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Alek Manoah

Alek Manoah To Undergo UCL Surgery

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Alek Manoah will undergo surgery to repair the UCL in his throwing elbow on June 17, Blue Jays manager John Schneider told reporters (X link via Shi Davidi of Sportsnet). Doctors won’t know whether he’ll need to undergo a full Tommy John or the slightly less invasive internal brace procedure, but either surgery will end his 2024 season and sideline him well into next year.

Manoah left his start against the White Sox on May 29 with elbow soreness. His velocity was down early in that appearance and he winced on his final pitch of the evening. TSN’s Scott Mitchell reported shortly thereafter that Manoah was headed for a second opinion — typically an ominous sign that initial evaluation suggested surgery could be necessary.

That’ll unfortunately come to pass, likely costing the former All-Star more than a year of game reps. A former first-round pick and top prospect, Manoah looked the part of a budding ace between 2021-22. Over his first season and a half in the majors, he turned in a 2.60 ERA while punching out almost a quarter of batters faced over 51 starts. Manoah finished third in AL Cy Young balloting during his sophomore campaign thanks to a sterling 2.24 mark in 196 2/3 innings.

The last two seasons have been far more challenging. Manoah couldn’t find his form in 2023. He was tagged for nearly six earned runs per nine over 19 starts, leading the Jays to option him to the minors on two separate occasions. While he’d been searching for a rebound in 2024, health intervened. Manoah was delayed by shoulder soreness in Spring Training and began the season on the injured list. He made his season debut on May 5 and was out to a decent start. In five outings, he worked to a 3.70 ERA with a 25.2% strikeout rate across 24 1/3 innings.

Manoah has between two and three years of major league service. He’ll be eligible for arbitration for the first time next offseason and is under team control through 2027. The internal brace surgery typically involves a roughly year-long rehab process. Tommy John procedures usually last 14-16 months. If he requires the latter operation, his ’25 season could be in jeopardy.

Toronto will need to figure out a solution for the fifth rotation spot. They’re fairly well set in the top four with Kevin Gausman, Yusei Kikuchi, José Berríos and Chris Bassitt. Righty Bowden Francis occupied the fifth starter role during Manoah’s season-opening IL stint. He was rocked in two starts and quickly moved back to the bullpen. Francis spent around six weeks on the injured list before returning this week. He tossed 3 1/3 innings of four-run ball behind Trevor Richards in a bullpen game.

The Jays used a few Richards-led bullpen games late last summer while Manoah was trying to work through mechanical issues. That doesn’t feel like a sustainable solution for a couple months. Offseason pickup Yariel Rodríguez could step back into the starting five. The Cuban right-hander has been on the IL since April 30 with thoracic spine inflammation. He’s on a rehab stint at Triple-A Buffalo, where he tossed three innings on Wednesday. Rodríguez has started four games in his first season in Canada but has yet to throw more than four innings or surpass 20 batters faced.

Toronto, which sits three games back in the AL Wild Card mix at 30-32, could find itself in the market for starting pitching at the deadline. They’d be joined by upwards of a dozen teams in that regard. If the Jays fall out of the playoff picture, they’d be in position to market one of the top rental arms (Kikuchi). They’re one of the more interesting borderline contenders to follow over the next six weeks.

Blue Jays Designate Joel Kuhnel For Assignment

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The Blue Jays announced that they have selected the contract of right-hander Ryan Burr. It was reported yesterday that they would be acquiring him from the Phillies for cash considerations. To get Burr onto the roster, the Jays placed right-hander Alek Manoah on the 15-day injured list with a right elbow sprain. To open a 40-man spot for Burr, righty Joel Kuhnel was designated for assignment.

Manoah was removed from Wednesday’s start with elbow discomfort. Scott Mitchell of TSN relayed on X earlier today that Manoah is going for a second opinion and likely to miss an extended period of time. Manager John Schneider informed reporters that the sprain is in Manoah’s ulnar collateral ligament and that the righty will meet Dr. Keith Meister on Thursday. Keegan Matheson of MLB.com was among those who relayed the info on X. Further details will undoubtedly be forthcoming on that, but the Jays will need a fifth starter behind José Berríos, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi.

Matheson relayed on X today that righty Bowden Francis is with the club. He is currently on the injured list but has been rehabbing, most recently throwing 60 pitches 3 2/3 innings for Triple-A Buffalo on Tuesday. If added to the roster at some point in the coming days, he could make a start for the Jays or at least throwing multiple innings behind an opener.

For now, Manoah’s roster spot will go to Burr. He signed a minor league deal with the Phillies in the winter and has looked great so far in Triple-A this year. Through 16 2/3 innings, he has a 2.16 earned run average, 43.3% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate.

That has inspired the Jays to give the Phillies some cash to bring Burr aboard and they will now see if he can continue performing well at the major league level. He pitched 75 big league innings with the White Sox over the 2019-22 period with a 4.08 ERA, 20.6% strikeout rate, 12.2% walk rate and 50.5% ground ball rate. He still has a couple of options and could perhaps be sent down to the minors when Francis is reinstated from the IL, though the Jays have some other optionable relievers as well.

To get Burr on the 40-man, the Jays are bumping off Kuhnel. The 29-year-old was just acquired from the Astros less than a month ago in a cash deal. He has since thrown 8 2/3 innings for Triple-A Buffalo with a 1.04 ERA. His 10.8% walk rate is high and his 2.7% strikeout rate incredibly low, but he’s managed to keep 56.3% of balls in play on the ground.

That has generally been Kuhnel’s recipe. In 85 2/3 major league innings, he has only struck out 19% of opponents but has gotten the ball pounded into the dirt at a 52.2% clip. The resulting 6.30 ERA isn’t pretty but that’s partially attributable to a .327 batting average on balls in play and 62.6% strand rate. Going back to the start of 2021, Kuhnel has a 4.28 ERA in 82 innings in the minors. He struck out just 15.7% of batters faced in that time but has generally kept about half of balls in play on the ground.

The Jays will have one week to trade Kuhnel or pass him through waivers. He still can be optioned for the rest of this year and could appeal to clubs looking for extra rotation depth. He has been outrighted previously in his career and would therefore have the right to reject another outright assignment in favor of free agency, if he passes through waivers unclaimed.

Alek Manoah Headed For Second Opinion, Likely Facing Lengthy Absence

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May 31: Manoah is headed for a second opinion on his elbow, reports TSN’s Scott Mitchell. His initial diagnosis isn’t yet known, but Mitchell adds that it’s expected Manoah will be sidelined for an “extended period of time.”

May 29: Alek Manoah left tonight’s start against the White Sox in the second inning. The team announced he experienced elbow discomfort. Manager John Schneider told the Toronto beat after the game that Manoah will get an MRI tomorrow (X link via MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson).

Manoah lost the first month of the season after battling shoulder discomfort during the spring. He was reinstated on May 5 and has taken the ball five times. The burly right-hander was out to an encouraging start to the season, working to a 3.70 ERA with 26 strikeouts and eight walks across 24 1/3 innings. Manoah wasn’t back to his Cy Young finalist form of 2022, but it was a substantial improvement over last year’s disappointing season.

There’s little to be done now beyond hoping that imaging doesn’t reveal any structural concerns. Manoah’s fastball sat in the typical 92-93 MPH range during the first inning. He didn’t top 90 MPH in the second inning until throwing Dominic Fletcher a 91.4 MPH sinker to start his at-bat. Manoah seemed to wince after releasing that pitch and departed the game following a mound visit (video provided on X by Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi). Trevor Richards came in for 3 1/3 scoreless innings of emergency relief to help Toronto to a 3-1 victory.

The Jays are working with limited rotation depth behind their front five of Kevin Gausman, Yusei Kikuchi, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Manoah. Offseason signee Yariel Rodríguez has been on the injured list since April 30 with back inflammation. Bowden Francis, who opened the season in the rotation when Manoah was on the shelf, has been out for the last month with forearm tendinitis.

Rodríguez and Francis are each on rehab stints with Triple-A Buffalo. While both pitchers should be back before long, they’ve each got questions about their viability as starters. Rodríguez barely pitched in 2023 as he went through the process of applying for free agency. He pitched out of the bullpen in Japan two seasons ago. Francis was rocked in his first two MLB starts this year and quickly kicked to multi-inning relief, where he had more success last season.

Paolo Espino, who has a 4.81 ERA over eight starts with Buffalo, is the only other traditional starter on the 40-man roster. Toronto brought back old friend Aaron Sanchez on a minor league deal earlier this month, but he has given up 17 runs in 10 2/3 Triple-A innings. Beau Sulser, another recent non-roster acquisition, has surrendered 12 runs in 14 1/3 Triple-A innings in a swing role. Top prospect Ricky Tiedemann is back on the minor league IL because of a nerve issue in his elbow.

If Manoah needs to go on the injured list, Espino seems the logical choice to hold the fort until Rodríguez is ready to return. Toronto’s rotation would look perilously thin in the event of any other injuries. While the Jays benefitted from remarkable rotation health last season,  they relied on Richards to kick off a few bullpen games last summer while Manoah was in the minors. Perhaps they’d look at that as another short-term solution, but starting pitching would likely be a deadline priority if the Jays are in the postseason picture in July.

Blue Jays Activate Alek Manoah From Injured List

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TODAY: The Blue Jays announced Manoah’s activation today, and optioned left-hander Brendon Little to Triple-A in order to make room for the righty on the active roster. Little, 27, has just four innings of work at the big league level under his belt from his time with the Cubs and Blue Jays and has surrendered seven runs in that time, with four strikeouts and two walks.

May 4: Alek Manoah is set to make his return to the majors on Sunday, as MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson (X link) reports that the Blue Jays will officially activate Manoah from the 15-day injured list.  Manoah will start against the Nationals in his season debut, and the right-hander is already in Washington and in the Jays’ clubhouse today in preparation.

Manoah hasn’t pitched in the Show since August 10, when he allowed four runs in four innings in a 4-3 Blue Jays loss to the Guardians.  He was optioned to Triple-A the next day, which was the second time that he was sent to the minors during his disaster of a 2023 season.  After struggling badly at the start of the season, Manoah was sent to the Complex League for a deeper dive on his mechanics, and he spent about a month working things out.  Toronto recalled him last July but the results weren’t much better, so Manoah was against optioned to Triple-A yet he didn’t actually pitch during the assignment.

These many months later, it still isn’t exactly clear why Manoah’s 2023 season came to such an abrupt end, amidst some rumors of a possible injury or service time-related displeasure over his demotion.  The questions continued in Spring Training when Manoah made just one (rough) appearance before being sidelined with shoulder problems, and he began the season on the 15-day IL in order to make up for that lost spring prep time.  The results were mixed at best over five rehab starts, as Manoah posted an 8.69 ERA over 19 2/3 innings.

Manoah’s most recent Triple-A outing, however, was easily his best.  On April 30, Manoah allowed a run on two hits and two walks over six innings, while recording 12 strikeouts.  Since the Jays had to make a decision anyway on Manoah since his rehab window was about to close, the righty’s strong start helped make things easier on the team, plus Toronto is also facing a rotation vacancy.

Yariel Rodriguez was placed on the 15-day IL earlier this week, and with Bowden Francis also on hurt, Manoah was the most logical option if the Jays didn’t want to opt for a bullpen game.  Because the Jays have four off-days within the first 16 days of May, they didn’t technically need a fifth starter, and could’ve just kept the other four starters on their usual turns.  Adding a fifth arm gives the others extra rest, and it also shows some faith on the team’s part that Manoah has overcome some of the problems that have inexplicably set back his career.

Manoah pitched really well as a rookie in 2021, and was even better in 2022 while posting a 2.24 ERA in 196 2/3 innings and finishing third in AL Cy Young Award voting.  All signs pointed to the former first-rounder becoming a staple of Toronto’s rotation, except his numbers suddenly plummeted downward in 2023.  Batters were suddenly making tons of hard contact against Manoah’s offerings (after he had some of the best hard-hit ball stats in the league in 2021-22), and his walk rate skyrocketed to 14.2%.

As surprising as it was to see Manoah sharply regress, it would be equally surprising to see him quickly revert to his ace form over the course of the 2024 campaign.  Just pitching well enough to stick in the majors would count as a nice sign of progress that Manoah was getting closer to being on track, plus that scenario would naturally be a huge help for the Blue Jays’ rotation depth.  If Manoah is able to last as a fifth starter, Rodriguez and Francis could be deployed as swingmen when healthy, adding enough length to keep the relief corps fresh over the course of the season.

In a more immediate Blue Jays roster move, Kevin Kiermaier was activated from the 10-day injured list today, with outfielder Nathan Lukes sent down to Triple-A.  Kiermaier ended up missing only a minimal amount of time due to hip flexor inflammation, which is a relief given how Kiermaier underwent hip surgery in 2022.  The IL trip might well serve as a reset on Kiermaier’s season, as he was hitting only .193/.246/.228 in 62 plate appearances before being sidelined.

Blue Jays Notes: Hernandez, Tiedemann, Manoah, Rodriguez

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After Friday’s 12-2 blowout loss to the Dodgers, the Blue Jays now have a 13-14 record over their first 27 games, and (via tiebreaker) sit in last place in the AL East.  While there has been plenty of inconsistency within the pitching staff, Toronto’s most glaring problem has been a lack of offense — the Jays rank 24th of 30 teams in runs (98), and their .197 average with runners in scoring position is the third-worst in the league.

This slow offensive start has only generated more questions (and second-guessing) about the Blue Jays’ offseason approach to upgrading the lineup, notwithstanding the team’s high-profile attempt at signing Shohei Ohtani.  This isn’t to say what the Jays check in with a number of other bats, including a notable former Blue Jay slugger in Teoscar Hernandez.

As Hernandez told Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi, the Jays made contact “at the beginning” of the offseason and “said to not forget about them.”  However, later talks didn’t yield much or any progress towards a deal, as “obviously when we exchanged numbers and years and all that stuff, they said they could not go that far.  That was about it.”

Hernandez blossomed into an All-Star over his six seasons in Toronto, hitting .263/.320/.503 with 129 homers in 2419 plate appearances for the Blue Jays from 2017-22.  Despite this production, the Jays dealt Hernandez to the Mariners in November 2022 in exchange for Erik Swanson and pitching prospect Adam Macko.  Hernandez was entering his final year of salary arbitration prior to free agency, plus the Jays felt a need to improve their outfield defense and contact hitting, as Hernandez struck out a lot and didn’t offer much in the way of glovework.

Considering that Swanson pitched well last season and Hernandez hit an underwhelming .258/.305/.435 in Seattle, Toronto’s logic in making the deal seemed sound.  The outfielder’s so-so numbers resulted in what was essentially a “prove it” type of contract in free agency, as Hernandez signed with Los Angeles on a $23.5MM deal (including $8.5MM in deferrals) covering just the 2024 season.  To date, Hernandez has bounced back quite nicely, to the tune of six home runs and a .267/.336/.486 slash line over his first 117 PA in Dodger Blue.

It is understandable why the Blue Jays might have been wary about committing $23.5MM to a hitter coming off such an average season, and all things being equal financially, it is also possible Hernandez might’ve preferred joining a star-studded L.A. lineup rather than return to a team that just traded him only a year earlier.  That said, Hernandez’s April numbers would’ve obviously been a huge help to the Jays’ lineup, and perhaps a more prudent investment than the $18MM in combined salary the team is paying Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa this season.  Kiner-Falefa’s bat has been decent enough but he is one of several comparable infielders on Toronto’s roster, while Kiermaier has contributed next to nothing at the plate and is currently on the injured list dealing with inflammation in his hip flexor.

Ricky Tiedemann is another player on the mend, as the southpaw is on the seven-day injured list at Triple-A Buffalo.  Jays manager John Schneider provided some positive news on Tiedemann’s status Friday, telling MLB.com’s Julia Kreuz and other reporters that Tiedemann is dealing with ulnar nerve inflammation, and not any structural damage to his left elbow.  It isn’t quite clear yet when Tiedemann might be back on the mound for Buffalo, but he should start throwing again within 7-10 days.

Ranked as one of baseball’s top pitching prospects, Tiedemann hasn’t pitched all that much over three pro seasons, with just 130 2/3 total minor league innings under his belt.  That total includes only 44 frames (32 at Double-A) in 2023, as Tiedemann battles biceps and shoulder problems for much of the year.  Heading into this season, Tiedemann also had hamstring and calf issues during Spring Training, then tossed eight innings over three Triple-A starts before his IL placement.

Getting Tiedemann healthy is the Blue Jays’ top priority, and he’ll need to bank some quality innings at Triple-A before garnering consideration for his first big league call-up.  Some amount of extra pressure is perhaps unavoidable for Tiedemann given both the top-100 hype, and his outsized importance on a Jays team lacking in rotation depth.  In the event of an injury within the starting rotation, Paolo Espino might be the next man up by default, as Bowden Francis is on the 15-day IL and Alek Manoah’s status remains in question given his shaky rehab performances.

Yariel Rodriguez has pitched well over his first three career Major League starts, so for now, Rodriguez has solidified his claim to the fifth starter’s job.  As the Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath noted earlier this week, however, Rodriguez is on an unspecified innings limit since he didn’t pitch at all in 2023, and it remains to be seen how the Blue Jays might dole out those innings in the right-hander’s rookie season.  Rodriguez could be moved back to the bullpen at some point in order to limit his usage, but that would require someone else to step up for rotation work.

Manoah’s 11.85 ERA over 13 2/3 innings in his four rehab outings is hard to ignore, as even though rehab starts are more about health and figuring things out rather than results, Manoah is still being plagued by control problems and the home run ball.  The Jays placed Manoah on the 15-day injured list to begin the season as the right-hander was bothered by shoulder soreness during Spring Training, and as McGrath observes, the 30-day rehab window ends for Manoah on May 6.  He could be optioned to Triple-A at that point, or potentially become an option for the 26-man roster if he looks better in what should be two more rehab outings.  Manoah is also slated to throw a bullpen session in Toronto this weekend in front of the team’s big league coaching staff.

Blue Jays Place Bowden Francis On Injured List

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The Blue Jays announced today that right-hander Bowden Francis has been played on the 15-day injured list with right forearm extensor tendinitis. Left-hander Brendon Little was recalled in a corresponding move.

At first glance, the loss of Francis might not seem to be too significant since he was operating as the club’s long reliever. However, when combined with other details, it highlights the thin starting depth for the Jays.

The club has a strong five-man rotation at the moment in Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Yusei Kikuchi and Yariel Rodríguez. The latter is the least established of that bunch but he has looked solid so far, with a 3.86 earned run average through his first three starts, striking out 28.8% of batters faced.

But with Francis now on the shelf, it’s unclear who the club would turn to if any of those five suffered an injury. Mitch White was in the mix earlier this year but he was recently squeezed off the roster and traded to the Giants, so he’s no longer an option.

Alek Manoah is theoretically a possibility, but the Jays likely aren’t too excited about turning to him again. He was a borderline ace in 2021 and 2022 but struggled badly last year, with his ERA ticking up to 5.87. Here in 2024, he started the season on the injured list due to right shoulder inflammation.

He has been on a rehab assignment in the minors in recent weeks but hasn’t looked great, having allowed 18 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings. Reading the stat line on a rehab assignment can’t always tell you everything since a pitcher might simply be focused on getting the ball over the plate and staying healthy while caring less about the results. However, Scott Mitchell of TSN relays that the eye test was also not good during Manoah’s outing for Buffalo last night, with his velocity noticeably down.

Prospect Ricky Tiedemann had been throwing in Triple-A and could have been considered an option until recently, but he was sent for an MRI due to some discomfort in his throwing elbow. It’s still unclear what the next steps are for him but his last appearance was two weeks ago.

For now, the rotation is in okay shape but injuries are fairly inevitable. Even if everyone stays healthy, Rodríguez might hit a wall at some point. He didn’t pitch at all last year after the World Baseball Classic, as he didn’t return to his team in Japan while trying to be declared a free agent. Even prior to that mostly dormant season, he was working as a reliever in the NPB and will be challenged to suddenly shoulder a starter’s workload for all of 2024.

With Francis and Tiedemann hurt, White gone and Manoah struggling, the Jays will have to think about who is next up. Paolo Espino is on the 40-man roster but he is a 37-year-old journeyman. Adam Macko is also on the roster but he’s not yet reached Triple-A and only has three Double-A starts on his track record.

Given the sudden subtraction of depth, the Jays will likely keep a close eye on the waiver wire or perhaps make a small trade to add some veteran depth. If they want to turn to free agency, guys like Rich Hill and Noah Syndergaard are still out there, though they would need a few weeks to get into game shape after missing Spring Training.

Blue Jays Notes: Romano, Jansen, Serven, Manoah

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The Blue Jays concluded their season-opening 10-game road trip with an 8-3 loss today against the Yankees.  Starter Bowden Francis lasted three innings, pitching well in the first two frames but then surrendering a Giancarlo Stanton grand slam as part of a five-run inning for New York.  The Jays had their share of offensive chances but left 11 men on base and went 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position.  Toronto’s .197 batting average with RISP is the third-lowest in baseball this season, as the Jays’ struggles at cashing in runners have seemingly continued (and even worsened) from 2023.

Some injury updates from the Blue Jays’ roster…

  • Jordan Romano is set to throw a live batting practice session on Monday, manager John Schneider told Sportnet’s Shi Davidi (X link) and other reporters.  The Jays closer started the season on the 15-day injured list due to elbow inflammation but has steadily been ramping up his work and looks to be heading towards a rehab assignment.  The absences of Romano and Erik Swanson have left the bullpen short-handed, though Swanson could potentially be activated as early as Tuesday.
  • Schneider also provided an update on Danny Jansen, who is facing pitches from a high-velocity machine as he work his way back from a small fracture in his right wrist.  Jansen has yet to resume catching duties, though some consideration was given to the idea of Jansen catching a Single-A rehab outing today.
  • With Jansen out, Brian Serven has been acting as the Blue Jays’ backup catcher, though Serven had a bit of an injury scare himself in Saturday’s game with the Yankees.  As Davidi relates in another piece, X-rays were negative on Serven’s left hand after Anthony Volpe’s checked swing hit Serven’s glove on what appeared to be a third strike.  (Volpe was awarded first base on a catcher’s interference call, leading Schneider to describe the unusual play as “almost like a loophole” in the interference rules.)  Serven finished the game but said he couldn’t feel his left hand for the rest of the game.  Alejandro Kirk was behind the plate today as Serven didn’t play, but if Serven also has to miss time due to his hand issue, the Jays might to go further down the depth chart.  Isiah Kiner-Falefa is a former catcher could fill in as a backup in a pinch, and Payton Henry is catching at Triple-A but would need a spot created on the 40-man roster.
  • Alek Manoah began a rehab assignment with a start at Single-A Dunedin today, with some rough results.  As related by MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson, Manoah threw 58 pitches over 1 2/3 innings, allowing seven runs (six earned) while also hitting a batter and issuing four walks.  Between this outing and a similarly shaky performance in his lone Spring Training performance, Manoah’s recovery from shoulder soreness is only part of the story as Manoah is still seemingly miles away from his pre-2023 form.  An All-Star and a burgeoning ace in 2022, Manoah stumbled badly during a 2023 season that saw him battle severe control issues, deal with some injuries, and spend a good chunk of the year in the minors.  It isn’t clear what the next step in Manoah’s rehab might be, as Matheson notes that today’s outing could delay the eventual plan to move Manoah’s rehab to Triple-A Buffalo.

Blue Jays Expect To Place Manoah, Swanson, Romano On Injured List

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The Blue Jays will place closer Jordan Romano and setup man Erik Swanson on the injured list to begin the season, manager John Schneider announced to reporters Wednesday (X thread via Shi Davidi of Sportsnet). Right-hander Alek Manoah is also likely headed to the 15-day IL, the manager added, though it seems that’ll just be to allow him some extra time to continue building up after he was slowed by shoulder trouble earlier in camp. Manoah tossed 34 pitches in a simulated game today and will continue to build from there. Righties Nate Pearson and Wes Parsons will open the season on the big league roster in place of Romano and Swanson.

Both Romano and Swanson recently underwent MRIs after experiencing some discomfort, neither of which revealed structural damage. Romano has some inflammation in his elbow, while Swanson is dealing with some tightness in his forearm. Neither is expected to miss significant time, but it’s nonetheless a blow to the Jays’ bullpen in the early stages of the season.

Romano, 31 next month, has become a powerhouse at the back of the Toronto ’pen. Over the past four seasons, he’s pitched to a 2.29 ERA (3.13 FIP, 3.14 SIERA) with a gaudy 30.8% strikeout rate against a 9.2% walk rate. Last year’s K-BB% wasn’t quite as dominant as in the prior three seasons, but Romano’s 17.1% swinging-strike rate was a flat-out elite mark that hints at a potential “rebound” in strikeout rate (as much as anyone needs to “rebound” from a generally excellent 29% mark in that regard). The right-hander also tied a career-high with 36 saves.

The 30-year-old Swanson, acquired from the Mariners in last offseason’s Teoscar Hernandez trade, would’ve been the favorite to step into closing duties for Romano were he healthy. He posted a 2.97 ERA in his first season with the Jays and carries a terrific 2.60 earned run average (3.04 FIP, 3.07 SIERA) over the past three seasons. During that time, Swanson has punched out 29.4% of his opponents against a very strong 6.7% walk rate.

With Romano and Swanson shelved to begin the year, closing duties will presumably fall to veteran Yimi Garcia. Setup options include Chad Green, the aforementioned Pearson, lefty Tim Mayza and fellow southpaw Genesis Cabrera. The Jays still have a decent group of relievers, but any team’s bullpen is going to look a little dicey when subtracting its two clear best relievers, as is the case in Toronto.

As for the rotation, Manoah is slotted into the No. 5 spot as he looks to rebound from last year’s nightmarish season. The Jays were concerned for a bit that staff ace Kevin Gausman would also require an IL stint, but it seems he’s progressed enough to avoid that fate. They’ll still open the season with Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi starting the first three games, but Gausman will be in line for the fourth or fifth game. He just pitched in a final spring tune-up outing Monday and thus won’t be sufficiently rested for an Opening Day nod.

With Manoah out, righty Bowden Francis will get the rotation nod to begin the season. He’s already been confirmed for the roster — his first career Opening Day roster spot — and will look to build on last year’s impressive rookie showing. The 27-year-old tossed 36 1/3 frames of 1.73 ERA ball with plus strikeout and walk rates (25.7% and 5.9%, respectively) over the life of 20 relief appearances. Francis has typically been a starter in the minors, so an early rotation role will be plenty familiar for him. He could be the first man up in the rotation throughout the early portion of the season if the Jays incur injuries on the staff, though top prospect Ricky Tiedemann will also likely make his big league debut at some point this season.

Blue Jays Notes: Swanson, Rotation, Clement

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Blue Jays reliever Erik Swanson has recently been dealing with a scary situation, as it was announced last week that his son Toby was struck by a car and had to be airlifted to hospital. Thankfully, it seems things have progressed well since then. Swanson spoke with members of the media today, including Keegan Matheson of MLB.com, passing along the good news. “I stand here, very happily, telling you that in the next day or two, he should probably be going home.”

Toby’s health is obviously more important than baseball, but it sounds as though Swanson may be able to start turning his attentions back to his upcoming season. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet relays that Swanson threw about 20 pitches today at the club’s complex and is on track to be ready for Opening Day, though he may throw another side session before getting into an organized game. Swanson made 69 appearances for the Jays last year, earning four saves and 29 holds while posting a 2.97 ERA.

Turning to the Toronto rotation, a few question marks have popped up here in camp as both Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah were slowed by some shoulder soreness. The depth was also a bit of a concern, as Yariel Rodríguez was dealing with some back spasms while prospect Ricky Tiedemann was battling inflammation in his calf and hamstring.

As of today, three of those four appear to be progressing in a positive direction, with Manoah being the exception. Per Matheson, Manoah’s shoulder is still sore and he wasn’t able to throw today’s scheduled bullpen session. His recent MRI didn’t show any structural damage but the delays from the continued discomfort are starting to put his readiness for the start of the season in question.

Elsewhere, the news is more positive. Per Nicholson-Smith, the Jays are hopeful that Gausman can be throwing off a mound by Monday and start building up for the season. Tiedemann will be starting Saturday’s game, per Matheson, which could allow him to be almost fully built up by Opening Day. As for Rodríguez, Francys Romero relays that he’s feeling better and will throw live BP tomorrow, with game action to follow if all goes well.

The Jays figure to open the season with José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi in three rotation spots. Gausman and Manoah would join them if they were healthy but it sounds as though that’s unlikely to be the case with Manoah and at least somewhat uncertain with Gausman. Both Bowden Francis and Mitch White are getting stretched out in spring and could step into a rotation spot to start the year. If only one is needed, White is out of options but Francis still has one option year remaining. That could give White a leg up but he could also find himself in the bullpen as a long reliever if Francis takes the job.

Rodríguez and Tiedemann will be battling Francis and White for innings as well but they may be held back by their spring delays and general workload concerns. Rodríguez had been working as a reliever in Japan and didn’t pitch at all in 2023 after the World Baseball Classic as he waited to be released from his NPB contract. Tiedemann dealt with various injuries last year and only tossed 47 innings in the minors, followed by 18 more in the Arizona Fall League. The Jays would likely prefer to be cautious with both of them as opposed to rushing them into a season-opening big league jobs.

Elsewhere on Toronto’s roster, the Jays are facing an interesting decision with infielder Ernie Clement, as laid out in a column from Nicholson-Smith. Clement has long been considered a glove-first player but seemed to take a step forward offensively last year. He hit .380/.385/.500 in his 52 big league plate appearances and .348/.401/.544 in Triple-A.

He likely won’t be able to sustain the .391 batting average on balls in play he ran in the majors last year or even the .338 mark he had in Triple-A, as major league average was .297 in 2023. But he clearly has a knack for putting the bat on the ball as he hardly ever strikes out. He was punched out just 7.7% of the time in the big leagues last year and just 5% of the time in Triple-A.

Even passable offense can make him a solid bench piece, since he’s considered a quality defender at multiple positions, having lined up at all four infield spots and the outfield corners in his career. But he’s now out of options and can’t be sent down. The Jays will need at least one bench spot for a catcher and then may need others for guys like Davis Schneider, Daniel Vogelbach, Spencer Horwitz, Nathan Lukes or Santiago Espinal.

Nicholson-Smith speaks to a scout from a rival club who suggests Clement would likely draw interest if the Jays tried to pass him through waivers but that he might be kept around as a backup to shortstop Bo Bichette.

Blue Jays Notes: Chapman, Manoah, Tiedemann, Rodriguez

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Matt Chapman’s tenure with the Blue Jays ended for good when the third baseman signed with the Giants yesterday, scuttling any chances of a possible return to Toronto.  The Blue Jays’ additions of Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Justin Turner didn’t entirely close the door on the possibility that Chapman and the Jays could perhaps reach some sort of deal, especially since we just saw Cody Bellinger (like Chapman, a Boras Corporation client) re-sign with his former team on a short-term contract with multiple opt-outs.

The Jays had also been linked to Chapman’s market earlier this winter, and their interest in retaining Chapman dated back well before he entered free agency.  Back in November, TSN’s Scott Mitchell reported that Chapman had at some point turned down an extension offer worth more than $100MM over four or five years.  Mitchell added more detail in a post on X earlier today, saying the Blue Jays’ offer was actually a six-year pact worth $120MM.

Chapman ended up with a three-year, $54MM guarantee from San Francisco, and the third baseman can opt out of the deal after either the 2024 or 2025 seasons.  Based on sheer dollar value alone, it is easy to second-guess Chapman’s decision to reject Toronto’s extension offer at the moment, though six years and $120MM would’ve seemed like something of a bargain for Chapman for much of the 2023 campaign.  Even though a finger injury contributed to Chapman’s big dropoff at the plate late in the season, MLBTR still projected him to land six years and $150MM this winter, owing to both his still-excellent defensive play, his outstanding advanced metrics, and the lack of position-player depth in the rest of the free agent class.

However, a bustling market never really seemed to develop.  The Mariners, Cubs, Blue Jays, and Giants ended up being the only teams publicly linked to Chapman, and the third baseman ultimately chose the shorter-term deal with San Francisco, with the opt-out giving him a chance for a quick re-entry into free agency next offseason.  He’ll bank $20MM in salary from the Giants before making that decision, and a more consistent 2024 season will likely position Chapman for a more lucrative long-term deal (and he won’t be attached to qualifying-offer compensation).  While simply signing that extension with the Blue Jays would’ve erased any of this future uncertainty, Chapman seems willing to bet on himself in having a better platform year.

From Toronto’s perspective, it isn’t known if the Jays (or any other teams) had also floated this type of player option-heavy shorter-term deal to Chapman at any point.  If the Blue Jays were indeed out of Chapman, Mitchell wonders if payroll constraints might have been a factor, as the Jays are on pace for their second straight year with a club-record payroll, as well as a second year over luxury tax overage.  RosterResource estimates Toronto’s tax number at around $248.6MM, and re-signing Chapman to an $18MM average annual value would’ve put Toronto well over the second tier ($257MM) of luxury tax penalization, and inching closer to the third tier that begins at $277MM.

It could be that the Jays are satisfied enough with Kiner-Falefa, Turner, and the in-house infield options that they were comfortable moving on from Chapman even at a reduced price tag.  Or, perhaps the Jays did make Chapman a similar offer to the Giants’ contract, but Chapman simply preferred to return to the Bay Area and re-unite with Bob Melvin, his old manager from his days with the Athletics.

Turning to some news from the Blue Jays’ spring camp in Dunedin, manager John Schneider told reporters (including MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson) that Alek Manoah won’t throw for a few days after feeling some soreness in his right shoulder during a bullpen session.  An MRI didn’t reveal any structural damage, so Manoah will be re-evaluated in a few days’ time.  According to Schneider, Manoah said his shoulder felt “a bit cranky, so we wanted to be extra careful at this point.”

While there isn’t any indication that the injury is anything more than basic soreness, the shoulder issue adds to Manoah’s status as the biggest question mark on the Blue Jays roster.  After seemingly breaking out as a frontline pitcher in 2021-22, Manoah struggled badly in 2023, posting a 5.87 ERA in 87 1/3 big league innings.  Manoah spent the offseason under a changed nutrition and training plan, but his first spring outing wasn’t promising, as he allowed four runs on three hits and three hit batters over 1 2/3 innings last Tuesday.

Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, and Yusei Kikuchi are Toronto’s top four starters, with Manoah somewhat tentatively penciled into the fifth spot.  Bowden Francis seems like the top candidate on the depth chart should any holes open in the rotation, with Schneider also citing Mitch White and non-roster invite Paolo Espino.  Top prospect Ricky Tiedemann is more likely to begin the season at Triple-A, and Tiedemann is only getting back to regular prep work after missing some time with minor inflammation in his calf and hamstring.

Yariel Rodriguez is another new face in camp, as the right-hander is looking to make his MLB debut after signing a five-year, $32MM free agent contract.  Apart from the World Baseball Classic, however, Rodriguez didn’t pitch in 2023, as he spent the year preparing to jump to the majors after spending his first eight pro seasons in the Cuban Serie Nacional and with Nippon Professional Baseball’s Chunichi Dragons.

Given this long layoff, it isn’t surprising that Rodriguez has some rust, and Schneider told Sportsnet and other media yesterday that Rodriguez had some back spasms earlier in camp that delayed his prep work.  The righty is slated to throw a bullpen session today and is “feeling 100 per cent right now,” according to Schneider.  “That was kind of our plan, to take it slow and really get him acclimated.  But he should have enough time to hopefully ramp up to multiple innings when he does get into games,” the manager said.

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