Rockies, Yankees, Braves Interested In Bryan Reynolds
Bryan Reynolds‘ trade request has sparked a new round of speculation that the Pirates might look to deal the outfielder, and any number of teams could be fits to make bids for the All-Star. The Rockies are a new team with interest in Reynolds, according to The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders, while Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette hears that that from a source that the Yankees are still “very much” part of the mix after initially trying to land Reynolds both last winter and at the trade deadline. The Braves are another team who has previously been linked to Reynolds on the rumor mill, and could re-emerge with “a strong, under-the-radar push for Reynolds this winter,” a source tells The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel.
The fit is apparent on any of these clubs, as a switch-hitting All-Star who is controlled through the 2025 season is naturally a good fit on almost any roster. Reynolds could slide right into Atlanta’s left field position, teaming with Michael Harris and Ronald Acuna Jr. as one of baseball’s best starting outfields, and allowing the Braves to move Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario into part-time or DH duty (or possibly into trade bait, if any deals can be found). Reynolds can likely move right into regular left field work for the Yankees, also moonlighting in center field to spell Harrison Bader once in a while, and Reynolds’ switch-hitting bat will help balance out a New York lineup that is heavy on right-handed hitters.
Colorado is the most likely of this trio to primarily keep Reynolds in center field, though Kris Bryant‘s versatility allows the Rockies with some flexibility in figuring out their lineup. The Rockies’ first goal will be to just get Bryant back onto the field after an injury-plagued 2022, but assuming that Bryant returns in good form, he can bounce around to either corner infield or outfield position, and even play the occasional game in center field. Bryant played only left field and DH last year, and the Rox might opt to have Bryant and Reynolds in the corner outfield spots flanking Yonathan Daza and Randal Grichuk in center field. Lineup balance would also be a factor for a mostly right-handed Colorado batting order.
Of course, it remains to be seen if the Pirates will trade Reynolds anywhere. In response to Reynolds, the Bucs flatly stated that the trade request “will have zero impact on our decision-making this off-season or in the future.” Pittsburgh’s asking price in any Reynolds trade has been said to be extremely high, as the Pirates seem to regard Reynolds as a building block rather than the latest player to be dealt away as part of their lengthy rebuild. The two sides were even engaged in extension talks, though the lack of progress in these talks seems to have been a major reason why Reynolds asked to be dealt.
Back in August, Baseball America’s midseason organizational talent rankings put the Rockies (in 10th place) well ahead of both the Yankees (17th) and Braves (28th) in terms of farm system strength. In theory, Colorado might have some advantage in a bidding war depending on the types of young talent the Pirates would want in return for Reynolds, though BA’s rankings do reflect players that still qualify as minor leaguers. Not that Atlanta would move Harris or Spencer Strider for Reynolds anyway, but the Braves’ lower ranking reflects how those two young stars had graduated to the big leagues, thus removing two very prominent prospects from BA’s evaluation. If the Pirates are hopeful of becoming competitive perhaps even as early as 2024, they could be more apt to ask for MLB-ready young players, which would help the Braves and Yankees in the Reynolds talks.
Minor League Moves: Hartlieb, Koch, Motter
The Marlins added pitcher Geoff Hartlieb to a minor league deal, per Baseball America’s minor league transactions page. Harltlieb, 29 next week, pitched for Boston’s Triple-A affiliate in 2022, tossing 61 innings of 5.16 ERA ball. He appeared in the big leagues for the Pirates and briefly the Mets, throwing 66 1/3 innings across three seasons with a 7.46 ERA. He had a slightly below average 20.5% strikeout rate against a 14.4% walk rate.
Here’s some other minor league signings from around the sport:
- Matt Koch has landed a deal with the Rockies for 2023. The 32-year-old pitched a handful of innings for the Mariners in 2022, but spent most of the year at Triple-A, tossing 38 1/3 innings of 3.05 ERA ball. He spent four seasons in Arizona, throwing 129 2/3 innings of 5.00 ERA ball across 16 starts and 20 relief appearances. He doesn’t walk many batters, but doesn’t strikeout many either, averaging just five per nine innings across his big league career.
- The Braves re-signed Brooks Wilson and Alan Rangel to minor league deals. Wilson, 26, largely worked as a reliever at Double-A, tossing 44 innings with a 2.45 ERA while striking out 14.9 batters per nine innings. He made a handful of appearances at Triple-A, and should start the year there in 2023. Rangel, 25, made 26 starts at Double-A, working to a 5.81 ERA across 114 2/3 innings.
- The White Sox brought back 30-year-old outfielder Mark Payton. He appeared in just eight games in the big leagues this year, tallying three hits in 25 plate appearances. He had a strong season at Triple-A, hitting .293/.369/.539 with 25 home runs. He’s yet to translate that to the majors though, and has a lifetime .164/.261/.180 line in 40 games for the Reds and White Sox since his 2020 debut.
- Daniel Duarte re-signed with the Reds for 2023. Celebrating his 26th birthday tomorrow, Duarte spent most of the season on the injured list, but appeared in three games for the Reds in 2022, giving up three runs in 2 2/3 innings. At Triple-A, he worked to a 9.39 ERA across 7 2/3 innings.
- The Athletics added right-handed pitcher Jasseel De La Cruz to a minor league pact. The 25-year-old was signed out of the Dominican Republic by the Braves, and came up through their system as a solid pitching prospect. He struggled with injury in 2022, tossing just 26 1/3 innings in total, with 12 1/3 of those coming at Triple-A. There, he had an 8.03 ERA across seven appearances.
- The Padres brought back Mexican pitcher Efrain Contreras on a minor league deal. The 22-year-old made 17 starts at High-A in 2022, working to a 5.74 ERA across 53 1/3 innings. While those numbers don’t look promising, he has averaged 10.2 strikeouts and 2.8 walks per nine innings across three seasons in the minor leagues.
- Utilityman Taylor Motter has joined the Cardinals for the upcoming season. Motter, 32, has appeared in the big leagues for six different teams since 2016, hitting a combined .191/.262/.309 with ten home runs. He’s appeared at every defensive position outside of catcher and center field, but primarily handles the middle-infield spots. He made a handful of appearances for the Reds in 2022, but spent most of the year at Triple-A where he slashed .254/.357/.523 with 20 home runs for the Reds’ and Braves’ affiliates.
- Puerto Rican shortstop Shawn Ross and the Pirates agreed to a minor league contract for the 2023 season. Ross, 22, played for Grand Junction in Independent ball in 2022, hitting 280/.408/.614 with 24 home runs.
Carlos Estevez Drawing Wide Interest In Free Agency
As teams scour the market for bullpen help, Carlos Estévez is emerging as a popular target. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote earlier this week some teams view the right-hander as a potential closer and suggested he was finding a decent amount of interest. Will Sammon of the Athletic reported yesterday that seven teams had been in contact with his camp.
A career-long member of the Rockies, Estévez hit the open market for the first time this winter. He’s coming off a 3.47 ERA across 57 innings, a solid mark for a pitcher who spent half his games at Coors Field. The native of the Dominican Republic punched out a league average 23% of opponents against a slightly elevated 9.8% walk rate. Those are decent peripherals, although he only generated swinging strikes on a career-low 9% of his offerings.
While Estévez was a decent middle innings option in 2022, the appeal for teams lies more in the belief he could elevate his game outside the sport’s most hitter-friendly environment. He’s one of the league’s hardest throwers, averaging 97.5 MPH on a four-seam fastball that runs into triple digits at its best. He turned to that heater more than 70% of the time this past season, occasionally mixing in a slider against same-handed batters and a changeup against lefties. Each of his secondary offerings had success in their limited usage, and teams could certainly look to scale up how often he throws either pitch to pair with his high-velocity heater.
That kind of arsenal makes Estévez an intriguing target for teams, but his six-year tenure in Denver was mixed. He posted an ERA above 5.00 in three of his first four seasons. A 4.38 mark through 64 outings in 2021 was an improvement over much of his earlier work, but Estévez carried a career 4.85 ERA into this year. He posted a 5.17 ERA through this past season’s first half but was excellent down the stretch, limiting opponents to a .146/.206/.281 line while allowing fewer than two earned runs per nine innings after the All-Star Break.
Estévez has a bit of closing experience, having picked up 11 saves in 2021. Colorado has otherwise used him in setup work, affording him a fair number of high-leverage assignments going back to 2020. He had decent results against hitters from both sides of the plate in 2022, but his 26.5% strikeout rate against right-handed batters was far better than a 19.7% mark against southpaws. Clubs targeting him for a leverage role in the middle innings would presumably prefer to match him up against same-handed hitters when possible.
MLBTR forecasts a three-year, $21MM deal for Estévez, who turns 30 next month. Free agency has been slow to develop thus far, but there were a few early deals for relievers that possibly portend a strong market. The Mets made Edwin Díaz the first nine-figure reliever in league history, inking him to a five-year, $102MM pact shortly before free agency opened. The Padres followed up with a five-year guarantee of their own, retaining Robert Suarez for $46MM in a deal that allows him to opt out after 2025. Not long thereafter, Rafael Montero returned to the Astros on a three-year, $34.5MM contract that topped general expectations.
That series of early deals removed three of the top options from the market. Kenley Jansen and David Robertson are veterans with extensive closing experience, while Seth Lugo, Chris Martin, Adam Ottavino and Trevor May are among the productive setup types available from the right side.
Rockies Among Teams Interested In Cody Bellinger
The Rockies are among the growing number of teams with some interest in recently non-tendered outfielder Cody Bellinger, reports Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. The 2017 NL Rookie of the Year and 2019 NL MVP has also been tied to the Blue Jays and Giants in the past few days.
While Bellinger, who has hit just .193/.256/.355 over the past two seasons after undergoing shoulder surgery in 2020, is an obvious reclamation project at this point, he’s also a fairly sensible fit for the Rockies. Colorado center fielders were among the least-productive groups in all of MLB in 2022, slashing .240/.298/.334. The resulting 65 wRC+ was the second-worst mark of any team’s center field group. Bellinger, of course, has been even worse than that tepid output in recent seasons, but any team signing him will be rolling the dice on a return to form — if not all the way back to his MVP-caliber numbers then at least to a once-again productive source of power.
The Rockies have a pretty clear hole in center field, where a combination of Yonathan Daza and Randal Grichuk would be slated to play as things currently stand. Grichuk posted a .259/.299/.425 (88 wRC+) batting line in 2022, falling well shy of the expectations the Rockies had when acquiring him from the Blue Jays.
Daza makes tons of contact and even topped a .300 batting average in 2022, but his .301/.349/.384 slash also draws attention to his complete dearth of power; Daza has just four homers in 844 Major League plate appearances, so any regression in the .347 BABIP he’s enjoyed over the past two seasons could result in far more problematic bottom-line numbers. Defensively, both Grichuk and Daza turned in sub-par marks for their glovework in center field.
Bellinger, for all his warts at the plate over the past two seasons, has maintained at least average defensive marks (well above-average, per Statcast) for his work in center field and provided value on the basepaths. He’d also give some needed balance to a lineup that presently skews very heavily toward the right side of the plate. Third baseman Ryan McMahon and right fielder/designated hitter Charlie Blackmon are the only two lefties assured of any playing time. Corner prospects Michael Toglia (switch-hitter) and Nolan Jones (lefty), the latter of whom was recently acquired in a trade with the Guardians, could also add some balance if they play their way into the mix.
All teams with interest in Bellinger will have to determine just how big a bet they feel comfortable placing on his ability to rebound. The Dodgers clearly weren’t comfortable with his potential arbitration price — MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected an $18.1MM salary — but Bellinger will still command a weighty salary if enough teams join the bidding. Agent Scott Boras recently told Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic that Bellinger is likely to sign a one-year deal, and the brevity of that term could also serve to drive up the eventual price point. (Teams are typically far more willing to make aggressive bids on one-year deals than on multi-year arrangements.)
The question of how high to bid is a particularly pertinent one for a Rockies team that is already projected to shatter its previous franchise record — even with just one small signing on the docket so far this winter. The Rockies’ previous record for Opening Day payroll came in 2019, when they spent $145.3MM. Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez projects that they’re already up to $158.5MM. The Rockies will have to spend some money this offseason if they’re to have any hope of improving on another poor showing in 2022. Still, it’s fair to wonder whether the best use of their presumably limited resources will be to put down an eight-figure offer on a bounceback candidate, however high the ceiling may be.
National League Non-Tenders: 11/18/22
The deadline to tender contract to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7:00pm Central. Here’s a rundown of the players on National League teams that have been non-tendered today. This post will be updated as more decisions are revealed. All players non-tendered go directly to free agency
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for all arb-eligible players last month.
Later Updates
- The Reds have non-tendered righty Daniel Duarte and minor league outfielder Allan Cerda, taking both off the 40-man roster. Neither had been eligible for arbitration, but Cincinnati will send both into free agency without having to place either on waivers. Duarte made three relief appearances this year, his first as a big leaguer. Cerda, 23 next month, has yet to reach the majors. He hit .198/.350/.401 in 257 plate appearances in Double-A. Cincinnati also announced that six players designated for assignment earlier this week — Aristides Aquino, Jared Solomon, Kyle Dowdy, Derek Law, Art Warren and Jeff Hoffman — were all let go. Both Duarte and Cerda have already agreed to re-sign with Cincinnati on minor league deals, reports Mark Sheldon of MLB.com (Twitter link).
Earlier Moves
- The Braves freed a pair of 40-man roster spots by non-tendering minor league pitchers Brooks Wilson and Alan Rangel. Rangel spent most of this past season in Double-A, while Wilson didn’t pitch in 2022. Atlanta also announced that three players non-tendered earlier this week — Guillermo Heredia, Jackson Stephens and Silvino Bracho — have been let go.
- The Giants have non-tendered relievers Mauricio Llovera and Alex Young and infielder Donovan Walton, clearing three spots on the 40-man roster. Walton was acquired from the Mariners midseason and hit .158/.179/.303 in 24 games with San Francisco. Young made 24 appearances after his contract was purchased from the Guardians. Llovera pitched 17 times after signing a minor league deal last offseason. Additionally San Francisco non-tendered seven players who’d been designated for assignment earlier this week: Drew Strotman, Meibrys Viloria, Colton Welker, Jarlin Garcia, Dom Nunez, Sam Delaplane and Jason Vosler.
- The Pirates non-tendered lefty Manny Banuelos and catcher Tyler Heineman. Both had been designated for assignment earlier this week.
- The Diamondbacks non-tendered righty Reyes Moronta, the team announced. The reliever posted a 4.50 ERA in 17 outings with the Snakes after being claimed off waivers from the Dodgers.
- The Padres announced they’ve cut loose catcher Jorge Alfaro and righty Efrain Contreras. Alfaro had been projected at a $3.6MM salary this season, a hefty amount after a .246/.285/.383 season. Contreras hasn’t pitched in the majors; he had a tough year in High-A and loses his 40-man spot spot as a result.
- The Cubs have non-tendered center fielder Rafael Ortega, as well as minor league pitchers Brailyn Marquez and Alexander Vizcaino. Ortega has seen a decent amount of action the last two years and had a respectable .241/.331/.358 line through 371 plate appearances this past season. Nevertheless, the Cubs opted against a salary in the $1.7MM range for next year. Marquez has been a top pitching prospect but has battled injury issues for the past few years. Vizcaino was part of the Anthony Rizzo trade with the Yankees but didn’t pitch in the minors this year.
- The Nationals non-tendered righty Tommy Romero. He’d been designated for assignment earlier this week. Washington confirmed the previously-reported decisions to part with Luke Voit and Erick Fedde.
- The Brewers cut loose right-handers Trevor Gott, Jandel Gustave and Luis Perdomo. All three were part of Milwaukee’s middle innings mix, with Gustave’s 45 appearances the most among that group. Gott had a 4.15 ERA over 45 2/3 innings after signing a free agent deal last offseason.
- The Rockies non-tendered infielder/outfielder Garrett Hampson, the club announced. The 28-year-old had been projected for a $2.1MM salary. A speedster with the ability to play anywhere up the middle, Hampson just hasn’t hit at the big league level. He’s coming off a .211/.287/.307 showing through 226 plate appearances.
- The Mets announced they’ve non-tendered Sean Reid-Foley and confirmed they’re letting go of Dominic Smith, who’s non-tender was previously reported. This year, Reid-Foley made seven MLB appearances, tossing 10 innings of relief.
- The Dodgers have non-tendered infielder Edwin Rios and utilityman Luke Williams, per a club announcement. Los Angeles also confirmed the previously reported non-tender of former MVP Cody Bellinger. Rios has shown some offensive promise in the past and owns a .212/.299/.492 line through 112 big league games. He missed a good chunk of this past season with a hamstring strain. Williams was claimed off waivers from the Marlins recently; the Dodgers could look to bring him back on a minor league deal.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: 11/18/22
The deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7:00pm Central. There will be a frenzy of non-tenders and trades today, but also some signings.
For many players, there’s little pressure to agree to terms this week. The deadline for exchanging figures isn’t until January 13, with the hearings taking place in March. However, players that are borderline non-tender candidates might get a low-ball offer at this time, with the team hoping that the looming possibility of a non-tender compels the player to accept. As such, deals at this part of the baseball calendar have a higher likelihood of coming in under projections.
One new wrinkle from the new collective bargaining agreement is that all of these deals will be guaranteed. Previously, teams could cut a player during Spring Training and only pay a portion of the agreed-upon figure. However, the new CBA stipulates that any player who settles on a salary without going to a hearing will be subject to full termination pay, even if released prior to the beginning of the season.
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for each team’s arbitration-eligible players last month but, as mentioned, it’s not uncommon for the deals agreed to at this time to come in below projections. This post may be updated later as more agreements come in…
Latest
- The Tigers announced agreement on a deal with outfielder Austin Meadows. Financial terms are undisclosed. Meadows was projected for a $4MM salary. He’s coming off an injury-plagued first season in Detroit but is arbitration eligible twice more. [UPDATE: Meadows signed for $4.3MM, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post.]
- The Braves avoided arbitration with Mike Soroka on a $2.8MM contract, the club announced. It’s the same salary he’s made in each of the past two seasons, which is typical for an arbitration-eligible player who didn’t see any MLB action but was nevertheless tendered a contract. Soroka hasn’t pitched since 2020 on account of a pair of Achilles ruptures and some late-season elbow soreness, but he’s expected to compete for a rotation spot in Spring Training. He’s arbitration eligible once more next winter.
Earlier Deals
- The Pirates and infielder/outfielder Miguel Andujar agreed at $1.525MM, per Murray. Andujar was claimed off waivers from the Yankees in September.
- The Padres announced that they have agreed to a one-year contract with left-hander Jose Castillo. The terms have not been disclosed.
- The Diamondbacks announced they’ve agreed to a deal with reliever Cole Sulser. Financial terms haven’t been disclosed, but Sulser has been projected at $1MM. Arizona recently claimed him off waivers from the Marlins.
- The Cubs and right-hander Adrian Sampson agreed to a $1.9MM salary, while fellow right-hander Rowan Wick will take home a $1.55MM salary in 2023, according to Jordan Bastion of MLB.com. Sampson broke out in 2022, finishing with a 3.11 ERA across 104 1/3 innings. Wick tossed 64 innings of relief, finishing up with a 4.22 ERA.
- The Yankees and right-hander Lou Trivino agreed to a salary of $4.1MM, per Feinsand. Trivino had been a solid reliever for Oakland over the past couple of years but struggled to a 6.47 ERA with them in 2022. He was dealt to the Yankees and then righted the ship with a 1.66 ERA the rest of the way.
- The Rockies and Brent Suter avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $3MM salary, per Murray. Suter was claimed off waivers from the Brewers earlier today.
- The Brewers and righty Matt Bush have agreed at $1.85MM, per Murray. Bush came over from the Rangers in a deadline deal. He posted a 2.95 ERA prior to the deal and a 4.30 after.
- The Marlins and Dylan Floro are in agreement on a contract for 2023, reports Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. He’ll make $3.9MM, Mish reports. Floro tossed 53 2/3 innings in 2022 with a 3.02 ERA.
- The Brewers and right-hander Adrian Houser agreed on a $3.6MM salary, per Robert Murray of FanSided. The ground ball specialist saw his ERA jump from 3.22 in 2021 to 4.73 this year as his ground ball rate dropped from 59% to 46.7%. He’s likely the club’s sixth starter going into the winter and could jump into the rotation if someone gets injured.
- The Phillies and right-hander Sam Coonrod have agreed on a salary of $775K, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. He posted a 4.04 ERA in 2021 but was limited to just 12 2/3 innings this year due to a shoulder strain.
- The Tigers and left-hander Tyler Alexander agreed on a salary of $1.875MM, per Murray. Alexander got into 27 games in 2022, 17 of those being starts. His 4.81 ERA was certainly on the high side, but he had a 3.81 in 2021.
- The Yankees and shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $6M salary. You can read more about that here.
- The Braves and left-hander Tyler Matzek avoided arbitration by agreeing to a two-year deal. You can read more about that here.
- The Giants and outfielder Mike Yastrzemski avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $6.1MM deal, per Jeff Passan of ESPN. He first qualified for arbitration a year ago as a Super Two player and earned $3.7MM in 2022. He took a step back at the plate this year with a line of .214/.305/.392 but still provided value with his glovework.
Rockies Extend Tyler Kinley
3:47pm: It’s actually a $6.25MM total for the three years, Alexander clarifies, noting that the $750K buyout on the 2026 option is part of that sum. Kinley will be paid $1.2MM in 2023, $1.3MM in 2024 and $3MM in 2025. The 2026 option is valued at $5MM and comes with a $750K buyout. The 2025 and 2026 seasons contain escalators and incentives based on games finished.
2:34pm: The Rockies announced Friday that they’ve agreed to a three-year contract extension with reliever Tyler Kinley, spanning the 2023-25 seasons. The contract also contains a club option for the 2026 season. Kinley underwent elbow surgery in July that was expected to sideline him for around one year. Ari Alexander of KPRC first reported the agreement, adding that it’ll guarantee Kinley $7MM — $6.25MM in total salary from 2023-25, plus a $5MM option with a $750K buyout.
Kinley, 32 in January, appeared to be in the midst of a breakout season in Colorado prior to his injury. In 24 innings, he held opponents to just two earned runs on 21 hits and six walks with 27 strikeouts. That was good for a 0.75 ERA, 27% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate, and Kinley’s sky-high 16.7% swinging-strike rate seemed to portend the potential for even more strikeouts.
The hard-throwing Kinley, whose fastball averaged just shy of 96 mph in 2022, has steadily improved upon his command each season since 2019, dropping his walk rate from a ghastly 16.3% all the way to this year’s 6% mark. Unsurprisingly, the improved command has radically bolstered his results.
Whether Kinley can sustain that level of command remains to be seen. In addition to the general uncertainty that comes with any elbow surgery for a pitcher, Kinley’s 57% first-pitch strike rate in 2022 was actually worse than the 58.8% mark he posted back in 2019, when he walked more than 16% of his opponents. Sustaining such massive gains in walk rate while getting ahead in the count at a lesser rate than when he posted one of baseball’s highest walk rates will be a challenge.
Even if Kinley is able to sustain most of the improvements in his walk rate, there’s still surely some regression in store. The right-hander excelled at limiting home runs in 2019-20, but he didn’t yield a single long ball in this season’s 24 innings. It’s not realistic to expect any pitcher to completely avoid the home run ball, and even a regression to the strong 0.86 HR/9 mark Kinley yielded in 2019-20 would cause a notable uptick in his otherwise pristine ERA.
There’s obviously great risk in extending a 32-year-old reliever — particularly one who’ll miss at least half of the contract’s first season while recovering from elbow surgery. That said, the $7MM term of the three-year deal presents fairly minimal risk. Kinley would’ve been arbitration-eligible for the contract’s first two seasons, with the third year and the potential club option season representing would-be free agent campaigns.
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected a $1.3MM salary for Kinley in 2023, and if he returned in good health late in the summer, he’d likely have earned a modest bump on that number. If we assume his final two arb seasons would’ve cost something in the neighborhood of $3MM combined, the Rox are effectively paying $4MM for the right to control his first two free-agent years — only one of which is actually guaranteed to him. Viewed through that lens, the Rox are effectively guaranteeing Kinley’s final two arb seasons for the right to pay him about $8.25MM in his first two free-agent seasons. If Kinley is able to emerge as even a solid middle reliever, that’ll be a justifiable price tag. If not, the sting will be generally minimal, given the affordable nature of the guarantee.
Rockies Claim Brent Suter From Brewers
The Brewers announced that left-hander Brent Suter has been claimed off waivers by the Rockies.
Suter, 33, has been with the Brewers for over a decade now, since they drafted him back in June of 2012. He made his MLB debut in 2016, serving in a swing role over his first few seasons, making starts but also coming out of the bullpen. He’s gradually been moving towards more bullpen work, with 2022 being his first full season working exclusively in relief.
He made 54 appearances on the year and threw 66 2/3 innings in total with a 3.78 ERA. However, his rate stats indicate he was possibly lucky to keep runs off the board at that rate. His strikeout rate topped out at 29.5% in 2020 before dropping to 22% last year and 19.5% this year. His walk rate also trended in the wrong direction, going from 3.9% to 7.7% to 8.1% in that timeframe. His ground ball rate was just over 50% in the previous two seasons but fell to 45% in 2022.
His .265 batting average on balls in play was a 35-point drop from 2021, which likely helped him keep that ERA down. That might not be entirely luck, since he did limit the damage opposing hitters did against him. His hard hit rate was in the 96th percentile and his average exit velocity was in the 95th. That ability to keep batters in check is surely appealing for a Rockies club that plays in the most hitter-friendly park in the league.
The Brewers had a huge arbitration class going into this winter, with Suter one of 18 players to qualify. Given the club’s history of budget-conscious decisions, it seemed likely that at least some of those players would end up moving off the roster in one way or another. Suter was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn a salary of $3.1MM in his final year of eligibility. The deadline to tender contracts for arbitration-eligible players is tonight, but it seems Milwaukee wasn’t planning on tendering Suter and put him on waivers instead. The Rockies, based on this claim, are presumably comfortable with paying Suter in that range.
With Suter gone, the Brewers have Hoby Milner as their sole lefty in the bullpen, though starters like Aaron Ashby or Ethan Small could theoretically end up working in relief if they get bumped from the rotation. For the Rockies, they now have two southpaws, with Suter joining Lucas Gilbreath.
Rockies, Dinelson Lamet Avoid Arbitration
November 17: Lamet will make $5MM in 2023, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post.
November 16: The Rockies announced that they have agreed to terms on a one-year deal with right-hander Dinelson Lamet, avoiding arbitration. The terms have not yet been revealed but MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a salary of $4.8MM.
Lamet, 30, has been on a bit of a roller coaster in the past few years. In the shortened 2020 season, he seemingly broke out with an excellent campaign with the Padres. He made 12 starts and threw 69 innings, posting a 2.09 ERA along with a 34.8% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate and 36.9% ground ball rate.
Unfortunately, the next two years saw him fall from those incredible heights. A forearm issue sent him to the injured list twice in 2021, limiting him to just 47 innings on the year, which included a move to the bullpen. The Padres kept him as a reliever going into 2022, but Lamet didn’t take to the new role. He posted a 9.49 ERA over 12 1/3 innings before getting flipped to the Brewers as part of the Josh Hader trade.
Lamet never pitched for the Brewers, as they designated him for assignment just two days after acquiring him. David Stearns, who was Milwaukee’s president of baseball operations at the time, said that Lamet “was included in the trade to help balance out the deal” but that “as subsequent transactions played out, the roster fit became a little tougher.” It’s possible that the Brewers just took on Lamet to offset some salary for the Padres or that their subsequent acquisitions of Trevor Rosenthal and Matt Bush squeezed him out of their plans. Either way, the Rockies were the beneficiary as they claimed him off waivers.
Lamet had a much stronger second half after joining the Rockies. He got into 19 games for them and threw 20 innings, posting a 4.05 ERA in that time. His strikeout rate jumped to 33.3% after being at 25.8% with San Diego. He also dropped his walk rate from 14.5% to 11.5%.
The Rockies often struggle to attract pitchers to join their club, given the hitter-friendly nature of their home ballpark. By claiming Lamet off waivers, they’ve grabbed a guy who had a dominant 2020 season and, though he seemed lost for a while, finished 2022 on a strong note. If he can recapture his past form, he could be a valuable piece for the club.
Rockies Acquire Nolan Jones From Guardians
The Guardians have traded infielder Nolan Jones to the Rockies for infield prospect Juan Brito, according to an announcement from Cleveland. It’s an out-of-the-blue swap of talented young players.
Jones, a former second-round pick, appeared among Baseball America’s list of the game’s top 100 prospects each season from 2019-21. He consistently put up quality numbers in the minor leagues, posting some of the game’s highest walk rates to run top-tier on-base marks. Jones struggled a bit during his first crack at Triple-A in 2021 but still entered this year among BA’s top ten Cleveland prospects.
The 24-year-old started the season back at Triple-A, but he performed better in his second go-around at the level. In 248 plate appearances, he put up a .276/.368/.463 line with nine home runs. The Guardians called him up for the first time in July, and he picked up his first 92 big league trips to the plate. Jones hit only .244/.309/.372 while striking out a third of the time in that limited look, but there’s still plenty to be intrigued about in his long-term profile.
Jones owns a .252/.361/.443 mark across 655 plate appearances at the Triple-A level. He’s walked in 13.7% of his trips to the dish there while connecting on 22 home runs and 36 doubles. A lofty 28.4% strikeout rate leads to some questions about his bat-to-ball skills, but the combination of power and plate discipline makes him an intriguing addition for the Rox.
The Philadelphia native came up as a third baseman, although he increasingly saw more action in the corner outfield this year. Prospect evaluators have long suggested he could be an adequate defender at the hot corner, but the position was obviously spoken for long-term in Cleveland by José Ramírez. The Rockies already have a franchise third baseman of their own — albeit not one of Ramírez’s caliber — in Ryan McMahon. With McMahon playing elite defense at the hot corner, Jones will probably factor more immediately into the corner outfield and designated hitter mix. The Rockies have Charlie Blackmon for another year to split time between right field and DH, while Kris Bryant will hopefully stay healthy and lock down left field. C.J. Cron is the presumptive starter at first base, but Colorado can rotate Jones’ left-handed bat into the mix alongside Cron while also keeping Blackmon off his feet more often.
Turning to Cleveland’s end of the swap, they land an interesting lower-level prospect from an improving Colorado farm system. Brito, who recently turned 21, spent the entire 2022 season in Low-A. He hit .286/.407/.470 with 11 home runs through 497 plate appearances, walking in an excellent 15.7% of his trips against a meager 14.3% strikeout percentage. Baseball America only placed the Dominican Republic native 30th on its midseason ranking of the Colorado farm system, but Guardians evaluators are clearly far more bullish on his upside.
Brito has played almost exclusively second base in the minors. He’s not regarded as a particularly impressive defender or athlete, but he’s a switch-hitting middle infielder with an excellent minor league track record. The Guardians have prioritized players with impressive bat-to-ball skills and the ability to play a key defensive position, and Brito certainly fits that mold.
With Brito already eligible for the Rule 5 draft, Cleveland immediately selected him onto the 40-man roster. The Guardians often navigate roster churn around the Rule 5 date as they swap out depth types or players who are becoming more costly via arbitration for further away talent. This is not that kind of move, however. Both players occupy a 40-man spot, and neither is within two years of reaching arbitration. Both can still be optioned to the minor leagues — Jones for one more year, Brito three times. Brito surely won’t factor into the MLB mix right away, but this marks a fascinating swap of unproven young players — one seemingly motivated by each team simply valuing the player they’re bringing in more than the player they’re shipping away, not by contractual provisions or roster reshuffling.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.