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Josh Naylor

The Padres Have Yet To Resolve Their Outfield Crunch

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It’s been rumored for months that the Padres would eventually have to make some form of outfield move. The team has more outfield options than playing time available, and that’s only become truer as the season has worn on. Currently, the Padres are “discussing what it would look like” to keep rookie slugger Josh Naylor on the roster even after Franchy Cordero returns from the injured list, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union Tribune. Doing so could potentially mean optioning the struggling Manuel Margot to Triple-A El Paso, where he could receive everyday at-bats and work on his approach at the plate.

Long considered to be among the game’s top prospects, Margot is hitting just .241/.283/.321 on the season, although Naylor hasn’t demonstrated much in the way of on-base skills in his brief audition so far. The former first-round pick has two homers and two doubles in 37 plate appearances but has yet to draw a walk. He’s also punched out a dozen times (32.4 percent) en route to a .243/.243/.459 overall batting line.

Still, it seems the club is at least pondering whether an alignment consisting of Cordero, Naylor, Wil Myers, Franmil Reyes and Hunter Renfroe is worth trying out. Defensively, there’s no true center field option, but any of the bunch could reasonably be expected to be more productive at the plate than Margot. Selling low on Margot surely isn’t something they’d prefer to do, but if the club is comfortable with Cordero or Myers in center, at least on a short-term basis, perhaps they’d more seriously explore the possibility.

As The Athletic’s Dennis Lin recently suggested (subscription required), San Diego would also be wise to explore the market for Renfroe given that his skill set is somewhat similar to that of Reyes, but he’s four years older. Renfroe was a frequently mentioned trade candidate in the winter and is out to a .250/.304/.619 start with 18 homers in 191 plate appearances. Margot is controlled through 2022 — Renfroe through 2023. Neither seems like a viable centerpiece for a premium trade acquisition, but both would hold some appeal to teams in search of controllable outfield depth.

Lin suggests that the Padres will be active both in looking to add long-term pieces — perhaps by condensing some of that outfield surplus and the team’s considerable prospect capital — while also being open-minded to moving current contributors. General manager A.J. Preller acknowledged that with the draft now in the past, trade talk becomes “a lot of the conversation for us,” which is generally true throughout the league.

Beyond Renfroe and Margot, the Padres would surely be open to shedding some of Wil Myers’ remaining contract, but the enormous financial commitment to him makes any trade difficult to piece together. Myers’ six-year, $83MM contract is extremely backloaded, such that he’ll earn $20MM in each of the 2020-22 seasons (plus a $1MM buyout on a 2023 club option). He’s hitting .232/.330/.442 with 11 homers, seven doubles and seven stolen bases through 218 plate appearances, but he’s also striking out in a career-worst 36.2 percent of his trips to the plate. He’s a capable enough corner outfielder but is overmatched in center, and his strikeout trouble will always hinder his on-base skills. It’s tough to imagine a trade involving Myers without the Padres taking back a similarly onerous contract or eating a substantial portion of salary.

It’s possible, then, that if the Friars do make a move, they’ll be sending away someone with significant team control remaining. Beyond the aforementioned Margot and Renfroe, Cordero is controlled through 2023, Reyes through 2024 and Naylor through 2025. The Padres are known to be on the lookout for starting pitchers they can control beyond the 2019 season, and parting with a pre-arbitration outfielder who has upwards of a half-decade of club control remaining would help them in that regard.

If the Friars are to explore possible trades for names like Marcus Stroman, Trevor Bauer or Matthew Boyd (to name a few), including a controllable outfielder as a piece of the puzzle would allow them to free up immediate playing time while also addressing the pitching staff both now and in the future. It’s worth nothing that each of the Blue Jays, Indians and the Tigers in particular have faced questions about their outfield production this season. Elsewhere in the league, the Phillies lost Andrew McCutchen for the remainder of the season due to an ACL tear just days after Odubel Herrera’s future became cloudy, at best, due to assault allegations. There are ample trade opportunities to explore, and more figure to emerge as the deadline draws nearer, but Naylor’s arrival and Cordero’s looming return make San Diego’s outfield feel more crowded than ever.

Padres Promote Josh Naylor

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May 24: The Padres announced that Naylor’s contract has been selected from Triple-A El Paso. Outfielder Alex Dickerson has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a sprained right wrist, thus opening a 25-man roster spot, while lefty Aaron Loup’s transfer from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL opens a spot on the 40-man roster.

May 23: The Padres are planning to promote outfield prospect Josh Naylor, according to Dennis Lin of The Athletic (via Twitter). Corresponding roster moves aren’t yet known.

This decision adds to the interest in tomorrow’s matchup in Toronto, which will already feature just-promoted Blue Jays prospect Cavan Biggio. As Lin notes, Naylor is a Toronto-area native, hailing from neighboring Mississauga. Still another Ontarian, Cal Quantrill, will start Saturday’s game for the Friars.

Naylor was taken with the 12th overall pick of the 2015 draft by the Marlins. He ended up being shipped to San Diego in the partially undone 2016 trade — a transaction that came close on the heels of another swap in which the Friars picked the pocket of the Miami organization.

Primarily a first baseman to begin his professional career, Naylor has been shifted to a corner outfield role more recently in a bid to find a home for his bat. He’s still learning his way around the outfield grass, but has continued to ramp up his productivity at the plate while moving into the upper ranks of the Friars farm.

Naylor received at least one top-100 leaguewide prospect grade entering the present season, with Baseball America slotting him in at #99, and he has certainly boosted his stock since. So far this year, Naylor carries a .299/.378/.538 batting line through 209 plate appearances at Triple-A. He has swatted ten home runs and walked as many times as he has struck out (24 apiece), making for a nicely balanced offensive profile.

Bringing Naylor up is going to require both 40-man and active roster space. It’s fair to wonder whether the time is up for Alex Dickerson, who returned this year from a lengthy run of poor injury luck. He devastated Triple-A pitching but has managed just three singles while going down seven times on strikes in his 19 MLB plate appearances.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The Top Minor League Performers Of 2018

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Over at Roster Resource, I rank Minor Leaguers throughout the regular season using a formula that takes into account several statistics with age and level serving as important factors in how they are weighed. These are not prospect rankings!

This is how it works:

  • Hitters are mostly rated by total hits, outs, extra-base hits, walks, strikeouts and stolen bases.
  • Pitchers are mostly rated by strikeouts, walks, earned runs, home runs and hits allowed per inning.
  • A few counting stats are included (IP, plate appearances, runs, RBI) to ensure that the players atop the list played a majority of the season.
  • The younger the player and the higher the level, the more weight each category is given. Therefore, a 19-year-old with an identical stat line as a 25-year-old at the same level will be ranked much higher. If a 23-year-old in Triple-A puts up an identical stat line as a 23-year-old in High-A, the player in Triple-A would be ranked much higher.

A player’s potential does not factor in to where they are ranked. If you’re wondering why a certain prospect who is rated highly by experts isn’t on the list, it’s likely because they missed time due to injury (see Victor Robles or Nick Senzel), MLB promotion (Juan Soto) or just weren’t productive enough. While there are plenty of recognizable names throughout the MiLB Power Rankings Top 200 list, it’s also full of players who were relatively unknown prior to the season and have seen their stock rise significantly due to their performance. Here’s a closer look at the Top 20.

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, Toronto Blue Jays | Blue Jays Depth Chart

Guerrero probably deserved to start his MLB career sometime between the debuts of NL Rookie of the Year candidates Ronald Acuña Jr. (April 25th) and Juan Soto (May 20th). All things being equal, that would’ve been the case.

But his call-up was delayed, mostly because third baseman Josh Donaldson was healthy in May and designated hitter Kendrys Morales was being given every opportunity to break out of an early season slump. As Guerrero’s path to regular playing time was becoming clearer, he suffered a knee injury in early June that kept him out of action for a month. When he returned, the Jays’ playoff chances had dwindled. Instead of adding him to the 40-man roster and starting his service time clock, they chose to delay his MLB debut until 2019.

You can hate the rule, but I’m certain Jays fans would rather have Guerrero under team control in 2025 as opposed to having him on the team for a few meaningless months in 2018 and headed for free agency after the 2024 season. And maybe it’s just me, but I kind of enjoy seeing what kind of numbers a player can put up when he’s way too good for his competition. And all this 19-year-old kid did was slash .381/.437/.636 with 20 HR, 29 2B, 37 BB, 38 K in 408 plate appearances, mostly between Triple-A and Double-A (he had 14 PAs during a rehab stint in the low minors).  Thanks for providing us with that beautiful stat line, Vlad Jr.

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2. Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros | Astros Depth Chart

Despite a slow start—he had 21 hits in his first 83 Triple-A at-bats with one homer and 20 strikeouts— the 21-year-old Tucker showed why the World Champions were willing to give him a chance to take their starting left field job and run with it in July.

Tucker wasn’t quite ready for the Big Leagues—he was 8-for-52 in two separate MLB stints prior to a recent third call-up—but his stock hasn’t dropped one bit after slashing .332/.400/.590 with 24 homers, 27 doubles and 20 stolen bases over 465 plate appearances in his first season at the Triple-A level.

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3. Luis Rengifo, SS, Los Angeles Angels | Angels Depth Chart

A 21-year-old shortstop just finished a Minor League season with 50 extra-base hits (7 HR, 30 2B, 13 3B), 41 stolen bases, as many walks as strikeouts (75 of each) and a .299/.399/.452 slash line. If the name Luis Rengifo doesn’t ring a bell, you’re probably not alone. He kind of came out of nowhere.

The Mariners traded him to the Rays last August in a deal for Mike Marjama and Ryan Garton. Nine months later, the Rays shipped him to the Angels as the PTBNL in the deal for C.J. Cron. Based on those two trades, I can say without hesitation that the Mariners and Rays did not think Rengifo was this good. Not even close.

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4. Nathaniel Lowe, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays | Rays Depth Chart

Lowe’s breakout season mirrors Juan Soto’s in one way: They both posted an OPS above 1.000 at two different levels before a promotion to a third. Soto’s third stop was in Double-A, and it was a very short stint before heading to the Majors. After destroying High-A and Double-A pitching, Lowe’s final stop of 2018 was Triple-A, where he finally cooled off.

Still, the 23-year-old has put himself squarely on the Rays’ radar. After homering just 11 times in his first 757 plate appearances, all in the low minors, Lowe broke out with 27 homers and 32 doubles in 555 plate appearances in 2018. His overall .330/.416/.568 slash was exceptional.

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5. Alex Kirilloff, OF, Minnesota Twins | Twins Depth Chart

We’re four seasons into the Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano era—both debuted during the 2015 season—and we can’t say for certain whether either player will even be penciled into the regular lineup in 2019. They could be still turn out to be perennial All-Stars someday. But you can’t blame Twins fans if they temper their expectations for the next great hitting star to come up through their farm system. And yet, that might be difficult with Kirilloff, a first-round draft pick in ’16, and last year’s No. 1 overall pick, Royce Lewis, after the year each of them just had. Both are moving up the ladder quickly.

The 20-year-old Kirilloff, who missed all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery, was a hitting machine in his first full professional season. After slashing .333/.391/.607 with 13 homers in 65 games with Low-A Cedar Rapids, he hit .362 with seven homers and 24 doubles in 65 games with High-A Fort Myers. He also had 11 hits in the playoffs, including a 5-hit performance on September 5th.

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6. Bo Bichette, SS, Toronto Blue Jays | Blue Jays Depth Chart

All Bichette did during his age-20 season was hit 43 doubles and steal 32 bases while manning shortstop for the New Hampshire Fisher Cats, the 2018 Eastern League Champions. It’s unlikely that he’ll join Vlad Jr. in the Majors early next season, but he might not be too far behind.

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7. Peter Alonso, 1B, New York Mets | Mets Depth Chart

Alonso’s monster season (.975 OPS, 36 HR, 31 2B, 119 RBI between AAA/AA) ended in disappointment when he was passed over for a September promotion. As was the case with Vlad Jr., it didn’t make much sense to start his service time clock and fill a valuable 40-man spot during the offseason—neither Guerrero or Alonso have to be protected from the next Rule 5 draft—while the team is playing meaningless games. The 23-year-old Alonso did establish, however, that he is the Mets’ first baseman of the very near future, and they’ll plan accordingly during the upcoming offseason.

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8. Touki Toussaint, SP, Atlanta Braves | Braves Depth Chart

As tough as it will be to crack the Braves’ rotation in the coming years, the 22-year-old Toussaint has put himself in position to play a significant role in 2019 after posting a 2.38 ERA and 10.8 K/9 in 24 starts between Triple-A and Double-A. He’s also starting meaningful MLB games down the stretch as the Braves try to seal their first division title since 2013. After spending last October in the Arizona Fall League, where he followed up an underwhelming 2017 season by allowing 10 earned runs in 8 2/3 innings, he could find himself on the Braves’ playoff roster.

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9. Vidal Brujan, 2B, Tampa Bay Rays | Rays Depth Chart

The highest-ranked player to spend the entire season in Low-A, the 20-year-old Brujan slashed .320/.403/.459 while stealing 55 bases in his first crack at a full season league (27 games in High-A; 95 games in Low-A). He’ll still be overshadowed a bit in a deep Tampa Bay farm system that includes two of the best young prospects in the game, Wander Franco and Jesus Sanchez, but it’s hard to ignore such a rare combination of speed and on-base ability displayed by a switch-hitting middle infielder.

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10. Michael King, SP, New York Yankees | Yankees Depth Chart

The Yankees’ offseason trade that sent two MLB-ready players, Garrett Cooper and Caleb Smith, to the Marlins cleared a pair of 40-man roster spots prior to the Rule 5 draft and brought back $250K in international bonus pool money. They also received King, who—whether anyone expected it or not—was about to have a breakout season.

After posting a 3.14 ERA with a 6.4 K/9 over 149 innings in Low-A in his age-22 season, numbers that typically indicate “possible future back-of-the-rotation workhorse,”  he looks to be much more than that after his 2018 performance. In 161 1/3 innings across Triple-A, Double-A and High-A, King posted a 1.79 ERA, 0.911 WHIP and 8.5 K/9. He was at his best once he reached Triple-A, posting a 1.15 ERA with only 20 hits and six walks allowed over 39 innings.

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11. Taylor Widener, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks | Diamondbacks Depth Chart

Unlike the trade to acquire King, the Yankees appear to have gotten the short end of the stick in a three-team, seven-player offseason deal with Arizona and Tampa Bay. They traded away Nick Solak to the Rays and Widener to the Diamondbacks in exchange for Brandon Drury, who was supposed to fill a short-term need for infield depth.

While Drury was a bust in New York—he had nine hits in 51 at-bats before being traded to Toronto in a July deal for J.A. Happ—Solak, a second baseman/outfielder, put up terrific numbers in Double-A (.834 OPS, 19 HR, 21 SB) and Widener has emerged as one of the better pitching prospects in the game. The 23-year-old right-hander posted a 2.75 ERA, 2.8 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 over 137 1/6 innings with Double-A Jackson.

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12. Josh Naylor, 1B/OF, San Diego Padres | Padres Depth Chart

The offseason signing of first baseman Eric Hosmer certainly didn’t bode well for Naylor’s future with the Padres. Whether he had an MLB future at all, however, was already in question. First base prospects can’t just be good hitters. They need to mash, which is far from what Naylor did in 2017 (.761 OPS, 10 HR between Double-A and High-A). But a 20-year-old holding his own in Double-A is still interesting, nevertheless. So it was worth paying attention when he hit .379 with seven homers, five doubles, 13 walks and 12 strikeouts in April. He also spent most of his time in left field in 2018, adding a bit of versatility to his game.

Although April was his best month, by far, he still finished with an impressive .297/.383/.447 slash line. He’ll enter 2019 as a 21-year-old in Triple-A who has flashed some power (17 HR, 22 2B in 574 plate appearances) and above-average plate discipline (64 BB, 69 K).

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13. Eloy Jimenez, OF, Chicago White Sox | White Sox Depth Chart

Unlike the Jays and Mets, who had multiple reasons to keep Guerrero and Alonso in the Minors until 2019, the Sox’s decision to bypass Jimenez for a September call-up was more questionable.

Already on the 40-man roster and without much to prove after slashing .337/.384/.577 with 22 homers and 28 doubles between Triple-A and Double-A, Jimenez’s MLB debut appeared imminent as September approached. But White Sox general manager Rick Hahn, citing Jimenez’s need to improve his defense, confirmed in early September that he would not be called up. Of course, the 21-year-old probably would’ve benefited greatly from playing left field in the Majors for 20-25 games in September. And, of course, Hahn is just doing a good job of not saying the quiet part out loud: Eloy under team control through 2025 > Eloy under team control through 2024.

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14. Dean Kremer, SP, Baltimore Orioles | Orioles Depth Chart

After posting a 5.18 ERA in 2017, mostly as a relief pitcher in High-A, Kremer’s stock rose quickly with a full-time move to the starting rotation in 2018. In 16 starts for High-A Rancho Cucamonga, the 22-year-old right-hander posted a 3.30 ERA with a 13.0 K/9. After tossing seven shutout innings in his Double-A debut, the Dodgers included him as a key piece in the July trade for Manny Machado. Kremer continued to pitch well with Double-A Bowie (2.58 ERA, 45 1/3 IP, 38 H, 17 BB, 53 K) and now finds himself on track to help a rebuilding Orioles’ team in 2019.

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15. Nicky Lopez, SS, Kansas City Royals | Royals Depth Chart

Lopez started to turn some heads during last offseason’s Arizona Fall League, and it carried over into 2018 as he slashed .308/.382/.417 with nine homers, 15 stolen bases and more walks (60) than strikeouts (52) between Triple-A and Double-A.  It’s a sign that the 23-year-0ld’s bat is catching up with his stellar defense and that he’s closing in on the Majors, where he could team with Adalberto Mondesi to form one of the better young middle infield duos in the game.

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16. Royce Lewis, SS, Minnesota Twins | Twins Depth Chart

The No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 draft didn’t disappoint in his first full professional season, posting an .853 OPS, nine homers, 23 doubles and 22 stolen bases in 75 Low-A games before a 2nd half promotion to High-A Fort Myers. He didn’t fare quite as well (.726 OPS, 5 HR, 6 SB in 46 games), but he did hit three homers in the playoffs to help his team win the Florida State League championship. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the if he reached Double-A early next season as a 19-year-old with a jump to the Majors in 2020 not out of the question.

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17. Michael Kopech, SP, Chicago White Sox | White Sox Depth Chart

Throwing a 100 MPH fastball isn’t as rare as it used to be, but Kopech has reportedly touched 105 MPH, putting him in a class of his own. Unfortunately, the 22-year-old right-hander is expected to join a long list of pitchers who have had their careers interrupted by Tommy John surgery after he was recently diagnosed with a torn UCL.

The timing isn’t great, as Kopech had just arrived in the Majors in late August and would’ve likely been a leading candidate for AL Rookie of the Year in 2019. Still, he’ll only have to prove that he’s back to full health before he returns to the Majors—he should be ready to return early in the 2020 season— after making a strong impression in Triple-A with a 3.70 ERA and 12.1 K/9 in 24 starts.

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18. Kevin Smith, SS, Toronto Blue Jays | Blue Jays Depth Chart

Not only do Guerrero, Bichette and Cavan Biggio likely form the best trio of infield prospects in the game, two are sons of Hall of Famers—Vladimir Guerrero Sr. and Craig Biggio, and Bichette’s dad, Dante, was also pretty good. And yet, another Blue Jays infield prospect with a very ordinary name and without MLB lineage managed to stand out. The 22-year-old finished the season with 25 homers, 31 doubles, 29 stolen bases and a cumulative .302/.358/.528 batting line between High-A and Low-A.

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19. Gavin Lux, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers | Dodgers Depth Chart

The former first-round pick wasn’t overly impressive in his first full Minor League season in 2017, slashing .244/.331/.362 with seven homers and 27 stolen bases for Low-A Great Lakes. A move to the hitter-friendly California League in 2018, however, seemed sure to give his offensive numbers a boost. It did. Lux had a .916 OPS and 41 extra-base hits in 404 plate appearances, but he also didn’t slow down once he reached the upper minors late in the year.

In 28 regular season games with Double-A Tulsa, the 20-year-old Lux slashed .324/.408/.495 with four homers in 120 plate appearances. It didn’t end there. Over an eight-game playoff run, the left-handed batter went 14-for-33 with five multi-hit games.

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20. Patrick Sandoval, SP, Los Angeles Angels | Angels Depth Chart

Acquiring the 21-year-old Sandoval from the Astros for free agent-to-be catcher Martin Maldonado could turn out to be the steal of the trade deadline. While the lefty didn’t stand out in Houston’s deep farm system, he was having a strong season at the High-A and Low-A levels at the time of the trade (2.56 ERA and 9.9 K/9 in 88 innings). The change of scenery didn’t affect him one bit as he tossed 14 2/3 shutout innings in the California League before finishing the season with four impressive Double-A starts (19 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 27 K).

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Power Ranking Leaders By Level

Triple-A
Hitter: Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros
Starting Pitcher: Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox
Relief Pitcher: Ian Gibaut, Tampa Bay Rays

Double-A
Hitter: Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitcher: Taylor Widener, Arizona Diamondbacks
Relief Pitcher: Matt Pierpont, Colorado Rockies

High-A
Hitter: Colton Welker, Colorado Rockies
Pitcher: Emilio Vargas, Arizona Diamondbacks

Low-A
Hitter: Chavez Young, Toronto Blue Jays
Pitcher: Jhonathan Diaz, Boston Red Sox

Short-Season A
Hitter: Tyler Freeman, Cleveland Indians
Pitcher: Jaison Vilera, New York Mets

Rookie 
Hitter: Wander Franco, Tampa Bay Rays
Pitcher: Joey Cantillo, San Diego Padres

NL East Notes: Cashner Trade Fallout, Nats, Familia, d’Arnaud

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Last summer’s partially deconstructed swap between the Marlins and Padres had far-reaching implications, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes. After learning of issues with Colin Rea’s health and discovering that San Diego had failed to disclose certain medical information, Miami considered rescinding the entire deal — which the commissioner’s office offered to facilitate. But due to practical considerations and the apparent preferences of the league, the Fish instead worked out a deal to send Rea back to the Pads for prospect Luis Castillo, thus keeping Andrew Cashner in Miami and Josh Naylor (and others) in San Diego. That, in turn, prevented an alternative deal that would’ve sent Naylor to the Phillies for righty Jeremy Hellickson. There was fallout beyond that, as Rosenthal explains, including the fact that Hellickson ultimately received and accepted a qualifying offer from the Phils that he otherwise wouldn’t have been eligible for.

Here are some more NL East-focused notes:

  • As presently constructed, the Nationals have a strong core but questionable depth beyond it, Dave Cameron of Fangraphs argues. The problems are compounded by the health questions facing many of the Nats’ best players. Cameron suggests (as we’ve done here, as well) that Washington ought to have considered adding a quality, left-handed bat to share time with Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth. Though that could still come to pass, the most obvious options are now off the market. Meanwhile, the team still arguably ought to bolster its late-inning relief corps and rotation depth.
  • The league’s investigation into domestic violence allegations against Mets closer Jeurys Familia is moving slowly, per Bob Klapisch of NorthJersey.com. With the criminal case dropped — in large part, it seems, due to a decision by his wife not to testify — the commissioner’s office is struggling to obtain information. While that won’t necessarily prevent a suspension, it is creating delay. According to Klapisch, it’s likely that the final penalty won’t be known until late in Spring Training.
  • The Mets are hopeful that backstop Travis d’Arnaud can restore his career trajectory after a tough 2016 season, David Lennon of Newsday writes. He’s already working with catching instructor Glenn Sherlock to work out the defensive kinks, though d’Arnaud also needs to prove he can stay healthy and productive at the plate.

Marlins Acquire Andrew Cashner, Colin Rea In Seven-Player Deal

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2:19pm: The Padres will cover around $2.275MM of the $2.5MM remaining on Cashner’s contract this year, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets.

12:33pm: The deal is official, with both clubs announcing it. There’s money heading from San Diego to Miami in the swap, per the announcement, though details remain unreported.

9:58am: After more than a month of searching for a starting pitcher to fill out the back of their rotation, the Marlins have succeeded in landing a pair of starters, reportedly agreeing to a trade that will net them right-handed starters Andrew Cashner and Colin Rea as well as righty reliever Tayron Guerrero from the Padres. In exchange, Miami is sending right-hander Jarred Cosart, top first base prospect Josh Naylor, minor league righty Luis Castillo and injured reliever Carter Capps, who underwent Tommy John earlier this year, to San Diego.

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Miami has been said to be frantically searching for an upgrade to the back of its rotation, and Cashner will provide the steady innings they’ve been seeking — with the upside for more — so long as he stays healthy. That’s not a given for Cashner, it should be noted; he’s missed time in 2016 with a hamstring strain and a neck strain, and the 2014 season saw him endure separate stints on the disabled list for soreness in his right shoulder and inflammation in his right elbow.

Injuries have, to some extent, played a role in Cashner’s weaker-than-expected results across the past two seasons. After pitching to a 2.87 ERA in 289 1/3 innings from 2013-14, Cashner posted a 4.34 ERA in 184 2/3 innings last season and is at 4.76 in 79 1/3 innings in 2016. However, he’s pitched quite well over his past three outings and still comes with some degree of upside. He is, after all, less than two years removed from a season that saw him deliver a strong 2.55 ERA in 123 1/3 innings, and he still averages just under 94 mph on his heater to go along with an above-average ground-ball rate. That last point is key for a Marlins infield that has plus defenders in Martin Prado at third base, the recently reinstated Dee Gordon at second base and defensive wizard Adeiny Hechavarria at shortstop.

Rea, 26, is an entirely different type of asset for the Marlins. He’s in just his second season at the big league level and is controllable through the 2021 season, giving Miami a potential long-term piece in the rotation, though his early results have admittedly been mixed. The former 12th-round pick has a 4.81 ERA in 131 career innings at the Major League level, averaging 7.0 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 to go along with a 45.5 percent ground-ball rate. Rea, though, entered the 2015 season as the Padres’ No. 4 prospect at MLB.com and No. 7 prospect at Baseball America. Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com noted at the time that the new Padres regime considered Rea to be a pleasant surprise, as he’d added velocity to his fastball, more power to his curveball and also improved his command. The changes gave Rea the upside of settling in as a third or fourth starter in the Majors, per the report, and while Rea isn’t there just yet, there certainly seems to be some untapped potential with which VP of pitching development Jim Benedict (who came over from the Pirates this winter) can work.

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Cashner and Rea will slot into a Marlins rotation that is fronted by ace Jose Fernandez and impressive sophomore Adam Conley. Miami, however, just lost its top offseason signing, left-hander Wei-Yin Chen, to the disabled list with an elbow sprain, further magnifying an already pressing  need to add to the rotation. Right-hander Tom Koehler can provide a steady stream of mostly reliable innings at the back of the rotation, and Rea seems likely to step into the starting mix ahead of the inexperienced Jose Urena in the fifth spot.

Guerrero, meanwhile, gives Miami a buy-low arm on a pitcher that rated among San Diego’s top 30 prospects entering the season but has had a dreadful start to his 2016 campaign. Guerrero, 25, posted a very strong 3.05 ERA and punched out 61 hitters in 56 innings between Double-A and Triple-A last year, but control problems have always been an issue for him, and he’s become more hittable in 2016. This year, he’s sporting a 5.30 ERA in 35 2/3 innings between those same levels. While his strikeout and walk rates are similar to those of his 2015 campaign, he’s allowed considerably more hits and been more homer-prone this year. Guerrero offers a blistering fastball and the potential for an above-average slider but is something of a project for the Fish. He did make his big league debut earlier this year, though, and if Miami can get him back on track he could conceivably add a very live arm to their bullpen later this season.

The loss of both Cashner and Rea leaves the rebuilding Padres rather thin in the rotation, especially with Tyson Ross still on the DL due to his season-long shoulder woes, Robbie Erlin out for the year due to Tommy John surgery and Erik Johnson (who came over in the trade that removed James Shields from the San Diego rotation) also on the disabled list due to a right flexor sprain. Incredibly, the Padres have traded away nearly their entire Opening Day rotation, as Ross is the only remaining member (and likely only remains due to his injury status). The Friars, for now, are left with Edwin Jackson, Christian Friedrich and Rule 5 righty Luis Perdomo in their rotation, and they will presumably be joined by Cosart.

The 26-year-old Cosart, who had made just one start for the Marlins since returning from Triple-A, will go through yet another change of scenery in hopes of finally capitalizing on the potential that made him a consensus top 100 prospect from 2011-13. Originally drafted by the Phillies, he went to Houston in the original Hunter Pence trade and then to Miami alongside Enrique Hernandez in exchange for Jake Marisnick, Colin Moran and a competitive balance draft pick. Cosart has shown glimpses of his potential in the Majors and even posted a 3.69 ERA in 180 1/3 big league innings back in 2014, but he’s never been able to string much success together. He’ll bring plenty of grounders to the table (career 55.3 percent ground-ball rate), but he’s never missed many bats despite averaging 94 mph on his fastball (5.6 K/9) and hasn’t shown great control either (4.3 BB/9).

San Diego, though, will have some time to try to get Cosart on track. He entered the season with two years and 20 days of service time, and he’ll fall shy of the 152 days of big league service he’d have needed to reach three years of Major League service. As such, Cosart will be controlled through the 2020 season.

The addition of Capps to the deal is a high-upside wild card for the Padres. Capps broke out as one of baseball’s most dominant relievers last season, posting a 1.16 ERA with a 58-to-7 K/BB ratio and a 40.8 percent ground-ball rate in 31 innings of work. With a fastball that averaged 98.1 mph and appeared even faster due to delivery that was as controversial as it was unorthodox — the legality of Capps’ delivery came into question on multiple occasions in 2015 — Capps had all of the makings of an elite bullpen arm before his UCL gave out in Spring Training. If he rehabs and comes back looking anything like the 2015 version of himself, the Friars will be a legitimate relief ace on their hands.

The top-ranked prospect in this deal is Naylor — the No. 12 overall pick in the 2015 draft and the No. 100 prospect in Major League Baseball according to Baseball America’s midseason Top 100 list. MLB.com rated Naylor second among Marlins farmhands on its midseason update to Miami’s prospect rankings, placing him only behind 2016 first-rounder Braxton Garrett. The 19-year-old Naylor has held his own despite being well below the average age of competitors in the Class-A South Atlantic League this season, batting .269/.317/.430 with nine homers, 24 doubles, two triples and 10 stolen bases. His 5.9 percent walk rate isn’t wowing anyone just yet, but he’s shown a knack for making contact, striking out at a respectable 16.7 percent clip against older competition. The 10 steals are somewhat of a surprise for a 6’0″, 225-pounder that is said to lack speed, though he could see that stolen base total come down as he continues to progress throughout the minors (especially considering he’s still just 19 and could add further weight/size). Based on his bat alone, Naylor would probably be a more highly regarded prospect; MLB.com’s report on him states that his bat could be “special,” praising his plus-plus raw power and strong contact skills. However, Naylor is seen as a first baseman only, and a below-average one at that, with very little speed, meaning that scouts feel he’ll be a bat-first type of player that needs to hit to provide everyday value.

Castillo was sixth among Marlins farmhands on Baseball America’s midseason update of their top prospects and eighth on MLB.com’s midseason Marlins rankings. The 23-year-old moved from the bullpen to the rotation for the first time last season at Class-A and has pitched very well in Class-A Advanced, working to a 2.25 ERA with 7.6 K/9, 1.4 BB/9 and a 51.9 percent ground-ball rate this season. BA notes that Castillo’s fastball has touched 101 mph and sits in the 96-97 mph range, adding that he shows feel for a changeup and a slider with some depth. MLB.com suggests that he’s no sure thing to stick in a rotation but adds that he has the stuff to be a power arm near the back of a bullpen if a move back to relief work ultimately proves necessary.

ESPN’s Buster Olney first reported that the Marlins had a deal to acquire Cashner (via Twitter). Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported that Rea was going to the Marlins as well (also via Twitter) . FOX’s Ken Rosenthal tweeted that Naylor was part of the return. Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald tweeted that a member of the big league roster was headed to San Diego prior to reports of Cosart’s inclusion. Yahoo’s Jeff Passan reported Castillo’s inclusion (Twitter link), and ESPN’s Jayson Stark reported that Cosart was in the deal as well (on Twitter). The inclusion of Capps and Guerrero were the final pieces of the puzzle, both reported by Rosenthal (Twitter link).

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Pitching Rumors: Marlins, Tigers, Nats, Giants, Walker, Gomez

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ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark examines the seeming dearth of available starters on this year’s market, with several unnamed executives telling him it seems to be harder than at any point in recent memory to pry arms loose. He goes through several possible reasons for that — including, most interestingly, the fact that the infusion of money into baseball has reduced the financial pressure on smaller-market teams to sell off assets at the deadline. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports also tackles the subject, suggesting that the standoff between buyers and sellers could topple over on deadline day — possibly resulting in a wild finish.

While we wait for the tension to break, here’s the latest on a market that is proving difficult to project:

  • Even as the Marlins reportedly make their pitch for Andrew Cashner, the team is continuing to look far and wide for their rotation needs, per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. He adds three more names that the club has asked about: Edinson Volquez of the Royals, Matt Shoemaker of the Angels, and Julio Teheran of the division-rival Braves. Nothing in the Miami system is off limits, per the report, including first baseman Josh Naylor and righty Luis Castillo — each of whom have been asked about quite frequently by other clubs, per Jackson. Rival clubs get the sense that the Marlins are “desperate” to bolster their rotation, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick tweets, but it’s still not entirely clear how the team will make that happen given its thin farm. Of course, as the examples of Naylor and Castillo show, the system isn’t devoid of talent, but it would certainly sting to part with the organization’s best pieces, and it’s not at all clear that those players would be enough to score a quality, controllable arm.
  • Another team that hopes to add arms but has limitations in doing so is the Tigers, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter). Detroit is said not to have much payroll flexibility, and is also generally regarded as having a weaker farm system. At the same time, it’s probably wise not to count out the Mike Illitch-owned Tigers, who have made many bold strikes in the past and sit in reasonable striking distance of both the AL Central and the Wild Card at six games over .500.
  • After missing on Aroldis Chapman, the Nationals should only step up their efforts to upgrade, Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post opines. While GM Mike Rizzo has undeniably been a shrewd dealmaker, he and the organization have largely resisted major in-season additions, and Kilgore says that this is not the year to be stingy with prospects. Washington has been tied mostly to relief targets, and finding a big-time late-inning arm surely remains a priority. That said, things still seem rather wide open for the Nats, who aren’t overrun with needs but seem interested in a big addition. After all, the club even reportedly asked the Blue Jays whether star outfielder Jose Bautista might be available, per Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post (Twitter link).
  • Despite moving to add infielder Eduardo Nunez tonight, the Giants are still focused on pitching, GM Bobby Evans tells reporters including Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area (via Twitter). It’s hard to draw a bead on the Giants’ favored targets, as ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick says they’re “blanketing” the market for starters and relievers (Twitter links). But the team is among may that have reached out to the Royals, so you can at least add some hypothetical new names to the long list of possibilities for San Francisco.
  • Meanwhile, southpaw Josh Osich wasn’t terribly pleased that he was placed on the DL with a seemingly minor forearm issue, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. He was replaced with fellow lefty Matt Reynolds, leading the Chronicle’s Henry Schulman to suggest on Twitter that the organization hopes to get a look at the 31-year-old before the deadline. Reynolds has appeared in five major league seasons and had some success at times. And it’s hard to ignore his current Triple-A line: over 32 1/3 innings, he owns a 1.11 ERA with 12.8 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 while allowing only 16 hits.
  • Mariners righty Taijuan Walker is drawing “strong interest” around the game, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). It’s still somewhat difficult to imagine the organization parting with the talented hurler at this particular point in time, not least of which because he’s currently on the DL with a foot injury. Plus, GM Jerry Dipoto strongly suggested just recently that a sell-off shouldn’t be expected. But Nightengale says that Walker is scheduled for a bullpen on Friday at Wrigley Field that is expected to be watched by opposing teams’ scouts.
  • The Phillies “don’t seem motivated” to trade reliever Jeanmar Gomez, Jayson Stark of ESPN.com tweets. On the one hand, that’s a bit surprising given that the emergent righty has worked to a strong 2.83 ERA in 47 2/3 innings while largely thriving in the closer’s role. On the other, Philadelphia has no real reason to part with its final year of control if it can’t draw an interesting return, as Gomez will likely provides some affordable (albeit increasingly expensive) stability next year.

Latest On Melvin Upton, Andrew Cashner

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SUNDAY: The list of teams interested in Cashner is close to 10, writes Heyman. That includes the previously reported Marlins, who have discussed many of their top prospects – including first baseman Josh Naylor – with the Padres, Heyman hears. The surging Astros are also in the Cashner sweepstakes.

SATURDAY, 11:51am: The Marlins are also still discussing Cashner with the Padres, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports tweets.

10:17am: The Giants have also checked in on Cashner, according to FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman (Twitter link), though San Francisco is more focused on adding bullpen help before the deadline.  The Dodgers don’t appear to be in the mix for Cashner as they “seem to be aiming even higher” for a rotation upgrade, which Heyman speculates could be Chris Sale or one of the Rays’ starting pitchers.  In another Heyman tweet, he writes that the Orioles and Blue Jays are thought to be the leaders for Upton, though the two clubs are also exploring bigger deals that could involve Upton and other Padres changing teams.

8:48am: The Orioles are chasing two high-profile names from the Padres, as they are looking at Melvin Upton and Andrew Cashner in separate trade talks, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter link).  Reports surfaced yesterday that the O’s and Padres were discussing a swap that would’ve sent Ubaldo Jimenez and a prospect to San Diego for Upton.  That deal would be something of a fit of large contracts, whereas for Cashner, Rosenthal notes that San Diego is asking for two prospects.

Interestingly, Baltimore isn’t the only AL East team linked to these two Padres stars, as the Blue Jays have also discussed Upton and Cashner with San Diego, Rosenthal reports (Twitter links).  The Padres are trying to get the division rivals into a bidding war over Upton, though it isn’t certain if Toronto would have interest in the outfielder if Cashner wasn’t part of the deal.  Even the Cashner talks with Toronto may not have much momentum, as Rosenthal notes that the Jays and Padres have differing opinions on Cashner’s value.

As of yesterday, the Padres were telling other teams that they were close to finalizing an Upton trade, which at the time was perceived as a possible negotiating tactic on the Friars’ part.  A rival official for a team not interested in Upton observed to Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune that the Padres were “trying to get someone else to bite before they are forced to send him to the one club ready to move on him.”

Given Rosenthal’s subsequent tweets, it would seem that Toronto could be the “someone else” in that description while the O’s could be the more eager suitor for Upton’s services.  Then again, Upton makes sense as an outfield upgrade on a few different contenders.  For instance, ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that the Indians have also talked to the Padres about Upton over the last few weeks, though nothing is close on that front.

Of the three teams mentioned, the Orioles would seem to have the clearest need for Upton given their left field void (as both Joey Rickard and Hyun Soo Kim are on the DL), plus Upton could also provide cover in center behind Adam Jones.  Jimenez’s contract also helps offset the large amount of money still owed on Upton’s contract, as the outfielder is set to earn $16.45MM in 2017 and roughly $5.31MM remaining this season; Cleveland and Toronto don’t have any Jimenez-esque large salaries that could be dealt to create payroll space.

The uncertainty surrounding Michael Brantley’s status could certainly put Cleveland in the market for outfield help, though the Tribe have been getting some very solid contributions from their current outfield mix of Tyler Naquin, Jose Ramirez, Rajai Davis and Lonnie Chisenhall.  The Blue Jays are pretty set in the outfield with Michael Saunders, Kevin Pillar and Jose Bautista (who could return from the DL as early as Monday), so Upton doesn’t really have a regular spot.  Toronto could use Edwin Encarnacion more regularly at first to get Upton into left field and Saunders at DH, depending on matchups.

Cashner, meanwhile, has been linked to several teams in need of rotation help.  The O’s don’t have a terribly deep minor league system, and while Cashner wouldn’t necessarily command top-tier prospects in return, it’s still possible Baltimore could be outbid by another suitor (such as the Rangers) who simply have more quality minor leaguers to offer.  Cashner fits as a big upgrade for the Orioles’ struggling pitching staff, and he also fits in Toronto given that Aaron Sanchez may yet be moved to the bullpen to control his innings.

Marlins Nearing Deal With First-Rounder Josh Naylor

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3:34pm: Naylor has agreed to a $2.25MM bonus, Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun reports on Twitter.

8:43am: The Marlins are close to signing first-round pick Josh Naylor, reports MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. The left-handed-hitting first baseman out of Ontario graduated from high school yesterday, meaning that he’s now officially able to sign a contract with Miami. While the slot value for Naylor’s No. 12 overall selection is $3,051,800, Frisaro hears that Naylor will sign for a bonus between $2MM and $2.5MM.

Naylor’s selection was the first big surprise of the 2015 draft. While some had expected the powerful teenager to go perhaps in the late first round, Miami’s selection of him was unexpected at the time. Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel rated Naylor as the 28th prospect in this year’s class, and he was more optimistic than many other rankings. Naylor placed 49th on Keith Law’s Top 100 at ESPN, 59th on the Top 200 of Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com, and 61st on Baseball America’s Top 500.

Listed at 6’1″ and 225 pounds, Naylor’s calling card is his raw power, which receives grades of 65 on the 20-80 scouting scale from ESPN, MLB.com and Fangraphs in the linked reports, with BA labeling it plus-plus (70). ESPN feels that Naylor has a plus-plus arm that scouts would love to use in right field, but he lacks the foot speed to adequately cover the outfield. Naylor’s speed grades range from 20 to 35, which is enough for him to be labeled a first-base-only prospect. As such, he’ll likely have to tap into that huge raw power in order for him to become a regular player for the Marlins down the line.

According to Frisaro, Naylor will begin his pro career with the Marlins Gulf Coast League affiliate. An official announcement of the signing from the Marlins could come as soon as today, he adds.

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