Cubs Rumors

Cubs Sign Tyler Chatwood

By Steve Adams | December 7, 2017 at 6:35pm CDT

6:35pm: Jon Heyman of FanRag passes along further details on Chatwood’s deal (Twitter links). He’ll earn $12.5MM apiece in each of the first two years and $13MM in the third.

By operation of an escalator provision, that $13MM salary for 2020 will climb to $15MM if he earns an All-Star nod in each of the next two seasons or receives one Cy Young vote in either of those years. A single Cy Young vote in each of those two seasons would mean a $17MM salary for 2020. And Chatwood will also receive a $500K bonus if he’s traded.

12:29pm: The exact number on the deal is a $38MM guarantee, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports (Twitter link).

12:20pm: The Cubs announced on Thursday that they’ve agreed to a three-year contract with free agent right-hander Tyler Chatwood. The 27-year-old Chatwood, a client of Excel Sports Management, will receive “around $40MM” on the contract, according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link).

Chatwood, who’ll turn 28 in a couple of weeks, was one of the youngest free agents on the market. It’s a significant payday for a player that has yet to experience sustained success at the big league level, but the right-hander was a popular free agent target due to a number of appealing secondary metrics including his velocity, ground-ball rate and spin rate. Chatwood posted a 4.69 ERA with 7.3 K/9 against 4.7 BB/9 in 147 2/3 innings with the Rockies this past season, though in addition to his age and promising peripherals, he’s long performed considerably better away from the hitters’ haven of Coors Field.

In the past two years since returning from a second career Tommy John surgery, Chatwood has started 52 games (in addition to eight relief appearances) and totaled 305 2/3 innings with a 4.27 ERA. Those numbers don’t exactly leap out, but they also feature a dramatic home/road split: a 6.07 ERA and 21 homers allowed at Coors Field and a 2.57 ERA with 14 homers allowed on the road.

As I noted when sorting through some free-agent starters by individual skill set, Chatwood represents the hardest-throwing starter on the market and also boasts the best ground-ball rate and one of the lowest hard-contact rates in free agency. He also posted the 29th-highest spin rate on his four-seam fastball and the fifth-best spin rate on his curveball, per Statcast (min. 100 of each pitch type).

That said, the near-$13MM average annual value of the deal comes in well north of the three-year deal projected by MLBTR when ranking Chatwood 29th on our Top 50 list of the available free agents. The contract serves as a reminder that now, more than ever, teams are willing to look beyond traditional metrics like earned run average and beyond a player’s past performance and instead pay for projected output in the coming years.

The Cubs have a clear need in the rotation with both Jake Arrieta and John Lackey departing via free agency. He’ll slot into the fourth spot in the rotation behind Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks and Jose Quintana at present, though it still seems likely that Chicago will add another arm to help round out the starting five. As a finalist for Nippon Professional Baseball star Shohei Ohtani, the Cubs could find out in the very near future if he’ll be the final piece to that puzzle. If not, they’ll presumably hit the trade market and explore further free agent additions at next week’s Winter Meetings in Orlando.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Market Chatter: Rays, Angels, Kintzler, Feliz

By Jeff Todd | December 6, 2017 at 9:51am CDT

In a series of analytical pieces, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times checks in on the Rays’ offseason in advance of the Winter Meetings. He explains that the club seems to have been slowed, in particular, by the as-yet-unresolved Giancarlo Stanton and Shohei Ohtani situations. Topkin also analyzes the team’s options for dealing a starter, explaining that the team’s history suggests it’s quite likely that at least one arm will be on the move. He pegs Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi as the likeliest candidates to be dealt. He goes on to discuss the potential for a deal involving third baseman Evan Longoria, who’ll attain full no-trade rights early in the 2018 season, though it’s important to note that there is no clear indication as of yet that he’s on the block.

Here are a few more notes on a slow-moving market for players that has only just begun to show signs of thawing:

The Angels are still keeping an eye on the market for corner infielders, Jon Morosi of MLB Network tweets, even as they continue to direct their immediate attention to Otani. Landing the Japanese star would presumably impact the organization’s plans regarding adding hitters, since he’d occupy some at-bats and perhaps force Albert Pujols to spend more time at first base — thus reducing the need for another corner option, particularly with C.J. Cron having been tendered a contract. Still, Carlos Santana remains an option, per the report. It’s worth noting, too, that Pujols is said to be trimming up and leaving the team with some optimism of a bounceback, Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group tweets.
As the Cubs look to bolster their late-inning mix after non-tendering Hector Rondon, they have made contact with Brandon Kintzler’s representatives, according to Morosi (via Twitter). The veteran groundball specialist might conceivably add a new element to the Chicago pen, though Morosi cautions talks have not advanced very far at this point. Kintzler has drawn fairly wide interest after a strong campaign with the Twins and Nationals, over which he turned in 71 1/3 innings of 3.03 ERA pitching.
Right-hander Neftali Feliz is hoping to show he’s healthy and throwing well in a bid to earn a bounceback opportunity, per a report from Chris Cotillo of SB Nation (Twitter link). The 29-year-old, who caught on with the Royals after being cut loose by the Brewers in the middle of the 2017 season, went in for a checkup from Dr. James Andrews but was reportedly cleared of any arm issues. He’s also set to hold an audition for an unnamed team today. Despite his rough results in his 46 innings in the most recent campaign — a 5.48 ERA with 7.2 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 — Feliz showed a typically strong 96.5 mph fastball and 11.6% swinging-strike rate that matches his career average.

NL Notes: Phillies, Minor, Cubs, Braves, Nationals

By Steve Adams | December 4, 2017 at 2:28pm CDT

The Phillies have received formal trade proposals for both Freddy Galvis and Cesar Hernandez, reports Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com, though nothing that has been to the team’s liking. The Phils are very open to the idea of moving either but are also comfortable heading into the 2018 season with both players, even if it crowds the infield picture for the time being. The Phillies figure to have Rhys Hoskins locked in at first base, leaving Hernandez, Galvis and J.P. Crawford as options up the middle. Any of the bunch could presumably see some time at third base over Maikel Franco as well. Eventually, top second base prospect Scott Kingery will likely force his way into the mix as well, however, further muddying the picture.

Shohei Ohtani Plans To Meet With Seven Teams

By Steve Adams | December 4, 2017 at 7:34am CDT

Shohei Ohtani has already narrowed his list of potential landing spots to seven team, according to multiple reporters (with Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM the first to tweet the final seven). Only the Dodgers, Giants, Angels, Padres, Mariners, Rangers and Cubs will receive meetings with Ohtani. While Ohtani has three weeks to negotiate with teams, ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that Ohtani could make a decision well before that point, noting that he could be introduced by his new club at next week’s Winter Meetings.

Of the remaining teams in the fold, the Rangers still have the most money to offer Ohtani, at $3.535MM, though his signing bonus seems increasingly to be a secondary consideration in where he ultimately signs, especially after last week’s reports that Ohtani could top $20MM in annual earnings in marketing endorsements. Certainly, his list of finalists reflects a preference for West Coast teams and a proximity to Japan, though the presence of the Rangers and Cubs indicates that he’s not quite locked into that mindset just yet.

Mariners, Giants, Padres, Rangers, Cubs, Angels Among Teams To Meet With Shohei Ohtani

By Mark Polishuk | December 3, 2017 at 11:40pm CDT

11:40pm: The Angels are indeed one of the finalists, as per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter).

10:39pm: The Angels are thought by “multiple sources” to be one of the finalists, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan tweets. The Tigers are out of the running, according to Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press.

8:59pm: The Rangers and Cubs will both meet with Ohtani, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports (Twitter link), and they’re also the only two non-West Coast teams who appear to still be alive in the candidate process. The Rangers, Grant notes, have yet to comment on their status one way or the other.

7:22pm: The Nationals won’t be receiving a meeting, the Washington Post’s Chelsea Janes reports (Twitter link).

6:58pm: The Braves are out, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports (via Twitter).

6:50pm: The Padres will receive a meeting with Ohtani, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reports (Twitter links). The Dodgers are also thought to still be active in the Ohtani sweepstakes though Heyman doesn’t have confirmation; regardless, the Dodgers aren’t thought to be favorites to land Ohtani.

6:38pm: The Rays, Cardinals and White Sox are out, according to the Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (all Twitter links).

6:15pm: The Diamondbacks won’t receive a meeting, Ken Rosenthal tweets.

6:12pm: The Blue Jays, Pirates, and Brewers are all out, as respectively reported by Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi, MLB.com’s Adam Berry, and the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Tom Haudricourt (all Twitter links).

5:48pm: The Mets are also out, as per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link).

5:38pm: Ohtani’s list is “heavy” on West Coast teams, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports, though the Cubs may still be involved. Not every west-based team is included, however, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that the A’s aren’t involved.

5:28pm: The Red Sox are also out of the running, president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski told Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. The Twins also won’t be getting a meeting with Ohtani, Heyman tweets.

5:16pm: The Giants and Mariners are among the teams that will receive meetings with Shohei Ohtani and his representatives next week, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link). It isn’t known who the other finalists are in the Ohtani sweepstakes, though the Yankees are one of the teams that didn’t make the cut, as Yankees GM Brian Cashman told reporters (including NJ.com’s Brendan Kuty and MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch).

According to Cashman, Ohtani seems to be leaning towards West Coast teams in smaller markets. This ties to a report from FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman saying that Ohtani’s reps are informing teams that the two-way star would prefer to play in a smaller market.

The news adds another fascinating layer to the Ohtani sweepstakes, which was already one of the more intriguing free agent pursuits in recent memory. Given the seeming lack of immediate financial motive that inspired Ohtani’s move to Major League Baseball, it opened the door for every team in baseball (regardless of market or payroll size) to make a push for the 23-year-old. There had been speculation that Ohtani might look to avoid playing in a larger market, so this apparent confirmation creates a realistic possibility that he will land with a team that wouldn’t normally be considered a favorite to land such a coveted free agent.

Of course, San Francisco isn’t exactly a small market, though Ohtani wouldn’t necessarily be the center of attention on a club with such established stars as Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner (and maybe even Giancarlo Stanton in the near future). Playing for an NL team, however, would force Ohtani into a pinch-hitting or even a part-time outfield role for the at-bats he seeks in his attempt to be a two-way player in the big leagues. The Mariners do have such a DH spot available (in a timeshare with Nelson Cruz), and were considered to be a contender for Ohtani given their long history of Japanese players.

The Yankees also have had several significant Japanese players on their past and current rosters, and were widely seen as one of the major favorites for Ohtani’s services from a financial (in terms of available international bonus money) and positional (openings at DH and in the rotation) standpoint, not to mention their international fame and their young core of talent ready to make a World Series push. With Ohtani now out of the picture, the Yankees could move to signing more pitching depth — a reunion with C.C. Sabathia has been widely speculated as a possibility — or a veteran bat to serve as designated hitter, if the club doesn’t just rotate its DH days to find plate appearances for everyone on the current roster.

2017 Non-Tenders

By Jeff Todd | December 1, 2017 at 7:10pm CDT

The deadline to tender 2018 contracts to players is tonight at 8pm EST. We’ll keep track of the day’s non-tenders in this post (all referenced arbitration projections courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) …

The Giants non-tendered righty Albert Suarez, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area tweets. Suarez, 28, was not yet eligible for arbitration.
Righty Tom Koehler and infielder Ryan Goins are heading to the open market after being non-tendered by the Blue Jays, per a team announcement.
The Rays announced that lefty Xavier Cedeno has been non-tendered, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets.
The Cubs non-tendered catcher Taylor Davis, per a team announcement. He was not yet eligible for arbitration.
Four Rangers players have not been tendered contracts, per a club announcement. Righties Chi Chi Gonzalez, A.J. Griffin, and Nick Martinez have been cut loose along with infielder Hanser Alberto. Griffin ($3.0MM projection) and Martinez ($2.0MM) were both noted as non-tender candidates by MLBTR. The other two players were not yet eligible for arbitration. Gonzalez was a former first-round pick who had struggled of late and underwent Tommy John surgery in July.
The Diamondbacks have also non-tendered lefty T.J. McFarland, who had projected at a $1.0MM salary.
The Reds non-tendered lefty Kyle Crockett, a pre-arb lefty who was only recently claimed on waivers, per a club announcement.
Per a club announcement, the Brewers have non-tendered veteran righty Jared Hughes. He will end up being the only 40-man player not to receive a contract from Milwaukee. Hughes had projected at a $2.2MM arbitration value. The 32-year-old is a master at inducing grounders and has turned in repeatedly excellent results. He also averaged a career-best 93.9 mph on his sinker in 2017.
The Mariners have non-tendered lefty Drew Smyly and righty Shae Simmons, per a club announcement. While the former was expected, due to Smyly’s Tommy John surgery, the latter rates as something of a surprise given his cheap $700K projection. Of course, it’s possible the club is not optimistic of his chances of bouncing back from arm troubles.
The White Sox will not tender a contract to reliever Jake Petricka, per SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (via Twitter). He had projected to take home $1.1MM in his second trip through the arb process. Also non-tendered, per a club announcement, were righties Zach Putnam and Al Alburquerque as well as infielder Alan Hanson.
It seems that righty Bruce Rondon will wind up his tenure with the Tigers, as the organization is set to non-tender him, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free-Press (via Twitter). Rondon was long viewed as a potential late-inning arm for the Tigers, but had some notable run-ins with the organization, struggled with control, and never consistently produced at the MLB level. Though he projected to earn just $1.2MM, Rondon will be allowed to find a new organization. He will turn 26 later this month.
The Diamondbacks will non-tender righty J.J. Hoover, per SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (via Twitter). Hoover projected at just $1.6MM, but Arizona is watching every penny as it seeks to return to the postseason with a tight payroll situation. The 30-year-old turned in 41 1/3 innings of 3.92 ERA ball in 2017 with 11.8 K/9 but also 5.7 BB/9 on the year.
The Royals announced that they have non-tendered outfielder Terrance Gore. Though Gore was not eligible for arbitration, teams occasionally utilize today’s deadline to prune their 40-man rosters. Gore had quite an interesting run with Kansas City, scarcely playing at all during the regular season and then appearing as a speed-and-defense asset in the team’s two storied postseason runs. Now, though the fleet-footed 26-year-old is out of options. With an upper minors OPS that hovers just over .600, Gore just was not going to break camp with the club. It seems reasonable to think there’s a chance he’ll return to the organization on a minors deal, though Gore will also have a shot at exploring the broader market.

Cubs To Non-Tender Hector Rondon

By Jeff Todd | December 1, 2017 at 5:22pm CDT

The Cubs will not tender a contract to reliever Hector Rondon, according to ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers (via Twitter). MLBTR had projected Rondon to earn $6.2MM via arbitration — a price that was too high for Chicago and, evidently, other teams around the league.

Rondon, 29, made quite an impact as a former Rule 5 pick, turning in a quality three-year run for the organization between 2014 and 2016. Over 184 1/3 innings in that span, he turned in a 2.44 ERA with 9.3 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9. Though he ceded his closer role to Aroldis Chapman in the midst of the team’s World Series run, Rondon remained a major piece of the club’s late-inning mix.

That did not hold up in 2017, however, as Rondon ended the year with a 4.24 ERA in 57 1/3 frames. He struck out 10.8 batters per nine but also issued 3.1 free passes per nine innings and allowed ten long balls. Rondon did still deliver his average fastball in the 96 to 97 mph range, and turned in a personal-best 11.9% swinging-strike rate to go with a 48.3% groundball rate.

Rondon seemingly lost the confidence of skipper Joe Maddon, to the point that he did not factor in the late-inning mix during the team’s postseason run. While the Cubs’ decision to move on is not terribly surprising at this point, it’s a bit of a surprise to learn that the organization was not able to find a suitable trade partner. The one-year price tag is hardly cheap, but falls in the range of contracts that often go to somewhat less-accomplished pitchers. There’s plenty of reason to think that Rondon will catch on elsewhere, perhaps even earning consideration for high-leverage innings, but it seems he’ll need to settle for less money than the $6.2MM or so he might have expected through arbitration.

Cubs Release Matt Carasiti To Sign With Japan’s Yakult Swallows

By Jeff Todd | December 1, 2017 at 2:13pm CDT

The Cubs have released right-hander Matt Carasiti, according to ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). He’ll be moving to Japan to play for Nippon Professional Baseball’s Yakult Swallows.

Carasiti, 26, landed in Chicago in a mid-season swap with the Rockies — the team that originally drafted and developed him. He reached the majors with Colorado in 2016, struggling in limited action.

There was some cause to think that Carasiti could earn a return trip to the majors before long. He worked to a 3.26 ERA with 12.3 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 over 49 2/3 Triple-A frames in 2017. Carasiti showed a mid-nineties heater during his brief MLB stint and has typically generated solid groundball numbers.

In the NPB, though, Carasiti will likely enjoy solid earnings and a clear path to a significant role. At his age, it’s certainly possible that he could end up moving back to the big leagues if he proves himself at Japan’s highest level.

Cubs Sign Dario Alvarez To Major League Deal

By Steve Adams | December 1, 2017 at 11:36am CDT

The Cubs announced that they’ve signed left-handed reliever Dario Alvarez to a Major League contract. Alvarez was designated for assignment and outrighted by the Rangers back in September and hit the open market at season’s end.

Alvarez, 29 in January, has seen Major League time in each of the past four seasons, tossing a combined 48 innings with the Mets, Braves and Rangers. In that time, he’s logged an unsightly 5.06 ERA with a more-promising 11.4 K/9 mark against 4.1 BB/9. He’s coming off a season in which he posted a sub-3.00 in the Majors (albeit with 14 walks in 16 1/3 innings) as well as in Triple-A and has a lengthy track record of intriguing strikeout rates at the minor league level.

Alvarez is out of minor league options, so he’ll have to either break camp with the big league roster or be exposed to waivers in order to be sent to Triple-A. Of course, it shouldn’t simply be assumed that he’ll be handed a job in the Chicago bullpen. Left-handed relief is an area of need for the Cubs (particularly after Justin Wilson’s struggles in Chicago), and it seems likely that they’ll pursue higher-profile options than Alvarez over the remainder of the season. Even if they don’t pick up additional lefties, though, Alvarez would likely compete with Rob Zastryzny for a spot as a third lefty in the bullpen next spring.

Due to his limited big league track record, Alvarez has only amassed one year and 66 days of Major League service time to this point in his career. If he ends up making a strong impression for the Cubs, Alvarez can potentially be controlled all the way through the 2022 season, and he won’t even be eligible for arbitration until the conclusion of the 2019 campaign at the very earliest.

For the Cubs, the signing of Alvarez isn’t entirely dissimilar to last winter’s acquisition of Brian Duensing. It was somewhat surprising to see Duensing land a 40-man roster spot coming off a down season with the Orioles, but the Cubs locked him up fairly early with a modest big league deal and were handsomely rewarded for their show of faith. While Alvarez comes with a considerably more limited track record than Duensing had, he’s a similarly surprising recipient of a 40-man roster spot.

Tender Deadline Notes: Mercer, Rays, Brewers, Cubs, Tigers, Romine

By Jeff Todd | December 1, 2017 at 1:30am CDT

Friday at 8pm EST marks the deadline for teams to tender contracts for the 2018 season, meaning that we’ll see a few difficult calls made on arbitration-eligible players. MLBTR recently compiled a list of the players we feel are most at risk to be non-tendered (with the proviso that many of the names on the list likely will not end up being set free). As ever, anticipated cost is a major factor, so you’ll want to reference the arbitration projections of MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz for a sense of where the salaries could be headed.

Here’s the latest chatter as the decision time draws near …

Some readers were surprised to see Pirates shortstop Jordy Mercer tabbed as a possible non-tender on MLBTR’s list. In our view, his hefty salary (projected at $6.5MM) and the possibility of finding cheaper alternatives combine to create some vulnerability — at least, that is, from an outside examination. The expectation of MLB.com’s Adam Berry, though, is that Pittsburgh will continue to rely on Mercer in his final season of arb eligibility. Berry cites Mercer’s steadiness and the fact that the team’s middle infield prospects aren’t quite ready yet to take over at short.
The Rays face a number of interesting arbitration decisions even after resolving one by trading Brad Boxberger; Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times runs through the list. The most recent report suggests that Tampa Bay will tender Brad Miller if they don’t trade him on Friday, and Topkin generally concurs with that assessment. While MLBTR feels there’s a chance that shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria and catcher Jesus Sucre could be at risk, Topkin says the expectation is they’ll be retained. Rather, he feels the focus could remain on the relief corps, with pitchers Xavier Cedeno, Dan Jennings, and Chase Whitley all being candidates for something other than a straight tender. That could mean a trade, a pre-deadline deal to lock in their salary at a favorable rate, or perhaps a non-tender.
Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel similarly examines the choices facing the Brewers. Two players that MLBTR identified as plausible non-tender candidates, reliever Jeremy Jeffress and catcher Stephen Vogt, receive similar billing from Haudricourt, as does righty Jared Hughes. Per the article, Milwaukee has “probably been trying to do pre-deadline deals” with the two pen pieces, while Vogt could simply be sent onto the open market.
For the Cubs, too, the toughest calls may come in the relief department. As Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Times writes, and as MLBTR’s analysis has suggested, Hector Rondon ($6.2MM projection) and Justin Grimm ($2.4MM) may be entering their final day with the Chicago organization. Rondon, especially, could receive trade consideration from other teams if the Cubs decide it’s time to move on.
Speaking of pen pieces at risk, the Tigers landed two players on our list: righties Bruce Rondon ($1.2MM projection) and Alex Wilson ($2.1MM). Evan Woodberry of MLive.com tweets that both are indeed potential non-tender candidates for Detroit, but both are not necessarily going to be cut loose. In Woodberry’s estimation, the volatile Rondon is somewhat likely to be cut loose after allowing 19 earned runs in his 15 2/3 MLB innings in 2017. Though he continued to show swing-and-miss stuff, and posted a 2.70 ERA in his 36 2/3 frames at Triple-A, Rondon struggled to limit the free passes. As for the 31-year-old Wilson, it’s something of the opposite scenario for Woodberry. He says that he expects Wilson will be tendered despite a middling 4.50 ERA in his most recent season. The veteran did post similar K/BB figures to those that allowed him to generate better results in prior campaigns.
We drew some ire for suggesting that the Yankees could pass a chance at retaining catcher Austin Romine for his projected $1.2MM salary, but MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch suggests there’s some possibility that could occur. Even if he is not kept on the 40-man roster, says Hoch, Romine could be targeted to return on a minors pact. Of course, he’d also then have a chance to see if he could score a MLB slot with another organization. Romine limped to a .218/.272/.293 slash line in 252 plate appearances last year, but is generally regarded as a solid defender. It seems likely that the decision will come down to a question of whether the Yanks simply think they can do better with youngster Kyle Higashioka or another open-market option to complement regular Gary Sanchez.

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