MLBTR Originals

MLBTR has gone around the diamond with a position-by-position look at this winter’s free agent class. With all the hitters and the starting pitchers now covered, it’s time for a look at the relievers. Just about every team will be looking to make an investment in improving its bullpen, and they will have a choice of all options, from veteran journeymen to a lights-out closer who could get a record-setting contract.

The Cream of the Crop

• Edwin Díaz (29 years old next season)

Díaz has had some ups and downs in his career but he reached incredible heights in 2022. He pitched 62 innings with a tiny ERA of 1.31. He did that by striking out 118 batters, an incredible rate of 50.2%. He also kept his walks at a reasonable 7.7% and got grounders on 46.9% of balls in play. He even added 2 2/3 innings of scoreless work in the postseason before the Mets were eliminated. He was the best reliever in baseball this year and it could be argued that he’s the best in quite some time.

He hasn’t been quite this good at all times. He had a 5.59 ERA in 2019, for instance, and a 3.45 mark last year. However, there are reasons to be skeptical of those numbers. He allowed a .377 batting average on balls in play in 2019 and saw 26.8% of fly balls go over the fence. Both of those numbers are outliers relative to his career, leading to all the advanced metrics to view him as worthy of much better. Last year, his 67.8% strand rate caused a similar though less-extreme disparity. Although his ERA was wobbled a few times, his xERA, xFIP and SIERA all suggest he’s been much more consistent than you might think at first glance.

Due to the volatile nature of relief pitching, teams generally avoid spending lavishly on the bullpen. The largest ever guarantee for a reliever was the five years and $86MM secured by Aroldis Chapman. Díaz is going into free agency at the same age as Chapman was then, with a résumé that’s similarly dominant. Add in six years of inflation, increased luxury tax thresholds, a free-spending Mets team and Díaz’s marketable entrance and there’s a chance baseball could see it’s first ever $100MM reliever.

Potential Closers

• Kenley Jansen (35)

Jansen was a free agent one year ago, eventually settling for a one-year, $16MM deal with the Braves. Though he’s not quite at the same level he was at while at his peak with the Dodgers, he was still plenty effective. He threw 64 innings in 2022 with a 3.38 ERA, striking out 32.7% of batters face while walking 8.5% and getting grounders on 29.9% of balls in play. That was all while functioning as the team’s closer, racking up 41 saves on the year. Naturally, Jansen’s velocity is trending downwards as he ages, but his fastball still averaged 93.6 this year. That’s just a few ticks below his peak of 96 which was back in 2014.

Though the Braves have said they would love to have Jansen back, it seems they already acquired their replacement closer by grabbing Raisel Iglesias at the trade deadline. With Iglesias under contract for three more seasons and the Braves needing their funds to address shortstop and perhaps left field, it seems possible that Jansen gets a new jersey for 2023. Given his age, he won’t require a lengthy commitment and could hold plenty of appeal for teams that want to bolster the top of the bullpen chart but are scared off the Díaz market.

• Craig Kimbrel (35)

Kimbrel is likely the most divisive name on this list. He’s already established himself as one of the best closers of all-time, with his 394 career saves placing him seventh on the all-time list. However, he’s been remarkably inconsistent over the past four years. After the 2018 season, Kimbrel turned down a qualifying offer from the Red Sox but teams were apparently unwilling to surrender a draft pick to sign him. He languished on the open market until after the draft, when the Cubs signed him to a three-year deal with an option for 2022.

Kimbrel was awful in both 2019 and 2020, posting ERAs of 6.53 and 5.28, respectively. In 2021, he seemed to get back on track, posting an elite 0.49 ERA before getting traded across town to the White Sox. He then put up a 5.09 ERA on the other side of town, but the Sox still picked up his option and traded him to the Dodgers. In L.A. this year, Kimbrel posted a 3.75 ERA with a 27.7% strikeout rate, 10.8% walk rate and 39.7% ground ball rate. Those numbers aren’t dreadful, yet Kimbrel lost his hold on the closer’s job throughout the season and didn’t make the postseason roster.

His market will be tough to peg and could depend on what Kimbrel wants. Is he looking for maximum dollars? A spot on a competitive team? A closer’s role? It might be hard to get all three, based on his recent struggles, which could put him in a position of making tough choices. Would he rather be a closer on a rebuilding team, hoping to get flipped to a contender at the deadline? Or would he prefer to sign with a contender right away, even if he’ll be farther down the depth chart?

• David Robertson (38)

Tommy John surgery limited Robertson to just 18 2/3 total innings over 2019-2021 but he bounced back with aplomb in 2022. He signed a one-year deal with the Cubs that came with a $3.5MM base and $1.5MM in incentives. He threw 40 1/3 innings with the Cubs with a 2.23 ERA, 30.9% strikeout rate, 11.5% walk rate and 48.4% ground ball rate, racking up 14 saves in the process.

He got flipped to the Phillies at the deadline and continued along similar lines. His 16.2% walk rate wasn’t ideal, but he still managed a 2.70 ERA in 23 1/3 innings while striking out 30.3% of batters and getting ground balls on 43.4% of balls in play. As the Phillies charged through the postseason, he was able to add even more innings, despite missing the NLDS due to a freak calf injury sustained while celebrating Bryce Harper’s home run in the Wild Card series. He’s already expressed his desire to return for another season in 2023.

Solid Leverage Arms

• Carlos Estevez (30)

Estevez missed the entirety of 2018 due to injury but has been a mainstay of the Rockies’ bullpen in the four seasons since then. He racked up at least 10 holds in each of the past three full seasons as well as six in the shortened 2020 campaign. He also scattered 14 saves across those four seasons. He had a very unfortunate 7.50 ERA in 2020 but was at 3.75 in 2019, 4.38 in 2021 and 3.47 in 2022, not bad for a pitcher making Coors Field his home. If you’re wondering about the effect of the ballpark, he has a career 5.57 ERA at home versus a 3.51 on the road.

• Michael Fulmer (30)

The 2016 American League Rookie of the Year missed all of 2019 due to Tommy John surgery and then was awful in 2020. Switching from the rotation to the bullpen paid dividends as he put up a 2.97 ERA in 2021 and a 3.39 mark in 2022. He doesn’t have huge strikeout stuff, with his 22.1% rate this year slightly below average for relievers. However, he does have an ability to keep hitters off balance, finishing this year in the 91st percentile in terms of missing barrels. That’s generally come in high-leverage situations, as he earned 17 saves over the past two seasons along with 34 holds.

• Mychal Givens (33)

Givens has eight seasons of MLB experience under his belt and has been fairly consistent in that time. He posted a 1.80 ERA in his debut but has been mostly in the 3.00-4.00 range since then. In 2022, he split his time between the Cubs and Mets, throwing 61 /3 innings with a 3.38 ERA, 27.3% strikeout rate, 9.6% walk rate and 42.8% ground ball rate. He notched a pair of saves and seven holds, bringing his career tallies to 31 and 84, respectively.

• Seth Lugo (33)

A consistently solid late-game arm for the Mets, Lugo has five sub-4.00 ERA seasons in his seven-year MLB career. He’s posted mid-3.00’s marks in each of the past two seasons, striking batters out and inducing ground-balls at slightly above-average rates. Lugo’s swinging strike rate bizarrely dipped in 2022, but he’s typically adept at getting whiffs behind a fastball in the 94 MPH range and a curveball with top-of-the-scale spin.

• Chris Martin (37)

Martin had a quietly fabulous season split between the Cubs and Dodgers. He worked to a 3.05 ERA through 56 innings, punching out an elite 32.9% of opponents against a remarkably low 2.2% walk percentage. The veteran righty has been one of the game’s more underrated middle innings arms for the past four seasons. He virtually never hands out a free pass, owns a fastball in the mid-90s and picks up strikeouts and grounders. Martin’s age is the drawback, as he’ll turn 37 next June, but his performance might be enough to land him a multi-year deal.

• Trevor May (33)

A typically solid middle innings arm for the Twins and Mets, May had a down 2022 campaign. He lost a couple months after being diagnosed with a stress reaction in his throwing arm, limiting him to 25 innings across 26 appearances. May posted an unimpressive 5.04 ERA during that stretch, although he paired it with an above-average 27% strikeout rate and a solid 8.1% walk percentage. He still misses bats and averages north of 96 MPH on his fastball, so he should be a solid bounceback target.

• Rafael Montero (32)

Montero rebounded from a rough 2021 season to post a stellar platform campaign in Houston. The righty soaked up 68 1/3 innings, pitching to a 2.37 ERA while fanning 27% of opponents against an 8.5% walk percentage. Montero has also posted a grounder rate above 50% in each of the last two seasons, and his average fastball sits just a bit below 97 MPH. He’s already 32, but that combination of excellent run prevention and accompanying underlying marks should make him one of the more appealing relievers in this year’s class.

• Adam Ottavino (37)

Ottavino has had some ups and downs late in his career, but he was downright excellent in 2022. He gave the Mets 65 2/3 innings of 2.06 ERA ball, striking out 30.6% of opponents against a 6.2% walk rate that’s his lowest mark since 2016. Ottavino has never had much trouble missing bats, but he’s battled wobbly control at times. That wasn’t an issue this year, and he thoroughly dominated same-handed opponents. Righties mustered a pitiful .160/.226/.253 line in 177 plate appearances against him. Lefties have long given him trouble, but he’s at least a high-end situational option. He should beat the $4MM guarantee he received in free agency last winter.

Wild Cards

• Archie Bradley (30)

Bradley moved from the rotation to the bullpen in 2017 and then had five consecutive solid seasons. He signed a one-year deal with the Angels for 2022 but dealt with injuries for much of the year. He ended up throwing 18 2/3 innings when able to take the mound and had a 4.82 ERA, a step back from his previous work. There was likely some bad luck in there, especially from his 48.7% strand rate, but his strikeout rate has been below 20% for the past two seasons after being around 25-27% in the previous four. Perhaps he just needs to get healthy in order to rebound but he’ll probably have to settle for less than the $3.75MM he got from the Angels a year ago.

• Miguel Castro (28)

Castro has been bouncing around the league for the past eight seasons, spending time with the Blue Jays, Rockies, Orioles, Mets and Yankees in that time. Those clubs were likely tantalized by Castro’s combination of strikeouts and ground balls, as he has gotten grounders on 49% of balls in play in his career while punching out 25% of batters faced over the past four seasons. However, control has been a consistent issue, with Castro sitting on a career walk rate of 12.3% and having never been below 10% in any single season except for a short stint back in 2016. He’s gotten some leverage work in his career, racking up 46 holds, but never more than nine in a single season. He hasn’t quite earned enough trust to be considered a proper setup option, but he’s still relatively young and could find another gear with a bit more command.

• Ken Giles (32)

Giles was one of the best relievers in baseball as recently as 2019, when he earned 23 saves for the Blue Jays while pitching to a 1.87 ERA and 39.9% strikeout rate. However, it’s been a rough few years since then, as he only pitched in 3 2/3 innings in 2020 before eventually requiring Tommy John surgery. He missed all of 2021 but seemed to be on track to return to action in 2022. Unfortunately, a finger injury kept him out of action until June, when he threw 4 1/3 innings before returning to the IL with shoulder tightness. He was designated for assignment and signed a minor league deal with the Giants, getting released in August. He’s only been able to throw eight total MLB innings over the past three seasons but was excellent the last time he was healthy enough to get a meaningful stretch of playing time.

• Chad Green (32)

Green has pitched for the Yankees in each of the past seven seasons as an effective setup man. He has 11 saves and 52 holds while putting up a 3.17 ERA, 32.5% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate and 32.3% ground ball rate. He would have been one of the highlights of this list if not for ill-timed Tommy John surgery. Of course, there’s never a good time for a pitcher to require TJS, but news of Green’s procedure came out in May, when he was just a few months away from his first trip to free agency. He will likely miss at least the first half of 2023, depending on his recovery. Pitchers in this situation will sometimes agree to a back-loaded two-year deal, with the signing team aware they are unlikely to recoup much return on their investment in the first season.

• Tommy Hunter (36)

Hunter missed most of 2021 due to back surgery and eventually settled for a minor league deal with the Mets. He later cracked the club’s big league roster and tossed 22 1/3 innings with a 2.42 ERA, 23.4% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 40% ground ball rate. He’s generally been a solid performer, including this year, but he hasn’t eclipsed 25 innings in a season since 2018. He will certainly garner interest but the durability issues will likely create some hesitancy.

• Luke Jackson (31)

Jackson had a breakout season in 2021, throwing 63 2/3 innings for Atlanta with a 1.98 ERA, 26.8% strikeout rate, 11.1% walk rate and 52.5% ground ball rate. He also added 8 2/3 more frames in the postseason on the way to becoming a World Series champion. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John surgery in April of 2022, which wiped out the entire season for him. He should be able to return in 2023, though perhaps not for the entire season, depending on his recovery.

• Pierce Johnson (32)

Johnson spent 2019 in Japan and pitched well enough to get himself a two-year deal with a club option from the Padres. Over 2020 and 2021, he tossed 78 2/3 innings for the Friars with a 3.09 ERA, 32.1% strikeout rate, 11.1% walk rate and 33% ground ball rate. The club had a $3MM option for 2022 that came with a $1MM buyout, making it a fairly easy call to trigger that net $2MM decision. Unfortunately, Johnson landed on the IL in April due to right forearm tendinitis and didn’t return until September 10. He only threw 14 1/3 innings this year and had a 5.02 ERA in that time. That’s a small sample and his rate stats were relatively unchanged, meaning that he might be able to recapture his previous form.

• Tommy Kahnle (34)

Kahnle hasn’t pitched much over the past few seasons. He threw just one inning in 2020 and underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of that year, knocking him out for all of last year. Kahnle made it back this past April, but he missed roughly four months battling renewed arm troubles. He managed just 12 2/3 regular season innings, but he looked the part of a high-leverage arm during that time. Kahnle averaged almost 96 MPH on his fastball and pitched to a 2.84 ERA with a 30.4% strikeout rate. He’s a high-risk, high-upside play but was one of the game’s best relievers with the White Sox and Yankees between 2016-17.

• Corey Knebel (31)

Knebel parlayed a 2021 rebound with the Dodgers into a $10MM guarantee with the Phillies last winter. The former Brewers closer didn’t match his best numbers. His 3.43 ERA across 44 2/3 innings was fine, but Knebel only struck out 21.1% of opponents while walking batters at a massive 14.4% clip. He was diagnosed with a tear in his shoulder capsule in August, ending his season. Knebel also lost roughly three months to lat issues in 2021 and missed 2019 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.

• Trevor Williams (31)

A starter for most of his career, Williams appeared in 30 games in 2022 with 21 of those being relief appearances. He posted quality results over his 89 2/3 innings, registering a 3.21 ERA along with a 22.6% strikeout rate, 6.2% walk rate and 36.2% ground ball rate. He could garner interest as a reliever but could also get another shot at a rotation job.

Depth Options

• Tyler Beede (30): Once a well-regarded prospect, Beede has yet to click in the majors. In 2022, he split his time between the Giants and Pirates, making five starts but coming out of the bullpen most of the time. He had a 5.14 ERA on the year while striking out just 13.7% of batters faced. He was designated for assignment and cleared waivers in September.
• Jhoulys Chacin (35): Chacin was decent enough in 2021 that the Rockies re-signed him for one year and $1.25MM. Unfortunately, 2022 was a nightmare, with Chacin posting a 7.61 ERA in 47 1/3 innings. He was released in September and would have to settle for minor league deals this winter.
• Jesse Chavez (39): Chavez signed with the Cubs on a minor league/split deal and ended up also pitching for the Angels and Braves. Between the three clubs, he threw 69 1/3 innings with a 3.76 ERA, 25.3% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate. His age will limit him to one-year deals but he’s still plenty effective out there.
• Steve Cishek (37): 2022 was Cishek’s 13th MLB campaign, which he spent with the Nationals. He tossed 66 1/3 innings of 4,21 ERA ball. He still got strikeouts at a solid 25.8% clip, though his 11 home runs surrendered were a career worst. He could potentially get a somewhat similar contract to the one-year, $1.75MM deal he signed with the Nats last offseason, though he has also considered retiring.
• Alex Colome (34): Colome was a solid closer from 2016 to 2020 but is coming off a second straight poor season. He had a 4.15 ERA in 2021 and saw that climb to 5.74 here in 2022. He played this year on a one-year, $4.1MM deal with the Rockies but will surely have to settle for less in 2023.
• Jharel Cotton (31): Cotton tossed 43 innings between the Twins and Giants with a 3.56 ERA, 21.5% strikeout rate, 11% walk rate and 29.4% ground ball rate. The Giants put him on waivers in October, with Cotton clearing and electing free agency.
• Tyler Danish (28): Danish only had 13 innings of MLB experience before 2022, when he logged 40 1/3 for the Red Sox. He put up a 5.13 ERA in that time while striking out just 18.5% of batters faced but limiting walks to a 6.9% clip. He cleared waivers in October and elected free agency.
• Tyler Duffey (32): Duffey has long been a solid member of the Twins’ bullpen but had a rough 2022. His ERA shot up to 4.91 as he gave up eight homers in just 44 innings. His strikeout rate also fell to 21.1% after being above 30% in 2019 and 2020. He was released in August, eventually signing minor league deals with the Rangers and Yankees.
• Jeurys Familia (33): Familia has a long track record of effective relief work but the wheels came off in 2022. He split his time between the Phillies and Red Sox and put up a combined 6.90 ERA in 44 1/3 innings. Boston designated him for assignment in September, with Familia rejecting an outright assignment and electing free agency.
• Will Harris (38): Harris hasn’t pitched since May of 2021 after undergoing surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. He was a very effective reliever almost a decade prior to that, but given his age and recent history, it’s unlikely teams will guarantee him significant dollars or a roster spot.
• Heath Hembree (34): Hembree has had some good seasons in the past but hasn’t posted an ERA below 5.50 since 2019. In 2022, he split his time between the Pirates and Dodgers, throwing 22 innings with a 7.36 ERA. He was designated for assignment by the Dodgers in September before clearing waivers and electing free agency.
• Dominic Leone (32): Leone posted a 4.01 ERA through 49 1/3 innings with the Giants this year. He didn’t have eye-catching strikeout and walk marks, but he induced swinging strikes at a fantastic 18.1% clip. He’s an interesting buy-low target, although he was let go in September after hitting the injured list with an elbow issue.
• Ian Kennedy (38): Kennedy signed with the Diamondbacks last offseason, but his stint in the desert didn’t go as planned. He posted a 5.36 ERA across 50 1/3 innings while allowing almost two home runs per nine innings.
• Mike Mayers (31): Mayers was really good over 2020 and 2021, throwing 105 innings with a 3.34 ERA and 30.5% strikeout rate. He couldn’t sustain it in 2022, however, as his strikeout rate dropped to 20.2% and his ERA jumped to 5.68. The Angels designated him for assignment in September.
• Keynan Middleton (29): Middleton pitched for the Diamondbacks in 2022, logging 17 frames with a 5.29 ERA. His 4.3% walk rate in that time was excellent, though he also allowed five homers in that stretch.
• Darren O’Day (40): The submariner O’Day put up a 4.15 ERA across 21 2/3 innings with the Braves this season. Despite a mid-80s fastball, he still misses bats thanks to his unconventional arm angle.
• Wily Peralta (34): Peralta put up a 2.58 ERA through 38 1/3 innings for the Tigers. It wasn’t supported by his lackluster strikeout and walk rates, and Detroit cut him loose in August.
• David Phelps (36): Phelps soaked up 63 2/3 frames for the Blue Jays with a 2.83 ERA. He had a useful 23.5% strikeout rate, but he walked batters at an elevated 11.4% clip and was extremely fortunate to only surrender two home runs despite a modest 35.5% grounder percentage.
• Erasmo Ramirez (33): Ramirez was a capable long relief option for the Nationals. He absorbed 86 1/3 innings over 60 outings, putting up a 2.92 ERA in spite of a modest 17.6% strikeout rate.
• Noe Ramirez (33): Ramirez posted an ERA of exactly 3.00 in both 2020 and 2021 but saw that number jump to 5.22 in 2022. His strikeout rate actually increased, but he also allowed more walks and more homers.
• Garrett Richards (35): Richards signed with the Rangers in Spring Training. He was let go in August after putting up a 5.27 ERA through 42 2/3 innings. Richards induced ground-balls at a productive 52.6% clip but didn’t miss many bats.
• Hansel Robles (32): Robles was hit hard in Boston, posting a 5.84 ERA across 24 2/3 innings with subpar strikeout and walk numbers. He was released in August and finished the year in Triple-A with the Dodgers.
• Sergio Romo (40): The veteran slider specialist pitched 18 innings between the Mariners and Blue Jays this year. He gave up a 7.50 ERA and was unsigned for the second half.
• Hirokazu Sawamura (35): Sawamura put up a 3.73 ERA through 50 2/3 innings for the Red Sox. He throws hard and got a fair number of ground-balls, but he didn’t have especially strong strikeout and walk numbers. Boston released him in September.
• Bryan Shaw (35): Shaw’s a bullpen workhorse, but his 2022 season with the Guardians was unspectacular. He allowed a 5.40 ERA through 58 1/3 innings and was outrighted off the 40-man roster just before the playoffs.
• Joe Smith (39): A submariner, Smith had some success as recently as 2019. He’s had a tough go the past couple years, including a 4.61 ERA across 27 1/3 innings with the Twins in 2022. Minnesota released him in August.
• Craig Stammen (39): A veteran grounder specialist, Stammen has soaked up plenty of innings for the Padres in recent years. His 2022 season wasn’t his best, as he allowed a 4.43 ERA over 40 2/3 innings. He still induced grounders on half the batted balls he surrendered, but he gave up a number of homers and was scratched for the playoffs.
• Hunter Strickland (34): Strickland spent the year in Cincinnati, posting a 4.91 ERA through 62 1/3 frames. He throws in the mid-90s but had an 11.6% walk rate.
• Vince Velasquez (31): Velasquez came out of the bullpen for 18 of 27 appearances with the White Sox this year. The former Phillies starter logged a 4.25 ERA in 36 innings of relief.
• J.B. Wendelken (30): Wendelken had a really nice stretch of results from 2018 to 2020 but put up an ERA of 4.33 in 2021 and then 5.28 in 2022. His 29.2% strikeout rate from 2020 dropped to 20.1% and then 17.2% in the two most recent seasons. He was designated for assignment by the Diamondbacks in July and seemed to get back on track in the minors, posting a 2.63 ERA with 35.1% strikeout rate.
• Matt Wisler (30): Wisler pitched 44 innings with the Rays. He had an excellent 2.25 ERA but was nevertheless let go in September. That’s largely an acknowledgement of his modest 19.9% strikeout rate and a 10.8% swinging strike rate that, while decent, is down a few points from prior seasons.
• Nick Wittgren (32): Wittgren worked 29 innings for the Cardinals this year. He posted a 5.90 ERA with a 12.7% strikeout percentage and was released in July.

Players With Options

• Anthony Bass (35), club has $3MM option with $1MM buyout

Acquired by the Blue Jays from the Marlins at the deadline, Bass is coming off the best season of his career. He put up a 1.54 ERA in 70 1/3 innings between the two clubs. Some of that is good luck, as he had a .256 BABIP and 89.5% strand rate. However, he also struck out 26.5% of batters faced, almost four ticks above his previous personal best. His 7.3% walk rate was also the lowest in years. It will be hard for him to be quite that good going forward, but he’s been a solid reliever for five years running and is a bargain at this price.

• Brad Boxberger (35), club has $3MM option with $750K buyout

Boxberger threw 64 innings for the Brewers in 2022, ending up with a 2.95 ERA , 25.4% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate and 34.3% ground ball rate. The ERA is nice but all three of those rate stats moved the wrong direction compared to his 2021 numbers. Still, this is a net $2.25MM decision, a fairly reasonable price for a solid veteran coming off three straight good years. The Brewers seem to have a tight payroll this year and might look for creative ways to save money, but if they don’t want to pay Boxberger, they should be able to pick up this option and line up a trade with a team that does.

• Jose Leclerc (29), club has $6MM option with $750K buyout

Leclerc was dominant enough in 2018 to get a four-year extension from the Rangers, which included club options for 2023 and 2024. He had a poor season in the first year of the deal and then missed most of 2020 and 2021 due to Tommy John surgery. He got things back on track in 2022, throwing 47 2/3 innings with a 2.83 ERA and 27.3% strikeout rate. That’s not quite where he was at his peak but he got stronger as the season went along, even earning a few saves and holds down the stretch. If the club decides to give him another go, they can retain him again for 2024 via a $6.25MM club option that again has a $750K buyout.

• Nick Martinez (32), can opt out of final three years and $18.5MM in favor of $1.5MM buyout

Martinez pitched in Japan from 2018 to 2021, posting quality results and earning himself a four-year, $25.5MM deal from the Padres. However, that deal was actually structured as a one-year contract followed by a series of player options, meaning Martinez can return to free agency now if he wants. He posted a 4.30 ERA as a starter and then got bumped to the bullpen, putting up a much stronger 2.67 ERA there. He’s likely get lots of interest from bullpen-needy teams but reportedly wants a rotation gig.

• Jimmy Nelson (33), club has $1.1MM option

Nelson underwent Tommy John surgery in August of 2021 and then was re-signed by the Dodgers, with the club knowing they were unlikely to see him in 2022. The reasoning for the gamble was pretty clear since he was excellent prior to the surgery. He posted a 1.86 ERA in 29 innings in 2021, striking out 37.9% of batters faced. If the Dodgers expect him to be healthy at any point next year, this is a no-brainer to be picked up.

• Robert Suarez (32), $5MM player option with $1MM buyout

Suarez had never pitched in the majors prior to 2022, spending the previous five seasons in Japan. The Padres then signed him to a one-year deal with a player option for 2023. Suarez excelled in his 47 2/3 innings, posting a 2.27 ERA with a 31.9% strikeout rate. The 11% walk rate was a little on the high side, but it didn’t stop Suarez from earning high-leverage opportunities. He grabbed one save and 11 holds in the regular season and then three more holds in the playoffs. He’s got a net $4MM decision to make but should be able to easily top that mark on the open market.

Previous installments: Catcher, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop, Corner outfields, Center Field, Designated Hitter, Starting Pitcher, Left-Handed Relief

Free agency kicks off roughly a week from now. MLBTR has gone around the diamond to take a position-by-position look at the upcoming class. As we round out those previews, we’ll turn our attention to the relief market. We begin today with the left-handed options.

High-Leverage Arms

• Taylor Rogers (32 years old next season)

It wasn’t a great 2022 campaign for Rogers, who found himself at the center of one of the summer’s more controversial trades. He was actually dealt twice this year, first going from the Twins to the Padres in a Opening Day swap that landed Chris Paddack in Minnesota. A few months later, he was a key piece of the rare deadline deal between contenders, with the Brewers acquiring him and a pair of prospects from San Diego for Josh Hader. It didn’t work out as intended, as Rogers surrendered six home runs and blew three leads in Milwaukee. His underperformance was part of an overall bullpen meltdown that contributed to the Brewers narrowly missing the postseason.

That said, there’s also plenty of reason for optimism moving forward. Part of the Brewers’ rationale in the Hader swap was that Rogers could somewhat closely approximate Hader’s production. That wasn’t unfounded, as he’s only a year removed from an All-Star appearance and had been one of the sport’s top late-game weapons. Rogers pitched to a 2.91 ERA with a lofty 31.2% strikeout rate and a meager 4.9% walk percentage from 2018-21 in Minnesota. An elevated batting average on balls in play contributed to an unimpressive 4.35 ERA during his half-season in San Diego, but he continued to post well above-average strikeout and walk marks there. He took that to another level in Milwaukee, fanning an incredible 36% of opponents as a Brewer.

There’s no question the home run barrage ended his season on a sour note, but it’s worth noting the longball was never really a problem for Rogers before those ghastly final two months. Opponents certainly aren’t going to continue to clear the fences on more than a quarter of fly balls against him over the long haul, and Rogers’ overall 30.7% strikeout percentage and 6.6% walk rate in 2022 aren’t far off his best marks in Minnesota. While a 4.76 ERA in his platform year wouldn’t suggest it, it’s not hard to still project him as an excellent high-leverage reliever based on the underlying marks.

• Andrew Chafin (33)

Chafin has a $6.5MM player option with the Tigers, but Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press has already reported he’ll forego that and test the market. He’s certain to beat that amount in free agency, likely topping $6.5MM annually over a two-year deal.

Despite not possessing huge velocity, Chafin has posted above-average strikeout numbers in each of the past two years. He was particularly effective this past season, punching out 27.6% of opponents behind an excellent 13.9% swinging strike rate. He induced ground-balls at a very strong 51.3% clip and only walked 7.8% of batters faced. He’s posted a sub-3.00 ERA in each of the last two seasons, and he now owns a cumulative 2.29 mark while allowing a putrid .203/.268/.299 slash since the start of 2021.

There’s not much to nitpick in Chafin’s performance. He’ll be 33 next June and sits around 92 MPH with his fastball, but one can’t argue with the results. He’ll appeal to teams looking for a key late-inning southpaw, and he’s more than held his own against opponents from both sides of the dish.

• Matt Moore (34)

Once the sport’s top pitching prospect, Moore had a lengthy but up-and-down career as a starting pitcher. He spent 2020 in Japan and a return to the U.S. with the Phillies last year was a disaster. He signed a minor league deal with the Rangers in Spring Training and made it to the big leagues in mid-April. Working fully in relief for the first time in his career, he proved a revelation for Texas.

Moore soaked up 74 innings over 63 appearances in Arlington, earning high-leverage work along the way. He pitched to a 1.95 ERA and while he’s not likely to sustain that level of run prevention long-term, there’s plenty to like in his underlying profile. Moore fanned an above-average 27.3% of opponents and racked up whiffs on almost 15% of his offerings. He averaged 93.9 MPH with plus spin on his four-seam and missed plenty of bats with a curveball and changeup alike. At 34 years old, he’ll probably max out at two-year offers, and an elevated 12.5% walk rate is a concern in the highest-leverage innings. Still, there’s little doubting the power stuff he brandished, and he could be on his way to a late-career renaissance in relief.

• Matt Strahm (31)

Strahm’s free agency is quietly one of the more interesting cases this winter. His stock as a traditional reliever is straightforward. Strahm gave the Red Sox 44 2/3 innings of 3.83 ERA ball this past season, assuming a fair amount of high-leverage work. He struck out an above-average 26.9% of opponents despite a modest 9.9% swinging strike rate and walked a roughly average 8.8% of batters faced.

He’d have a chance at a multi-year deal as a reliever, but Strahm has also spoken of his willingness to stretch back out as a starting pitcher if given the opportunity. There’s reason to believe he could have some success. Strahm was a highly-regarded starting pitching prospect during his days in the Royals’ farm system. He has decent control, handled left and right-handed batters alike this year, and mixes in four pitches with regularity. Strahm hasn’t been as forceful about his desire to sign with a team promising a rotation spot as Michael Lorenzen was last winter, and it’s possible his best fit will ultimately remain in the bullpen, but he could plausibly draw some interest as a starter.

Middle Relief Options

• Matt Boyd (32)

A starter throughout his time with the Tigers, Boyd flashed strong swing-and-miss potential at his best. He had an up-and-down tenure in Detroit but looked on his way to arguably his best season in 2021, working to a 3.89 ERA through 15 starts. Unfortunately, he battled arm issues during the second half of the season and underwent surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his forearm in September. With an expected recovery time of nearly a calendar year, the Tigers non-tendered him.

Boyd signed with the Giants to continue his rehab, but San Francisco flipped him to his hometown Mariners at the deadline before he threw a pitch in black and orange. Boyd was activated in September but forced to work in relief, as the approaching end of the season limited his time to build back into game shape. He struck out 13 but walked eight (three intentionally) through 13 1/3 innings. Boyd only faced three batters in the postseason, and he now heads back to the market with some uncertainty. Another team may be willing to give him a rotation audition after a healthy offseason, but he also figures to draw interest as a matchup weapon out of the bullpen.

• David Price (37)

A five-time All-Star and a Cy Young winner during his time as a starter, Price began to work primarily out of the bullpen in 2021. He pitched exclusively in relief for the Dodgers this year, tossing 40 1/3 innings through 40 outings. Price had a solid showing, putting up a 2.45 ERA and inducing ground-balls at a huge 55.8% clip. He only averaged 92.4 MPH on his sinker and had a well below-average 8% swinging strike rate, and there’s no question he was fortunate to post such an excellent run prevention mark. At the same time, his combination of grounders and strong control make him a viable middle innings fit. If Price wants to continue playing, he should find a guaranteed big league job.

• Joely Rodríguez (31)

Traded from the Yankees to the Mets just before Opening Day, Rodríguez spent the season in Queens. He was Buck Showalter’s primary left-handed option but had an up-and-down year. Through 50 1/3 innings, he allowed a 4.47 ERA. He had some unfortunate luck in stranding baserunners that probably inflated that number, but he also walked 12% of opponents. Paired with the spotty control was an enviable combination of whiffs and grounders, as he punched out 26.4% of batters faced and generated a grounder rate above 50%, as he has throughout his big league career. Rodríguez’s average sinker velocity was down to 92.7 MPH after sitting north of 94 MPH in 2021, but his performance was still solid enough he’s likely to land a big league contract.

Former Stars

• Zack Britton (35)

Britton was arguably the game’s best reliever at his peak. He had a 0.54 ERA in 67 innings for the Orioles in a career-best 2016 campaign, but that was just one year in a four-season stretch of sub-3.00 marks. Britton remained eminently productive upon being traded to the Yankees, continuing to dominate opponents up through 2020. No one could match his ground-ball prowess, as he annually rode his incredible sinker to grounder rates north of 70%.

Unfortunately, Britton now heads to the market on the heels of two lost seasons. He pitched just 18 1/3 ineffective innings for the Yankees in 2021, battling elbow issues that eventually necessitated Tommy John surgery. He returned this past September in an attempt to crack New York’s playoff roster, but he clearly wasn’t right. Britton averaged just north of 92 MPH on his fastball, three to four ticks below his heyday. He walked six of the nine batters he faced before being shut down for the season because of shoulder discomfort. He’ll hope the offseason affords him a chance to regain his pre-2021 form. ESPN’s Marly Rivera reported in September that Britton and the Yankees were discussing a new contract, but nothing has come together thus far.

• Aroldis Chapman (35)

An overpowering late-game presence at his peak, Chapman was once perhaps the hardest thrower the game has ever seen. He routinely struck out north of 40% of opposing hitters and while he’s never had great control, his dominant stuff was more than enough to offset a few walks. Chapman has seven sub-3.00 ERA seasons on his resume and was rewarded with the largest reliever contract in MLB history — a five-year, $86MM pact heading into the 2017 campaign. After the 2019 season, the Yankees added an extra $18MM to that deal to keep him from triggering an opt-out clause.

Chapman was still effective up through last season. A fastball that once averaged north of triple digits “only” then sat around 98 MPH, but he continued to miss bats in droves and put up a 3.31 ERA between 2020-21. His 2022 season was an unmitigated disaster, however. Chapman still averaged 97.5 MPH on his fastball, but his formerly otherworldly strikeout rate dropped to a merely good 26.9%. He also walked nearly 18% of opponents en route to a personal-worst 4.46 ERA in 36 1/3 innings. He missed time late in the regular season after a bad tattoo led to a leg infection, and the Yankees left him off their postseason roster after he failed to show up for a team workout. It was a dreadful platform season, but Chapman’s still among the harder throwers in the sport and had a long pre-2022 track record as an elite reliever.

• Brad Hand (33)

Hand was among the game’s best relievers from 2016-20. He posted a sub-3.00 mark in four of those five seasons and earned a trio of All-Star berths. A velocity dip during the 2020 season contributed to Cleveland’s surprising decision to cut him loose despite a 2.05 ERA through 22 innings. Hand split the 2021 season between three teams before signing a one-year deal with Philadelphia last winter.

Over 45 regular season innings, Hand posted a fine 2.80 ERA. That’s largely attributable to some ball in play fortune and an extremely low home run rate, though. His 19.2% strikeout rate and 11.6% walk percentage are each markedly worse than average, and he’s gotten swinging strikes on only 7.3% of his pitches. He may be hard-pressed to match the $6MM guarantee he landed from the Phillies last winter.

Minor League Deal Candidates

• José Álvarez (34): Álvarez had a quality 2021 season, but he managed just a 5.28 ERA through 15 1/3 innings in 2022. He underwent Tommy John surgery in September and is likely to miss all of next season.
• Anthony Banda (30): Banda suited up for three different teams in 2022, frequently shuttling around the waiver wire. He allowed a 6.75 ERA over 26 2/3 innings. A former top prospect, he averaged north of 95 MPH on his fastball this year.
• Danny Coulombe (33): Coulombe has carved out a decent career as a strike-throwing depth arm despite lacking huge velocity. He had a rough 2022 season, though, putting up nine strikeouts and walks apiece in 12 1/3 innings for the Twins. He only allowed three runs, but Minnesota nevertheless cut him loose after the season because of the poor peripherals.
• Austin Davis (30): Davis spent the bulk of the season with the Red Sox but had a brief look with the Twins after being claimed off waivers. Between the two teams, he posted a 5.79 ERA over 56 innings. He struck out a solid 24.2% of opponents and averaged above 94 MPH on his fastball, but he walked 12.5% of batters faced. He cleared waivers late in the season and reached minor league free agency.
• Ross Detwiler (37): Detwiler made 30 appearances for the Reds after signing a minor league deal. He put up a 4.44 ERA despite average strikeout and walk numbers before being outrighted off the 40-man roster in late August.
• Sean Doolittle (36): A two-time All-Star, Doolittle has settled into journeyman territory over the past three seasons. He returned to the Nationals, where he had some of his best years, for the 2022 campaign. After starting the year with 5 1/3 innings of scoreless, one-hit ball, he suffered ligament damage in his elbow that necessitated a UCL brace procedure in mid-July. That ended his year. He’s expected to be healthy for 2023 but may have to pitch his way back onto a big league roster as a non-roster invitee to Spring Training.
• Paul Fry (30): Fry looked like he’d broken out with a strong 2020 and excellent first half in ’21 for the Orioles. Things have fallen apart since that year’s All-Star Break, as he has an 11.70 ERA in 20 MLB innings dating back to last August. The Diamondbacks took a shot on him in May but let him go three months later.
• Adam Kolarek (34): Kolarek barely touches 90 MPH with his fastball and doesn’t miss bats, but he annually posts elite ground-ball numbers. He put up a 4.58 ERA in 17 2/3 innings for the A’s this season and was let go in late June.
• T.J. McFarland (34): A soft-tossing grounder specialist, McFarland had some success for the Cardinals in 2021. The veteran had a rough ’22 campaign, pitching to a 6.61 ERA with a personal-worst (but still strong) 53% grounder rate before losing his big league roster spot in mid-August.
• Jake McGee (36): McGee was an excellent closer for the Giants in 2021, but this past season was a disaster. He suited up for three different teams after bouncing around the waiver wire but didn’t find success at any of those stops. Between the Giants, Brewers and Nationals, he posted a 6.81 ERA with just a 15.3% strikeout rate over 37 frames.
• Tommy Milone (36): A quintessential journeyman, Milone has bounced around the league thanks to his excellent control. He doesn’t throw hard or miss bats, but he pounds the strike zone and can make a spot start or work in long relief. He played the latter role for this year’s Mariners, tossing 16 2/3 innings over seven relief outings. He posted a 5.40 ERA with five strikeouts and six walks.
• Sean Newcomb (30): Newcomb’s a former top prospect who once looked like a potential rotation building block for the Braves. He’s been hit hard since the start of 2020, however. This past season was especially rough, as he managed only an 8.78 ERA through 27 2/3 innings with astronomical walk and home run rates while bouncing on and off the Atlanta and Cubs rosters. Newcomb throws in the mid-90’s and has a strong prospect pedigree, so he’ll find minor league interest.
• Daniel Norris (30): Norris had a bizarre 2022 season. Despite a stellar 32.1% strikeout rate as a member of the Cubs early in the year, he was tagged for a 6.90 ERA through 30 innings thanks to huge walk and home run rates. That led to a release, although he returned to the majors with the Tigers not long after. In Detroit, Norris lost his strikeouts but also got the walks and the longball under control en route to a 3.45 ERA in 28 2/3 frames.
• Josh Rogers (28): Rogers came out of the bullpen for 13 of 16 outings with the Nationals. He worked to a 5.13 ERA, striking out just 10.6% of batters faced, before being outrighted off the 40-man roster.
• Dillon Peters (31): Peters spent this past season as a swing option for the Pirates. He tossed 39 1/3 innings across 22 games (four starts), working to a 4.58 ERA with a 15.8% strikeout rate despite averaging a personal-best 92.5 MPH on his sinker.
• Chasen Shreve (32): Shreve has flashed swing-and-miss potential throughout his career, and he fanned a solid 25.8% of opponents with the Mets this year. He was tagged for six home runs in just 26 1/3 innings en route to a 6.49 ERA, however, sitting below 91 MPH with his fastball. The Mets cut him loose in mid-July, and he finished the season in Triple-A with the Yankees.

Players With Club Options

• Will Smith, Astros hold $13MM option, $1MM buyout

Houston acquired Smith in a deadline swap that sent Jake Odorizzi to the Braves. Strike-throwing issues had contributed to a 4.38 ERA in Atlanta, but he righted the ship upon landing in Houston. Smith posted a 3.27 ERA with an above-average 26.7% strikeout rate and an excellent 4.4% walk percentage through 22 innings in Houston. He’s gotten whiffs on an incredible 17.3% of his offerings as an Astro and has allowed just 11 of the 46 left-handed hitters he’s faced to reach base (.239 OBP). It’s a $12MM decision for Houston, and that’s likely to go beyond their comfort zone given his ups and downs in Atlanta, particularly as they see a number of key players hit free agency. If he’s bought out, however, Smith will be one of the better left-handed options in the class. He also has a fair bit of closing experience, so teams shouldn’t have any trepidation about entrusting him with high-leverage plate appearances.

• Justin Wilson, Reds hold $1.22MM option

Wilson exercised a $2.3MM player option to return to the Reds this past season. His deal contained a provision that tacked on a 2023 club option for $500K north of the league minimum if he triggered that player option, so the Reds will have a chance to bring him back for a modest $1.22MM next year. Even that seems unlikely, as the veteran underwent Tommy John surgery in June. He won’t be ready until late in the ’23 campaign at the earliest and could plausibly miss the entire season.

Previous installments:Catcher, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop, Corner outfields, Center Field, Designated Hitter, Starting Pitcher