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Quick Hits: Red Sox, Hill, Twins, Cruz, Rockies, Black

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Rich Hill has already emphatically stated that he’ll be back for 2022, a season in which he’ll be 42 years old. But would the Red Sox be interested in a reunion with the Massachusetts native? “There is an interest, without a doubt,” Hill told Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. “There’s a need on the other end. [But] the need for starting pitching is very apparent throughout the league — not just in Boston. It’s also many other clubs that need it.”

The lefty is certainly correct about the demand throughout the league, as starting pitchers have been flying off the shelves so far this offseason. In just over three weeks since free agency began, Eduardo Rodriguez, Justin Verlander, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, Anthony DeSclafani and Andrew Heaney have all been inked already, with Alex Wood reportedly close to signing as well. Despite his age, Hill figures to garner lots of interest as well, given his solid 2021 campaign. His tally of 158 2/3 innings was the second-highest of his career, trailing only the 195 innings he logged as a 27-year-old in 2007. Between the Rays and Mets last year, he put up an ERA of 3.86 with a strikeout rate of 22.7% and walk rate of 8.3%, producing 1.7 fWAR in the process.

The Red Sox have already lost Eduardo Rodriguez to the Tigers, leaving them with a rotation of Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta and Tanner Houck, with Connor Seabold, Kutter Crawford and Garrett Whitlock among the options for the back end. There’d certainly be room to add Hill into the mix, though whether they prefer Hill to some other options on the market remains to be seen.

More tidbits from around the league…

  • After an excellent 258-game stretch with the Twins over three different seasons, Nelson Cruz was traded to the Rays before last year’s deadline. Although the club isn’t completely ruling out a reunion, it doesn’t seem like it’s going to be the top of their to-do list this winter. Dan Hayes of The Athletic spoke to GM Thad Levine about the situation. “In a most ideal case, when you’re building a roster you would like to have a DH spot as an open position to rotate guys through and give them a partial day of rest,” he said. “We have chosen to go a different route in each of the last couple seasons because we felt we had an elite DH.” As noted by Hayes, the club is going to be primarily focused on pitching for now, which makes sense given that they’ve lost Jose Berrios to trade, Michael Pineda to free agency and Kenta Maeda to Tommy John surgery. Cruz also struggled after being traded to the Rays, hitting .226/.283/.442, for a wRC+ of 96, raising questions about how productive he will be as a 41-year-old in 2022. But Levine still left the door open a crack, saying they “want to keep the DH spot open to allow for a bunch of players to rotate through that position, unless something exceptional comes our way, at which point we’d have to review it.”
  • Bud Black is heading into his sixth season as the skipper of the Rockies, which is also the final year of his current contract. In a recent mailbag, Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post says he heard that extension talks were ongoing, but that he “checked that out with general manager Bill Schmidt, who told me that wasn’t true. Schmidt added, however, that talks with Black are certainly possible in the coming months.” Schmidt was the VP of scouting with the Rockies from 2007 until May of 2021. At that point, he was named interim GM, in the wake of the resignation of Jeff Bridich, before officially getting the job last month. As he enters his first offseason in the GM chair, it’s unclear whether he considers Black to be part of the future he envisions for the franchise. Black, 64, has a record of 349-359 in his time with the Rockies and an overall record of 998-1072 when combined with his nine seasons with the Padres.

Mets Claim Antonio Santos

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The Mets have claimed right-hander Antonio Santos off waivers from the Rockies, per a club announcement. Between this claim and the Mets’ earlier signing of outfielder Nick Plummer to a Major League contract, the team is up to 39 players on its 40-man roster.

Santos, 25, has spent parts of the past two seasons with the Rox but yielded 17 runs through 17 1/3 innings in his brief MLB auditions. He was also hit hard in 45 1/3 Triple-A frames in 2021, posting a 7.94 ERA with a 15.1% strikeout rate against a 12.7% walk rate. That said, Santos averages nearly 96 mph with his heater and complemented that primary offering with four secondary pitches.

Despite his impressive velocity, Santos hasn’t missed bats at a huge level in the minors (19.1% strikeout rate). However, he’s also walked only 5.1% of his opponents in the minors, and the resulting 14.1 K-BB% is at least somewhat intriguing when paired with that fastball and a deep arsenal of potential second/third pitches. Santos still has a minor league option remaining, too, so he can give the Mets some depth and flexibility in the bullpen this winter.

Wade Davis Announces Retirement

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Three-time All-Star and 2015 World Series champion Wade Davis announced his retirement after a 13-year MLB career Wednesday (via a tweet from the Royals).

Wade Davis

Davis, 36, began his pro career as a third-round pick by the Devil Rays back in 2004. He ranked not only among Tampa Bay’s top prospects but among the best farmhands in all of baseball from 2007-10, while developing as a rotation hopeful in a perennially strong Tampa Bay system.

After a strong run through the minors, Davis debuted as a 23-year-old in 2009, going on to enjoy some success as a member of the Rays’ rotation for the next couple of seasons. From 2009-11, Davis started 64 games and pitched to a 4.22 ERA out of the Tampa rotation — albeit with lackluster strikeout and walk rates, as well as less-flattering marks from fielding-independent pitching metrics.

A move to the bullpen in 2012 brought about a sub-3.00 ERA and nearly doubled Davis’ strikeout rate, but the Royals still had designs on moving him back into the rotation when acquiring Davis and teammate James Shields in what remains one of the more surprising and impactful blockbuster trades in recent memory. Shields, controlled two years at the time, and Davis (controlled for three) went to the Royals in exchange for then-prospects Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard. It was a massive deal that had long-term implications for both clubs — a trade that set the stage for Kansas City’s eventual back-to-back World Series appearances.

Davis didn’t fare too well in his return to starting pitching, as his first season with Kansas City culminated in a 5.32 ERA in 135 2/3 innings. The Royals put Davis back in the ’pen following those struggles, and Davis joined Greg Holland, Kelvin Herrera and (in 2015) Ryan Madson in anchoring some of the most imposing bullpens of the past decade. The dominant relief corps that Kansas City rode to a 2014 World Series loss and a 2015 World Series title, in many ways, helped to drive the emphasis teams place on cultivating a deep collection of power-armed relievers for ideal postseason usage.

Davis not only thrived in his return to the bullpen — he broke out as one of the best relief pitchers on the planet. He posted a flat 1.00 ERA with a 39.1% strikeout rate in 2014 — a brilliant strikeout rate even by today’s standards but a nearly unparalleled mark back in ’14, when the leaguewide strikeout rate was nearly four percent lower than at its recent peak in 2020. Davis finished eighth in Cy Young voting that season and somehow followed up with an even better year in 2015, when he posted a sub-1.00 ERA and landed sixth in AL Cy Young voting.

Davis’ dominance extended well beyond the regular season in that pair of World Series campaigns with Kansas City. He was almost comedically overpowering in the postseason, performing on a completely different level than the opposing lineups through which he breezed.  In 25 innings of postseason play from 2014-15, Davis allowed one earned run on just 14 hits with a staggering 38-to-5 K/BB ratio.

The Royals embarked on something of a rebuild in the 2016-17 offseason, as most of their World Series core reached or was nearing free agency. That prompted the Royals to flip Davis to the reigning World Champion Cubs, netting eventual American League home run leader Jorge Soler in return. Davis’ dominance largely continued in Chicago. In all, from 2014-17, Davis made three All-Star teams while pitching to a 1.45 ERA with 79 saves and a 33.1% strikeout rate in 241 1/3 regular-season innings (plus plenty of postseason mastery).

It was wholly unsurprising that he was in demand as a free agent that winter, and the Rockies rewarded Davis with a three-year, $52MM contract that established a new average annual salary record for a reliever at $17.33MM. Davis led the National League with 43 saves in 2018, his first season with the Rox, but things unraveled thereafter. Oblique and shoulder injuries weighed Davis down in subsequent seasons, and the Rockies released him in Sept. 2020 with just weeks remaining on that three-year pact.

The 2021 season marked something of a full-circle campaign for Davis, who returned to the Royals on a minor league deal and broke camp in the team’s bullpen. Forearm and continued shoulder troubles sent Davis to the injured list on multiple occasions, however, and his once-96.5 mph heater sat at a greatly diminished 92.8 mph. Davis managed 42 2/3 innings in relief, but he was hit hard and finished out the season with a 6.75 ERA.

All told, Davis will conclude his career at 63-55 with 141 saves, 270 games finished, a 3.94 ERA and 929 strikeouts in 990 1/3 regular-season innings. He tacked on an additional 40 innings of 1.80 ERA ball, four wins, eight saves and 57 strikeouts in a sensational postseason career. Davis made more than $87MM in a 13-year career and will forever be remembered by Royals faithful for the indelible role he played in Kansas City’s baseball renaissance in 2014-15.

Photo courtesy of Imagn/USA Today Sports.

Rockies Select Three Players

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The Rockies on Friday announced three players have been selected to the 40-man roster: lefty Ryan Rolison, righty Noah Davis and infielder Ezequiel Tovar. All three are now protected from this offseason’s Rule 5 Draft. Colorado’s 40-man roster is up to a total of 39 players.

Rolison, 24, had a rough season in Triple-A this year but is still regarded as one of the better pitching prospects in a thin Rockies system. The 2018 first-rounder was clobbered for a 5.91 ERA in 45 2/3 frames with the Rockies’ top affiliate. An appendectomy operation interrupted his 2021 season and kept him on the shelf for a notable chunk of the summer, but the lefty pitched well prior to that surgery. He’s generally regarded as a potential big league starter with a full four-pitch mix — the type of prospect the Rockies are lacking in the upper minors.

Davis, an 11th-round pick by the Reds in 2018, came to the Rockies in their deadline Mychal Givens swap. He’s yet to advance to the Double-A level but did notch a 3.60 ERA with a 25.2% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate in 106 innings at Class-A Advanced between the two organizations. Ranked 18th among Rockies prospects at MLB.com, he’s seen as a potential fifth starter.

Tovar, a slick-fielding shortstop, split the 2021 season between the Rockies’ two Class-A levels and posted a .287/.322/.475 batting line. Most of his damage came in Low-A, and scouting reports on Tovar question how much he’ll ever hit against more advanced pitching. Tovar’s 2021 numbers were sound, however, and if he can continue to defy expectations at the plate he could factor into the big league equation by the 2023 season.

Rockies Sign Elias Diaz To Three-Year Extension

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The Rockies are keeping their catcher around beyond next season, announcing a three-year extension with Elias Díaz. The deal buys out his final year of arbitration-eligibility and first two years of free agency. Díaz will reportedly be guaranteed $14.5MM over its entirety, with the specific salary breakdown yet to be reported.

It’s a nice birthday present for the MAS+ Agency client, who turned 31 yesterday. Díaz has spent the past two seasons in Denver, starting the majority of the team’s games behind the dish in 2021. He’s coming off a nice season, hitting .246/.310/.464 with 18 home runs across 371 plate appearances. Those bottom line results are inflated somewhat by playing his home games at Coors Field, but it’s decent production even after factoring in that favorable environment. By measure of wRC+ — which includes a park adjustment — Díaz’s hitting was about three percentage points better than that of the league average catcher.

That’s one of the better showings of his career. The right-handed hitting backstop entered the 2021 campaign with just a .248/.300/.355 mark across 888 plate appearances between the Pirates and Colorado. He made similar strides on the other side of the ball, rating as an above-average pitch framer (per Statcast) this past season for the first time in his five-year tenure. While he’s drawn mixed reviews as a receiver over the course of his career, he’s consistently done a strong job shutting down the running game. Díaz has cut down 30.4% of attempted base-stealers as a big leaguer, a mark that’s a few percentage points north of the league average in that time.

The Rockies clearly believe Díaz’s numbers this past season better reflect his true talent, and they’ll place a fairly modest bet he can continue to be a capable #1 catcher over the coming years. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected Díaz to land a 2022 salary in the $2.6MM range if he’d proceeded through arbitration. Essentially, the Rockies are tacking on around $12MM in additional money to buy themselves two more years of team control. That’s a bit below the $16MM the Braves guaranteed Travis d’Arnaud on a two-year extension in August (although d’Arnaud’s deal also contained a 2024 club option).

The Rox shouldn’t have much difficulty fitting Díaz’s deal on the books. Colorado entered today with a projected payroll in the $104MM range, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s right in line with their 2021 season-opening tally, but they only have around $56MM in guaranteed 2023 commitments at the moment, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. With the Rockies planning to increase payroll over the coming two seasons, this extension shouldn’t serve as much of an impediment to future additions.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported the Rockies and Díaz had agreed on a three-year extension. Thomas Harding of MLB.com reported the $14.5MM guarantee.

Image courtesy of USA TODAY Sports.

Rockies Notes: Shortstop, McMahon, Free Agency, Marquez

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With Trevor Story set to decline the qualifying offer in search of a multi-year contract elsewhere, the Rockies enter the offseason with a question mark at shortstop for the first time in years. Among the options under consideration: moving third baseman Ryan McMahon up the defensive spectrum to short, reports Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post.

“(Moving McMahon) is something we have discussed,” Colorado general manager Bill Schmidt told Saunders. “Ryan has good range and that’s something we saw last year when he played third base with the shift on.” While McMahon told Saunders he’d yet to hear anything from the organization about that possibility, he sounded amenable to the idea. “I’d like to think that I could work at any (position) and become at least a solid defender there,” the 26-year-old said.

Kicking McMahon over to shortstop on a regular basis would be quite the risk. Not only has he never started a game there in the major leagues, he’s logged all of three innings at the position in his professional career. The California native moved from shortstop to third base in high school, and he’s bounced between the hot corner, second base and first base as a pro.

As Schmidt suggested, though, McMahon’s coming off an excellent defensive season at multiple spots on the diamond. Defensive Runs Saved estimated he was twelve runs above average over 848 2/3 innings at third base (a position at which he was a Gold Glove finalist) and pegged him as an incredible nine runs better than average in just 368 1/3 frames at second base. Statcast credited him with twelve Outs Above Average between the two positions, a mark that tied for tenth among infielders league-wide.

Were the Rockies to address the position internally, it seems McMahon is likelier to shoulder it than Brendan Rodgers. While Rodgers came up as a shortstop prospect, he’s spent the bulk of his time at second base in recent seasons. That was primarily in deference to Story, but Schmidt reiterated when speaking with Saunders that the club would prefer to keep Rodgers at the keystone.

Of course, the Rox aren’t foreclosing the possibility of addressing shortstop from outside the organization. Schmidt told Saunders the front office is exploring the free agent market. A full-fledged pursuit at one of the market’s top shortstops seems unlikely, but the club could pursue a shorter-term agreement with a player like Andrelton Simmons or Freddy Galvis to at least stabilize the defense.

While a run at one of the top shortstops probably won’t be in the cards, the Rockies have been expected to target a power-hitting outfielder over the coming months. Schmidt confirmed when speaking with Nick Groke of the Athletic the front office sees an addition in the grass as the “best place” for a meaningful upgrade to the lineup. Kyle Schwarber, Chris Taylor, Avisaíl García, Jorge Soler and Michael Conforto are among a fairly strong group of free agent outfielders available.

Signing Taylor or Conforto — both of whom rejected qualifying offers from their previous clubs — would cost the Rockies their third-highest pick in the 2022 draft. With the Rockies facing an uphill battle to compete in a loaded NL West next year, there’s a case that Colorado should prioritize future draft considerations over nearer-term adds.

Schmidt isn’t ruling out a run at a qualified free agent, though, telling Groke he’d be open to surrendering draft compensation in the right scenario. “You have to take it case by case and explore your options,” the veteran executive said. “You can’t blanket say, ‘There’s a draft pick compensation, we’re out.’ You have to consider who the player is, what the acquisition cost is, and what are your alternatives.”

Schmidt’s win-now attitude is the latest reaffirmation that Colorado brass doesn’t view themselves being far from contention. It’s unsurprising given that stance that the Rockies aren’t expected to trade staff ace Germán Márquez this offseason, writes Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. While Colorado could surely bring back a massive haul for a talented, controllable rotation building block like Márquez, they seemingly gave very little consideration to moving the 26-year-old at this past summer’s trade deadline. Instead, it seems the right-hander will be back for his third consecutive Opening Day start in purple and black.

Trevor Story To Reject Qualifying Offer

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Confirming a widely expected development, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports that Trevor Story will not accept the Rockies’ qualifying offer ahead of tomorrow’s deadline. As such, he’ll forego the one-year, $18.4MM deal and test the open market as part of a historic class of high-end free agent shortstops.

Assuming Story does not ultimately re-sign with Colorado, the Rox will receive a compensation pick between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A presuming Story signs for $50MM or more, or a pick between the second round and Competitive Balance Round B should he sign for less than $50MM. The former is, of course, more likely; MLBTR has him pegged for six years and $126MM.

Perhaps the more intriguing news in Saunders’ report is that the list of teams who’ve checked in with the shortstop (Saunders counts 8) does not include the Rockies. While Story is widely expected to leave the Mile High City this winter, news that Colorado hasn’t even checked in with their longtime star’s camp is noteworthy — and makes their decision not to trade him at this year’s trade deadline all the more puzzling. Per a June report from Saunders, Story made it clear to Rockies’ management he had little interest in engaging in extension talks (perhaps related to the club’s handling of Nolan Arenado following his extension), and letting him walk without at least the appearance of a fight may not endear new GM Bill Schmidt to the Colorado fanbase.

Though Story’s walk-year numbers (.251/.329/.471, with an OPS+ of 103) hardly represent his strongest showing, his career baseline of .272/.340/.523 (112 OPS+) tells a different tale, particularly given Story’s consistently stellar glovework (69 DRS across six seasons) at a premium position. The relative mediocrity of Story’s 2021 may also have been driven by an elbow injury that sent him to the 10-day IL in late May. An MRI at the time revealed no structural damage, and the shortstop looked much more like his old self in the second half, posting an .843 OPS (just below his career .863 mark).

Story’s OPS+ numbers take the effect of Coors Field into account, but it is worth noting that his home/road splits are significant; his career OPS at Coors (.972) dwarfs his career mark (.752) closer to sea level. This may give teams pause in offering Story the sort of mega-deal that Carlos Correa and Corey Seager (and possibly Marcus Semien) are likely to receive, but he remains a fairly safe bet to at least push nine figures of guaranteed money.

Presuming Story ultimately departs, the Rockies do have an in-house replacement at the ready in former top prospect Brendan Rodgers, who mostly played second base in 2021 but also served as Story’s deputy at short. The versatility of Ryan McMahon (who played second and third in his breakout 2021) and speedster Garrett Hampson (who’s seen time at five positions in the bigs) gives the club a chance to get creative in putting its infield together. It may also open a space for power-hitting corner infielder Elehuris Montero, the Rox’ number-four prospect per MLB.com, to make it to Denver in 2022.

Rockies Re-Sign Jhoulys Chacin

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Right-hander Jhoulys Chacin has agreed on a one-year deal to return to the Rockies, as per Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette (via Twitter). The team has announced the signing. Chacin’s deal is worth $1.25MM, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (via Twitter).

Chacin, 34 in January, had his best years in purple from 2009 to 2014. He returned to Colorado last season, making 46 appearances, mostly out of the bullpen. Though it was a different role than the last time Chacin pitched for the Rockies, he put together his best season since 2018 nevertheless, logging 64 1/3 innings with a 4.34 ERA/4.63 FIP.

Chacin’s best season overall came in that 2018 season when he made 35 starts for a playoff-bound Brewers’ squad that won 96 games and the NL Central crown. Chacin won a career-high 15 games with a 3.50 ERA/4.03 FIP in 192 2/3 innings. He kept it up in the postseason, making three starts and giving up just two earned runs over 12 1/3 innings, which included a game two victory over the Rockies in the NLDS.

Though Chacin has more career playoff innings against the Rockies than for them, they have nonetheless shared a productive partnership over the years. Chacin figures to remain in the bullpen as a multi-inning option in 2022. Overall, Chacin owns a 4.06 ERA/4.08 FIP in 1,388 1/3 innings across 13 seasons with the Rockies, Brewers, Braves, Diamondbacks, Angels, Padres, and Red Sox. He surpassed 10 years of service time last season.

Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies

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The likely departure of Trevor Story will only hurt a team that has already struggled to generate offense, so landing some hitters who can produce both at home and on the road is the first order of business for Rockies general manager Bill Schmidt.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Antonio Senzatela, SP: $50.5MM through 2026 ($14MM club option for 2027)
  • German Marquez, SP: $28.5MM through 2023 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $16MM club option for 2024)
  • C.J. Cron, 1B: $14.5MM through 2023
  • Scott Oberg, RP: $7MM through 2022 ($8MM club option for 2023)

Other Financial Commitments

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Charlie Blackmon, OF: $21MM player option for 2022 (exercised; Blackmon also has a $10MM player option for 2023, and has already said he will exercise that option as well)
  • Ian Desmond, IF/OF: $15MM club option for 2022 (declined, Desmond received $2MM buyout)

Free Agents

When Jeff Bridich stepped down from the general manager job back in April, the Rockies announced they would look for a new head of baseball operations after the season, with an interim GM filling the role for the remainder of the 2021 campaign.  As it happened, the Rox made their choice early, deciding to elevate interim GM and longtime front office employee Bill Schmidt into the full-time job during the final weekend of the regular season.  As team president/COO Greg Feasel put it, Schmidt impressed upper management to the point that “he didn’t give us a choice…I mean, how many times do you need to be hit over the head with a bat?  And he was the right guy for us at the right time.”

Given how the Rockies often promote from within and place such a large premium on continuity within the organization, Schmidt’s official hiring wasn’t a surprise.  However, for Colorado fans frustrated by their team’s lack of overall success, Rockies owner Dick Monfort’s track record for loyalty is a double-edged sword that seems to prevent new perspectives and new strategies from filtering into the front office.

In fairness to Schmidt, he is a veteran baseball man with his own ideas, so it is maybe too easy to just presume that things will be business as usual at Coors Field.  And, having their GM position decided early did allow the Rockies to get a quick jump on some notable offseason business — inking Antonio Senzatela to a five-year contract extension, and then keeping C.J. Cron off the free agent market by signing the first baseman to a new two-year, $14.5MM deal.

Cron was the more pressing concern since he was just weeks away from the open market, but it isn’t all that surprising he’d welcome staying in one place after changing teams in each of the last four offseasons.  Playing in Denver certainly seemed to agree with Cron, who hit .281/.375/.530 with 28 home runs over 547 plate appearances, fueled by big home/road splits (1.073 OPS at Coors Field, .734 OPS in away games).

Cron certainly did enough to merit that extension, and keeping him in the fold helps reinforce Colorado’s lineup.  That said, Cron’s performance is endemic of the 2021 season as a whole for Rockies hitters, who batted a league-worst .217/.291/.352 (73 wRC+) on the road.  Colorado was only 26-54 in away games, and even at home, the Rockies’ cumulative .280/.341/.475 slash line translated to only a 90 wRC+.

It has now been several years since the Rox have had a productive offense both at home and on the road. The team’s inability to find consistent hitting has been underscored by the fact that the rotation has been perhaps as stable recently as at any point in the franchise’s history.  On the rare occasions when everything is clicking, it is perhaps understandable why Monfort and Schmidt have seemed so insistent that this team isn’t as far away from contention as it seems.  In practice, however, the Rockies have had three straight losing seasons, a flawed roster, a thin minor league system, and many needs to address if they’re going to make any noise in a very competitive NL West.

Let’s begin with the rotation, as German Marquez is the ace of a staff that will return Senzatela, Austin Gomber, and Kyle Freeland. This quartet was collectively decent if unspectacular in 2021.  Senzatela’s extension now locks him in with Marquez (controlled through 2024 via his own extension) and Gomber (controlled through 2025 via arbitration) as long-term pieces for Colorado, even if guaranteeing $50.5MM to Senzatela seemed a little surprising since the righty has had some ups-and-downs over his five MLB seasons.

Extending a pitcher who has had some success at Coors Field does seem like a logical move for the Rockies, considering their difficulties in bringing any premium free agent arms to the thin air.  Barring a big and unlikely overpay, the Rox will be looking to add starting depth through minor league signings and veterans perhaps looking for a bounce-back year.  In-house starting options include Peter Lambert back from Tommy John surgery, rookie Ryan Feltner, and top pitching prospect Ryan Rolison should make his MLB debut in 2022, though none of that group can be counted on to reliably fill a rotation spot just yet.

Trading for a veteran hurler who can eat innings and keep the ball on the ground would be a good idea, and this is one area where Schmidt can easily distinguish himself.  Bridich didn’t make many trades over his six-plus years as the GM, and there weren’t a lot of clear wins in that limited number (the Marquez/Jake McGee deal notwithstanding).

Of course, re-signing Jon Gray would also address that rotation need, though it remains to be seen if a reunion is feasible now that Gray has reached free agency.  The Rockies resisted dealing Gray at the trade deadline because they were so intent on keeping him, and then made an extension offer in the area of $35-$40MM over three years.  This late-season offer was seemingly the only deal officially presented to Gray and his representatives, and when it was rejected, the Rockies then didn’t issue Gray a one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer.  The right-hander now doesn’t have any draft pick compensation attached to his services, making him an even more attractive option for other teams in need of rotation help.

It all adds up to a curious sequence of events, as now Colorado risks losing Gray for nothing.  The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders reported that Gray “likely would have accepted” the QO, so the Rockies would’ve been paying Gray roughly $5MM more in average annual value than they were comfortable with, given the parameters of their extension offer.   Yet, would this have really been that unpalatable a situation, considering how seriously the club seemed to want to retain Gray?  Then again, perhaps even that intent could be called into question if the Rox did make Gray just that one offer, unless the Rockies simply put way too much faith in Gray accepting that three-year extension.

Paying an extra $5MM than expected for Gray would’ve had an impact on Colorado’s payroll availability, but Feasel has stated that the team plans to slowly increase its spending over the next two years.  With roughly $103MM (as per Roster Resource) committed to the 2022 payroll, Feasel said the Rox plan to be back in the $150MM range by 2023, which was what the club was spending in 2018-19 before the pandemic.  That $47MM spending bump isn’t small, though it remains to be seen if the majority of that increase may happen next winter instead of over the coming few months, particularly since the collective bargaining agreement talks could significantly alter baseball’s business rules going forward.

It could also be that spending extra money on a starting pitcher didn’t fit the team’s greatest needs, as Schmidt has said that improving the bullpen and adding power to the lineup are the top priorities.  On the relief pitching front, don’t expect to see any expensive names added, as the Rockies have many of the same issues in attracting relievers as they do in attracting prominent starters (plus, the McGee/Wade Davis/Bryan Shaw contracts undoubtedly still linger in the front office’s memory).

Carlos Estevez enters the offseason as the closer, with Lucas Gilbreath and Robert Stephenson doing the most in 2021 to lay claims on setup roles or even occasional save opportunities.  Daniel Bard’s projected $4.8MM arbitration number is boosted by the saves he did accumulate before losing the closer’s job, but Bard pitched decently well outside the ninth inning and will likely be retained.  Tyler Kinley might be a non-tender candidate, but he isn’t expensive and offers some durability.  Along those same lines, Jhoulys Chacin ate some innings and posted decent numbers in his return to Colorado as a reliever, so the Rox could look to re-sign the veteran.  Since Gilbreath is the only left-hander among any of these bullpen names mentioned, the Rockies will probably target a southpaw or two.

This brings us to the position player mix, and the big gap that exists at shortstop since Trevor Story will be playing elsewhere in 2022.  Story is another of the many pending free agents the Rockies chose to keep at their quiet trade deadline, as Schmidt stated that rival teams didn’t present any offers more attractive than the compensatory draft pick Colorado will receive via the qualifying offer when Story signs with a new team.

The infield vacancy does look like it will be at shortstop, as while Brendan Rodgers has played plenty of shortstop in the minors, the expectation is that the Rockies will keep him at second base.  Rodgers’ first full MLB season was pretty successful, as he hit .284/.328/.470 with 15 homers over 415 PA after a hamstring strain delayed his season debut until May 21.  The former third overall pick now looks like a player to be counted on for regular work going forward, giving Colorado one building block in place.

In fact, the Rockies’ infield mix is pretty settled apart from shortstop.  Cron is at first base, Rodgers at second, Ryan McMahon is at third base, and Elias Diaz is lined up for regular catching duties with Dom Nunez as either the backup or as a platoon partner if his hitting improves.  It isn’t a bad group on paper, yet they were only truly dangerous at Coors Field — Rodgers was the only regular who really hit well in away games, though he countered those splits with subpar production at home.

Ezequiel Tovar looks on pace to be Colorado’s shortstop of the future, though since he’s only 20 years old and hasn’t even played Double-A ball, he isn’t a realistic option until 2023 at the earliest.  If the Rockies have enough confidence in Tovar’s bat to project him as an everyday player, they might only be looking for a short-term shortstop addition to serve as a bridge for the next year or two.  This could put the Rox in line for a relatively inexpensive veteran free agent in the Andrelton Simmons/Freddy Galvis tier, or a utilityman like Leury Garcia or Marwin Gonzalez could help at shortstop and at other positions.  Keeping with the utility theme, re-signing Chris Owings would also seem like a realistic option, even if Owings hasn’t played much shortstop in the last few years.

If the Rockies are going to add some offensive pop and are willing to spend some money to do it, the outfield is the obvious target area.  Longtime Rockie Charlie Blackmon exercised his player option and looks to have one of the corner spots (probably right field) accounted for the next two years, leaving two slots open to a collection of players that includes Sam Hilliard, Raimel Tapia, Connor Joe, Yonathan Daza, and Ryan Vilade.  This group isn’t bereft of talent or potential, but there also isn’t anyone there who would or should preclude the Rox from adding a proven veteran slugger, particularly if the National League adds the DH next year.

Starling Marte is the clear choice as the top center fielder on the market, though a versatile player like Chris Taylor could handle center field, shortstop, and several other spots around the diamond.  Taylor, for what it’s worth, has consistently torched the Rockies and hit well at Coors Field as a visiting player.

Signing Taylor would cost the Rox a compensatory draft pick, however, as would other big-hitting QO free agent outfielders like Nick Castellanos or Michael Conforto.  This could be a sacrifice Colorado is willing to make, figuring that the Story compensatory pick will make up for it, but it probably seems likelier that the Rockies will first look to non-QO outfielders like Avisail Garcia, Kyle Schwarber, or Mark Canha.

The list of targets obviously hinges on what exactly the Rockies are willing to spend, and of course, it also takes two to tango in free agent signings.  The names at the top of the outfield market have flexibility in choosing their next team, and unless Colorado strongly outbids the other suitors, would their top choice be a Rockies team that doesn’t seem like an obvious contender in 2022 (or even 2023)?  Also, the “Coors Field Effect” may turn off hitters as much as pitchers, given how much recent evidence exists that playing in Denver may mess up a hitter’s production from one ballpark to the next.

This same factor also influences the trade market.  As mentioned earlier, Bridich didn’t make many trades as Colorado’s general manager, but that could partially stem from the difficulty in properly evaluating players who spend half their time at Coors Field, especially if many of those same players then struggle on the road.  If the Rox acquired a new outfielder, for example, players like Tapia, Hilliard, or Garrett Hampson might become expendable trade chips.  But, for both Schmidt and rival GMs, how do you properly gauge the value of a player when their home ballpark may have such an outsized impact on their performance?

There’s no question that the Rockies face plenty of difficulties unique to their team alone, yet their situation hasn’t been helped by some self-inflicted wounds, such as the hard feelings that surrounded Nolan Arenado’s departure and how Story seemed openly displeased that he wasn’t moved at the trade deadline.  This offseason will be very instructive in illustrating Schmidt’s direction for the team and how it differs from the Bridich era, and in lieu of substantive changes, Rox fans may continue to be wary at the future outlook.

Injury/Health Notes: Britton, Oberg, Wieck

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Yankees GM Brian Cashman confirmed what most fans had already expected, telling reporters that “it’s probable you won’t see” Zack Britton in 2022 (link via Ken Davidoff of the New York Post). Cashman didn’t fully rule out the possibility that the lefty could return for a playoff push. The long-time Orioles closer and Yankees set-up man underwent reconstructive elbow surgery in September — something of a surprise at the time, as both club and player had only planned on a procedure to remove bone chips from his left elbow, but that procedure evidently revealed significant damage to Britton’s UCL.

The southpaw arrived in the Bronx from Baltimore in a July 2018 trade and had no problems shifting from closer to a set-up role, logging 25 innings of 2.88 ERA ball before posting a combined 1.90 ERA (and an elite 232 ERA+) across 80 1/3 innings between 2019 and ’20. His 2021 came off the rails, however, as his ERA ballooned to 5.89 behind a BB% spike to 17.1% (his career mark was 9.5% entering the season). Britton’s $14MM salary — which became guaranteed when the Yankees picked up his 2022 option in October 2020 — essentially becomes dead money. The news may mean a bigger role for 2021 deadline acquisition Joely Rodriguez, who re-signed with the Yankees for one-year, $2MM on Wednesday.

Some other notes on injury situations around the game:

  • Per The Athletic’s Nick Groke (Twitter link), righty Scott Oberg has undergone another procedure to further address issues arising from repeated blood clots in his arm. Though the righty reliever hasn’t seen a mound since 2019, Groke reports that the Colorado front office wants him in a Rockies uniform next year “even if he’s not able to pitch,” and Oberg has confirmed his desire to return. Oberg scouted and coached while on the IL in 2021, serving as something of a “bullpen Yoda,” per Groke. The Rockies may ask him to shift to that role more formally in 2022. Oberg has a solid 3.85 ERA (3.98 FIP) across 257 1/3 big-league innings spanning five seasons. The 31-year-old had planned to pitch in 2021 after undergoing thoracic surgery in September 2020 that doctors thought would keep the issue from recurring, but the issue returned following a March 2021 Spring Training appearance. As Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette explained last month, Oberg spent a night in the ICU earlier this year ahead of an emergency surgery after his hand went numb and trainers couldn’t find a pulse in his wrist. This more recent procedure was planned, Groke notes.
  • The Cubs announced to reporters that left-handed reliever Brad Wieck has been cleared for all baseball activities following a heart ablation procedure to address a irregular heartbeat — the second such procedure he’s undergone in two years (Twitter link via Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune). The importance of Wieck’s numbers pale in comparison to his health, of course, but he was a stellar bullpen option for the Cubs through early July, when he didn’t allow a single earned run while striking out 28 (albeit alongside 10 walks) in 17 innings. For his career, the 30-year-old Wieck has a 3.77 ERA and high-end 35.9 K% in 59 2/3 innings across parts of four seasons with the Cubs and Padres.
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