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Astros Step Up Efforts To Re-Sign Carlos Correa

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MARCH 15: Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic says that the Astros plan on making Correa a new offer “shortly.” He adds that the rumors are “creating buzz in camp” and quotes a source as saying “Players can’t stop talking about it.”

MARCH 14: The Astros “have stepped up efforts to bring back Correa to the point where owner team owner Jim Crane is involved,” according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.  Late Sunday, the door seemingly closed on the Yankees (if it was ever open), as they acquired Isiah Kiner-Falefa from the Twins.  Late Sunday, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic speculated about whether Correa could choose to sign a record AAV one-year deal this month, concluding “the idea is not necessarily far-fetched.”

MARCH 13: In another update, Crane tells Mark Berman that the Astros are “in discussions” with Correa’s representatives.

MARCH 11: Free agency is back, and the still-unsigned Carlos Correa will return to the forefront of the market as he angles for a contract north of the 10-year, $325MM deal Corey Seager signed in Texas prior to the lockout. Correa’s former team, the Astros, has yet to completely move on from the possibility of keeping him in Houston. Owner Jim Crane told Mark Berman of FOX 26 in Houston last night that the team plans to circle back to Correa now that the market has reopened (Twitter link).

“I’m sure we’ll engage one more time and we’ll see what happens,” says Crane. “Carlos is a great player. He’s a one-of-a-kind player. I thought we made a good offer before. We’ll see where they’re at on their side. I’m sure we’ll talk to them shortly.”

The prior offer referenced by Crane was reported by Berman back in November to be five years and $160MM — a hefty sum but one that always felt well shy of where Correa’s eventual payday would land. Correa has already reportedly received and rejected a 10-year, $275MM offer from the Tigers, which only serves to underscore the manner in which the ’Stros would need to substantially alter their own proposal in order to keep him in the fold.

On the subject of that Tigers offer, which came prior to Detroit’s eventual signing of Javier Baez, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi adds some additional context. Detroit not only put forth a guaranteed $275MM sum but also included three opt-out clauses over the life of the deal, in addition to an annual bonus of $10MM for finishing in the top five of MVP voting. Correa’s sights have been more focused on topping Seager and possibly on topping Francisco Lindor’s $341MM guarantee with the Mets, however. He reportedly sought $330MM or more prior to the lockout.

There’s been some speculation that, in light of a sizable offer from the Tigers, perhaps Detroit could follow the Rangers’ lead and ultimately sign two of the market’s top shortstops this winter. Baez has plenty of experience at second base and third base, and the Tigers’ payroll is largely free and clear once Miguel Cabrera plays out the final two years of his current deal. Baez and fellow offseason signee Eduardo Rodriguez are the only players on the books in 2024 and beyond, and it’s possible that even Baez won’t be around by that point. His contract contains an opt-out clause after the 2023 season.

However, The Athletic’s Jim Bowden reports that Tigers owner Chris Ilitch is not comfortable with another contract of that magnitude hitting the books, which throws some cold water on the possibility of a Baez/Correa double-play tandem. That’s a particularly unsurprising revelation in light of this week’s report that Ilitch was one of four owners who initially voted against even raising the league’s proposed luxury-tax threshold to $220MM. (It eventually landed at $230MM in 2022, and it should be noted that the new CBA was ultimately unanimously approved among the 30 owners.)

Morosi indicates within his column that the Cubs are expected to be among the prominent players for Correa, as they already had plenty of dialogue with his camp prior to the lockout. Of course, Correa switched representation and enlisted the Boras Corporation to represent him during the lockout, so much of that groundwork may need to be redone. The Cubs, like the Tigers, have ample payroll space and could stand to upgrade at shortstop.

Signing Correa, though, wouldn’t really mesh with president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer’s early comments on Chicago’s offseason trajectory. Hoyer dubbed pitching to be the team’s primary focus — the Cubs have since added Wade Miley and Marcus Stroman — and also preached the importance of “spending intelligently.” Generally, Hoyer struck a measured tone when discussing offseason spending. The Stroman contract illustrates that this isn’t a Cubs team looking to completely tear down and tank for multiple years as it did in the run-up to 2016’s World Series crown, but there’s a pronounced difference between signing Stroman on a three-year term and shelling out the decade-long deal and $33MM+ annual salary that Correa is hoping to command.

Braves Sign Matt Olson To Eight-Year Contract

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The Braves have signed newly acquired first baseman Matt Olson to an eight-year, $168MM contract that runs through the 2029 season, the team announced today. Atlanta also has a $20MM club option for a ninth season. Olson is represented by Jet Sports.

Atlanta, one of the few organizations that publicly discloses contract terms, further announced that Olson will earn $15MM this coming season and $21MM in 2023 before being paid at a $22MM annual rate in the contract’s final six seasons. Olson is also donating $1.68MM to the Atlanta Braves Foundation as part of the deal. It’s the third-largest contract ever signed by a player with between four and five years of MLB service, trailing only Joey Votto and Giancarlo Stanton.

Anthopoulos and his front office wasted little time in solidifying that Olson, along with Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies, is now one of the key building blocks for a team that hopes to build on last year’s World Series run. “He’s now part of this core,” president of baseball operations told reporters, adding that he and agent B.B. Abbott “worked all day and all night” on the extension as soon as the trade to acquire Olson had been finalized (video link via Bally Sports). The guaranteed portion of Olson’s contract expands even beyond that of Acuna, though the Braves hold club options on Acuna for the 2027 and 2028 seasons. Albies’ contract runs through at least 2025 and carries club options for the 2026 and 2027 seasons.

Olson had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $12MM this coming season, and he was owed one final raise in arbitration in 2023 before he’d been set to hit the open market. He’ll forgo six free-agent seasons on the would-be deal, likely securing somewhere in the range of $138MM or so for those six free-agent seasons. The new contract surpasses that of Olson’s predecessor, Freddie Freeman, for the largest contract in the franchise’s history.

The $168MM guarantee to Olson surpasses the Braves’ reported $140MM offer to Freeman, though it’s surely critical to the Braves and to ownership at Liberty Media that Olson is 27 years old (28 later this month). Freeman is 32, and he’d be 38 by the time a six-year deal — his reported asking price — wrapped up. Olson, meanwhile, is now signed through his age-35 season. That age discrepancy, and the considerably lighter annual value on Olson’s deal, were surely driving factors in the Braves’ comfort level with putting forth a commitment of this magnitude to Olson but apparently not going to six years on Freeman.

While Olson and Freeman will now be inextricably linked for the foreseeable future, Olson made clear yesterday that he doesn’t intend to compare himself to Freeman, whom he called a “hell of a player” (Twitter link, with video, from the San Francisco Chronicle’s Matt Kawahara). “I’m just going to go out there and do what Matt Olson does,” he added.

That’s good news for Braves fans, as there’s quite little that Olson does not do well. The lefty-swinging slugger belted a career-high 39 home runs in 2021 and took home a second Gold Glove Award at first base that is unlikely to be his last. Olson was strikeout prone earlier in his career, but he slashed his strikeout rate by more than 10 percentage points last season, finishing the year at 16.8% — not substantially higher than his gaudy 13.1% walk rate. Since Opening Day 2019, Olson’s 89 home runs are tied with Nelson Cruz for the third-most in MLB, trailing only Pete Alonso (106) and Eugenio Suarez (95).

With Olson now signed, the Braves’ payroll jumps to a projected $156MM this coming season — the highest total in franchise history. They already have about $84MM on the books in 2023, and as far out as 2026 they’ll have at least $43MM set in stone (likely rising to $50MM, assuming Albies remains healthy and has his $7MM club option picked up that season).

A year ago, a changing of the guard at first base like this would’ve felt unthinkable to Braves fans — and for many, that may still be the case. The Olson extension adds even more finality to the end of the Freddie Freeman era in Atlanta, and as the Braves look toward starting a new chapter in franchise history, they’ll do so with the Atlanta-born Olson manning first base and anchoring the heart of the order alongside Acuna and Albies.

Rockies To Sign Alex Colome

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March 15: Colome is guaranteed $4.1MM on the contract, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.

March 12: The Rockies have agreed to a one-year deal with Alex Colome, ESPN’s Enrique Rojas reports (via Twitter).  The contract will become official when Colome passes a physical.  Colome is represented by the Wasserman Agency.

Daniel Bard and Carlos Estevez combined for 31 of the Rockies’ 33 total saves in 2021, though Colome’s more established track record as a closer could make him the top ninth-inning choice for the Rox next year.  Bard and Estevez could be moved back into set-up roles, or manager Bud Black could simply take a committee approach with his closer’s role.

Colome is coming off something of an unusual season that saw him post a respectable 4.15 ERA over 65 innings with the Twins, despite a swath of unfavorable Statcast metrics.  While Colome’s bottom-line numbers have generally been much better than his advanced metrics over his career, Minnesota still declined its end of a $5.5MM mutual option on Colome’s services for 2022, instead buying the reliever out for $1.25MM.

Apart from the 22 1/3-inning outlier of the shortened 2020 season, Colome has always posted below-average hard-hit ball rates over his career.  While his whiff rate has remained above average, Colome’s strikeout rates have been mediocre since the start of the 2019 season, while his walk rates have hovered around the league average mark.  A .211 BABIP was of great help to Colome during his 2019-20 seasons with the White Sox, as his 2.27 ERA was far below his 4.52 xFIP and 4.42 SIERA over those two years.

Generating grounders has become an increasingly large part of Colome’s gameplan as his strikeouts have been on the wane, and the 53.4% grounder rate he has posted over the last two seasons will be of great help at Coors Field.  After spending all nine of his MLB seasons in the American League, the 33-year-old has only a single appearance at Coors Field over his 393 career games.

Red Sox Reportedly Showing Interest In Freddie Freeman

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The Freddie Freeman bidding has a new entrant, as MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Red Sox have joined the fray. They’ll join a field that has already included the Yankees, Blue Jays, Dodgers and, somewhat surprisingly, the Rays. Tampa Bay reportedly made an offer to Freeman prior to the lockout, and Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported last night that the Rays remain interested. However, he suggests their interest is limited to a shorter-term deal — presumably at what would be a massive annual rate. That doesn’t appear too likely, of course, given the interest from larger-market clubs with deep pockets. As of yesterday afternoon, reports indicated that the Yankees were “pessimistic” about their chances of signing Freeman, while other clubs viewed the Blue Jays as a serious threat.

A Freeman signing would give the BoSox an elite heart-of-the-order grouping, as he’d join Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers and J.D. Martinez in composing the team’s two-through-five hitters. Adding Freeman to the fold would likely mean supplanting 26-year-old Bobby Dalbec at first base, though even with his big finish to the 2021 season, Dalbec isn’t going to serve as a roadblock to a superstar of Freeman’s caliber. Dalbec struggled through a dismal first half before slashing .269/.344/.611 in his final 195 plate appearances, although he did so in spite of a 31.3% strikeout rate and still finished the year with an overall batting line of .240/.298/.494.

The larger question for the Red Sox is likely a matter of payroll — more specifically, the luxury tax. Last week’s newly ratified collective bargaining agreement bumped the tier-one threshold for penalization from $210MM to $230MM, but the Sox are already at about $209MM of luxury obligations (via Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez). Adding Freeman to the mix would send Boston soaring past that mark. The Sox have paid the tax in the past, but more recently ownership has been staunchly against doing so. Freeman is the type of player for whom many clubs might consider an exception, but it’s not yet clear whether Boston would feel that way or whether any Freeman interest is contingent on moving other salary.

If the Sox are indeed willing to pay the tax, it’d likely only be a one-year dip into those waters. Boston’s luxury obligations will plummet following the season, dropping from the current $209MM level all the way to $75MM. That doesn’t even include the possibility of Bogaerts opting out of his six-year, $120MM contract — which seems quite likely and would further shave another $20MM from that luxury ledger. The Red Sox have Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi, Jackie Bradley Jr., Christian Vazquez, Enrique Hernandez, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill, Matt Strahm and Kevin Plawecki all coming off the books following the 2022 season.

Again, that doesn’t make it any kind of lock that they’ll be comfortable putting forth a multi-year deal of six years in the $30MM annual value range, which is generally believed to be where Freeman’s asking price currently lies. But there’s a clear on-paper fit and the long-term payroll flexibility to make it work, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco noted when picking the Sox to sign Freeman back in November.

Wherever  Freeman lands, it’s become quite clear that he’s set to move on from the only organization he’s ever known. The Braves acquired Matt Olson in a trade with the Athletics yesterday — a move that president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos called the toughest transaction of his lengthy executive career while fighting back tears (video link via Bally Sports). Anthopoulos noted multiple times that he couldn’t “get into specifics” as to why the deal was so difficult to make, though the implication was clear.

Seiya Suzuki Weighing Interest From Several Teams

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6:41pm: Suzuki and his reps are expected to meet with Cubs brass tonight, reports Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic (Twitter link).

4:45pm: Suzuki himself shot down rumors of a decision having been made, via Instagram story. “There are several reports that I’ve made my decision, but none of that is true,” writes Suzuki.

2:28pm: Suzuki has not chosen a team yet, according to Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times, who says six to seven teams remain under consideration.  Jon Heyman of MLB Network names the Padres, Dodgers, Red Sox, Giants, Mariners, and Cubs as some of the teams still involved.

TODAY, 1:43pm: “It appears Seiya Suzuki’s decision is not far away,” tweets Acee.

YESTERDAY, 11:53pm: The Padres are known to be making a push for Seiya Suzuki, and the outfielder worked out in front of Padres executives at Petco Park this weekend, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reports (Twitter link).  Suzuki’s time in San Diego also included a visit with Padres righty Yu Darvish and Darvish’s family.

Now that the lockout is over, Suzuki is finally free to partake in normal free-agent recruitment tours, which are particularly key for players coming to Major League Baseball for the first time.  Lin notes that it isn’t known if Suzuki visited any other teams this weekend or what his other travel plans may entail, though given the number of teams interested in Suzuki, he could have quite a few stops to make before his posting period is up.  Suzuki now has 17 of his 30 posting days remaining, as the lockout interrupted this process and kept Suzuki from any contract with big league clubs.

Suzuki has seemingly become an increasingly important figure in the Padres’ roster-building efforts, as Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune said earlier today that obtaining Suzuki was part of a “Plan A” scenario for the team.  That outline included signing Suzuki and Nelson Cruz, and then trading one of Eric Hosmer or Wil Myers to open up payroll space, though one element of that plan has now been scuttled since Cruz signed with the Nationals.

With Cruz now off the board, it could only intensify the Padres’ pursuit of Suzuki.  Since Cruz is limited to DH duty, adding Suzuki would arguably be a better fit for San Diego anyway given the team’s needs in the outfield.  Suzuki could be easily slotted right into the Padres’ right field spot, as Myers (if he isn’t traded) could be moved across the grass to fill San Diego’s left field vacancy.

Blue Jays “Making Push” For Kyle Schwarber

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The Blue Jays are “making a big push” for Kyle Schwarber, tweets Jon Heyman of the MLB Network. Marly Rivera of ESPN reported (on Twitter) this evening the Jays had interest in the lefty-hitting outfielder. Heyman adds that multiple teams remain in the mix but puts Toronto among the frontrunners for his services.

Toronto has been tied to a few marquee bats, as reports suggest they’re at least on the periphery of the Freddie Freeman market. Presumably, a Schwarber deal would take the Jays out of the running for the 2020 NL MVP, but he’d be a notable boon to their offense himself.

Schwarber, who turned 29 last week, is coming off a career-best season. Non-tendered by the Cubs last winter, he signed a $10MM deal with the Nationals. The Indiana University product hit .253/.340/.570 with 25 home runs across 303 plate appearances with Washington. That included an unreal 16-homer month of June that had made Schwarber the league’s hottest hitter before he suffered a severe hamstring strain in early July.

He spent the next six weeks on the injured list, during which time the Nationals fell out of contention. The Red Sox acquired Schwarber in a deadline deal despite his injury, with plans to have him rotate between first base and left field for the stretch run. He returned in mid-July and picked up right where he’d left off pre-injury, popping seven homers with a .291/.435/.522 line in 41 games with Boston. (The midseason trade also made him ineligible to receive a qualifying offer).

Between the two clubs, Schwarber posted a .266/.374/.554 line with 32 homers over 471 plate appearances. That production was 45 percentage points above the league average, by measure of wRC+. As he has throughout his career, Schwarber was a bit prone to strikeouts (27%), but he also drew walks at an elite 13.6% clip and posted top-of-the-scale power production. He ranked in the 90th percentile or better in terms of average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard contact percentage. It was the kind of middle-of-the-order output many expected from Schwarber when he was drafted fourth overall and ranked as one of the sport’s top offensive prospects.

The corner outfield market is robust, with Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos, Seiya Suzuki and Michael Conforto all joining Schwarber in the ranks of the unsigned. Freeman and Anthony Rizzo are the top options at first base, leaving plenty of possibilities for clubs in search of an upgrade to the middle of the lineup.

In addition to their search for a big-ticket bat, the Jays have been looking for infield and bullpen help. Héctor Gómez of Z 101 reported over the weekend (on Twitter) that Toronto was looking into a reunion with versatile infielder Jonathan Villar. The switch-hitter played briefly with the Jays late in 2020 and struggled, but he bounced back with a decent .249/.322/.416 showing over 505 plate appearances for the Mets last season. The Jays could use some help at either of second or third base (with Cavan Biggio taking the other position), and Villar may be the top option remaining in free agency.

On the relief front, the Jays have checked in with closer Kenley Jansen, writes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. The market for the longtime Dodger has been fairly quiet to this point, but he’s arguably the best remaining late-game option. The typically excellent Jansen tossed 69 innings with a 2.22 ERA last season, punching out an elite 30.9% of opponents.

Mariners Acquire Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez From Reds

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The Mariners made a massive addition to their lineup, announcing the acquisition of star outfielder Jesse Winker and third baseman Eugenio Suárez from the Reds. Seattle will reportedly assume the entirety of the three years and $35MM remaining on Suárez’s contract. In return, they’re sending pitching prospect Brandon Williamson, outfielder Jake Fraley, right-hander Justin Dunn and a player to be named later to Cincinnati.

Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has been open about his hunt for offensive help throughout the winter. Seattle already signed reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to a five-year contract, but they hadn’t previously done a whole lot to bolster the offense aside from a deal that brought in Adam Frazier from the Padres.

Winker got his due as a first-time All-Star last season, but he’s quietly been an excellent hitter for some time. He’s had a wRC+ of 127 or better (output at least 27 percentage points above the league average) in four of his five career seasons. The former supplemental first-rounder has been particularly impressive the past couple years. Going back to the start of the 2020 campaign, he owns a .292/.392/.552 line with 36 home runs over 668 plate appearances.

Last year, he tallied 485 trips to the dish and hit a personal-best .305/.394/.556 with a strong 10.9% walk rate and a 15.5% strikeout percentage that’s more than seven points lower than the league average. Winker rarely swings and misses or chases pitches outside the strike zone, and he’s capable of doing plenty of damage when he makes contact. He posted well above-average marks in terms of barrel rate, hard contact percentage and average exit velocity.

It’s easy to see the appeal for Seattle in adding that kind of offensive firepower to the lineup. Despite winning 90 games, the Mariners didn’t have an especially productive offense last year. Seattle hitters ranked just 21st in team wRC+ (excluding pitchers). They finished 22nd in total runs scored. Winker should be a massive boon to a unit that’ll need to improve if they’re to snap a 20-year playoff drought.

That said, Winker isn’t entirely without flaws. He’s limited to the corner outfield defensively, and he’s never rated favorably in the eyes of public metrics. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him as 20 runs below average in 2,335 2/3 career innings in the corners (in addition to three runs below average in 138 innings as a center fielder). Statcast’s Outs Above Average has him at -21 plays as a big leaguer, including a -7 mark last season.

The left-handed hitting Winker also has some of the league’s most notable platoon splits. He’s been downright elite in his career against right-handed pitching (.313/.405/.556), but his numbers without the platoon advantage (.188/.305/.295) have been unimpressive. Winker’s probably not a strict platoon player — he does at least draw a boatload of walks against southpaws — but his impact has been concentrated to feasting on righties.

Perhaps of more concern than any aspect of his talent, though, has been his lack of volume. Winker has gone on the injured list in every full season of his MLB career. Heading into last season, the 28-year-old had never tallied even 400 plate appearances in a big league campaign. He picked up a personal-high in playing time last year, but he ended the season on the IL after suffering an intercostal strain in mid-August (from which he unsuccessfully tried to return in September).

That all makes Winker a tricky player to value, but there’s little question he’ll improve Seattle’s overall offense. He’ll presumably step in as the M’s regular left fielder, joining an outfield that could feature Jarred Kelenic in center and Mitch Haniger in right. Former Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis is coming off another serious knee injury, and Dipoto told reporters (including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times) he’s unlikely to be ready for the start of the season as they proceed with caution in his recovery. Former top prospect Taylor Trammell and utilityman Dylan Moore could be depth options behind the presumptive season-opening trio of Winker, Kelenic and Haniger. Julio Rodriguez, among the top handful of prospects in the game, mashed at Double-A at the end of last season.

Winker will probably be in the Pacific Northwest for at least the next two seasons. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $6.8MM salary via arbitration this year. He’ll be controllable via that process once more next winter before reaching free agency in advance of his age-30 season.

In order to entice the Reds to part with a player of Winker’s caliber, the M’s are taking on far more money than just his projected arbitration figures. Cincinnati signed Suárez to a $66MM extension in March 2018, which will pay him a bit more than $13MM annually for the next three seasons. (The deal also includes a $15MM club option for 2025). Initially, that looked to be a shrewd investment by the Cincinnati front office, as Suárez went on to earn down-ballot MVP support in each of the following two years. Yet after combining for a .277/.362/.550 line over that stretch, he’s struggled the past couple seasons.

Suárez hit .202/.312/.470 during the shortened 2020 campaign. That’s a ghastly batting average, but he offset it somewhat with a robust 13% walk rate and 15 homers in only 231 plate appearances. However, his issues at the plate mounted last year. His walk percentage dipped to a solid but no longer elite 9.8%, not sufficient to make up for an even lower .198 batting average. Suárez reached base at only a .286 clip — the sixth-lowest mark among the 135 players who totaled 500+ plate appearances. He still hit for power (31 homers), but the on-base issues and his inability to successfully acclimate to an ill-advised move from third base to shortstop kept his overall production in the realm of replacement level.

Clearly, the Mariners assumed Suárez’s deal as a means to acquire Winker. That said, it seems likely they’ll give him some opportunity to try and right the ship in his new environs. Seattle bought out longtime third baseman Kyle Seager at the end of the year. Abraham Toro looks like the in-house favorite for playing time at the hot corner, but Toro can bounce between the corners and second base as a bat-first utility option as well. Divish tweets that Suárez is likely to step in as the primary third baseman, at least to begin the year, with Toro deployed around the diamond as needed.

The acquisitions of Suárez and Winker will add around $20MM to the Mariners’ 2022 books. That puts this year’s estimated expenditures at $106MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s well above last year’s season-opening $73MM mark but nowhere close to franchise-record payrolls that exceeded $150MM from 2017-18. Precisely how much remains in the coffers isn’t clear, although it seems they’re content with the position player group. Dipoto told reporters (including Daniel Kramer of MLB.com) the club was unlikely to make further moves on that side of the ball. Seattle had been linked to big-ticket free agents like Kris Bryant and Trevor Story this offseason, but Dipoto called their pursuits of free agent hitters “dead ends.”

The Winker acquisition marked another aggressive move for a win-now Mariners team, but it’s a continuation of payroll-cutting efforts for the Reds. Cincinnati traded away Tucker Barnhart and lost Wade Miley on waivers for little to no return in November. They’ve listened to trade offers on their top three starting pitchers, and they moved Sonny Gray to the Twins for pitching prospect Chase Petty over the weekend.

This afternoon’s swap is the most notable to date, as the Reds slice around $20MM in 2022 commitments off the books. Of arguably greater import, they find a way out of the future commitments to Suárez. Only Joey Votto ($25MM) and Mike Moutakas ($18MM) have guaranteed money on the Cincinnati books in 2023, and the payroll slate is completely clean by 2024. Reds brass has pushed back against the idea they’re orchestrating a full teardown, but the recent subtractions of Winker and Gray make it more difficult for what had been an 83-79 team to contend this season.

Against that backdrop, it wouldn’t be surprising to see further subtractions by Cincinnati. Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle each have two more seasons of arbitration control, as Winker did. Both pitchers would bring back a haul if the Reds made them available, particularly with the free agent market essentially now bereft of mid-rotation options.

Even if the Reds have further moves on the horizon, however, the players they bring back should all factor into the mix in short order. Fraley and Dunn are immediate big leaguers, and Fraley seems likely to step right into the left field spot vacated by Winker’s departure. The left-handed hitter struggled in limited big league looks between 2019-20, but he showed reasonably well this past season.

Fraley picked up 265 plate appearances last year, hitting .210/.352/.369 with nine homers and ten steals. The batting average is obviously subpar, but the LSU product more than compensated with an elite 17.4% walk rate. Fraley’s extremely patient approach at the plate should make him a serviceable on-base option. He’s primarily been a left fielder in the big leagues, but he’s capable of covering center in a pinch. Fraley’s controllable through 2026 and isn’t on track to reach arbitration eligibility until 2024.

Dunn, meanwhile, is a former first-round pick who went to Seattle from the Mets in the Edwin Díaz/Robinson Canó trade. He’s made 25 starts over his three big league seasons, posting a 3.94 ERA in 102 2/3 innings. The 26-year-old’s peripherals don’t support that kind of run prevention; he’s benefitted from an unsustainable .205 opponents’ batting average on balls in play and has walked an untenable 15.5% of batters faced. Despite averaging a decent 93.8 MPH on his four-seam fastball last year, he only generated swinging strikes on 9.7% of his offerings (a bit below the 10.9% league mark for starters).

Like Fraley, Dunn is an affordable, MLB-ready piece though. He’s controllable through 2025 and won’t reach arbitration until next season. If the Reds do move one or both of Castillo and Mahle, Dunn could factor into the back of the rotation immediately. He might also be a candidate for a bullpen transfer — some prospect evaluators have long suggested he’d be a better fit in relief — where he could aid a Cincinnati bullpen that was among the league’s worst.

Fraley and Dunn are the more well-known parts of the return, but Williamson is quite likely the player the Reds value most of the trio. A second-round pick out of TCU in 2019, the southpaw has impressed evaluators since getting into pro ball. Baseball America ranked him as the game’s #83 overall prospect this winter (fifth in the Seattle system), noting that the 6’6″ lefty can run his fastball into the mid-90s and has a potential 70-grade curveball on the 20-80 scouting scale.

BA writes that the 23-year-old could develop into a #3/4 starter. FanGraphs slotted Williamson 61st on their recent Top 100 list, opining that control issues could limit his ability to work deep into games consistently but praising his repertoire and suggesting he could be “dominant” for five-six innings per start. Williamson pitched his way to Double-A last year, working 67 1/3 innings of 3.48 ERA ball with an excellent 33% strikeout rate and a fine 8.1% walk percentage. He seems likely to get a big league look at some point this season and may eventually work alongside college teammate Nick Lodolo in the Reds’ rotations of the future.

The Reds also pick up a player to be named later who is reportedly a notable part of the return. Moreover, general manager Nick Krall told reporters (including Mark Sheldon of MLB.com) they plan to reinvest some of the money they saved in free agency. Cincinnati fans may roll their eyes at their assertion, given the club’s cost-cutting efforts to date, but Krall reasserted that this was not going to be a multi-year teardown.

The deal offers a major shakeup to both organizations. The M’s continue to push forward in an effort to hang with the Astros (and perhaps the Angels) at the top of the AL West. The Reds’ hopes of contending were dealt another blow, but the front office continues to maintain they’re not punting on the 2022 campaign. Whether Cincinnati’s future moves back up that assertion remains to be seen, but there’ll be no shortage of demand if they turn their attention to trading away either Castillo or Mahle.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Mariners were acquiring Winker. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the Mariners were acquiring Suárez and that the Reds were acquiring Fraley, Williamson and Dunn. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that Seattle was taking on the entirety of Suárez’s contract. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the Reds were acquiring a player to be named later who “enhances” the quality of their return.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Mets Sign Adam Ottavino

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The Mets announced Monday evening that they’re signed right-handed reliever Adam Ottavino. It’s reportedly a a one-year contract worth $4MM, plus $1MM of performance bonuses for the 36-year-old. Ottavino is represented by WME Sports.

Ottavino broke into the big leagues as a Cardinal but was claimed on waivers by the Rockies and ended up staying for seven seasons from 2012 to 2018. In that time, the righty got into 361 games, throwing 390 2/3 innings with an ERA of 3.41, strikeout rate of 27.6% and walk rate of 10.1%. His last season with the Rockies was especially noteworthy, as he had the best year of his career at the age of 32. In that campaign, he threw 77 2/3 innings with a 2.43 ERA. His 11.7% walk rate was a few ticks above league average, but he offset that with an incredible 36.2% strikeout rate.

Based on that tremendous late-career breakout, the Yankees signed Ottavino to a three-year, $27MM contract. In 2019, Ottavino largely made good on the faith the Yankees showed in him. In 66 1/3 innings, he lowered his ERA to 1.90, despite his strikeout rate falling to 31.1% and his walk rate jumping to 14.1%. In the shortened 2020 season, however, things took an ugly turn, as he put up an ERA of 5.89 over 18 1/3 innings, with his strikeout rate falling to 29.4%.

Prior to the 2021 campaign, the Yankees sent Ottavino to the Red Sox, mostly because they were nearing the luxury tax and wanted his salary off the books. In 62 innings for Boston last year, his ERA was 4.21, not as bad as the small sample from 2020, but definitely a notch below his 2018-19 stretch. His strikeout rate also dipped for a third straight season, coming in at 25.7%.

For the Mets, this is yet another move in what has been an extremely busy offseason for them. They upgraded their lineup by signing Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar. They also improved their rotation by signing Max Scherzer before the lockout and trading for Chris Bassitt yesterday. Now they’ve added Ottavino to a bullpen that already features Edwin Diaz, Trevor May, Miguel Castro and Seth Lugo. Those are all right-handed options, meaning that the club could look to supplement that group with a lefty, if their wild roster revamp isn’t yet complete.

To create space on the 40-man roster, New York outrighted right-hander Antonio Santos, tweets Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. The Mets had claimed the 25-year-old off waivers from the Rockies in November, but he didn’t stick on the New York 40-man all winter. He doesn’t have the requisite service time to refuse an outright assignment, so he’ll remain in the organization as non-roster depth.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported the agreement and its terms.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rockies “Aggressively Pursuing” Kris Bryant

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The Rockies are “aggressively pursuing” Kris Bryant, tweets Jon Heyman of the MLB Network. Nick Groke and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported this afternoon (on Twitter) that Colorado’s interest in Bryant was continuing.

This isn’t the first time the Rox have been tied to Bryant. They were reported to have interest in his services just before the lockout, but today’s link between the two sides reinforces that the club is actively involved in the pursuit a few months later. The Rockies have been known to be searching for offense, with a big bat to add to the outfield the primary target.

They’ve also been linked to Kyle Schwarber and Michael Conforto (although later reports threw some cold water on the possibility of Conforto winding up in Denver). Thomas Harding of MLB.com tweets that Schwarber and Conforto remain in play as possible alternatives if Colorado doesn’t get a deal with Bryant done.

The Rockies making a run at any one of those three outfielders might seem a bit counterintuitive, as Colorado’s coming off a 74-87 showing. For better or worse, ownership and the front office have maintained they’re trying to contend in 2022, in spite of losing Trevor Story and Jon Gray from an already below-average team. They’ve signed José Iglesias and Chad Kuhl to replace those respective players positionally, but those aren’t high-impact solutions. Bryant, needless to say, would be a much more notable and costly splash.

Colorado should have some payroll flexibility to accommodate a noteworthy free agent signing. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource currently estimates their 2022 commitments around $112MM, including projections for arbitration-eligible players. That’s already above last season’s Opening Day mark but well shy of the franchise-record $145MM figure from 2019. COO Greg Feasel said earlier this offseason that the Rox would push their player expenditures back towards that 2019 number over the coming two seasons.

Athletics Trade Matt Olson To Braves

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The Freddie Freeman era in Atlanta appears all but over. The Braves announced Monday that they’ve acquired All-Star first baseman Matt Olson from the Athletics in exchange for a hefty package of minor league talent: center fielder Cristian Pache, catcher Shea Langeliers and right-handers Ryan Cusick and Joey Estes. While some Atlanta fans may hold out hope that the implementation of the universal designated hitter leaves open the possibility for both Olson and Freeman to coexist on the same roster, Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos implied otherwise when discussing the trade with reporters. Anthopoulos held back tears today, calling the Olson trade the hardest transaction he’s ever had to make — a clear allusion to the team’s plans for Freeman (or lack thereof).

Matt Olson | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

As is the case with Anthopoulos, the acquisition of Olson will be a bittersweet one for many Braves fans. While Olson is an elite first baseman with Atlanta roots, it’s long been difficult to fathom Freeman, the 2020 National League MVP, ultimately moving on and signing with a new team. Freeman was a homegrown star in every sense of the word, going from No. 78 overall draft pick in 2007 to a five-time All-Star, league MVP and World Series champion. He’s spent the past 12 seasons in Atlanta, thanks in large part to an eight-year, $135MM contract extension that kept him in Braves gear long beyond his arbitration years. Freeman has become synonymous with the Braves, but it now appears all but certain that this is a changing of the guard.

As far as replacements for Freeman go, it’s tough to dream up a better option than the Atlanta-born Olson, however. Set to turn 28 later this month, Olson is a two-time Gold Glover at first base who just wrapped up a career year that netted him his first All-Star nod. Over the past three years, Olson has cemented himself as one of the premier power threats in the game, swatting 89 home runs and 65 doubles while playing his home games in the cavernous Oakland Coliseum. This past season, Olson shed the “strikeout-prone” label when he cut his strikeout rate from 27.5% in 2019-20 all the way down to 16.8%. He did so while maintaining an excellent 13.1% walk rate and turning in the finest overall season of his career: .271/.371/.540 with a career-high 39 home runs.

Of course, Olson is far more than your prototypical bat-first, slugging first baseman. He’s a two-time Gold Glove winner who happens to lead all Major League first basemen with 34 Defensive Runs Saved dating back to 2017 (despite playing in just 59 games that year). Olson’s 22.8 Ultimate Zone Rating is also tops among first basemen in that span, and his 15 Outs Above Average (per Statcast) rank sixth in that same span. There’s an argument to be made that bittersweet as the change might be for Braves fans, Freeman is being replaced by the most well-rounded, prime-aged first baseman in the game.

The Braves will control Olson for at least the next two seasons, as he’s currently sitting on four-plus years of Major League service time. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $12MM salary for Olson this coming season, and he’ll be due one more raise on that sum before qualifying as a free agent after the 2023 season. Of course, the Braves could well look to sign Olson to a long-term deal that would keep him with his hometown club far longer than those remaining two years of control. Atlanta reportedly balked at going six or more years on a potential Freeman extension, but Olson is four and a half years younger than Freeman, which could alleviate concerns about an eventual decline in the late stages of a long-term deal.

Just as it’s difficult for the Braves’ faithful to process the change, Athletics fans are surely reeling from the news as well. While periodic sell-offs of this nature have become second nature for Oakland diehards, the current core is one of the more talented and recognizable groups in recent memory. Olson was a fan favorite and beloved player at the Coliseum, but his departure begins to pave the way for what the A’s hope will be its next core group.

Pache and Langeliers are the true headliners here, though all four prospects ranked among the top 15 or so in the Braves’ farm. Pache, 23, has seen his stock dip a bit since being ranked as baseball’s No. 7 prospect (per Baseball America) in the 2020-21 offseason. That’s due both to a poor showing at the plate in the big leagues and a fairly pedestrian output in Triple-A Gwinnett. Pache received just 68 big league plate appearances in ’21 and batted .111/.152/.206, though it’s tough to glean much of anything from such a small sample. His work in Triple-A was more encouraging but not on par with his strong 2019 campaign in Double-A; in 353 trips to the plate with Gwinnett this past season, Pache batted .265/.330/.414.

Cristian Pache |Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Offense has never been projected to be Pache’s primary selling point, however. That’s not to say he couldn’t develop into a solid big leaguer at the plate, of course, but much of his prospect allure has come from the fact that he’s a plus runner who received 80 grades for his defensive upside in the outfield. Considering the huge space he’ll now have to patrol at the Coliseum, that’s a particularly valuable skill to have. And, if Pache can turn in something close to his lifetime .280/.330./406 slash from the minor leagues, he ought to be able to solidify himself as a highly valuable big leaguer before long. Pache is still near universally regarded among the sport’s top 100 prospects.

Turning to the 24-year-old Langeliers, he’ll give the A’s another potential high-end catcher before long. Sean Murphy is the incumbent option there and had a fine season in ’21, but Langeliers was the No. 9 overall pick in 2019 and is fresh off a .256/.339/.494 showing between Double-A and a brief stop in Triple-A. Baseball America ranked Langeliers 54th among all prospects, calling him an excellent defender with a “cannon” arm and above-average power. That he reached Triple-A already in 2021, albeit only for five games, speaks to his proximity to the Majors. Langeliers also ranks as baseball’s No. 70 prospect at FanGraphs and No. 80 at The Athletic.

With Langeliers now perhaps the future behind the plate, Oakland will at least have the ability to more comfortably listen to offers on Murphy if they see fit. Murphy is controlled another four seasons and just won a Gold Glove while popping 17 home runs, but he’ll reach arbitration next year — around the time Langeliers is likely to be ready for an everyday audition at the big league level.

As for Cusick and Estes, both are well regarded in their own regard, even if they haven’t received the type of national attention that Pache and Langeliers have. Cusick was Atlanta’s first-round pick just last summer, joining the organization after posting huge strikeout totals during his sophomore and junior seasons at Wake Forest (37% overall). The 6’6″, 235-pound righty sits in the upper 90s with a heater that has touched 102 mph.

Command was an issue for Cusick in college, but in 16 1/3 innings with Low-A Augusta last season, Cusick punched out more than half of the 67 hitters he faced while issuing just four walks. It remains to be seen whether he can sustain those gains, but there’s huge potential if he can indeed refine his command. If not, a triple-digit fastball and this type of bat-missing ability will surely play up as a potential late-inning reliever. He was generally regarded among the system’s 10 best overall prospects.

As for the 20-year-old Estes, he was the Braves’ 16th-round selection in 2019 but has quickly elevated his profile. Drafted out Paraclete High School in Lancaster, Calif., Estes had a nondescript pro debut that lasted 10 innings in ’19, didn’t pitch due to the canceled 2020 minor league season and then broke out with a monster year as Cusick’s teammate in Low-A Augusta. Through 20 starts, a total of 99 innings, Estes notched a 2.91 ERA with a 32.1% strikeout rate and a 7.3% walk rate. He was an extreme fly-ball pitcher in 2021 (33.2% grounder rate), but that’s not a huge concern for the A’s, given their spacious home environs. Estes’ success came despite being nearly three years younger than the average competition he faced. While he and Cusick are both at least one, if not two full seasons away from making a big league impact, they both add some considerable upside to an Oakland system that was generally regarded among the thinnest in the sport.

“This is the cycle for the A’s,” Forst said back in early November when addressing reports of a likely payroll reduction. “We have to listen and be open to whatever comes out of this. This is our lot in Oakland until it’s not.” Those foreboding words have already manifested in the trade of two popular and productive A’s stars, and there’s little sense expecting that Oakland will put a foot on the brakes now. They’ve secured four new pitching prospects and a pair of ballyhooed close-to-the-Majors position players already (Pache, Langeliers), and things are likely just getting started.

As for the Braves, the acquisition of Olson will turn the page on perhaps the team’s most iconic player since Hall of Famer Chipper Jones. The 2020 MVP crowning for Freeman was a high note in his career, but the team’s storybook World Series run, with Freeman at the heart of the charge, will make an even more fitting end to this chapter in the team’s history. Olson will have major shoes to fill at Truist Park, but so long as he carries on at something near the .254/.348/.515 pace he’s tallied over his past 564 Major League games, the Braves will be in good hands.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported that trade and all five players involved (Twitter thread).

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