NL East Notes: Alcantara, Yankees, Anthopoulos, Ozuna, Winker, Kranick
The Marlins were looking to land George Lombard Jr. or Spencer Jones from the Yankees in a Sandy Alcantara trade, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Yankees naturally balked at moving either of their top prospects, and this gives the kind of idea of the big-ticket return Miami was trying to land for either Alcantara or Edward Cabrera. “No one came especially close” to prying Alcantara away from the Fish, which reflects both the big asking price and the inconsistent numbers the righty has posted (6.36 ERA over 109 innings) in his first season back after rehab from Tommy John surgery.
Other than trading Jesus Sanchez to the Astros and moving depth catcher Nick Fortes to the Rays, it was a quieter deadline than expected from the Marlins, who looked like clear-cut sellers a couple of months ago. However, the team’s plans may have been changed by an unexpected development — winning. A three-game sweep of the Yankees in Miami this weekend brought the Marlins’ record back to 55-55, as the Fish have won 25 of their last 35 games. It is a great sign of progress for the team’s rebuild at the very least, and even a longshot wild card race can’t be ruled out given how well the Marlins have been playing.
Some more from the last few days of NL East news…
- Rafael Montero was the only veteran Atlanta moved at the deadline, as if anything, the Braves focused a lot of attention on adding short-term pitching help to its injury-riddled staff. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos told reporters (including the Athletic’s David O’Brien) on Thursday that since his team plans to contend again in 2026, the Braves put a high ask on any player that was controlled beyond the 2025 season. As for impending free agents like Raisel Iglesias and Marcell Ozuna, Anthopoulos said “we weren’t just going to give players away, move guys just to move them or just to dump salary….If we were going to move any player, we were going to have to get something back that we liked.” The executive added that the team didn’t approach Ozuna for his approval about any potential trades, as Ozuna has veto rights as a 10-and-5 player.
- The Mets freed up some 40-man roster space for their deadline additions on Thursday by moving Jesse Winker to the 60-day injured list, which ensures that Winker will be now be out of action until at least September 9. There is concern that Winker’s entire season could be in jeopardy, as president of baseball ops David Stearns told MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo and other reporters that Winker’s back is “frankly not [recovering] at the pace that I think he or we were hoping.” Winker rejoined the Mets on a one-year, $7.5MM free agent deal last winter but he has been limited to 26 games due to an oblique strain and now this back problem, as both injuries landed the veteran on the 60-day IL.
- Sticking with the Mets, the Athletic’s Will Sammon reports that Max Kranick underwent a flexor tendon repair surgery last month, not a Tommy John surgery as was the initial expectation. A TJ procedure would’ve very likely cost Kranick the entire 2026 season, but there is now some improved chance the right-hander might be back on a big league mound before Opening Day 2027. Kranick already underwent a Tommy John surgery in June 2022 that cost him the entire 2023 campaign, and his 2024 work was limited to 70 2/3 innings in the Mets’ farm system. Returning to the bigs this season, Kranick had a 3.65 ERA over 37 innings with New York before arm problems have again put his career on hold.
Red Sox Notes: Ryan, Alcantara, Prospects, Mayer, Slaten
It was a relatively quiet trade deadline for the Red Sox, as Dustin May and Steven Matz were the only additions brought onto the roster for the pennant race. However, the Sox had their eyes on plenty of bigger targets, including the team’s previously-reported pushes for the Twins’ Joe Ryan and the Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara. WEEI’s Rob Bradford provides some details on those pursuits, saying that the Red Sox were willing to dig deep into the prospect depth to try and secure a deal.
“Anybody and everybody from the Sox’s minor league system” was available to some extent, Bradford writes. Boston offered multiple packages that included two of Jhostynxon Garcia, Payton Tolle, and Franklin Arias as the headliners, with other names also involved from the top ten names on the club’s prospect rankings. Since the Marlins and Twins didn’t seem to be prioritizing the addition of big league players, Red Sox officials saw Alcantara and Ryan as particularly good fits since Boston didn’t want to trade from its Major League roster.
A match didn’t happen, of course, and Bradford characterizes the talks with the Twins as somewhat one-sided on Boston’s part. “Ultimately, Minnesota never acted, not informing the Red Sox chief decision-makers what level of offer would be needed to pull off….a move for a controllable ace starting pitcher,” Bradford writes. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported that the Twins actually did want some MLB-level talent, as Minnesota wanted either Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu in a Ryan trade package.
As much as the Twins’ deadline fire sale was about shedding payroll, Duran or Abreu are arbitration-controlled through the 2028 season. Obtaining a controllable starting outfielder would’ve been a sign that the Twins still want to return to competitive baseball as soon as 2026, and Thursday’s stunning set of moves wasn’t the first step of a rebuild process. The club’s other deadline moves saw multiple players with MLB experience obtained, including such names as Taj Bradley, Mick Abel, and James Outman.
Turning to the injury front, Nightengale writes that Marcelo Mayer could be facing a season-ending wrist surgery, as the rookie infielder’s “sprained wrist is more serious than the Red Sox initially envisioned.” Mayer was placed on the 10-day IL a little over a week ago and he recently received an injection in his wrist to help with the healing process.
Speaking with MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam and other reporters, Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow didn’t rule out the possibility of surgery. For now, the hope is that the injection “gives him the best chance to be back on the field this season. It’s a credit to him to try to do anything he can to get back.”
Mayer has hit .228/.272/.402 over his first 136 plate appearances in the Show. While not a standout performance, it isn’t unexpected for a player to need time to adjust to the majors, plus it helps that a healthy Mayer would be a luxury at this point for a crowded Red Sox infield. Now that Alex Bregman is back from the IL and Ceddanne Rafaela has moved into regular second-base duty, the team’s everyday lineup is pretty set, so Mayer might only be in line for a bench role if he is able to get back to action.
One player whose return seems a little more likely is Justin Slaten, though Breslow warned that “it’s hard to put a timetable on it given the topsy-turvy nature of the recovery to date.” Slaten hasn’t pitched since May 28 due to right shoulder inflammation, though as the reliever told Bradford and company, he was also dealing with a nerve issue related to his transverse bone.
That problem has now been corrected, and Slaten’s restarted throwing progression hit another checkpoint with a bullpen session on Saturday. The Sox will continue with a more gradual build-up and a minor league rehab assignment will surely be necessary given how much time Slaten has missed. If all goes well, Slaten feels he’ll be back by September, and ready to continue building on what is becoming an impressive resume. Slaten has a 3.09 ERA over 78 2/3 relief innings since making his MLB debut last season.
Astros Acquire John Rooney From Marlins
The Astros have acquired left-hander John Rooney in a trade with the Marlins, as relayed by Chandler Rome of The Athletic. The Marlins are receiving cash considerations in return. Rome adds that Rooney will join the team today, and that right-hander Luis Contreras was optioned to Triple-A in order to make room for Rooney on the active roster. Houston has a 40-man roster vacancy, so no further corresponding transactions will be necessary.
Rooney, 28, was eligible to be traded even after the deadline on July 31 passed because he has spent the entire year in the minor leagues without being selected to the 40-man roster. MLBTR’s Steve Adams offered a comprehensive look at how clubs can make external additions over the season’s final two months yesterday morning. A third-round pick by the Dodgers back in 2018 who has yet to make his MLB debut, Rooney is a veteran of seven minor league seasons who will now get the opportunity to break into the majors for the first time in his career.
Prior to this season, Rooney had spent his entire career in the Dodgers organization. He reached Triple-A in the latter half of the 2023 season but struggled with the club’s Oklahoma City affiliate in his first full season at the level in 2024 despite some early success there the year prior. Rooney went on to elect minor league free agency and latched on with the Marlins, for whom he’s done quite well at Triple-A Jacksonville this season. In 38 appearances, Rooney has posted a 2.45 ERA while striking out 32.4% of his opponents. Those impressive strikeout numbers are held back by a massive 16.5% walk rate, however, and Rooney’s command will surely need to improve if he hopes to be more than a depth option at the big league level.
Despite that lackluster control, the Astros are clearly enticed by Rooney’s big strikeout numbers if they offered him a spot on their 40-man roster and a shot in the majors. The competition among left-handed relief arms in the Houston bullpen is extremely stiff, however. Closer Josh Hader and second-year setup man Bryan King are both locked into high leverage spots, while Bennett Sousa and Steven Okert are both having excellent seasons in their own right. All four of those southpaws figure to land well ahead of Rooney on the organizational depth chart, but additional relief depth with options remaining is always a worthwhile addition for a contender to consider.
For now, Rooney will take the spot of Contreras on the active roster. Contreras is in his second year in the majors with the Astros, but he’s done little to impress so far with a 7.50 career ERA. With that being said, those poor results have come in just 18 innings of work total, and his 4.12 FIP suggests that there are better days to come. Contreras will head to Triple-A Sugar Land, where he has a 3.34 ERA in 30 appearances this year, and wait for his next opportunity in the majors.
Marlins Designate Anthony Veneziano For Assignment
The Marlins have designated left-hander Anthony Veneziano for assignment, per a team announcement. His spot on the 40-man roster goes to outfield prospect Jakob Marsee, whose previously reported promotion to the majors has now been officially announced. Miami also optioned righty Ryan Gusto, acquired from the Astros in yesterday’s Jesus Sanchez trade, to Triple-A Jacksonville.
The 27-year-old Veneziano was a waiver claim out of the Royals system last year. He’s pitched a combined 36 2/3 major league innings between those two clubs and logged a solid 3.93 ERA. Veneziano has struck out 20.6% of his major league opponents and yielded a roughly average 8.8% walk rate. He’s also kept the ball on the ground at a respectable 41.4% clip and averaged 94.4 mph on his four-seamer (albeit just 94.1 mph this year, compared to 94.8 mph in 2024).
It’s a decent track record for the former 10th-rounder, although Veneziano has had a much rougher go in Triple-A Jacksonville this season. While he’s only tossed 12 1/3 innings there, he’s been tagged for eight runs (5.84 ERA) on 12 hits and an unsightly nine walks in that time.
Veneziano is in the second of three minor league option years and has had some success at the big league level. Given the limited means of adding depth following the trade deadline, he could latch on with another club via waivers. Miami will place him on waivers within the next five days, and those waivers will take an additional 48 hours whenever the Fish choose to begin the process.
Marlins To Select Jakob Marsee
The Marlins are selecting the contract of outfielder Jakob Marsee, according to a report from Robert Murray of FanSided. A corresponding 40-man roster move will be necessary in order to make room for Marsee.
Marsee, 24, was a sixth-round pick by the Padres in the 2022 draft. He was part of the trade package GM AJ Preller shipped to the Marlins last May to acquire Luis Arraez, and he had a down year at the Double-A level between the Padres and Marlins organizations. His new club still promoted him to Triple-A for a taste of the highest level of the minors late last year, however, and that decision paid off when he turned in a fairly respectable .275/.370/.363 slash line across 22 games and 93 plate appearances at the level.
This year, Marsee has returned to Triple-A and excelled. In 98 games for the Marlins’ Jacksonville affiliate, he’s slashed a sensational .246/.379/.438 with a wRC+ of 125. He’s clubbed 14 home runs, swiped a phenomenal 47 bases, and walked at a 15.9% clip. High walk rates have always been a part of Marsee’s game, and he’s never walked less than 15.3% of the time in any MiLB season. After striking out 22.4% of the time last year en route to below average results at the plate, however, Marsee has cut down on the whiffs and struck out just 18.9% of the time.
Now the outfielder will get a chance to prove himself in the majors. Marsee has experience at all three outfield spots, but the overwhelming majority of that playing time has come in center field. That may be where he plays in the majors given that most scouts view him as at least average at the position, though the Marlins’ outfield mix is in flux after yesterday’s trade of longtime outfield stalwart Jesus Sanchez to the Astros. Kyle Stowers appears to be locked in as the club’s everyday left fielder amid a brilliant season. Dane Myers is currently getting the majority of the reps in center field, with Heriberto Hernandez and Javier Sanoja also getting outfield time. Sanchez played regularly in right field, so Marsee may be asked to simply slide into that position despite having only an average arm.
Wherever Marsee ultimately plays, he figures to get an opportunity to prove himself in the majors over the season’s final two months. The 52-55 Marlins are clear longshots for the postseason even after keeping both Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera in the fold yesterday, and the focus remains squarely on developing young players for the future. Figuring out what role Marsee will play in that future is likely to be a priority for manager Clayton McCullough and president of baseball operations Peter Bendix over the season’s final 55 games, and the youngster proving that he can be a capable regular in the outfield would go a long way to creating optimism about the team’s ability to compete in the near-term. If he can prove himself, Marsee would join a growing nucleus of young talent that includes Stowers, Cabrera, Eury Perez, Agustin Ramirez and Ronny Henriquez, among others.
In the meantime, Marsee figures to make his big league debut against the Yankees in Miami later today. The game is scheduled for 7:10pm local time, the Marlins will need to create space for Marsee on the 40-man roster even though there’s an active roster vacancy due to the Jesus Sanchez trade. That’s because the return for Sanchez, right-hander Ryan Gusto, was already on the Astros’ 40-man roster before he was acquired by the Fish.
Astros Acquire Jesús Sánchez
The Astros have acquired left-handed hitting outfielder Jesús Sánchez from the Marlins. In exchange, Miami has received right-hander Ryan Gusto, infield prospect Chase Jaworsky, and outfield prospect Esmil Valencia. Both teams have announced the trade.
Houston was known to be seeking a left-handed bat ahead of the deadline, to help balance out a lineup that is sorely missing star slugger Yordan Alvarez. Sánchez is no Alvarez, but he has provided the Marlins with above-average power throughout his career, particularly against right-handed pitching. He has hit double-digit home runs in each of the past five seasons, while his career .184 isolated power (ISO) is about 15% better than league average. Mediocre on-base skills and a typically high strikeout rate mean his overall numbers are closer to average (career 100 wRC+), but he has been consistently productive with the platoon advantage. Sánchez has hit 60 of his 69 home runs against right-handers, with a .203 ISO and a 115 wRC+. He has been particularly effective against righties this year, with a career-best 125 wRC+ and a 19.4% strikeout rate. While his 27.6% strikeout rate against southpaws is still quite high, his overall 20.8% strikeout rate is easily the lowest of his career; this is the first year he has ever had a strikeout rate better than the league average.
Sánchez is strictly a platoon bat, with a .178/.226/.284 career slash line against lefties, but that shouldn’t be a problem for the Astros, who rank second in MLB in OPS and wRC+ against left-handed pitching and have enough right-handed hitters that they shouldn’t have any trouble shielding Sánchez from southpaws. However, the only lefties on their active roster right now are Taylor Trammell and Jacob Melton, as well as the switch-hitting Victor Caratini and Cooper Hummel, and they rank among the bottom half of teams in OPS and wRC+ against right-handers. So, it’s not hard to see how Sánchez slots in and improves the lineup. He can take outfield playing time that’s been going to Hummel, Melton, and Trammell, and/or DH reps that have been going to Caratini against right-handed pitching.
In exchange for Sánchez, who is making $4.5MM this year and remains under team control through arbitration through 2027, the Marlins receive a rookie hurler and two position player prospects. According to MLB Pipeline, Jaworsky, 21, is the headliner; they have him ranked as Houston’s no. 13 prospect, while Valencia is no longer on the organizational top 30. Similarly, Baseball America put Jaworsky at no. 22 and did not rank Valencia in their latest update. Most sources agree that Jaworsky projects as a utility infielder with good speed, but a lack of power means he’ll need to improve his plate discipline in order to get enough out of his hit tool. FanGraphs, interestingly, is higher on Valencia (Astros no. 20) than Jaworsky (no. 26). The 19-year-old outfielder seems to have a higher offensive ceiling but carries more risk, in large part due to poor swing decisions. Ultimately, both players project as role players; that’s not too surprising considering Sánchez himself isn’t an everyday player.
As for Gusto, he wasn’t a name that many had an eye on entering the season, but the 26-year-old has been surprisingly effective in his first big league campaign. Through 24 games (14 starts), he has a 4.92 ERA and a much more impressive 3.92 SIERA over 86 innings pitched. He helped the Astros survive a great number of pitching injuries over the first four months of the season, but with Houston looking to add pitching today and hoping to reinstate some arms from the IL soon, Gusto was expendable. He will now be able to help the Marlins fill innings over the remainder of the season, and they’ll have him under team control (with three option years remaining) for another five seasons.
Sánchez heading to the Marlins was first reported by Michael Schwab. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand added that the Marlins would receive Gusto in the deal. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported the Marlins would also get back two prospects in exchange for Sánchez. Isaac Azout of Fish on First identified one of the prospects as Jaworsky, while Craig Mish of Sportsgrid identified the other as Valencia.
Marlins Won’t Trade Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera
4:59pm: The Marlins also don’t plan to trade Edward Cabrera today, per Alden Gonzalez of ESPN.
4:49pm: The Marlins aren’t trading right-hander Sandy Alcantara today, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald. He’ll stay put in Miami’s rotation down the stretch. An offseason trade or a deal next summer remains a possibility, of course. Alcantara is being paid $17MM this year and next, and he has a $21MM club option for the 2027 season.
Alcantara and Cabrera were two of the more notable arms on the market this summer. Alcantara, in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, hasn’t posted anywhere close to his typically excellent results. He was sharp in each of his two outings prior to the deadline, but the right-hander’s 6.36 ERA in 109 frames and struggles throughout most of the season prevented the Fish from receiving what they deem commensurate value for a former Cy Young winner who has two years of control left on what would be well below-market rates if he were back to form. They’ll hope to get him right down the stretch.
Cabrera, 27, is a former top prospect in the midst of a breakout season. He’s tossed 94 innings of 3.35 ERA ball, fanning 24.3% of opponents against an 8.4% walk rate while sitting close to 97 mph with his heater. He dealt with a minor elbow scare earlier this month but avoided a trip to the injured list. Whether that gave interested teams any trepidation remains unclear.
Miami understandably had a high asking price on both pitchers. Cabrera is making just $1.95MM this year and is controllable via arbitration for another three years. The Marlins will head into the offseason with both righties penciled into their 2026 rotation, though their future with the organization hinges on when president of baseball operations Peter Bendix and owner Bruce Sherman feel a return to contention in the NL East is viable. If next year is going to be a transition year or a continuation of the franchise’s rebuilding efforts, they could end up on the block again in the offseason. At the very least, other clubs figure to try to pry both pitchers away.
Latest On Marlins Pitchers, Outfielders
2:38pm: MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch reports that the Yankees have pitched the Marlins on a potential package deal involving Alcantara and Bender.
10:25am: All eyes are on Sandy Alcantara today, with less than seven hours to go until the MLB trade deadline. The former Cy Young winner sports an ugly post-Tommy John 6.36 ERA in 21 starts, but he has totaled 12 scoreless innings in his last two starts against the Padres and Cardinals.
Alcantara is controlled through 2027 by virtue of the contract extension he signed over three years ago. The Astros and Red Sox were linked to him yesterday, while the Mets, Padres, and Cubs are among those previously connected. This morning, Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds another potential suitor: the Yankees.
The Yankees have Luis Gil set to make his season debut Sunday against the Marlins following his spring lat strain, which may send Cam Schlittler back to Triple-A (if the latter isn’t included in a trade today). Gil will join veterans Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, and Marcus Stroman, as well as Will Warren. As Greg Joyce of the New York Post wrote yesterday, a rotation acquisition by the Yankees would force a choice between Warren and Stroman.
With a competitive balance tax payroll around $314MM after additions of Ryan McMahon, Amed Rosario, and Austin Slater, the Yankees face a 110% tax on every dollar they add this summer. Alcantara is earning $17MM this year and next, with a club option for 2027. Acquiring Alcantara would mean adding more than $6MM to the Yankees’ CBT ledger for this year, plus a tax of around $6.7MM.
Teams seeking starting pitching are also intrigued by hard-throwing Marlins righty Edward Cabrera. Cabrera, 27, is having a better season than Alcantara and is under team control through 2028 at much lower (expected) salaries than Alcantara. As such, it makes sense that the Yankees are interested in Cabrera, as Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports today with five hours left until the deadline. The Marlins are eyeing powerful Yankees outfield prospect Spencer Jones, notes Morosi. According to Will Sammon of The Athletic, “interest in both Alcantara and Cabrera is very high.”
Sammon also notes that a pair of Marlins righty relievers are drawing interest in Ronny Henriquez and Calvin Faucher. Henriquez’s 32.4 K% ranks 20th among relievers this year, and he’s been mentioned as an under-the-radar trade candidate by MLBTR several times this month. Given that Henriquez was a February waiver claim who had limited MLB experience with the Twins, he’s under team control through 2030.
As you might expect, Sammon reports that Faucher is more likely to be traded today. Faucher, 30 in September, has a 3.73 ERA, 23.2 K%, and 10.7 BB% this year with a 44.2% groundball rate. He’s less intriguing than Henriquez, but is under control through 2029. Righty Anthony Bender has also been in rumors this month.
Finally, Sammon points out that Marlins outfielders Jesus Sanchez and Dane Myers are also drawing interest. Sanchez, 28 in October, is under team control through 2027. He’s a left-handed hitter who has a slightly above average 104 wRC+ since 2023, though against righties he’s at 119 during that time. Myers, a December 2022 waiver claim from the Tigers, is under team control through ’29. He’s a righty hitter who can serve as a lefty masher, given his 141 wRC+ against southpaws in 172 plate appearances dating back to 2023.
Sanchez has been playing right field for the Marlins, often sitting against lefties. Myers has been taking most starts in center, occasionally sharing with Javier Sanoja.
Astros Interested In Sandy Alcantara
The Astros and Marlins are discussing a trade that would send Sandy Alcantara to Houston, according to reporter Michael Schwab. “Both sides are serious and interested,” as per Schwab, but there isn’t any indication that a deal is close to happening. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale regards Houston’s interest in Alcantara as a bit of a pivot, as talks with the Padres about Dylan Cease “have cooled.”
Alcantara missed the 2024 season due to Tommy John surgery, and his return to action this year has been mixed at best. The right-hander has a 6.36 ERA over 109 innings, with lot of hard contact allowed and a 16.8% strikeout rate that would represent a career low. There have been a few flashes of vintage Alcantara, and his last two starts have seen the former NL Cy Young Award winner toss 12 innings with only a single unearned run allowed. Alcantara’s fastball is still averaging 97.5mph, which is down from the 98mph he averaged during the 2021-23 seasons, yet that isn’t an egregious drop considering the righty’s long layoff.
As perhaps the top premium trade chip the Marlins have left after their latest fire sale, Alcantara’s shaky performance represents a challenge for the front office. The Fish could simply wait until the offseason to try and re-visit trade talks, perhaps after Alcantara has posted better numbers in the final two months to boost his value. Or, the Marlins could trade Alcantara before tomorrow’s deadline if a rival team comes close to matching (or even matches) what was surely a high initial asking price for the hurler’s services.
Despite Alcantara’s struggles, the Mets, Cubs, Red Sox, and Padres remained linked to his trade market. San Diego’s interest is related to the Cease talks, as the speculation has been that the Padres could both deal Cease (an impending free agent) to address multiple roster needs, while then adding another starting pitcher either as part of the return for Cease for in another deal altogether.
Cease was reportedly the Astros’ top deadline target, so this turn towards Alcantara could represent a number of things. It could be simply due diligence on Houston’s part, or a sign that the talks with San Diego are going nowhere because the Padres wish to retain Cease, or perhaps a sign that the Padres are more motivated to send Cease elsewhere.
Whereas Cease is a rental, Alcantara is controlled through the 2027 season. He is owed the remainder of his $17MM salary for 2025, $17MM more in 2026, and Miami has a $21MM club option for 2027 that contains a $2MM buyout. Adding Alcantara over Cease would be a whole new financial ballgame for the Astros, who made an effort to stay under the luxury tax threshold this past winter.
With the Mariners and Rangers charging hard in the AL West race, Astros owner Jim Crane may be willing to pay into the tax again in order to give his team some much-needed reinforcements. If the pre-TJ version of Alcantara emerges, his salary suddenly looks like a relative bargain for a frontline pitcher. Framber Valdez is also a free agent after the season, so the Astros could view Alcantara as a longer-term replacement if Valdez walks.
Astros Interested In Dylan Cease
TODAY: Cease is the Astros’ “main target,” a source tells MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand.
JULY 29: The Astros have Padres right-hander Dylan Cease atop their deadline wish list, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal and Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Houston is also known to be looking for a bat and the report lists Willi Castro of the Twins, Jesús Sánchez of the Marlins and Jake McCarthy of the Diamondbacks as names the Astros are considering. MLBTR covered Houston’s interested in Castro earlier this week.
The Houston rotation has had a rough go in terms of health this year. They started the season with Luis Garcia, J.P. France and Cristian Javier on the injured list due to surgeries in previous years. They’re all still on the shelf. Since the start of the season, Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski have required Tommy John surgery, putting them out for the rest of the year. Spencer Arrighetti suffered a fractured thumb in a freak accident, getting hit during batting practice, and has been out for almost three months now. In the past two weeks, Lance McCullers Jr. hit the IL with a blister and Brandon Walter was sidelined by elbow inflammation.
They still have a strong one-two punch atop the rotation with Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown but things get dicey after that. Currently, Colton Gordon, Ryan Gusto and Jason Alexander are filling in. The Astros will naturally want to add some arms and push those guys down the depth chart. It’s possible they could get some guys off the IL in the coming months, but it’s understandable that they don’t want to rely on that.
Cease has been one of the most reliable pitchers in the game. Since getting promoted in 2019, he hasn’t gone on the injured list, apart from a two-day stint on the COVID list in 2021. He made 12 starts in the shortened 2020 season. He has made at least 32 starts in each full season since. He’s already up to 22 this year.
That reliability would certainly be attractive to the Astros amid all the injuries, though the quality has often been quite strong as well, as Cease has regularly struck out roughly 30% of batters faced. His earned run average has oscillated over the years thanks to some wobbles in his batting average on balls in play, strand rate and home run rate. His advanced metrics have held more steady. For his career, he has a 3.69 FIP and 3.82. In a full season, he’s never had a SIERA higher than 4.10 or a FIP higher than 3.72.
This year’s 4.79 ERA in on the high side, though at least part of that seems to be beyond Cease’s control. His .323 BABIP, 68.5% strand rate and 13.3% homer to fly ball rate are all to the unfortunate side. His 3.64 FIP and 3.37 SIERA suggest he’s largely been the same guy as in previous seasons. His ERA is also inflated a bit by a nine-run shellacking in his third start of the year.
Though Cease makes plenty of sense for the Astros on the field, there are other matters to consider. He is making $13.75MM this year, which leaves about $4.5MM left to be paid out. The Astros have clearly tried to avoid the competitive balance tax this year, dumping money in the offseason by trading Kyle Tucker and Ryan Pressly. RosterResource currently pegs the club’s CBT number at $236MM, just $5MM from the base threshold of the tax. That’s just an estimate and it might be off by a few million in either direction.
Perhaps the Astros can add Cease and stay under the line but they also want to add a bat, which could make it tricky. On the other hand, the report from The Athletic suggests that owner Jim Crane likes star players and might be willing to cross the line in order to get someone like Cease. He was reportedly willing to cross the line in the offseason in order to re-sign Alex Bregman, though Bregman ultimately landed with the Red Sox.
The Astros will also have to offer the Padres something they would like. The Friars aren’t selling in the commonly understood sense. Their plan with dealing Cease is to perhaps save some money, add a left fielder or a catcher, or prospects, or some combination of those goals. They could then use either the prospects or the saved money to acquire another starting pitching to replace Cease.
Houston doesn’t have a strong farm system, so perhaps the prospect part will be hard for them to pull off, though they could help out in some of the other areas. Catcher Victor Caratini is having a good year, though Yainer Diaz is struggling, so perhaps the Astros wouldn’t want to part with Caratini. Though if they did, Caratini is making $6MM this year, so flipping him would give the Astros some extra CBT space.
In the outfield, the Astros are currently without Jake Meyers and Yordan Alvarez. Their current mix includes Cam Smith, Taylor Trammell, Jose Altuve, Jacob Melton, Cooper Hummel and Chas McCormick. Houston’s not giving a ton of playing time to McCormick, who has some decent seasons on his track record. However, he hasn’t been good for a couple of years now, so the Padres probably don’t have too much interest. Trammell has been hitting well lately but while striking out in more than 30% of his plate appearances. Hummel has been DFA fodder all year. Altuve and Smith aren’t going anywhere. Melton might be hard to pry loose because he hits left-handed, something the Astros lack, and is covering center field with Meyers out.
The report from The Athletic points out that the Astros traded three notable prospects to get a rental pitcher at last year’s deadline, flipping Jake Bloss, Joey Loperfido and Will Wagner to the Jays for Yusei Kikuchi. Perhaps they could do so again, though it’s unclear if they have the farm system to do it.
If they have some guys the Padres like, it’s theoretically possible that the Friars could then use those guys to upgrade elsewhere. A sequence of events like this helped them land Cease in the first place. They traded Juan Soto to the Yankees for a bunch of pitchers, including Michael King and Drew Thorpe. They then quickly put Thorpe in a package to send to the White Sox to get Cease. Perhaps the Astros can make it work but they will have competition. Cease has also been connected to the Mets, Cubs, Blue Jays, Rays, Red Sox and Yankees.
As for the hitters, the Astros have also suffered a number of injuries to the lineup. As mentioned, Alvarez and Meyers are on the shelf, as well as shortstop Jeremy Peña, third baseman Isaac Paredes and others. Astros general manager Dana Brown has said the club would love to get a lefty bat, ideally one who could play the infield and/or left field. Players like Altuve, Mauricio Dubón and Zack Short have some defensive versatility, giving the Astros a bit of flexibility in what kind of bat they add.
Sánchez has been a roughly league average bat in his time with the Marlins. He has a .243/.310/.425 career batting line and a wRC+ of exactly 100. He is making $4.5MM this year, which leaves about $1.5MM left to be paid out. He can be controlled via arbitration for another two seasons. He’s been far better against righties in his career, which could appeal to Houston. He has a .179/.228/.287 slash against southpaws but a .258/.330/.459 line otherwise. The rebuilding Marlins likely aren’t clinging too tightly to him.
McCarthy has been good in the past but not this year. He slashed .285/.349/.400 for a 110 wRC+ in 2024, also adding 25 steals and quality defense. This year, he has a brutal .158/.232/.277 line and was sent to the minors for a few months. He did hit well in Triple-A, slashing .314/.401/.440, so perhaps the Astros see a path to getting him back on track. He still hasn’t qualified for arbitration and is being paid around the league minimum, which would be attractive for the Astros.
Photo courtesy of Sam Navarro, Imagn Images