MLBTR Originals

This is the third in a series of pieces previewing offseason club option decisions. This edition will focus on starting pitchers…

• Chris Archer, RHP, Pirates ($9MM option or $1.75MM buyout): The Archer era hasn’t gone as planned for Pittsburgh since it acquired him from Tampa Bay in a July 2018 blockbuster. This year, his first full season as a Pirate, Archer has notched an awful 5.35 ERA/5.55 FIP across 107 2/3 innings. His $9MM salary for next year no longer looks like a bargain, but it’s not pricey enough for the Pirates to cut the cord.
• Andrew Cashner, RHP, Red Sox ($10MM option): Cashner was the reigning world champion Red Sox’s headlining July acquisition, but he hasn’t helped matters during a skid that could knock the team out of contention. After pitching decently for the Orioles prior to the deal, the soon-to-be 33-year-old Cashner has yielded 18 earned runs on 31 hits and 10 walks (with 16 strikeouts) in four starts and 23 1/3 innings as a member of the Red Sox. He won’t be on their roster in 2020.
• Derek Holland, LHP, Cubs ($6.5MM option or $500K buyout): We could technically group Holland in with the relievers, as he has spent most of the season in that capacity for the Giants and Cubs after an abysmal start to the season out of San Francisco’s rotation. Holland has been good for the Cubs since they acquired the then-designated 32-year-old, having logged 5 2/3 innings of three-hit, one-run ball. As of now, though, he’s a strong bet to return to free agency over the winter.
• Corey Kluber, RHP, Indians ($17.5MM option or $1MM buyout): The two-time Cy Young winner got off to a surprisingly rough start before suffering a forearm fracture May 1, and he hasn’t returned since. But the 33-year-old Kluber’s option should still be an easy one for the Indians to exercise.
• Wade LeBlanc, LHP, Mariners ($5MM option or $450K buyout): While LeBlanc was a respectable source of innings for the Mariners in 2018, he’s likely pitching his way back to the free-agent market this season. The 35-year-old owns a 5.38 ERA/5.30 FIP over 92 innings divided between the M’s rotation and bullpen.
• Martin Perez, LHP, Twins ($7MM option or $500K buyout): It was just last offseason that the Rangers declined a $7.5MM option for Perez, who has since emerged as a decent buy-low pickup for the Twins. Perez, 28, is averaging a career-high 94.1 mph on his fastball and has pitched to a 4.58 ERA/4.44 FIP with 7.76 K/9, 3.57 BB/9 and a 49.3 percent groundball rate across 116 innings. That’s acceptable production for a back-end starter, though it’s worth noting Perez’s numbers have tailed off over the past couple months. Minnesota may opt to move on as a result, which would save the team $7MM. Then again, the club could be leery of having to replace yet another starter behind ace Jose Berrios with Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson and Michael Pineda all headed for free agency.
• Jose Quintana, LHP, Cubs ($11.5MM option or $1MM buyout): The Cubs traded two potential long-term building blocks, outfielder Eloy Jimenez and righty Dylan Cease, to the crosstown rival White Sox for Quintana back in 2017. Quintana was amid an excellent multiyear stretch then, though his effectiveness has waned since changing Chicago homes. Still, the soon-to-be 31-year-old absolutely hasn’t struggled enough for the Cubs to reject his option two seasons after giving up Jimenez and Cease. Quintana has recorded a 4.40 ERA/4.09 FIP in 122 2/3 innings this year.
• Julio Teheran, RHP, Braves ($12MM option or $1MM buyout): This is a pretty debatable case. On one hand, Teheran’s 3.46 ERA and team-leading 130 innings are impressive. On the other, his 4.47 FIP, 5.11 SIERA, 5.25 xFIP, 4.29 BB/9 and 39.7 percent grounder rate combine to paint a much drearier picture. That said, the 28-year-old Teheran has become known for regularly outperforming underwhelming peripherals. Whether the Braves trust his ability to do it again in 2020 will determine his fate with the organization.
• Jason Vargas, LHP, Phillies ($8MM option or $2MM buyout): Vargas was among the game’s worst starters in 2018, but he has rebounded this season to post passable back-end numbers with the Mets and Phillies. The soft-tossing 36-year-old has amassed 100 2/3 innings of 3.93 ERA/4.66 FIP pitching with 7.69 K/9, 3.58 BB/9 and a 40.7 percent grounder mark. He’s still far from a slam dunk to have his option picked up – cutting Vargas would save the Phillies $6MM – but they’ll need competent innings from somewhere in 2020. They haven’t consistently gotten enough of those this year from anyone but Aaron Nola. He and the declining Jake Arrieta will be back in Philly’s rotation next season, but questions abound otherwise.

This is the second in a series of pieces previewing offseason club option decisions. This edition will focus on designated hitters and outfielders…

Designated hitters

• Nelson Cruz, Twins ($12MM option or $300K buyout): So let’s get this straight: Cruz has slashed .294/.385/.642 with 30 home runs in 362 plate appearances on a $14MM salary this year, and he’s actually in line for a pay decrease? This is looking like a brilliant signing by the Twins, who will no doubt exercise the 39-year-old Cruz’s option.
• Edwin Encarnacion, Yankees ($20MM option or $5MM buyout): Like Cruz, the 36-year-old Encarnacion has been one of the most prolific sluggers in recent memory. That doesn’t mean the Yankees will keep Encarnacion around, though. While he was enjoying another high-end year (.240/.346/.518 with 30 HRs in 451 PA) before fracturing his right wrist last weekend, the Yankees might decide they could spend Encarnacion’s money better elsewhere. After all, they won’t be hard up for other DH options in 2020.

Outfielders

• Alex Gordon, Royals ($23MM mutual option or $4MM buyout): The Royals certainly won’t bring Gordon back next year for $23MM, but he’s a franchise icon who hasn’t made it a secret he wants to spend his whole career in Kansas City. And Royals general manager Dayton Moore has great respect for Gordon, so expect the soon-to-be 36-year-old left fielder to return to KC next season at a more team-friendly price.
• Billy Hamilton, Royals ($7.5MM option or $1MM buyout): The same probably won’t apply to Hamilton, who has posted the worst offensive season of his light-hitting career. Hamilton has batted a woeful .209/.276/.262 with no homers in 293 PA, and even his always strong defense and base running haven’t been able to make up for his punchless production at the plate. He’ll return to free agency over the winter.
• Juan Lagares, Mets ($9.5MM option or $500K buyout): The 30-year-old Lagares joins Hamilton as another weak-hitting center fielder on his way to the open market. Lagares has long been known for his defense, but he has managed an unappealing minus-5 DRS/minus-4.0 UZR in center this season. Meanwhile, he has put up a horrid .186/.263/.267 line with a pair of HRs over 180 trips to the plate.
• Starling Marte, Pirates ($11.5MM option or $2MM buyout): This should be a no-brainer for the Pirates to exercise, as the soon-to-be 31-year-old Marte has turned in another respectable season in 2019. Despite a career-low 3.9 percent walk rate, Marte has slashed .285/.326/.505 and notched 20 homers and 17 steals across 462 PA. The defense hasn’t exactly been stellar (minus-5 DRS,  minus-2.1 UZR), yet Marte has still been worth 2.5 fWAR.
• Kole Calhoun, Angels ($14MM option or $1MM buyout): This will be a tough choice for the Angels, who have seen Calhoun rebound from a subpar 2018 to bat .233/.318/.481 with 25 HRs (one fewer than his personal-high total) in 448 PA. Calhoun’s also a capable defender, which has helped him record the fifth season of at least 2.0 fWAR in his career. He’s set to turn 32 in October, though, and the Angels have an elite outfield prospect in Jo Adell knocking at the door. Therefore, they may be tempted to jettison Calhoun – quality track record be damned – and save $13MM.
• Adam Eaton, Nationals ($9.5MM option or $1.5MM buyout): The Eaton acquisition hasn’t worked out as hoped for the Nationals, who traded pitchers Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning to the White Sox for him prior to the 2017 season. Eaton hasn’t performed poorly by any means, but injuries limited him to just 118 games in his first two seasons in D.C. He has appeared in 108 this year, however, and batted a decent .276/.357/.396 with six HRs, 10 steals and 1.4 fWAR in 480 PA. As of now, the guess is they’ll keep the soon-to-be 31-year-old in the fold.
• Nick Markakis, Braves ($6MM option or $2MM buyout): Markakis has been one of baseball’s most durable players since his career began in 2006, but he took a pitch off the left wrist in late July and won’t return until sometime in September. His streak of 150-plus appearances will end at six seasons as a result. Still, the 35-year-old was in the midst of another decent season at the time he went down, and with Austin Riley perhaps set to move from the corner outfield to third base in 2020 (starting 3B Josh Donaldson’s a pending free agent), the Braves just might bring the affordable Markakis back for a sixth season.

This is the first in a series of pieces previewing offseason club option decisions. We’ll start with catchers and infielders…

Catchers

• Welington Castillo, White Sox ($8MM option or $500K buyout): This looks like a buyout waiting to happen for the White Sox, who have gotten awful offensive production from the typically competent Castillo. The 32-year-old has hit .184/.262/.340 with six home runs in 164 plate appearances. Castillo has also graded as one of the game’s worst defensive backstops.
• Tyler Flowers, Braves ($6MM option or $2MM buyout): The 33-year-old Flowers’ offensive output has waned this season in comparison to the previous three campaigns, though his line – .229/.307/.432 with nine HRs in 215 PA – is closer to average than terrible relative to his position. And Flowers remains a strong defender, so it’ll be a surprise if the Braves buy him out – especially with Brian McCann’s future in question.
• Yan Gomes, Nationals ($9MM option or $1MM buyout): This has been a miserable year for Gomes, a former Indian whom the Nationals acquired last offseason. Gomes, 32, owns a .207/.313/.327 line with six homers across 240 PA, and has been a mixed bag behind the plate. With fellow catcher Kurt Suzuki under control through next season, the Nationals may not feel compelled to bring Gomes back.
• Yasmani Grandal, Brewers ($16MM mutual option or $2.25MM buyout): At this rate, the Brewers will exercise their half of Grandal’s mutual option, but he’s sure to decline his end of it. Grandal’s amid another strong all-around year and, unlike last offseason, will enter free agency without a qualifying offer weighing him down.
• Chris Iannetta, Rockies ($4.25MM option or $750K buyout): It’s not a prohibitive price for Iannetta, but he hasn’t done himself any favors by hitting .212/.306/.409 with six dingers in 157 trips to the plate as Tony Wolters’ backup. Expect the Rockies to move on without Iannetta.

First basemen

• Matt Adams, Nationals ($4MM option or $1MM buyout): This will amount to a $3MM decision for the Nationals, who are already paying Adams that much this year. The 30-year-old has been a useful piece for the club, with a powerful .245/.296/.532 line and 17 HRs in 233 PA. The guess is the Nats will exercise his option, especially with other first base choices Ryan Zimmerman, Howie Kendrick and Gerardo Parra possibly on the way out after this season.
• Anthony Rizzo, Cubs ($16.5MM option or $2MM buyout): The Cubs will obviously pick up Rizzo’s option.
• Eric Thames, Brewers ($7.5MM option or $1MM buyout): Thames has somewhat bounced back from an underwhelming 2018, his price for next year is reasonable, and the Brewers just sent fellow first baseman Jesus Aguilar packing. They’ll likely keep Thames around for 2020.
• Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals ($18MM option or $2MM buyout): Zimmerman’s days as a star third baseman are long gone, and the now-first baseman’s time as a National is likely to end after the season.

Second basemen

• Starlin Castro, Marlins ($16MM option or $1MM buyout): It’ll be easy for the low-budget Marlins to move on from Castro, who’s mired in the worst season of his career at the age of 29.
• Wilmer Flores, Diamondbacks ($6MM option or $500K buyout): The 28-year-old Flores was a quality bench piece for the Mets prior to this season, but his first (and possibly only) D-backs campaign has been an injury-limited one. The production hasn’t been great, either, as Flores has hit just .277/.327/.387 with a pair of HRs in 168 attempts. As of now, he looks like a strong possibility for a buyout.
• Jedd Gyorko, Dodgers ($13MM option or $1MM buyout): Speaking of injuries, Gyorko has taken just 62 PA this season, and he has slashed a meager .196/.274/.304 in that sample size. The Dodgers acquired the soon-to-be 31-year-old from the Cardinals at last week’s trade deadline, but despite LA’s deep pockets, he figures to hit free agency after the season.
• Jason Kipnis, Indians ($16.5MM option or $2.5MM buyout): In terms of aggregate production, this is the third straight unspectacular season for the 32-year-old Kipnis, who has batted .255/.317/.405 with 11 homers through 383 PA. Kipnis has been a lot better since an ice-cold start to the season, but so good that the budget-conscious Indians will pick up his pricey option? Highly doubtful. While Kipnis has been an Indian since they chose him in the second round of the 2009 draft, his long run with the organization may be on the verge of ending.
• Mike Moustakas, Brewers ($11MM mutual option or $3MM buyout): Like Grandal, the Brewers figure to exercise Moustakas’ option. But Moustakas is likely to join Grandal in taking another stab at free agency. Set to turn 31 next month, Moustakas has performed well this year at second (where he hadn’t played prior to 2019) and third, and is on track for his second 30-HR campaign.

Shortstops

• Freddy Galvis, Blue Jays ($5.5MM option or $1MM buyout): It’s not a crazy price for the durable, switch-hitting Galvis, who has slashed a competent .272/.306/.455 and smacked 18 homers over 449 PA in his age-29 campaign. But it may not be palatable for the Blue Jays, who have seen touted middle infield prospects Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio emerge as major leaguers this year.

Third basemen

• We already covered Flores, Gyorko and Moustakas, the only third base-capable players with options.

We ran through the biggest headlining moves of Wednesday’s trade deadline (American League; National League). But what about the trades that didn’t take place?

1. Gun-Shy Big Spenders. They had explanations for their decisions not to add significant talent on deadline day, but it was still stunning to see the Dodgers and Yankees — and, to a lesser extent, the Red Sox — bypass big moves. Both clubs are excellent just the way they are. Each rightly respects the value of young talent and perennial contention. But still … it has been quite some time since either took down a World Series title. And there could well be opportunities to second guess if the roster is lacking that one key piece at a big moment.

2. Mets Withhold Wheeler. On the other side of the coin, this was by far the boldest non-sale. The Mets put a lofty price tag on their rental starter and stuck to it. It’s a bold gambit that could easily backfire. True, there’s value in pressing to contend. And Wheeler could still be issued a qualifying offer. (He might be a nice value on even an expensive one-year deal; if he declines, the Mets would likely recoup draft compensation.) But if the Mets can’t continue their recent run, and/or health issues preclude a QO to Wheeler, this could be regrettable.

3. High-Powered Relievers Stay In Lower-Leverage Situations. Felipe Vazquez. Edwin Diaz. Kirby Yates. Mychal Givens. Raisel Iglesias. Alex Colome. Amir Garrett. Joe Jimenez. Jose Leclerc. There was some firepower and late-inning experience out there! And contenders that could’ve used it, with affordable team control helping to justify any addition. We never expected all of those arms to change hands, but I sure thought at least one or two would.

4. Boyd Not Bought. The Tigers just don’t seem that close to contending, if we’re being honest. Sure, the tide can start to turn more quickly than one might anticipate. But there are a load of questions facing the organization over the next few seasons. Dealing Matt Boyd, whose eye-popping peripherals and three seasons of control are highly appealing, seemed to offer a ready-made path to boosting the Tigers farm in a way that other recent deadline pieces haven’t. It would’ve been foolish to settle for a meager return, and it may be that the offers just weren’t there, but it’s surprising that nothing came together on the breakout lefty.

5. Cardinals Keep Bird In Hand. With an increasingly glaring postseason drought, the game’s model smaller-market team seemed to be positioned to chase glory at the deadline. It was frustrating for the team, and no doubt also for quite a few fans, to come away empty when there were some clear areas to improve on the roster. A division crown is still plenty possible, but the odds would be better with another quality starter and another bullpen or bench piece in the fold.

6. All Smoak, No Fire. As rental pieces go, defensively limited hitters aren’t that exciting. But man, Justin Smoak is a pretty good one. He’s a switch-hitter on an affordable deal. His power is down a bit, but it’s still there and he has been walking like a man possessed. Plus, he’s a Statcast darling, with a lofty .389 xwOBA.

7. That Dog Don’t Hunt[er]. Ditto Hunter Pence, who came back from the dead and turned in an All-Star first half. He’s swinging a hot stick. He’s cheap. And he’s pure fire in the clubhouse. It feels like we’re all missing out not having Pence giving color to high-leverage moments by stalking the dugout steps and entering the batter’s box in a big moment or two.

8. Frazier Not Freed: Quite apart from the Yanks’ generally quiet outcome was the fact that the club didn’t manage to find a deal involving Clint Frazier. He could still have an impact in New York, at least once rosters expand, but the club has passed over multiple chances to bring him onto the roster and wouldn’t seem to be increasing his trade value by keeping him stashed at Triple-A. It seemed to make an awful lot of sense for Frazier to be cashed in somehow on or before July 31. But he’s still in New York (err, Scranton).

9. Middle Relievers Marooned. So … why exactly didn’t these guys end up on the move? Prices were said to be frustratingly lofty by several contending GMs. Many ended up bypassing the top of the pure rental market, going to second or third-tier rental pieces (e.g., the Nationals) or nabbing controllable, somewhat under-the-radar arms (Nick Anderson, Joe Biagini, Jake Faria, Adam Kolarek). But if those players moved, why not guys like Francisco Liriano, Craig Stammen, Greg Holland, David Hernandez, Jared Hughes, and Cory Gearrin?

10. Buy/Sell Blurred. While the aggregate amount of talent moved ended up being rather typical, the deadline lacked much in the way of decisive action as between contending and rebuilding, buying versus selling. The Mets and Reds made stunning trades that improved their still-middling chances this year, but mostly did so with an eye to the future. Both clubs went on to perform a bit of corresponding payroll/roster management that partially offset their lone acquisitions. The Astros went big, while the Cubs and Braves made substantial adds (particularly when you include their mid-season free-agent expenditures). But on the whole, tepidity abounded on the buy side. It was even more remarkable to see so few teams go for broke in a selling direction. The Giants did some reshuffling but clearly chose to walk a line. Many teams that found themselves in potential selling position after hoping to contend decided against deep cuts, such as the Angels, Rangers, Pirates, Rockies, and Padres. (San Diego’s one major swap did bring in a prospect, but didn’t meaningfully impact the team’s expected contention timeline.) The Marlins and Blue Jays sent out a few pieces, but the Tigers, Royals, and even the Orioles held their most interesting MLB assets (Boyd, Whit Merrifield, Givens, Trey Mancini, etc.). The White Sox did nothing of note. Even the Diamondbacks, who surprised with their Zack Greinke deal, also acted to bring in multiple MLB pieces to stay afloat this year and prepare for a reasonably competitive 2020. What does it all mean? Who can say? Perhaps it’s just how things shook out this time around. Or it may be that the rise of prospect clutching and cheap extensions will usher in a new era of mainly “homegrown” teams, for better or worse.

We previewed the upcoming offseason’s qualifying market for potential free-agent hitters earlier Friday. We’ll do the same here with pitchers who may become free agents in a few months (bear in mind that possible Dodgers free agents Hyun-Jin Ryu and Kenley Jansen are ineligible because they’ve both received QOs in the past)…

Starters

• Gerrit Cole, Astros: This is an easy one for the Astros, who acquired Cole from the Pirates entering 2018 and have since gotten elite production from the former No. 1 overall pick. Cole, who will turn 29 in a month, is the only player in the upcoming free-agent class with a realistic chance at a $200MM contract. The strikeout-heavy right-hander has notched a 2.87 ERA/3.07 FIP with 12.9 K/9 and 2.33 BB/9 in 150 2/3 innings this season.
• Stephen Strasburg, Nationals: Another former top pick, Strasburg still has four years and $100MM left on his current contract. Howeve, he’ll have to seriously consider opting out at this rate. If he does, the Nationals will qualify him. Strasburg, a 31-year-old righty, owns a 3.26 ERA/2.93 FIP with 10.75 K/9, 2.18 BB/9 and a 50.9 percent groundball rate through 140 2/3 frames.
• Madison Bumgarner, Giants: For most of the season, it looked as if the Giants were going to trade Bumgarner, which would have exempted him from a qualifying offer. The club’s recent charge up the standings led it to retain the franchise icon at the deadline, though, and it’s sure to qualify Bumgarner if it doesn’t sign him to an extension before free agency. The left-handed Bumgarner, who turned 30 onThursday, has worked to a 3.74 ERA/3.66 FIP with exemplary strikeout and walk rates (9.02 K/9, 1.87 BB/9) over 139 2/3 innings.
• Zack Wheeler, Mets: Like Bumgarner, Wheeler looked like a strong trade candidate for most of the season, but he didn’t move before the deadline. Barring an extension, the flamethrowing righty, 29, is another QO waiting to happen. While Wheeler has only logged a 4.45 ERA in 131 1/3 innings this year, he has registered a 3.51 FIP with 9.87 K/9 and 2.33 BB/9.
• Cole Hamels, Cubs: Hamels has been out for more than a month because of an oblique strain, but he’ll be back Saturday. Assuming he picks up where he left off prior to the injury, a qualifying offer looks clear-cut for the Cubs, who are currently paying Hamels $20MM. When healthy, the soon-to-be 36-year-old Hamels has justified that lofty price tag. The accomplished southpaw has recorded a 2.98 ERA/3.59 FIP, posted 8.76 K/9 against 3.16 BB/9, and put up a 51.1 percent grounder rate in 99 2/3 frames.
• Jake Odorizzi & Kyle Gibson, Twins: These are highly debatable cases, but it’s inarguable the two righties have acquitted themselves well for a terrific Twins team this season. Odorizzi, playing his age-29 season, has seen his average fastball velocity rise to a career-high 92.9 mph, helping him to a strong 3.73 ERA/3.92 FIP with a personal-best 9.36 K/9 (against 3.06 BB/9) in 108 2/3 innings. Although Odorizzi has always had difficulty generating ground balls (including this year, having done so at a 32.5 percent clip), home runs have never really haunted the former Royal and Ray since his career began in 2012. Gibson, who will turn 32 in October, has also clocked an all-time best mean fastball velo – 93.4 – en route to his top strikeout rate (9.13 per nine, to go with 2.55 walks). Unlike Odorizzi, Gibson has always been solid at inducing grounders. While he has done so 48.2 percent of the time this year, his home run-to-fly ball rate is sitting at an unappealing 18.4 percent. Still, Gibson has managed a respectable 4.10 ERA/3.98 FIP over 116 1/3 innings.

Relievers

• Aroldis Chapman, Yankees: In order for Chapman to receive a qualifying offer, he’ll have to opt out of the remaining two years and $30MM left on his contract. It’s a realistic possibility for the high-velo left-hander, though he’ll turn 32 in February and will have to keep in mind that fellow star closer Craig Kimbrel struggled mightily to find a contract in free agency last winter after getting a QO. However, Kimbrel eventually pulled in a three-year, $43MM guarantee from the Cubs. Chapman has slumped of late, and he has blown five saves – his most since 2013 – in 32 chances. But Chapman has still notched a 2.81 ERA/2.52 FIP with 12.74 K/9 and 4.32 BB/9 in 41 2/3 frames.
• Will Smith, Giants: Smith joined his teammate Bumgarner in looking as if he’d change uniforms prior to the deadline for the past few months. The 30-year-old lefty is still in San Francisco with the deadline having come and gone, though, and is likely to land a QO as a result. Long a quality reliever, Smith has enjoyed one of his most effective seasons this year. He has pitched to a 2.66 ERA/2.73 FIP with 12.74 K/9, 2.09 BB/9 and 26 saves in 28 tries.
• Dellin Betances, Yankees: Qualifying the four-time All-Star setup man may have looked likely a few months back, but Betances has since missed the entire season because of shoulder and lat injuries. The Yankees expect Betances back before the campaign concludes, though there may not be enough time for the hard-throwing 31-year-old to make a QO case.

With this year’s trade deadline having passed, we have a better idea of which pending free agents could receive qualifying offers in the offseason. Yasiel Puig and Nicholas Castellanos were both dealt, so we know they’ll reach free agency unfettered once the season ends. But there are several other position players who are on track to have the QO weighing them down once they reach the open market in a few months. The offer was valued at $17.9MM last offseason, so teams will be judicious when doling it out. Here’s where things stand…

Catchers

• None. The Brewers’ Yasmani Grandal is the most appealing catcher who’s heading for free agency, but because the Dodgers slapped him with a QO last winter, he’s not eligible to get one again.

First Basemen

• None. It’s not a great class for first basemen. As explained on Thursday, the White Sox’s Jose Abreu hasn’t performed well enough this year to put himself in QO consideration.

Second Basemen

• None. Longtime third baseman and newly minted second basemen Mike Moustakas, yet another Brewer, would be a possible candidate had the Royals not given him a QO a couple offseasons ago.

Shortstops

• Elvis Andrus, Rangers: This is a borderline-at-best case, and it depends in part on whether Andrus decides to opt out of the remaining three years and $43MM left on his contract once the season ends. The soon-to-be 31-year-old Andrus hasn’t been much of an offensive threat dating back to last season, having hit .269/.313/.388 (80 wRC+) with 14 home runs and 27 stolen bases in 852 plate appearances. He could stick with his current deal as a result.
• Didi Gregorius, Yankees: Although Gregorius has missed a large chunk of this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last fall, he’s a strong bet to collect a QO from the Yankees. The 29-year-old has been among the majors’ most productive shortstops in recent campaigns, though this season’s .271/.305/.465 line (98 wRC+) with seven HRs in 164 PA represents a notable step down compared to the career-best numbers Gregorius managed in 2018.

Third Basemen

• Anthony Rendon, Nationals: This will be a no-brainer for the Nationals, as Rendon’s the premier position player without a contract for 2020. A consistently excellent producer since he broke out in 2014, the 29-year-old Rendon’s amid his top season at the perfect time. He has slashed .317/.404/.609 (155 wRC+) with 23 home runs and 4.4 fWAR in 411 trips to the plate.
• Josh Donaldson, Braves: Because the Blue Jays traded him last summer, Donaldson was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer when he entered free agency at the conclusion of the season. He then signed a one-year, $23MM deal with the Braves, and has since raked to the tune of .256/.367/.520 (128 wRC+) with 25 HRs and 3.0 fWAR over 447 PA. Age isn’t on the side of Donaldson, who will turn 34 in December, but the Braves are sure to stick the former AL MVP with a QO.

Outfielders

• J.D. Martinez, Red Sox: As with Andrus, whether Martinez gets a QO will depend on if he opts out of what’s left of his contract. Martinez has three years and $62.5MM remaining, and walking away from that would be quite risky for a defensively challenged soon-to-be 32-year-old. But Martinez is enjoying his sixth straight high-end season at the plate, where he has teed off on pitchers for a .297/.369/.544 line (132 wRC+) and smashed 24 dingers through 451 PA. Martinez is still far from certain to opt out, but if he does, Boston will qualify him.
• Marcell Ozuna, Cardinals: Ozuna, who will turn 29 in November, hasn’t played in over a month because of finger injuries. Before that, the ex-Marlin was on track for his fourth straight above-average season. Ozuna has hit .259/.331/.515 (118 wRC+) with 20 homers and a personal-high .256 ISO in 326 tries. He may not be a slam dunk to earn a QO, but it’s more likely than not.

This was once the point where we’d remind everyone of the August trade rules — that set of convoluted procedures by which players could still be swapped even after the “trade deadline.” Confusing as that was, it was a key backstop for contenders that saw needs arise. Increasingly, that second bite at the apple had provided a significant source of talent movement, giving teams opportunities to re-think their earlier decisions.

No more! We’ve already examined the new trade deadline rules in a detailed rulebook reading. But that’s not for everyone. What you want to know is: how can my team get new players from here through the end of the season?

Here are the remaining ways in which players can still move from team to team the rest of the way:

• Waiver claims: Teams can no longer trade players who have been designated for assignment, but they can still be placed on outright waivers. This is the only way to nab a player on a Major League contract until after the end of the World Series. August 31st is still the deadline for postseason eligibility — that limitation applies also to all classes of players discussed below — but otherwise teams can claim a contract just like usual. It’s a simple and direct way to add a player, but entirely uncertain and often undesirable when the deal includes substantial guaranteed money. Note that the priority order is determined by lowest winning percentage on a leaguewide basis. League status (NL/AL) no longer matters, except in the event that two teams placing a claim have the same record.
• Signings of outrighted/released players: Nothing says ’ya can’t ink a guy who’s a free agent. That’s not generally notable, but it could well work in a different manner than it has in years past. It used to be that we’d talk about revocable trade waivers — again, click here if you want to walk down memory lane — but they’re now a non-entity. Now, we’re talking about outright or release waivers. If a team obtains waivers on a well-compensated veteran — say, Asdrubal Cabrera, who was designated after failing to draw deadline interest and may well clear — it’s quite likely that said player will end up on the open market. Even if they’re outrighted, players with five or more years of service can elect free agency without sacrificing any guaranteed money. At that point, they’d be free to sign with any team. Their prior organization would at least stand to recoup a bit of cash for any time said player ends up spending on a MLB roster, earning a pro-rated portion of the league minimum. Point being: there is a way that some high-cost veterans could end up moving to contenders, even if their contracts are too spendy to be claimed.
• Dealing for veterans on minor-league deals: Before you ask, no, this doesn’t include players whose MLB contracts have already been outrighted. Why do you think Dan Straily and John Ryan Murphy were dealt on deadline day? (Yes, I’m bragging that I called it.) But there are plenty of veteran types playing on minors deals who’d at least represent worthwhile fill-in assets. There are frankly too many to list. You can scroll the Triple-A leaderboards to find some plausible guys who’ve been performing well this year after settling for minors arrangements. In many cases, such players won’t come with significant future value for the clubs that control them. Getting a little something in return, and logging some marketplace goodwill by facilitating an opportunity for such a player, might well make a trade worthwhile.
• Dealing for prospects: Who knows? We may even see some higher-end talent moved if a contender gets desperate and sees an opportunity. That used to happen all the time … albeit generally not with the pre-MLB piece moving to a contender. The reason major August trades were possible in the past was that non-40-man talent could be swapped without having to pass through waivers. Remember when the Astros sent three quality prospects to the Tigers for Justin Verlander (whose big contract had cleared revocable trade waivers)? That particular deal couldn’t happen any more, since Verlander couldn’t be traded, but all such prospects can be dealt as freely as ever. It’s conceivable we’ll see prospect-for-prospect arrangements happen this August. It’s hard to imagine elite players being shipped around, but not impossible. More likely, perhaps, would be a move involving a fast-moving, recently drafted collegiate reliever or lower-ceiling starter who hadn’t yet been placed on a 40-man roster.
• Acquiring players from abroad: Remember this move, Orioles fans? That particular mid-season MLB deal for a player that had been playing in Japan didn’t work out, but it showed a potential (albeit limited) path that could be followed now. Due to roster restrictions, only so many players are suiting up in the Asian professional leagues, so there aren’t all that many players. And most are not only earning well, but are playing key roles on their teams (with championship schedules that generally align with that of MLB). That might limit the field to players that aren’t playing all that well or those that can be made available through some inducement to their current team. Still, it’s definitely a possible avenue for digging up potentially necessary pieces. MyKBO provides a helpful table of foreign players in Korea. You can browse the NPB rosters and statistics for possible finds. And there are also quite a few names of note over in Taiwan, as CPBL Stats tracks.
• Scouring the independent circuit: It’s not the sexiest way to find talent, but cultivating depth is cultivating depth. The Twins already nabbed some outfield depth with such an addition earlier today, and it won’t be terribly surprising to see the Long Island Ducks, the Sugar Land Skeeters, the St. Paul Saints or the Milwaukee Milkmen (yes, that’s a franchise) have a few players poached over the course of the month. Those types of signings are often met with an eye roll, but we’re also nearing the four-year anniversary of Rich Hill’s signing with the Red Sox (out of the Atlantic League).