AL West Links: Angels, Davis, Keuchel
It was on this day in 1929 that the Athletics (then based out of Philadelphia) won the World Series after a walkoff comeback in Game Five against the Cubs. Down 2-0 doing into the bottom of the ninth, the A’s tied it on Mule Haas’ two-run homer, and then Bing Miller later delivered an RBI double for the game- and Series-winning run. This comeback came just two days after the A’s scored 10 runs in the bottom of the seventh in Game Four, erasing an 8-0 Cubs lead.
Here’s the latest from around the AL West…
- The Angels aren’t likely to pursue any high-priced pitching upgrades this winter, MLB.com’s Maria Guardado writes as part of a reader mailbag. Assuming their rotation is finally healthy after a pair of injury-plagued years, Guardado projects Garrett Richards, Andrew Heaney, Tyler Skaggs, Matt Shoemaker and Nick Tropeano as the Halos’ starting five, with Parker Bridwell as the top depth option. The club could add some further arms on minor league deals or trades, and I’d argue that one more solid innings-eater is required given the number of health question marks on the Angels’ staff.
- During an appearance on MLB.com’s Newsmakers podcast, Khris Davis tells Bill Ladson (audio link) that he enjoys playing in Oakland but doesn’t necessarily anticipate remaining over the long term, given the Athletics‘ penchant for trading established players for prospects. “I see myself year by year. I don’t know what the longest streak for a player to be in Oakland is, but I know that it’s a business, and one day I’ll have to leave,“ Davis said. The team at least explored the possibility of an extension with Davis and Marcus Semien last year, and Billy Beane recently discussed how the A’s are looking to lock up some core pieces, so one would assume that the club will re-open talks with Davis at some point this winter. Davis has done nothing but mash since joining the A’s two years ago, delivering a pair of 40+ homer seasons and improving his walk rate last season, en route to a .247/.336/.528 slash line over 652 PA. That big year has put Davis in line for a projected $11.1MM salary in 2018 via arbitration, so an extension would also give the A’s some cost certainty over Davis as his price tag will rise again during his final arb-eligible offseason in 2018-19.
- Dallas Keuchel hopes to remain with the Astros over the long term, and the ace southpaw tells NBCSports.com’s Evan Drellich that “winning is going to be the biggest factor” in deciding his future, whether that involves signing an extension with Houston or leaving in free agency after the 2018 season. The Astros certainly seem well-positioned to be long-term contenders, though they’ll face some interesting decisions about keeping their core together over the coming years, with Keuchel being the first of their cornerstone players to reach the open market.
Rays Notes: Morrison, Ballpark, Coaches, McKay
It seems like “a longshot” that Logan Morrison will return to the Rays next year, MLB.com’s Bill Chastain opines as part of a reader mailbag piece. Morrison posted middling numbers in 2016 and underwent wrist surgery in September of that year, which cooled his free agent market to the point that the Rays were able to re-sign him to a one-year, $2.5MM deal. That proved to be a nice bargain for Tampa Bay, as Morrison hit .246/.353/.516 with 38 homers over 601 plate appearances. The Rays seem committed to giving rookie Jake Bauers a shot at first base next year but are looking for a veteran depth option, and they’d certainly be open to a reunion with Morrison if he again faced a thin market. However, Morrison’s career year has likely earned him a steadier full-time gig and priced him out of Tampa’s plans. Here’s some more on the Rays…
- Hillsborough Country officials have run into difficulty trying to secure downtown land for the Rays’ new ballpark, forcing the search for a new site to expand to Tampa’s West Shore area, Steve Contorto of the Tampa Bay Times reports. While the West Shore area has some positives as a potential ballpark site, “broadening the hunt at this point — 22 months after St. Petersburg allowed the Rays to search for a new home away from Tropicana Field — can only be seen as a step backward for an effort many hoped would have been wrapped up by now,” Contorto writes. It isn’t certain if a new site will be agreed upon before the year is over, and once a site is found, there’s still the large matter of determining of how the costs of the new ballpark will be split between the team and the county.
- The Rays have 5-10 candidates on their list of potential interviewees for their vacant third base coach and assistant hitting coach vacancies, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. Tigers third base coach Dave Clark, Phillies third base coach Juan Samuel, former Mariners bench coach Tim Bogar and Triple-A hitting coach Ozzie Timmons are all possible candidates, with Topkin wondering if Red Sox third base coach Brian Butterfield could also get some consideration.
- Top prospect Brendan McKay will be working strictly as a position player during instructional league action this fall, though Rays director of minor league operations Mitch Lukevics tells MLB.com’s Mike Rosenbaum that this decision was made due to McKay already throwing quite a few innings this year between college and minor league games. The fourth overall pick of the 2017 draft posted a 1.80 ERA over 20 IP at low-A ball this season while hitting .232/.349/.376 in his first 149 professional plate appearances, playing at first base and serving as a designated hitter. It it yet to be seen if “Two Way McKay” will continue both pitching and playing in the field, though the Rays still appear open to using McKay in this intriguing dual capacity.
MLBTR Originals
Here is the past week’s original content from here at MLB Trade Rumors…
- MLBTR released its annual set of arbitration projections, as per the model developed by contributor Matt Swartz. Every player eligible (or potentially eligible) for arbitration this offseason is covered, providing an idea about what the players are likely to earn in 2018 and the projected costs of each team’s arb class.
- This year’s qualifying offer will be valued at $17.4MM, Tim Dierkes reported. While only a minor bump from last year’s $17.2MM value, it still represents a nice payday on a one-year deal, so we could see at least one free agent accept a QO for the third straight offseason.
- MLBTR’s annual Offseason Outlook series breaks down in detail what each of the 30 teams will look to address before next Opening Day. The Orioles (by Mark Polishuk), Tigers (by Steve Adams) and White Sox (by Tim) were the first three teams to be featured in this year’s series.
- Jonathan Lucroy is featured in the latest edition of Free Agent Stock Watch, as Jeff Todd breaks down what Lucroy may earn in the open market on the heels of an inconsistent season. Jeff projects Lucroy will still land a significant contract this winter after the catcher seemed to regain his old form after a deadline trade from the Rangers to the Rockies.
- As we prepare for another winter of big signings, Connor Byrne checks in on the 12 most expensive free agent deals handed out in the 2016-17 offseason. Let it be a cautionary tale about the risks of big-ticket free agency — less than half of the players signed to those contracts had fully healthy and productive seasons in 2017.
- With the Marlins rumored to be cutting payroll and trade rumors swirling around Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna, Connor polled MLBTR readers about the future of the three Miami outfielders. Over 45% of voters predicted that at least two of the outfielders will be traded in the offseason, and the option of “none will be dealt” garnered the least amount of support (8.07%).
- In another poll, Jeff asks the readership for their opinion on how much Eric Hosmer stands to earn in free agency.
- With Aaron Nola looking like a cornerstone piece of the Phillies’ rotation, Jeff examined the possibility (and potential costs) of a contract extension between the two parties.
Astros Acquire Juan Ramirez From Tigers To Complete Verlander Trade
The Tigers have announced that they have sent young outfielder Juan Ramirez to the Astros. He becomes the player named to complete the late August blockbuster that sent righty Justin Verlander to Houston.
In exchange for that pair of players, as well as $16MM to cover some of Verlander’s remaining salary, the Tigers picked up a trio of prospects. Righty Franklin Perez, outfielder Daz Cameron, and catcher Jake Rogers were all added to the Detroit farm system.
Coincidentally, the announcement comes on the eve of Verlander’s scheduled ALCS start. The swap has paid dividends for Houston thus far, as the veteran starter has been outstanding. Of course, the Tigers are far better served by interesting young talent than by Verlander at this stage.
Ramirez, now 18, landed with the Detroit organization as an international free agent back in 2015. He landed a $185K bonus to sign out of his native Dominican Republic. Ramirez saw 46 games of action this year in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League, turning in a .301/.385/.362 batting line with twenty walks against just 14 strikeouts. Despite the clear lack of power, that sort of approach holds obvious appeal.
Poll: How Much Will Eric Hosmer Earn In Free Agency?
We’ve heard varying suggestions on just how much money soon-to-be free agent Eric Hosmer may be seeking, or may command, on the open market. That’ll all be sorted out when the negotiations start in earnest, but it’s fun to begin thinking about it now.
We’re now just a few weeks away now from the start of free agency, after all. First, the Royals will issue a qualifying offer — which will be at a $17.4MM rate. Hosmer, inevitably, will reject it, making him a free agent just weeks after his 28th birthday.
By now, Hosmer’s broad profile is well-known. The former third overall draft pick played in all 162 games this year, slashing a robust .318/.385/.498 and banging 25 home runs for the second consecutive season. That’s quite a bit more than he has produced previously, though Hosmer has had other solid seasons at the plate.
The question teams will be asking is whether there’s reason to believe that Hosmer can maintain that level of output. He rode a .351 batting average on balls in play in 2017, steadily outpacing his .316 career rate. And Hosmer has stayed within the same general K/BB range as ever, while continuing to put the ball on the ground over half the time. His hard-hit rate dropped below thirty percent for the first time since his debut season. When he did put the ball in the air, it went out of the park over twenty percent of the time for the second consecutive season, though it’s still fair to wonder whether that’s sustainable.
There are other factors, too, of course. Hosmer is no longer a double-digit annual stolen base threat and hasn’t always drawn strong reviews from baserunning metrics. Likewise, defensive metrics have never matched his generally positive reputation with the glove. In these areas, perhaps, Hosmer’s reputation outpaces what some of the numbers say — as a result, he hasn’t even yet cracked 10 fWAR over his career — although these are among the most controversial areas of sabermetric analysis.
Perhaps the most interesting concept, though, is the idea that Hosmer delivers value that outpaces his direct, on-the-field contributions. Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star just published an interesting, though eminently arguable look at the evident position that super-agent Scott Boras intends to take on the matter this fall. Most intriguingly, Boras is said to be readying for an attempt at quantifying the ways in which Hosmer’s halo adds value by producing “a metric on intangibles.”
Mellinger cites an executive that thinks Boras will be looking for something like $20MM annually on a decade-long term. That’s quite an ask for a first baseman with the stat line of Hosmer’s — particularly in a day and age when a far superior hitter such as Edwin Encarnacion can only get $20MM over three years (albeit at a significantly older age) and with a number of other quality bats available in free agency.
Plenty of less-than-amazing batters have taken down big money over long terms, though typically such players were expected to deliver significant value in the field and on the bases. Jason Heyward, for example, got $184MM over eight years (plus two opt out opportunities). But Heyward was only 26 and was one of the game’s most valued defenders. Oh, and he also carried a lifetime 118 wRC+ to that point — clearly superior to Hosmer’s 111 wRC+ career mark, though the latter did have the bigger offensive platform season.
We aren’t going to get a sneak peek at Boras’s binder. But Mellinger lays out the broad case for Hosmer to out-earn his prior productivity:
But consider this. The Royals built their success, in large part, on intangibles. How much did they talk about clubhouse friendships, of bonds formed in the minor leagues, and of the joy they found in playing for each other?
For argument’s sake, let’s assume that was overstated, and that the parade happened because of athleticism and relief pitching more than anything else. But you can’t have watched the Royals’ rise without believing the other stuff had a part in it, too. The resiliency in the comebacks, the consistent performance in the biggest moments.
The Royals had a parade because of these things, the team welcoming in record attendance and interest.
Shouldn’t the players be rewarded, too?
Do you buy that? Even a little? How do you value it? And how do you value the stat line you expect Hosmer to put up? Rolling it all together, just how much will he be worth on the open market? (App users can click here for the poll.)
How Much Will Eric Hosmer Earn In Free Agency?
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$100MM to $125MM 33% (3,205)
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$75MM to $100MM 29% (2,803)
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$125MM to $150MM 19% (1,784)
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$50MM to $75MM 10% (984)
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$150MM or more 8% (797)
Total votes: 9,573
Angels Engaged In “Dialogue” With Justin Upton
Angels outfielder Justin Upton is still weighing his opt-out decision, which promises to have widespread ramifications for the free-agent market. But as Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports, the club isn’t just sitting back and waiting to learn Upton’s fate.
Rather, Halos GM Billy Eppler says “there is dialogue going on” between the sides, citing a “positive conversation” with Upton and his agent, Larry Reynolds. He did not divulge details beyond that, quite understandably, so it’s not entirely clear just what was discussed. But it certainly seems as if the team is taking a proactive approach in the hopes that Upton will remain in an Angels uniform for 2018 and beyond.
Upton can choose to enter the open market — which he’d do free and clear of any qualifying-offer-related draft compensation — or elect instead to keep the four-year, $88.5MM guarantee remaining on his contract. The Angels are surely hoping to convince Upton to stay, though we don’t know anything else about the substance of the chatter. Beyond pitching Upton on the organization, it’s not known whether some additional inducement has or could be contemplated. In theory, though, the sides could completely re-work the contract, modify it in some way, or instead just continue their discussion into free agency.
Unusual circumstances surrounded the 30-year-old Upton’s move out west. Despite the presence of the opt-out provision, the club acquired him from the Tigers at the last possible moment — during the revocable trade period, on August 31st, the last day that teams could add outside players who’d be eligible for the postseason. Righty Grayson Long and a player to be named or cash went to Detroit in the deal, which included no assurances or future considerations regarding Upton’s remaining contract (or lack thereof).
Upton played well in Los Angeles, though the club fell shy of the postseason. Through 115 plate appearances, he slashed .245/.357/.531 with seven home runs — good for a 137 OPS+ that matched his output over his first 125 games on the year with the Tigers. Though Upton has had a few productivity dips in his eleven-year career, he carries an excellent .269/.348/.479 cumulative batting line through more than six thousand trips to the plate at the game’s highest level.
Youth is still mostly on Upton’s side. So are defensive metrics, which see him as a solid-to-excellent fielder in left. In the aggregate, it’s fairly easy to make out a case for Upton commanding a guarantee of $20MM or more annually for a five- or six-year term — as he received the last time he went to the open market. Now that the risks of playing out the season are in the past, he doesn’t have much reason to take a (hypothetical) offer from the Angels before testing the broader market, though perhaps he could try to gain a sweetener if he’s at all inclined to avoid the risks of free agency by declining the opt-out opportunity.
Antonetti, Chernoff, Francona Discuss Indians’ Offseason
The Indians were obviously disappointed by the way things ended this year, as the club was knocked out with three-straight ALDS losses. President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti, GM Mike Chernoff, and skipper Terry Francona discussed the state of affairs heading into the offseason in a media session, as MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian reports.
Broadly, Antonetti suggested that he thinks the organization’s processes remain sound. He also cited strong performance by the roster in all three major facets of the game, while emphasizing a commitment to continue “look[ing] to get better.”
In terms of how much cash the Indians will have to work with, that evidently isn’t yet known. Unsurprisingly, though, there’s no inkling that the organization will do anything other than continue to try to win with the current core.
The group of organizational leaders discussed a variety of players and situations in the lengthy dialogue, which is well forth a full read at the above link. There’s ongoing interest in bringing back Carlos Santana, though Antonetti was non-committal on how that would progress. He did suggest that Santana could be considered for a qualifying offer, which has been set at $17.4MM. Who’s on first if he departs? Per Antonetti, the team has internal options, plus “there’s a litany of guys on the trade and free-agent market that we’ll explore.”
Jay Bruce proved a big presence for the club after his mid-season acquisition, but he’ll hit the open market as well. Chernoff expressed satisfaction with Bruce’s performance and noted there is some “mutual interest,” though it certainly seems that both sides will also explore their alternatives as well. Francona offered high praise for pending free agent reliever Bryan Shaw for his steadiness and constant readiness to enter the game. Given that, it seems possible to imagine a return, though that wasn’t addressed directly. Antonetti did say the team will “absolutely” consider re-signing Austin Jackson, who he credited for a strong bounceback year.
A few other players could present interesting questions. Somewhat notably, Antonetti said it was a “significant decision” whether to exercise Michael Brantley‘s $11MM option. While he credited Brantley’s work ethic, he noted that “just getting healthy” remains a priority for the oft-injured outfielder. Likewise, there’s some uncertainty surrounding Jason Kipnis, who is under contract but doesn’t have a clear position. The versatility is a good thing, says Antonetti, but the organization also needs to consider “what opportunities are out there externally for us” in all regards before deciding how it will line up its roster. Yandy Diaz is another versatile asset, Chernoff notes, though Francona suggested he hopes to give the youngster a single position to focus on — indicating he may best be suited to the hot corner.
Also, Francona (who will, as expected, remain in his position) fielded some questions on the team’s postseason performance. In particular, he emphasized that there’s no reason to believe at present that Corey Kluber — who faltered in Game 5 and has dealt with arm slot difficulties — is anything other than healthy. Francona also noted that he has never before been so physically drained by a baseball season, saying that he intends to work on his own conditioning over the offseason. You’ll want to check out the link for more on that and other topics of discussion.
Marlins Reportedly Aiming To Drop Payroll To $90MM
Chief executive officer Derek Jeter suggested at last week’s introductory press conference that the Marlins’ new ownership group may have to make some “unpopular” decisions for the long-term well-being of the franchise, and it appears that a fairly dramatic cut of the payroll is in order. Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports that the Marlins are aiming to trim their payroll back to about $90MM — a decrease of $25MM from its 2017 Opening Day mark and nearly $50MM south of where Jason Martinez of MLBTR/Roster Resource projects their 2018 payroll to land at present (once league-minimum players are added to the bill).
A massive cutback in payroll will only further fuel the Giancarlo Stanton rumor mill, as he’s set to earn $25MM next year. However, the Marlins have a number of other well-compensated players that could be reasonable trade targets. Fleet-footed second baseman Dee Gordon has already seen his name floated in trade rumors and will earn $10.5MM next year. He’s owed $40MM in total over the next three seasons. Righty Brad Ziegler, who served as the team’s closer after AJ Ramos was traded, pitched brilliantly to finish the year. He’s owed $9MM next year in the second season of a two-year deal. Martin Prado will make $28.5MM over the next two seasons, including $13.5MM in 2018.
Perhaps chief among the Marlins’ trade candidates when combining desirability, affordability and proximity to free agency, however, is slugging outfielder Marcell Ozuna. While Stanton’s bat would hold widespread appeal throughout the league, taking the remaining $295MM that he’s owed would be a struggle for the majority of teams around the league. Ozuna, on the other hand, hit .312/.376/.548 with 37 homers in 2017 and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $10.9MM in 2017. He’s controllable via arbitration for another two seasons and could fetch a substantial prospect return from clubs in need of help in the outfield.
[Related: Miami Marlins Depth Chart | Projected 2018 Arbitration Salaries]
Right-hander Dan Straily‘s salary won’t be anywhere near the team’s top paid players, but he’s projected to earn $4.6MM in 2018 and could return a decent crop of prospects himself. Over the past two seasons, Straily has made 64 starts and worked to a combined 4.01 ERA with 8.0 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 in 373 innings. He’s by no means a front-of-the-rotation arm, but he can be controlled at a reasonably affordable rate for another three seasons via the arbitration process. As is the case with Ozuna, moving Straily wouldn’t require eating any salary, and dealing him alone could shave nearly 10 percent of the team’s reported goal.
Christian Yelich is arguably the crown jewel of the Marlins’ trade pieces, as he’s established himself as one of the National League’s best all-around players and is controllable through the 2022 season. Of course, the Marlins only owe him $7MM next year as part of his seven-year, $49.6MM contract, so the team can certainly afford to keep him around and hope that Yelich can be part of a contending club down the line.
Certainly, though, the subtraction of Stanton would be the fastest avenue to reaching that sum in savings. Stanton does have a full no-trade clause (in addition to the $295MM he’s owed), though he’s also plainly stated in no uncertain terms recently that he does not want the Marlins to rebuild. A move to a contending club could be fine with Stanton, though the Marlins and any trading partner would presumably also have to put in an extensive amount of work in order to find a middle ground. The Marlins may very well have to offset some of that $295MM sum, while the other club would likely balk at including multiple top prospects while taking on such an enormous financial commitment. Because that nexus will be difficult to find, a trade of Stanton may not be as logical as many casual observers would anticipate; the logistics of a deal would be extraordinarily complicated.
Speaking from a purely speculative standpoint, a rebuilding club with limited payroll commitments could also seek to “buy” young talent from the Marlins by taking undesirable contracts off their hands. While it’d be a massive ask for any team to pick up the remaining three years and $52MM on Wei-Yin Chen‘s contract, a club like the White Sox, Phillies or Padres could theoretically take Junichi Tazawa and his $7MM contract if the Marlins agree to include some minor league talent. Alternatively, someone like Tazawa could be packaged with a more appealing trade asset such as Ozuna or Straily, though doing so would obviously lower the expected return on an otherwise-desirable trade chip.
It’s not clear exactly which path the Marlins will take under their new ownership group. But the offseason figures to be highly active, and it seems safe to assume that the 2018 Marlins will look substantially different than the group that took the field on Opening Day in 2017.
AL Central Notes: Indians, Twins, Delmonico
Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes that with the Indians‘ season now over after a stunning Yankees comeback, the Cleveland front office now faces the daunting task of determining which players they’ll retain for the 2018 season (and beyond, in some cases). The Indians hold an $11MM club option over oft-injured but supremely talented left fielder Michael Brantley, as well as a $3MM option over right-hander Josh Tomlin. Beyond that, Cleveland will have to gauge whether a middle ground can be found when negotiating possible deals to retain Carlos Santana, Jay Bruce, Bryan Shaw, Austin Jackson and Joe Smith each of whom will be a free agent when the World Series ends. Hoynes spoke to Brantley, Bruce, Santana, Shaw and Tomlin about the possibility of returning, and each unsurprisingly expressed a resounding desire to return. “I started a quest back in 2009,” said Brantley of his debut year in Cleveland. “I want to finish the right way. I don’t want to go out like this if it’s my choice. It’s not.”
A bit more from the AL Central…
- Twins owner Jim Pohlad tells Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press that while there have yet to be any talks of long-term deals for young talents such as Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano or Eddie Rosario, those topics could come up in the near future. “I’d be looking forward to that conversation,” said Pohlad, who generally praised his team’s emerging core. Pohlad also suggested that while Brian Dozier was the focus of trade rumors last offseason and is entering the final season of his contract, it’d be tough to consider trading him this winter. “You would have to believe you’re getting a future core player back,” said Pohlad, going on to stress that it’d need to be a player (or players) that could help the Twins immediately.
- White Sox left fielder/designated hitter Nicky Delmonico will be shut down from offseason activity for up to four weeks due to inflammation and discomfort in his shoulder, the team announced this week. It’s a seemingly innocuous update for the time being, though the situation is worth at least monitoring. Delmonico, once a well-regarded prospect with the Orioles and Brewers, put himself back on the radar in 2017 with a big season in Triple-A and a .262/.373/.482 batting line with nine homers in 166 plate appearances in Chicago this season. If he’s healthy in 2018, he’s likely to play on a near-everyday basis between left field, first base and designated hitter, as the Sox hope to have uncovered a hidden gem.
Phillies Name Larry Bowa Senior Advisor To GM Matt Klentak
The Phillies have moved bench coach Larry Bowa from the dugout to the front office, naming him senior advisor to GM Matt Klentak, per a team announcement. Bowa, it seems, will transition to a role similar to that of Pete Mackanin, who was surprisingly removed from his post as manager earlier this month.
The 71-year-old Bowa spent the first 12 seasons of his playing career with the Phillies from 1970-81. He also managed the Phils from 2001-04 and has been serving as the team’s bench coach and infield instructor since the 2014 season, working under both Ryne Sandberg and Mackanin. He won’t return for a fifth season in his current role, nor will he be considered for the managerial vacancy, but he’ll remain with the organization and continue to have some input on the direction of the club.
“Larry Bowa is a genuine Phillies icon and he has made enormous contributions to this franchise during his 33 years in uniform,” said Klentak in a press release announcing the move. “I have a tremendous amount of respect for what Larry has accomplished throughout his baseball career and I am thrilled that he has agreed to continue to impact the organization in this new role.”
Bowa himself also issued a statement: “Philadelphia has been my home for the last four decades and I bleed Phillies red. Whether it is at the major or minor league level, my number one goal is to help with the Phillies organization bring home another championship for our fans.”