MLBTR Originals

The Reds have made a pair of claims already, nabbing Kevin Gausman from the Braves and Freddy Galvis from the Blue Jays. While the Cincinnati organization still hasn’t manage to make a run into clear postseason contention, it’s in shouting distance and obviously wants to send a message to its fanbase. With a marginal place in the standings, the Reds also have waiver priority over all other contenders. (Current rules do not distinguish between league status, except in cases where two teams with the same record each put in a claim.) The claims are relatively low-cost since there’s not much time left in the regular season (around $4MM in total) and both players can be controlled for 2020 (Gausman via arbitration, Galvis via club option). It’s also possible the Reds could pass along the contracts via the waiver wire later this month.

[RELATED: So, What Can Teams Do In August?]

It stands to reason that players in similar positions will be exposed to waivers as well. Those likeliest to hit the wire — beyond younger, fringe 40-man members — are arbitration-eligible players who are obvious non-tender candidates and impending free agents who no longer fit onto their current club. Gausman and Kyle Barraclough, whom the Giants recently claimed from the Nationals, represent recent examples of the first group. In such cases, teams stand to save a nice chunk of money if another team places a claim; if not, they only lose a player whose days in the organization were clearly numbered. Certain veterans on expiring contracts may also be allowed to leave, even if their non-contending current team would happily pay their salary down the stretch, in order to generate goodwill in pursuing future free agents. (That possibility explains why we’ve listed, say, Hunter Pence as a conceivable waiver candidate.)

It should be noted that players with guaranteed salaries beyond the 2019 season aren’t as likely to be waived in this manner. There’s little incentive for the Mariners to waive Dee Gordon, for instance. He’s owed more than $16MM and would surely go unclaimed as a result. At that point, he’d reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency, leaving the Mariners on the hook for the entirety of his contract. At best, Seattle would save the prorated league minimum if Gordon signed with another team. It makes more sense to hold him and try to move him in the offseason or even next year.

There ought to be demand on the claiming side. Plenty of needs remain unmet even on competitive rosters. It’s notable that the Nats and Braves saved money with their above-cited waiver placements; that could leave some addition free cash to utilize in adding other players. Some clear non-contenders will even work the wire, as the Blue Jays did with Zack Godley. It would seem there’s nothing to stop teams from discussing their intentions in advance — “hey, we’d claim him if you cut him loose” — to assuage any concerns about a player going unclaimed, which could perhaps even open the door to a surprising late-month claim or two.

With that in mind, it’s worth taking a look around the league to see which other players could land on waivers, focusing on contract status and other factors. Rebuilding and/or clearly non-contending clubs will obviously be contemplating ways to save some cash with moves of this nature. Some players on contending teams may be candidates to be cut loose regardless of their organization’s place in the standings — hence, the prior moves on Gausman and Barraclough — but we’ll focus here on organizations with sub-.500 records.

Just because a player lands on the list doesn’t mean we think it’s especially likely he’ll move by way of waivers; it just indicates we can see a path to such an outcome. Without further ado (teams listed by inverse order of record):

Tigers: Jordy Mercer, Gordon Beckham, Edwin Jackson

Orioles: Jace Peterson, Jonathan Villar

Royals: Billy Hamilton, Mike Montgomery

Marlins: Curtis Granderson, Neil Walker, Starlin Castro, Martin Prado, Adam Conley

Mariners: Cory Gearrin, Anthony Bass

Blue Jays: Zack Godley, Neil Ramirez, Justin Smoak

Pirates: Francisco Liriano, Melky Cabrera

Rockies: Chris Iannetta (DFA limbo), Chad Bettis

White Sox: Ivan Nova, Welington Castillo, Jon Jay, Yolmer Sanchez

Padres: Craig Stammen, Ian Kinsler

Reds: Jose Iglesias, Freddy Galvis, Alex Wood, Kevin Gausman, Jared Hughes

Angels: Justin Bour, Trevor Cahill

Rangers: Hunter Pence, Logan Forsythe, Delino DeShields, Shawn Kelley, David Carpenter

Additional Possibilities: Adeiny Hechavarria (Mets; DFA limbo), Addison Russell (Cubs), Travis Shaw (Brewers), Michael Taylor (Nationals), Michael Wacha (Cardinals)

(It’s possible that the win/loss outcomes over the next two weeks will push some other organizations to consider dropping short-term veterans, but we won’t guess here as to how that’ll shake out. The players on contending teams just listed could be pushed out due to performance/roster considerations, regardless of their teams’ place in the standings.)

Last winter’s free-agent market was debated for years in advance. Its slow pace led to a long period of tension that has extended into early CBA negotiations. There was and is much at stake that goes beyond the bounds of the individual contracts that were negotiated. But those specific deals are also interesting and important standing alone — particularly those that involved significant, multi-year commitments.

We’ll check in on the thirteen players who signed for $30MM or more in total guaranteed money to see how those contracts look now that we’re more than two-thirds of the way through their first seasons. We’ve already gone through the five position players. Now, here are the eight pitchers who inked such deals:

Patrick Corbin, SP, Nationals (6 years, $140MM): Corbin has been just about everything the Nats hoped he’d be, turning in 141 2/3 innings of 3.43 ERA ball with 10.4 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 along with a 46.0% groundball rate. The numbers aren’t quite as exceptional as they were last year, but it’s promising to see that he has mostly maintained his breakout (and has even nudged his velocity back a bit toward his career average). It still feels like a pretty heavy price, but … let’s just say the D.C. org is probably pleased it made this investment rather than topping the Phillies to bring back Bryce.

Nathan Eovaldi, SP, Red Sox (4 years, $67.5MM): Yeah, I know he’s pitching as a reliever for the moment. But that’s not what he was signed for. And it doesn’t even capture the full scope of the problems. Eovaldi came back to the Boston bullpen from a long elbow-related absence. He’s pumping heat, as usual, but the results have been ugly all year long. Eovaldi does carry a 14:2 K/BB ratio in 7 2/3 innings as a reliever, but he has also been tagged for a .591 batting average in balls in play and seven earned runs in that capacity. Overall, his swinging-strike rate has dropped back to 8.8% after popping up to 10.7% last year. There’s still time for the 29-year-old to figure things out, but his performance thus far has left his 2018 uptick looking like an outlier.

Yusei Kikuchi, SP, Mariners (4 years, $56MM): MLBTR’s Connor Byrne took a closer look at Kikuchi just the other day, so I’ll point you to that rather than re-listing the core facts here. The key fact for the Seattle organization is that Kikuchi was always a long-term play rather than a win-now gambit, so there’s still hope they can help him learn and adjust. But the initial showing doesn’t admit of much promise.

Zack Britton, RP, Yankees (3 years, $39MM): The groundball artist formerly known as “Zach” doesn’t get swings and misses like he did in his prime, but he’s still excelling with a 2.30 ERA in 47 frames. Opposing hitters still haven’t figured out the power sinker. They’re putting the ball on the ground at a 78.7% clip and failing (particularly given this offensive environment) to put the ball over the fence (0.57 HR/9). Britton is again giving out more free passes than one might prefer, but he’s better equipped to erase them with double plays than any reliever in the history of baseball.

J.A. Happ, SP, Yankees (2 years, $34MM): The Yanks’ other significant pitching investment hasn’t worked out as well. Happ is through 115 innings of 5.24 ERA ball, with 7.1 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9 and a hefty 26 home runs allowed. The velo is fine. The swings and misses are at the same level as his successful 2018. But Happ just hasn’t been able to tamp down the hard contact and has been far too prone to the long ball. The positive is that the veteran southpaw is healthy and still seems to be exhibiting the same arsenal and general skillset that has worked for him in recent seasons.

Charlie Morton, SP, Rays (2 years, $30MM): And you thought Happ had a late-career renaissance. It’s still unclear why the Astros didn’t issue Morton a qualifying offer after his strong two-year run with the team. He has been even better in Tampa Bay, spinning 143 frames of 2.77 ERA pitching with 11.0 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, and a 49.1% groundball rate. Morton has allowed only eleven long balls, a markedly low figure for a starter in this offensive context. He’s a fantastic buy on this deal.

Jeurys Familia, RP, Mets (3 years, $30MM): I won’t lie. This struck me as a nice move for the Mets at the time it was made. Familia still hasn’t reached thirty years of age and was a solid late-inning asset in 2018. Unfortunately, he has fallen apart in his return to New York. Through 37 2/3 innings, he’s sporting an awful 6.69 ERA with 9.3 K/9 and 7.4 BB/9. Familia is having trouble getting opposing hitters to chase out of the zone, which is leading to the walks and explains the reduction in his swinging-strike rate (from 14.1% last year to 10.2%). He’s not throwing his four-seamer as hard as usual, but his heavily utilized sinker is still sitting in its typical 96+ mph range. While there’s still hope of a turnaround, it’s safe to say that rival clubs wouldn’t be anxious to take on the remainder of this deal.

Lance Lynn, SP, Rangers (3 years, $30MM): The most surprising $30MM+ contract is also arguably the best value of them all. The 32-year-old Lynn has had plenty of effective seasons in the majors, but he has by some measures never been better than in 2019. He’s throwing harder than ever and carrying a career-best 21.8% K%-BB% on a personal-high 12.3% swinging-strike rate. Statcast is impressed, crediting Lynn with a .279 xwOBA-against that’s even better than the .294 wOBA actually produced by opposing batters. It’s fair to wonder whether Lynn can keep up quite this level of work for the final two years of the deal, but the pact has obviously turned into quite the asset for the Texas organization.

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I suppose we could’ve looked fully at Craig Kimbrel, who signed with the Cubs in mid-season after shedding draft compensation, but it seems premature to attempt an assessment just 14 appearances into his $43MM contract.

Last winter’s free-agent market was debated for years in advance. Its slow pace led to a long period of tension that has extended into early CBA negotiations. There was and is much at stake that goes beyond the bounds of the individual contracts that were negotiated. But those specific deals are also interesting and important standing alone — particularly those that involved significant, multi-year commitments.

We’ll take a look in at the thirteen players who signed for $30MM or more in total guaranteed money to see how those contracts look now that we’re more than two-thirds of the way through their first seasons. Here are the five position players who inked such deals:

Bryce Harper, OF, Phillies (13 years, $330MM): Harper has turned his back on those ugly defensive metrics from a year ago. So, that’s nice. Much less encouraging: Harper is back-sliding in plate discipline (26.3% K rate vs. 15.6% BB rate) and power (.215 ISO). He’s swinging and missing more than ever (14.7%). Notably, his contact rate on pitches in the strike zone has stayed below 80% in each of the past two seasons, a rather notable downturn given that he had previously registered in the mid-eighties. Statcast hints at some poor fortune (.355 wOBA vs. .374 xwOBA), and we might reasonably anticipate some movement back towards Harper’s career mean, but the overall results haven’t been terribly promising for a player who is owed a lot of money over an exceptionally lengthy period of time.

Manny Machado, 3B, Padres (10 years, $300MM): Like Harper, Machado owns a good but hardly overwhelming 117 wRC+. The Friars third bagger just hasn’t stung the ball quite as often as he did in the two prior seasons. And his strikeout rate sits at a career-high 20.2%. While Machado could end up setting a career high-water mark in long balls with 26 already in the bag (his prior his is 37), he hasn’t been quite as good at the plate as one might have hoped in year one of a decade-long commitment.

A.J. Pollock, OF, Dodgers (4 years, $55MM): Another round of elbow issues has limited Pollock and he’s carrying a league-average .257/.319/.444 batting line. That’s not great at first glance, but the situation is more promising when you look more closely. The elbow surgery he underwent may finally have put an end to his long-running series of issues in that joint. And he has raked since returning from the injured list. It’d be foolish to say that this contract is working out perfectly, but it’s far too soon to label it a bust.

Andrew McCutchen, OF, Phillies (3 years, $50MM): This one was off to such a promising start. Cutch was walking like a maniac while delivering solid pop to open the season, but went down with a devastating knee injury in his 59th game of action. He’ll have plenty of time to get ready for 2020, but the Phillies lost a big chunk of the anticipated early production from the signing and will have to wait to see whether the ACL repair will cost the venerable veteran some of his athleticism.

Michael Brantley, OF, Astros (2 years, $32MM): The last position player on this list has outperformed all the others. Brantley is maintaining his typically exceptional contact rates while hitting for more power than ever before (.192 ISO, 16 home runs in 467 plate appearances). He’s also receiving strong marks for his glovework. This deal is working out swimmingly for the ’Stros.

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We ought to give an honorable mention to the players who signed big one-year deals when they could have topped $30MM in a multi-year scenario. Josh Donaldson ($23MM) and Yasmani Grandal ($18.25MM) have each been excellent. (Ditto Nelson Cruz, though the long-in-the-tooth DH’s $14.3MM single-season salary suggests he didn’t quite have that level of earning power.)

MLBTR is the hottest spot on the internet for all your arbitration needs! I know, I know … bold marketing statement. But it’s true. We take the arb process seriously in these parts, from essential arbitration projections to detailed breakdowns to in-time coverage of the market as it unfolds. (Wondering about those projections? No doubt we’ll be aiming again for an early-October release.)

We also understand that the arb process is a bit of a wonky niche in the baseball transactional world. Even big hearing victories like these barely register on the news wire. But they are still quite important. And many smaller decisions are as well. If you’re the type who appreciates this sort of thing … well, that’s why you’re here.

Anyway, that’s all a bit of background to help explain why I thought it’d be worthwhile to follow up on a few notable players who were non-tendered (or designated just before the tender deadline) by their teams last fall. I even invented a new term, “re-tendered,” to encapsulate players who go from being non-tendered one year to offered arbitration again with another team. (Exciting times, I know.) This doesn’t work for non-tendered players who have already exhausted their arb eligibility (hence, no Avisail Garcia). We also won’t list players who are not yet arb-eligible but were non-tendered last fall (it’s possible for pre-arb players, too; Adrian Sampson is a possible example).

Tim Beckham would’ve been a prime candidate but for his recent PED suspension. Here are six remaining re-tender candidates:

Derek Dietrich, INF, Reds: Okay, he wasn’t technically non-tendered. But Dietrich was designated by the Marlins just before the non-tender deadline, so he’s in. Dietrich ended up on a minors deal in Cincinnati that pays $2MM in the bigs. He has repaid that handsomely, with 273 plate appearances of .207/.349/.514 hitting. While he hasn’t maintained an early storm of productivity, Dietrich remains a plausible tender candidate for 2020.

James McCann, C, White Sox: Another player who has faded after a blistering start, McCann still seems an easy tender choice for the White Sox. That’s a bummer for the division-rival Tigers, who finally decided to cut him loose. McCann owns a .282/.338/.458 batting line with a dozen long balls in 335 plate appearances.

Matt Shoemaker, SP, Blue Jays: He is nearing his 33rd birthday and has been hurt an awful lot — including an ACL tear that cost him the bulk of the present campaign. But Shoemaker has talent, as evidenced by the 1.57 ERA he posted in five starts before shredding his knee. He signed with the pitching-needy Jays for $3.5MM over the winter after the Angels non-tendered him. Perhaps the Toronto organization will double down, bettering that a lengthy respite for Shoemaker’s right arm will help him finally bounce back in full in 2020.

Hunter Strickland, RP, Nationals: Another player who was DFA’ed just before the arb decision point, the former Giants late-inning man signed in Seattle for $1.3MM and ended up in D.C. on deadline day. Strickland hasn’t actually thrown many innings this season due to injury, but a solid showing down the stretch could make him a keeper for a Nats club that will be looking to fill multiple bullpen vacancies over the offseason to come.

Blake Parker, RP, Phillies: Non-tendered by the Angels and inked for $1.8MM by the Twins, Parker sacrificed the remainder of his guaranteed salary when he elected free agency after he was cut loose by the Minnesota org earlier this season. He has already coughed up four earned runs on two long balls in five innings in Philly. The thing is, the Philadelphia organization is facing a strain on its relief unit and has good reason to keep running Parker out there. He has run up eight strikeouts without a walk thus far in Philly. While his velocity has continued to trail off, it’s still imaginable he’ll end up being worth a relatively affordable tender this fall.

Chris Herrmann, C, Athletics: It’s too soon to say on Herrmann, who’s earning just $1MM in Oakland after being non-tendered by the Astros following an offseason deal from the Mariners. He hasn’t hit a ton since making it back from a long injured list stint, but Herrmann has a nice opportunity ahead of him down the stretch. It’s certainly possible to imagine he’ll show the A’s enough to warrant a tender. You could throw teammate Robbie Grossman on this list, too, though he has produced tepid numbers in a much lengthier sample this year.

Did I miss anyone? Let me know in the comments!

The staggering number of extensions teams doled out leading up to this season was among Major League Baseball’s main storylines last spring. Some of the players who inked those deals (Mike Trout and Ronald Acuna Jr., to name a couple) have picked up where they left off prior to receiving their new pacts. Others have fallen short of expectations, on the other hand. Here are several notable examples of just-extended players who have disappointed this season…

Chris Sale, LHP, Red Sox (five years, $145MM):

• Sale’s velocity began to plummet late last year – a season limited by shoulder problems – but after the Red Sox’s latest World Series triumph in the fall, they decided to make a big-money, long-term commitment to the southpaw. Unfortunately for Boston, Sale’s velocity hasn’t really recovered (at least not to its summer 2018 levels) during what has been a less-than-ideal season for him and the reigning champions. The 30-year-old entered 2019 having never logged an ERA higher than 3.41 in a season, but the number has skyrocketed to 4.68 through 132 2/3 innings in the current campaign. Furthermore, Sale’s average exit velocity against has climbed from 84.7 mph to 88.2 since last season, while his expected weighted on-base average has soared from .238 to .292. Most pitchers would sign up for a .292 mark, though, and Sale does remain a bear to deal with despite his sudden difficulty preventing runs. His 3.55 FIP, 3.06 xFIP and 3.10 SIERA are all terrific, as his 13.09 K/9 against 2.37 BB/9. Sale is clearly still a major asset, but he hasn’t been the elite force we’ve grown accustomed to watching.

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Cardinals (five years, $130MM):

• Set to turn 32 next month, Goldschmidt’s on track for the worst full season of his storied career, having hit .253/.333/.461 in 477 plate appearances. Although the former Diamondback has racked up 25 home runs, his offensive output has only been 8 percent better than the league-average batter, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. Goldschmidt’s walks are down, his strikeouts are up, he’s chasing more out-of-zone pitches than ever, and his expected weighted on-base average – .351, a bit better than his .342 real wOBA – is down 33 points from last year. St. Louis didn’t expect any of that this season when it inked Goldschmidt to a franchise-record accord several months ago.

Randal Grichuk, OF, Blue Jays (five years, $52MM):

• Grichuk’s the one player on this list whose extension has already taken effect. While he is enjoying a red-hot early August, albeit one buoyed by a .533 batting average on balls in play, his season has still been a letdown compared to last year’s strong offensive showing. Never known for getting on base much throughout his career, the 27-year-old has batted .240/.296/.432 with 18 HRs across 452 PA. Grichuk’s ISO has sunk 65 points since 2018, having gone from .257 to .192. At the same time, his .286 xwOBA (compared to a .308 wOBA) only ranks in the league’s 11th percentile.

Matt Carpenter, 3B, Cardinals (two years, $39MM):

• Carpenter, like his teammate Goldschmidt, isn’t showing encouraging signs months after landing his new contract. The 33-year-old joined Goldschmidt as one of the National League’s top players from 2013-18, but he has hit a below-average .218/.325/.368 with 10 homers in 360 trips to the plate during an injury-shortened 2019 season. Carpenter’s walk, strikeout and isolated power numbers have all gone in worrying directions, while his .320 xwOBA (superior to a .300 wOBA, granted) is merely mediocre and far below where it was in recent years. Carpenter didn’t post an xwOBA worse than .383 in any season from 2015-18.

Khris Davis, DH, Athletics (two years, $33.5MM):

• After four straight years of hitting .247 and three straight seasons of swatting 40-plus home runs, the low-budget Athletics took a gamble by locking up Davis to a relatively big contract. He’s off to a tough start thus far. With minus-0.5 fWAR in 388 PA, Davis has been among the majors’ least valuable players this year. He’s hitting .230/.299/.398 with 17 homers and a .168 ISO, which is 134 points lower than the figure he recorded just a year ago. Davis is also barreling approximately 7 percent fewer pitches than he did from 2016-18, and his average exit velocity has fallen about 2.5 mph compared to the previous couple years. Although the 31-year-old’s .325 xwOBA does easily outdo his .299 wOBA, it still represents a significant drop-off for a player who put up a mark upward of .370 in each of the prior three seasons. In fairness to Davis, he has battled multiple injuries this year, so perhaps he’ll rebound if healthier in 2020.

This is the fourth and final piece in a series previewing offseason club option decisions. This edition will focus on relievers…

Right-handers

• Tony Barnette, Cubs ($3MM option): Barnette hasn’t been a factor this year in Chicago, where he has thrown just 1 1/3 innings. The former Ranger sat out until late June because of shoulder issues and then landed on the restricted list July 1 for personal reasons. He won’t be a Cub again in 2020, at least not for $3MM.
• Jared Hughes, Reds ($3MM option or $250K buyout): The grounder-heavy Hughes overcame a lack of strikeouts to post ERAs ranging from 1.96 to 3.03 as a Pirate and Red from 2013-18. While Hughes has continued to induce grounders at a world-class clip this year (62.1 percent), the run prevention hasn’t been there. He owns a 4.36 ERA/4.94 FIP with 6.23 K/9, 3.53 BB/9 and a 22.2 percent home run-to-fly ball rate over 43 1/3 innings. Hughes has also seen his swinging-strike rate dip by almost 3 percent since last season. The Reds could try to upgrade over the 34-year-old, though his track record of keeping opposing teams at bay – not to mention an affordable price tag for 2020 – may save him if they decide his HR troubles are a fluke. Opponents have mustered a meager .668 OPS off Hughes this season, so clubs aren’t exactly lighting him up.
• Jeremy Jeffress, Brewers ($4.3MM option): Jeffress, 32 next month, hasn’t come close to replicating the dream season he put together in 2018. His average fastball velocity has dipped about 2 mph (from 95.3 to 93.7), which has helped lead to a 4 percent drop in swinging-strike rate, an 8 percent fall in his strikeout rate and a 10.5 percent decline in his grounder rate. His 5.00 ERA and 3.99 FIP through 45 innings aren’t great, either. However, despite a litany of red flags, Jeffress still looks cheap enough for the Brewers to bring back.
• Nate Jones, Rangers ($3.75MM option or $1.25MM buyout): Once among the game’s top relievers, injuries have derailed the 33-year-old Jones’ career in recent seasons. He has thrown just 10 1/3 innings in 2019 and is out for the season after undergoing right forearm surgery in May. The Rangers nonetheless took on Jones in a deadline trade with the White Sox, and they seem likely to give him a shot to make an impact next year.
• Shawn Kelley, Rangers ($2.5MM option or $250K buyout): Meanwhile, it’ll be a bigger surprise if the Rangers don’t retain Kelley, who – despite some health issues this year – has worked to a 3.00 ERA/4.09 FIP with 8.73 K/9 and 1.36 BB/9 in 33 innings.
• Brandon Morrow, Cubs ($12MM option or $3MM buyout): Morrow was brilliant when healthy from 2017-18, but he hasn’t pitched since last July because of elbow problems. Although Morrow expects to return sometime this season, it’s hard to believe the oft-injured 35-year-old will have enough time to show the Cubs they should invest another large sum of money in him for 2020.
• Pat Neshek, Phillies ($7MM option or $750K buyout): Neshek has been ineffective when healthy this year and may be done for the season on account of a hamstring injury. It’ll be a shock if the Phillies pick up his option over the winter.
• Dan Otero, Indians ($1.5MM option or $100K buyout): While he’ll be extremely affordable next season, Otero hasn’t done much this year to justify even a small investment. Out since the end of May with shoulder inflammation, the 34-year-old has recorded a 4.56 ERA/5.62 FIP with 3.8 strikeouts per nine. He also had a hard time keeping the opposition off the scoreboard in 2018.
• Yusmeiro Petit, Athletics ($5.5MM option or $1MM buyout): Petit, 34, has been a valuable workhorse out of the A’s bullpen since he joined the team prior to 2018. Through 153 innings with the franchise, Petit has pitched to a 2.82 ERA/3.89 FIP with 7.35 K/9 and 1.41 BB/9. He’ll stick around in 2020.
• David Phelps, Cubs ($1MM option that can increase based on appearances): Phelps, whom the Cubs acquired from the Blue Jays at the deadline, has an option that will climb to $3MM if he makes 30 appearances, $5MM at 40 and $7MM at 50. He’s currently at 20, over which he has put up a 3.86 ERA/4.61 FIP with 9.64 K/9 against 3.86 BB/9. Considering Phelps’ floating option value, it’s too soon to forecast whether he’ll return to the Cubs next year. It’ll depend how well the soon-to-be 33-year-old performs through season’s end and the amount of appearances he winds up making.
• Adam Warren, Padres ($2.5MM option or $500K buyout): The value of Warren’s 2020 option looked more than reasonable entering the season, but the ex-Yankee, Cub and Mariner has since endured a rocky few months in San Diego. Not only has Warren been on ice for two months with a right forearm strain, but he managed an unappealing 5.34 ERA/6.91 FIP in 28 2/3 innings before hitting the shelf. It’s likely he’ll end up back on the open market over the winter.

Left-handers

• Jake Diekman, Athletics ($5.75MM mutual option or $500K buyout): Diekman’s year, which he has divided between Kansas City and Oakland, has been a mixed bag. His 4.91 ERA and 5.32 BB/9 across 44 innings are ugly, yet he has notched a 3.49 FIP and 13.5 strikeouts per nine. The low-budget A’s may not want to invest in Diekman again next season, however, even if he exercises his half of a mutual option.
• Sean Doolittle, Nationals ($6.5MM option or $500K buyout): The Nationals will absolutely keep Doolittle – by far their brightest light in what has been a shaky bullpen.
• Aaron Loup, Padres ($2MM option): An elbow sprain has kept Loup out of action since April 7. If he does return this season, the 31-year-old will need a strong finish to give himself any chance to collect $2MM from the Padres in 2020.
• Oliver Perez, Indians ($2.75MM option): Perez’s option will automatically vest at 55 appearances. He’s 10 away right now, having registered a 2.79 ERA/3.18 FIP with 10.86 K/9 and 2.48 BB/9 in 45 games and 29 innings. Barring a serious injury or a trade, he’ll be an Indian again in 2020.