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Padres Among Teams Interested In Matt Olson

By Steve Adams | February 22, 2022 at 10:59pm CDT

Whenever transactions are again permitted to take place, A’s first baseman Matt Olson is among the most prominent names who’ll be discussed on the trade market. The 2021 All-Star and two-time Gold Glover has already been linked to the Yankees, Rangers and Braves, among others, and Dennis Lin of The Athletic suggests in his latest mailbag column that the Padres figure to be “in the mix” on Olson as well. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has already at least touched base with the Oakland front office as part of a broader sweep of exploratory trade talks throughout the league, per Lin.

Interest notwithstanding, the Padres seem like a long shot to actually pull off a deal involving Olson for myriad reasons. San Diego already has Eric Hosmer installed at first base and signed for another four seasons at a total of $59MM. The Friars have reportedly pursued various trade scenarios involving Hosmer in an attempt to create payroll flexibility and reduce their luxury-tax ledger, but those efforts have unsurprisingly come up short.

Hosmer’s eight-year, $144MM deal with the Padres was widely panned from the start, and the first baseman’s tepid .264/.323/.415 batting line (99 wRC+) since signing hasn’t made the final four years of the contract any more appealing (though it should be noted that the contract is frontloaded, with Hosmer earning $20MM in 2022 and $13MM annually from 2023-25).

The universal designated hitter is viewed as something of a foregone conclusion by now, so one can imagine a scenario where Hosmer spends more time at DH and Olson plays first base. However, that’d still move the Padres’ payroll north by a good margin. Olson is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $12MM in 2022 before commanding one more raise in his final arbitration season in 2023. San Diego already has about $199MM on the books for the 2022 season, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, in addition to about $215MM worth of luxury-tax obligations. The Padres narrowly exceeded the luxury tax in 2021, but it’s unclear whether they’d be willing to do so again in 2022 — particularly if it’s by a larger margin. Lin notes that owner Peter Seidler has “steadfastly declined” to discuss payroll and luxury tax to this point.

That $215MM figure is a substantial factor in the Padres’ reported efforts to move Hosmer and/or right fielder Wil Myers (who’s owed $21MM in the final season of a six-year, $83MM extension himself). Perhaps if the Padres could find a way to shed one or both salaries, the subsequent luxury breathing room could then be make a potential Olson acquisition more feasible. That, however, would require time to be on the Padres’ side — which is not the case. Post-lockout transactions are expected to be frenetic, and it doesn’t figure to be easy for Preller & Co. to find a trade involving Hosmer or Myers. The San Diego front office has been investigating trades involving the pair for at least the past year, after all — and longer than that with regard to Myers. If an Olson acquisition is predicated on moving Hosmer and/or Myers, it’s hard to imagine there’d be time to complete that deal then circle back to the A’s.

Some might suggest that the Padres simply try to send Hosmer back to Oakland as part of a deal, offering better prospects in return to push a deal across the finish line. That scenario appears decidedly unlikely, though. The cost on Olson figures to be sky-high in the first place, and the driving factor behind Oakland’s ostensibly looming sell-off is a desire to pare payroll. Taking on Hosmer’s deal runs counter to that. Lin speculates that the Padres could try to engineer a three-team swap that places Hosmer with a third team and Olson in San Diego, but that’s obviously an even more ambitious undertaking than simply finding a taker for Olson in a more straightforward two-team deal.

One wild card in all of this is the uncertainty surrounding the status of the luxury tax/competitive balance tax itself. The tax thresholds are a key talking point in collective bargaining talks between the league and the Players Association. The MLBPA is seeking major increases to the tax thresholds, beginning with a jump all the way to $245MM this coming season and cresting with a $273MM threshold in 2026. The league, meanwhile, has only been willing to offer far more marginal increases: $214MM in 2022-23 and incremental increases up to $222MM in 2026. MLB is also seeking to greatly increase the penalties for crossing the threshold, which the MLBPA considers a nonstarter.

It’s possible that whatever middle ground is reached will come with enough of an uptick in the first threshold that the Padres could technically squeeze Olson into the fray without needing to pay the tax. However, the Padres are also facing needs elsewhere on the roster — namely in one corner outfield spot. If the hope is to add an outfielder and/or deepen the pitching staff or bench at all, then San Diego would be looking at shoehorning more than just Olson’s salary into the puzzle.

All of that is based on a theoretical stance that Padres ownership is deterred by the luxury tax alone, but we can’t know that for certain. Last year’s bottom-line payroll of nearly $174MM shattered the former franchise-record payroll by more than $60MM. The current $199MM projection further trounces that number, and adding Olson and any others to the mix would bring the Padres well north of $200MM in actual 2022 salaries (and quite a bit higher in terms of AAV-based luxury calculations). It would require an unprecedented level of spending for the Padres, and we can’t know at what point ownership will simply be uncomfortable with further expenditures. It’s possible they’ve already reached that juncture.

To sum up a bit, there’s good reason to expect the Padres will indeed try to make something happen on the Olson front. Preller has shown time and again that he’ll always explore creative options when marquee talents are available. San Diego hired manager Bob Melvin away from the A’s earlier this offseason, and Melvin would surely love to have his former franchise first baseman follow him down I-5. If the Padres were to somehow move Hosmer, they’d have an opening at first base. It all makes sense on paper, and various permutations of Olson-to-San Diego deals or three-team blockbusters involving Olson, Hosmer, Myers and top prospects make for fun hypotheticals with Major League transactions approaching a three-month standstill.

At the end of the day, however, there are so many moving parts involved even in these theoretical exercises that it’s hard to see the Padres finding a way to make the pieces work. Still, even a tangential Padres involvement in the Olson market is of some note. Their lurking presence could carry implications on the asking price Oakland can put forth to other clubs, and if trade talks with other suitors drag on long enough post-lockout, it’d only give the Padres more time to pull off their latest trade-market stunner.

MLB: Spring Training Games Postponed Until At Least March 5

By Steve Adams | February 18, 2022 at 10:59pm CDT

Major League Baseball announced Friday that Spring Training games will not begin until at least March 5. A delay to the start of Spring Training was a foregone conclusion amid the ongoing labor strife between the league and the players association, but today’s announcement now makes the delayed schedule official.

“We regret that, without a collective bargaining agreement in place, we must postpone the start of Spring Training games until no earlier than Saturday, March 5th,” MLB said in a statement. “All 30 clubs are unified in their strong desire to bring players back to the field and fans back to the stands. The Clubs have adopted a uniform policy that provides an option for full refunds for fans who have purchased tickets from the Clubs to any Spring Training games that are not taking place.”

There’s no clear timetable for when the two parties might reach a resolution. Headway of any kind has been nonexistent to this point, with yesterday’s meeting between MLB and the MLBPA reportedly lasting just 15 minutes. The league confirmed in today’s statement, however, that the parties will be back at the table on Monday and expect to negotiate daily throughout the week.

“We are committed to reaching an agreement that is fair to each side,” MLB’s statement reads. “On Monday, members of the owners’ bargaining committee will join an in-person meeting with the Players Association and remain every day next week to negotiate and work hard towards starting the season on time.”

Daily meetings between the two sides next week would be the closest thing to urgency displayed since the lockout was implemented on Dec. 2. Commissioner Rob Manfred described the lockout as a means of “jumpstarting” negotiations, but the league then waited more than six weeks to send a counteroffer to the union. In total, since the lockout was implemented more than 11 weeks ago, the two parties have had a reported six in-person meetings. Meeting on a daily basis next week nearly doubles that total.

Fans, of course, have rightly expressed considerable frustration with the lack of progress and, perhaps even more confounding, the lack of actual negotiating between the two parties. The delay to the beginning of the spring schedule is the clearest indicator yet of a legitimate possibility that regular-season games will be lost to the discord. Manfred last week called the potential for lost regular-season games a “disastrous outcome for the industry” before expressing optimism that Opening Day would take place on March 31, as scheduled.

Manfred added that the league would “ideally” like to get in a four-week Spring Training, though the chances of that appear slim. An agreement would likely need to be reached at some point next week, which would then give teams and players a week (or a bit more) to report to camp and gear up for games beginning on or around the March 5 date cited in today’s announcement. Even that would leave clubs with a bit shy of four weeks of exhibition games, but a March 5 kickoff for Cactus League and Grapefruit League play would ultimately “only” result in about a week’s worth of lost spring contests. Spring Training games had been scheduled to commence on Feb. 26. Pitchers and catchers were scheduled to begin reporting to camp this week.

The MLBPA issued the following statement in response to the league’s announcement:

“MLB announced today that it ’must’ postpone the start of spring training games. This is false. Nothing requires the league to delay the start of spring training, much like nothing required the league’s decision to implement the lockout in the first place. Despite these decisions by the league, Players remain committed to the negotiating process.”

MLB Suggests New CBA Would Need To Be In Place By End Of February To Begin Regular Season On Time; Parties Plan To Meet More Frequently

By Anthony Franco | February 17, 2022 at 10:59pm CDT

Last weekend, Major League Baseball made its most recent collective bargaining proposal to the MLB Players Association. Evan Drellich of the Athletic tweeted at the time that MLB had informed the union of what it viewed as the latest possible date to work out an agreement for the regular season to begin on March 31 as scheduled. This afternoon, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that date as February 28. In the league’s view, if no collective bargaining agreement is in place by the end of February, the regular season start date will have to be pushed back.

It’s not clear whether the MLBPA agrees with that assertion. Perhaps the union thinks a deal could be worked out a few days into March without interruption to the beginning of the season. Yet simple math dictates that a new CBA would need be in place within around two weeks to avoid a delay. Opening Day is scheduled for exactly six weeks from now. Teams will need time to conduct the remainder of their offseasons while players will need some exhibition play to work back into game shape. MLB commissioner Rob Manfred said last week he viewed four weeks as an appropriate amount of time for Spring Training. Players had a three-week training period during 2020 Summer Camp, and Manfred suggested repeating that process would be insufficient.

MLB could also lift the lockout and allow the games to proceed in the absence of a new CBA. The league certainly isn’t going to take that course of action, though, leaving little time for an agreement if they’re to avoid delays. Manfred expressed optimism about that possibility last week, but the latest developments on the CBA front seem to leave little reason to believe there won’t be some form of delay.

In the week since Manfred met with the media, both MLB and the MLBPA have made one core economics proposal. Each party came away generally dissatisfied with the other’s offer, and the chances of them bridging the still-significant gaps within the next two weeks seem very slim.

With time dwindling, Jeff Passan of ESPN reports (on Twitter) that MLB and the MLBPA are planning to conduct multiple bargaining sessions next week, perhaps meeting every day beginning Monday. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet hears (Twitter link) that MLB has expressed some willingness to move towards the union’s demands on the competitive balance tax and efforts to get players paid earlier in their careers.

Notably, Nicholson-Smith adds in a second tweet that the union has informed the league they’d be unlikely to agree to playoff expansion in 2022 if the regular season were shortened. Expanding the postseason is a key objective for MLB, which would stand to benefit greatly from the ability to market extra games to television partners. The league has sought a 14-team playoff, while the union has expressed a willingness to go to 12 teams. However, Nicholson-Smith’s report indicates there’s some chance the MLBPA will refuse to go beyond 10 postseason teams this year if any regular season games are lost, thereby costing players game checks.

MLBPA Drops Push For Universal Two-Year Arbitration, Expands Pre-Arb Bonus Pool In Latest CBA Offer

By Mark Polishuk | February 17, 2022 at 4:47pm CDT

4:47 pm: MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes observes (on Twitter) that the union’s proposed Super Two expansion — had it been in effect this winter — would have gotten around 79 more players to their first year of arbitration. However, Dierkes notes that MLB seemingly remains unwilling to alter the existing Super Two setup in any form.

1:18 pm: Today’s collective bargaining meeting between representatives from the league and the MLB Players Association lasted only 15 minutes, though deputy commissioner Dan Halem and MLBPA chief negotiator Bruce Meyer continued speaking in a side meeting for about 20 minutes afterward (according to The Athletic’s Evan Drellich).

The session appeared to center around two new proposals put forward by the union, as per several reporters (including ESPN’s Jeff Passan and The Washington Post’s Chelsea Janes). The MLBPA had been looking to move the qualifying threshold for arbitration eligibility to two-plus years of service time rather than the current threshold of three-plus years plus all Super Two-eligible players. Now, the union has now dropped that demand and replaced it with a large increase in the number of players who would be eligible for Super Two status. In the previous CBA, the top 22 percent of players who had between two and three years of service time became Super Two-eligible, and thus eligible for a fourth year of salary arbitration — today’s proposal saw the MLBPA ask that 80 percent of players now qualify as Super Twos.

In addition, the union also actually increased the amount of the bonus pool it wants devoted to pre-arbitration players. Whereas the MLBPA began with a $105MM figure and lowered it to $100MM in subsequent talks with the owners, the union has now bumped that asking price up to $115MM. This number reflects the larger number of players that the MLBPA wants to be eligible for extra money in this bonus pool, with the union wanting the top 150 players as averaged by fWAR and bWAR. In the owners’ previous offer, the top 30 pre-arb players would be eligible for a $15MM bonus pool.

Whether these changes by the MLBPA constitute a significant move in MLB’s direction will, of course, lie in the eye of the beholder. Simply moving from all two+ players being arbitration eligible to 80% of them could move a large amount of money toward MLB, and likely is viewed by the players as a significant concession.

Given how the league has been adamantly against any changes to arbitration eligibility, the MLBPA’s request for such a big increase in Super Two eligibility is likely to be flatly denied. Where this might lead, however, is some increase in the Super Two threshold whatsoever. Even if the 80% number is viewed by MLB as an extreme ask, if the owners counter with a smaller increase, the two sides might eventually find some level of acceptable common ground between 22% and 80%.

Getting the league to budge even slightly off their position of not altering the arbitration eligibility would count as some level of a win for the union, as it would help achieve their goal of getting more money to players at an earlier point in their careers. It would also set impacted players up for more money through the arbitration process as a whole, given the larger number of players getting a fourth arb year and then subsequent raises in their other three arb years.

The increase in the bonus pool figure is tied to both the Super Two ask and that broader “get more money to more younger players” goal. Because that $115MM would now be spread over 150 players instead of $100MM over 30 players, more pre-arbitration players would get some extra cash. However, as observed by Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, this overall proposal from the union actually counts as a concession to the owners, since it would somewhat lower the bar for future arbitration cases in general.

The MLBPA did not alter their previous demands for increases to the luxury tax (to $245MM for the initial threshold) and to the minimum salary (to $775K), according to The Score’s Travis Sawchik. Beyond the 80% Super Two demand and the $115MM bonus pool, it doesn’t appear as if the union made any other changes from its previous offers — and as for today’s new proposal, the league “was not excited,” Janes tweets. It isn’t known when the two sides will next meet in regards to the bigger-picture economic issues or when MLB might counter the players’ current offer, though Janes reports that the league and MLBPA are slated to meet tomorrow to talk about non-economic issues.

Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2022

By Tim Dierkes | February 17, 2022 at 11:00am CDT

At some point, the MLB lockout will end and teams will be scrambling to address their arbitration eligible players. We’ve updated this post, removing players no longer on 40-man rosters. We’ve also moved traded players to the correct teams and added official service time as well as notes for pre-tender agreements.

Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for 11 years.

In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting comps for each individual player.

As a disclaimer, I should note that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.

The Super Two cutoff is 2.116 in Major League service time. The service time figures below are official. We’ll make adjustments to any projection below the league minimum salary, once a new minimum is established. Also, please note that contracts signed prior to the non-tender deadline aren’t generally considered to be normal arbitration comparables.

If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription.

Angels (3)

Max Stassi (5.049) – $2.7MM
Mike Mayers (4.020) – $2.2MM
Tyler Wade (3.088) – $700K

Astros (6)

Rafael Montero (5.138) – $3.1MM
Aledmys Diaz (5.100) – $4.0MM
Phil Maton (4.047) – $1.4MM
Ryne Stanek (4.038) – $2.1MM
Josh James (3.005) – $700K
Framber Valdez (2.163) – $3.2MM

Athletics (10)

Sean Manaea (5.157) – $10.2MM
Chris Bassitt (5.130) – $8.8MM
Chad Pinder (5.047) – $2.8MM. Signed for $2.725MM prior to NT deadline
Matt Chapman (4.109) – $9.5MM
Matt Olson (4.103) – $12.0MM
Tony Kemp (4.098) – $2.2MM. Signed for $2.25MM prior to NT deadline
Frankie Montas (4.015) – $5.2MM
Lou Trivino (3.163) – $2.9MM
Deolis Guerra (3.071) – $900K. Signed for $815K prior to NT deadline
Ramon Laureano (3.014) – $2.8MM

Blue Jays (10)

Ross Stripling (5.115) – $4.4MM
Teoscar Hernandez (4.097) – $10.0MM
Adam Cimber (3.156) – $1.5MM
Trevor Richards (3.084) – $1.1MM
Ryan Borucki (3.066) – $800K
Danny Jansen (3.050) – $1.5MM
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (2.157) – $7.9MM
Tim Mayza (2.156) – $1.2MM
Trent Thornton (2.150) – $900K
Cavan Biggio (2.129) – $1.7MM

Braves (10)

Adam Duvall (5.151) – $9.1MM
Dansby Swanson (5.047) – $10.1MM
Luke Jackson (5.019) – $3.8MM
Guillermo Heredia (4.112) – $1.6MM. Signed for $1MM prior to NT deadline
A.J. Minter (3.154) – $2.1MM
Max Fried (3.148) – $7.1MM
Mike Soroka (3.146) – $2.8MM
Sean Newcomb (3.123) – $900K
Tyler Matzek (3.019) – $1.5MM
Austin Riley (2.138) – $4.3MM

Brewers (12)

Jace Peterson (5.142) – $1.3MM. Signed for $1.825MM prior to NT deadline
Omar Narvaez (5.089) – $4.1MM
Hunter Renfroe (4.165) – $7.6MM
Brent Suter (4.161) – $2.3MM
Josh Hader (4.115) – $10.0MM
Brandon Woodruff (3.161) – $7.1MM
Willy Adames (3.105) – $4.0MM
Corbin Burnes (3.049) – $4.0MM
Eric Lauer (3.033) – $2.7MM
Jandel Gustave (3.027) – $800K. Signed for $675K prior to NT deadline
Adrian Houser (3.010) – $2.3MM
Rowdy Tellez (3.004) – $1.9MM. Signed for $1.94MM prior to NT deadline
Luis Urias (2.120) – $2.4MM

Cardinals (7)

Alex Reyes (4.056) – $3.3MM
Harrison Bader (4.030) – $3.7MM
Jack Flaherty (4.006) – $5.1MM
Jordan Hicks (4.000) – $1.0MM
Giovanny Gallegos (3.085) – $2.8MM
Dakota Hudson (3.066) – $1.7MM
Tyler O’Neill (3.059) – $3.5MM

Cubs (3)

Willson Contreras (5.108) – $8.7MM
Ian Happ (4.036) – $6.5MM
Harold Ramirez (2.124) – $1.6MM

Diamondbacks (7)

Luke Weaver (4.112) – $2.7MM
Noe Ramirez (4.083) – $1.8MM. Signed for $1.25MM prior to NT deadline
Caleb Smith (4.078) – $2.1MM. Signed for $2MM prior to NT deadline
Carson Kelly (3.161) – $3.0MM
Christian Walker (3.124) – $2.7MM
Jordan Luplow (3.112) – $1.5MM
J.B. Wendelken (3.028) – $900K. Signed for $835K prior to NT deadline

Dodgers (4)

Trea Turner (5.135) – $19.8MM
Cody Bellinger (4.160) – $16.1MM. Signed for $17MM prior to NT deadline
Julio Urias (4.117) – $8.8MM
Caleb Ferguson (3.093) – $700K

Giants (7)

Dominic Leone (5.168) – $1.5MM
Curt Casali (5.151) – $2.0MM
Darin Ruf (4.138) – $2.6MM
Jarlin Garcia (4.114) – $1.8MM. Signed for $1.725MM prior to NT deadline
John Brebbia (4.078) – $1.0MM. Signed for $837.5K prior to NT deadline
Austin Slater (3.147) – $2.0MM. Signed for $1.85MM prior to NT deadline
Mike Yastrzemski (2.128) – $3.1MM

Guardians (7)

Austin Hedges (5.166) – $3.8MM
Amed Rosario (4.062) – $5.0MM
Franmil Reyes (3.115) – $4.4MM
Shane Bieber (3.097) – $4.8MM
Bradley Zimmer (3.077) – $1.5MM
Cal Quantrill (2.132) – $2.8MM
Josh Naylor (2.127) – $1.2MM

Mariners (10)

Adam Frazier (5.075) – $7.2MM
Mitch Haniger (5.048) – $8.5MM
Drew Steckenrider (4.094) – $2.1MM
Tom Murphy (4.092) – $1.7MM
J.P. Crawford (3.163) – $5.0MM
Diego Castillo (3.118) – $2.6MM
Paul Sewald (3.072) – $1.8MM
Casey Sadler (3.035) – $1.3MM. Signed for $1.025MM prior to NT deadline
Dylan Moore (3.000) – $1.6MM
Luis Torrens (2.118) – $1.6MM

Marlins (10)

Jesus Aguilar (5.082) – $7.4MM
Richard Bleier (5.074) – $2.5MM
Joey Wendle (4.088) – $4.0MM
Garrett Cooper (4.053) – $3.0MM
Dylan Floro (4.053) – $2.4MM
Brian Anderson (4.031) – $4.5MM
Jacob Stallings (3.149) – $2.6MM
Elieser Hernandez (3.118) – $1.4MM
Pablo Lopez (3.093) – $2.5MM
Jon Berti (2.168) – $1.2MM

Mets (13)

Edwin Diaz (5.121) – $10.4MM
Seth Lugo (5.082) – $3.7MM
Miguel Castro (5.079) – $2.6MM
Brandon Nimmo (5.042) – $6.0MM
Trevor Williams (5.027) – $3.8MM
Dominic Smith (3.146) – $4.0MM
J.D. Davis (3.137) – $2.7MM
Tomas Nido (3.089) – $900K
Jeff McNeil (3.069) – $2.8MM
Joey Lucchesi (3.067) – $1.6MM
Drew Smith (3.034) – $900K
Pete Alonso (3.000) – $7.3MM
Luis Guillorme (2.167) – $700K

Nationals (8)

Josh Bell (5.053) – $10.0MM
Joe Ross (5.018) – $3.0MM
Juan Soto (3.134) – $16.2MM
Erick Fedde (3.099) – $1.9MM
Victor Robles (3.033) – $1.7MM
Austin Voth (2.127) – $1.0MM
Tanner Rainey (2.127) – $800K
Andrew Stevenson (2.127) – $900K. Signed for $850K prior to NT deadline

Orioles (6)

Trey Mancini (5.015) – $7.9MM
Anthony Santander (3.162) – $3.7MM. Signed for $3.15MM prior to NT deadline
Jorge Lopez (3.102) – $1.5MM. Signed for $1.5MM prior to NT deadline
Paul Fry (3.075) – $1.1MM. Signed for $850K prior to NT deadline
Tanner Scott (3.059) – $1.0MM
John Means (3.007) – $3.1MM

Padres (8)

Joe Musgrove (5.063) – $8.9MM
Dinelson Lamet (4.130) – $4.6MM
Emilio Pagan (4.091) – $2.3MM. Signed for $2.3MM prior to NT deadline
Jorge Alfaro (4.083) – $2.7MM
Victor Caratini (4.051) – $2.1MM
Tim Hill (3.112) – $1.4MM. Signed for $1.325MM prior to NT deadline
Austin Adams (3.015) – $1.0MM. Signed for $925K prior to NT deadline
Chris Paddack (3.000) – $2.1MM

Phillies (4)

Zach Eflin (5.018) – $6.0MM
Jose Alvarado (4.088) – $1.9MM
Rhys Hoskins (4.053) – $7.6MM
Seranthony Dominguez (3.131) – $800K. Signed for $725K prior to NT deadline

Pirates (4)

Ben Gamel (5.029) – $2.9MM. Signed for $1.8MM prior to NT deadline
Chris Stratton (4.100) – $2.2MM
Kevin Newman (3.046) – $2.2MM
Bryan Reynolds (2.163) – $4.5MM

Rangers (4)

Isiah Kiner-Falefa (4.000) – $4.9MM
Willie Calhoun (3.033) – $1.6MM
Brett Martin (2.151) – $1.1MM
Taylor Hearn (2.140) – $1.1MM

Rays (14)

Matt Wisler (5.042) – $1.8MM
Manuel Margot (5.012) – $5.0MM
Tyler Glasnow (4.158) – $5.8MM
Ji-Man Choi (4.076) – $3.5MM. Signed prior to NT deadline for $3.2MM
Ryan Yarbrough (3.147) – $4.4MM
Yonny Chirinos (3.137) – $1.2MM
Yandy Diaz (3.122) – $2.7MM
Austin Meadows (3.074) – $4.3MM
Andrew Kittredge (3.070) – $1.6MM
Jalen Beeks (3.070) – $600K
Francisco Mejia (3.062) – $1.5MM
Jeffrey Springs (3.055) – $1.0MM
Brett Phillips (3.013) – $1.2MM
Nick Anderson (3.000) – $900K

Red Sox (7)

Kevin Plawecki (5.167) – $2.0MM. Signed for $2.25MM after NT deadline
Ryan Brasier (4.109) – $1.4MM. Signed for $1.4MM prior to NT deadline
Rafael Devers (4.070) – $11.1MM
Nick Pivetta (3.166) – $3.2MM
Alex Verdugo (3.078) – $3.2MM
Christian Arroyo (3.036) – $1.1MM
Josh Taylor (2.121) – $1.1MM

Reds (10)

Tyler Naquin (5.033) – $3.6MM
Luis Cessa (4.131) – $1.6MM
Luis Castillo (4.101) – $7.6MM
Amir Garrett (4.099) – $2.2MM
Jesse Winker (4.080) – $6.8MM
Tyler Mahle (4.018) – $5.6MM
Kyle Farmer (3.129) – $2.2MM
Jeff Hoffman (3.105) – $1.1MM
Lucas Sims (3.014) – $1.2MM
Nick Senzel (2.150) – $1.1MM

Rockies (9)

Daniel Bard (5.103) – $4.8MM. Signed for $4.4MM prior to NT deadline
Carlos Estevez (5.022) – $3.2MM
Kyle Freeland (4.144) – $7.0MM
Robert Stephenson (4.049) – $1.1MM
Raimel Tapia (4.020) – $3.9MM
Ryan McMahon (4.006) – $5.5MM
Garrett Hampson (3.030) – $1.8MM
Tyler Kinley (3.014) – $1.0MM. Signed for $1.025MM prior to NT deadline
Peter Lambert (2.116) – $600K

Royals (7)

Andrew Benintendi (5.062) – $9.3MM
Adalberto Mondesi (4.088) – $3.2MM
Brad Keller (4.000) – $5.2MM
Cam Gallagher (3.106) – $900K
Scott Barlow (3.030) – $2.4MM
Ryan O’Hearn (3.002) – $1.4MM
Nicky Lopez (2.139) – $2.0MM

Tigers (8)

Michael Fulmer (5.157) – $5.1MM
Joe Jimenez (4.061) – $1.8MM
Jeimer Candelario (4.038) – $5.9MM
Jose Cisnero (4.020) – $1.9MM
Victor Reyes (3.075) – $1.3MM
Spencer Turnbull (3.020) – $1.8MM
Dustin Garneau (3.015) – $1.6MM
Harold Castro (2.141) – $1.5MM

Twins (6)

Taylor Rogers (5.145) – $6.7MM
Tyler Duffey (5.074) – $3.7MM. Signed for $3.8MM prior to NT deadline
Mitch Garver (4.045) – $3.1MM
Caleb Thielbar (3.131) – $1.2MM. Signed for $1.3MM prior to NT deadline
Jharel Cotton (3.052) – $1.2MM. Signed for $700K prior to NT deadline
Luis Arraez (2.121) – $2.0MM

White Sox (3)

Lucas Giolito (4.080) – $7.9MM
Adam Engel (4.058) – $2.2MM
Reynaldo Lopez (4.004) – $2.8MM

Yankees (16)

Jameson Taillon (5.110) – $4.7MM
Joey Gallo (5.103) – $10.2MM
Gary Sanchez (5.086) – $7.9MM
Aaron Judge (5.051) – $17.1MM
Chad Green (5.050) – $4.1MM
Wandy Peralta (4.168) – $1.7MM
Jordan Montgomery (4.153) – $4.8MM
Gio Urshela (4.127) – $6.2MM. Signed for $6.55MM prior to NT deadline
Luke Voit (3.169) – $5.4MM
Gleyber Torres (3.162) – $5.9MM
Miguel Andujar (3.117) – $1.7MM
Clay Holmes (3.031) – $1.0MM
Jonathan Loaisiga (3.022) – $1.7MM
Domingo German (3.017) – $2.1MM. Signed for $1.75MM prior to NT deadline
Lucas Luetge (3.015) – $1.1MM. Signed for $905K prior to NT deadline
Kyle Higashioka (3.005) – $1.2MM

The arbitration projections were originally published 10-11-21. Additional information was added 2-17-22.

Juan Soto Declined $350MM Extension Offer From Nationals Before Lockout

By Anthony Franco | February 16, 2022 at 2:16pm CDT

The Nationals offered superstar outfielder Juan Soto a 13-year, $350MM contract extension before the start of the lockout, reports Enrique Rojas of ESPN (Spanish-language link). Soto confirmed the team made him a long-term offer but tells Rojas he and his agents at the Boras Corporation prefer to proceed year-by-year via arbitration. He remains under club control through 2024, giving him three more seasons before hitting the open market.

According to Rojas, the offer did not contain any deferrals and would have gone into effect for the upcoming season had Soto accepted. The Nats have deferred payments in many of their recent big-ticket signings. Each of Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg, for instance, agreed to push a substantial portion of their earnings beyond the term of the contract. That reduced the present-day value of those deals, but the offer to Soto would not have had the same effect. The specific payout structure of the offer is unclear, but overall, it included an average annual value just south of $27MM through the 2034 campaign.

Some fans will surely bristle at the notion of Soto leaving $350MM on the table. It’s obviously a life-changing sum of money, and it’d have gone down as the third-largest guarantee (before accounting for inflation) in MLB history. However, a deeper look at Soto’s situation makes it unsurprising that wasn’t enough to forego the possibility of an even more lucrative payday down the line.

Soto already has a strong amount of financial security, lessening his incentive to forego future earning power for up-front payments. He reached arbitration early as a Super Two qualifier last offseason, eventually agreeing to an $8.5MM salary for 2021. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to earn around $16.2MM during his second trip through the process this year. That’s nearly $25MM that Soto has all but already earned.

Assuming he continues to perform as one of the league’s best players, Soto will see significant jumps in each of his final two arbitration seasons. He could approach or top the $27MM per-year salary the Nationals offered on the extension by his final year of arbitration. Mookie Betts’ $27MM agreement over the 2020-21 offseason is the largest ever for an arbitration-eligible player, and Soto’s Super Two qualification gives him a higher jumping-off point for future earnings than Betts had at the time.

As another frame of reference, take the 14-year, $340MM extension Fernando Tatís Jr. signed with the Padres last February. Soto’s deal narrowly tops that marker, but he’s negotiating from a greater position of financial strength. Tatís was four years from free agency at the time he signed his extension; Soto is currently three years away. And Tatís had not qualified for Super Two, so he was still a season from his first significant arbitration payment. Soto, as mentioned, has already banked $8.5MM and is in line for nearly double that amount this year. If one viewed Soto and Tatís as similarly valuable players, it’s hardly surprising the former’s comparatively stronger negotiating position set him up to decline a guarantee $10MM north of Tatís’ deal.

One can argue about precisely where Soto fits in discussion for the greatest players in the sport, but there’s no doubt he’s among the top few. He’s been one of the game’s best hitters from the moment he debuted as a 19-year-old in May 2018. Soto’s offensive production has checked in at least 43 percentage points above the league average, by measure of wRC+, in all four of his MLB seasons. He’s particularly taken off over the past couple years, posting numbers that look like they’re from a video game.

Since the start of the 2020 season, Soto has hit .322/.471/.572 across 850 plate appearances. He’s walked in an absurd 21.9% of his trips while striking out just 14.2% of the time, showcasing the sport’s best strike zone awareness. Among qualified hitters, only defending NL MVP Bryce Harper (.426) has an OBP within 50 points of Soto’s mark. Soto trails just Trea Turner (.330) in batting average, while Tatís (.598) and Harper (.594) are the only two batters with better slugging figures.

Soto has done all this as an astoundingly young player. He turned 23 last October, setting himself up to reach free agency in advance of his age-26 campaign. Thus it’s no surprise he’s viewed by most as being on a path towards at least baseball’s first $400MM contract, and it’s plausible he could top $500MM on the open market. Scherzer topped the $40MM average annual value mark this winter (by a wide margin, at $43.33MM). A $40MM AAV over a 13-year term — which would “only” run through Soto’s age-38 season — would mean a $520MM guarantee, for instance.

There’s plenty of time before free agency comes into focus for Soto, but he and agent Scott Boras are no doubt keenly aware of the chance he has at setting contractual milestones. Soto told Rojas he still envisions himself spending his entire career in Washington, but it seems his current plan is to allow the next few seasons to play out in hopes of getting to the open market. After kicking off an organizational retool at last summer’s trade deadline, it remains to be seen how quickly the Nats plan to install another competitive roster around Soto in hopes of capturing their second World Series title of his tenure.

Ryan Zimmerman Announces Retirement

By Steve Adams and Anthony Franco | February 15, 2022 at 2:05pm CDT

Two-time All-Star and 2019 World Series champion Ryan Zimmerman announced his retirement from Major League Baseball today. The decision marks an end to a 17-year MLB career spent entirely as a member of the Nationals organization.

Zimmerman released a statement via his agency CAA Baseball, the full extent of which can be found on Twitter. Therein, the 37-year-old thanks the Washington fanbase, Nationals’ ownership and front office, his former teammates, coaches/training staff and agents, and his family. “Although my baseball career has come to an end, my family and I will continue to be heavily involved in the DMV community. You have given so much to us over the past 17 years; it is now time for us to give back to you. We look forward to continuing many of our community programs and starting new ones in the future. Our kids will be raised here, as this is now our home, and we couldn’t be more excited. So this is not a goodbye but more of a ’see you around.'”

The franchise made the transition from the Expos to the Nationals over the 2004-05 offseason, relocating from Montreal to Washington. That summer, they selected Zimmerman with the fourth overall pick coming out of the University of Virginia. The first official National draftee, the right-handed hitter would debut in the major leagues just a couple months later. So kicked off an MLB career that’d span nearly two decades and cement him as one of the most important players in franchise history.

Zimmerman hit very well as a September call-up in 2005, and he was pencilled into the starting lineup at the beginning of the following year. Immediately, he proved a quality all-around performer. He hit .287/.351/.471 as a rookie, pairing that above-average offensive output with excellent third base defense. He narrowly finished behind Hanley Ramírez in that season’s NL Rookie of the Year balloting, but Zimmerman would land some accolades before long.

Between 2007-08, he posted slightly above-average offensive marks while continuing to rate as one of the league’s best glovemen at the hot corner. Yet his career really took off in 2009, when Zimmerman made important strides in both his power output and walk rate en route to a .292/.364/.525 showing. That checked in 30 percentage points above the league average offensive performance (130 wRC+), and Zimmerman collected his first career All-Star appearance, Silver Slugger award and Gold Glove while garnering some down-ballot MVP support.

Not only did he back up that breakout showing the following season, he arguably got even better. Zimmerman hit .307/.388/.510 that year, collecting another Silver Slugger and a few more MVP votes. Despite the accolades, he was perhaps a bit underrated over that two-year run as the team stumbled to a pair of last-place finishes. Only five position players (Albert Pujols, Evan Longoria, Joe Mauer, Carl Crawford and Chase Utley) topped Zimmerman by FanGraphs’ Wins Above Replacement measure between 2009-10.

Zimmerman had signed an early-career contract extension before his 2009 breakout, locking him in as a building block for a franchise that finally emerged from a long-term rebuild a few years into the 2010’s. He didn’t quite maintain his 2009-10 level of play as he got into his late-20s, but Zimmerman remained a solidly above-average regular for the next few seasons. He combined for a .281/.348/.464 showing between 2011-13, playing a key role in the Nats winning the division in 2012 for the first time since relocating.

Along the way, Washington again inked Zimmerman to a long-term extension. This one, a $100MM guarantee that ran through 2019 with full no-trade protection, promised to keep him a member of the organization for at least the vast majority of his career. Injuries limited his workload between 2014-15, and he turned in an uncharacteristically poor season in 2016. Yet Zimmerman rebounded late in the deal.

Working exclusively as a first baseman as he got into his 30s, he posted one of the better showings of his career in 2017. Zimmerman popped a career-best 36 homers and hit .303/.358/.573 over 576 plate appearances that year, earning his second All-Star nod in the process. Recurring injuries kept him from ever again exceeding 350 at-bats in a season, but Zimmerman continued to hit at an above-average level when healthy in 2018.

Remaining with the Nationals throughout his career paid off most handsomely in 2019. Zimmerman only played in 52 regular season games, but he was no doubt a revered member of the clubhouse. He saw a fair bit of action during Washington’s run to a World Series title, collecting his first ring in his age-34 campaign. Zimmerman opted out of the 2020 season owing to COVID-19 concerns but returned for a final year with the Nats in 2021.

While he hit free agency at the end of last year, there’s no question the Nationals would have welcomed him back had he wanted to continue playing. General manager Mike Rizzo said in October that “Ryan Zimmerman has a place on this roster as a player as long as Mike Rizzo is the GM” and flatly stated he had a standing MLB contract offer on the table. Yet Zimmerman pointed to a desire to spend more time with his family and suggested he didn’t feel he had the drive to fully commit to playing another season (via Jesse Dougherty and Barry Svrulga of the Washington Post).

Zimmerman concludes his playing career having left an indelible mark on the franchise, highlighted by the “Mr. National” moniker long ago bestowed upon him by fans. His #11 jersey seems a lock to be retired by the organization, and he’ll no doubt be finely remembered by the Washington fanbase.

Altogether, Zimmerman compiled a .277/.341/.475 line across parts of 16 big league seasons. He totaled 1846 hits, 284 home runs and 417 doubles, driving in 1061 runs and scoring 963 times. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference valued his career around 40 WAR, and BRef estimates he compiled a bit more than $134MM in earnings. Zimmerman earned MVP votes in four separate seasons, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he garners some votes for the Hall of Fame when he appears on the ballot five years from now. MLBTR congratulates him on an excellent career and wishes him all the best in retirement.

Post-Lockout Trade Candidates: 27 Regulars Who Could Plausibly Change Teams

By Anthony Franco | February 14, 2022 at 10:59pm CDT

In recent days, MLBTR has taken a look at some players who could find themselves on the move between the conclusion of the lockout and the start of the season. First, Tim Dierkes looked at the league’s 14 likeliest trade candidates. Steve Adams then ran through some impact players who, to varying degrees, could find themselves in trade rumors whenever transactions resume.

Today we’ll look at other regulars who we could envision changing uniforms in the relatively near future. Acquiring any of the players on today’s list wouldn’t be quite as splashy as landing the stars we covered last week, but it’s easy to envision any one of them assuming an important, regular role on a new team.

Before we get into the list, a quick note on methodology. In defining “plausible” trade candidates, we looked at players we felt had somewhere between a 20% and 50% chance of being dealt before the start of the season. It’s not meant to be an exhaustive list of trade possibilities — almost any player around the league could theoretically move if another team made the right offer — but it’s meant to capture a tier of regulars we wouldn’t be surprised to see change hands. In an exercise of this nature, there has to be a somewhat arbitrary line that delineates the last of the players who, in our view, are “plausible” trade candidates. Players like Gary Sánchez and Jesús Aguilar were discussed internally but fell just on the other side of that line.

Now, on to the list. The players are ordered by what we feel to be their likelihood of getting traded (all arbitration projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz):

John Means, Orioles SP

Buster Olney of ESPN reported in November that the Orioles were “dangling” Means in trade talks. Baltimore’s rebuilding and seemingly amenable to offers on anyone on the roster, but it remains to be seen how actively they’ll push to make their top starting pitcher available. With Means controllable through 2024 and projected for a modest $3.1MM salary, the O’s needn’t force a deal this offseason.

The 28-year-old presents a tricky evaluation for teams. He got off to an excellent start to the season, posting a 2.28 ERA (albeit with a 4.20 FIP) through his first 71 innings. Means then landed on the injured list with a shoulder strain. After returning in July, he posted a 4.88 ERA down the stretch, watching his strikeout rate tumble almost six percentage points in the process. The medical evaluation will be critical, but teams that are comfortable with the state of Means’ shoulder moving forward might expect him to regain the strong mid-rotation form he showed early in the year.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Rangers SS/3B

Kiner-Falefa has been a solid regular for the Rangers for the past couple seasons. He spent 2020 at third base, then was tasked with moving up the defensive spectrum to shortstop last year. Defensive Runs Saved loved his glovework at short; Statcast’s Outs Above Average did not. Kiner-Falefa finished third in the 2021 Fielding Bible shortstop award voting. There’s not much question he’s a very good defender at the hot corner, and most teams would probably at least feel comfortable with him moonlighting at shortstop if need be.

Texas remade their middle infield in free agency, signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Kiner-Falefa could kick back to third base, but the Rangers have top prospect Josh Jung nearing big league readiness at the position. Controllable for two more seasons and projected for a $4.9MM salary, he could stick around as a utility guy. But if another team buys him as a plus defender at shortstop, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Texas ship him somewhere he can continue playing everyday. Kiner-Falefa’s .271/.312/.357 line fits better at the bottom of a lineup, but he brings good contact skills and a solid infield glove to the table. MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored the possibility of a Kiner-Falefa trade at greater length this afternoon.

Raimel Tapia, Rockies LF

Reports out of Denver have suggested the Rockies could look to move Tapia, projected for a $3.9MM salary in his second-to-last arbitration-eligible season. The Rox need to bolster an offense that was among the league’s worst last year, and they’re seemingly planning to make a splash in the corner outfield. That’d probably push Tapia — who’s spent almost his entire MLB career in left field — out of the everyday lineup.

Tapia has never hit at the level one would hope from an everyday left fielder. One could argue he’s better suited for a fourth outfield role regardless. He’s a plus runner with good bat-to-ball skills, though, and he ranked among Baseball America’s top 50 overall prospects back in 2017. It’s certainly not out of the question another team takes a flier on him, particularly if the Rockies are willing to take a minimal return after acquiring his replacement.

Chris Paddack, Padres SP

The pre-lockout agreement with Nick Martínez bumped a bunch of the Friars’ younger arms down a peg on the rotation depth chart. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored, that could pave the way for them to move one of their controllable starters. If they do, Paddack looks the likeliest of the bunch. He’s arbitration-eligible and projected for a $2.1MM salary. That’s certainly affordable, but the Padres could be looking to open some payroll space after exceeding the luxury tax threshold last year.

Paddack has had back-to-back down seasons after a promising rookie campaign. But he’s still only 26 years old, boasts pristine control, and teams can dream on him recapturing his 2019 form. That he’s controllable for three seasons could be of particular appeal to teams like the Rangers and Nationals (who expressed interest at last summer’s deadline) who might be eyeing 2023 as a more plausible contention year.

Ryan Yarbrough, Rays SP

Yarbrough has been a flexible member of the Rays pitching staff for the past few years. He’s worked variably as a traditional long reliever, a bulk man behind an opener and as a true starting pitcher. Yarbrough posted an ERA of 4.13 or lower in each of his first three seasons, but he scuffled to a 5.11 mark in 2021. That came without meaningful changes to his strikeout and walk numbers, though, and Yarbrough remained excellent at avoiding hard contact.

The Rays likely anticipate the southpaw will return to form, but his price is escalating. Tampa Bay is already projected for a franchise-record payroll, so it wouldn’t be surprising if they move some of their arbitration-eligible players for pre-arb or minor league talent. Yarbrough is projected for a $4.4MM salary and remains under team control through 2024.

Austin Meadows, Rays LF/DH

Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times wrote over the weekend that the Rays could be open to moving Meadows, who is projected for a $4.3MM salary. Controllable through 2024, Meadows would be a long-term option for Tampa Bay or any potential acquiring team, but the Rays have proven willing to field offers on almost anyone on the roster. And with the aforementioned payroll outlook for the typically low-spending club, the front office figures to be amenable to ways to pare back costs.

Meadows is coming off a decent season, in which he hit .234/.315/.458 with 27 homers over 591 plate appearances. That marked a bounceback from a below-average offensive showing during the shortened 2020 schedule, but it’s a fair bit shy of his career-best .291/.364/.558 line the season before that. Meadows isn’t a great defender, so he needs to mash to be a star. He did that in 2019, but he’s otherwise been a good-not-great hitter. That’s still a valuable player to have on hand, but unless the Rays anticipate him replicating his peak season this year, it’d be sensible to listen to offers.

Tony Kemp, Athletics 2B/LF

Kemp has bounced around the league a bit in recent seasons. He plays second base and left field, but advanced metrics have pegged him as a fringy defender at the keystone. Kemp doesn’t bring a ton of power to the table, and he’s already 30 years old. It’s not the easiest profile to make work, explaining why he has yet to find a long-term home.

There’s no questioning Kemp’s 2021 results, though. Over 397 plate appearances, he hit .279/.382/.418. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference pegged him as worth around three wins above replacement. Kemp has excellent plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills, and he could be trending towards a late-career emergence in the mold of former A’s second baseman Tommy La Stella. The market for teams on the hunt for second base help is pretty thin. Kemp, who avoided arbitration on a $2.25MM salary and is controllable through 2023, would be an affordable pickup if the A’s move him as part of their anticipated post-lockout efforts to trim payroll and reboot the roster.

Manuel Margot, Rays OF

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently looked at the possibility of the Rays making Margot available. He’s projected for a $5MM arbitration salary as he enters his final year of club control. That’s a reasonable salary for a player of Margot’s caliber, but Tampa Bay has plenty of cheaper, controllable outfielders on hand, and top prospect Josh Lowe looks ready to step into an everyday role somewhere in the grass after a monster season in Triple-A.

It’s not out of the question Tampa trades away multiple outfielders, but if they move the more expensive Kevin Kiermaier, Margot sticking around to handle center field is certainly possible. The latter might have broader appeal around the league, though. Not only is he set to make around a third of Kiermaier’s remaining guarantees, Statcast credited Margot with a league-best +16 Outs Above Average in the outfield last year. He’s never been more than an average hitter, but acceptable offense coupled with Gold Glove caliber defense is a very valuable player. There’s also a dearth of center fielders available in free agency at this point.

Max Kepler, Twins OF

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently broke down Kepler’s trade candidacy at great length. Guaranteed $16.25MM through 2023 and controllable for 2024 via club option, he’d be an affordable target for teams seeking outfield help. Yet Kepler’s offensive production has ticked down towards league average following what seemed to be a breakout showing in 2019. The Twins might prefer to hold onto him in hopes he rediscovers that form, but they just extended Byron Buxton and have former top prospects Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach in the fold as corner outfield options. A Kepler deal could be a creative way to address some of the team’s other issues in the starting rotation or at shortstop.

Danny Jansen/Alejandro Kirk, Blue Jays C

The Jays’ catching depth has been a topic of conversation throughout the offseason. Would Toronto part with one of their controllable backstops to land help in the rotation or infield? The signing of Kevin Gausman probably diminishes their need to land an impact starter via trade, although they’re likely to at least look for depth pieces.

Reese McGuire is a capable backup catcher who’s out of minor league options. Top prospect Gabriel Moreno is rapidly approaching and could be in the majors by the end of the season. Jansen offers a solid bend of power and defensive acumen, while Kirk has otherworldly bat-to-ball skills and an elite minor league track record. Toronto doesn’t have to move anyone from this group, but it could be an opportunity to consolidate their catching depth for help elsewhere on the roster.

Amed Rosario, Guardians SS/CF

Cleveland acquired Rosario from the Mets as part of the Francisco Lindor trade last offseason. His offensive numbers (.282/.321/.409) were fine, although neither Defensive Runs Saved nor Statcast was fond of his glovework at shortstop. Rosario’s aggressive approach at the plate will probably keep him from emerging as the star many envisioned he’d become as a prospect, but he has alright career hitting numbers, runs well and could be an option for teams at any of the up-the-middle positions on the diamond (aside from catcher).

The Guardians have a lot of infield depth, with several talented prospects in the high minors and already on the 40-man roster. With their seemingly annual need for outfield help, a Rosario trade could help balance the roster. Cleveland could also just give him more run in center or left field themselves, but it might be more straightforward to trade him to an infield-needy team with an outfield surplus. Rosario is projected for a $5MM salary and controllable through 2023.

Josh Bell, Nationals 1B

I covered Bell’s trade candidacy in greater length in late December. The Nationals are taking a step back in 2022, and he’s entering his final year of club control. A projected $10MM salary might scare away some suitors, but Bell would be a notable offensive upgrade for many teams around the league. The switch-hitter posted a .261/.347/.476 season-long mark, and he had an excellent 277/.381/.506 line with more walks than strikeouts after the All-Star Break.

Garrett Cooper, Marlins 1B/COF

Cooper has looked like a viable trade candidate for a few seasons. He’s part of a corner outfield/first base rotation in Miami that got a bit more crowded when the Fish signed Avisaíl García. The Marlins have suggested they could use García as their regular center fielder, but that’s less than ideal. If they land a center fielder after the lockout and push García to a more suitable right field role, Cooper might find himself squeezed for playing time.

A late bloomer, Cooper’s already 31 years old. He has quietly been a very productive hitter when healthy, though, including an excellent .284/.371/.478 line (133 wRC+) in 383 plate appearances since the start of 2020. Health is a big caveat for Cooper, who has had stints on the injured list in all five of his MLB seasons and missed the second half of last year with a left elbow injury. As MLBTR’s TC Zencka explored in December, he’d returned to taking batting practice and figures to be ready for 2022. Projected for a modest $3MM salary with an additional season of control thereafter, he could be an interesting flier, particularly for NL teams looking to add offense if/when the universal designated hitter is finalized.

Anthony Santander, Orioles RF/LF

Santander’s name has been floated around the rumor mill in years past. The Orioles are rebuilding, and he’s more of a complimentary piece than a likely member of the long-term core. Santander is limited to the corner outfield and has a very aggressive approach, though, making it crucial he makes plenty of contact and hits for power. He did that in the shortened 2020 season en route to a .261/.315/.575 line, but he couldn’t follow up on that success.

Last season, Santander had a couple injured list stints and struggled to a .241/.286/.433 mark. He signed for $3.15MM to avoid arbitration in November and remains controllable through 2024. Given their competitive window, the O’s would certainly listen to offers on Santander. But it remains to be seen whether there’ll be sufficient demand that Baltimore wouldn’t be better off hanging onto him and hoping he approximates his 2020 performance over the first few months of next season. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently explored Santander’s trade candidacy in greater depth.

Zach Plesac, Guardians SP

Plesac isn’t yet arbitration eligible and he’s controllable for another four seasons. The Guardians might simply prefer to hang onto him, particularly after their 2021 season was derailed by rotation injuries. Yet as mentioned with regards to Rosario, Cleveland has significant concerns in the outfield. They’ve dealt key starting pitchers over the past couple seasons, seemingly confident in their ability to continue to develop less-heralded prospects into capable rotation cogs.

If they were to deal a starter, Plesac would seem the likeliest candidate. The Guardians aren’t about to rebuild, and moving Shane Bieber or Aaron Civale might be too significant a blow to their hopes of contending in 2022. Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill might still have upside Cleveland’s hoping to unlock. Plesac’s small sample excellence in 2020 was probably inflated by a regional schedule against Central-division teams that, by and large, weren’t good offensively. That season aside, he hasn’t posted particularly impressive strikeout rates. But he’s got excellent control, gets a decent number of grounders, and should be a solid bet for league average rotation innings over the next few seasons.

Merrill Kelly, Diamondbacks SP

The D-Backs were the worst team in the National League last season. They don’t seem to have the appetite for a full rebuild, but Kelly’s entering his final year of club control. At age 33, he’s probably not an extension candidate, so Arizona figures to be open to moving him.

Kelly’s not an overpowering arm. He posted a 4.44 ERA over 158 innings last season, striking out only 19.5% of batters faced. He throws plenty of strikes, though, and he gets a decent number of grounders. Playing on a modest $5.25MM salary, Kelly would be an eminently affordable pickup for contenders looking to stabilize the back of the rotation.

Mitch Garver/Ryan Jeffers, Twins C

Garver missed a good chunk of last season after suffering a gruesome injury. During his 243 plate appearances, he mashed at a .256/.358/.517 clip with 13 home runs (137 wRC+). That’s two of the past three seasons with some of the best offensive output of any catcher in baseball. He’s controllable for two seasons and projected for a modest $3.1MM salary. Jeffers hasn’t yet hit arbitration-eligibility and still has minor league options remaining. He struck out too often as a rookie, but he hit for power and is a well-regarded defender who entered the year among the sport’s top catching prospects.

As with Kepler, a trade of Garver or Jeffers would probably be about dealing from an area of surplus to address the rotation or shortstop. Both players could plausibly be regular catchers next season, and they’d lose some of their value if penciled into the DH role regularly. Given Garver’s injury troubles, Minnesota might prefer to hold their depth behind the dish.

Elieser Hernández, Marlins SP

The Marlins have reportedly fielded offers on their arbitration-eligible starting pitchers this winter, perhaps in search of controllable outfield help. Miami already thinned their rotation depth a bit by including Zach Thompson in the Jacob Stallings deal, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if they make one more move in that vein.

Over the past two years, Hernández owns a 3.84 ERA in 77 1/3 innings with very strong strikeout and walk rates (26.3% and 5.7%, respectively). He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher who’s likely to always have some difficulty keeping the ball in the yard. He missed most of 2021 recovering from a pair of long-term injuries (biceps inflammation and a quad strain). Because of those drawbacks, he won’t be in as much demand as rotation mate Pablo López. Yet another team may try to take a shot on Hernández’s promising strikeout/walk profile, particularly since he’s only projected for a $1.4MM salary and controllable through 2024.

Chris Stratton, Pirates RP

I covered Stratton’s trade candidacy at greater length in December. He’s a 31-year-old reliever controllable for two seasons on a rebuilding team. The Bucs aren’t going to view him as a core piece of the rebuild, and it stands to reason they’d welcome the opportunity to pick up an intriguing low-level prospect. Over the past two seasons, Stratton has been the kind of capable if unexciting middle relief piece contending teams need. He won’t bring back a franchise-changing return, but at a projected $2.2MM salary, he should draw some interest.

Cole Sulser, Orioles RP

Sulser had a quietly strong second half with the Orioles, occasionally factoring into their closing mix. A late bloomer, he’ll be 32 by Opening Day. So while they’re under no contractual pressure to move him, the rebuilding O’s would certainly listen to offers. After putting up a 2.70 ERA with a 28.4% strikeout rate, he should be of interest to contenders. Sulser isn’t yet arbitration eligible and can be controlled through 2025.

Adrian Houser/Eric Lauer, Brewers SP

The Brewers certainly aren’t obligated to trade either of Houser or Lauer, both of whom are coming off strong seasons. Still, the Brew Crew already have a vaunted top three of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta and prospects Aaron Ashby and Ethan Small are at or nearing the big leagues. Might Milwaukee plug one of the younger arms into the rotation and flip a veteran back-end starter for offensive help?

Adalberto Mondesi, Royals 3B/SS

Mondesi’s an enigmatic player. He brings an enviable combination of power and speed and has enough athleticism to play a competent or better shortstop. He also has among the worst strikeout and walk numbers of any regular position player in MLB. Perhaps most alarming, he’s dealt with enough injury issues in recent years that Royals president of baseball operations Dayton Moore expressed some doubt about his ability to play more than 100 games per season regularly.

Nicky Lopez played well enough to supplant Mondesi at shortstop last year. Bobby Witt Jr. will probably take that position early in 2022, pushing Lopez somewhere else on the dirt. Whit Merrifield is still around as a second base option. Kansas City might have enough infield depth to explore a Mondesi trade, although it’d be a bit of a sell-low on a player with obvious physical gifts who’s controllable through 2023. He’s projected for a $3.2MM salary.

Kyle Hendricks, Cubs SP

Hendricks is guaranteed $29.5MM through the next two seasons, with a vesting option that could keep him in Chicago through 2024. The Cubs have moved most of their core players dating back to last offseason, but Hendricks remains on the North Side. That might be attributable to some uncharacteristic struggles, as the righty’s coming off a career-worst 4.77 ERA with unimpressive peripherals.

Hendricks has never struck batters out or fared exceptionally well in the eyes of ERA estimators, though. Until last season, his actual run prevention handily outperformed metrics like FIP and SIERA as he thrived on exceptional command. He’ll probably bounce back, even if he may never recapture his Cy Young-caliber, 2.13 ERA form from 2016. With the amount of teams on the hunt for starting pitching, there’d no doubt still be demand if the Cubs made Hendricks available. Will they? Perhaps, since they’re not likely to compete in 2022. Yet their early-offseason activity — signing Yan Gomes and Marcus Stroman, claiming Wade Miley — has suggested they may not be keen to punt next season entirely.

Trey Mancini, Orioles 1B

The Orioles aren’t going to compete in 2022, and Mancini is ticketed for free agency at the end of the year. Most players in his situation would be very straightforward trade candidates, but the first baseman is a fan favorite and reported clubhouse leader who made an inspiring return to the diamond last year after missing the 2020 campaign battling colon cancer.

That Mancini returned to play in 147 games after facing that kind of life obstacle is a remarkable achievement. It’s undeniable, though, that his production slipped relative to his excellent 2019 campaign. Mancini’s .255/.326/.432 line was only marginally above average, and he played exclusively first base and designated hitter. It certainly wouldn’t be surprising to see him bounce back into a middle-of-the-order presence as he gets further away from beating cancer, but demand for his services might be limited until his production rebounds. If that’s the case, it’s probably not worth it for the O’s to trade him away this offseason. He’s projected for a $7.9MM salary, but Balitmore’s 2022 payroll ledger is wide open.

MLBPA “Unimpressed” By MLB’s Latest Offer In CBA Negotiations

By Darragh McDonald | February 12, 2022 at 11:25pm CDT

In a meeting this afternoon, Major League Baseball presented its latest offer to the Players’ Association as part of the ongoing collective bargaining negotiations. The meeting lasted less than an hour, according to Joon Lee of ESPN, with the players coming away “unimpressed” — a word used by Lee, Tim Healey of Newsday and Bob Nightengale of USA Today. On the other hand, Michael Silverman of the Boston Globe reports that the league is “underwhelmed by underwhelmed MLBPA.”

Some of the details of MLB’s 130-page proposal are shared by The Athletic’s Evan Drellich and ESPN’s Jesse Rogers. There was very slight movement on the bonus pool issue, something that had come up in previous bargaining sessions. The league had previously agreed to the MLBPA proposal for a bonus pool, funded by central revenues, to reward pre-arbitration players. Despite agreeing on the proposal, the league and the union have remained far apart on the size. The players initially proposed a total of $105MM, with the league countering by offering $10MM. The players later dropped their ask to $100MM, with the owners today increasing their offer to $15MM.

There was also slight modification to MLB’s proposal regarding the Competitive Balance Tax thresholds. Previously, the plan was to have a limit of $214MM for 2022 through 2024, increasing to $216MM in 2025 and $220MM in 2026. Today’s proposal retained that $214MM number for 2022 and 2023, bumped to $216MM in 2024, and then $218MM and $222MM in the final two years of the deal. The players, on the other hand, have been looking for the threshold to be in the $245MM-260MM range for the five years covered by the deal.

The proposed tax rates for surpassing these thresholds hasn’t changed since MLB’s last proposal, although the draft pick compensation was slightly modified. Under the previous proposal, teams surpassing the first threshold (spending less than $234MM on a proposed $214MM tax threshold) would have to surrender a third round draft pick, though that was dropped to no draft penalty for today’s offer. However, teams would still be paying the same 50 percent tax on every dollar spent within that $214-$234MM area.

As for the league minimum salary, the league made two proposals, one of them involving a flat amount of $630K for all pre-arbitration players. The second proposal involved a tiered system, with players making $615K until they reach one year of service time, $650K for between one and two years’ service time and $725K for those between two and three years’ service time. This is only a slight modification of the previous proposal, in which the tiers were $615K, $650K and $700K, meaning the last tier was the only one to change.

Another proposed change was in relation to MLB’s previous proposal for dealing with service time manipulation. Under the previous proposal, top-100 ranked prospects that were selected to a team’s Opening Day roster could net their team an extra draft pick by finishing in the top five in voting for a major award (the MVP, Cy Young, or Rookie Of The Year) during one of his arbitration-eligible seasons. Under the league’s latest proposal, a team can receive two picks if the player finishes in the top three of voting for multiple major awards. Rogers uses the example of Kris Bryant, as if the Cubs had kept Bryant on their roster for their entirety of the 2015 and 2016 seasons, Chicago would have earned two bonus picks for Bryant’s awards success (the 2015 ROY, the 2016 NL MVP).

In some smaller proposed changes, MLB also proposed a limit on how many times a player could be optioned each year at five. There is currently no limit on how many times a player with options could be shuttled between the majors and the minors, and teams have increasingly taken advantage of this non-rule by constantly moving pitchers back and forth from Triple-A to always ensure fresh relievers are available for in-game maneuvers.

While a five-option cap would still allow teams quite a bit of flexibility for promotions and demotions, it would at least cut down on extreme situations, like how the Rays recalled and demoted right-hander Louis Head 12 times last season. MLB’s proposal for a five-option cap comes with some as yet unknown strings attached, Drellich tweets, which concerns the MLBPA. The union is in favor of a limit to the number of options in general, but their proposal would cap the number of moves at four.

In regards to the amateur draft, the league’s new proposal would reintroduce the “draft and follow” concept, where teams could draft a player and send them to junior college for a year before signing them. In addition, prospects who submit to a pre-draft physical would be guaranteed 75% of their slot value and cannot be “failed” by the physical. This is seemingly in response to Kumar Rocker, who was drafted by the Mets with the 10th overall pick last year, but the two sides didn’t reach a deal since the Mets were concerned by an elbow issue that arose in a post-draft physical. Bob Nightengale adds that the proposal includes an extra $23MM for bonuses given to drafted players and international signings.

If one wants to be optimistic about all of this, it can be said that progress was made and that the league made clear which items it considers negotiable and which it won’t budge on, thus laying the groundwork for the players to come back with their next counter. On the pessimistic side of things, the two sides remain far apart, and the league’s proposed changes in this latest offer are very modest, especially considering the ticking clock that is the scheduled start of Spring Training. Prior to the lockout, pitchers and catchers were scheduled to report this week and games were set to begin on February 26, and the possibility of a deal coming together before then is difficult to fathom.

This inevitably leads to the question of whether or not the regular season will begin as scheduled. It’s often been speculated that a deal would need to be in place by around March 1, in order for teams to have one month to conduct their remaining offseason business and for the players to have a proper Spring Training in advance of Opening Day on March 31. In relation to all this, Drellich reports that the MLB today presented the MLBPA with a calendar outlining when a deal would need to be in place in order to avoid such delays or cancellations. The exact specifications of this calendar aren’t known, though as Drellich notes, it’s unclear if the players would agree with this outlay from the league. As for next steps, Nightengale said that the MLBPA “is expected to submit counter proposals within a week.”

Post-Lockout Trade Candidates: Impact Players With A Chance To Move

By Steve Adams | February 11, 2022 at 11:00pm CDT

Earlier in the week, MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes published our list of the 14 players we consider to be the likeliest trade candidates following the ongoing MLB lockout. That list was the result of an extensive talk with Tim, myself and Anthony Franco, wherein we considered the possibility of more than 100 players and whether they could (or could not) viably change hands. While that Athletics-heavy list contained who we agreed to be the likeliest, it certainly didn’t represent every plausible trade candidate in our eyes.

As Tim noted within that post, we wound up sorting our list of plausible trade candidates into various buckets/tiers. The top 14 was simply the likeliest, regardless of contract or quality of player, but for the remainder of the exercise, we chose to categorize things based on how impactful a player might be to his new team. This, admittedly, is subjective. We didn’t establish a defined set of concrete parameters in labeling this group “impact” players; rather, we focused on mid-rotation (or better) starting pitchers, high-leverage relievers and hitters with recent All-Star-worthy performances (even if they didn’t necessarily result in an actual All-Star berth). Three wins above replacement in a given season wasn’t a firm cutoff, but we did ask at multiple points whether we a player had recently or could be reasonably expected/projected to turn in a 3-WAR season while sorting them.

Once these players were tiered, we further broke them down by whether they were legitimately plausible candidate to change teams or just someone whom other clubs would be trying to pry away. Basically, none of Tim, Anthony or myself would bat an eye to see Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas traded. Bryan Reynolds or Cedric Mullins, though? We’ll probably hear about teams trying to pry those players loose from their respective clubs (hence their inclusion), but a deal coming together seems like a long shot and would register as a mild surprise (if only because of the asking price and remaining club control).

As Tim explained, some of these players are interconnected. While the Reds have three starters who could plausibly change hands, we don’t necessarily think all three will move. It’s the same with the A’s roster. They could plausibly move multiple players — GM David Forst said amid November reports of a mandate to slash payroll that they’d have to listen on the whole roster — but that doesn’t mean the A’s are going to trade seven or eight players.

Anthony will follow this list up in the near future with a collection of solid regulars who we believe could change hands and/or will be in high demand following the lockout, but for now, here’s our second tier of trade candidates — legitimate impact players who could plausibly change teams but perhaps aren’t as likely to go as those listed by Tim earlier in the week…

Plausible/Decent Chance to Move

Luis Castillo / SP / Reds

The Reds’ offseason transactions since the close of the 2020 season have included a salary dump of Raisel Iglesias, non-tendering another quality reliever (Archie Bradley), trading Tucker Barnhart to Detroit, and placing Wade Miley on waivers rather than picking up a reasonable $10MM option. GM Nick Krall kicked off the 2021-22 offseason by declaring a need to “align our payroll to our resources.” Rumors of trades involving Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray (listed among our 14 likeliest candidates due to his age and larger price tag) and Tyler Mahle naturally followed.

Even if the Reds aren’t actively shopping the 29-year-old Castillo, teams will be calling to inquire, and Krall and his staff will be listening. The Reds probably aren’t going to shop him and simply let him go for the best offer, as they control him through 2023. They could always hold and market him again this summer or next offseason if no enticing offer materializes post-lockout.

Still, Castillo might be the best starting pitcher who could feasibly change hands. He got out to a brutal start in 2021, but over his final 22 starts, Castillo was excellent. He racked up 135 1/3 innings (six-plus innings per start) and notched a 2.73 ERA with a 26% strikeout rate, a 9.4% walk rate and a massive 59.9% ground-ball rate. Castillo’s ugly April/May results skew both his 2021 numbers and his collective numbers from 2019-21, but over the past three seasons he’s still posted a 3.61 ERA while fanning 27% of his opponents.

Maybe he’s not a true “ace,” but Castillo is a playoff-caliber starter for virtually any team. He’s projected to earn $7.6MM in 2022 and would be owed one more arbitration raise in 2023. Essentially, he’ll cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $20MM for the next two seasons — a bargain rate that should be reflected in a huge asking price from the Reds.

Tyler Mahle / SP / Reds

Mahle doesn’t have the name value that Castillo brings to the table, and his track record of success is shorter. Nonetheless, he’s blossomed into a sharp mid-rotation arm over the past two seasons, sporting a 3.72 ERA with a 28.1% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate. Unlike Castillo, he’s a fly-ball pitcher, which has at times bitten him at his bandbox of a home stadium; Mahle has given up 30 home runs in 227 2/3 frames dating back to Opening Day 2020, and 24 of them have come at home. He posted a 2.30 ERA away from Great American Ball Park in 2021 and, in his career, has a 5.09 ERA at home versus a 3.72 mark on the road.

A spacious home park would benefit Mahle perhaps even more than your average starter, although his penchant for yielding fly-balls will likely always make him a bit susceptible to the long-ball. Mahle has also been more of a guy who pitches into the sixth rather than completes six or seven frames (5 1/3 innings per start since 2020), but that’s increasingly common in today’s era of aggressive bullpen usage.

Mahle’s shorter track record may give some fans pause, but teams are likely comfortable projecting him as a quality arm based on the past two seasons of missing bats at a high level. And, that shorter track record has left him with a lower price point in arbitration, as he’s projected to earn $5.6MM in 2022. Like Castillo, he’s controlled through 2023, so there’s no immediate urgency to move him — especially given his affordable price tag. Still, teams will be calling, and the Reds can justifiably ask for a strong return.

Frankie Montas / SP / Athletics

Sticking with pitchers who have two remaining years of club control, Montas joins a long list of Athletics who could be traded post-lockout. Amid reports of a mandate to slash payroll, GM David Forst outwardly acknowledged back in November that the A’s will have to listen to offers on the majority of their roster.

Montas, unlike free-agents-to-be Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt, is controlled through 2023. And unlike Matt Olson and Matt Chapman, his projected $5.6MM salary is a bit easier for the A’s to stomach. That’s why Montas is in this “bucket” of our trade candidate rankings, but even if he’s not as likely to move as some of his teammates, a deal is certainly still plausible.

Though Montas isn’t without red flags — he served an 80-game PED suspension in 2019 and had never reached 100 innings in a big league season prior to 2021 — it’s hard to ignore the quality results. Since 2018, Montas has pitched 401 innings of 3.57 ERA ball with a 24.4% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate and 43.7% ground-ball rate. His swinging-strike rate has continued to improve, and this past season’s 26.9% strikeout rate was a career-best. He’ll turn 29 in May, and he’s an upgrade for any team’s rotation.

Tyler Glasnow / SP / Rays

Glasnow is the most talented name on this list and, when healthy, looked the part of a legitimate ace with Tampa Bay. From 2019-21, Glasnow tallied 206 innings with a 2.80 ERA and fielding-independent marks to match. He punched out a ridiculous 36% of his opponents, walked just 7.8 percent of them and kept the ball on the ground at a 45% clip. Among the 114 starting pitchers who totaled at least 200 innings in that time, Glasnow ranks tenth in swinging-strike rate and second to only Shane Bieber in his combined percentage of called and swinging strikes. Only Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole had higher strikeout rates.

With that type of profile, two years of team control remaining and a projected $5.8MM salary for the 2022 season, a healthy Glasnow would be a no-brainer for the Rays to keep. Of course, Glasnow is not healthy. He’s likely to miss most, if not all of the upcoming season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last August. Arb-eligible players who miss an entire season due to injury typically sign on for a repeat of their prior year’s salary, meaning that in 2023 Glasnow will likely pitch on the same salary as 2022. Using that same $5.8MM projection, the Rays would be looking at about $11.6MM for one season of Glasnow, when his workload would need to be monitored coming back from major surgery.

Glasnow’s career-high innings total in the Majors is 2018’s 111 2/3, and his career-high for any professional season is when he reached 155 innings between Triple-A and Pittsburgh combined back in 2017. Realistically, the Rays would probably be thrilled to get 100-120 innings from Glasnow in 2023 — and an $11-12MM price tag on that modest total is rather steep for a team with Tampa Bay’s general payroll concerns.

Other clubs would welcome the opportunity to take that chance, however. We’ve seen two-year pacts for Tommy John rehabbers like Drew Smyly ($10MM with the Cubs), Michael Pineda ($10MM with the Twins) and Garrett Richards ($15.5MM with the Padres). Glasnow’s price tag is toward the lower end of that spectrum in terms of dollars, but the cost of trading prospects also has to enter into the equation. For an arm of this caliber, however, there are plenty of teams that would take the plunge.

Glasnow, for his part, recently told Chris Rose that he strongly hopes to remain with the Rays (YouTube link). Perhaps there’s a contract to be worked out that could benefit both parties, but Glasnow himself acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding his status and that president of baseball operations Erik Neander will have to listen to some offers if and when other teams come calling.

Josh Hader / RP / Brewers

Teams have been trying to get their hands on Hader for years, and the Brewers have steadfastly refused all overtures. The reluctance is understandable, as Hader has established himself as arguably the best reliever in the sport. In 282 1/3 career innings, he’s posted a 2.26 ERA and fanned exactly four out of every nine batters faced. No longer being used for multiple innings at a time, Hader posted a career-best 1.23 ERA in 58 2/3 frames this past season. The homer he allowed to Freddie Freeman in the NLDS isn’t a great note on which to close a season, but looking at Hader’s broader playoff track record, he has a 1.88 ERA and 23-to-3 K/BB ratio in 14 1/3 innings.

Trading the game’s most impactful reliever wouldn’t be easy for president of baseball operation David Stearns, but Hader’s value is at its apex. He’s also projected to see his salary spike to $10MM in 2022, with a fourth and final arbitration raise coming in 2023. Hader is dominant, but the typically low-payroll Brewers are flirting with what would be a record $123MM payroll. It’s not accurate to suggest that the presence of a second powerhouse reliever, Devin Williams, makes Hader expendable, but Williams’ excellence would at least slightly soften the blow of a theoretical Hader trade.

Milwaukee could still stand to improve its offense, and moving Hader could both free up some financial resources and simultaneously net some immediate help for the big league lineup. The Brewers don’t have to move Hader now, to be clear. However, they probably wouldn’t move him in-season if they’re contending — meaning it’s now or next winter, when they’d be marketing one year and a $15MM+ salary. That would net far less long-term value. It’s a fine line to walk.

Joey Gallo / OF / Yankees

Gallo popped 13 homers in 58 games following a July trade from Texas to the Bronx, but it’s fair to say the deal didn’t work out as New York had hoped. Gallo’s strikeout rate, which had dipped a bit with the Rangers, spiked to 38.6% as a Yankee. The resulting .160/.303/.404 batting line in 228 plate appearances is one of the more bizarre slashes you’ll ever see from a regular player.

Struggles in New York aside, Gallo was hitting .223/.379/.490 through 388 plate appearances in Texas and had bashed 25 homers in that span — putting him on pace for what would’ve been his third career 40-homer season had he not dropped off with the Yankees.

Gallo has as much power as anyone in baseball, and he’s made himself into a strong defender in the outfield corners (who can handle center from time to time). However, he’s projected to earn $10.2MM in arbitration this season, and it’d be understandable if the Yankees were hesitant at that price based on his post-trade struggles. New York is projected to top $226MM in luxury tax concerns, so moving Gallo could prove beneficial if owner Hal Steinbrenner is again intent on dipping beneath the threshold (wherever that’ll ultimately lie in 2022).

The Yankees have Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks and Giancarlo Stanton as outfield options, with Estevan Florial serving as a possible reserve. Were they to give Gallo a change of scenery by moving him to a team seeking pop in the outfield, they could always sign a free agent to replenish some of the depth. It’s not clear that the Yankees will shop Gallo once the lockout lifts, but the New York Post’s Joel Sherman wrote about the possibility back in October, reporting within that as many as seven other teams tried to land Gallo at the deadline. If he’s on the block, there’ll be interest.

Longer Shots due to Asking Price and/or Remaining Club Control

Ramon Laureano / CF/ Athletics

Given Forst’s comments and the reports of forthcoming payroll reduction, it’s viable that anyone earning a salary of some note will at least be discussed. Laureano, projected to earn $2.8MM this coming season after his first trip through the arbitration process, also represents one of the few plausible center field options on the market, which should lead to plenty of teams inquiring on his availability.

Trading Laureano is more complicated than moving some of his teammates. He’s currently in the midst of an 80-game PED ban which, beyond raising questions about his performance to date, could come with major service time implications. Laureano still needs to serve 27 games of that suspension, which could impact his path to free agency. He currently has three years and 14 days of service time, meaning he’d need 158 days in 2022 to cross the threshold into four years of service and remain on track to hit the open market post-2024. There are only 187 days in a standard season, making it unlikely he’ll end up accruing the necessary time on the roster to get to that point. (Remember that off-days spent on the MLB roster count as a day of service.)

There’s always the small chance that some other factor impacts this trajectory (e.g. the ongoing labor talks, a potentially shortened 2022 schedule, a grievance filing), but as it stands, Laureano could wind up under team control through 2025 rather than 2024. An extra year of team control both heightens his appeal but also makes it tougher to trade him.

Beyond the service-time considerations, Laureano underwent core muscle surgery after the season, which adds another layer to a complicated scenario. But looking solely at Laureano’s numbers, he’s a difference-maker for a team in need of a center fielder (e.g. Phillies, Marlins, Guardians). A career .263/.335/.465 hitter with 25-homer pop, good speed and plus center field defense isn’t a hard sell.

Jesse Winker / OF / Reds

I explored Winker’s situation at length last week, with the bottom-line point being that it makes little sense to listen to offers on starting pitchers with two years of club control remaining (e.g. Castillo, Mahle, Gray) without doing the same on Winker. The 28-year-old slugger has had some issues with durability, doesn’t hit lefties well (though he’ll still draw his walks against them) and isn’t a great defender. That’s an odd trio of qualities to focus on when talking about someone’s trade candidacy, but the other side of the coin is more compelling: Winker’s production against right-handed pitching is at Bryce Harper/Juan Soto levels of brilliance.

Since 2020, Harper and Soto are the only two qualified hitters in baseball with a better mark than Winker’s 169 wRC+ against righties. In terms of more traditional slash metrics, he’s batting an outrageous .322/.417/.619 when holding the platoon advantage. With all the talent on the Reds’ roster, I think Cincinnati should be in aggressive, win-now mode. Krall’s early comments and their dealings since 2020 suggest otherwise, however, and if you’re going to listen on the other guys with four-to-five years of MLB service — why not listen on Winker as well? Cleveland, Colorado, Philadelphia and so many others are looking for offensive upgrades in the outfield corners.

Pablo Lopez / SP / Marlins

As is a common refrain on this list, the Marlins have no urgency to move Lopez, who’ll turn 26 in March. He was limited to 102 2/3 innings by shoulder issues last season and has yet to top 111 2/3 frames in a Major League season, but Lopez has been pretty darn good when healthy. From 2020-21, in particular, he’s compiled 31 starts and 160 innings of 3.26 ERA ball with a 26.4% strikeout rate and a 6.7% walk rate. He’s in his first trip through arbitration and projected for a highly reasonable $2.5MM salary.

So, why even bother considering a move? The Marlins are still hopeful of landing some help in center field, and they’re also so deep in pitching talent that it borders on comical. The old adage that a team can never have too much pitching always rings in the back of our minds, but the Marlins aren’t short on options beyond Lopez. Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rogers, Elieser Hernandez, Jesus Luzardo, Sixto Sanchez, Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett, Nick Neidert, Cody Poteet and Daniel Castano are all on the 40-man — and top prospect Max Meyer is quickly rising through the minors. Injured top prospect Jake Eder will be back in 2023.

Jose Ramirez / 2B, 3B / Guardians

The favorite subject of so many hypothetical trade scenarios from fans, Ramirez does feel likely to end up traded … at some point. The question is whether now’s the time. Cleveland has him for $11MM this year plus a $13MM option in 2023. Given Ramirez’s elite play, there’s little chance of the Guardians extending him beyond that 2023 season, but there’s also good sense in Cleveland taking another run at the AL Central with Ramirez as a focal point. The pitching is still excellent, and while the lineup clearly needs another bat or two, the 2022 payroll is currently projected at only $49MM. There’s room to add some help for Ramirez and Franmil Reyes, and a deep farm system could also provide some in-house upgrades.

It’s also impossible to look at the situation without accounting for public relations. We’re only a year removed from Cleveland trading Francisco Lindor in a wildly unpopular move, and many fans’ anger with further fueled by the team’s name change. The newly-named Guardians are looking to usher in a “new era” of Cleveland baseball, and trading their best player for a second straight offseason isn’t a great way to foster good will.

If the first half of the season goes poorly, I’d expect Ramirez to be among the most talked-about names at the 2022 trade deadline, and there’d be a much stronger chance he moves at that point. With regard to the offseason, however, there’s just not enough urgency to push something across the line unless Toronto or another on-paper suitor puts forth an over-the-top offer. Even then, fans who’ve already purchased new Guardians gear bearing Ramirez’s name are going to feel rather jilted. It’d be tough for the front office to make this move now.

Bryan Reynolds / OF / Pirates

Reynolds is the best player on a last-place team that’s squarely in the midst of a rebuild so it’s hardly a surprise that he’s been in trade rumors dating back to the summer. Rival teams know the Pirates are open for business, and it’s only natural they’d try to acquire a center fielder capable of posting a .302/.390/.522 slash like the one Reynolds logged in 2021.

On the one hand, there’s an argument that the rebuilding Buccos ought to listen on anyone — and they surely will. But on the other hand, Reynolds is 27 and controlled another four seasons. His trade value won’t diminish substantially if the Pirates hold onto him, giving the fans at least one recognizable and marketable star player. Reynolds is a Super Two player who’s projected to earn an eminently affordable $4.5MM in 2022, so there’s no financial pressure. Everyone has their price in a trade, especially on a team like the Pirates, but for some context, that price reportedly included Mariners uber-prospect Julio Rodriguez (and more) when the two teams last talked. Baseball America currently ranks Rodriguez as the No. 2 prospect in all of baseball.

Cedric Mullins / OF / Orioles

Most of what was written about Reynolds applies to Mullins. The Orioles’ breakout star put together a 30-30 season last year while hitting .291/.360/.518 and is controllable for another four seasons — through age 30. No one expects the Orioles to contend in 2022, but they’ll get a look at top prospects like Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez and D.L. Hall this year. Reinforcements from the farm are on the way, and it’s feasible that by 2023 (and certainly by 2024), they could be on the cusp of turning a corner. Mullins will be under control, affordable and in his prime at that point.

The Orioles aren’t going to declare anyone on their Major League roster “untouchable,” but Mullins would only be available for a staggeringly strong offer. A Mullins trade doesn’t seem likely, but teams are going to at least try to force GM Mike Elias’ hand.

Ketel Marte / 2B, CF / Diamondbacks

Teams have been trying to pry Marte from the D-backs for more than a year. Arizona reportedly took the extra step of plainly telling rival clubs in early July — weeks before the trade deadline — that Marte wouldn’t be moved. That probably didn’t stop clubs from trying, and teams will be trying again post-lockout. The Marlins, Yankees, Mariners and quite a few others have at least been speculatively linked to Marte, whose team-friendly deal heightens his appeal. Marte will earn $8MM in 2022, and his contract calls for a $10MM team option in 2023 and a $12MM team option in 2024.

Dating back to 2019, Marte boasts a .318/.374/.543 batting line with 48 dingers, 79 doubles, 11 triples and a lowly 14% strikeout rate (versus a 7.6% walk rate). He’s rated poorly in center field, from a defensive standpoint, but is well-regarded defensively at second base. A 28-year-old switch-hitter with power, some speed, plenty of versatility and a grand total of $30MM owed to him over the next three years ($21MM of which isn’t even guaranteed) is wildly appealing. The D-backs, however, have shown little inclination to move him in the past, and assistant GM Amiel Sawdaye echoed that sentiment in November, calling Marte a “cornerstone” player around whom the D-backs can build.

Zac Gallen / SP / Diamondbacks

Twenty-six years old and controlled another four seasons, Gallen is precisely the type of pitcher that pitching-needy teams like the Rangers, Twins, Nationals and so many others would dream of acquiring. A forearm issue slowed him in 2021 and limited his workload, but Gallen has now made 50 starts in the Majors with a 3.46 ERA, a 27.6% strikeout rate and a 9.6% walk rate to show for it. He’s already been traded twice — going from St. Louis to Miami in the Marcell Ozuna deal before being flipped to Arizona in what amounted to a rare prospect-for-prospect swap sending Jazz Chisholm back to the Fish.

The D-backs didn’t even trade Merrill Kelly at this past summer’s deadline when he was a fourth starter with 1.5 cheap years left on his contract. It’s hard to imagine they’ll be excited about the idea of giving up four seasons of Gallen — particularly when his stock is down a bit, owing to last season’s arm issue. Gallen closed out the 2021 season quite well, with a 3.19 ERA and 52-to-15 K/BB ratio in his final 48 frames (eight starts). Sawdaye listed Gallen as a “cornerstone” player right alongside Marte, adding that the D-backs never plan to fully punt on a given season. Their signing of Mark Melancon for two years and $14MM meshes with the notion that this is not a team on the brink of a full-fledged teardown. Teams can try to nab Gallen, but it’d likely require some young MLB-ready talent going back to Arizona. Overall, the odds are low.

David Bednar / RP / Pirates

One of several pieces acquired in last winter’s Joe Musgrove trade, the 27-year-old Bednar stepped up and solidified himself as the Pirates’ likely closer in 2022. Through 60 2/3 innings, Bednar posted a tiny 2.23 ERA with a 32.5% strikeout rate, an 8.0% walk rate and a 41.4% grounder rate. Bednar yielded only five home runs all season (0.74 HR/9) and averaged 97 mph on his heater. He looks the part of a legitimate high-leverage weapon, and he’s controlled for five more years — all the way through 2026.

With such good results, a pre-arbitration salary and so much team control remaining, Bednar probably isn’t going anywhere. (As a bonus, he’s a Pittsburgh-area native.) The Pirates can’t (or at least won’t) simply trade every player who shows some semblance of value, after all. That said, the last thing most rebuilding clubs need is a high-end closer, and bullpen help is always in demand. Bednar will be 29 or 30 by the time the Pirates are realistically turning a corner, and the attrition rate on relievers is higher than anywhere else on the diamond. The argument for capitalizing on his value right now is pretty clear, but as with the rest of this “long shot” list, it’s hard to see a team meeting what would surely be a pretty substantial asking price.

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