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Miguel Cabrera’s Power Is MIA

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It’s no surprise this has been a lean year for the rebuilding Tigers, who sit near the bottom of the majors at 20-32 through two months. A team can still be entertaining even if it’s not good enough to contend, but the Tigers have largely failed in that respect. If you like offense, you should probably avoid watching Detroit. The Tigers rank second to last in the majors in runs (180) and wRC+ (74), leading only the Marlins in those categories, while they’re better than just the Fish and the Giants in OPS (.658).

Part of the Tigers’ problem has been the sharp decline of future Hall of Fame first baseman Miguel Cabrera, whose long-running days as a force may be gone. With a .294/.368/.369 line, Cabrera’s one of just two qualified hitters on this year’s Tigers with a wRC+ of 100 (league average), but that’s not saying much in his case. After all, Cabrera is one of the greatest hitters ever, a former Triple Crown winner and the owner of a magnificent .316/.394/.547 slash with 2,730 hits and 467 home runs across 9,895 plate appearances. He also boasts a 148 wRC+ that ranks 32nd in the history of the game.

After debuting with the aforementioned Marlins as a 20-year-old wunderkind in 2003, Cabrera became a perennial 30-home run threat and has since hit at least that many in 10 seasons. The right-hander blasted 38 HRs in 2016, which is looking more and more like the final high-power season he’ll ever have. Cabrera notched 16 in 529 trips to the plate in 2017 and then three in an injury-shortened, 157-PA campaign last season.

Through 212 PA this year, his age-36 season, Cabrera has added a meager two HRs to his ledger. Perhaps of greater concern, Cabrera possesses the majors’ third-lowest ISO (.075), bettering only two members of the Marlins’ dreary offense – Miguel Rojas and Starlin Castro – in that category. Even though Cabrera’s .149 mark from 2017-18 was between 12 and 22 points below league average in those seasons, it looks appealing compared to where he stands nowadays. What’s alarming is that there’s not much evidence to suggest Cabrera is due for an enormous turnaround. Given that Cabrera’s one of the game’s slowest runners, it’s unlikely his .371 batting BABIP will stick around and continue to help prop up his batting average. And while Cabrera’s expected weighted on-base average (.336) does outpace his real mark (.322), it’s closer to middle of the pack than exceptional.

On one hand, it seems unwise to shovel dirt on the career of a two-time MVP and 11-time All-Star. It’s quite possible, though, that age has reduced Cabrera to an unspectacular offensive player who’s neither all that valuable in the field nor on the bases. That sounds a lot like the Angels’ Albert Pujols, a baseball luminary who has become a replacement-level player (or worse) in recent seasons.

Pujols’ enormous contract – a 10-year, $240MM albatross that runs through 2021 – has weighed the Angels down during his decline phase and will continue to do so until it expires. Detroit may be in the same position with Cabrera, whom it signed to an eight-year, $248MM extension entering the 2014 season. Cabrera will make a $30MM salary through 2021 and $32MM between 2022-23 before the Tigers buy him out for $8MM (in lieu of a $30MM club option) going into 2024. But Cabrera may already be amid an irreversible downward spiral with $151MM left on his deal, which is a horrifying possibility for the Tigers.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Draft Retrospection: Dodgers Steal A Superstar

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It was June 2013, six years ago, that the Dodgers secured one of the greatest draft steals in recent memory. In the fourth round, with the 124th overall pick, the Dodgers chose an Arizona high school first baseman/pitcher named Cody Bellinger. Although Bellinger’s the son of a former big leaguer, ex-Yankees and Angels infielder/outfielder Clay Bellinger, that didn’t make him a slam dunk to turn into a contributor at the MLB level.

Scouts were somewhat bullish on Bellinger at the time of his drafting, though, with some likening him to former major league first baseman Adam LaRoche (via Baseball America). Although LaRoche had a better and longer career than most, it’s obvious Bellinger has blown by him two-plus seasons into his career. In fact, Bellinger already has a superior lifetime fWAR to LaRoche (11.9 to 11.5) despite having amassed almost 5,000 fewer plate appearances.

Even though he didn’t come off the board near the very top of his draft class, Bellinger developed into one of the game’s 100 best prospects and immediately made good on the hype in the bigs. Los Angeles promoted Bellinger in April 2017, a season in which he saw extensive action at two positions – first base and left field – and wound up taking home NL Rookie of the Year honors.

Bellinger slashed .267/.352/.581 (138 wRC+) in his inaugural season, smacked the majors’ fifth-most home runs (39) and stole 10 bases. While Bellinger wasn’t as effective in 2018, he still recorded a solidly above-average line of .260/.343/.470 (120 wRC+) with another 25 homers and 14 steals.

Had the 23-year-old Bellinger showed up this season and been the same type of producer he was in 2018, the Dodgers likely would have been satisfied. Instead, through two months, he has looked like a bona fide superstar and the No. 1 challenger to reigning NL MVP Christian Yelich. With an astounding .363/.469/.761 slash, Bellinger easily ranks first in wRC+ (216), outpacing the second-place Yelich (188) by 28 points and baseball deity Mike Trout (172) by 44. Yelich does have a two-home run lead on Bellinger (21-19), but the latter has clearly been the more valuable player by Wins Above Replacement (5.2 rWAR/4.3 fWAR to 2.9/3.0).

Are Bellinger’s otherworldly offensive numbers sustainable? Perhaps not, as it’s hard to keep up a 1.200-plus OPS all season unless you’re Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Rogers Horsnby, Jimmie Foxx or another legend along those lines. But the strides Bellinger has made are very real. He has slashed his strikeout rate to 13.8 percent, down 10.1 percent from 2018, while increasing his walk rate from 10.9 to 14.3. He’s also hitting way more line drives and far fewer ground balls, making much more contact, whiffing less and chasing fewer out-of-zone pitches than he did in previous years. Meanwhile, Statcast credits the lefty-swinging Bellinger with the game’s top-ranked expected weighted on-base average (.504) – which is somehow better than his .500 real wOBA.

Adding to Bellinger’s appeal, he’s hardly an offense-only player. While it’s tough to get too exited about two months of defensive data, it’s similarly difficult not to raise eyebrows over his fielding numbers. In 46 games in right field this season, Bellinger has already put up 12 Defensive Runs Saved and a 4.9 Ultimate Zone Rating. He ranks top three among all outfielders in those categories. As Mark Simon of Sports Info Solutions noted last week, Bellinger’s left arm has been his greatest asset in the field. He fired the cannon on multiple occasions Sunday to stonewall Mets base runners.

With this year’s draft nearing, Bellinger’s rise is an important one to keep in mind. Aside from Cubs great Kris Bryant and arguably the Yankees’ Aaron Judge, Bellinger has outdone every first-round pick from his draft class. They each went anywhere from 91 to 123 choices before Bellinger, but he may soon follow Bryant in becoming the class’ second MVP. More importantly for the Dodgers, who continue to fire on all cylinders, the player they once used a mere fourth-rounder on could end up as the face of a World Series winner as early as this season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Sonny Gray Looks Reborn

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Two years after the Athletics chose Sonny Gray 18th overall in the 2011 draft, the right-hander made his major league debut at the age of 23 and quickly became one of the game’s premier young hurlers. From 2013-15, a 491-inning span, Gray posted the majors’ 10th-lowest ERA (2.88), 11th-best groundball percentage (54.2) and 31st-ranked FIP (3.36) among starters. Gray was a front-end rotation piece at that point, but injury issues helped knock him off the rails in 2016. Gray rebounded a season later, but the Athletics elected to cash him and his remaining year and a half of control in at that July’s trade deadline.

The A’s sent Gray to the Yankees in what became a failed union between him and New York. In 2018 – Gray’s lone full season with the club – he produced abysmal results at the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, where he ran up a 6.98 ERA as batters teed off on him for a .318/.406/.527 line. Gray’s struggles convinced the Yankees to pull him from their rotation during the summer and then leave him off their playoff roster in the fall.

It quickly became obvious in the offseason the Yankees would move on from Gray, who general manager Brian Cashman admitted needed a change of scenery. In January, three-plus months after Cashman telegraphed Gray’s exit, he traded the 29-year-old to the starter-starved Reds.

Before Gray ever threw a pitch in a Cincinnati uniform, the team signed him to a three-year, $30.5MM extension to prevent him from testing free agency during the upcoming winter. Well, two months into the season, that contract looks like a steal. Gray has come back with a vengeance as a member of the Reds, with whom he has posted a 3.54 ERA/2.99 FIP through 56 innings. Along the way, Gray has registered career bests in strikeout rate (10.29 per nine), groundball percentage (55.9), infield fly percentage (10.8) and contact rate (73.7 percent). Furthermore, even though Gray ranks near the bottom of the league in strike percentage for the second straight year, he has decreased his walk rate 2018 (from 3.94 to 3.54). He has also given up home runs on just 10.8 percent of fly balls, down from a combined 15.3 percent from 2016-18.

It’s probably fair to credit some of Gray’s revival to Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson, who was also Gray’s pitching coach at Vanderbilt, though his impact is difficult to quantify. It seems to have helped that Gray has moved back to his high-spin four-seam fastball, a pitch the Yankees discouraged from throwing. Gray has gone to the pitch 37.7 percent of the time this year after throwing it at a 26.5 percent clip in 2018. But it’s Gray’s slider and sinker – offerings he has used at a combined 38.1 percent rate – that have been his most effective pitches this year, per Statcast. Hitters have mustered a horrid .102 weighted on-base average against Gray’s slider and a weak .260 mark off his sinker. All told, Gray’s expansive repertoire has limited batters to a .278 wOBA, which is right in line with his .272 xwOBA. Both of those figures are roughly 50-point improvements from the numbers Gray recorded in those categories during his forgettable 2018 as a Yankee.

Thanks in no small part to Gray’s resurgence, the Reds’ rotation has leapt from horrid to good in a year. Last season’s staff hung out at the bottom of the league’s pitching leaderboard, whereas Gray & Co. entered Tuesday fourth in ERA and fWAR. If not for the Reds’ disappointing offense, albeit one that’s throttling the Pirates at the moment, perhaps they’d be serious playoff contenders.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Twins Go Bargain Shopping, Reap Rewards

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It’s May 28, two full months into the season, and the Twins are atop Major League Baseball in record (36-17), run differential (plus-110), runs (319) and home runs (105). They’re already almost halfway to last season’s win total (78) with 109 games to go. If you didn’t think the Twins would be in this position, one that sees them leading the preseason AL Central favorite Indians by 10 games, you’re part of a club with countless members.

So how have the Twins done it? Largely with homegrown products. Shortstop Jorge Polanco, outfielders Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler, and right-hander Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson are among those who have been at the forefront of Minnesota’s charge up the standings. But many of the additions executives Derek Falvey and Thad Levine made this past offseason, when they happened to lock up Polanco and Kepler to sweetheart extensions, have played significant roles in the Twins’ greatness thus far.

As far as winter pickups went, the Twins’ costliest acquisitions – free-agent signings Marwin Gonzalez (two years, $21MM) and Nelson Cruz (one year, $14.3MM) – received the lion’s share of attention entering the season. As the Twins expected, they’ve been prominent pieces in 2019. However, some of the Falvey-Levine duo’s less expensive buys have been arguably as important.

Over 20 percent of the Twins’ league-high HR total has come from first baseman C.J. Cron and second baseman Jonathan Schoop, who have combined for 23 dingers. The 29-year-old Cron arrived in late November as a waiver claim from the Rays, who cut him even though he was coming off a 30-home run campaign in which he slashed .253/.323/.493 (122 wRC+). Low-budget Tampa Bay wasn’t on board with paying Cron upward of $5MM via arbitration. He ended up settling for a bit less, $4.8MM, shortly after joining the Twins. Since then, they’ve benefited from Cron’s .270/.333/.534 (125 wRC+) line with 13 HRs in 198 trips to the plate. It doesn’t look like a fluke, as Cron is walking more, striking out less, chasing fewer out-of-zone pitches and making more contact than he did in 2018. He also boasts an expected weighted on-base average (.376) that sits nine points higher than his real wOBA (.367).

To this point, Cron has replaced now-retired franchise icon Joe Mauer’s production with aplomb. Schoop also had a tough act to follow in Brian Dozier, an excellent Twin from 2012-17 whom the team traded last summer amid a disappointing season. So far, Schoop hasn’t been fazed either.

Like Dozier, Schoop followed up an impressive 2017 with a down ’18, in which the Orioles traded him to the Brewers in July. Schoop wasn’t good with either team last year, and the Brewers understandably decided after the season to non-tender him instead of giving him a potential $10MM-plus salary in arbitration.

On Dec. 6, a week after he reached free agency, Schoop found a new home in Minnesota at a $7.5MM salary. The 27-year-old has begun his Twins tenure by slashing .266/.321/.514 (118 wRC+) with 10 HRs through 187 trips to the plate. Whether it’s sustainable is in question, though. Schoop has posted below-average strikeout and walk rates, which admittedly has been the case throughout his time in the majors, while swinging and missing at an all-time high rate and making less contact than ever. Encouragingly, though, there isn’t a large gap between Schoop’s wOBA (.356) and xwOBA (.347).

With the help of Cron and Schoop, the Twins’ offense has been the driving force behind their first-place start. But pitching has also been a major reason for the team’s revival. Berrios, Jake Odorizzi and Kyle Gibson get most of the attention in their rotation, but another offseason scrapheap pickup – left-hander Martin Perez – has logged a sterling 2.17 ERA through 49 2/3 innings out of their rotation. Before he got to Minnesota, Perez was largely a back-end starter in Texas from 2012-18. He was borderline unusable last year, an injury-shortened campaign, and the Rangers declined his $6MM club option thereafter. In doing so, the Rangers had to pay Perez nearly half that money ($2.35MM). They weren’t exactly teeming with starters at the time, which showed how far the former promising prospect, 28, fell out of favor in Arlington.

Perez has found new life with the Twins on a $4MM guarantee, though, and may be pitching his way into their 2020 plans. They’ll have to decide on a $7.5MM option after the season, but the way things are going, it doesn’t look as if Perez will end up back in free agency then. Perez’s rise has come thanks in part to a noticeable increase in velocity. His fastball and sinker each averaged around 93 mph last year, but they’re in the 95 range this season. While Perez’s walk rate of 4.08 per nine isn’t appealing, he has upped his K/9 from 5.48 to 8.69 in a one-year span. At the same time, hitters are making less contact off Perez, whose 10.9 swinging-strike percentage far outdoes the 7.8 mark he managed in Texas. When they have put the bat on the ball, the contact hasn’t been all threatening, evidenced in part by Perez’s paltry .283 xwOBA (compared to a .298 wOBA).

When Perez and the Twins’ other starters have handed off to the club’s bullpen, they’ve given the reins to relief corps which has made strides since 2018. The loss of the lights-out Ryan Pressly, whom the Twins traded to the Astros last summer, has stung. However, three more members of the Twins’ buy-low offseason bonanza – righties Ryne Harper, Blake Parker and Mike Morin – have come through to help ease the pain of Pressly’s loss.

Harper was already in the organization last season, but he spent it in the minors and wasn’t a lock to stick around this year. The Twins re-signed him to a minor league deal, however, and have since seen his emerge as a trustworthy piece of their bullpen. The 30-year-old Harper, who hadn’t even pitched in the majors prior to 2019, leads Twins relievers in innings (22, tied with Taylor Rogers) and has pitched to a stingy 1.64 ERA/2.57 FIP with 8.18 K/9 and 2.05 BB/9. Granted, regression for the soft-tossing Harper is likely on the way – it’ll be hard to maintain a .220 batting average on balls in play and an 85.2 percent stand rate, and perhaps even tougher for a fly ball-heavy hurler to continue limiting home runs. Nevertheless, one can’t quibble with the unexpected production he has given Minnesota to this stage.

The 33-year-old Parker has been similarly effective through 17 1/3 innings, having registered a 1.04 ERA in an effort to prove the Angels were wrong in non-tendering him last November. Parker isn’t going to keep this up, as his .190 BABIP, 96.2 percent strand rate, uninspiring strikeout and walk rates (7.27 K/9, 3.63 BB/9), and FIP (3.63) indicate. No matter, the groundball-heavy Parker undoubtedly looks worthy of Minnesota’s $3.2MM investment.

The team’s paying even less to Morin, who signed a minors deal in December after struggling with the Angels, Royals and Mariners in previous years. Since the Twins promoted Morin, 28, to the majors May 3, he has worked 9 1/3 innings of one-run ball without issuing a walk.

Roughly a third of the way through the season, Minnesota has been a juggernaut. Whether the Twins will continue to fare this well is up for debate, though it’s hard to envision a team with this much talent nosediving out of the race. Regardless of whether you believe the Twins are for real, though, it’s fair to say a good portion of their success has come thanks to the shrewd, low-risk offseason moves Falvey and Levine made.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The Twin Gems Of The Spring Extensions

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The dizzying run of extensions this spring drew quite a lot of attention. Several contracts were pointed to as being notably team friendly. Others were of obvious importance because they involved superstars entering walk years.

The sheer volume of transactions tended to obscure the fine details of each particular decision. And several of the extensions were all but buried in the news. When the Twins set up the mics to announce extensions for Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler, the full rush of deals hadn’t yet occurred. But the moves came at the same time that star hurlers Aaron Nola and Luis Severino were signing on the dotted line, drawing much of the attention away from a Minnesota club that was coming off of a middling 2018 season and hadn’t been quite as bold as might have been anticipated in free agency. And the flood of later signings ensured that the Twins’ deals would receive relatively little attention.

Frankly, given the costs involved, those signings did not represent an especially monumental moment for the franchise. The Joe Mauer contract, this was not. The Twins did not strike deals with top young starter Jose Berrios or high-end outfielder Eddie Rosario, both of whom would likely have commanded bigger dollars. Better-known former top prospects Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano weren’t really in position for extensions after rough seasons.

So, did we sleep on the Twins? From a team perspective, the roster upside was obvious, but nobody foresaw a 36-17 start to the year and a ten-game lead over the sagging Indians. And what of the extensions they signed? Any sober examination of the Polanco and Kepler contracts at the time of signing would have noted the potential upside but settled on relatively modest expectations. With a third of the season in the books, both deals look like slam dunks.

Let’s look first at Polanco. When the Twins promised him $25.75MM over five years, they were obviously quite comfortable with the risks and had expectations of excess value. But it’s hard to imagine they anticipated the sort of monster production they’ve received from the 25-year-old shortstop.

When MLBTR’s Steve Adams pointed to Jose Ramirez as a comp, he was thinking primarily of the latter’s contract — not his ensuing breakout. As it turns out, Polanco has followed Ramirez in converting contact ability into power.

This can’t be called a total surprise. As Adams wrote in assessing the Polanco deal, “if he can tap into a bit more power, there’s perhaps room to take his game to another offensive level.” Certainly, the Twins felt there was something more in the tank after a strong but hardly elite showing in 2018. The stated expectation was that the “best is yet to come” and that Polanco would “continue to develop and grow.”

But that was all projection and feel-good press conference talk. Did anyone really think Polanco would turn on the jets in this manner? He’s now slashing .332/.404/.584 with nine home runs in 228 plate appearances. Better yet, he has boosted his walk rate up to 10.5% and hasn’t even needed to add swing and miss (14.9% strikeout rate) to boost his pop. There’s likely a bit of regression in store, with a .363 BABIP and decent spread in Statcast results/expectations (.418 wOBA vs. .382 xwOBA). But the arrow is obviously pointed upward.

It’s easy to see how the contract could become the sort of bargain that helps fuel a lengthy contention window. One need only look at Ramirez. The Twins had ample control over Polanco already, as he was only a 2+ service-class, non-Super Two player. (He’d have had more but for an ill-advised PED suspension.) Because they made the deal before arbitration and in advance of a true breakout, the Twins can control Polanco through the 2025 season for a total cost of just $47MM, with the final two seasons coming via option ($10.5MM/$1MM buyout, $12.5MM/$750K buyout).

Things are looking quite nice on the Kepler side of things as well. He inked a five-year, $35MM deal. The calculus was different from the get-go in his case, though the decision to make the deal was also driven by a belief that he was primed to improve. Kepler had already reached arbitration as a Super Two, agreeing to a $3.125MM salary with the organization earlier in the winter. With three more arb trips to build from that baseline, and a track record of solid home run production, Kepler was able to command a higher payday.

In some respects, this was the riskier deal for the team. True, he had shown plenty of skill: the 26-year-old had already cracked twenty long balls, turned in three seasons of .180+ isolated power, and made great strides in his plate discipline in 2018 (11.6% walk rate vs. 15.7% strikeout rate). He’s also regarded as a quality defensive outfielder. At the same time, it took a bit of a leap of faith to entrust this kind of cash in a corner outfielder that hadn’t yet turned in a full season of league-average production by measure of wRC+.

So far, so good. Kepler has already launched a dozen long balls in 211 plate appearances. He’s maintaining that strong K/BB blend. And he’s up to a .281 batting average on a .272 batting average on balls in play — a reversal of some poor fortune from 2018 (.224 batting average, .236 BABIP). Statcast credits him with more hard contact (44.5%) and a loftier launch angle (17.2 degrees) than ever before.

Kepler’s early showing surely makes the Twins feel even better about their commitment than they did at the time. Beyond the $35MM guaranteed, the Twins have another year of control at just $10MM ($1MM buyout).

Will Polanco and Kepler keep this up for the long haul? Or even the duration of the present season? That’s hard to say. A fair but conservative estimate would anticipate some regression. But it’d also recognize a very real increase in the present and anticipated future on-field value of these players.

While these contracts largely fell through the cracks at the time they were struck, they now look to be among the best buys of the spring. The team deserves credit for rightly identifying these targets. But it’s also a credit to Polanco and Kepler. They accepted reasonably fair deals, based upon their prior track records, then set to work turning those contracts into potential bargains. As for the Twins organization, these deals didn’t change the near-term complexion of the roster in the least. But they sure do help brighten the long-term outlook.

Understanding The New Trade Deadline Rules

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Remember when the trade deadline meant something? You don’t have to go back to poodle skirts or bell bottoms or even neon and Zubaz. It wasn’t long ago at all that the end of July meant the end of significant dealing.

August trades have always been a thing, but they were mostly of much lesser significance. Sure, there was that one mind-boggling blockbuster, but that was mostly the exception that proved the rule. Since mankind began keeping track of balls and strikes, no self-respecting contending ballclub would wait for August to make a needed improvement.

A funny thing happened in recent years, however. As teams became more universally value-conscious, and increasingly recognized the importance of maximizing information before making commitments, they began to view the August trade period as a viable path to roster enhancement. (Click here if you fancy a trip down memory lane or if you aren’t familiar with how things used to work.) There was something of a snowball effect. Clear buyers felt less pressure to reach for a deal knowing they could still work something out for a high-priced veteran. Teams that sat on the fence at the end of July could hold pat (or even make a few additions) knowing that there’d be demand for their pricier assets if things fell apart over the ensuing month. One realization fed the other.

Heck, the 2017 August trade deadline was as exciting as its July counterpart. After the Dodgers’ acquisition of Yu Darvish was reported after the deadline had passed on July 31st, the Astros pulled off another last-minute stunner by acquiring Justin Verlander in a swap that didn’t hit the wire until the early morning hours of September 1st. (It was all very confusing and exhilirating. Maybe you just had to be there.) Last year’s August trade period wasn’t quite as momentous but was still filled with notable transactions.

That development obviously caught the attention of some folks in both the league and union offices. For the league, there was likely some concern that the extra month of trade activity allowed too many teams to exit the postseason race, sapping the game of intrigue. From the players’ perspective, the increasing viability of later-in-time mid-season improvements theoretically reduced the demand for teams to make offseason investments. All involved surely recognized that the odd rules regime was simply a messy and rather arbitrary system.

Whatever the precise reasons, we are now in the Unitary Trade Deadline Era. Which … well, it seems self-explanatory. And in large part it is. But the precise mechanism by which it works, and just what it means, isn’t widely appreciated.

When the One True Trade Deadline was announced, it was stated flatly that trades simply couldn’t be made after the deadline (July 31st at 4pm EST in most years). In actuality, there was a tweak made to The Official Professional Baseball Rules Book. If you would please take out your copy and flip to page 71 … We’re looking at Rule 9 (Assignment of Player Contracts).

[Side note: Have you ever wondered why one team can trade a player to another? Your employer can’t trade you. Aha, there it is, first sentence in the rule: “A Club may assign to another Club an existing contract with a player.” It’s collectively bargained.]

Well, Rule 9 doesn’t read quite like it used to. Scroll on down to 9(b)(3) and you will see a “closed period” that limits the general rule permitting trades:

No Major League Uniform Player’s Contract (including for outrighted players) shall be traded to another Major League Club during the period commencing 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time on July 31 (the “Major League Trade Deadline”) and ending upon the day following the day that the last game of the World Series starts.

So, MLB contracts simply cannot be dealt between the deadline and the end of the World Series. The rule not only squashes late-season trade possibilities, but prevents teams from getting a head start on offseason work during the postseason.

Notice that the rule specifically forbids deals involving MLB contracts attached to players that aren’t currently on the 40-man roster by virtue of having been outrighted. (E.g. Rusney Castillo, Yasmany Tomas.) That cuts off an obvious possible loophole, since teams would otherwise be able to send under-water contracts through outright waivers and then strike deals in which they absorbed some of the remaining obligation. Essentially, without that proviso, the old revocable waiver trade period would have been converted to an irrevocable waiver trade period. Instead, high-priced veterans whose contracts are too expensive to be claimed — say, increasingly interesting Royals hurler Ian Kennedy — will have to be dealt before the trade deadline or in the offseason.

But what about Kennedy and his ilk? Can they still move during the month of August? The answer is yes. Rule 9(b)(3) specifically refers to trades. When a club seeks waivers to assign a player outright to the minor leagues, all other teams have an opportunity to file a claim requesting assignment of the contract. That’s all governed by Rule 10, which does not prohibit movement via claims after the trade deadline. Of course, placing a claim means taking on all remaining obligations under the contract.

There is one clear way in which teams can still acquire reinforcements in the event that a desperate need arises: dealing for players that are still playing on minors contracts. Rule 9(b)(4) sets forth a no-trade period for such players and says nothing about the trade deadline. There isn’t any language expressly stating that minor-league contracts can be moved in August, but the legal interpretation maxim expressio unius est exclusio alterius suggests that’s the intended result. That’s not the most promising source of talent for a contender — top prospects won’t likely be dealt under these circumstances and otherwise the talent level just won’t be elite — but this could well provide an avenue for necessary fill-in pieces.

Are there any other exceptions or ways around the rule? No obvious loopholes appear on the face of the rules, but it’s possible to imagine crafty handshake agreements. Suppose an overpriced veteran is placed on waivers and — surprise, surprise — gets claimed. Then, at a later point (later in August? in the offseason?) an imbalanced trade could be struck between the two teams involved in the claim to help offset the excess financial obligations taken on by the contender.

Would that pass muster? Determined and truly sly operators might be able to pull something off, but it may not be worth the risk. The drafters of the rules were well aware that evasion might be attempted. Rather than trying to foresee every particular type of maneuver, they added a general proviso in Rule 9(b)(5):

“The Commissioner’s Office will prohibit any transaction (or series of transactions) that, in the judgment of the Commissioner’s Office, appears (or appear) designed to circumvent the prohibitions of Rule 9(b).”

Distilled to its essence, this is the new state of affairs:

Between the trade deadline and end of the World Series, MLB players cannot be traded but may be claimed off waivers just like the rest of the year. Players on minor-league contracts can be traded as normal, but MLB contracts that have passed through outright waivers cannot be swapped. The commissioner is empowered to strike down any creative attempts to bypass the rules.

10 Low-Cost MLB Deals Paying Dividends

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We’ve spent some time looking at one-year MLB deals recently, with separate posts checking in on the highest-paid position players, starters, and relievers. More often than not, the results have been underwhelming for those players. There’s still time for turnarounds, but we’re already one quarter of the way through the full duration of those contracts.

Scan a bit further down the list in terms of dollars promised, however, and you’ll find some more promising outcomes. Indeed, quite a few players earning relative peanuts on one-year MLB contracts are turning in downright excellent results. (Note: we’re talking about deals that were guaranteed at the time of signing, not minor-league contracts.)

Here are the ten most impressive, ordered from most to least expensive:

Avisail Garcia, Rays, $3.5MM: An under-the-radar aspect of the Rays strong opening to the season has been the bargain-basement score of Garcia, who has stung the ball early on. He’s humming along at a .283/.343/.507 clip with eight long balls and three steals through 166 plate appearances. Contact quality will probably always be king for Garcia, who isn’t especially strikeout prone but doesn’t walk much. What’s he doing differently? I’m not exactly sure, but he’s barreling the baseball far more (14.3%) than ever before and is underperforming against Statcast’s expectations (.360 wOBA vs. .385 xwOBA).

Jonathan Lucroy, Angels, $3.35MM: The venerable backstop had fallen on hard times over the past two seasons. It was most noticeable at the plate, where the long-productive hitter fell into a deep hole, but the former pitch-framing posterboy also stopped winning strikes for his pitchers. The bounceback has been a rare bright spot in Anaheim, as Lucroy is slashing .265/.326/.439 and once again earning strong marks for his receiving ability behind the dish.

Adam Jones, Diamondbacks, $3MM: The esteemed veteran was all but frozen out of the free agent market this winter until the D-Backs came along with a decent offer. Jones hasn’t exactly morphed into a star, but he’s providing strong offensive output in an everyday role. Through 202 plate appearances, he’s slashing .265/.323/.476 with nine dingers, which is a rather vintage performance at the dish. That sort of production played better back when Jones was capable of playing center, but it’s good value regardless for a player who’s also a plus in the clubhouse.

James McCann, White Sox, $2.5MM: Perhaps the biggest surprise on this list when you look only at the top-line numbers, the younger of the two catching McCanns has been utterly on fire to open the season. He’s slashing a heretofore unheard of .340/.381/.538 in 113 plate appearances. Yeah, yeah … it’s not full-time action. And the regression warning lights are flashing, with a .421 BABIP and -.061 x/wOBA imbalance. McCann is also not getting the ravest of reviews in the framing arena. Still, at this cost, there’s no cause whatsoever for complaint. Bonus: McCann is arb eligible this fall.

Jordan Lyles, Pirates, $2.05MM: Many Pirates fans rolled their eyes and scoffed at this signing, and not without reason. It’s nice to find great value, but was Lyles really a buy-low candidate or just a cheap fill-in piece for a team that should be spending more? He has been one of the most cost-efficient starters in baseball thus far, providing 45 2/3 frames of sub-2.00 ERA ball in eight starts. His peripherals (9.3 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 43.0% GB%, 0.79 HR/9) don’t scream “ace,” but they do suggest he has been quite strong thus far. There’s good reason to think that Lyles has finally found himself after so many missed opportunities, with the Bucs benefiting.

Brian McCann, Braves, $2MM: The original behind-the-dish McCann hasn’t been flashy but has delivered everything the Braves hoped for when they brought him back to town. He’s producing right at the league average offensively through 92 plate appearances, grinding out tough at-bats by walking nearly as often as he’s striking out. The grizzled veteran is obviously valued as much or more for his ability to work with pitchers and nurture a youthful clubhouse as he is for his on-field contributions. It seems fair to say this is working out quite nicely thus far.

Neil Walker, Marlins, $2MM: If you look back at Walker’s career numbers, his rough 2018 season stands out as an outlier. Typically a steady producer at the plate, Walker looked like much the same hitter as ever but suffered from an unseasonably low .257 batting average on balls in play. This year, the BABIP gods have repaid him with a .363 mark, and his output has risen to a strong .290/.371/.427 level. Walker is helping hold down the fort for now in Miami but seems like a rather likely mid-season trade piece, as he ought to be able to help out a contending team as a multi-position infielder.

Blake Parker, Twins, $1.8MM: The Angels would take a do-over on their non-tender decision, as Parker has turned in 16 1/3 innings of 1.10 ERA ball for a bargain rate of pay. True, he’s carrying just 6.6 K/9 with 3.9 BB/9, but his strong 56.1% groundball rate is a nice base to work from. There’s really no reason to think that Parker will keep up the immaculate results, as he’s highly unlikely to carry a .195 BABIP and 96.2% strand rate all year long. Still, he has saved eight games for the streaking Twins and now seems to be a key part of the bullpen picture for a surefire postseason team. Parker is also eligible to be tendered a contract through arbitration one more time this fall.

Tim Beckham, Mariners, $1.75MM: It was a crafty move for M’s GM Jerry Dipoto to double down on the buy-low middle infielders. After acquiring J.P. Crawford, he grabbed a seat-warmer/bounceback piece in Beckham. That combination spread the bets and boosted the upside potential. It has been a hit so far, with Crawford hitting well at Triple-A and Beckham showing big thus far in the majors. Through 171 plate appearances, the former first overall pick owns a .259/.316/.506 slash with nine long balls. Regression may well be in store — Beckham is striking out at a 29.2% clip and hasn’t sustained prior breakouts — but it’s nice to have the production for the time being and he could still be flipped via trade or tendered for 2020.

Brett Anderson, Athletics, $1.5MM: You have to tip your cap to Anderson, who’s still pushing to get to the mound despite a lengthy run of injury woes. He has been able to stay active this year, turning in ten starts and 54 1/3 badly needed innings for the pitching-starved A’s, who brought him back on a late-breaking deal. Anderson isn’t exactly shoving, with a 4.14 ERA and just 4.6 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 along with a sturdy 51.9% groundball rate, but thus far he’s tamping down the long balls and doing just enough to succeed. Not convinced of the value? Just take a look at the return other teams have received on higher-priced, one-year starters.

Ian Kennedy, The Reliever, Is Interesting

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When the Royals moved Ian Kennedy to the bullpen, it seemed to mark a rock-bottom moment for the right-hander’s value. Kennedy was owed a total of $33MM from 2019-20 after a two-year stretch in which he logged a 5.06 ERA and 5.17 FIP. He was being taken out of a rebuilding team’s rotation in favor of Homer Bailey, another veteran whose underperforming contract was being paid off by another team.

Fast forward a couple of months, and not much has gone right with the Royals’ pitching staff, but the Kennedy bullpen experiment has been nothing short of excellent. While teams still won’t be interested in his contract, they may have interest in acquiring Kennedy if the Royals are willing to pay down some of the salary.

It’s only 19 2/3 innings, but Kennedy has a 3.20 ERA with a 23-to-2 K/BB ratio and a 47 percent ground-ball rate out of the bullpen. His average fastball has jumped from 91.9 mph to 93.4 mph now that he’s working in short stints. Perhaps there’s reason to be skeptical of the strikeout rate given a lack of swinging strikes, but Kennedy is also among the league leaders in weak contact induced. Opponents are averaging just 84.7 mph in terms of exit velocity against him, and Statcast pegs his .266 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) in the 86th percentile league-wide.

Kennedy has dropped his changeup entirely in favor of a four-seam/curveball/cutter arsenal that has proven to be more effective than his prior pitch mix. While his curve has never been a source of many whiffs, Kennedy is suddenly sporting a 17.7 percent swinging-strike rate on the pitch — up substantially from the roughly nine percent mark he posted in the three prior seasons. He’s altered his release point on his curve and picked up more movement than he’s seen in recent seasons, which has not only led to misses but also quite a few more ground-balls (55 percent). Kennedy’s curve hasn’t generated great results yet (both the homers hit against him this season have come on the pitch) but the .444 average on balls in play opponents have recorded against that offering figures to regress.

Prior to Opening Day, Kennedy would’ve been the type of arm one would expect to receive a minor league contract and a Spring Training invite in a free-agent setting, but he now looks more like a reliever who’d command a reasonably significant big league deal. If he can sustain this output or even improve upon it, he could even be the type of pitcher who’d command a two-year pact in a theoretical open market. He doesn’t have the track record for clubs to look at him as a David Robertson/Andrew Miller type that’d make $11-12MM per year, but we’ve seen quite a few two-year deals in the $4-7MM annual salary range in recent offseasons — even for pitchers who don’t have lengthy track records (e.g. Jesse Chavez, Brandon Kintzler, Anthony Swarzak).

It’s suddenly not crazy to think that in a couple months’ time, teams could view Kennedy as reliever worth paying $5-7MM per season. Some teams may already be starting to think that way. If the Royals were willing to pay down $10-11MM of next season’s $16.5MM salary (and the prorated equivalent of that sum for the remainder of the 2019 campaign), Kennedy could suddenly be movable. Being movable is different than having much in the way of positive trade value, but the very fact that it appears possible is a nice, somewhat unexpected development for Kansas City.

And if the Royals were willing to pay down even more of that sum, perhaps they could pry a decent return out of the whole deal. No team is going to give up anything of value just for the right to pay Kennedy at what could be the high end of his market value, no matter how well he throws between now and July 31. If the Royals pay him down to the point where he’s only owed a couple million dollars in 2019 and 2020, though, surplus value could be created.

There has already been a bit of chatter involving Kennedy, though there’s no indication of actual trade talks. Recent suggestions of some type of deal involving Dominic Smith don’t make any sense to me, even if Smith is blocked by Pete Alonso in New York. But if Kennedy can sustain his bullpen renaissance — and the numbers suggest that he can — then the Royals can score some salary relief and maybe even a mid-range prospect or two this summer. This outcome isn’t what they were anticipating when they signed Kennedy, but it’s about as good as they could’ve hoped for when they moved him to the ’pen.

11 Readily Available Relievers For Teams Needing Bullpen Help

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It’s true every season that clubs need bullpen help, but the desperation for quality relief help seems more palpable this season than in years past. Perhaps it’s because one of the best closers in baseball history is still sitting unsigned in late May, which only leads to more fan outcry for bullpen help and more of a spotlight to be placed on teams that are struggling in this regard.

I got more than a few questions about what’s out there in terms of readily available bullpen help in yesterday’s MLBTR chat. While the general answer can be snarkily summed up in brief fashion (“not much!“), it’s also true that the landscape of available arms is in a constant state of change as players opt out of deals, or are designated for assignment/released. So while we all know that Craig Kimbrel is available for the highest bidder, here’s a look at a handful of newly available arms that have hit the market in the past 10 days or so.

Free Agents (or soon-to-be free agents):

Luke Gregerson (released by Cardinals)

  • Why he was cut loose: Hamstring and shoulder injuries limited Gregerson to just 18 1/3 innings dating back to Opening Day 2018, and he hasn’t been effective in that time. Gregerson posted a 7.36 ERA with a 14-to-7 K/BB ratio and 25 hits allowed (including a pair of homers) in parts of two seasons with the Cards, and his fastball/sinker combo dipped to 86.4 mph and 87.4 mph, respectively, in this year’s tiny sample.
  • Why he could hold appeal: Prior to signing with the Cards, Gregerson was a bullpen workhorse. From 2009-17 he averaged 69 appearances and 67 innings per season, logging a collective 3.02 ERA with 9.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and a 50.9 percent ground-ball rate. That grounder rate topped 60 percent in both 2015 and 2016, and he averaged better than 10 strikeouts per nine innings in 2016-17 with Houston.

Addison Reed (released by Twins)

  • Why he was cut loose: Reed’s time with the Twins started well, but his velocity dipped early last summer and he landed on the shelf with triceps soreness and an elbow impingement. A sprained thumb in his non-pitching hand has kept him on the shelf all season to date, and he was reportedly throwing 88-89 mph in recent rehab outings. For context, his average heater in 2017 was 92.3 mph. Reed logged a 4.50 ERA in 56 innings last season, but his ERA over his final 30 games with Minnesota was 6.44. He allowed four homers and a total of eight runs in five Triple-A rehab innings this year.
  • Why he could hold appeal: As with Gregerson, Reed’s appeal is all in his track record. He had a career 3.40 ERA with 9.5 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 at the time he signed with the Twins, including a superb 2015-17 run in which he notched a 2.66 ERA with 218 strikeouts against just 34 unintentional walks in 209 2/3 innings. He won’t turn 30 until December, so unlike the other free agents listed here, he still has age on his side. One year ago, Reed had a 2.49 ERA and 27-to-7 K/BB ratio in 25 1/3 innings with the Twins.

Carlos Torres

  • Why he was cut loose: Torres opted out of a minor league deal after a solid showing in Triple-A, hopeful of finding an easier path to the Majors than he faced in San Diego.
  • Why he could hold appeal: Torres pitched to a 2.49 ERA with a 23-to-10 K/BB ratio and a 50.7 percent ground-ball rate with Triple-A El Paso to open the season. From 2012-17, he recorded  a 3.73 ERA with 7.9 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in a total of 449 innings between the Rockies, Mets and Brewers. During that time, he averaged 75 innings per season. Torres is 36 and struggled in a brief 9 2/3 innings with the Nats last year, though he was very effective for their Triple-A team.

Jonny Venters

  • Why he was cut loose: Venters’ 2018 comeback was a feelgood story, but he was rocked for nine runs on nine hits and eight walks in 4 2/3 innings with the Braves this season. Atlanta’s bullpen has been a revolving door this season, and keeping the struggling Venters aboard limited the club’s flexibility.
  • Why he could hold appeal: Venters’ sinker still checked in at a healthy average of 93.6 mph in 2019, and he’s a year removed from holding left-handed opponents to a comically bad .133/.200/.200 batting line through 66 plate appearances. Even through this season’s struggles, his grounder rate checked in at 50 percent, and it was nearly 70 percent last year.

Dan Jennings (opted for free agency after being DFA’ed by Nationals)

  • Why he was cut loose: Jennings struggled in Spring Training with the Angels and didn’t fare any better with the Nats. He walked seven batters (two intentional), hit another and threw a wild pitch in his 4 2/3 innings with Washington. As with the Braves and Mariners, the Nationals’ bullpen has been rife with turnover, and it seems that nearly every member of those clubs’ relief units is on a short leash.
  • Why he could hold appeal: In parts of seven MLB seasons prior to 2019, Jennings never logged an ERA of 4.00 or higher, and he was solid with the Brewers in 2018 (3.22 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 6.3 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 56.1 percent ground-ball rate). He’s not a prolific strikeout arm but has typically been a ground-ball machine who can hold his own against lefties and righties alike (2018 struggles against righties notwithstanding). His velocity held steady in 2019 as well.

DFA Limbo:

Ryan Garton (DFA by Mariners)

  • Why he was cut loose: The Mariners have used 22 different relievers already in 2019. (Heck, four of them are listed in this section!) Garton’s selection to the big league roster, like many of the names being cycled through the Seattle ’pen, seemed almost destined to be short. He allowed four runs in three innings and was designated when the Mariners signed Anthony Bass.
  • Why he could hold appeal: Garton has pitched reasonably well in Triple-A over the past two seasons, though his FIP is roughly a full run higher than the 3.28 ERA. Still, Garton has fanned 71 hitters in 68 2/3 Triple-A frames in that time. He walked too many in 2018, but he has some experience, some Triple-A success and a minor league option remaining. There’s a solid chance Garton clears waivers, but less intriguing guys have been claimed in the past.

Neil Ramirez (DFA by Indians)

  • Why he was cut loose: Surrendering five home runs and issuing nine walks in 16 1/3 innings isn’t a great way to hold onto a roster spot, and Ramirez is out of minor league options, which put the Indians in a particularly tough spot. He’s never enjoyed consistent success at the MLB level, but teams continue to be intrigued by his raw ability.
  • Why he could hold appeal: The fact that six teams have given Ramirez a big league look as he’s struggled to a 5.70 ERA in 113 2/3 innings over the past four seasons speaks both to his potential upside and his frustrating level of inconsistency. Ramirez averages 95 mph on his heater and has turned in a 15 percent swinging-strike rate across the past two seasons. His fastball spin is elite, and his curveball spin isn’t far behind. If anyone could coax some consistency out of him, he’d be controlled through 2020.

Yefry Ramirez (DFA by Orioles)

  • Why he was cut loose: Ramirez has been more of a starter than a reliever, but what the heck, let’s add him here anyway. The 25-year-old has an ERA north of 6.00 and 5.4 BB/9 over the past two seasons in the Majors, but it’s frankly still a bit surprising to see the Orioles cut him loose not 24 hours after their manager lamented a lack of rotation depth. The front office has apparently seen enough of Ramirez, though.
  • Why he could hold appeal: Ramirez has a 3.40 ERA and a 96-to-31 K/BB ratio in 90 Triple-A innings. He averaged 93.2 mph on his fastball and has a 10.7 percent swinging-strike rate in addition to 73 punchouts in 75 2/3 innings working primarily as a starter in the Majors. It’d be interesting to see what Ramirez could do in shorter stints; in 19 career relief frames, opponents have batted .206/.320/.270 against him. His slider was an effective pitch for him in 2018 while his changeup has gotten good results in 2019. He’s 25 years old and has a minor league option remaining.

Zac Rosscup (DFA by Mariners)

  • Why he was cut loose: Rosscup allowed 14 walks in 14 innings of work as the Mariners’ apparent plan to dramatically increase his slider usage — he ranks fifth among MLB pitchers in slider percentage (min. 10 IP) — didn’t pay off as hoped. He’s out of minor league options, so the Mariners had no way to send him down to try to rediscover last year’s solid control (3.2 BB/9).
  • Why he could hold appeal: In his last 25 1/3 big league innings, Rosscup has racked up 40 strikeouts with an 18.3 percent swinging-strike rate and a 32.6 percent opponents’ chase rate. He falls behind hitters far too often. His slider hasn’t been as effective this season, but in 2018 he threw the pitch 101 times and generated 30 swinging strikes. He’s controllable through 2021.

Nick Rumbelow (DFA by Mariners)

  • Why he was cut loose: Rumbelow has been injured more than he’s been healthy over the past few seasons, and while he’s recovered from 2015 Tommy John surgery and a 2018 neck injury now, the results weren’t there for him in Triple-A. He’s allowed 16 earned runs on 25 hits and 10 walks with 11 strikeouts in 15 2/3 innings.
  • Why he could hold appeal: Rumbelow will sit 93-94 mph with his fastball and, prior to 2019, had experienced a good bit of success when healthy enough to take the ball in Triple-A. He carried a 2.95 ERA and a 131-to-34 K/BB ratio in 116 career Triple-A innings into the season.

Mike Wright (DFA by Mariners)

  • Why he was cut loose: Wright has had ample big league time in each of the past four big league seasons but has an ERA north of 6.00 to show for it. The Mariners traded a struggling low-level infielder to acquire him, hoping they could help him tap into his potential, but Wright lasted only 11 innings (and 11 earned runs) before being designated for assignment. Like many DFA casualties, he’s out of minor league options.
  • Why he could hold appeal: Both the Orioles and Mariners have seen fit to give Wright a shot at the MLB level, perhaps in part because he’s been a solid starter through nearly 400 innings (70 starts, one relief appearance) of Triple-A ball in his professional career.

It’s easy to be dismissive of the majority of the names on any list like this, but that was also the case when the likes of Kirby Yates and Brad Hand were cut loose a few years ago. Teams are constantly mining the scrap heap, and even the smallest pickup can prove to be consequential down the line.

12 Corner Outfield Trade Targets For The Indians

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The Indians had a 94.6% chance of making the playoffs prior to the season, according to FanGraphs.  The Twins looked like an 85-win team, the Indians projected at 97, and the other 60% of the division is rebuilding.  The Twins, however, have flipped the script with a 32-16 start through Tuesday’s games.  They hold a 6.5 game lead over Cleveland.  But a Wild Card spot is a viable option for the Indians as well, and they still hold a 54.3% shot at the postseason.

The Indians have averaged just 3.96 runs per game, 12th in the AL and nestled between non-contenders.  After the club designated Carlos Gonzalez for assignment today, Zack Meisel of The Athletic wrote, “The state of the Indians’ lineup suggests a player can be hitting cleanup one day and be unemployed the next.”  Indeed, CarGo had started eight of the Indians’ last ten games, typically as the left fielder.

Gonzalez will be replaced internally for the foreseeable future, with 24-year-old rookie Oscar Mercado in line for an extended look.  The speedy Mercado, a Cardinals second round draft pick out of high school as a shortstop in 2013, was quietly acquired at last year’s trade deadline.  Mercado returned to the edge of the prospect radar after 2017, a season in which he blossomed playing center field every day and had his best offensive year.  Even at that point, though, he profiled as an extra outfielder in the Majors.  Mercado’s bat wasn’t terribly impressive at Triple-A in 2018, but he tweaked his swing in the offseason, raked in spring training, and hammered the ball in 30 games at Triple-A.  He’s interesting enough to merit regular playing time for the next couple of months, and his right-handed bat could be just what the Indians need in left field.  The Indians have veteran center fielder Leonys Martin likely to be pushed by former first rounder Bradley Zimmer in the near future, while Jordan Luplow has settled in as the team’s right fielder and has the minor league track record to stick.

We’ll know much more about this arrangement by mid-July, and it’s possible Mercado and/or Luplow won’t continue hitting at the Major League level.  While the Indians have some other paths to improving their offense, this post will explore corner outfield trade targets they may consider if internal options struggle.

Current Left Fielders

  • Domingo Santana, Mariners (controllable through 2021) – Santana has dropped off after a fast start, and the Mariners look less like a contender.  Still, he was a nice find for the club and I don’t think they’ll be eager to move him.
  • Alex Gordon, Royals (2019) – Given Gordon’s offensive renaissance, he would be a nifty veteran rental for Cleveland.  However, he has 10-and-5 rights and made it clear he doesn’t want to leave Kansas City.  Plus, Gordon is earning $20MM this year and would get a $4MM assignment bonus upon a trade.
  • Clint Frazier, Yankees (2023) – Frazier, the Indians’ first-round pick in 2013, was a key piece along with Justus Sheffield in Cleveland’s 2016 deadline deal for Andrew Miller.  Frazier has filled in admirably for the Yankees this year after their litany of injuries, but the club may not have much playing time for him once Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton return.  He could become trade bait for New York, and it would be fascinating if he were to return to the organization that drafted him.  Still, the Yankees may be reluctant to help a possible playoff opponent, and they can always send Frazier to Triple-A if they truly cannot find at-bats for him.
  • Adam Duvall, Braves (2021) – The Braves acquired Duvall from the Reds last summer and despite tendering him a contract in the offseason, did not put him on the Opening Day roster.  Duvall showed the ability to serve as a low on-base, high power left fielder with the Reds from 2016-17, and it wouldn’t take much for the Indians to add him.  The 30-year-old has mashed 15 home runs in 188 Triple-A plate appearances so far this year.
  • Yasmany Tomas, Diamondbacks (2020) – The Diamondbacks signed Tomas out of Cuba in December 2014 to a six-year, $68.5MM deal.  Though he smacked 31 home runs in his sophomore season, the D’Backs were never able to find a good home for him defensively.  Tomas hasn’t seen Major League time since 2017, but he’s hit 14 home runs in 178 plate appearances at Triple-A this year.  Jake Bauers has served as the Indians’ primary DH of late, but he could slide into left field if the team were to acquire a player like Tomas.  The Diamondbacks would have to pick up the vast majority of Tomas’ contract to move him.

Current Right Fielders

  • Yasiel Puig, Reds (2019) – Puig would be an excellent rental for the Indians, except for the fact that he hasn’t hit at all this year.  He’s also earning $9.7MM.  If Puig does return to form as an above average bat over the next few months, I could see him on the Indians’ radar.
  • Nicholas Castellanos, Tigers (2019) – Castellanos has been about league average with the bat this year after a superb 130 wRC+ season in 2018.  Like Puig, he’s headed for free agency after the season and is earning about $10MM.  Castellanos isn’t much of a defender, but assuming the Tigers don’t have any hang-ups about trading a rental within the division, he’s a great fit for Cleveland.
  • Adam Eaton, Nationals (2021) – Eaton is less than ideal as a left-handed hitter, but despite his slow start he could be a useful addition for the Indians.
  • Mitch Haniger, Mariners (2022) – Haniger would be a major prize for a team like the Indians, and he bats right-handed to boot, but Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto would seek a king’s ransom if he even considers a trade.  Seattle won’t be in any rush to move Haniger.
  • Trey Mancini, Orioles (2022) – Mancini is one of very few bright spots on the Orioles this year, and trading the 27-year-old might not sit well with some fans, but it could be an avenue for Orioles executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias to bolster his prospect stash.  Like Haniger, he’d be an attractive, controllable fit for the Indians.
  • Jorge Soler, Royals (2021) – Soler has never managed to play a full season in the Majors, but he’s been healthy and has hit for power this year.  I’m guessing the Royals are not eager to deal him currently.
  • Tyler O’Neill, Cardinals (2024) – O’Neill is currently playing at Triple-A, though he’s been out since Saturday with an undisclosed injury.  The 23-year-old has massive power from the right side and plus defense in the corners, though he’s struck out a ton in his 181 big league plate appearances.  The Cardinals have already relegated a starting-caliber player to the bench in Harrison Bader, so O’Neill has an even tougher path to playing time.  Longer-term, Marcell Ozuna is slated for free agency after the season and Jose Martinez could land elsewhere, so O’Neill may yet be part of the Cardinals’ future.  He’s still a player about which the Indians could inquire.

It’s also worth considering that several teams that are contending now may not be contending in a few months.  The Rangers, Diamondbacks, Pirates, Padres, and Athletics have some interesting corner outfield bats that might become considerations for the Indians.  I also entertained the possibility of including the Cubs’ Ian Happ on this list, though the 24-year-old has struggled in 42 Triple-A games.

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