Big Hype Prospects: Salas, Merrill, Yorke, Hence, Mayo
We missed a week while I was on the injured list (back spasms sustained while diving back to first base). There’s much for us to cover. Let’s start with some high-profile Padres. While the draft is tempting, let’s look in on those guys as they sign.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Ethan Salas, 17, C, SDP (A)
139 PA, 6 HR, 5 SB, .259/.381/.500
When we adjourned two weeks ago, Salas was batting .208/.340/.286 in 94 plate appearances. An 82 wRC+ isn’t anything to sniff at when we’re talking about a guy who’s 17-and-one-month old playing in full-season ball. Over the last two weeks, Salas hit .371/.467/.971. Including a HBP, he has as many free passes as strikeouts during the span. Of his 13 hits, he bopped five homers, four doubles, and a triple. That adds up to a 240 wRC+ for the hot streak and a 133 wRC+ on the season. If he keeps this up for long, he’ll find himself playing against High-A competition before the season ends. He’s “on pace” to debut as a teenager – a feat he can accomplish as long as he reaches the Majors before June 1, 2026.
Jackson Merrill, 20, SS, SDP (A+)
300 PA, 10 HR, 10 SB, .280/.318/.444
Salas’ future teammate had to grind through a rough April before turning a corner. The Midwest League is a difficult hitting environment. His first month of play consisted of a .188/.247/.338 performance. In the three months since then, he’s hit .317/.348/.487 while making steady improvements. Lately, he’s found a power stroke. Since June 14, he’s hit six of his 10 home runs. Merrill isn’t expected to be much of a power hitter. His carrying trait is an advanced feel for contact. He rarely meets a pitch with which he can’t connect. His discipline lags a bit, though it’s not as if he’s Javy Baez. An unsubstantiated theory of mine is that his early-season slump was the result of contacting too many pitches outside of the zone. The theory fits what data I have available, though I haven’t discussed it with anybody who would actually know.
Nick Yorke, 2B, 21, BOS (AA)
316 PA, 9 HR, 6 SB, .275/.361/.453
Folks weren’t sure what to make of Yorke’s forgettable 2022 campaign. The industry had a little chuckle when the Red Sox “reached” for Yorke in the first round of the 2020 draft. After a superb 2021 season, everyone adjusted expectations. Then 2022 happened. Some evaluators stuck with their updated outlook and blamed injuries. Others pointed to his subpar defense and wrote him off.
Yorke has rebounded this season – perhaps not enough to make up for his defensive shortcomings. His current 122 wRC+ depends upon a .353 BABIP. He also has 13.0 percent swinging strike and 25.0 percent strikeout rates. Historically, prospects with similar statistical performances have been prone to stalling out in the Quad-A bucket. For now, we should view Yorke’s rebound as a positive development. Perhaps more distance from his injury-riddled 2022 will lead to improvements in his quality or rate of contact.
Tink Hence, 20, SP, STL (AA)
(A+) 41.2 IP, 9.94 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 2.81 ERA
Hence received a promotion to Double-A at the beginning of July. He also picked up a hold in the Futures Game. The pitching-needy Cardinals surely hope Hence can remain in the rotation. Alas, though he doesn’t walk many hitters, he’s not known for sharp command. His breaking ball is a weapon. It’s expected he should join the many pitchers who have mastered manipulating breaking ball spin for different effects. He doesn’t have a consistent changeup. Taken with the errant fastball command and history of brief outings, the relief risk is palpable. That said, Hence has yet to meet a challenge he hasn’t mastered. His Double-A debut was the first appearance of his career in which he faced more than 20 batters (22).
Coby Mayo, 21, 3B, BAL (AA)
347 PA, 17 HR, 4 SB, .307/.424/.603
With a 176 wRC+ on the season, Mayo is one of the top qualified hitters in the minors. He’ll play his next game in Triple-A, ending a nearly 500-plate appearance stint in Double-A. Mayo has traits grounded in the 2019 juiced ball era. He’s a pull-oriented slugger who generates plenty of loft. As a right-handed hitter, he’s not an ideal fit for Camden Yards. However, his power is such that he could overcome the home field limitations. It will be interesting to see if Mayo can continue to run elevated BABIPs into the Majors as this is a hitting profile typically associated with low BABIPs. Hypothetically, if a franchise-altering talent is made available at the trade deadline, Mayo would go a long way toward securing a deal. They’ll eventually have to trade somebody they like.
Three More
Johan Rojas, PHI (22): The Phillies are angling to get Kyle Schwarber into the DH slot. The plan would involve Cristian Pache in center and Brandon Marsh in left. If Pache doesn’t work out, Rojas has a similar reputation as a superlative defender who might hit enough to create a lot of value. In 354 Double-A plate appearances, Rojas is batting .306/.361/.484 with nine homers and 30 steals. He’s on the 40-man roster.
River Ryan, LAD (24): The latest pitcher to pop in the Dodgers system, Ryan features a promising four-pitch repertoire. In the month of June, he tossed two five-inning no-hitters. His command hasn’t been particularly sharp. Even across those two no-nos, Ryan issued four walks and hit three batters. It’s thought he’ll eventually develop better command. If not, he has a relief floor.
Ignacio Alvarez, ATL (20): A ripped shortstop who recently turned 20, Alvarez evokes Yandy Diaz right down to the comical biceps, low-angle contact, discipline, and rare whiffs. The comparison is hard to avoid. He might just be the next Brave to skip the line to the Majors. He generally keeps the ball on the ground with an all-fields approach. He’s expected to eventually move to third base, though he remains passable at shortstop for now.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
Reds Outright Henry Ramos, Ricky Karcher
The Reds announced that both outfielder Henry Ramos and right-hander Ricky Karcher cleared waivers and were outrighted to Triple-A Louisville. Both players had been designated for assignment in the past week.
Ramos, 31, has had tremendous results at the plate in Triple-A but hasn’t yet put it together in the big leagues. He’s hit .299/.356/.481 in 400 games at the top minor league level but .223/.313/.304 in 36 major league contests. He signed a minor league deal with the Reds in the offseason and got called up in late April. He hit .242/.356/.306 in 18 games before landing on the injured list due to a hip strain in late May. When he was ready to return, he was optioned to the minors before his recent DFA.
The outfielder had the right to reject this assignment by virtue of the fact that he has a previous career outright. It’s not explicit whether he’s chosen to waive that right or not, though he’s listed as active on the Louisville Bats roster, perhaps indicating he has decided to stick in the organization instead of heading back to the open market.
Karcher, 25, was just added to the 40-man roster in November, to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. He got that roster spot on the heels of a strong 2022 season wherein he tossed 56 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A with a 3.65 ERA, 35.1% strikeout rate and 15.9% walk rate. That control was not ideal but the strikeout stuff was intriguing enough for the Reds to not want him to get away.
2023 has been a different story, however, despite Karcher making his MLB debut with a scoreless inning. He’s spent most of the season in Triple-A with a 7.18 ERA in 31 1/3 innings at that level. His 21.7% strikeout rate is far lower than last year’s and his command issues have gotten much worse, with his walk rate spiking all the way to 26.5%. Based on those results, he lost his roster spot with the Reds and couldn’t get one with any of the other clubs either.
This is his first career outright and he has less than three years of service time, which means he does not have the right to reject this assignment and elect free agency. He’ll stick in the organization and provide some non-roster depth while trying to better harness his stuff.
Poll: Who Will Win The 2023 Home Run Derby?
The 2023 All-Star festivities have already kicked off, with this past weekend featuring the Futures Game and the start of the MLB Draft. The draft continued today and tonight will feature the Home Run Derby, followed by more drafting and the All-Star game tomorrow. The derby is mostly about entertainment, though there’s also a $1MM prize on the line. That’s chump change to a lot of these players, but not all. The runner-up gets $500K and each other participant gets $150K. The player who hits the longest home run will get an extra $100K. It kicks off at 7pm Central time tonight.
The competition will proceed with head-to-head matchups in a bracket with these eight players, proceeding in order of their seeding: Luis Robert Jr., Pete Alonso, Mookie Betts, Adolis García, Randy Arozarena, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Julio Rodríguez and Adley Rutschman. Defending champion Juan Soto isn’t participating this year, leaving the throne open for the taking. Let’s take a look at the matchups and some of their stats.
- Luis Robert Jr. OF, White Sox: Robert is having his best season in many ways, including in the power department. He came into the year with 36 home runs in 222 games but already has 26 this season in just 89 contests. He’s hitting .271/.330/.569 overall for a wRC+ of 143. He has an average exit velocity of 89 mph, max of 113.6 mph and a 15.9% barrel rate. This is his first time participating in the home run derby.
- Adley Rutschman, C, Orioles: Rutschman debuted last year and hit 13 home runs in 113 games but is already up to 12 this year after just 86 contests. He’s hitting .273/.376/.423 on the season for a wRC+ of 125. He has an average exit velocity of 87.9 mph, max of 111.1 mph and a 6.7% barrel rate. This is his first time participating in the home run derby.
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- Adolis García, OF, Rangers: García broke out in 2021 with a 31-homer campaign, added another 27 last year and already has 23 here in 2023. Financially, he’s probably the player with the most to gain from the prize money. He’s yet to reach arbitration and that $1MM total is more than his annual salary. He got a $2.5MM bonus when signing with the Cardinals, but that was way back in 2017. Rutschman is the only other player in the field that is both pre-arb and hasn’t signed an extension, but he got a signing bonus of $8.1MM when signing in 2019. Garcia is hitting .261/.331/.517 this year for a wRC+ of 131. He’s hitting .273/.376/.423 on the whole for a wRC+ of 125. He has an average exit velocity of 92.2 mph, max of 115.1 mph and a 16.4% barrel rate. This is his first time participating in the derby.
- Randy Arozarena, OF, Rays: Arozarena vaulted himself onto the national stage with 10 home runs in the 2020 postseason. He followed that up by hitting 20 in each of the past two seasons and has another 16 here in 2023. He’s hitting .279/.388/.467 on the year for a wRC+ of 147. He has an average exit velocity of 92.9 mph, max of 114.3 mph and a 14.6% barrel rate. This is his first time participating in the derby.
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- Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets: Alonso is the most successful derby participant of the group, winning the competition back-to-back in 2019 and 2021. There was no derby in 2020 due to the pandemic. He attempted to win a third consecutive title last year but was defeated by J-Rod in the semis. He has 172 career home runs and is at 26 this year. He’s slashing .211/.310/.497 for a wRC+ of 123. He has an average exit velocity of 89.2 mph, max of 113.7 mph and a 14.8% barrel rate.
- Julio Rodríguez, OF, Mariners: Rodríguez will be the hometown favorite with the festivities taking place in Seattle this year. As mentioned, he took out Alonso a year ago but fell to Juan Soto in the finals. He hit 28 home runs as a rookie last year and has added 13 more this year. He’s hitting .249/.310/.411 for a wRC+ of 105. He has an average exit velocity of 92.8 mph, max of 115.5 mph and a 9.8% barrel rate.
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- Mookie Betts, IF/OF, Dodgers: Betts is 30 years old and this is his seventh time in the All-Star game but this will be his first derby. He has 239 career home runs, including 26 this year. He’s batting .276/.379/.586 overall for a wRC+ of 157. He has an average exit velocity of 92.5 mph, max of 110.1 mph and a 12.8% barrel rate.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Blue Jays: Guerrero put on a show in the 2019 contest, hitting 91 home runs overall but falling just short of Alonso in the final round. He has 117 homers in his career and 13 here in 2023. He’s slashing .274/.344/.443 for a wRC+ of 120. He has an average exit velocity of 94.3 mph, max of 116.7 mph and a 13.6% barrel rate.
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The winner of Robert/Rutschman will square off against the winner of García/Arozarena in the semis, while the winner of Alonso/Rodríguez will face the winner of Betts/Guerrero. Before we get to who you think will win, let’s start with who you want to win. (Link to poll for app users)
Who Do You Want To Win The 2023 Derby?
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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 33% (2,332)
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Pete Alonso 18% (1,266)
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Julio Rodríguez 13% (936)
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Mookie Betts 8% (528)
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Luis Robert Jr. 7% (512)
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Adley Rutschman 7% (484)
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Randy Arozarena 7% (478)
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Adolis García 6% (437)
Total votes: 6,973
And who do you think will win the 2021 Home Run Derby? (Link to poll for app users)
Who Will Win The 2023 Derby?
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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 38% (1,583)
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Pete Alonso 23% (927)
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Julio Rodríguez 12% (474)
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Luis Robert Jr. 7% (301)
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Randy Arozarena 6% (254)
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Adolis García 6% (227)
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Mookie Betts 5% (199)
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Adley Rutschman 4% (148)
Total votes: 4,113
Yankees Name Sean Casey Hitting Coach
4:25pm: The Yankees have officially announced Casey’s hiring.
11:37am: Heyman tweets that Casey has agreed to take on the role for the remainder of the 2023 season. Presumably, these next few months will serve as a trial run for a potentially longer stint in the position, but the short-term nature of Casey’s agreement also creates the possibility that there will be another search conducted in the offseason.
11:33am: The Yankees dismissed hitting coach Dillon Lawson over the weekend, and they’ve wasted little time in zeroing in on a replacement. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that they’ll hire former All-Star first baseman and current MLB Network personality Sean Casey as Lawson’s successor. Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported that Casey was under “strong” consideration for the position (Twitter links).
Casey, 49, is something of an outside-the-box hire, as he’s never worked as a coach at the minor league or major league level since ending his 12-year playing career in 2008. The three-time All-Star has been working as a broadcaster and analyst on the MLB Network for the past several years. In that sense, there are some parallels between his hiring and that of manager Aaron Boone — another former player who went straight from broadcasting back into a big league dugout. Boone and Casey were teammates with the Reds from 1998 through 2003, when Boone was traded to the Yankees. That familiarity surely plays a role in the decision to consider and ultimately hire Casey despite his lack of experience coaching.
While Casey is new to coaching, he certainly knows a thing or two about hitting. The former second-round pick retired as a .302/.367/.447 hitter and had just a 10.2% strikeout rate against an 8.5% walk rate in 5644 big league plate appearances. Casey made the NL All-Star team in 1999, 2001 and 2004, and he finished out his career with 130 home runs, 322 doubles and 12 triples.
Casey’s background couldn’t be much different from that of his predecessor. Lawson didn’t play baseball professionally, going directly from college ball to the college coaching ranks and eventually coaching in the Royals’ system before being hired away by the Yankees. After a couple years as the organization’s minor league hitting coordinator, Lawson was elevated to the major league hitting coach position following the ’21 campaign, though his time in that spot ultimately lasted just one and a half seasons.
In addition to his dozen years playing at the big league level, Casey has spent considerable time interacting with and building a rapport with current players through his work on MLB Network. “The Mayor” is known for a gregarious and jovial personality. At the very least, one can imagine he’ll have little trouble connecting with the Yankees’ players and fitting in from a clubhouse perspective. The rest of the season will be used to determine both his coaching acumen, his appetite for returning to the dugout on a long-term basis, and whether Yankees decision-makers feel he’s equipped to handle the position in 2024 and beyond.
Marlins Reinstate Johnny Cueto, Transfer Jonathan Davis To 60-Day IL
The Marlins made a few roster moves today, per Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. Right-hander Johnny Cueto was reinstated from the 60-day injured list, with righty Sean Reynolds optioned to Triple-A in a corresponding move. To open a spot for Cueto on the 40-man roster, outfielder Jonathan Davis was transferred to the 60-day IL. Cueto will not rejoin the rotation initially, per Craig Mish of the Miami Herald.
The Marlins signed Cueto, 37, in the offseason to a one-year, $8.5MM deal, which came in the form of a $6MM salary this year and a $2.5MM buyout on a $10.5MM club option for 2024. That deal came on the heels of a strong 2022 campaign wherein Cueto tossed 158 1/3 innings for the White Sox with a 3.35 ERA. The move initially seeded somewhat curious since the Fish already had a stacked rotation, but it was just over a week later that they flipped Pablo López and a couple of prospect to the Twins in exchange for Luis Arraez.
Cueto opened the season in the club’s rotation alongside Sandy Alcantara, Jesús Luzardo, Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers. However, he left his first start after recording just three outs due to right biceps tightness. He started a rehab assignment in early May, though that was shut down after just one appearance. Rehab assignments come with a 30-day maximum for pitchers, though they are sometimes halted due to renewed soreness or a new injury. He started a second assignment June 11 and the 30 days of that are now up, which prompted today’s moves.
However, it seems Cueto won’t be returned to the rotation, as mentioned above. In the 26 2/3 innings he’s thrown on his most recent rehab assignment, he allowed 27 earned runs, leading to a 9.11 ERA. He struck out just 11.1% of batters faced in that time. Reading the stat line on rehab assignments can be misleading, as pitchers might be more focused on mechanics and velocity as opposed to results. But it’s telling that the Marlins evidently aren’t willing to slot him back into the rotation.
Since Cueto’s been gone, there have been a few changes in the club’s starting mix. Cabrera and Rogers are each on the injured list as well, though Cabrera was recently sent out on a rehab assignment and could be an option shortly after the All-Star break. With those injuries, the club has given opportunities to pitchers like Braxton Garrett and Bryan Hoeing. Garrett has a 3.70 ERA while Hoeing is at 4.54.
Another wild card in this deck is Eury Pérez. The 20-year-old rookie came into the year as one of the top prospects in the league and has delivered on that hype as the Marlins were dealing with those injuries. He posted a 2.36 ERA through his first 11 starts but the club recently optioned him to the minors on account of workload concerns. Since he’s already set a personal high for innings pitched in a season, they want to tap the brakes a bit and save some gas for later in the year and perhaps the postseason.
With Rogers on the shelf and Pérez on ice, it seems the club will proceed with a rotation core of Alcantara, Luzardo, Garrett and Hoeing for now, with Cabrera perhaps joining them just over the horizon, leaving Cueto in the bullpen for the time being. He could perhaps rejoin the rotation down the line if another injury pops up, though it will perhaps depend on the timing with the return of Pérez presumably coming at some point.
As for Davis, it’s not a shock to see him wind up on the 60-day IL. He recently required meniscus surgery and is expected to miss the next three to six months. This move means he will be ineligible to return until early September, which wasn’t in the cards anyway.
Who Could The Nationals Trade At The Deadline?
This year’s trade deadline seems like it has the potential to be unique, with very few clear sellers. The expanded playoffs and weak Central divisions mean that there are only five teams that are more than eight games out of a playoff spot at the All-Star break.
One of those five clubs is in Washington, as the Nationals have been rebuilding in recent years. Stars like Max Scherzer, Trea Turner and Juan Soto have been flipped in deadline deals over the past two seasons, which unsurprisingly has led to them being one of the few noncompetitive clubs here in 2023. Their 36-54 record has them in last in the National League East and they’re 13 games back in the Wild Card race.
The Nats therefore stand out as one of the few clear sellers at this point, with just over three weeks until the August 1 deadline. They no longer have superstars like those mentioned above, but there are still some players that should attract attention.
Rental Players
Candelario, 29, is one of the most straightforward trade candidates in the league. He’s an impending free agent having a great season on a team that’s clearly in a position to sell. MLBTR recently listed the top 50 trade candidates for this summer and Candelario took the #2 spot, trailing only Lucas Giolito of the White Sox.
The third baseman was seemingly breaking out in Detroit not too long ago, putting up solid numbers both in 2020 and 2021. He produced a .278/.356/.458 batting line over those campaigns for a 125 wRC+ and was considered around league average defensively, leading to a tally of 5.8 wins above replacement from FanGraphs in 201 games. Unfortunately, just about everything went wrong in 2022 as he hit just .217/.272/.361 for an 80 wRC+ with subpar defensive grades.
The Tigers non-tendered him instead of paying him a projected $7MM salary for his final arbitration season, and the Nats swooped in with an offer of $5MM plus $1MM of incentives. It looks like that investment will pay off handsomely for the Nats, as Candelario is having a bounceback season. He’s hitting .261/.337/.478 (118 wRC+) and his defensive grades are much stronger. With so few sellers and a pitching-heavy free agent class this coming winter, Candelario should be one of the most sought-after position players in the weeks to come.
Edwards, 31, missed much of the 2019-2021 period due to injuries and had to settle for a minor league deal with the Nationals prior to the 2022 season. He made it to the big league club in May of last year and posted a 2.76 ERA in 62 innings the rest of the way. He likely benefited from a .259 batting average on balls in play and 83.6% strand rate, but his peripherals were around league average.
The Nationals tendered him a contract for 2023, agreeing to a $2.25MM arbitration salary. He’s been solid this year, with a 3.69 ERA in 32 appearances. His 16.9% strikeout rate and 12% walk rate aren’t exciting, but he has a 46% ground ball rate and has allowed just one home run all year. He isn’t likely to fetch a ton as a rental reliever with worrying peripherals, but he’s fairly cheap and bullpen help is always in demand. He’s been on the injured list almost three weeks due to shoulder inflammation, however, so his health will be a clear factor in his market.
Dickerson is a 34-year-old veteran who signed a one-year, $2.25MM deal with incentives in the offseason. The Nats were surely hoping he could serve as a veteran mentor to their younger players and perhaps play his way into being a deadline trade chip. Unfortunately, he’s hitting just .248/.278/.358 on the year for a wRC+ of 69. As a veteran left-handed hitter, he might get interest based on his track record, but the return would likely be mild even if he gets hot in the next few weeks.
Signed/Controlled For One Extra Year
Smith, 28, was a similar bounceback play to the Candelario signing. In 2019 and 2020 with the Mets, he hit .299/.366/.571 for a wRC+ of 150 but followed that up by hitting .233/.298/.345 over the next two years for an 82 wRC+. The Mets non-tendered him, and the Nats signed him to a one-year deal with a $2MM salary and $2MM in incentives.
Unfortunately, this deal hasn’t worked out nearly as well as the Candelario one. Smith is hitting .260/.328/.340 (85 wRC+) while playing first base only. Given the offensive expectations of that position, that’s clearly insufficient production. He can be controlled for 2024 via arbitration but is trending towards another non-tender unless he can turn things around.
Robles, 26, was once considered one of the top prospects in the league but has yet to put it all together at the big league level. He’s always had the speed and defense combo working but has continued to struggle at the plate, coming into 2023 with a career batting line of .233/.306/.359 and a 78 wRC+.
He has shown some positive developments here this year, including a 14.3% strikeout rate that’s well below his 23.9% rate in previous years. His .299/.385/.364 batting line is a bit above average, translating to a wRC+ of 111. Unfortunately, that’s come in just 36 games as he’s twice gone on the IL due to back spasms, including his current stint. He’s making $2.325MM this year with a $3.3MM club option for 2024. Even if that were turned down, he could still be retained via arbitration.
Williams, 31, was primarily a starter with the Pirates for many years but had been deployed in a swing role by the Mets in recent seasons. He signed a two-year, $13MM deal to return to a starting role with the Nationals. He has a 4.45 ERA through 18 starts, striking out 17% of opponents while walking 7.5%. That low strikeout rate has led to a 5.41 FIP and 4.95 SIERA. He’s not going to command huge interest, but a club in need of a back-end innings eater could give Washington a call.
Corbin, 34 next week, is having a bounce back year, at least in terms of results so far. His 4.89 earned run average is an improvement over his 6.31 figure from last year and the 5.82 from the year prior. That’s come despite a 15.2% strikeout rate, which is a few ticks below the past few seasons and would be a career low. On his back-loaded contract, he’s making $24MM this year and a massive $35MM next year. Even if the Nats paid all of that down, they likely wouldn’t be able to get much back in trade.
Longer-Term Players
Thomas, 27, is perhaps the Nats’ best chance to get a significant return this summer. He’s hitting .302/.347/.497 for a wRC+ of 126. His defense is generally considered a bit below average, but he’s stolen eight bases in 10 tries this year. It could be debated as to whether Thomas or Candelario is having the better season overall, but Thomas comes with two extra seasons of arbitration control beyond this one. He’s making $2.2MM this year and would be in line for a couple of raises in the upcoming campaigns.
He’s not a lock to be moved because the Nats could hold onto him and hope to return to contention while he’s still on the club. However, his trade value will only diminish as he gets closer to free agency and more expensive. It’s certainly possible that the Nationals return to contention in the coming years, but it will be a challenge with the division featuring a stacked Atlanta club, the ascendent Marlins and aggressive-spending Mets and Phillies.
Harvey, 28, has been a solid reliever for the club over the past two years. Since the start of 2022, he’s made 76 appearances with a 2.86 earned run average, 28.4% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 41.2% ground ball rate. He’s continued to move into higher-leverage spots, earning 11 holds and eight saves this year. He could be retained for two more seasons via arbitration, but reliever performance is volatile and there’s always the risk of an injury. He’s making just $870K this year.
Finnegan, 31, is in essentially the same spot as Harvey, as he can be controlled via arbitration for two more seasons beyond this one. He has a longer track record, having established himself as a viable reliever back in 2020, but his results are less encouraging this year. His 3.38 ERA is still solid, but his strikeout rate has dropped from last year’s 26.1% to this year’s 22.4%, with his walk and ground-ball rates also moving in the wrong direction a bit. He’s making $2.325MM this year.
Rainey, 30, is like Finnegan and Harvey in that he has two arbitration seasons after this one. But his situation is very different, as he had Tommy John surgery last August and is only now nearing a rehab assignment. Players on the injured list can still be traded, though the interest may be muted based on the uncertainty. He posted a 3.30 ERA last year with a 28.1% strikeout rate prior to going under the knife. He’s making $1.5MM this year.
Vargas, 32 this weekend, has plenty of experience as a light-hitting utility player. He had a .233/.268/.355 career batting line by the end of 2021 for a wRC+ of 60 but had played every position except center field and catcher. He’s had better results at the plate since joining the Nats in August of last year, hitting .281/.310/.409 for a wRC+ of 98 in 289 plate appearances. He’s making $975K this year and can be retained via arbitration for two more seasons.
Unlike the other names on this list, Meneses isn’t approaching free agency or making a significant salary. The long-time minor leaguer finally got the call to the big leagues last year at the age of 30 and mashed 13 home runs in 56 games, finishing the season with a .324/.367/.563 batting line and 156 wRC+. He was only able to accrue 65 days of service time, leaving the Nats with six years of remaining control.
His production has naturally taken a step back in 2023, as he’s hit just six home runs and is batting .284/.328/.404 for a wRC+ of 98. He’s been on a mini heater of late, as four of those six homers came in the club’s last three games before the break. The Nats could simply hang onto Meneses given that he’s not slated for arbitration until after 2025 or free agency until after 2028. However, his late-bloomer trajectory means that he’s already 31 years old and will likely be in his mid-30s by the time the club is in contention again. Perhaps the best course of action would be to cash him in for younger players now — if there’s sufficient interest in the next few weeks.
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The Nationals were the star sellers of each of the past two deadlines, flipping Scherzer and Turner two years ago and then Soto last year. They don’t have any players that could reach that level, either in terms of publicity or prospect return. However, Candelario is one of the best rentals available and should net them some decent value. If they get more aggressive and move controllable players like Thomas, Harvey and Finnegan, they could go even farther in stockpiling young talent for future seasons.
Ryan Sherriff Elects Free Agency
Left-hander Ryan Sherriff went unclaimed on outright waivers following his DFA by the Red Sox and has elected free agency rather than accept an assignment to the minors, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports (Twitter link).
Sherriff, 33, held opponents to two runs on six hits and a pair of walks with five strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings earlier this season. He’d since been optioned to Triple-A and, after pitching well in 22 1/3 innings, diagnosed with a flexor strain that sent him to the injured list. The Sox reinstated him last week but immediately designated the southpaw for assignment, needing a 40-man roster spot to reinstate infielder Yu Chang from the 60-day injured list.
While Sherriff has seen action in parts of five big league seasons, injuries have frequently limited his ability to take the field. In addition to this year’s flexor strain, Sherriff has also dealt with a broken toe, a shoulder strain and undergone Tommy John surgery over the past five years. In 51 major league innings, Sherriff has a 3.53 ERA, an 18.5% strikeout rate, an 8.6% walk rate and a hefty 52.6% ground-ball rate. He’s also turned in a 3.08 ERA in 193 innings at the Triple-A level.
If Sherriff is healthy enough to get back on the mound, he ought to draw interest from clubs in need of some left-handed depth in the bullpen. That could include a return to the Red Sox, as it’s not uncommon for veterans of this nature to reject an outright assignment and quickly return on a new minor league contract.
Marlins Outright Jeff Lindgren
Marlins righty Jeff Lindgren went unclaimed on waivers and has been assigned outright to Triple-A Jacksonville, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. He’d been designated for assignment over the weekend.
Lindgren, 26, made his big league debut for Miami this season and has appeared in a total of three games, allowing a total of four runs on four hits and four walks with one strikeout. He’s started a dozen games for the Marlins’ Jacksonville affiliate in 2023, logging 61 1/3 innings and posting a 4.55 ERA with a sub-par 17.5% strikeout rate against an elevated 11.4% walk rate.
A 24th-round pick by Miami back in 2019, Lindgren posted steady numbers up throughout much of his minor league tenure, including a 3.56 ERA in 174 2/3 innings at the Double-A level. He’s been hit harder in 27 Triple-A starts since last year, however, logging a 4.94 ERA with shaky strikeout-to-walk numbers and a few too many home runs allowed (1.32 HR/9). He’s averaged just 90.4 mph on his heater in limited big league action.
Lindgren has already been outrighted two times earlier this season, so he’ll have the right to decline the assignment in favor of electing minor league free agency. However, he also had that right following the second outright and opted to remain with the Marlins. Assuming he once again chooses to stay — he’s listed as active on the Jumbo Shrimp roster right now — he’ll continue to serve as depth in the upper minors, be it in the rotation or the bullpen.
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The Reds’ Less Heralded Breakout Rookie
The Reds are MLB’s most surprising first-place team heading into the All-Star Break. Cincinnati is nine games above .500 and a game clear of the Brewers in the NL Central. They’re 24-12 since the start of June, largely thanks to an influx of rookie talent.
Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain have gotten plenty of attention, while Andrew Abbott has quickly ascended to the role of staff ace with Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene injured. Their midseason promotions have deservedly come with plenty of fanfare. They’re not the only rookies in Cincinnati having quality seasons, though.
Spencer Steer, acquired from the Twins alongside Christian Encarnacion-Strand for Tyler Mahle at last summer’s deadline, first reached the majors in September. While he struggled in that 28-game cameo, the Reds made clear Steer would get a chance to play regularly out of the gate. Cincinnati released Mike Moustakas in January and made Steer their Opening Day third baseman.
The 25-year-old wasn’t long for the hot corner. By the end of April, the Reds had kicked him across the diamond to first base. That put a lot of pressure on the former third-round pick to produce offensively. He’s done just that, finishing the year’s unofficial first half with a .277/.367/.477 batting line over 376 plate appearances. The right-handed hitter has connected on 14 home runs, walked at an excellent 11.2% rate, and kept his strikeouts to a modest 18.9% clip.
Steer has demonstrated a well-rounded offensive profile. He rarely chases pitches outside the strike zone. He’s making contact at an above-average rate. When he puts the bat on the ball, he tends to make solid contact. Just over 40% of Steer’s batted balls have been hit hard (an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater), a mark that’s a couple percentage points above league average.
Prospect evaluators have generally suggested Steer’s raw power potential is fringe-average. That’s atypical for a first baseman, but he’s shown just enough pop and a knack for getting the ball in the air. Steer hits a number of fly-balls, and while they’re not hit with overwhelming power — his 92.2 MPH average exit velocity on fly-balls is exactly league average — it has been sufficient. That’s particularly true at Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park; Steer is slugging .497 with a .204 ISO at home and .461 with a .197 ISO on the road.
That production has been enough to solidify Steer as an everyday presence in David Bell’s lineup. That came mostly at first base in the early summer. He’s seen a little more left field time of late with Joey Votto now healthy. His initial third base position has essentially become De La Cruz’s domain.
Coincidentally, Steer’s excellent start has probably held off Encarnacion-Strand’s debut. The latter is mashing at a .321/.392/.620 clip with 20 homers in 65 games for Triple-A Louisville. He’s done nothing but rake since joining the professional ranks as a fourth-round pick in 2021. On many clubs, Encarnacion-Strand would already be in the majors.
There simply hasn’t been room in Cincinnati. The Reds aren’t going to call up the 23-year-old corner infielder to serve as a bench bat. Votto has been great since returning from the injured list. De La Cruz is entrenched at hot corner with McLain at shortstop. Steer’s presence in the first base/corner outfield/designated hitter mix means there aren’t many at-bats to go around, barring injury.
That’s a nice short-term “problem” to have. Encarnacion-Strand figures to get a crack before too long as injuries necessitate. From a broader perspective, the Mahle trade added a pair of promising infielders to the upper levels of the Cincinnati organization. It looks like a massive coup for the Reds.
Unfortunately for Minnesota, they got very little out of the deal. Injuries kept Mahle to just four starts down the stretch last season. He started five games this year before a May Tommy John surgery ended his season and likely his time as a Twin. The right-hander is headed to free agency and could look for a buy-low two-year deal to finish his rehab with an eye towards a late-2024 return and full ’25 season.
Cincinnati controls Steer through the 2028 campaign. He won’t reach arbitration until after the ’25 season. Encarnacion-Strand is controllable through at least 2029, depending on the time of his MLB promotion and whether he’s subsequently optioned back to the minors. Left-hander Steve Hajjar, the third piece in the Mahle trade, has already been flipped to the Guardians as one of two minor leaguers for outfielder Will Benson.
With Steer contributing at the big league level, the Mahle swap has already helped the Reds emerge as playoff contenders quicker than most had anticipated. They can take the opposite approach to this summer’s deadline, likely by acquiring pitching help.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.