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Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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After scoring big in last year’s free agent market, the Blue Jays have some major holes to fill as they look to take the next step forward for a playoff berth.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (salary projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • None

Free Agents

Despite winning 91 games, the Blue Jays still finished fourth in the stacked AL East, as the Red Sox and Yankees each won 92 games and earned wild card berths.  While so many things went right for the club in 2021, falling just a game shy of the playoffs leads to a thousand “if only…” scenarios.  Since the division doesn’t figure to get any easier next year, the Blue Jays are now challenged to not only get back to that 91-win threshold, but likely to bank a few more victories and break through to the postseason.

Fortunately for Toronto fans, the Jays already started preparing for 2022 even while in the midst of last year’s pennant race.  Acquiring Jose Berrios, Adam Cimber, and Trevor Richards not only helped the Blue Jays bolster their in-season pitching needs, but all three hurlers came with extra years of control (Berrios through 2022, Cimber/Richards through 2023).  That gave the Jays a jump on solidifying a bullpen that struggled badly in the first half, and Berrios adds another front-of-the-rotation arm to a starting five that might lose two arms to free agency.

Robbie Ray was one of the bargains of the 2020-21 offseason.  The southpaw quickly re-signed with the Jays for a one-year, $8MM pact, and then delivered a season that may yet result in a Cy Young Award.  Steven Matz’s contributions also shouldn’t be overlooked, as Matz battled with his consistency from time to time but still posted a solid 3.82 ERA over 150 2/3 innings.

Bringing back either of these pitchers is a distinct possibility.  Ray will require perhaps the priciest contract given to any free agent pitcher this winter, though he has spoken highly of his time with the Jays and the coaching staff’s help in unlocking this new level of production.  As a common matter of business, Ray will receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Blue Jays, though the team is also reportedly thinking about issuing Matz the QO.  That would be a bold move since $18.4MM is likely well beyond what the Jays would normally feel comfortable giving to Matz in average annual value.  However, if Matz accepted the one-year deal, the Jays could cross one big need off their checklist very early in the offseason.

And, if Matz rejected the QO, that would put the Jays in line for compensatory draft pick.  That would make it as many as three extra picks for Toronto if Matz, Ray, and Marcus Semien all rejected qualifying offers and signed elsewhere.  With this bonus draft-day stockpile, the Jays could feel more comfortable about surrendering another pick in order to ink another “qualified” free agent.  (Caveat: this assumes some type of similar qualifying offer/compensatory pick system will continue to be in place in the next collective bargaining agreement between the league and players.)

Berrios, Hyun Jin Ryu, and rookie star Alek Manoah are currently lined up to fill the top three spots in Toronto’s 2022 rotation.  The Blue Jays hope that Nate Pearson can stay healthy and have a Manoah-esque breakout, though the club might also use Pearson in the bullpen.  Doing so would help to monitor his innings, which could be necessary considering how Pearson has pitched only 187 total innings in five seasons of pro ball.  Ross Stripling will also return to make starts at the back end of the rotation or work as a long reliever, while younger arms like Anthony Kay, Thomas Hatch, or (if he isn’t non-tendered) Trent Thornton provide more starting depth.

If not Ray or Matz, some type of additional help is needed for this rotation mix.  The signings of Ryu and George Springer over the last two seasons are evidence that the Jays are comfortable shopping at the top of the market, so pretty much any member of the free agent starter class is a possibility.  The Jays could target the bigger names, or perhaps go after one big-ticket pitcher and then a lower-tier arm in search of a rebound year (essentially, the next Ray or Matz).

The same could also be true of the bullpen market, though traditionally, the Jays haven’t spent much on relief pitching since Ross Atkins became general manager.  The club’s $5.5MM deal with Kirby Yates last winter counted as a big investment by that standard, yet that contract quickly became a bust since Yates missed the entire year due to Tommy John surgery.

Yates’ bad elbow was one of many injuries that ravaged Toronto’s bullpen early in the season.  While the sheer volume of maladies is maybe unlikely to happen again, Atkins may focus on stockpiling bullpen depth to guard against a repeat scenario.  This could manifest itself in a flood of minor league deals or low-cost MLB deals, or the front office might aim higher on the reliever market and look to someone in the Corey Knebel/Collin McHugh tier to join with Cimber, Richards, Tim Mayza, Julian Merryweather, and closer Jordan Romano.

Besides just free agents, the Blue Jays can always look to add arms via trade.  The Jays has already parted with notable talent (Rowdy Tellez for Richards; top prospects Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson for Berrios) to land pitching, so this is another instance where multiple compensatory picks could factor into the team’s decision-making.  If the Jays know they’ll have two or three extra picks to reload the farm in the next draft, they might be more willing to swap another significant youngster this winter.

It’s probably unlikely that Toronto would move such blue-chip prospects as Gabriel Moreno, Jordan Groshans, or Orelvis Martinez, yet moving Martin a year after drafting him fifth overall also didn’t seem likely until it happened.  If the right controllable star player is available, Atkins has shown that he is willing to take the big plunge on the trade front.  For instance, to land a premium position player like Ketel Marte or (past Jays trade target) Jose Ramirez, the Jays could be more amenable to giving up a major prospect.

Alternatively, trading an infielder like Groshans or Martinez could be more palatable if the Jays knew Semien would be in the fold for years to come.  After betting on himself with a one-year, $18MM deal last winter, Semien hit the jackpot with a huge 45-homer campaign.  With two MVP-caliber performances in his last three seasons, Semien is now set to receive one of the bigger contracts of any free agent this winter, even in an offseason that features so many other elite shortstops.

Of course, Semien didn’t play much shortstop during his year in Toronto, instead working as the everyday second baseman alongside shortstop Bo Bichette.  Since Bichette’s defense improved as the year went on, a Jays/Semien reunion would likely hinge on whether Semien is open to remaining at second base.  Semien has the leverage to call his own shot at this point, so if he is prioritizing a return to shortstop or (as some reports suggest) a return to the West Coast, the Blue Jays may be out of luck.

The Jays’ lineup still has a lot of pop even without Semien.  Bichette, a healthier Springer, Teoscar Hernandez, and MVP candidate Vladimir Guerrero Jr. form a strong nucleus.  Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has shown to be incredibly productive when on one of his hot streaks.  Catchers Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen were similarly up-and-down amid injury-hampered 2021 seasons but still finished as above-average offensive contributors by measure of wRC+.

Santiago Espinal also surprisingly emerged to deliver some quality hitting from the third base position, which helped counter Cavan Biggio’s down year.  Heading into 2022, the Espinal/Biggio combination could work as a platoon at third base or second base, depending on how the Blue Jays fill Semien’s spot.  Espinal can handle either position from a defensive perspective, while a move to second base might be preferable for Biggio since his glovework struggled at the hot corner.  Prospect Otto Lopez is another super-utility option who made his MLB debut in 2021 and could be ready for a longer look on Toronto’s bench next year.

Still, this flexibility allows the Jays to explore all options at either infield position.  They could try to land a longer-term star (e.g. re-signing Semien, trading for Jose Ramirez, signing Corey Seager), or maybe obtain a veteran stopgap (e.g. Kyle Seager) to act as a bridge to Groshans or Martinez.  Signing a multi-position player like Chris Taylor would only further increase their roster’s versatility, but with so many right-handed hitters already in the fold, a lefty or switch-hitter could be preferable.

Without a regular DH on the roster, the Blue Jays have enough space in the lineup to find at-bats for the outfield core of Gurriel, Springer, Hernandez, and Randal Grichuk.  That said, although Grichuk has some power and can at least fill in at all three outfield spots, he also has just 1.5 combined fWAR since the start of the 2019 season.  He seems like an expendable piece if the Jays can find a taker for the $18.66MM remaining on his contract.

Gurriel is cheaper and has more trade value, but he also has more value to the Jays.  Toronto might rue moving Gurriel if he should develop as a consistent hitter in another team’s lineup.  If one of Gurriel or Grichuk was dealt, the Blue Jays could explore re-signing Corey Dickerson, a left-handed bat who hit pretty well after being obtained from the Marlins.

With so many possibilities open to the Blue Jays this winter, it’s worth wondering just how much payroll space will be available to the club.  Toronto has a deep arbitration class that is projected to be worth more than $40MM, factoring in big raises for Berrios, Hernandez, and Guerrero.  Ryu and Springer take up big chunks of the guaranteed money on the books, though overall, the Jays have roughly $112.4MM to $114.5MM (as per Cot’s Baseball Contracts and Roster Resource) committed to their 2022 payroll.

Team president Mark Shapiro has already indicated that the Jays are prepared to spend more next season than they did in 2021, which means an increase from the roughly $140.6MM Roster Resource calculated as the club’s 2021 expenditures.  Not all of these extra funds could be spent specifically in the offseason, as the Blue Jays will likely want to keep some money free for any necessary in-season transactions.  However, since Toronto’s payroll topped the $165MM threshold (as per Cot’s) as recently as 2017, the Jays might have quite a bit of cash on hand to swing transactions assuming ownership is fine with a return to that level of spending.  Acquiring a new high-salaried player or re-signing one of Semien or Ray would alone take up a big portion of those extra funds, so the Blue Jays might look to trim some of their existing costs through trades.

It is also worth noting that Springer is the only player on the books beyond the 2023 season, so the Jays could get creative in signing players to backloaded contracts.  This future salary space will also come in handy as the team starts thinking about extensions.  Berrios is the most pressing concern entering his final year of control, while Hernandez has two years of control remaining.  Some long-term mega-deals will be required if the team hopes to lock up Bichette and especially Guerrero at this point.

The 2021 season has to be considered something of a missed opportunity for the Jays, considering how Semien and Ray performed beyond expectations, Manoah delivered the rookie breakout that was expected for Pearson, and Guerrero emerged as one of baseball’s best hitters.  Still, the team heads into 2022 with a lot of momentum, and a return to normalcy has already been established now that the Jays are officially back in Toronto (as opposed to Buffalo and Dunedin).  The Blue Jays would’ve loved to have cap off that homecoming with some playoff games this October, but they’ll now need to do some work this offseason to make that dream a reality next fall.

Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees

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The Yankees reached the playoffs but had another unsatisfying postseason, losing to the arch-rival Red Sox in the AL wild card game.  Some new faces will inevitably join the roster, but the possibility exists for a larger overhaul as the Yankees reload for a deeper run into October.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Gerrit Cole, SP: $252MM through 2028 (Cole can opt out after 2024 season, or Yankees can overwrite opt-out by adding a $36MM salary for 2029)
  • Giancarlo Stanton, OF: $189MM through 2027 (includes $10MM buyout of $25MM club option for 2028 — Marlins will cover $10MM of Stanton’s contract each season from 2026-28)
  • DJ LeMahieu, IF: $75MM through 2026
  • Aaron Hicks, OF: $41MM through 2025 (includes $1MM buyout of $12.5MM club option for 2026)
  • Aroldis Chapman, RP: $16MM through 2022
  • Rougned Odor, 2B/3B: $15MM through 2022 (includes $3MM buyout of $13.5MM club option for 2023 — Rangers covering all of Odor’s salary minus the MLB minimum for 2022)
  • Zack Britton, RP: $14MM through 2022
  • Luis Severino, SP: $13.75MM through 2022 (includes $2.75MM buyout of $15MM club option for 2023)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Brett Gardner, OF:  $2.3MM player option — Yankees have a $7.15MM club option ($1.15MM buyout) if Gardner declines his player option
  • Joely Rodriguez, RP: $3MM club option for 2022 ($500K buyout, paid by Rangers if Yankees decline the option)
  • Darren O’Day, RP: $1.4MM player option for 2022 ($700K buyout — Yankees have a $3.15MM club option if O’Day declines his player option)

Free Agents

“At times it looked unstoppable, but many other times unwatchable” is how GM Brian Cashman summed up his team, which won 92 games in baseball’s toughest division and yet still seemed like underachievers in the eyes of many Bronx fans.  The Yankees rarely seemed fully locked in for much of the season, but there was still enough talent on the roster to tread water through the hard times until the team could again get on a hot streak.

The high talent ceiling also came with a pretty low floor, however, which stood out in a division where the Rays, Red Sox, and Blue Jays seemed to squeeze more out of all 26 roster spots.  Injuries played a part in the Yankees’ lack of depth, though that depth shortage was also something of a self-created problem, as New York made every roster move with an eye towards staying under the $210MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold.

Exceeding the threshold for a third straight season would’ve put the Yankees in line for the maximum repeater penalty (a 50% tax on every dollar spent over $210MM), and that was a price that the team was simply not willing to pay.  With this in mind, the Yankees still did well to acquire the likes of Anthony Rizzo and Joey Gallo in midseason trades while staying under the CBT threshold, yet the idea of the big-budget Yankees operating under self-imposed spending restrictions didn’t sit well in the Big Apple.

The Yankees also dipped under the tax line in 2018 in order to reset their penalty status, and then were back to their usual higher-spending selves in both 2019 and 2020.  On paper, this could mean the Bronx Bombers will be ready and willing to throw some cash around this winter, particularly since the CBT rules could be changed altogether depending on how baseball’s next collective bargaining agreement shakes out.

That said, between the guaranteed contracts on the books and the team’s large arbitration class, the Yankees are already in luxury tax territory before the offseason even officially begins — Cot’s Baseball Contracts and Roster Roster Resource estimate the Yankees’ current 2022 CBT number as roughly in the range of $221.1MM to $223.7MM.  If ownership and the front office don’t overly care about blowing past the tax line once, this might not be an issue (and again, we don’t know what the tax threshold will be in 2022, or if the CBT will continue to exist in its current form). But, given how the Yankees have been operating with some level of financial restraint in the Hal Steinbrennner era, a full-on acquisition frenzy may not be all that likely.

This isn’t to say the Yankees couldn’t carve out some room by trading or even non-tendering some of those arbitration-eligible players.  Miguel Andujar and Clint Frazier seem more like spare parts than future cornerstones at this point, and Luke Voit’s stock has dropped after an injury-plagued 2021 season.  Or, if not the arb-eligibles, could someone like Luis Severino be dealt to a team in need of pitching, if the Yankees are ready to move on after three years of injury woes for the right-hander?  Packaging one or two of these players together into one trade would be a creative way to address another roster need, repurpose some salary, or perhaps just clear some payroll space for a bigger signing down the road.

If getting rid of such players doesn’t sound feasible, Cashman has already indicated that he wants a more athletic, defensively-capable roster next year, with hitters less prone to strikeouts.  This doesn’t bode well for the likes of Voit, and if another starting infielder is acquired and Gio Urshela assumes a super-sub infield role, having both Rougned Odor and Tyler Wade as light-hitting backup infielders suddenly becomes redundant.

Figuring out which incumbents will remain on the roster is tricky since quite a few regulars struggled in 2022, yet it can be assumed that Urshela, Gleyber Torres, and DJ LeMahieu aren’t going anywhere.  This trio is currently penciled in for starting infield roles (with Voit getting some time at first base or DH), leaving a big hole at shortstop that Cashman has already identified as a need.

The 2021-22 free agent market is loaded with premium shortstops.  Any of Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Javier Baez, or Trevor Story would cost a hefty sum, yet any would also provide a marked improvement over Torres’ shaky shortstop defense and his average offensive output over the last two seasons.  The Yankees are hoping that moving Torres back to second base will help him rebound from a pair of subpar years, and since Torres is only entering his age-25 season, it is too early for the Yankees to give up on a player who has shown such potential in the past.

Getting a new veteran mentor as a double-play partner would also surely help Torres’ development, and give the Yankees some stability in the middle infield — if Torres struggles again in 2022, he might become an expendable part in a year’s time.  The presence of top shortstop prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza must also be considered, whether as candidates to move to other positions, or as shortstops of the future that the Yankees wouldn’t want to block by adding a star veteran on a long-term contract.

With this in mind, it’s possible the Yankees would choose to spend their money on other areas and instead only acquire a shorter-term option to play shortstop.  Trading for a player like Paul DeJong or old friend Didi Gregorius, for example, would provide New York some flexibility for the future, even if such a move would seem like a stopgap measure for a team trying to win immediately.  The Yankees could try to have it both ways, and sign one of the big shortstops this winter and then explore a possible position change (i.e. Seager to third base or Semien to second base) should Volpe and/or Peraza force the issue in a couple of seasons.

New York also might not stop at just one new infielder.  LeMahieu and Urshela are versatile enough that the Yankees could explore adding help at first or third base.  For the hot corner, that might mean looking into a Matt Chapman trade, or maybe the team could try to sign both Corey and Kyle Seager for an all-in-the-family left side of the infield.  At first base, Rizzo provided unspectacular but decent production after being acquired from the Cubs at the trade deadline, and as a left-handed hitter with lots of contact skills, he fits multiple needs for the Yankees.  Rizzo’s old Chicago teammate Kris Bryant might be an even more ideal fit as a player who could be moved around the diamond, yet Bryant’s asking price could be over $200MM, and possibly beyond the Yankees’ comfort zone if they’re also splurging on a shortstop.  Even Rizzo might be pricier than the Yankees are willing to spend on the first base position, especially since Voit is still on hand.

The outfield seems pretty set, with Gallo and Aaron Judge flanking returning center fielder Aaron Hicks, while Giancarlo Stanton will probably mostly serve as the DH but also get some time in the corners.  The Yankees aren’t likely to exercise their $7.15MM club option on Brett Gardner, but if Gardner either picks up his own player option or another deal is worked out between the two sides, it’s probably safe to just assume the longtime regular will return for yet another season in the Bronx.  Andujar, Frazier, and Estevan Florial also factor into the depth picture depending on how many return in 2022.

As with the infield, though, there are some questions within these ostensibly settled positions.  Hicks has been bothered by injuries throughout his career, and wrist surgery limited him to a career-low 32 games last season.  Gallo’s Yankees tenure didn’t get off to a great start, as he struck out a whopping 88 times in 228 plate appearances while batting only .160/.303/.404 with 13 home runs.  Gallo is another arbitration-eligible player the Yankees could potentially look to deal, though his value is lower now than it was when New York got him from the Rangers at the trade deadline, and Gallo’s ability to play center field provides useful versatility if Hicks is injured again.

There weren’t many concerns about Judge in 2021, which was a boon after the slugger played in only 242 of a possible 384 games in 2018-20 due to injuries.  Judge has always been a dangerous bat when healthy, and with 633 PA to work with last year, he hit 39 home runs to go along with a .287/.373/.544 slash line.  Judge is entering his final arbitration year, and while the Yankees have a pretty solid policy against contract extensions, one would expect they’d at least have some talks with Judge in Spring Training about signing a long-term deal.

Catcher is perhaps the biggest conundrum position the Yankees face, as there are equal cases to be made for retaining or parting ways with Gary Sanchez.  After a rough 2020 season, Sanchez rebounded to post roughly league-average offense last year, which is solid from the catcher’s position.  However, Sanchez also had another high strikeout rate, and his longstanding defensive issues behind the plate again saw him lose playing time to Kyle Higashioka down the stretch.

After four seasons of drama and rumors about Sanchez’s status, the Yankees might be open to moving on, as Cashman didn’t even confirm that Sanchez would be the starting catcher in 2022.  The catching position is thin enough that Sanchez wouldn’t be non-tendered, yet by that same logic, the lack of obvious available upgrades could mean the Bombers might just hang onto Sanchez for his final year of team control.  If Sanchez were dealt, a one-year stopgap signing of a familiar face like Austin Romine or Robinson Chirinos could team with Higashioka until the Yankees figure out a longer-term answer.

With so many hitters underwhelming in 2021, the irony is that the Yankees ended up being carried by their pitching last year, even though there was plenty of uncertainty about their mix of arms heading into Opening Day.  While many of those pitchers will be returning, the Yankees now face the challenge of seeing if they can duplicate or better that performance, and some reinforcements may be required.

Gerrit Cole and Jordan Montgomery have rotation spots locked up, with Severino, Domingo German, and Nestor Cortes Jr. penciled into the other three spots.  Severino’s health is always a question, German pitched only 98 1/3 innings due to shoulder problems, and while Cortes’ emergence was a fun storyline, his lack of a track record leaves some doubt about whether he can be as effective in 2022.  Jameson Taillon will start at some point, though his recovery from ankle surgery will keep him sidelined until roughly the end of March, so he’ll need time to ramp up after missing virtually all of Spring Training.

This group could be augmented by younger arms, as Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt, and Deivi Garcia all made starts last season and will likely be competing with Cortes and maybe even German for rotation spots come Spring Training.  There is promise but not much experience on hand, so obtaining one more solid veteran pitcher would help the Yankees breathe a little easier.  A reunion with Corey Kluber might be the simplest option, though Kluber had another lengthy injured-list absence in 2021 and can’t be relied upon as a stable eater of innings.

Plenty of interesting candidates exist on the free agent pitching market, and any number of these hurlers would have interest in joining a perpetual contender like the Yankees.  Again, the club’s overall spending plans will determine what types of pitchers will be on the radar.  If New York goes big to land a star position player or two, a mid-tier rotation arm might be the preference.  Or, if the Yankees went for shorter-term options around the diamond, they could invest at the top of the pitching market, perhaps signing Robbie Ray away from the Blue Jays or bringing Marcus Stroman from Queens to the Bronx.

For a less-obvious but still familiar option, a reunion with Masahiro Tanaka also can’t be ruled out.  After signing with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles last winter, Tanaka hinted at a potential return to both MLB and to the Yankees specifically, so it wouldn’t be a shock to see Tanaka back in the pinstripes now that the Yankees have more flexibility under the luxury tax threshold.

If signing a new starter results in a surplus of rotation candidates, that’s a pretty nice problem to have, as New York could then use those extra arms to bolster the bullpen.  The Yankees got good production from most members of the relief corps last season, but heading into 2022, the team’s two highest-paid relievers are issues.  Zack Britton will miss most or even all of next season after undergoing elbow surgery, while Aroldis Chapman wasn’t his usual dominant self in 2021.  Chapman struggled to contain home runs for the second consecutive year, and he had one of the worst walk rates (15.6%) of any pitcher in baseball.

Chapman’s struggles don’t necessarily auger a change in the closer role, as his numbers were still pretty good overall.  However, the Yankees might give a right-hander like Chad Green or Jonathan Loaisiga more looks in save situations against right-handed batters, or if a new reliever is acquired on a low-cost deal, it could be someone with past closing experience.  On the contract option front, New York is likely to exercise its club option on Joely Rodriguez, while Darren O’Day will probably exercise his player option in the wake of an injury-shortened season.

Finally, the Yankees already took care of some major offseason business when they signed Aaron Boone to a new three-year contract (with a club option for 2025).  While Boone’s old deal was up after this season, it never seemed like there was too much chance of a managerial change, as Cashman and Steinbrenner both expressed their support for Boone at multiple points during the year.

Boone has yet to lead the Yankees to a pennant in his four years as manager, and the team’s 2009 World Series title remains its only trip to the Fall Classic in the last 18 seasons.  This (relative) lack of postseason success has led to a lot of impatience within the fanbase, especially since the Yankees were perceived as being more concerned about avoiding a luxury tax bill than making a full-fledged push to win.

On the other hand, the acquisitions of Rizzo, Gallo, and an under-the-radar steal of a pickup in Clay Holmes showed that Cashman could still make quality additions within a budget, and big spending doesn’t necessarily always equal playoff success.  Cashman is on record as acknowledging the faults of his 2021 team and said “we will be open-minded to everything and anything on this roster” in terms of correcting these shortcomings.  Whether this manifests itself in the form of some more creative trades, mid-tier signings, or a good old-fashioned Yankees spending spree remains to be seen, but the 2021-22 offseason could be a busy one in the Bronx.

Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Royals

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Even after the Royals’ work to put together a contending club in 2021 didn’t pan out, expect newly promoted president of baseball operations Dayton Moore and general manager J.J. Picollo to take another shot at adding some win-now pieces to complement a promising young core.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Salvador Perez, C: $82MM through 2025 (includes $2MM buyout of $13.5MM club option for 2026)
  • Hunter Dozier, 1B/3B/OF: $21.75MM through 2024 (includes $1MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2025)
  • Mike Minor, LHP: $11MM through 2022 (includes $1MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2023)
  • Carlos Santana, 1B/DH: $10.5MM through 2022
  • Michael A. Taylor, OF: $9MM through 2023
  • Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF: $4MM through 2022 (includes $750K buyout of $6.5MM club option for 2023*)
  • Total 2022 commitments: $50.5MM
  • Total of all long-term commitments: $138.25MM

*The value of Merrifield’s 2023 option will increase to $10.5MM if he spends fewer than 109 days on the IL from 2019-22. He has not been on the injured list in that time (or at all in his MLB career).

Projected Salaries for Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Royals got a head-start on some offseason business in September. General manager Dayton Moore was promoted to president of baseball operations, while longtime assistant GM J.J. Piccolo was elevated to the title of general manager. The pair of title bumps helped the Royals to ensure that both well-regarded execs will remain with the club and avoid being considered for lateral moves (that would previously have represented promotions) with other organizations. Meanwhile, the team kept center fielder Michael A. Taylor from reaching the free-agent market by hammering out a two-year, $9MM extension.

Taylor, 31 in March, turned in a dismal .244/.297/.356 batting line (77 wRC+) but played center field at such a ridiculously high level that it really didn’t matter. The Royals loved the glove enough to give Taylor 528 plate appearances, and he rewarded them with 19 Defensive Runs Saved, a 13.3 Ultimate Zone Rating and 15 Outs Above Average — a mark that trailed only Tampa Bay’s Manuel Margot among all MLB outfielders.

The extension for Taylor preemptively answered the Royals’ center field question, and he’ll now return alongside left fielder Andrew Benintendi, who’s due one final arbitration raise. Benintendi no longer looks like the budding star we saw with the 2018 Red Sox, but he’s settled in as a slightly above-average bat and will give Kansas City a solid option for at least the 2022 season (if the team doesn’t look to further extend him this spring). Taylor and Benintendi can hold down two of three outfield spots, but the third is where the path moving forward becomes murkier.

Whit Merrifield and Hunter Dozier are both under contract for multiple seasons — Merrifield through at least 2022 with a 2023 club option, and Dozier through at least 2024 with a 2025 option. The former has been one of the game’s great bargains and a perennially unheralded star (at least relative to the acclaim he receives). The latter scuffled through a dismal 2021 showing that has made last March’s $25MM contract extension look regrettable.

Twenty-four-year-old Kyle Isbel also forced his way into the outfield conversation this year with a solid Triple-A showing (.269/.357/.444, 116 wRC+) and a torrid hot streak following a mid-September call to the Majors. In 47 plate appearances down the stretch, Isbel hit .286/.362/.524.

Isbel is purely an outfielder, but both Merrifield and Dozier can and have played in the outfield and infield extensively. Looking around the infield dirt, however, the picture is quite crowded. Top prospect Bobby Witt Jr.  should seize the shortstop position before too long, and the Royals have already moved Adalberto Mondesi to third base in part to prepare for a potential position change. Nicky Lopez was a Gold Glove candidate at shortstop this year (another reason Mondesi moved to the hot corner) and has likely cemented his spot in next year’s infield mix — even if it means a move to second base.

Kansas City could split first base and designated hitter duties between Dozier and veteran Carlos Santana, with Merrifield taking the bulk of his reps in right field and Isbel getting more work in Triple-A. That might be a palatable option were it not for the looming arrival of another top prospect: first baseman Nick Pratto. The former first-round pick went from potential afterthought to potential building block with a ludicrous minor league season that saw him post a .265/.385/.602 batting line with 36 long balls between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s all but ready for an MLB look himself, and that’s where things get tougher.

First and foremost: Moore has made clear in the past that he has little interest in trading Merrifield. Although Merrifield has long been a player for whom rival fans (and surely rival clubs) have pined in trade scenarios, Kansas City extended him mid-rebuild and has never shown an inclination to move him. Now that Moore & Co. have shifted to a win-now mindset, Merrifield isn’t likely to suddenly be available — even with his club control dwindling.

That said, neither Dozier nor Santana is teeming with trade value. Dozier hit just .216/.285/.394 in 2021 and posted poor defensive marks at multiple positions. Santana was terrific through the season’s first two months before flopping with a .198/.287/.296 slash from June 1 through season’s end. The Royals could explore swapping out either for another sub-optimal contract, but it’s also possible that Dozier simply moves to a bench role and Kansas City hopes for a rebound from one or both. Dozier, after all, has played all four corner spots and finished the season on a big high note, hitting .272/.346/.576 from Sept. 1 onward.

The only other spot on the diamond yet to be addressed in this writing barely even needs mention. Salvador Perez’s 2021 campaign was one of the best by any catcher in Major League history, and he’ll return as the team’s linchpin behind the plate. Perhaps the Royals will explore the market for a veteran backup, as neither Cam Gallagher nor Sebastian Rivero inspires much confidence in the event of an untimely injury to Perez. Then again, both are passable backups — especially considering Perez’s ironman workload — and the Royals likely have a superior safety net waiting in the wings, should Perez require a prolonged stay on the injured list.

For all the attention (rightfully) placed on huge seasons for Witt and Pratto in Double-A and Triple-A, the Royals had a third overwhelming performance from a minor league hitter. Catching prospect MJ Melendez was not only in the Double-A and Triple-A lineups with Witt and Pratto the whole way — he actually outproduced both at the plate. In 531 plate appearances between those two levels, Melendez mashed at a combined .288/.386/.625 pace with 41 home runs. Selected just 38 picks after Pratto in 2017, Melendez joined in his draft-mate in flipping the narrative on that ’17 draft class in convincing fashion.

Unlike Pratto and Witt, however, Melendez doesn’t have a clear path to everyday at-bats moving forward. He could certainly operate as a designated hitter and part-time catcher, gradually increasing his workload behind the dish as Perez’s own workload decreases with age. That opportunity might not present itself until 2023, barring a deal to unload Santana, but it’s certainly one to which the Royals have to be open.

Alternatively, it’s inevitable that catching-needy clubs around the game will see a blocked catching prospect who just put the finishing touches on a mammoth minor league season and try to pry him loose. The Marlins, Astros, Rangers and perhaps the Yankees are all teams in need of long-term solutions behind the dish. This isn’t a situation where the Royals would use Melendez in order to shed a contract such as Santana, to be clear, but Kansas City will field plenty of interest in Melendez this winter. Miami, in particular, is teeming with young pitching it could offer the Royals.

Of course, the Royals have their own collection of impressive young arms on which they’ll rely moving forward. The 2021 Royals were the first team in Major League history to have five pitchers from the same draft class start a game for the team that drafted them (via Royals director of communications Nick Kappel, on Twitter). Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch and Kris Bubic were Kansas City’s top four picks in 2018, and 18th-rounder Jon Heasley made his own MLB debut late in the season. Add breakout righty Carlos Hernandez, veteran Mike Minor, stalwart Brad Keller and righty Jakob Junis to the mix, and the Royals have some obvious depth before even making any additions.

That depth is nice, but it didn’t yield results for the Royals in 2021. Kansas City starters ranked 24th in the Majors with a 4.97 ERA. As was the case with Santana, Minor’s two-year deal failed to pay dividends. He soaked up a team-high 158 2/3 innings but did so with a 5.05 ERA. Fielding-independent metrics were more forgiving, but one has to imagine that the Royals would be open to finding a way to move Minor and the $11MM he’s still guaranteed ($10MM salary in 2022; $1MM buyout of a $13MM club option for 2023).

Looking to the homegrown arms, all four of Singer, Lynch, Kowar and Bubic previously ranked among the game’s top 100 prospects. Singer showed promise during his 2020 debut but took a step back in 2021 (128 1/3 innings, 4.91 ERA). Each of Bubic, Lynch and Kowar walked 10% or more of the hitters they faced and did so with below-average strikeout rates. Not every top-ranked pitching prospect dominates from day one — the vast majority do not, in fact — but it’s fair to say the Royals were probably hoping for better results from at least some of this group through this stage in their young careers.

Be that as it may, the Royals can still count themselves eight deep (if not more) in viable rotation options. They’ll be looking for some to take a step forward, but the fate of next year’s staff is largely dependent on the continued development of the young pitchers. There’s certainly room to add a veteran on a low-cost deal, but the hope will be that some combination of Singer, Bubic, Lynch, Kowar and Hernandez seizes at least a couple of long-term spots.

To recap: the Royals have three near-MLB top-100 prospects, with only one (Melendez) truly being blocked by a veteran. They have more infielders than infield spots available (in part due to underperformers Dozier and Santana), and they have more outfielders than outfield spots available. They’re also teeming with young starters who carry plenty of potential but have yet to piece things together.

It’s not hard to see why the front office is so bullish on the long-term outlook. However, the Royals need a lot of positive strides, from a development standpoint, for this group to be deemed a contender. They could opt for a quiet winter with regard to the lineup and the rotation, relying solely on internal development — or they could do what they did nearly a decade ago and condense some of this talent into more proven stars. It’s been almost nine years since the Royals acquired James Shields and Wade Davis in a trade that sent then-top prospects Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi to Tampa Bay, but the current Kansas City roster is in a somewhat comparable spot.

There’s virtually no scenario in which the Royals move Witt, and Pratto seems quite unlikely to be dealt himself. But with Melendez being blocked, a smorgasbord of young rotation hopefuls and perhaps players like Isbel or Mondesi lacking straightforward paths to playing time, there are multiple avenues for Moore, Picollo and the rest of the front office to explore.

In surprisingly candid fashion this summer, Moore indicated that the team simply can’t count on the wildly talented but oft-injured Mondesi as an everyday player, though he also emphasized the organization had no plans to give up on him. Still, with several other infield options and Mondesi now just two years from free agency, it stands to reason that other clubs will look into acquiring him. Suffice it to say, while the Royals may not be the most active team in the free-agent market, they’ll likely still be active in talks with other clubs around the league.

The one area of the club that this outlook has yet to address, of course, is the bullpen. Dominant relief pitching was a hallmark of the Royals’ 2014-15 World Series clubs, and the foundation for a similarly strong bullpen could be in place. Controllable, power-armed righties Scott Barlow and Josh Staumont had breakout years and positioned themselves as a formidable one-two punch in 2022 and beyond. Rookie southpaw Jake Brentz had a strong debut of his own and averaged 97 mph on his heater, but he’ll need to curb his 13.3% walk rate. Domingo Tapia and Dylan Coleman showed varying levels of promise.

That said, the bullpen is the most obvious area that the Royals could look to spend in free agency. Kansas City is projected for just shy of $87MM in payroll next season (using Swartz’s arbitration projections), and that number could fall with some non-tenders looking quite likely. The Royals have just $33MM on the books in 2023. It’d still be a shock to see them play at the very top of the relief market (i.e. Raisel Iglesias), but any of the second-tier options thereafter (Kendall Graveman, Corey Knebel, etc.) could easily fit into the Royals’ payroll. Putting together a deep bullpen will only take pressure off the young arms in the rotation.

The 2021 season didn’t go as Moore and his staff hoped when dipping back into the free-agent market last winter, but it’s still hard to look at all of the talent on the horizon in Kansas City and not believe better days are ahead. The Royals can afford to make a splash or two in the bullpen. Their growing crop of young talent and considerable payroll space gives them ample leverage to take a bigger swing on the trade market if the opportunity presents itself.

Previewing The 2021-22 Free Agent Class: Right-Handed Relief

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With free agency approaching, MLBTR has taken a position-by-position look at the options who’ll be available on the open market. We’ll wrap up the exercise with a look at the group of right-handed relievers.

Top of the Market

Raisel Iglesias (32): After being dealt to the Angels in what was largely a salary-dump move for the Reds, Iglesias quietly had the best season of his career in many respects. He racked up 34 saves, which matched his personal best. Over 70 innings, his ERA was 2.57. His strikeout rate was an excellent 37.7%, which was bested only by Jacob deGrom, Liam Hendriks and Paul Sewald, among pitchers with at least 60 innings. Iglesias dropped his walk rate to a personal best 4.4%, also an elite number. In short, he was one of the best relievers in the game this year. If we prorate 2020 out to a full season, Iglesias has now logged 60-plus innings with an ERA under 2.75 in five of the last six seasons, with 2019’s 4.16 ERA looking like an aberration.

Ready-Made Closers

Kenley Jansen (34): The last time Jansen was a free agent, he re-signed with the Dodgers on a five-year, $80MM contract. In the first year of that deal, 2017, he was as dominant as Dodgers fans had come to expect, racking up 41 saves with a miniscule 1.32 ERA, with elite strikeout and walk rates of 42.2% and 2.7%, respectively. Over 2018-2020, he slipped a bit from those incredible heights but was still very good. The ERA went above 3.00, the strikeout rate hovered around 30% and the walk rate has gradually climbed towards double digits. In 2021, he got the ERA back down to 2.22 despite his walk rate climbing to a higher than average 12.9%. He still notched 38 saves and had a great year overall, but there are concerns in the underlying numbers. That combined with his age will certainly mean he won’t match his last contract, but he should still command a lot of interest on a shorter term.

Alex Colome (33): 2021 was Colome’s sixth-straight season of tallying at least 12 saves. He had 17 on the campaign this year, over 65 innings. However, his 4.15 ERA was the highest of his career. He’s gradually become more of a ground ball pitcher over the years, sacrificing strikeouts in the process. His 53.7% grounder rate was the highest of his career, though his strikeout rate has been around 20% in 2020 and 2021, after peaking at 31.6% in 2016.

Ian Kennedy (37): It’s been an up-and-down ride for Kennedy since he moved to the bullpen three years ago. The first campaign was great, as he saved 30 games for the Royals in 2019 with an ERA of 3.41 and a 27.4% strikeout rate. Unfortunately, injuries hampered his 2020, limited him to 14 innings with an ERA of 9.00. The Rangers then signed him on a minor league deal that turned into a steal. Kennedy notched 16 saves in 31 1/3 innings with Texas, with a 2.51 ERA. The club was then able to send him to Philadelphia along with Kyle Gibson for a package of prospects. Things didn’t go as smoothly for Kennedy with the Phillies, however, as his ERA ballooned up to 4.13 over 24 innings. He did still notch 10 more saves, though, giving him a total of 26 on the year. Given his age and inconsistent track record, he won’t get a lengthy contract. But that could make him attractive to both contending clubs as well as rebuilding clubs who would hope for a solid first half and a deadline deal like the Rangers just got.

Other High-Leverage Options

Kendall Graveman (31): Graveman’s first full season as a reliever could hardly have gone much better. Between Seattle and Houston, he threw 56 innings with an ERA of 1.77, strikeout rate of 27.5% and walk rate of 9%. He logged 10 saves in Seattle before the trade and is now pitching for the Astros in the postseason.

Corey Knebel (30): As a Brewer, Knebel was dominant in 2017 and 2018 but then missed all of 2019 due to Tommy John surgery, and then struggled in limited action in 2020. After being traded to the Dodgers for 2021, Knebel seemed to get things back on a good track. Despite missing a decent chunk of the season with a lat strain, he still logged 25 2/3 innings with an ERA of 2.45, 29.7% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate. He also got 5 2/3 innings of work for the Dodgers in the postseason, racking up 11 strikeouts and allowing a pair of earned runs. He’s excellent when on the mound but interest will likely be tempered by question marks surrounding his health.

Ryan Tepera (34): Tepera had the best season of his career in 2021, split between both Chicago clubs. Overall, he threw 61 1/3 innings with an ERA of 2.79, a personal best. His 30.8% strikeout rate was better than every previous season of his, except for the shortened 2020 campaign. His 7.9% walk rate was the lowest since his rookie year in 2015. Tepera’s deal with the Cubs last winter only came with a guarantee of $800K, a figure he’ll handily top this time around.

Hector Neris (33): Neris racked up 28 saves in 2019 with an ERA of 2.93. Since then, however, inconsistency has bumped him out of the closer’s seat. Over 2020 and 2021, he’s thrown 96 innings with a 3.84 ERA and 17 saves. His strikeout rate over those two campaigns is an excellent 30.3%, but his walk rate is higher than average at 10.9%. He likely won’t be any team’s first choice for the closer job but could be an appealing fallback option.

Daniel Hudson (35): Hudson’s season started out great, as he threw 32 2/3 innings for Washington, with an ERA of 2.20, buoyed by a strikeout rate of 37.8% and walk rate of 5.5%, both of which are excellent. But after being dealt to the Padres at the deadline, things mostly went in the wrong direction. In 19 innings for San Diego, his ERA shot up to 5.21 and his walk rate up to 10.8%. His strikeout rate, while still excellent, dropped to 32.5%.

Collin McHugh (35): McHugh was on and off the IL all season but still threw 65 excellent innings in 37 games for the Rays. He struck out 30% of the batters he faced and walked only 4.9%. His 1.55 ERA was fourth-best in MLB among pitchers with at least 60 innings, behind only Jacob deGrom, Emmanuel Clase and Ranger Suarez. McHugh missed all of 2020 due to injuries and then signed a one-year, $1.8MM deal with the Rays. After a year of health and effectiveness, he seems on course to top that this winter.

Solid Veterans

Brad Boxberger (34): Boxberger had to settle for a minor league deal last winter, which turned out to be a great pickup for the Brewers. They got 64 2/3 innings out of him in the regular season, with an ERA of 3.34, 31.2% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate. He also tossed a couple of scoreless innings for them in the NLDS.

Archie Bradley (29): Bradley seemingly turned himself into a different kind of pitcher this year, getting way less strikeouts but way more grounders. In the end, it seemed to work well enough. In 51 innings for Philadelphia, his ERA was 3.71. His 17.9% strikeout rate was a big drop-off, as he was between 22 and 28% in the previous five campaigns. However, his groundball rate was 55.7%, his best since his cup of coffee in 2015.

Jesse Chavez (38): Chavez didn’t sign until late April this year, and even then, it was a minor league deal. He didn’t get selected to the big league club until June. But it turned into a bargain for Atlanta, who got 33 2/3 innings out of Chavez with an ERA of 2.14. His 8.3% walk rate is around league average, but his quality 27.1% strikeout rate was the highest of his career. He’s also added 1 2/3 scoreless innings in the playoffs so far.

Steve Cishek (36): 2020 was a bad year for Cishek, but he bounced back in 2021 and made 2020 look like a fluke. Leaving aside 2020, Cishek has ten consecutive seasons of throwing at least 44 innings with an ERA below 3.60.  In 2021, he logged 68 1/3 innings for the Angels with an ERA of 3.42.

Tyler Clippard (37): Clippard gave the Diamondbacks 25 1/3 innings in 2021 with an ERA of 3.20, but there are reasons for concern underlying that. His strikeout rate of 18.9% was his lowest mark since way back in 2008, and his 9.9% walk rate was high highest since 2017. Perhaps that’s somewhat attributable to the shoulder injury that caused him to miss the first half of the season.

Jeurys Familia (32): The Mets signed Familia to a three-year, $30MM deal prior to the 2019 season. Over the course of that deal, he logged 146 innings with an ERA of 4.62, strikeout rate of 24.1% and walk rate of 13.4%. 2021 was a bit better than the first couple years of the deal, as his ERA was 3.94 and his strikeout rate shot up to 27.5% and his walk rate dropped to 10.3%.

Luis Garcia (35): Garcia signed a minor league deal with the Yankees this past offseason, but was released in July and caught on with the Cardinals. Over the final few months, Garcia had one of his best stretches in years. In 33 1/3 innings, he had an ERA of 3.24, his lowest since 2017. His strikeout rate was above average at 25.2% and his walk rate was an excellent 5.9%.

Yimi Garcia (31): Garcia got some time as closer for the Marlins in the first half of the season, racking up 15 saves with an ERA of 3.47. Since a deadline deal to the Astros, he’s been a setup guy, logging 21 1/3 innings with an ERA of 5.48. However, his strikeout and walk rates both improved after the deal, suggesting there’s bad luck contributing to that high ERA.

Mychal Givens (32): It was a tale of two seasons for Givens. His first half with the Rockies was excellent, as he pitched 29 2/3 innings with an ERA of 2.73, strikeout rate of 27.4% and walk rate of 11.3%. After a deadline deal to the Reds, he logged 21 1/3 innings with an ERA of 4.22, strikeout rate of 21.7% and walk rate of 14.1%.

Chris Martin (36): It’s been a strange season for Martin as his strikeout rate plummeted but he has managed to stay effective. Over 2019 and 2020, he threw 73 2/3 innings with an ERA of 2.81, strikeout rate of 30.1% and walk rate of 2.8%. In 43 1/3 innings in 2021, his strikeout rate dropped all the way to 18.2%, although his walk rate stayed low at 3.3% and his ERA only went up to 3.95.

Adam Ottavino (36): Ottavino’s best season was 2018 with the Rockies. In 77 2/3 innings, he had an ERA of 2.43, strikeout rate of 36.2% and walk rate of 11.17%. Since then, he’s still been a solid contributor but things have generally trended in the wrong direction. In 2021, he pitched 62 innings, with an ERA of 4.21, strikeout rate of 25.7% and walk rate of 12.7%.

Yusmeiro Petit (37): Petit logged 78 innings in 2021 with an ERA of 3.92. However, his strikeout rate dropped to 11.8%, the lowest of his career except for a cup of coffee in 2012. But his walk rate stayed exceptionally low at 3.8%. He doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact and has consistently seen his real results outperform the advanced metrics.

Hansel Robles (31): It’s been a mercurial few seasons for Robles. 2019 was excellent, as he notched 23 saves for the Angels, throwing 72 2/3 innings with an ERA of 2.48. In 2020, his ERA blasted up to 10.26, leading to his non-tender by the Halos. He was picked up by the Twins and threw 44 innings with an ERA of 4.91 and strikeout rate of 22.9%, recording 10 saves and getting traded to the Red Sox. For Boston, he threw another 25 innings with an ERA of 3.60 and a much-improved strikeout rate of 30.3%.

Sergio Romo (39): Things mostly trended in the wrong direction for Romo in 2021. Over 61 2/3 innings for the Athletics, he recorded an ERA of 4.67, the highest of his career. His 23.2% strikeout rate was tied for the worst of his career, matching his rate from 2013. And his 8.1% walk rate was his highest since 2017. Signed to a one-year, $2.25MM contract last winter, he’ll probably be looking at a lower salary in 2022.

Joe Smith (38): 2021 was going terribly for Smith, as he pitched 21 2/3 innings for Houston with an ERA of 7.48. However, after getting traded to Seattle, he evened things out with 18 innings with an ERA of just 2.00. On the whole, his 4.99 ERA for the year was the worst of his career. His 19.7% strikeout rate on the year was subpar, but his 4.6% walk rate was quite good.

Joakim Soria (38): Soria was one of few bright spots for the Diamondbacks this season. He pitched 29 1/3 innings out of their bullpen with an ERA of 4.30 and was then flipped to the Blue Jays for a couple of prospects. Due to various injuries, he only got logged eight innings for the Jays down the stretch. Overall, he notched 37 1/3 innings with an ERA of 5.06, strikeout rate of 25.2% and walk rate of 7.5%.

Wildcards

Michael Lorenzen (30): Lorenzen is one of the most unique players in baseball, having the ability to hit, play the outfield, pitch as a starter or reliever. His best work has been out of the bullpen, but he’s apparently looking for a rotation job this winter. He made 21 starts in 2014 but only five since, making him fairly unproven in that regard. However, his numbers as a reliever have been solid at times. From 2016 to 2019, he logged 297 1/3 total innings with an ERA of 3.39. Injuries have limited him over the past few years, however. In 2021, his ERA was 5.59 over a 29-inning sample. If he doesn’t find the rotation job he seeks, he could make for a solid bullpen addition somewhere, as long as his health cooperates.

Jimmy Nelson (33): Nelson had a dominant season as a starter in 2017, but injuries wiped out his 2018, most of his 2019 and all of his 2020 season. 2021 looked to be a bounceback, as he pitched 29 innings out of the Dodgers’ bullpen with an ERA of 1.86, strikeout rate of 37.9% and walk rate of 11.2%. Unfortunately, it was announced in early August that he would require Tommy John surgery, which will wipe out most or all of his 2022. Teams have occasionally given multi-year contracts to players rehabbing from Tommy John, with Ken Giles’ deal with the Mariners being one recent example.

Trevor Rosenthal (32): The Athletics signed Rosenthal to a one-year, $11MM deal in the offseason but never got any production in return. He underwent thoracic outlet surgery in April and went on the IL. In July, while trying to work his way back onto the mound, he tore a labrum in his hip and had to undergo another surgery, this one ending his season. With a lost season and two surgeries, Rosenthal will have to prove his health before getting interest in free agency. But given his past run of success from 2012 to 2017 and his bounceback campaign in 2020, he will surely garner his share of interest if he can get himself mended.

Kirby Yates (35): Yates was apparently close to signing with Atlanta for one-year, $9MM before they noticed an elbow issue and pulled the deal off the table. The Blue Jays, knowing about the elbow issue, decided to take a chance and signed him to an incentive-laden deal with a $5.5MM guarantee. The gamble didn’t pay off as Yates underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of March and never got into a game in 2021. Yates was flat out incredible in 2019, racking up 41 saves over 60 2/3 innings with an ERA of 1.19, strikeout rate of 41.6% and walk rate of 5.3%. However, injuries limited him to just 4 1/3 innings in 2020 and then wiped out his 2021. If he successfully rehabs, he could be the biggest buy-low wildcard candidate of them all.

Depth Options

Matt Andriese (32): Since moving to the bullpen full-time, Andriese has tantalized with decent strikeout and walk rates, but hasn’t had the results to match. Over the past four seasons, he’s tallied 229 2/3 innings with a 24% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate, both of which are slightly better than league average. However, his ERA in that time is 4.98. Advanced metrics think he should be better, but that seems to always be the case. His BABIP this season was .392, helping his ERA balloon up to 5.21. If some team can figure out a way get better results, he could be a buy-low success story. Last winter, he was signed by the Red Sox for a $2.1MM guarantee, was designated for assignment in August, signed with the Mariners and was designated again.

Shawn Armstrong (31): Armstrong logged 36 innings in 2021 between the Orioles and Rays, putting up an ERA of 6.75, but near-average strikeout and walk rates of 26.7% and 9.1%, respectively.

Cam Bedrosian (30): After five straight solid seasons in the Angels’ bullpen, Bedrosian took a step backward in 2021. From 2016-2020, he threw 225 innings with an ERA of 3.20, 25.1% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate.  In 2021, split between Cincinnati, Oakland and Philadelphia, he logged 25 innings with an ERA of 5.04, 19.8% strikeout rate and 14.7% walk rate.

Scott Blewett (25): Blewett worked five innings of one-run ball this year, but he did so with five walks and four strikeouts. The 25-year-old spent most of the season at Triple-A, struggling to keep the ball in the yard en route to a 6.39 ERA.

Brad Brach (36): Brach logged 30 innings of the Reds ’pen, but without much to show for it. His ERA was 6.30 and his walk rate was 12.9%, though his strikeout rate was still around league average at 23.7%.

Jhoulys Chacin (34): Chacin spent almost the entire season in multi-inning relief with the Rockies. His 4.34 ERA is decent for a pitcher whose home games are in Coors Field, but that came with less impressive strikeout and walk numbers.

Tyler Chatwood (32): It was a season to forget for Chatwood, as his one-year deal with the Blue Jays only kept him on the roster until the end of July. He was designated for assignment, signed with the Giants and then designated for assignment again at the end of August. Overall, he threw 32 innings on the year with an ERA of 5.63 and a bloated walk rate of 14.5%, though he still had a robust strikeout rate of 26.2%.

Kyle Crick (29): Crick had a couple nice seasons early in his career, but he’s struggled of late. He walked a massive 17.8% of opponents this year with the Pirates and was let go. Crick showed much better in a brief stint with the White Sox’s Triple-A affiliate but didn’t get a big league look in Chicago.

Wade Davis (36): 2021 was a third-consecutive frustrating season for Davis. He threw 42 2/3 innings for the Royals this year, with an ERA of 6.75, along with mediocre strikeout and walk rates of 20% and 10%, respectively.

Chris Devenski (31): Devenski underwent Tommy John surgery in June of 2021, making him unlikely to contribute much in 2022. He also missed most of 2020 because of elbow issues, meaning he’s only tallied 11 innings over the past two years combined. He had two excellent campaigns for the Astros in 2016 and 2017, but saw his numbers slide a bit for 2018 and 2019. He’ll likely have health questions hovering over him until he can convince teams otherwise.

Rafael Dolis (34): Dolis had a great four-year stretch in Japan and parlayed that into a two-year deal with the Blue Jays. The first year, 2020, went quite well, as Dolis had an ERA of 1.50 over 24 innings in the shortened campaign, along with a 31% strikeout rate. However, 2021 wasn’t nearly as pleasant, as his ERA shot up to 5.63 over 32 innings. His 14% walk rate in 2020, which was already high, shot up to 17.3% in 2021, though the strikeout rate was still good at 25%. Dolis cleared waivers and finished the season well in Triple-A, throwing 11 1/3 innings with an ERA of 1.59, 26.4% strikeout rate and a still-high walk rate of 13.2%.

Jake Faria (28): Faria soaked up 32 2/3 innings of long relief for the D-Backs but posted only a 5.51 ERA before being outrighted off the roster.

Luke Farrell (30): Farrell tossed 24 2/3 frames for the Twins, posting a 4.74 ERA with slightly worse than average strikeout, walk and ground-ball numbers.

Michael Feliz (29): Feliz earned his frequent flier points in 2021, spending time with Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Boston and Oakland. In total, he threw 20 innings with an ERA of 7.20. However, his 24.4% strikeout rate was still around average, and he reduced his walk rate to 7.8%, after being in double digits for the previous four seasons.

Shane Greene (33): The typically-productive Greene is coming off a rough showing in 2021. He got off to a late start after lingering in free agency until May, then struggled between both the Braves and Dodgers. Over 23 2/3 frames, he managed just a 7.23 ERA with a career-high 12.4% walk rate.

Jesse Hahn (32): It was mostly a lost season for Hahn, as he threw just 3 1/2 innings before going on the IL with shoulder issues and never returned. Due to various injuries, he’s thrown just 25 1/3 big league innings over the past four years.

David Hale (34): Hale posted a 6.41 ERA in 26 2/3 innings with the Phillies. He was cut loose in June and didn’t catch on with another club for the rest of the season.

Heath Hembree (33): Hembree’s massive 34.2% strikeout rate will surely attract interest from clubs, but the fly-ball pitcher had significant issues keeping the ball in the yard with the Reds this past season. Hembree’s results were far better after a late-season waiver claim by the Mets.

David Hess (28): Hess was tagged for a 9.90 ERA in 20 innings, splitting the 2021 season between the Rays and Marlins.

Greg Holland (36): Holland had a nice bounceback campaign in 2020 but couldn’t repeat the feat in 2021. His 1.91 ERA from last year shot up to 4.85 this year. His strikeout and walk rates also both went from better than average to worse than average.

Tommy Hunter (35): Hunter signed a minor league deal with the Mets last winter and logged eight innings without allowing an earned run before heading to the injured list May 21st with a lower back issue. He went to the Rays as part of the Rich Hill deal but didn’t pitch again on the year.

Brandon Kintzler (37): The groundball specialist had a terrible year with the Phillies, throwing 29 2/3 innings with an ERA of 6.37. However, his BABIP was .369, well above his previous seasons, meaning there could be some bad luck in there. Regardless, he was released by the Phillies in early August and didn’t latch on anywhere else over the final two months of the season.

Josh Lindblom (34): Lindblom had a great run in the KBO but struggled over his two seasons in Milwaukee.

Keynan Middleton (28): Middleton threw 31 innings for the Mariners this year with an ERA of 4.94, strikeout rate of 17.1% and walk rate of 13.6%. He finishes the year with between four and five years’ service time, meaning he could come with an extra year of control for any team that signs him for 2022.

Darren O’Day (39): Due to various injuries, O’Day only pitched 10 2/3 innings this year. He’s still fairly effective when healthy but hasn’t pitched more than 20 innings since 2017.

Blake Parker (37): Signed by the Guardians to a minor league deal last winter, Parker ended up being a solid contributor for their bullpen, logging 43 2/3 innings with an ERA of 3.09. However, his strikeout rate dropped to 20%, his lowest mark since 2016 and well below his 36.2% rate from last year.

David Phelps (35): Phelps got out to an excellent start this season, throwing 10 1/3 innings out of the Blue Jays’ pen. He had an ERA of 0.87, strikeout rate of 35.7% and walk rate of 9.5%. Unfortunately, he went on the IL in mid-May with a lat strain that required season-ending surgery. His recovery from that procedure will determine how much interest he gets. If he’s healthy, he could be an interesting buy-low target.

Adam Plutko (30): It was an awful campaign for Plutko in 2021, as he threw 56 1/3 innings for the Orioles with an ERA of 6.71. His strikeout rate of 17.3% and walk rate of 10.6% were both worse than league average. He was designated for assignment in August and cleared waivers.

Daniel Ponce de Leon (30): Ponce de Leon had some nice seasons as a swingman early in his career, but 2021 was a struggle. He worked 33 1/3 innings of 6.21 ERA for the Cardinals before being released in September.

Erasmo Ramirez (32): Ramirez logged 26 2/3 innings for the Tigers this year, with a 5.74 ERA and subpar 18.3% strikeout rate. However, his 4.6% walk rate was very good. He was placed on release waivers by the club in August.

Sal Romano (28): Romano bounced around the league via waivers and minor league free agency all season. Between three clubs, he tossed 25 innings of 6.12 ERA ball.

Ervin Santana (39): Santana worked 65 1/3 innings over just 38 appearances, pitching primarily as a long man for the Royals. The longtime big league starter posted a 4.68 ERA.

Bryan Shaw (34): Shaw struggled mightily with the Rockies and Mariners from 2018-20, but he recaptured some of his old bullpen workhorse form after returning to Cleveland this year. The veteran worked 77 1/3 innings of 3.49 ERA ball. His peripherals didn’t support that caliber of run prevention, but Shaw soaked up plenty of medium-leverage innings.

Burch Smith (32): Smith pitched 43 1/3 innings out of Oakland’s bullpen, but with an ERA of 5.40. His strikeout rate, which was above 23% going into the year, plummeted to 14.9%. His walk rate was a very good 5.9%, however. He was designated for assignment and outrighted in September.

Hunter Strickland (33): Strickland had his best season in years in 2021. Between the Rays, Angels and Brewers, he threw 58 2/3 innings with an ERA of 2.61, 24% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate. He’s had to settle for minor league deals in recent offseasons but could do better this winter after a strong campaign.

Cesar Valdez (37): Valdez surprisingly became the Orioles closer for a time this season, with his low-velocity style not matching the typical profile for that job. However, it didn’t last, as he was bumped from that role and later designated for assignment, re-selected to the team and then later designated a second time. Overall, he logged 46 big league innings with an ERA of 5.87.

Dan Winkler (32): Winkler pitched 39 2/3 innings for the Cubs in 2021 with an ERA of 5.22. His strikeout and walk rates both were the worst of his career. He was released by the club in August.

Brandon Workman (33): Workman signed a one-year deal with the Cubs last winter but only pitched eight innings for them with an ERA of 6.75. He latched on with the Red Sox and pitched 20 innings with an ERA of 4.95 before being designated for assignment after the trade deadline and electing free agency.

Mike Wright Jr. (32): Wright worked 18 innings of 5.50 ERA this season for the White Sox. He has ample starting experience as well.

Limited Time This Season*

Kyle Barraclough (31)

Austin Brice (29)

Edgar Garcia (25)

Chi Chi Gonzalez (30)

Jake Jewell (28)

Derek Law (31)

Luis Madero (24)

Shelby Miller (31)

Anthony Swarzak (36)

Konner Wade (30)

Taylor Williams (30)

Players With Options

Craig Kimbrel, $16MM club option with $1MM buyout (34): Kimbrel was unbelievable with the Cubs in 2021. Over 36 2/3 innings, his ERA was barely visible at 0.49 and his strikeout rate was 46.7%. After being dealt to the other Chicago club, his ERA was 5.09 and the strikeout rate dropped to 36.7%. Taken as a whole, it’s still 59 2/3 innings with an ERA of 2.26 and 42.6% strikeout rate. It was recently reported that the White Sox plan on picking up the option and discussing Kimbrel in trades this offseason.

Joe Kelly, $12MM club option with $4MM buyout (34): Kelly had a great year in 2021, throwing 44 innings with a 2.86 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate. However, he’s entering his age-34 season and has an inconsistent track record. The club might pass on this net $8MM decision and focus resources towards a rotation that could lose Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw and a lineup that could lose Corey Seager and Chris Taylor. Then again, the bullpen could be losing Kelly, Kenley Jansen, Jimmy Nelson and Corey Knebel.

Garrett Richards, $10MM club option with $1.5MM buyout (33): The Red Sox seem likely to buy Richards out. He struggled mightily as a starter through the season’s first half. A move to the bullpen initially brought much improved results, but Richards tailed off again towards the end of the year. Over 26 1/3 innings of relief, he posted a 3.42 ERA with roughly league average strikeout and walk numbers. Richards could draw interest as either a starter or bullpen arm this winter if Boston cuts him loose.

Mark Melancon, $7MM mutual option with $1MM buyout (37): Melancon’s one-year, $3MM deal with the Padres came with a mutual option for 2022, initially valued at $5MM. There were $2MM of incentives available based on games finished, maxing out at 45. Since he finished 53 games for the Friars this year, he has increased the value of that mutual option to the $7MM maximum. He saved 39 games for the club this year, pitching 64 2/3 innings with 2.23 ERA. The Padres would surely love to have their closer back at that price, but Melancon may be able to get multiple years in free agency. Still, it will be hard to turn down a salary more than double what he made this year. Mutual options rarely get exercised by both sides, but this is one of the odd ones that could make sense for all parties.

Craig Stammen, $4MM club option with $1MM buyout (38): Stammen was a workhorse for the Padres in 2021, throwing 88 1/3 innings, tied for his highest tally since 2010. He had an ERA of 3.06, near-average strikeout rate of 23.6% and excellent walk rate of 3.7%. For a net $3MM decision, it seems reasonable enough for the club to pick up that option, even though the Padres are running franchise-high payrolls lately.

Pierce Johnson, $3MM club option with $1MM buyout (31): After a strong 2019 season in Japan, Johnson signed a two-year, $5MM deal with the Padres, which has worked out well for both sides. Over the two seasons, Johnson threw 78 2/3 innings with a 3.09 ERA. The walk rate is a tad high at 11.1%, but the 32.1% strikeout rate is excellent. Given that solid performance and modest price, this option seems likely to be picked up.

Josh Tomlin, $1.25MM club option with $250K buyout (37): Tomlin pitched 49 1/3 innings for Atlanta this year, but with a bloated 6.57 ERA. He did post a career-high BABIP, suggesting that there could be some bad luck in there. But with such a modest buyout and such poor surface numbers, it seems likely the club takes that route.

Dellin Betances, $1MM player option with no buyout (34): Once one of the most-feared relievers in baseball, Betances has been hampered by injuries in recent years. 2018 was the last time he logged more than 12 innings. The Mets took a gamble on him prior to the 2020 season, signing him to a one-year deal with player options for 2021 and 2022. Betances triggered his option for 2021 but then only pitched a single inning for the Mets this year before shoulder woes put him on the shelf and led to season-ending surgery in June. His player option had various escalators, all of which he missed because of the injuries, that could have increased its value to $3MM. Instead, it will be just $1MM, which he seems likely to exercise, given his uncertain health outlook.

Keone Kela, $800K club option with no buyout (29): Kela signed a one-year, $1.2MM contract with the Padres last winter but only logged 10 2/3 innings before going on the shelf and requiring Tommy John surgery. His contract contained a clause that, in the event of such a circumstance, the Padres would get a club option for 2022. The surgery took place in May, meaning Kela will likely miss some of next season but could still return before the midway point. Given Kela’s history of solid results and that the option is just barely above league average, it seems an easy call for the Padres to pick it up.

* Between 50 and 75 batters faced in relief

Previous installments in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, center field, corner outfield, starting pitchers, left-handed relief.

Orioles’ Breakout Reliever Should Be In Demand This Winter

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The Orioles are coming off their fourth consecutive season posting one of the five worst records in MLB. It is very slowly becoming easier to see the potential for better days, with top prospects Adley Rutschman and Grayson Rodriguez soon to join breakout star Cedric Mullins and solid young players like Austin Hays and Ryan Mountcastle at the big league level.

Baltimore should be better in 2022 than they’ve been over the last few seasons, but they’re not on the verge of contention. The O’s front office probably views 2023 and beyond as a more realistic window to compete. If that’s the case, then GM Mike Elias figures to listen to offers on Cole Sulser, whose surprising 2021 season should make him a prime trade target for clubs this winter.

Sulser had appeared briefly in the majors before this year. He broke in with Tampa Bay in 2019, then was claimed off waivers by Baltimore over the following offseason. He was hit around in his early big league time, but his track record of posting huge strikeout numbers in the minors inspired the Baltimore front office to give him another opportunity. Sulser worked in low-leverage situations for the first couple months, but he proved to be one of the few reliable bullpen options for manager Brandon Hyde. By late June, Hyde was giving him more important innings.

Thanks to that strong first few months, he reportedly drew a bit of interest at the trade deadline. There’s no indication a deal ever got close this summer, but teams should be more motivated to land Sulser now. From July 31 onward, the right-hander tossed 25 innings of 2.52 ERA ball while holding opponents to a .207/.247/.304 slash line. Sulser’s strikeout rate actually ticked down from his early season level, but he paired that with a corresponding drop in walks.

Overall, Sulser’s coming off a 2021 campaign in which he worked 63 1/3 frames with a 2.70 ERA/3.45 SIERA. He punched out a solid 28.4% of batters faced while only walking 8.9% of his opponents. Despite middle-of-the-road velocity, Sulser racked up plenty of whiffs on a backspinning four-seam fastball which he generally featured up in the strike zone. He backed that up with a solid changeup that he located consistently down and arm side, an effective weapon that was crucial in neutralizing left-handed hitters (who hit .186/.270/.274 in 127 plate appearances).

Sulser has missed bats in both Triple-A and the big leagues. He throws strikes at a strong clip, succeeded in higher-leverage situations, and is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate. Contending clubs are always on the lookout for bullpen help, and Sulser has a strong all-around profile.

Equally appealing is Sulser’s contractual outlook. He’s not slated to reach arbitration eligibility until the conclusion of next season. Barring changes to the service structure in the next collective bargaining agreement, he’d remain under club control for three seasons thereafter. That affordability should appeal to both low-payroll clubs as well as bigger spenders intent on staying below the luxury tax threshold.

That remaining control means the Orioles don’t have to trade Sulser this offseason, but it seems likely they’d be open if made a strong enough offer. A late bloomer, he’s already 31 years old (32 in March). Baltimore probably won’t be in position to contend before Sulser turns 33 or 34.

Relief pitchers also tend to be volatile, so Elias and his staff could see this winter as the best opportunity to move Sulser for a strong prospect return. The O’s reportedly fielded interest in Tanner Scott and Paul Fry at the deadline but elected to hold both players. Each had an atrocious second half that likely sapped the bulk of their trade value. It’s fair to wonder if the front office would rather strike relatively early on a Sulser deal than risk a similar downturn in production from him next summer.

Sulser’s breakout performance could result in his changing teams in the coming months. Still buried at the bottom of the standings, the O’s front office figures to continue to jump at opportunities to stockpile young talent as they progress through their massive rebuilding project. Turning a fairly recent waiver claim into a solid prospect or two makes plenty of sense for Baltimore, while Sulser might have pitched his way into more immediate contention.

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals have already gotten a jump on their offseason business, and with some money likely available to be spent, some major upgrades could be made to the 2022 roster.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Nolan Arenado, 3B: $164MM through 2027 (Arenado has declined to use his opt-out clause following the season; he can opt out of contract following 2022 season)
  • Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $77MM through 2024
  • Miles Mikolas, SP: $33.5MM through 2023
  • Adam Wainwright, SP: $17.5MM through 2022
  • Paul DeJong, SS: $17MM through 2023 (includes $2MM buyout of $12.5MM club option for 2024)(Cardinals also have $15MM club option for 2025 season, with a $1MM buyout)
  • Yadier Molina, C: $10MM through 2022

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2022 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Matt Carpenter, IF: $18.5MM club option for 2022 ($2MM buyout)
  • Carlos Martinez, SP: $17MM club option for 2022 ($500K buyout)(Cardinals also have $18M club option for 2023 season, with a $500K buyout)

Free Agents

While the Cardinals’ club-record 17-game winning streak was a nice twist for this year’s squad, the late-season surge has almost become routine in St. Louis.  Over the last six years, the Cards are 239-238 in the first halves of seasons, and then a whopping 229-162 in the second half.

As fun as these late charges are, St. Louis fans probably wouldn’t mind a team that can actually bank a few more wins earlier in the year, since the Cardinals have only one division title in those six seasons.  A few more wins in October also wouldn’t hurt; the Cards fell short in the playoffs for the third straight year, losing to the Dodgers in the NL Wild Card game.

Despite another early postseason exit, it was assumed that manager Mike Shildt’s job was perfectly safe, which is why his firing on Oct. 14 caught many in baseball by surprise.  In the phrasing of president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, there were simply too many “philosophical differences” between Shildt and the front office for the relationship to continue, and thus bench coach Oliver Marmol was promoted to the top job in the dugout after the team held a relatively brief managerial search.

The 35-year-old Marmol is baseball’s youngest manager, though he has long been considered a future managerial candidate and (with his entire 15-year professional spent in the St. Louis organization) is no stranger to “The Cardinal Way.”  He won’t have the benefit of a learning curve, however, as Cards fans are getting impatient after eight seasons without a World Series appearance.

Despite the deflating ending, there are plenty of positives to be found from the Cards’ season.  Nolan Arenado came as advertised, Edmundo Sosa emerged as a nice surprise in the middle infield, and the Cardinals’ outfield went from a question mark to a major strength.  Tyler O’Neill had a breakout year, Dylan Carlson had a strong showing in his first full MLB season, and Harrison Bader made a case for himself as a regular by hitting well against both left-handed and right-handed pitching.  Considering that all three also displayed standout defense in addition to their strong hitting, the Cards suddenly had one of baseball’s top all-around outfield trios.

With the three outfielders all blossoming at once, 2021 had some vague feeling of a changing of the guard in St. Louis, and yet how different could things really be with Adam Wainwright still throwing to Yadier Molina?  After the two franchise icons were re-signed relatively late last offseason, the Cardinals wasted no time in arranging reunions for 2022, signing Molina to a one-year extension in August and then inking Wainwright to another one-year pact in September.

Molina has announced that 2022 will be his final season, so the catcher will finally be hanging up the cleats after 19 years in the majors.  Even in his age-38 season, Molina was still delivering quality defense and roughly average offensive production for a catcher, and his game-calling skills and clubhouse leadership are valued almost beyond measure in St. Louis.

Wainwright will return with a hefty raise, going from $8MM in 2021 to $17.5MM next season thanks to an outstanding year that could net him some down-ballot Cy Young Award votes.  Though it seemed Wainwright’s career was winding down after a pair of injury-plagued and generally lackluster seasons in 2017-18, the veteran right-hander has found a second wind, and he has quietly been one of baseball’s better starters over the last two years.

Re-signing Molina and Wainwright for a collective $10.5MM increase on their 2021 salaries might have been a little unexpected for the St. Louis front office, yet it is certainly a price the team is comfortable paying, particularly since a lot of other money is coming off the books.  Longtime Cardinals Matt Carpenter and Carlos Martinez have multiple seasons of struggles now under their belts, and the Cards are sure to decline expensive club options on both players.

Andrew Miller’s free agency opens up another $12MM in salary, and the Cardinals will also be entirely free of Dexter Fowler’s contract.  That puts the payroll for 2022 at roughly $137.22MM, per Roster Resource.  Since the Cardinals’ payroll approached $174MM at the end of the 2019 season, there would seem to be room for Mozeliak to add at least one more big contract.

Between Arenado, Molina, O’Neill, Carlson, Bader, and the ever-dangerous Paul Goldschmidt, the Cardinals already have a lot of their position player mix settled.  There is much to be decided with the middle infield, however, and the possibility of the DH coming to the National League in the next collective bargaining agreement means that more offense could be required.  Ideally, that offense would come from a left-handed bat or two, in order to balance out a largely right-handed Cardinals lineup.  Adding some left-handed thump would give the Cards some flexibility to sign another right-handed bench bat…like, for instance, Albert Pujols in what might be the St. Louis legend’s final Major League season.

Turning back to the middle infield, Sosa, Paul DeJong, and Tommy Edman are all fantastic defenders, so they all bring something to the table even if they’re not hitting.  That said, DeJong and Edman have both been below-average hitters for each of the last two seasons.  And, as fun as Sosa’s 2021 was, there isn’t much in his minor league resume or in his brief MLB career to suggest that he can now be counted on as a reliable bat.

DeJong is by far the most expensive of the trio, so he’d be the most difficult to move if the Cardinals did decide to make a middle infield change.  However, the $17MM remaining on DeJong’s contract isn’t an onerous sum, especially since he at least offers elite defense and some decent home run pop.  As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently illustrated, a team that isn’t willing or able to spend at the top of this year’s free agent shortstop market could turn to a DeJong trade as a backup plan, or perhaps a team that loses its star shortstop (e.g. the Rockies or Astros) could see DeJong as a something of a short-term replacement.

Could the Cardinals themselves land one of the names from that star-studded shortstop class?  The rumors of Trevor Story eventually joining his friend Arenado in St. Louis have percolated practically since Arenado was acquired.  A big left-handed bat like Corey Seager would be a perfect fit for the Cards’ needs.  Or, maybe the Cardinals’ play would be to keep DeJong and Sosa at shortstop, move Edman around the diamond as a utilityman, and acquire a new everyday second baseman.  Marcus Semien, Chris Taylor, or Eduardo Escobar are all options on this front depending on how much of a financial splash St. Louis is willing to make.  That trio can all play multiple positions, and Taylor could also figure into the outfield mix, just to guard against any regression from the starting trio.

It is also possible the Cardinals have a left-handed hitting middle infield solution already on deck.  Top prospect Nolan Gorman has been showing some promise as a second baseman, and his power bat looks ready enough for an MLB debut in 2022.  The Cardinals could give Gorman a look at the keystone and instead save their money for a big addition to the rotation.

As tremendous as Wainwright has been, going into a season counting on a 40-year-old to be the ace of a staff is an obvious risk.  The next three pitchers penciled into next year’s rotation (Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Dakota Hudson) combined for 131 2/3 innings in 2021 due to injuries and, in the case of Hudson’s Tommy John rehab, recovery from past injuries.  If Wainwright keeps fighting off Father Time and any or all of Flaherty, Mikolas, and Hudson return to their 2019 form, the front of the Cardinals’ rotation looks quite strong.

If not, the Cards run the risk of repeating this past summer, when injuries so badly frayed the team’s depth.  Shopping at the top of the market for a frontline ace immediately removes some of the questions from the pitching mix, as the Cardinals could then be more confident that they have enough arms to not only withstand injury, but perhaps to help bolster the bullpen, or even to dangle as trade chips at the deadline.

St. Louis native Max Scherzer has long been coveted by Cardinals fans, and perhaps the veteran would like to cap off his outstanding career by trying to bring another title back to The Gateway City.  Or, Marcus Stroman’s grounder-heavy approach could be even more effective if he was pitching in front of the Cards’ terrific defense.  Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray also stand out on the free agent market, or if Mozeliak prefers to swing another trade, he could check in with a team like the Athletics, as Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt are two members of Oakland’s large and increasingly pricey arbitration class.

Trade deadline additions Jon Lester and J.A. Happ bailed the Cards out by tossing some quality innings, and a reunion with either free agent isn’t out of the question.  The same goes for Kwang Hyun Kim.  While Kim has also had his share of injury concerns and his peripheral numbers aren’t anything special, the southpaw has posted a 2.97 ERA over his 145 2/3 innings in Major League Baseball.

Turning to the in-house names, Jake Woodford is available to start or perhaps work as a swingman, Johan Oviedo gained more experience in 2021, top prospect Matthew Liberatore is knocking on the door, and the Cardinals are hopeful that at least one of Jordan Hicks or Alex Reyes can be healthy enough to be stretched out as starters.  Hicks made a pair of Arizona Fall League starts, and the Cards will at least take a look at him in a starting role next spring (Twitter link via The Athletic’s Katie Woo).

Any of these pitchers could also be used in the bullpen, and the relief corps (like basically every other aspect of the team) rounded itself into a strength for the late-season surge.  Giovanny Gallegos pitched well all season and stepped up as the first-choice closer down the stretch.  St. Louis will probably add an external veteran or two to the pen, so the team could get someone with some closing experience to act as a safety net.  Hicks or Reyes could also again factor into save situations, depending on what ends up happening with their rotation chances.

The Cardinals’ penchant for late comebacks has tended to alleviate some of the pressure on Mozeliak, but the Shildt firing might have removed whatever slack the fanbase has been willing to grant.  Marmol is now the third manager hired by Mozeliak, so the pressure will only increase on the longtime executive to get the Cards back over the playoff hump.  Could another big swing be in the works?  Time will tell, but the Cardinals have the payroll space and perhaps some increased urgency to make a splash.

Which Draft Picks Each Team Would Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent

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The collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1st, and it’s unclear whether its rules for draft pick compensation will remain in place for the 2021-22 offseason, whenever teams eventually sign free agents.  It’s at least possible that the current rules will be used once more.  We know that the qualifying offer is set at $18.4MM this winter, and by mid-November we’ll know which players received and turned down a QO.  If those players sign with new teams, here’s a look at the draft picks each signing club would lose – if the old rules are used.

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Dodgers, Padres

If either of these teams signs a qualified free agent from another team, it must forfeit its second-highest and fifth-highest pick in the 2022 draft. The team will also have its international signing bonus pool reduced by $1MM. Both teams could plausibly sign a qualified free agent, though the Dodgers have significantly more payroll space.

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Brewers, Diamondbacks, Guardians, Marlins, Mariners, Orioles, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers, Twins

These 13 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax. If one of these teams signs a qualified free agent, it forfeits its third-highest pick. These teams face the smallest draft pick penalty.  Of this group, the Mariners and Tigers seem to be the most likely to sign a qualified free agent, but others like the Twins and Marlins are possible.

All Other Teams: Angels, Astros, Athletics, Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Cubs, Giants, Mets, Nationals, Phillies, Rangers, Red Sox, White Sox, Yankees

These 15 remaining teams would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K. The penalty is something of a middle ground.  The Mets are of particular note: due to their failure to sign Kumar Rocker, they pick at both #11 and #14 in 2022, making that #14 pick subject to forfeiture.

What happens if a team signs two qualified free agents? The CBA calls for forfeiture of the next highest available draft pick. For example, if a team has already lost its second and fifth-highest picks and it signs a second qualified free agent, it would lose its third and sixth-highest picks. So as in the past, if you’ve already signed one qualified free agent, the draft pick cost to sign another is reduced.

Trade Candidate: Paul DeJong

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One of the biggest decisions for the Cardinals this winter is how to handle the shortstop position. That hasn’t been the case in a while. Paul DeJong had a great rookie season in 2017, and he’s been the Cards’ Opening Day shortstop for each of the four seasons since.

Going into 2022, it no longer seems to be DeJong’s job. That rookie season was propped up by a .349 batting average on balls in play that DeJong never seemed likely to sustain, but he was a solid hitter over the next couple years. Coupled with high-end defensive metrics, he was still a highly valuable player. DeJong’s bat has taken another step down over the last two years, though, and that seemingly puts his future with the organization in question.

Since the start of 2020, DeJong has tallied 576 plate appearances, nearly the equivalent of a typical season. He’s hit just .213/.295/.378, a mark that makes him fourteen percentage points below the league average by measure of wRC+. DeJong still brings some power upside, popping 22 home runs with a .165 ISO (slugging minus batting average) that’s right around average. He has struck out in an elevated 26.6% of his trips to the plate, though. Paired with a very low .254 BABIP, that has led DeJong to post one of the lower batting averages and on-base marks among regular players.

DeJong is still generally effective at barreling balls up, but he’s also had far too many wasted plate appearances. He’s an extreme fly ball hitter, which can be a bit of a double-edged sword. Hitting the ball in the air gives a player plenty of opportunities to do damage, but weakly hit fly balls aren’t especially useful. DeJong has had his share of softly hit balls in the air, with a 90.9 MPH average exit velocity on air balls that ranks in the 42nd percentile leaguewide (minimum 1000 pitches seen). That middle-of-the-road batted ball quality has come as DeJong’s contact rate has dropped a few percentage points over the past two seasons, falling from roughly league average to a bit below.

While DeJong hasn’t been an especially productive hitter in recent seasons, he hasn’t been without value. Defensive metrics have still pegged him as a solid or better defender. Over the past two seasons, DeJong has rated as six runs above average at shortstop by DRS, while Statcast has him at two plays above average. Even average play at shortstop is valuable, and DeJong’s probably at least a tick above par defensively.

Because of that defensive acumen, DeJong has been valued at around two wins above replacement since the start of 2020 by both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. That’s roughly league average for the amount he has played. So even with his bat going backwards, DeJong’s still a capable player who is just two years removed from an All-Star berth. He’d be an upgrade over some teams’ current shortstop situations.

Speculatively speaking, the Yankees, Phillies, Nationals, Angels, Rangers, A’s, Astros, Tigers and Twins are among the teams who might be in the shortstop market this winter. With a star-studded crop of free agent shortstops, DeJong won’t be priority number one for any of those clubs. They can’t all land high-end free agent options, though, and some could view DeJong as a reasonable fallback option.

In March 2018, DeJong and the Cardinals agreed on a contract extension, the guaranteed portion of which runs through 2023. He’ll make $6MM next season and $9MM the following year, and he’s guaranteed at least a $2MM buyout on a 2024 club option valued at $12.5MM. The contract also contains another club option covering 2025. Given DeJong’s offensive struggles the past couple seasons, that deal no longer looks like a massive bargain. But it’s certainly not an outlandish detriment to a team’s finances either, and the two options give a potential acquiring team some upside if DeJong manages to turn things around at the dish.

That all leads to an interesting offseason decision for the St. Louis front office. DeJong’s 2022 salary isn’t outlandish, but they might want to look into the top shortstops available themselves. Alternatively, they could trade DeJong and rely on the player who became the de facto shortstop down the stretch this past season: Edmundo Sosa.

Sosa has long been viewed by public prospect evaluators as a future glove-first utilityman. He outperformed those expectations as a rookie, though, hitting .271/.346/.389 with six homers in 326 plate appearances. Sosa didn’t walk or hit for much power, but his aggressive approach helped keep his strikeouts low as well.

Turning shortstop over to Sosa based on half a season’s worth of work would be a risk, but he did enough down the stretch to seemingly surpass DeJong on the organizational depth chart. It’d be defensible to give Sosa a chance to seize the job, particularly given this regime’s solid track record in developing position players who overperform their general prospect expectations.

How to handle the shortstop position going into 2022 is a key question for president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, GM Mike Girsch and the rest of the front office. That’s unfamiliar territory in St. Louis, but DeJong’s recent drop-off at the dish makes it possible he could wind up on the move in the coming months.

Free Agent Faceoff: Kevin Gausman Vs. Robbie Ray

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There are a few options for teams playing at the top of the starting pitching market to choose from this winter. Max Scherzer should land the highest average annual value, but his age (37) might cap the length of those offers at three years. Carlos Rodón had an utterly dominant platform year, but he dealt with some shoulder concerns at the end of the season that could be a red flag for teams. Marcus Stroman has a long track record of durability, great strike-throwing and elite ground-ball numbers, but he doesn’t miss bats the way most teams covet from their top-of-the-rotation arms.

It’s not out of the question someone from that trio could land a deal that surpasses general expectations. It seems more likely, though, that Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray will ultimately wind up battling one another for the highest overall guarantee among pitchers. Let’s dig into each player’s profile to determine which one teams should have at the top of their preference lists.

For the first few seasons of his career, Gausman occasionally flashed the potential that had made him a top five draft pick. But he also had bouts of inconsistency and struggled badly enough in 2019 to be waived by the Braves and then non-tendered by the Reds, who had plucked him off the wire.

Since signing with the Giants over the 2019-20 offseason, Gausman has taken his game to a new level. His 3.62 ERA in 2020 was among the best marks of his career, and even that belied elite strikeout and walk numbers. That came in only twelve outings because of the shortened season, and Gausman accepted a qualifying offer last winter in hopes of proving he’d markedly improved over a bigger body of work.

Betting on himself is in position to pay off handsomely. Gausman stayed healthy all year, working 192 innings of 2.81 ERA ball. He didn’t quite sustain his 2020 strikeout rate, but this past season’s 29.3% mark still checked in fourteenth among the 129 hurlers with 100+ innings. Gausman’s 15.3% swinging strike rate was even more impressive, placing fifth among that same group. He’ll now market back-to-back great years of performance. He has missed bats at an elite level for the past few seasons, and the righty has always had plus control.

There’s not a whole lot to nitpick about Gausman’s numbers, although it’s at least worth considering that he succeeds somewhat non-traditionally. He’s tinkered with different breaking pitches but has never found an effective one. Instead, he leaned more heavily than ever on his four-seam fastball (52.7%) and splitter (35.3%) in 2021. Per Statcast, Gausman was one of just fourteen starting pitchers to use a split more than 10% of the time. Most teams are probably willing to look past that unconventional repertoire, since Gausman now has a multi-year track record of great play. Still, it’s a lot more common to see aces with a Ray-like arsenal (primarily fastball-slider), and that could be a factor for some clubs.

Great as Gausman was this past season, Ray was arguably better. The southpaw posted a 2.84 ERA over 193 1/3 frames. He thrived in a division that sent three other teams to the playoffs and split his year between a trio of home ballparks, all of which seemed to be favorable for hitters. Gausman spent the year in the National League, where he’d get to face the opposing pitcher on most nights; Ray wasn’t as fortunate pitching in the American League. And while Gausman turns 31 in January, Ray will pitch almost all of next season at age-30 before turning 31 in October.

Ray’s underlying metrics were similarly elite. He fanned 32.1% of opponents, the sixth-highest mark leaguewide. Ray checked in one spot ahead of Gausman on the swinging strike rate leaderboard, with his 15.5% mark ranking fourth. When batters did make contact against Ray, they were more successful than they’d been hitting against Gausman. Ray was more prone to hard contact and fly balls, and he indeed gave up more home runs. But on a batter-by-batter basis, they were similarly effective at preventing baserunners. Opponents hit .210/.267/.401 against Ray; they batted .210/.264/.345 off Gausman.

Of course, teams will take the players’ pre-2021 bodies of work into account when making a decision of this magnitude. For Gausman versus Ray, that only makes things more complicated. While Gausman was great in 2020, Ray had an awful season. He walked 17.9% of batters faced that year, posting a 6.62 ERA in 51 2/3 innings. It was a nightmarish year, but it’s also easy to see teams writing that off as a fluke. Not only was 2020 a season of inherent small samples, Ray made an obvious alteration to his throwing mechanics entering that year. Clearly, Ray’s pre-2020 adjustments negatively impacted his control, but he returned to his original throwing motion in 2021, as he explained to Kaitlyn McGrath of the Athletic last month.

While Gausman’s 2020 was unquestionably better than Ray’s, the latter had the better career track record going into that year. He was an All-Star in 2017, a year in which he finished seventh in NL Cy Young Award voting. He had a top ten strikeout rate (minimum 100 innings) every season from 2016-19. So while Ray was one of the worst pitchers in baseball in 2020, he certainly hasn’t come out of nowhere.

To recap: Gausman and Ray had similarly elite platform seasons. The former was also great in 2020, while the latter had a terrible season. Ray was far better before 2020, though, and he’s nearly a full year younger. Now, we’ll turn it over to the readership. Whom should teams looking to make a splash in free agency this winter prefer: Gausman or Ray?

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Previewing The 2021-22 Free Agent Class: Left-Handed Relief

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We’ve gone position by position to cover the upcoming free agent class at MLBTR over the past few weeks. We’ve already gone around the diamond and covered the starting pitching market, leaving just the relievers remaining.

Today, we’ll look at the southpaws. It’s a rather sparse class at the top, meaning teams may be left to scour the non-tender or trade markets in their search for relief targets. It’s also possible teams look into some of the free agent starters available with an eye towards identifying a candidate who could be particularly well-suited for a bullpen conversion.

Top Tier

Aaron Loup (34 next April): A longtime member of the Blue Jays’ relief corps, Loup has bounced around the league a bit in journeyman fashion over the past couple seasons. He’s coming off an utterly dominant showing with the Mets, though, posting a 0.95 ERA over 56 2/3 innings. Loup punched out 26.1% of opposing hitters while walking just 7.3% and racked up grounders on over half the balls in play against him while allowing just six extra-base hits all year.

No one could reasonably expect Loup to continue to be that unhittable. He doesn’t throw hard, and he’s been more consistently good than overpowering throughout his career. Loup rarely walks batters, though, and he’s always done well to keep the ball in the yard and avoid especially damaging contact. Going back two seasons, he’s also held right-handed hitters to a .205/.276/.311 line with similarly strong strikeout and walk numbers. Despite being a low-slot lefty, Loup doesn’t need to only be deployed situationally. He’d be a valuable addition to any bullpen and stands a good chance of landing a multi-year deal this winter.

Brooks Raley (33): Unlike Loup, Raley didn’t have an especially impressive ERA (4.78). That belies swing-and-miss stuff that’s arguably the best in the class. Raley punched out 31.7% of opposing hitters while generating whiffs on 14.5% of his offerings, a mark that ranked 40th among the 255 relievers with 30+ innings pitched. Teams are always looking for strikeout stuff in the middle to late innings, and Raley has that despite lacking huge velocity.

Raley also has back-to-back seasons ranking as the best pitcher in the league at suppressing average exit velocity and hard contact. That’s probably not a coincidence, although there’s a rather notable discrepancy based on the opposing hitter’s handedness. Raley has been utterly dominant against lefties (.195/.262/.221), but right-handed hitters tagged him for six homers and a .259/.333/.463 slash line. With the three-batter minimum rule in place, teams could see those drastic platoon splits as a red flag, but Raley’s complete control of left-handed hitters could still land him a multi-year deal.

Andrew Chafin (31): Chafin has been a reliable bullpen workhorse for a while, and he’s coming off a career-best showing between the Cubs and A’s. He posted a 1.83 ERA over 68 2/3 frames, walking a personal-low 7.1% of batters faced. Chafin’s strikeout and ground-ball rates are only around league average, but his slider befuddled hitters from both sides of the plate, and a signing team could have him turn to that wipeout offering a bit more often in hopes of racking up a few more whiffs.

Chafin was leveraged situationally quite a bit early in his career, but he’s adapted to the three-batter minimum era with ease. Right-handed hitters have just a .205/.262/.331 line against him going back to the start of 2020, while he’s held southpaws to a .190/.266/.267 mark in that time. As with Loup and Raley, Chafin has a good shot at a two-year contract.

Tony Watson (36): Watson’s a quietly reliable middle relief option. He’s not overpowering, but he throws strikes and generally induces a fair amount of grounders. Watson posted a 3.92 ERA in 57 1/3 innings this year split between the Angels and Giants, his tenth sub-4.00 showing in eleven big league seasons. At his age, Watson looks less likely than the others in this tier to land a second guaranteed year, but he’s one of the better bets around to offer solid production year in and year out.

Former All-Stars Looking To Bounce Back

Brad Hand (32): Hand was one of the game’s best relievers from 2016-20. His velocity showed a worrisome dip last season and resulted in Cleveland declining his club option, but Hand signed with the Nationals and continued to perform fairly well through this season’s first half. He tossed 42 2/3 innings of 3.59 ERA ball with Washington, albeit with a concerning drop in strikeouts despite his velocity bouncing back.

Traded to the Blue Jays at the deadline, Hand had a terrible month in Toronto and was designated for assignment. He had a fine final month after being claimed off waivers by the Mets, but his swing-and-miss stuff was never present at any of his three stops. Hand has an accomplished track record, and his bottom line numbers with Washington and New York were fine. But the huge drop-off in swinging strikes is going to be a red flag for teams.

Sean Doolittle (35): Doolittle was a dominant closer for a good chunk of the last decade, but he missed most of last season with injury and was designated for assignment by the Reds midway through this year. Doolittle’s four-seam fastball heavy approach has always led to high fly-ball rates, but his profile has become more extreme with age. That might make him an imperfect fit in hitter-friendly home ballparks, but Doolittle still has some selling points.

He continues to run one of the higher rates of infield fly balls in the league, racking up plenty of harmless pop-ups. And while his strikeout rate and swinging strike rate have dipped from peak levels, they remain right around the league average overall. Doolittle might not be an ideal high-leverage option at this point in his career, but he could still be a solid middle innings piece in the right environment.

Andrew Miller (36): Miller has had an ERA above 4.00 in three of the last four years. His once-elite strikeout rate dipped to league average this past season, and opposing hitters are no longer chasing pitches outside the strike zone the way they used to as Miller’s average fastball velocity has fallen below 90 MPH.

Miller’s a respected clubhouse presence, and he’s continued to stifle same-handed hitters. Over the past two seasons, lefties have just a .176/.260/.259 line against him. Miller can probably still be effective in a limited situational role, but the three-batter minimum makes it impossible to entirely avoid righties, who have teed off for a .343/.446/.549 line off him since the beginning of 2020. Now 36 years old, Miller’s days of overpowering everyone he faces look to be behind him.

Starter/Relief Hybrids

Andrew Heaney (30): Heaney will get another chance in a team’s rotation next season, although he found himself working in relief with the Yankees down the stretch thanks to a poor year. Heaney posted very good strikeout and walk numbers, but he was one of the most home run prone pitchers in the league, leading to a 5.83 ERA. He’ll be a bounceback rotation candidate, but continued struggles could lead him back to the bullpen at some point.

José Quintana (33): Quintana’s a career-long starter who got pushed into the bullpen midway through this season after struggling in the rotation. He could draw interest in either capacity this winter. Quintana somewhat bizarrely struck out batters at a career-best rate in 2021, although it came with an uptick in walks and home runs. His 4.18 ERA in 28 innings of relief is middling, but Quintana’s walk percentage did come way down after he was moved into shorter stints.

Kwang-hyun Kim (33): Kim has a 2.97 ERA in 145 2/3 innings since coming over from the KBO, much of that time spent as a starter. That’s very strong bottom line production, but Kim has gotten there with underwhelming peripherals driven by extremely low strikeout totals. Kim’s weak contact, ground-ball driven profile paired perfectly with the Cardinals’ stellar infield, but it’s not clear that’d translate nearly as well with a lesser defensive team.

Wade LeBlanc (37): LeBlanc offered some stabilizing innings for the Cardinals this season while working in a swing capacity. The veteran underwent season-ending elbow surgery in early September, although he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training. LeBlanc doesn’t throw hard or miss many bats, but he’s a capable strike-thrower who could offer starting and/or multi-inning relief depth for clubs.

Matt Moore (32): Moore had a solid 2020 campaign with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks of Nippon Professional Baseball. The former All-Star’s return to the U.S. didn’t go as planned, however, as Moore struggled badly enough to lose his spot in the Phillies’ rotation midseason. He continued to struggle upon moving to the bullpen, working to a 5.40 ERA with a below-average 17.4% strikeout rate in relief. He might be limited to minor league offers this winter.

Hyeon-jong Yang (34): Yang split his season between the Rangers’ rotation and bullpen. He posted a 4.87 ERA in 20 1/3 frames of relief, striking out just 11.8% of batters faced. It has already been reported that the longtime Kia Tigers star would like to return to his native South Korea.

Depth Types

Fernando Abad (36): Abad worked 17 2/3 innings of 5.60 ERA ball late in the season for the Orioles, his first MLB action since 2019. He’ll probably be looking at minor league offers again this winter.

Luis Avilán (32): Avilán’s a generally accomplished lefty specialist. Unfortunately, he had to undergo Tommy John surgery in late April and could miss the first few months of next season.

Alberto Baldonado (29): A longtime minor leaguer, Baldonado got a look with the Nationals late in the season. He missed a decent number of bats but struggled with control and posted an 8.44 ERA.

Travis Bergen (28): Bergen had a 1.69 ERA for the Blue Jays, but it came with just six strikeouts and eight walks in 10 2/3 innings before he was outrighted off the 40-man roster.

Jesse Biddle (30): Biddle gets a lot of grounders, but his velocity dipped a bit this season and he’s had persistent issues with walks. He was outrighted off the Braves’ roster in May.

Ryan Buchter (35): Buchter posted four straight seasons of sub-3.00 ERA ball from 2016-19. He’s fallen on hard times over the past couple years, though, including a 6.61 ERA in 16 1/3 frames with the D-Backs before he was released in August.

Alex Claudio (30): Claudio has had some good seasons despite one of the league’s softest fastballs, thriving on command and grounders. His once-pristine walk rates have spiked in recent seasons, however, and the Angels cut him loose in July after he posted a 5.51 ERA across 32 2/3 innings.

Ross Detwiler (36): Almost out of nowhere, Detwiler shattered his previous career-high by striking out 27.1% of opposing hitters this past season. Despite the punchouts, his 9.6% swinging strike rate was still well below the league average, and Detwiler’s formerly elite ground-ball rates dropped off.

Derek Holland (35): Holland has had an ERA above 5.00 in each of the past three seasons. His strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates were all within the realm of the league average this year and he’s capable of shouldering multiple innings out of the bullpen.

T.J. McFarland (32): McFarland is a ground-ball specialist who is best deployed against lefty hitters. He rarely strikes batters out, but he induces grounders on around two-thirds of balls in play and has held same-handed opponents to a .221/.256/.453 line going back to 2020.

Tommy Milone (35): Milone’s a depth swingman option. He throws plenty of strikes and typically earns himself some big league time every season. But he’s one of the softest throwers in the sport, leading to low strikeout totals and a tendency to give up a lot of home runs.

Sean Nolin (32): Nolin returned to the majors in a swing capacity with the Nationals this season. He made ten appearances (five out of the bullpen) and worked 26 2/3 innings of 4.39 ERA ball.

Daniel Norris (28): Norris is still relatively young and has flashed high-end talent in the past, but he’s coming off a nightmarish second half. Solid peripherals led the Brewers to take a deadline day flier on Norris despite his 5.89 ERA with the Tigers. Everything went backwards in Milwaukee, though, as his strikeouts dropped while his walk and homer rates skyrocketed.

Josh Osich (33): Osich typically posts quality ground-ball rates, but he hasn’t posted an ERA below 4.50 since his 2015 rookie campaign with the Giants. He tossed 14 1/3 innings with a 5.02 mark for the Reds this year before being outrighted in late July.

Nick Ramirez (32): Ramirez soaked up plenty of innings in long relief with the Tigers a couple years ago. He hasn’t gotten a very long look over the last couple years, tossing 31 innings of 5.87 ERA ball since the start of 2020.

Kyle Ryan (30): Ryan worked 61 frames with a 3.54 ERA for the Cubs back in 2019, but he’s struggled in limited action over the past couple seasons. Ryan generates plenty of ground-balls, but he doesn’t miss many bats and he’s had difficulty keeping runs off the board recently. Chicago passed him through outright waivers in mid-August.

Héctor Santiago (34): Santiago returned to the majors with the Mariners this year after not pitching in 2020. The veteran did some nice work as a multi-inning relief option, soaking up 26 1/3 frames of 3.42 ERA ball with solid strikeout and walk numbers over thirteen outings. He was suspended for eighty games in late July after testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance. He’ll need to sit out the first three-plus weeks next season to complete that ban.

Tyler Webb (31): Webb pitched to a 2.08 ERA as recently as 2020. This past season was a disaster, though, as he walked 20.7% of opposing hitters on his way to a 13.22 ERA in 16 1/3 frames. Webb was passed through outright waivers in early June.

Players with Options

José Álvarez (32): Exercising Álvarez’s $1.5MM club option (which contains a $100K buyout) should be a very easy call for the Giants. He worked 64 2/3 frames of 2.37 ERA ball, inducing grounders on a little more than half the balls in play against him.

Jake Diekman (35): The A’s have a $4MM club option on Diekman’s services for 2022. That comes with a $750K buyout, making it a $3.25MM call for the Oakland front office. That one could seemingly go either way, as Diekman still missed plenty of bats (31.7% strikeout rate, 13.2% swinging strike percentage) but he’s always struggled with control and had uncharacteristic home run issues in 2021.

Martín Pérez (30): The Red Sox can bring Pérez back for $6MM or buy him out for $500K. The latter looks more likely after Pérez lost his rotation spot in early August. He’s been fine but hardly overwhelming since moving to relief, working to a 4.50 ERA across 14 innings. Teams could consider him as a depth option for the rotation or bullpen this winter, assuming the Sox indeed cut him loose.

Joely Rodríguez (30): The Yankees hold a $3MM club option on Rodríguez for 2022. Picked up from the Rangers at the trade deadline alongside Joey Gallo, Rodríguez pitched well down the stretch. Over 19 frames, he worked to a 2.84 ERA with a strong 50% ground-ball rate. The option looks affordable enough to be picked up.

Justin Wilson (34): Wilson has a $2.3MM player option for next season. If he declines, the Reds would hold either a $7.15MM club option or have to buy him out for $1.15MM. Cincinnati would almost certainly not exercise their end of the option, so Wilson has to decide whether to return for $2.3MM or take the buyout and hope to top the $1.15MM difference on the open market. It wasn’t a great season for the generally reliable Wilson, who posted a 5.29 ERA between the Yankees and Reds. His ERA was much better following a midseason trade to Cincinnati, but his strikeout and walk numbers at both stops were underwhelming.

Previous installments in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, center field, corner outfield, starting pitcher

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