringing Arrieta back, but it’s reasonable to keep them in the mix for Jake. Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports has linked the Nationals to Arrieta, and that’s certainly a team that was involved on many of the above-listed Boras free agents. A source speaking to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post called the team’s interest in Arrieta “tepid.” Heyman has also named the Phillies, though Inquirer beat writer Matt Gelb doesn’t see that as likely either. The Astros, Blue Jays, Rockies, Rangers, Brewers, Twins, and Cardinals have been linked as well. Keep in mind that teams that might have shied away from huge November/December demands for Arrieta could re-enter the picture if the price gets more realistic in the new year. Another factor is draft pick compensation. For more info on that, check out my post about which draft picks each team would lose by signing a qualified free agent like Arrieta.
With that, I throw it out to you:
