Poll: Clayton Kershaw’s Future
With Los Angeles staring at a 3-1 deficit against Boston in the World Series, not only will the Dodgers’ season end if they lose Game 5 on Sunday, but it could also mark left-hander Clayton Kershaw‘s final outing with the club. The three-time National League Cy Young Award winner will take the ball hoping to keep the Dodgers’ season alive, but if the team loses, he’ll face questions about his future immediately after the game.
While Kershaw’s contract – the franchise-record seven-year, $215MM extension he signed in 2014 – includes another two guaranteed seasons and $65MM, it also features an opt-out clause he could trigger in the coming days. Should he take advantage of that, the 30-year-old would easily become the most accomplished pitcher without a deal for 2019.
However, in the event Kershaw reaches free agency, he would be doing so off three straight injury-shortened seasons, during which he averaged 162 innings per year. That’s a far cry from the 215-inning mean he established from 2010-15. This past regular season, Kershaw spun 161 1/3 frames of high-quality work, logging a 2.73 ERA/3.19 FIP, though there were some alarming signs along the way.
Although just about every starter would be thrilled with the production Kershaw has offered this year, his regular-season ERA was his highest since 2010, while he has only managed a worse FIP once (as a rookie in 2008). Moreover, Kershaw has battled through a decline in velocity, perhaps thanks in part to injuries. Kershaw went to the disabled list one time each for back problems – which have been a significant issue for him in recent seasons – and biceps tendinitis.
Even though we know Kershaw is in fact mortal, he’s still in position to forgo the remaining $65MM on his contract. Expectations are that Kershaw will indeed vacate what’s left of the pact, at which point it would be up to the Dodgers and the seven-time All-Star’s reps at Excel Sports Management to find common ground. For what it’s worth, both Kershaw and the Dodgers have publicly expressed a reverence for one another.
“[Kershaw] should be a Dodger for life,” owner Mark Walter said in March.
There’s certainly a chance that will come to fruition. But it’s worth keeping in mind that, in spite of their deep pockets, the Dodgers haven’t handed out a single nine-figure guarantee since president Andrew Friedman and general manager Farhan Zaidi took the reins in October 2014. They may need to fork over that rich of a contract to keep Kershaw in the fold. As great as Kershaw has been, and as iconic as he is, that would mean splurging on a 30-something pitcher with upward of 2,200 major league innings under his belt (playoffs included) and a growing injury history.
While Kershaw is currently focused on helping spur a World Series comeback for the Dodgers, it’s clear he’ll end up as one of the game’s most fascinating storylines after the Fall Classic concludes. Either Kershaw will continue his remarkable career with the only franchise he has ever known, or the the future Hall of Famer will stun the baseball world by leaving the Dodgers behind in free agency. What do you expect to happen?
Will Clayton Kershaw be a Dodger in 2019?
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Yes 67% (14,372)
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No 33% (6,958)
Total votes: 21,330
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
2018-19 Market Snapshot: Starting Pitchers
This is the final installment in our Market Snapshot series. Let’s check in on the array of possibilities for teams looking at rotation improvements.
Teams In Need
There are few teams that won’t at least consider some kind of tweaks to their rotation mix in any given offseason. Some, though, stand out as worthy of particular attention.
A variety of contenders will be looking to get better and perhaps also boost depth. The Astros, Angels, Athletics, Yankees, Nationals, and Braves all have needs. It’s possible the Phillies, Cardinals, and Red Sox could look to improve, even if they could also might largely hold pat. We’ve heard plenty of suggestions that the Padres and Reds are serious about getting new rotation pieces in place.
The Brewers held off on any major improvements last winter but tried to add Yu Darvish, so could again seek arms. Similarly, the creative Rays have some money to spend and surely wouldn’t mind adding productive starters at a good value despite the successes of their non-traditional staff management. Though their anticipated competitiveness may be somewhat in doubt, it’d be unwise to count out clubs such as the Blue Jays, Twins, Pirates, Giants, Diamondbacks, and Rangers. Even clubs like the White Sox and Royals could at least go looking for depth, while serving as wild cards to do more.
Free Agents
Frontline: Clayton Kershaw is still the big name to watch, assuming he opts out as expected. While he won’t take home the kind of whopping deal that once seemed possible, he’ll still draw plenty of attention — if he doesn’t work something out with the Dodgers in advance. Patrick Corbin is coming off of a huge season at relatively youthful age and figures to be of keen interest. The somewhat older and generally more accomplished Dallas Keuchel is also in line for a big contract, but perhaps doesn’t have the earning upside of Corbin. Charlie Morton could ring up a big payday, though his own geographical and competitive preferences may lead him to feature as a nice value.
Mid-rotation: Nathan Eovaldi is arguably the most fascinating pitcher to watch, given his age, loud stuff, and recent success after a run of health issues. Another wild card could be coming from Japan in the form of southpaw Yusei Kikuchi, who may well be posted.
As they did on the trade market, J.A. Happ, Cole Hamels (if his option isn’t exercised), and Gio Gonzalez can offer quality veteran frames. Hyun-Jin Ryu has had major injury issues but has also been excellent when healthy. You could probably debate how to categorize Matt Harvey, Trevor Cahill, and Derek Holland, but we’ll keep them here since all have solid cases for multi-year commitments.
CC Sabathia can still get the job done, though he’ll likely go for another single-year pact. It’ll be interesting to see how the market treats Anibal Sanchez after his stunning bounceback year in Atlanta, but it’s hard to ignore his numbers.
Back-end: Wade Miley and Lance Lynn also had interesting seasons. The former had great results that aren’t fully backed by peripherals (at least, if you don’t believe he can sustain his home run suppression), while the latter was dinged for nearly 5 earned per nine on the year but put up some impressive peripherals after being traded to the Yankees.
Other pitchers that had at least reasonably productive 2018 seasons, but otherwise come with some less desirable features, include Brett Anderson, Clay Buchholz, Jeremy Hellickson, Edwin Jackson, Tyson Ross, and James Shields. Bounceback candidates include Drew Pomeranz, Ervin Santana, Jaime Garcia, Marco Estrada, Matt Moore, and Martin Perez, while Garrett Richards seems situated to ink a two-year deal while he finishes his Tommy John rehab.
Depth: Bartolo Colon, Doug Fister, Yovani Gallardo, Miguel Gonzalez, Jason Hammel, Drew Hutchison, Francisco Liriano, Jordan Lyles, Tommy Milone, Hector Santiago, Chris Tillman, Josh Tomlin
Trade Candidates
Top targets: Contenders will see how a new Mets front office feels about Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Zack Wheeler, with a feeding frenzy sure to ensue if they’re made available. It’s perhaps equally unlikely that the Giants will put Madison Bumgarner up for option, but he’d be a fascinating player to see the market value given his outstanding track record and more recent warning signs. It seems reasonable to anticipate that the Diamondbacks will market Zack Greinke, who’s awfully pricey but is now playing on a three-year term and is still very good.
Mid-rotation targets: We’ve already seen clear indication that the Yankees will try to find a taker for Sonny Gray after a rough campaign. Andrew Cashner (Orioles), Ivan Nova (Pirates) and Tanner Roark (Nationals) are other potential trade candidates who have of innings. None of these pitchers is cheap, but all are available on one-year commitments.
The Blue Jays would get plenty of interest if they decided to move on from Marcus Stroman, though it’s not clear that’ll happen. Likewise, Arizona hurlers Robbie Ray and Zach Godley would be of interest elsewhere. Other talented pitchers who have struggled recently include Dylan Bundy of the Orioles and Danny Duffy of the Royals.
Other pitchers could come available if teams like the Red Sox, Braves, and Phillies seek upgrades, though it’s hard to guess at the possibilities at this point.
Contract dumps: Ian Kennedy (Royals), Tyler Chatwood (Cubs), Jordan Zimmermann (Tigers), Alex Cobb (Orioles), Jeff Samardzija (Giants), Homer Bailey (Reds)
Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Angels
MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.
The Angels will focus on pitching this winter, as they look to get back into contention under the leadership of new manager Brad Ausmus.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Justin Upton, LF: $90MM through 2022
- Albert Pujols, 1B/DH: $87MM through 2021
- Mike Trout, CF: $66.5MM through 2020
- Andrelton Simmons, SS: $28MM through 2020
- Zack Cozart, IF: $25.333MM through 2020
- Kole Calhoun, RF: $11.5MM through 2019 (includes $1MM buyout of $14MM club option for 2020)
Arbitration Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Matt Shoemaker – $4.3MM
- Tyler Skaggs – $3.6MM
- Blake Parker – $3.1MM
- Andrew Heaney – $2.8MM
- JC Ramirez – $1.9MM
- Jose Alvarez – $1.7MM
- Cam Bedrosian – $1.7MM
- Nick Tropeano – $1.6MM
- Hansel Robles – $1.4MM
- Odrisamer Despaigne – $1.3MM
- Jefry Marte – $1.1MM
- Non-tender candidates: Despaigne, Marte, Ramirez
Free Agents
[Los Angeles Angels Depth Chart | Los Angeles Angels Payroll Information]
Mike Scioscia’s 19-year run as the Angels’ manager officially ended after the team’s last game, leaving the team with an immediate bit of business to handle. Speculation initially focused on Ausmus and Triple-A manager Eric Chavez, though the Halos reportedly considered up to 10 names for the job, including such popular managerial candidates as Brandon Hyde, Joe Espada, Rocco Baldelli, and Omar Vizquel.
In the end, the team stayed in-house by hiring Ausmus, giving the 49-year-old his second crack at running a Major League team. Ausmus posted a 314-332 record over four years as the Tigers’ manager from 2014-17, winning the AL Central in his first year in Detroit but ending his tenure on the sour note of a 64-98 season that prompted the Tigers to enter into a rebuild. Ausmus received some mixed reviews during his first managerial stint, though it didn’t stop him from being considered for several other openings — he interviewed with the Reds this month and with the Red Sox last season, and also received interest from the Mets and Phillies for their managerial vacancies in 2017.
Ironically, Ausmus now finds himself in a similar situation to the one he faced upon his initial hire with the Tigers. He’ll again be taking over a team with several veteran stars on large contracts, and an expectation to win immediately. The catch is, Ausmus inherited a perennial contender in Detroit, whereas the Halos have just one postseason appearance in the last nine years and haven’t even cracked the .500 mark since 2015.
This being said, Los Angeles is facing quite a bit of urgency to get back into contention in a very tough AL West. Only two seasons remain on Mike Trout‘s contract, and while the club is expected to discuss an extension with the superstar outfielder, one would think Trout would need to be firmly convinced that the Angels are on an upward trajectory before he even considers another deal with the team. Trout has repeatedly spoken of his desire to win, after all, and he has only three postseason games (and zero wins) to show for his time in L.A. despite posting numbers that have already generated “best player ever” buzz.
A Trout extension would be by far the biggest achievement for the Angels this offseason, though looking at things from Trout’s perspective, it would probably be more logical for him to see how the 2019 season plays out before deciding about his long-term future. He’d have more of a chance to evaluate Ausmus, see how the team’s forthcoming offseason moves play out, and perhaps simply to see if the Angels already have a roster that is capable of winning if it can just stay healthy. Of course, it’s also possible that Trout will simply prefer to test the open market and at least explore a move back to his native east coast after the 2020 season.
Another potential factor in Trout’s decision, and also a matter of much broader import to the franchise, is the rather surprising recent news about the Angels opting out of their lease at Angel Stadium. We know the Halos still be in Anaheim in 2019, though it remains to be seen if the opt-out could lead to stadium renovations, an entirely new ballpark, or perhaps even a move to a new city, whether it be elsewhere in the greater Los Angeles area or maybe beyond. This situation will certainly bear watching in the coming months, and could potentially end up being one of the offseason’s bigger subplots.
Turning back to the roster, Trout is coming off yet another superlative season, hitting .312/.460/.628 with 39 homers over 608 PA and contributing 9.8 fWAR to the Angels’ cumulative 24.4 fWAR for position players. Of the club’s returning players, Andrelton Simmons (5.5 fWAR), Justin Upton (3.1 fWAR), Shohei Ohtani (2.8 fWAR only as a DH), and rookie David Fletcher (1.9 fWAR) combined with Trout for 23.1 fWAR, giving you some idea of how top-heavy the production was within the Angels’ lineup. The team didn’t receive much from the catcher position (Martin Maldonado was traded to the Astros in July), and Kole Calhoun, Zack Cozart, and Albert Pujols were all replacement-level or worse in 2018.
There likely won’t be much change to the position player core, as the outfield will again comprise of Upton, Trout, and Calhoun, with the Halos hoping that Calhoun can build on a much-improved second half. Simmons will again be the infield’s cornerstone at shortstop, while Fletcher and Cozart will handle second and third base, though it isn’t yet clear who will handle either position. Fletcher’s emergence was a nice positive, and it gives the team flexibility in deciding the best spot for Cozart over the last two years of his contract. Cozart’s first year in Anaheim came to premature end in June due to shoulder surgery, and the veteran infielder is hoping for better health to rebound from this lost season.
After undergoing Tommy John surgery earlier this month, Ohtani almost certainly won’t pitch for the Angels in 2019, though he will still be able to contribute at a designated hitter for the bulk of the season. Depending on his rehab, Ohtani may not necessarily be ready for Opening Day, and the team might choose to not play Ohtani every day when he does return from the DL for the sake of his long-term conditioning. At this point, the plans have yet to take shape.
Even if Ohtani doesn’t receive many more than the 367 plate appearances he received in 2018, however, he still projects to be a huge part of the L.A. lineup. Among players with at least 350 PA last season, Ohtani’s 152 wRC+ ranked eighth in all of baseball. That was despite some rather drastic splits (1.043 OPS against right-handed pitching, .654 OPS against left-handed pitching) and, of course, the wholly unique factor that Ohtani spent half his time as a pitcher.
The Angels are likely to give Albert Pujols some DH time when facing a left-handed starter, as the veteran slugger can’t be an everyday option at first base given his history of injuries (including knee and elbow procedures this season). After his second consecutive negative-fWAR season, there’s little evidence to suggest that Pujols should still get any sort of regular action, and a case could be made that the Angels would be better off eating Pujols’ remaining $87MM in salary rather than continue to use a roster spot on such a limited player.
Until we get hints that the Angels are considering a release, however, Pujols will continue to be penciled in for a timeshare at first base and DH. Owner Arte Moreno recently stated that the club’s offseason to-do list includes “a left-handed bat with some power to play first base,” though such a player would be used “just to fill in.” Free agents like Lucas Duda, Matt Adams, Adam Lind, Pedro Alvarez, or Logan Morrison could fit this description if Los Angeles truly is looking for just part-time help. On the trade front, a slightly more versatile first baseman like Eric Thames could help at first and also provide corner outfield depth. In a recent outline of Justin Smoak‘s trade market, I cited the Angels as a longshot choice due to Pujols’ presence, though the switch-hitter is an affordable short-term option ($8MM in 2019) who has crushed righty pitching over the last two seasons. Adding a player limited to first base, of course, would make for quite an awkward roster arrangement. Optimally, the lefty bat would come from a player who can also line up elsewhere in the infield. A player such as Asdrubal Cabrera could theoretically make some sense, though it’s unclear how much the club can spend on this need.
If the infield mix could use a boost, it’s equally true that the club will be interested in finding a complimentary piece to put alongside Calhoun. That role fell flat in 2018, as Young struggled with injuries and wasn’t effective. Presumably, the club will pick up a different right-handed-hitting outfielder for the season to come. Among free agents, players such as Cameron Maybin, Carlos Gomez, and Matt Szczur could receive consideration. There’ll surely also be plenty of possibilities on the trade market.
Looking elsewhere at the bench, the Angels will be open for business in looking for additional depth, likely in the form of veterans on minor league contracts. After all, there are some other worthwhile internal names to consider. Jose Miguel Fernandez, Michael Hermosillo, Taylor Ward, and Luis Rengifo are some of the young in-house options, and MLB.com’s Maria Guardado recently opined that the latter two players could potentially challenge Fletcher for a starting gig. Top prospects Jo Adell and Jahmai Jones both reached Double-A in 2018 and could factor into the big league roster later in the season.
The catcher position looks like the Angels’ clearest opportunity for an offensive upgrade. Jose Briceno and Francisco Arcia handled the bulk of the work after Maldonado was traded, and the likeliest course of action would be that the two rookies compete in Spring Training for the backup job or potentially a platoon role, depending on who Los Angeles brings into the mix. There are quite a few known veteran options available in free agency (Kurt Suzuki, Jonathan Lucroy, Brian McCann, Matt Wieters, or Maldonado himself) who could fit into a timeshare if the Angels still intend to see what they have in Bricano or Arcia.
The team is no stranger to a big free agent splash, however, so Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Ramos figure to land on the Halos’ radar screen. Of the two, Grandal is younger, a better pitch framer, and has a less troublesome injury history, though he is also going to require a bigger contract (and could cost a draft pick, if the Dodgers extend a qualifying offer and Grandal rejects it). The Angels will probably at least check in with the Marlins about J.T. Realmuto, though L.A. will be hesitant to part with the prospects necessary to land the All-Star catcher.
An improving farm system does give the Halos some notable trade chips to work with, though creating a sustainable future will require discipline. A high-profile trade, then, may not be terribly likely. It’s fair to wonder, though, whether the Angels have the budget space for at least one big new salary. The team’s Opening Day payrolls have topped the $166MM mark in each of the last two seasons, and Moreno has shown a clear willingness to spend in his time owning the team, with the caveat that the team has always remained under the luxury tax threshold. The Angels have roughly $146MM on the books for 2019, factoring in the $4.3MM saved in the form of the likely non-tender candidates. Adding one major salary would likely mean increasing the spending line. With a current CBT threshold of $206MM, perhaps that’s a real possibility.
The bulk of the team’s spending this winter, however, is very likely to be directed towards pitching. Eppler has said that the Angels will be looking at both starters and relievers as they look to augment a unit that has been crushed by injuries in recent seasons. In 2018 alone, the Halos saw Ohtani, Garrett Richards, Keynan Middleton, Blake Wood, John Lamb, and J.C. Ramirez all undergo Tommy John surgeries, while Nick Tropeano battled shoulder problems all year and Jake Jewell was sidelined after fracturing his right fibula.
Andrew Heaney‘s first full season back from a past Tommy John surgery saw the southpaw toss 180 innings, which was one bright spot for the rotation. Heaney and Tyler Skaggs are the two pitchers who already have a claim to starting jobs, while the group of Jaime Barria, Matt Shoemaker, and Felix Pena will compete for at least one of the remaining spots in the starting five. Tropeano, Parker Bridwell, and Alex Meyer will be in the mix at least as depth options, and prospects Griffin Canning and Jose Suarez aren’t too far away. Ramirez could also factor in as late-season depth if he isn’t non-tendered, and while Richards isn’t expected to pitch in 2019, the Angels could try to re-sign him on a relatively cheap two-year deal with the bulk of the money coming when he’s healthy in 2020.
There is plenty of room here for a proper ace, an innings-eating workhorse, or both as the Angels do their offseason shopping. Expect L.A. to be active in trade talks for any available arms, while Patrick Corbin and Dallas Keuchel are the two top names currently leading the free agent pitching market. Gio Gonzalez and J.A. Happ are more durable, less-expensive options, with Happ delivering better recent results for the Yankees and Blue Jays.
The most earth-shaking move, particularly within the Los Angeles baseball scene, would be if the Angels could convince Clayton Kershaw to leave Chavez Ravine for Anaheim. Kershaw can opt out of the remaining two years on his Dodgers contract after the season, and would instantly become the biggest target in the pitching market if he did enter free agency. It still isn’t clear if Kershaw will exercise his opt-out clause, though it be logical for him to at least explore his options, even if he does ultimately want to remain with the Dodgers.
The Angels will certainly be in touch with Kershaw if he does test the market, though they surely won’t be a favorite to land him. They could also consider another Dodgers starter in Hyun-Jin Ryu, though Ryu comes with another checkered injury history. The Dodgers have not shied away from loading up on pitchers with questionable health histories, so that could be a strategy the Halos attempt to emulate. There are several other hurlers on the market who’d come with quite some risk. Most intriguing, perhaps, is Yusei Kikuchi, a top Japanese hurler who hails from the same high school as Ohtani.
The Halos bullpen posted middle-of-the-pack numbers last season, though they will boast a host of young arms even with Middleton sidelined. Blake Parker or Ty Buttrey are the top internal choices for the closer’s job, and there are lot of experienced ninth-inning names available in free agency ranging from rebound candidates (i.e. Kelvin Herrera, Greg Holland) to the top of the market (i.e. Craig Kimbrel, David Robertson, Jeurys Familia). With all of the injuries and durability issues within the Angels’ pitching staff, there’s also room for the club to explore using some of their recovering arms as swingmen or extended long relievers, perhaps with an “opener” in the first inning to take a page from the Rays’ book.
Even a moderate amount of pitching stability could’ve helped the Angels at least vie for a postseason berth in each of the last two seasons, as the team is coming off consecutive 80-82 records. With better health and another solid arm or two, it isn’t a stretch to imagine the Angels getting back into contention, considering that world-class building blocks like Trout, Simmons, Upton, and (even as only a hitter) Ohtani are already in place.
2018-19 Market Snapshot: Right-Handed Relievers
This is the latest installment in our Market Snapshot series. We have now completed our run-down of position players and taken a look at the market for lefty relief help, which brings up the market for right-handed relievers.
Teams In Need
Frankly, there isn’t a team in baseball that won’t look at bolstering its relief corps this offseason. A few contending clubs do perhaps stand out more than others, as they’re set to lose high-leverage relievers to free agency. The Red Sox (Craig Kimbrel), Rockies (Adam Ottavino and possibly Seunghwan Oh), Indians (Cody Allen and Andrew Miller) and Athletics (Jeurys Familia) are all facing notable losses.
The Cubs will lose Jesse Chavez and could be extra-motivated to find help following an injury-shortened season for Brandon Morrow. The Cardinals will bid adieu to Bud Norris and didn’t get the help they expected out of Greg Holland, Luke Gregerson and Dominic Leone last winter. The Twins traded from their bullpen depth and have a largely uncertain mix of arms — especially following some injury troubles for Addison Reed.
Teams like the Brewers and Yankees have ultra-deep bullpens and may not consider it their top priority, but even those clubs will be exploring the market. Generally speaking, the increased use of relievers, the diminishing willingness to let starters face a lineup for a third time in a game, and the advent of “the opener” strategy (which will expand in 2019) all figure to make the market for relievers as robust as we’ve ever seen.
Free Agents
High-leverage arms: Craig Kimbrel has been among baseball’s premier relievers since 2010. If he can rediscover success in the World Series, perhaps reinforcing the idea that pitch-tipping was at fault in his struggles earlier this postseason, he could be in line for an enormous deal. Jeurys Familia will pitch next season at 29 and should command a fair bit of free-agent attention. Few, if any, free-agent relievers elevated their profile more in 2018 than Adam Ottavino. David Robertson will be 34 next season, but his consistency and durability may still put him in line for a three-year pact. Joakim Soria somewhat quietly posted a 75-to-16 K/BB ratio in 60 2/3 innings this season with a sub-3.00 marks in FIP and SIERA.
Rebound candidates: A year ago, Cody Allen and Greg Holland both looked like they could cash in on hefty multi-year deals upon reaching free agency. Each had a season to forget. Allen lost his closer’s role in Cleveland and struggled to keep his ERA south of 5.00 amid control and home run issues. Holland was released by the Cardinals after flopping as their closer, though he did turn things around in his late run with the Nationals. Brad Brach had similar struggles in Baltimore before enjoying a similar rebound following a trade to the Braves. Bud Norris finished with an identical 3.59 ERA to Brach but had an inverse season, starting strong before wilting down the stretch (for a second straight season). Zach McAllister, who posted a 2.99 ERA from 2015-17, never found his footing in 2018 as he struggled to an alarming 6.21 ERA despite maintained velocity.
Injury cases: Kelvin Herrera could’ve been viewed as one of the prizes of the market, but he floundered after a trade to the Nationals and ultimately saw his season end with a torn ligament in his foot. His stock is down from when he had a 1.05 ERA and 22-to-2 K/BB ratio upon being traded to the Nats. David Phelps and Trevor Rosenthal will be looking to return to the Majors after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Each was a quality late-inning arm prior to suffering the elbow tear. AJ Ramos hopes to bounce back from surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder. Tony Barnette was terrific when healthy but pitched just 26 1/3 innings due to shoulder troubles of his own. An oblique injury barely allowed Randall Delgado to pitch in 2018, but he was a quality middle reliever in 2017.
Middle relievers: Veterans Tyler Clippard, Jim Johnson, Shawn Kelley, Sergio Romo and Adam Warren all turned in solid or better results, with Romo willing to experiment in the “opener” role.
Wildcards: Jesse Chavez came out of nowhere to give the Cubs 39 innings of 1.15 ERA ball with a 42-to-5 K/BB ratio, but his prior track record hasn’t indicated that we should expect a repeat performance. Joe Kelly continued to be one of the game’s hardest-throwing relievers (98.1 mph average heater), but his results didn’t align with his potentially overpowering stuff. Perhaps some team will dream on the upside and give him a sizable payday despite a lack of consistent results.
Depth: John Axford, Chris Beck, Matt Belisle, Christian Bergman, Blaine Boyer, Santiago Casilla, Jeanmar Gomez, Javy Guerra, Chris Hatcher, Daniel Hudson, Drew Hutchison, George Kontos, Peter Moylan, Fernando Salas, Junichi Tazawa
Trade Targets
Controllable arms (three-plus seasons): The rebuilding Orioles control hard-throwing Mychal Givens through 2021, and new front office leadership may not be as attached to him as the prior regime. Nate Jones‘ contract has three affordable options, making him a logical piece for the White Sox to market, though he comes with a notable injury history. Marlins righty Drew Steckenrider was in high demand at the non-waiver deadline and is controlled all the way through 2023.
It’s far from certain that the D-backs would actually listen to offers on Archie Bradley, who has another three years of control remaining, but he’d command quite a haul and there’s been varying levels of speculation about an Arizona rebuild. Likewise, if the Rangers truly wanted to provide a jolt to their farm system, they could make 2018 breakout star Jose Leclerc available. He’s controlled through 2022, though, so even though Texas won’t compete next season, Leclerc could be around by the time things begin to look more favorable. Then again, the volatility of relievers makes it tough to view them as building blocks, and Leclerc’s value might never be higher.
Shorter-term adds (one to two seasons of control): Kirby Yates has been nails with the Padres, particularly since adopting a splitter prior to 2018, and he’s controlled affordably through 2020 via arbitration. Teammate Craig Stammen is a pure rental but was brilliant for the Friars in 2018 and has just a $2.25MM base salary for 2019. Yoshihisa Hirano proved to be a brilliant signing for the D-backs and is signed through next season at just $3MM. Even if they don’t market longer-term pieces like Bradley, a short-term asset like Hirano would be a logical chip to put out there.
High-priced arbitration arms: Brad Boxberger is in for a notable bump, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.9MM next season despite middling results as the D-backs’ closer. Elsewhere in the division, Sam Dyson projects at $5.4MM with Giants teammate Hunter Strickland at $2.5MM. Depending on who is hired, new Giants leadership could look to move either righty. Up in Seattle, Alex Colome projects at $7.3MM, making him a pricey setup piece to star closer Edwin Diaz. And in Detroit, Shane Greene projects to take home a $4.8MM salary despite a miserable finish to the 2018 campaign that left his ERA north of 5.00.
Change-of-scenery candidates: Bryan Shaw (2 years, $19.5MM remaining), Mark Melancon (2/$28MM), Juan Nicasio (1/$9MM), Addison Reed (1/$8.5MM), Anthony Swarzak (1/$8MM), Luke Gregerson (1/$6MM) and Brandon Kintzler (1/$5MM) are among the free-agent signees of the past two offseasons whose contracts haven’t panned out as hoped just yet. Hector Neris is a vastly more affordable option with a $2MM projected salary in arbitration, but the Phillies are reportedly willing to listen to offers on a wide slate of players; Neris, who lost his closing gig midseason and was even optioned to Triple-A for awhile, has seen hi standing in the organization slip a bit.
MLBTR Originals
Recapping the past week’s worth of original content from the MLB Trade Rumors writing team…
- MLBTR’s annual Offseason Outlook series is underway, as we deliver a team-by-team analysis of what moves could be on the horizon this winter. Tim Dierkes got things started with a preview of the Cubs‘ offseason, and Mark Polishuk contributed outlooks on the Rays and Diamondbacks.
- Jeff Todd and Steve Adams continued the Market Snapshot series, previewing the potential free agent and trade options available at every position (and the teams who could be interested) this winter. This week, Steve looked at corner outfielders, while Jeff broke down center fielders, third basemen, and left-handed relievers.
- There are a number of intriguing players who could be in line for long-term extensions this winter, including Athletics third baseman Matt Chapman and Yankees center fielder Aaron Hicks. In MLBTR’s latest Extension Candidate entries, Jeff Todd looks at what a multi-year deal could look like between Chapman and the A’s, while Connor Byrne explores what it might take to keep Hicks in the Bronx.
- Taking a look at two notable Statcast metrics, Connor broke down the top five free agent hitters at every position, ranked by expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) and average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives.
- Paul Goldschmidt could potentially be one of the biggest trade chips available this offseason, though would the Diamondbacks really deal their longtime star? Connor posed the question to the MLBTR readership in a poll, with 55.76% of respondents voting that Goldschmidt would indeed be switching teams before Opening Day.
- Another NL West team was featured in another MLBTR poll this week, as Jeff asked if the Rockies should issue a qualifying offer to pending free agent DJ LeMahieu. 60.03% of readers polled arguing against LeMahieu receiving the one-year, $17.9MM contract.
- Finally, Connor asked readers the question on the mind of the entire baseball world this week — who’s going to win the World Series? A strong 69.39% majority of readers polled predict that the Red Sox will be triumphant over the Dodgers in this year’s Fall Classic.
Looking For A Match In A Justin Smoak Trade
The last two offseasons haven’t been too kind to the classic first base-only slugger, as teams have been increasingly less keen to spend their free agent dollars or trade assets on a player who is only viable at a single position (and the easiest position on the field to fill, at that). As Jeff Todd recently noted in his Market Snapshot of this offseason’s first base options, there are many more intriguing everyday first basemen available in trades than in free agency, though even many of the top potential trade chips carry question marks.
For instance, it isn’t clear whether or not the Diamondbacks would actually be willing to trade face of the franchise Paul Goldschmidt, or if they’ll take a less drastic approach to their offseason maneuvering. Jose Abreu has been mentioned in trade rumors for a couple of years now, though the White Sox have been unwilling to deal their clubhouse leader, plus Abreu’s stock may have dropped coming off the worst of his five MLB seasons. The likes of Brandon Belt, Wil Myers, or Carlos Santana carry pricey multi-year commitments, while other first base options might only be suited for platoon duty (i.e. Eric Thames, Justin Bour), might be too hard to acquire in a trade due to years of control (i.e. Jose Martinez), or have yet to prove themselves at the Major League level (i.e. Greg Bird, Dominic Smith).
This leaves Justin Smoak standing out as perhaps the clearest, and most decidedly available, first base upgrade of the offseason. Unlike the D’Backs or White Sox, the Blue Jays are certainly to open to all offers on their veterans, after having already unloaded much of their experienced talent last season. Contract-wise, Smoak is a fit in virtually any payroll, as he is controlled only through the 2019 season (via a club option that the Jays will certainly exercise) and at a price of just $8MM. That makes him a decidedly less expensive proposition than Belt and company, or even players like Goldschmidt ($14.5MM club option) and Abreu (a projected $16MM salary in arbitration) who are also controlled only through 2019.
Smoak’s option will bring the total value of his contract to three years and $16.25MM, and getting some good young talent back for Smoak in a trade would be the icing on the cake of what has proven to be a shrewd extension for the Jays. Once a top-ranked prospect, Smoak still hadn’t found consistency at the MLB level when the Jays acquired him off waivers from the Mariners after the 2014 season, or even when he signed that extension partway through the 2016 season. Upon taking over the everyday first base job in the wake of Edwin Encarnacion‘s departure, however, Smoak has enjoyed a late-career breakout, cracking 63 homers and hitting .256/.353/.495 over 1231 PA since the start of the 2017 season.
Smoak brings no value on the basepaths (-7.3 BsR in 2018), and the advanced metrics are somewhat mixed on his fielding, as he has alternated between above-average and below-average UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved totals in each of the last four seasons. Beyond just that middling glovework, Smoak — who turns 32 in December — can’t play elsewhere in the field. A team in need of offense, however, could be willing to overlook these drawbacks for a switch-hitter who has created 28 percent more runs (128 wRC+) than the average big league hitter over the last two seasons.
Let’s check out which teams make sense as potential Smoak suitors this winter. After writing off the teams that are rebuilding and/or are already set at first base (Dodgers, Giants, Padres, Reds, Brewers, Cubs, Cardinals, Phillies, Nationals, Mets, Marlins, Braves, Rangers, Athletics, Royals, White Sox, Indians, Tigers, Orioles), that leaves us with…
Longshots
- Angels: They almost surely belong in the previous category since Albert Pujols and his hefty contract ($87MM remaining) are still on the books through the 2021 season. Pujols has, however, been the second-worst qualified player in baseball over the last two seasons as judged by the fWAR metric (-2.0 fWAR), and he’ll be asked to play even more first base since Shohei Ohtani will take an increasing number of DH at-bats in 2019. The thought is that the Angels will look for a part-time first baseman, though there’s at least a slim chance that they could look to acquire a regular like Smoak and relegate Pujols to the role of a highly-paid bench bat.
- Pirates: It’s too early to tell if the Bucs will make a full-fledged push to contend in 2019, and if they do, they arguably already have a first baseman in Josh Bell. Through two full seasons, however, Bell has just 1.5 fWAR total due to defensive and base-running shortcomings, plus his power numbers dropped off considerably last season. I wouldn’t expect Pittsburgh to give up early on a young and controllable player, plus the Pirates would need to carve out some payroll space elsewhere to afford Smoak.
- Diamondbacks: Well, if GM Mike Hazen plans to “be creative” with his offseason moves and doesn’t want a full rebuild, Arizona could deal Goldschmidt, and then acquire Smoak in a separate trade. This keeps first base strong for the D’Backs while also saving $6.5MM in salary. That said, this scenario is admittedly a little far-fetched.
- Yankees: Luke Voit and Bird comprise New York’s current first base options, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see Miguel Andujar in the mix if the Yankees add a more defensively-adept third baseman (hint hint). Between these internal options and more position-juggling if the Yankees re-signed Andrew McCutchen or added another outfielder, trading for Smoak seems like it would be pretty far down their list of options.
- Red Sox: Mitch Moreland is still under contract for 2019, and with J.D. Martinez locked into the DH spot, Boston is likely to just look for a right-handed hitting first baseman (potentially a re-signed Steve Pearce?) as a platoon partner rather than look for a full-timer.
Potential Suitors
- Rays: Smoak has a better track record than C.J. Cron, who the Rays are likely to cut ties with this offseason, though it isn’t clear if Smoak fits Tampa’s desire for an “impact” bat to hit from the right side of the plate (the Rays already have left-handed hitters Ji-Man Choi and Jake Bauers in the first base/DH mix). Cron was also actually slightly more productive than Smoak in 2018, with a 2.1 fWAR and 122 wRC+ to Smoak’s 1.7 fWAR and 121 wRC+, and since Smoak earns more than Cron’s projected $5.2MM arbitration salary, the Rays might want more of a substantial upgrade.
- Twins: This team has enough needs that they could take a step back to reload in 2019 rather than aim to contend. If they do decide to make a push in a weak AL Central, however, a new first baseman could be required if Joe Mauer retires.
- Astros: DH Evan Gattis and utilityman Marwin Gonzalez are scheduled for free agency, leaving a couple of holes in Houston’s lineup. Yuli Gurriel might be able to step into Gonzalez’s utility role, so even if he still gets some time at first base, it leaves room for another player like Smoak in the mix. If the Astros still have long-term plans for A.J. Reed, he wouldn’t be blocked by Smoak stepping in for just one season.
- Mariners: The first base/DH situation in Seattle is very much up in the air, considering Nelson Cruz‘s free agency, Ryon Healy‘s struggles in his first year with the M’s, and where the team plans to play Robinson Cano and Dee Gordon in 2019. Shifting Gordon back to his old second base spot and moving Cano into a second base/first base/DH timeshare would be a more defensively feasible, and likely wouldn’t create room for a player like Smoak unless Healy was dealt. One can’t truly rule out any scenario when it comes to trade-happy GM Jerry Dipoto, however, and bringing Smoak back to Seattle could work as a short-term fix.
- Rockies: Only the Orioles got less from their first base position than the Rockies in 2018, as Colorado first baseman combined for less than replacement-level production (-0.8 bWAR). Regular first baseman Ian Desmond could face a move back to the outfield since Gerardo Parra and Carlos Gonzalez could leave in free agency, and Ryan McMahon hasn’t shown much to prove that he could handle the position at this point in his career. The Rockies might prefer a proven veteran at first base as they look for their third consecutive postseason berth, and Smoak’s bat would be a nice addition for an overall lackluster Colorado lineup. The Rockies have the clearest need at first base of any contender, and it’s worth noting that they already linked up with the Blue Jays on one recent deal, when Seunghwan Oh was traded to Colorado last July.
Extension Candidate: Aaron Hicks
In shortstop Didi Gregorius and center fielder Aaron Hicks, the Yankees entered the offseason with two obvious extension candidates among their position players. But since the Yankees’ season ended Oct. 9, when the Red Sox bounced them from the ALDS, Gregorius underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow. Consequently, Gregorius will miss a large chunk of next season – his contract year – which could make him a more logical non-tender candidate than someone who’s up for an extension. That leaves Hicks, who’s also set to become a free agent a year from now. Considering Hicks’ production over the past couple seasons, perhaps the Yankees will work to prevent him from reaching the open market any time soon.
New York bought fairly low on Hicks in 2015, seven years after he went 14th overall in the 2008 draft, when it acquired him from Minnesota for backup catcher John Ryan Murphy. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd noted at the time that it was a surprise the Twins gave up on Hicks on the heels of an encouraging season. After Hicks was essentially a non-factor in a combined 150 games from 2013-14, he managed 2.0 fWAR in 97 contests and 390 plate appearances in his final season as a Twin. Along the way, the switch-hitter mixed approximately league-average offensive production (.256/.323/.398 with 11 home runs – good for a 96 wRC+) with quality base running (13 steals on 16 attempts) and plus defense in center field (two DRS, 6.9 UZR).
Upon landing Hicks – who was then 26 years old – Yankees general manager Brian Cashman declared, “We think Aaron Hicks is an everyday player.”
Cashman’s assessment looked wildly optimistic in Hicks’ first season in the Bronx, though, as he endured a horrid campaign in which he managed minus-0.2 fWAR in 361 PA. While Hicks was fine in the field, his offensive production plummeted. Among MLB hitters who racked up at least 350 PA, Hicks logged the eighth-worst wRC+ (64), batting a weak .217/.281/.336. And when he did get on base, Hicks swiped just three bags on seven tries.
To Hicks’ credit, he put 2016 way behind him in the ensuing season, even though he wasn’t a regular at the outset of the campaign. All told, Hicks slashed an outstanding .266/.372/.475 (126 wRC+) and offered easily above-average production against both right- and left-handed pitchers. He also registered solid power numbers (15 homers, .209 ISO) with appealing walk and strikeout rates (14.1 percent BB, 18.6 percent K), and chipped in 10 steals on 15 attempts. With another season of high-end defense factored in, the big-armed Hicks was worth 3.3 fWAR over 361 PA. The only problem? He went on the disabled list with an oblique strain on two occasions, thus limiting him to 88 games.
Until 2018, Hicks only had one 100-game season on his resume. However, Hicks is now coming off a career-best 137-game, 581-PA campaign in which he truly emerged as the full-time player Cashman thought the Yankees were getting when they landed him. Hicks essentially matched his 2017 rates and continued to fare nicely against both righties and lefties, but he did so over a much larger sample en route to a 4.9-fWAR showing. While Hicks’ slash line dropped a tad to .248/.366/.467, his wRC+ increased to 127. Statcast data backs up that production, as there was little difference between Hicks’ weighted on-base average (.360) and his xwOBA (.365). The 29-year-old helped the Yankees’ cause by mashing 27 homers with a .219 ISO, putting up terrific K/BB numbers (15.5 percent and 19.1 percent, respectively), stealing 11 of 13 bags and, per FanGraphs, contributing elite base running in general.
If there’s one statistical gripe with Hicks’ season, it’s that the advanced metrics didn’t particularly like his defense. After he totaled a whopping 15 DRS – including 12 in center – in 2017, he fell to minus-3 this past season. UZR (0.7) and Outs Above Average (minus-3) weren’t all that bullish on Hicks’ work, either. No matter, Hicks was still one of the game’s most valuable outfielders in 2018, and if the Yankees expect that to continue, they may try to lock him up in the coming months.
The question: How much might it cost New York to extend Hicks? Although several outfielders have signed extensions over the past couple years, none are that comparable to Hicks in production and/or his closeness to free agency. One possible exception is Charlie Blackmon, who – like Hicks now – had five-plus years of service time and was only a season away from free agency at this time a year ago. Blackmon ended up inking a five-year, $94MM guarantee to stay in Colorado last spring, when he had just begun his age-31/32 season. While Blackmon garnered that contract as a player who was a couple years older than Hicks is now, the former also offered a more accomplished track record. Blackmon was a two-time All-Star, a two-time Silver Slugger recipient, an NL batting champion and a past MVP candidate when the Rockies ponied up for him. Hicks doesn’t have any such honors on his resume.
If Blackmon’s deal is out of reach for Hicks, perhaps one of the recent big-money contracts given to a center fielder in free agency would be more realistic. A pair of center fielders – the Cardinals’ Dexter Fowler and the Brewers’ Lorenzo Cain – scored five-year contracts worth $82.5MM and $85MM, respectively, on the open market over the previous two winters. Fowler inked his pact on the brink of his age-31 season, while Cain signed his as a soon-to-be 32-year-old. Age is on Hicks’ side in both cases, then; however, like Blackmon, both Fowler and Cain had more established track records than Hicks when they signed, and it helped that they had multiple teams bidding on them in free agency.
While the comparisons are imperfect, Hicks’ reps at CAA Sports likely wouldn’t be out of their depth to push for an extension in the neighborhood of the contracts Fowler and Cain received. He still has another full season to play before he turns 30, after all, and is fresh off back-to-back years in which he was among the game’s premier center fielders. Whether the Yankees will consider an extension for Hicks this offseason is unclear, especially considering fellow outfielders Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Clint Frazier are under long-term control, and they may pursue Bryce Harper in free agency. For now, Hicks is projected to play 2019 for $6.2MM – a bargain in light of what he brought to the table from 2017-18.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Poll: Who Will Win The World Series?
As sports fans know, Los Angeles and Boston have battled for NBA supremacy on several occasions. The two cities will square off again beginning Tuesday, but instead of the Lakers and Celtics fighting for a championship, it’ll be the Dodgers and Red Sox vying for a World Series title. At the outset of the 2018 MLB season, it wouldn’t have been a surprise to see either of these teams in this position. Nearly seven months later, however, it’s fair to say the clubs took wildly different paths to arrive at this point.
The Red Sox were dominant from the jump, winning 17 of their first 19 games, and they didn’t let up much en route to a league-best 108-54 record. The club finished with the sport’s second-best run differential in the process (plus-229), thanks largely to a Mookie Betts– and J.D. Martinez-led attack which crossed home plate more than any other offense. Despite being an AL MVP front-runner, Betts’ production has fallen flat this postseason (.578 OPS in 44 plate appearances), making it all the more impressive that the Red Sox went 7-2 against the majors’ only other 100-win teams – the Yankees and Astros – in the first two rounds of the playoffs.
Earning a playoff berth was never in doubt for the Red Sox, but the Dodgers were in peril at multiple points during the regular season. The team was supposed to roll after winning an NL pennant last year and losing a seven-game classic to the Astros in the World Series. Instead, the Dodgers began the season in catastrophic fashion, winning just 16 of their first 42 games – a stretch in which they saw star shortstop Corey Seager undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery. Things were so dire for the club in mid-May that I polled MLBTR readers on whether the Dodgers would even make the playoffs. Nearly 65 percent of voters said they wouldn’t. But manager Dave Roberts never wavered during the Dodgers’ horrific start, declaring: “When it’s all said and done, the Dodgers will be at the top of the division.”
The Dodgers ultimately did rally to win the NL West for a sixth straight year, but they were in third place in the division as late as September. They also needed to win a Game 163 versus the Rockies to settle it, and after cruising past the Braves in a four-game NLDS, they went the distance against the Brewers in a seven-game NLCS. To this point, the Dodgers own a 99-75 record (92-71 during the regular season), which pales in comparison to the Red Sox’s mark. But they did run away with the NL’s regular-season run differential title (plus-194), giving them a 102-61 Pythagorean record which is right in line with Boston’s (103-59). They also led the majors in position player fWAR and wRC+, and topped the NL in pitcher fWAR and runs scored. All of those numbers help illustrate that the Dodgers are where they belong, despite their trying regular season.
Looking beyond the stats, this series has no shortage of interesting storylines. It begins in the dugout, with Roberts (an ex-Boston player) versus rookie manager Alex Cora, a third-round draft pick of the Dodgers in 1996 who was a member of the team from ’98-2004. Both managers had signature moments in those teams’ uniforms – Roberts served as a playoff hero for the curse-breaking Red Sox in 2004, the same year Cora capped off an 18-pitch at-bat with a home run.
On the field, a pair of the most dominant lefties ever – Boston’s Chris Sale and LA’s Clayton Kershaw – could match up on multiple occasions, and they’re supported by bullpens that feature all-time great closers (the Red Sox’s Craig Kimbrel and the Dodgers’ Kenley Jansen). Those pitchers will contend with offenses which possess transcendent hitters, including Betts and Martinez on the Boston side and LA’s Justin Turner and Manny Machado – a longtime Oriole who has spent almost all of his career in the Red Sox’s division. Machado, whom the Dodgers acquired over the summer in response to Seager’s injury, hasn’t hidden his disdain for the Red Sox in the past.
With Machado on the verge of becoming one of the most sought-after free agents ever, this series may be his last in a Dodgers uniform. As his Dodgers tenure potentially winds down, perhaps Machado will help deliver the franchise’s first World Series title since 1988. On the other side, the Red Sox will attempt to take home their fourth championship since Roberts contributed to their cause a decade and a half ago. Which team do you expect to end up as the last one standing in 2018?
(poll link for app users)
Who will win the World Series?
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Red Sox 67% (9,445)
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Dodgers 33% (4,609)
Total votes: 14,054
2018-19 Market Snapshot: Left-Handed Relievers
This is the latest installment in our Market Snapshot series. We have now completed our run-down of position players, so we’ll turn to the pitching staff — beginning with left-handed relievers.
Teams In Need
There figures to be plenty of demand for lefty relief help. The Astros, Cubs, Mariners, Mets, Phillies, Red Sox, Rockies, and Yankees each could clearly stand to improve in that area. The Braves, Cardinals, and Nationals have some options but could be intrigued by the possibility of adding a high-quality set-up southpaw. You could perhaps argue the same for the Dodgers, though they have quite a volume of possibilities in house. Numerous clubs other could stand to add additional lefties, including the Angels, Pirates, and Twins, but don’t seem quite as likely to spend big money to do so.
Free Agents
High-leverage arms: Zach Britton and Andrew Miller are the big names here, though both have had plenty of injury questions and neither was in top form in 2018. The former is more youthful (30) and still racks up ridiculous numbers of groundballs, though his combination of 7.5 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9 hardly inspired and his sinker velo is down. Miller, 33, still gets the K’s (11.9 per nine) but has seen his swinging-strike rate move southward (13.2%) along with his own average fastball speed (93.6).
Middle relievers: Justin Wilson still can’t find his command, allowing 5.43 walks per nine for the second-straight campaign, but he’s also still hard to square up. Tony Sipp got as many good bounces in 2018 as he did bad bounces in the season prior. All told, he showed quite well but is already 35 years of age. Oliver Perez, who is two years Sipp’s senior, had an even more stunning bounceback campaign that featured a career-high 14.2% swinging-strike rate. Zach Duke, Jake Diekman, and Aaron Loup all underperformed their peripherals and seem likely to draw interest. It was the opposite situation for Jorge De La Rosa, though he still figures to land somewhere after a useful campaign. Speaking of potential converted starters, Jaime Garcia struggled badly in the rotation but produced a 3.54 ERA and held opposing hitters to a .181/.280/.278 batting line in 20 1/3 innings as a reliever. Jerry Blevins had a poor platform season, but he’s a bounceback candidate.
Depth: Tim Collins, Danny Coulombe, Boone Logan, Tyler Lyons, Tommy Milone, Hector Santiago
Trade Candidates
High-leverage arms: If the Giants decide to cash in some assets, Will Smith and Tony Watson look to be highly appealing pieces after both turned in excellent 2018 efforts. The Twins could perhaps consider selling high on Taylor Rogers if there’s an opportunity to get value on this market, though they have good reason to stand pat as well. He has plenty of value to the Rays, but Jose Alvarado could draw big offers after an eye-opening sophomore campaign.
Middle relievers: Richard Bleier could be a fascinating chip for the O’s, but he’ll first need to recover from a serious lat injury. Andrew Chafin and T.J. McFarland will draw interest if the Diamondbacks decide to throw in the towel on 2019. Rangers groundball/command artist Alex Claudio could hold some appeal despite a down 2018 showing in the results department. Marlins southpaw Adam Conley showed some spark at times in a relief role.
A variety of potentially useful pitchers could come available from contenders, either via trade or free agency, if those clubs decide they don’t really want to commit a roster spot and pay them what they’ll likely command in arbitration. Vidal Nuno (Rays), Sam Freeman & Jonny Venters (Braves), Xavier Cedeno & Dan Jennings (Brewers), Sammy Solis (Nationals), Luis Avilan & Adam Morgan (Phillies), and Chris Rusin (Rockies) are all possibilities. It’ll be interesting to see what the Dodgers decide to do with Tony Cingrani, who missed a lot of time and carried a 4.76 ERA but also sported an impressive combination of 14.3 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9. (The smart money is probably on him being tendered and kept in Los Angeles.)
Extension Candidate: Matt Chapman
The chatter started last year as Matt Chapman burst onto the scene for the Athletics. The early returns were impressive. Still, Dave Cameron was seemingly pushing the envelope a bit when he asked in early August whether Chapman could be emerging as a star.
Of course, as Cameron noted, there was plenty of reason to wonder whether Chapman would really be able to hit enough to profile as a true star. The thrust of the post, really, was that his outstanding glovework made Chapman a potentially excellent player even if he only hit around the league average. From that point in the season, moreover, Chapman’s output at the plate faded, leaving him with a solid but unspectacular 109 wRC+ at season’s end.
The overall rookie showing was still plenty promising, no doubt. A quality regular on a league-minimum contract for years to come? Sign any team up, especially one that’s somehow still playing in the O.co Coliseum.
Of course, it still remained to be seen how Chapman would look over a full season in the majors, after opposing pitchers had a chance to adjust. Would his prodigious minor-league strikeout levels be too much to overcome? Would his obvious defensive talent be sufficient to carry him if the bat lagged?
Consider those questions answered. Put most simply: he finished third in all of baseball in position-player rWAR (8.2) and rated among the top ten by measure of fWAR (6.5).
With 2018 in the books, the only question left is how much it’d cost the A’s to lock Chapman in for the long run. It’s a question that was already on the minds of the Oakland brass, as the organization reportedly sought to talk about a deal over the 2017-18 offseason. Unfortunately for the club, Chapman and agent Scott Boras declined the opportunity to discuss a contract at that time.
It could be, then, that discussing Chapman’s value now is mostly an exercise in the hypothetical. But it stands to reason that the A’s will at least try to open the door to talks once again — perhaps with added motivation as they seek to continue the momentum from an exciting 2018 season and keep pushing for a new ballpark. And perhaps Chapman’s camp will show some willingness to consider numbers now that he has set down a marker as a top-end player rather than a target for a cheap pre-arb deal. He is still reasonably youthful, at 25 years of age, but won’t reach arbitration until 2021 and can’t qualify for free agency until the 2024 season — his age-31 campaign.
A lot can change in the meantime, as Chapman’s just-announced thumb surgery underscores. Fortunately, it seems as if there isn’t any reason to think that procedure will represent an ongoing problem; exactly how it could influence the possibility of a deal isn’t entirely clear, though odds are it won’t be a major factor in any direction.
In examining Chapman’s merit as a player, there’s frankly not a ton to discuss regarding his glovework. It’s lauded by scouts and stats alike and there’s no real reason to think it’ll fade any time soon. He’s also a solidly graded baserunner even if he isn’t a threat to swipe any bags. The floor, as has long been suspected, is rather lofty. Those skills won’t really pay in arbitration, which is certainly a relevant consideration in contemplating the valuation of a potential extension, but their value isn’t in question.
The bat is where it’s still interesting to dig in. Even as Chapman’s output sagged some late in 2017, he made a notable improvement in his contact ability. For September and October, Chapman recorded a 21.2% strikeout rate — far superior to what he had shown as a professional to that point. He sustained the improvement in 2018, showing a similar approach to what he exhibited in 2017 but posting a much-improved 8.8% swinging-strike rate.
Even as he put the bat on the ball more often, ultimately carrying a 23.7% strikeout rate that sits barely above the leaguewide mean, Chapman kept producing power numbers. He finished the season with 24 long balls, a .508 slugging percentage, and .230 isolated slugging mark. With a solid 9.4% walk rate chipping in, Chapman managed a .356 OBP.
There’s a lot to like here, clearly. Upping his contact rate clearly didn’t prevent Chapman from making good contact. To the contrary, he posted an outstanding 93.0 mph average exit velocity and 47.6% hard-hit rate, according to Statcast. That said, some of the numbers also suggest some cause for skepticism with regard to the sustainability of Chapman’s output. His on-base numbers were boosted by a .338 BABIP — the first time he cleared the .300 barrier as a professional. Chapman’s average launch angle dipped to 14.7 and his groundball rate jumped to 40.3% (well over his minor-league average), perhaps explaining why Statcast credited him with only a .333 xwOBA — well shy of the .370 wOBA he actually recorded.
Perhaps it’s not a slam dunk that Chapman will produce at a rate thirty percent better than league average for the foreseeable future. But he has already shown more adaptability as a hitter than was generally anticipated and established a fairly significant overall offensive ceiling. If there’s some danger of regression, perhaps there’s also some possibility that Chapman will continue to improve at the plate. Supposing he settles in as a solidly above-average hitter who can’t ever quite fully combine both high-end power and strong on-base ability, Chapman could still easily run off a few more 5-WAR campaigns before he sniffs the open market.
Let’s get down to some salary numbers, then. Chapman largely matched Nationals star Anthony Rendon in output this year and likely has even greater arbitration earning upside with his potential to drive the ball out of the park. Though Rendon benefited from having originally signed an MLB contract, boosting his first arb salary, his anticipated total of around $35MM in total arbitration earnings seems to be a reasonable ballpark tally for Chapman. Of course, Oakland wouldn’t need to begin paying that for a few more years, during which time the club can pay him no more than it does any other player who happens to be taking up an active roster spot. And Chapman also was a bit slower to reach the majors, limiting his eventual free-agent value. Even if we guess he’ll ultimately command $30MM+ annual salaries in his open-market years, there’s a limit to what the A’s in particular would be willing to promise to lock those seasons in.
From a practical perspective, then, there’s reason to be skeptical that Chapman warrants anything approaching a nine-figure guarantee. He certainly would scoff at the kind of deal that he might have been presented with last offseason — say, the sub-1.000 service record deal (six years, $26MM) signed by Paul DeJong after a similarly strong 2017 debut. But there’s a reason that the current record for a player with less than two years of service is still held by Andrelton Simmons, at a relatively modest $58MM over seven years. In short, there’s not a ton for teams in this situation to gain by going wild at this early stage — particularly for players, like Chapman, that aren’t especially precocious.
It seems fair to assume that beating the Simmons deal would represent a bare minimum starting point to capture the attention of Boras, who is a notoriously hard bargainer in early extension talks, in particular. Even handing over control over a pair of free agent seasons for Chapman could, after all, have a monumental impact on his eventual open-market earning capacity. My own guess is that Boras would take aim at some other notable pre-arb targets, even if they were landed for players with more than two seasons of MLB service. The Mike Trout contract (six years, $144.5MM) is assuredly well out of reach, but Carlos Gonzalez showed way back in 2011 that even mere mortal pre-arb players can secure big guarantees (seven years, $80MM).
It might well take something approaching or exceeding that salary level to get Chapman to bite. That’d be an unprecedented payout for a player who hasn’t even recorded two full years of service time, but today’s youthful superstars seem to be holding for such a move in the market. It’s notable, after all, that we haven’t seen a premium all-around player ink a deal at that stage of his career in recent years, with the largest sub-2 extensions of recent vintage being secured by players like Simmons and Christian Yelich before they fully broke out in the manner Chapman has. Here, Chapman has not only already turned in a superstar-level campaign, but features the kind of offensive profile that will boost his arb earnings.
Whether there’s appetite on either side for a full exploration of a contract isn’t yet known. It could be that last year’s non-talks and/or the thumb surgery will interfere. Chapman may simply not have interest personally. The A’s have a clean balance sheet to work with, but they also have other priorities to address and have never yet opened a season with a payroll of even $90MM. Then, there’s the fact that the team’s record for a single contract is still owned by former hot corner stalwart Eric Chavez — a player who in some ways serves as a fairly interesting comp for Chapman on the field — which on the one hand illustrates the extent to which the Oakland organization would need to leave its comfort zone to do a deal, and on the other hand perhaps suggests it’s time it does so again.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.