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White Sox To Sign Kelvin Herrera

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3:06pm: Herrera’s third-year option is valued at $10MM with a $1MM buyout, tweets Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago / 670 The Score. That indicates that Herrera will earn $17MM between the first two seasons of the deal, with the buyout making up the remainder of that $18MM guarantee. The exact terms of the vesting option remain unclear, though Levine notes that Herrera will need to be healthy in both 2019 and 2020 for it to vest, so it’s likely a combined number of innings pitched or appearances that’ll trigger the third year. As with all vesting options, it’ll revert to a straight club option if Herrera does not meet the designated criteria.

1:45pm: The White Sox are in agreement with free-agent righty Kelvin Herrera on a two-year contract that will promise him $18MM, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). The Wasserman client’s contract will also come with a vesting option for a third season. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that the vesting option could bring the total value of the deal to $27MM.

Kelvin Herrera | Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Given the manner in which Herrera’s season ended, the righty looks to have done quite well for himself in free agency. Herrera was lights out in Kansas City top open the season and was the centerpiece of an early-June trade sending him from Kansas City to the Nationals. Herrera, though, wasn’t as effective in Washington, as the superb control he showed with the Royals regressed and he became uncharacteristically homer-prone.

Those flaws might’ve been little more than a small-sample blip, but Herrera did hit the disabled list for just under two weeks due to a shoulder impingement. More concerning, however, was the foot injury that ended Herrera’s season. The righty tore the Lisfranc ligament in his left foot in late August — an injury that comes with a lengthy rehab process and can have lingering effects down the line. Herrera was said to be jogging in early December but, at that point, had not yet progressed to throwing at full strength. Based on the size of his contract, it seems that the ChiSox are expecting him to be available for the majority, if not all of the 2019 season.

Prior to his hiccup on the mound with the Nats and his subsequent season-ending injury, Herrera looked primed for perhaps the second-biggest payday on the relief market this winter (behind Craig Kimbrel). He only just turned 29 on New Year’s Eve, placing him among the youngest free-agent relievers on the market. He was also nothing short of dominant to begin the season in K.C., pitching to a 1.05 ERA with a pristine 22-to-2 K/BB ratio in 25 2/3 innings. That level of control was likely unsustainable for Herrera, meaning the same applied to his ERA, but he nonetheless looked legitimately dominant. He was averaging better than 96 mph on his heater with a 14.4 percent swinging-strike rate and an otherworldly 40.5 percent opponents’ chase rate on pitches out of the strike zone. Simply put, he looked well on his way to proving that a down season in 2017 was a fluke.

Given his age and a generally excellent track record, we at MLBTR predicted that Herrera would sign a one-year deal with an eye toward reentering free agency in advance of his age-30 season next winter. It’s hard to blame him, though, for preferring the security of a guaranteed multi-year deal — especially considering that he could still once again return to the market before his age-32 campaign even if he maxes out the value of the contract. As pitchers such as Andrew Miller and David Robertson have already demonstrated this winter, it’s certainly plausible for pitchers to secure hefty annual values on multi-year deals even as they enter their mid-30s.

Herrera will pair with trade acquisition Alex Colome to give the ChiSox a dramatic and much-needed upgrade at the back end of the bullpen. That duo, teamed with a hopefully healthier Nate Jones, will give manager Rick Renteria a trio of high-caliber right-handers to deploy in the late innings as the Sox look to begin to emerge from a multi-year rebuilding process. Of course, Chicago still has myriad other needs to address; in addition to questionable outfield mix — Eloy Jimenez looms, but Nicky Delmonico, Adam Engel and Daniel Palka are lined up at present — the Pale Hose will likely need to add some established talent to the rotation beyond already-acquired Ivan Nova if they indeed aim to be competitive in a weak AL Central. They’ll be without top prospect Michael Kopech in 2019 due to Tommy John surgery, while former top prospect Lucas Giolito has yet to prove his mettle in the big leagues.

As for the rest of the lineup, the Sox, as everyone knows at this point, are aiming big. They’ve been prominently linked to Manny Machado and, to a somewhat lesser extent, Bryce Harper. While the addition of Herrera won’t be a tipping point in the Sox’ courtship of either star free agent, it certainly can’t hurt to show the pair that the organization is willing to add some recognizable assets in an effort to turn the tides after several seasons of playoff misses.

Latest On Machado, ChiSox

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  • The latest round of Manny Machado speculation had the free agent infielder reportedly visiting Chicago today, attending the Eagles/Bears NFL playoff game as a guest of White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf.  As per Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times, however, this rumor wasn’t accurate.  In terms of free agency, Machado is already seeing a Chicago vs. Philadelphia (vs. New York) battle play out, as the White Sox, Phillies, and Yankees are the three teams most directly connected to his pursuit, and it’s possible these three clubs could be the finalists for Machado’s services.

ChiSox Could Still Bring Avisail Garcia Back

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As White Sox right-hander Reynaldo Lopez celebrates his 25th birthday today, let’s have a look at some items around the AL Central…

  • Avisail Garcia “remains in the picture” for a potential return to the White Sox, MLB.com’s Scott Merkin writes, though not if the team makes a much bigger splash by signing Bryce Harper.  Chicago non-tendered Garcia rather than pay him a projected $8.0MM arbitration salary in 2019.  Garcia posted replacement-level production in three of his four full seasons with the Sox, seemingly breaking out with a 4.2 fWAR season in 2017 but then reverting to a 0.0 fWAR in 2018 while hitting .236/.281/.438 with 19 homers in 385 PA.  Knee injuries could have contributed to this subpar performance, so there is hope that Garcia is a rebound candidate with better health.

White Sox Have Made Formal Offer To Manny Machado

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Jan. 4: In a full column, Nightengale cites four sources in reporting that Chicago has indeed issued an offer to Machado. However, while there’s no specific dollar amount revealed, he suggests that it’s “likely closer to $200 million than $300 million” in total value.

Meanwhile, Fancred’s Jon Heyman characterizes the Sox as a “long shot” for Harper (Twitter link), perhaps further underscoring that Chicago is more focused on Machado. It’s worth noting, however, that Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times writes that the South Siders’ presentation to Harper “impressed [him] more than he anticipated.”

Regardless, a Machado agreement hardly seems imminent. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes (subscription required) that agent Dan Lozano is “barely engaging” teams on Machado at the moment and is instead “waiting for a team to jump.” The White Sox’ offer, while somewhat of a jump, doesn’t sound the be in the vicinity that most expected Machado to command.

Jan. 3: The White Sox have been frequently linked to both Bryce Harper and Manny Machado this offseason, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that they’re more engaged on Machado at the moment and recently extended a formal offer to the free-agent infielder. The ChiSox has not yet taken that step with Harper, Nightengale adds.

Details of the prospective contract aren’t known, though the very fact that a formal offer has been put forth is nonetheless notable. The White Sox have been motivated all offseason to add some established big league talent to their roster as they look to begin emerging from a rebuild, but to this point, the biggest names they’ve added have been reliever Alex Colome and right-hander Ivan Nova — both via the trade market. Adding Machado to the mix would be a clear signal that the Sox are earnestly attempting to turn the page.

The White Sox, though, have competition for both Harper and Machado, regardless of whether formal offers have been made or not. The Yankees and Phillies are reported to be active pursuers of Machado, while the Dodgers, Nationals, Phillies and Cubs are among the teams most prominently linked to Harper. In that same vein, Nightengale tweets that the Phillies’ signing of David Robertson today will likely turn their focus to both Harper and Machado, and other teams expect Philadelphia to be the high bidder on both free agents.

Similarly, WEEI’s Rob Bradford wrote earlier today that the Phillies’ pursuit of Harper and Machado could impact their approach to addressing the bullpen; Bradford suggested that the Phils, who had interest in Craig Kimbrel, would likely bow out on Kimbrel if they signed Harper or Machado. The fact that the Phillies proactively pursued a more affordable option for the back of their bullpen is of at least some note if there was a sense that they wouldn’t make a play for one of the top two position players and Kimbrel.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported yesterday that the White Sox were willing to make an offer of 10 years or more to Harper, though Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago/670 The Score followed that by saying the ChiSox weren’t willing to go beyond seven years for either Harper or Machado. Whatever the White Sox’ threshold is, they’ve apparently made their starting point known to Machado at this point. With Philadelphia having wrapped up some bullpen business earlier today, it stands to reason that they’ll follow suit in the relatively near future as well.

3 Remaining Needs: AL Central

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Our 3 Remaining Needs series skips over to the Cleveland-dominated American League Central, home to three of MLB’s least successful franchises in 2018. The Tribe still figure to have a stranglehold on the division, though the upstart Twins have kicked off the winter with a flurry of moves, and prospect-rich White Sox are shooting well beyond their typical free-agent moon. Here’s a look at the three most pressing needs for each team in the division (listed in order of 2018 finish) . . .

[Previous installments: NL West, NL East, NL Central, AL West]

Cleveland Indians

  • Find an outfielder (or three). The Tribe probably don’t need to do anything this winter if their aim is simply to lock down a fourth straight division crown, but surely the title-starved club, rife with franchise icons on the infield and in the rotation, has set its sights a good deal higher. If so, they’ll need to fix their desolate outfield situation, which currently features some haphazard mix of Jordan Luplow, Jake Bauers, Leonys Martin, Greg Allen, and Tyler Naquin. Jason Kipnis could be an option as well, though the club has already swapped penciled-in third baseman Yandy Diaz for Bauers, which should force Jose Ramirez back to the hot corner and Kipnis – who suffered through a second consecutive subpar season in ’18 – back to second. The Indians saved about $18MM by dealing Yonder Alonso and Edwin Encarnacion, so this should be their first priority.
  • Address the pen. Behind star-level closer Brad Hand, the Tribe pen is surprisingly thin. Tyler Olson, essentially a LOOGY at this point in his career, is otherwise the club’s highest-producing returner, with a 2.94 xFIP in just 29 IP. Stunningly, not a single other returning Indian reliever posted higher than 0.1 fWAR in 2018, with heralded midseason acquisition Adam Cimber posting a dreadful 3.15 K/9 over an identical 3.15 BB/9 in his stint with the club. Cleveland has long treasured bargain pickups in this area, and may again be left shuffling through the bin in search of help.
  • Acquire a catcher. Recent deals have stripped the club of star prospect Francisco Mejia and the up-and-down Yan Gomes, leaving just a combination of Roberto Perez and Eric Haase behind the dish, each of whom project around replacement level. An upper-minors savior isn’t in the wings, so the club will likely be forced to look elsewhere for an upgrade.

Minnesota Twins

  • Solidify the back end of the rotation.  The Twins have gone all-in on righty power (Nelson Cruz, C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop) this winter, but have still yet to address a number of staff holes.  A top end of Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, and Kyle Gibson – plus a returning Michael Pineda – is a nice start, but three of the four are free agents after the season, and the club has little in the way of track record after that. Youngsters Stephen Gonsalves, Lewis Thorpe, and Fernando Romero could fill in eventually, but none appear poised to immediately lock down a role.
  • Shore up the pen. Taylor Rogers quietly had one of MLB’s best relief seasons in 2018 (a dominant 54 FIP-) and Trevor May is a quality arm, but the Twins lack anything in the way of cohesion beyond that. Figureheads Addison Reed and Trevor Hildenberger struggled mightily with the long ball last year and, with the fickle nature of even longtime bullpen success stories, can hardly be counted on in the season to come. Lefty Andrew Vasquez deserves at least an early-season look after sporting minor league numbers that nearly defy belief, but the club would do well to hunt down two or three more proven performers in the back end.
  • Don’t mess with Kepler. German-born Max Kepler has accrued nearly three full seasons’ worth of MLB at-bats in his young career and has yet to produce even a league-average line, but a closer look suggests there may be much more to come. Indeed, the 25-year-old quietly accumulated a solid 2.6 fWAR last season despite a balls-in-play average of just .236, and his plate-discipline profile (11.6 BB%/15.7 K%) stood as one of the AL’s best. Kepler earns plus defensive marks wherever he plays, and could be a breakout center-field candidate if Byron Buxton again sputters early in the season. Kepler is an apparently a sought-after commodity on the trade market this winter, but the man who Steamer projects to produce a 110 wRC+ (Brandon Nimmo, by comparison, is at 112) should have a long-term home in Minneapolis.

Detroit Tigers

  • Find a taker for Nick Castellanos. Castellanos, 26, had his best offensive season last year, slashing .298/.354/.500 (130 wRC+) with a celestial 48% hard-hit rate. He’s entering the last year of team control, though, and would seem to have to have little on-field value for a rebuilding Tiger club; numerous teams are said to have had interest, but the price (somewhat oddly, given his defensive ineptitude) remains exorbitant.
  • Continue to hunt for flip candidates. Thus far in the offseason, Detroit has signed Matt Moore, Tyson Ross, and Jordy Mercer, all of whom (but especially the former two) could have legitimate mid-season trade value if they unexpectedly return to form. Pickups of this ilk seem ideal for a Tiger team in flux; a few more, perhaps at multiple spots in the outfield and in the bullpen, could be an excellent jumpstart for the nascent rebuild.
  • Add prospect depth. It’s been years – decades, maybe – since the Tiger farm churned out multiple big leaguers at a time, with the team instead preferring to assemble their best clubs through shrewd trades and lavish free-agent signings. Now, though, seems the perfect time to amass a burgeoning juggernaut on the farm; the club is off to a great start, with three of the league’s top-50 prospects in place, but strength in numbers will be the order of the next few seasons in Motown.

Chicago White Sox

  • Sign one of (or both) Manny Machado and Bryce Harper.  This remains a long shot, to be sure, but the talk in Chicagoland seems to be intensifying around each superstar. Whether the White Sox, who’ve never handed out a free-agent contract north of $70MM in club history, are willing to meet the respective enormous demands is unclear, but a seat at the table may be sufficient for the long-suffering fans on the Southside.
  • Find guys who put the ball in play. The White Sox led baseball with a hard-to-believe 26.3 K% last year, and received meager ancillary benefit, with a mid-pack team ISO of just .160. Among regulars, only Jose Abreu had a strikeout percentage under 20%, which may well be a first in major-league history. A power-driven lineup makes sense in the homer-happy Guaranteed Rate Field, but it won’t mean much if the club continues to strike out at a historic collective pace.
  • Find guys who keep the ball in play. Chicago’s 115 xFIP- was dead-last in MLB last year, aided in no small part by a league-worst 4.09 BB/9 and the tendency of its starters to deliver up the gopher ball. Head culprit James Shields is gone, but the club needs, urgently, to be on the scent of pitchers with a track record of limiting the home run. Perhaps no pitcher would be a better fit than Marcus Stroman (0.81 career HR/9), but others, like Gio Gonzalez, Mike Leake, Sonny Gray, and even perhaps Martin Perez, who was homer-allergic in his previous few seasons prior to last, would be excellent choices as well.

Kansas City Royals

  • Scour the depths for pitching help. Kansas City’s pitching staff was, by any account, an unmitigated disaster last season, as the team’s hurlers struck out a mere 7.27 men per nine on the way to near-league-worst output. The team, oddly, has poured so much of its resources into finding high-contact offensive players, but seems thoroughly disinterested in identifying their inverse on the pitching staff. The 2018 Royals featured nine regular contributors who struck out seven or fewer men last season, none of whom received much help from the unit’s highest-priced contingent of Ian Kennedy and Danny Duffy. Put simply, the Royals need mound help wherever they can find it.
  • Cash in peak-value assets. 30-year-old Whit Merrifield’s value will likely never be higher – fresh off a 5.2 fWAR season, the versatile IF/OF has already piqued the interest of a number of a clubs, all of whom have been informed that he likely is not available. Such a strategy seems unsound – Merrifield, after all, projects around league-average next season, would seem to have hit his zenith, and doesn’t figure to be a key cog in the next contending Royals club. Plus, there’s the troubling track record – it took Whit three tries to progress beyond Double-A, and another three to get past AAA. If a crater is on the horizon, Kansas City will certainly be kicking themselves in the seasons to come.
  • Find regular at-bats for Brett Phillips and Jorge Soler. The two former top-50 prospects have seen their value slide precipitously over the last two seasons, but it’s certainly not time to give up on either yet. Alex Gordon and the newly-signed Billy Hamilton figure to take up two-thirds of the outfield slots, and team favorite Jorge Bonifacio is likely to contend at the other, but the non-contending Royals must find a way to get both of these players at least 400 plate appearances in 2019.

Latest On The White Sox Pursuit Of Bryce Harper, Manny Machado

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5:38 PM: Levine does take care to note that, per his sources, Harper “has had” ten-year offers with “big” proposed AAV salaries, though the tendering clubs remain as yet unknown.

3:07 PM: Earlier today, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reported that the White Sox (and the Phillies) were willing to give Bryce Harper a contract of at least ten guaranteed years in length.  However, contrasting information on Chicago’s stance has come from 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine (Twitter link), who reports that the White Sox are only willing to give Harper or Manny Machado a maximum of a seven-year contract.  According to “high ranking industry sources” in contact with Levine, Passan’s report about the White Sox being open to a ten-year deal is “without any substance and flat out wrong.”

This isn’t the first time we’ve heard that the Sox weren’t quite going all-out in their pursuit of either free agent.  Earlier in the offseason, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney described Chicago’s approach to Harper and Machado as “measured and modest,” noting that the club wasn’t willing to make the type of record-setting contractual commitment that both players are reportedly seeking.

Both Harper and Machado will be only 26 years old on Opening Day, and their entries into free agency at such a young age invite extended commitments considering their potential for future performance.  Either player could quite reasonably still be productive in their age-35 season, when a ten-year deal would conclude.  Looking at other recent long-term free agent deals, Jason Heyward (also just 26 at the time) scored an eight-year deal from the Cubs in December 2015, and Eric Hosmer (then 28 years old) got eight years from the Padres just last winter.  It’s almost impossible to see Harper or Machado taking less, considering that both have delivered considerably more superstar-level production than either Heyward or Hosmer at the time of their deals.

All things considered, a seven-year pact doesn’t seem like it would even get Harper or Machado’s attention, unless it came with a very high average annual value.  Even that strategy would seem uncharacteristic for the White Sox, who have never spent more than $68MM total (for Jose Abreu) on a player.  The Sox do have some new revenues coming in the form of a new broadcast contract, though it would still be a big leap to see the team suddenly be willing to spend in the neighborhood of $35MM+ in average annual value to land one of the offseason’s top two free agents.

White Sox Willing To Give Bryce Harper 10+ Years

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It’s too soon to count out a reunion between Bryce Harper and the Nationals, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan writes in his latest column, as “Harper has met multiple times with representatives” from the team.  In a rather surprisingly open interview last month, Nats managing principal owner Mark Lerner said his organization wasn’t willing to go beyond the ten-year, $300MM extension it offered Harper after the season, though rumors have continued to swirl that Washington is still at least monitoring Harper’s market.  It could still be some time before we have an answer about Harper’s 2019 destination, as the outfielder (like many Scott Boras clients) is in no rush to sign a contract that doesn’t meet his satisfaction.  The Phillies and White Sox, Passan reports, are willing to guarantee Harper at least a ten-year deal, indicating that the two teams have at least made some progress in their pursuit of the free agent outfielder, though obviously the gigantic dollar figure Harper is demanding is still a very notable obstacle.

[SOURCE LINK]

  • A.J. Pollock is one of many big-name free agents whose markets may not get moving until Harper and/or Manny Machado sign new contracts.  As Passan notes, Pollock is a good fit for both the Phillies and White Sox, though those teams are more likely to focus on Harper and Machado before turning to backup plans.  Three executive tell Passan that Pollock’s situation bears similarity to Lorenzo Cain last winter, who had to wait until late January to find a new contract, though his market quickly heated up to the point that he was able to land a hefty five-year, $80MM deal from the Brewers.

Minor MLB Transactions: 12/30/18

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Rounding up some minor moves from around baseball…

  • The White Sox have signed right-hander Donn Roach to a minor league deal, as per the Mariners Minors Twitter account.  Roach posted a 5.77 ERA over 39 innings with the Padres, Cubs, and Mariners from 2014-16, though he has also spent time with six other MLB organizations and with the KT Wiz of the Korea Baseball Organization.  The White Sox previously signed Roach to a minors deal last offseason, and he pitched well for Triple-A Charlotte (2.65 ERA over 95 innings, starting 15 of 16 games) before being released in July to sign with Japan’s Orix Buffaloes.

White Sox Reportedly Interested In Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Martinez

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The Mariners have grown “increasingly confident” they’ll be able to trade designated hitter/first baseman Edwin Encarnacion before their spring training opens, Jon Morosi of MLB.com says (video link). Encarnacion’s market has picked up in the wake of the Twins’ agreement with Nelson Cruz, whose suitors are now turning to the former. The Rays, White Sox and Astros are each “involved” on both Encarnacion and Cardinals first baseman/outfielder Jose Martinez, according to Morosi.

White Sox Maintaining Interest In Ottavino

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  • The White Sox, Red Sox and Rockies are all maintaining some level of interest in free-agent reliever Adam Ottavino, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. As one of the top relievers on the market, the 33-year-old Ottavino should have no shortage of clubs inquiring about his services, though the asking price on top-end bullpen arms could prove prohibitive for some clubs. To this point, Jeurys Familia (three years, $30MM), Joe Kelly (three years, $25MM) and Andrew Miller (two years, $25MM) are among the relievers MLBTR ranked in Ottavino’s tier of free agency to have cashed in quite nicely. Given his 2.43 ERA, 2.74 FIP, 2.82 SIERA and 13.0 K/9 mark, Ottavino figures to have a fairly high ask, as well. The interest from each of the three teams listed by Morosi has been previously reported, and there are some issues with some of the fits. Adding Ottavino, for instance, could push the Red Sox back into the top tier of the luxury tax bracket. And the Rockies spent more than $100MM on their ’pen last winter, which could make them reluctant to add a fourth reliever on the type of multi-year contract Ottavino should ultimately command.
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