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Joe Musgrove

Padres Acquire Joe Musgrove In 3-Team Trade

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TODAY: The trade is official.  The Padres get Musgrove, the Mets get Lucchesi, and the Pirates receive the five prospects (Rodriguez, Head, Cruz, Fellows, and Bednar).

JANUARY 18, 5:47pm: This is a three-team trade, according to FanSided’s Robert Murray, who reports that the Mets will acquire Lucchesi. The Pirates will get catcher/outfielder Endy Rodriguez, per Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com.

5:40pm: Pittsburgh will get five players in return, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports. Head and lefty Omar Cruz are among those going to the Pirates, per Dennis Lin of The Athletic. Southpaw Joey Lucchesi is also part of the trade, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports, as are righties David Bednar and and Drake Fellows, Lin relays.

5:18pm: The Padres have agreed to acquire right-hander Joe Musgrove from the Pirates, Jeff Passan of ESPN tweets. The Pirates will receive “a large package of prospects,” potentially including outfielder Hudson Head, according to Passan.

This is the fourth significant trade for a starter in recent months for the Padres, who first acquired righty Mike Clevinger from Cleveland before last August’s deadline. Clevinger was quite effective for the Padres after the trade, but elbow issues limited him to one inning during the team’s NLDS loss to the division-rival Dodgers in October, and he won’t pitch at all in 2021 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in November.

After losing Clevinger for the upcoming season, the Padres swung trades with the Cubs for Yu Darvish, a National League Cy Young contender in 2020, as well as with the Rays for former AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell. They’ll presumably have Darvish, Snell, Musgrove, Dinelson Lamet (if he’s healthy after dealing with bicep troubles last year) and Chris Paddack in their season-opening rotation, though prospects MacKenzie Gore, Ryan Weathers and Adrian Morejon could be among younger Pads pushing for starts in 2021.

In Musgrove, San Diego is getting a California native who owns a 4.33 ERA in 496 2/3 innings between the Astros and Pirates, but he entered the offseason as one of the majors’ most intriguing trade chips after a career-best campaign. The 28-year-old threw 39 2/3 innings and recorded a 3.86 ERA/3.50 SIERA, all while registering a personal-high 14.4 percent swinging-strike rate and placing 10th in the majors in strikeout percentage (33.1 percent). That production would have made it more difficult for the low-payroll Pirates to extend Musgrove, who’s due $4.45MM in 2021 and has one more year of arbitration control left after that.

Lucchesi could have been part of the Padres’ rotation next season, but he’ll instead go to New York and compete for the No. 5 spot in its starting group. The Mets’ staff looked terrific before this deal with Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, Marcus Stroman and David Peterson comprising their top four, but Steven Matz had been the front-runner for the fifth position after a dismal 2020. He’ll now have to go against Lucchesi, who recorded ERAs in the 4.00s in 2018 and ’19 before tossing just 5 2/3 innings in the bigs last year. Lucchesi’s not eligible to become a free agent until after 2024.

With no chance to contend in the near future, it made sense for the Pirates to move on from Musgrove in favor of a package of younger players.  For Musgrove, they’re receiving at least four well-regarded prospects in Head, Cruz, Bednar and Rodriguez, whom MLB.com ranked among the top 20 farmhands in their teams’ farm systems.

Head (No. 7) went in the third round of the 2019 draft and then signed a record bonus for $3MM. The 19-year-old possesses an “extremely high” ceiling, according to MLB.com. Cruz (17) and Bednar (20) were also solid Padres prospects, with MLB.com calling Cruz a possible back-end starter and Bednar a hard thrower with promise. Fellows did not rank among the Padres’ top 30 prospects at MLB.com, and Baseball America wrote before the club drafted him that his 93 to 94 mph fastball is “often hittable because he struggles to hit his spots.” However, BA added that Fellows’ slider could at least help make him a legitimate major league reliever.

Rodriguez, 20, was the Mets’ 14th-ranked prospect at MLB.com before the trade. MLB.com writes that Rodriguez has “an advanced approach and natural bat-to-ball skills” that will be all the more valuable if he sticks at catcher, though a future in the outfield does seem like a possibility.

The main takeaway here is that the Padres remain serious about vying for a World Series – something they have never won – in the near future. Even if it doesn’t happen in the short term, though, the Padres appear to be set up to succeed for the long haul. Their MLB roster is one of the game’s best, and as BA notes on Twitter, the Padres still lead the league with seven top 100 prospects.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/15/21

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The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is today at 1pm ET. As of this morning, there were 125 arbitration-eligible players who’d yet to agree to terms on their contract for the upcoming 2021 season. Arbitration is muddier than ever before thanks to the shortened 2020 schedule, which most believe will lead to record number of arb hearings this winter. Be that as it may, it’s still reasonable to expect dozens of contractual agreements to filter in over the next couple of hours.

We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.

I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.

Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)

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Joe Musgrove Drawing Increased Trade Interest

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The Pirates traded Josh Bell to the Nationals last week, and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that Pittsburgh righty Joe Musgrove is drawing “keen” interest and could get a look from clubs that missed on Blake Snell (not that the two are comparable in terms of track record). Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette offers a similar sentiment, tweeting that multiple sources have told him they believe “Musgrove is next” for Pirates as they look to continue their rebuilding effort.

Musgrove, who turned 28 earlier this month, is among the most obvious trade candidates on the market. He could very well have been dealt this past summer had he not landed on the injured list with what proved to be a fairly minor triceps issue. Musgrove missed about three weeks with the injury and, upon returning, rattled off his best starts of the season.

The triceps issue and the shortened slate of games in 2020 combined to limit Musgrove to 39 2/3 innings. He was solid when on the mound, however, pitching to a 3.86 ERA and 3.42 ERA with a 33.1 percent strikeout rate that shattered his previous career-high (21.9 percent). Musgrove saved the best for last in 2020, closing out the year 13 shutout innings against the Cardinals and Indians. He yielded just six hits and two walks against 21 strikeouts in that time — the best two-game stretch of his career. Musgrove upped not only the usage of his slider and his curveball in 2020 but also his spin rate on both pitches, which may help to explain the uptick in missed bats.

Musgrove headlined the return in the trade that sent Gerrit Cole from Pittsburgh to Houston back in Jan. 2018, and just under three years later, he finds himself in a similar spot. While he obviously is not the same caliber of pitcher as Cole, Musgrove is a prime-aged starter with a quality track record who is under control for two more seasons at a highly reasonable rate. He’s owed a raise on last year’s $2.8MM salary, although the injury will suppress some of his earning power in arbitration, and is controllable through the 2022 season. An extension doesn’t seem likely to come from the Pirates, though an acquiring club could have interest in trying to keep him long term.

Musgrove was the No. 46 overall pick by the Blue Jays back in 2011 and was regarded as a Top 100 prospect prior to his Major League debut. He’s been a solid mid-rotation arm to this point in his career, though his overall 2020 results and his excellent finish might lead to some optimism that he still has another gear into which he can tap. Since being traded to Pittsburgh, Musgrove has given the Pirates 325 1/3 innings of 4.23 ERA/3.69 FIP ball, averaging 8.6. K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and 1.05 HR/9  to go along with a 45.9 percent ground-ball rate.

The Blue Jays are on the hunt for arms and nearly acquired Musgrove this past summer, so it stands to reason that they’d have interest again. Others known to be in the market for starting pitching include the Angels, Mets, Mariners, Twins, Red Sox and Giants. Given Musgrove’s affordable salary, he’d be a logical fit on any contender or hopeful contender looking to add to its rotation.

Pirates Joe Musgrove, Adam Frazier Mentioned Most Often In Trade Talks

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A report surfaced yesterday linking two of the Pirates’ most recognizable players to trade conversations with the New York Yankees as the potential partner. The Yankees and Pirates have discussed a swap that would send Josh Bell and Jameson Taillon to the Bronx, though there’s no indication the two sides are close on a deal.

The Pirates would be selling low on both players, with Taillon on his way back from Tommy John and Bell coming off a rough 2020. Given Pittsburgh’s overall lack of appealing trade assets – and the Pirates’ need to maximize said assets – it would be surprising to see the Pirates part with the pair for anything less than what would seem like an overpay, given the pair’s current circumstances.

There’s another duo of Pirates whose names have been bandied about the trade wire even more often, however. Joe Musgrove and Adam Frazier have been the most frequently mentioned names in trade conversations, according to MLB Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter).

Musgrove has arguably been the most consistent presence in the Buccos’ rotation since his arrival in the much-ballyhooed Gerrit Cole trade. A former first round draft choice of the Toronto Blue Jays, the former Astro has put up 3.6 bWAR in three seasons with the Pirates, pitching to a 4.23 ERA/3.69 FIP over 325 1/3 innings spanning 58 starts. Musgrove should make a very palatable salary in the range of $3.8MM his second time through arbitration, plus any acquiring team would get one final season of control beyond 2021.

Musgrove’s strikeout rate jumped to 12.48 K/9 over eight starts in 2020, well above his previous career-high of 8.30 K/9. His walk rate jumped with it, however, to a career-high 3.6 BB/9. His overall K/BB ratio of 3.44 K/BB actually tied with his rookie season for the lowest mark in his career. Still, there are some who see the 28-year-old as a potential breakout candidate, including Tim Williams of Pittsburgh Baseball.

Williams notes that Frazier profiles as a solid utility option for a contender. Frazier’s primary position is second base, but he’s appeared all over the outfield for the Pirates. Earlier in his career, he made fleeting appearances at shortstop and third base as well. Last season, he split his time between the keystone and left field.

Frazier – who turns 29 years old in four days – has never been accused of carrying a thunderous bat, but he’s been a largely-productive regular throughout his career, posting 2.4 bWAR per 650 plate appearances across five seasons. His .230/.297/.364 line was down across the board, though apologists could point to a strikeout rate of 15.2% that still saw him put the ball in play at a well-above-average rate, and a 7.4 BB% was well within his career norms. Looking a little deeper at Statcast measures like exit velocity and hard hit percentage, Frazier’s numbers dipped in 2020, but not so much to assume he couldn’t have rebounded over a full campaign.

Quick Hits: Sugano, Arihara, Padres, Varitek, Pirates

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Right-handers Tomoyuki Sugano and Kohei Arihara “are on the Padres’ radar,” The Athletic’s Dennis Lin writes (subscription required).  The two Nippon Professional Baseball veterans will both be available on the posting market, and represent intriguing alternatives to more established Major Leaguer hurlers in free agency.  As Lin notes, the Padres have worked to establish a scouting pipeline to the Asian leagues, with Pierce Johnson and Kazuhisa Makita representing San Diego’s most prominent NPB signings in recent years.

Sugano and Arihara are quite likely to each land multi-year deals but perhaps not overly long commitments, which could appeal to a Padres team Lin says is “mulling one-year deals as a way to reinforce a rotation.”  The Padres will be without Mike Clevinger in 2021 due to Tommy John surgery, leaving a vacancy in the starting mix.

Some more from around baseball…

  • Jason Varitek officially joined the Red Sox coaching staff earlier this month, working in the new position of game planning coordinator.  This is Varitek’s first assignment as a full-time MLB coach, and the longtime former catcher tells Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe that eventually managing a team is “the ultimate goal” down the road in his post-playing career.  Varitek has worked as a special assistant within the Boston front office since 2012, a post that has allowed him to dabble in several different organizational facets such as scouting, player development, and (most recently) working with Red Sox catchers throughout the 2020 season.  “There are no set parameters” to the game planning coordinator job, Varitek said: “I’ll work with the catchers and pitchers and be a liaison with the analytics people.  Whatever comes my way, I’ll help out.  It ends up being the same thing I have been doing, helping the players grow.”
  • The Pirates are known to be considering all options on the trade front this winter, though The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel (subscription required) doesn’t think Josh Bell or Gregory Polanco will be dealt since the Bucs would likely be selling low on either player.  “It’s more likely than not” that Joe Musgrove will be traded, though Biertempfel also thinks it’s possible Musgrove could be signed to a contract extension, with Pittsburgh either seeing him as a long-term piece or perhaps using the extension as a way of enhancing Musgrove’s trade value.

Trade Candidate: Joe Musgrove

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There are few players more likely to be traded this winter than Joe Musgrove. After putting up the league’s worst record, the Pirates are clearly not in position to immediately contend. That means GM Ben Cherington and the rest of the Pittsburgh front office are likely to be open to offers for most of their veteran players.

It’s not a good time for the Pirates to try to move most of those players, though. Gregory Polanco, Adam Frazier and Josh Bell all struggled to varying degrees in 2020. Trading any of that trio would be selling low; indeed, the Pirates are expected to first try to work out an extension with Bell this offseason. Unlike most of the Pittsburgh roster, Musgrove is coming off a strong season. He tossed 39.2 innings of 3.86 ERA/3.42 FIP ball. More impressively, Musgrove punched out 33.1% of opposing hitters, a stark improvement over his previous career marks.

Musgrove’s jump in strikeouts and whiffs might be a bit of small sample blip, especially since a brief IL stint for triceps inflammation limited him to eight starts, but he’d carved out a role as a solid mid-rotation starter over the prior couple seasons. Since joining the Pirates in advance of the 2018 season, Musgrove has thrown 325.1 innings with a 4.23 ERA and solid strikeout (22.8%) and walk (5.7%) rates. That level of production would appeal to a number of pitching-needy teams.

In an offseason when many teams are expected to cut payroll, Musgrove would also represent a more affordable addition than many of the options available in free agency. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects Musgrove to bring in an amount in the $3.2MM-$4.4MM range via arbitration. He’ll be eligible for arbitration once more next winter before reaching free agency in the 2022-23 offseason.

The Blue Jays and Pirates reportedly got close to a deal involving Musgrove during the season. It’s possible Toronto revisits those talks again, although they subsequently acquired Robbie Ray and Ross Stripling, both of whom remain in the fold. Virtually any team looking to contend in the short-term could try to strengthen their rotations by exploring a Musgrove deal. The A’s, Angels, Braves, Phillies and Yankees are among a host of teams who might fit the bill. There hasn’t been any movement on the Musgrove front to this point, but his name figures to be bandied about quite a bit in the coming months.

Pirates Designate Carson Fulmer For Assignment

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The Pirates announced that they have designated right-hander Carson Fulmer for assignment. The club also reinstated righty Joe Musgrove from the injured list, reinstated outfielder Bryan Reynolds from the paternity list and optioned infielder/outfielder Jose Osuna.

The Pirates are already the third team since July for Fulmer, who has gone from Chicago to Detroit to Pittsburgh in the past month-plus. Fulmer was once a highly regarded prospect, but it hasn’t translated to success in the majors for the 26-year-old, who owns a 6.57 ERA/6.33 FIP across 101 1/3 innings with the White Sox and Tigers. He hasn’t appeared in a big league game with the Pirates, who claimed him from the Tigers on Aug. 24, and could soon leave the organization. Fulmer’s out of options, though, so it’s possible no other team will take a chance on him.

Musgrove, out since Aug. 11 with right triceps inflammation, is scheduled to start for the Pirates against the Cubs on Wednesday. Musgrove started 2020 poorly before his IL placement (6.75 ERA/6.83 FIP in 14 2/3 innings), but he was a capable starter for the Pirates from 2018-19 and could boost his trade value heading into the offseason with a strong finish. Musgrove nearly went from Pittsburgh to Toronto before Monday’s trade deadline, but the two sides couldn’t come together on a deal.

Blue Jays, Pirates Came Close On Joe Musgrove Trade

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The Blue Jays and Pirates nearly completed a trade sending righty Joe Musgrove from Pittsburgh to Toronto prior to yesterday’s trade deadline, Robert Murray reports (via Twitter). That arrangement “fell apart at the eleventh hour,” however, and the Jays pivoted to acquire both Robbie Ray and Ross Stripling instead.

Musgrove, 27, was a Jays draft pick back in 2011 (No. 46 overall) and has settled in as a solid rotation piece in Pittsburgh after coming over from the Astros in the Gerrit Cole trade. From 2018-19, Musgrove tossed 285 2/3 innings of 4.28 ERA ball with more promising secondary marks: 3.72 FIP, 8.1 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 0.94 HR/9, 44.9 percent ground-ball rate. He was hit hard in three starts this season, however, and was placed on the injured list early in August. He’s said to be nearing a return but remained on the IL through the deadline, which undoubtedly complicated negotiations as the two sides tried to align on value. He’s controlled through the 2022 season, so he’d have been a relatively long-term play for a Jays club that is emerging from a rebuilding effort.

While it was a busy week for the Blue Jays, deadline season came and went without much activity from the last-place Pirates, due largely to injuries and underperformance up and down the roster. Also on the injured list for the Bucs was right-hander Keone Kela, who’d surely have been moved had he not recently sustained a forearm injury. Chris Archer, too, would’ve been a near-lock to be moved had he not undergone thoracic outlet surgery prior to the season.

Over on the active roster, more established players like Josh Bell, Adam Frazier and Gregory Polanco have played so poorly that the Bucs would’ve needed to sell low and likely accept middling returns. Forcing a move with a lackluster return wasn’t something GM Ben Cherington and his staff considered.

“We’d much rather hold than make trades that we’re not confident in that later come back and bite us,” Cherington tells Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Without getting into specifics, the GM acknowledged that he thought he was close to lining up on a couple deals that didn’t quite pan out in the end. Ultimately, the only player the Pirates traded was Jarrod Dyson, who went to the White Sox for $243K of international bonus pool space.

While it was a frustrating deadline for many Pirates fans, there’s still ample opportunity down the road for Cherington and his staff to reshape the club. Kela is a free agent at season’s end, and Archer’s $11MM club option seems likely to be bought out for $250K rather than exercised. Injuries torpedoed trade possibilities for that pair, but the Bucs control each of Musgrove, Bell, Frazier, Polanco, Trevor Williams, Chad Kuhl and Richard Rodriguez through at least the 2022 season. If the team does ultimately opt for a larger-scale tear down, be it this winter or next summer, they’ll still have more than one season of control over each player to market to other clubs.

As for the Jays, they didn’t get the two-plus years of Musgrove they apparently sought, but they did land two-plus years of Stripling. The 30-year-old has struggled through his past four appearances after an otherwise solid start to the year, but he has a strong track with the Dodgers, carrying a career 3.51 ERA and 3.60 FIP (387 innings) into the 2020 season. They also rolled the dice on another struggling but established NL West starter, Robbie Ray, adding him and Stripling to the already acquired Taijuan Walker — who was excellent in his Blue Jays debut over the weekend.

It’s arguable that Musgrove would’ve been a more impactful addition than Stripling and/or Ray, and it’s worth wondering whether they’d have acquired either player had the Musgrove swap come together. Regardless, the Jays are positioned quite well to return to the postseason for the first time since the 2016 season. At 18-15, they’re a game back of the second place Yankees and currently leading the Tigers by a game and a half for the No. 8 seed in the American League.

NL East Notes: Phillies, Robertson, Nationals, Braves, Musgrove

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David Robertson will not appear this season for the Philadelphia Phillies, per Jim Salisbury of NBCSPhilly (via Twitter). The reliever has been shut down from any throwing for the next six weeks. The 35-year-old reliever will now have contributed just seven appearances over the span of the two-year, $23MM deal he signed with the Phillies prior to 2019. Philadelphia has a $2MM buyout option for next season, which one has to think they’d execute after two lost seasons. Otherwise, they’ll be on the hook for $12MM in 2021. Instead, Robertson is likely headed back to the open market to look for a non-guaranteed deal. He could return to the Phillies on that type of deal as Brandon Morrow did after missing the entirety of his contract length due to injury with the Cubs, but it’s not clear now if the Phillies would even be interested in investing more time into Robertson. As we near the trade deadline, let’s check in on a couple of Philly rivals…

  • The Washington Nationals have stumbled through a rough first half to their title defense, but don’t expect the champs to sell, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Per Heyman, selling is “not in their DNA.” It certainly hasn’t been an option most seasons for the Nats, who haven’t had a losing season since 2011. In recent seasons, we’ve seen them hold onto Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon instead of moving them before free agency. They did move Daniel Murphy a couple seasons ago to the Cubs, but even then the Nats didn’t pull the trigger until just before the August deadline. Theoretically, the Nats could look to move veterans like Kurt Suzuki, Adam Eaton, Asdrubal Cabrera, or Eric Thames, but Heyman reports that GM Mike Rizzo is more likely to add than subtract.
  • The Braves have expressed an interest in Joe Musgrove of the Pirates, per Jason MAckey of PGSportsNow. This isn’t likely to turn your hat around as the Braves have expressed interest in a number of potential rotation targets. Musgrove is one of the more likely to move, though he’s just now returning from injury. The former Astro has been a viable rotation arm throughout his career, despite just 3 starts this season. In 2019, he toed the rubber 31 times for a 11-12 record and 4.44 ERA/3.82 FIP. Lance Lynn is probably the top rotation arm available, but Musgrove fits firmly into the next tier in terms of track record and consistency.

Latest On Keone Kela, Joe Musgrove

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Pirates righty Keone Kela exited last Friday’s relief outing due to forearm tightness, and the right-hander still hasn’t thrown since that departure, director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk tells reporters (Twitter links via MLB.com’s Adam Berry and The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel). As for righty Joe Musgrove, who is out with triceps inflammation, he’s set to pitch in a simulated game in the next couple of days.

The injury status of both righties is of particular note with the Aug. 31 trade deadline looming Monday. As a pending free agent on a last-place club, Kela in particular seems like a lock to be moved — if he’s healthy. At this point, it’s not at all clear that’s the case, and there’s minimal time for him to demonstrate his health for potential suitors.

The return for rental players is already expected to be diminished in 2020 given that the post-deadline portion of the schedule is now only four weeks, as opposed to two months in a conventional season. Questions about Kela’s health will only further drive down the price, but there’s little reason for the Pirates to hang onto him, given that he’s not a candidate to receive a qualifying offer this winter.

There’d be less urgency to move Musgrove, but had he been healthy, it’s easy to see him landing among the game’s more coveted arms. Teams are extra-motivated to acquire players controlled beyond the 2020 season, and Musgrove, who has cemented himself as a solid third or fourth starter, is controllable through 2022. The rebuilding Pirates aren’t going to be in position to contend by that time, so shopping Musgrove would make plenty of sense. Due to what is already more than a three-week IL stint, however, it seems likelier that he’ll be marketed in the offseason. A trade could technically come together if he returns by Aug. 31 or even if he’s still on the injured list, but as with Kela, health concerns could reduce what other teams are willing to offer.

Elsewhere on the roster, Tomczyk revealed that slugger Colin Moran is currently in concussion protocol after being involved in a collision at first base Monday. He’s out to a blistering start to the 2020 season and could’ve been viewed as a trade candidate himself, but he’ll likely need to be cleared and return to play if any team is to show interest. Moran is defensively limited, to say the least, but he’s hitting .259/.326/.531 (129 wRC+) and is controllable through the 2023 season.

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