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Rangers Showing Interest In Todd Frazier

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The Rangers are showing interest in veteran infielder Todd Frazier, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. It seems the team would be amenable to a single-season pact; the potential price tag isn’t known.

Frazier, 34 in February, has generally turned in above-average hitting and solid glovework at the hot corner. His power has taken a step back from his All-Star caliber days, but Frazier is still a solid veteran performer. Last year, he slashed .251/.329/.443 and popped 21 long balls in 499 plate appearances with the Mets.

While the Rangers still have their eyes on a bigger prize at third base — after missing on Anthony Rendon, they’re making a long-odds play for Nolan Arenado — it seems they could pursue Frazier regardless. Per Grant, Frazier would move into action at first base in the event of another addition at third. He’d pair with (and at least partially displace) Ronald Guzman at first while presumably also seeing action at third, as a DH, and as a pinch-hitter.

It’s a sensible match on paper, though it’s not clear how likely it is to come to fruition. Frazier will presumably also be targeted by some other clubs that have designs on higher-end options at third base. Depending upon where Josh Donaldson signs and how the trade market develops over the coming weeks — the true availability of Arenado and Kris Bryant will weigh heavily — it’s possible that Frazier will end up in some demand before camp opens. There are a number of other notable veteran options still on the market, though arguably none as desirable as Frazier.

Reds To Sign Tyler Thornburg

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JANUARY 4, 2020: Thornburg would earn $1.25MM in the majors, with up to $750K in incentives if he reaches 65 appearances, Nightengale adds on Twitter.

DECEMBER 31, 2019: The Reds have agreed to a deal with righty Tyler Thornburg, according to Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (via Twitter). It’s a minors pact with an invitation to participate in MLB camp.

Thornburg, 31, is looking for a fresh start after finally wrapping up an injury-plagued tenure with the Red Sox in 2019. He ended up throwing just 42 2/3 innings of 6.54 ERA ball in Boston after arriving via trade in advance of the 2017 season.

Last year’s hoped-for rebound never came to pass, leading the Sox to cut Thornburg loose in the middle of the season. He landed with the Dodgers on a minors deal but didn’t make it back to the bigs as his struggles continued at Triple-A.

Despite the obvious issues in recent years, Thornburg has in the past been quite a good reliever. Some physical tools are there, as he still carries a mid-nineties heater and generates excellent spin rate on his pitches, though he managed just an 8.6% swinging-strike in the majors in 2019.

Twins Sign Rich Hill, Homer Bailey

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The Twins have pulled off a fascinating New Year’s Eve double-strike. The club announced that hurlers Rich Hill and Homer Bailey have each agreed to contracts, as Dan Hayes of The Athletic first reported (Twitter link).

Both players secured one-year deals, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). Hill is guaranteed $3MM, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com tweets. His contract includes a hefty $9.5MM in total available incentives which can be met by recording only 15 starts and/or 75 innings thrown. Bailey’s contract comes with a $7MM guarantee, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). He also has some incentive pay available, but only if he gets up to 180 innings, Hayes tweets.

There’s a lot to process here. More than anything, it’s a highly notable development for a Twins club that entered the offseason promising to pursue impact arms. Perhaps now the club will turn over its still-stuffed war chest in pursuit of third baseman Josh Donaldson.

We’ve already seen the Twins move to retain Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda, though the latter will open the year on the restricted list while he finishes a suspension for a banned masking agent. Having bid adieu to Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez, the Minnesota org was left with a mix of rather inexperienced rotation candidates such as Devin Smeltzer and Randy Dobnak.

Now, Bailey slots into an immediate rotation spot while Hill joins Pineda as an anticipated mid-season boost. Hill is working back from elbow surgery and likely won’t be available on the MLB mound until the summer. In effect, the organization has pre-purchased a pair of trade deadline rotation pieces. That’ll make it tough to add any other clear-cut starters now or in the summer trade market, unless it becomes clear that the expected timelines can’t be met.

All things considered, it’s quite the value-driven gambit for the Twins, who raced out to an AL Central title last year but face competition for the crown in 2020. The organization made no secret of its desire to land higher-quality starters, but came away without any of the major hurlers that populated the free agent market.

[RELATED: Twins Will Pursue “Impact” Pitching — And They Can Afford It]

There’s much to commend about both Hill and Bailey, but it’d be tough to say that the new duo is a clear upgrade over the outgoing two-some of Gibson and Perez. The Twins obviously prefer the price tag on the two they’ve landed, but there is a reason that other organizations were willing to promise bigger money to Gibson (three years, $30MM) and Perez (one year, $6MM).

The Twins do have some real potential impact in Hill, despite the fact that he’ll celebrate his 40th birthday before throwing a pitch for the organization. The resurgent veteran has thrown limited innings since his reemergence — both by design and due to injuries — but has been awesome when available. Dating back to his late-2015 run with the Red Sox, he carries a 2.91 ERA with 10.7 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 466 1/3 innings.

Given the unusual incentive structure of Hill’s deal, it’s obvious both that the Twins anticipate a mid-season debut and that they won’t expect him to turn in overly lengthy outings. The master curveballer only flung 58 2/3 frames in his 13 starts last year with the Dodgers, and he can now max out his incentives package if he can extend that just a bit. The organization evidently wasn’t worried by Hill’s recent arrest in an incident he called “overblown.”

If Hill gets back to health and back to his now-typical form, he’ll provide a weapon down the stretch and into a hopeful postseason berth. The addition of Bailey seems intended to address rather a different need — solid innings over the course of the season — though he also comes with a sort of upside of his own.

The 33-year-old Bailey had a nice bounceback showing in 2019, particularly after a mid-season move from the Royals to the Athletics. He finished the campaign with 163 1/3 innings of 4.57 ERA ball, with 8.2 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. In a season full of explosive offensive performances, those were rather useful frames. Bailey logged 2.9 fWAR and 1.8 rWAR in 2019, the sort of output that would justify his current contract if repeated.

Notably, Bailey showed an uptick in his swinging-strike rate, posting a 10.8% level that he hadn’t touched since his heyday. That’s increasingly easy to accomplish in today’s game but still notable for a pitcher that generally fills up the zone. Bailey’s 93+ mph average fastball was shy of his peak but in line with his post-Tommy John levels. His mid-season strides don’t seem to correspond to any major changes to his approach or pitch quality, so there’s no particular reason to expect a late-career breakout, but his peripherals and Statcast numbers generally support Bailey’s low-4 ERA output.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Edwin Jackson Intends To Pitch In 2020

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Veteran hurler Edwin Jackson says he’s planning to pitch again in 2020, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets. The 36-year-old has already thrown in parts of 17 seasons with 14 different teams — an MLB record he set last year.

Jackson was once a prized young hurler and a high-quality veteran. He had already moved around a fair bit when he finally landed a big, multi-year deal with the Cubs back in 2013.

Unfortunately, E-Jax fell short of expectations in Chicago. He has since morphed into the game’s ultimate journeyman, logging big league innings with nine organizations in a span of just five campaigns.

Through nearly two thousand MLB frames, Jackson carries a 4.78 ERA. He hucked 92 frames of 3.33 ERA ball with the A’s in 2018 but limped to a 9.58 ERA in 2019 with the Blue Jays and Tigers. While interested teams will surely not expect a return to that ’18 uptick, there is still some appeal to the durable and highly respected veteran, who works in the 93 to 94 mph range with his fastball and would be a valuable mentor to younger pitchers.

Remaining Needs: AL East

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With the new year upon us, MLBTR is going through all 30 teams’ remaining needs by division.  We’ve already checked in on the NL East, AL West, AL Central, NL Central, and NL West. That leaves the American League East …

Baltimore Orioles [Offseason Outlook]

Outside of dealing away Dylan Bundy, it has been a quiet winter for sophomore GM Mike Elias. There just isn’t much pressing roster-building work to be done for a club that was badly in need of a full rebuild when Elias took the helm.

More than anything, the O’s will spend the next few weeks exploring further trade possibilities. Reliever Mychal Givens and slugger Trey Mancini are obvious candidates to be dealt. Hanser Alberto and a few others could also conceivably be of interest elsewhere.

Other than filling in for any further departures, the O’s still need to add a few pieces — both to keep some standard of MLB capabilities and to seek upside that might be turned into trade capital. The departure of Jonathan Villar leaves an opening at shortstop that hasn’t yet been filled. (Last year’s Rule 5 pick, Richie Martin, ought to get some dearly missed Triple-A seasoning.) The O’s could easily find space for a buy-low option at third base or the corner outfield as well. Adding Kohl Stewart and a pair of Rule 5 hurlers helps the pitching depth picture, but there’s still plenty of room to add arms onto the roster.

Boston Red Sox [Offseason Outlook]

Incoming chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom was tasked with getting the Sox beneath the luxury line but staying competitive. He has taken several steps towards that goal by buying low on Martin Perez and Jose Peraza. Standing alone, however, those deals only add salary to the MLB roster.

It’d be a big surprise at this point if the Boston organization doesn’t swing a significant trade or two over the next several weeks. David Price and Jackie Bradley Jr. seem likeliest to be dealt, though Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Eduardo Rodriguez, and others probably can’t be ruled out entirely.

Back-filling for any departures will be a top priority. No matter who leaves, Bloom will be hunting for value in the bullpen, eyeing up rotation depth, and exploring bench improvements. The Sox could still stand to add another piece to the first base mix (perhaps a left-handed hitter to pair with Michael Chavis) and are hurting for catching depth. Just how much flexibility Bloom will have to pursue new adds will depend upon how much salary he sheds via trade.

New York Yankees [Offseason Outlook]

The one massive priority of the offseason was achieved when Gerrit Cole went rooting around his parents’ basement to dig up the sign he brought to Yankee Stadium as a kid. (“Mom! Where’s my sign?!?!”) Retaining Brett Gardner and adding Erik Kratz for depth also checked boxes.

Any follow-ups to the Cole signing will surely feel like lesser events. But they could yet make a big impact. The Yanks don’t really need anything, but have dabbled with some elite relievers and may have a major strike up their sleeve. There’s some amount of roster pressure involving young power hitters Miguel Andujar and Clint Frazier, but they are assets the Yanks will surely put to use on the field or via trade. Moving J.A. Happ would help with payroll management.

Tampa Bay Rays [Offseason Outlook]

The Rays have not only exemplified, but driven baseball’s de-formalization of roles. Scanning their present roster really drives this fact home. The team is laden with multi-functional players and situational possibilities. This applies to both pitchers and hitters.

In theory, the Rays could add just about any player they like and make it work. Value is paramount. Those considerations explain the team’s pursuit of left-handed-hitting center fielder Shogo Akiyama despite the presence of Kevin Kiermaier, not to mention the addition of countrymate Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, who joins a roster with quite a few other quality lefty bats.

Without any glaring need, per se, the Rays can perhaps be expected to keep doing what they do. We’ve see this organization hammer out somewhat complicated trades involving under-the-radar players time and time again. But we’ve also seen targeted gambles, such as last winter’s wise inking of Charlie Morton. With the powerhouse Yankees cresting, the Rays will need to press hard — and consider going outside of their comfort zone — to add a finishing piece or two to this roster. Given the versatility on hand, just about any high-value opportunity seems plausible.

Toronto Blue Jays [Offseason Outlook]

Public pressure can’t be the sole explanation for the Jays’ big strike for Hyun-Jin Ryu, but it surely played a role. Now that Ryu, Tanner Roark, and others have been installed in a revamped rotation, the front office can breathe a bit easier.

That’s a far sight from declaring this roster a potential winner. But it does seem to have a fair bit of upside in the form of young, elite talent and post-hype bounceback candidates. The position-player unit is littered with names that populated top prospect lists. It’s an ultra high-variance mix, which seems generally appropriate for this stage of the organization’s rebuild.

It’s certainly arguable the Toronto org ought to grab an open-market option or two in favor of some of its preexisting players. The corner outfield seems particularly susceptible of improvement, though the Jays would rather not fully block some of the guys they’ve picked up in recent years. The other interesting area is the bullpen, which is loaded up with uncertainty … and which includes one of the top trade candidates on the market. It’d obviously hurt the team’s 2020 outlook to move Ken Giles, but it’s awfully tough to bypass a return — especially with what appears to be a favorable market situation — for a guy who’ll reach free agency at season’s end.

Will Harris: Overlooked Free Agent?

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For the most part, the upper end of the free-agent relief market emptied out quickly this offseason. Aroldis Chapman stuck with the Yankees, Will Smith and Chris Martin signed with the Braves, Drew Pomeranz reunited with the Padres, and Dellin Betances switched from the Yanks to the crosstown rival Mets. Now, going by the contract predictions MLBTR made at the beginning of the offseason, former Astros right-hander Will Harris looks like the No. 1 reliever left on a board that also includes Daniel Hudson, Steve Cishek and Craig Stammen near the top of a shrinking class. We called for a two-year, $18MM payday for Harris, and although that still seems reasonable, he hasn’t generated much public attention this winter.

Almost two months since free agency opened, just one team – Minnesota – has come up as a rumored suitor for Harris. There could be unreported clubs chasing Harris, though it’s surprising that there hasn’t been more speculation centering on the 35-year-old. After all, since his 2013 breakout with the Diamondbacks, not many relievers have been more productive. Going back to then, Harris has pitched to a 2.59 ERA/2.97 FIP with 9.58 K/9, 2.28 BB/9 and a 50.4 percent groundball rate across 378 2/3 innings.

There was no let-up last season for Harris, who posted a career-best 1.50 ERA in 60 frames. Judging relievers by ERA is dangerous, granted, and Harris was fortunate to prevent runs at such a stingy rate. But the rest of his numbers were also quite impressive, as he managed a 3.15 FIP/3.04 xFIP/3.18 SIERA, 9.3 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a 54.6 percent grounder rate.

Altough Harris didn’t blow anyone away with his cutter-curve mix, both pitches were among the best of their kind, according to FanGraphs. Excellent spin rates had something to do with it. Harris ranked in the game’s 96th percentile in fastball spin and in its 86th percentile with the curve, per Statcast. Hitters had immense difficulty squaring up either offering, as shown by the lack of damaging contact Harris surrendered. He finished in the majors’ 84th percentile in hard-hit rate and in the 89th percentile in expected weighted on-base average against.

Once the playoffs rolled around, Harris’ lights-out performance continued. It’s true the Nationals did get the better of Harris in their Game 6 and 7 World Series wins over Houston, which wasn’t the way he wanted to go out last season. Still, Harris concluded the postseason with 9 2/3 innings of two-run ball, striking out 11 and issuing just one walk along the way.

Harris undoubtedly made a strong case for a quality payday throughout the year, but with 2019 about to turn to 2020, he remains on the market. Youth isn’t on Harris’ side, of course, and he doesn’t carry much experience as a closer. Those factors could be scaring off some teams, but as a hurler who has averaged 50-plus innings of terrific results for the past seven seasons, he has established himself as a high-end setup man. Perhaps Harris will be paid accordingly when the new year arrives.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Minor Transactions: 12/30/19

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The latest minor moves from around baseball…

  • The KT Wiz of the Korea Baseball Organization announced the re-signing of outfielder Mel Rojas Jr., Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net tweets. Rojas entered the pro ranks as a third-round pick of the Pirates in 2010, but he didn’t reach the majors with the Bucs or his next team, the Braves, through 2017. He then went to Korea and has since established himself as a serious offensive threat, having combined for 85 home runs over 1,190 plate appearances. The 29-year-old Rojas totaled 24 HRs and recorded a .322/.381/.530 line across 578 PA in 2019, and had been hoping to parlay that production into a guaranteed contract with a major league team this offseason. Instead, he’ll remain in the KBO.

Trade Candidate: Dominic Smith

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Plenty went wrong for the Mets in 2019, their third straight season without a playoff berth, but the oft-maligned franchise nonetheless turned in a fairly respectable campaign. They got off the mat after an awful start to win 86 games, right-hander Jacob deGrom won his second consecutive National League Cy Young Award, and slugging first baseman Pete Alonso burst on the scene to mash 53 home runs en route to NL Rookie of the Year honors. Aside from Alonso, there were other legitimately encouraging developments among the Mets’ position player group, including the performance of fellow first baseman Dominic Smith.

It appeared entering the season that Smith was teetering on the brink of irrelevance, even though he wasn’t far removed from his days as a touted prospect. The 11th overall pick of the Mets in 2013, Smith debuted in the majors in 2017 as one of the game’s 100 best farmhands, but he fell way short of the hype at the outset of his career.

From 2017-18, a 332-plate appearance span, the lefty-swinging Smith put up a dismal .210/.259/.406 batting line. Smith’s minus-1.0 fWAR in that time frame ranked dead last among all 79 Mets who racked up at-bats, and he also struggled badly at the Triple-A level during the latter of the two seasons. As a result, fans, media and maybe even the organization were down on Smith, though he came back in 2019 to produce far better results than the average major league hitter.

Alonso’s presence and injuries to Smith helped keep him from playing a full season, but he still impressed during an 89-game, 197-PA sample. Playing his age-24 season, Smith batted .282/.355/.525 (133 wRC+) with 11 home runs and a lofty .243 ISO. Plus, after combining for a 28.4 percent strikeout rate with a 5.4 percent walk rate during the prior two years, he made serious strides in those departments. Smith went down on strikes at a 22.3 percent clip and drew free passes 9.6 percent of the time. He also chased fewer pitches outside the zone, made more contact and was equally effective against southpaws (132 wRC+) and righties (133 wRC+), though his success versus same-handed pitchers came over a much smaller sample size.

While Smith did take real steps forward last season, it appears there was some good fortune involved. Smith finished the season with a .368 weighted on-base average, but his .327 xwOBA (via Statcast) didn’t measure up. Even if you’re unconcerned by that and regard Smith as someone who could be a long-term offensive linchpin, it’s up in the air whether he’ll play another game for the Mets. Consider: Alonso has first base on lockdown, there’s no designated hitter option in the NL, and although Smith did get most of his playing time last season in the corner outfield, he’s part of a logjam there for the Mets. Not only could Yoenis Cespedes come back after a couple injury-crushed seasons, but the corner OF-capable foursome of Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis remains on hand. Those players’ presences could help push Smith to the trade block and out of Queens.

As mentioned, Smith’s coming off a season in which he made clear progress. He also has another pre-arbitration season left and isn’t on track to reach free agency until after the 2024 campaign. All of those factors should buoy Smith’s trade value, as should the dearth of high-end first basemen in free agency, yet he’s still not going to bring back any kind of haul. Smith’s position, his lack of a track record in the bigs and a lack of demand for first basemen have likely tamped down his appeal on the market. Ultimately, it seems possible New York will use Smith to get rid of one of its undesirable contracts (Jed Lowrie? Jeurys Familia?), as Ken Rosenthal recently reported the Mets and Rangers were in talks on such a deal. The Rangers still haven’t upgraded at first, where Ronald Guzman was a disaster in 2019, so they might remain interested in Smith. The Red Sox, Royals and Twins also make for a few debatable landing spots.

For now, Smith looks like one of the most logical trade candidates in baseball. However, if the Mets don’t receive an offer to their liking, they keep Smith as a bench player or stash him as depth in Triple-A ball. Smith still has a pair of minor league options left, but he seems overqualified for anything below the majors at this point. Regardless, it doesn’t appear Smith will be able to carve out a regular role for himself as a Met, so a trade could be the best move for his career.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Poll: Should Rockies Shop Nolan Arenado?

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In five-time All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado, the Rockies unquestionably have one of the majors’ blue-chip players. At the same time, though, Arenado’s on-field value could place him among the game’s most appealing trade chips. The Rockies did make a franchise-record commitment last offseason to Arenado, adding a guaranteed seven years and $234MM to the $26MM he was already set to rake in during the 2019 campaign. Based on that, Arenado should be a member of the Rockies for the long haul, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility that they’ll go in another direction this winter.

[RELATED: Remaining Needs – NL West]

As of a few weeks ago, the Rockies and general manager Jeff Bridich were reportedly open to listening to offers for the 28-year-old. The Braves and Rangers, teams that still haven’t filled their third base needs as the new year approaches, showed interest thereafter in Arenado. Meanwhile, the Nationals, Phillies, Dodgers and maybe the Twins come to mind as teams that could at least kick the tires of Arenado if they lose out on the top free-agent third baseman left on the board, Josh Donaldson, or fail to swing a trade for someone like Kris Bryant of the Cubs. (Bryant looks like a more realistic trade candidate than Arenado right now, though the service-time grievance the former filed against the Cubs – does he have one year of control left or two? – has helped prevent his market from heating up thus far.)

On the other hand, considering Arenado has established himself as one of the sport’s most valuable players, Colorado would likely be content to keep him. Indeed, Buster Olney of ESPN has recently heard that the Rockies aren’t aggressively shopping Arenado. While the team was woeful last season during a 71-win showing, Arenado did help the Rox to playoff berths in each of the previous two years. So, Bridich could regard the Rockies’ failed 2019 as a fluke and look for a bounce-back effort from his Arenado-led roster next season.

Even if the Rockies are willing to part with Arenado, though, an offer they deem palatable may not be easy to find. After all, Arenado’s contract still contains a boatload of money – the deal he signed before last season hasn’t even kicked in yet, though it looks reasonable enough in light of fellow third baseman Anthony Rendon’s seven-year, $245MM pact with the Angels. Beyond that, Arenado has a full no-trade clause that gives him the right to veto any move. He also has the ability to opt out after the 2021 campaign, and if interested teams are worried he’ll take advantage of that, it’ll tamp down his trade value.

If not for Arenado’s opt-out clause, the Rockies would be in the catbird seat here. There wouldn’t be any real pressure to part with the face of their franchise and one of the greatest players they’ve ever had. But if the Rockies don’t expect to contend prior to Arenado’s opt-out chance, maybe they ought to market one of baseball’s leading superstars now.

(Poll link for app users)

Remaining Needs: NL West

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With the offseason almost two months old, MLBTR is going through all 30 teams’ remaining needs by division.  We’ve already checked in on the NL East, AL West, AL Central, and NL Central. Next up: the National League West.

Arizona Diamondbacks [Offseason Outlook]

The Snakes have overseen quite the busy offseason effort thus far. To an extent, though, the activity to date hints at more to come. If there’s an area that’s fully set, it’s the rotation … unless the organization decides to pull the trigger on a deal sending out pending free agent lefty Robbie Ray. That would be a strategic decision to turn a win-now asset into future value. It’s unlikely but not impossible that a hypothetical return would impact the immediate roster the way last year’s Paul Goldschmidt trade did.

The position-player mix could be settled, too, though it’s also possible to imagine the club adding another piece. In the event that the D-Backs find good value on a center field-capable 4th outfielder or a second/third baseman, they could shuffle the assignments of existing players accordingly. Otherwise, the bullpen unit still feels susceptible of improvement. If the Diamondbacks don’t find other ways of investing their remaining available payroll space, they could pick up one or more of the experienced late-inning arms still waiting around in free agency.

Colorado Rockies [Offseason Outlook]

For some teams, the remaining needs are largely the same as the preexisting needs. The Rox really haven’t done much of anything this winter, picking up well-traveled veteran catcher Drew Butera and taking low-cost shots on pitchers Tyler Kinley and Jose Mujica. Adding better options in those areas remains a priority, albeit a seemingly unfunded one.

If there’s a dramatic move to be made this winter, it’ll happen on the trade side. The Rockies are at least chatting with rivals about Nolan Arenado. No doubt they’re fielding calls on Jon Gray, German Marquez, and Trevor Story as well. And it still seems plausible to imagine Charlie Blackmon being made available as a means of alleviating the team’s payroll pressures, though we’ve seen no real indication of talks on the well-compensated outfielder.

Los Angeles Dodgers [Offseason Outlook]

What do you get for the roster that has everything? A bigger star, of course. That’s what the Dodgers have reportedly set out to find, eschewing marginal upgrades and allowing Hyun-Jin Ryu to depart via free agency while stalking bigger game.

With the open market now rather picked over, the Dodgers appear to be focused on structuring complicated trades involving some of the game’s best players. Francisco Lindor? Mike Clevinger? Mookie Betts? Intriguing targets abound. Whether any will land in Chavez Ravine remains unknown.

If the Dodgers whiff on their primary objective, will the offseason be a bust? Perhaps, though there’s still ample talent on hand to sweep away the NL West for the eighth-straight time and the summer trade deadline will offer new opportunities to add. There’s an argument that the club could really use another quality late-inning arm, even after a $10MM roll of the dice on Blake Treinen, but that’s about as close to a true “need” as you get with this stacked roster.

San Diego Padres [Offseason Outlook]

If you think this offseason could be drawing to a close, look no farther than the Friars for one of several rosters that could still see major change. The club has certainly picked up some new pieces — skyrocketing reliever Drew Pomeranz, solid starter Zach Davies, outfielders Tommy Pham and Trent Grisham, and second baseman Jurickson Profar — but doesn’t look to have made overwhelming strides in advance of a critical season.

There’s certainly an argument to be made that the Padres can roll with their existing talent. There’s upside in quite a few places of the roster and more coming through the pipeline. But making a real run at the Dodgers-dominated NL West is not going to be easy, if it’s plausible at all. And the NL Wild Card figures to be tightly contested. Even breaking a nine-year run of losing records isn’t a sure thing.

With the threat of organizational change looming, the Padres should continue pushing for a blockbuster, win-now addition. And they probably ought to increase their pain tolerance for striking a deal. There’s still potential to improve in the outfield, especially in center, and at the top of the rotation. The Friars would like to upgrade behind the dish but will probably find that difficult to pull off. Finding a taker for Wil Myers is another notable possibility, with extension talks to follow during Spring Training.

San Francisco Giants [Offseason Outlook]

The Giants are in an awkward position, carrying a combination of underperforming, expensive veterans and cheaply acquired, still-not-established (but not necessarily youthful) players. President of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi has made a few upside-oriented adds this winter but has yet to make any major moves.

Far more than plugging holes, Zaidi is looking for opportunities to build the organization’s talent base. But with the existing collection of established players and the team’s win-always market situation, there’s also some impetus to turn out a competitive product.

More than anything, the Giants could stand to improve at the back of the bullpen and in the outfield. Zaidi has gleefully churned through untold numbers of players at these precise areas since taking the helm. He has made a few finds but there’s plenty of work left to be done. Fortunately, there are some experienced relievers and higher-ceiling corner outfielders still floating around the open market, with trade opportunities perhaps also still alive, so the Giants could yet make more acquisitions.

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