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Is Kyle Schwarber Better Than This?

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It’s well known that Cubs brass has long revered Kyle Schwarber, the fourth overall pick in 2014 whom the team refused to part with in trades during ensuing seasons. The big-bodied Schwarber was a catcher in his younger days, though there was much skepticism the ex-Indiana Hoosier would carve out a future in the majors behind the plate. Indeed, despite having slimmed down in recent years, Schwarber hasn’t donned the tools of ignorance at all since 2017.

With no DH spot available in the National League and Anthony Rizzo holding down first base, Schwarber has settled in as the Cubs’ left fielder. Reviews have been mixed on Schwarber, who has simultaneously accounted for minus-13 Defensive Runs Saved and a plus-14.6 Ultimate Zone Rating through upward of 2,700 innings in left. The fact that Schwarber hasn’t been unplayable in the outfield is a clear positive, but his left-handed bat will always be his carrying tool. However, despite the hype that has surrounded Schwarber in his career, he hasn’t emerged as a great major league hitter yet.

Schwarber was a tremendous college and minor league offensive performer who immediately made his mark in Chicago as a rookie in 2015, when he slashed .246/.355/.487 (131 wRC+) with 16 home runs across 273 plate appearances. In light of his stellar introduction, expectations were Schwarber would further cement himself as a linchpin of the Cubs’ lineup in 2016. Instead, though, he suffered a torn left ACL and LCL in April of that year and wound up missing all but two regular-season games. To his immense credit, Schwarber became something of a Chicago folk hero in rehabbing quickly enough to return for the World Series that autumn. Schwarber put the exclamation point on his Fall Classic comeback by slashing a fantastic .412/.500/.471 in 20 PA against the Indians to help the Cubs win their first title in 108 years.

The good times were supposed to keep rolling for Schwarber, but his output has been underwhelming since his triumphant return. Dating back to 2017, Schwarber has batted .226/.333/.466 with 74 homers, a 107 wRC+ and 5.6 fWAR over 1,340 trips to the plate. The 26-year-old has essentially been a league-average hitter (101 wRC+) through 344 PA this season, making him an unspectacular part of a team whose weeks-long slump has led to frustration from its higher-ups.

Here’s some much-needed positive news for the Cubs, though: Better days may be ahead for Schwarber. His hard-hit percentage ranks second among all qualified hitters who have totaled at least 100 batted ball-events this year, per Statcast, while his average exit velocity on line drives and fly balls checks in at 13th. Among batters who have accumulated at least 300 PA in 2019, FanGraphs credits Schwarber with the game’s seventh-lowest soft-contact percentage (10.8). Adding to the encouragement, Schwarber has increased his flies/liners while decreasing his grounders compared to 2018. He’s also making more contact while swinging and missing less than he did a year ago. All of that has helped Schwarber maintain his prodigious power despite so-so overall results this year, as he has chipped in 18 HRs with a .234 ISO.

With the above considered, it’s no surprise Schwarber’s expected weighted on-base average (.358) far outdoes his real wOBA (.331). However, just because Schwarber’s hitting the ball hard doesn’t automatically mean his production will positively regress. It doesn’t appear the strikeout-prone Schwarber is a sure bet to ever complement his power with a high batting average or a lofty BABIP (the latter’s at .269 this year, right in line with his career mark), so he has to compensate by drawing walks. Schwarber collected free passes a personal-best 15.3 percent of the time in 2018, assisting in a career-high .356 OBP and helping cancel out a .238 average. But his walk percentage has dropped to 12.5 – not far from his lifetime figure – this year. That’s still easily above average, but the 3 percent fall has limited Schwarber to a .326 OBP that’s barely better than the .322 MLB mean.

Average offensive numbers aren’t going to suffice for Schwarber, who Baseball America wrote in 2015 had a chance to become a “.300-hitting, 30-homer” force in the majors. While Schwarber’s power potential has indeed transferred to the bigs since then, the Cubs continue waiting for the rest of the offensive package to arrive.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Arizona May Have Its Long-Term Catcher

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The Cardinals spent a second-round pick on catcher Carson Kelly in 2012 and saw him continue as a strong prospect in the ensuing years, but he never got a chance to shine as a Redbird. Kelly was instead stuck in the shadow of franchise icon Yadier Molina, who further solidified his place in the organization with a three-year, $60MM extension at the outset of the 2017 season. With Molina locked in at high prices through 2020, the Cardinals finally decided last offseason that Kelly was expendable. They traded the 24-year-old to the Diamondbacks in a package for superstar first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, who has fallen short of expectations in his first few months in St. Louis.

Unlike Goldschmidt, Kelly has thrived in his new environment. Serving as the Diamondbacks’ primary catcher, Kelly has slashed .275/.352/.538 (123 wRC+) with 10 home runs in 193 plate appearances. Most of the right-handed Kelly’s damage at the plate has come versus lefty pitchers, whom he has destroyed for a line of .383/.473/.766 over a small sample of 55 PA, though he has also been playable against righties. Thanks in part to his impressive offensive output, Kelly has already totaled 1.7 fWAR, which ties for seventh among catchers and happens to easily outdo the minus-0.2 Molina has mustered to this point. It even upstages Goldschmidt’s 0.7.

Adding to his value, Kelly has been an outstanding defender in his first year in the desert. That isn’t necessarily a surprise, as Kelly was a lauded backstop during his days as a prospect. Nevertheless, the fact that he’s delivering in that area in his first extensive action in the majors is no doubt comforting to the Diamondbacks.

According to Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric, only 15 catchers have been superior defenders to Kelly this season. He’s the game’s sixth-best blocker and its 24th-ranked pitch framer, per BP, and has also held his own at the less obscure art of throwing out runners. Kelly has caught 9 of 25 would-be base stealers, giving him a 36 percent success rate which ranks 9 percent better than the league-average mark.

While Kelly does indeed look like a legitimate starting catcher, the question is whether he’s this good. On the offensive side, probably not, says Statcast, which indicates there has been substantial luck behind his .368 weighted on-base average. Kelly’s wOBA places him in company with All-Star Gary Sanchez, yet his .311 expected xwOBA aligns him with Tyler Flowers and puts him in the majors’ 30th percentile. Kelly’s also below average in terms of expected batting average (16th percentile), expected slugging percentage (42nd), hard-hit rate (48th) and exit velocity (48th). That said, catchers don’t have to be offensive juggernauts – especially when they’re as adept as Kelly is behind the plate. Backing up BP’s framing numbers, Statcast places Kelly in the league’s 96th percentile in that area.

Although Kelly’s production as a hitter this year may not be sustainable, you don’t need to be a force at the plate to serve as a quality starting catcher. Just 18 backstops, Kelly included, have cleared the 1.0-fWAR bar this season. Furthermore, even if Kelly’s offense wanes, his defensive chops give him a high floor which could help make him the Diamondbacks’ answer at his position for the foreseeable future. Kelly won’t be eligible for arbitration until after 2020 or free agency until the conclusion of the 2024 campaign, so Arizona may not have to look for another primary catcher for a while.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

A Less-Talked-About Giants Trade Chip

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As the baseball world collectively waits for trade season to begin in earnest, the Giants may find more eyes on their team than at any other point in 2019. Entering the season, no one gave the club a chance in a stacked NL West division, and at 39-47, the team is predictably all but out of playoff contention. San Francisco may have the most appealing rental starter on the market in Madison Bumgarner and the most appealing rental reliever in Will Smith. Fellow left-hander Tony Watson is likely to be moved as well, and even Pablo Sandoval has hit his way back onto the rumor circuit.

Sam Dyson | Cody Glenn-USA TODAY Sports

For all the attention placed on that group, righty Sam Dyson is nearly every bit as interesting. That’s not to say that Dyson is an under-the-radar trade chip, as even casual onlookers are well aware that the rebuilding Giants have a wealth of interesting bullpen arms to market this month. But the extent of Dyson’s appeal is somewhat overshadowed by the bigger names the Giants have to sell.

Dyson, who turned 31 back in May, is enjoying his best season since 2016 by virtually any measure and is arguably in the midst of the best year of his career. The ground-ball specialist has pitched to a 2.48 ERA with averages of 7.7 K/9, 1.4 BB/9 and 0.68 HR/9. His sinker’s average velocity is down from its 96.5 mph peak but still sits at a comfortable 94.1 mph. And while Dyson’s 57.3 percent grounder rate is somehow the lowest of his career, it’s also still well above the league average of 43 percent among relievers.

The control Dyson has demonstrated in 2019 is not only the best of his career — it’s among the best in baseball. Only eight qualified relievers have walked a smaller percentage of opponents than the 3.9 percent to whom Dyson has issued a free pass. He’s appeared in 38 games this season, totaling 40 innings of work, and has not issued multiple walks in a single outing. Dyson’s 63.6 percent first-pitch strike rate is a career-high.

Hard contact has also been difficult to come by for opponents of Dyson, as they’ve averaged an exit velocity of just 85.5 mph against him — a mark that puts Dyson in the 94th percentile of MLB pitchers. Right-handed opponents have mustered an awful .202/.237/.281 line against Dyson in 2019, while lefties have only managed a .226/.293/.377 output. Playing his games at San Francisco’s Oracle Park as opposed to Arlington’s Globe Life Park surely has helped Dyson limit homers, but his stinginess on round-trippers is nothing new (career 0.69 HR/9). It’s also worth noting that balls in the air against Dyson in 2019 have averaged 91.2 mph off the bat — a decline even from his strong 2016 campaign (93.2 mph) and a huge departure from the outlier 2017 campaign that saw Texas give up on him (96 mph).

That his 2017 season was an outlier should also be a point of emphasis. It’s tough for a player to shake the label of being traded in a salary dump as Dyson was in ’17. However, the righty notched 70 1/3 innings of 2.69 ERA ball last season with a slightly lower strikeout rate, a higher walk rate and a higher ground-ball rate. More broadly looking at Dyson’s track record dating back to 2014, the only point at which he’s pitched particularly poorly was that 17-game stretch that prompted the Rangers to unload him. Dyson finished that year with an ERA just over 6.00, but he’s checked in with a 2.70 or better in the other five seasons dating back to 2014 (this year included).

Unlike teammates Smith and Watson, Dyson is under club control through the 2020 season. (Well, Watson technically is as well, though he’s unlikely to exercise the player option on his uniquely structured contract.) Dyson is being paid a $5MM salary this season, and while that means he’ll have a relatively notable salary next year after an arbitration raise, even a jump into the $6-7MM range isn’t exorbitant. For a team in need of bullpen help, buying a reasonably affordable second season of Dyson likely sounds better than rolling the dice on a multi-year deal for free-agent relievers — particularly when looking at how poorly this past winter’s group of multi-year contracts for relievers has panned out.

At the same time, there’s little reason for the Giants to hang onto Dyson at that price point when they’re in the nascent stages of their rebuild. And, he’ll have more value at this year’s deadline than he would in the offseason. There’s an argument to be made that the Giants should listen on all of their interesting relievers — even more controllable arms like Reyes Moronta and Trevor Gott — but neither will even be arbitration-eligible next year. Dyson, like Smith and Watson, should be a lock to be moved in the next 26 days barring some kind of injury.

The Giants find themselves in this rebuilding state in large part because of some missteps by the former front-office regime, but that group’s acquisition of Dyson (in exchange for 26-year-old Hunter Cole, who has yet to see the Majors) proved to be a steal. Beyond the 148 innings of strong relief work Dyson has given the Giants since that trade, he now gives first-year president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and his staff a player who ought to net far more than what the Giants gave up to acquire him.

Progress Report: The Eric Hosmer Contract

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In February 2018, with the Padres amid a rebuild and attempting to move closer to relevance, the club made the polarizing decision to sign free-agent first baseman Eric Hosmer to a franchise-record contract. Although there seemingly wasn’t a wide market for the longtime Royal’s services, the Padres gave Hosmer an eight-year deal worth $144MM.

Hosmer stood out at times in Kansas City, including during a World Series-winning campaign in 2015, but fell on his face in other seasons. As a result of Hosmer’s inconsistency as a Royal, there were plenty who either loved or hated the Padres’ choice to hand him a headline-stealing payday. Those who opposed it gained the upper hand in its first year, in which Hosmer hit a meek .253/.322/.398 in 677 plate appearances. He was a below-average offensive player by wRC+ (95) and less than a replacement-level performer by fWAR (minus-0.1).

Considering the beginning of a long-term contract is when a player is supposed to be providing the most value, Hosmer’s woeful 2018 production was downright alarming. The Padres needed a rebound from Hosmer coming into this season, and while he has gotten better, the respected veteran still hasn’t given the Friars much bang for their buck on the field.

The best thing you can say about Hosmer the Padre is that he has been available more than most players. He piled up 157 appearances a year ago and has participated in 86 of the Padres’ 87 games in 2019. Along the way this season, Hosmer has slashed .293/.343/.45 with 13 home runs – just five fewer than last year – over 364 trips to the plate. He has also upped his weighted on-base average/expected wOBA from matching .310s last season to .341/.334 this year. Likewise, the 29-year-old’s 111 wRC+ and 0.7 fWAR count as vast improvements over what he offered in those categories in 2018. They’re still far from great, however. In fact, the average major league first baseman has posted a 110 wRC+ this season. Of course, the average major league first baseman isn’t on a $20MM salary this year or locked into a big-money deal into his 30s.

While FanGraphs credits Hosmer with making more hard contact and less soft contact than he did last season, he continues to amass too many ground balls and too few fly balls. The typical batter hits grounders at an approximately 43 percent rate and flies 36 percent of the time. Hosmer’s at 57.3 and 21.0 in those areas in 2019. It’s hard to muster much in the power department with that combination, as Hosmer’s lifetime ISO (.155) and current ISO (.164) help prove. And Hosmer’s one of the majors’ slowest runners, making his grounder-heavy skill set even less conducive to success. The ongoing grounder overload hasn’t enabled Hosmer to take advantage of a 2019 hard-hit rate which Statcast places in the majors’ 87th percentile or an exit velocity that betters 71 percent of his peers.

Because Hosmer’s also still not walking much (6.9 percent this year, 8.2 lifetime), he continues to rely on a high batting average on balls in play to help buoy his numbers. That has paid off at times – including this season to an extent, as Hosmer’s .337 BABIP represents a 35-point increase over 2018’s. However, during seasons in which Hosmer’s BABIP has sat around average or worse, his production has typically fallen well short of expectations.

In further inauspicious news, the lefty-hitting Hosmer’s amid his second straight abysmal season against same-handed pitchers. Southpaws limited him to an unsightly .179/.240/.287 line in his first year as a Padre. Hosmer has bumped that slash to .250/.320/.324 this season, yet wRC+ indicates it’s still 24 percent worse than average. Struggles versus lefties aren’t anything new for Hosmer, who has stumbled to a .668 OPS and an 81 wRC+ against them over the course of his career.

A season and a half into his contract, the Padres’ choice to pay a premium for an inconsistent platoon first baseman continues to look like a head-scratcher. That’s all the more true when considering they already had well-compensated first baseman Wil Myers on the roster. Myers is now limited to the outfield, where he hasn’t garnered consistent playing time of late because he’s an ill fit in center and the Padres have superior hitters Hunter Renfroe and Franmil Reyes manning the corners.

This has been a positive overall season for long-suffering San Diego, which is hovering around .500 and finds itself in playoff contention. The team still hasn’t benefited as hoped from the Hosmer signing, though, and there aren’t clear signs that’s going to change.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Cool Papa Bell

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No, this isn’t a piece about baseball legend Cool Papa Bell. Try as I might, I couldn’t come up with a catchier title in regards to Pirates first baseman Josh Bell, who has evolved into one of baseball’s premier offensive players in 2019. It’s been something of an unexpected development considering the unspectacular start Bell’s career got off to during his first couple years in the majors.

A second-round pick in 2011, Bell soared up prospect lists in his days in the Pirates’ farm system, ranking as Baseball America’s 38th-best farmhand when the club promoted him to the bigs. Bell first got the call on July 8, 2016, almost exactly three years ago, and has been a mainstay in Pittsburgh since then. Through 2018, though, Bell looked like somewhat of a light hitter relative to his position, not the franchise-caliber masher he has become. While Bell did smack 26 home runs in 2017, he nonetheless entered this year a career .260/.348/.436 batter over 1,355 plate appearances, giving him a 110 wRC+ and a 1.4 fWAR which made him more closely resemble, say, James Loney than Freddie Freeman.

This season has been a completely different story for Bell, who, with 26 homers across 374 PA, has already tied his career high en route to his first All-Star nod. With a .306/.377/.654 line, Bell ranks fourth in the game in wRC+ (158), trailing a decent trio of Cody Bellinger, Mike Trout and Christian Yelich. The 26-year-old Bell has already racked up 2.7 fWAR, almost doubling the mark he posted during his entire career before 2019. Plus, while Bell recorded a mediocre .177 ISO from 2016-18, that number has soared to .349 this year, putting him fourth in the league.

So why the sudden epiphany? For starters, Bell’s pulling the ball more than ever and going opposite field less than at any previous point, all while hitting more fly balls and fewer grounders. That’s an easy recipe for more pop, as is his decrease in infield fly balls. Bell’s pop-up rate stood at upward of 9 percent in each of his prior seasons, but it has plummeted to just over 2 percent this season.

Unsurprisingly, Bell has hit the ball much harder in general. His hard-contact rate has risen by an eye-popping 15 percent since last season, while his soft-hit rate has fallen by almost 10 percent, according to FanGraphs. Only 11 players have outdone Bell in hard-hit percentage. With that in mind, it’s not exactly stunning he ranks near the top of the majors in weighted-on base average (.421) and expected wOBA (.404), per Statcast, which places the switch hitter in elite company in most of its offensive metrics. Bell’s expected batting average (91st percentile), barrel percentage (95th), xwOBA (96th), expected slugging percentage (96th), hard-contact rate (97th) and exit velocity (98th) are all magnificent.

Unlike 2018, when Bell logged a .284 wOBA/.257 xwOBA against breaking pitches, those offerings haven’t fooled him this year. If you’re going to throw a breaking pitch to Bell nowadays, there’s a good chance you’re going to pay. He has hit a ridiculous .455/.460 off them this season, having shown power against them in several quadrants of the strike zone, which the drastic change in FanGraphs’ heatmaps shows between  2018 and ’19.

It’s clear Bell has benefited from a more aggressive approach. He’s swinging at way more pitches, including out of the zone, which has led to less contact, an all-time worst swinging-strike percentage and more strikeouts. But when you’re producing like this, it doesn’t matter. He’s still walking and striking out at better clips than most hitters, evidenced by a K/BB ratio which ranks 50th among 158 qualified batters.

The Pirates have been waiting for a new face of the franchise to rise up since they traded away organizational icon Andrew McCutchen prior to the 2018 campaign. It appears they’ve found his successor in Bell, though the newly established slugger’s days of playing for a relative pittance are nearing an end. Now in his last season on a league-minimum salary, Bell’s on the verge of cashing in during the arbitration process. Considering his 2019 breakout, though, that’s a high-class problem for Pittsburgh.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Better Rental: Madison Bumgarner Or Zack Wheeler?

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It’s fair to say Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner and Mets right-hander Zack Wheeler are the two best soon-to-be free-agent starters who could realistically change teams before the July 31 trade deadline. Neither the Giants nor Mets are in contention, and there haven’t been any rumors about extension talks between the teams and the hurlers. Furthermore, both clubs’ farm systems are lacking, so trading Bumgarner and Wheeler could help the organizations better themselves in that area. The question is: Who’s the more desirable of the pair?

The more impressive track record belongs to Bumgarner, who will turn 30 the day after the deadline. He’s a three-time World Series champion and one of the most successful postseason pitchers in recent memory, which could matter to starter-needy clubs that have their sights set on fall baseball. Bumgarner owns a phenomenal 2.11 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 in 102 1/3 playoff innings, though he hasn’t pitched that deep into the season since 2016. More recently, Bumgarner has morphed into a mid-rotation starter, no longer the front-line stalwart he was when he was helping the Giants to championships.

This season, Bumgarner has pitched to a 4.02 ERA/3.96 FIP with a 35.8 percent groundball rate over 109 2/3 innings, and has seen hitters put up a .332 expected weighted on-base average against his offerings versus a .311 real wOBA. Those are respectable numbers, but they’re not those of a rotation savior. At the same time, though, Bumgarner has produced a K/BB ratio befitting of an ace. With 9.27 K/9 against 1.97 BB/9, he stands 17th in the majors in K/BB ratio (4.71). The fact that Bumgarner has recorded career-best chase and first-pitch strike rates has helped him in that regard.

Wheeler’s also 29, yet he doesn’t have a single inning of playoff experience. Still, there’s a case to be made that he’s a better asset than Bumgarner. This much is clear: On a $5.975MM salary against Bumgarner’s $12MM, Wheeler is noticeably less expensive. And while Bumgarner’s not going to intimidate anyone with his low-90s velocity, Wheeler attacks hitters with one of the hardest fastballs in the game – a pitch that averages upward of 97.2 mph. Wheeler has used his velo to register 9.71 K/9 versus 2.53 BB/9 this year, yet he hasn’t had an easy time preventing runs. Wheeler’s ERA is at a lofty 4.42 through 114 frames, but his FIP’s a much more encouraging 3.63, and he has induced grounders at roughly a 45 percent clip. He’s also outdoing Bumgarner in the wOBA/xwOBA department (.295/.302).

Undoubtedly, Bumgarner or Wheeler is a question playoff-caliber teams seeking starters have asked themselves in recent weeks, and it’s one they’ll continue debating leading up to the deadline. With both pitchers likely on the move in the next four weeks, they may end up having a large amount of say in this year’s playoff race and perhaps the postseason itself. Which of the two would you rather have?

(Poll link for app users)

Remembering The A’s-Cubs 2014 July 4th Special

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July 4th is always a day of pageantry around the game of baseball, though it’s typically quiet on the trade front. Five years ago today, however, the Athletics and Cubs produced some rare fireworks with a memorable swap that created quite the butterfly effect.

The Oakland organization acquired not one, but two top trade targets of that year’s summer market in Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel. Prying both loose nearly a month before the deadline meant coughing up one of the game’s best prospects in Addison Russell, along with a nice secondary piece in Billy McKinney. Pitcher Dan Straily also went to Chicago to help the team fill innings.

This is the swap that forever gives credence to fan and media notions of “packaging” trade chips, a concept that has been mimicked since but remains relatively rare. The Cubs had good reason to put a big asking price on the two hurlers at that stage of the season.

Samardzija, a pitcher long lauded for his talent, had finally come into his own with a 2.83 ERA through 108 innings. He came with another year of arbitration eligibility, leaving ample leverage with the Cubs. The club could have auctioned him closer to the deadline, held him for a winter trade, or pursued an extension over the offseason to come.

Hammel also owned a sub-3.00 ERA at the time the deal came together, making him an excellent rental asset. His $6MM make-good deal worked out better than the Cubs ever could have anticipated. Top Chicago baseball decisionmaker Theo Epstein could plausibly tell his counterpart, Billy Beane of the A’s, that he would be glad to wait to see what he could get for Hammel on July 31st if Oakland wouldn’t pay full retail for both hurlers.

It was easy for the Cubs to pull the trigger when Russell was plugged in as the headliner. He then ranked as one of the dozen or so best prospects in the game. Best of all, he was already playing at the Double-A level, meaning the Cubs had good reason to believe they would get production out of him in the very near term. McKinney was also a significant trade piece, having only just been taken in the first round of the draft in the prior year.

For the Athletics, it goes without saying that this was an all-in move. At the time, the club was dominating the rest of the league, but facing a stern test from the Angels. Oakland’s all-in bid ultimately didn’t quite work out. The A’s went on to make another major summer strike for a starter, adding Jon Lester from the Red Sox. Lester (2.44 ERA) and Samardzija (3.14) threw quite well, while Hammel (4.26) faded but was sturdy enough. But the Athletics were out-raced by the Halos in the AL West. The A’s took a Wild Card slot, but lost one of the most memorable games of recent memory to the eventual American League-champion Royals.

Ironically, after starting that contest, Lester would end up signing with the Cubs in the ensuing offseason. He later said that the trade made it easier for him to imagine playing in a new city after spending his entire career in Boston. He ended up deciding to join Epstein, the former Sox GM, in Chicago….and ultimately played a key role in the club’s curse-breaking championship run.

Russell was also a key contributor in 2016, earning an All-Star nod and finishing the season with 21 home runs in his age-22 campaign. It seemed he was on his way to being a long-term stalwart and perhaps even a Chicago legend. That has all changed since. After some tepid work on the field, Russell was suspended following accusations of domestic abuse. The team has stuck with him since, but the sheen has long since worn off.

McKinney never appeared in a MLB uniform for the Cubs, but he would help the team out in another way. He again featured as a secondary piece in another major trade, going along with another elite infield prospect Gleyber Torres in the 2016 deal that landed the Cubs closer Aroldis Chapman and helped spur the team’s title run. Torres was no doubt seen as somewhat more expendable due to the presence of Russell and other good young infielders (especially Javy Baez, who has eclipsed him at short). But it no doubt stings quite a bit to see Torres starring in pinstripes.

This was also the first of a series of seemingly incongruous moves involving Straily. He was sent out in the ensuing offseason in the deal that brought Dexter Fowler to Chicago, beginning a notable chapter all its own for the Cubs organization. (That trade also involved the dearly departed Luis Valbuena.) Straily was swapped to the Padres in the following spring for journeyman catcher Erik Kratz, only to be claimed off waivers days later by the Reds. After a surprising 2016 campaign, Straily was shipped to the Marlins in a deal that landed the Reds then-prospect and current NL Cy Young candidate Luis Castillo (who was briefly a member of the Pads before being forcibly traded back to the Fish). Straily was released this spring after two useful but uninspiring seasons in Miami.

So, what of the two hurlers that spurred all this movement? Hammel may not have been at his best in Oakland, but that only helped the Cubbies get a deal to bring him back. They brought him in for an affordable $20MM over two years and certainly got their money worth. Hammel ended up throwing 337 1/3 innings of 3.79 ERA ball before he was sent back onto the open market, helping the team reach the World Series — though he did not crack the ’16 postseason roster.

Samardzija also ended up in Chicago, but with the cross-town White Sox. That swap allowed the A’s to recoup some of the lost prospect value, and, perhaps, get the last laugh in this whole scenario. In addition to Rangel Ravelo, who reached the majors briefly with the Cardinals, the deal brought in three players that remain in the Oakland organization. Marcus Semien effectively took Russell’s place as the long-term shortstop. That has turned out quite well for Oakland in and of itself, as Semien has easily outperformed Russell of late. He reached 3.7 fWAR last year and has already tabbed 3.1 in a breakout ’19 offensive campaign. The deal also included righty Chris Bassitt and catcher Josh Phegley, each of whom has had some ups and downs but currently features as a key cog for the 2019 A’s.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Trade Candidate: Tanner Roark

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Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner and Mets right-hander Zack Wheeler will garner most of the headlines when it comes to rental starters who could move by the July 31 trade deadline. But for teams that aren’t able to win the bidding for either of them, Reds righty Tanner Roark is seemingly shaping up as a decent consolation price. That is, if the Reds – just 4 1/2 games out of a playoff spot despite being five games under .500 – decide to sell Roark. Even if they keep the 32-year-old through the season, he’ll land on several teams’ radars in free agency during the winter.

Roark has been a mostly solid starting option since his career began in 2013 with the Nationals. He made 141 starts in D.C. from 2013-18, during which he posted a 3.61 ERA/3.94 FIP with 7.06 K/9, 2.55 BB/9 and a 45.1 percent groundball rate. Although Roark was a quality complement to front-end starters Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg in recent years, the Nationals moved on from him last offseason in favor of new acquisitions Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez.

The Reds, seeking to revamp their rotation and make a playoff push in 2019, sent reliever Tanner Rainey to the Nationals for a year of control over Roark. Since then, Roark has held up his end of the bargain for a Cincinnati team whose rotation has indeed taken enormous steps ahead this season. Roark has pitched to a 3.51 ERA/3.86 FIP in 92 1/3 innings and 17 starts, putting him on the cusp of his fourth consecutive season with at least 2.0 fWAR.

An increase in strikeouts has played an important role in Roark’s above-average run prevention in 2019. While he has never been a huge strikeout pitcher, Roark has impressively fanned just under a batter per inning this year. At the same time, he has walked a bit fewer than three per nine, giving him a 3.07 K/BB ratio which sits well above the league mean of 2.65.

Even though Roark has transferred to a home park which is more conducive to HRs, he hasn’t felt the sting thus far. Roark’s groundball percentage has decreased 5 percent since last year and sits at a paltry 35.7 percent, yet his home run-to-fly ball rate has actually dropped a little since 2018 (from 11.7 to 10.8). That has enabled Roark to manage decent numbers at home and on the road. It helps that Roark has generated more infield fly balls, aka automatic outs. At 12.9 percent, he ranks 14th among starters in that category.

Roark has also experienced somewhat of an uptick in velocity since last year. He’s still not going to blow anyone away with his average fastball (92.3 mph), slider (86.2), changeup (84.3) and curveball (76.1), but each pitch has risen around 1 mph compared to 2018. Roark has also mixed those pitches differently than he did a year ago. His sinker’s still his primary offering, but usage of it has plummeted 10 percent, per Statcast, which indicates Roark has turned to his slider about 10 percent more and his fastball at a 5 percent greater rate. According to FanGraphs’ linear weights, Roark’s fastball has been one of the best among starters in 2019.

Now for the bad news: FanGraphs shows the rest of Roark’s offerings all rate in the negatives this year. Although Roark has stifled righty batters, he flat-out hasn’t had an answer for lefties, who have slashed .290/.388/.531 against him. In essence, Roark has turned the typical lefty into Rafael Devers in 2019, in part because he’s yielding more damaging contact than he did in prior years. Roark’s hard-hit rate against is up more than 11 percent relative to his career, while he has surrendered soft contact about 4 percent less, according to FanGraphs.  Statcast doesn’t provide any hope in that regard either, noting Roark ranks in the league’s 26th percentile in hard-hit percentage. He’s also far below average in terms of expected batting average (28th percentile), exit velocity (29th), expected weighted on-base average (34th) and expected slugging percentage (39th).

Teams with interest in Roark are no doubt aware of his blemishes, though those issues shouldn’t deter the Reds from finding a taker for him if they try to before the deadline. Roark’s near the top of the league when it comes to curve spin rate (80th percentile), so he could land with an organization which encourages him to utilize that pitch more. Regardless, for clubs that aren’t in position to win bidding wars for more hyped trade candidates such as Bumgarner, Wheeler, Matthew Boyd and Marcus Stroman, among others, Roark will hold appeal. Whether he finishes the season in Cincinnati or elsewhere, Roark will continue attempting to make a case for a raise over his $10MM salary as he prepares for an upcoming trip to free agency.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

162 Games Of Shohei Ohtani

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The Angels had far more important things on their mind Tuesday, a night in which they mourned the loss of friend and teammate Tyler Skaggs, but their game against the Rangers marked Shohei Ohtani’s 162nd as a part of their offense. Injuries have prevented the two-way phenom from making a greater impact since he emigrated from Japan entering the 2018 season, but in the full season he has played, Ohtani has more than matched the overwhelming hype that accompanied his arrival.

Although there wasn’t much question Ohtani would turn into a front-line starter when he left his homeland for the majors, there was plenty of doubt regarding how well he’d fare as a hitter. It turns out Ohtani has made more of a mark on the offensive end to this point, though the fact that he underwent Tommy John surgery last October is partially the reason for that. The righty-throwing Ohtani accumulated only 51 2/3 and 10 starts in 2018, when he logged a terrific 3.31 ERA/3.57 FIP with 10.97 K/9 against 3.83 BB/9.

Ohtani’s pitching numbers will stay in place until he returns to the mound from his TJ procedure in 2020. That same surgery stopped Ohtani from making his 2019 debut as a hitter until May 7, but the DH has more than made up for lost time in the nearly two months since then.

The lefty-swinging Ohtani burst on the scene last year with a .285/.361/.564 line (152 wRC+) and 22 home runs in 367 plate appearances. Thanks to that and his output on the mound, Ohtani rightly took home American League Rookie of the Year honors. While Ohtani hasn’t been quite as strong this year on a rate basis, he has still been a premier hitter, evidenced by his 142 wRC+.

Across 195 trips to the plate, Ohtani has slashed .303/.359/.554 with 12 homers. Now, 162 games and 562 PA into his career as a major league batter, Ohtani owns a .291/.360/.561 slash – good for an exemplary 148 wRC+ – with 34 homers. His .269 isolated power ranks 10th in the majors since 2018, wedging him between the powerful duo of Khris Davis and Luke Voit. The speedy Ohtani has added 14 steals on 19 tries for good measure, giving him a 3.9 fWAR over a full season as a major league offensive player.

Ohtani was marvelous last year and has been again this season, though there are some differences in the way he has compiled his production. Ohtani’s pulling pitches less, hitting far more grounders and far fewer fly balls, all of which has led to a power decrease. He’s still formidable in that department, though. An uptick in line drives has helped Ohtani rank near the absolute top of the majors in expected slugging percentage (86th percentile), expected weighted on-base average (89th percentile), hard-hit percentage (94th percentile), expected batting average (95th percentile) and average exit velocity (99th percentile), according to Statcast. The difference between his .378 xwOBA and .382 wOBA, both of which rank in the top 40 among hitters with at least 150 PA, is negligible.

It’s unwise to draw conclusions from such a small sample, yet it’s worth noting the lefty-swinging Ohtani has been much better against same-handed pitchers than he was a year ago. As FanGraphs’ heat maps indicate (2018, 2019), Ohtani showed no power versus lefties when they threw pitches belt high or lower on the outer half last season. That hasn’t been the case at all this year, on the other hand. At the same time, he has taken tremendous steps forward against breaking pitches in general – after managing a .292/.300 wOBA/xwOBA versus such offerings in 2018, he’s up to .414/.363 a couple months into the current season. Ohtani has shown further growth as a hitter by chasing less outside the zone, swinging and missing at fewer pitches and making much more contact than he did during his rookie campaign.

There is room for improvement when it comes to plate discipline for Ohtani, whose K/BB ratio has hung around the league average in each of his two seasons. And he could have a difficult time continuing to uphold a .350 batting average, which he recorded last year and has again this season. However, as a fast runner who hits the ball hard and amasses a lot of grounders and liners, his skill set is conducive to a high BABIP.

Several months before Ohtani’s much-ballyhooed free-agent derby began, MLBTR contributor Chuck Wasserstrom surveyed scouts on what type of major league hitter he’d become. They didn’t forecast an elite-caliber offensive player, but that’s what Ohtani has been through his first full season at the plate. The fact that the two-way force hasn’t really begun to realize his potential as a pitcher is all the more thrilling for the Angels and all the more concerning for the rest of the league.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

17 Above Average Hitters Who Could Be Available This Month

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Looking to trade for an impact bat this month?  Options are limited, but here are 17 position players who are projected by Steamer to post a weighted on-base average of at least .321 (the American League non-pitcher average mark) from here on out.

First Basemen/Designated Hitters

  • Jose Abreu, White Sox (.351 projected wOBA) – As a player about to hit free agency on a non-contending team, you’d think Abreu would be a prime candidate to be traded by the White Sox.  However, interest is mutual in keeping the 32-year-old in Chicago, and that seems the most likely outcome.
  • Brandon Belt, Giants (.347) – Though underpowered for his position, Belt gets on base and can still help an offense.  The obstacle to a trade is his contract, which still has more than $37MM remaining through 2021.  He also has a limited no-trade clause that allows him to block deals to ten teams.
  • Justin Smoak, Blue Jays (.347) – Smoak is best utilized in a platoon, since he doesn’t hit well against left-handed pitching.  He’ll have less than $3MM left on his contract at the trade deadline and is a strong candidate to be traded.
  • Miguel Cabrera, Tigers (.345) – Cabrera’s power hasn’t shown up this season, and he’ll require a DH spot.  But the real impediment is the $142MM owed to him through 2023, plus a full no-trade clause.  It seems impossible the Tigers could find a way to unload that contract, even if an accomplished veteran hitter like Cabrera could help a contender.

Outfielders

  • Yasiel Puig, Reds (.348) – As rough as Puig’s year has been, from May 3rd onward he’s hitting .275/.335/.534 in 194 plate appearances.  A case could be made that he’s the best hitter available this month, though with playoff odds of 6.9%, the Reds might hang around just enough to prevent a Puig trade.  He’s a free agent after the season.
  • Michael Conforto, Mets (.347) – The Mets have similar playoff odds to the Reds, and may be reluctant to punt on their season unless that changes.  Even then, trading the 26-year-old Conforto with two years of control remaining seems unlikely.
  • Nicholas Castellanos, Tigers (.344) – A free agent after the season, Castellanos is very likely to be traded this month.  At the deadline he’ll have about $3.3MM left on his contract.  Castellanos continues to struggle defensively, but he’s clearly an above-average hitter.
  • Trey Mancini, Orioles (.334) – Mancini, 27, is having what appears to be a breakout year and probably should have represented the Orioles at the All-Star Game.  He’s controlled through 2022, so the Orioles should be in no rush to trade him if the offers aren’t impressive.  But teams seeking a controllable corner outfielder/first baseman will certainly be calling on Mancini.
  • Jorge Soler, Royals (.333) – Perhaps the most remarkable stat about the oft-injured Soler is that he’s played in every single Royals game this year.  A healthy amount of time at DH plays a part in that.  Soler could wind up with 40 home runs if he stays healthy, though he’s not hitting for average or drawing walks this year.  He still brings undeniable right-handed power, and he’s controlled through 2021.
  • Starling Marte, Pirates (.333) – Since returning from a collision-related injury on April 30th, Marte is hitting .295/.340/.485 in 257 plate appearances.  He’s also the only player here who profiles as a regular in center field.  Marte can be controlled affordably through 2021.  However, the Pirates don’t seem inclined to give up on their season, so Marte and the rest of their outfielders will probably stay put.
  • Mitch Haniger, Mariners (.329) – Haniger, recovering from a ruptured testicle, is not expected back until after the All-Star break.  The Mariners control him through 2022 and seem unlikely to rush him back in late July to make such a crucial trade.
  • Domingo Santana, Mariners (.327) – Santana has two years of control remaining, and the Mariners will likely prefer to keep him in their outfield with Haniger as they try to contend in the near future.  But with Jerry Dipoto at the helm, I had to list Santana here.
  • Corey Dickerson, Pirates (.323)
  • Melky Cabrera, Pirates (.321)

Infielders

  • Derek Dietrich, Reds (.329) – As with Puig, the Reds may be close enough to contention (and the offers unimpressive enough) that they ride with the players they have rather than execute a sell-off.  But with Scooter Gennett back, the Reds could at least consider trading him or Dietrich this month.
  • Tommy La Stella, Angels (.321) – The Angels’ surprising All-Star is under team control only through next year, and the club’s playoff odds sit at 2.2%.  Given that La Stella only just hit his way out of bench duty with a stellar half-season, the Halos would likely have a hard time cashing him in for notable prospects.
  • Wilson Ramos, Mets (.321) – If you’re seeking an offensive-minded catcher, Ramos is your guy.  The Mets could try to unload the $13.5MM still left on his contract, though they’d have to hand over the reins to Tomas Nido full-time at least for the rest of the season.
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