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Jerad Eickhoff Out Six To Eight Weeks With Lat Strain

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The Phillies received some bad news on their rotation today, as Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports (via Twitter) that right-hander Jerad Eickhoff has been diagnosed with a strained lat muscle and will be sidelined for the next six to eight weeks. Eickhoff had been projected to occupy a rotation spot behind newly signed Jake Arrieta and top incumbent starter Aaron Nola. Now, he’ll open the season on the disabled list.

The 27-year-old Eickhoff was considered a secondary or tertiary piece when he was traded from the Rangers to the Phillies in the blockbuster that sent Cole Hamels and Jake Diekman to Texas. However, he quickly emerged as a viable big league starter and has since provided the Phils with 376 1/3 innings of 3.87 ERA ball, averaging 8.0 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 with a 39.2 percent ground-ball rate along the way.

Last season was Eickhoff’s worst in the Majors, as he limped to a 4.71 ERA thanks largely to an uncharacteristic spike in his walk rate (3.7 BB/9). Injuries likely played a part in his substandard control, as he missed time in June with a back strain and would again go on the DL in late August with nerve irritation in his hand — an injury that ultimately ended his season. Certainly, it’s not hard to see how either of those injuries could significantly diminish his control; Eickhoff, for context, averaged just 2.0 walks per nine innings through his first 248 1/3 MLB frames.

The initial estimate for Eickhoff’s absence would leave him out of action until at least the end of April and possibly up through mid-May, depending of course on how he responds to treatment and how his rehab progresses. Salisbury adds in a followup tweet that he’s currently being examined back in Philadelphia, which could give a clearer picture of how his rehab will be laid out.

Eickhoff’s injury improves the chances for fellow rotation hopefuls such as Vince Velasquez, Nick Pivetta, Ben Lively, Jake Thompson, Zach Eflin, Mark Leiter and non-roster invitee Drew Hutchison in Philadelphia. Obviously, as that group of names suggests, the Phils aren’t short on replacement options with some degree of MLB experience. It remains to be seen, though, if the injury will embolden the front office to make a move from outside the organization.

At first glance, this wouldn’t seem to make such a move especially more likely. GM Matt Klentak has previously suggested that the signing of Arrieta likely concluded his team’s offseason spending, and while Eickhoff was one of the team’s more reliable sources of innings, the injury is relatively short-term nature in nature.

NL East Notes: Phillies, Conforto, AGon, Robles

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As the Phillies introduce Jake Arrieta today, the organization is now much more clearly in a competitive posture than it was at the outset of the winter. But the pedal won’t be fully pressed down, it seems, despite the presence of a few other notable free agents who’d improve the near-term outlook in Philadelphia. GM Matt Klentak says that he does not anticipate any further additions before the start of the season, as MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki tweets.

More from the NL East:

  • The Mets continue to have cause for optimism on outfielder Michael Conforto, whose scary shoulder injury made for quite an offseason concern. He’s now nearing game readiness, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets, and anticipates getting into a spring game next week. That doesn’t mean that Conforto will be on the Opening Day roster, but certainly suggests he’s on track to return relatively early in the season. In other injury news, via MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (Twitter links), the Mets say that outfielder Yoenis Cespedes has a sore wrist. Though there’s no indication at present that it’s a worrying injury, he has undergone an x-ray and is waiting for the results. Meanwhile, veteran third baseman David Wright is no closer to a return; rather, he’ll hold off on baseball activities for at least eight weeks after being examined recently.
  • New Mets first baseman Adrian Gonzalez discussed his fresh start and unusual offseason with Mike Puma of the New York Post. Notably, Gonzalez says he was initially resistant to the Dodgers’ request that he waive his no-trade protection to go to the Braves in a contract-swapping move that ultimately left him landing in New York. But Los Angeles “sweetened the deal every single time” he met with the team, says the veteran, who acknowledged there was compensation involved.
  • Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com examines the Nationals’ decision-making process with top prospect Victor Robles, who is impressing in camp despite a middling stat line in Grapefruit League action. The 20-year-old is ready for the majors, by all accounts, though the organization certainly has plenty of good reasons not to carry him out of camp. First and foremost, the organization has a solid center field combo already lined up in Michael Taylor and the out-of-options Brian Goodwin; in that sense, then, promoting Robles would mean parting with depth. Service-time considerations are also a factor; since Robles picked up 25 days of service last year, he’s just 147 days away from a full year of service. If the Nats wish to delay Robles’s eventual entry onto the open market, they’ll need to keep him down until early May; keeping him from potential Super Two status would likely mean waiting to bring him back up until the middle of the summer.

Phillies Sign Jake Arrieta

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The Phillies have officially inked right-hander Jake Arrieta, as Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia first reported on Twitter. It’ll be a three-year, $75MM contract for the Scott Boras client, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.

Arrieta will earn $30MM in 2018, $25MM in 2019 and $20MM in 2020, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports (links to Twitter).  Arrieta can choose to opt out of the deal after the second season, though interestingly, the contract also allows the Phillies to “void” the opt-out by picking up a two-year option that would extend the contract through the 2021-22 seasons.

Should the Phils override the opt-out, they would pay Arrieta a base salary of $20MM in each of the two additional years. But those option-year salaries aren’t fixed. Games-started escalators (presumably, based upon 2019 tallies) can boost the values by as much as $5MM, with the escalators beginning at 25 starts and maxing out if and when Arrieta takes the ball for a 31st time. He can escalate those salaries further by finishing in the top-five of the N.L. Cy Young voting in either 2018 or 2019; the annual rate on the potential extra years goes up by $5MM with a top-three finish or by $3MM if Arrieta finishes fourth or fifth. The contract also includes a $1MM assignment bonus provision.

Jake Arrieta

Up until Sunday, the 32-year-old Arrieta ranked as the best free agent remaining in what has been a famously slow-moving market since it opened in November. Back then, MLBTR forecast a four-year, $100MM pact for Arrieta, who’s coming off a four-plus-year run with the Cubs in which he was one of baseball’s best pitchers.

During his stretch in Chicago from 2013-17, the former Orioles castoff won a Cy Young (2015) and a World Series (2016), and he pitched to a 2.73 ERA/3.16 FIP with 8.89 K/9, 2.73 BB/9 and a 50.6 percent groundball rate over 803 innings. Arrieta fell off somewhat last year, however, with a 3.53 ERA/4.16 FIP over 168 1/3 frames. While Arrieta again offered strong strikeout and walk numbers (8.71 K/9, 2.94 BB/9), his grounder (45.1 percent) and swinging-strike rates (8.7; down from 10 percent as a Cub) each trended in the wrong direction. He also experienced a drop in velocity, going from upward of 94 mph with his fastball in each of the previous five seasons to 92.6.

With last year’s decline in mind, it’s less surprising that free agency didn’t go as planned for Arrieta. It’s also not surprising that the Phillies were willing to reel him in at a discounted rate. Phillies president Andy MacPhail and general manager Matt Klentak emphasized throughout the offseason that they weren’t interested in signing anyone to an overly long deal, but they did suggest they’d be willing to pay extra for shorter-term pacts. Arrieta is now the fourth noteworthy free agent to whom they’ve guaranteed three or fewer years since December.

Previously, the Phillies landed first baseman Carlos Santana (three years, $60MM) and the relief duo of Tommy Hunter (two years, $18MM) and Pat Neshek (two years, $16.25MM). Despite those signings, the big-market Phillies entered Sunday with plenty of spending room, and they still figure to fall short of last year’s $100MM Opening Day payroll even in the wake of their expensive Arrieta agreement.

All of those additions certainly aren’t guaranteed to lead to immediate contention for the Phillies, who registered their sixth straight non-playoff season and their fifth consecutive sub-.500 year in 2017. But the Arrieta pickup could be particularly helpful to a team whose projected rotation otherwise wouldn’t have featured any proven options beyond Aaron Nola. He and Arrieta should form a quality one-two punch and perhaps help the Phillies return to contention in 2018 as part of a National League that features three clear favorites – Arrieta’s previous team, the Cubs, as well as the Dodgers and Nationals. Washington, which was a speculative landing spot for Arrieta, will now have to deal with him as an opponent in its division, though the Nationals are still the obvious NL East front-runners over the Mets, Phillies, Braves and Marlins.

Despite their recent run of irrelevance, the Phillies clearly regard themselves as a team on the upswing, as their free agent splashes indicate. After losing their second-highest draft pick in 2018 and $500K in international bonus pool to sign Santana, who rejected the Indians’ qualifying offer, they’ll surrender their third-highest selection (No. 79) and another $500K for Arrieta. The Cubs, who qualified Arrieta in November, will collect a compensatory pick after the second round. They seem well equipped to move on without Arrieta, having added this offseason’s top free agent starter, Yu Darvish (six years, $126MM), and Tyler Chatwood to a rotation that will also feature Jose Quintana, Kyle Hendricks and Jon Lester.

Boras hoped to outdo Darvish’s pact with Arrieta, given that the latter has the better track record of production, but he has instead seen another of his clients collect a lower-than-expected payday. To Boras’ credit, a pair of his players – first baseman Eric Hosmer ($144MM) and slugger J.D. Martinez ($110MM) – did receive two of this free agent class’s three richest guarantees. On the other hand, before Arrieta reached an agreement, Carlos Gonzalez ($8MM), Mike Moustakas ($6.5MM) and Carlos Gomez ($4MM) each signed for relatively underwhelming amounts. Now, reliever Greg Holland is the last high-end Boras client remaining on a shrinking market as Opening Day draws closer.

Nightengale and Jon Heyman of FanRag first reported that the Phillies and Arrieta were headed toward a deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Phillies Designate Tommy Joseph For Assignment

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The Phillies announced that they’ve designated first baseman Tommy Joseph for assignment. His removal from the 40-man roster creates a spot for right-hander Jake Arrieta, whose multi-year deal with the Phillies has now been formally announced by the team.

Joseph, 26, simply found himself without a clear path to playing time after the Phils elected to give big money to Carlos Santana earlier in the winter. Without a DH spot to hide an extra bat, Joseph was a marginal competitor for a bench spot in camp.

That’s not to say he won’t hold some appeal to other organizations, though. Joseph has shown plenty of pop in his first two years in the majors, putting the ball over the fence 43 times in 880 plate appearances. But he’ll certainly need to boost his .297 OBP if he’s going to hold down a big league job, particularly given his lack of defensive flexibility.

Things would surely look quite a bit different if Joseph was still catching. Once a top-tier prospect as a backstop, concussion problems forced him out from behind the plate. The fact that he was still able to reach the majors as a first baseman is testament both to his talent and effort.

Reaction To The Phillies/Jake Arrieta Agreement

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One of the offseason’s major free agents finally came off the board today, as Jake Arrieta agreed to a three-year, $75MM contract with the Phillies that will become official once the right-hander passes a physical.  Here is some of the early reaction to the deal…

  • “For the Phillies, this was as close to a no-brainer as $25 million per season gets,” David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News writes.  Murphy argues that the Phillies were simply in such dire need for starting pitching that a quality arm like Arrieta was too good to pass up, even at a significant price for a still-rebuilding team.  Though Arrieta’s performance dipped in 2017, Murphy notes that even Arrieta’s down year still more or less equaled Aaron Nola’s numbers, so “in essence, the Phillies will have added another Nola even if Arrieta’s 2017 is his new normal.”  Even if Arrieta declines further, the three-year length of the deal means that he won’t be much of a long-term burden on the Phils’ spending abilities.
  • The threat of such a decline, however, makes this signing “a strange one” for the Phillies, in the opinion of ESPN.com’s Keith Law (subscription required).  Arrieta’s peripherals and velocity were both down in 2017, and Law wonders if “this is a Tim Lincecum situation where there’s no actual injury but he’s just wearing down after a great peak.”  Even if Arrieta stabilizes his performance or regains some of his old form, Law questions the wisdom of a contract that will likely deliver most of its value before the Phillies are truly ready to contend.
  • “The Padres had more than passing interest in Jake Arrieta”, Dennis Lin of the Athletic tweets, but the $25MM average annual value of Arrieta’s contract was too high for San Diego’s liking.  The club was known to have been at least considering the idea of going after the right-hander, who could’ve joined Eric Hosmer as the second major Scott Boras client to (surprisingly) sign with the Padres this winter.  Lin feels the Padres are likely to stick with their current rotation mix rather than add another starting pitcher, though “there are fans of Alex Cobb in the organization.”
  • The Nationals had been mentioned as a speculative landing spot for Arrieta for much of the offseason, due to both the Nats’ possible need for another starter and Boras’ well-documented relationship with the Lerner family.  As Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com notes, however, “Nats folks insisted from the beginning Boras was trying to make them more interested in Arrieta than they were.”  Even if Washington was more likely to engage in Arrieta’s market if the price dropped, it seemingly never got low enough for the Nationals to make a strong bid.

Phillies, Jake Arrieta “Moving Close” To Agreement

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3:37pm: The Phillies and Arrieta “are moving close to a deal,” Jon Heyman of FanRag tweets.

1:24pm: Free agent right-hander Jake Arrieta’s lengthy stay on the open market is likely to end “in the next couple of days,” Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. There are still “several teams” vying for Arrieta, according to Nightengale, who adds that the Phillies look like the favorites to land the 32-year-old.

Signing Arrieta would be the second major splash of free agency for the Phillies, who picked up first baseman Carlos Santana on a three-year, $60MM guarantee over the winter. Philadelphia was reportedly “having dialogue” with Arrieta back in late February, though team brass has insisted in recent months that the Phillies aren’t keen on doling out a long-term contract at this juncture. As part of a typical market, that would probably hurt the Phillies’ chances of reeling in a top-caliber starter like Arrieta, but free agency has been anything but normal in recent months. Evidence of that lies in the fact that Arrieta is still in limbo four-plus months since he became available, despite an excellent run with the Cubs from 2014-17.

At the outset of the offseason, MLBTR predicted a four-year, $100MM pact for Arrieta. It’s possible that will prove to be generous, though, as two of the other best starters in this winter’s class – Yu Darvish, Lance Lynn – signed for significantly less than expected, while both Arrieta and Alex Cobb are still without teams. In Darvish’s case, although he didn’t reach the projected $150MM guarantee, he still received a six-year, $126MM commitment to replace Arrieta in Chicago. Arrieta’s agent, Scott Boras, has tried to convince anyone who’ll listen that his client warrants a far richer contract than Darvish’s, but it looks highly unlikely at this point that he’ll get his way.

Regardless of how much money signing Arrieta might cost the Phillies, the onetime Cy Young winner’s history indicates he’d give them a second front-end starter to join budding ace Aaron Nola. The Phillies’ projected rotation is otherwise a mostly unproven group, so it’s debatable whether they’d even jump into wild-card contention in 2018 with Arrieta, though FanGraphs’ Craig Edwards recently argued that they’re not far off in a league with no apparent playoff shoo-ins aside from the powerhouse Dodgers-Cubs-Nationals trio.

While the Phillies are currently upstarts who have posted six straight non-playoff seasons, including five consecutive sub-.500 years, it’s clear they’re gearing up for a return to relevance in the near future. Further, the big-market club has flexed its financial muscle oftentimes in the past and could very easily afford an Arrieta signing now, with Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource currently projecting an Opening Day payroll of roughly $65MM. That would be approximately $35MM than last year’s figure and the franchise’s lowest since it fielded a $58MM team in 2002.

It’s worth noting that Arrieta wouldn’t just cost the Phillies money. Because he rejected the Cubs’ qualifying offer at the start of the offseason, the Phillies (or anyone else) would have to surrender draft compensation and international bonus pool money ($500K in Philly’s case) to sign him. The Phillies already gave up their second-highest pick in 2018 when they signed Santana, though, so they’d only have to part with their third choice (No. 79) for Arrieta.

Jimmy Rollins To Meet With Matt Klentak

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Longtime major league shortstop Jimmy Rollins hasn’t officially wrapped up his playing career since the Giants released him in March 2017, but it seems the 39-year-old is heading in that direction. Rollins will soon meet with Phillies general manager Matt Klentak to discuss a potential role, according to Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Rollins would like to retire as a Phillie, and while he isn’t interested in coaching, “he could work on assisting some players or on special assignments,” Breen writes. Rollins is best known for his run with the Phillies from 2000-14, a period in which he established himself as one of the greatest players in franchise history.

Phillies Linked To International Pitching Prospect

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  • Major League Baseball recently held a showcase for some of the top international prospects who will become available when the 2018-19 international signing window opens on July 2.  In a subscription-only piece, Baseball America’s Ben Badler (two links) has the breakdown of some of the pitchers who made a particular impression, with some of these young arms already linked to such teams as the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Marlins, and Phillies.

Scott Kingery Impressing In Phillies' Camp

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  • Scott Kingery is turning a lot of heads in the Phillies’ spring camp, and there’s a chance the second base prospect could crack the Opening Day roster, Matt Gelb of The Athletic writes (subscription required).  Manager Gabe Kapler considers Kingery capable of playing several different positions, so a super-utility role would get Kingery in the lineup even with Cesar Hernandez still the regular second baseman.  Service time considerations, however, could keep Kingery at Triple-A to begin the season, though there are also some legitimate skills-related arguments to be made that the prospect still need more minor league seasoning.

Mickey Moniak Discusses Difficult 2017

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Newly signed Red Sox slugger J.D. Martinez figures to spend most of his time at designated hitter, though the team is planning how to set up its outfield when he does factor in as a defender. “At home he’ll play left field and if somehow he plays somewhere on the road here, he’ll play right field,” manager Alex Cora told Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald and other reporters Saturday. Cora went on to reveal that right fielder Mookie Betts could move to center during road games in which Martinez plays the field. Of course, it’s unclear how often this will come up for Boston, which already has an excellent outfield trio of Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr. (center) and Andrew Benintendi (left). Unlike those three, Martinez has struggled of late in the field, where he has posted minus-27 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-24.9 Ultimate Zone Rating since 2016.

More from the East Coast…

  • Mets shortstop Amed Rosario exited their game Saturday with left knee irritation, but it seems he dodged a serious injury, Tim Healey of Newsday relays. Both manager Mickey Callaway and Rosario indicated afterward that pulling the 22-year-old was merely a precautionary measure. Relatively minor injuries have been the story early this spring for the Mets, who have seen a few key players (including Rosario, Jacob deGrom, Yoenis Cespedes and Juan Lagares) deal with various issues. The team as a whole trudged through a disastrous, injury-plagued campaign in 2017, during which the highly touted Rosario debuted with a .248/.271/.394 showing across 170 plate appearances.
  • Like his new team, Mets first baseman Adrian Gonzalez went through a season to forget in 2017. Back problems limited the then-Dodger to 252 PAs and a .242/.287/.355 batting line. Despite his recent struggles and his age (he’ll be 36 in May), Gonzalez said he drew interest from other teams and had “secure options” before signing a low-cost deal with the Mets in January, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Gonzalez is the Mets’ top first base choice for now, but if he gets off to a slow start, that might not last for long, Sherman notes. In the event Gonzalez doesn’t rebound, the Mets could shift outfielder Jay Bruce to first once Michael Conforto comes back from shoulder surgery. Bruce hasn’t worked at first this spring, though, and he doesn’t believe he’d be be adept at the position without getting more practice there. “I believe I can be a quality first baseman,” Bruce said. “Do I think I am right now? Absolutely not.”
  • Last season didn’t unfold as hoped for Phillies outfield prospect Mickey Moniak, who struggled to a .236/.284/.341 line in 509 Single-A plate appearances a year after going No. 1 in the draft. Moniak has plummeted in prospect rankings as a result (MLB.com dropped him from 19th to 88th, for example), though the 19-year-old isn’t sweating it. Rather, Moniak told Todd Zolecki of MLB.com and other reporters Saturday, “I’m actually grateful for last season, because it’s the first time in my life that I had to bear down after struggling for a while.” As for his prospect luster somewhat wearing off, Moniak declared:  “I’m kind of happy about that. Leading up to the draft, people didn’t buy into what I was as a baseball player, and right now, people aren’t fully sold on me, so I’m definitely using that as fuel. I’m excited for this year.” The Phillies are exercising patience with Moniak, writes the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Matt Breen, who points out that he was among the youngest players in his league last season.
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