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Offseason In Review: New York Yankees

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It was a relatively quiet offseason by Yankees standards….apart from arguably the winter’s biggest trade.

Major League Signings

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

After very little activity in the pre-lockout period, the Yankees burst into action a few days after the transactions freeze was lifted, swinging a big five-player blockbuster with the Twins that checked a number of items off New York’s winter to-do list.

Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton almost single-handedly carried a surprisingly lackluster Yankees lineup in 2021, so the club decided to add some more pop at third base by bringing in former AL MVP Josh Donaldson.  Gio Urshela had enjoyed some good success at the plate during his time in the Bronx, but since he was one of the several Yankee hitters coming off a down year, Donaldson provides a big upgrade on paper.

Donaldson isn’t without risk, especially given how New York has more than a few right-handed hitting veterans who also have checkered injury histories.  But, the Yankees felt Donaldson was worth it, considering that the third baseman hasn’t shown much sign of slowing down even into his age-36 season.  To underline their belief in Donaldson, the Yankees agreed to cover all of the $50MM owed to him through the 2023 season.

This expenditure was likely made possible because New York reset its luxury tax status in 2021, keeping payroll under the old $210MM threshold.  As a result, the Yankees regained “first-timer” penalty status for any overage in 2022, and indeed the Bombers are already set to blow past the new thresholds.  With the new collective bargaining agreement bringing changes to the Competitive Balance Tax structure, it seems as though New York’s lack of moves pre-lockout was borne of a desire to wait and see exactly what the new CBT rules would entail, before making any big financial commitments.

Some money also went back Minnesota’s way in the form of the 2022 contracts for Urshela and Gary Sanchez, who were both arbitration-eligible.  Sanchez is in his final year of arb control, and after another subpar season for the catcher, the Yankees decided to drastically overhaul their personnel behind the plate.

Between incumbent Kyle Higashioka, former Twin Ben Rortvedt, and another trade pickup in former Ranger Jose Trevino, this sharp move toward a defense-first catching corps turns the page after years of criticism directed towards Sanchez’s glovework.  These shortcomings behind the plate were usually secondary to the big numbers Sanchez posted with his bat, but as his hitting also declined over the last two years, he found himself on the bench during key late-season games.

There is some hope that the 24-year-old Rortvedt can still reach another level as a hitter, though he has yet to make his debut in the pinstripes after suffering an oblique strain in Spring Training.  Rortvedt’s absence likely led to Trevino’s acquisition, and Trevino might be the odd man out once Rortvedt is healthy.

Defense was also the key part of the Yankees’ acquisition of Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who was targeted by the New York front office for much of the winter.  It seemed as though the chase was over once the Twins landed IKF from the Rangers, except Kiner-Falefa was then flipped to the Yankees only hours after landing in Minnesota.

With Gleyber Torres moved over to second base near the end of last season, it left a big vacancy at the shortstop position.  Yankees GM Brian Cashman summed up the situation in October, stating bluntly that “shortstop is an area of need. We have to address it.”  It seemingly set the stage for a vintage Yankees splurge, and with so many superstar shortstops available in free agency, it seemed as though it was only a question of which of those big names would eventually land in the Bronx.

And indeed, the Yankees made a choice about their shortstop of the future — Anthony Volpe, or maybe Oswald Peraza.  Since Peraza is slated to make his big league debut sometime this season and Volpe likely in 2023, New York ultimately opted to see what they have in the two highly-regarded prospects rather than sign a proven veteran to a pricey multi-year contract.  This isn’t to say that the Yankees didn’t pay some attention to the shortstop market, but more in a cursory manner, in case a shorter-term possibility materialized.

As a result, it was Kiner-Falefa who stepped into the shortstop vacancy, not any of the All-Star names on the open market.  (Ironically, the Yankees agreeing to cover Donaldson’s salary allowed the Twins to free up enough payroll to make a big shortstop add themselves, signing Carlos Correa.)  While it has been only a month into the season and there will still be plenty of pressure on Volpe and Peraza considering who the Yankees passed up in their favor, it looks like Cashman may have made a canny decision.  Kiner-Falefa has thus far performed exactly as expected in solidifying the defense at the shortstop position, and as an added bonus, his bat has also been solid.

Since the Yankees expected the rest of the lineup to generally be better in 2022, “solid” is more than fine for a defense-first player, since glovework was a bigger problem than hitting last season.  The Yankees ranked 29th in Defensive Runs Saved (-41) and 25th in Outs Above Average (-23) in 2021, leaving plenty of room for improvement on the run-prevention front.

With the Mets spending tons of money and grabbing the headlines in the Big Apple, the Yankees’ more modest offseason took some criticism for being too conservative, especially considering all of the club’s weaknesses in 2021.  However, Cashman may have taken the glass half-full approach — if fans and media were concerned about the flaws on a 92-win team, Cashman seems to have focused on a core talented enough to win 92 games despite those flaws.

This isn’t to say that some other splashy moves weren’t considered, as the Yankees made a contract offer to Justin Verlander, though only for one year.  The Bombers were also linked to two of the biggest available first basemen, trade candidate Matt Olson and free agent Freddie Freeman.

In regards to first base, the Yankees again eschewed the big prospect cost of an Olson or the big financial cost of a Freeman signing, and instead brought back a familiar face.  Anthony Rizzo was good but unspectacular after being acquired from the Cubs at the trade deadline, but New York liked the veteran’s contributions enough to bring him back on a two-year, $32MM deal.  Technically, the contract may end up being only a one-year pact, as Rizzo can opt out after the season.

Rizzo was nothing less than one of baseball’s best hitters in April, providing an early answer to any critics still grumbling over missing out on Freeman or Olson.  Some regression is probably inevitable since the 32-year-old is hitting at a career-best level, but Rizzo has shown he has plenty left in the tank after his Chicago tenure ended with a pair of only decent seasons.

Luke Voit was dealt to the Padres the day after Rizzo re-signed, as Voit was suddenly an expendable piece at first base.  The trade wasn’t exactly a salary dump, as Voit’s $5.45MM salary for 2022 wasn’t exactly prohibitive, and pitching prospect Justin Lange has a live arm (if some notable control problems).  Still, since Voit got off to a cold start with the Padres and is currently on the injured list with a biceps tendon injury, it looks like the Yankees made the right call in moving on.

The Bombers’ trade of Joely Rodriguez to the Mets for Miguel Castro is also looking like an early win for the Yankees, as Castro has pitched well while Rodriguez has struggled.  The Castro swap may have been the Yankees’ most notable pitching move of the winter, as the club let Corey Kluber and Andrew Heaney walk in free agency but didn’t really do anything to replace them.

The Verlander pursuit indicates that the Yankees were open to upgrading the rotation, though only on their terms.  Largely standing pat doesn’t seem to have much hampered the team, as the starting pitching and bullpen have both been very strong over the season’s first month.  Circling back to the defensive improvements, tighter fielding has certainly helped the Yankees’ fleet of arms, but the club has gotten good results from just about every pitcher on the staff.

In fairness, it is very easy to examine New York’s offseason through rose-colored glasses, given how well the team has played to date.  It’s safe to say the Yankees won’t keep up a .700 winning percentage for the entire year, but there is already plenty of indication that this team can contend for a World Series.

And, more moves are probably in store for the trade deadline.  Cashman was aggressive in landing Rizzo and Joey Gallo last summer even when the club seemed more like fringe contenders, and when the Yankees were trying to stay under the CBT limit.  Now, the Bombers are projected for a payroll north of $262MM, putting over the second tier of tax penalties but still under the third tier of $270MM.  Cashman has shown that he can find success with either headline-grabbing moves or more modest acquisitions, so anything could be on the table for more transactions throughout the year.

Could that something even be an extension with Judge?  The two sides didn’t reach agreement on a new deal prior to Opening Day, which was Judge’s preferred deadline for finalizing talks (like most players, Judge didn’t want negotiations to become distraction during the season).  In something of a curious move, Cashman openly discussed the Yankees’ offer, saying that the slugger was offered a seven-year, $213.5MM deal covering the 2023-29 season.

While reports were somewhat mixed on Judge’s demands, there was some indication he was looking for a $36MM average annual value.  It would be quite a commitment for a player who is already in his age-30 season, and yet Judge’s continued superstar numbers make a persuasive argument that he is worth that kind of money.

Since extensions are pretty rare in the Hal Steinbrenner era, it remains to be seen if even Judge is an exception to this more-or-less steadfast team policy.  It could be that the two sides don’t re-engage in contract talks until after the season, making Judge’s status a lingering storyline over the coming months.  The Yankees and Judge himself would probably prefer that the focus remains on the team’s performance, and should this end up being Judge’s last  year in the Bronx, a World Series ring would be a fine way to cap off his stint in the pinstripes.

Big Hype Prospects: Lewis, Miranda, Melendez

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Big Hype Prospects returns in time for a big Twins-themed update. Let’s eschew the ado.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Royce Lewis, 22, SS, MIN (AAA)
107 PA, 3 HR, 8 SB, .310/.430/.563

A former first overall prospect who flirted with the “bust” label for a few moments, Lewis chewed through Triple-A and should have a chance to stick for good if he performs. The proximate need is an injury to Carlos Correa which is expected to require a stint on the injured list. There’s still plenty of opportunity elsewhere in the infield if and when Correa returns. Neither Gio Urshela nor Jose Miranda (more on him in a moment) have staked strong claims to a job.

COVID and an ACL injury wiped out Lewis’ 2020 and 2021 seasons. However, this 2022 rebound was widely anticipated – he had shown considerable growth last spring prior to the knee injury. Lewis has an exciting combination of athleticism not seen in Minnesota since the arrival of Byron Buxton. While his three home runs in 107 plate appearances aren’t indicative of an elite power hitter, it’s worth noting he hit 11 doubles and a triple too. Overall, that’s 15 extra-base hits and 12 singles, a ratio which portends productivity if he stays healthy and continues making contact.

Keep an eye on his walk rate and plate discipline in the Majors. He’s long been an aggressive hitter, yet he managed a 15.9 percent walk rate this season. I don’t have any information on this apparent discipline breakout. Swing decisions are the cutting edge of hitter analytics right now so we’ll want to learn if his walks are a small sample fluke, the result of teams pitching around him, or a new aspect of his game.

Jose Miranda, 23, CI, MIN (MLB)
17 PA, .118/.118/.176

Prospect watchers had their eye on Miranda this spring. That’s because, last season, he hit 30 home runs with a .344 batting average in 591 plate appearances split between Double-A and Triple-A. Scouts don’t love Miranda from a defensive perspective. Though he’s capable of manning second or third base, he’s better-suited to first base or designated hitter. He’s a free swinger with a knack for making contact and above average pop. Personally, I’m getting vague Maikel Franco flashbacks, albeit with less swing-and-miss. He ends fewer than 20 percent of plate appearances with a walk or strikeout, a rarity in today’s game. The FanGraphs prospect crew offer Ty France as a loose comp, though it’s important to remember the current iteration of France has exceeded the expectations of nearly every scout and evaluator.

Miguel Sano is expected to miss a significant amount of time so Miranda should have ample opportunity to build upon both this slow start, and a tepid .256/.295/.442 batting line he posted in 95 Triple-A plate appearances. His internal competition for starts are Urshela and outfielders like Alex Kirilloff (once healthy).

Josh Winder, 25, SP, MIN (MLB)
16.1 IP, 2.20 ERA, 6.61 K/9, 2.20 BB/9

Winder earned a spot in the Opening Day bullpen after crafting an epic Spring Training. While the actual recorded stats appeared ordinary, evaluators raved about the quality of his stuff. Winder has a four-pitch repertoire of 50-grade offerings – league average in scouting parlance. They play up due to above-average command. A variety of injuries in the rotation have gifted him with an opportunity to start. His debut start came on May 1 when he worked six innings against the Rays. He allowed just two hits and a walk while striking out seven batters. Winder has undeniable swing-and-miss stuff (12.2% SwStr%), but he’s yet to show consistency with inducing strikeouts.

MJ Melendez, 23, C, KC (MLB)
(AAA) 91 PA, 2 HR, 3 SB, .167/.286/.295

Between stomping upper minors pitching for 41 home runs in 531 plate appearances last season and an equally impressive Spring Training, Melendez would have made most Opening Day rosters. Instead, the positionally deep Royals sent him to Triple-A where he scuffled in part due to a .204 BABIP. A need for a backup catcher opened a brief opportunity for him earlier this week. In seven plate appearances, he’s shown how he terrorized minor league pitching last season via loud contact. Of his six batted ball events, four are “hard” with a 95.6-mph average exit velocity. For now, he’s mostly competing with Hunter Dozier for designated hitter reps.

Max Meyer, 23, SP, MIA (AAA)
26.1 IP, 1.71 ERA, 11.28 K/9, 2.05 BB/9

Elieser Hernandez has posted a devilish 6.66 ERA in five starts (24.1 IP). Meyer, meanwhile, is steamrolling Triple-A hitters. He’s rumored to be in consideration to take Hernandez’s next turn in the rotation. Meyer isn’t exactly a traditional scout’s dream – he’s small and mostly leans on a two-pitch repertoire. His fastball and slider are elite offerings that play well off each other. His changeup lags behind but is considered usable. His stuff is sufficiently electric to make up for below-average command. He doesn’t issue many free passes which he achieves by missing in the zone and trusting his stuff to carry the day. He could produce ace-like numbers. However, we should expect a short-burst role similar to early-career Lance McCullers.

Five More

Kyle Bradish (25): Bradish has made two starts since we discussed him last week. I noted we should “monitor his ability to generate called and swinging strikes.” Thus far, his 13.9 percent called and 9.3 percent swinging strike rates are slightly below league average. Incidentally, he’s managed 4.50 K/9 in 10 innings. We’ll keep watching.

Matt Brash (24): In early April, Brash sizzled in his debut start during which I wondered if big league hitters might stop bailing him out by swinging at his unhittable breaking ball. It was never in the zone. They proceeded to do just that. Brash was recently demoted to Triple-A where he’ll serve as a reliever. Many expect this to be a permanent role reassignment. He could be an elite stopper.

George Kirby (24): The Mariners have progressed slowly with Kirby’s development due to a history of injury issues. With Brash exiting the rotation, Kirby has an outside chance to double-jump to the Majors. One of the top pitching prospects in the game, he’s produced a 1.82 ERA with 11.68 K/9 and 1.82 BB/9 in 24.2 Double-A innings. A gradual ascent through Triple-A is likelier.

Adley Rutschman (24): Rutschman is basically on a rehab assignment. He’ll be in the Majors soon. Since our last update, he hit .526/.591/.737 in 22 plate appearances. He also posted three walks and only one strikeout.

Roansy Contreras (22): The Pirates are still carefully managing Contreras’ workload. While many of us hoped he was demoted to Triple-A to build his pitch count, he faced 15 batters on April 24 and only 13 batters on April 30. He’s due for another start. Look for more batters faced.

18 Potential Starting Pitcher Trade Targets This Summer

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Less than three months remain until the August 2nd MLB trade deadline, and starting pitching is always a hot commodity.  Here’s a look at 18 starters who might be available in the coming months.

Top of the rotation-ish

  • Frankie Montas, Athletics: Under team control through 2023, Montas continues to be an obvious trade candidate who can make a major impact on a contending team.  He’s picked up right where he left off last year, with a 3.44 ERA and the skills to match.  Having moved Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt after the lockout ended, the A’s are now primed to spark a bidding war for Montas.
  • Luis Castillo, Reds: Castillo has shown the ability to pitch near the top of a rotation, even though he struggled in his first ten starts of 2021.  Like Montas, Castillo is under team control through ’23.  Castillo opened the season on the IL due to a shoulder injury, but he’s penciled in for his debut Monday.  If he remains healthy, Castillo should be able to make around 15 starts prior to the trade deadline, so suitors will have plenty of information.  The Reds may be able to extract a premium prospect for Castillo.
  • Marcus Stroman, Cubs: Stroman may not be thought of as a true ace, but a 3.02 ERA in 33 starts last year is nothing to sniff at.  Though Stroman’s ERA sits at 5.13 through five starts, his skills seem unchanged.  I generally expect the Cubs to keep Stroman, as trading a player this early into a trumpeted three-year deal is a bad look.  Plus, Stroman is on a three-year, $71MM contract with an opt-out after ’23, which may not hold appeal to certain clubs.
  • Yu Darvish and Blake Snell, Padres: Once Snell returns from a groin strain IL stint this month, the Padres will simply have too many starting pitchers if everyone else remains healthy.  Trading Darvish or Snell would alleviate that situation and give them financial flexibility to improve elsewhere.  The Padres may not wait until the trade deadline to address the logjam.  While Darvish and Snell had disappointing seasons in 2021, both remain capable of pitching near the top of a rotation.  With more than $40MM owed and a 12-team no-trade clause, Darvish could be tricky to move.

Middle and back of the rotation

  • Tyler Mahle, Reds: Mahle pitched to a 3.72 ERA with a 28.1 K% from 2020-21, but he owns a 7.01 ERA through his first six starts this year.  Mahle, who seems to have cut his slider usage significantly this year, is not missing bats like he has in the past and is averaging only 4.28 innings per start.  Mahle is under team control through 2023, and given his past success will be targeted whether or not he’s able to right the ship with the Reds.
  • Mike Minor, Reds: Minor is battling a shoulder injury and working his way toward a minor league rehab assignment.  If he’s healthy and pitching acceptably, the Reds may flip him at the deadline to save money.
  • Zack Greinke and Brad Keller, Royals: Greinke’s early success includes a strikeout rate of just 6.5%.  He’s on a one-year, $13MM deal and the Royals figure to defer to his preferences regarding a potential trade.  Keller, who is under team control through ’23, also doesn’t miss bats, but does sport a strong groundball rate and ERA in the early going.
  • Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly, Wade Miley, Cubs: Hendricks’ unique soft-tossing approach has resulted in a 4.90 ERA since 2021, and he has about $27MM remaining on his contract through ’23.  Trading him at this stage would be a disappointing end to a player who has meant so much to the franchise.  On an affordable one-year deal, Smyly is more likely to go, though his skills have been middling since ’21.  Miley has yet to make his Cubs debut due to elbow inflammation, but he’s set to make a minor league rehab start tonight in St. Paul.  While the Cubs in a sense have a starting rotation full of trade candidates, the returns wouldn’t be impressive and the club might elect not to decimate that group without worthy replacements.
  • Martin Perez, Rangers, Jose Quintana, Pirates, Michael Pineda, Tigers: Though early results are good, there’s nothing skills-wise to recommend these guys.  Their teams could could flip them to someone looking for depth, but there’s little urgency.
  • Jordan Lyles, Orioles: The Orioles signed Lyles to eat some innings, so they might as well let him eat some innings this year.  But they could probably be convinced to trade him.
  • Patrick Corbin, Nationals: With $78MM remaining on his contract, Corbin could only be moved as part of a salary dump.
  • Stephen Strasburg, Nationals: With $169MM remaining through 2026, Strasburg has one of the least tradeable contracts in baseball.  He was set to face live hitters yesterday at the Nats’ spring training facility as he recovers from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery underwent last July.  I suppose there’s a scenario where he pitches for a month in the Majors and looks like 2019 Strasburg, and someone goes about the complicated process of taking on some of his contract, but it’s unlikely.

As always, the market will take shape around the middle of July.  The Phillies still have a reasonable shot at the playoffs at present despite a disappointing start, but if they fall further, impending free agents like Zach Eflin and Kyle Gibson could be traded.  The Red Sox are in a similar place, and could put some interesting names on the market like Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Sale, and James Paxton.

Offseason In Review: Texas Rangers

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The Rangers teased an “active” offseason just before the free agent period opened. They followed through on that promise in a big way, surprisingly landing two of the market’s five high-end shortstops. It probably isn’t enough to take them from a last-place team to the playoffs, but they hope they’ve landed a couple foundational pieces for 2023 and beyond.

Major League Signings

Trades and claims

Extensions

  • None

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Rangers went into the offseason on the heels of their third last-place finish in four years. Texas was at least amidst a retool, if not a full rebuild, and it had shown at the major league level — particularly in the results of the pitching staff. As they moved some established veterans and auditioned younger players, they stayed quiet during the 2020-21 offseason. Their biggest commitment that winter was the two-year, $7.34MM investment (including posting fee) in Japanese starter Kohei Arihara, who was making the jump from NPB.

This time around, though, Texas teased more to come. As the offseason neared, both president of baseball operations Jon Daniels and general manager Chris Young hinted at a more exciting winter in Arlington. Daniels suggested the club wouldn’t rule itself out on anyone available in free agency; Young stated they’d be “very active” in bringing in upgrades. The Rangers entered the offseason as a team to watch, but few would’ve envisioned just how aggressive they’d ultimately be.

In early November, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported that Texas could add as much as $100MM in 2022 spending relative to last year’s payroll. That didn’t wind up happening, but it reinforced that the Rangers would play for stars. Whom would that be? The possibilities were boundless. With very few internal options locked in around the diamond and oodles of financial flexibility, the front office could cast a wide net.

The Rangers looked like a strong landing spot for any of the top five free agent shortstops. Dallas-area native Trevor Story was frequently speculated as a potential target, but Texas grabbing any of Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien or Javier Báez seemed viable. One could argue that Semien, as the oldest of the group, made the least amount of sense for a Rangers team in transition, but any could’ve been the team’s marquee pickup.

Texas was linked to each of Story, Semien and Seager in the offseason’s first few weeks, and they made the first strike of the shortstop market. The Rangers signed Semien in late November to a seven-year, $175MM deal that topped MLBTR’s projection by a year and $37MM. It was a big bet on a player headed into his age-31 season, but few players have been as productive as Semien over the past three years. He’s an excellent defensive second baseman, has been remarkably durable and typically offers well above-average offense at the top of the lineup (although he’s off to a slow start in 2022).

A top-three finisher in AL MVP voting in two of the last three yeras, Semien alone could’ve been the Rangers’ big addition. He received what wound up being the third-largest guarantee among free agents, and Texas surrendered a high second-round draft pick to bring him in. Yet even after they landed Semien, reports emerged that Texas was also making a push for Seager.

Indeed, the Rangers wooed Seager from L.A. on a massive ten-year, $325MM contract. It was the sixth-largest guarantee in MLB history and checked in 11th all-time in terms of average annual value. While no one knew it at the time, the Seager deal would also wind up being by far the biggest sum handed out over the offseason, as Correa pivoted to a short-term deal late in Spring Training. One could nitpick Seager’s long-term defensive fit and injury history, but there’s little question about his offensive upside. Headed into his age-28 season, he’s a prime-aged star who should be a middle-of-the-order presence for the better part of the 2020’s.

Seager’s a perfectly sensible long-term building block, and the Rangers (who had already forfeited their second-highest pick to sign Semien) paid a comparatively lower draft penalty than most other suitors would have to land him. Yet it still registered as a shock to see any team sign two of the five star free agents in the middle infield, particularly a last-place club.

While Seager and Semien went down as Texas’ most impactful moves, that wasn’t all they did in the days leading up to the lockout. The front office also found time to hammer out a four-year deal with former Rockies starter Jon Gray in between signing their star infielders. A former #3 overall pick with solid or better velocity, swinging-strike and ground-ball numbers, Gray was one of the more intriguing starting pitching options available. It was easy to dream on his promise outside of the league’s most hitter-friendly environment, even if Gray had been a bit up-and-down from a results perspective in Colorado. This inconsistency may have been one of the reasons the Rockies (somewhat bizarrely) passed on issuing Gray a qualifying offer, so he didn’t come attached with any further draft pick compensation. Gray’s $56MM guarantee exactly matched MLBTR’s pre-offseason projection.

In one final pre-lockout pickup, Texas snagged veteran corner outfielder Kole Calhoun on a one-year deal. The guarantee was a fairly modest $5.2MM, and the deal included a club option for 2023. It was a buy-low flier on a player who has typically been productive throughout his career. Calhoun, though, is now 34 and coming off an injury-hampered campaign.

The Rangers forcefully demonstrated their presence on the market during the pre-lockout spending spree. The work stoppage offered the front office a chance to reset and identify their next steps. Seager, Semien, Gray and Calhoun unquestionably made the team much better, but the roster still had room for a further shakeup. Reports during the lockout painted a broad picture of Texas’ plans whenever transactions could resume.

First, it became apparent Texas still had a pair of primary targets, including Dallas native Clayton Kershaw. From the beginning, it seemed as if Kershaw’s choice came down to a return to Los Angeles or signing with his hometown club, and the Rangers made no secret about their hope he’d take the latter route.

Texas also geared up for a run at A’s first baseman Matt Olson. A star player whom Oakland was obviously preparing to move, Olson was no doubt a priority target for many teams. Texas perhaps faced an uphill battle in convincing the Athletics to deal Olson to a division rival, although the Rangers’ incredibly deep farm system at least seemed to put them in the running.

There was also the question of how the club would proceed with previous shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa. He’d obviously been pushed out of the middle infield. Third base was a possibility, but top prospect Josh Jung was on the doorstep of the majors. They could always keep him around as a depth piece, but Kiner-Falefa was probably overqualified for such a role.

Once the lockout lifted, all three questions resolved themselves in fairly short order. Texas came up empty on their Kershaw and Olson pursuits. The future Hall of Fame southpaw went back to Los Angeles; Oakland dealt Olson to the Braves. Jung suffered a shoulder injury that required surgery and will cost him most of 2022, seemingly opening a spot for Kiner-Falefa to bounce back to the hot corner. Ultimately, however, the 27-year-old proved a more valuable trade piece after showing he could handle shortstop last season.

In what would go down as the Rangers’ biggest trade of the offseason, Kiner-Falefa and pitching prospect Ronny Henriquez were dealt to the Twins for catcher Mitch Garver. The righty-hitting backstop is controllable through 2023 and has had some injury concerns in recent years, but he’s typically been excellent when healthy. Garver was one of the sport’s best offensive catchers in both 2019 and 2021, marking a clear upgrade for a Texas team whose catchers were in the bottom five at the plate last year. (The Twins, of course, would go on to flip Kiner-Falefa to the Yankees and kick off the chain of events that led to Minnesota’s shocking Correa pickup).

With Jung injured and Kiner-Falefa dealt, third base was wide open. There was some brief speculation about the Rangers circling back to the still-unsigned Story and landing three of the top free agent infielders, but that didn’t come to be. Instead, Texas went more affordable with their final multi-year deal of the offseason, bringing in bat-first utilityman Brad Miller for two years and $10MM.

Miller’s not a great fit anywhere on the diamond, but he posted above-average hitting numbers every year between 2019-21. He’s capable of rotating between all four corner spots and second base (although the latter won’t be necessary so long as Semien’s healthy). Miller’s left-handed bat pairs with righty-swinging depth infielders Andy Ibáñez and Charlie Culberson, the latter of whom made the team after re-signing on a minor league deal. They also signed former TCU infielder and three-time All-Star Matt Carpenter to a non-roster deal, gauging if a swing overhaul can help the veteran bounce back from a few poor seasons.

The Miller deal more or less closed the book on the position player moves for Texas. The Rangers felt comfortable enough with their infield depth to send Yonny Hernández to the D-Backs for a low-level outfield prospect. With Garver on-hand as the new starting catcher, Texas traded backstop Jose Trevino to the Yankees for reliever Albert Abreu.

Garver and Jonah Heim formed the tandem behind the dish. Nathaniel Lowe is back at first base after a nice 2021 season. The Rangers were willing to supplant him for Olson, but that was always more about a run at a marquee player than a desire to move on from Lowe. Semien and Seager are the middle infield duo for the foreseeable future, with the aforementioned trio of Miller, Ibañez and Culberson plugging the hot corner.

Miller is also working into the corner outfield. He, Calhoun and Zach Reks (whom the Rangers picked up for cash after the Dodgers DFA’ed him in November) are left-handed hitting options on the grass and at designated hitter. That was also true of Willie Calhoun, although his future with the organization could be in question now that he’s gone public about his desire to be traded after being optioned to Triple-A. The righty-hitting Nick Solak is picking up left field/DH work against left-handed pitching, while 2021 breakout performer Adolis García remains as the primary center fielder.

There’s probably no team in MLB that did more over the offseason to improve its offensive group. Texas’ lineup still doesn’t have the depth of the game’s best units, but they’ve arguably added four or five above-average bats in a six-month span. If those players stay healthy, it’s not hard to picture the Rangers finishing in the top half of the league offensively.

The pitching staff, on the other hand, still looks to be among the league’s worst. Gray is an exciting addition, but he’s probably miscast as a staff ace. Dane Dunning is a capable back-of-the-rotation starter, but the other three spots were essentially up for grabs coming out of the lockout. To plug one hole, Texas brought back old friend Martín Pérez on a $4MM deal. The southpaw consistently posts an ERA in the 4.40-5.00 range, so while he should offer some affordable bulk innings, he’s not going to overhaul the staff from a results perspective.

Otherwise, Texas is left relying on many of the same pitchers who struggled last season. Taylor Hearn, Spencer Howard, Kolby Allard and (to lesser extents) A.J. Alexy and Glenn Otto all drew some praise as prospects. None has yet had much MLB success in the rotation, although Hearn fared alright in relief last year. The Rangers will continue to give those pitchers some run as they await the arrival of their next group of highly-regarded prospects like Jack Leiter, Cole Winn and Owen White.

They’re also playing a bit of a waiting game in the bullpen, although in that case, it’s in anticipation of a return of a pair of their top arms from Tommy John surgery. Both José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández underwent the procedure in early 2021, setting them up as hopeful midseason returnees this year. Unsurprisingly, Texas had a below-average relief corps last year after losing arguably their two best late-game options. They’re seemingly content to hope that Leclerc and Hernández can reestablish themselves alongside pitchers like Joe Barlow and Brett Martin, as they didn’t make many major investments in the bullpen this offseason.

The one reliever signed to a big league deal was Garrett Richards, who received $5.5MM. The veteran righty has long tantalized with impressive velocity and spin, but he’s struggled with his control and gotten inconsistent results. Bumped out of the Red Sox’s rotation last August, Richards initially looked as if he might blossom in shorter stints, but he finished the year with a rough September.

Beyond Richards, the newcomers in the bullpen were low-cost pickups. Abreu, acquired from New York for Trevino, is out of minor league options and seemed to be on the fringe of the roster in the Bronx. He’s a power arm who has posted massive strikeout totals in the minors, but he has bottom-of-the-scale control. He’s an intriguing dice roll but far from a certainty. Veterans Greg Holland and Matt Moore both made the MLB roster after signing minor league contracts. Holland was released after four games; Moore has only allowed one run in 12 innings thus far, but he’s also issued nine walks and is coming off a poor season with the Phillies.

In all likelihood, the Rangers didn’t turn themselves into a contender. That was never really the goal of the offseason, though. “I don’t think we expect to just come out and be World Series contenders next season,” Young told reporters at the GM Meetings in early November. “That said, we expect to take major steps from where we were this year and continue to build this so that by 2023, we’re in a very good position and competing for the division and have the opportunity to make the playoffs and potentially win a World Series.”

Texas set out to install some foundational pieces for 2023 and beyond. They did just that, adding what they expect to be an elite middle infield, a mid-rotation or better arm, and a new catcher. Whether the Rangers’ overarching goal for the offseason was right can be debated. Waiting another season to push the chips in would’ve been more conventional for a rebuilding club, at the very least. One could even argue they didn’t do enough — that once they’d landed Semien and Seager, they should’ve attacked the pitching staff even more aggressively to push for the playoffs immediately. Yet Rangers brass clearly views 2022 as a stepping stone, the final year before everything clicks and they can realistically expect to compete at the top of the AL West. Those efforts will be anchored by the players brought in during a foundational winters for the franchise.

Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Rays

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The Rays made some modest free-agent investments, cleaned up a 40-man roster crunch via the trade market and issued the largest contract in franchise history to solidify their burgeoning star shortstop as a bona fide franchise cornerstone.

Major League Signings

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Entering the offseason, the Rays had a noted 40-man roster crunch. With a staggering 19 players eligible for arbitration and several prospects in need of protection from a Rule 5 Draft that never happened — though no one knew that would be the case at the time — a slate of trades appeared to be a foregone conclusion. Tampa Bay shipped out infielder Mike Brosseau, righties Brent Honeywell Jr. and Louis Head, and first baseman/outfielder Jordan Luplow in early, mostly minor swaps. Brosseau, Honeywell, Head and righty Tobias Myers were dealt before the Nov. 19 tender deadline. Luplow went a week later.

In terms of more notable dealings, the Rays again linked up with a frequent trading partner, sending Joey Wendle to Miami just days before the lockout. Wendle was a key role player whose arbitration price had perhaps climbed to the point where a Rays team deep in affordable infield/outfield options deemed it untenable. The Marlins, lacking such depth (at least on the position-player side of the coin) parted with outfield prospect Kameron Misner, whom they’d tabbed with the No. 35 overall pick in 2019. Misner isn’t necessarily regarded as a premium prospect, but he’s a toolsy 24-year-old with good speed and defense, a knack for drawing walks and decent power marks in the minors.

The Wendle trade — as with the Rays’ earlier swaps — was hardly an indication that Tampa Bay was looking to tear things down. Quite to the contrary, it was yet another data point in the team’s penchant for selling high on players they believe they can replace more affordably in-house, even if said player has multiple, generally affordable years of control remaining. The Rays, who won 100 games in 2021, entered the offseason firmly intent on contending for another AL East crown in 2022, and their November signings of veterans Corey Kluber and Brooks Raley speak to that reality.

Kluber’s 2021 season was a mixed bag, and that’s reflected in his fairly modest $8MM price tag. Three calendar years have elapsed since Kluber was last viewed as a Cy Young, Game 1-caliber starter. A broken forearm, an oblique strain, a teres major strain and last year’s shoulder strain have all dampened his productivity. Kluber was a solid but generally unspectacular mid-rotation piece with the Yankees in 2021, when healthy. That may sound like underselling a pitcher who tossed a no-hitter last May, but set aside that historic gem and one dominant, eight-inning victory over the Tigers a few weeks prior, and the bulk of Kluber’s starts were pedestrian. He tossed 17 scoreless frames in those two outings and otherwise allowed 37 runs in 63 frames. From the point of his activation from the injured list, Kluber worked to a 5.40 ERA in his final 26 2/3 innings.

None of that is intended as an indictment on Kluber. Rather, it’s to illustrate the reasons he was generally affordable and to point to the perhaps boom-or-bust nature he now brings to Tampa Bay. Kluber showed full well that he’s still capable of dominating at times last year, but he’s averaging five innings per start with the Rays and is sitting at 90.8 mph with a career-low strikeout rate through four outings. The Rays more than deserve the benefit of the doubt when it comes to maximizing a pitcher’s abilities, but Kluber isn’t the workhorse he once was and arguably doesn’t offer much more than a third or fourth starter’s upside over the duration of a full season’s workload.

As for Raley, he was the recipient of a perhaps unexpected two-year commitment. That it came from a data-driven club like Tampa Bay is hardly a surprise. Raley had the lowest opponents’ average exit velocity of any MLB pitcher in both 2020 and 2021, pairing that with elite spin rates on his heater and breaking pitch, as well as gaudy strikeout and swinging-strike totals. The fact that Raley cashed in on a multi-year deal despite a 4.83 ERA in that 2020-21 period is another reminder that most teams in 2022 care little about traditional baseball-card numbers.

While Kluber and Raley were the team’s two biggest free-agent pickups prior to the lockout (and, as it turned out, of the entire offseason), the most notable move they made before baseball’s shutdown was locking down explosive young shortstop Wander Franco for more than a decade. The 21-year-old wunderkind debuted last year and showed no signs of his youth and inexperience, hitting at a .288/.347/.463 pace and at one point reaching base in 43 consecutive games.

Franco’s contract is not only a record for the Rays but also the largest contract ever given to a player with under a year of service time — eclipsing Ronald Acuna Jr.’s eight-year, $100MM deal by a considerable margin. There’s obviously a fair bit of risk when committing a sum of this magnitude to a player who has appeared in all of 70 Major League games, but Franco has been heralded as a potential superstar since signing for a $4MM bonus as a 16-year-old amateur. Had the Rays waited even another year, they might’ve been priced out of the picture entirely. Fernando Tatis Jr., for instance, signed a $341MM extension with just two years of Major League service time. As teams have become increasingly confident in their long-term projections and shown a willingness to pay closer to market value on extensions of this nature, the ability to secure a legitimate superstar talent at a bargain-basement rate has largely eroded.

That’s not to characterize the Franco extension as an overpay, of course. If Franco performs as expected, the roughly $25.4MM annual value associated with what would have been his first five free-agent seasons would be an unmitigated bargain. That’s true even by today’s standards but figures to be even more emphatically true come the 2027-28 offseason — when Franco would’ve been scheduled to reach the market.

There’s some risk associated on both sides of the agreement. There’s a real chance that Franco will end up having “left money on the table,” just as there’s risk for the Rays that injuries derail Franco’s career or that, more unexpectedly, his development stalls out. But the Rays have to be thrilled to have him locked up, Franco himself has a chance to earn $200MM by the time he’s in his early 30s, and Rays fans can treat this as a watershed moment in their franchise’s history. Owners of other small-market clubs may not love to see the low-payroll Rays spending at this level — it bucks the narrative that said teams can’t afford to extend their own stars — but generally speaking the extension feels like a rare win for all parties. Even the MLBPA must be pleased to see Franco advance the record for players with less than a year of service by 82%; as recently as 2019, no player with under a year of service had even topped $26MM in guaranteed money.

With Franco extended, Kluber and Raley in the door, and a lot of 40-man maintenance performed on the trade market, the Rays headed into the lockout having already completed a good chunk of their offseason business. Given the team’s payroll, there was still some thought that a few trades could come together following the lockout. Perennial trade candidate Kevin Kiermaier, earning $12MM in the final guaranteed year of his contract, acknowledged that he felt he might be destined for a change of scenery. Tyler Glasnow, out for most if not all of the 2022 season but earning a $5.1MM salary, also conceded he’d thought about whether Tampa Bay would move him.

Reports throughout the winter had suggested that left fielder/designated hitter Austin Meadows could also be on the move, and in the end, it was Meadows alone who proved to be the only post-lockout subtraction of note on the trade market. The Tigers, having incurred multiple outfield injuries, shipped infielder Isaac Paredes and a Competitive Balance (Round B) draft selection to the Rays shortly before Opening Day, securing three years of control over Meadows in the process.

Paredes, 23, isn’t far removed from being a well-regarded prospect within the Tigers and Cubs systems, but he’s struggled at the plate through 57 big league games thus far in his still-young career. The Tigers undoubtedly were happy to secure three years of control over a potential 30-homer bat, defensive limitations notwithstanding. The Rays, meanwhile, have a strong developmental track record and typically place a premium on players with Paredes’ type of versatility. He’s already played second base, shortstop and third base in the big leagues, and while he came to the team with 1.009 years of service, he’s already spent enough time in the minors that he can’t get to two full years in 2022. In other words, he’ll be controlled until at least the 2027-28 offseason. Adding a pick in the mid-70s, and the draft pool money associated with it, is an additional bonus that’ll help the Rays maintain their always deep farm system.

Some fans may consider the return light for the Rays, but Tampa Bay has regularly moved on from first base/corner outfield bats as their arbitration prices climb. In offseasons past, the Rays designated both C.J. Cron and Jesus Aguilar for assignment — Cron on the heels of a 30-homer season — rather than pay either a raise in arbitration. Corey Dickerson was traded to the Pirates for a minimal return on the heels of an All-Star season with Tampa Bay in 2017. To the Rays’ credit, they’re usually able to find affordable replacements for those corner bats they’ve deemed expendable — one of the myriad reasons they remain in contention on a perennial basis.

The remainder of the Rays’ post-lockout dealings were modest in nature — although that’s not for lack of effort. The Rays emerged as a surprise, legitimate suitor for Freddie Freeman. Tampa Bay offered Freeman a guaranteed $150MM, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link) — a fairly shocking sum from them but one made possible by the team’s generally clean long-term payroll outlook. The Rays were also linked to Seiya Suzuki, reportedly offering nearly as much as the $85MM put forth by the Cubs. Either would’ve been the largest free-agent commitment ever made by Tampa Bay, trouncing the former franchise record, which is incredibly still just the two-year, $30MM deal given to Charlie Morton a few years back. (Franco, Evan Longoria and others have signed larger deals, but those were extensions rather than open-market expenditures.)

Ultimately, the majority of the Rays’ post-lockout moves were depth-oriented. Luke Raley — no relation to the aforementioned Brooks Raley — will help to replace some of the corner depth lost in the Meadows deal. That’s also true of the out-of-options Harold Ramirez, who’s had a hot start in a limited role and figures to continue holding a bench spot so long as he’s reasonably productive, as he can’t be sent to Triple-A without first clearing waivers.

Moving on from Meadows also paved a clearer path to the big leagues for touted prospect Josh Lowe, and while he was just optioned out after a tough start to the season, he’s viewed as a key long-term piece in St. Petersburg. With Lowe, Brett Phillips, Randy Arozarena and especially Kiermaier and Manuel Margot, the Rays have a premium defensive contingent for the outfield.

This may be the final year that Kiermaier counts himself among the group — the Rays hold a $13MM club option for 2023 ($2.5MM buyout) that they may deem too expensive — but the front office’s final notable move of the winter ensured that Margot will continue to provide them with stellar glovework for the foreseeable future. Margot inked a two-year, $19MM contract just prior to Opening Day. It’s yet another example of the Rays valuing skill sets they find harder to acquire than the prototypical bat-first, corner sluggers they’ve repeatedly been willing to cast off.

Margot is one of the game’s great defensive outfielders, and while he’s been at best an average hitter, it’s often more difficult to find an elite defender with passable offense than it is to find an above-average hitter with sub-par defensive skills. Margot would’ve been a free agent at season’s end, and a young one at that (28), but with any kind of offensive slip, his free-agent stock would’ve been severely hindered. He opted to lock in an eight-figure guarantee now, and while it’s a risk-averse approach for him, he also knows he can still hit the market at age 30.

Beyond Kluber, the Rays didn’t bring in any high-profile names, but they also didn’t really need to. Locking Franco up for the long haul was a franchise-defining move, and the majority of the talent by which he’s surrounded is already controlled affordably for years to come. If there’s one area the Rays could’ve perhaps been more proactive, it was in further acquiring rotation depth. Tampa Bay patched things together in 2021, looking ahead to an enviable core of Shane McClanahan, Shane Baz and Luis Patino atop the rotation mix. Even after they knew Glasnow would miss most of 2022, they still had Drew Rasmussen coming off a potential breakout, Brendan McKay and Yonny Chirinos on the mend, plus Ryan Yarbrough as an innings-eating option. But there are a lot of health concerns mixed into that group, and the Rays are again leaning on openers with Baz, McKay, Chirinos, Patino and Glasnow on the injured list. Luring veterans on minor league deals was probably difficult because of that deep reserve of pitching talent, but it’d be nice to have some extra hands to consider with so many injuries having arisen.

That minor critique aside, the Rays are yet again poised to compete for a division title even after yet again trading away some recognizable names. And on the position-player side of things, there’s effectively a top-100 prospect waiting in the wings should anyone other than Mike Zunino go down with an injury. Vidal Brujan can play the middle infield and the outfield. Josh Lowe is a plus defender in center. Curtis Mead is adept at either corner. The pipeline of young talent is seemingly endless at Tropicana Field, and that’ll serve the Rays well both in terms of roster depth and trade possibilities when they’re looking to improve this summer.

Offseason In Review: San Francisco Giants

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The Giants witnessed the departures of several key players this offseason, but made some targeted free agent strikes and filled their rotation with pitchers on short-term deals. The team is banking on veteran depth and a few new diamonds in the rough to recreate last year’s miraculous run to the postseason.

Major League Signings

Options Exercised

Trades and Claims

Extensions

  • Signed 1B/OF Darin Ruf to a two-year, $6.25MM extension (deal also includes a $3.5MM option for 2024)

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

After winning a franchise-record 107 games that even the most optimistic prognosticators didn’t see coming, the Giants entered this offseason with a straightforward goal: do it again. Any team would be hard-pressed to collect triple-digit win totals in back-to-back seasons, but San Francisco finds themselves in a uniquely odd spot to attempt the feat. In their last full season in 2019 the team won only 77 games and ended 29 games back of first place, and yet when they fielded almost the exact same veteran core two years later they tacked on 30 wins and eked out a division title over the Dodgers, who again won 106 games. Career years from the Giants’ veteran roster made all the difference in 2021, but until the 2022 season is in the books it’s impossible to say if this was a perfect storm or the new normal moving forward. 

Complicating the team’s hope of this being the new normal is that one of their most counted upon veterans retired at the onset of the offseason. Long-time catcher Buster Posey hung up his spikes after a dozen seasons in the league, a decision that has more than just sentimental ramifications for the club. In his 2021 comeback campaign, Posey slugged at a rate not seen since his age-25 MVP season in 2012. The 34-year-old’s production served as a final feather in the cap of the future Hall-of-Famer’s career, but 113 games of a .304/.390/.499 (140 OPS+) slash line will be hard to replace from an organizational perspective. Joey Bart is the heir apparent to San Francisco’s catching throne and a former second overall pick but will have a tough act to follow, particularly considering he had just 35 games of big league experience heading into 2022.

While Posey’s departure caught many by surprise, for reasons ranging from his elite play to the fact that the team held a $22MM club option over his services for 2022, he wasn’t the only retirement party recipient this winter. Left-handed reliever Tony Watson, who spent three and a half of the last four seasons by the Bay, also called it a career after shoulder issues dashed his 2022 ambitions. The 36-year-old reliever was no lock to return to the club even if his health permitted, but it’s worth remembering that in a lights out bullpen last season it was Watson who was the least hittable. 

A pair of retirement decisions were out of the Giants’ control, but they struck early and often to keep some of their top 2021 talents in the fold. On November 7 the team exercised a trio of very affordable club options to keep infielder Wilmer Flores, left-handed reliever Jose Alvarez, and right-handed reliever Jay Jackson under team control. Alvarez racked up ground balls en route to a career season, and should team with fellow lefties Jake McGee and Jarlin Garcia to minimize the blow of Watson’s exit. Jackson, interestingly, was flipped to the Braves for cash or a PTBNL shortly after his option was picked up. Flores, meanwhile, was the consummate utility infielder last season, backing up first, second, and third base while posting a 111 OPS+ across 139 games. His easy retainment proves all the more valuable considering the team’s corner infielders, Evan Longoria and Brandon Belt, have racked up a fair bit of IL time in their careers.

Speaking of Belt, the “Captain” forewent an extended trip into free agency after the team issued him an $18.4MM qualifying offer. He’ll continue to man first base at a high level when healthy enough to take the field, though the universal DH may help keep the longest-tenured Giant fresher than he’s been in years past. Keeping Belt around through his age-34 season carries some risk, as he’s endured heel, oblique, knee, and finger injuries the past couple of seasons. Despite those injury concerns, however, Belt is enough of a force at the plate— he hit a team-leading 29 home runs in just 97 games last season— that his upside far outweighs the risk of a single year pact. Belt is currently on the IL after testing positive for COVID.

Belt wasn’t the only captain to have his Giants tenure extended, as the team’s official skipper, manager Gabe Kapler, received a 2-year extension through 2024. The reigning NL Manager of the Year was an integral part of the club’s surprising division title and was credited, along with his fellow coaches, for helping so many of the club’s players reach unexpected heights in 2022. Keeping Kapler atop the coaching pyramid will help keep the coaching staff’s messaging consistent, an important note considering the team lost last year’s hitting coach Donnie Ecker to a bench coach role with the Rangers, denied the Mets a chance to do the same with pitching coach Andrew Bailey, and saw their minor league hitting coordinator Michael Brdar leave for the rival Padres’ hitting coach role.

Several of the team’s reunions had to wait a bit longer, as qualifying offers were not offered to outgoing starters Alex Wood, Anthony DeSclafani, Johnny Cueto, or Kevin Gausman (who was ineligible after accepting a QO in 2020). President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi made it clear in October that he had interest in re-signing all four pitchers, acknowledging that he and his staff would have to offer multi-year deals to do so. Offering expensive contracts of length hasn’t been Zaidi’s M.O. since taking over the club’s front office in November 2018, as evidenced by the modest one-year deals initially used to sign Gausman, Wood, and DeSclafani. However, with a payroll sitting under $100MM after Belt’s QO decision and the team’s competitive window emphatically flung open, the Giants likely felt they could curb their conservative spending to an extent.

Within a few days of Belt’s new contract the Giants began to make good on their rotation plans, as they re-signed Wood and DeSclafani to respective two and three-year deals, at annual rates of roughly $12MM. Those represent fairly sizable commitments to two early-30’s pitchers with checkered injury histories, but if either is able to maintain their mid-3.00 FIPs moving forward then the innings they do provide should be worth it— and may even be a bargain— for the big market club.

Fast forward to December and the team struck a similar deal with free agent starter Alex Cobb, at two years and $20MM (plus a $10MM club option). The 34-year-old Cobb was hardly the paradigm of a dependable starter during his time in Baltimore, pitching to a 5.10 ERA across 210 innings from 2018-2020, but he turned a corner after being traded to the Angels. A wrist injury wiped out a good chunk of Cobb’s summer, but when he was healthy he missed bats at the highest level of his career and posted a slate of sub-4.00 run prevention metrics. What’s more, Cobb entered spring training throwing harder than ever before, which he maintained into his three regular season starts. Health will remain a concern for Cobb, but that’s true of most pitchers following this year’s goofy ramp-up period. Otherwise, this deal is quite similar to the short-term pacts for Wood, DeSclafani, and Gausman, all of which worked out swimmingly so far for the club.

The Cobb addition has upside, but it surely disappointed some fans to see his signing occur on the same week that Kevin Gausman signed a $110MM deal with the Blue Jays. Gausman, after all, had already established his upside in the Giants’ rotation and was coming off a sixth place Cy Young finish in a very competitive NL field. Though the Giants were presumptive favorites to re-sign the right-hander after two successful seasons with the club, they ultimately never made an offer to retain the All-Star. 

Being connected to top free agent talent was a rather prominent theme for the Giants, as their payroll sat under half of their previous $200MM heights entering the offseason. As the non-signing of Gausman demonstrated, however, the Zaidi-led front office likes to spread its money around to limit the impact of any single deal going south. The industry belief during the lockout was that the Giants were unlikely to go to nine figures to sign a free agent, which helps explain the lack of a Gausman reunion and several other non-signings this winter. Other high profile targets of the Giants included Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Robbie Ray, Seiya Suzuki, Trevor Story, Starling Marte, Steven Matz, and Marcus Stroman, yet they all eluded the team and netted a contract greater than the ones doled out by San Francisco this offseason.

Another free agent who priced themselves out of the Giant’s comfort zone was Kris Bryant, who landed a massive seven-year, $182MM contract with the Rockies. The size of the former MVP’s contract was a shock, but Bryant’s time in San Francisco was thought to be a layover from the moment of his trade deadline acquisition. Accordingly, his non-signing with the Giants was not a surprise, and the front office prepped fans for that outcome before the offseason was even underway. A lack of movement on the Bryant front isn’t the most exciting outcome for a team who certainly could’ve afforded him, but the Giants have veteran incumbents, like Wilmer Flores, and low-cost alternatives, like outfielder Heliot Ramos, to offer cover at every position Bryant would’ve been signed to play.

San Francisco drew a line on contracts it was willing to give out once the free agent market re-opened back in March, but that didn’t preclude them from handing out contracts altogether. Free agent Joc Pederson was signed to a one year $6MM contract— one thirtieth of Bryant’s deal— to roam the outfield corners in a platoon capacity. The team also handed out its biggest contract of the offseason to left-handed starter Carlos Rodon, a two-year $44MM accord with an opt-out clause that becomes available to Rodon if he pitches 110 innings in 2022.

The Rodon signing seems particularly obvious in hindsight, as the lefty’s effectiveness when healthy is undeniable. That “when healthy” caveat though is what drove his contract demands into the short-term sphere that the Giants like to dabble in, at an annual rate that matches departing ace Kevin Gausman’s contract no less. Should Rodon continue his run of 2021 dominance into 2022, then he’s a lock to head back into free agency after the season. As the Giants have shown with many of their recent starters, they have no problems with one-year pitcher commitments, and may even bring Rodon back if his market isn’t overly competitive.  Through his first four starts of the season, Rodon has dominated to the tune of a 1.17 ERA and 43.2 K%. 

An added complication in Rodon’s future with the team is his status as a potential qualifying offer candidate. The lefty didn’t receive a qualifying offer from the White Sox, meaning the Giants are eligible to offer one at the end of Rodon’s contract if the qualifying offer system isn’t done away with entirely by July 25 of this year. Regardless of the Giants’ ultimate interest in retaining Rodon long-term, they’ll have him atop their rotation for 2022 as they try to repeat or better the 3.25 ERA posted by last year’s starting staff.

The club’s pitching staff is high in upside, but requires depth as all rotations do. A hallmark of least season’s 107-win club was the emergence of unexpected contributors, and the Giants added some candidates who can fit that bill in their pursuit of more pitching depth. In March, right-hander Jakob Junis was brought aboard for a $1.75MM contract, with left-hander Matthew Boyd joining the team days later on a $5.2MM pact. Junis hasn’t been a particularly effective source of innings since 2018, but he comes with an extra year of team control via arbitration if the team wants it, and given the Giants’ ability to revitalize pitching careers they very well might. Boyd on the other hand has appeared on the verge of breaking out for years, though his end of year numbers always seem to lag behind his evident promise. He’ll likely be recovering from left flexor surgery until the summer, but could follow Gausman’s track and put it all together once he’s healthy and pitching for the Giants.

The Giants went thrift shopping all winter, but some moves that may pay the biggest dividends can come via the minor league contracts they handed out. Longtime Cardinals starter Carlos Martinez joined the club on an incentive-laden minor league deal, and could be a valuable depth option once he’s fully recovered from last year’s thumb ligament issues. Joe Palumbo is another potential hidden gem unearthed by the club. The 27-year-old left-hander ranked among the Rangers’ most promising farm hands through last year, but injury woes sent him to waivers where he was ultimately claimed (and later retained on a minor league deal) by the Giants. Both pitchers increase the team’s depth on minor league contracts with lighter values than departing starter Johnny Cueto’s minor league deal with the White Sox.

Outfielder and Triple-A masher Austin Dean is yet another quiet waiver claim-turned-minor league signee who can make a splash for a San Francisco team that is likely to mix and match its active roster throughout the season. A March trade with the Phillies landed the Giants Luke Williams, a speedy plays-anywhere type who can be stashed on the bench or in the upper minors of a system whose best prospects haven’t reached Double-A. The team’s ongoing habit of accruing as many near-big league options as possible can clearly bear fruit, as evidenced by the two-year $6.25MM extension awarded to slugger Darin Ruf, himself a minor league signee in 2020. 

All told, the Giants signed four legitimate starters to fill their rotation and stockpiled enough depth to cover for the departures of several star players, yet there’s still the faintest whiff of the club being too bashful given its available resources. The team certainly deserves the benefit of the doubt given last year’s tour de force performance, and should have plenty of funds earmarked for trade deadline acquisitions. Time will tell if this winter’s moves were enough to make playoff baseball the new normal in San Francisco, something that will be no small feat given the efforts of all four division rivals.

Offseason In Review: Cleveland Guardians

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The Guardians kicked off the offseason with a name change and did little else until April rolled around, when they locked up some key talent to extensions. The team will try to vie for a playoff spot on the strength of a homegrown rotation and one of the youngest rosters in the game.

Major League Signings

Options Exercised

  • Exercised $12MM club option on 3B Jose Ramirez (2022 salary is now $22MM under terms of contract extension)

Trades and Claims

Extensions

  • Signed 3B Jose Ramirez to a five-year, $115MM extension
  • Signed RHP Emmanuel Clase to a five-year, $20MM extension (deal also includes a pair of club options on Clase’s first two would-be free agent seasons in 2027 and 2028)
  • Signed CF Myles Straw to a five-year, $25MM extension (the deal, which wasn’t finalized until a few days into the 2022 season, also includes a pair of club options on Straw’s first two would-be free agent seasons in 2027 and 2028)

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

A new era of Cleveland baseball began last November in dramatic fashion, as the team officially declared itself the Cleveland Guardians on November 19. The name change ratcheted up expectations, with many fans hoping their club’s offseason would be every bit as busy as the team’s new logo. The Guardians’ offseason activity does bear some resemblance to the team’s rebrand, but not exactly in the “busy” sense. Instead, the Cleveland’s winter moves were like its rebrand in that they were thoughtfully executed, but far from a home run with much of the fanbase.

The Guardians wound up being largely inactive, but few would have predicted that based on the team’s November 19 activity. That’s not just because that date coincided with the team’s official reboot, but because of the huge roster churn that took place on the same day. For the league at large, November 19 served as the deadline to protect eligible players from the Rule 5 Draft that typically takes place during December’s Winter Meetings. To protect a player from being snatched by another team in the draft, they must be added to the Major League team’s 40-man roster. Usually this means a few highly regarded prospects and maybe an upper-level reliever or two near their debuts are squeezed onto the 40-man roster. Cleveland, however, added a whopping 11 young players to its roster.

With turnover on more than a quarter of the team’s total roster, some risks needed to be taken. The first risk came when Cleveland designated seven players for assignment to make room for their protected minor leaguers. Among those designated, several remain in the organization; most however, do not. Among the group of exiled players was outfielder Harold Ramirez, who produced at replacement level while starting the majority of the team’s games in the outfield last season. President of Baseball Operations Chris Antonetti did swing cash considerations from the Cubs in a deal for Ramirez, at least, and was likely betting on a younger player to exceed the departing outfielder’s production.

The second, bigger risk taken by the Guardians’ front office was protecting this many minor leaguers at all, considering the Rule 5 Draft was in jeopardy (along with the 2022 season itself) thanks to the league’s implementation of a lockout. Hindsight is 20-20 and it’s hard to fault a team for guarding players it believes in, but the Rule 5 Draft ultimately was scrapped this year after a new CBA was agreed upon.

This development means that Cleveland now has a huge contingent of players on the 40-man roster who didn’t need to be protected and who are devoid of Major League experience coming into 2022. These players are unlikely to be jettisoned so quickly after being protected, and that may put Cleveland in a bind when they need to make a roster move during the season. One could certainly argue this stiff roster construction is why veteran catcher Sandy León, who signed a minor league contract with the team on November 22 (and would eventually need a 40-man roster spot) didn’t make the Opening Day roster. 

Slightly alleviating the tight roster situation is the fact that three of the team’s protected youngsters— Steven Kwan, Bryan Lavastida, and Konnor Pilkington— proved advanced enough to make the Major League team. As some of the trio get demoted, as two members already have, Cleveland’s roster situation will further stiffen. None of this trio figured to shoulder a full workload on the team however (Kwan is penciled in for a platoon role, Lavastida is the backup catcher, and Pilkington is a long reliever/ depth starter), which should minimize the team’s need to find outside help to supplant them. 

This roster turnover was one of the main storylines for Cleveland before the lockout began in December simply because there weren’t many other Guardians-themed storylines to follow before then. Transactionally, most of the team’s early offseason moves pertained to non-player personnel, as the club saw Assistant GM Carter Hawkins depart for the Cubs, assistant pitching coach Ruben Niebla depart for the Padres, and Chris Valaika of the Cubs replace Ty Van Burkleo as the team’s primary hitting coach. That last hiring is perhaps the most interesting personnel change to follow throughout the 2022 season, as the Van Burkleo-tutored team of 2021 was a bottom-half unit in the eyes of most offensive metrics. The veteran hitting coach helped coax numerous offensive breakouts during his nine-year tenure as Cleveland’s hitting coach, but that responsibility will now shift to the 36-year-old Valaika.

Beyond those moves, there were some minor league deals doled out in Cleveland, including accords for the aforementioned Sandy León and ex-Phillies reliever Enyel De Los Santos. Additionally, some of the players jettisoned off the roster as Rule 5 protection collateral were scooped off of waivers by other teams. A minor trade with the Rays for right-handed pitcher Tobias Myers, plus a deal with Milwaukee that would ultimately net the team versatile catching prospect David Fry, served as the team’s only action on the trade market. In house, the team also made swift decisions to decline catcher Roberto Perez’s club option and pick up the $12MM club option on their best player, Jose Ramirez. 

Picking up the club option on Ramirez was largely a formality, and very easily could’ve acted as a precursor to an offseason trade of the third baseman. Both the Blue Jays and Padres were teams known to have been aggressive in acquiring the switch-hitting MVP candidate, who remained under team control through 2023 via another affordable club option. Instead, the team doubled-down on their commitment to Ramirez and signed him to a five-year extension on the eve of Opening Day. The terms of the extension exercise and rework the club option salaries a bit, and amount to Ramirez being owed $141MM over the next seven seasons. 

Despite this being the first nine-figure deal to ever hit Cleveland’s books, the extension does appear to be something of a bargain for the club. Ramirez will make no more than $25MM in any year of his deal, and in the first two of his would-have-been free agent years will make less than $20MM. The three time All-Star is signed through his age-35 season and of course may succumb to injury or decline throughout the deal’s tenure. If he keeps up anything close to his 162-game pace of 5.8 bWAR, however, Cleveland should continue to reap surplus value from their star player.

Keeping Ramirez in the fold through 2028 is a huge boon to a Guardians lineup that has plenty of options but little certainty in the other eight spots. Looking at Ramirez’s companions around the infield is likely to yield some puzzled expressions from fans, as none of these players come anywhere close to the third baseman in terms recognizability or production. That said, the team did spend in March to bolster one position, catcher, with veteran talent via free agency. 

The rub, though, is that the catcher was 31-year-old veteran Luke Maile, who signed for just under $1MM to back up defensively-gifted starting catcher Austin Hedges. As a fellow right-handed hitter, Maile won’t make for an ideal platoon-mate with the offensively-limited Hedges. Offense is hardly Maile’s calling card either, as his career .568 OPS is a notch beneath Hedges’ career .590 OPS mark. Both players figure to at least form a strong defensive unit behind the plate, but Maile will need to put a hamstring strain incurred during spring training behind him for the tandem to last on the team’s active roster.

Elsewhere on the diamond, no infield position appeared more up for grabs heading into the 2022 season than first base. Former third-round pick Bobby Bradley manned the position 68 times last season and showed prodigious pop (16 home runs in 74 total games), but struck out at an untenable 35.5% clip and struggled against lefties.  Just yesterday, Bradley was designated for assignment. Josh Naylor remained on hand as another left-handed option, but was recovering from a rough 2021 ankle injury and entered the offseason as perhaps the team’s top choice in right field. Owen Miller and Yu Chang are right-handed hitting complements to both Naylor and Bradley, but neither showed much in 200 plus plate appearances last season and may ultimately settle in as utility infielders.  Miller is doing the most he can, as he’s off to a scalding start through 63 plate appearances.

It’s not a group without promise, but Cleveland’s passivity with regard to first base may loom largest if this trio fails to build on their 2021 performances. That’s because the trade market had no shortage of first base alternatives, headlined by new Brave Matt Olson, for who Cleveland was reportedly “in the mix.” Additionally, Mets corner infielder J.D. Davis was thought to be on the trading block after they bolstered their defense this offseason. Meanwhile, Yankee-turned-Padre Luke Voit was traded for a modest return after the team re-signed Anthony Rizzo. Davis and Voit both sport a 128 OPS+ over the past three seasons and come with three more seasons of control, but there was no indication Cleveland targeted either player.

While a lack of movement at first base may seem dubious, the same can’t be said for the middle infield, where Amed Rosario and Andrés Giménez currently head the team’s depth chart. Neither player lit the world on fire with their 2021 performances, but both players have shown above average skills at the MLB level and possessed a fair bit of hype when they were in the Mets’ system. Their primary backups, Chang and Ernie Clement, don’t carry strong offensive track records, but they, along with Miller, should offer solid enough depth if Rosario begins to see more work in left field or either starter needs to sit for an extended stretch. Even if the team lacks faith in the collection of middle infield talent at the major league level, they have a wealth of highly regarded infielders in the upper minors. Gabriel Arias, Tyler Freeman, and Brayan Rocchio each frequent numerous top prospect lists and should continue along their path to Cleveland’s infield of the future if they aren’t traded first to patch holes elsewhere.

Like first base, the outfield group is short on stability, but apparently not enough to deter Cleveland’s front office from rolling with it. Kwan and Naylor are set to see the bulk of work in the outfield corners, with Rosario and Oscar Mercado picking up reps along the way. Franmil Reyes too may see some outfield starts, even if he’s best limited to DH duty. The main story in the incumbent outfield group though is the team’s early April extension of center fielder Myles Straw. The speedy outfielder’s five-year, $25MM extension contains two club options that may keep him on Progressive Field’s grass through 2028. The 27-year-old Straw, owner of nine professional career home runs, isn’t likely to add much offense to an outfield that has a questionable amount of it, but he should provide above-average base running and glovework, at worst, for the duration of his new contract.

Extension aside, the lack of activity on the outfield front is glaring. It wasn’t for a total lack of trying though, as the team had reportedly been looking to trade some of its prospects for an established outfielder since the middle of last season. One trade target of the team’s was left fielder Jesse Winker, who was ultimately dealt to the Mariners. Cleveland’s inability to absorb third baseman Eugenio Suarez’s contract, as the Mariners did, undoubtedly played a role in trade discussions falling through.

Free agency remained a means for outfield help, but to that end the team is only known to have expressed interest in Joc Pederson, who later signed with the Giants. Evidently Pederson and other free agent outfielders didn’t represent enough of a value play over Kwan, Naylor, or interesting prospects like George Valera to entice the team to splurge. General manager Mike Chernoff spoke in March about his desire to create opportunities for younger players as opposed to signing a veteran name just to provide some perceived stability. That philosophy is certainly easier on the team’s bottom line, but it does hold some merit considering the team signed the typically-steady Eddie Rosario during the previous winter only to watch him produce at a career-worst rate for the team. 

Eschewing free agency upgrades in favor of young in-house talent was a similar theme for the team’s pitching staff as well. The club’s entire stable of pitchers features just two veterans over the age of 30, one of them being infielder-turned-flamethrower Anthony Gose. The other veteran is 34-year-old right-hander Bryan Shaw, who returned to the club on a $3MM deal after he parlayed a 2021 minor league deal with the team into a bounce-back campaign. 

Cleveland also acquired right-handed pitcher Anthony Castro in a cash-positive deal with the Blue Jays. Like their acquisition of Tobias Myers, this trade for a 20-something pitcher is more of a depth move than a genuine shake-up to the team’s pitching staff. A lack of veteran depth may affect the team as the season wears on, but the club’s current staff, including top depth options Eli Morgan and top prospect Daniel Espino, offer enough upside that outside expenditures may be viewed as luxury for a tight purse string club like the Guardians.

The only matter of business to pursue on the pitching staff, it seemed, was to lock in the talent that already resided on it. Closer Emmanuel Clase signed a five-year $20MM deal with two club options to anchor the team’s bullpen through 2028, potentially. Long-term deals with relievers are rife with risk given the volatility of the position, but the commitment has the potential to be a shrewd signing given the right-hander was one of the best pitchers on the planet after returning from a 2020 suspension last season. Staff ace Shane Bieber hinted back in 2021 that extension talks might take place during the 2022 offseason, but that was prior to a shoulder injury that likely dimmed his bargaining power. Bieber, along with the team’s other starting pitchers, all remain controllable through at least 2024, affording the club some leeway to pursue more extensions during a future offseason.

Maintaining a lean club payroll was certainly a factor in the Guardians’ very limited spending this offseason. Currently, Cot’s Contracts estimates the team’s payroll at $68MM, about half of their franchise record $135MM payroll in 2018. It’s not clear why the team’s spending has dropped so precipitously in recent years, a trend that started before the COVID-19 pandemic affected ticket revenues across the league. Moreover, it’s not apparent how quickly the club plans to expand payroll again, if at all. It’s worth noting that the team only just recently snapped an eight-year streak of above .500 ball, a span that mostly featured yearly payrolls beneath the $100MM threshold. With increased odds to make the expanded playoffs and a potential ownership transition to minority owner David Blitzer on the horizon, it’s possible the Paul Dolan-owned club feels less pressure to spend now than ever.

Minimal spending won’t do the new-look Guardians many favors competing with division rivals that were more than happy to spend this offseason. Zigging when others zag has proven to be wise on occasion, and it’s possible that Cleveland will have more mid-season capital to spend than their division mates. That said, it’s far from a lock that Cleveland’s team as constituted will be in the thick of a pennant race come July. With better health, some young players taking a step forward, and a few lucky breaks anything is possible. But this is a team that struggled to win games outside its division last season en route to a 80-82 record, and the matchups within the division only figure to be more difficult this year. 

Big Hype Prospects: 4/29/22

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Welcome to Big Hype Prospects. Every Friday, we’ll use this space to look at a select few top prospects. Some will already be in the Majors. Others will be making their way towards a promotion. And, occasionally, we’ll catch a guy at just the right time for their debut. Speaking of which, we have one of those below.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Kyle Bradish, 25, SP, BAL (AAA)

15 IP, 1.20 ERA, 10.20 K/9, 1.80 BB/9

Bradish started tonight’s game against the Boston Red Sox. The right-hander, originally acquired in the Dylan Bundy trade, features a four-pitch repertoire headlined by a 95-mph fastball. Like many pitchers of this era, he works up in the zone with his heater. Multiple scouting reports mention he’s not good at locating the pitch lower in the zone. That’s fine – a high fastball pairs well with most breaking balls. Bradish throws two – a vertically-oriented curveball and a sweeping slider. Like many pitching prospects, his changeup rates as a definite fourth-best offering. Beyond his stuff, a key aspect of his success is a funky delivery (rear view and front view). Scouts note Bradish tends to work deep counts. We should expect relatively short starts on average.

Something to monitor is his ability to generate called and swinging strikes. While the top-level results from his three minor league starts were golden, the ways he succeeded varied. He didn’t draw many whiffs in the first two starts. His third appearance included plenty of misses, but he also allowed three runs. Bradish should be considered to have a wide range of plausible outcomes.

Oneil Cruz, 23, SS, PIT (AAA)

74 PA, 1 HR, 6 SB, /197/.284/.318

When Tim Dierkes suggested I write this column last weekend, he not-so-subtly used Cruz as an example. His brief 2021 debut included a ball hit 118.2-mph. Only six players produced a harder-hit baseball – Giancarlo Stanton, Manny Machado, Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Franchy Cordero, and Pete Alonso. Cruz needed just five batted balls to join them. His size and batted ball profile are reminiscent of Judge – if the Yankees slugger could play a passable shortstop and steal bases too!

The Pirates broke our hearts by optioning Cruz to Triple-A so he could work on his “outfield defense.” Notably, he has played only two games in left field. The rest of his starts have come at shortstop. Which makes sense – the Pirates don’t really have a notable shortstop, and Cruz is a perfectly acceptable defender.

While the defense excuse fell flat, it does appear Cruz can benefit from more seasoning. Aside from his six steals, he’s struggling offensively. His 31.1 percent strikeout rate is bloated when compared to a 12.1 percent swinging strike rate. Often, this indicates some type of passivity. I suspect he’s taking too many hittable early-count pitches. His batted ball data is also strange. I don’t have access to granular information on minor league batted balls, but we can see he’s hit 51.2 percent of his contact to the opposite field. Most of the rest is pull side with very few balls hit up the middle. Such extremes are virtually never observed in successful Major Leaguers. That’s not to say Cruz is doomed. If anything, his batted ball outcomes will probably regress toward normality. It’s also worth noting he’s a physical unicorn. Perhaps he’ll also statistically thrive in a truly unique way.

For now, Cruz is a hot streak away from a promotion. He’s shown a pulse over the last six days (.231/.286/.385).

Adley Rutschman, 24, C, BAL (A+)

7 PA, .167./.286/.333

Rutschman quietly began a rehab assignment earlier this week. The FanGraphs prospect crew gave him a rare 70-FV grade, essentially stating they believe he’s already one of the best players in the sport. He’s a switch-hitter with above average discipline and contact skills. He’s also lauded for his defensive chops behind the plate. If his game has weaknesses, it’s merely-good power and below average speed. Based on a batted ball profile oriented to fly ball contact, he should still push 20 or more home runs annually in a full season.

The Orioles have two potential paths to follow. It’s expected that, once promoted, Rutschman will be in the Majors for good. The club could try to hold off until sometime in July, thereby dodging Super Two status. A likelier outcome, based on comments made by GM Mike Elias, is a rapid climb from High- to Triple-A followed by a quick promotion to the Majors. Prior to injury, the Orioles signaled willingness to promote him on Opening Day. The present tandem of Robinson Chirinos and Anthony Bemboom has 10 hits in 71 plate appearances and lacks Rutschman’s defensive capacity.

Triston Casas, 22, 1B, BOS (AAA)

88 PA, 4 HR, .225/.354/.437

The 8-12 Red Sox have a bit of a conundrum. Casas, their top prospect, is off to a respectable start at Triple-A. Meanwhile, Bobby Dalbec has struggled mightily in the Majors. Dalbec is a hot-and-cold hitter who slumped through the entire first half of 2021 before emerging as one of the top sluggers in the second half. His power-driven approach is volatile and could possibly benefit from a jump-start in Triple-A.

Casas features elite plate discipline. Scouts drool over his breaking ball recognition. Oddly, he’s running a 19.4 percent swinging strike rate this season, a sign his much-ballyhooed pitch-recognition isn’t in top form at the moment. Even so, Casas could be on the shortlist for promotion. His approach offers a higher floor than that of Dalbec, which could help the team to win more ballgames in the short term.

Corbin Carroll, 21, OF, ARI (AA)

79 PA, 4 HR, 5 SB, .344/.456/.641

In the Majors, we usually point to elevated BABIPs as a reason why a hitter will probably regress. For a minor leaguer, it just as often signals when they’re done with a level. Thus, Carroll’s .429 BABIP leads me to believe he’s ready for a promotion. Although he’s only the 19th-ranked prospect by MLB Pipeline – one spot below teammate Alek Thomas – scouts I’ve spoken with believe he may be the number one prospect in baseball once Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodriguez, Spencer Torkelson, and Rutschman are no longer qualified. The skill set is even more exciting for fantasy baseball enthusiasts. Carroll, a lefty, combines discipline and contact skills already believed to be above the Major League average with elite speed and gap power. He’s credited with a line-to-line approach, although he can also generate potent, pulled contact.

The present trajectory is of a high-average and OBP hitter with potential for 15-25 home runs and over 25 stolen bases. Barring injury or an unforeseen setback at Triple-A, we should see him later this season.

Five More

Alek Thomas (22): While Carroll may be the spicier prospect, Thomas is already on the cusp of promotion to the Majors. He’s hitting .263/.329/.500 in 85 Triple-A plate appearances.

Nolan Gorman (22): Is anyone hotter than Gorman? He’s already bashed 10 home runs in 77 plate appearances. A 32.5 percent strikeout rate partly backed by a 14.2 percent swinging strike rate is the only blemish to his .343/.390/.800 triple-slash. A suspension of Nolan Arenado could be an excuse for a brief trial run.

Grayson Rodriguez (22): The top pitching prospect in the minors has nothing left to prove in Triple-A. Baltimore is carefully managing his workload. He’s yet to face 20 batters in a game. He has a 2.45 ERA with 13.75 K/9 and 1.47 BB/9.

Bobby Witt Jr. (21): Even Mike Trout wasn’t great in his debut. Witt Jr. has shown a pulse over his last seven games, hitting .310/.333/.379 with three steals in four attempts. The power will play sooner or later.

C.J. Abrams (21): Abrams skipped Triple-A and it shows. Once Luke Voit and/or Wil Myers are healthy, Abrams could be sent to the farm to get back on track.

Offseason In Review: Miami Marlins

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After underachieving in 2021, Kim Ng’s Marlins entered the offseason looking to bolster a moribund offense to complement perhaps the finest collection of young pitching talent in the game. And while the Fish brought in some outfield pop that could push them into contention for a spot in the expanded playoffs, they’re also contending with the loss of their biggest name — albeit not one who would have contributed on the field.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • Sandy Alcantara, RHP: Five years, $56MM (includes $21MM club option for 2027 season with $2MM buyout)
  • Miguel Rojas, SS: Two years, $10MM
  • Richard Bleier, LHP: Two years, $6MM (includes $3.75MM club option for 2024 season with $250K buyout)

Notable Losses

Coming off a somewhat disappointing 2021, Marlins GM Kim Ng set out to reshape a lineup that scored the second fewest runs in the majors. She did much of her business ahead of the lockout, signing former Brewers outfielder Avisaíl García to a four-year, $53MM deal and acquiring catcher Jacob Stallings from the Pirates (for outfielder Connor Scott and righties Zach Thompson and Kyle Nicolas) and versatile infielder Joey Wendle from the Rays (for outfielder Kameron Misner).

After the lockout was lifted, the Marlins were linked to a number of players via both free agency (Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Eddie Rosario, Michael Conforto) and trade (Ketel Marte, Bryan Reynolds) they didn’t ultimately land. Ng acknowledged at multiple points that  her sights were set on acquiring a center fielder, and either Marte or Reynolds would have been a significant upgrade. The cost, however, proved to be prohibitive, as both players stayed put (Marte on a new five-year extension in Arizona). The free agent cupboard, meanwhile, was largely bare. Ultimately, what could be the Marlins’ most — or, depending which version of the mercurial slugger shows up in Miami this year, least — impactful move came when they beat out the Braves, Rockies, and Padres to sign 2021 World Series MVP Jorge Soler to a three-year, $36MM deal.

As fans of both the Cubs and Royals can attest, the powerful Soler has in essence been two different hitters throughout his career, and 2021 was no exception. Before a deadline trade to the Braves, the 30-year-old outfielder struggled to a .192/.288/.370 batting line across 36o plate appearances with the Royals but slugged his way to a robust .269/.358/.524 in 242 trips to the plate with Atlanta. Oddly, his hard-hit rate (the percent of balls in play with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher) actually dropped after the trade (from 51.2% to 41.2%). This could suggest a fair bit of randomness at play in both directions, but it could also be a product of a change in approach; Soler’s strikeout rate dropped from 26.9% (also his career average) with the Royals to 18.6% with the Braves, his walk rate ticked up from 10.6% to 12%, and his willingness to go to the opposite field increased dramatically (9.8% of his batted balls went to right with the Royals, 18.3% with the Braves).

Regardless of which Soler the Marlins get, though, the Marlins’ failure to land a legitimate center fielder could yield one of the leakiest outfield defenses in the game — particularly within the relatively capacious confines of Miami’s LoanDepot Park. While Jesús Sánchez (who’s covered the position in the early weeks of 2022) has proven himself capable in a corner, he’s hardly a natural fit in center. García (who was noted as a center field option when he was signed) has been similarly solid in right, but he’s been a clear liability in limited action in center across his ten previous big-league seasons. Between the lack of a league-average option in center and a Garrett Cooper/Jesús Aguilar timeshare at first base/DH that forces Soler into a corner, the Marlins’ staff may well look to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible.

Defensive limitations aside, the offense should score more runs in 2022, if only by default. A combination of trades (Starling Marte, Adam Duvall, and Corey Dickerson), injuries (Marte, Cooper, Aguilar, Brian Anderson, Miguel Rojas, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. all missed significant time), and ineffectiveness plagued the team throughout the year. Both a reversion to the mean in missed time via injury and Ng’s various upgrades should push the Marlins closer to the middle of the offensive pack.

Indeed, while the addition of Wendle — whose .265/.319/.422 line in 2021 neatly matches his career numbers — to take at-bats covered last year largely by Isan Díaz (.193/.294/.282 in 2021), Joe Panik (.172/.241/.221), and Jon Berti (.210/.311/.313) represents a clear upgrade, it also leads to something of a glut in the Miami infield. An oversupply of quality players is hardly a problem worth bemoaning, of course, but Wendle’s arrival could signal a diminution in Anderson’s role. The third baseman struggled to .249/.337/.378 line in an injury-riddled 2021, but he was an above-average hitter from 2018 to 2020 (posting a combined 112 OPS+ over that period) and could well wind up on the trading block.

Several of Ng’s other additions also provide relatively clear offensive upgrades. Stallings, for instance, is primarily known for his glove (he finished first among catchers in the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards), but the career-representative .246/.335/.369 triple-slash he posted with the Pirates in 2021 substantially outpaced Jorge Alfaro’s .244/.283/.342 line even before accounting for the defensive gap. Similarly, the combination of Soler and García (.262/.330/.490 in 2021, a slight boost in slugging relative to his career numbers) in place of Magneuris Sierra (.230/.281/.268 in 2021) and Lewis Brinson (.226/.263/.376) robs the lineup of some speed and the outfield of some range but adds a significant power threat to a batting order that sorely needs it. And as difficult as the team’s 2021 struggles surely were for the Miami faithful to endure, the offseason demotion of Díaz and departures of Brinson and Monte Harrison (all acquired in the 2018 Christian Yelich deal) — as well as Sierra (the Marcell Ozuna deal in the same offseason) and Alfaro (the 2019 J.T. Realmuto trade) — effectively closes the book on the position-player side of the most recent fire-sale for a fanbase far too used to them.

The pitching side of the equation is, of course, an entirely different story, and the primary source of optimism in south Florida. It’s the strength of Miami’s staff — specifically its rotation — that makes the Marlins something of a dark-horse contender in 2022, and a potential powerhouse in the years to come. Ng added a few pieces to the bullpen via trade, including Cole Sulser and long-time minor-league journeyman Louis Head, but stood pat in rotation. It’s easy to understand why: the Marlins possess the sort of stable of young arms capable of anchoring a contender for the better part of a decade.

In an effort to ensure the leader of that potentially formidable bunch stays in Miami for the foreseeable future, Ng gave budding ace Sandy Alcantara — who quietly posted a 3.19 ERA (3.42 FIP) while logging 205 2/3 innings in 2021 — a five-year, $56MM extension that keeps him under club control through the 2027 season. He’ll head a group that also includes 2021 All-Star and Rookie of the Year runner-up Trevor Rogers (who’s struggled so far in 2022 but posted a 2.64 ERA and 2.55 FIP across 133 innings in 2021), Pablo Lopez (who threw 102 2/3 innings of 3.07 ERA/3.29 FIP ball last year before a rotator cuff strain ended his year prematurely), and Jesús Luzardo (who struggled to a 6.61 ERA across 95 1/3 innings between Oakland and Miami last year but has an electric left arm and is off to a promising start to 2022). Former Rule 5 pick Elieser Hernandez opens the season in the fifth slot, but he’ll face pressure from both consensus top-100 prospect Max Meyer and Sixto Sánchez, the headliner in the Realmuto deal who briefly took the league by storm in 2020 but has since been out of action with a shoulder injury (which ultimately required surgery).

As impactful as the acquisition and departure of players on either side of the lockout is likely to be on the Marlins’ near-term future, perhaps the most significant change came while it was ongoing. In a surprise announcement reportedly tied to a clash with majority owner Bruce Sherman, minority owner and club CEO Derek Jeter announced in late February that he had cut ties with the organization. The precise reasons for Jeter’s departure are, of course, somewhat opaque, but reporting from the Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson suggests that Mr. November expected the famously attendance-starved franchise to make a more substantial post-lockout investment in the roster than Sherman was prepared to authorize. (Interestingly, Jeter’s desire to sign Castellanos, who would have represented a clear offensive upgrade but hardly would have remedied the defensive issues in the Miami outfield, is reputed to be among the factors exacerbating the rift between Sherman and his erstwhile partner.)

Regardless of the reasons for Jeter’s unceremonious exit, his absence robs a franchise in search of an identity of the most recognizable face of his generation in baseball history. It does not, however, rob it of its enviable rotation depth, deep farm system, or significantly improved lineup. Whether Ng’s upgrades to the Miami offense and bullpen will be enough to make the them contenders in 2022 — and, indeed, what Jeter’s departure means for the likelihood of keeping the core of the team together for longer than previous talented Marlins squads — remains to be seen.

Offseason In Review: Seattle Mariners

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The Mariners signed the reigning AL Cy Young winner and acquired a pair of 2021 All-Stars via trade. That it still felt like a bit of an underwhelming offseason speaks to the manner in which expectations have increased for the AL West up-and-comers.

Major League Contracts

2022 spending: $23MM
Total spending: $117MM

Trades and Claims

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Buoyed by an exciting young core and a surprisingly strong bullpen, the 2021 Mariners were in contention until the very last weekend of the season. After an accelerated rebuilding effort that left the club with one of the game’s top-ranked farm systems — the best system, according to some outlets — last year’s 90-win showing cemented the Mariners’ status as a win-now club.

With that shift to a win-now mindset came heightened offseason expectations. The Mariners entered the winter known to be looking for a right-handed bat, ideally an infielder, and reinforcements for a rotation that is awaiting the arrival of several top prospects but had at least one, if not two short-term vacancies.

First and foremost, however, the Mariners had a decision to make on Kyle Seager, the longtime heart and soul of the franchise. After an emotional sendoff at season’s end and some controversy surrounding the communication from the team — or lack thereof — regarding his future, Seager’s $20MM club option was declined. He was paid a $3MM buyout and ventured out into the free-agent market on the heels of a 30-homer season. But rather than search for a new team and a fresh start, Seager instead somewhat surprisingly called it a career at just 34 of age.

The decision to decline Seager’s option was seen as something of a foregone conclusion, but it still stung for Mariners fans and the clubhouse. Seager had been one of two contracts of note on the books, however, and in the end, the team’s most costly players both departed. The other, Yusei Kikuchi, appeared as though he might stick around for one more season after the Mariners declined a quartet of club options on him, triggering a $13MM player option for the 2022 season. Instead, Kikuchi declined the option and eventually cashed in on a three-year deal with a Blue Jays team that appeared unfazed by his struggles down the stretch in 2021.

With Seager and Kikuchi off the books, there was seemingly no limit to what the Mariners could do in the offseason. Between the departure of that pair and the rebuilding effort that had cleared out the long-term payroll, the stage appeared set for the Mariners to spend at the top of the free-agent market and/or take on ample salary in a trade.

That led to natural speculation about the historic crop of free-agent shortstops, but president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto made clear early in the winter the organization had communicated to incumbent J.P. Crawford they were committed to him at the position. Rather than move Crawford from his position, Dipoto voiced interest in versatile free agents— “adaptable,” as he put it — and even took the unorthodox step of name-checking the likes of Javier Baez and Marcus Semien when making those comments. Seattle was also quickly connected to Kris Bryant, who has increasingly bounced around the diamond in recent years, and Trevor Story, whom they coveted as a potential second baseman.

Semien and Baez, however, came off the board early, with Semien inking a surprising seven-year deal to join the division-rival Rangers and Baez landing six years and $140MM (plus an opt-out) in Detroit. Seattle, meanwhile, indeed landed some adaptability and kept its options open while making its first acquisition of the year. Adam Frazier, acquired in a trade that sent reliever Ray Kerr and 2021 twelfth-round pick Corey Rosier to San Diego, is a viable option at either second base or in left field.

Long a steady producer at the plate, Frazier hit at career-best levels with the Pirates before being traded to the Padres and regressing to well below his career norms. He was an odd fit for a Padres team that didn’t have a need clear at second base or in left field in the first place, and the .267/.327/.335 batting line he posted in 57 games with the Friars proved underwhelming. The Padres, needing to jettison payroll, traded Frazier for a good bit less than they’d surrendered to acquire him — and the Mariners stood to benefit.

Even including last year’s rough 211 plate appearances in San Diego, Frazier carries a .281/.343/.416 batting line in 1829 plate appearances from 2018-21. For a Mariners club that posted the fourth-highest team strikeout percentage in baseball last year (24.8%), adding a contact-oriented bat like Frazier, who’s fanned in only 12.9% of his career plate appearances, was a sensible move. He’ll help to remedy some of the swing-and-miss issues that so often plagued Seattle in 2021. He’s only controlled through the 2022 season, but Frazier should give the M’s a solid bat to go along with excellent defense at second base.

The Frazier acquisition came just five days before Major League Baseball locked out the players and halted transactions for 99 days, but Dipoto and his staff still had time for one notable acquisition — a signing that proved to be the team’s largest strike of the offseason. Just 48 hours before commissioner Rob Manfred announced the lockout, the Mariners announced they’d ponied up on a five-year, $115MM contract bringing reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to Seattle. The deal, which allows Ray to opt out after the third season, is the largest contract the organization has ever given to a free-agent pitcher.

It marked the culmination of an astonishing turnaround for Ray, who looked like a potential $100MM arm heading into the 2020 campaign before a lost season pushed him to take a one-year pillow contract. That proved to be perhaps the best $8MM the Blue Jays ever spent, as Ray not only rebounded to previous levels but broke out with far and away the lowest walk rate of his career. Ray paired that newfound command with his second-best strikeout rate — a 32.1% mark that was backed by career-high swinging-strike and chase rates (15.5% and 34.1%, respectively).

The Mariners are clearly sold on Ray’s transformation, and while they can’t love the slight dip in fastball velocity and major drop in strikeout rate he’s displayed through his first four starts of the season, Ray has tossed a quality start on three occasions already. That he’s now in a pitcher-friendly home park for the first time in his career bodes well for the lefty; Ray yielded an average of 1.54 homers per nine frames last year even during a Cy Young-winning season, but his new surroundings in the Pacific Northwest could help him to keep the ball in the yard with greater frequency.

Even with time running out before the lockout, the ever-active Dipoto still felt like a threat to make one more splash after signing Ray. The Mariners indeed took a big swing, reportedly making an offer to Story before transactions were frozen. (Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported last week that Seattle had offered in the realm of $125MM). Story, however, was still eyeing a concrete opportunity to remain at shortstop at that point. He eventually took a six-year deal with the Red Sox, agreeing to play second base for the 2022 season. Incumbent shortstop Xander Bogaerts has an opt-out clause at the end of this season, setting the stage for Story to slide over to shortstop in 2023 if (or when) Bogaerts opts out. Story, along with fellow rumored Mariners targets like Baez (Tigers), Semien (Rangers) and Kris Bryant (Rockies) eventually landed a contract of six years or more in length with another team.

Even with the swing-and-a-miss on Story, the Mariners weren’t quite done making pre-lockout deals. Just 13 hours before the lockout, the team announced a four-year, $7.5MM contract extension with flamethrowing reliever Andres Munoz. It was a surprising deal and a risk-averse one by Munoz, who’ll be surrendering three free-agent years. However, for a then-22-year-old reliever — he turned 23 in January — who’d only just recovered from Tommy John surgery and was still a full year from reaching arbitration, it’s understandable if the allure of a life-changing guarantee was too hard to pass up. Munoz can still become a free agent heading into his age-30 season, even if all three options are exercised, but it’s hard not to love the deal for the Mariners.

Munoz, acquired alongside Ty France, Taylor Trammell and Luis Torrens in the deal that sent Austin Nola and Austin Adams to San Diego, is averaging 100.7 mph on his heater so far in 2022 and has fanned 14 of the 27 batters he’s faced. He’s struggled with command at times, but he has some of the best raw stuff of any reliever in the American League. In terms of total guarantee, the Mariners are only risking about what it’d have cost them to sign a fifth starter (e.g. Jordan Lyles), so the upside on this contract is outstanding.

About 2400 hours later, after an excruciating 99 days of strategic leaks, finger pointing and generally unbecoming quarrelling between MLB and the MLBPA, the transaction freeze was lifted. Dipoto greeted a baseball fan base that was ravenous for some Hot Stove activity with what’ll go down as one of his all-time lines, saying in a March 11 radio appearance: “I woke up this morning ready to transact.”

He might’ve had to wait three days, but transact Dipoto did. On March 14, the Mariners landed outfielder Jesse Winker in a trade with the Reds, doing so for a prospect package that was a bit lighter than most would’ve expected because they agreed to take on the entirety of Eugenio Suarez’s remaining three years and $35MM. The trade cost the M’s pitching prospect Brandon Williamson, outfielder Jake Fraley, righty Justin Dunn and a PTBNL — later announced as righty Connor Phillips, their second-round pick from the 2020 draft.

In Winker, the Mariners acquired a 2021 All-Star who has emerged as one of the best hitters in baseball against right-handed pitching. Winker will draw his walks against lefties but is generally punchless against same-handed opponents. When holding the platoon advantage from 2020-21, however, Winker boasted a Herculean 169 wRC+ that trailed only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper. During that 2020-21 breakout, Winker hit .321/.417/.619 against righties and .292/.392/.552 overall. He’s controlled through 2023, and even though he’s had a slow start in 2022, Winker has the ninth-largest gap in Statcast’s expected weighted on-base average (.405) and his actual wOBA (.265). He’s upped his walk rate, cut back on his strikeouts and seems due to begin producing sooner than later.

Taking on Suarez surely wasn’t what Mariners fans had in mind amid the early talks of adding a big bat — not after he combined to hit just .199/.293/.440 from 2020-21. Suarez led the NL with 49 homers in 2019, but the ensuing rise in strikeouts looked to have tanked his overall offensive output. He somewhat quietly slashed a much better .238/.335/.524 in 215 post-All-Star-break plate appearances last year, though, and at least early on, he’s been a boon to the Seattle lineup (.271/.377/.525). If Suarez indeed rounds back into form — and remember he’s only 30 — what already looked like a solid get for the Mariners will be all the more strong.

Curiously, however, that trade marked the end of Seattle’s major dealings. Righty Sergio Romo was brought in on a one-year, $2MM contract — but only after fellow right-hander Casey Sadler underwent season-ending shoulder surgery. Dipoto & Co. brought in a slate of recognizable veterans on minor league deals, but none of Billy Hamilton, Steven Souza Jr., Ryan Buchter or Tommy Milone are going to grab too many headlines at this stage in their careers. It was a nice series of depth adds, but as far as impact moves, there’s a sizable gap between Dipoto name-dropping Baez/Semien and eating Suarez’s contract in a salary dump designed to get Winker into the lineup.

Then again, perhaps the front office doesn’t mind if onlookers felt the offseason fell shy of expectations. As previously noted, Suarez is mashing to begin the season, and Ty France has been one of the game’s best hitters. The Mariners’ offense has been one of MLB’s most-productive through nearly three weeks, and that doesn’t even include much in the way of help from top prospects Julio Rodriguez and Jarred Kelenic. If one or both of them gets going at the plate, the lineup could be deadly even without one of those marquee free agents.

Seattle’s final move of note might’ve come after Opening Day, but the groundwork for the deal surely was laid during Spring Training. Doubling down on the notion that Crawford is the Mariners’ shortstop of both the present and the future, the team signed the 27-year-old to a five-year, $51MM contract. That figure includes Crawford’s preexisting 2022 salary but tacks on an additional four years and more than $46MM in guaranteed money. Whether he’s thriving based on that peace of mind or would’ve taken his game to new heights regardless can be debated, but Crawford has posted a mammoth .356/.466/.559 slash with a career-best 13.7% walk rate and just a 5.5% strikeout rate so far. He’ll surely regress to some extent, but the arrow on the former first-round pick and top prospect’s bat has been pointing up for the past couple seasons.

Crawford joins France, Rodriguez, Kelenic, Marco Gonzales, budding rotation star Logan Gilbert, impressive rookie Matt Brash, former Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis and a series of yet-to-debut prospects (George Kirby, Noelvi Marte, Emerson Hancock) as holdovers in a core that’ll now be bolstered by veteran additions of Ray, Winker, Frazier and Suarez. It may not have been the cannonball into the deep-end of the free-agent pool for which Mariners fans had pined, but the future in Seattle is unequivocally bright, and the team still has both a deep farm system and considerable payroll capacity to make deadline acquisitions as needed. The end of a 20-year playoff drought finally looks to be in sight.

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