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Casey Mize

Filling Out The Tigers’ Starting Rotation

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UPDATE: Zimmermann has been placed on the 45-day injured list, per MLB.com’s Jason Beck and others (Twitter links). The Tigers aren’t ruling him out for the season yet.

TODAY: Jordan Zimmermann is dealing with the same sort of forearm soreness that sapped him of much of the 2019 season, per Chris McCosky of The Detroit News. If he can stay healthy – a big if – Zimmermann would look to make the most of a short season by proving his arm still plays at the major league level. This will be the final year of the five-year, $110MM pact he signed with the Tigers before the 2016 season.

It’s been a tough couple of years for Zimmermann, who will end his contract without ever making 30 starts in a season after doing so in each of his final four seasons with the Nationals. Despite the precipitous drop in performance, the Tigers were nonetheless turning to Zimmermann as a veteran stopgap in a rotation that will soon be overrun by high-upside prospects like Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning, Franklin Perez, Casey Mize, and Joey Wentz. The rotation is already without Daniel Norris, who has yet to pitch in camp after testing positive for coronavirus.

In the meantime, the Tigers are scrambling to fill out the rotation behind ace Matthew Boyd. Veteran Ivan Nova was brought in to soak up innings (34 starts, 187 innings in 2019), and Spencer Turnbull figures to slot in somewhere in the middle of the rotation after a mostly-strong showing in 2019. Turnbull went 3-17 last season with a 4.61 ERA/3.99 FIP. He’s done a nice job of limiting long balls throughout his two seasons in the majors, and if he can improve upon some control issues that led to an AL-high 16 hit batters and 3.6 BB/9, the Tigers hope Turnbull can level off his 4.76 career ERA and land closer to his 3.88 career FIP mark.

Beyond those three, the Tigers are working on extending the innings of Dario Agrazal, Shao-Ching Chiang, Hector Santiago, and Tyler Alexander to potentially fill out the rotation. Former Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer also has a chance to get some rotation innings, writes McCosky. Fulmer missed all of 2019 after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Of the youngsters in camp, Mize probably has the best shot of cracking the rotation. Under normal circumstances, Mize would be ticketed for Triple-A after 22 starts with a 2.55 ERA in Double-A last year, but without minor league games to further his development, count Mize among the many young stars with a slightly better chance of breaking into the big leagues sometime during the shortened 2020 season. Seven days on the taxi squad will be enough for the Tigers to secure an extra year of service time, notes McCosky, but manager Ron Gardenhire doesn’t plan on making any official decisions until knowing more about the health of Zimmermann and Norris.

Tigers Notes: Torkelson, Draft, Pitching Prospects

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The Tigers will be on the clock with the top pick in the shortened, five-round MLB draft tomorrow night, and although general manager Al Avila unsurprisingly declined to tip his hand in speaking with reporters today, Lynn Henning of the Detroit News writes that Arizona State first baseman Spencer Torkelson is expected to be the pick “unless something bizarre occurs.” Torkelson has long been regarded as a potential, if not likely No. 1 overall pick, having put together an outrageous NCAA career at the plate (.337/.463/.729) while wowing scouts with elite power, a keen eye at the plate and a potentially strong hit tool. Detroit has the second-largest bonus pool in this year’s draft, due largely to the No. 1 overall selection’s $8.415MM slot value.

Even beyond the selections the Tigers will make over the next two days, though, Avila feels the club will be well-positioned to lure in undrafted amateurs, Henning’s colleague Chris McCosky writes. Bonuses for undrafted players are capped at just $20K, so the Tigers won’t be able outbid other teams, but Avila touts the manner in which his organization has embraced “modern technology” as both an advantage for luring undrafted players and preparing for the draft in general. The club’s bolstered analytics department proved vital for draft preparation in the absence of conventional scouting opportunities, Avila says. He adds that the team’s recruiting message and the clear opportunities at the MLB level both work in their favor as well.

This marks the second time in three years that the Tigers have landed the No. 1 overall selection. In 2018, the top pick led Detroit to former Auburn ace Casey Mize, who now joins fellow Tigers farmhands Matt Manning and Tarik Skubal among baseball’s premier pitching prospects. Each had been ticketed for Triple-A, but Avila acknowledges that the likely lack of a minor league season has at least led to discussion about some of the organization’s top pitching prospects beginning to log innings at the MLB level in 2020.

Avila cautions that “no final decision” has been made and call the debate a “work in progress.” The Tigers, of course, still view their rebuild as an ongoing process and likely won’t be inclined to rush any of their prized arms to the Majors. The determination surely depends on what other developmental opportunities present themselves, too. While virtually everyone expects the minor league season to be canceled, there’s been talk of a potentially expanded Arizona Fall League format and the advent of a Florida Fall League, which could give high-end prospects like Mize, Manning and Skubal some much-needed developmental reps against similarly touted minor league hitters.

Central Notes: Twins, Bryant, Mize, Reds

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Let’s check in on a few teams from the game’s Central divisions…

  • The Twins signed injured left-hander Rich Hill in December with the expectation he’d miss a large part of the season. That was before the coronavirus pandemic ran amok, though, and now the Twins might get a full season (if there is one) out of Hill. The 40-year-old, who’s still recovering from the primary revision surgery he underwent in November , told Betsy Helfand of the Pioneer Press, “(I’ve) been able to make the most out of the situation so I’m right where I should be as far as rehab progression-wise, so if we do have a season, I should be ready to go when we kick off something of a spring training.” That means the Twins could get an entire season out of a hurler who has been one of the most effective starters in the majors on a per-inning basis since his out-of-nowhere breakout in 2015. Dating back to then, Hill has combined for a 2.91 ERA with 10.67 K/9 and 2.82 BB/9 in 466 1/3 frames as a member of the Red Sox, Athletics and Dodgers.
  • Cubs third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant is scheduled to become a free agent after the 2021 season. In theory, a shortened or canceled 2020 campaign could have a negative effect on his market if he does reach free agency, but agent Scott Boras doesn’t expect it to damage Bryant or any of the other star players who could be available then. “For the players who are the great players — because there’s always only a few great players — I don’t think it’s going to have anywhere near the impact,” Boras told Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago, “because those great players are somebody you would sign for 10 years, and you can defer the cost. You just backload the contracts. You can do things with long-term contracts; you could wait for better times but still get the player for today.”
  • Righty Casey Mize, the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft, may be the best prospect in the Detroit organization. But with a minor league campaign unlikely to happen, Mize could miss out on further professional seasoning this year. So what’s the solution? Well, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com makes a case that the Tigers should just put him in their rotation this season. Doing so would burn a year of service time, and it’s unlikely Mize would help make the Tigers a playoff-caliber team even in a shortened season, but there’s no denying he is one of the most talented players in the organization. Mize spent the majority of last year in Double-A, where he pitched to a 3.20 ERA with 8.69 K/9 and 2.06 BB/9 in 78 2/3 innings.
  • The Reds will start temporarily furloughing employees – less than 25 percent of them – on June 1, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic tweets. Those individuals will continue to receive benefits while laid off, though.

Quick Hits: Cora, Mize, Minors, Cubs, Nats

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Former Red Sox skipper Alex Cora is suspended for all of the 2020 season as a result of the role he played as the Astros’ bench coach in their 2017 sign-stealing scandal, but it may not be long before he’s in a prominent position again. If the World Baseball Classic takes place in 2021, Cora may be in line to manage or perhaps serve as the GM of the Puerto Rican team. On potentially hiring Cora, president of the Puerto Rican Baseball Federation Jose Quiles told Primera Hora (via Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com): “Of course we would consider it. We already know the work he does. He would be considered as much for general manager as he would be for manager.” Cora was the GM of the 2017 Puerto Rican club that lost just one game – the championship round against the United States.

Here’s more from around the game…

  • High-end Tigers pitching prospect Casey Mize is holding out hope that he’ll make his major league debut in 2020, as Chris McCosky of the Detroit News writes. “It is very frustrating,” Mize told McCosky the coronavirus-forced shutdown. “This is the year I’d hoped to spend a lot of quality time in the big leagues and make my debut. And if there is a season, that is still my goal. That is still something I want to accomplish.” The 22-year-old Mize is keeping in shape by throwing five days a week, including a 40-pitch bullpen session every Wednesday. The No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft, Mize further proved himself as one of the best prospects in baseball last year when he threw 78 2/3 innings of 3.20 ERA ball during his Double-A debut.
  • Contraction of minor league teams seems to be on the way, but the Cubs won’t be among the franchises affected, Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago details. They’re not in position to lose any of their affiliates, which Cubs senior director for player development Matt Dorey told Wittenmyer is “not surprising at all.” The Cubs have been impressed with the work that all of their lower level teams have put in, Dorey explained to Wittenmyer, and they believe those partnerships will continue. “It’s amazing how much investment in resources they’ve made to put our players in the best position to develop,” Dorey said.
  • Changes to the minor league setup may allow the St. Paul Saints of the independent American Association to become an affiliated team, J.J. Cooper of Baseball America reported earlier this week. But the Saints are content in their current position. They’ve “had very little to do with this other than our name being mentioned,’’ executive vice president and general manager Derek Sharrer told Jim Paulsen of the Star Tribune. Sharrer added: “We’re a member of an independent league, and we’re very happy with it. Our heritage, our DNA, is tied into being independent. We’ve had success both on and off the field. We provide a brand of entertainment with a certain renegade independent feel to it, but we’re certainly flattered to be in the discussion.”
  • The Nationals are the latest team that has committed to paying their non-player employees through the end of May, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. They join most of the league’s other clubs in that regard.

Prospect Faceoff: Pearson v. Mize

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There might not be two finer right-handed pitching prospects in baseball than the Blue Jays’ Nate Pearson and the Tigers’ Casey Mize. At least a few notable prospect outlets essentially have the pair neck and neck. Baseball America ranks Pearson as the game’s seventh-best farmhand and has Mize at No. 13. FanGraphs puts Pearson at No. 8, Mize 16th. And MLB.com slightly favors Mize, rating him seventh and Pearson eighth.

Between the two, Pearson seems to be closer to making his major league debut. The 23-year-old, whom the Blue Jays chose 28th in the 2017 draft, dazzled in spring training before the game shut down as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. Pearson fired seven innings of one-run, two-hit ball with 11 strikeouts and three walks, flashing triple-digit heat along the way. Carving up the competition isn’t anything new for the 6-foot-6, 245-pound Pearson, who just last season combined for a 2.30 ERA with 10.5 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 and averaged 97 mph on his fastball in 101 2/3 innings divided among the High-A, Double-A and Triple-A levels. It was the first extensive pro year for Pearson, who tossed a meager 1 2/3 frames in 2018 as he dealt with a back injury and a fractured ulna.

Whether Pearson will be handle a starter’s workload over the long haul is one of the few questions surrounding him. He only averaged a little over four innings per appearance in 2019, and Baseball America writes, “The fact that Pearson throws with so much velocity on every fastball also gives some scouts concerns about whether that’s a durability risk.” If Pearson can hold up, though, he clearly has the potential to evolve into a front-line starter at the MLB level.

Mize, 22, has ace upside in his own right. He was the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft and has lived up to the billing in the minors thus far. Mize doesn’t throw as hard as Pearson (his typical fastball clocked in at 93 mph in ’19), but he was just about untouchable last year in High-A (0.88 ERA over 30 2/3 innings) before earning a promotion to Double-A. Mize continued to wow at the second-highest level of the minors, where he recorded a 3.20 ERA and 8.69 K/9 against 2.06 BB/9 in 15 starts and 78 2/3 frames; however, Mize did miss a few weeks with shoulder inflammation, and the Tigers put an early end to his season to preserve him for future years. He returned during the spring with four innings of three-hit, two-run pitching, notching six strikeouts and a pair of walks.

If health doesn’t fail either of these hurlers in the coming seasons, baseball fans could be treated to another couple of electrifying arms. Which of the two would you take as a building block? (Poll link for app users)

Tigers Shut Down Top Prospect Casey Mize

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The Tigers are shutting down former first-overall selection and top pitching prospect Casey Mize, per Jason Beck of MLB.com. While he’s out of commission, he’ll remain with the Double-A Erie Seawolves before reporting to instructional league in mid-September.

As Beck notes, no one injury motivated the Tigers’ decision; rather the organization would prefer to take a cautious approach with its top minor-leaguer, who is playing in just his first professional season. While he did make a stint on the injured list with shoulder inflammation earlier this season, today’s decision is unrelated. Indeed, this looks to be in hopes of preventing injury, rather than reacting to one.

Mize finishes his first full professional season with 109 2/3 innings under his belt between High-A Lakeland and Double-A Erie. After breezing through the low minors and earning himself a promotion to Double-A—where he threw a no-hitter in his first game—Mize has encountered some difficulty of late, possibly as a consequence of a building workload. While the Tigers weren’t restricting their crown jewel to a definitive innings limit, Beck notes that Tigers officials felt that, in recent viewings, Mize wasn’t as sharp as he had been throughout the year, leading them to shut the righty down for the final two weeks of the minor-league season.

Last season, in his draft year, Mize accumulated nearly 130 innings pitched between his time at Auburn University and a partial season in the low minors.

In his first full season as a professional, Mize made 21 starts, going 8-3 with a 2.55 ERA across two levels of the minors. He struck out 106 batters compared to just 23 walks, good for for a 4.6 K:BB ratio.

The 2018 first overall pick is regarded by many to be the top pitching prospect in all of baseball, including MLB Pipeline, which regards Mize as the second-ranked overall prospect. Already a relatively polished product, it seems like a solid bet that Mize could be pitching in Comerica Park at this time next year.

AL Injury Notes: Luzardo, Stroman, Twins, Mize

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There’s now a rough timeline for Athletics southpaw Jesus Luzardo, who was agonizingly close to a full return from a shoulder injury — and his first taste of the majors — when he suffered a lat strain days ago. Fortunately, the hyped 21-year-old could be ready to begin a new rehab assignment within four or five weeks. That’s about as quick a potential bounce back as might have been hoped for a player who’ll assuredly be handled with extra care. It seems there’s still a reasonable shot of Luzardo being a late-season MLB option, though the A’s will not be able to assume that they’ll get a shot in the arm from the top prospect.

Here’s more from the American League:

  • Blue Jays right-hander Marcus Stroman will not take the ball again before the All-Star break, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet tweets. Stroman hasn’t pitched since he exited a June 29 start with a left pectoral cramp, though the injury may not be severe enough to prevent him from participating in the All-Star Game, according to Nicholson-Smith. Regardless, the team’s hope is he’ll start its first game after the break. The fact that Stroman’s one of the game’s most obvious trade candidates makes his health all the more crucial with the July 31 deadline coming up.
  • There was some good news and bad news today on the injury front for the Twins, as Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com reports (Twitter links). Outfielder Eddie Rosario, on the IL with a sprained ankle since June 28, is making progress and should return shortly after the All-Star break, manager Rocco Baldelli suggested. Meanwhile, the left oblique strain that forced fan favorite and utilityman Willians Astudillo to the IL on June 27 is “significant,” per Baldelli. It could keep Astudillo out “for the foreseeable future,” Park writes.
  • Tigers prospect Casey Mize has resumed throwing after a recent injury scare, GM Al Avila told reporters including Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (via Twitter). That’s not of immediate consequence for the Detroit club, but is certainly excellent news for the team’s long-term outlook. Mize, the 2018 No. 1 overall pick and one of the majors’ elite farmhands, has been on the minor league IL with right shoulder inflammation for three weeks. The 22-year-old laid waste to his competition before then, combining for a 0.92 ERA with 8.7 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 in 78 innings between High-A and Double-A ball.

Health Notes: Mize, Buxton, Astros, D-backs, M’s

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On Friday, one day after Casey Mize left his Double-A start early, the Tigers placed the prized right-hander on the minor league injured list with inflammation in his pitching shoulder. Any shoulder injury for a pitcher obviously isn’t an ideal outcome, but it seems Mize and the Tigers dodged a bullet in this instance. Mize, the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft and one of the majors’ elite prospects, had been utterly dominant in the minors this season before going on the IL. Between the High-A and Double-A levels, the 22-year-old has logged 78 innings of 0.92 ERA pitching with 8.7 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9.

Now for some major league health updates…

  • Center fielder Byron Buxton exited the Twins’ game Friday after taking a pitch off the right wrist from Royals starter Brad Keller. Luckily for Buxton and the Twins, though, he avoided a serious injury, La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune reports. “Byron’s doing fine. Wrist contusion,” said manager Rocco Baldelli, who added it’s “pretty positive news.” The 25-year-old Buxton looks to be on track for a career season, having hit .266/.324/.527 (120 wRC+) with nine home runs, 10 steals and 2.2 fWAR in 227 plate appearances.
  • Speaking of center fielders in fine form, the Astros’ Jake Marisnick departed their game Friday with left knee discomfort, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports. It’s unclear whether the issue will force the Astros to send yet another player to the IL. Marisnick, 28, has paired above-average offense with his usual excellent defense en route to 1.3 fWAR in 156 trips to the plate this year.
  • An MRI on Diamondbacks righty Jon Duplantier’s shoulder confirmed he’s dealing with inflammation, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com tweets. Like Mize, it seems Duplantier has avoided a catastrophic injury. The D-backs placed the 24-year-old on the IL on Wednesday, cutting off an encouraging start to his career. Duplantier has pitched to a 4.32 ERA/3.83 FIP with 8.64 K/9 and 3.24 BB/9 in 25 innings (eight appearances, three starts).
  • The Mariners reinstated shortstop J.P. Crawford from the IL on Friday and placed reliever Brandon Brennan on the IL with a strained right shoulder, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. Crawford had been out since suffering a left ankle sprain May 28. The injury to Brennan continues what has been a shaky season for the 2018 Rule 5 pick from the Rockies. Brennan leads Mariners relievers in innings (34) and has posted 9.26 K/9 with a 55.4 percent groundball rate, but a high walk rate (5.29 BB/9) has helped produce a 5.56 ERA/4.39 FIP.

AL Central Notes: Mize, Indians, Pineda

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Tigers fans are holding their collective breaths as top prospect Casey Mize, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draft, exited last night’s Double-A start with an apparent injury (link via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com). After a third-inning pitch — a fastball that was clocked at 85-86 mph, per Tom Reisenweber of the Erie Times-News (Twitter link) — catcher Kade Scivicque went to the mound and called out the training staff and skipper Mike Rabelo. Mize departed the game at that point. There’s been no formal update on his condition, though Mike Drago of the Reading Eagle tweets that Mize didn’t have his elbow or shoulder wrapped upon leaving the clubhouse and lifted his own bags onto the team’s bus — none of which seem indicative of a major injury. Presumably, the Tigers will have further updates on Mize in the near future.

Here’s more from the division…

  • The Indians are facing an 11-game deficit in the AL Central, and MLB.com’s Jon Morosi suggests that the team won’t act as an aggressive buyer this summer unless it feels there’s a real chance at winning the division. That’s become increasingly clear in recent weeks. As the gap in the AL Central has grown, so too have rumors about the potential availability of coveted pitchers such as Trevor Bauer (controlled through 2020) and Brad Hand (signed through 2021). Morosi notes that Cleveland would be “poised” to listen to offers on that pair, as well as the resurgent Carlos Santana, barring a sudden climb back into the division race. Santana is hitting .286/.406/.530 with 14 homers and more walks (46) than strikeouts (45) through 281 plate appearances in his return to Cleveland. He’s earning $17MM in 2019 and$17.5MM in 2020, though the Mariners are on the hook for $5MM of the salary still owed to him. Santana’s contract also contains a $17.5MM club option, but that’ll be his age-35 campaign.
  • Twins righty Michael Pineda used his recent stint on the injured list to focus on the release point on his slider, he tells Dan Hayes of The Athletic (subscription required). “I’m focusing especially on my release point and finishing my pitches, especially my slider, because this is my pitch for swings and misses,” said Pineda. “I love my slider.” As Hayes observes, Pineda’s rediscovered confidence in the pitch was apparent. He threw just five sliders in his final start prior to landing on the injured list before uncorking 26 sliders in yesterday’s win over the Mariners. Manager Rocco Baldelli and pitching coach Wes Johnson both feel that Pineda looked more impressive yesterday, and Johnson spoke of his satisfaction with the incremental improvements in Pineda’s progression back from 2017 Tommy John surgery and 2018 knee surgery. Notably, the right-hander’s velocity was up a couple miles per hour yesterday as well. A revitalized Pineda would only add another weapon to an already strong Twins club. Pineda has a 5.04 ERA in 69 2/3 innings but yielded just one run in 5 2/3 frames on Thursday.

Tigers’ GM Avila On Cabrera, Prospect Timelines

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The Tigers and Miguel Cabrera received some tough news recently when four different medical opinions agreed that the future Hall of Famer is dealing with “chronic changes” in his knee that will impact the remainder of his career. The immediate ramifications of that diagnosis brought about a position change for Cabrera, who is now relegated to DH duty on a full-time basis and won’t be seeing any action at first base for the foreseeable future. As detailed at the time, Cabrera is owed more than $150MM through the end of the 2023 campaign on a contract that looks to be more onerous than ever before.

General manager Al Avila met with reporters Thursday to discuss the situation (all links to Twitter via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com). “The bad news is that it’s going to get worse as it goes along,” said Avila of Cabrera’s knee condition. “It’s incumbent on him to stay in good shape and it’s incumbent on us to make sure we get him the proper treatment and proper rest.” If both sides are able to hold up their end of the bargain, Avila added, the organization is confident it can “keep [Cabrera] productive on the field through the remainder of his contract.”

That’d be a tall order even for a fully healthy Cabrera (or any player signed into his age-40 season). This version of Cabrera, though, is not only dealing with the recently revealed knee issue but also multiple herniated disks in his back and the perhaps lingering effects of last season’s surgery to repair a torn biceps tendon. The 36-year-old surely enjoyed proving some doubters wrong for a night when he ripped a grand slam just hours after the extent of his knee troubles became public knowledge Tuesday. His overall line of .287/.357/.376, however, illustrates the manner in which his power has yet to materialize in 2019.

Given that substantial commitment to Cabrera for another four years beyond the current campaign, it’ll be all the more imperative for the Tigers organization to produce cost-efficient young talent. To that end, Avila discussed a number of intriguing young prospects Thursday, touching on the timelines of infield prospect Willi Castro and several of the club’s top-ranked pitching prospects.

Castro, a shortstop, is hitting .335/.413/.505 through 232 plate appearances in Triple-A while the Tigers’ entire infield flounders at the plate in the Majors. However, Castro has also committed 10 errors in just 44 starts at short (398 1/3 innings) after making only 15 errors in all of 2018. Scouting reports agree that he’ll eventually be a solid defender at the position, but it seems that consistency has eluded him. For a player who just turned 22, that’s not necessarily a shock. It’s worth wondering whether he’ll get a look later this month, as we’re right around the period of time at which teams can begin promoting players without worrying about Super Two status.

As for the pitchers, Avila suggested that although right-handers Beau Burrows and Kyle Funkhouser have struggled, if they can return to “doing what they’re capable of doing,” they’ll likely get a look in the Majors later in the 2019 season. Tigers fans, though, are surely more interested in getting a look at last year’s No. 1 overall draft pick, Casey Mize. The former Auburn standout is among the game’s top 10 pitching prospects and has decimated minor league lineups in 2019, pitching to a comical 0.83 ERA with a 65-to-10 K/BB in 70 2/3 innings between Class-A Advanced and Double-A.

However, Avila wasn’t shy about the fact that promoting Mize in the near future isn’t all that likely. While the GM didn’t expressly rule out a promotion at some point in 2019, he plainly stated that there’s “no purpose” in promoting Mize to the Majors right now, citing a wariness of undoing some of the progress he’s made thus far. Perhaps if the Tigers were postseason contenders with a pressing rotation need, there’d be more urgency, but Avila was candid in his assessment of his big league roster as well. “Quite frankly it’s not going to make us into playoff contenders this year,” he said of a near-term promotion for Mize.

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