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The Braves’ Fifth Starter Competition

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Coming off a 101-win campaign, the Braves again look like one of the top teams in the National League. There aren’t many areas of concern on the roster. On the position player side, all but shortstop and left field have established solutions who should play at somewhere between an above-average and star level if healthy. The bullpen is one of the sport’s best, and the top four starters of Max Fried, Spencer Strider, Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton is elite.

There is a little bit of uncertainty as to who’ll round out the starting staff, however. Atlanta has a handful of pitchers vying for the final rotation spot in Spring Training. A couple have had some big league success but struggled with underperformance or injury recently. Another is a less proven, younger talent.

Ian Anderson

At this time a year ago, it’d have seemed foolish to picture Anderson fighting for a rotation spot at any point in the near future. Heading into 2022, the former third overall pick carried a 3.25 ERA with a 24.5% strikeout rate in 30 career regular season starts. He’d twice excelled on the postseason stage. Anderson looked like an upper mid-rotation arm, a key starter both in the present and over the coming seasons.

The 2022 campaign was the first in which the righty ran into trouble. He made 22 big league starts but allowed five earned runs per nine innings across 111 2/3 frames. Anderson’s strikeout rate fell to a personal-low 19.7% clip, although he still picked up swinging strikes on an above-average 12.3% of his total offerings. While he did a solid job keeping the ball on the ground, he surrendered a little more hard contact than he had in prior seasons. Anderson also walked a career-high 11% of opposing hitters.

With Atlanta in the thick of a division race, they optioned the struggling Anderson to Triple-A Gwinnett in early August. He started four games there, posting similar numbers as he had in the majors. His season was cut short when he strained his left oblique in the middle of September.

Anderson is just 24 years old and certainly capable of bouncing back from the down year. His average fastball velocity was down marginally last year but still checked in at a solid 94 MPH. He owns one of the game’s better changeups. Anderson’s curveball was a little less effective, with the lack of an impact breaking ball contributing to a disappointing .313/.375/.511 line in 253 plate appearances against same-handed hitters last season. Anderson told reporters last week he’s working on a new slider to try to add a weapon to deal with righty batters (link via David O’Brien of the Athletic).

Bryce Elder

A fifth-round pick out of Texas in 2020, Elder flew through the minor leagues. He was in the majors by April of his second full professional season. The 6’2″ righty started nine of his first ten MLB contests, posting a 3.17 ERA through 54 innings. That came with strikeout and walk numbers each a bit worse than league average (20.7% and 10.1%, respectively) but a quality 49.3% ground-ball percentage.

He had a longer run in Gwinnett, starting 17 of 18 games. Elder’s 4.46 ERA in 105 Triple-A innings wasn’t as impressive as his MLB run prevention mark, but his peripherals were stronger across the board. He punched out 22.2% of opponents, kept walks to a 7.3% clip and racked up grounders at a 55.9% rate.

The 23-year-old isn’t overpowering, averaging only 90.7 MPH on his sinker during his MLB action. He consistently kept the ball down in the minor leagues, though, posting grounder numbers on over half the batted balls he allowed at every stop. Elder almost carried that over against big league competition in his first crack and should some aptitude for avoiding hard contact — thanks in large part to a cutter and slider he was comfortable deploying against lefties and righties alike.

Mike Soroka

Soroka, another ground-ball specialist, was one of the sport’s top young pitchers not too long ago. An All-Star at 21, he finished sixth in NL Cy Young balloting after posting a 2.68 ERA through 28 starts as a rookie in 2019. That came on the strength of an excellent 51.2% grounder percentage and tiny 5.8% walk rate, with Soroka demonstrating rare polish for a pitcher his age.

Unfortunately, a brutal series of injuries has limited him to three big league outings since then. Those came in the abbreviated 2020 season before he blew out his right Achilles. After a year of rehab, the same thing happened again shortly before he could make his return to a mound. He lost all of 2021 and almost all of ’22 recovering. Soroka returned from the injured list to start five Triple-A games late last year but felt some soreness in his elbow — not unexpected for a pitcher coming off such a long layoff — and was shut down for precautionary reasons.

While the Achilles and elbow concerns are hopefully behind him, Soroka has again been slowed up by his body this spring. He experienced some hamstring soreness that’ll delay his getting into Spring Training games for a few weeks. It’s not believed to be a major concern, but the righty candidly called it “a kick in the groin” given how much work he’s put in rehabbing from other injuries the past few seasons. It remains to be seen whether he’ll be able to fully build up for Opening Day.

Other Possibilities

It looks as if the early battle for the fifth starter job comes down to one of the three pitchers above (with Soroka perhaps behind the others given his hamstring issue). However, a few others could find themselves in position to vie for reps at some point during the season, particularly if one or two of Atlanta’s top four starters suffers an injury.

Kolby Allard, a former Braves first-round pick, was acquired back from the Rangers at the start of the winter for Jake Odorizzi. He has a 6.07 ERA in 65 big league contests but occupies a 40-man roster spot. The same is true of Darius Vines, whose contract was selected at the start of the offseason to keep him from the Rule 5 draft. He’s never pitched in the majors but posted a 3.95 ERA with a 28.5% strikeout rate over 20 Double-A starts to earn a late-season bump to Gwinnett.

Former Cubs righty Matt Swarmer signed a minor league deal over the weekend and is in camp as a non-roster invitee. 2020 first-rounder Jared Shuster had an impressive start at Double-A before a more average performance in Gwinnett last season. He’s not yet on the 40-man roster and one of the better prospects in a now-thin Atlanta farm system.

Offseason In Review: Arizona Diamondbacks

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The Diamondbacks went into the offseason marketing a surplus of left-handed hitting outfielders. After a few months of rumors, they pulled off their anticipated massive swap, landing one of the sport’s best catching prospects in the process. That was the biggest move, though the Snakes also supplemented their position player mix and made a trio of additions to the relief corps as they push for legitimate playoff contention.

Major League Signings

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The past few seasons haven’t gone well for the Diamondbacks. Arizona limped to last-place finishes in 2020-21, followed by a fourth-place showing last year. They partially compensated with a run of what appear to be strong draft classes. They never intended to enter a rebuild but the past few seasons have essentially functioned as such.

Over the final few months of last season, the young talent the organization had built in the pipeline began to translate to improved MLB results. Arizona was a roughly league average team in the second half, still shy of contention but quite a bit better than their previous few seasons. General manager Mike Hazen and his front office headed into the offseason with more clarity about the team’s strengths and weaknesses.

No spot on the roster was a more obvious plus than the outfield. Arizona had seen Daulton Varsho emerge as a productive regular. Top prospect Corbin Carroll debuted in late August and hit the ground running against MLB pitching. Jake McCarthy posted an impressive .283/.342/.427 showing in 99 games during his first extended big league action. Alek Thomas didn’t have the same level of success, though he’s highly regarded by prospect evaluators for his contact skills and center field defense.

Hazen indicated the team would field offers on that outfield glut, with four interesting and controllable left-handed bats who could appeal to other teams. Adding right-handed balance to the lineup and potentially upgrading over Carson Kelly at catcher were highlighted as priorities, while the front office implied they’d scour numerous avenues to upgrade a bullpen that was again among the league’s worst.

By and large, Arizona eventually checked off every item on that to-do list. The most straightforward path to achieving their position player ends would be to bring in a right-handed catcher with plus offensive upside. Arizona was unsurprisingly connected to Sean Murphy before the A’s sent him to Atlanta. While they missed out on Murphy, the Snakes eventually pulled off their catching addition in that long-awaited trade of an outfielder.

Varsho was the player who ended up the odd man out. A Gold Glove caliber defender who hit 27 home runs in 2022, he was one of the most appealing targets on this offseason’s trade market considering his four remaining seasons of arbitration control. The outfield-needy Blue Jays always looked like a strong on-paper fit considering their surplus of right-handed hitting catchers. Toronto had seemed likely to move one of Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk or top prospect Gabriel Moreno for some time, and things finally coalesced just before Christmas.

The D-Backs sent Varsho to Toronto for Moreno and corner outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Controllable for six seasons, Moreno is one of the game’s top young catching talents. He hit .315/.386/.420 with a meager 16.9% strikeout rate in 267 Triple-A plate appearances at age 22 last season. That earned him a brief MLB look, in which he posted a .319/.356/.377 line with only eight strikeouts in 73 trips to the dish.

There’s some question about how much power impact Moreno will make, but he’s an elite contact hitter with no concerns about his ability to stick behind the plate. Even if he only hits 10 home runs annually, his high batting averages and on-base numbers should make him one of the game’s best offensive catchers. He’ll push Kelly into a reserve role.

While Moreno was the key piece of the deal on Arizona’s end, they somewhat backfilled the outfield subtraction with Gurriel’s inclusion. While he’s certainly a downgrade from Varsho — particularly on defense — Gurriel is a low-variance everyday player. He’s coming off a .291/.343/.400 showing in 121 games. He only connected on five home runs during his final season in Toronto but has twice reached the 20-homer plateau in his career.

Gurriel offers above-average contact skills and typically shows decent power. He rarely walks and is limited to the corner outfield or DH after an early-career experiment in the infield didn’t pan out. While he’s a flawed player, Gurriel can hit and adds another right-handed presence to the lineup. He’s headed into the final season of his contract and will be a free agent at year’s end, meaning he’d be a straightforward trade candidate if the D-Backs aren’t contending midseason.

He’s not the only right-handed hitting outfielder the Snakes brought in via trade. Before the Varsho swap, Arizona rolled the dice on 2020 AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis. It was a one-for-one deal that sent catcher/outfielder Cooper Hummel to Seattle. Lewis has had a disastrous past couple seasons, with persistent right knee issues keeping him to just 54 combined games since the start of 2021. A former first-round pick and top prospect, Lewis hit .262/.364/.437 for Seattle during the shortened season. His health has been a question mark since he tore his ACL in a home plate collision within months of being drafted. Still, Lewis remains just 27 years old and won’t be counted upon for everyday work in the Arizona outfield.

Gurriel and Lewis provide matchup options in right field and at DH. Left field belongs to Carroll, who is a consensus top three prospect. Arizona has already looked into the possibility of extending him beyond his allotted six seasons of control in what could be one of the club’s more interesting storylines this spring. Thomas and McCarthy can each play center field, with the latter assured of regular run somewhere after his quality debut campaign.

The D-Backs added another righty-swinging designated hitter option via free agency. 15-year MLB veteran Evan Longoria signed a $4MM deal to split time between third base and DH. He’s obviously no longer the star he was at his peak, but Longoria has continued to hit at an above-average level into his late-30s. Injuries have cost him almost half the last two seasons. He’s best suited for a part-time or platoon role at this stage of his career and that’s likely to be the capacity in which he operates.

Left-handed hitting Josh Rojas should get the lion’s share of at-bats at the hot corner. Rojas is a good hitter with some defensive flexibility but isn’t a great gloveman anywhere. He’s an adequate if below-average third baseman, and his contact and baserunning skills make him a solid player overall.

He’ll presumably be playing alongside Nick Ahmed on most days. A two-time Gold Glove winner, Ahmed is still one of the sport’s preeminent defensive infielders. He’s never contributed much offensively and lost virtually all of 2022 to shoulder surgery. Arizona at least monitored the market for shortstop upgrades — including a loose link to Xander Bogaerts that always felt like a long shot — but ultimately completed the offseason without an addition there. Ahmed will be back and should take the job from Geraldo Perdomo, who didn’t perform well over a long look with Ahmed out last season. Still just 23, Perdomo could be in line for more time at Triple-A.

The other side of the second base bag is clearly defined. Ketel Marte will be back at the keystone. Christian Walker had a massive second half performance to seize hold of first base. Arizona brought in Diego Castillo in a minor trade with Pittsburgh to add some insurance in the middle infield. He figures to start the season in a utility role or in the minors.

Arizona took a volume approach to address their other offseason priority: the bullpen. They eschewed the top of the free agent market and brought in half of what figures to be their Opening Day group via lower-cost means. They started by claiming Cole Sulser off waivers from the Marlins, taking a buy-low flier on a pitcher who’d found success with Baltimore in 2021 before a disappointing year in South Florida.

That was followed by a series of value plays in free agency. Veteran righty Miguel Castro inked a one-year, $3.75MM guarantee with a ’24 vesting/player option. He’s a generally stable middle relief option, a pitcher who typically works to an ERA around 4.00 with solid strikeout and grounder rates but wobbly control. A couple weeks later, Arizona took a more unexpected dice roll on 33-year-old Scott McGough. The right-hander has just six MLB appearances — all of which came with the 2015 Marlins — and has spent the last four years in Japan. He posted a 2.94 ERA in 232 2/3 innings over four seasons with NPB’s Yakult Swallows and evidently impressed Arizona evaluators along the way.

McGough proved to be the organization’s only multi-year free agent signee of the offseason. His two-year, $6.25MM pact is still a relatively low-risk move, though it’s tough to project whether he can take on high-leverage innings in Torey Lovullo’s bullpen until seeing him against big league competition for the first time in almost a decade.

There shouldn’t be any such questions regarding Arizona’s final bullpen addition. Old friend Andrew Chafin looked like one of the top left-handed relief arms on the free agent market. He opted out of the final $6.5MM on his contract with the Tigers and seemed likely to find a strong multi-year pact after a second straight excellent season. For whatever reason, that apparently never materialized. Chafin lingered alongside a handful of other quality southpaws deep into the offseason until Arizona swooped in with a $6.25MM guarantee. The D-Backs also secured a 2024 option on what looks like a strong deal for the club, one that reinstalls a familiar face into key late-inning work.

Chafin, Castro, Sulser and McGough are presumably all going to open the season in the MLB bullpen. They’ll join left-hander Joe Mantiply, who had a breakout 2022 showing. Righty Kevin Ginkel presumably has a middle innings job secured after a quietly strong finish to the ’22 season. Mark Melancon is headed into the second season of a two-year free agent deal that didn’t pan out as hoped in year one. He’s no longer assured of the closer’s role; Lovullo has already indicated he could take a committee approach to the ninth inning early in the season (link via Steve Gilbert of MLB.com). Still, Melancon will presumably be on the roster in some capacity as the team looks for a bounceback from the four-time All-Star.

That only leaves a spot or two in the early going for depth types like Kyle Nelson, Corbin Martin, trade acquisition Carlos Vargas or non-roster Spring Training invitees like Jeurys Familia, Austin Brice, Austin Adams, Jandel Gustave, Ryan Hendrix and Sam Clay. There’ll obviously be some attrition in that group — injuries, workload management or underperformance will necessitate changes to the bullpen mix throughout the coming months — but the organization has stockpiled a little more relief depth than they’ve had in prior seasons.

The D-Backs didn’t need to do as much to build out the starting staff. Zac Gallen is a legitimate #1 starter. There’s no indication the sides have discussed an extension. It wouldn’t be surprising if the front office gauged his interest in signing beyond his remaining three years of arbitration control at some point. Merrill Kelly is a solid mid-rotation type behind him, even if his lack of swing-and-miss stuff could make it difficult to sustain a 3.37 ERA. There’s not a ton of certainty behind that duo, though the Snakes have a handful of options who could fill out the back of the staff. Zach Davies had a fine if unexciting season at the back of the rotation last year. He’s back after re-signing on a modest $4MM free agent deal and will hold one of the season-opening rotation spots.

Madison Bumgarner had similar production as Davies last season, albeit at a much higher price point. His five-year, $85MM free agent contract has been a major disappointment. Bumgarner has been a durable source of innings but hasn’t come close to reestablishing himself as the top-of-the-rotation starter he was throughout his time in San Francisco. In October, Hazen implied that Bumgarner’s veteran status would get him another shot in the rotation but indicated the club could eventually go in another direction as performance dictates.

Whether that happens might depend as much on Arizona’s younger pitchers than on Bumgarner himself. Righties Ryne Nelson and Drey Jameson look set to battle for the fifth spot this spring after each debuted late last season. Brandon Pfaadt has yet to reach the majors but is arguably more highly-regarded by evaluators than either Nelson or Jameson are. He pitched very well over ten Triple-A starts to close out last season and could be on the radar for a big league call early in the upcoming campaign. Tommy Henry and former high draft choices Blake Walston and Slade Cecconi headline the depth options behind that group.

There’s room for the club to still look into a veteran on a minor league deal to add some stability to the upper levels. Clearly, the main organizational hope is that higher-upside hurlers like Nelson and Pfaadt will perform well enough in the early going to cement themselves in the rotation. Should they do so, that could lead the organization to consider bumping Bumgarner or Davies from the group. Early on, however, Arizona figures to retain as much depth as they can given the inherent risk in counting on any pitching prospect to assume a large role on a team with playoff aspirations.

Whether the Diamondbacks have legitimate reason to hope for a postseason spot is debatable. The pitching staff, while improved, still looks a little light relative to those of most contenders. The club has question marks on the left side of the infield, particularly at shortstop. They’re in a gauntlet of a division, one where the ever-competitive Dodgers and ultra aggressive Padres will be projected 1-2 in some order by most observers. Arizona looks to have clearly pulled away from Colorado at the bottom of the division. It remains to be seen whether they can both leapfrog the Giants and hang in the Wild Card mix for a full season.

Even if a playoff berth looks like a long shot, there’s more reason for immediate optimism than has existed in some time. The core of the next competitive Arizona team is beginning to take shape, and the farm system should remain among the league’s best even after Moreno and Carroll graduate. Top prospects like Jordan Lawlar and Druw Jones are still a few seasons out, but it’s easy for the organization and its fans to dream about them eventually joining Moreno, Carroll, Marte and perhaps a young pitcher or two in comprising a group that can annually battle the behemoths at the top of the division.

In conjunction with the D-Backs’ Offseason In Review, Anthony Franco held a team-specific chat on March 2. Click here to view the transcript.

How would you grade the D-Backs offseason? (poll link for app users)

 

MLBTR Poll: Will Bryan Reynolds’ Situation Be Resolved Before Opening Day?

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Bryan Reynolds trade rumors have lingered over the offseason, even as there’s been nothing to indicate the Pirates have gotten seriously into discussions with any other club. As an All-Star player on a rebuilding team, Reynolds has drawn plenty of trade attention over the last couple years. The Bucs have steadfastly maintained a high asking price.

Against the backdrop of speculation has been the seeming stalemate between Reynolds and the Pirates in extension negotiations. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported over the weekend the club had offered $80MM over six years. With Reynolds eligible for arbitration through 2025, such a deal would’ve bought out three free agent seasons. According to Mackey, Reynolds’ camp had countered at $134MM over eight seasons. With discussions having stalled out, the 28-year-old requested a trade in December.

The Pirates attested that wouldn’t affect their asking price. That has seemingly borne out in the lack of substantive trade rumors over the nearly three months since then. Reynolds is back in Pirates camp. Both sides have expressed a willingness to reopen talks about an extension that could keep him in the Steel City for the long haul, though as of Saturday, the team hadn’t made a new offer.

The trade market has been dormant for the majority of the offseason. It’s entirely possible no swaps of significant note are made before Opening Day, although there are surely still plenty of teams that’d love to install Reynolds in their lineup. Teams like the Dodgers and Red Sox look likely to roll the dice on unproven options in center field. The Yankees, Braves and Rangers all have a handful of veterans for left field but explored more stable solutions at times this offseason.

Meanwhile, the Bucs and Reynolds’ camp at CAA Sports figure to touch base at some point over the coming weeks to see if they can bridge that reported $54MM gap. The deeper Reynolds gets into his arbitration seasons, the likelier it’d seem to become he prices himself out of the Pirates’ range. Perhaps they’re at that point already — even the organization’s $80MM offer would’ve represented a franchise record investment and was well shy of the asking price — but it seems each side is still amenable to negotiating despite Reynolds’ prior trade request.

Opening Day is a little over a month away. Spring Training is the most common time of year for teams and players to hammer out extensions. That’s often the result of a player setting an Opening Day deadline for those discussions, but Reynolds indicated over the weekend he had no such cutoff.

Will there be a resolution in the coming weeks, or will the uncertainty regarding the Bucs’ star carry into the regular season? Are the Pirates going to make a move with Reynolds before Opening Day: either by pulling off the long-speculated blockbuster or keeping him on a franchise-record contract?

(poll link for app users)

 

Big Hype Prospects: Jones, Mauricio, Vientos, Song, Brown

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This week on Big Hype Prospects… baseball is happening, and we are eagerly awaiting the results.

Five BHPs In The News

Druw Jones, 19, OF, ARI (—)
DNP

Jones is on pace to make his minor league debut this spring. The second overall pick of the 2022 draft, Jones missed the season with a shoulder injury sustained during batting practice. He’s widely considered a Top 25 prospect despite never appearing in a professional game. Like his father Andruw, Jones profiles as a speedy, defensively able center fielder who might grow into serious power within a few years. Andruw Jones debuted as a 19-year-old in 1996 and posted a 31-homer, 27-steal campaign as a 21-year-old in 1998. The younger Jones is unlikely to reach the Majors this year, especially in a system with such an impressive collection of young outfielders. However, he has the traits to explode through the lower levels this season.

Ronny Mauricio, 21, SS, NYM (AA)
541 PA, 26 HR, 20 SB, .259/.296/.472

Mauricio profiles as a volatile prospect, one whose days in the Mets system might be coming to an end. His defensive ability at shortstop is fringy, but it’s the only position at which he has extensive experience. The Mets have opted to keep him at shortstop where he’s blocked long-term by Francisco Lindor. There’s no clearer signal of their intent to trade him (in this writer’s opinion).

As a hitter, Mauricio lacks discipline and breaking ball recognition. Despite a 26/20 campaign, there’s reason to believe his apparent power and speed will play down. For one, he’s not actually fast. He was caught 11 times last season and is 39-for-66 (59%) for his career. Although his max exit velocity would rank among the Top 50 hitters, his unrestrained approach hints at a high bust rate. Mauricio is still a valuable prospect, but he’s not the sort of blue-chip asset teams want for their best trade assets.

Mark Vientos, 23, 1B/3B/DH, NYM (MLB)
(AAA) 427 PA, 24 HR, .280/.358/.519

Vientos made modest strides with his plate discipline in the last year. He profiles as a bat-first prospect who is ultimately destined for first base or designated hitter duties. It’s not yet clear if he has enough bat to sustain regular work at those positions. Right-handed hitting first basemen tend to have a high bar to clear. Often, they’ll eventually matriculate, but it can sometimes require a few stops along the way. The Mets’ own Darin Ruf followed this path. C.J. Cron serves as a happier example of this profile. He finally found lasting success with the Rays in his age 28 season after four years of treading water in Los Angeles. Due to his defensive limitations, Vientos has a narrow window to stake any claim to third base reps ahead of Eduardo Escobar or Brett Baty. Pete Alonso is only signed through 2024, and the designated hitter mix led by Daniel Vogelbach isn’t exactly the Mets’ strong suit.

Noah Song, 25, SP, PHI (—)
DNP

They don’t come more mysterious than Song. Once a touted draft prospect who fell due to a military commitment, the Phillies selected Song from the Red Sox in the latest Rule 5 draft. It’s the second time Dave Dombrowski has selected him in a draft. Now cleared for baseball duty, the Phillies will have the challenging task of deciding if he can serve as their eighth reliever. When we last saw him in 2019, Song featured a plus fastball, slider, and curve along with a developing changeup. We don’t know how those pitches grade out today, and I’ve yet to observe him this spring. Assuming the fastball and at least one breaking ball are viable, it’s possible they could hide Song in the bullpen, send him to the minors to stretch out in 2024, then reassess matters from there.

The first step in that chain, carrying Song on the active roster, is a doozy. The Phillies are coming off an improbable NL Championship in which they barely scraped their way into the postseason. All signs point to another uphill battle in 2023. Every roster spot counts. Using one on Song rather than a “proven” option like Bailey Falter could be the difference.

Hunter Brown, 24, SP, HOU (MLB)
(AAA) 106 IP, 11.38 K/9, 3.82 BB/9, 2.55 ERA

With Lance McCullers set to miss the start of the season, Brown is expected to make the Astros rotation. We can intuit they’ll carefully manage his workload. In fact, they were already doing so last season. At Triple-A, he made 14 starts with nine relief appearances. The Astros juggled the workloads of Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, and Jose Urquidy in much the same way last season, albeit less obviously. Brown more than held his own in 20.1 Major League innings. He averaged nearly 97-mph with his heater while recording 9.74 K/9, 3.10 BB/9, a 68 percent ground ball rate, and a 0.89 ERA. In the minors, he typically posted just north of a 50 percent ground ball rate. He’s a stuff-over-command starter who might fit best in short bursts.

Three More

Forrest Whitley, HOU (25): One of the options for the fifth starter slot, Whitley managed 40 innings in affiliated ball last season for the first time since 2019. He’s yet to broach 100 innings in a season, making a reliever role likelier if only for workload management purposes. Whitley struggled in his return to Triple-A. He once possessed five above average offerings and an ace-like ceiling.

Ethan Small, MIL (26): Small is a large left-handed changeup specialist with shaky command. Used as a starter throughout his four-season minor league career, the Brewers have now committed to preparing him as a reliever. This is his best opportunity to contribute in the short term. Even with Aaron Ashby sidelined, the Brewers have six quality starting pitchers on the big league staff.

Drew Gilbert, HOU (22): A 2022 first-rounder, the left-handed Gilbert dislocated his right elbow in a wall collision. He’s expected to be full health to start the season. A capable center fielder with discipline, contact skills, and non-trivial pop, Gilbert’s performance this season could cement a spot on Top 100 prospect lists. This is also a profile that often falls into a fifth-outfielder bucket. Consistent hard contact could serve as a forward indicator of his career trajectory.

Offseason In Review: Detroit Tigers

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A Murphy’s Law season in 2022 led to a period of transition for the Tigers. The club parted ways with general manager Al Avila in August, and now-former Giants GM Scott Harris was hired as president of baseball operations about six weeks later. Many expected the first offseason of the Harris tenure to be modest as he took time to get to know the organizations and its personnel. That largely proved to be true, with just a pair of major league deals, though there were also a couple of significant trades and the club was active in using the waiver wire to add depth.

Major League Signings

2022 spending: $18.5MM
Total spending: $18.5MM

Option Decisions

Trades and claims

Extensions

  • None

Notable Minor League Signees

Notable Losses

The Tigers have been rebuilding for some time, with the nadir coming in a 114-loss season in 2019. Some signs of optimism appeared in 2021 with a strong second half and a final record just under .500. The club decided to push chips in with an aggressive offseason, signing Javier Báez, Eduardo Rodriguez and Andrew Chafin. Unfortunately, just about everything went wrong, with most of the pitching staff and many lineup regulars missing significant chunks of time or falling short of expectations. It was decided drastic change was needed, which resulted in a change in the front office as Harris replaced Avila.

Given the optimism surrounding the 2022 club, perhaps there could have been an argument for continued in aggression in building around the existing core. The problem is that some of the setbacks from last year will rolling into this year. Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal are set to miss significant chunks of the upcoming season due to Tommy John surgery and flexor tendon surgery, respectively. Then there were many players who were expected to be core performers that disappointed enough in 2022 to raise question marks about their future trajectories and perhaps alter projections. With those factors, and the fact that most new front office hires generally take some time to get acquainted with their new organizations before making bold moves, the offseason tended towards the modest side.

As part of that modesty, only two free agent were given major league deals this winter. Matthew Boyd and Michael Lorenzen were each given one-year deals to fill the rotation spots vacated by Mize and Skubal. Each player is coming off a somewhat encouraging season. Boyd missed close to a year due to flexor tendon surgery but returned to toss 13 1/3 innings of relief with a 1.35 ERA. He’ll be looking to return to a starting role this year now that he was able to have a normal and healthy offseason. Lorenzen attempted to returning to starting last year after many years as a reliever. He posted a solid 4.24 ERA but missed time due to injury and only made 18 starts. Ideally, he’ll be able to build off that larger workload and push himself even farther this year.

Other than those rotation swaps, the area of the roster that will be the most changed will be the bullpen. Michael Fulmer was traded at the deadline last year, Andrew Chafin hit free agency and signed with the Diamondbacks, while Joe Jiménez and Gregory Soto were traded to Atlanta and Philadelphia, respectively. The relief corps was the one bright spot from the dismal 2022 season, but with the volatility of relievers, there’s some sense to selling high from that group. That will leave the club with a bullpen lacking experience, with José Cisnero and Tyler Alexander the only relievers on the 40-man into their arbitration years. Some non-roster invitees like Matt Wisler or Chasen Shreve could join them, but it will likely be a greener group on the whole. There will be opportunities for younger players to take steps forward, with Alex Lange, Jason Foley and Will Vest some of the candidates. Lange, in particular, seems set for a high-leverage role.

But subtracting from the bullpen has allowed the Tigers to add to their position player mix, a group that severely disappointed last year. The Soto deal brought in some major league-ready talent in Nick Maton, Matt Vierling and Donny Sands. All three have made their major league debuts but without truly establishing themselves. Vierling had a nice debut in 2021 but hit at a subpar level last year. Maton had a nice showing in 2022, but in just 35 games due to his part-time role. Sands only got into three MLB games last year but hit very well in the minors. All three of them probably deserved a longer audition but would have struggled to find it on a win-now Phillies team. With Detroit team in evaluation mode, their chances of a lengthy opportunity are greater.

Maton could replace the non-tendered Jeimer Candelario as the club’s everyday third baseman, though he’ll have competition from Ryan Kreidler and other offseason acquisitions like Tyler Nevin or Andy Ibáñez. Vierling will be in the mix for outfield duty alongside Akil Baddoo, Riley Greene and Austin Meadows, all of whom are coming off frustrating seasons to varying degrees. Kerry Carpenter figures to be in there as well after his strong debut last year. Notably, Vierling’s right-handed bat pairs quite well with that all-left-handed group, and can play all three outfield spots.

The Jimenez trade was more of a long-term play, as neither Justyn-Henry Malloy nor Jake Higginbotham have reached the majors yet. Malloy could vault himself into either the third base or corner outfield competition, though he’s likely behind the aforementioned names. He reached Triple-A last year, but it was merely an eight-game cameo in September. Since he’s not on the 40-man, he’ll likely head back to that level, at least to start the season.

In addition to those two signings and two significant bullpen trades, the club was quite active on the waiver wire. Harris seems to have brought over that tactic from the Giants, where he was previously employed, as San Francisco has shown a tendency to make numerous claims and subsequently attempt to pass players through waivers later. The Tigers have followed this path in recent months, grabbing many players off the wire and subsequently squeezing them off the roster in order to improve depth.

All of these new faces will likely be part of a large wait-and-see season that includes the incumbent players, most of whom will be looking to return to form after a down season. Boyd and Lorenzen will have rotation jobs alongside Eduardo Rodriguez, Spencer Turnbull and Matt Manning. Rodriguez missed significant time last year due to a personal absence and a ribcage strain. He was only able to make 17 starts. Shoulder and forearm injuries limited Manning to just 12 starts. Turnbull missed the entire season due to 2021 Tommy John surgery.

On the position player side of things, Meadows, Baddoo, Javier Baez, Jonathan Schoop, Spencer Torkelson and others will be looking to recover after their respective 2022 seasons saw them either miss significant time and/or play poorly. There’s plenty of talent in this group but many question marks after so many things went wrong a season ago. Things would look great if they could all turn things around, but the odds of everyone simultaneously rebounding are quite long.

As the months roll along, the club’s future plans will hopefully become clearer, based on who performs well this season and who doesn’t. In addition to all the performance uncertainty, Baez and Rodriguez both have opt-outs after this year. It doesn’t feel especially likely that either one would be in a position to trigger those, but a return to form could change that calculus. In addition to those two, Boyd, Lorenzen, Schoop and Cisnero are impending free agents after this year. Unless the club is a surprise contender this summer, they will likely be looking to make more deals at the deadline. Those players headed to free agency would be logical candidates if they are playing well, as would Turnbull or Meadows, who are free agents after 2024.

There’s also the matter of Miguel Cabrera, who will be turning 40 in April. He’s entering the final guaranteed season of the extension he and the club signed in 2014. There are $30MM club/vesting options for 2024 and 2025, though those won’t come to pass. He needs to finish in the top 10 in MVP voting this year to vest the option, whereas the team would much rather pay the $8MM buyout at this point. Though he’s one of the greatest hitters of this century, Cabrera hasn’t been above average at the plate over a full season since 2016, with chronic right knee pain and a ruptured biceps tendon among the injuries that have dragged him down with the passage of time.

It remains to be seen how much playing time Cabrera will get. He admits this is likely to be his last season, but the club will surely want to give significant at-bats to all the aforementioned younger players. If he does stay healthy and in the lineup, there will be some attention paid to his place on all-time milestone lists. His 3,088 hits place him 25th on the all-time list with nine players less than 100 ahead of him. His 507 home runs are 27th all-time and just six more long balls would allow him to jump up four more spots. One of the spots on the Detroit roster will seemingly be evoking memories of the past, but the majority of the remaining spots are dedicated to the future.

How would you grade the Tigers’ offseason? (Link to poll)

In conjunction with the Tigers’ offseason review, we held a Tigers-focused chat on Feb. 28. You can click here to read the transcript.

Offseason In Review: Oakland Athletics

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In conjunction with the A’s offseason review, we’ll be hosting an A’s-focused chat later this afternoon at 2pm CT. You can submit a question in advance, and check back to participate at 2:00.

The A’s began the offseason with a changing of the guard in baseball operations, as longtime executive vice president of baseball ops Billy Beane shifted into an advisory role and turned autonomy over to general manager David Forst. The A’s probably spent more in free agency than some expected — a low bar to clear — but they continued to trade away established talent with an eye toward the future. Whether that future will be in Oakland, Las Vegas or another city remains an open question; the team’s current stadium lease expires after the 2024 season and there’s been no agreement with the city of Oakland on a site for a new stadium.

Major League Signings

Option Decisions

  • None

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Heading into the offseason, the A’s were in a virtually unprecedented spot: zero dollars in guaranteed salary on the 2023 payroll, a small arbitration class (that featured a few trade/non-tender candidates) and very little in the way of established big leaguers on the roster. It was a blank slate that both lent itself to some degree of creativity and also spoke to the dire situation in Oakland, where the initial stages of a fire sale designed to scale back payroll and build up the farm had only succeeded in the former of those two goals.

The possibility of a Sean Murphy trade loomed large over the Athletics’ offseason and dominated A’s-related headlines throughout the winter. It’s easy enough to see why. Murphy has cemented himself as one of the game’s top defenders behind the plate, and he jumped from a roughly average showing with the bat in 2021 to a well above-average year in 2022 (with a particularly strong finish to the season). Add in that he entered the offseason as a first-time arbitration-eligible player with three remaining years of club control, and there simply weren’t many teams where Murphy didn’t make sense as a target.

Despite that, Murphy arguably landed on one of those very clubs that didn’t appear to be a logical suitor. Though the Cardinals, D-backs, Giants, Astros, Cubs, Guardians, White Sox, Twins and Rays were among the teams to inquire on Murphy’s services, it was the Braves — who already had three catchers on the roster — who wound up orchestrating a three-team trade to bring Murphy to Atlanta.

Oakland’s return in the Murphy trade has generally been panned; the Braves were not only a surprise trade partner for Murphy due to their own catching surplus (Travis d’Arnaud, William Contreras, Manny Pina) but also because their prior series of trades and prospect graduations had thinned out a once-vaunted farm system. Atlanta was willing to part with Contreras, who broke out with a .278/.354/.506 batting line over 97 games in 2022 and had five remaining seasons of club control, largely because Murphy is viewed as a vastly superior defender. Rather than accept Contreras as a headliner, though, the A’s flipped him to Milwaukee (along with reliever Joel Payamps) in order to acquire center field prospect Esteury Ruiz, whom the Brewers had acquired from the Padres a few months prior in the Josh Hader blockbuster.

The Murphy return is generally viewed as a quantity-over-quality collection of players. Ruiz brings elite speed — he stole a ridiculous 86 bases in 103 tries in 2022 — but doesn’t have much ability for making hard contact. Muller has solid Triple-A numbers but hasn’t had much success in limited big league time yet and is considered more of a potential fourth starter than a higher-end pitching prospect. The other arms in the deal — Freddy Tarnok and Royber Salinas — have had success in the minors but also come with a fair bit of bullpen risk. It wouldn’t necessarily be a surprise to see any of the three pitchers enjoy a run in the A’s rotation, nor is it out of the question that Ruiz’s blazing speed and baserunning acumen make him a table-setting type of outfielder for the foreseeable future.

Still, the general expectation when trading a player of Murphy’s caliber — particularly three years of control over such a player — is more certainty and more ceiling. The Athletics have had success with bulk returns that don’t necessarily feature high-end prospects in the past (e.g. acquiring Marcus Semien, Chris Bassitt and Josh Phegley in exchange for a year of Jeff Samardzija), in part because they seem to habitually buck the industry consensus when it comes to prospect evaluation. Part of that is surely recognizing that the unique dimensions of their home park tend to allow back-end starters (Cole Irvin, for example) to find success even if they’re not prototypical, highly touted pitching prospects.

Speaking of Irvin, he joined Murphy amid the latest offseason exodus in Oakland. Traded to the Orioles alongside minor league righty Kyle Virbitsky, he brought infield prospect Darell Hernaiz to the A’s. Irvin wasn’t a clear-cut trade candidate, as he had four years of team control remaining and wasn’t even eligible for arbitration yet, but the A’s surely feel good about acquiring him in exchange for cash in 2021 and flipping him for a prospect of some note just two years later. Keith Law pegs Hernaiz No. 6 among A’s prospects over at The Athletic, calling him a potential regular at second base or a super-utility option who can bounce around the infield. Either would be a nice outcome for an Oakland system that was light on infield depth.

It should be noted, too, that Irvin is a pitch-to-contact starter who’s thrived with the A’s partly due to the spacious confines of the Coliseum. He has pronounced home/road splits and has been quite susceptible to the long ball when pitching away from Oakland. He also finished out the 2022 season in a prolonged slump, and there was certainly risk that with a poor start to his 2023 season or an injury, the trade value he possessed might’ve quickly dried up.

The third notable A’s trade of the offseason shipped lefty A.J. Puk to the Marlins in exchange for minor league outfielder JJ Bleday. It was a “challenge” trade to some extent — a direct swap of the 2016 No. 6 overall pick (Puk) for the 2019 No. 4 overall selection (Bleday).

In this instance, the A’s gave up the player with big league success in order to acquire the younger, more recent draftee, but it was another somewhat curious swap for Oakland. The 6’7″ Puk rattled off 66 1/3 innings of 3.12 ERA ball in 2022, fanning a well above-average 27% of his opponents against a solid 8.2% walk rate and 43.4% ground-ball rate. Five of the 23 runs surrendered by Puk came in one nightmare outing against the White Sox, and his ERA outside that disastrous showing was an even sharper 2.47. Puk may not ever pan out as a starter — he’s already had shoulder surgery and Tommy John surgery since being drafted, and that injury history surely factored in Oakland’s decision to trade him — but he at least looks the part of a potential high-end reliever.

Bleday, meanwhile, is a career .225/.337/.409 hitter across three minor league levels with strikeout rates that have risen as he’s ascended the organizational ladder. He’s punched out in 27% of his Triple-A plate appearances and fanned at a 28.2% clip in 238 big league plate appearances last year, finishing with a .167/.277/.309 output in his debut effort. Bleday walks at a high clip but doesn’t make much contact and hasn’t shown more than above-average power to this point.

The Marlins have spent two offseasons looking for a center fielder and, despite coming up empty, felt comfortable trading Bleday, who has spent more time in center field than in the corners to this point in his career. The A’s are making a big bet on Bleday. We know the type of packages a southpaw like Puk could command at the trade deadline if he’s healthy and in the midst of a big season. One of these two teams is quite wrong about Bleday, and for the A’s to reverse their trend of underwhelming trade returns over the past calendar year, it’s paramount that they got this one right.

The rest of Oakland’s offseason featured a handful of sensible free-agent additions. Aledmys Diaz and Jace Peterson give the A’s some affordable infield flexibility — veterans who can hold down a starting position but handle multiple spots if a younger farmhand usurps their spot in the lineup. Peterson’s OBP-and-defense skill set at the hot corner, in particular, feels like a vintage Oakland play. Neither veteran’s signing garnered significant attention, but they’re solid hands who could easily hold some trade appeal — particularly Peterson, given his lower salary.

The Athletics also tapped into the KBO and NPB markets, signing righties Drew Rucinski and Shintaro Fujinami to cheap one-year contracts in hopes of catching lightning in a bottle. At 34, Rucinski is an older MLB reclamation project but has been nothing short of sensational in South Korea (732 2/3 innings, 3.06 ERA, 21.5% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate, 66% ground-ball rate). The younger Fujinami is a 28-year-old flamethrower who was once a high school rival of Shohei Ohtani (and a similarly touted prospect). He was dominant as a starter early in his NPB career but has battled command woes in recent years as his stock has dropped. For a one-year commitment at this price point, there’s little to dislike about the A’s taking a chance and hoping to unlock something in the 6’6″ right-hander.

One-year deals with Trevor May and Jesus Aguilar give the A’s a potential late-game bullpen option and a cheap roll of the dice on a power bat who’ll hope to turn things around in a change of scenery. May limped through an injury-plagued 2022 season but from 2016-21 had a solid 3.71 ERA with a massive 32.2% strikeout rate. Home runs have been an issue, but his new home park will help with that. Aguilar, meanwhile, is no stranger to pitcher-friendly parks, having swatted 22 homers in just 130 games with the Marlins as recently as 2021. Last year’s .235/.281/.379 slash was an eyesore, but dating back to 2017 he’s a .257/.326/.456 hitter with 109 round-trippers.

While many of the Athletics’ free-agent additions were sensible in a vacuum, they also underscore the manner in which the 2021-22 offseason’s slate of trades has come up short thus far. None of the pitching prospects the A’s acquired in trades of Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Chris Bassitt and Sean Manaea has solidified a spot on the roster yet, despite several arms receiving opportunities to do just that. Left-hander Zach Logue, acquired in the Chapman deal, was designated for assignment and lost to the Tigers on waivers less than a year after being acquired.

In the lineup, both center fielder Cristian Pache and third baseman Kevin Smith struggled enormously. Pache is now out of minor league options after batting just .166/.218/.241 in 260 plate appearances with Oakland last year. He’ll have to try to refine his offensive skill set at the big league level, but with Ruiz and Bleday now joining veteran Ramon Laureano, it’s not entirely clear that Pache will be given an everyday role, which only further complicates his development.

Broadly speaking, that’s a microcosm of the entire 2023 season for the A’s. It’ll be one of large-scale auditions for young players as Oakland hopes to piece together the makings of a core that unfortunately did not begin to take form in 2022. The only somewhat established starter in the rotation is righty Paul Blackburn, who had an out-of-the-blue, All-Star first half in 2022 before a torn tendon in his hand tanked his numbers in the second half. Others vying for spots will include Rucinski, Fujinami, Muller, Tarnok, Ken Waldichuk, Adrian Martinez, JP Sears and James Kaprielian.

In addition to Pache, Bleday and Ruiz in the outfield, the A’s will hope some combination of catcher Shea Langeliers (acquired in the Olson trade) and top prospect Zack Gelof (drafted 60th overall in 2021) can emerge as mainstays on the roster. Shortstop Nick Allen, a light hitter but high-end defender, will get another crack at shortstop, and the aforementioned Smith will likely get a big league mulligan at some point somewhere in the infield as well.

As the summer approaches, more A’s veterans will surface in trade talks. Expect each of Blackburn, Pina, Laureano, second baseman/outfielder Tony Kemp, first baseman/outfielder Seth Brown to surface in trade chatter this summer along with this offseason’s veteran signees — particularly those who inked one-year deals.

It’s a tough time for A’s fans, with no viable path to contention and — despite the gutting of a core that helped produce a 316-230 record from 2018-21 — one of the worst-ranked farm systems in the game. There will be plenty of opportunity for young players, and some of the veteran additions will help, but year two of the team’s rebuild feels a lot more like year one than it should.

How would you grade the Athletics’ offseason? (Link to poll)

The Marlins’ Battle For Playing Time Behind The Plate

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This past offseason marked the second straight winter in which the Marlins made a series of moves in hopes of upgrading the lineup. By and large, their set of transactions over the 2021-22 offseason didn’t pan out as hoped. Among those who had a tough first year in South Florida was backstop Jacob Stallings.

Stallings was a late-blooming regular for a couple seasons with the Pirates. He didn’t garner significant MLB playing time until 2019, his age-29 season. Once given the opportunity, Stallings developed into a solid primary catcher. Over a three-year stretch between 2019-21, he hit .251/.331/.374 in a little less than 800 plate appearances. That was a little better than the .233/.308/.399 line compiled by catchers overall. Stallings was a bit below-average from a power perspective but posted stronger on-base numbers than the typical backstop.

He’d paired that respectable offense with elite receiving behind the plate. Public pitch framing metrics loved Stallings’ work. He wasn’t charged with a single passed ball in 892 innings in 2021. While he wasn’t great at controlling the running game, he looked like one of the sport’s top pure receivers.

Considering those two-way contributions, it was understandable the Fish targeted Stallings to solidify their catching situation. The acquisition cost was fairly modest; they relinquished depth starter Zach Thompson and mid-level prospects Kyle Nicolas and Connor Scott for three arbitration seasons of their hopeful #1 catcher. Unfortunately for the Fish, Stallings’ production cratered on both sides of the ball.

The right-handed hitter posted a career-worst .223/.292/.292 line through 384 trips to the plate. His already modest power went backwards. Stallings managed just four home runs and posted his lowest hard contact rate (32%) since becoming a regular. That diminished contact quality also resulted in a .280 batting average on balls in play that was .025 points below the mark he carried between 2019-21. Stallings’ strike zone discipline remained intact; he made contact and continued to generally lay off pitches outside the zone. He just simply didn’t do enough damage on batted balls to make an offensive impact.

That offensive drop-off wouldn’t have been quite so alarming if it hadn’t been paired with a bizarre dip in Stallings’ pitch framing numbers. Statcast graded him as seven runs below average in that regard, his first subpar season after three consecutive years of plus marks. Stallings remarkably posted another flawless year with regards to avoid passed balls but didn’t have his typical level of success stealing strikes on the edges of the zone.

Teams also took more advantage of his middling arm strength than they had in years past. No catcher was behind the plate for more successful stolen bases than Stallings, who saw opponents swipe 61 bags in 75 attempts (an excellent 81.3% success rate). Stolen bases aren’t solely on the catcher — pitchers’ times to the plate plays a significant role — but Statcast rated Stallings’ arm strength below par.

That could take on added importance in 2023. MLB is introducing rules such as the limitation on pickoff attempts and larger bases designed to incentivize base-stealing. Stallings seems unlikely to develop above-average arm strength in his age-33 season. Keeping the running game in check figures to be a challenge yet again, which places a greater emphasis on Stallings to return to peak form in the areas of his game that have historically been his strength.

He’ll need to more closely approximate his offensive production and framing marks from his final couple seasons in Pittsburgh to serve as the caliber of upgrade Miami believed they were getting 12 months ago. To his credit, Stallings had a decent second half offensively after a terrible start to the year, though he’ll need to sustain that over a full season this time around.

General manager Kim Ng and her staff seem bullish on his chances of righting the ship. There was little indication Miami seriously looked outside the organization for catching help this offseason. They avoided arbitration with Stallings, signing him for $3.35MM. He presumably heads into Spring Training atop the depth chart for a second time, though he could face some internal pressure if he starts the season slowly.

26-year-old Nick Fortes has put himself on the radar after a quietly effective rookie season. The Ole Miss product made a 14-game cameo at the tail end of the 2021 campaign. Last season was his first extended MLB action, and Fortes impressed. He hit .230/.304/.392 with nine home runs and a modest 18.8% strikeout rate over 240 trips to the plate. Fortes demonstrated both above-average contact skills and solid batted ball metrics, showing the potential to be an interesting offensive option.

Fortes logged 441 innings behind the plate last season, rating fairly well in the eyes of public defensive metrics. Statcast pegged him as a roughly average pitch framer with above-average arm strength. Fortes threw out 28.6% of base-stealers, a solid clip. After committing four passed balls in just 44 innings in 2021, he was charged with only one passed ball last season. It was a solid all-around showing that earned the former fourth-rounder a near equal split in playing time with Stallings from the All-Star Break onwards. Still, with just 86 career games under his belt, he’ll need to prove he can continue performing over a larger sample.

The duo will continue jostling for playing time this season. Stallings and Fortes are the only two catchers on the 40-man roster, with Miami dealing Payton Henry to Milwaukee at the start of the offseason. Austin Allen is in camp as a non-roster invitee but figures to open the year in Triple-A Jacksonville barring injury. How to allocate playing time behind the dish is one of the bigger questions for first-year manager Skip Schumaker. Stallings figures to get the lion’s share of time early in hopes of a rebound, though it remains to be seen how long the leash would be if he struggles after Fortes’ solid 2022 campaign.

Offseason In Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

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The rebuilding Pirates had a fairly similar offseason to the one they had a year ago. The trade chatter for Bryan Reynolds continued, but nothing came to fruition. In the end, it was another winter of bringing aboard veterans on short-term deals to fill out the young and inexperienced roster. Those vets will hopefully make the team a bit better, mentor the youngsters and perhaps turn into trade chips by midseason. The most notable of those new additions is actually a familiar face, with the Bucs bringing back a franchise icon who’s been away for a few years.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $30.375MM
Total spending: $30.375MM

Option Decisions

  • None

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signees

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Though it was a fairly modest offseason for the Bucs when comparing them to other clubs, this was on the aggressive side when compared to their own recent offseasons. The club only spent $16MM last offseason and $7.25MM in the previous two combined. Though their $30.375MM this winter isn’t exactly a spending spree compared to win-now clubs like the Mets or Padres, it was technically more than they themselves have spent in quite some time.

Among the players brought in to bolster the roster, the one that Pittsburgh fans are surely the most excited about is Andrew McCutchen. The 36-year-old spent the best years of his career as a Pirate, having been drafted by them in 2005 and playing for the big league club from 2009 to 2017. That tenure included winning 2013 NL MVP, five All-Star selections and playoff berths in three straight years from 2013-2015, their only postseason trips in the last 30 years.

Though many of the club’s acquisitions will be viewed as future trade candidates, it seems McCutchen won’t be in the same bucket. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported last month that the idea is for McCutchen to stay in Pittsburgh for the rest of his career. It’s possible that a situation arises where a World Series contender wants him and gives the team a call, but Mackey’s reporting indicates that a trade will only come to fruition if Cutch wants to take the opportunity to get a ring.

The other new faces will be a different story. The past two seasons have seen the Pirates add a veteran arm to their starting rotation and flip them at the deadline for prospects. It was Tyler Anderson in 2021 and José Quintana last year. For 2023, both Rich Hill and Vince Velasquez have been signed to one-year deals and each could potentially follow the same path as Anderson and Quintana. Hill is about to turn 43 years old but still made 26 starts last year with a 4.27 ERA. Velasquez has occasionally seemed on the verge of establishing himself as a solid major league starter, but he’s also faltered and been moved to the bullpen on multiple occasions.

The bullpen saw one similar addition in Jarlín García. He’s been with the Giants the past three years, posting solid results. From 2020 to 2022, he made 135 appearances with a 2.84 ERA, 22.5% strikeout rate, 7.0% walk rate and 40.5% ground ball rate. He’s probably not quite as good as that ERA would indicate, given his .246 BABIP in that time, but he still registered a 3.90 FIP and 3.76 SIERA. Nonetheless, the Giants non-tendered him instead of paying him a projected $2.4MM arbitration salary, and the Pirates swooped in to give him $2.5MM. Like Hill and Velasquez, he could find himself on the trade block this summer if he’s pitching well, though the Bucs have a club option for 2024 and could keep him around for another season.

The other new face for the bullpen will be Jose Hernandez, but like all Rule 5 picks, he’ll have to justify his roster spot or else be put on waivers and then offered back to his original club. The 25-year-old split last year between High-A and Double-A in the Dodgers’ system, posting a 3.32 ERA in 59 2/3 innings with a 27.8% strikeout rate but a 10.1% walk rate.

On the position player side of things, in addition to McCutchen, the club brought in Ji-Man Choi, Carlos Santana and Austin Hedges. Choi is in his final arbitration year and will be a free agent at season’s end, while Santana and Hedges both signed one-year deals. Catcher and first base were both quite unsettled for the club last year, as Roberto Pérez went down with an early injury and the  Yoshi Tsutsugo gamble didn’t pay off.

Hedges doesn’t hit much but has long been considered one of the best defensive catchers in the league, while Santana and Choi give the club a couple of fairly steady veterans for their first base and designated hitter slots. Like the pitching acquisitions, any of these names could be on the move in the summer if the club wants to make room for younger players. The same could be said for veterans on minor league deals like Kevin Plawecki, Tyler Chatwood or Tyler Heineman, should they crack the roster at some point.

Unsurprisingly, it seems it will be another season about the potential young core for the rebuilding Pirates. Hill and Velasquez are fine additions, but the main focus in the rotation will be on more controllable players. Both Mitch Keller and JT Brubaker showed some encouraging results last year and can be controlled through the 2025 season. Roansy Contreras and Luis Ortiz have also had some exciting results and have yet to reach a year of service time, meaning they’re not slated to reach free agency until after 2028 at the earliest. There are also yet-to-debut prospects like Quinn Priester, Mike Burrows, Jared Jones, Kyle Nicolas, among others. The bullpen will be led by David Bednar, who seems to have established himself as a lock-down closer and isn’t slated for free agency until after the 2026 campaign.

Hedges should be a fine steward of those young arms, but he will also likely be tasked with ushering in young catching prospects like Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis. McCutchen, Santana and Choi will join a position player mix of youngsters who are still developing, such as Oneil Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Ji Hwan Bae, Jack Suwinski, Rodolfo Castro and Calvin Mitchell. That group will be looking to cement themselves before another wave of prospects arrives, one that includes Termarr Johnson, Nick Gonzales, Jared Triolo and Liover Peguero. Recent acquisition Connor Joe can jump into that mix as well.

The 2023 season, and perhaps beyond, will help the club examine key questions about that group of young players. Cruz has elite tools,, but can he cut down his strikeouts and prove himself a viable shortstop? Hayes is an elite defender at third, but can he take a step forward at the plate? Which of Rodriguez or Davis will step up as the catcher of the future? Could it be both, in a time-share setting? Can any of the others emerge as true everyday options, or are they more role players?

Hovering over all of this is the great unanswered Bryan Reynolds question. He’s hit 74 home runs over the past four seasons and cemented himself as an above-average outfielder in the major leagues. He’s now down to three years of club control, seeming to put the club in a position where they have to make a move one way or another. They could certainly return to contention in that timeframe, but it would be wise to figure out a way to better align him with their future window of contention. That means either giving him an extension that keeps him around longer or trading him for younger and more controllable players.

That has put Reynolds in trade rumors for quite some time, though the club has reportedly set a sky-high asking price. The fact that no deal has come together suggests that they are willing to stick to it. The extension talks didn’t seem to gain much traction this offseason either, as the player and the club were reportedly about $50MM apart in those discussions. That led to Reynolds requesting a trade, though that apparently did nothing to nudge the front office any closer to striking a deal. Reynolds recently stated that he’s still open to an extension, as long as it’s a fair deal, but there’s been nothing to suggest anything is particularly close on that front. The two sides could well revisit those talks later this spring, but a $50MM gap is a particularly large chasm to bridge for a club with the Pirates’ annual payroll levels.

Perhaps the upcoming campaign will dictate how the club proceeds. If the Pirates can have a season similar to the Orioles last year and suddenly seem like the rebuild is over, maybe they decide to plunk down some money and keep Reynolds around. Then again, by that point, the asking price may be even higher. Conversely, if they have a year like the 2022 Royals where there’s not as much development as hoped, perhaps they’ll choose a different path and more earnestly look to move Reynolds as one of the final pieces of business in their current rebuilding effort. There’s lots of exciting young talent in the system and reasons to feel good about the future, but still many questions to be answered.

How would you grade the Pirates’ offseason? (Link to poll)

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Pirates-centric live chat on Feb. 23. Click here to read the transcript.

The MLB Trade Rumors Arbitration Model Had Its Best Year Ever

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With the last of the arbitration hearings officially in the books, we can now officially report that this was the most accurate year that the MLB Trade Rumors Arbitration Model has ever had. The model estimated salaries within ten percent of salaries for 69% of cases – breaking the previous record of 65% and well above the 54% low point just three years ago.

When I began working on this model way back in 2011, I defined success based on how often my model was within ten percent of the actual arbitration salary for all arbitration-eligible players who signed one-year deals. The initial goal was to be within ten percent for half of such cases. For the 2011-12 arbitration season, the model was within ten percent on 55% of all cases. The model has consistently been in that range or higher, peaking at 65% in the 2014-15 arbitration season, while only dipping below it once with 54% in 2019-20. It averaged 58% over its first nine years. 

Over that time, I repeatedly ran tests on the model, considered new modeling techniques, and had discussions with agents and others with experience in the arbitration space about how to improve the model. There were steps forward, although after picking each piece of low-hanging fruit, the gains were smaller. Ultimately, I pivoted to a focus on more accurate and cleaner data. This was initially something that Bryan Grosnick helped with behind the scenes, and Darragh McDonald took over last year. They both helped tremendously. 

One important process change that I incorporated into model updates in recent years is checking which players would have been the “biggest misses” after updating the model. In many cases, the salaries that “missed” were not reflective of the actual salaries earned. Yet the model was awkwardly contorting itself to fit those purported outcomes. Some of the process of improving data quality was just a matter of finding typos. But in many cases, it was about correctly identifying the “true” arbitration salary a player received. When players avoid arbitration via settlement, they often get performance bonuses, signing bonuses, options for future years, or multi-year agreements. These cases are incorporated into the modeling process where appropriate, but sometimes the “salary” a player literally earned was not really intended to account for the actual arbitration award he would have gotten at a hearing. Cleaning the data involved some subjectivity, but it was designed to better record the intended salary that teams and agents were treating as a baseline when they negotiated more complicated agreements.

More tedious updates to data accuracy are not the most thrilling part of model building. Coming up with creative mathematical methods or just innovative variables to utilize is a more rewarding intellectual exercise for the researcher. But the truth is that better data is often more important than a slightly smarter model. I will continue to evolve the model based on the relevant statistics and factors utilized in the arbitration process, but in recent years I ultimately improved the model more with better data without structuring it differently.

As a result, the model should be more accurate in future years than it has been in the past. See below for a graph showing the performance of the model each year.

The Rangers’ Multi-Inning Relief Weapon

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The Rangers spent most of last year out of playoff contention, in significant part due to an inability to win close games. Texas finished 26 games under .500 despite a relatively modest -36 run differential, with a staggering 15-35 record in one-run contests dooming any chance they had of sticking around the periphery of the Wild Card race.

Any time a team is that bad in close games, it’s safe to assume they were victimized by a lack of clutch hitting. That was true of Texas, although their struggles also reflected a middling relief corps. Ranger relievers finished 21st in strikeout/walk rate differential and tied for sixth in blown saves (28). Nevertheless, the Rangers shied away from any splashy additions to the bullpen this winter. They instead poured virtually all their resources into completely overhauling the starting rotation.

That’s a strong show of faith in the club’s internal bullpen options. It’s a relatively young group but one that has a few players coming off strong 2022 seasons. Hard-throwing righties José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández returned from Tommy John rehabs to impress down the stretch. Meanwhile, left-hander Brock Burke quietly put forth an excellent year as a multi-inning weapon.

Burke underwent a significant surgery of his own a few years back. He’d debuted in the big leagues with six unsuccessful starts in 2019 and required a procedure to fix a labrum tear in his throwing shoulder the ensuing offseason. Burke would’ve missed the entire ’20 season regardless of whether a full schedule were played. He returned to health in 2021 but spent the whole year on optional assignment to Triple-A Round Rock.

When he took the mound for his 2022 debut on April 10, it represented his first big league outing in two and a half years. The Rangers unsurprisingly deployed him in mostly low-stakes innings for the season’s first month. After posting a 20:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio through the end of April, Burke increasingly found himself in more meaningful game states. He’d remain a consistent weapon throughout the year, posting an ERA below 4.00 in each month — including a sub-3.00 mark for the first four months of the season.

Called upon 52 times, Burke soaked up an MLB-leading 82 1/3 innings of relief. No reliever faced more than the 328 batters that stepped in against him. Despite frequently going into a second inning, Burke remained very productive on a per-batter basis. He held opponents to a putrid .211/.275/.356 line, striking out an above-average 27.4% of batters faced with a solid 7.3% walk rate. He compiled a 1.97 ERA. Estimators like FIP and SIERA felt his production was more akin to that of a low-3.00’s ERA hurler, but even regression to that level would leave Burke as a quality high-leverage arm.

Now 26, Burke had been a solid prospect prior to his shoulder injury. Acquired from the Rays in the three-team deal that sent Jurickson Profar to Oakland over the 2018-19 offseason, he appeared among Texas’ top 30 farmhands at Baseball America over his first two years in the organization. Evaluators regarded him as a potential back-of-the-rotation starter, though his injury threw that off course. Burke told reporters (including Levi Weaver of the Athletic) over the offseason he was hopeful of getting another crack in the rotation. The Rangers’ activity in that regard rules that out, at least to open the year, and the former third-round draftee added he was content with whatever role he’s assigned.

The Rangers seem poised to count on him even more heavily out of the bullpen. General manager Chris Young left open the possibility of Burke getting some ninth-inning work for the first time in his career, though he suggested the multi-inning fireman role might be more valuable for first-year skipper Bruce Bochy. Young implied the team could look to get Burke as many as 100 innings of relief in 2023, a tally only once reached in MLB over the past decade (by then-Rays southpaw Ryan Yarbrough, who frequently operated as a bulk pitcher behind an opener, in 2018).

Whatever the role, it’s clear Burke has put himself among Texas’ most important relievers. The club watched Matt Moore sign with the division-rival Angels and lost Brett Martin for at least the bulk of the upcoming season to shoulder surgery. Taylor Hearn, John King and non-roster invitee Danny Duffy are still in the mix, but the Rangers’ left-handed bullpen contingent isn’t as strong as it was six months ago. Burke certainly won’t function in a lefty specialist capacity but is certain to get plenty of looks against opposing teams’ best hitters from either side of the dish. While that wasn’t the case at this time a year ago, he’s now entrenched in the bullpen after his breakout season.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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