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The Opener: Magic Numbers, Steele, Marlins

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As the regular season winds down, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day:

1. Magic Numbers down to one:

It’s “Magic Number” season in baseball, as several clubs around the league look to clinch postseason berths and/or division crowns in the waning days of the 2024 season. Heading into play Wednesday, each of the Brewers, Phillies and Yankees have a magic number of 1. Two of those clubs, the Brewers and Phillies, square off against each other. Milwaukee sends Freddy Peralta (3.75 ERA) to the mound opposite longtime Phillies star Aaron Nola (3.52 ERA) in what should be a well-pitched matchup. Even though the two teams are facing one another, they can still both clinch playoff appearances tonight. The Brewers would clinch their division either by topping the Phillies or if the Cubs lose to the visiting A’s in today’s early game. Meanwhile, the Phils would clinch a postseason berth if they best the Brewers or if the Braves drop their road game against the Reds. As for the Yankees, they’ll send lefty Nestor Cortes (3.90 ERA) to the mound opposite Mariners righty Bryce Miller (3.12 ERA) as they look to punch their own ticket to October baseball.

2. Steele to return to the mound:

Cubs left-hander Justin Steele went on the injured list earlier this month with an injury scare that was eventually diagnosed as elbow flexor tendonitis. At the time, it was unclear if Steele would be healthy enough to return to action this year. Since then, he’s been symptom-free and even threw a 40-pitch bullpen session over the weekend, opening the door to a potential return. That possibility will become a reality today, as the lefty figures to take the mound in Chicago opposite A’s rookie Brady Basso (1.23 ERA in two starts) at 1:20pm local time.

Steele has been limited to just 22 starts between his most recent trip to the IL and a hamstring strain that occurred on Opening Day, but when healthy enough to take the mound he’s turned in his third consecutive excellent campaign with a 3.09 ERA (130 ERA+) and 3.13 FIP in 128 innings. The Cubs will need to clear a spot on the active roster before today’s game.

3. Marlins 40-man move incoming:

Steele isn’t the only left-handed starter returning from the injured list today. Marlins southpaw Ryan Weathers is scheduled to start today’s game against the Dodgers, facing L.A. rookie Landon Knack (3.70 ERA in ten starts) at 6:40pm local time this evening. Weathers, 24, posted a solid 3.55 ERA and 3.93 FIP in 13 starts with the Marlins earlier this year but has been on the injured list since June due to a finger strain.

The seventh overall pick of the 2018 draft was transferred to the 60-day IL in July, meaning the Marlins will need to clear both active and 40-man roster space prior to this evening’s game. With less than two weeks to go in the regular season, it’s possible the club could simply transfer an injured player who won’t return this year to the 60-day IL in Weathers’ place. Vidal Brujan, Derek Hill, Max Meyer, Calvin Faucher and John McMillon are all on the 10-day or 15-day injured list at the moment.

The Opener: Albies, Yankees, Mariners, Eovaldi, MLBTR Chat

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As the home stretch of the regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Albies to begin rehab assignment:

The Braves have dealt with plenty of injuries throughout the season, ranging from the early losses of Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuna Jr. to the more recent absence of Austin Riley. They’re finally on the cusp of getting a key player back, however, as manager Brian Snitker told reporters (including MLB.com’s Mark Bowman) that second baseman Ozzie Albies is nearing a return to action after two months on the shelf due to a wrist fracture. The 27-year-old is set to begin a short rehab assignment today and will be activated Friday against the Marlins if all goes well.

Albies, a switch-hitter, still feels discomfort when swinging left-handed and will have to exclusively swing right-handed upon returning. Fortunately, Albies has always hit much better when batting righty throughout his career, and Snitker confirmed that he’ll be able to play second base during his rehab assignment. Whit Merrifield, who was signed shortly after Albies’ injury and has performed well as the club’s second baseman in his absence, will now be an option in left field and at third base, where fellow in-season acquisitions Ramon Laureano and Gio Urshela currently reside.

2. Series Preview: Yankees @ Mariners

The Yankees are headed out west today to take on the Mariners in a three-game set that will have significant implications on the AL playoff picture. The Yankees currently hold a three-game lead over the Orioles in the AL East, and while the loser of that duel will also make the postseason as a Wild Card team, the division crown is still noteworthy as it will likely be tied to a bye through the Wild Card round. Meanwhile, the Mariners are not currently in playoff position but are just two games out of the final AL Wild Card spot. FanGraphs still gives them a shot at the postseason with 10.7% odds.

In order to keep those hopes alive, the Mariners will have to take down the Yankees in this series, which begins at 6:40pm local time tonight. Righty Luis Gil (3.18 ERA) is set to take the mound for the Yankees opposite 24-year-old Bryan Woo (2.38 ERA). The next day, lefty Nestor Cortes (3.90 ERA) is scheduled to take on right-hander Bryce Miller (3.18 ERA). The series wraps up with right-hander Clarke Schmidt (2.41 ERA in 13 starts) taking on Logan Gilbert (3.24 ERA) on Thursday.

3. Eovaldi option watch:

As laid out by MLBTR’s Steve Adams yesterday, Rangers right-hander Nathan Eovaldi is just four innings shy of triggering a vesting player option valued at $20MM. He’s pitched four or more innings in 24 of his 26 starts this season, so it’s extremely likely that Eovaldi will see that option vest today. The 34-year-old (35 in February) will still have the right to turn down that player option and once again test free agency, but it provides some insurance in the event that Eovaldi suffers an injury in the season’s final weeks — or perhaps simply an easy means of resolving his offseason status early if the Texas native is happy with the Rangers and does not wish to go through free agency again. Eovaldi should have no problem topping that $20MM guarantee on the market, however. He’s pitched to a 3.67 ERA in 152 frames this season and touts a combined 3.65 ERA, 23.7% strikeout rate, 7% walk rate and 49.8% grounder rate in 296 frames over his two seasons as a Ranger.

4. MLBTR Chat:

The postseason is almost upon us, and clubs have begun to get eliminated as the remaining contenders make their final pushes towards the playoffs. In the AL, the Tigers and Mariners are nipping at the heels of the Twins for the final AL Wild Card spot. In the NL, the Diamondbacks, Mets, and Braves are in locked in a close race to take the final two Wild Card spots behind San Diego. If you’re wondering about your team’s hopes of a World Series championship this fall or how your club could approach the coming offseason, MLBTR’s Steve Adams is holding a live chat with readers at 1pm CT today. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

Rockies Activate Antonio Senzatela

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September 16: The Rockies have made it official, with Senzatela reinstated and right-hander Jake Bird optioned as the corresponding move.

September 14: The Rockies are planning to activate right-hander Antonio Senzatela from the 60-day IL for his season debut on Monday against the Diamondbacks, as noted by Manny Randhawa of MLB.com. The Rockies’ 40-man roster currently stands at 39, meaning a corresponding 40-man move will only be necessary to activate Senzatela if the vacancy is filled before his return.

The 29-year-old righty is poised to suit up for his eighth season in the big leagues, all of which have been spent in the Rockies organization. Senzatela was limited to just two starts in 2023 due to an elbow sprain before ultimately undergoing Tommy John surgery last July. Prior to that, the righty had emerged as one of the club’s better pitchers since a breakout 2020 season where he posted a 3.44 ERA in 12 starts. In 59 starts from 2020 to 2022, Senzatela pitched to a solid 4.38 ERA that’s actually 10% better than league average by ERA+, a stat that adjusts for park factors to account for the inflated offensive environment at Coors Field.

What’s more, the righty actually sported an even stronger 3.96 FIP over that same time frame. While he struck out just 14.4% of batters faced over those three seasons, Senzatela’s ability to limit walks to a clip of just 5.3% and keep the ball on the ground (50.6% grounder rate) to limit home runs allowed him to post solid peripherals that gave the Rockies enough confidence to extend him following the 2021 season on a five-year deal worth $50.5MM that includes a club option for the 2027 season. Unfortunately, the contract hasn’t exactly gone well to this point as Senzatela’s 2022 season was cut short by an ACL tear, and his last two campaigns have been more or less wiped out by Tommy John surgery and the subsequent rehab process.

Despite the right-hander now being set to make less than 25 starts over the first three years of the contract, however, it’s not hard to imagine him being a valuable piece for the Rockies headed into 2025. After all, Senzatela’s grounder-heavy game plays quite well at elevation and it’s not hard to imagine a rotation that pairs him with some combination of German Marquez, Cal Quantrill, Kyle Freeland, Ryan Feltner, and Austin Gomber finding some level of success, at least by the standards of a Rockies franchise that has struggled to find consistent pitching results even in its most competitive years. With a rare rotation surplus in Colorado and other young arms like prospect Carson Palmquist currently at the Triple-A level, it’s even possible to imagine the Rockies having enough arms available for their 2025 rotation that they could listen to trade offers involving a pitcher like Quantrill or Gomber, as they reportedly did prior to this summer’s trade deadline.

As the Rockies head towards the finish line of what could be their second consecutive 100-loss campaign, dealing an arm from the rotation could allow them to address other areas of the roster and supplement the club’s core pieces like Ryan McMahon, Brenton Doyle, and Ezequiel Tovar on the positional side. For now, though, Senzatela and the Rockies figure to focus on getting the right-hander some starts at the big league level down the stretch as he looks to shake off the rust and head into his first healthy offseason since he signed the aforementioned extension.

The Opener: AL Central, Phillies, Brewers, Refsnyder

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With less than two weeks to go in the regular season, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. AL Central showdowns:

The races for the American League Central and the American League Wild Card slots are heavily intertwined, and the first portion of this week will be pivotal in both. The Twins, who’ve been reeling of late and played at disappointing 7-13 pace over their past 20 games, will head to Cleveland for a four-game set against the division-leading Guardians. Cleveland is up four games on the Royals and 6.5 games on the Twins, so barring a sweep by Minnesota, the series isn’t likely to wildly alter the complexion of the division race.

That said, the Twins hold the third Wild Card spot in the AL at present. Minnesota is 2.5 games behind the Royals for the second Wild Card position, with the surging Tigers (13-7 in their past 20) suddenly just 2.5 games out of the final postseason spot. As fate would have it, the Tigers are in Kansas City for a three-game set that kicks off tonight. The top four teams in the AL Central are all either in possession of a playoff spot (Cleveland, K.C., Minnesota) or within 2.5 games of claiming one (Detroit). This pair of series should have massive playoff implications, both in terms of who qualifies and how the seeding plays out.

The Twins are set to send Pablo Lopez, Zebby Matthews, Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson to the mound in Cleveland, where they’ll be respectively countered by Matthew Boyd, Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee and Joey Cantillo. In Kansas City, the three games will feature matchups of a TBD Tigers starter versus Seth Lugo; Casey Mize versus Cole Ragans; and Tarik Skubal versus Alec Marsh.

2. Series Preview: Phillies @ Brewers

A preview of a potential postseason series is set to begin today when the Phillies head to Milwaukee for a three-game set against the Brewers. The two clubs lead their respective divisions by all but insurmountable margins at this point, with the Phillies seeming poised to cruise into the playoffs with a bye through the Wild Card series and the Brewers currently sitting two games back of the Dodgers for the opportunity to do the same.

The series begins at 6:40pm local time this evening with lefty Ranger Suarez (3.05 ERA) on the mound for Philly against Brewers hurler Aaron Civale, who has pitched to a 4.57 ERA overall this year but boasts a tidy 3.84 figure in 11 starts since joining the club in July. Phillies ace Zack Wheeler (2.60 ERA) will be on the mound for Game 2 opposite fellow mid-season acquisition Frankie Montas, who sports a 4.49 ERA over all this year but has posted a 3.40 ERA in eight starts with the Brewers. The series wraps up on Monday with righty Aaron Nola (3.62 ERA) squaring off against Brewers staff ace Freddy Peralta (3.75 ERA).

3. Refsnyder nursing wrist injury:

The Red Sox have been without outfielder Rob Refsnyder since he was scratched from the lineup on Friday, and as noted by Chris Cotillo of MassLive there remains a distinct possibility that he could wind up requiring a trip to the injured list due to the issue. Manager Alex Cora told reporters (including Cotillo) that while they hope that today’s day off will help to alleviate the soreness, the 33-year-old could go on the injured list if he isn’t feeling up to playing during the series against the Rays that starts tomorrow.

An injury to Refsnyder could be something of a final blow to a Red Sox club that, with a 75-75 record and playoff odds of just 2.6% per Fangraphs need things to go just about perfectly in order to squeeze into the playoffs. Looking ahead to 2025, Boston holds a $2MM club option of Refsnyder’s services for next year. His injury won’t impact what should be an easy decision to exercise that option, given the fact that the journeyman has slashed an excellent .284/.361/.472 with 11 homers in 306 trips to the plate this year.

Diamondbacks Place Paul Sewald On 15-Day IL, Activate Gabriel Moreno

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The Diamondbacks announced this afternoon that they’ve placed right-hander Paul Sewald on the 15-day injured list with discomfort in his neck, retroactive to September 12. In a corresponding move, catcher Gabriel Moreno was activated from the 10-day injured list. The news comes as something of a surprise, particularly given the fact that Arizona announced that they’ve designated right-hander Dylan Floro for assignment to make room for Blake Walston on the club’s active roster less than two hours before making this second series of roster moves.

Sewald, 34, has pitched just once since September 2 and has struggled in recent weeks, with a 7.71 ERA and 4.89 FIP in seven innings of work since August 19. Those struggles when on the mound and his extended stretches without pitching at all could be explained to an extent by the injury, but if Sewald has been hurt it’s surprising that the Diamondbacks have kept him on the roster rather than opening a spot in their bullpen for a fresh arm. Sewald will be eligible to return before the end of the regular season due to the back-dated nature of his placement on the IL, although no timetable for his return has been announced at this point.

Acquired from the Mariners at the trade deadline last year, Sewald was among the most coveted closers in the game at the time with a 2.88 ERA and 3.34 FIP in 171 2/3 innings of work for the Mariners since he landed with the club prior to the 2021 season. Things haven’t gone well for him since moving to the desert, however, as he walked 12.5% of batters faced down the stretch with Arizona last year and has two blow-up outings in the World Series against the Rangers, although those rough appearances were preceded by eight dominant outings throughout the postseason prior to that. Headed into 2024, Sewald retained his role as closer for the Diamondbacks and looked dominant early in the year before eventually losing that distinction back in August after a brutal month of July where he surrendered 12 runs in ten innings of work across 12 appearances.

Given Sewald’s deep struggles in the second half this year and his apparent injury troubles, it’s not clear where he stands in the Arizona bullpen as the club looks ahead towards what they hope will be their second consecutive playoff push. A return to form in the postseason would be a huge boost for not only the Diamondbacks but also Sewald’s own fortunes, as the 34-year-old is scheduled to reach free agency this winter in a free agent class that figures to be fairly deep in terms of relievers with late-inning experience.

In Sewald’s place, Moreno returns to the roster a bit earlier than expected. The youngster was described earlier this weekend as “very close” to returning alongside Lourdes Gurriel Jr. but seemed likely to be targeting a return to action later this week. With the 24-year-old now seemingly ready to step back into his regular role behind the plate, the Diamondbacks will now get to utilize his two-way talent rather than having to choose between a strong defender with lackluster hitting ability in Jose Herrera and an impressive bat with defensive question marks behind the plate in Adrian Del Castillo. Moreno was in the midst of a fine season prior to his injury, slashing .262/.344/.385 slash line with a 105 wRC+ in 314 trips to the plate this year.

Diamondbacks Designate Dylan Floro For Assignment

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The Diamondbacks announced today that they’ve designated right-hander Dylan Floro for assignment. The move makes room on the active roster for left-hander Blake Walston, who was recalled from Triple-A. Arizona’s 40-man roster stands at 39.

Floro, 33, signed a one-year deal with the Nationals over the offseason but was dealt to the Diamondbacks in a buzzer-beater deal just before this year’s trade deadline in exchange for first baseman Andres Chaparro. At the time of the deal, Floro had gotten excellent results with a 2.06 ERA and a 2.64 FIP in 52 1/3 innings of work despite a lackluster 19.6% strikeout rate. That hasn’t continued in Arizona, as Floro’s time with the Diamondbacks has been nothing short of a disaster. The righty has surrendered a 9.37 ERA in 16 1/3 innings of work, and while his 6.30 FIP over that same timeframe indicates some level of positive regression in the future, even that lower figure would still be ghastly production for the right-hander.

Floro will be either released or placed on waivers in the coming days, though if the right-hander is waived he’ll surely clear waivers with so little time left in the regular season. Should he clear waivers, he’ll have the opportunity to either accept an outright assignment to the minors as non-roster depth for what’s left of the season or else elect free agency and get a head start on searching for a deal for the 2025 season with a new club. Disastrous as his time in Arizona was, the right-hander still boasts a 3.80 ERA and 3.51 FIP overall this season. Those figures should be good enough to earn him some level of interest on the open market, though perhaps only on a minor league deal given his rough second half.

As for Walston, the 23-year-old rookie made his big league debut with the Diamondbacks back in May. He’s made three appearances for Arizona since then, two of which were starts. In all, he has a 2.84 ERA and 4.28 FIP in 12 2/3 innings of work, though that comes with nearly as many walks (9) as strikeouts (11) and three additional hit batsmen. With Ryne Nelson having recently been placed on the injured list, the addition of Walston to the roster should give the club another multi-inning relief option from the left side now that Jordan Montgomery is seemingly slated to re-enter the rotation in Nelson’s place.

Angels Designate Nick Robertson For Assignment

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The Angels announced a series of roster moves today, highlighted by the return of right-hander Carson Fulmer from the 15-day injured list. To make room for Fulmer on the active roster, left-hander Samuel Aldegheri was placed on the 15-day IL retroactive to September 14 with a blister on his left middle finger. Meanwhile, outfielder Bryce Teodosio was placed on the 10-day injured list with a fractured right middle finger. Outfielder Gustavo Campero has his contract selected to replace Teodosio on the roster, and right-hander Nick Robertson was designated for assignment to make room for Campero on the 40-man roster. Additionally, manager Ron Washington told reporters (including Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register) that right-hander Ben Joyce will not pitch again in 2024 due to shoulder inflammation.

Fulmer, 30, is a former top ten overall pick in the draft but has never quite managed to stick in the big leagues. After struggling through four seasons with the White Sox to a 6.56 ERA in 94 2/3 innings of work across 44 appearances (15 starts). Since then, he’s bounced between the Tigers, Orioles, Reds, and Angels organizations but has never gotten an extended shot in the majors until this year, when the Halos began using him as a swing man. He’s performed solidly in the role, with a 4.15 ERA (103 ERA+) and 4.56 FIP in 80 1/3 innings split between eight starts and 24 relief outings. The right-hander went on the IL at the end of August with elbow inflammation, but now will get the opportunity to finish the year strong and prove himself healthy ahead of the offseason, when he’ll be eligible for arbitration for the first time in his career.

Making room for Fulmer on the roster is Aldegheri, who will celebrate his 23rd birthday later this week. The youngster will be eligible to return to the big league roster in time for the final game of the regular season if the club wants to see the lefty make one more start before the offseason, though it’s also possible he’s made his last appearance of the 2024 campaign. Aldegheri has made three starts for Anaheim this year after being acquired from the Phillies in the Carlos Estevez trade back in July, though this stint in the big leagues hasn’t gone especially well as he’s surrendered a 4.85 ERA with a 6.40 FIP in 13 frames since being promoted to the majors.

Of course, Aldegheri’s struggles come with the context of the youngster being just 22 years old and having been called up directly from Double-A not long after changing organizations for the first time in his career, so it’s not necessarily shocking the the southpaw has struggled. Looking ahead to 2025, he’ll surely figure into the club’s big league pitching staff in at least some capacity, though it’s not yet clear what his role will be at this point. Washington told reporters (including Fletcher) today that lefty Jose Suarez will replace Aldgheri in the rotation for the time being.

Joining Aldgheri on the IL is Teodosio, a 25-year-old rookie who signed with the club back in 2021 as an undrafted free agent. In 114 games at the Triple-A level this season, Teodosio has slashed .276/.339/.418 with an 89 wRC+ with an excellent 40-for-44 record on the basepaths. Teodosio got the call to the majors last week when Jo Adell and Kevin Pillar were placed on the injured list but struggled in his first taste of big league action, going 1-for-12 with five strikeouts in five games. Teodosio will be replaced on the roster by Campero, a 26-year-old who converted to the outfield after beginning his pro career as a catcher. He’s split his 2024 campaign between the Double- and Triple-A levels, with a .279/.392/.472 slash line in 107 games this year. He’s now set to join Mickey Moniak, Taylor Ward, and Jordyn Adams in the club’s outfield mix going forward.

Robertson departs to make room for Campero on the 40-man roster, just a month after he was claimed off waivers from the Cardinals. The 26-year-old is a product of the Dodgers organization who made his big league debut with the club last year but struggled to a 6.04 ERA in 22 1/3 innings of work between the Dodgers and Red Sox organizations, although he did show some signs of promise with a 3.88 FIP and a 24.5% strikeout rate. Robertson was dealt by the Red Sox to the Cardinals over the winter in the deal that brought Tyler O’Neill to Boston but ultimately appeared in just eight games for St. Louis with a decent 4.38 ERA and 4.55 FIP in 12 1/3 frames. In addition to his time in the majors this year, Robertson has struggled badly in 34 2/3 innings of work at Triple-A this year between the Cardinals and Angels organizations with a 7.27 ERA in 31 appearances.

As for Joyce, the right-hander has been on the 15-day IL for a few days now due to a shoulder issue that the club described yesterday as an impingement (as noted by MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger). Joyce was scheduled to undergo an MRI this weekend and while the results came back showing only inflammation today (as noted by Fletcher), Washington suggested that the hard-throwing righty was “too important” to the club’s long-term plans to risk further injury in the final weeks of a season where the club has been eliminated from playoff contention. Joyce wraps up his 2024 campaign with a sterling 2.08 ERA and 3.20 FIP in 34 2/3 innings and figures to be a key piece of the club’s late-inning mix in 2025.

Yankees Release Victor Gonzalez

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The Yankees have released left-hander Victor Gonzalez, as noted by MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch. Gonzalez has been pitching for the club’s Triple-A affiliate since he was outrighted to the minor leagues back in June.

The 28-year-old southpaw made his pro debut with the Dodgers back in 2013 but didn’t make it to the majors until the shortened 2020 season. He excelled for the club in 20 1/3 innings of work across 15 games that year, posting an excellent 1.33 ERA and 1.67 FIP while striking out 28.8% of his opponents. That small-sample performance, along with a 2.70 ERA during the club’s World Series run that October, earned Gonzalez a spot in the club’s bullpen headed into the 2021 season. While the lefty’s first full 162-game season in the big leagues didn’t go quite as well as his rookie year during the shortened season, he still held his own with a solid 3.57 ERA and a 4.27 FIP in 44 games with L.A.

Unfortunately, injury would stop Gonzalez from attempting to repeat that success in 2022, as he was shelved by elbow debridement surgery early in the year and wound up missing the entire big league season. He returned to the majors in 2023 with the Dodgers but posted somewhat middling results, with a 4.01 ERA in 33 2/3 innings of work despite a solid 3.40 FIP and a 22.2% strikeout rate. That mediocre season left the southpaw overtaken on the club’s depth chart by Alex Vesia, opening the door for the Dodgers to deal Gonzalez over the offseason. They did just that come December, when he was shipped from L.A. to the Bronx alongside Jorbit Vivas for Trey Sweeney, the latter of whom would go on to be dealt to Detroit in exchange for Jack Flaherty over the summer.

Now outside of the Dodgers organization for the first time in his career, Gonzalez made the Opening Day roster with the Yankees a member of their bullpen. While he put up solid results for the club across 27 games with a 3.86 ERA in 23 1/3 frames, Gonzalez’s peripherals were quite concerning during his time in New York. After posting a solid 23.2% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate in his three years with the Dodgers, Gonzalez actually walked more batters (13.4%) than he struck out (11.3%) in New York. While the grounder specialist continued to keep the ball on the ground at a 55.1% clip, his .149 BABIP in the Bronx was obviously unsustainable and left him with ghastly peripherals including a 5.96 FIP and 5.74 SIERA.

Those peripheral numbers clearly concerned the Yankees enough to designate him for assignment, and other clubs enough that he ultimately went unclaimed on waivers. Since then, Gonzalez has been pitching for the club’s Scranton/Wilkes-Barre affiliate, but his time in Triple-A has not gone especially well with a 4.50 ERA in 22 innings of work. Now headed for the open market for the first time in his career, Gonzalez will look ahead to the 2025 season in hopes of finding a club who can help him get his career back on track.

Latest On Cody Bellinger

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A year ago, Cubs center fielder Cody Bellinger was putting the finishing touches on a fantastic rebound campaign that saw him place in the top ten of NL MVP voting and earn his second career Silver Slugger award. On the heels of back-to-back disastrous campaigns with the Dodgers in 2021 and ’22 that led to him being non-tendered, Bellinger took a one-year deal with Chicago and slashed an excellent .307/.356/.525 (136 wRC+) with 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases, setting him up for what seemed sure to be a significant payday in free agency over the winter.

That, of course, did not come to pass. Bellinger was one of several free agents who found himself struggling to find a deal that met expectations, and ultimately returned to the Cubs on a three-year, $80MM deal that included opt-outs after each season. The 29-year-old’s second season in Chicago hasn’t quite lived up to his first, as he’s posted a .269/.332/.468 (114 wRC+) slash line in 518 trips to the plate while his elevated .319 BABIP has fallen to a .287 figure that’s more in line with his career norms and his power production has dipped to more closely match his batted ball metrics.

As Bellinger and his agent, Scott Boras, ponder whether or not to exercise his upcoming opt-out opportunity this November, it’s fair to wonder if there’s any reason for him to consider opting out coming off a worse offensive season than his previous platform year, which already resulted in a relative disappointment on the open market. Indeed, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote this morning that Bellinger is “fully expected” to remain with the Cubs rather than exercising his opt-out a returning to free agency this winter. Despite those expectations, however, the possibility that Bellinger could instead look to hit the open market for the third consecutive offseason cannot be overlooked.

After all, Bellinger’s offensive numbers this season, while worse than last year, are still well above league average. More importantly, however, his 2024 production is generally backed up by his peripheral numbers and appears likely to be sustainable for the 29-year-old. That’s thanks in part to the outfielder setting a career-best for strikeout rate for the second consecutive season this year, punching out at a 15.1% clip that’s good for 16th-best in the majors this year, just ahead of Bobby Witt Jr. and Jurickson Profar.

That improved combination of contact and discipline at the plate has helped to make up for the downturn in power production Bellinger has experienced this year, and is still more than enough to make Bellinger one of the top bats at his position in the majors. Among qualified center fielders this year, Bellinger’s aforementioned 114 wRC+ this year ranks seventh in the majors while his .332 on-base percentage is tied with Jazz Chisholm Jr. for fourth behind only AL MVP candidates Aaron Judge and Jarren Duran. Bellinger’s ability to play a quality center field while also delivering above average offense would make him stand out in a free agent class that without him would have Harrison Bader, who has hit just .244/.287/.390 (91 wRC+) in 407 trips to the plate with the Mets this year, as the top player available.

Given the fact that Bellinger also has an opt out following the 2025 season, it’s easy to imagine that he might simply be better off sticking with the Cubs, collecting a $27.5MM salary next year, and then returning to free agency prior to the 2026 season, when he would be leaving just $20MM on the table rather than the $50MM he’d forgo by opting out this year. While it’s true that a dominant offensive season from Bellinger could boost his profile, he’d also be marketing his age-30 campaign as opposed to his age-29 season and entering free agency on the wrong side of 30 can significantly depress a player’s earning potential. What’s more, he’d face much more competition in center field next year: The 2025-26 free agent class currently projects to include other notable center field options like Cedric Mullins, Willi Castro, and Trent Grisham, to say nothing of the possibility that Bader signs a one-year deal and returns to the open market himself next winter.

Bellinger’s status among free agency’s top center fielders would be diminished further by the fact that, he would almost assuredly not be used in center field next year if he were to remain with Chicago. The club’s recently-graduated top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong has already taken over center field on a regular basis in recent weeks, pairing elite defense at the position with nine homers and 27 stolen bases in just 356 trips to the plate this year. The 22-year-old’s 90 wRC+ on the season doesn’t immediately jump off the page, but it’s worth noting that he’s improved drastically over the course of the season with a .269/.319/.477 slash line (119 wRC+) since the start of July.

With Crow-Armstrong all but certain to be the club’s everyday center fielder in 2025, that would likely leave Bellinger forced to move to right field on a daily basis should he play for the Cubs next year, putting more pressure on his bat to produce at a level commensurate with the expectations of the position. Impressive as Bellinger’s offense has been for a center fielder, he ranks just 20th among 49 qualified outfielders this year in terms of wRC+, leaving him as a somewhat middling option offensively for an outfield corner. Without a significant step forward offensively next year, it’s easy to imagine Bellinger leaving money on the table by not exercising his opt-out this year and returning to free agency while he’s still under 30 years old and playing center field on a semi-regular basis.

NL East Notes: Albies, Marte, Bohm

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11:01am: The Mets told reporters (including Anthony DiComo of MLB.com) that Marte’s x-rays came back negative, though he’s out of the lineup due to soreness for today’s game. Meanwhile, the Phillies have activated Bohm from the IL ahead of schedule and will bat him fifth in today’s lineup.

9:15am: The Braves have been without second baseman Ozzie Albies for nearly two months now due to a fractured left wrist, and since then the club has had to rely on veterans like Whit Merrifield and Cavan Biggio who were added following his injury to handle the keystone. While Merrifield has performed admirably in Albies’s absence with a .269/.374/.370 slash line with Atlanta, the club is surely anxious to return the three-time All-Star to the lineup as the Braves fight to remain in a playoff spot with just two weeks to go in the regular season.

When manager Brian Snitker and Albies himself spoke to reporters on Friday about the second baseman’s status, the update was somewhat mixed. Snitker (as relayed by David O’Brien of The Athletic) raised some alarms for Braves fans by saying he wasn’t sure if Albies would play again this year before clarifying that because Albies is still feeling discomfort in his injured wrist only when he bats from the left side, the switch-hitter would be able to return if he was willing to bat from the right side exclusively down the stretch. Per MLB.com’s Mark Bowman, Albies is willing to drop switch-hitting for the time being in order to return to the lineup and hopes to be back sometime next week.

Albies, 27, has batted much better while hitting right-handed throughout his career, including this year where he’s posted a 151 wRC+ against left-handed pitching for the Braves compared to an 80 wRC+ against righties. It’s a similar but less extreme story over his career as a whole, as he’s posted a 146 wRC+ while batting right-handed and a 96 wRC+ while batting left-handed. It won’t be the first time Albies has faced right-handed pitching while as a right-handed batter in his career, although his experience in that regard has been limited to just 14 plate appearances throughout his MLB career. With that being said, that extremely small sample size has seen him find a great deal of success as he’s gone 3-for-11 with three walks and two homers in those handful of trips to the plate.

More from around the NL East…

  • The Mets suffered a bit of an injury scare last night when outfielder Starling Marte was struck by a pitch on the forearm from right-hander Jeff Hoffman in last night’s loss to Philadelphia. Marte remained in the game to run the bases and play the outfield, but manager Carlos Mendoza told reporters (as relayed by SNY) that the veteran was scheduled to undergo “precautionary” x-rays on his forearm to make sure that the 35-year-old hasn’t suffered a more serious injury. Marte has hit a decent .271/.320/.399 in 83 games with the Mets this year but has struggled a bit at the plate since returning from the IL last month, with a lackluster .241/.286/.328 slash line in 17 games since being activated. If Marte misses time, it seems likely that Jesse Winker will slide into a more regular role with the club down the stretch.
  • The Phillies have been without third baseman Alec Bohm since late August due to a strained hand, but it seems that may change in the coming days as manager Rob Thomson recently told reporters (including The Athletic’s Matt Gelb) that Bohm has “shown progress” in his recovery. He’s currently on a rehab assignment at Triple-A but could be back with the big league club as soon as Monday. The return of Bohm to the starting lineup would provide a huge boost for Philadelphia, as with Edmundo Sosa also on the IL (and, coincidentally, joining Bohm on his Triple-A rehab assignment) the big league club has had to rely on a combination of Kody Clemens, Weston Wilson, and Buddy Kennedy at the hot corner in recent weeks. 2024 has been something of a breakout season for Bohm, who has slashed a strong .290/.343/.462 in 131 games this year.

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