- Luis Severino will not be taking the ball for the Yankees on Sunday, reports Bryan Hoch of mlb.com. The Bombers are still undecided as to who will start Wednesday’s Wild Card game against the A’s, but today’s decision seems to hint strongly at the most likely candidate.
Yankees Rumors
Yanks Notes: Sabathia, Bullpen
Yankees lefty C.C. Sabathia cost himself a $500K bonus during today’s matchup against the Rays after he was ejected for plunking catcher Jesus Sucre in retaliatory fashion. As Steve Gardner of the USA Today details, Sabathia’s contract included incentive bonuses in the amount of $500K for eclipsing each of the 155, 165, 175, and 185 inning plateaus. As it stood, Sabathia, who sat at 54 pitches in the 6th inning of game in which the Yankees led 11-0, was a near sure bet to hit the first mark, standing just six outs from the total at the time of the incident, though later he confessed ignorance regarding the matter in a soirée with reporters. The 38-year-old, who’s earned upwards of $250MM in his MLB career, turned in another solid campaign for the Bombers this season, comfortably outperforming his peripheral marks (4.22 FIP, 4.28 SIERA) for the third consecutive year on the way to 3.77 ERA, all while posting his highest strikeout rate since 2012. Sabathia has already expressed a desire to pitch next season, and figures to be in line for a similar (one year, $10MM) deal to the one he inked before the ’18 campaign, should he choose to continue.
- Marc Carig of the The Athletic dives deep into the Yankees bullpen and the manner in which it’s deployed in a fabulously detailed piece that’s unquestionably a must-read for all Pinstripe fanatics. The Yankee pen of ’18 ranks, per fWAR and K/9, as the best in baseball history, a fact that likely comes as little surprise to anyone who’s followed the incredible collection of talent assembled in the unit over the last few seasons. Notably, Carig also canvasses the depths to which the unit is influenced by new analytics, making particular mention of rookie manager Aaron Boone’s number-crunching preferences: Boone, it seems, has bucked convention by eschewing previous batter/pitcher history and platoon advantages in favor of new-wave proprietary data based primarily on pitch types, spin rates, and recent velocity totals while aiming to deploy the best possible arm for the situation. Though the Bombers have a firmly entrenched reputation as one of the league’s most data-hungry franchises, it no doubt helps to feature a cavalcade of relievers capable of setting down batters from both sides at almost any point throughout the game.
Yankees Notes: Sanchez, Didi
- Yankees skipper Aaron Boone acknowledged tonight that Gary Sanchez’s ongoing troubles with passed balls are a “concern” but left no doubt that Sanchez is expected to be the starter for the team in the postseason (Twitter link via the YES Network’s Jack Curry). Sanchez, 25, has an MLB-worst 17 passed balls this season despite catching just 631 innings heading into tonight’s game. The issue is hardly unique to 2018, either, as he led the league with 16 passed balls last year (in 881 innings). He’s also taken a step back in nearly all facets with his bat in 2018, hitting .181/.281/.393 through 365 PAs. Sanchez is still among baseball’s most powerful catchers and, to his credit, has improved his walk rate to a robust 11.8 percent this season.
- Sticking with the Yankees, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com writes that shortstop Didi Gregorius was cleared to resume baseball activities on Wednesday. Gregorius, who is dealing with a cartilage injury in his right wrist, is optimisitc about returning before the end of the regular season. Even if he doesn’t return before season’s end, Boone said that wouldn’t rule out a possible appearance in the AL Wild Card Game, though the manager generally spoke with caution rather than putting down a definitive timetable on Gregorius’ return.
Aaron Hicks Cleared Of Hamstring Strain
- On another playoff-related injury note, the Yankees received good news today from an MRI on Aaron Hicks’ hamstring. The outfielder has been cleared of a tear, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com was among those to tweet. Manager Aaron Boone still plans to rest Hicks for a few days. Certainly, with Didi Gregorius tearing cartilage in his wrist, the Yanks would like to avoid any more injuries leading up to the AL Wild Card game against Oakland. Hicks has proven himself an important, if undervalued piece of the Yankees outfield, hitting .247/.368/.465 on the year with a 15.8% walk rate and a career-high 26 dingers.
Past, Present & Future: American League Closer Turnover
By the end of the 2017 season, the list of pitchers closing out games for their respective teams included Matt Belisle, Alex Claudio, Juan Minaya and Mike Minor. Three of them were without a career save coming into the season—Belisle had five in 13 MLB seasons—and none had been expected to fill a significant late-inning bullpen role. By way of injuries, trades or ineffectiveness from those ahead of them on the depth chart, they were given a chance to record the final out in a close win and proved themselves capable.
Things haven’t changed much this year. Raise your hand if you thought Wily Peralta would have one save in 2018. He has 13! Of the 15 American League teams, only four currently have a closer situation that mirrors what they had on Opening Day. When it comes to closers, uncertainty is the only certainty. And that’s why Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman are Hall of Famers and the relief pitchers who will join them in Cooperstown in the future are few and far between.
Here’s a look back at each American League team’s closer situation on Opening Day versus where they are now and where they will be as they head into the offseason. (Click HERE to view the National League.)
[Related: MLB closer depth chart at Roster Resource]
Baltimore Orioles | Orioles Depth Chart
Opening Day 2018: Committee — Brad Brach, Darren O’Day, Mychal Givens
September 2018: Mychal Givens
Future Outlook: Brach got the majority of the committee’s save chances prior to Zach Britton reclaiming the job shortly after returning from the disabled list in late June. Soon after, Givens was the last man standing following a series of July trades (Brach to the Braves; Britton to the Yankees). O’Day, meanwhile, suffered a season-ending hamstring surgery and was later traded to Atlanta in a separate deal.
A valuable setup man for most of the past three seasons, Givens has done a fine job since taking over ninth-inning duties. In his last 19 appearances, he has a 2.18 ERA and eight saves in 10 chances. With so many holes to fill on the roster, upgrading at the closer position is probably low on the Orioles’ priority list. Givens, therefore, likely enters 2019 with the job — if he isn’t traded himself this offseason as the O’s continue their rebuilding efforts.
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Boston Red Sox | Red Sox Depth Chart
Opening Day 2018: Craig Kimbrel
September 2018: Craig Kimbrel
Future Outlook: Kimbrel, who recently became the fourth pitcher in MLB history to record at least 40 saves in five different seasons, has been a huge part of Boston’s historic season. As a free agent following the 2018 campaign, the 30-year-old will command a contract that rivals the highest-paid relievers in the game. Can the Red Sox afford to let him walk? Just in case he does, they’ll have to plan accordingly.
With Joe Kelly also set to become a free agent, Matt Barnes is the logical choice to inherit the closer’s gig. He’s earned the opportunity with a 3.28 ERA and 25 holds while serving as the primary setup man on the best team in baseball. The 28-year-old also has an impressive 13.9 K/9 in 60.1 innings of work, an increase from 10.7 K/9 in ’17 and 9.6 K/9 in ’16. The only question is whether a team capable of winning over 100 games will entrust the role to someone with two career saves. If Kimbrel signs elsewhere, it seems likely that the Sox would pursue alternatives in free agency and/or trades.
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Chicago White Sox | White Sox Depth Chart
Opening Day 2018: Joakim Soria
September 2018: Committee — Nate Jones, Jace Fry, Minaya, etc.
Future Outlook: Soria was as good as he’d been in years, posting a 2.56 ERA with 16 saves and 11.4 K/9 in 40 appearances. The White Sox cashed in by sending him to the Brewers for two pitching prospects in late July. Since then, they’ve handed off the closer’s job to a committee that included just about any relief pitcher on their active roster—seven different pitchers have recorded saves since the Soria trade.
The next step for the rebuilding White Sox is to put together a roster that can, at the very least, be a .500 team and potential playoff contender. Having a reliable closer would be an important part of that plan. Jones looks the part, but he’s missed most of the last two seasons recovering from elbow surgery and still might not be ready to take on the workload of a primary closer. A healthy Zack Burdi, the team’s first-round draft pick in 2016 and one time “closer of the future,” could also be in the mix at some point, though he spent 2018 recovering from Tommy John surgery. They’ll likely play it safe, however, and add at least one veteran with closing experience this offseason.
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Cleveland Indians | Indians Depth Chart
Opening Day 2018: Cody Allen
September 2018: Co-Closers – Allen and Brad Hand
Future Outlook: Allen has a lot of mileage on his arm, averaging 71 relief appearances per season since 2013, and it’s showed at times during the current season. With Andrew Miller on the disabled list and Allen’s ERA creeping up near 5.00, the Indians’ acquisition of Brad Hand from the Padres on July 19th was a no-brainer.
Not only has it helped them down the stretch—Hand has a 2.45 ERA and eight saves while Allen has 10 consecutive scoreless appearances—it also gives the Indians a very good closer option for 2019. Allen and Miller are both headed for free agency while the 28-year-old Hand is under contract through 2021. The job should be his moving forward.
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Detroit Tigers | Tigers Depth Chart
Opening Day 2018: Shane Greene
September 2018: Shane Greene
Future Outlook: With a 5.20 ERA and six blown saves in 37 chances, Greene is probably lucky to have held on to the job for the entire season. But on a rebuilding Tigers team, who is going to close out games for them is the least of their worries. With that said, Greene probably fits best as a setup man. Even if they don’t upgrade this offseason, All-Star Joe Jimenez (11.2 K/9, 22 holds, 3 saves, 2.88 FIP) could supplant Greene in 2019.
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Houston Astros | Astros Depth Chart
Opening Day 2018: Co-Closers – Chris Devenski and Ken Giles
September 2018: Roberto Osuna
Future Outlook: Despite a drop in strikeout rate—8.0 K/9 in ’18; 11.7 K/9 in ’17—Osuna has continued to perform at a high level amid abuse allegations that led to a 75-game suspension under MLB’s domestic abuse policy. The Astros still decided to acquire him in a trade with the Jays despite the ongoing investigation.
Barring any struggles during the team’s playoff run — he’s postseason eligible in spite of that suspension — or any further off-the-field troubles, the 23-year-old Osuna seems likely to enter 2019 as the Astros’ closer. He’s under club control through the 2020 season.
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Kansas City Royals | Royals Depth Chart
Opening Day 2018: Kelvin Herrera
September 2018: Wily Peralta
Future Outlook: Soon after Herrera was traded to Washington in mid-June, Peralta emerged from the closer committee to become one of the unlikeliest ninth-inning success stories of 2018. It hasn’t always been pretty, but the 29-year-old has 13 saves in 13 chances and a 9.5 K/9 rate.
After getting booted from the Brewers’ rotation last May, he had a disastrous 11-appearance stint as a relief pitcher (17 1/3 innings, 23 ER, 28 H, 15 BB) before getting designated for assignment in late July. He signed a Major League deal with Kansas City this offseason, only to be designated for assignment again and outrighted to Triple-A. He returned to the Majors one day before the Herrera trade and picked up his first MLB save eight days later.
Peralta has a $3MM club option in 2019, which could very well be exercised. Even if it’s not, he’s remain under team control for one more season via arbitration. While he’s been better than anyone could’ve anticipated in his current role, his 22 walks in 31 1/3 innings serve as a red flag that will likely keep the Royals from locking him into the job next season without some form of competition.
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Los Angeles Angels | Angels Depth Chart
Opening Day 2018: Keynan Middleton
September 2018: Ty Buttrey
Future Outlook: Blake Parker, who finished 2017 as the closer, picked up the team’s first save of 2018 after finishing last season in the role. But it was Middleton who got the call for the next six save chances, all successful, making it clear that he was manager Mike Scioscia’s preferred choice in the ninth inning. A few weeks later, however, Middleton had undergone season-ending Tommy John surgery and it was back to the drawing board for the Angels.
Parker got the majority of save chances with Middleton out. And as was the case in 2017, he got the job done with a 3.21 ERA and 13 saves in 16 chances from May 14th—the day after Middleton’s last game— through September 3rd. But Buttrey, acquired from the Red Sox in the July deal for Ian Kinsler, is getting a chance to show what he can do as of late. In six appearances from September 7th through September 18th, the 25-year-old tossed seven scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts and four saves. He has failed to convert his last two save chances, though.
Regardless, there probably wasn’t enough time for Buttrey to seal the job for 2019. He will be a candidate alongside Parker, though, unless the Angels acquire a closer this offseason.
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Minnesota Twins | Twins Depth Chart
Opening Day 2018: Fernando Rodney
September 2018: Trevor Hildenberger
Future Outlook: After saving 25 games and solidifying the ninth inning for Minnesota over the first four months of the season, Rodney was traded to Oakland in August. Ryan Pressly, who would’ve been the logical choice to succeed him, was traded to Houston in late July. A closer committee appeared likely, but Hildenberger has been the go-to guy with seven saves in eight chances since Rodney’s departure. Taylor Rogers, while serving mostly in a setup role, has not allowed a run over his last 23 2/3 innings while logging two saves and 11 holds over that span.
Between Hildenberger, Rogers, Addison Reed and Trevor May, who has five walks and 31 strikeouts in 23 innings in his first season since Tommy John surgery, the Twins have some decent late-inning options for 2019. It’s probably not enough to keep them away from the offseason closer’s market, though.
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New York Yankees | Yankees Depth Chart
Opening Day 2018: Aroldis Chapman
September 2018: Co-Closers – Zach Britton and Dellin Betances
Future Outlook: Chapman might not have enough time to reclaim the closer’s job before the end of the regular season—he returned from the disabled list last Wednesday—or even the playoffs for that matter. But there’s no reason to think a change is on the horizon in 2019. The 30-year-old lefty, who is 31-for-33 in save opportunities and is striking out 16.1 batters per nine innings, will be entering year three of a five-year, $85MM contract.
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Oakland Athletics | Athletics Depth Chart
Opening Day 2018: Blake Treinen
September 2018: Blake Treinen
Future Outlook: Treinen has been one of the breakout stars in 2018, saving 37 games while posting an 0.80 ERA and striking out 11.1 batters per nine innings for a playoff-bound A’s team. The 30-year-old is still under team control for two more seasons, although he’s in line for a significant raise from the $2.15MM he made in ’18. Barring injury, there’s no doubt that he’ll retain the job in 2019.
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Seattle Mariners | Mariners Depth Chart
Opening Day 2018: Edwin Diaz 
September 2018: Edwin Diaz
Future Outlook: No other closer, arguably, has contributed more to his team’s success than the 24-year-old Diaz, who has 14 more saves (56) than any other pitcher in baseball and 13 more save chances (60). The Mariners play a lot of close ballgames—they are 36-21 in one-run games—and Diaz rarely gives his opponent a chance in the ninth inning. He has held his opponent scoreless in 59 of his 71 appearances and hitless in 44. He also has 41 multi-strikeout games.
The 24-year-old is going to get paid once he reaches arbitration, although he could fall just short during the upcoming offseason. The Super Two cutoff has not fallen under 2.122 (two years, 122 days) since 2009. Diaz will be one day shy of that total.
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Tampa Bay Rays | Rays Depth Chart
Opening Day 2018: Alex Colome
September 2018: Co-Closers – Sergio Romo/Jose Alvarado
Future Outlook: When Colome was traded to Seattle on May 25th, the Rays were two games under .500 and 10 games out in the division. It’s not clear whether they were throwing in the towel or whether they just had enough confidence in Romo, who had 84 career saves coming into the season, and the remaining group of young arms. In any case, it’s worked out just fine.
Since the trade, the Rays are 64-44 with Romo as the primary closer (3.38 ERA, 23-for-28 in save chances) and Alvarado, a 23-year-old lefty, also playing an integral role (1.98 ERA, 7 saves). Not that you can count on the Rays to do anything conventional like name a closer prior to the season or at any point during the regular season, but Alvarez and the hard-throwing Diego Castillo would be the leading in-house candidates if they did. Tampa Bay could also look to bring Romo back into the fold.
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Texas Rangers | Rangers Depth Chart
Opening Day 2018: Keone Kela
September 2018: Jose Leclerc
Future Outlook: No relief pitcher has boosted their value more in the second half of the season than Leclerc, who spent the first four months in a setup role. Once Kela was traded to the Pirates on July 31st, it was the 24-year-old Leclerc’s chance to shine. It’s hard to imagine a more convincing way to show that he wouldn’t be relinquishing the job anytime soon.
Aside from converting each of his 11 save opportunities, Leclerc has allowed just two hits and six walks over 17 scoreless innings while striking out 28. The Rangers will look to bolster their bullpen this offseason, but finding a new closer isn’t likely to be on the agenda. Leclerc is controlled through 2022.
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Toronto Blue Jays | Blue Jays Depth Chart
Opening Day 2018: Roberto Osuna
September 2018: Ken Giles
Future Outlook: Despite being the primary closer on the World Champion Astros, it was clear that Giles was not trusted with the game on the line. The trade to Toronto in late July gave the 28-year-old a chance to re-establish himself, out of the spotlight, as a reliable late-inning reliever. So far, so good.
After a few shaky appearances to begin his Blue Jays tenure, Giles has settled into the closer’s role with 1.29 ERA over his past 15 appearances with 12 saves in 12 chances. It might not be enough to prevent the Jays from pursuing another option this winter, but Giles should at least be in the mix.
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POTENTIAL FREE-AGENT CLOSER OPTIONS
Cody Allen
Brad Brach
Zach Britton
Sean Doolittle (if $6MM club option is declined)
Jeurys Familia
Brad Brach
Zach Britton
Sean Doolittle (if $6MM club option is declined)
Jeurys Familia
Nate Jones (if $4.65MM club option is declined)
Joe Kelly
Craig Kimbrel
Ryan Madson
Andrew Miller
Joe Kelly
Craig Kimbrel
Ryan Madson
Andrew Miller
Fernando Rodney (if $4.25MM club option is declined)
Sergio Romo
Sergio Romo
Joakim Soria (if $10MM mutual option is declined)
Injury Notes: Morton, Gregorius, Marte, Valera
Astros hurler Charlie Morton departed from today’s contest against the Angels after pitching just one inning. As Brian McTaggart of MLB.com was among those to tweet, the cause for his exit was discomfort in his right shoulder. Shoulder inflammation was what sent Morton to the DL earlier this season, and the situation is particularly concerning considering Morton was already pitching on seven days’ rest. We’ll await further news from Houston’s camp on Morton’s situation, but needless to say, this is an unfortunate development for a team hoping to begin its title defense in under two weeks. Morton’s been a force for the Astros this season, posting a 3.15 ERA with 195 strikeouts in just 163 innings, and they can scarce stand to lose him for any stretch of the playoffs with Lance McCullers Jr.’s ability to pitch deep into games still an uncertainty. [UPDATE: A.J. Hinch told McTaggart and other reporters that Morton was only supposed to throw three or four innings, and was removed for precautionary reasons after Morton’s velocity dropped. The righty is still expected to make a start next weekend against the Orioles.]
A few more unfortunate injury developments from around baseball…
- Another AL playoff team will be white-knuckling it today, as Yankees manager Aaron Boone announced that Didi Gregorius tore cartilage in his wrist on a slide home yesterday and may not return this season (h/t Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). He’s since received a cortisone injection, and while there’s no definitive word on his status for October, the news is ominous and unwelcome to a Yankees ballclub that would definitely like to be at full strength as they attempt to secure home field advantage over the A’s in a return to the one-game Wild Card playoff.
- Add Orioles infielder Breyvic Valera to the list of players whose status for the season’s final weeks is in doubt. X-rays showed a fracture of the second metacarpal in his left index finger, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Valera was one of five players to join the Orioles as a component of the trade that sent Manny Machado to the Dodgers. He’s collected nine hits (all singles) in 38 plate appearances since coming to Baltimore, chipping in a stolen base along the way.
- Pirates outfielder Starling Marte departed today’s game with left calf tightness. The two-time Gold Glove award winner has hit .277/.322/.452 with 19 homers and 33 steals in 576 plate appearances in 2018, and while the Pirates were eliminated from playoff contention with a loss in that game, they’ll surely be hoping the injury to Marte isn’t serious. Needless to say, he’s a vital component in their contention plans for the 2019 season, and as we await further word on the details, the Pittsburgh fan base will surely be hoping that a late-season calf issue doesn’t disrupt that.
Latest On Futures Of Andrew McCutchen, Brett Gardner
In Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks, the Yankees already have a high-end starting outfield under control for 2019. But they’ll have more decisions to make in that area this offseason, specifically with veterans Andrew McCutchen and Brett Gardner. The club would “like to” retain McCutchen, a pending free agent, if his asking price is “reasonable,” Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes. Meanwhile, the Yankees are “likely” to decline Gardner’s $12.5MM club option in favor of a $2MM buyout, according to Cafardo.
Having been acquired from the Giants on Aug. 31, McCutchen is just over three weeks into his tenure in the Bronx. The sample size is clearly limited, then, though the well-respected 31-year-old has delivered during his short Yankees career. Across 80 plate appearances with the Bombers, McCutchen has slashed .253/.425/.492 with four home runs and more walks (17) than strikeouts (15). Between San Francisco and New York, the right-handed McCutchen has batted .253/.366/.423 with 19 HRs in 648 trips to the plate, giving him a quality wRC+ of 119. The longtime Pirate has been an above-average offensive contributor every year of his career, which began in 2009, by wRC+.
Defensively, while McCutchen took significant steps backward as a center fielder from 2016-17, he has drawn somewhat better reviews in the corner this year. McCutchen has seen most of his action as a right fielder in 2018 and accounted for two Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-0.1 Ultimate Zone Rating in 1,271 2/3 innings, though Statcast’s Outs Above Average (minus-10) ranks him among the game’s worst fielders in the grass. Still, thanks in large part to his offensive prowess, McCutchen has totaled 2.5 fWAR and 2.7 rWAR, no doubt making him a useful player even if he’s not the MVP-level performer he was in his halcyon days.
Gardner, meanwhile, has been similarly valuable by wins above replacement, as he has accrued 2.3 fWAR and 2.8 rWAR in 583 PAs. However, the 35-year-old’s amid a difficult second half in which he has posted a meager .209/.290/.304 line (63 wRC+), and it has been a tough season in general versus southpaws for the left-handed Gardner – who has only managed a .641 OPS against them. All told, Gardner has batted a below-average .237/.325/.368 (90 wRC+) with 12 homers this season, though the speedster has still succeeded on 15 of 17 stolen base attempts and held his own in the outfield, where he has picked up 13 DRS, a 6.5 UZR and minus-one OAA. Despite his plus defense, Gardner’s offensive woes have relegated him to a bench role of late, as he has been in New York’s starting lineup just once this week.
Because of his track record as a well-rounded player and an esteemed clubhouse presence, the Yankees may be able to move Gardner via trade in the offseason if they’re against retaining him for another year. He does have 10-and-5 rights, however, and would be able to veto any potential move. If New York does cut ties with Gardner, though, it would mean saying goodbye to its longest-tenured player. A third-round pick of the Yankees in 2005, Gardner debuted in pinstripes in 2008 and has since accumulated 32.6 fWAR and 37.6 rWAR in 5,419 PAs, making him one of the most accomplished outfielders in the franchise’s storied history.
With the offseason over a month from beginning in earnest, the Yankees’ Brian Cashman-led brain trust still has a fair amount of time to decide on the futures of McCutchen and Gardner. And with the Yankees set to earn a wild-card berth this year, both McCutchen or Gardner could have more time to influence New York’s winter plans, depending on how they perform and how far the team advances in the playoffs. But with Judge, Stanton, Hicks and 2018 injury cases Clint Frazier and Jacoby Ellsbury among the Yankees’ outfield group for next season, it’ll be a surprise if they keep both McCutchen and Gardner.
AL East Notes: Sabathia, Red Sox Bullpen, Second Basemen
Per a tweet from Marc Carig of The Athletic, Yankees lefty CC Sabathia has decided to play next year. Though he’d indicated early on in the season that he might retire under certain circumstances, more recent statements from Sabathia had suggested he’d like to play another season. Most notably, he’d said he was taking a start-to-start approach to see how he felt, as his ability to pitch in 2019 would probably be contingent upon the health of his troublesome knee. Sabathia has continued to be a useful pitcher for the Yankees; across the past two seasons he’s taken the mound for 55 starts while posting a serviceable 3.73 ERA. There have been some small signs of decline, such as his dwindling innings per start figures across the past three seasons (Sabathia’s only averaged 5.28 innings across his 28 starts so far in 2018), but it seems reasonable to think that even if the Yankees decided not to bring him back, some team would probably be willing to pay for his services next year. That’s notable, considering Carig’s mention that Sabathia intends to play “even if it means signing with a team other than the Yankees.”
Now for a pair of notes related to the Yankees’ chief AL East rivals…
- In his latest piece for The Athletic, Eno Sarris takes a deep dive into the statistics in order to answer an interesting question: does Dave Dombrowski have a bullpen problem? Dombrowski, of course, has a track record of success wherever he’s gone throughout the course of his lengthy career (and indeed has helped this year’s Boston team to a stunningly successful campaign). But whether by shortcomings or simply coincidence, the current Red Sox and former Tigers GM has had to answer for poor bullpen production from both of those teams. Notably, Sarris points out that Boston’s bullpen ranks in the bottom 20% of all MLB teams since the club did not acquire a reliever at the August deadline. Of course, it should be noted that one of his first moves as the club’s GM was to acquire Craig Kimbrel, who’s been a fantastic success. And it’s not as though Dombrowski hasn’t made other key moves in the past couple of years to acquire bullpen help; Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg were headline acquisitions but simply haven’t worked out as fans may have hoped. Overall, Sarris’ piece is quite interesting, and comes with the added benefit of a player-by-player breakdown of the club’s relief corps.
- Also for The Athletic, Chad Jennings writes about how three infielders in the Red Sox organization have helped shape expectations about second basemen. Brandon Phillips, Ian Kinsler and Dustin Pedroia have all enjoyed paramount success throughout their careers. “We’re all different in our own ways,” Phillips said. “We’re all productive, and the way we approach the game, we all went out there, and we swung that bat. That’s what we do. We swung the bat.” The piece provides some entertaining insight into the pasts of these three players, and is well worth a read in its entirety, particularly for Red Sox fans.
Chapman Returns, Will Be Eased Into Closing Games
- The Yankees activated Aroldis Chapman from the 10-day disabled list earlier today, but Dan Martin of the New York Post writes that he’ll be eased back into the closer’s role as the Yanks try to be mindful of the knee issues that have slowed him in 2018. “We want to get him back in the mix,” said manager Aaron Boone. “…and in a regular role sooner than later, but we also want to make sure we are using him in big spots here down the stretch so he is firing on all cylinders as we head into October.” With Chapman, Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez all back from the disabled list, the Yankees are more or less at full strength, but they’re still likely to need to get through an upstart Athletics club the Wild Card game in order to orchestrate a return to the American League Division Series.
The Top Minor League Performers Of 2018
Over at Roster Resource, I rank Minor Leaguers throughout the regular season using a formula that takes into account several statistics with age and level serving as important factors in how they are weighed. These are not prospect rankings!
This is how it works:
- Hitters are mostly rated by total hits, outs, extra-base hits, walks, strikeouts and stolen bases.
- Pitchers are mostly rated by strikeouts, walks, earned runs, home runs and hits allowed per inning.
- A few counting stats are included (IP, plate appearances, runs, RBI) to ensure that the players atop the list played a majority of the season.
- The younger the player and the higher the level, the more weight each category is given. Therefore, a 19-year-old with an identical stat line as a 25-year-old at the same level will be ranked much higher. If a 23-year-old in Triple-A puts up an identical stat line as a 23-year-old in High-A, the player in Triple-A would be ranked much higher.
A player’s potential does not factor in to where they are ranked. If you’re wondering why a certain prospect who is rated highly by experts isn’t on the list, it’s likely because they missed time due to injury (see Victor Robles or Nick Senzel), MLB promotion (Juan Soto) or just weren’t productive enough. While there are plenty of recognizable names throughout the MiLB Power Rankings Top 200 list, it’s also full of players who were relatively unknown prior to the season and have seen their stock rise significantly due to their performance. Here’s a closer look at the Top 20.
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, Toronto Blue Jays | Blue Jays Depth Chart
Guerrero probably deserved to start his MLB career sometime between the debuts of NL Rookie of the Year candidates Ronald Acuña Jr. (April 25th) and Juan Soto (May 20th). All things being equal, that would’ve been the case.
But his call-up was delayed, mostly because third baseman Josh Donaldson was healthy in May and designated hitter Kendrys Morales was being given every opportunity to break out of an early season slump. As Guerrero’s path to regular playing time was becoming clearer, he suffered a knee injury in early June that kept him out of action for a month. When he returned, the Jays’ playoff chances had dwindled. Instead of adding him to the 40-man roster and starting his service time clock, they chose to delay his MLB debut until 2019.
You can hate the rule, but I’m certain Jays fans would rather have Guerrero under team control in 2025 as opposed to having him on the team for a few meaningless months in 2018 and headed for free agency after the 2024 season. And maybe it’s just me, but I kind of enjoy seeing what kind of numbers a player can put up when he’s way too good for his competition. And all this 19-year-old kid did was slash .381/.437/.636 with 20 HR, 29 2B, 37 BB, 38 K in 408 plate appearances, mostly between Triple-A and Double-A (he had 14 PAs during a rehab stint in the low minors). Thanks for providing us with that beautiful stat line, Vlad Jr.
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2. Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros | Astros Depth Chart
Despite a slow start—he had 21 hits in his first 83 Triple-A at-bats with one homer and 20 strikeouts— the 21-year-old Tucker showed why the World Champions were willing to give him a chance to take their starting left field job and run with it in July.
Tucker wasn’t quite ready for the Big Leagues—he was 8-for-52 in two separate MLB stints prior to a recent third call-up—but his stock hasn’t dropped one bit after slashing .332/.400/.590 with 24 homers, 27 doubles and 20 stolen bases over 465 plate appearances in his first season at the Triple-A level.
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3. Luis Rengifo, SS, Los Angeles Angels | Angels Depth Chart
A 21-year-old shortstop just finished a Minor League season with 50 extra-base hits (7 HR, 30 2B, 13 3B), 41 stolen bases, as many walks as strikeouts (75 of each) and a .299/.399/.452 slash line. If the name Luis Rengifo doesn’t ring a bell, you’re probably not alone. He kind of came out of nowhere.
The Mariners traded him to the Rays last August in a deal for Mike Marjama and Ryan Garton. Nine months later, the Rays shipped him to the Angels as the PTBNL in the deal for C.J. Cron. Based on those two trades, I can say without hesitation that the Mariners and Rays did not think Rengifo was this good. Not even close.
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4. Nathaniel Lowe, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays | Rays Depth Chart
Lowe’s breakout season mirrors Juan Soto’s in one way: They both posted an OPS above 1.000 at two different levels before a promotion to a third. Soto’s third stop was in Double-A, and it was a very short stint before heading to the Majors. After destroying High-A and Double-A pitching, Lowe’s final stop of 2018 was Triple-A, where he finally cooled off.
Still, the 23-year-old has put himself squarely on the Rays’ radar. After homering just 11 times in his first 757 plate appearances, all in the low minors, Lowe broke out with 27 homers and 32 doubles in 555 plate appearances in 2018. His overall .330/.416/.568 slash was exceptional.
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5. Alex Kirilloff, OF, Minnesota Twins | Twins Depth Chart
We’re four seasons into the Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano era—both debuted during the 2015 season—and we can’t say for certain whether either player will even be penciled into the regular lineup in 2019. They could be still turn out to be perennial All-Stars someday. But you can’t blame Twins fans if they temper their expectations for the next great hitting star to come up through their farm system. And yet, that might be difficult with Kirilloff, a first-round draft pick in ’16, and last year’s No. 1 overall pick, Royce Lewis, after the year each of them just had. Both are moving up the ladder quickly.
The 20-year-old Kirilloff, who missed all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery, was a hitting machine in his first full professional season. After slashing .333/.391/.607 with 13 homers in 65 games with Low-A Cedar Rapids, he hit .362 with seven homers and 24 doubles in 65 games with High-A Fort Myers. He also had 11 hits in the playoffs, including a 5-hit performance on September 5th.
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6. Bo Bichette, SS, Toronto Blue Jays | Blue Jays Depth Chart
All Bichette did during his age-20 season was hit 43 doubles and steal 32 bases while manning shortstop for the New Hampshire Fisher Cats, the 2018 Eastern League Champions. It’s unlikely that he’ll join Vlad Jr. in the Majors early next season, but he might not be too far behind.
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7. Peter Alonso, 1B, New York Mets | Mets Depth Chart
Alonso’s monster season (.975 OPS, 36 HR, 31 2B, 119 RBI between AAA/AA) ended in disappointment when he was passed over for a September promotion. As was the case with Vlad Jr., it didn’t make much sense to start his service time clock and fill a valuable 40-man spot during the offseason—neither Guerrero or Alonso have to be protected from the next Rule 5 draft—while the team is playing meaningless games. The 23-year-old Alonso did establish, however, that he is the Mets’ first baseman of the very near future, and they’ll plan accordingly during the upcoming offseason.
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8. Touki Toussaint, SP, Atlanta Braves | Braves Depth Chart
As tough as it will be to crack the Braves’ rotation in the coming years, the 22-year-old Toussaint has put himself in position to play a significant role in 2019 after posting a 2.38 ERA and 10.8 K/9 in 24 starts between Triple-A and Double-A. He’s also starting meaningful MLB games down the stretch as the Braves try to seal their first division title since 2013. After spending last October in the Arizona Fall League, where he followed up an underwhelming 2017 season by allowing 10 earned runs in 8 2/3 innings, he could find himself on the Braves’ playoff roster.
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9. Vidal Brujan, 2B, Tampa Bay Rays | Rays Depth Chart
The highest-ranked player to spend the entire season in Low-A, the 20-year-old Brujan slashed .320/.403/.459 while stealing 55 bases in his first crack at a full season league (27 games in High-A; 95 games in Low-A). He’ll still be overshadowed a bit in a deep Tampa Bay farm system that includes two of the best young prospects in the game, Wander Franco and Jesus Sanchez, but it’s hard to ignore such a rare combination of speed and on-base ability displayed by a switch-hitting middle infielder.
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10. Michael King, SP, New York Yankees | Yankees Depth Chart
The Yankees’ offseason trade that sent two MLB-ready players, Garrett Cooper and Caleb Smith, to the Marlins cleared a pair of 40-man roster spots prior to the Rule 5 draft and brought back $250K in international bonus pool money. They also received King, who—whether anyone expected it or not—was about to have a breakout season.
After posting a 3.14 ERA with a 6.4 K/9 over 149 innings in Low-A in his age-22 season, numbers that typically indicate “possible future back-of-the-rotation workhorse,” he looks to be much more than that after his 2018 performance. In 161 1/3 innings across Triple-A, Double-A and High-A, King posted a 1.79 ERA, 0.911 WHIP and 8.5 K/9. He was at his best once he reached Triple-A, posting a 1.15 ERA with only 20 hits and six walks allowed over 39 innings.
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11. Taylor Widener, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks | Diamondbacks Depth Chart
Unlike the trade to acquire King, the Yankees appear to have gotten the short end of the stick in a three-team, seven-player offseason deal with Arizona and Tampa Bay. They traded away Nick Solak to the Rays and Widener to the Diamondbacks in exchange for Brandon Drury, who was supposed to fill a short-term need for infield depth.
While Drury was a bust in New York—he had nine hits in 51 at-bats before being traded to Toronto in a July deal for J.A. Happ—Solak, a second baseman/outfielder, put up terrific numbers in Double-A (.834 OPS, 19 HR, 21 SB) and Widener has emerged as one of the better pitching prospects in the game. The 23-year-old right-hander posted a 2.75 ERA, 2.8 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 over 137 1/6 innings with Double-A Jackson.
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12. Josh Naylor, 1B/OF, San Diego Padres | Padres Depth Chart
The offseason signing of first baseman Eric Hosmer certainly didn’t bode well for Naylor’s future with the Padres. Whether he had an MLB future at all, however, was already in question. First base prospects can’t just be good hitters. They need to mash, which is far from what Naylor did in 2017 (.761 OPS, 10 HR between Double-A and High-A). But a 20-year-old holding his own in Double-A is still interesting, nevertheless. So it was worth paying attention when he hit .379 with seven homers, five doubles, 13 walks and 12 strikeouts in April. He also spent most of his time in left field in 2018, adding a bit of versatility to his game.
Although April was his best month, by far, he still finished with an impressive .297/.383/.447 slash line. He’ll enter 2019 as a 21-year-old in Triple-A who has flashed some power (17 HR, 22 2B in 574 plate appearances) and above-average plate discipline (64 BB, 69 K).
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13. Eloy Jimenez, OF, Chicago White Sox | White Sox Depth Chart
Unlike the Jays and Mets, who had multiple reasons to keep Guerrero and Alonso in the Minors until 2019, the Sox’s decision to bypass Jimenez for a September call-up was more questionable.
Already on the 40-man roster and without much to prove after slashing .337/.384/.577 with 22 homers and 28 doubles between Triple-A and Double-A, Jimenez’s MLB debut appeared imminent as September approached. But White Sox general manager Rick Hahn, citing Jimenez’s need to improve his defense, confirmed in early September that he would not be called up. Of course, the 21-year-old probably would’ve benefited greatly from playing left field in the Majors for 20-25 games in September. And, of course, Hahn is just doing a good job of not saying the quiet part out loud: Eloy under team control through 2025 > Eloy under team control through 2024.
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14. Dean Kremer, SP, Baltimore Orioles | Orioles Depth Chart
After posting a 5.18 ERA in 2017, mostly as a relief pitcher in High-A, Kremer’s stock rose quickly with a full-time move to the starting rotation in 2018. In 16 starts for High-A Rancho Cucamonga, the 22-year-old right-hander posted a 3.30 ERA with a 13.0 K/9. After tossing seven shutout innings in his Double-A debut, the Dodgers included him as a key piece in the July trade for Manny Machado. Kremer continued to pitch well with Double-A Bowie (2.58 ERA, 45 1/3 IP, 38 H, 17 BB, 53 K) and now finds himself on track to help a rebuilding Orioles’ team in 2019.
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15. Nicky Lopez, SS, Kansas City Royals | Royals Depth Chart
Lopez started to turn some heads during last offseason’s Arizona Fall League, and it carried over into 2018 as he slashed .308/.382/.417 with nine homers, 15 stolen bases and more walks (60) than strikeouts (52) between Triple-A and Double-A. It’s a sign that the 23-year-0ld’s bat is catching up with his stellar defense and that he’s closing in on the Majors, where he could team with Adalberto Mondesi to form one of the better young middle infield duos in the game.
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16. Royce Lewis, SS, Minnesota Twins | Twins Depth Chart
The No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 draft didn’t disappoint in his first full professional season, posting an .853 OPS, nine homers, 23 doubles and 22 stolen bases in 75 Low-A games before a 2nd half promotion to High-A Fort Myers. He didn’t fare quite as well (.726 OPS, 5 HR, 6 SB in 46 games), but he did hit three homers in the playoffs to help his team win the Florida State League championship. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the if he reached Double-A early next season as a 19-year-old with a jump to the Majors in 2020 not out of the question.
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17. Michael Kopech, SP, Chicago White Sox | White Sox Depth Chart
Throwing a 100 MPH fastball isn’t as rare as it used to be, but Kopech has reportedly touched 105 MPH, putting him in a class of his own. Unfortunately, the 22-year-old right-hander is expected to join a long list of pitchers who have had their careers interrupted by Tommy John surgery after he was recently diagnosed with a torn UCL.
The timing isn’t great, as Kopech had just arrived in the Majors in late August and would’ve likely been a leading candidate for AL Rookie of the Year in 2019. Still, he’ll only have to prove that he’s back to full health before he returns to the Majors—he should be ready to return early in the 2020 season— after making a strong impression in Triple-A with a 3.70 ERA and 12.1 K/9 in 24 starts.
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18. Kevin Smith, SS, Toronto Blue Jays | Blue Jays Depth Chart
Not only do Guerrero, Bichette and Cavan Biggio likely form the best trio of infield prospects in the game, two are sons of Hall of Famers—Vladimir Guerrero Sr. and Craig Biggio, and Bichette’s dad, Dante, was also pretty good. And yet, another Blue Jays infield prospect with a very ordinary name and without MLB lineage managed to stand out. The 22-year-old finished the season with 25 homers, 31 doubles, 29 stolen bases and a cumulative .302/.358/.528 batting line between High-A and Low-A.
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19. Gavin Lux, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers | Dodgers Depth Chart
The former first-round pick wasn’t overly impressive in his first full Minor League season in 2017, slashing .244/.331/.362 with seven homers and 27 stolen bases for Low-A Great Lakes. A move to the hitter-friendly California League in 2018, however, seemed sure to give his offensive numbers a boost. It did. Lux had a .916 OPS and 41 extra-base hits in 404 plate appearances, but he also didn’t slow down once he reached the upper minors late in the year.
In 28 regular season games with Double-A Tulsa, the 20-year-old Lux slashed .324/.408/.495 with four homers in 120 plate appearances. It didn’t end there. Over an eight-game playoff run, the left-handed batter went 14-for-33 with five multi-hit games.
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20. Patrick Sandoval, SP, Los Angeles Angels | Angels Depth Chart
Acquiring the 21-year-old Sandoval from the Astros for free agent-to-be catcher Martin Maldonado could turn out to be the steal of the trade deadline. While the lefty didn’t stand out in Houston’s deep farm system, he was having a strong season at the High-A and Low-A levels at the time of the trade (2.56 ERA and 9.9 K/9 in 88 innings). The change of scenery didn’t affect him one bit as he tossed 14 2/3 shutout innings in the California League before finishing the season with four impressive Double-A starts (19 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 27 K).
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Power Ranking Leaders By Level
Triple-A
Hitter: Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros
Starting Pitcher: Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox
Relief Pitcher: Ian Gibaut, Tampa Bay Rays
Double-A
Hitter: Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitcher: Taylor Widener, Arizona Diamondbacks
Relief Pitcher: Matt Pierpont, Colorado Rockies
High-A
Hitter: Colton Welker, Colorado Rockies
Pitcher: Emilio Vargas, Arizona Diamondbacks
Low-A
Hitter: Chavez Young, Toronto Blue Jays
Pitcher: Jhonathan Diaz, Boston Red Sox
Short-Season A
Hitter: Tyler Freeman, Cleveland Indians
Pitcher: Jaison Vilera, New York Mets
Rookie
Hitter: Wander Franco, Tampa Bay Rays
Pitcher: Joey Cantillo, San Diego Padres
