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Shelby Miller Drawing Interest From Multiple Clubs

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Right-hander Shelby Miller is a free agent that is apparently intriguing some teams around the league. He tells Susan Slusser of The San Francisco Chronicle that the Giants offered him a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training but he has major league offers from two clubs.

At first glance, it might seem strange that Miller is so popular since he hasn’t really been an effective major leaguer since 2015. Once one of most highly-touted prospects in the game, Miller seemed to be cementing himself as a big league starter with the Cardinals from 2012 to 2014. He went to Atlanta in the Jason Heyward trade and had another strong season in 2015. However, after getting traded to the Diamondbacks for three players, including Dansby Swanson, things went south for him. He posted a 6.15 ERA with the Snakes in 2016 and then only logged 38 combined innings over the next two seasons due to injuries.

Since then, Miller has gradually moved into more relief work, with very impressive results in the minors. In 2021, he pitched in Triple-A while in the system of both the Cubs and the Pirates, throwing 24 1/3 innings with a 2.96 ERA, 37.8% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate. He got brief looks in the majors with both clubs but struggled to a 9.24 ERA in 13 games.

In 2022, Miller started the year on a minor league deal with the Yankees but eventually opted out and signed with the Giants on another minors pact. Between the two orgs, he tossed 53 1/3 innings with a 2.87 ERA, 31.2% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate. The Giants selected him to the big league roster late in the season and put him into four games, though Miller put up a 6.43 ERA in that brief showing.

Despite that lack of recent MLB success, it stands to reason that clubs would be interested. Miller’s racked up huge strikeout numbers in Triple-A for two straight years and could be a useful bullpen piece for whoever figures out how to bring those up to the majors. The free agent market for relievers has been quite strong so far this offseason, with Edwin Diaz getting $102MM over five years, Robert Suarez getting $46MM over five years and Rafael Montero getting $34.5MM over three.

Given those robust contracts, it stands to reason that some clubs would look to take fliers on arms that can be had for cheaper. Miller is now 32 years old and has a spotty track record that will prevent him from getting paid at those levels. However, the market conditions seem to be working in his favor and will at least get him a shot in the show with someone. It’s unclear which teams have extended offers to him, but Miller would perhaps be best suited to join a rebuilding club. They would be more likely to have space in their bullpen to take a chance on him and could then look to trade him at the deadline if the gamble paid off.

The Opener: Harper, Judge, 2023-24 Free Agents

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Turkeys are in the oven but what’s simmering on the hot stove?

1. Bryce Harper Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

After playing most of 2022 with a torn UCL, Bryce Harper finally went under the knife yesterday. It wasn’t known what type of surgery he would require until the procedure began, but he ultimately required a full ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction, also known as Tommy John surgery. The Phillies provided this update: “The prognosis is for Bryce to be returning as the designated hitter by the All-Star break of 2023 with a possible return to play right field towards the end of the regular season.” Not having Harper in the lineup for the first half of the season is certainly a blow to the club, but it also creates opportunities by opening up the DH spot. That could mean less time in the outfield for guys like Kyle Schwarber or Nick Castellanos, but there are other plans being considered. Manager Rob Thomson told reporters, including Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer, that one option would be Alec Bohm moving over to first base and Rhys Hoskins taking the DH spot. Third base would then go to Edmundo Sosa, with the club presumably adding a shortstop. The Phils have been connected to the free agent shortstops for some time and Harper’s lengthy absence could increase their urgency to pursue Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson.

2.  Aaron Judge Meets With Giants

As expected, Aaron Judge met with the Giants this week. According to Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area, this meeting included a chat with NBA superstar Steph Curry. The Giants are expected to make an offer soon and it will be interesting to see what form it takes. The top free agents usually reach free agency in the late 20s but Judge is a little older, turning 31 in April. As part of our post on the top 50 free agents, MLBTR predicted Judge to get an eight-year deal, which would take him into his age-38 season. With multiple teams at the table, would Judge try to get a ninth year with a lower annual salary or would he prefer to focus on the AAV? Also, who else will he meet with? It’s been reported that the Dodgers are interested in signing Judge to take over right field and then moving Mookie Betts to second base. Is Judge planning to take a trip down the Pacific Coast Highway after the holidays?

3. 2023-24 Free Agents

The 2022-23 offseason is underway, but if you’re already looking ahead to next winter, MLBTR has you covered. Later today, we will publish a list of players currently slated to reach the open market one year from now. This list will be fluid since some players will sign extensions, while current free agents will agree to one-year deals or longer pacts with options or opt-outs opportunities. The post will be updated over time to reflect those changes. There are some very intriguing names on the list, but the most exciting is a certain two-way player who’s currently on the Angels.

Twins Have Reportedly Made Multiple Offers To Carlos Correa

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Arguably the biggest question for the Twins this offseason is how they’ll address shortstop. Minnesota’s shocking Spring Training signing of Carlos Correa solved the position for the 2022 campaign, but it’s again up in the air after the two-time All-Star opted out of the final two years on his contract.

That Correa’s now back on the open market puts Minnesota in competition with the league for his services. Twins ownership and the front office has spoken about their desire to bring him back, although they’re up against traditionally bigger spenders. Unlike last offseason, when the former first overall pick settled for a three-year guarantee to secure the highest per-year salary for a free agent position player in MLB history, he’s expected to command a long-term deal this winter.

During a recent appearance on the Talk North podcast, LaVelle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune suggested the Twins have put forth contract offers of varying lengths to Correa. Neal indicates Minnesota’s proposals range from six to ten years with differing average salaries in each. The shorter-term offers would surely feature higher annual payouts, with the comparatively lesser length reducing the team’s longer-term risk.

Financial terms of the proposals aren’t clear, but it’s notable Minnesota is ostensibly willing to make a long-term commitment to play at the top of the market. The Twins signed Joe Mauer to an eight-year, $184MM extension in March 2010 but have otherwise only reached or narrowly exceeded a nine-figure guarantee twice ($105.3MM for Correa and $100MM for Byron Buxton, both last offseason). A Correa deal of six-plus years would almost certainly set a new high-water mark for the organization, even if the contract contained one or more opt-out chances.

Correa is the #2 free agent of this winter in MLBTR’s estimation, predicted for a nine-year deal worth $288MM. Headed into his age-28 campaign, he’s still the youngest of the four top open market options at the position. Dansby Swanson is going into his age-29 season, while Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts will each spend most of next season at 30 years old. Correa narrowly led that group with a .467 slugging mark this past season, while Bogaerts finished first with a .377 on-base percentage. On a rate basis, Correa was the top offensive player by measure of wRC+, although a pair of minimal injured list stints for a finger contusion and a battle with COVID-19 kept him to 590 plate appearances.

While retaining Correa figures to be the Twins’ ideal course of action, Neal relays that Bogaerts would be Minnesota’s secondary target. Dan Hayes of the Athletic similarly suggested earlier this month the Twins were likely to pivot to the longtime Red Sox star if Correa were to land elsewhere. Boston has consistently maintained a desire to keep Bogaerts, while he’s also drawn some reported interest from the Phillies.

The Twins acquired Kyle Farmer from the Reds last week, at least mitigating the need to dip into the lower tiers of free agency if they come up empty on their pursuit of the top four shortstops. Farmer’s a competent defender coming off a .255/.315/.386 showing during his final season in Cincinnati. His presence raises the floor at the position, but he’s certainly capable of assuming a utility role off the bench if the Twins make an impact move.

Minnesota presently projects for a 2023 payroll around $98MM, per Roster Resource. They have just over $19MM in guaranteed commitments by 2024. Minnesota opened this past season with player spending a bit above $134MM, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. There’s pretty clear flexibility to make a significant investment at the shortstop position, although the front office will have to weigh that course of action against their desire to upgrade in the bullpen, behind the dish and in the corner outfield/designated hitter mix.

Beau Sulser Signs With KBO’s KT Wiz

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The KT Wiz of the Korea Baseball Organization have come to an agreement with right-hander Beau Sulser for the 2023 season, the team announced (h/t to Dan Kurtz of MYKBO.net). He’ll receive a $740K guarantee.

Sulser, 28, made his major league debut this past season. After six seasons climbing the minor league ladder in Pittsburgh, he cracked the Pirates roster in April. He made four appearances out of the bullpen before being designated for assignment, eventually landing with the Orioles on waivers. Sulser would be called upon six more times by Baltimore, working as a long reliever at both stops. Between the two clubs, he combined for a 3.63 ERA through his first 22 1/3 MLB innings.

The Dartmouth product struck out 19.2% of opponents on just an 8.7% swinging strike rate. That led the O’s to DFA him themselves despite his decent ERA at the end of the season. He landed back with his original organization via waiver claim, but Pittsburgh placed him on waivers yet again when setting the 40-man roster to keep prospects out of the Rule 5 draft. This time, he went unclaimed and was sent outright to Triple-A Indianapolis.

Evidently, the Bucs are granting Sulser his release to pursue the opportunity in South Korea. That’ll allow the former 10th-round draftee to secure the strongest guaranteed salary of his career. The $740K figure is a bit above the MLB minimum salary and well north of what Sulser would’ve made had he spent next season either entirely at Triple-A or, in all likelihood, even shuttling back and forth between Pittsburgh and Indianapolis had he pitched his way back onto the 40-man roster.

While Sulser came out of the bullpen for all 10 big league outings, he’s worked both as a starter and reliever in the minors. Sulser started 24 games at Indianapolis in 2021 and picked up six starts in 20 Triple-A appearances this year. Presumably, the Wiz plan to give him a crack in the rotation. They’re coming off an 80-62-2 season that placed them fourth out of the league’s 10 teams.

Who Will Be The Yankees’ Shortstop In 2023?

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The Yankees shortstop position has been in a state of flux for over a year now. In September of 2021, manager Aaron Boone announced that Gleyber Torres would be moved over to second base. With that new vacancy, many expected the Yankees to acquire one of the five shortstops at the top of last year’s free agent class: Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Javier Baez, Trevor Story and Marcus Semien.

However, as the offseason got underway, reports emerged that the club wasn’t planning to focus its resources on the shortstop position. They had enough confidence in their young prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza they didn’t feel the need to hand out a lengthy contract to fill the position. Instead, they traded for Isiah Kiner-Falefa, a glove-first player who had two years of relatively cheap control remaining.

Things went roughly according to plan in 2022, as Kiner-Falefa continued to hit at a below-average level but produced generally solid work with the glove. His .261/.314/.327 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 85, with all those numbers fairly close to his career marks. He made some defensive miscues in the postseason, but Defensive Runs Saved gave him a +10 in the regular season, tied for sixth among MLB shortstops for the year. Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average were less enthused but still had him around league average. He’ll turn 28 in March.

One year later, it seems the long-term plan has not changed. There’s another crop of excellent shortstops this year, with Correa returning to the open market alongside Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. But recent reporting still points to the Yankees having enough faith in their internal options to dedicate their offseason efforts elsewhere. The question that needs to be resolved now is exactly how strong that faith is. Is it time to hand the keys over to the kids or not?

One year ago, Peraza had just eight games of Triple-A experience under his belt. He was sent back to that level to start the 2022 season and eventually got into 99 games. In that time, he hit 19 home runs and stole 33 bases. His batting line was .259/.329/.448 for a wRC+ of 106. He was promoted to the majors late in the season and got into 18 games there. He only went deep once but hit at a .306/.404/.429 level in that small sample for a wRC+ of 146. His batting average on balls in play was .302 in the minors but jumped to .359 in the majors, meaning those improved results seem unsustainable, but it’s encouraging nonetheless. He’ll turn 23 in June.

Volpe finished 2021 at High-A and started 2022 in Double-A. In 110 games there, he went deep 18 times and swiped 44 bags, producing a .251/.348/.472 batting line for a wRC+ of 122. He scuffled after a promotion to Triple-A, hitting just .236/.313/.404 for a wRC+ of 91, but in a small sample of just 22 games. He’ll turn 22 in April.

A surprise entrant into the mix is Oswaldo Cabrera. As a prospect, he wasn’t considered to be at the same level as Peraza and Volpe but he’s shot forward in recent years. In 2021, splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A, he hit 29 home runs and stole 21 bases. His combined batting line was .272/.330/.533 for a wRC+ of 130. He was hitting well in Triple-A again in 2022 and got promoted to the big leagues. In 44 major league games, he hit .247/.312/.429 for a wRC+ of 111 while spending time at all four infield positions and the outfield corners. He’ll turn 24 in March.

With those youngsters being at or near the majors, it’s possible the Yankees don’t feel they need Kiner-Falefa anymore. They did just avoid arbitration with him by giving him a $6MM contract, but they could work out a trade if they feel secure enough in the other options. However, they could also keep IKF around just in case there’s any growing pains with the younger players, eventually sliding him into a utility role over time. Aside from Torres, the other infielders currently on the roster are on the older side, as Josh Donaldson is turning 37 next month while Anthony Rizzo and DJ LeMahieu will turn 34 and 35, respectively, during the next season. Regardless of who gets the starting shortstop job, the club will likely want to keep some depth on hand in case any of these players deal with injuries or underperformance, as they all did in 2022.

It’s likely that the job will be awarded based on meritocracy. Whoever plays the best in the spring and then into the regular season will continue to get the playing time. The others can be moved to utility/bench roles, spend more time in the minors or end up traded to another club. It does seem like the plan is likely to work out, as they just need one of these options to take the reins. By not dedicating a nine-figure contract to a shortstop, they will be able to use their financial resources to attempt to retain Aaron Judge and/or pursue other marquee free agents as they look to repeat at AL East champions in 2023.

But who do you think will charge forward as the everyday shortstop in 2023? Cabrera has the most MLB experience at this point but he comes with less prospect pedigree and seems easily capable of moving to other positions. Peraza seems to have little left to prove in the minors but he’s only played 18 MLB games. Volpe only just reached Triple-A but could burst onto the scene next year. Kiner-Falefa is still around if no one else takes the job. So, who will play the most games at shortstop for the Yankees in 2023? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Red Sox, Narciso Crook Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Red Sox have inked outfielder Narciso Crook to a minor league contract, according to the transactions log at MLB.com. The 27-year-old had elected minor league free agency after being waived by the Cubs two weeks ago.

Crook, a 2013 draftee of the Reds, is headed into his 10th year in the professional ranks. That includes three seasons and just under 1000 plate appearances of Triple-A work. Crook was rewarded for his extended climb up the minor league ladder with his first big league call from the Cubs at the end of June. He only appeared in four games but picked up his first two MLB hits before being optioned back to Triple-A Iowa.

In 101 games with Iowa, Crook put together a .260/.345/.492 showing. He connected on 19 home runs and 21 doubles, with that plus power translating to solid overall numbers. He punched out at an elevated 30.3% clip, however, the continuation of career-long strikeout issues that have thus far prevented him from getting a real look against big league pitching.

Crook spent most of the year in right field, logging 539 innings there and 156 1/3 frames in left while starting just three games in center. He’s spent vastly more time in the corners than up the middle throughout his career, putting extra pressure on him to perform offensively.

The Red Sox have a fair bit of uncertainty in their outfield mix heading into 2023. Enrique Hernández and Alex Verdugo look like the favorites for playing time, with Rob Refsnyder, Jarren Duran and the recently-selected Wilyer Abreu making up the rest of the options on the 40-man roster. Hernández is an option for the middle infield as well, while Verdugo has been the subject of loose trade speculation this offseason. Boston’s sure to address the outfield in the coming months. Crook seems a long shot to crack the Opening Day roster given his lack of MLB experience but could play his way into the mix with a strong start for Triple-A Worcester.

Red Sox Acquire Hoy Park

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The Pirates have traded infielder Hoy Park to the Red Sox, according to the transactions tracker at MLB.com (hat tip to Chris Cotillo of Mass Live). Park was designated for assignment yesterday. Going the other way is left-hander Inmer Lobo.

Park, 27 in April, has spent most of his career in the Yankees’ organization. He went to the Pirates in 2021 as part of the trade that sent Clay Holmes to the Bronx. Unfortunately, he didn’t find much success with his new team. He was optioned frequently between the majors and minors this year, hitting .216/.276/.373 in the bigs and .225/.332/.354 in Triple-A. Based on that tepid showing, he lost his roster spot when the Pirates claimed Lewin Díaz.

Despite the lackluster offense, the Red Sox likely were intrigued by Park’s defensive versatility and speed. He’s posted double-digit steal totals in each of his professional seasons when combining different levels, in addition to having played all three outfield positions and every infield position except for first base. If his work at the plate can improve at all, he could be a useful utility option for them.

The club’s position player mix has a bit of uncertainty at the moment, with Trevor Story and Enrique Hernández both candidates to play shortstop. Both players are also capable of playing second base with Hernandez also a candidate for work in center field. Christian Arroyo could play some second with Jarren Duran an option for center while Jeter Downs is also in the infield mix. Park’s versatility could have him moving around based on how those situations play out over time.

As for Lobo, he threw 22 dominant innings over five starts in the Dominican Summer League with a 0.82 ERA, 34.1% strikeout rate and 2.4% walk rate. He’s still quite young, as he won’t turn 19 until February, but he’s an intriguing long-term prospect for the Pirates.

Phillies Sign John Hicks To Minor League Deal

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The Phillies have signed catcher/first baseman John Hicks to a minor league deal, per Baseball America’s Chris Hilburn-Trenkle. Presumably, Hicks will be invited to participate in major league Spring Training, though an official announcement has not been made.

Hicks, 33, has appeared in six separate MLB seasons dating back to 2015. He’s gotten into 264 major league games in his career, mostly with the Tigers but also with the Mariners and Rangers. He’s hit 32 home runs in that time but with subpar walk and strikeout rates. His overall slash line is .236/.279/.401 for a wRC+ of 78.

He signed a minor league deal with the Cubs for 2022 but never got the call to the majors. In 95 Triple-A games, he hit .261/.313/.510 for a wRC+ of 112. Defensively, he got into 67 contests as a catcher but also saw some limited time at the infield corners.

The Phillies already have one of the best catchers in the game in J.T. Realmuto and a solid backup in Garrett Stubbs. They have a couple of depth options on the 40-man in Donny Sands and Rafael Marchan. However, they did subtract from their overall depth by trading Logan O’Hoppe to the Angels in the Brandon Marsh deal. Adding Hicks will give them a veteran option to on hand should a need arise.

Bryce Harper Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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4:50pm: The Phillies announced the surgery and provided this update about his timeline: “The prognosis is for Bryce to be returning as the designated hitter by the All-Star break of 2023 with a possible return to play right field towards the end of the regular season.”

4:10pm: Phillies outfielder/designated hitter Bryce Harper underwent Tommy John surgery today, according to Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. Salisbury adds that it went “very well” and that Harper could be back into a competitive setting by mid-May.

Harper was diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament back in May, which prevented him from throwing. However, he was still able to hit and served as the Phillies’ designated hitter for the rest of the season, delaying treatment until the offseason. The UCL injury didn’t slow him down at all, as he finished the year with a batting line of .286/.364/.514 for a wRC+ of 138. He then went bonkers in the playoffs, hitting .349/.414/.746 for a wRC+ of 217 and helping the Phillies get to the World Series.

It was reported last week that Harper would undergo a surgery of some kind, though the extent of it wouldn’t be known until he was actually under the knife. One option would have been an internal brace procedure, which generally requires less recovery time than a full Tommy John procedure. However, the ligament damage was apparently significant enough that a full TJS was eventually required.

Of the two possible outcomes, this is certainly bad news for the Phillies. However, it’s not as dire as it would be for a pitcher. TJS usually requires a pitcher to miss about 12-18 months while recovering and regaining strength, but position players can return much quicker. For example, Shohei Ohtani underwent TJS in October of 2018 but was serving as the Angels’ designated hitter by early May of 2019.

Each player and each injury are unique, so it can’t just be assumed Harper will follow the same timeline. But it does illustrate that Harper’s 2023 isn’t doomed. As Salisbury mentions, it’s possible that Harper is playing in competitive games by mid-May, presumably on some sort of rehab assignment that will see him rejoin the team after that. The next question will be when Harper will be able to retake the field, which is also something that could happen in 2023. Didi Gregorius underwent TJS in October of 2018 and was playing shortstop by June of 2019, some eight months later.

The ongoing fallout from Harper’s injury has been and will continue to be mitigated by the designated hitter. The National League didn’t adopt the DH on a permanent basis until the 2022 season, which was good timing for the Phils since it allowed Harper to stay in the lineup for most of 2022 and will allow him to return quicker next year.

While Harper is out of action at the beginning of the season, that will open up the DH spot for some of the club’s lesser defenders, such as Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos. Though the DH allowed the club to hang onto Harper’s bat, it also meant that Scharber and Castellanos had to play the field much more than they originally envisioned. For at least part of 2023, they will have more ability to use the DH slot for those guys. The club’s regular outfield mix is slated to consist of those two along with Brandon Marsh in center. If one of the corner outfielders is in the DH slot, it opens playing time for guys like Matt Vierling or Dalton Guthrie. Then again, the club could also use the DH slot to get Darick Hall into the lineup more, as the first baseman is currently block by Rhys Hoskins there.

Brewers Sign Blake Perkins To Major League Contract

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The Brewers announced Wednesday that they’ve signed outfielder Blake Perkins to a one-year, Major League contract.

Big league deals for player who’ve yet to make their MLB debut aren’t common, but there are a handful of such signings every season. The 26-year-old Perkins is a former second-round pick by the Nationals (2015) who batted a combined .246/.357/.456 with 15 homers and 21 steals between the Double-A and Triple-A affiliates for the Yankees last season. Signing him to a big league deal doesn’t necessarily indicate that Perkins will be on the Brewers’ roster next year, however, as the switch-hitter will still be optionable. Rather, the Major League deal was likely reflective of considerable interest from other parties on minor league contracts.

Perkins ranked among the top 30 prospects with the Nationals and Royals each season from 2015-19, regularly drawing praise as a potential plus center fielder with good speed and a keen eye at the plate. That strike zone recognition was on full display in 2022, as Perkins walked in a hefty 13.6% of his plate appearances.

However, most scouting reports on Perkins, particularly as he began to reach the upper minors, labeled him as a glove-first player who’d need to improve his offensive profile to take the next step. For the first time in his pro career, Perkins appeared to do just that in 2022. Entering the season, he’d connected on just 28 home runs in 564 professional games, but he swatted 15 long balls and added another 21 extra-base hits in just 397 plate appearances.

While last night’s trade of Hunter Renfroe opened up some playing time in the Milwaukee outfield, Perkins is likely still a ways down the depth chart with the Brewers. Christian Yelich, Garrett Mitchell, Tyrone Taylor and Esteury Ruiz give the Brewers at least five other options who are already on the 40-man roster, to say nothing of top prospects Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer, each of whom posted huge numbers in about a quarter of a season’s worth of games at the Triple-A level in 2022. Frelick and Wiemer aren’t on the 40-man roster but could emerge as potential call-ups at any point in 2023. Perkins adds some depth to that mix, but he’ll have to earn his way into a big league audition.

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