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Manfred Expresses Optimism For Full Season, Says MLB Has Proposed Universal DH And Elimination Of Draft-Pick Compensation

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Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred met with the media for about 30 minutes Thursday morning as the quarterly owners’ meetings drew to a close, discussing the status of the ongoing labor dispute with the MLB Players Association. Among the more concrete takeaways, Manfred said that the league has “agreed” both to the implementation of a universal designated hitter and the elimination of draft-pick compensation for free agents who reject qualifying offers.

However, as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reports (Twitter links), the use of “agreed” is a bit misleading. The two parties have not reached a formal agreement on either issue. Rather, Manfred’s use of “agreed” merely indicates that both the universal DH and elimination of draft-pick compensation were included as components of a broader proposal put forth by MLB some time ago.

Still, with regard to the universal designated hitter, this is one of the most concrete indicators of its likely implementation. Both parties, after all, have in the past shown a desire to add a DH to the National League. For the players, this creates another spot in 15 lineups and could create a handful of jobs for free agents. For teams, this all but eliminates the risk of pitchers being injured at the plate and on the bases. Because of that mutual interest, though, the league’s desire to frame the universal DH as something of a concession is somewhat questionable. It’s not clear the union will perceive it as a concession.

With regard to the elimination of pick compensation, Dierkes reports that the league’s proposal instead would award draft picks to teams for losing free agents, based on the quality of player, with no offer of any sort required. That raises issues on how to specifically determine that player’s value, however, and the MLBPA likely harbors concern that by giving teams a pick for losing a free agent, the league is actually disincentivizing clubs from re-signing some of their own players.

Beyond those two more concrete elements of his side’s recent proposal, Manfred offered little in the way of definitive statements. Asked about the status of Spring Training (i.e. whether it will be delayed), the commissioner replied that the “status of Spring Training is no change right now.”

We’re only a week out from the original report date for players and have, to this point, seen no meaningful progress in negotiations between the league and union. A delayed Spring Training feels like a foregone conclusion, but Manfred at least kicked the can down the road a couple days on any such formal declaration, suggesting that the decision was contingent on how Saturday’s meeting with the MLBPA plays out. That said, while Manfred didn’t explicitly state that Spring Training will be delayed, he addressed the possibility, acknowledging that the three-week ramp up period to the pandemic-shortened 2020 season was insufficient.

“The injury data shows that,” Manfred said of 2020’s training period. “We’d like to be [at] 28 [days] — we think four weeks makes sense.” A four-week Spring Training would still fall a good ways shy of the typical six-week period, but the extra week of build-up time in that theoretical scenario would prove beneficial to players, particularly to starting pitchers.

Manfred declared himself an optimist, stating more broadly that he believes the two sides will reach an agreement in time for the regular season to begin, as planned, on March 31. Missing regular-season games would be a “disastrous outcome to this industry,” Manfred said, adding that MLB is “committed to reaching an agreement to avoid that.”

Upon being asked about the league making just one proposal in the ten weeks since implementing the lockout, Manfred demurred and stated that “phones work two ways,” painting the lack of meaningful talks as a two-way street. Whichever side you take in the increasingly ugly battle — and it’s plenty fair if your answer is, “neither!” — it was ownership that locked out the players in, as Manfred stated at the time, an effort to “jumpstart” progress toward a deal. A silent period of more than six weeks followed. It’s plenty defensible to say the union should have been more proactive in instigating talks, but at the very least, the players have spent the past two weeks publicly declaring a desire for daily negotiations.

In one of the more eyebrow-raising moments of the press conference, Manfred was asked whether purchasing an MLB franchise was a “good investment.” He bizarrely implied the contrary, stating that between the purchase price of the team and the money invested into the club on a year-over-year basis, the “return on those investments is below what you’d expect to get in the stock market,” adding that there was greater risk in owning a team. Comments of that nature are sure to further galvanize a union that has repeatedly suggested the league isn’t being genuine or negotiating in good faith.

That term, “good-faith,” is a recurring theme when both sides discuss negotiations, as each indicates that the other is effectively neglecting to operate in such a fashion. For his part, Manfred vowed to make a “good-faith, positive proposal” to the players when the two sides meet Saturday, implying that perhaps this weekend could serve as a turning point.

“One correct move sometimes opens the way to an agreement,” said Manfred. “My view of the world is you always keep looking for that one move that creates that opportunity.”

Rangers Expected To Explore Matt Olson Deal Post-Lockout

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Whenever the lockout ends, transactions — both on the trade and free agent fronts — figure to pile up in a hurry. Among the likelier names to change hands is star Oakland first baseman Matt Olson, who has been the subject of rumors for several months. That’s only natural after A’s GM David Forst plainly acknowledged that the team has reached a point in its “cycle” where they’ll need to be open to moving established players (though the writing had already been on the wall for some time before that).

The Yankees have been frequently reported as an interested suitor for Olson, and prior to the lockout, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News wrote that the Rangers had “already begun investigating” what an Olson acquisition might cost them. Whatever exactly occurred in those pre-lockout talks seemingly wasn’t a huge deterrent, as Grant writes this week that Texas will “absolutely” circle back with the A’s to see if there’s a potential fit.

Perhaps of greater intrigue to fans, however, is that Grant suggests an Olson package would require, at minimum, current big league first baseman Nathaniel Lowe, plus of the organization’s top prospects and a pair of other mid-tier names from down on the farm. As one might expect, it’s a rather broad and subjective set of parameters. Josh Jung and Justin Foscue are both “top prospects” for the Rangers, for instance, but Jung’s value is considerably higher at the moment. It’s hard to see the Rangers parting with Jung, who’s expected to debut in 2022, or either of the top pitching prospects in the system (2021 No. 2 overall pick Jack Leiter and 2018 first-rounder Cole Winn).

Regardless of specific permutations on the prospect side of things, a package headlined by Lowe and two or even three intriguing farmhands would figure to be appealing to A’s brass. Lowe, 26, isn’t on the same level as Olson offensively or defensively, but he’s been an above-average hitter in the big leagues and is controlled another five seasons. He’ll likely be a Super Two player (assuming Super Two designation remains unchanged in current labor talks), thus putting him on a path to arbitration eligibility next offseason. Lowe’s first two or even three arbitration salaries should be relatively affordable, however.

Texas acquired Lowe in a Dec. 2020 trade that sent four prospects to the Rays, and he responded with a solid first year at the plate in his new environs. Through 642 plate appearances, Lowe slashed .264/.357/.415 with 18 home runs, 24 doubles, three triples, eight stolen bases (in eight attempts) and a hearty 12.5% walk rate. Lowe had fanned in 31.8% of his first 245 trips to the plate in Tampa Bay, but he dropped that number to a more manageable 25.8% in Texas. Defensively, he put up sub-par marks in Defensive Runs Saved (-3), Ultimate Zone Rating (-4.2) and Outs Above Average (-3). Scouting reports from Lowe’s prospect days pegged him as a solid defender at first base, however, so there’s likely some room for improvement.

Notably, Grant adds that if Olson isn’t acquired, first base isn’t likely to be a priority for the Rangers. A pursuit of Olson, then, seemingly isn’t about being dissatisfied with the work Lowe has put in, but rather about jumping at the opportunity to grab an elite player with multiple years of club control remaining.

While there’s no guarantee Olson is ultimately moved, it’s an interesting look at a potential framework for a swap. The A’s have, historically speaking, tended to prefer returns that included immediate help for the big league roster when dealing away star players. Lowe would certainly fall under that umbrella, and some immediate production from him could help to soften the blow of losing Olson.

Olson, 28 next month, has emerged as one of the premier first basemen in the game over the past few years, with his 2021 season in particular towering above the rest of the league. In 673 plate appearances, Olson batted .271/.371/.540 (146 wRC+) with 39 home runs, 35 doubles and standout defense at first base. He dramatically reduced his strikeout rate, cutting it from 26.1% (2016-20) all the way to 16.8% — and he did so without sacrificing any of his plate discipline. To the contrary, Olson’s walk rate jumped from 10.8% in 2016-20 to 13.1% this past season.

Trading a player of this caliber is a tough pill for the A’s to swallow but also, as Forst alluded to, a familiar process in the Oakland front office. Olson is due his second arbitration raise once the lockout ends, and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects that he’ll jump from $5MM to $12MM for the 2022 season. Add in a third and final arbitration raise in 2023, and Olson figures to cost upwards of $30MM over the next two seasons combined.

That’s a bargain rate for most clubs, but for a perennially low-payroll A’s team that has seen its best players reach the late stages of arbitration simultaneously, it’s a problematic scenario. Olson, Matt Chapman, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt and Frankie Montas are projected to combine for $45.7MM alone; the A’s payroll is set to rise to its second- or third-highest mark ever in 2022 before the team even makes a single addition.

Trading Olson within the division may not be preferable for the A’s, but longtime baseball ops boss Billy Beane and Forst have never shied away from intra-division swaps. Texas and Oakland lined up on a deal just last offseason, swapping out Elvis Andrus and Khris Davis in a financially-motivated arrangement. A year prior, Texas and Oakland matched up in a Mike Minor swap, and the two teams also struck an accord in the 2019-20 offseason when Jurickson Profar went from Texas to Oakland as part of a three-team trade. Suffice it to say, Beane and Rangers president of baseball operations Jon Daniels are comfortable trading within the division, although moving a star of Olson’s caliber perhaps changes that calculus a bit.

If the Rangers were to ultimately pry Olson loose from their divisional foe, one would have to imagine they’d take a run at signing him to a long-term extension. They still have a ways to go before stepping back into the AL West running and aren’t yet expected to contend in 2022, so losing any trade acquisition after just two seasons could be deemed counterproductive. That’s putting the cart well before the horse, however, as Texas will face competition from several other clubs in trying to put together the best offer for Olson. Beyond the Yankees, Olson has been reported as a target for the Braves, should Freddie Freeman sign elsewhere. Others yet will view the situation similarly to the Rangers, feeling that while first base isn’t a dire need, Olson himself is so appealing that he’s worth moving some other pieces around to fit into the puzzle.

The 14 Likeliest Trade Candidates After The Lockout

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We saw robust free agent activity prior to the December 1st lockout, with 30 of our top 50 free agents signing contracts.  Over $2 billion was committed to 62 players on Major League contracts, by our count.

With all the focus on free agency, the trade market was relatively quiet.  Position players Tucker Barnhart, Adam Frazier, Jacob Stallings, Joey Wendle, Jorge Alfaro, Hunter Renfroe, and Jackie Bradley Jr. were the biggest names on the move.

Though the lockout does not appear close to an end, we can assume it will conclude at some point.  Once that happens, a scramble roughly four-to-six weeks in length seems likely to commence, in which both Spring Training and all remaining offseason transactions will take place.  Aside from the expected free agent frenzy for the top remaining names, the trade market figures to kick heavily into gear.

Recently, I got together with Steve Adams and Anthony Franco to assess the potential trade market.  We wound up putting trade candidates into several buckets.  The first bucket, covered in this post, is simply players we feel are likely to be traded, whether stars or regulars.  One caveat: many of these trade candidates are interconnected.  For example, the A’s are almost certain to trade at least one of Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, and Frankie Montas, but we don’t expect them to trade all three.  Without further ado, we present MLBTR’s 14 Likeliest Trade Candidates:

1. Matt Olson / 1B / Athletics

The A’s are widely expected to hold a fire sale as a means of reducing their payroll.  Olson, who we project to earn $12MM in 2022 through arbitration, seems highly likely to be dealt.  Olson is controlled for two more years through arbitration.  He provides huge power from the left side and is set to turn 28 in March.  Olson’s 39 home runs were tied for fifth in the AL last year, as was his 146 wRC+.  Olson is not only known for his bat; his defense at first base ranked second in the game in the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards.  It’s simply quite rare to find a 5-WAR player with two years of control like Olson available on the trade market; the last decent offseason comparable we can find is when the Marlins traded J.T. Realmuto to the Phillies three years ago.

There aren’t too many teams that couldn’t find a spot for Olson.  He’s probably the one reasonable replacement for Freddie Freeman that Braves fans might find palatable.  The Yankees, Dodgers, Rays, Rockies, Marlins, Brewers, Phillies, Padres, and Giants are other speculative fits, especially if the DH comes to the NL as expected.  The Realmuto trade was led by Sixto Sanchez, considered a 65-grade prospect by Baseball America at the time of the deal.  Teams these days are extremely reluctant to part with prospects of that caliber, who generally fall within the top 30 in the game.  The A’s are in the driver’s seat as they look for the best overall offer.

2.  Matt Chapman / 3B / Athletics

The Matts have been teaming up at the infield corners for the A’s since 2018.  It’s quite possible both could be traded once the lockout ends.  Chapman has consistently been an above average hitter in every year of his MLB career, though in 2021 he was only a tick above average with a 101 wRC+.  In the three seasons prior, Chapman posted a 130 mark, hitting a career-best 36 home runs in 2019.  Combine that level of offense with Chapman’s Gold Glove defense at the hot corner, and he was an MVP candidate in 2018-19.  He’ll turn 29 in April.

Chapman’s stellar defense – ranked second in the game at third base in the ’21 Fielding Bible Awards – gives him a high floor even if his bat slips like it did in 2021.  Chapman is so good defensively at third base that ESPN’s Buster Olney has reported that the Yankees talked internally about the possibility of acquiring him to play shortstop, which he has done for all of ten innings in the Majors.  The result is a player who is worth more than 3 WAR with an average bat, and 6+ when he’s mashing.  A new team would look to solve Chapman’s recent slide in contact and line drives at the plate, but the A’s aren’t selling Chapman quite at his peak.

Like Olson, Chapman is an arbitration eligible player with two more years of control remaining.  We project him to earn $9.5MM in 2022.  The Mariners, Blue Jays, Phillies, Yankees, Rays, Rockies, and Dodgers could be possible landing spots.

3.  Sean Manaea / SP / Athletics

The A’s also have multiple strong trade candidates in their starting rotation.  We’ll start with Manaea, who has only one year of control remaining and is projected to earn $10.2MM through arbitration.  Manaea, a southpaw who recently celebrated his 30th birthday, made 32 starts in 2021 with a 3.91 ERA.  While Manaea has a mid-rotation profile, he did show career-best velocity and his best swinging strike rate in ’21, with his customary excellent control.

After a July 28th gem in San Diego, Manaea had his ERA down at 3.01.  He then posted a brutal 9.90 ERA in August before returning to form in September.  Manaea’s Statcast indicators are not particularly impressive, whether you’re looking at exit velocity or spin rate.

Aside from Carlos Rodon and Clayton Kershaw, Manaea is still better than just about every starting pitcher still available in free agency.  He’d benefit many teams’ rotations, including the Tigers, Angels, Twins, Orioles, Yankees, Mariners, Rangers, Braves, Cubs, Rockies, Dodgers, Mets, Giants, and Nationals.

4.  Chris Bassitt / SP / Athletics

Bassitt, projected to earn $8.8MM in 2022, is yet another A’s trade candidate.  It’s unclear whether the A’s would deal multiple starting pitchers, but again, we wouldn’t rule it out.  Manaea and Bassitt make particular sense because both are headed for free agency after the ’22 season.

Bassitt, a righty, is approaching his 33rd birthday.  Since 2020, he sports a 2.90 ERA in 220 1/3 innings – seventh in all of baseball for those with at least 200 innings in that time.  In 2021, Bassitt’s 18.8 K-BB% was a career best.  Unlike Manaea, Bassitt also boasts above average Statcast indicators, especially an 88th percentile hard-hit percentage.  Whether that’s enough for Bassitt to continue outpitching his SIERA as he has is unknown, but you can’t argue with the results so far.

Bassitt suffered a scary injury in August when a Brian Goodwin line drive struck his face, but fortunately he was able to return for a pair of outings in September.  He should command a higher price on the trade market than Manaea, although the two pitchers are not that far apart in projections for 2022.

Wondering about Frankie Montas?  He’s a trade candidate as well, but we’ve put him into more of a “plausible” bucket than “likely,” and he’ll be covered in an upcoming post by Steve Adams.

5.  Lou Trivino / RP / Athletics

Trivino makes it a quintet of A’s to lead off this post.  The 30-year-old righty is a decent reliever projected to earn $2.9MM in 2022.  He still has three years of control remaining and he’s not making a lot of money yet, but there’s also not a compelling reason for the A’s to hang on to him this offseason.

Trivino posted a 3.18 ERA in 2021, along with a 95.8 mile per hour average fastball velocity and 85th percentile hard-hit rate.  Still, his K-BB% was only 10.6.  After picking up his 21st save against the Giants on August 20th, Trivino’s ERA stood at 1.72.  Then he went through a rough five-outing patch in which he allowed 13 earned runs in only 3 2/3 innings.  After that, Trivino recovered and pitched well in his final 11 outings.

Trivino doesn’t have great control, and he hasn’t always been a strikeout artist either.  So it’s not an amazing profile, but he’s had success at times and is affordable and controllable.  He can fit in somewhere as a seventh or eighth inning reliever.

6.  Craig Kimbrel / RP / White Sox

The Cubs’ June 2019 signing of Kimbrel was going poorly until the 2021 season, when he put up a dominant 0.49 ERA and 46.7 K% in 36 2/3 innings.  The Cubs sold high and shipped Kimbrel across town to the White Sox for Nick Madrigal and Codi Heuer.  Kimbrel struggled with the Sox, posting a 5.09 ERA while being done in by the longball.  The White Sox still chose to pick up Kimbrel’s hefty $16MM club option instead of taking a $1MM buyout.  They’ve already got Liam Hendriks in the closer role, and signed Kendall Graveman to a $24MM contract.

As I wrote in December, White Sox GM Rick Hahn spoke openly about trading Kimbrel, saying, “We’ve had conversations with other clubs and have a sense of what is potentially available.” Hahn added, “It’s easy to make the assessment that if you put him back in the closer’s role, it’s what he’s accustomed to and he’s more likely to have success.” I don’t find that to be a particularly reliable assessment: put Kimbrel back in a closer role, and he’ll be good again.  That didn’t prove true for the Cubs in 2019 or 2020.

I think the White Sox would very much like to trade Kimbrel, but they may have overestimated his popularity in the market at his salary.  Perhaps they’ll need to kick in a few million or take a decent-sized contract back to make it more palatable.  I’m not sure if an intra-division trade could be worked out, but the Royals have spoken of trying to upgrade their bullpen.  The Rays, Rangers, Blue Jays, Marlins, Mets, and Phillies could make some sense, but only if the money can be worked out and if the White Sox finds a team that actually believes Kimbrel will succeed in ’22.

7.  Kevin Kiermaier / CF / Rays

Kiermaier, 32 in April, has been the Rays’ primary center fielder for the past seven seasons.  He’s picked up three Gold Gloves in that time, and ranked third in the game in the ’21 Fielding Bible Awards.  With the bat, a league average season is generally the best case scenario.  Kiermaier signed a six-year deal with the Rays back in 2017.  He’s owed $12MM this year plus a $2.5MM buyout on a $13MM club option for ’23.

Kiermaier has been involved in trade rumors for years, but this may be the point where the Rays finally pull the trigger.  Baseball America ranks Rays prospect Josh Lowe 44th overall in the game, noting that he plays a plus center field.  Lowe also posted a 142 wRC+ at Triple-A, so he appears ready to take over.  The club can also give center field innings to Manuel Margot, Brett Phillips, and Vidal Brujan.

Teams like the Phillies, Yankees, Braves, Cubs, Rockies, Marlins, Giants, and Nationals could be potential fits for Kiermaier.

8.  Dominic Smith / LF-1B-DH / Mets

And now we enter the Mets portion of the list.  Smith was the Mets’ primary left fielder in 2021, but they added Mark Canha in free agency.  They’ve also got Pete Alonso locked in at first base and Robinson Cano set to DH.  A Smith-Canha platoon isn’t in the cards, since the Mets aren’t paying Canha $12MM this year to be the short side of one and Smith oddly hit lefties better than righties this year anyway.

There are certainly scenarios where Smith stays put, especially if the club decides they’d rather give him a good share of DH at-bats than Cano.  But, Smith doesn’t really have a spot right now and he posted an 86 wRC+ in 2021.  It’s possible the Mets are ready to move on.

Why would anyone be interested?  Keep in mind that Smith was drafted 11th overall out of high school back in 2013, and prior to the ’17 season was considered a top-70 prospect in the game.  After struggling early in his career, he posted a 150 wRC+ over 396 plate appearances from 2019-20 and crushed both lefties and righties.  He seemed primed for a 30 home run season in ’21.  Instead, Smith spent about three months as a regular in 2021 – May through July.  He had a 111 wRC+ in that time, but around August began sitting against lefties in favor of Kevin Pillar.

Smith is still only 26 years old.  He’s projected to earn $4MM this year and has three years of control remaining.  I think many teams will be interested in giving him regular playing time at left field, first base, or DH.  The Guardians, Rays, Rangers, Cubs, Rockies, Phillies, Pirates, and Padres are a few that come to mind.

9.  J.D. Davis / 3B-LF / Mets

Davis is another Mets player who doesn’t seem to have a spot in 2022.  He split time between left field and third base in 2019 and served as the club’s primary third baseman in 2020.  This year, Davis began as the Mets’ Opening Day third baseman, but spent significant time on the DL for a hand contusion and sprain, which ultimately led to surgery in October.  By August, Davis had fallen behind Jonathan Villar on the team’s third base depth chart.  While Villar is now a free agent, the Mets brought Eduardo Escobar in and he’s penciled in at the hot corner for ’22.  As we mentioned before, the team also imported Canha for left field and may choose to give a lot of DH time to Robinson Cano.

Since Davis came to the Mets in a January 2019 trade with the Astros, all he’s done is hit.  Davis has a 130 wRC+ in 893 plate appearances from 2019-21.  A right-handed hitter, he’s gotten to face lefties a disproportionate amount in that time (34% of his plate appearances), but Davis has handled both lefties and righties well.  It’s worth pointing out that since 2019, Davis’ wRC+ ranks fifth among third basemen, and his work is only a hair behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jose Ramirez.

Aside from health, however, Davis’ defense at both third base and left field has been below-average.  It’s possible he shouldn’t be logging 1,000 innings per year at either position.  On the other hand, we’re likely headed toward a game with 30 DH jobs.  While it’s true that teams generally prefer to use that spot to rotate players these days, the NL DH is undeniably of benefit to a player like Davis.  I’m not sure a contender would install him as a regular third baseman, but the bat certainly plays.

Davis, 29 in April, is projected to earn $2.7MM this year and has three years of control remaining.

10.  Jeff McNeil / 2B-LF-3B-RF / Mets

As the only one who has played second base or right field, McNeil is the most versatile of the three Mets trade candidates listed here.  As such, he’s the least likely to be traded.  In fact, McNeil may end up as the team’s primary starter at second base in 2022.

Still, the Mets felt the need to trade for Javy Baez and play him at second base last summer, and Cano got most of their second base innings in 2019 and ’20.  Escobar is also capable of playing second base.  McNeil could serve in a utility role, but the club does have Luis Guillorme on the roster as well.  It’s not too difficult to picture McNeil being traded, nor would it be surprising if he stays.  Since there is overlap in positions, all three Mets listed here are interconnected.  A trade of one may mean the others are safe.

McNeil started off his Mets career on fire, with a 140 wRC+ in 1,024 plate appearances over 2018-20.  Though that didn’t constitute everyday playing time, he did rank 13th in all of baseball in wRC+ during that period.  A left-handed hitter, McNeil has always beat up on right-handed pitching, but he’s plenty good against southpaws as well.  McNeil is a high-contact hitter, with the game’s tenth-lowest strikeout rate from 2019-21.

Similar to Dominic Smith, McNeil’s bat dropped off late in 2021.  McNeil was placed on the IL in May with a hamstring strain, knocking him out over a month.  He raked in July with a 155 wRC+, but fell to a 68 mark in the season’s final two months.

McNeil doesn’t have a ton of defensive innings at any one position, but his work at second base has been solid and there’s a lot of value in his versatility and bat.  30 in April, McNeil is projected to earn $2.8MM this year and has three years of control remaining.

11.  Willson Contreras / C / Cubs

Contreras wasn’t a heralded prospect until 2016, when he generated buzz before the season and took over the Cubs’ starting catching job.  As a rookie, he was athletic enough to log 180 2/3 innings in left field as well.  Contreras has been an above-average hitter in each of his six seasons, which is especially impressive for a catcher.  Over the last three seasons, his 115 wRC+ ranks second in baseball among all catchers, even ahead of J.T. Realmuto.

Contreras ranked eighth among catchers in the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards, and his pitch framing has improved from earlier in his career.  WAR is always tricky with catchers.  FanGraphs sees Contreras more in the 2-3 WAR range per year, while Baseball-Reference has more 3-4 WAR type seasons on his ledger.

The 29-year-old Contreras is one of the last remaining players from the Cubs’ 2016 championship club, along with Kyle Hendricks, Jason Heyward, and manager David Ross.  The Cubs have been unable or unwilling to extend Contreras, who is set to make around $8.7MM this year before hitting free agency.  Before the lockout, the Cubs signed Yan Gomes to a two-year, $13MM deal, giving the club insurance in the event they decide to trade Contreras.  At least, Contreras seemed to take it that way.

On the other hand, the Cubs struggled last year to find a decent backup catcher, and Gomes could help reduce Contreras’ workload.  The Cubs have also supplemented the 2021 club with the pickups of Marcus Stroman and Wade Miley, so the team has at least some aim on contending.  A Contreras trade is not guaranteed, although it will be a seller’s market for catchers when the lockout ends.  A midseason trade is a possibility as well.  The Yankees, Guardians, Mariners, Rangers, and Giants could be potential suitors.

12.  Sonny Gray / SP / Reds

Gray, 32, was able to increase his strikeout rate significantly after coming over to the Reds from the Yankees in a January 2019 trade.  He made the All-Star team and finished seventh in the NL Cy Young voting in ’19.  His underlying skills haven’t changed a ton since then, but his batting average on balls in play returned to normal and in 2021, more home runs left the yard.

Gray tossed 135 1/3 innings in 2021, spending time on the IL for back spasms, a groin strain, and a rib cage strain.  Still, after a fine July 7th start in Kansas City, Gray had his ERA down to 3.19.  He put up a 5.03 ERA in his final 14 starts to finish the season at 4.19, his worst mark in a Reds uniform.

Gray is under contract for $10MM this year, with a $12MM club option for 2023 that will likely merit consideration.  He seems to represent the clearest path for the Reds to cut payroll; we’ll be addressing rotation-mates Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle in a separate post.

The Reds have shown recently with the Raisel Iglesias trade and Wade Miley waiver claim that under pressure to slash salary, they can give up good players for little to no return.  Quite a few teams are likely eyeing up Gray with this in mind.

13.  Jake Odorizzi / SP / Astros

Last March, with Framber Valdez fracturing a finger on his throwing hand, the Astros made a late deal for Odorizzi.  After signing late, Odorizzi made his Astros debut on April 13th.   Weeks later, he hit the IL with a right pronator muscle strain that knocked him out for over a month.  In September, Odorizzi expressed frustration after being pulled from a start after only 66 pitches.  In the following start, he exited early with a foot injury.  Though he did return in the regular season, Odorizzi was left off the Astros’ ALDS roster.

Heading into 2022, the Astros have seven healthy starting pitchers, and Odorizzi probably ranks last on that depth chart.  32 in March, Odorizzi is owed only $5MM this year.  He has a $6.5MM player option for 2023 with a $3.25MM buyout.

Odorizzi has significant contract incentives for 2022: $500K for 100 innings pitched, and then $1MM each at the 110, 120, 130, 140, and 150 inning marks plus $1.25MM at 160 innings.  You can imagine he won’t be excited to serve as the Astros’ long man to open the season.  The Astros might need to kick in some money or take back a contract, but Odorizzi can still help quite a few teams in the middle or back of their rotation.

14.  Luke Voit / 1B-DH / Yankees

Voit is currently projected to start at first base for the Yankees.  However, there’s a decent chance they’ll seek an upgrade, whether that’s bringing Anthony Rizzo back, trading for Matt Olson, or even signing Freddie Freeman.

Though Voit hasn’t been able to maintain the dizzying heights of 2018 (188 wRC+ in 161 PA) or 2020 (153 wRC+ in 234 PA), the problem has been more health than production.  This year, Voit appeared in only 68 games due to knee surgery, an oblique strain, and a bone bruise and inflammation in his knee.  He had four separate IL stints, but he’s expected to be ready for spring training.

With Giancarlo Stanton signed through 2027, the Yankees might not be a good home for Voit, who might have an easier time staying healthy with regular DH time.  We project Voit to earn $5.4MM this year.  He fits with Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis on the trade market: an interesting bat without an ideal defensive home.

If you’re wondering where a certain player was on this list, don’t worry!  We’ve got all sorts of additional trade candidate posts on the way.

L.A. County District Attorney Will Not File Criminal Charges Against Trevor Bauer

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The Los Angeles County District Attorney’s Office is not filing criminal charges against Dodgers starter Trevor Bauer, TMZ Sports reports. Bauer had been under investigation after a Southern California woman accused him of assaulting her during a sexual encounter last year.

Bauer’s accuser later initiated a civil proceeding for a restraining order against him. Around the same time, the Pasadena Police Department began a criminal investigation. While Bauer’s accuser was granted a temporary ex parte restraining order in June, a trial court denied her request for a permanent restraining order two months later following a week-long hearing. Not long thereafter, Pasadena PD turned the results of their criminal investigation over to the L.A. County District Attorney’s Office to determine whether criminal charges were warranted.

A bit more than five months after taking over the criminal investigation, the DA’s Office has chosen not to pursue criminal charges. Britt Ghiroli of the Athletic relays an excerpt of the DA’s Office’s formal decision (on Twitter): “After a thorough review of the available evidence, including the civil restraining order proceedings, witness statements and the physical evidence, the People are unable to prove the relevant charges beyond a reasonable doubt.”

Bauer was placed on paid administrative leave when the pending investigation was first made public late last June. He remained on administrative leave — a process designed to afford Major League Baseball time to investigate allegations of this nature, not to reflect any finding of fact on the league’s part — for the remainder of the 2021 season.

The absence of criminal charges does not bring an end to the MLB investigation. The MLB – MLB Players Association Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy permits MLB to impose discipline even in the absence of criminal charges. While Bauer was on administrative leave, it was reported that an Ohio woman had received an ex parte civil stalking protection order against him in June 2020 after also alleging he assaulted her during sex.

After hearing news of the DA’s Office’s declination to file charges, MLB released a brief statement (via Ghiroli): “MLB’s investigation is ongoing and we will comment further at the appropriate time.” After the District Attorney’s Office announced their decision, Bauer released a video (on Twitter) denying that he assaulted his accuser and asserting the entirety of their sexual encounter was consensual.

Rockies Extend Bud Black Through 2023

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2:01pm: The Rockies have formally announced the extension.

11:22am: The Rockies have signed manager Bud Black to a one-year contract extension, reports Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Black had previously been set to enter the final year of his deal, but he’s now signed through the conclusion of the 2023 campaign.

Bud Black } Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports

The 2022 season will be Black’s sixth with the Rockies and 15th managing at the big league level. The 2010 National League Manager of the Year in San Diego, Black was hired by now-former general manager Jeff Bridich heading into the 2017 season. His first two years on the job resulted in Wild Card berths, with Black’s Rockies going 1-1 in those one-game postseason showdowns. The division-rival D-backs toppled Colorado in 2017, but Black and the Rockies took down the Cubs in 2018 — albeit before falling to the Brewers in a three-game NLDS sweep.

Since their last postseason appearance, the Rockies have posted three straight losing seasons. With a 171-212 record in that time (.446 winning percentage) and a change at the top of the baseball operations staff, there’d been at least some speculation as to whether Black would remain with the Rockies beyond the current season. Owner Dick Monfort is generally regarded as one of the most loyal executives in the sport (often to a fault), and new GM Bill Schmidt was a prominent figure in the front office even at the time of Black’s original hiring by Bridich and Monfort. In spite of the losing ways in recent year, it appears Black will receive the opportunity to turn the ship around.

Frankly, that’s a defensible stance for the Rockies to take. Black’s rosters haven’t exactly been set up for success, after all, as the Rockies didn’t spend anything in free agency in either of the past two offseasons. Perhaps Monfort and the front office were still reeling from an ill-fated series of free-agent foibles that saw Ian Desmond, Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee sign for a combined $176MM with very little in terms of a return on investment. Perhaps Monfort truly believed that the 2020-21 Rockies were capable of producing 90-plus wins as constructed and needed little to no augmentation, as he previously implied.

Beyond the lack of roster upgrades, of course, was the organizational turmoil that eventually led to Nolan Arenado’s departure. Signed to an extension that ostensibly set him up as the face of the franchise moving forward, Arenado quickly grew frustrated with the front office’s lack of additional moves. Rockies brass had reportedly promised that his contract would be the first in a series of moves aimed at putting a perennial contender on the field, but the team instead repeatedly stood pat. A rift between Arenado and the front office/ownership grew, with Arenado famously going on record to state that he felt “disrespected” by the Rockies — Bridich in particular.

Whatever the reasoning, the lack of upgrades and the eventual trade of their clear best player makes it difficult to have set much in the way of expectations for Black. Managers are evaluated on far more than their wins and losses in today’s age of aggressive tanking and rebuilds anyhow, and there’s no indication Black has ever lost his grip on the clubhouse. He’s also known as a manager who specializes in helping young pitchers — Black himself is a former Major League pitcher — and Monfort and Schmidt surely have to be pleased with the manner in which Colorado’s rotation performed in 2021.

Coors Field will always prove problematic for the home pitching staff, but the Rockies’ rotation was generally durable and dependable. The quintet of Jon Gray, German Marquez, Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela and Austin Gomber combined to start 135 of the Rockies’ games (83.3%), and each posted an ERA in the mid-4.00s with an average or better ground-ball rate. The Rockies weren’t necessarily a powerhouse rotation, but for a team that often ranks at the bottom of the league in terms of pitching performance, it was encouraging to get such volume and fairly consistent results from the top five arms.

The Rockies face an uphill battle if they hope to return to contending in a deep NL West that is currently headed up by the No. 1 and No. 2 win totals in all of baseball from 2021 (Giants and Dodgers). The Padres remain squarely in win-now mode as well, and the Rockies will be tasked with improving the club despite a bottom-tier farm system and the likely loss of two more top players (the aforementioned Gray and shortstop Trevor Story). Whether they have a Cinderella run in them can’t be known, but Black will now have another pair of chances to coax that out of this group.

Cubs Have Reportedly Considered Pursuit Of Anthony Rizzo In Free Agency

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The Cubs have had internal discussions about making a run at Anthony Rizzo in free agency, reports Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. Chicago is obviously barred from having contact with Rizzo or his representatives at Sports One Athlete Management during the lockout, but Levine suggests they could put forth a contract offer whenever the transactions freeze is lifted.

The Cubs’ previous efforts at locking Rizzo up for the long term obviously didn’t result in an agreement. During last year’s Spring Training, Chicago made a reported five-year, $70MM offer that the star first baseman turned down. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer expressed optimism at the time the parties would work something out during the regular season, but a mutually agreeable price point never presented itself.

The North Siders reportedly made a renewed effort at extension talks with both Rizzo and Javier Báez in July, but neither signed and both impending free agents were ultimately shipped off in advance of the July 30 trade deadline. Rizzo landed in the Bronx, with the Yankees sending prospects Kevin Alcantara and Alexander Vizcaino to the Cubs in return. The three-time All-Star spent the final few months of the year with the Yankees before hitting the open market for the first time in his career.

Given that extension discussions between the Cubs and Rizzo’s reps didn’t get across the finish line, a return to Chicago may seem far-fetched. Yet it’s possible Rizzo doesn’t find the kind of contract he apparently sought, at least during last March’s round of talks. Entering the offseason, MLBTR projected he’d receive a three-year, $45MM guarantee, $25MM and two years south of the extension offer he reportedly declined during Spring Training.

That dip in likely earning power reflects both Rizzo’s age (32) and downturn in production over the past two years. After posting a .222/.342/.414 mark during the shortened 2020 season, the lefty hitter put up a .248/.344/.440 line with 22 home runs over 576 plate appearances in 2021. That’s solid production — 12 percentage points above the league average, by measure of wRC+. Yet it falls short of the elite offense he brought during his 2014-19 peak, when he combined for a .284/.388/.513 showing that was 41 points above the league average output (141 wRC+).

Rizzo’s batted ball metrics offer mixed signals on his chances of rediscovering his middle-of-the-order form. On the plus side, last season’s 90.1 MPH average exit velocity matched his personal high, while his 41.1% hard contact rate was a career best. His bat speed still seems intact, but Rizzo has gotten increasingly pull-oriented of late. In each of the past two seasons, he’s hit more than 47% of his batted balls to the right side of the diamond — the two highest single-season marks of his career. Defenses have responded by shifting against him more than ever. Paired with an uptick in pop-ups, that’s contributed to a meager .246 batting average on balls in plays since the start of 2020; during his aforementioned six-year peak, Rizzo sported a much better .295 BABIP.

While the Florida native may no longer be the star he was at his peak, that’s not to say there’s no appeal for possible suitors. In addition to his still-strong exit velocities, Rizzo owns excellent bat-to-ball skills. The former Silver Slugger punched out in just 15.1% of his plate appearances last season. That’s right in line with his career mark and more than seven points lower than last year’s league average. Rizzo also consistently draws a fair amount of walks and while he’s limited to first base, he still rates highly as a defender there. The Cubs are also no doubt familiar with his generally well-regarded clubhouse presence, and he was among the faces of the most successful run of play in more than a century of franchise history.

After trading away many of the most recognizable stars of that run, the Cubs were expected by most to be in for a quiet offseason. Hoyer consistently denied they were embarking on a full rebuild, though, and they’ve already signed Marcus Stroman and Yan Gomes and claimed Wade Miley off waivers from the Reds. The roster still looks short of contention, but reuniting with Rizzo would be a welcome development for much of the fanbase and upgrade an overall lineup that looks lacking. While they’ve already been more active than many anticipated, the Cubs should have financial flexibility to explore further additions. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource projects Chicago’s 2022 player payroll in the $114MM range. It seems unlikely they’ll jump to the $200+MM heights of the franchise’s record expenditures, but there’s plenty of room even before last season’s estimated $147MM season-opening level.

The Cubs would surely like to get another look at Frank Schwindel to see if his excellent showing as a 29-year-old rookie (.326/.371/.591 in 259 plate appearances) is the start of a late-career breakout. It’s widely expected the next collective bargaining agreement will include a universal designated hitter, though, likely leaving at-bats for both Schwindel and a possible outside addition to the first base/DH mix.

None of that is to say that the Cubs signing Rizzo is inevitable, or even especially likely. Front offices discuss possible moves that don’t ultimately come to fruition on a regular basis. And while reported interest in Rizzo has been fairly quiet this offseason, a couple more potential suitors have emerged.

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman expressed a desire to keep the 32-year-old in the fold back in November. With Freddie Freeman still unsigned, the Braves have looked into the possibility of pivoting to Rizzo. Freeman signing and a Matt Olson trade may be the catalysts necessary kickstart the respective free agent and trade markets for first basemen, which have yet to get going in earnest. Whenever that happens, perhaps the Cubs will embark on another effort to have Rizzo on the North Side for 2022 and beyond.

Adrián González Announces Retirement

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Longtime big-league first baseman Adrián González, who played for the Rangers, Padres, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Mets across 15 MLB seasons, officially announced his retirement today on his personal Instagram.

Gonzalez last played in the majors in 2018, but he was active as recently as this past season, playing 43 games with the Mexican League’s Mariachis de Guadalajara and posting a .340/.412/.531 batting line in 187 trips to the plate. He also represented Mexico in the 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo (held in 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic), where he collected three hits and a walk in 12 plate appearances.

Selected by the Marlins with the first overall pick in the 2000 amateur draft, González was part of a three-player package dealt to the Rangers at the 2003 trade deadline in exchange for Ugueth Urbina, a key piece in the Marlins’ memorable — if unlikely — 2003 title run. González debuted in Arlington the following year but never established himself as a regular in the Rangers lineup and was dealt again (this time with Chris Young and Terrmel Sledge) to the Padres for pitchers Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka. A San Diego native who attended Eastlake High School in nearby Chula Vista, González blossomed with his hometown club, beginning a run of four consecutive All-Star selections in 2008 and five consecutive seasons garnering MVP votes in 2007.

With only a year of control remaining, the Padres traded González to the Red Sox ahead of the 2011 season, and he agreed to a seven-year, $154MM extension in April. Despite strong production in Boston — including winning a Silver Slugger and leading the majors with 213 hits in 2011 — the swooning Red Sox shipped González (along with Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, and Nick Punto) to the Dodgers at the 2012 trade deadline in what amounted to a salary dump. Alongside a rotation helmed by Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, and Hyun Jin Ryu, González, Crawford and Beckett solidified the Dodgers’ roster and inaugurated the club’s present run as perennial contenders in the National League.  Guggenheim Baseball Management, the present Dodgers ownership group, executed a strategy of building a winner as rapidly as possibly by taking on salary from other teams after buying the club for $2.15 billion in early 2012.

After four-plus productive years in Chavez Ravine, González battled injuries in 2017, appearing in only 71 games (his first season with fewer than 156 since 2005) as he dealt with elbow and back issues that saw him land on the disabled list for the first time in his career. With a young Cody Bellinger entrenched as the Dodgers first baseman and only a year remaining on his contract, González agreed to waive his no-trade clause to facilitate one of the more creative big-money swaps in recent memory, heading to Atlanta along with Charlie Culberson, Brandon McCarthy, and Scott Kazmir in exchange for Matt Kemp. The deal enabled the Braves, nearing the end of a rebuild, to shift their payroll burden forward to 2018, while allowing the Dodgers to slip below the luxury tax threshold.

Per a pre-trade agreement, the Braves immediately designated González for assignment and released him two days later to allow him to explore other opportunities. He eventually latched on with a Mets team that rocketed to an 11-1 start but faded quickly in May and June. In what would turn out to be his final major league season, González compiled a .237/.299/.373 batting line in 187 PA across 54 games before being released by New York.

González finishes his MLB career with some very solid counting stats, (317 home runs, 2,050 hits, and 1,202 RBIs) to go along with a robust .287/.358/.485 career batting line.  He also won two Silver Sluggers and four Gold Gloves and was selected to appear in five All-Star games.  With a few truly dominant seasons amidst a thoroughly consistent level of production, González seems like a cinch to at least appear on the Hall of Fame ballot, itself a major honor that reflects a standout career.

MLB Trade Rumors congratulates González on all of his success on the field, and we wish him the best in his post-playing endeavors.

MLBPA Rejects MLB’s Request For Federal Mediation

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4:07 pm: Next steps remain unclear. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that there’s no set date for negotiations, but it’s possible discussions resume next week. Key league personnel will be in Orlando from Tuesday through Thursday for a scheduled quarterly owners meeting. Union representatives are expected to be available if a date for the next set of sessions is finalized. Commissioner Rob Manfred has a press conference scheduled for Thursday, and Nightengale writes he’s likely to formally announce a delayed start to Spring Training at that point.

2:25pm: Major League Baseball has offered the following response to the MLBPA’s statement:

“Our goal is to have players on the field and fans in the ballparks for Spring Training and Opening Day. With camps scheduled to open in less than two weeks, it is time to get immediate assistance from the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service to help us work through our differences and break the deadlock. It is clear the most productive path forward would be the involvement of an impartial third party to help bridge gaps and facilitate an agreement. It is hard to understand why a party that wants to make an agreement would reject mediation from the federal agency specifically tasked with resolving these disputes, including many successes in professional sports. MLB remains committed to offering solutions at the table and reaching a fair agreement for both sides.”

While the league maintains it is committed to “offering solutions at the table,” it has yet to respond to the proposal issued by the MLBPA on Tuesday or provide a timeline as to when such an offer might be put forth.

12:45pm: One day after Major League Baseball declined to issue a counteroffer to the MLBPA’s latest proposal in collective bargaining talks and instead requested federal mediation, the MLBPA issued a statement rejecting that request. It reads as follows:

“Two months after implementing their lockout, and just two days after committing to Players that a counterproposal would be made, the owners refused to make a counter, and instead requested mediation.

After consultation with our Executive Board, and taking into account a variety of factors, we have declined this request.

The clearest path to a fair and timely agreement is to get back to the table. Players stand ready to negotiate.”

It’s a wholly unsurprising outcome, given the manner in which meetings between the two sides have played out thus far. Major League Baseball’s suggestion for a federal mediator was always eyebrow-raising, given their lack of any kind of new proposal. There’s nothing to mediate, after all, when one side declines to even bring an offer to the table. As Sheryl Ring points out (Twitter thread), mediation of this nature is generally a measure taken when both sides have submitted a good-faith proposal to resolve a dispute, and a third party then helps foster progress toward a resolution.

The MLBPA submitted its most recent proposal on Feb. 1, wherein they offered only a marginal drop from a proposed $105MM pre-arbitration bonus pool to $100MM but also agreed to a league-proposed framework regarding changes to service time for young players. Specifically, MLB suggested awarding compensatory draft picks to teams that rostered young prospects who went on to finish well in Awards voting. That, in theory, would give teams some incentive to carry top prospects on their Opening Day roster rather than hold them in the minors for three weeks to secure an additional year of club control, as is so often the case. The union, in addition to its extremely modest drop in the pre-arbitration bonus pool, reportedly made some yet-unspecified tweaks to the league’s latest service-time proposal.

While details remain unclear, it’s evident that the league was nonplused by whatever ostensible were put forth by the players. A counter-offer was said to be in the works, but MLB instead shifted the onus back to players in a different and unexpected manner when it made its mediation request.

The end result is another several days with no progress, little to no actual negotiation, and a narrower window to conclude matters before the season begins. It’s already a foregone conclusion that Spring Training won’t be starting on time, and a best-case scenario now appears to be a truncated version of spring camps that still leaves enough time for players to ramp up for the regular season. There’s no guarantee that’ll happen, however, and the longer the interminable deadlock in negotiations lingers, the likelier it becomes that the regular season will be impacted.

As things stand, it’s not at all clear when talks will resume. Several players — James Paxton, Zack Britton and Whit Merrifield among them — have taken to social media to express some frustration with the lack of an MLB counterproposal (all Twitter links). They’ve joined up in offering a unified message that “a significant part of collective bargaining is… actually bargaining” — a message that other players are continuing to echo in greater number.

Now that the mediation request has been denied, one would assume a league counteroffer to be the next logical step, though MLB has yet to offer a rebuttal to the union’s latest statement.

MLB Will Not Counter MLBPA’s Latest Offer, Requests Federal Mediator To Help Resolve Lockout

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9:51PM: The Players Association is likely to turn down the league’s request for a mediator, according to Drellich (via Twitter).

4:10PM: The league will not be making a counter to the MLBPA’s most recent offer, The Athletic’s Evan Drellich reports (via Twitter).  The union made their offer on Tuesday and MLB was expected to make a response, though this will now apparently not be the case.  Between this lack of a counter-offer, no new meetings scheduled between the two sides, and now the league’s request for a federal mediator, it is unclear when the next set of negotiations may take place.

3:29PM: Major League Baseball has asked the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service for assistance in ending the lockout, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link).  As per the league’s request, a federal mediator would step in to help resolve the many outstanding issues between the owners and players in negotiating the next collective bargaining agreement.  The MLBPA would also have to sign off on a mediator’s involvement, and it isn’t yet clear whether the union has consented to this third-party consultation.

It isn’t uncommon for the FMCS to become involved in sports-related work stoppages, as federal mediators all played roles in the NFL’s 2011 lockout, the NBA’s 2011 lockout, and the 2012-13 NHL lockout.  In addition, Bill Shaikin of The Los Angeles Times noted that former FMCS director William Usery was appointed by President Bill Clinton to try and help baseball’s owners and players come to an agreement that would end the 1994-95 players’ strike.

Results were mixed, as FMCS involvement didn’t do much in the NFL’s case, nor did Usery’s involvement help bring the 1994-95 strike any closer to an end.  It is worth underscoring that a federal mediator is there only to help facilitate talks between the two sides, and cannot force either party to accept a deal.

With this in mind, it doesn’t necessarily mean that the lockout is any closer to a resolution.  In the absolute best-case scenario that a mediator’s involvement would suddenly jumpstart talks, it would likely be some time before a new CBA is finalized — Jeff Jones of The Belleville News-Democrat observes that the aforementioned NBA and NHL lockouts needed roughly five more weeks of talks to reach a resolution.  If Spring Training didn’t begin until mid-March, some regular-season games would need to be canceled.

A quick end to the lockout seems quite remote, however, given the large divides that have already become apparent in earlier talks between MLBPA and the players’ union.  If anything, requesting a mediator at this relatively early stage of negotiations is unusual, and it could be a tactic by the league to put some public pressure on the union.  (Labor lawyer Eugene Freedman raised this point as part of a multi-Tweet thread about today’s news.)  According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, a player with direct knowledge of the labor talks referred to the mediation request as “a publicity stunt” from the league.

While the lockout has only been going on for a little over two months, there is certainly a ticking-clock element to negotiations, given that Spring Training camps were scheduled to open within two weeks’ time, and Opening Day is scheduled for March 31.  If the “publicity stunt” sentiment is shared by the union members at large and the MLBPA doesn’t agree to FMCS mediation, it would represent yet another setback in talks (or lack thereof) between the two sides.

Kumar Rocker Could Pitch In Independent League Before Re-Entering MLB Draft

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Right-hander Kumar Rocker, whom the Mets selected with the No. 10 overall pick last summer but ultimately did not sign, is now mulling the idea of pitching with an independent team before re-entering the 2022 draft, Vanderbilt coach Tim Corbin tells Aria Gerson of The Tennessean.

Prior to the 2021 college season, Rocker and teammate Jack Leiter were both among the many names rumored to be in consideration for the No. 1 overall selection in the draft. He instead “fell” to the tenth overall selection — Louisville catcher Henry Davis went first overall to the Pirates; Leiter went second to the Rangers — and within hours of the draft was expected finalize an over-slot agreement with the Mets. Rocker’s No. 10 slot came with a value of more than $4.7MM, but the Mets were said to be preparing to sign the righty for a $6MM bonus that was more commensurate with his potential top-of-the-draft status.

However, as the signing deadline approached weeks later, the reports emerged that the Mets had elbow concerns following Rocker’s physical. A contract was never finalized, and Rocker went unsigned. Then-general manager Zack Scott stated after the fact that failing to reach a deal was “clearly not the outcome we had hoped for,” adding that the team “wish[ed] Kumar nothing but success moving forward.” Rocker’s advisor, Scott Boras, issued his own statement at the time, wherein he declared that “independent medical review by multiple prominent baseball orthopedic surgeons” had proven Rocker to be healthy. The Mets received the No. 11 pick in the 2022 draft as compensation for not signing Rocker.

Whatever triggered the Mets’ concern, it hasn’t resulted in any major physical setbacks for Rocker since the draft. There’s no indication that surgery was ever required, and Corbin tells Gerson that Rocker, who did not return to pitch for the Commodores in his senior season, “looks as good as he’s ever looked” and appears to be in good health.

Rocker’s path to reentering the draft would be uncommon but not unheard of. Back in 2005, after right-hander Luke Hochevar controversially chose not sign with the Dodgers following his No. 40 selection, he went on to pitch for the Fort Worth Cats of the independent American Association in the spring of 2006. The Royals selected Hochevar with the No. 1 overall pick in 2006.

A similar scenario unfolded with right-hander Aaron Crow, who did not sign with the Nationals after being selected ninth overall in 2008. Crow signed with the Fort Worth Cats and was selected 12th overall by Kansas City in 2009. Back in 1997, outfielder J.D. Drew followed the indie ball path after choosing not to sign with the Phillies. More recently, righty Carter Stewart signed a six-year contract worth more than $7MM with the SoftBank Hawks in Japan after failing to come to an agreement with the Braves, who’d selected him at No. 8 overall in 2018. As with Rocker, medical concerns following the player’s physical derailed talks between Atlanta and Stewart.

It’s anyone’s guess how the entire gambit will work out for Rocker — if he even pitches on the independent circuit at all this season. That will largely depend on his performance and even more so on his health. So long as Rocker’s stuff looks similar to his Vandy days, he should still be viewed as a first-round talent. The 6’5″, 245-pound righty was dominant with the Commodores in 2021, after all, pitching to a 2.73 ERA with 179 strikeouts and 39 walks through 122 innings (36.5% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate). Scouting reports on Rocker credit him with a plus fastball that can reach the upper-90s, a plus-plus slider (70 on the 20-80 scale) and an average or better changeup.

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