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Cubs Agree To Terms With First-Round Pick Matt Shaw

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The Cubs are in agreement on a deal with first round selection Matt Shaw, as first reported by Keith Law of the Athletic (Twitter link). He’ll be paid the full $4.85MM slot value associated with the 13th overall selection.

Shaw, a University of Maryland product, was generally perceived as a mid-first round talent. He ranked 7th on Law’s pre-draft rankings, 13th at Baseball America and 16th for MLB Pipeline. Evaluators praise his hit tool and solid power potential. The MVP of the Cape Cod League last summer, the righty-swinging middle infielder hit .341/.445/.697 with 24 home runs and more walks than strikeouts during his final season in College Park.

While Shaw played shortstop for the Terps, reports suggest he’s likely to move to second base in pro ball because of a below-average arm. He’s expected to stick at the keystone and could potentially move quickly through the minors as an advanced college bat.

The Cubs have Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner penciled into the middle infield for the next few seasons. If Shaw hits well enough in the minors to push to the MLB level within the next year or two, the extra depth would be a nice “problem” to have.

The Cubs Hit A Jackpot In Minor League Free Agency — Now What?

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Since the Cubs’ signing of Craig Kimbrel left them feeling burned for the first two seasons of the contract, ownership and the front office have eschewed spending on the bullpen. Rather than invest in high-priced relief options in free agency, the Cubs have spread out their bullpen investments over a series of small-scale additions, either on low-cost one-year deals or on minor league free agents. At times, they’ve had great success with the strategy (e.g. Andrew Chafin, David Robertson). Others haven’t gone so well (e.g. Brad Boxberger, Brandon Workman). They haven’t been burned by any big relief pitching commitments since Kimbrel, but they also have generally sat out on the top names on the market.

The merits of the strategy can be debated ad nauseum. On the one hand, it’s unequivocally a good thing to avoid being encumbered by any burdensome multi-year deals for relievers. On the other, the Cubs have the financial resources and payroll capacity to take such risks and withstand the missteps more than many of their smaller-payroll rivals. By steering clear of expensive, multi-year commitments they’ve also bypassed a number of quality relief options while trotting out bullpens with ERAs of 4.39 (2021), 4.12 (2022) and 4.01 (2023). Since 2021, Cubs relievers rank 20th in MLB with a 4.21 ERA.

It’s not as simple as stating, “You get what you pay for,” as player development plays an enormous role; the Guardians, for instance, have the second-best bullpen ERA in the past three years (3.30) despite signing just one reliever (Bryan Shaw) as a Major League free agent.

Relying on low-cost bullpen additions increases the importance of developing in-house relievers — which the Cubs have not done all that well — or striking it big in minor league free agency, where teams can potentially land multiple years of an effective reliever who’s not yet burned through his arbitration seasons. The Cubs’ lack of big investments and lack of development from the farm makes their biggest score in minor league free agency all the more important.

Mark Leiter Jr. has been nothing short of a godsend at Wrigley Field.

A 22nd-round pick by the Phillies back in 2013, Leiter (obviously) comes from a prolific baseball family. His father, Mark Sr., enjoyed an 11-year big league career. His uncle, Al, is a two-time All-Star and two-time World Series champion who pitched in 19 Major League seasons. Leiter Jr.’s cousin, Jack, was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2021 draft.

Just two years ago, Leiter Jr. looked to be a footnote in the Leiter family baseball lineage. He didn’t pitch in the Majors from 2019-21, despite solid numbers with the Tigers’ upper minors affiliates in ’21. When he quietly joined the Cubs on a minor league deal during MLB’s lockout — minor league free agency for players who didn’t finish the prior season on a 40-man roster or MLB injured list still continued during the stoppage — few thought much of it. Leiter looked like minor league depth and little more than that.

Perhaps that was how the Cubs saw things, too. Leiter didn’t break camp with the team in 2022 and was only summoned to the big leagues as a spot starter in mid-April. He started three games for the Cubs, yielded nine runs in 9 1/3 innings, and was optioned back to Triple-A Iowa. Over the next couple months, he was optioned back and forth a few different times, eventually moving into a full-time bullpen role.

For much of the season, Leiter was a nondescript swingman on a non-contending Cubs club. Trades of Scott Effross, David Robertson, Chris Martin and Mychal Givens, however, opened enough space in the bullpen for the Cubs to call Leiter back to the big leagues and stick him in the bullpen for good. The results were excellent. Although he carried a 5.35 ERA into last year’s All-Star break, Leiter was summoned to the Majors on July 30 and dominated in the season’s final two months: 29 innings, 2.17 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 27.4% strikeout rate, 9.4% walk rate, 50% ground-ball rate, three saves, four holds.

Even with that big finish to the season, however, Leiter didn’t stick on the Cubs’ 40-man roster all winter. Chicago held onto Leiter into January but ultimately chose to designate him for assignment in order to open a roster spot for Eric Hosmer (who’d eventually be released in June).

Perhaps it was Leiter’s lack of a power fastball, his spotty track record, his status as an out-of-options pitcher, or the fact that most clubs had already filled their 40-man rosters by mid-January and didn’t want to adjust — whatever the reason, Leiter cleared waivers. He elected free agency and re-signed with the Cubs less than two weeks later. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, manager David Ross and the rest of the Cubs brass have to be thrilled with that outcome.

This time around, Leiter wound up breaking camp with the team — and it’s hard to imagine where they’d be without him. In 36 2/3 innings, Leiter carries a 3.19 ERA with a career-high 34.7% strikeout rate against a tidy 8.0% walk rate. He’s kept the ball on the ground at a strong 48.8% clip, allowed just three home runs (0.74 HR/9), picked up three more saves and piled up 13 holds. The Cubs were hoping that offseason signees like Brad Boxberger and Michael Fulmer could hold down late-inning roles, but it’s been Leiter who’s stepped up as the team’s most reliable setup man.

Leiter doesn’t throw hard, averaging just 91.8 mph on his heater, but both his four-seamer and sinker take a backseat to his splitter anyhow. It’s a tumbling offering that opponents have hammered into the ground at a 52.9% clip… when they put the ball in play. Leiter carries a mammoth 49.2% whiff rate on the splitter, which is a huge reason that opponents are batting just .088/.186/.132 in the 102 plate appearances he’s ended with that pitch. Unsurprisingly, after throwing the pitch at a 22.7% clip last year (per Statcast), he’s ramped that usage rate up to 35.8% in 2023. It’s now his most-used pitch.

He’s had some rough outings recently, allowing a total of four runs in his past three innings, but the overall results this season have nevertheless been excellent. In fact, dating back to July 30 of last season, when Leiter was called to the big leagues for good, he’s now sporting a 2.74 ERA, 31.5% strikeout rate, 8.6% walk rate, 49.3% grounder rate and 0.69 HR/9 mark. Leiter has been proof that not all high-leverage arms need to feature triple-digit fireballs that blow opponents out of their socks.

Cubs management surely hopes the team can come firing out of the gates and play its way back into contention. The Cubs’ schedule coming out of the break, after all, isn’t exactly formidable. They’ll kick things off with three against the Red Sox before playing their next 13 games against the Nationals, Cardinals and White Sox — three of the worst teams in the Majors this season. It’s quite possible the Cubs can indeed climb back into the division race.

If, however, the Cubs continue to flounder and/or the Reds and Brewers pull away, Leiter is likely to draw some trade interest. Normally, a pitcher with more than three years of club control wouldn’t be a trade candidate for a team like the Cubs, who if not this year hope to contend in 2024. But Leiter is 32 — 33 next March — and only came to them on a minor league deal. If another club is willing to give up some actual prospect value, it’d be hard not to give serious consideration to the scenario.

Leiter’s emergence is a feel-good story — a 22nd-round pick that was never a top prospect despite coming from a high-profile baseball family, he hung on when his career looked lost, clawed back to the big leagues in his 30s and now finds himself as a valuable arm in a big league bullpen. More than that, however, his emergence could put the Cubs in a quandary — if they’re not able to turn their fortunes. Hang onto a quality reliever for his final three years of team control, or sell high and trade a 32-year-old who’s effectively “found money” for them when he’s at peak value? These are the types of decisions the Cubs will face over the next few weeks, making their immediate performance following the deadline a particularly important component of this year’s deadline season.

Cubs Place Dansby Swanson On 10-Day Injured List

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The Cubs placed shortstop Dansby Swanson on the 10-day injured list due to a left heel contusion.  The placement is retroactive to July 6.  Miles Mastrobuoni was called up from Triple-A to take Swanson’s spot on the active roster.

Swanson made an early exit from Wednesday’s game due to the injury, which occurred while he was running the bases.  The injury doesn’t appear to be particularly serious, as Cubs manager David Ross told reporters (including MLB.com’s Bill Ladson) that Swanson might have been available if necessary in Chicago’s game yesterday.  However, since Swanson had already decided to skip the All-Star Game due to his heel problem, the club has apparently opted for a 10-day IL stint to allow the shortstop to fully heal up.  The All-Star break will automatically absorb four of the 10 minimum days Swanson must miss, helping minimize his absence from Chicago’s lineup.

The Cubs are an underwhelming 41-46 as the break approaches, and the club is seven games out of both the NL Central lead and a wild card berth.  It certainly wasn’t what the Wrigleyville denizens were hoping for after the Cubs made some notable moves in the offseason, highlighted by their seven-year, $177MM free agent contract with Swanson.  While a lot has gone wrong for the Cubs in the first half, Swanson has been living up to his end of the deal, hitting .258/.343/.409 with 10 homers over 367 plate appearances.  Between his 108 wRC+ and his spectacular glovework at shortstop, Swanson has 2.9 fWAR, a total bested by only 18 position players in baseball.

Nico Hoerner has moved over from second base to shortstop in Swanson’s absence over the last two games, and will likely continue to fill in until Swanson returns.  The hot-hitting Christopher Morel will probably get most of the second base action, with Patrick Wisdom getting more time at third base if Morel is at the keystone.  Chicago is a little shorthanded in the middle infield since Nick Madrigal is sidelined with a hamstring strain, though with Swanson maybe missing only 10 days in total, the Cubs likely have enough to get by until the All-Star break.

Cubs Select Daniel Palencia

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The Cubs have selected the contract of right-hander Daniel Palencia, a move first reported by Marcos Grunfeld of El Emergente. The full slate of moves, as relayed by Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic, also sees infielder Patrick Wisdom activated from the injured list. In corresponding active roster moves, infielder Nick Madrigal has been placed on the 10-day IL with a right hamstring strain while right-hander Hayden Wesneski has been optioned. To open a spot on the 40-man for Palencia, righty Brad Boxberger was transferred to the 60-day IL.

Palencia, 23, was originally a prospect with the Athletics, but came over to the Cubs in the 2021 trade that sent lefty Andrew Chafin to Oakland. He’s worked mostly as a starter, but the club recently converted him to relief work upon promoting him to Triple-A.

The results there have been mixed, as he’s posted an ERA of 7.90 through 13 outings. That’s a small sample and there might be some fluky bad luck in there, considering his 50.9% strand rate. He’s struck out 27.3% of batters faced while walking 10.6%. His 4.09 FIP suggests he has deserved better results than he’s actually gotten so far. The Cubs will give him a shot at getting big league hitters out and hope that the wheel of fortune spins in a better direction for him going forward.

Madrigal left yesterday’s game with hamstring tightness and will sit out the next 10 days. It’s unclear how severe his injury is, but the upcoming All-Star break would allow him to miss only a handful of games if it’s on the minor side. He’s only struck out in 9.6% of his plate appearances but has just one home run, producing a .278/.335/.364 batting line. His roster spot will go to a hitter with the opposite profile, as Wisdom has 14 homers but a massive 38.9% strikeout rate, leading to a line of .196/.285/.467.

As for Boxberger, he’ll been on the injured list since May 14 due to a right forearm strain. He’ll now be ineligible to return until 60 days from that initial IL placement, meaning he can technically return after the All-Star break. But since he hasn’t yet started a rehab assignment, that doesn’t seem especially likely, making this transaction a mere formality.

Cubs “Not Inclined” To Extend Marcus Stroman Prior To Trade Deadline

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The Cubs are currently “not inclined” to extend right-hander Marcus Stroman prior to August 1’s trade deadline, according to Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. The report comes weeks after Stroman stressed his desire to sign a new deal in Chicago but indicated that the club had previously declined to begin extension talks, sparking trade speculation regarding the 32-year-old right-hander.

Per Rosenthal and Mooney, Chicago’s hesitance in inking Stroman to a long-term deal ahead of the deadline comes from uncertainty regarding the club’s path forward. The pair indicate that the club’s baseball operations budget in 2024 will be impacted by the club’s finish to the 2023 campaign, and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has expressed a willingness to hold out on making a decision between buying and selling until the last minute.

If the club’s front office plans to hold off on deciding between buying and selling, it’s of little surprise that they would not be interested in extending Stroman. The righty is having a career season in 2023 with a sterling 2.47 ERA that’s 78% better than league average by measure of ERA+ across 102 innings of work. He’s backed that up with a solid 20.8% strikeout rate, 8.6% walk rate, and a phenomenal 59.3% groundball rate that would be his best since 2018 over a full season.

There are signs that regression may be in Stroman’s future. Most notably, just 8.3% of the veteran’s fly balls have left the yard for home runs this season, a mark considerably below his career 13.1% figure. Even in spite of that potential red flag, however, Stroman still figures to be one of the hottest commodities on the free agent market should he opt out of the final one year and $21MM left on his contract at the end of the season. MLBTR rated Stroman as the ninth best pending free agent in the most recent update to our 2023-24 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings, and the Cubs surely expect Stroman to be similarly coveted by rival clubs at the trade deadline if they decide to sell.

Of course, the Cubs deciding to sell is no guarantee at this point. The club is 4.5 games out of first place in a weak NL Central as things standing, locked in a virtual tie with a Pirates team they just swept twice last month behind the Brewers and Reds. Additionally, their +32 run differential is the fifth best figure in the NL and the only positive mark of any team in the NL Central. With a four game set against Milwaukee set to start on Monday, Chicago’s standing in the division could look very different by the time the All Star break rolls around, one way or another.

For Stroman’s part, the veteran right-hander seems largely unfazed by the swirling rumors. Asked on Friday if there had been movement in contract negotiations, Stroman confirmed on Friday that there was “nothing new” before praising the organization to reporters (including Mooney): “I have a great relationship with Jed and Carter. It’s been awesome here. I just don’t think they’re in a position right now for me to extend my (time here). Which, I don’t even care. I feel good here. I would love for them to be in play in the offseason. I would love to have an opportunity to sign back here in free agency after the year is done.”

Such praise certainly seems to leave the door open for Stroman to re-up with the club in free agency, or even sooner. As Rosenthal and Mooney note, there’s nothing stopping them from pivoting toward extension talks after the trade deadline in the run-up to free agency. Such a strategy would be risky, of course, as few players extend once they’re that close to hitting the open market and the Cubs don’t have the ability to extend Stroman a Qualifying Offer after the season after he accepted a QO from the Mets prior to the 2021 campaign.

On the other hand, the upcoming free agent class figures to be unusually deep in pitching. Even setting aside two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani, interesting names such as Julio Urias, Aaron Nola, Lucas Giolito, Jordan Montgomery, and Sonny Gray all figure to hit the open market this winter, leaving the Cubs with plenty of options to replace Stroman at the top of their rotation alongside Justin Steele should he exit the organization by way of trade or free agency.

Jordan Holloway Opts Out Of Minors Deal With Cubs

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Right-hander Jordan Holloway is returning to the open market after exercising an opt-out clause in his minor league deal with the Cubs today, MLBTR has learned.

Holloway, 27, made his MLB debut during the shortened 2020 campaign, though he recorded just one out for the Marlins that season. Holloway returned to the majors for a longer audition in 2021, pitching to a 4.00 ERA that was slightly above average by measure of ERA+ (106) and a 4.42 FIP in 36 innings of work. In 2022, Holloway spent much of the season on the injured list and ultimately only appeared in a single game for the Marlins, allowing one run on three hits and a walk over 2 2/3 innings of work while striking out two.

In all, Holloway sports a solid 22% strikeout rate but a concerning 16.2% walk rate in his 39 big league innings of work. Holloway’s issues with the free pass have persisted in his time in the Cubs organization, as the right-hander has posted a 20.6% walk rate in 12 1/3 innings split between the High-A and Triple-A levels this season. Those struggles with control have contributed to his unsightly 6.57 ERA, though his excellent 38.1% strikeout rate is sure to be tempting for potential suitors as Holloway returns to the open market.

Holloway’s exit is a hit to Chicago’s bullpen depth, which had already been tested by recent surgeries for right-hander Codi Heuer and left-hander Brandon Hughes. The Cubs’ 4.05 bullpen ERA as a team this season ranks roughly middle of the pack (7th in the NL, 19th in MLB) as they’ve struggled to find consistent arms to surround a solid nucleus of Adbert Alzolay, Mark Leiter Jr. and Julian Merryweather. Keegan Thompson and Jeremiah Estrada are among the options available to the Cubs in the upper minors who are currently on the 40-man roster, with the likes of Tyler Duffey and Rowan Wick available as options who would need to be selected to the roster.

Cubs’ Brandon Hughes Undergoes Debridement Procedure On Left Knee

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Cubs reliever Brandon Hughes underwent a debridement surgery on his left knee today, the team informed reporters (including Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times). It was already known Hughes was going under the knife, though this specific surgery represents a change of plans.

Initially, doctors anticipated Hughes would require an osteotomy, a procedure that involves readjusting the bone. A debridement instead involves the removal of damaged tissue from the area. Lee suggests the new procedure comes with a quicker recovery timeline than the osteotomy, which was expected to sideline him into next year’s Spring Training.

The Cubs haven’t provided more specifics on Hughes’ new timeline, leaving it unclear whether a return this season is possible. Teammate Adrian Sampson underwent a debridement surgery on his knee in early May; he began a rehab assignment last weekend, roughly seven weeks post-operation. Obviously, there’s no guarantee Hughes will follow a similar path. The Cubs placed him on the 60-day injured list yesterday, so he’s ineligible to return until mid-August in any event.

Hughes, 27, emerged as a closing option for David Ross late last season. He posted a 3.12 ERA over 57 2/3 frames as a rookie. The southpaw has allowed 11 runs in 13 2/3 innings this year, striking out 17 but issuing eight walks.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: The Angels Trade for Infielders, Indecisive NL Central Teams and Aaron Judge’s Toe

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

  • The Angels acquired Eduardo Escobar from the Mets and Mike Moustakas from the Rockies (1:25)
  • The Pirates and Cubs and Cardinals are thinking about their respective trade deadline approaches (7:20)
  • The Yankees’ hopes are hanging on Aaron Judge’s toe (16:05)

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • How do you think the Red Sox will approach the deadline? Will they try to toe the line like last season (which did not work)? (18:50)
  • I would like to know what you think the Padres are going to do? They have numerous holes in that lineup, they are selling out game after game at home? You think major trades forthcoming? Or what? (22:40)
  • What do you think are the chances that the Braves trade Vaughn Grissom at the deadline? What caliber of player do you believe a package built around Grissom would bring in? (25:35)

Check out our past episodes!

Cubs To Select Jared Young

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3:30pm: Infielder Miles Mastrobuoni was optioned in a corresponding active roster move, per Sullivan. Left-hander Brandon Hughes, who will require season-ending surgery, has been transferred to the 60-day IL to open a 40-man spot for Young.

3:05pm: The Cubs will be selecting the contract of infielder/outfielder Jared Young, reports Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. Young’s presence at Wrigley Field was first reported on Twitter by @crawlyscubs. Young isn’t on the club’s 40-man roster, so they will have to make a corresponding move or moves in order to make room for him.

Young, 27, was selected to the club’s roster in September of last year and got a cup of coffee in the majors. He had a solid .263/.364/.368 line in 22 plate appearances but was outrighted off the roster in November. He’s spent all of this year mashing in Triple-A. He has 13 home runs in 52 games while walking in 13.8% of his plate appearances and striking out at just a 20.5% rate. His .326/.426/.605 batting line amounts to a 154 wRC+, indicating he’s been 54% better than league average.

Defensively, he’s played a bit of third base and the outfield corners but has seen most of his time at first base. The Cubs haven’t gotten much production at the cold corner this year, as Eric Hosmer hit .234/.280/.330 on the year. He was released and replaced by Matt Mervis, who slashed .167/.242/.289 before getting optioned to the minors. The club returned Cody Bellinger from the injured list before he was 100%, hoping to have him at first instead of his usual center field position but he’s hit just .160/.214/.200 since being activated. Trey Mancini has also seen some time there and hit a tepid .245/.317/.364 on the year.

With all those struggles, it’s understandable that the Cubs are looking for new approaches, especially as they’ve now climbed back into contention. Their 37-39 record isn’t especially impressive but they are just three games back of the lead in the wide open National League Central and they have the best run differential in the division. They’ll now give Young a chance to test his skills against big league pitching again, with just over a month before the club will have to decide whether or not to pursue upgrades at the trade deadline.

Cubs, Shane Greene Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Cubs have agreed to a minor league deal with veteran right-handed reliever Shane Greene, per the transaction log at MLB.com. The Ballengee Group client been assigned to Cubs’ affiliate in the Arizona Complex League for now, presumably to build up before joining the their Triple-A club in Iowa; Greene has yet to pitch for any team this season.

Greene, 34, had a strong run as a setup man and closer from 2017-20 between the Tigers and Braves. In 221 1/3 innings during that four-year peak, he posted a 3.25 ERA with a 24.2% strikeout rate, 8.6% walk rate, 33 holds and 64 saves. All but one of those saves came with Detroit. Atlanta acquired Greene at the 2019 trade deadline — sending lefty Joey Wentz and outfielder Travis Demeritte to the Tigers in return — but deployed him primarily as a setup man following the swap.

Following the trade, Greene posted a serviceable 4.01 ERA down the stretch for them in ’19 and went on to enjoy a solid 2020 campaign with Atlanta. However, that marks the most recent bit of MLB success for the right-hander. Greene was a late signee in May 2021, ultimately returning to the Braves only to see his results crater. He was torched for 16 runs in 17 innings to begin his ’21 season (8.47 ERA), and things were only marginally better in a brief nine-game cup of coffee with the Dodgers after being released in Atlanta.

Greene saw brief looks with the Dodgers and Yankees in 2022 but only pitched a total of three MLB innings. Overall, since the conclusion of the 2020 campaign, he has just 29 2/3 innings with a dismal 7.09 ERA to show for it. His sinker, which averaged 95 mph during his best year with the Tigers, averaged just 92.6 mph in 2021 and sat at 91.3 mph during last year’s tiny sample of big league work.

Swift decline notwithstanding, Greene represents a no-risk flier for a Cubs team that regularly rolls the dice on veteran rebound candidates in the bullpen. It hasn’t always worked in their favor, of course, but the Cubs have netted strong returns on minimal investments for names like Andrew Chafin, David Robertson, Ryan Tepera, Mychal Givens and Mark Leiter Jr. (among others) in sticking to this approach in recent years. They’ll hope to add Greene’s name to that list of successes in the coming months.

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