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Love MLBTR? Support Us With An Ad-Free Subscription

By Tim Dierkes | December 8, 2020 at 10:00am CDT

With MLBTR’s revenue down 40% this year, we’re asking diehard readers to consider supporting the site with an ad-free subscription.  We’re not asking for donations, however.  Our team works hard to make the $29.99-per-year subscription worth your while beyond the removal of ads, with exclusive chats, articles, and tools.  Check out all the benefits here.  Thanks for supporting our hot stove coverage.

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Complete List Of Non-Tendered Players

By Tim Dierkes | December 2, 2020 at 10:58pm CDT

The non-tender deadline has passed.  Some of the more notable non-tenders included Kyle Schwarber, David Dahl, Archie Bradley, Eddie Rosario, Adam Duvall, Maikel Franco, Nomar Mazara, and Carlos Rodon.

Here’s the full list of players who were non-tendered and became free agents today.  You can view our full free agent tracker here.

Catchers

Curt Casali (32)
Chadwick Tromp (26)
Tony Wolters (29)

First Basemen

Rangel Ravelo (29)
Danny Santana (30)

Second Basemen

Hanser Alberto (28)
Kyle Farmer (30) – immediately signed MLB deal afterward
Greg Garcia (31)

Shortstops

Jeison Guzman (22)
Daniel Robertson (27)

Third Basemen

Maikel Franco (28)
Travis Shaw (31)

Left Fielders

David Dahl (27)
Adam Duvall (32)
Eddie Rosario (29)
Kyle Schwarber (28)

Center Fielders

Albert Almora (27)
Delino DeShields (28)
Brian Goodwin (30)
Scott Heineman (28)
Erick Mejia (26)
Bubba Starling (28)

Right Fielders

Ben Gamel (29)
Nomar Mazara
(26)
Tyler Naquin (30)
Jace Peterson (31)

Designated Hitters

Jose Martinez (32)

Starting Pitchers

Tyler Anderson (31)
Chi Chi Gonzalez (29)
Foster Griffin (25)
Ariel Jurado (25)
Carlos Rodon (28)
Jefry Rodriguez (27)
Jose Urena (29)

Right-Handed Relievers

Melvin Adon (26)
R.J. Alaniz (30)
Justin Anderson (28)
Matt Andriese (31)
Archie Bradley (28)
John Brebbia (31)
A.J. Cole (29)
Edgar Garcia (24)
Rico Garcia (27)
Jimmy Herget (27)
Jonathan Holder (28)
Clay Holmes (28)
Keynan Middleton (27)
Hansel Robles (30)
Carlos Sanabria (24)
Paul Sewald (31)
Ryne Stanek (29)
Ryan Tepera (33)
Nick Tropeano (30)
Matt Wisler (28)

Left-Handed Relievers

Alex Claudio (29)
Hoby Milner
(30)
Chasen Shreve (30)

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Newsstand

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MLB Arbitration And Non-Tender Tracker

By Tim Dierkes | December 2, 2020 at 6:29pm CDT

With the MLB non-tender deadline set for 7pm central time tonight, we’ll continue to see players agreeing to early “pre-tender” arbitration contracts.  As the deadline nears, many others will not be tendered contracts by their teams, making them free agents.

This year I’ve decided to track all of this activity in this Google Sheet.  Feel free to use it to follow along and create your own temporary filters on it.  Long-term, I’m planning to revamp all of our trackers.

You can also check out our free agent list and tracker, where I’ll be adding non-tendered players as the news comes in.

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2020 Non-Tender Candidates

By Tim Dierkes and Steve Adams | November 28, 2020 at 11:06pm CDT

More than 200 MLB players are currently eligible for arbitration, meaning they are on a team’s 40-man roster and have enough service time to have their salaries determined through the longstanding backward-looking system.  At the low end, this includes players who qualify for Super Two status, the exact cutoff for which is not known yet for 2020.  The Super Two cutoff typically falls around two years and 130 days (written as 2.130) but has fallen as low as 2.115 last year.  The high end of service time would be anyone short of the six years needed to qualify for free agency, even one day shy like Kris Bryant.

Potentially arbitration eligible players have been getting pared from 40-man rosters since the offseason began, but those that remain will be subject to the non-tender deadline.  This deadline is at 8pm ET on Wednesday, December 2nd.  By that point, teams must inform arbitration-eligible players whether they will receive a non-guaranteed contract for the 2020 season, or else become free agents. Once a player is tendered a contract, the two sides will have another roughly two months to work out salaries before arbitration hearings kick off in February. Non-tendered players immediately become free agents who can sign with another team for any amount.  Those will be added to our free agent list and tracker.

There is a general expectation among baseball writers that this year, arbitration eligible players will be cut loose in record numbers due to teams’ financial losses in 2020 and uncertainty for 2021.  Eric Longenhagen at FanGraphs recently explored recent historical non-tender data, suggesting that the number of players being cut at the deadline already has been on the rise.  My guess is that we’ll see a handful of players cut that normally wouldn’t be, but nothing wildly abnormal.

As we do each year at MLBTR, we’re providing a list of players whose teams could potentially choose not to tender them a contract, thus sending them into the free agent pool earlier than expected. It should be emphasized that we’re not indicating that each of these players is likely to be non-tendered (though that’s certainly the case with some of them). Typically, we list any player for which we can envision at least a 10 percent chance of a non-tender, but this year I’ve included some long shots who are probably less likely than that.

It should also be noted that some of these non-tender candidates will be traded prior to the December 2nd deadline rather than simply cut loose. Some could also be claimed by another team on waivers.  Other borderline candidates may be presented with an offer that is notably lower than their projected salary and could accept the “take it or leave it” ultimatum rather than being non-tendered.  This is known as a pre-tender contract.  Multiyear extensions are another possibility.

Determining arbitration salaries will be especially difficult this offseason, which I’ve written about here.  That difficulty also applies to the arbitration salary projections Matt Swartz provides each year for MLBTR, which can be found here.  In this list, I’ve provided Matt’s “Method 3” arbitration projections.  On to our list of non-tender candidates:

Catchers

Curt Casali, Reds ($1.8MM)
Elias Diaz, Rockies ($850K)
Austin Hedges, Indians ($3.0MM)
Omar Narvaez, Brewers ($2.9MM)
Gary Sanchez, Yankees ($5.5MM)
Pedro Severino, Orioles ($1.4MM)
Tony Wolters, Rockies ($2.0MM)

First Basemen

Danny Santana, Rangers ($3.6MM)

Second Basemen

Hanser Alberto, Orioles ($2.6MM)
Johan Camargo, Braves ($1.9MM)
Greg Garcia, Padres ($1.6MM)

Shortstops

Orlando Arcia, Brewers ($2.8MM)
Erik Gonzalez, Pirates ($1.2MM)
Niko Goodrum, Tigers ($1.6MM)
Daniel Robertson, Giants ($1.1MM)
Pat Valaika, Orioles ($1.1MM)

Third Basemen

Kris Bryant, Cubs ($18.6MM)
Travis Shaw, Blue Jays ($4.5MM)

Left Fielders

Tommy Pham, Padres ($8.0MM)
Eddie Rosario, Twins ($9.6MM)
Kyle Schwarber, Cubs ($7.9MM)

Center Fielders

Albert Almora, Cubs ($1.575MM)
Delino DeShields, Indians ($2.1MM)
Brian Goodwin, Reds ($2.7MM)
Guillermo Heredia, Mets ($1.3MM)

Right Fielders

Ben Gamel, Brewers ($1.7MM)
Nomar Mazara, White Sox ($5.7MM)
Tyler Naquin, Indians ($1.8MM)
Jace Peterson, Brewers ($700K)

Designated Hitters

Jose Martinez, Cubs ($2.1MM)
Daniel Vogelbach, Brewers ($1.4MM)

Starting Pitchers

Tyler Anderson, Giants ($3.7MM)
Yonny Chirinos, Rays ($1.6MM)
Chi Chi Gonzalez, Rockies ($1.2MM)
Jon Gray, Rockies ($5.9MM)
Robert Gsellman, Mets ($1.3MM)
Reynaldo Lopez, White Sox ($1.7MM)
Steven Matz, Mets ($5.1MM)
Carlos Rodon, White Sox ($4.5MM)
Jose Urena, Marlins ($3.9MM)
Vince Velasquez, Phillies ($4.0MM)

Right-Handed Relievers

Justin Anderson, Angels ($700K)
Matt Andriese, Angels ($1.9MM)
Shawn Armstrong, Orioles ($800K)
Matt Barnes, Red Sox ($4.1MM)
Ryan Brasier, Red Sox ($1.0MM)
John Brebbia, Cardinals ($800K)
Austin Brice, Red Sox ($700K)
Luis Cessa, Yankees ($1.1MM)
Adam Cimber, Indians ($800K) – designated for assignment
A.J. Cole, Blue Jays ($800K)
Jairo Diaz, Rockies ($800K)
Seranthony Dominguez, Phillies ($900K)
Carlos Estevez, Rockies ($1.5MM)
Michael Feliz, Pirates ($1.1MM)
Trevor Gott, Giants ($700K)
Ben Heller, Yankees ($700K)
Jonathan Holder, Yankees ($900K)
Corey Knebel, Brewers ($5.125MM)
Luke Jackson, Braves ($1.9MM)
Joe Jimenez, Tigers ($1.0MM)
Keynan Middleton, Angels ($900K)
Colin Rea, Cubs ($1.0MM)
Hansel Robles, Angels ($3.9MM)
Nick Tropeano, Mets ($700K)
Dan Winkler, Cubs ($900K)

Left-Handed Relievers

Scott Alexander, Dodgers ($1.0MM)
Alex Claudio, Brewers ($2.0MM)
Grant Dayton, Braves ($800K)
Wandy Peralta, Giants ($1.0MM)
Kyle Ryan, Cubs ($1.2MM)
Chasen Shreve ($800K)

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MLBTR Originals Newsstand Non-Tender Candidates

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Mel Rojas Jr. Drawing Interest After MVP-Caliber KBO Season

By Tim Dierkes | November 28, 2020 at 2:08pm CDT

The MLB legacy of the Alou/Rojas family runs deep.  Felipe and Matty Alou made multiple All-Star teams in the 60s, with Jesus joining them on the 1963 Giants for the first all-brother outfield.  Felipe would further his reputation as the longtime manager of the Expos and Giants.  Moises would become an even better MLB player than his father Felipe, racking up six All-Star appearances and MVP votes in seven seasons.  And don’t forget Felipe’s other son, Luis, who was requested by MLB to use the surname on his birth certificate.  Luis Rojas now serves as manager of the Mets.

Moises’ cousin, Mel Rojas, pitched in the Majors in the 90s for the Expos and other clubs, racking up 126 saves in his big league career.  Mel Rojas Jr., however, hasn’t yet seen MLB success.  Mel Jr., 31 in May, was drafted by the Pirates in the third round in 2010 as a switch-hitting outfielder out of Wabash Valley College in Mount Caramel, Illinois.  At his MLB prospect peak, Rojas was ranked 23rd among Pirates prospects by Baseball America before the 2011 season.  BA wrote, “Some see him as having five-tool potential, though with no true plus tool, but others see him as a tweener who won’t be able to remain in center and may not hit enough for a corner.”

Rojas topped out at Triple-A in the Pirates organization, and was traded to the Braves in 2016 for cash considerations.  In 2017, he decided to reboot his career by signing with a KBO team, the KT Wiz.  After four strong years in Suwon, Rojas is back on the radar for MLB teams.  He appears on track for the KBO MVP award tomorrow after nearly winning the Triple Crown in 2020, boasting a .349/.417/.680 line with 47 home runs and 135 RBI in 628 plate appearances.  Ted Baarda of Sports Info Solutions recently provided a scouting report on Rojas.

Rojas is represented by his cousin Jay Alou, son of Jesus Alou.  Rojas fits best as a right fielder, and would require a Major League deal to return to the United States.  As Rojas said to Kyle Koster of The Big Lead back in July, “If I win the MVP, I’m for sure getting a big-league contract. It would mean everything to me, and I’m not just saying that.”  He earned $1.5MM in 2020, and is looking to top that amount.  The Wiz would like to retain him, but Rojas is also drawing interest from three MLB teams as well as three Japanese clubs.

The question is how Rojas’ KBO video game numbers would translate to MLB.  Rojas explained the difference in his interview with Koster: “Honestly, it’s harder to hit against Koreans than Americans sometimes. The average speed over here is 88-90 mph but it gets there quick and looks faster than it is. They’re very sneaky.”  Rojas hasn’t mashed at the level of Eric Thames, who peaked at a 216 wRC+ in KBO and landed a three-year, $16MM deal with the Brewers four years ago.  Thames has a 113 wRC+ in the Majors since returning, doing most of his damage against right-handed pitching.

When FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski translated Rojas’ 2019 KBO season to its MLB equivalency, his .322/.381/.530 line in KBO became .266/.314/.448 in MLB.  That’s pretty similar to the work of an Eric Hosmer or Renato Nunez the last couple of seasons, though Rojas upped his game in 2020.  Unlike someone like Thames, Rojas has the ability to play the corner outfield capably, and appears to have the arm for right field.  A low-level MLB deal does seem possible for Rojas, but he’d likely have to wait until after Wednesday’s non-tender deadline when teams will have a better picture of who’s available.

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Mel Rojas Jr. MLBTR Originals

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Enter The MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest

By Tim Dierkes | November 19, 2020 at 9:32pm CDT

It’s time for the MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Prediction Contest!  Click here to enter your picks for the destinations for our top 50 free agents.  The deadline for entry Friday, November 20th at 11pm central time.  You can edit your picks until then.  Further contest info:

  • After the window to make picks has closed, we’ll post a public leaderboard page so you can see who’s winning the contest as players sign with teams.  We’re going to use entrants’ full names on it.  So, if that concerns you, please do not enter the contest.  Entries with inappropriate names will be deleted.
  • We are also collecting email addresses, which I will use to notify winners.  I may also send occasional promotional emails for Trade Rumors Front Office.
  • If a player signs between now and the close of the contest, that’s a freebie, but you still need to go in and make the correct pick.
  • After you submit your picks, you’ll receive an email from Google Forms.  In that email, you’ll see a button that allows you to edit your picks.
  • We will announce the winners on MLBTR once all 50 free agents have signed.  We will award $500 to first place, $300 to second place, and $100 to third place.  We will also be giving out ten one-year memberships to Trade Rumors Front Office.  Winners must respond to an email within one week.
  • Ties in the correct number of picks will be broken by summing up the rankings of the free agents of the correct picks and taking the lower total.  For example: Tim and Steve each get two picks correct.  Tim gets Trevor Bauer (#1 ranking) and James Paxton (#20 ranking) for a total of 21 points.  Steve gets Ha-Seong Kim (#6) and James McCann (#14) for a total of 20 points.  Steve’s total is lower and he’s ahead of Tim for tiebreaker purposes.

If you have any further questions, ask us in the comment section of this post!  Otherwise, make your picks now!

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Support MLBTR’s Hot Stove Coverage

By Tim Dierkes | November 17, 2020 at 8:59pm CDT

The hot stove is upon us! Our top 50 free agents list went up this month, we’re running a free agent prediction contest with cash prizes, and our non-tender candidates list was published today.  We’re dedicated to providing the best MLB offseason coverage possible, as we have for the past 15 years.  With MLBTR’s revenue down over 40% this year, we’d love for you to consider a $29.99 ad-free subscription if you have the means.  Click here to check out all the benefits of membership!

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2021-22 MLB Free Agents

By Tim Dierkes and Steve Adams | November 16, 2020 at 1:29pm CDT

The 2020-21 offseason is just getting underway, but since we typically try to keep an eye out for at least a year in advance here at MLBTR, we decided to take a look ahead to next winter and the crop of players who’ll be free agents next winter, after the 2021 season. Players’ ages for the 2022 season are listed in parentheses.

Looking for the 2020-21 (current) free agent class?  Check out our list and tracker.

Updated 1-19-21

Catchers

Tucker Barnhart (31) — $7.5MM club option ($500K buyout)
Welington Castillo (35)
Travis d’Arnaud (33)
Yan Gomes (34)
Sandy Leon (33)
Martin Maldonado (35)
Roberto Perez (33) — $7MM club option ($450K buyout)
Salvador Perez (32)
Manny Pina (34)
Buster Posey (35) — $22MM club option ($3MM buyout)
Kurt Suzuki (38)
Christian Vazquez (31) — $7MM club option ($250K buyout)
Mike Zunino (31) – club option ($1MM buyout)

First Basemen

Brandon Belt (34)
Matt Carpenter (36) — $18.5MM vesting option ($2MM buyout)
Freddie Freeman (32)
Yuli Gurriel (38) — $8MM club option ($500K buyout)
Anthony Rizzo (32)

Second Basemen

Starlin Castro (32)
Wilmer Flores (30) — $3.5MM club option ($250K buyout)
Josh Harrison (34)
Dustin Pedroia (38)
Donovan Solano (34)

Shortstops

Javier Baez (29)
Carlos Correa (27)
Brandon Crawford (35)
Leury Garcia (31)
Jose Iglesias (32)
Francisco Lindor (28)
Miguel Rojas (33) — $5.5MM club option vests with 500 PAs in 2021 ($500K buyout)
Corey Seager (28)
Trevor Story (29)
Chris Taylor (31)

Third Basemen

Nolan Arenado (31) — can opt out of remaining five years, $164MM
Kris Bryant (30)
Matt Carpenter (36) — $18.5MM vesting option ($2MM buyout)
Eduardo Escobar (33)
Josh Harrison (34)
Jose Ramirez (29) — $11MM club option ($2MM buyout)
Kyle Seager (34) — $15MM club option (buyout size dependent on stats in 2020-21)
Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (30)

Left Fielders

Mark Canha (33)
Ian Desmond (36) — $15MM club option ($2MM buyout)
Corey Dickerson (33)
Andrew McCutchen (35) — $15MM club option ($3M buyout)
Tommy Pham (34)
Kyle Schwarber (29)
Chris Taylor (31)
Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (30)

Center Fielders

Ian Desmond (36) — $15MM club option ($2MM buyout)
Leury Garcia (31)
Odubel Herrera (30) — $11.5MM club option ($2.5MM buyout)
Ender Inciarte (31) — $9MM club option ($1.025MM buyout)
Starling Marte (33)
Michael A. Taylor (31)

Right Fielders

Charlie Blackmon (35) — $21MM player option; contract also contains $10MM player option for 2023
Kole Calhoun (34) — $9MM club option ($2MM buyout)
Mark Canha (33)
Nick Castellanos (30) — can opt out of remaining two years, $34MM on contract
Michael Conforto (29)
Adam Eaton (33) — $8.5MM club option
Dexter Fowler (36)
Avisail Garcia (31) — $12MM club option ($2MM buyout)
Adam Jones (36) — contract in Japan contains club option for 2022
Gregory Polanco (30) — $12.5MM club option ($3.5MM buyout; contract also contains $13.5MM club option for 2023)
Jorge Soler (30)

Designated Hitters

Nick Castellanos (30) — can opt out of remaining two years, $34MM on contract
Khris Davis (34)
J.D. Martinez (34) – can opt out of remaining one year, $19.375MM
Albert Pujols (42)
Jorge Soler (30)
Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (30)

Starting Pitchers

Dylan Bundy (29)
Tyler Chatwood (32)
Alex Cobb (34)
Johnny Cueto (36) — $22MM club option ($5MM buyout)
Zach Davies (29)
Anthony DeSclafani (32)
Danny Duffy (33)
Kevin Gausman (31)
Jon Gray (30)
Zack Greinke (38)
Andrew Heaney (31)
Merrill Kelly (32) — $4.25MM club option ($500K buyout)
Clayton Kershaw (34)
Yusei Kikuchi (31) — Mariners can exercise four-year, $66MM extension; if not, Kikuchi has one-year, $13MM player option
Kwang-Hyun Kim (33)
Corey Kluber (36)
Jon Lester (38)
Michael Lorenzen (30)
Jordan Lyles (31)
Lance Lynn (35)
Carlos Martinez (30) — $17MM club option ($500K buyout; contract also contains $18MM club option for 2023)
Steven Matz (31)
Lance McCullers Jr. (28)
Wade Miley (35) — $10MM club option ($1MM buyout)
Mike Montgomery (32)
Charlie Morton (38)
Daniel Norris (29)
Martin Perez (31)
Michael Pineda (33)
Jose Quintana (33)
Robbie Ray (30)
Tanner Roark (35)
Eduardo Rodriguez (29)
Max Scherzer (37)
Drew Smyly (33)
Marcus Stroman (30)
Noah Syndergaard (29)
Jose Urena (30)
Vince Velasquez (30)
Justin Verlander (39)
Michael Wacha (30)
Alex Wood (31)

Right-Handed Relievers

Matt Andriese (32)
Matt Barnes (32)
Dellin Betances (34) — player option worth $1-3MM depending on number of games pitched in 2021
Brad Brach (36)
Archie Bradley (29)
Chris Devenski (31)
Rafael Dolis (34)
Jeurys Familia (32)
Yimi Garcia (31)
Mychal Givens (32)
Kendall Graveman (31)
Jesse Hahn (32)
Greg Holland (36)
Daniel Hudson (35)
Raisel Iglesias (32)
Kenley Jansen (34)
Pierce Johnson (31) — $3MM club option ($1MM buyout)
Joe Kelly (34) — $12MM club option ($4MM buyout)
Craig Kimbrel (34) — $16MM club option ($1MM buyout)
Corey Knebel (29)
Michael Lorenzen (30)
Chris Martin (36)
Hector Neris (33)
Adam Ottavino (36)
Hansel Robles (31)
Joe Smith (38)
Craig Stammen ($38) — $4MM club option ($1MM buyout)
Josh Tomlin (37) — $1.25MM club option ($250K buyout)
Dan Winkler (32)
Shun Yamaguchi (34)
Kirby Yates (35)

Left-Handed Relievers

Alex Claudio (30)
Ross Detwiler (36)
Jake Diekman (35) — $4MM club option ($750K buyout)
Kwang-Hyun Kim (33)
Andrew Miller (37)
Adam Morgan (32)
Daniel Norris (29)
Brooks Raley (34)
Joely Rodriguez (30) — $3MM club option ($500K buyout)

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2021-22 MLB Free Agents MLBTR Originals

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Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox

By Tim Dierkes | November 16, 2020 at 10:48am CDT

Will the White Sox move past the black eye of the Tony La Russa hiring and upgrade the team in a bid for the first back-to-back playoff appearances in franchise history?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Yasmani Grandal, C: Three years, $54.75MM
  • Dallas Keuchel, SP: Two years, $37.5MM.  Includes $20MM club/vesting option for 2023
  • Jose Abreu, 1B: Two years, $34MM
  • Tim Anderson, SS: Two years, $17.75MM.  Includes $12.5MM club option for 2023 and $14MM club option for 2024
  • Leury Garcia, IF/OF: One year, $3.5MM
  • Eloy Jimenez, LF: Four years, $35.5MM.  Includes $16.5MM club option for 2025 and $18.5MM club option for 2026
  • Yoan Moncada, 3B: Four years, $65MM.  Includes $25MM club option for 2025
  • Luis Robert, CF: Five years, $48.5MM.  Includes $20MM club options for 2026 and ’27
  • Aaron Bummer, RP: Four years, $15MM.  Includes $7.25MM club option for 2025 and $7.5MM club option for 2026

Arbitration Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

  • Adam Engel, OF: $1.0MM
  • Jace Fry, RP: $800K
  • Lucas Giolito, SP: $2.5MM
  • Reynaldo Lopez, SP: $1.7MM
  • Evan Marshall, RP: $1.4MM
  • Nomar Mazara, RF: $5.7MM
  • Carlos Rodon, SP/RP: $4.5MM
  • Non-tender candidates: Rodon, Mazara, Lopez

Option Decisions

  • Exercised $3.5MM club option on IF Leury Garcia
  • Declined $12MM club option on DH Edwin Encarnacion
  • Declined $7MM club option on SP Gio Gonzalez

Free Agents

  • Edwin Encarnacion, James McCann, Alex Colome, Gio Gonzalez, Steve Cishek, Ross Detwiler, Jarrod Dyson

The rebuild is officially over.  The White Sox reached the playoffs this year for the first time since 2008, falling to the A’s in the three-game Wild Card series.  Eleven days later, the team fired manager Rick Renteria and longtime pitching coach Don Cooper.  When GM Rick Hahn told reporters the ideal managerial candidate would have “recent October experience with a championship organization,” the club initially seemed primed to hire A.J. Hinch or Alex Cora.

Instead, it became clear that White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf had his heart set on righting what he saw as a 34-year-old wrong, bringing back Tony La Russa as manager.  La Russa began his managerial career with the White Sox in 1979 and was fired in 1986, after which he achieved legendary status and Hall of Fame induction for his work at the helm of the A’s and Cardinals.  La Russa had retired from managing after his 2011 Cardinals won it all, taking on front office roles for the Diamondbacks, Red Sox, and Angels.  So much for “recent” October experience.  The White Sox didn’t interview Hinch or Cora; their second choice was former Giants and Padres skipper Bruce Bochy, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan said it well regarding the hire: “He inherits a team brimming with young, dynamic talent — a team that, in many ways, represents a new epoch of baseball whose principles and priorities run antithetical to La Russa’s.”  I still felt that the talented White Sox players would be able to overcome that apparent mismatch.  But then came news of La Russa’s February DUI arrest, of which the White Sox were aware before hiring him.  La Russa already had a 2007 DUI on his record.  To this point, a Twitter campaign from some White Sox fans has not convinced La Russa to step down or Reinsdorf to move on.  Reinsdorf hasn’t commented on the matter, and the team’s statement was sparse.  The entire situation is a black eye for the team of Reinsdorf’s doing, but he doesn’t seem to care.  Perhaps one day the White Sox will run through a normal managerial hiring process.

At any rate, hiring La Russa certainly suggests the team will take further steps to improve in the short-term after an active 2019-20 offseason and successful shortened 2020 campaign.  So, what does the team need?  Right field stands out, after Nomar Mazara struggled in his 149 plate appearances.  Though he doesn’t turn 26 until April, Mazara will likely be non-tendered.  The best option in free agency is George Springer, who will likely command a contract in excess of $100MM even in a depressed market.  Even for a lineup that already skews right-handed, Springer would be a huge addition for the White Sox as a 31-year-old five-WAR type player.  And there’s hardly a concern with Springer hitting right-handed pitching, against which he has a 139 wRC+ since 2018.  But with Reinsdorf on record claiming losses “in the nine figures,” will he really go for one of the winter’s most expensive free agents?

There are more affordable options, of course, such as signing Joc Pederson to platoon with Adam Engel in right field.  Hahn could also try the trade market, which could include Joey Gallo and Wil Myers.  The Sox don’t seem to be in a position to acquire a bounceback candidate, but Gregory Polanco, Hunter Renfroe, and Dexter Fowler likely wouldn’t be hard to pry loose.  Adam Eaton is a free agent, but there’s a lot of history there and not much upside.  The White Sox could also look to get creative and acquire a player who hasn’t played much or any right field, such as Andrew Benintendi, Marcell Ozuna, Tommy Pham, Michael Brantley, Brett Gardner, Jackie Bradley Jr., Jurickson Profar, or Mark Canha.  In some cases it would result in shaky corner outfield defense, but at least they have a Gold Glove center fielder in Luis Robert.

With 2019 third overall pick Andrew Vaughn basically penciled into a first base/DH rotation with Jose Abreu, right field seems the only clear place for the White Sox to upgrade on the position player side.  Certainly the team could hold off for most of 2021 on Vaughn, who has yet to see Double-A pitching, but the team’s brass seems to think he’s close to ready after spending 2020 at the team’s alternate site.  If they were to wait with Vaughn, perhaps players like Nelson Cruz or Michael Brantley would become more viable.

What about the starting rotation?  As James Fegan of The Athletic put it, “October revealed a need for upgrades at the top, not the back end,” after the team was forced to try a bullpen game in Game 3 of the Wild Card series.  At the top end of the market sits Trevor Bauer, though he’d likely require most of the team’s available payroll space.  There’s also the question of whether Bauer would be impressed with La Russa, but the better question might be how he’d gel with new pitching coach Ethan Katz.  Katz was Lucas Giolito’s pitching coach in high school and had a hand in his turnaround in 2019.  If the White Sox are willing to spend the money and let Bauer pitch every fourth day, they’d certainly have a shot.

If the White Sox consider Bauer out of their price range, they could look at a collection of free agent starters who could slot into their hypothetical playoff rotation: James Paxton, Corey Kluber, Chris Archer, and Charlie Morton.  The first three have to prove they’re healthy, while Morton may have geographical preferences that don’t include Chicago.  A market limited on October-worthy starters may require considering lower-ceiling free agents like Masahiro Tanaka, or hitting the trade market in pursuit of players like Lance Lynn or German Marquez.  The White Sox don’t necessarily need to make a major move in the rotation, with Giolito, Dallas Keuchel, Dylan Cease, and Dane Dunning penciled in and Michael Kopech expected to rejoin the team in spring training.

Like just about any playoff hopeful, the White Sox could look to augment their bullpen.  With Colome hitting free agency, the team has several interesting young arms but lacks veteran depth.  Overall, the White Sox could have over $30MM to work with if they maintain last year’s payroll, but that’s no sure thing.

Thus far, the White Sox have done an excellent job locking up their core pieces to position themselves for sustained success.  They have four more years of control of Anderson, and at least five of Robert, Moncada, Jimenez, Vaughn, and Nick Madrigal.  On the pitching side, ace Lucas Giolito is under control through 2023 as an arbitration eligible player.  Giolito is primed for his first multi-million dollar payday in his first trip through arbitration this winter, though there’s great uncertainty as to how salaries will be affected by the 60-game season.  I have a feeling the White Sox would jump at something close to Aaron Nola’s four-year, $45MM contract.

Aside from the La Russa hire, the White Sox could hardly be in a better position heading into 2021.  The club would be well-served to bring in a few more impact players this winter, especially with the majority of teams expected to be conservative.

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2020-21 Offseason Outlook Chicago White Sox MLBTR Originals

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Seeking Development Help For Contest Leaderboard

By Tim Dierkes | November 10, 2020 at 7:41pm CDT

We’ll be taking reader submissions beginning Monday for our MLB Free Agent Prediction Contest.  Once all the entries are in, we like to put up a leaderboard on the site, which gets updated as players sign with teams.

I’m seeking someone to build a leaderboard from scratch, very similar to this one from last year.  On the backend, I’ll need a place to list the 50 contest free agents, update with the correct teams after each one signs, and import around 7,000 contest entries from Google Forms.  The front end will look and function exactly like this.

If you’re interested in tackling this paid project, please send an email to mlbtrhelp@gmail.com explaining your qualifications.

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