Cubs To Sign Colten Brewer

The Cubs are apparently in agreement with Colten Brewer on a contract for 2024, per a post from Brewer’s own Instagram page. It’s not yet clear if the arrangement is a major or minor league pact.

Brewer, 31, was a fourth-round pick by the Pirates in the 2011 draft. After several years in the Pirates and Yankees farm systems, Brewer made his big league debut with the Padres in 2018 though the right-hander struggled to a 5.59 ERA across 11 appearance that first season. From there the right-hander joined the Red Sox, the club with whom he spent most of his time in the majors. In parts of three seasons with Boston, Brewer posted a 4.98 ERA and 5.20 FIP across 81 1/3 innings of work. While he struck out a respectable 20.3% of batters faced during that time while generating a solid 50.4% groundball rate, Brewer walked a whopping 13.3% of batters faced during his time with the Red Sox.

Those control issues led the club to designate Brewer for assignment back in June 2021. He was eventually outrighted to Triple-A and spent the remainder of the season in the minor leagues before signing a minor league deal with the Royals the following offseason but was confined to the minor leagues for the entire 2022 season. During his 18-month stint at the Triple-A level, Brewer put up a relatively pedestrian 4.53 ERA over 57 2/3 innings of work as his walk rate remained over 10%.

That didn’t stop Brewer from landing with the Rays on a minor league deal during the 2022-23 offseason, though he ultimately wouldn’t make it to Opening Day as a member of the organization. The Rays instead got together with the Yankees on a minor trade before the start of the season that shipped Brewer to the Bronx, where he joined the club’s 40-man roster. He put up decent enough results in 8 1/3 innings of work for the big league club with a 4.32 ERA, but was nonetheless designated for assignment in mid-April.

Brewer accepted an outright assignment with the Yankees and pitched exceptionally well in 20 innings with the club’s Triple-A affiliate, posting a 1.35 ERA with a whopping 29.9% strikeout rate. That brief flash of dominance earned Brewer attention from Nippon Professional Baseball’s Hanshin Tigers, and he signed with the club for the remainder of the 2023 season. Though he managed just 12 1/3 innings down the stretch in Japan, the strong numbers continued. Brewer allowed an ERA of just 2.19 across 14 appearances overseas, striking out 30.2% of batters faced while walking 11.3%.

Brewer’s stretch of dominance in the upper minors and abroad last season has seemingly caught the attention of the Cubs. Chicago is among a handful of clubs known to be looking for relief help this winter along with the Cardinals, Rangers, and Astros. Brewer could conceivably bolster the depth of a club that saw the likes of Michael Fulmer and Brad Boxberger depart for free agency. With that being said, the addition of Brewer seems unlikely to take the Cubs out of the relief market given their reported interest in some higher-level arms like former Rays righty Robert Stephenson and veteran closer Liam Hendriks. For now, Brewer figures to enter Spring Training with a shot at a role in the club’s bullpen competing alongside the likes of Daniel Palencia and Jose Cuas.

Reds Designate Austin Wynns For Assignment

The Reds officially announced their signing of right-hander Frankie Montas, with catcher Austin Wynns designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Wynns, 33, was just signed by the Reds to a split deal a couple of weeks ago. He was added to the roster on a deal that will pay him a $950K salary for time spent in the majors and $300K in the minors. Given the nature of that deal and this quick transaction, it seems the club is hoping that Wynns will pass through waivers unclaimed and stick in the minors.

As a player with more than three years of MLB service time, Wynns has the right to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency. But since he has less than five years of service, exercising that right would mean leaving the remaining money on the table. Since he is set to get paid decent amount even in Triple-A, he may decide to stay. For reference, the recent collective bargaining agreement signed for minors leaguers included a minimum salary of $35,800 for Triple-A players, well south of what Wynns is set to make.

If all this comes to fruition, the Reds will have an experienced backstop providing them with depth in a non-roster capacity. Wynns has played 232 major league games, having hit .226/.273/.324 in 653 plate appearances. That translates to a wRC+ of just 61, but he’s generally regarded as a solid framer and defender, though stronger with his throwing than his blocking.

The Reds now have just two catchers on their 40-man roster in Tyler Stephenson and Luke Maile. If an injury should occur, perhaps Wynns will be first in line to step up and fill in, though the club also signed P.J. Higgins to a minor league deal.

It’s not a guarantee that Wynns will go unclaimed, however. Last year, the Orioles agreed to a split deal with outfielder Jake Cave and similarly tried to pass him through waivers, though the Phillies interrupted those plans by claiming him. If some other club likes the idea of Wynns at a salary barely above the league minimum, perhaps they will grab him. Wynns is out of options and can’t be sent to the minors without occupying a roster spot.

Red Sox Claim Max Castillo From Royals

The Red Sox announced that they have claimed right-hander Max Castillo off waivers from the Royals. The righty was designated for assignment before the holidays but lingered in DFA limbo for a while since the normal seven-day window is paused between Christmas and New Year’s. Boston’s 40-man roster is now at 40, though their deal with Lucas Giolito has not yet been made official.

Castillo, 25 in May, has 59 2/3 innings of major league experience to this point in his career. He has a 5.43 earned run average in that time, having stuck out 18.1% of batters faced, walked 9.3% and kept 44.7% of balls in play on the ground.

Acquired from the Blue Jays alongside Samad Taylor in the Whit Merrifield trade, Castillo spent most of 2023 in Triple-A Omaha. He threw 116 innings at that level with a 4.58 ERA, 19.2% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate and 38.8% ground ball rate.

Castillo still has an option year left, so he’ll give the Sox some extra rotation depth for now. The Boston rotation currently projects to feature some combination of Giolito, Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta, Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock but Castillo will give them another arm and can be kept in Worcester. Pivetta is an impending free agent and Giolito can opt out of his deal after 2024 as well. That creates some long-term uncertainty though the Sox have been connected to free agents like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. Perhaps the club will convert Castillo to relief at some point to see if that unlocks another gear. Castillo still has less than a year of service time, giving him the club plenty of cheap control if he takes a step forward.

Reds Sign Frankie Montas

The Reds announced that they have signed righty Frankie Montas, to a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2025. It’s reportedly a $16MM deal for Montas, who is represented by the Boras Corporation. He’ll make $14MM this year with a $2MM buyout on a $20MM mutual option.

With Nick Martinez signed to a two-year, $26MM deal last month, Montas is the second Boras client to join Cincinnati’s rotation mix.  While Martinez might still factor into the Reds’ bullpen plans, Montas is more of a clear-cut starter, assuming that he is back to full health after a lost 2023 season.

The Reds’ projected rotation of Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Graham Ashcraft, and Nick Lodolo have a lot of potential but also a lot of injury questions and not a lot of big league experience.  As a result, the Reds were known to be looking for starting pitching help this winter, and have been linked to a wide array of names on both the free agent and trade fronts.  A trade has always seemed to be the likeliest route for pitching help given Cincinnati’s wealth of minor league depth, yet the Reds have also been linked to such free agents as Seth Lugo, Yariel Rodriguez, and old friend Sonny Gray.

Gray’s name might linger in the background of today’s signing, as the Reds would surely love to see Montas replicate Gray as a starter who got back on track in Cincinnati after struggling in the Bronx.  After finishing sixth in AL Cy Young Award voting with the A’s in 2021, Montas continued to pitch well in 2022 and was one of the more sought-after pitchers at the trade deadline.  Oakland ultimately moved Montas to the Yankees as part of a six-player trade, yet things went haywire for Montas almost as soon as the deal was completed.

Montas struggled to a 6.35 ERA over eight starts and 39 2/3 innings for the Yankees, as he tried to pitch through some shoulder problems that bothered him prior to the trade.  He spent some time on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation, which unfortunately set the stage for his nightmare of a 2023 campaign.  The right-hander ended up undergoing labrum cleanup surgery in February and pitched in just one game (1 1/3 innings on September 30) last year, at least giving himself some peace of mind health-wise as he entered the offseason.

The Yankees felt good enough about Montas’ shoulder that they had some interest in re-signing him this winter, yet Montas will now head to Cincinnati for a fresh start.  His deal almost exactly matched the one-year, $15MM pact that MLB Trade Rumors projected for Montas in our top 50 free agents list, with Montas sitting 44th in the ranking.  If $16MM seems high for a pitcher who basically missed an entire season, the price tag speaks to the high cost of pitching, and the possible upside Montas brings if he is back to his old self.

Montas showed flashes of his quality in posting a 3.13 ERA over 161 innings for Oakland during the 2018-19 seasons, yet the latter season was cut short by an 80-game PED suspension.  He also struggled during the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign before delivering his first full top-tier season in 2021, with a 3.37 ERA and solidly above-average strikeout and walk rates over 187 innings.

Naturally there’s some risk for the Reds in this deal, as $16MM is a big expenditure for a team with a mid-level payroll and Montas isn’t a sure thing.  However, the risk is at least somewhat reduced as just a one-year splurge, plus Montas might have some extra value if he does return to his old form.  Should Montas pitch well, the Reds could issue him a qualifying offer next winter, and thus net a compensatory draft pick if Montas signed elsewhere.  Or, of course, Montas and the Reds might end up working out a longer-term contract themselves depending on how things play out in 2024.

Cincinnati’s payroll sits just under the $103MM mark after this signing, according to Roster Resource.  Considering that the Reds topped the $126MM payroll mark as recently as 2021 before their brief rebuild period, president of baseball operations Nick Krall might have a bit of extra spending capacity in what has already been a busy winter.  In addition to Montas and Martinez, the Reds also signed Jeimer Candelario to a three-year, $45MM deal, and reliever Emilio Pagan for two years and $16MM.  Cincinnati already emerged from its rebuild with an 82-win season in 2023 and now looks to challenge for the NL Central title, with these veteran signings buoying the club’s exciting core of young talent.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post (links to X) first reported the deal and that Montas would receive somewhere in the range of $15MM-$16MM on the one-year deal. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale added that the salary was indeed $16MM. Mark Sheldon of MLB.com relayed the full financial breakdown.

Where Can The Marlins Look For Shortstop Help?

Shortly after it was reported that the Blue Jays had a two-year, $15MM deal in place with Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Craig Mish of the Miami Herald relayed that the Marlins were “down the road with IKF but not at 2/15.” He added that the club may have to use Jon Berti and other internal options to cover the shortstop position, with the club not strongly linked to any big free agent, though a trade is still possible.

The reality is that there is no big free agent shortstop this winter for them to be linked to. There are some guys out there, though each with obvious shortcomings. The trade market is somewhat similar. But with their internal options headlines by Berti, Vidal Bruján and Jacob Amaya, it makes sense for the Marlins to still be casting out their net. Let’s take a look at where the Fish can go from here, with just six weeks to go until Spring Training kicks off.

Free Agents

Tim Anderson

It’s well-known that Anderson is coming off a dreadful season. He hit just one home run in 123 games and produced a line of .245/.286/.296. His wRC+ of 60 was dead last among qualified hitters last year. His defensive metrics also took a tumble, leading to a negative WAR tally at both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. Taking a shot on Anderson would be a bet that he was held back by a knee injury in 2023 and will bounce back to his previous form. From 2019 to 2022, he hit .318/.347/.473 for a wRC+ of 123 with some passable glovework in there as well.

Amed Rosario

Rosario is somewhat similar to Anderson, as he is coming off a down year but looks better with a wider view. From 2019 to 2022, he hit .282/.315/.412 for a wRC+ of 101, though his defense wasn’t terribly well regarded in that time. His bat dropped off in 2023, though not as far as Anderson’s. He ultimately hit .263/.305/.378 between the Guardians and Dodgers for a wRC+ of 88. The latter club utilized him at second base and he seemed to post better results there, so perhaps he’ll be viewed as more of a second baseman going forward.

Elvis Andrus

Outside of a blip in 2022, Andrus has been subpar at the plate for quite a while but his defense continues to be strong. He got into 112 games for the White Sox last year, spending more time at second base but 404 innings at short, producing four Outs Above Average in that time. Though he hit just .251/.304/.358 for a wRC+ of 81, he was still worth 1.1 fWAR on the year thanks to his speed and defense. Having signed for just $3MM last winter, he should be fairly cheap again this offseason.

Gio Urshela

Urshela is decent at the plate, having hit .281/.323/.415 over the past three seasons for a wRC+ of 106. He’s also a solid defender but has never been more than a part-time option at shortstop. He had just 359 career innings at the position, with subpar grades for that small sample of work.

Others

There are plenty of other free agents who can play shortstop, but it’s hard to envision any of them getting an everyday job there. Each of Brandon Crawford, Kevin Newman, Nick Ahmed, Ehire Adrianza, Luis Guillorme, Enrique Hernández, Adalberto Mondesí, Yu Chang and Kevin Smith are available, but each is either coming off a poor season or is best served as a utility/bench option.

Trade Market

Willy Adames

Adames is perhaps the best player listed in this post, regularly combining 25-homer power with strong defense, but it’s hard to imagine the Marlins prying him loose from Milwaukee. He’s an impending free agent and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of $12.4MM. That makes it speculatively possible that the Brewers are open to moving him, but then they would be left with a shortstop vacancy of their own, which would put them in the same tricky spot the Marlins are in now. For a low-spending club like the Marlins that needs a strong prospect pipeline to succeed, it’s unlikely they would part with significant prospects for a rental.

Ha-Seong Kim

Kim is somewhat similar to Adames, as he’s a good player but a rental. He’s hit .256/.338/.391 over the past two seasons and has been great in the field, allowing him to produce 8.1 fWAR in that span. The Padres are running a tight budget but Kim has a CBT hit of just $7MM and they have infield questions. Manny Machado had elbow surgery in October and may need to miss some of the start of the season or at least slot into a DH role for a while. That could leave Kim covering third with Jake Cronenworth at second until Machado comes back, moving Kim back to second and Cronenworth to first.

Kyle Farmer

Farmer is a glove-first utility guy that generally grades out well at shortstop. He’s hit .258/.316/.402 over the past three years for a wRC+ of 94. He has over 2,000 innings at shortstop in his career, with a -1 DRS, 0.7 UZR and +3 OAA. The Twins tended him a contract for 2024 with a projected salary of $6.6MM, but they are looking to cut payroll this year due to their broadcast situation. Their infield is loaded with Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Jorge Polanco and Alex Kirilloff set for regular roles and prospect Brooks Lee charging hard from the minors. Without Farmer, they would still have Willi Castro and Nick Gordon for bench/utility roles and José Miranda in the minors as depth. Like Adames and Kim, he’s a rental, but should be more attainable.

Santiago Espinal

Espinal seems somewhat redundant as a depth/utility player now that the Jays have IKF on the roster. Espinal hit .282/.340/.382 over 2021 and 2022 for a wRC+ of 105 and received strong grades at the three infield positions to the left of first base. He hasn’t played too much shortstop but that’s mostly because the Jays have had Bo Bichette locked in there. Espinal is coming off a down year at the plate, however, having hit .248/.310/.335 in 2023 for a wRC+ of 80. He’s projected for an arbitration salary of $2.5MM and has two extra years of control beyond this one.

Jorge Mateo

The Orioles are loaded with infield talent, with 2024 likely to see a left side of Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday, which will squeeze out Mateo. He has hit just .223/.270/.363 in his career for a wRC+ of 77 but has stolen 30-plus bases in each of the past two years. He’s also considered a great defender at short, having grades of 15 DRS, 8 OAA and 9.1 UZR in his career. He will make $2.7MM this year and can be retained for one more arbitration season after that.

Guardians

The Guardians have a high number of shortstop-capable players on their roster, including Brayan Rocchio, Gabriel Arias, Juan Brito, Tyler Freeman, Angel Martínez and José Tena all in the mix. Andrés Giménez could also be on that list, though he’s likely to be the everyday second baseman. They may be willing to part with someone from that group, depending on who they believe will eventually take the job in Cleveland.

Free Agent Profile: Sean Manaea

Left-hander Sean Manaea has a lengthy track record of being a decent mid-rotation starter, but the past couple of years have been challenging. Overall, he has an earned run average of 4.10 in just over 1,000 career innings at the major league level. He has struck out roughly a quarter of batters faced in each of the past four full seasons and has never had a walk rate higher than 8.4%.

But in 2022, his performance dipped, as his ERA jumped to 4.96 with the Padres. His peripherals were still pretty strong, as he struck out 23.2% of batters faced and walked just 7.5%, but it was nonetheless a poor time for diminished results as he was heading into free agency for the first time.

The Giants took a shot on Manaea, giving him a two-year, $25MM deal that allowed him to opt out after the first season. The club was aggressive in deploying openers, only giving Manaea 10 actual starts, but he logged 117 2/3 innings on the year over 37 appearances. He finished with a 4.44 ERA, 25.7% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. Though those results were more decent than spectacular, he still decided to trigger his opt-out and return to the open market.

Things get a little more interesting when digging deeper into his season, which may give more insight into his decision to try free agency again. Notably, Manaea added a sweeper this year and had great results with it. Per Statcast data, he first threw the pitch on May 30 and ultimately tossed it 214 times, 10.4% of his pitches thrown on the season overall. He felt comfortable throwing it to both righties and lefties, with a perfect split of 107 sweepers thrown to each. That resulted in a huge whiff percentage of 35.1% and a batting line of .140/.161/.163. Even when batters did make contact, the 82.8mph average exit velocity was easily the lowest of any of his offerings.

The impact on his overall results is quite clear. In his first 11 appearances of the year, prior to introducing the sweeper, he had a 6.61 ERA, 28.9% strikeout rate, 12.5% walk rate, 32.6% ground ball rate and eight home runs in just 32 2/3 innings. The rest of the way, he had a 3.60 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate, 44% ground ball rate and six home runs in 85 innings. The Giants gave him four actual starts to finish the year and he posted a 2.25 ERA in those, averaging six innings per start.

This is still a fairly small sample size of results but the change in his arsenal at least gives some reason to believe that it may not just be a fluke. Last month, Driveline tweeted some video of a session with Manaea which showed him also trying out a splitter, perhaps suggesting Manaea is still trying to find yet another gear going forward.

MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents predicted Manaea for a contract of two years and $22MM, an average annual value of $11MM. That’s roughly the going rate for a back-end innings eater these days. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that Lance Lynn got $11MM while Kyle Gibson got $13MM. Jack Flaherty got $14MM and Luis Severino $13MM despite a poor platform seasons, while Frankie Montas got $16MM even though he missed almost all of the year recovering from shoulder surgery. Tyler Mahle got $22MM over two years even though he’s going to miss at least part of the upcoming campaign while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.

If Manaea can maintain the results he showed over the final four months of 2023, he could be a bargain, especially with pitchers like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery set for nine-figure deals. The need for starting pitching is still high and just about every club would benefit from the kind of performance Manaea seems capable of. His market has been very quiet this winter, with the Giants reportedly interested in a reunion but no other suitors publicly mentioned.

The Opener: Offseason Thaw, Red Sox, Cubs

Here are three things we’re watching around baseball as 2024 kicks into gear…

1. Offseason set to ramp up?

There have been some massive news stories this offseason, such as the record-setting deals for Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, as well as the Juan Soto trade, but it has undoubtedly been slow on the whole. 28 of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents are still unattached, including big names like Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Josh Hader. There’s also plenty of notable guys in the lower tiers still out there, a handful of expected trades that have to be finished and a batch of arbitration salaries that need to be sorted out. Many of the top spenders were focused on Ohtani for a long time and then pivoted to Yamamoto, but by the time both agreed to terms with the Dodgers, it was almost time for the holiday break. With those holidays now over, there’s just six weeks until players start reporting for Spring Training and a lot of work to do, meaning the ice has to crack soon.

2. What’s next for the Boston rotation?

The Red Sox have had upgrading their rotation as a priority all winter. They finally made a move by signing Lucas Giolito last week, but then traded Chris Sale to Atlanta the very next day. That leaves them with Giolito, followed by options like Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock. Is there another move coming in the next few weeks?

3. Will the Cubs finally leap into action?

The Cubs have arguably been the least active club this winter, at least in terms of results. Yesterday, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look at each club’s free agent spending thus far this offseason and the Cubs were one of four yet to spend any money at all. The other three have been active in different ways, with the Yankees trading for Soto, Trent Grisham and Alex Verdugo, the Marlins acquiring Christian Bethancourt and Vidal Bruján, and the Rockies having traded for Cal Quantrill. The Cubs have been connected to many big names, both in free agency and the trade market, but haven’t been able to land anything yet.

Each Team’s Free Agent Spending Thus Far

The New Year serves as a symbolic halfway point of the offseason. We’re two months removed from the final game of last year’s Fall Classic and about seven weeks from the first Spring Training contests of 2024. There’s still plenty of offseason to go — only 22 of MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents are off the board — but we’ll take this opportunity to check in on which teams have been the most active thus far.

Using our Contract Tracker, we see all of this offseason’s free agent activity. We’ll limit this look to players who inked major league contracts and set the cutoff as November 6 — the date on which free agents were first permitted to speak with teams other than their 2023 club. This excludes the extensions signed by Joe Jiménez (Braves), Max Muncy (Dodgers) and Colin Rea (Brewers) between the start of the offseason and the official opening of free agency.

This isn’t an exhaustive look at a team’s offseason activity. The Yankees (Juan Soto) and Braves (Chris Sale) took on high-priced star players in trade, while the Dodgers extended Tyler Glasnow and the Brewers signed a long-term deal with top prospect Jackson Chourio. This looks only at free agency. Teams are ordered by overall spending.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Total guarantees: $1.043 billion

Philadelphia Phillies

Total guarantees: $172MM

Arizona Diamondbacks

Total guarantees: $122MM

San Francisco Giants

Total guarantees: $121.25MM

Cincinnati Reds

Total guarantees: $106.2MM

Kansas City Royals

Total guarantees: $105MM

St. Louis Cardinals

Total guarantees: $99MM

Detroit Tigers

Total guarantees: $45.75MM

Boston Red Sox

Total guarantees: $39.5MM

Atlanta Braves

Total guarantees: $30MM

San Diego Padres

Total guarantees: $28MM

Texas Rangers

Total guarantees: $26.5MM

Toronto Blue Jays

Total guarantees: $25.5MM

Chicago White Sox

Total guarantees: $24.3MM

Seattle Mariners

Total guarantees: $24MM

New York Mets

Total guarantees: $18.8MM

Pittsburgh Pirates

Total guarantees: $16.2MM

Baltimore Orioles

Total guarantees: $13MM

Houston Astros

Total guarantees: $12MM

Milwaukee Brewers

Total guarantees: $11.25MM

Los Angeles Angels

Total guarantees: More than $6.8MM

Cleveland Guardians

Total guarantees: $4.75MM

Washington Nationals

Total guarantees: $4.25MM

Oakland A’s

Total guarantees: $1.5MM

Tampa Bay Rays

Total guarantees: $1.1MM

Minnesota Twins

Total guarantees: $950K

New York Yankees

Total guarantees: $0

  • None

Chicago Cubs

Total guarantees: $0

  • None

Miami Marlins

Total guarantees: $0

  • None

Colorado Rockies

Total guarantees: $0

  • None

Kazuto Taguchi Interested In Move To MLB

Left-hander Kazuto Taguchi re-signed with the Tokyo Yakult Swallows on a three-year contract worth 550 million yen (roughly $3.89MM), according to Sanspo News and other Japanese outlets.  The 28-year-old closer also expressed an interest in eventually pursuing a move to Major League Baseball, which could happen as early as next offseason.  Taguchi is a season away from reaching the full nine years of NPB service time required to be a full free agent without a posting fee involved, and his comments suggest that his deal with the Swallows might contain an out clause in such a circumstance.

Taguchi has a 3.36 ERA over 825 career innings in Nippon Professional Baseball, pitching with the Yomiuri Giants from 2014-20 until a trade to the Swallows prior to the start of the 2021 season.  A rough 2018 campaign moved Taguchi from the rotation to the bullpen, and his work as a reliever has become increasingly impressive.  Taguchi posted a 1.25 ERA over 36 innings for the Swallows as a setup man in 2022, and then a 1.86 ERA over 48 1/3 innings as the team’s closer last season.  His work helped the Swallows to back-to-back pennants in 2021-22, and the Japan Series crown in 2021.

At only 5’7″ and 165 pounds, Taguchi isn’t exactly an imposing figure on the mound, and some Major League scouts might inevitably have concerns over his durability.  That said, working out of the bullpen should help Taguchi stay healthy, and becoming a reliever seems to have unlocked a new level of performance.  Taguchi has always had solid control as both a starter or a reliever, and his 28.5% strikeout rate in 2023 marked a new career high.  Home runs also used to be a slight concern for Taguchi earlier in his career, yet he has allowed just two big flies since the start of the 2022 season.

Yuki Matsui just signed a five-year, $28MM deal with the Padres less than two weeks ago, and beyond being just a month younger than Taguchi, Matsui is also a rather diminutive left-handed reliever.  However, Matsui has a much longer track record as a closer and is coming to MLB in advance of his age-28 season, whereas Taguchi would be coming to the Show prior to his age-29 season.

Perhaps a two-year pact might be a more realistic target for Taguchi at this point than Matsui’s deal (which is also somewhat unusually structured, with two opt-out clauses and an “injury clause”).  Given the variance involved in relief pitching, projecting contracts even for established Major League relievers is difficult a year in advance, let alone NPB pitchers.  Naturally another strong performance in the 2024 NPB season would help Taguchi’s prospects of landing a nice payday in the big leagues, and he could be a pitcher to monitor heading into the 2024-25 offseason.