MLBTR Originals

Many different types of free agents end up receiving relatively expensive, one-year deals. Some are looking for the right opportunity to earn a nice single-season paycheck while (hopefully) building up to a multi-year deal in the ensuing winter. Others settle for a solo campaign after trying and failing to find more. Some are younger players who have enough upside to draw a significant offer despite a rough platform campaign. Others are steady veterans that are being paid more for their floor than their ceiling. All such players necessarily receive only a limited commitment from their new teams; those that end up with non-contenders must be prepared for a mid-season scramble for new lodging in the event of a swap.

With about a quarter of the season in the books, we’re looking at how things are shaping up for the highest-paid rental free agents. We already performed this exercise for position players. Now, we’ll take a look at the ten most expensive one-year starters (and, later, relievers):

Matt Harvey, Angels, $11MM: The priciest arm on this list, Harvey hasn’t come through as the Halos hoped. He’s averaging just five frames per outing in nine starts and has limped to a 6.35 ERA. Though his velocity is fine, Harvey isn’t getting many swings and misses (9.7% swinging-strike rate) and has given up a lot of loud contact (40.6% hard contact vs. only a 9.8% soft contact rate). He’s likely performing better than his results, but Harvey is showing no signs of returning to anything approaching his former performance levels at thirty years of age.

Trevor Cahill, Angels, $9MM: I’ll be honest, I thought this deal would turn out well for the team. Cahill has been good when healthy and seemed to be an interesting risk. Unfortunately, he has managed only 44 innings of 6.95 ERA pitching over nine starts. Like several other struggling hurlers on this, he has been ravaged by the long ball, allowing nearly one every three innings.

CC Sabathia, Yankees, $8MM: An offseason heart procedure seemed ominous, but the outcomes have been sparkling since since Sabatahia returned to the hill. He’s now through 36 1/3 innings of sub-3.00 ERA pitching to open the year. Unfortunately, it may only be a matter of time before opposing hitters expose his act. Sabathia carries only 6.7 K/9 go with 3.7 BB/9 and has been torched for 2.23 home runs per regulation game. His FIP number is over twice his ERA.

Derek Holland, Giants, $7MM: Another hurler that settled for a single season despite having a case for multiple years, Holland ended up being knocked to the bullpen after seven starts. That move sparked a clubhouse flare-up reflective of the club’s rough opening stretch to the season. Holland has improved his strikeout rate but otherwise added walks and dingers, leading to an unsightly 7.17 ERA in 37 2/3 innings. While the Giants never expected world-beating results from Holland, the overall run of events is about the opposite of what they hoped for.

Tyson Ross, Tigers, $5.75MM: Elbow nerve issues have put Ross on the shelf. Perhaps they also help explain the rough start he had authored. Through 35 1/3 innings in seven starts, the veteran hurler carries a 6.11 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9. While he has moved back toward his former strengths with a sturdy 51.3% groundball rate, he’s also permitting home runs at a 22.6% HR/FB clip.

Wade Miley, Astros, $4.5MM: Many were surprised to see the Houston organization settle for Miley, but it made sense to go with a short-term hurler of this sort with so much upper-level talent in the system. Plus, Miley had an odd but legitimately interesting 2018 showing. He hasn’t maintained quite the home run-suppression rates he did last year, but is still getting a good number of grounders and turning in quality results despite underwhelming K/BB numbers (15.9% K rate vs. 5.6% BB rate).

Marco Estrada, Athletics, $4MM: The Oakland org was well aware of Estrada’s back issues when it signed him. Unfortunately, the risk hasn’t paid off, as he has made only five starts and struggled through 23 2/3 innings. Worryingly, ERA estimators (including FIP, xFIP, and SIERA) take even dimmer views of Estrada’s showing to date than his 6.85 ERA suggests. He managed only an 11:8 K/BB ratio and 7.6% swinging-strike rate (his lowest since his brief 2008 debut) before hitting the IL.

Martin Perez, Twins, $3.5MM: This signing looks like the best one on the list to this point. It seems the Minnesota org had good reason to believe it could unlock something from Perez, who is throwing harder (at or above 95 mph with both fastballs) and exhibiting much more swing and miss (11.4% swinging-strike rate) than ever before. He has used a newfound cutter to devastating effect. Best of all for the Twins, the deal includes a club option for 2020.

Matt Shoemaker, Blue Jays, $3.5MM: It seemed that Shoemaker was authoring a nice bounceback tale in Toronto. Through five starts, he worked to a 1.57 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and a 51.4% groundball rate. There was some regression in store, to be sure, but generally it seemed as if he had finally turned the corner after some injury-riddled campaigns in Los Angeles. While arm health wasn’t an issue, a freak knee injury left the 32-year-old with a torn ACL and back on the IL for the remainder of the year.

Clay Buchholz, Blue Jays, $3MM: This one isn’t working out for the Jays either. After opening the year on the injured list, Buchholz made it through only five starts before he was diagnosed with a grade 2 shoulder strain. And he hasn’t been good when on the hill, either, with a 6.57 ERA in 24 2/3 frames.

Many different types of free agents end up receiving relatively expensive, one-year deals. Some are looking for the right opportunity to earn a nice single-season paycheck while (hopefully) building up to a multi-year deal in the ensuing winter. Others settle for a solo campaign after trying and failing to find more. Some are younger players who have enough upside to draw a significant offer despite a rough platform campaign. Others are steady veterans that are being paid more for their floor than their ceiling. All such players necessarily receive only a limited commitment from their new teams; those that end up with non-contenders must be prepared for a mid-season scramble for new lodging in the event of a swap.

With about a quarter of the season in the books, let’s look at how things are shaping up for the dozen highest-paid rental free agent position players, each of whom earned over $5MM for his services in 2019.

Josh Donaldson, Braves, $23MM: It took a big salary to land the former MVP, but this situation is playing out as the Braves envisioned. Thus far, a healthy Donaldson (40 games played) has provided good value (127 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR) and typically fiery leadership. Austin Riley’s ascent only sweetens the pot. He’ll be an option at third if Donaldson gets hurt and the Braves will get a good feel for whether he’s ready to take over full-time next year — with Donaldson potentially declining a qualifying offer and delivering some draft compensation on his way out the door.

Yasmani Grandal, Brewers, $18.25MM: The most surprising player to settle for a one-year pact was this veteran backstop, who has been a consistently stellar overall performer for some time. He reportedly turned down much longer, more lucrative overall deals that he felt would not have compensated him sufficiently for his single-season value. The Brewers managed to sneak in and get a very appealing contract that is paying off so far. Grandal continues to grade as a strong pitch framer while providing top-line offensive output for a catcher, with a .263/.358/.467 batting line through 162 plate appearances to begin the season.

Nelson Cruz, Twins, $14.3MM: Cruz isn’t exactly driving the bus in Minny, where a host of other players are performing at unexpectedly lofty levels, but the respected veteran is earning his keep. Though 144 plate appearances, Cruz carries a .270/.354/.508 slash with seven home runs. He just hit the injured list with a wrist injury, but the hope is it’ll be a brief respite.

Mike Moustakas, Brewers, $10MM: It’s hard to be a total bargain at this price, but the Milwaukee organization is getting everything it hoped for out of Moose. He’s hitting at a 126 wRC+ clip and held down the fort well enough at second base before shifting back to his native hot corner.

Brian Dozier, Nationals, $9MM: Though he’s walking in nearly a dozen of every hundred plate appearances, Dozier carries an anemic .187 batting average and hasn’t yet rediscovered his pop. There’s still time for a turnaround, but it’s not a promising start for the second bagger, who was not that long ago a star-level performer.

Jonathan Schoop, Twins, $7.5MM: The veteran second baseman has been a nice buy thus far for the Twins, putting up a strong 109 wRC+ after a rough 2018 season. There’ll likely always be some ups and downs for a player that draws so few walks, but Schoop has been a productive player when he has been at or above the .300 BABIP and .200 ISO lines. He’s doing that so far.

Steve Pearce, Red Sox, $6.25MM: Though his career has been filled with peaks and valleys, we’ve never seen anything like this from Pearce. Typically, he’s an excellent hitter when he’s able to stay on the field. Pearce opened the year on the IL with a calf injury but hasn’t been himself since returning. Through 69 plate appearances, he owns a not-so-nice .111/.176/.143 batting line without a single long ball.

Nick Markakis, Braves, $6MM: What is there to say at this point? It looked like a nice price when the Braves coaxed the veteran back, though it was questionable whether it really made sense to hand him everyday time in right field to open the season. Markakis has done more than keep the seat warm for younger options or mid-season acquisitions; he’s slashing .299/.393/.461. As was the case last year, there are some sustainability questions — different ones this time around. Markakis carries a robust 14.2% walk rate against only a 10.9% strikeout rate and is making tons of hard contact, but he’s also sporting a 2.54 GB/FB rate that is by gar the highest in his career.

Robinson Chirinos, Astros, $5.75MM: This one came as something of a surprise, as it had seemed the Houston organization would try for a big improvement behind the dish. Interestingly, the Rangers paid Chirinos $1MM rather than exercising a $4.5MM club option. The cross-Texas change has worked out well for Chirinos and the ’Stros, as he’s off to a .268/.398/.546 start to the year with six home runs and an appealing combination of 19 walks and thirty strikeouts. Chirinos has shown power and plate discipline before, but never to quite this extent at the same time. He’s also trending up in the framing department after a being graded harshly in that area last year.

Billy Hamilton, Royals, $5.25MM: If the Royals were expecting something different in kind from what they’ve received from Hamilton, they probably shouldn’t have. He’s still miscast as a near-everyday option in the outfield, as his ongoing struggles with the bat (.224/.305/.284) confirm yet again. Hamilton is now carrying a sub-70 wRC+ for the third consecutive season. He’s also still providing value on the bases and contributing quality glovework, though metrics now view him more as very good than exceptional in those areas.

Jordy Mercer, Tigers, $5.25MM: Injuries have hampered the veteran shortstop early on and he’s not hitting when healthy. There was never much hope that he’d suddenly find a new gear with the bat at 32 years of age, but the Detroit club surely hoped for more than a .206/.275/.317 output. It’s quite a small sample, but both DRS and UZR see cause for concern also with Mercer’s glovework.

Freddy Galvis, Blue Jays, $5MM: To this point, the Blue Jays have gotten better value on their slightly lesser investment in the younger Galvis than the Tigers have in Mercer. That said, Galvis has fallen back to earth after a hot start and is currently sitting at approximately league-average overall offensive production. Toronto can’t be displeased, since the move was designed to fill in the gap for a single season.

Super Two status opens the door to an extra season of arbitration eligibility for certain younger players. Among players in the 2+ service class that spent at least 86 days in the prior season on an active MLB roster (or the injured list), the top 22% in terms of total service receive the Super Two designation. We won’t know the specific service level required until the class has been fully defined.

The ability to achieve that status is dictated primarily by early-career promotion decisions. It’s a factor for teams to consider as they manage their rosters. But it isn’t as strong of a motivator as the math that strongly disincentivizes teams from placing top young prospects on Opening Day rosters. (Kris Bryant recently labeled that a “loophole” that needs to be closed.) Super Two players are still controllable for the same duration as any others, thus preserving teams’ abilities to control the prime years of their best young talent and maintain timing-based bargaining leverage in long-term contract talks.

It’s tempting to think that Super Two status doesn’t matter all that much. True, some teams can largely afford to throw such considerations out the window, figuring that any future payroll impacts can be dealt with if and when they arise. It’s unlikely that the Red Sox worried too much about Super Two status when they decided to bring up Michael Chavis recently. If it turned out he wasn’t quite ready or needed for the duration of the season, he’d go back down anyway. And if he produced — as he has thus far — the long-term sacrifices would be well worth it even for just another month or two of immediate production.

For many teams, it’s tough to be cavalier when the stakes can be so significant. Since the arb system rewards players via raises once they are in the system, the ability to start with a big number and add to it three times vastly increases a player’s potential cumulative pre-free agency earning power. It’s not always obvious at the time the decision is being made, but don’t doubt for a second the degree of potential impact.

Consider Edwin Diaz, the stud closer who was traded over the offseason from the Mariners to the Mets. You may recall that money was a significant aspect of that deal (even moreso than your average MLB swap). Seattle was able to shed a big chunk of Robinson Cano’s remaining salary and add some intriguing young talent by agreeing to part with Diaz. Beyond his abilities on the mound, why was it that Diaz was such a desirable asset? Since Diaz fell shy of arbitration, the Mets were able to renew his contract at just $607K. MLBTR’s arbitration projections would have valued things quite differently had Diaz made it through the door, predicting a whopping $7.5MM salary due to his rare combination of dominant innings and saves. Diaz should still be able to command a big first-year arb salary this fall, but he’ll have to stay healthy to do so and will be starting from scratch rather than building off that massive starting point. The M’s, meanwhile, are enjoying a significantly different payroll situation; had Diaz been a Super Two qualifier, the Mets would’ve had a completely different view of how much Cano salary they’d be amenable to absorbing.

It works the other way, of course. Nationals shortstop Trea Turner snuck in with 2.135 years of service and earned $3.725MM. Tigers southpaw Matt Boyd checked in with a 2.136 service clock and got $2.6MM. And Cubs reliever Carl Edwards Jr., who landed on the dot at 2.134, took home $1.5MM. Things can change quickly in baseball. Turner has been hurt early this year, so his extra arb year will help prop up his ability to earn this fall and beyond. Boyd has taken an ace turn early; if he’s able to sustain even this one monster big-league season, he could be able to secure life-long financial security as soon as this fall. As for Edwards, he was optioned down earlier this year, which demonstrates another of the perils that’s protected against by early arb qualification.

So, we’d love to know which young players will ultimately obtain that status. When is this year’s cutoff? Well, that’s a bit of a misnomer. There’s no way to know in advance how much service it will take. Even if you look at the other players being promoted, you can’t assume they’ll all remain in the majors. And others could still drop back into the 2+ service class if they’re demoted in the future.

Over the past decade, the Super Two cutoff level has ranged from a low of 2.122 to a high of 2.146. Last year’s 2.134 cutoff lands smack dab in the middle. Players that were promoted on or before May 7th of this year were in line to accrue 146 days of service this season, thus putting them on track to clear all the bars we’ve seen in recent campaigns. Players promoted today could accrue as many as 139 days of service this season. And a player can top out at 122 days if they make it onto the active roster on the last day of May. Generally, a June promotion point should be “safe” for teams that want to avoid eventual Super Two status (that is, for prospects that haven’t previously accumulated any time).

Of course, coming up doesn’t always mean staying up. Nationals infielder Carter Kieboom was optioned back after 11 days; Rays first bagger Nate Lowe logged ten. They could still return and boost those tallies. Or, the days could come into play for 2020 promotion considerations; that’s how Turner ended up with his tally. A fair number of other younger players are firmly on track for eventual Super Two status so long as they can stay up. Chavis, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Griffin Canning, and Nick Senzel are all tracking to reach 150 or more days of service this year. With his promotion on Sunday, Astros righty Corbin Martin could max out at 141 days in 2019. Most recently, youngsters Nicky Lopez (link) and Oscar Mercado (link) were tapped for call-ups, though the precise dates aren’t yet clear.

Every spring, MLBTR publishes a league-wide list of players who are out of minor league options. Those players, who by rule cannot be sent to the minors without first clearing outright waivers, are always worth watching with a close eye as Spring Training draws to a close, given the likelihood that a notable percentage of the list will either be traded or run through waivers prior to Opening Day. This year, 27 of those players have either changed organizations or been removed from the 40-man roster (in some cases, both) since the list’s publication — 17 in Spring Training and another 10 during the regular season. But even for those who dodge that DFA hammer, there’s little in the way of guarantees moving forward.

That’s all the more true for players on teams playing to win in 2019. A rebuilding club can afford to be more lenient with an out-of-options player in hopes that he eventually finds a rhythm and proves capable of helping down the line. The Royals surely aren’t thrilled that Jorge Lopez has an ERA north of 6.00 dating back to his acquisition last summer, but they need all the pitching they can get and Lopez was one of the pieces they received in the Mike Moustakas swap. For now, Kansas City will quite likely continue to give him chances, taking a bigger-picture approach as the club sits 12 games under .500.

A team like the Mets, however, is in a different situation. New York is in its first season under  a new general manager and in year two of Mickey Callaway’s tenure as manager. Ownership opted to go way outside the box in hiring former agent Brodie Van Wagenen as the GM, and he responded with a series of headline-grabbing moves aimed at getting the Mets back to contention. One of his smaller moves was to pick up out-of-options outfielder Keon Broxton from the Brewers in a trade that sent three players to Milwaukee. Now, with Broxton hitting .152/.220/.174 through 50 plate appearances in a backup outfield role, they’re faced with a tough decision. As Newsday’s Tim Healey points out, with Jed Lowrie’s return imminent, Broxton could be in jeopardy of losing his place on the roster.

The Astros don’t have such immediate pressure to make a roster move due a to player’s impending return, but they’re nevertheless eventually going to be forced to make a decision on a few out-of-options role players. None of Tony Kemp, Tyler White or Max Stassi is hitting much at the moment, and none of the bunch can be sent down to the minors.

As a backup catcher with a strong defensive reputation, Stassi could avoid any sort of roster crunch, and White is at least getting on base even if his power has curiously evaporated (.259/.362/.328 in 69 PAs). Kemp, though, is hitting just .188/.259/.313 in 55 plate appearances. Houston is winning plenty of games as it is, but they also have one of the game’s best offensive prospects, Yordan Alvarez, raking at a ridiculous .391/.481/.873 clip in Triple-A. Alvarez, a first baseman/outfielder, has 14 homers through his first 129 PAs this season. At some point, something will probably have to give. There’s an argument that Alvarez should already be in line for the lion’s share of at-bats at DH, with White sliding to the bench and Kemp perhaps being squeezed out.

Over in Minnesota, the Twins have stormed out to Major League Baseball’s best record — just as we all predicted, right? — while receiving a lowly .128/.222/.191 batting line from light-hitting utilityman Ehire Adrianza through 55 plate appearances. Miguel Sano has been out all season but is currently out on a minor league rehab assignment, and Minnesota’s offseason addition of Marwin Gonzalez made Adrianza somewhat redundant. While Gonzalez himself got out to a slow start, he’s showing signs of life after missing a chunk of Spring Training (.289/.386/.395 over his past 11 games). Minnesota may have delayed another such decision by putting struggling left-hander Adalberto Mejia (11 runs, 11 hits, nine walks, 11 strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings) on the 10-day injured list, but the Twins already cut ties with one out-of-options player by flipping Tyler Austin to the Giants. When Mejia returns, he’ll need to show some quick improvement.

The Athletics are facing one of the most difficult situations at present, having traded two players, international bonus money and a Competitive Balance draft pick to acquire Jurickson Profar this offseason. Oakland had hoped to land a potential infield multi-year infield option at a below-market salary but instead has seen Profar flounder both offensively and defensively; he’s hitting just .192/.250/.336 with eight errors (seven of the throwing variety) plus some additional questionable throws to first base. Franklin Barreto isn’t doing anything in Triple-A to force the issue, hitting just .216/.350/.363 in the Las Vegas/Pacific Coast League launching pad, but 23-year-old Jorge Mateo has hit .340/.378/.578 so far in Vegas. Given what the A’s surrendered to acquire Profar, he’s probably not in jeopardy of losing his roster spot. But if he doesn’t turn things around, the team will eventually reduce his role.

Elsewhere on the Oakland roster, right-hander Aaron Brooks opened the year as the fifth starter, but he’s been tattooed for a 5.74 ERA and eight home runs in just 31 1/3 innings of work. The Athletics’ rotation is dealing with plenty of injuries, most dating back to 2018, but the nearer those arms come to activation, the more his role comes into question. The A’s already have several healthy alternatives in Triple-A who are already on the 40-man roster, plus another who is not, in the form of Edwin Jackson. Eventually, the returns of Jharel Cotton, A.J. Puk and perhaps even Sean Manaea will impact the rotation, but there’s no guarantee Brooks will be a part of it by then.

The Diamondbacks entered the season looking like a team in transition but now find themselves in second place as others in the NL West (namely the Rockies) have struggled to unexpected levels. Arizona is five games over .500 and has already begun to act on its out-of-options players, designating Matt Koch for assignment and yanking Zack Godley from the rotation in favor of a bullpen role to get him sorted out. The D-backs love John Ryan Murphy’s glove and seem committed to carrying him even if it means rostering three catchers (although Alex Avila is injured at the moment), but Murphy will need to give them more than the .167/.245/.375 output and 41.5 percent strikeout rate he’s produced so far.

The Indians may have a similar view of Kevin Plawecki and his .167/.302/.333 line, particularly because their other catcher, Roberto Perez, is unlikely to ever provide much offense. Cleveland is struggling immensely at the moment, due largely to one of the game’s most feeble lineups. Eric Haase has nine homers in 100 PAs in Triple-A, but he’s also struck out 32 times and has an overall inferior Triple-A track record to that of Plawecki himself. Still, if the two continue at their current paces, it’ll be difficult not to contemplate a switch.

Looking around the league at the game’s most volatile assets, there’s a strangely large number of relievers on hopeful contenders who have averaged nearly a walk per inning pitched. Jesse Biddle (Braves), Chaz Roe (Rays) and Luis Garcia (Angels) all have ERAs of 3.38 or better, but each has also notched at least a 7.1 BB/9 mark on the young season. Seattle’s Zac Rosscup is in the same boat, though perhaps even more than the D-backs, it’s debatable whether the Mariners are a win-now club — particularly in light of a recent slump that has relegated them to just one game over .500.

Other win-now clubs have had their own share of poor bullpen performances from players who can’t be optioned, with the Nationals (Matt Grace), Indians (Neil Ramirez, Tyler Olson) and Phillies (Jose Alvarez) all experiencing relief issues. The Phils and Rays have moved on from one out-of-options player apiece recently in the form of Aaron Altherr’s DFA and Wilmer Font’s trade, and as leaders in tight divisional races, they have less cause to be patient than other clubs. For that matter, Font’s place on the Mets is hardly etched in stone, though injuries elsewhere on the staff  (Jason Vargas, Jeurys Familia) may create a chance for him to prove himself.

A team’s level of patience is key in any evaluation of an out-of-options player, of course, and that tolerance will always be somewhat context-dependent. The Astros are the runaway favorites in the AL West, so they can afford to exercise more patience with minimal fear of missing the playoffs or even of finding themselves in a one-game Wild Card showdown. The track record of the player in question also comes into play; the Brewers were expecting more from Jesus Aguilar than he’s shown so far, but he’s a 2018 All-Star who mashed 35 home runs a year ago and has maintained an excellent batted-ball profile while actually improving upon his K/BB numbers. A rebound seems likely, and last year’s excellence gives him more of leash than others in his situation would have.

There’s still plenty of season left, but clubs are approaching the 25 percent mark of the 2019 campaign, and mid-May to early June is frequently a time when we begin to see teams make notable changes to initial roster constructions that haven’t paid dividends. Within the next few weeks, several of these scenarios will likely lead to some degree of roster turnover.

Those changes can have far-reaching effects beyond the team making the actual change, as well. Players like Brad Hand, Kirby Yates and the aforementioned Aguilar were all out-of-options castoffs before rising to prominence in new environs. That’s a rare, best-case outcome scenario but one that underscores the ripple effect that even minor transactions can have on a team’s long-term outlook.