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Offseason In Review: Detroit Tigers

By | at February 27, 2023 2:40pm CDT

A Murphy’s Law season in 2022 led to a period of transition for the Tigers. The club parted ways with general manager Al Avila in August, and now-former Giants GM Scott Harris was hired as president of baseball operations about six weeks later. Many expected the first offseason of the Harris tenure to be modest as he took time to get to know the organizations and its personnel. That largely proved to be true, with just a pair of major league deals, though there were also a couple of significant trades and the club was active in using the waiver wire to add depth.

Major League Signings

2022 spending: $18.5MM
Total spending: $18.5MM

Option Decisions

Trades and claims

Extensions

  • None

Notable Minor League Signees

Notable Losses

The Tigers have been rebuilding for some time, with the nadir coming in a 114-loss season in 2019. Some signs of optimism appeared in 2021 with a strong second half and a final record just under .500. The club decided to push chips in with an aggressive offseason, signing Javier Báez, Eduardo Rodriguez and Andrew Chafin. Unfortunately, just about everything went wrong, with most of the pitching staff and many lineup regulars missing significant chunks of time or falling short of expectations. It was decided drastic change was needed, which resulted in a change in the front office as Harris replaced Avila.

Given the optimism surrounding the 2022 club, perhaps there could have been an argument for continued in aggression in building around the existing core. The problem is that some of the setbacks from last year will rolling into this year. Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal are set to miss significant chunks of the upcoming season due to Tommy John surgery and flexor tendon surgery, respectively. Then there were many players who were expected to be core performers that disappointed enough in 2022 to raise question marks about their future trajectories and perhaps alter projections. With those factors, and the fact that most new front office hires generally take some time to get acquainted with their new organizations before making bold moves, the offseason tended towards the modest side.

As part of that modesty, only two free agent were given major league deals this winter. Matthew Boyd and Michael Lorenzen were each given one-year deals to fill the rotation spots vacated by Mize and Skubal. Each player is coming off a somewhat encouraging season. Boyd missed close to a year due to flexor tendon surgery but returned to toss 13 1/3 innings of relief with a 1.35 ERA. He’ll be looking to return to a starting role this year now that he was able to have a normal and healthy offseason. Lorenzen attempted to returning to starting last year after many years as a reliever. He posted a solid 4.24 ERA but missed time due to injury and only made 18 starts. Ideally, he’ll be able to build off that larger workload and push himself even farther this year.

Other than those rotation swaps, the area of the roster that will be the most changed will be the bullpen. Michael Fulmer was traded at the deadline last year, Andrew Chafin hit free agency and signed with the Diamondbacks, while Joe Jiménez and Gregory Soto were traded to Atlanta and Philadelphia, respectively. The relief corps was the one bright spot from the dismal 2022 season, but with the volatility of relievers, there’s some sense to selling high from that group. That will leave the club with a bullpen lacking experience, with José Cisnero and Tyler Alexander the only relievers on the 40-man into their arbitration years. Some non-roster invitees like Matt Wisler or Chasen Shreve could join them, but it will likely be a greener group on the whole. There will be opportunities for younger players to take steps forward, with Alex Lange, Jason Foley and Will Vest some of the candidates. Lange, in particular, seems set for a high-leverage role.

But subtracting from the bullpen has allowed the Tigers to add to their position player mix, a group that severely disappointed last year. The Soto deal brought in some major league-ready talent in Nick Maton, Matt Vierling and Donny Sands. All three have made their major league debuts but without truly establishing themselves. Vierling had a nice debut in 2021 but hit at a subpar level last year. Maton had a nice showing in 2022, but in just 35 games due to his part-time role. Sands only got into three MLB games last year but hit very well in the minors. All three of them probably deserved a longer audition but would have struggled to find it on a win-now Phillies team. With Detroit team in evaluation mode, their chances of a lengthy opportunity are greater.

Maton could replace the non-tendered Jeimer Candelario as the club’s everyday third baseman, though he’ll have competition from Ryan Kreidler and other offseason acquisitions like Tyler Nevin or Andy Ibáñez. Vierling will be in the mix for outfield duty alongside Akil Baddoo, Riley Greene and Austin Meadows, all of whom are coming off frustrating seasons to varying degrees. Kerry Carpenter figures to be in there as well after his strong debut last year. Notably, Vierling’s right-handed bat pairs quite well with that all-left-handed group, and can play all three outfield spots.

The Jimenez trade was more of a long-term play, as neither Justyn-Henry Malloy nor Jake Higginbotham have reached the majors yet. Malloy could vault himself into either the third base or corner outfield competition, though he’s likely behind the aforementioned names. He reached Triple-A last year, but it was merely an eight-game cameo in September. Since he’s not on the 40-man, he’ll likely head back to that level, at least to start the season.

In addition to those two signings and two significant bullpen trades, the club was quite active on the waiver wire. Harris seems to have brought over that tactic from the Giants, where he was previously employed, as San Francisco has shown a tendency to make numerous claims and subsequently attempt to pass players through waivers later. The Tigers have followed this path in recent months, grabbing many players off the wire and subsequently squeezing them off the roster in order to improve depth.

All of these new faces will likely be part of a large wait-and-see season that includes the incumbent players, most of whom will be looking to return to form after a down season. Boyd and Lorenzen will have rotation jobs alongside Eduardo Rodriguez, Spencer Turnbull and Matt Manning. Rodriguez missed significant time last year due to a personal absence and a ribcage strain. He was only able to make 17 starts. Shoulder and forearm injuries limited Manning to just 12 starts. Turnbull missed the entire season due to 2021 Tommy John surgery.

On the position player side of things, Meadows, Baddoo, Javier Baez, Jonathan Schoop, Spencer Torkelson and others will be looking to recover after their respective 2022 seasons saw them either miss significant time and/or play poorly. There’s plenty of talent in this group but many question marks after so many things went wrong a season ago. Things would look great if they could all turn things around, but the odds of everyone simultaneously rebounding are quite long.

As the months roll along, the club’s future plans will hopefully become clearer, based on who performs well this season and who doesn’t. In addition to all the performance uncertainty, Baez and Rodriguez both have opt-outs after this year. It doesn’t feel especially likely that either one would be in a position to trigger those, but a return to form could change that calculus. In addition to those two, Boyd, Lorenzen, Schoop and Cisnero are impending free agents after this year. Unless the club is a surprise contender this summer, they will likely be looking to make more deals at the deadline. Those players headed to free agency would be logical candidates if they are playing well, as would Turnbull or Meadows, who are free agents after 2024.

There’s also the matter of Miguel Cabrera, who will be turning 40 in April. He’s entering the final guaranteed season of the extension he and the club signed in 2014. There are $30MM club/vesting options for 2024 and 2025, though those won’t come to pass. He needs to finish in the top 10 in MVP voting this year to vest the option, whereas the team would much rather pay the $8MM buyout at this point. Though he’s one of the greatest hitters of this century, Cabrera hasn’t been above average at the plate over a full season since 2016, with chronic right knee pain and a ruptured biceps tendon among the injuries that have dragged him down with the passage of time.

It remains to be seen how much playing time Cabrera will get. He admits this is likely to be his last season, but the club will surely want to give significant at-bats to all the aforementioned younger players. If he does stay healthy and in the lineup, there will be some attention paid to his place on all-time milestone lists. His 3,088 hits place him 25th on the all-time list with nine players less than 100 ahead of him. His 507 home runs are 27th all-time and just six more long balls would allow him to jump up four more spots. One of the spots on the Detroit roster will seemingly be evoking memories of the past, but the majority of the remaining spots are dedicated to the future.

How would you grade the Tigers’ offseason? (Link to poll)

How would you grade the Tigers' offseason?

  • D 35% (1,091)
  • C 33% (1,026)
  • F 19% (592)
  • B 10% (311)
  • A 2% (69)

Total votes: 3,089

In conjunction with the Tigers’ offseason review, we held a Tigers-focused chat on Feb. 28. You can click here to read the transcript.

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2022-23 Offseason In Review Detroit Tigers MLBTR Originals

Offseason In Review: Oakland Athletics

By | at February 24, 2023 11:55am CDT

In conjunction with the A’s offseason review, we’ll be hosting an A’s-focused chat later this afternoon at 2pm CT. You can submit a question in advance, and check back to participate at 2:00.

The A’s began the offseason with a changing of the guard in baseball operations, as longtime executive vice president of baseball ops Billy Beane shifted into an advisory role and turned autonomy over to general manager David Forst. The A’s probably spent more in free agency than some expected — a low bar to clear — but they continued to trade away established talent with an eye toward the future. Whether that future will be in Oakland, Las Vegas or another city remains an open question; the team’s current stadium lease expires after the 2024 season and there’s been no agreement with the city of Oakland on a site for a new stadium.

Major League Signings

Option Decisions

  • None

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Heading into the offseason, the A’s were in a virtually unprecedented spot: zero dollars in guaranteed salary on the 2023 payroll, a small arbitration class (that featured a few trade/non-tender candidates) and very little in the way of established big leaguers on the roster. It was a blank slate that both lent itself to some degree of creativity and also spoke to the dire situation in Oakland, where the initial stages of a fire sale designed to scale back payroll and build up the farm had only succeeded in the former of those two goals.

The possibility of a Sean Murphy trade loomed large over the Athletics’ offseason and dominated A’s-related headlines throughout the winter. It’s easy enough to see why. Murphy has cemented himself as one of the game’s top defenders behind the plate, and he jumped from a roughly average showing with the bat in 2021 to a well above-average year in 2022 (with a particularly strong finish to the season). Add in that he entered the offseason as a first-time arbitration-eligible player with three remaining years of club control, and there simply weren’t many teams where Murphy didn’t make sense as a target.

Despite that, Murphy arguably landed on one of those very clubs that didn’t appear to be a logical suitor. Though the Cardinals, D-backs, Giants, Astros, Cubs, Guardians, White Sox, Twins and Rays were among the teams to inquire on Murphy’s services, it was the Braves — who already had three catchers on the roster — who wound up orchestrating a three-team trade to bring Murphy to Atlanta.

Oakland’s return in the Murphy trade has generally been panned; the Braves were not only a surprise trade partner for Murphy due to their own catching surplus (Travis d’Arnaud, William Contreras, Manny Pina) but also because their prior series of trades and prospect graduations had thinned out a once-vaunted farm system. Atlanta was willing to part with Contreras, who broke out with a .278/.354/.506 batting line over 97 games in 2022 and had five remaining seasons of club control, largely because Murphy is viewed as a vastly superior defender. Rather than accept Contreras as a headliner, though, the A’s flipped him to Milwaukee (along with reliever Joel Payamps) in order to acquire center field prospect Esteury Ruiz, whom the Brewers had acquired from the Padres a few months prior in the Josh Hader blockbuster.

The Murphy return is generally viewed as a quantity-over-quality collection of players. Ruiz brings elite speed — he stole a ridiculous 86 bases in 103 tries in 2022 — but doesn’t have much ability for making hard contact. Muller has solid Triple-A numbers but hasn’t had much success in limited big league time yet and is considered more of a potential fourth starter than a higher-end pitching prospect. The other arms in the deal — Freddy Tarnok and Royber Salinas — have had success in the minors but also come with a fair bit of bullpen risk. It wouldn’t necessarily be a surprise to see any of the three pitchers enjoy a run in the A’s rotation, nor is it out of the question that Ruiz’s blazing speed and baserunning acumen make him a table-setting type of outfielder for the foreseeable future.

Still, the general expectation when trading a player of Murphy’s caliber — particularly three years of control over such a player — is more certainty and more ceiling. The Athletics have had success with bulk returns that don’t necessarily feature high-end prospects in the past (e.g. acquiring Marcus Semien, Chris Bassitt and Josh Phegley in exchange for a year of Jeff Samardzija), in part because they seem to habitually buck the industry consensus when it comes to prospect evaluation. Part of that is surely recognizing that the unique dimensions of their home park tend to allow back-end starters (Cole Irvin, for example) to find success even if they’re not prototypical, highly touted pitching prospects.

Speaking of Irvin, he joined Murphy amid the latest offseason exodus in Oakland. Traded to the Orioles alongside minor league righty Kyle Virbitsky, he brought infield prospect Darell Hernaiz to the A’s. Irvin wasn’t a clear-cut trade candidate, as he had four years of team control remaining and wasn’t even eligible for arbitration yet, but the A’s surely feel good about acquiring him in exchange for cash in 2021 and flipping him for a prospect of some note just two years later. Keith Law pegs Hernaiz No. 6 among A’s prospects over at The Athletic, calling him a potential regular at second base or a super-utility option who can bounce around the infield. Either would be a nice outcome for an Oakland system that was light on infield depth.

It should be noted, too, that Irvin is a pitch-to-contact starter who’s thrived with the A’s partly due to the spacious confines of the Coliseum. He has pronounced home/road splits and has been quite susceptible to the long ball when pitching away from Oakland. He also finished out the 2022 season in a prolonged slump, and there was certainly risk that with a poor start to his 2023 season or an injury, the trade value he possessed might’ve quickly dried up.

The third notable A’s trade of the offseason shipped lefty A.J. Puk to the Marlins in exchange for minor league outfielder JJ Bleday. It was a “challenge” trade to some extent — a direct swap of the 2016 No. 6 overall pick (Puk) for the 2019 No. 4 overall selection (Bleday).

In this instance, the A’s gave up the player with big league success in order to acquire the younger, more recent draftee, but it was another somewhat curious swap for Oakland. The 6’7″ Puk rattled off 66 1/3 innings of 3.12 ERA ball in 2022, fanning a well above-average 27% of his opponents against a solid 8.2% walk rate and 43.4% ground-ball rate. Five of the 23 runs surrendered by Puk came in one nightmare outing against the White Sox, and his ERA outside that disastrous showing was an even sharper 2.47. Puk may not ever pan out as a starter — he’s already had shoulder surgery and Tommy John surgery since being drafted, and that injury history surely factored in Oakland’s decision to trade him — but he at least looks the part of a potential high-end reliever.

Bleday, meanwhile, is a career .225/.337/.409 hitter across three minor league levels with strikeout rates that have risen as he’s ascended the organizational ladder. He’s punched out in 27% of his Triple-A plate appearances and fanned at a 28.2% clip in 238 big league plate appearances last year, finishing with a .167/.277/.309 output in his debut effort. Bleday walks at a high clip but doesn’t make much contact and hasn’t shown more than above-average power to this point.

The Marlins have spent two offseasons looking for a center fielder and, despite coming up empty, felt comfortable trading Bleday, who has spent more time in center field than in the corners to this point in his career. The A’s are making a big bet on Bleday. We know the type of packages a southpaw like Puk could command at the trade deadline if he’s healthy and in the midst of a big season. One of these two teams is quite wrong about Bleday, and for the A’s to reverse their trend of underwhelming trade returns over the past calendar year, it’s paramount that they got this one right.

The rest of Oakland’s offseason featured a handful of sensible free-agent additions. Aledmys Diaz and Jace Peterson give the A’s some affordable infield flexibility — veterans who can hold down a starting position but handle multiple spots if a younger farmhand usurps their spot in the lineup. Peterson’s OBP-and-defense skill set at the hot corner, in particular, feels like a vintage Oakland play. Neither veteran’s signing garnered significant attention, but they’re solid hands who could easily hold some trade appeal — particularly Peterson, given his lower salary.

The Athletics also tapped into the KBO and NPB markets, signing righties Drew Rucinski and Shintaro Fujinami to cheap one-year contracts in hopes of catching lightning in a bottle. At 34, Rucinski is an older MLB reclamation project but has been nothing short of sensational in South Korea (732 2/3 innings, 3.06 ERA, 21.5% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate, 66% ground-ball rate). The younger Fujinami is a 28-year-old flamethrower who was once a high school rival of Shohei Ohtani (and a similarly touted prospect). He was dominant as a starter early in his NPB career but has battled command woes in recent years as his stock has dropped. For a one-year commitment at this price point, there’s little to dislike about the A’s taking a chance and hoping to unlock something in the 6’6″ right-hander.

One-year deals with Trevor May and Jesus Aguilar give the A’s a potential late-game bullpen option and a cheap roll of the dice on a power bat who’ll hope to turn things around in a change of scenery. May limped through an injury-plagued 2022 season but from 2016-21 had a solid 3.71 ERA with a massive 32.2% strikeout rate. Home runs have been an issue, but his new home park will help with that. Aguilar, meanwhile, is no stranger to pitcher-friendly parks, having swatted 22 homers in just 130 games with the Marlins as recently as 2021. Last year’s .235/.281/.379 slash was an eyesore, but dating back to 2017 he’s a .257/.326/.456 hitter with 109 round-trippers.

While many of the Athletics’ free-agent additions were sensible in a vacuum, they also underscore the manner in which the 2021-22 offseason’s slate of trades has come up short thus far. None of the pitching prospects the A’s acquired in trades of Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Chris Bassitt and Sean Manaea has solidified a spot on the roster yet, despite several arms receiving opportunities to do just that. Left-hander Zach Logue, acquired in the Chapman deal, was designated for assignment and lost to the Tigers on waivers less than a year after being acquired.

In the lineup, both center fielder Cristian Pache and third baseman Kevin Smith struggled enormously. Pache is now out of minor league options after batting just .166/.218/.241 in 260 plate appearances with Oakland last year. He’ll have to try to refine his offensive skill set at the big league level, but with Ruiz and Bleday now joining veteran Ramon Laureano, it’s not entirely clear that Pache will be given an everyday role, which only further complicates his development.

Broadly speaking, that’s a microcosm of the entire 2023 season for the A’s. It’ll be one of large-scale auditions for young players as Oakland hopes to piece together the makings of a core that unfortunately did not begin to take form in 2022. The only somewhat established starter in the rotation is righty Paul Blackburn, who had an out-of-the-blue, All-Star first half in 2022 before a torn tendon in his hand tanked his numbers in the second half. Others vying for spots will include Rucinski, Fujinami, Muller, Tarnok, Ken Waldichuk, Adrian Martinez, JP Sears and James Kaprielian.

In addition to Pache, Bleday and Ruiz in the outfield, the A’s will hope some combination of catcher Shea Langeliers (acquired in the Olson trade) and top prospect Zack Gelof (drafted 60th overall in 2021) can emerge as mainstays on the roster. Shortstop Nick Allen, a light hitter but high-end defender, will get another crack at shortstop, and the aforementioned Smith will likely get a big league mulligan at some point somewhere in the infield as well.

As the summer approaches, more A’s veterans will surface in trade talks. Expect each of Blackburn, Pina, Laureano, second baseman/outfielder Tony Kemp, first baseman/outfielder Seth Brown to surface in trade chatter this summer along with this offseason’s veteran signees — particularly those who inked one-year deals.

It’s a tough time for A’s fans, with no viable path to contention and — despite the gutting of a core that helped produce a 316-230 record from 2018-21 — one of the worst-ranked farm systems in the game. There will be plenty of opportunity for young players, and some of the veteran additions will help, but year two of the team’s rebuild feels a lot more like year one than it should.

How would you grade the Athletics’ offseason? (Link to poll)

How would you grade the Athletics' offseason?

  • F 34% (1,065)
  • D 32% (1,000)
  • C 23% (736)
  • B 8% (244)
  • A 3% (102)

Total votes: 3,147

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2022-23 Offseason In Review Athletics MLBTR Originals

The Marlins’ Battle For Playing Time Behind The Plate

By | at February 23, 2023 11:49pm CDT

This past offseason marked the second straight winter in which the Marlins made a series of moves in hopes of upgrading the lineup. By and large, their set of transactions over the 2021-22 offseason didn’t pan out as hoped. Among those who had a tough first year in South Florida was backstop Jacob Stallings.

Stallings was a late-blooming regular for a couple seasons with the Pirates. He didn’t garner significant MLB playing time until 2019, his age-29 season. Once given the opportunity, Stallings developed into a solid primary catcher. Over a three-year stretch between 2019-21, he hit .251/.331/.374 in a little less than 800 plate appearances. That was a little better than the .233/.308/.399 line compiled by catchers overall. Stallings was a bit below-average from a power perspective but posted stronger on-base numbers than the typical backstop.

He’d paired that respectable offense with elite receiving behind the plate. Public pitch framing metrics loved Stallings’ work. He wasn’t charged with a single passed ball in 892 innings in 2021. While he wasn’t great at controlling the running game, he looked like one of the sport’s top pure receivers.

Considering those two-way contributions, it was understandable the Fish targeted Stallings to solidify their catching situation. The acquisition cost was fairly modest; they relinquished depth starter Zach Thompson and mid-level prospects Kyle Nicolas and Connor Scott for three arbitration seasons of their hopeful #1 catcher. Unfortunately for the Fish, Stallings’ production cratered on both sides of the ball.

The right-handed hitter posted a career-worst .223/.292/.292 line through 384 trips to the plate. His already modest power went backwards. Stallings managed just four home runs and posted his lowest hard contact rate (32%) since becoming a regular. That diminished contact quality also resulted in a .280 batting average on balls in play that was .025 points below the mark he carried between 2019-21. Stallings’ strike zone discipline remained intact; he made contact and continued to generally lay off pitches outside the zone. He just simply didn’t do enough damage on batted balls to make an offensive impact.

That offensive drop-off wouldn’t have been quite so alarming if it hadn’t been paired with a bizarre dip in Stallings’ pitch framing numbers. Statcast graded him as seven runs below average in that regard, his first subpar season after three consecutive years of plus marks. Stallings remarkably posted another flawless year with regards to avoid passed balls but didn’t have his typical level of success stealing strikes on the edges of the zone.

Teams also took more advantage of his middling arm strength than they had in years past. No catcher was behind the plate for more successful stolen bases than Stallings, who saw opponents swipe 61 bags in 75 attempts (an excellent 81.3% success rate). Stolen bases aren’t solely on the catcher — pitchers’ times to the plate plays a significant role — but Statcast rated Stallings’ arm strength below par.

That could take on added importance in 2023. MLB is introducing rules such as the limitation on pickoff attempts and larger bases designed to incentivize base-stealing. Stallings seems unlikely to develop above-average arm strength in his age-33 season. Keeping the running game in check figures to be a challenge yet again, which places a greater emphasis on Stallings to return to peak form in the areas of his game that have historically been his strength.

He’ll need to more closely approximate his offensive production and framing marks from his final couple seasons in Pittsburgh to serve as the caliber of upgrade Miami believed they were getting 12 months ago. To his credit, Stallings had a decent second half offensively after a terrible start to the year, though he’ll need to sustain that over a full season this time around.

General manager Kim Ng and her staff seem bullish on his chances of righting the ship. There was little indication Miami seriously looked outside the organization for catching help this offseason. They avoided arbitration with Stallings, signing him for $3.35MM. He presumably heads into Spring Training atop the depth chart for a second time, though he could face some internal pressure if he starts the season slowly.

26-year-old Nick Fortes has put himself on the radar after a quietly effective rookie season. The Ole Miss product made a 14-game cameo at the tail end of the 2021 campaign. Last season was his first extended MLB action, and Fortes impressed. He hit .230/.304/.392 with nine home runs and a modest 18.8% strikeout rate over 240 trips to the plate. Fortes demonstrated both above-average contact skills and solid batted ball metrics, showing the potential to be an interesting offensive option.

Fortes logged 441 innings behind the plate last season, rating fairly well in the eyes of public defensive metrics. Statcast pegged him as a roughly average pitch framer with above-average arm strength. Fortes threw out 28.6% of base-stealers, a solid clip. After committing four passed balls in just 44 innings in 2021, he was charged with only one passed ball last season. It was a solid all-around showing that earned the former fourth-rounder a near equal split in playing time with Stallings from the All-Star Break onwards. Still, with just 86 career games under his belt, he’ll need to prove he can continue performing over a larger sample.

The duo will continue jostling for playing time this season. Stallings and Fortes are the only two catchers on the 40-man roster, with Miami dealing Payton Henry to Milwaukee at the start of the offseason. Austin Allen is in camp as a non-roster invitee but figures to open the year in Triple-A Jacksonville barring injury. How to allocate playing time behind the dish is one of the bigger questions for first-year manager Skip Schumaker. Stallings figures to get the lion’s share of time early in hopes of a rebound, though it remains to be seen how long the leash would be if he struggles after Fortes’ solid 2022 campaign.

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MLBTR Originals Miami Marlins

Offseason In Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

By | at February 23, 2023 11:12am CDT

The rebuilding Pirates had a fairly similar offseason to the one they had a year ago. The trade chatter for Bryan Reynolds continued, but nothing came to fruition. In the end, it was another winter of bringing aboard veterans on short-term deals to fill out the young and inexperienced roster. Those vets will hopefully make the team a bit better, mentor the youngsters and perhaps turn into trade chips by midseason. The most notable of those new additions is actually a familiar face, with the Bucs bringing back a franchise icon who’s been away for a few years.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $30.375MM
Total spending: $30.375MM

Option Decisions

  • None

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signees

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Though it was a fairly modest offseason for the Bucs when comparing them to other clubs, this was on the aggressive side when compared to their own recent offseasons. The club only spent $16MM last offseason and $7.25MM in the previous two combined. Though their $30.375MM this winter isn’t exactly a spending spree compared to win-now clubs like the Mets or Padres, it was technically more than they themselves have spent in quite some time.

Among the players brought in to bolster the roster, the one that Pittsburgh fans are surely the most excited about is Andrew McCutchen. The 36-year-old spent the best years of his career as a Pirate, having been drafted by them in 2005 and playing for the big league club from 2009 to 2017. That tenure included winning 2013 NL MVP, five All-Star selections and playoff berths in three straight years from 2013-2015, their only postseason trips in the last 30 years.

Though many of the club’s acquisitions will be viewed as future trade candidates, it seems McCutchen won’t be in the same bucket. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported last month that the idea is for McCutchen to stay in Pittsburgh for the rest of his career. It’s possible that a situation arises where a World Series contender wants him and gives the team a call, but Mackey’s reporting indicates that a trade will only come to fruition if Cutch wants to take the opportunity to get a ring.

The other new faces will be a different story. The past two seasons have seen the Pirates add a veteran arm to their starting rotation and flip them at the deadline for prospects. It was Tyler Anderson in 2021 and José Quintana last year. For 2023, both Rich Hill and Vince Velasquez have been signed to one-year deals and each could potentially follow the same path as Anderson and Quintana. Hill is about to turn 43 years old but still made 26 starts last year with a 4.27 ERA. Velasquez has occasionally seemed on the verge of establishing himself as a solid major league starter, but he’s also faltered and been moved to the bullpen on multiple occasions.

The bullpen saw one similar addition in Jarlín García. He’s been with the Giants the past three years, posting solid results. From 2020 to 2022, he made 135 appearances with a 2.84 ERA, 22.5% strikeout rate, 7.0% walk rate and 40.5% ground ball rate. He’s probably not quite as good as that ERA would indicate, given his .246 BABIP in that time, but he still registered a 3.90 FIP and 3.76 SIERA. Nonetheless, the Giants non-tendered him instead of paying him a projected $2.4MM arbitration salary, and the Pirates swooped in to give him $2.5MM. Like Hill and Velasquez, he could find himself on the trade block this summer if he’s pitching well, though the Bucs have a club option for 2024 and could keep him around for another season.

The other new face for the bullpen will be Jose Hernandez, but like all Rule 5 picks, he’ll have to justify his roster spot or else be put on waivers and then offered back to his original club. The 25-year-old split last year between High-A and Double-A in the Dodgers’ system, posting a 3.32 ERA in 59 2/3 innings with a 27.8% strikeout rate but a 10.1% walk rate.

On the position player side of things, in addition to McCutchen, the club brought in Ji-Man Choi, Carlos Santana and Austin Hedges. Choi is in his final arbitration year and will be a free agent at season’s end, while Santana and Hedges both signed one-year deals. Catcher and first base were both quite unsettled for the club last year, as Roberto Pérez went down with an early injury and the  Yoshi Tsutsugo gamble didn’t pay off.

Hedges doesn’t hit much but has long been considered one of the best defensive catchers in the league, while Santana and Choi give the club a couple of fairly steady veterans for their first base and designated hitter slots. Like the pitching acquisitions, any of these names could be on the move in the summer if the club wants to make room for younger players. The same could be said for veterans on minor league deals like Kevin Plawecki, Tyler Chatwood or Tyler Heineman, should they crack the roster at some point.

Unsurprisingly, it seems it will be another season about the potential young core for the rebuilding Pirates. Hill and Velasquez are fine additions, but the main focus in the rotation will be on more controllable players. Both Mitch Keller and JT Brubaker showed some encouraging results last year and can be controlled through the 2025 season. Roansy Contreras and Luis Ortiz have also had some exciting results and have yet to reach a year of service time, meaning they’re not slated to reach free agency until after 2028 at the earliest. There are also yet-to-debut prospects like Quinn Priester, Mike Burrows, Jared Jones, Kyle Nicolas, among others. The bullpen will be led by David Bednar, who seems to have established himself as a lock-down closer and isn’t slated for free agency until after the 2026 campaign.

Hedges should be a fine steward of those young arms, but he will also likely be tasked with ushering in young catching prospects like Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis. McCutchen, Santana and Choi will join a position player mix of youngsters who are still developing, such as Oneil Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Ji Hwan Bae, Jack Suwinski, Rodolfo Castro and Calvin Mitchell. That group will be looking to cement themselves before another wave of prospects arrives, one that includes Termarr Johnson, Nick Gonzales, Jared Triolo and Liover Peguero. Recent acquisition Connor Joe can jump into that mix as well.

The 2023 season, and perhaps beyond, will help the club examine key questions about that group of young players. Cruz has elite tools,, but can he cut down his strikeouts and prove himself a viable shortstop? Hayes is an elite defender at third, but can he take a step forward at the plate? Which of Rodriguez or Davis will step up as the catcher of the future? Could it be both, in a time-share setting? Can any of the others emerge as true everyday options, or are they more role players?

Hovering over all of this is the great unanswered Bryan Reynolds question. He’s hit 74 home runs over the past four seasons and cemented himself as an above-average outfielder in the major leagues. He’s now down to three years of club control, seeming to put the club in a position where they have to make a move one way or another. They could certainly return to contention in that timeframe, but it would be wise to figure out a way to better align him with their future window of contention. That means either giving him an extension that keeps him around longer or trading him for younger and more controllable players.

That has put Reynolds in trade rumors for quite some time, though the club has reportedly set a sky-high asking price. The fact that no deal has come together suggests that they are willing to stick to it. The extension talks didn’t seem to gain much traction this offseason either, as the player and the club were reportedly about $50MM apart in those discussions. That led to Reynolds requesting a trade, though that apparently did nothing to nudge the front office any closer to striking a deal. Reynolds recently stated that he’s still open to an extension, as long as it’s a fair deal, but there’s been nothing to suggest anything is particularly close on that front. The two sides could well revisit those talks later this spring, but a $50MM gap is a particularly large chasm to bridge for a club with the Pirates’ annual payroll levels.

Perhaps the upcoming campaign will dictate how the club proceeds. If the Pirates can have a season similar to the Orioles last year and suddenly seem like the rebuild is over, maybe they decide to plunk down some money and keep Reynolds around. Then again, by that point, the asking price may be even higher. Conversely, if they have a year like the 2022 Royals where there’s not as much development as hoped, perhaps they’ll choose a different path and more earnestly look to move Reynolds as one of the final pieces of business in their current rebuilding effort. There’s lots of exciting young talent in the system and reasons to feel good about the future, but still many questions to be answered.

How would you grade the Pirates’ offseason? (Link to poll)

How would you grade the Pirates' offseason?

  • C 38% (998)
  • B 25% (657)
  • D 21% (563)
  • F 13% (335)
  • A 4% (100)

Total votes: 2,653

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Pirates-centric live chat on Feb. 23. Click here to read the transcript.

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2022-23 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals Pittsburgh Pirates

The MLB Trade Rumors Arbitration Model Had Its Best Year Ever

By | at February 22, 2023 9:36pm CDT

With the last of the arbitration hearings officially in the books, we can now officially report that this was the most accurate year that the MLB Trade Rumors Arbitration Model has ever had. The model estimated salaries within ten percent of salaries for 69% of cases – breaking the previous record of 65% and well above the 54% low point just three years ago.

When I began working on this model way back in 2011, I defined success based on how often my model was within ten percent of the actual arbitration salary for all arbitration-eligible players who signed one-year deals. The initial goal was to be within ten percent for half of such cases. For the 2011-12 arbitration season, the model was within ten percent on 55% of all cases. The model has consistently been in that range or higher, peaking at 65% in the 2014-15 arbitration season, while only dipping below it once with 54% in 2019-20. It averaged 58% over its first nine years. 

Over that time, I repeatedly ran tests on the model, considered new modeling techniques, and had discussions with agents and others with experience in the arbitration space about how to improve the model. There were steps forward, although after picking each piece of low-hanging fruit, the gains were smaller. Ultimately, I pivoted to a focus on more accurate and cleaner data. This was initially something that Bryan Grosnick helped with behind the scenes, and Darragh McDonald took over last year. They both helped tremendously. 

One important process change that I incorporated into model updates in recent years is checking which players would have been the “biggest misses” after updating the model. In many cases, the salaries that “missed” were not reflective of the actual salaries earned. Yet the model was awkwardly contorting itself to fit those purported outcomes. Some of the process of improving data quality was just a matter of finding typos. But in many cases, it was about correctly identifying the “true” arbitration salary a player received. When players avoid arbitration via settlement, they often get performance bonuses, signing bonuses, options for future years, or multi-year agreements. These cases are incorporated into the modeling process where appropriate, but sometimes the “salary” a player literally earned was not really intended to account for the actual arbitration award he would have gotten at a hearing. Cleaning the data involved some subjectivity, but it was designed to better record the intended salary that teams and agents were treating as a baseline when they negotiated more complicated agreements.

More tedious updates to data accuracy are not the most thrilling part of model building. Coming up with creative mathematical methods or just innovative variables to utilize is a more rewarding intellectual exercise for the researcher. But the truth is that better data is often more important than a slightly smarter model. I will continue to evolve the model based on the relevant statistics and factors utilized in the arbitration process, but in recent years I ultimately improved the model more with better data without structuring it differently.

As a result, the model should be more accurate in future years than it has been in the past. See below for a graph showing the performance of the model each year.

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The Rangers’ Multi-Inning Relief Weapon

By | at February 21, 2023 11:17pm CDT

The Rangers spent most of last year out of playoff contention, in significant part due to an inability to win close games. Texas finished 26 games under .500 despite a relatively modest -36 run differential, with a staggering 15-35 record in one-run contests dooming any chance they had of sticking around the periphery of the Wild Card race.

Any time a team is that bad in close games, it’s safe to assume they were victimized by a lack of clutch hitting. That was true of Texas, although their struggles also reflected a middling relief corps. Ranger relievers finished 21st in strikeout/walk rate differential and tied for sixth in blown saves (28). Nevertheless, the Rangers shied away from any splashy additions to the bullpen this winter. They instead poured virtually all their resources into completely overhauling the starting rotation.

That’s a strong show of faith in the club’s internal bullpen options. It’s a relatively young group but one that has a few players coming off strong 2022 seasons. Hard-throwing righties José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández returned from Tommy John rehabs to impress down the stretch. Meanwhile, left-hander Brock Burke quietly put forth an excellent year as a multi-inning weapon.

Burke underwent a significant surgery of his own a few years back. He’d debuted in the big leagues with six unsuccessful starts in 2019 and required a procedure to fix a labrum tear in his throwing shoulder the ensuing offseason. Burke would’ve missed the entire ’20 season regardless of whether a full schedule were played. He returned to health in 2021 but spent the whole year on optional assignment to Triple-A Round Rock.

When he took the mound for his 2022 debut on April 10, it represented his first big league outing in two and a half years. The Rangers unsurprisingly deployed him in mostly low-stakes innings for the season’s first month. After posting a 20:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio through the end of April, Burke increasingly found himself in more meaningful game states. He’d remain a consistent weapon throughout the year, posting an ERA below 4.00 in each month — including a sub-3.00 mark for the first four months of the season.

Called upon 52 times, Burke soaked up an MLB-leading 82 1/3 innings of relief. No reliever faced more than the 328 batters that stepped in against him. Despite frequently going into a second inning, Burke remained very productive on a per-batter basis. He held opponents to a putrid .211/.275/.356 line, striking out an above-average 27.4% of batters faced with a solid 7.3% walk rate. He compiled a 1.97 ERA. Estimators like FIP and SIERA felt his production was more akin to that of a low-3.00’s ERA hurler, but even regression to that level would leave Burke as a quality high-leverage arm.

Now 26, Burke had been a solid prospect prior to his shoulder injury. Acquired from the Rays in the three-team deal that sent Jurickson Profar to Oakland over the 2018-19 offseason, he appeared among Texas’ top 30 farmhands at Baseball America over his first two years in the organization. Evaluators regarded him as a potential back-of-the-rotation starter, though his injury threw that off course. Burke told reporters (including Levi Weaver of the Athletic) over the offseason he was hopeful of getting another crack in the rotation. The Rangers’ activity in that regard rules that out, at least to open the year, and the former third-round draftee added he was content with whatever role he’s assigned.

The Rangers seem poised to count on him even more heavily out of the bullpen. General manager Chris Young left open the possibility of Burke getting some ninth-inning work for the first time in his career, though he suggested the multi-inning fireman role might be more valuable for first-year skipper Bruce Bochy. Young implied the team could look to get Burke as many as 100 innings of relief in 2023, a tally only once reached in MLB over the past decade (by then-Rays southpaw Ryan Yarbrough, who frequently operated as a bulk pitcher behind an opener, in 2018).

Whatever the role, it’s clear Burke has put himself among Texas’ most important relievers. The club watched Matt Moore sign with the division-rival Angels and lost Brett Martin for at least the bulk of the upcoming season to shoulder surgery. Taylor Hearn, John King and non-roster invitee Danny Duffy are still in the mix, but the Rangers’ left-handed bullpen contingent isn’t as strong as it was six months ago. Burke certainly won’t function in a lefty specialist capacity but is certain to get plenty of looks against opposing teams’ best hitters from either side of the dish. While that wasn’t the case at this time a year ago, he’s now entrenched in the bullpen after his breakout season.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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Examining The Cubs’ Fifth Starter Options

By | at February 21, 2023 10:38pm CDT

Longtime Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks is expected to begin the season on the injured list, setting the 2023 Opening Day roster in Chicago up to be the first one to not include a member of the 2016 World Series championship team since 2012 following the departure of Willson Contreras and Jason Heyward over the offseason. As fans on the north side of Chicago begin getting used to the new era of Cubs baseball, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer’s front office has an important question to answer this spring: who will take Hendricks’s turn in the rotation while he’s injured?

As manager David Ross told reporters, including the Chicago Tribune’s Meghan Montemurro, young righties Keegan Thompson and Adbert Alzolay do not figure into the club’s rotation plans, with both players expected to start the season as members of the bullpen. That still leaves plenty of options for the final spot in the Cubs’ rotation behind Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, and Drew Smyly, however. Two players in particular seem. to have the inside track toward the first crack at starting for the big league club in 2023:

Adrian Sampson

Perhaps the most likely contender for the role, the journeyman Sampson is entering his age-31 season with a strong chance at an extended look in the big leagues for just the third time in his career. Sampson’s tenure as a member of the Cubs began late in the 2021 season following a late August call-up. Across 10 appearances and five starts, Sampson pitched well, with a 2.80 ERA (152 ERA+) in his 35 1/3 innings of work. The underlying metrics didn’t feel so positively about his performance, however, as Sampson allowed a minuscule .232 BABIP and left a whopping 88.4% of runners on base despite over one in five of his fly balls allowed leaving the yard. Those red flags left him with a concerning 5.72 ERA, but the Cubs saw enough in Sampson to sign him to another minors deal for the 2022 season.

The 2022 season proved to be something of a revelation for Sampson after he received an opportunity in Chicago’s rotation following a slew of injuries. In 104 1/3 innings across 21 appearances (19 starts), Sampson pitched to a strong 3.11 ERA (132 ERA+) that, unlike the previous season, was more supported by underlying metrics. Sampson’s BABIP of .288 and LOB% of 77.6% both returned to figures far closer to his career norms of .299 and 76%, respectively, giving him a much more palatable 3.79 FIP on the season. Much of this improvement came from a drastically reduced home run rate, however, as Sampson saw just 7.7% of his fly balls allowed leave the yard during the 2022 campaign. That rate isn’t likely to be sustainable going forward, leaving a major red flag in Sampson’s profile entering the 2023 season.

Given his success in 2022 and the $1.9MM salary he agreed to for 2023 in a pre-tender deal with the Cubs, it would make plenty of sense if the veteran righty had the inside track to the fifth starter’s job to open the 2023 season even in spite of those concerns. That being said, Sampson still has a minor league option remaining, meaning he could be stashed in Triple-A as depth should he not make the Opening Day rotation. Furthermore, for a team like the Cubs with a handful of pitching prospects approaching the big leagues, it would be understandable for the organization to prioritize figuring out what they have in those youngsters over giving a journeyman like Sampson an extended run, even following his big league success in 2022.

Hayden Wesneski

One such pitching prospect is Wesneski, the right-hander the Cubs acquired from the Yankees at the 2022 trade deadline in exchange for sidearming reliever Scott Effross. Wesneski made his big league debut in September and found instant success, even throwing an immaculate inning during his late season cup of coffee. Overall, Wesneski pitched to a sterling 2.18 ERA (190 ERA+) over 33 innings. He also struck out a quarter of opponents with a meager 5.3% walk rate, leading to an excellent 3.20 FIP backing up his raw run prevention numbers.

This fantastic performance towards the end of the season has seen Wesneski generate considerable hype throughout the offseason, and he enters Spring Training as Sampson’s likely biggest challenger for the fifth starter role in Chicago. As previously mentioned, the Cubs have an assortment of interesting pitching prospects in the upper levels of their minor league system, including Caleb Kilian, Ben Brown, and DJ Herz. Given this reality, it would make plenty of sense for the Cubs to use these early season innings to get Wesneski more experience against big league pitching and see how the league adjusts to him following his strong debut.

However, with just four starts and six total appearances in the big leagues under his belt, it would be understandable if the Cubs wanted to take things slowly with Wesneski. After all, the righty just turned 25 years old and has multiple minor league option years remaining. Additionally, Wesneski’s 143 1/3 innings between Triple-A and the majors in 2022 was a career high, so it’s possible the Cubs will be keeping a close eye on his innings this season, while the club is still working towards a return to contention.

Other Options

While Sampson and Wesneski appear to be the front-runners for the job, there’s a few other players who seem likely to be in the mix for the fifth spot in Chicago’s Opening Day rotation. Ross specifically mentioned right-hander Javier Assad as a potential candidate. Assad, like Wesneski, is entering his age-25 season in 2023 and received a brief cup of coffee in the big leagues in 2022. Over 37 2/3 innings across nine appearances and eight starts, Assad pitched to a strong 3.11 ERA (133 ERA+), though his unimpressive 18.1% strikeout rate and concerning 12% walk rate leave plenty of room for concern, as demonstrated by his 4.49 FIP.

In addition to Assad, a pair of non-roster invitees could see consideration for a rotation spot. Nick Neidert spent his career as a member of the Mariners and Marlins organizations prior to signing with the Cubs on a minor league deal this offseason, and pitched well in 2022, both in 46 innings at the Triple-A level (1.96 ERA) and in a spot start for the Marlins in the big leagues (3.60 ERA over five innings), though he spent much of the season on the injured list.

Meanwhile, Roenis Elias has some success in the big leagues, with a career 3.96 ERA (98 ERA+) and 4.26 FIP in 395 2/3 innings of work in the big leagues. Elias also delivered a particularly strong performance in the Dominican Winter League this offseason, posting a fantastic 0.92 ERA in 39 innings of work. On the other hand, most of Elias’s recent big league experience has come out of the bullpen, with the lefty starting just 5 major league games since the start of the 2016 season. Both Elias and Assad are also set to pitch in the World Baseball Classic this spring, giving the Cubs a unique potential look at their abilities in a more competitive setting than Spring Training can usually provide.

Between Sampson, Wesneski, and the above trio of darkhorse options, the Cubs have an interesting choice to make ahead of Opening Day regarding who will take up Hendricks’s spot in the rotation until he returns from the injured list. It’s possible injuries could make the decision easier by that time, either by taking options out of the running or opening up more spots in the rotation for those competing. Even if that happens, though, the Cubs appear to be in a good place in terms of quality starting pitching depth as they begin to prepare for the 2023 campaign.

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Big Hype Prospects: Volpe, Wesneski, O’Hoppe, Harrison, Brujan

By | at February 20, 2023 1:33pm CDT

This week on Big Hype Prospects, we continue our offseason tradition of focusing on players tangentially linked to news and rumors.

Five BHPs In The News

Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, NYY (AAA)
(AA) 497 PA, 18 HR, 44 SB, .251/.348/.472

True to their word, the Yankees never got around to solving their left field opening with an external addition. Nor did they upgrade Josh Donaldson after the veteran turned in his worst-hitting performance since 2012. The club has opted to go with internal depth like Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Cabrera, Oswald Peraza, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Also factoring into the calculus is the imminent arrival of Volpe.

The 21-year-old slugger has only 99 plate appearances of experience at Triple-A and posted a modest 91 wRC+ at the level. While minor league data isn’t comprehensive, there’s evidence Volpe was too patient with pitches inside the strike zone. A repeat at the level makes sense given the personnel already on hand in the Majors. It would require an incredible Spring Training for Volpe to crack the Opening Day lineup. In the interim, with Gleyber Torres participating in the World Baseball Classic, Volpe should have more opportunities for middle infield game reps.

Hayden Wesneski, 25, SP, CHC (MLB)
(AAA) 110.1 IP, 8.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 3.92 ERA

With Kyle Hendricks expected to begin the season on the injured list, the Cubs have a battle for the fifth rotation slot. The most intriguing entrant is Wesneski, a right-hander who showed a knack for avoiding hard contact in a brief 33-inning trial last season. Wesneski features a five-pitch repertoire including three distinct fastballs, a slider, and a changeup. While he doesn’t project to run rampant strikeout totals in the Majors, Wesneski is stingy about allowing hits and walks. It’s a Jameson Taillon-like profile, and it’s probably no accident the Cubs acquired both players in the last calendar year.

Logan O’Hoppe, 23, C, LAA (MLB)
(AA) 447 PA, 26 HR, 7 SB, .283/.416/.544

Acquired at the previous trade deadline for formerly hyped prospect Brandon Marsh, O’Hoppe will compete with Max Stassi for a starting role on the thirsty Angels. Although the right-handed hitter has yet to play in Triple-A, the Angels gave him a vote of confidence in the form of 16 Major League plate appearances last fall. O’Hoppe took advantage of hitter-friendly conditions to torch Double-A pitching. His 2022 breakout included improved plate discipline without sacrificing aggression against pitches in the heart of the zone. This is a relatively rare adjustment. Should he seize the Opening Day job, keep an eye on his plate discipline metrics. If he retains his selective aggression, O’Hoppe could emerge as one of the top catchers in the league.

Kyle Harrison, 21, SP, SFG (AA)
(AA) 84 IP, 13.61 K/9, 4.18 BB/9, 3.11 ERA

Including High-A, Harrison threw a total of 113 innings. He should approach a full complement of 30 starts this season – perhaps with a mix of longer and shorter outings to manage his workload. The Giants put together a deep pool of Major League starters. In addition to the presumed starting five of Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling, and Alex Wood, Jakob Junis and Anthony Desclafani await in the bullpen.

While Harrison finds himself behind a number of very qualified starters, the pool of viable minor leaguer replacements is relatively thin. This is also a group of veterans who (mostly) have familiarity with major injuries. This apparent depth could evaporate at a moment’s notice, offering a temporary opportunity for Harrison to audition. As of last look, command is Harrison’s greatest weakness. Most scouts think he’ll develop in this regard. If not, his stuff is sufficient to support him in short-burst starter or elite fireman roles.

Vidal Brujan, 25, 2B/OF, TBR (MLB)
(MLB) 162 PA, 3 HR, 5 SB, .163/.228/.259

Although technically no longer a prospect, Brujan still fits a looser definition of an “unestablished, young player.” He’s also received plenty of hype over the years. Brujan doesn’t fit cleanly on this iteration of the Rays roster, leading MLBTR staffer Anthony Franco to consider him a trade candidate. The switch-hitter has struggled to make impactful contact at the top level, though he has posted an above-average batting line at every minor league level – aside from nine plate appearances at Low-A in 2016. At one point, prospect watchers secretly hoped Brujan would flip a power switch like similarly-built infielder Jose Ramirez. Now it’s looking likelier Brujan settles as a defense-first regular with a contact-forward hitting approach.

Three More

Thad Ward, WSH (26): Although I’ve yet to hear of the Nationals planning to use Ward as a starter this season, the absence of Stephen Strasburg creates a tempting opportunity. Ward has served as a starter throughout his minor league career and profiles as a potential rotation regular. The Nationals are in a state of internal evaluation and have little reason to withhold starts from their Rule 5 pick.

James Outman, LAD (25): After spending much of the offseason with a clear path to a starting role, Outman now finds himself locked behind David Peralta. As a fellow left-handed hitter, Outman faces an uphill battle for regular reps.

DL Hall, BAL (24): Hall is currently behind schedule due to lower back discomfort. The oft-injured southpaw already looked questionable to make the Opening Day rotation. This setback only increases the risk of a minor league assignment. While Hall undoubtedly could play as a Major League reliever, the club is still assessing his potential as a starter.

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Big Hype Prospects Chicago Cubs Los Angeles Angels MLBTR Originals New York Yankees San Francisco Giants Tampa Bay Rays Washington Nationals

Trade Candidate: Vidal Brujan

By | at February 14, 2023 3:43pm CDT

A depth surplus and roster crunch is familiar territory for the Rays, who seemingly make a trade or two at the start of each offseason to reallocate spots to players they want to keep out of the Rule 5 draft. This winter saw former top infield prospect Xavier Edwards shipped alongside reliever JT Chargois to the Marlins for a pair of minor leaguers nowhere close to the majors.

Even with Edwards no longer in the picture, the Rays have plenty of infield talent. That could result in another trade, with a different one-time top minor leaguer also appearing to be on the roster bubble. Vidal Bruján played in 52 MLB games last season and has appeared in the big leagues in each of the past two years. He’s yet to establish himself as an everyday player, though, and it’s questionable whether the Rays are in a great position to give him that opportunity.

Bruján appeared at the back half of Baseball America’s top 100 prospect list each season from 2019-22. A switch-hitter with plus speed, he’s put up a solid .274/.355/.440 line and 70 stolen bases over 166 games at the Triple-A level. Bruján doesn’t have huge power, but he’s an advanced contact hitter and athletic enough to be a quality baserunner. He’s gone down on strikes in just 15.9% of his Triple-A plate appearances while walking at a quality 10.4% clip.

That upper minors production didn’t carry over in his first significant big league action. Over 162 plate appearances last season, he hit .163/.228/.259 with three homers and five steals in 10 attempts. Those numbers aren’t an entirely fair reflection of his performance, as Bruján’s .193 batting average on balls in play will certainly come up over a longer sample. He didn’t hit the ball hard at the MLB level but continued to make contact at an above-average clip.

Headed into his age-25 season, Bruján certainly still has promise. Yet he doesn’t have the clearest path to at-bats in Tampa Bay, at least to open the season. Primarily a middle infielder throughout his minor league tenure, he’s certainly not displacing Brandon Lowe or Wander Franco if those players are healthy. The Rays have given him some outfield work to take advantage of his athleticism. Bruján doesn’t have the kind of power one would expect from a primary corner outfielder. He’s not likely to be the caliber of center fielder Jose Siri or Josh Lowe are given his lack of high level experience at the outfield’s most demanding position.

There’s not a clear path to everyday playing time for Bruján anywhere at the MLB level right now. He still has one remaining option year, however, raising the possibility of him heading back to Triple-A Durham for an additional season.

Trading Bruján would represent a sell-low situation. He’d have value but wouldn’t fetch an astronomical return after a down rookie season. Keeping him in a utility capacity gives manager Kevin Cash a potential pinch-runner or defensive substitute later in games but isn’t likely to afford Bruján the at-bats to play his way into a more consistent role.

The latter course of action is also complicated by the Rays’ surplus of alternative bench possibilities. Assuming the club deploys 13 pitchers and position players alike, they’ll have four reserve spots available. One will go to the backup catcher. Luke Raley is out of options, meaning he’ll have to stay in the majors or be offered to other teams. Taylor Walls didn’t hit last season but is an excellent infielder, one whom the Rays trusted more regularly than Bruján when Franco and Brandon Lowe were injured in 2022. Walls can be optioned, but doing so would subtract likely the top defensive shortstop from the active roster.

It’s the opposite story for Jonathan Aranda, who comes with defensive concerns but mashed at a .318/.394/.521 clip in Durham to earn a brief MLB look. Aranda can be optioned back, though he clearly has nothing left to prove against minor league pitching. His lefty bat would also be a welcome addition to a Rays’ lineup that heavily skews right-handed, so it stands to reason the front office would prefer to have Aranda in the majors. Another top infield prospect, Curtis Mead, is almost certainly going to make his MLB debut in 2023 after hitting .305/.394/.548 over 56 games in Triple-A last season. He was added onto the 40-man roster this offseason and ranks as the game’s #36 prospect at Baseball America.

Juggling this kind of infield talent is nothing new for a front office that tends to prioritize high-contact middle infielders on draft day. It’s the kind of depth most other organizations aren’t able to stockpile, which makes even players towards the back of the Tampa Bay roster intriguing to other clubs. If the Rays feel Bruján is trending in that direction, they could open talks with other teams that have acute needs up the middle. The White Sox, A’s, Tigers, Pirates and Angels are among the speculative candidates for such a trade — particularly since non-competitive teams like Oakland, Detroit and Pittsburgh can afford to live with some early growing pains to take a chance on Bruján’s longer-term upside.

There weren’t any indications over the offseason the Rays were especially anxious to move Bruján. Perhaps an injury in Spring Training paves the way for him to assume a more obvious role in Tampa Bay than exists right now. If everyone’s healthy come Opening Day, though, he’d head into the season as an interesting potential trade chip if the Rays don’t flip him during Spring Training.

Note: An earlier version of this post incorrectly suggested Bruján was out of options. MLBTR has confirmed the Rays were granted a fourth option year, with Bruján having one option season remaining. MLBTR regrets the error.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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MLBTR Originals Tampa Bay Rays

Big Hype Prospects: Walker, Vargas, Hall, Frelick, Wiemer

By | at February 13, 2023 3:45pm CDT

Rejoice! The offseason is officially behind us. Pitchers and catchers who are involved in the World Baseball Classic report today. The rest report on either 2/15 or 2/16. Fresh prospect news should start to trickle in soon. The WBC will give us additional opportunities to see prospects in competitive action. Not only do some top prospects participate in the contest, the outflow of players to international games means there are more opportunities for game reps in big league camps.

Five BHPs In The News

Jordan Walker, 20, 3B/OF, STL (AA)
(AA) 536 PA, 19 HR, 22 SB, .306/.388/.510

One of the most dynamic prospects in the league with a penchant for barreling the ball, Walker is in the process of converting to outfield in deference to Nolan Arenado. As we covered recently, the Cardinals don’t exactly have an opening in the outfield either. Walker also doesn’t have a spot on the 40-man roster yet, further complicating his path to the Majors. While fans are undoubtedly clamoring to see him early this season, a successful stint at Triple-A will almost certainly be required to force the issue.

If there’s any caveat about Walker, and this is nitpicking, it’s an elevated ground ball rate. Since he has special power, Walker could very well tap into an elite HR/FB rate like Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton to overcome a few extra bouncers. He’s expected to post above average BABIPs on account of the angle and quality of his contact.

Miguel Vargas, 23, 2B/3B, LAD (MLB)
(AAA) 520 PA, 17 HR, 16 SB, .304/.404/.511

Another third baseman by trade set to shift positions, the Dodgers have announced Vargas will man the keystone. The less fleet-footed Max Muncy will play third base. This is a conversion that usually works out for reasonably athletic young players like Vargas. The athletic requirements for the two positions are similar. Third basemen generally need more arm strength. Second basemen should have sharper footwork. Vargas projects as a roughly league average third baseman, and that likely holds true at second base too.

An evaluator I consulted doesn’t believe Vargas is a future star, though he does appear to be a high-probability core performer. While they’re not particularly comparable, these are the same sorts of comments I received about Jake Cronenworth prior to his debut in San Diego. There are some feel-based aspects to Vargas’ game that could allow him to exceed his physical limitations.

DL Hall, 24, SP, BAL (MLB)
(AAA) 76.2 IP, 14.67 K/9, 5.75 BB/9, 4.70 ERA

Hall posted the largest workload of his professional career last season. He tossed 98 innings in total across four levels including a brief debut in the Orioles bullpen. He’ll be offered an opportunity to compete for one of two open rotation slots in Baltimore. Hall’s stuff is filthy, and he works deep counts seeking strikeouts. He’s also prone to walks. His errant command shouldn’t be viewed as a permanent characteristic just yet. Like many pitching prospects, Hall has struggled with injuries throughout his ascent. Further setbacks could force a bullpen role – as we’ve seen happen with A.J. Puk. Conversely, a healthy stint might be the ticket for unlocking just enough command to carry his superb stuff as a short-burst starter. Notably, Hall’s stuff did not play up out of the bullpen.

Sal Frelick, 22, OF, MIL (AAA)
(A+/AA/AAA) 562 PA, 11 HR, 24 SB, .331/.403/.480

The Brewers could graduate a fresh outfield of the future this season. Roster realities, an uphill battle in the NL Central, and pricey left fielder Christian Yelich will complicate the juggling act ahead for General Manager Matt Arnold. None of Frelick, Joey Wiemer, or Jackson Chourio are yet on the 40-man roster.

Frelick is a prototypical leadoff hitter with above average discipline, speed, and feel for quality contact. His power rates as below average, though it remains possible he’ll make adjustments to unlock decent pop. Presently, there are doubts Frelick will stick in center field. He’s sufficiently athletic but has iffy instincts. Some players overcome this shortcoming. Others do not. His path forward as a left fielder is more fraught – both due to the presence of Yelich and his lack of impactful power.

Joey Wiemer, 24, OF, MIL (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 548 PA, 21 HR, 31 SB, .256/.336/.465

Wiemer stands out on a field. Not only is he a large man, he can fly around the diamond. The profile looks like a big-man version of Tyler O’Neill. He’s expected to be the sort of volatile player who will at times carry a team and at others slog through deep slumps. Presently, his game power is inconsistent. He appeared to make an adjustment late last season to a more balanced contact profile. That could also be a small sample artifact. Things to keep an eye upon in Triple-A and when he debuts include his line drive rate, pulled contact, and infield fly rate.

Three More

Jackson Chourio, MIL (18): It’s not yet confirmed if Chourio received an invitation to big league Spring Training. On the shortlist for number one prospect in baseball, I don’t believe I’ve seen this level of hype since the days of Mike Trout. He’s still learning center field where he’s physically capable but inexperienced. His bat is expected to play at any position. Most encouragingly, he made a number of key in-season adjustments last year – a trait which bodes well for his further development.

JJ Bleday, OAK (25): Bleday, whose least appealing attributes were covered last week, was recently acquired by the Athletics. Oakland is less inclined to feign competitiveness than Miami, meaning Bleday should have a fair chance for regular reps. However, the A’s have quite a few outfielders at present including Ramon Laureano, Tony Kemp, Seth Brown, Esteury Ruiz, Cristian Pache, and Conner Capel among others. Bleday might need to await the nearly inevitable trades of Laureano and Brown.

Ezequiel Tovar, COL (21): Tovar recently spoke to the media about his pursuit of an Opening Day role with the Rockies. Per his comments, he might parlay a strong Spring Training into an active roster spot. Given his youthful age, Colorado could be tempted to seize any excuse to manipulate his service time. A late April debut would secure control over his age 27 season. Tovar is not yet a finished product as a hitter, though his defense is considered excellent.

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