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Requested Salary Figures For 22 Players Who Didn’t Reach Agreements By Arbitration-Filing Deadline

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Today was the deadline for teams and players eligible for arbitration to exchange salary figures for the 2024 season ahead of possible arbitration hearings. And, as usual, the vast majority of eligible players worked out deals for 2024 (and, in some cases, beyond) before the deadline this afternoon. While these agreements are all listed in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker, unfinished business remains around the league. 22 players have not yet settled on a salary for the 2024 and are therefore at risk of having their salaries determined by an arbiter. That number is down considerably from last season, when 33 players exchanged figures. Of note, this list does not include Brewers right-hander Devin Williams. While the sides exchanged figures earlier this evening, they managed to avoid arbitration after the deadline had passed.

This year, arbitration hearings will begin on January 29th and run through February 16th, two days after pitchers and catchers are due to report for Spring Training. While there’s nothing stopping teams and players from settling to avoid arbitration between now and their hearing, the majority of clubs employ a “file and trial” approach to arbitration hearings, stopping negotiations prior to the formal exchange of figures in order to put additional pressure on players to agree to a deal early. While this approach generally puts a moratorium on discussion of one-year deals, teams are typically still willing to discuss multi-year pacts beyond today’s deadline.

Below are the 22 players who have yet to reach an agreement regarding their 2024 salaries, as well as the players’ requested salaries and the counteroffers issued by clubs. The league tends to pay close attention to arbitration salaries because outliers can serve as precedent going forward, raising the bar both for individual players and players as a whole in the future. That reality incentivizes teams to strictly stick to a “file and trial” approach in arbitration and risk a tense hearing between club and player rather than bridge even fairly minimal gaps between club and player salary figures.

[RELATED: Arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz]

14 of the league’s 30 clubs have at least one case that has yet to be settled. The Orioles have the most cases that have yet to be settled, with five players on track for a hearing against the club. That being said, it’s worth noting that Baltimore has a massive, 17-player class of arbitration-eligible players, so it’s hardly a surprise that they wound up exchanging figures with an elevated number of players. Toronto first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. submitted the highest salary figure among all players headed for a hearing at $19.9MM, while the Rangers and outfielder Adolis Garcia narrowly top Guerrero and the Blue Jays for the largest gap between figures, with $1.9MM separating Garcia’s request of $6.9MM from the Rangers’ $5MM counteroffer.

The total list, which will be updated as settlements are reached and the results of hearings are made available…

Tigers Notes: Rodriguez, Mize, Maton, Baddoo

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The Tigers face the potential loss of Eduardo Rodriguez, who officially opted out of his contract on Saturday. The move was entirely unsurprising with the left-hander in good position to land a much better deal than the three years and $49MM that remained.

MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweeted shortly before Rodriguez opted out that his camp had continued discussions with the Tigers about potentially reworking his contract. At this week’s GM Meetings, Detroit president of baseball operations Scott Harris confirmed that report but seemed to downplay the chance of re-signing Rodriguez now that he has reached free agency.

The Tigers’ front office leader told reporters the club’s valuation of the pitcher is “locked in” after two seasons in the Motor City (relayed by Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press). Asked whether the team would stay in contact with Rodriguez’s camp, Harris referenced rules prohibiting him from commenting on specific free agents before adding he “can wish him the best of luck in free agency.”

Should Rodriguez sign elsewhere, it stands to reason the Tigers would bring in a starter from outside the organization. Tarik Skubal looked like a top-flight starter when he returned from flexor surgery, but the rest of the rotation has a relatively brief track record at the MLB level. Reese Olson and Sawyer Gipson-Long showed promise as rookies. Matt Manning pitched to a 3.58 ERA but was limited to 15 starts by separate foot fractures. Former first overall pick Casey Mize missed the entire 2023 season recovering from June ’22 Tommy John surgery.

Detroit announced this evening that Mize has been throwing bullpen sessions without issue and is expected to have a normal offseason. The same can’t be said for infielder Nick Maton, who recently underwent an arthroscopic procedure to address a left knee problem. The Tigers haven’t indicated whether the issue could linger into Spring Training, noting only that Maton is currently in post-operation rehab. Acquired from the Phillies in last offseason’s Gregory Soto deal, the left-handed hitter ran a .173/.288/.305 line over 93 games during his first season as a Tiger.

In one other piece of roster news, Harris addressed the future of corner outfielder Akil Baddoo. The former Rule 5 draftee seemed a potential non-tender candidate, particularly after the club brought in Mark Canha to join Riley Greene and Parker Meadows in the outfield mix. Harris implied that Baddoo would be tendered a contract, telling the media (including Chris McCosky of the Detroit News) that the outfielder “still very much fits in” their plans. Baddoo, who hit .218/.310/.372 this past season, is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $1.7MM salary as a Super Two qualifier.

Tigers Exercise Club Options On Carson Kelly, Mark Canha; Designate Tyler Alexander For Assignment

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The Tigers announced a flurry of roster moves this afternoon. Chief among those was the team’s decision to exercise their 2024 club options on catcher Carson Kelly and outfielder Mark Canha. In addition, the club designated left-hander Tyler Alexander for assignment, assigned left-hander Andrew Vasquez and right-hander Trey Wingenter outright to Triple-A, and selected the contract of right-hander Keider Montero. There had been no prior indication that Vasquez or Wingenter had been on waivers, but each of them now figures to have the opportunity to become a minor league free agent.

In addition, the Tigers activated Alexander, outfielders Austin Meadows and Riley Greene, as well as right-handers Casey Mize and Freddy Pacheco from the 60-day IL.

It comes as no surprise that the Tigers exercised their $11.5MM option for Canha after they dealt for the veteran outfielder on Saturday. Given the $2MM buyout on his contract, it wouldn’t have made any sense for Detroit to trade for Canha (and give up 25-year-old righty Blake Holub) only to part ways with him two days later. He figures to play an important role in the team’s offense next season, presumably splitting his time between the corner outfield and DH.

As for Kelly, the Tigers were expected to pick up his $3.5MM option for 2024. At his end-of-season press conference, president of baseball operations Scott Harris said the team was seriously considering keeping the backstop in the fold. The team already has a starting catcher in place, 28-year-old Jake Rogers, so Kelly can serve as a capable defensive backup, with the potential to be a little bit more – the former top prospect is only two years removed from an above-average season at the plate. For $3.5MM, the Tigers weren’t going to find much more than that.

Alexander, 29, made 25 appearances for the Tigers in 2023, his first full season as a reliever. He pitched to a 4.50 ERA and a career-best 3.48 SIERA in 44 innings of work. Unfortunately, his solid season came to an early end when he landed on the IL with a shoulder strain in July.

Vasquez spent the first four months of the season with the Phillies, with whom he posted an impressive 2.27 ERA but less promising underlying numbers. He was designated for assignment shortly after the trade deadline, and the Tigers scooped him up. Unfortunately, he couldn’t find the same success in Detroit. Across 12 appearances, he gave up nine runs (eight earned) in just 8 2/3 innings of work. He missed most of September with a calf injury, although he made two scoreless appearances at the end of the month.

After spending most of the first half on the injured list, Wingenter made 17 appearances for the Tigers in 2023, his first big league action since 2019. His 5.82 ERA was troublesome, but his underlying metrics were actually quite encouraging: a 3.43 SIERA, a 3.87 xERA, and a much-improved 3.14 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Then again, he produced those numbers in mostly low-leverage spots, and apparently, the Tigers weren’t impressed enough with what they saw to keep Wingenter on the 40-man roster.

After seven years in Detroit’s minor league system, Montero would have been eligible to elect minor league free agency had the Tigers not added him to the 40-man roster this afternoon. He is coming off a difficult couple of months at Triple-A, but he is still just 23 years old, and evidently, the Tigers like what they have seen enough to keep him around. According to MLB Pipeline, he is the No. 26 prospect in the Tigers system.

Pitching Notes: Red Sox, Kahnle, Lorenzen

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The Red Sox are on the verge of a boost to their rotation, with starters Brayan Bello and Garrett Whitlock set to return. Whitlock will be the first, with Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe reporting that Whitlock will pitch Tuesday against the Rays.

Whitlock has been taking a little extra time to prepare for the season following hip surgery in September. While he’s excelled mostly as a reliever for Boston, the team came into the year planning to use him as a starter and it appears they’re not deviating from that. Whitlock owns a 2.24 ERA in 112 2/3 relief innings, and a 4.15 ERA in nine starts and 39 innings over his two big league seasons.

It’s unclear yet who will drop out of the rotation, although Kutter Crawford’s spot would appear most at risk. Boston doesn’t get a day off until April 27, so the boost to their struggling rotation is timely. Whitlock’s return could be closely followed by that of Bello. The youngster is scheduled to make another rehab start on Tuesday, with the hope being he’ll go for six innings. As Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe notes, manager Alex Cora wouldn’t commit to him coming of the IL after that, but if he goes that sort of length without any issues then a return can’t be far away.

Bello, 23, worked to a 4.71 ERA over 57 1/3 innings last year. It was a promising rookie season for Bello, and underlying numbers such as FIP (2.94) looked a lot more favorably on his work. Bello had been dealing with forearm tightness during spring training, forcing his delayed start to the season. Like Whitlock, he figures to be a key part of any success Boston’s rotation might have this year.

Here’s some more from around the game:

  • Yankees reliever Tommy Kahnle was transferred to the 60-day IL today, meaning the earliest he’ll return will be the end of May. That’s a significant blow for a banged up Yankees bullpen that also lost Jonathan Loaisiga to the IL today. Per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com, manager Aaron Boone did not consider Kahnle to have suffered a setback as a reason for the move to the 60-day, but instead that they just anticipated he’d have a longer buildup. Boone added that he could see Kahnle appearing in minor league rehab games in early May. Kahnle re-joined the Yankees this winter on a two-year, $11.5MM deal.
  • The Tiger announced (Twitter) a series of medical updates, including that right-hander Michael Lorenzen is scheduled to make a rehab start Triple-A today. Lorenzen did indeed make that start, going 2 1/3 innings (56 pitches) and giving up four earned runs. Lorenzen is returning from a left groin strain. The team also announced that right-hander Beau Brieske continues to receive further medical evaluation on his right upper arm discomfort. Meanwhile, starter Casey Mize is playing catch three times a week and Tarik Skubal is playing catch six times weekly.

Tigers Claim Tyler Holton, Place Casey Mize On 60-Day Injured List

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The Tigers announced Friday that they’ve claimed lefty Tyler Holton off waivers from the Diamondbacks, who’d designated him for assignment earlier in the week. In order to open a spot on the 40-man roster, Detroit transferred right-hander Casey Mize to the 60-day injured list. Mize underwent Tommy John surgery and back surgery last year and wasn’t expected to be ready within the season’s first two months anyhow, so his eventual placement on the 60-day IL was a foregone conclusion.

The 26-year-old Holton made his MLB debut in 2022, pitching nine innings and allowing three runs on right hits and a pair of walks with six strikeouts during that brief cup of coffee. The rest of his season was spent in Triple-A Reno, where he logged a 4.43 ERA in 44 2/3 innings, fanning 23.5% of his opponents against a 9.3% walk rate.

It was a rebound effort for Holton, who’d previously limped to a 6.72 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A in 2021. Even amid those struggles, he notched a strong 26.5% strikeout rate, however, and his 6.5% walk rate was similarly encouraging. Solid strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates have been the norm for Holton since being selected in the ninth round of the 2018 draft. He doesn’t throw hard and has never ranked among the D-backs’ best prospects, but his track record of performance, MLB readiness and pair of remaining minor league option years all surely held appeal to the Tigers.

Prior to claiming Holton, the only left-handed bullpen option on the 40-man roster had been Tyler Alexander (assuming the club wants to keep Joey Wentz in a starting role). Non-roster veterans Chasen Shreve, Jace Fry and Miguel Del Pozo will all be in camp competing for a job as well. Holton will have a chance to land an Opening Day roster spot, though the Tigers can freely option him to Triple-A Toledo if one of the non-roster options outperforms him (or, if the team simply opts to carry one left-hander to begin the season). Wherever he starts the year, Holton figures to log some action in the big league bullpen in 2023, given the lack of certainty that permeates the Detroit bullpen following offseason trades of Gregory Soto and Joe Jimenez.

As for Mize, he underwent Tommy John surgery last June, so he’s unlikely to be an option until the season’s second half. The Tigers only recently revealed that Mize also underwent back surgery around that same time, however. Mize told reporters about the procedure earlier this week, explaining that his back issues have been slowly escalating over the past several years. Knowing he’d be off the mound for a year-plus anyhow, he opted for surgery aimed at alleviating the issue so he could truly be at full strength once he returns to the mound later this year.

Casey Mize Underwent Back Surgery Last Year

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Tigers right-hander Casey Mize underwent Tommy John surgery in June of last year and was already set to miss at least part of the upcoming season. However, there’s an extra layer of complication to his recovery, as the team informed reporters today that he also underwent back surgery around the same time, listing his two issues as a right elbow sprain and a lumbar strain.

“I’ve been dealing with the issue for a long time,” Mize told reporters, including Jason Beck of MLB.com. “I would say years. It’s just something that’s gradually gotten worse over time.” He then goes on to detail that, since he was going to be out for an extended stretch with the Tommy John anyway, the idea was to get both issues dealt with at the same time. It seems the back issue delayed his rehab process slightly, but Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports that the rehab is now primarily focused on his arm. He’ll start playing catch this week.

It’s unclear exactly how this will impact his 2023 season, but he was going to be challenged to return in any case. The recovery process from Tommy John generally takes 14 months or longer. Since Mize first went under the knife in June of last year, he was likely looking at a brief late-season return even in a best-case scenario. It’s possible that the back issue will push his return even farther down the road, though it seems that’s all still up in the air.

“It’s tough to make decisions on February 15 about what July 1 is going to look like, about what October 1 is going to look like, about the following spring training,” Mize said, per Petzold. “We have a set schedule and program that we’d like to follow, but this thing is fluid. There are going to be changes throughout it.”

The first overall pick of the 2018 draft, Mize has shown some promise in his big league career so far but also some struggles. He debuted in 2020 with seven starts and a 6.99 ERA. He seemed to take a step forward in 2021 by posting a 3.71 ERA over 30 starts, his first full season in the bigs. His 6.7% walk rate and 48.1% ground ball rate were both strong, but his 19.3% strikeout rate was a few ticks below league average. It’s possible that a .254 batting average on balls in play and 79.5% strand rate were helping his ERA down a bit, as he had a 4.71 FIP and 4.45 SIERA on the year. In 2022, he was only able to make a pair of starts before landing on the shelf.

Ideally, taking care of both ailments and getting Mize to 100% health will allow him to provide better results once he’s back on the mound, be that later this year or in 2024. For the Tigers, they were surely aware of this situation, though it wasn’t publicly known until today. With both Mize and Tarik Skubal both having unclear timelines this year, the club signed Matthew Boyd and Michael Lorenzen to join Eduardo Rodriguez, Matt Manning and Spencer Turnbull in the rotation. Mize will spend most or all of this season on the injured list, accruing service time in the process. He’ll cross the three-year mark this year and qualify for arbitration in the upcoming offseason, slated to become a free agent after 2026.

Players That Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins

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Just about every baseball team has a full 40-man roster now, with the Astros the only team with an open spot at the moment. That means that just about every transaction, be it a free agent signing or a waiver claim, requires a corresponding move.

However, that could soon change as the injured list is coming back soon. There’s no IL from the end of a season until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training for the next campaign, which they will do next week. That means some clubs could potentially gain a bit of extra roster flexibility at that time, since players on the 60-day IL don’t count against a team’s roster total. However, it’s worth pointing out that the “60 days” don’t start until Opening Day, which is March 30 this year. That means, though a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL next week, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later.

With some notable free agents still unsigned like Jurickson Profar, Andrew Chafin, Michael Wacha, Elvis Andrus and many others, it’s possible that teams interested in their services might try to hold off on getting a deal done until next week. Or perhaps clubs that have players they would like to sneak through waivers will try to do so now, before rival clubs gain that extra roster flexibility with the IL opening up. Then again, some clubs will need to keep in mind non-roster players they are planning to promote by Opening Day and might hold off on making a move until that time.

Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon, sorted by division.

AL East

Hyun Jin Ryu/Chad Green

The Blue Jays have a pair of pitchers on their 40-man roster who are returning from Tommy John surgery. They should be on a similar timeline, as they each underwent the procedure in June of last year, though Green will most likely return first since relievers generally require less time to build up arm strength compared to starters. Regardless, the recovery time period for TJS is about 12-18 months, meaning neither pitcher is likely to return until midseason at the earliest. Ryu recently said he was targeting a July return.

Trevor Story

The Red Sox shortstop recently underwent an internal brace procedure on his throwing elbow, a similar operation to Tommy John. Though he’s confident he’ll return at some point, he’s slated to miss most of the upcoming season and is certainly headed for the injured list.

John Means

The Orioles lefty underwent Tommy John surgery in late of April of 2022. With the 12-18 month recovery window for TJS, he could theoretically return in the first couple of months of the season, so the O’s may not want to transfer him to the injured list until they have some clarity about his timeline.

Scott Effross/Luis Gil/Frankie Montas

Effross is a lock for the Yankees’ injured list as he underwent Tommy John in October and will likely miss the entire 2023 campaign. Gil had the same surgery but in May, which means he’ll likely be out until midseason. The situation with Montas is a bit less clear, as he’s dealing with shoulder inflammation that is expected to keep him out for the first month of the season. Unless he suffers some sort of setback, he probably won’t be placed on the 60-day IL right away.

Shane Baz/Andrew Kittredge

The Rays have a couple of hurlers bound for the IL as Baz underwent Tommy John in September while Kittredge had the same surgery in June. They’re both going to miss the first half of the year, with Baz potentially missing the entire season.

AL Central

Casey Mize/Tarik Skubal

Mize underwent Tommy John surgery in June and should be placed on the Tigers’ IL at some point. Skubal’s case is a bit less certain after he underwent flexor tendon surgery in August. The club hasn’t provided a timeline for his recovery but some recent comparables can give us some idea. Danny Duffy underwent the procedure in October of 2021 and was hoping to return by June of 2022, though a setback prevented him from pitching at all on the year. Matthew Boyd went under the knife for flexor tendon surgery in September of 2021 and didn’t return to a big league mound until September of 2022.

Garrett Crochet/Liam Hendriks

Crochet of the White Sox underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year but was already stretched out to throwing from 120 feet in November. Whether he’s able to return in the early parts of 2023 or not will depend on his continued progression in that recovery process. In a less conventional situation, Liam Hendriks announced last month that he’s beginning treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. It’s unknown how long his treatment will take but general manager Rick Hahn said they don’t expect updates “prior to Opening Day at the very earliest.”

Chris Paddack/Royce Lewis

Paddack was recently extended by the Twins though he underwent Tommy John in May of last year and likely won’t be ready to return until the middle of the upcoming campaign. Lewis tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year, the second year in a row that he suffered that unfortunate injury. At the time, his recovery timeline was estimated at 12 months, which likely puts him on the shelf until midseason as well.

AL West

Brett Martin

It was reported last month that the Rangers lefty will require shoulder surgery. It was said that the timeline will become more clear in the aftermath of the procedure but he’s likely to miss the entirety of the upcoming season.

NL East

Bryce Harper

The Phillies superstar underwent Tommy John surgery in November and the club has announced they expect him to be out of action until around the All-Star break in July.

Huascar Ynoa/Tyler Matzek

Both these Braves pitchers underwent Tommy John last year, with Ynoa going under the knife in September and Matzek in October. That makes them both long shots for appearing at all this year, but especially not in the first half.

Max Meyer/Anthony Bender/Sixto Sanchez

The Marlins have a couple of arms that will certainly miss time this year and one more that’s a wild card. Meyer and Bender both underwent Tommy John in August and will miss most of the upcoming campaign. Sanchez underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery in October with the club announcing at that time they expected him back by spring. It was reported last month that Sanchez is already throwing bullpens, which perhaps points against an IL stint. However, after the shoulder issues completely wiped out his 2021 and 2022 seasons, it’s hard to know how much to rely on his health going forward.

Danny Mendick

The Mets signed Mendick after he was non-tendered by the White Sox. The infielder/outfielder tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year and missed the second half of the season. There haven’t been any updates on his status recently, but further clarity will likely come when camp gets rolling.

Tanner Rainey/Stephen Strasburg

The Nationals have one fairly straightforward case in Tanner Rainey, who underwent Tommy John in August and will likely miss most of the upcoming season. What’s less clear is the situation surrounding Strasburg, who’s hardly pitched at all over the past three years due to thoracic outlet syndrome and various issues seemingly related to that. He made one appearance in the big leagues last year, pitching 4 2/3 in one start in June but went on the IL right after and never returned. He spoke about the issue in September, saying he hadn’t thrown in months and that he is “not really sure what the future holds.”

NL Central

Ethan Roberts/Codi Heuer/Kyle Hendricks

Roberts underwent Tommy John in June and likely won’t be available for the Cubs until midseason. Heuer had TJS in March but the latest reporting suggests he won’t return until June or July. The status of Hendricks is less clear, with the righty trying to recover from a capsular tear in his shoulder. The club is hoping to have him back by Opening Day but also said they won’t rush him. He recently said that he’s expecting to be on a mound by March 1.

Vladimir Gutierrez/Tejay Antone

Gutierrez, a Reds righty, underwent Tommy John in July and should miss the first few months of the upcoming season at least. Antone was rehabbing from a Tommy John of his own when he suffered a flexor strain in his forearm. He announced today he’s received a platelet-rich plasma injection to treat the issue and suggested he might miss the first half of the season.

Max Kranick

The Pirates right-hander required Tommy John in June and will miss the first half of the upcoming campaign.

NL West

Antonio Senzatela/Tyler Kinley

The Rockies have a couple of murky situations on their hands with these hurlers. Senzatela tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee last year and required surgery in August. The timeline at that point was given at 6-8 months, which would place his return somewhere in the February-April window. Whether he’ll require a lengthy IL stint will depend on if his recovery is still on that track. Kinley was diagnosed with an elbow strain and a flexor tear in his forearm in June of last year. He underwent surgery in July with the club announcing they expected him to miss one calendar year, which should prevent him from pitching early in the campaign.

Walker Buehler/Blake Treinen/J.P. Feyereisen

The Dodgers have a trio of pitchers that are likely to miss most or perhaps all of the upcoming season. Buehler required Tommy John in August and could potentially return very late in the year. Treinen underwent shoulder surgery in November with an estimated recovery time of 10 months. Feyereisen underwent shoulder surgery in December and won’t be able to begin throwing until four months after that procedure, or around April. His eventual return to game shape will depend on how long it takes him to progress from simply throwing to getting up to full game speed.

Luke Jackson

The Giants signed the right-hander in free agency, despite Jackson undergoing Tommy John in April. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters last month that there was a chance Jackson begins the year on the 60-day IL, though that doesn’t seem to indicate any kind of setback. “He’s doing great in his rehab, so we’re going to wait and see how he’s doing in spring training,” Zaidi said.

Post-Tommy John Players That Could Impact 2023

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News items about Tommy John surgeries are fairly commonplace in baseball circles, but there’s no doubting it’s a significant event for the impacted player. It usually takes over a year to return to form, with a multi-stage rehabilitation process required to regain functionality.

Once a player gets back into game shape, there’s no guarantee the results will be the same. Justin Verlander looked just as good as ever in 2022, but Mike Clevinger didn’t get his velocity all the way back and saw his strikeout rate dip. He could still take another step forward in 2023 now that he’s another year removed from the procedure, but it goes to show that there are no guarantees about what happens in the aftermath.

Here are some players who went under the knife over the past year or so and who will be looking for good progress in 2023, both for their teams and themselves. Huge shoutout to the Tommy John Surgery list for having these details and so much more.

Forrest Whitley, Astros — Surgery Date: March 2021

Whitley, 25, was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but his progress has been stalled by various factors. He missed 50 games in 2018 due to a drug suspension, and injuries have hampered him in the years since. He returned from his layoff late last year and tossed 40 innings in the minors but walked 14.5% of batters faced. The Astros already have a great rotation without him, but if Whitley could get back to the form that made him such a hyped prospect, they would be even more loaded.

Kirby Yates, Braves — March 2021

Yates, 36 in March, was one of the best relievers in the league in 2018 and 2019, arguably the best. He posted a 1.67 ERA over 125 games, striking out 38.7% of batters faced, walking just 6.1% of them and getting grounders on 45.2% of balls in play. Since then, however, he’s thrown just 11 1/3 innings. Seven of those came late in the 2022  season, though Yates gave up four runs on six hits and five walks in seven innings. This will be his first full season back. The Braves have a strong bullpen even if Yates can’t get back to peak form, but they’ll likely be in a tight division race and that kind of elite stuff would provide a nice boost.

José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández, Rangers — March and April 2021, respectively

Leclerc, 29, seemed to be establishing himself as an excellent reliever in 2018. He got into 59 games for the Rangers and posted a 1.56 ERA, getting 12 saves and 15 holds in the process. A .211 BABIP surely helped, but there was a lot to like. He took a step back in 2019 with a 4.33 ERA and then missed most of the following two years. Leclerc returned in June of last year and struggled at first before posting a 2.01 ERA from July onwards. Hernández had a 2.90 ERA in 2020 before missing the 2021 campaign. He returned last year and posted a 2.97 ERA, but with concerning peripherals. His 6.4% walk rate from the former campaign jumped to 13% while his strikeout rate fell from 24.8% to 20.6%. On the more encouraging side, his ground ball rate went from 45.7% to 62.4%. The Rangers totally overhauled their rotation without doing much to the bullpen, but they could potentially get a boost from within if Leclerc and/or Hernández look good this year.

Adrián Morejón, Padres — April 2021

Once considered a top pitching prospect, Morejón, 24 next month, has been slowed by various injuries. He returned in 2022 but worked only in relief, tossing 34 innings in the majors and 13 1/3 in the minors. The Padres have some uncertainty in the back of their rotation that Morejón could help with if he stays healthy, but he’ll likely have workload concerns after so much missed time.

James Paxton, Red Sox — April 2021

Paxton, 34, had a great four-year run with the Mariners and Yankees from 2016 to 2019. However, he’s hardly pitched over the last three years due to various arm issues. He got back on the mound last summer while attempting to come back from Tommy John but then suffered a lat tear that halted his comeback effort. The Red Sox then had the choice to trigger a two-year option on the lefty worth $26MM, which they turned down based on his uncertain health outlook. He then had a $4MM player option that he triggered and will be with the Sox for 2023. He and Chris Sale would have made for a formidable one-two punch at the top of a rotation a few years ago, but neither has been healthy and effective for quite some time. Their status this year figures to have a huge impact on the fortunes of the Sox for the upcoming campaign.

Dustin May, Dodgers — May 2021

May, 25, returned late last year and was able to make six starts for the Dodgers. He posted a 4.50 ERA in that time and struck out 22.8% of batters faced, with both of those numbers paling in comparison to his pre-surgery form. The Dodgers let Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart from their 2022 rotation, while bringing in Noah Syndergaard. The quiet offseason will be easier to accept if May can post results like he did over 2019-2021: 2.93 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 51.6% ground ball rate.

Joey Lucchesi, Mets — June 2021

Lucchesi, 30 in June, made 56 starts for the Padres in 2018 and 2019 with a 4.14 ERA. He didn’t get much of an opportunity in 2020 and was flipped to the Mets as part of the Joe Musgrove trade. He isn’t one of the club’s five best starters right now, but their rotation features four veterans who are 34 or older in Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and José Quintana. Also, Kodai Senga is making the transition from Japan, where starters frequently only pitch once a week. The club will surely need to rely on its depth this year at some point, making Lucchesi a key part of the equation.

Spencer Turnbull, Tigers — July 2021

Turnbull, 30, was seeming to make progress towards being a quality starter for the Tigers. He posted a 4.61 ERA in 2019 but got that down to 3.97 in 2020. He pushed it down even more in 2021, registering a 2.88 ERA over nine starts before getting shut down and requiring surgery. The Tigers seem likely to be without Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal to start the year as those pitchers deal with their own injuries. That could leave a path for Turnbull to get back on track.

Tyler Glasnow, Rays — August 2021

Glasnow, 29, didn’t live up to expectations with the Pirates but made good on his prospect pedigree after getting traded to the Rays. From 2019 to 2021, he had a 2.80 ERA while striking out 35.9% of batters faced and walking just 7.8% of them. Tommy John surgery put him out of action for a while but he was able to return late last year, making two starts in the regular season and one in the postseason. Glasnow has looked like an ace at times but still hasn’t maintained it over an extended stretch, still never reaching 115 innings in a major league season. The Rays have been fairly quiet this winter, but a healthy Glasnow is arguably a bigger upgrade to their roster than any move they could have made.

Tejay Antone, Reds — August 2021

Antone, 29, debuted in 2020 and was excellent out of the Reds’ bullpen. Over that year and 2021, he tossed 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate and 48% ground ball rate. The walks were a little high at 10.8% but he was still able to be incredibly effective regardless. He isn’t slated to reach free agency until after 2025, but the rebuilding Reds might have to consider a deadline deal if Antone is healthy and pitching well this summer.

Garrett Crochet, White Sox — April 2022

Crochet, 24 in June, was selected 11th overall in the 2020 draft and made his MLB debut later that year. Between his five appearances in 2020 and 54 more the following year, he has a 2.54 ERA and 29% strikeout rate. He’ll likely miss at least part of the upcoming campaign but the club is planning on keeping him in a relief role, which could help him return quicker.

Luke Jackson, Giants — April 2022

Jackson, 31, had a huge breakout with the Braves in 2021. He tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, striking out 26.8% of batters faced while getting grounders at a healthy 52.5% clip. He wasn’t as effective in the playoffs but nonetheless was part of the club’s World Series victory that year. He reached free agency and signed with the Giants, who are taking a shot on a return to form, though Jackson might miss the first couple of months of the 2023 season.

John Means, Orioles — April 2022

Means, 30 in April, was one of the few highlights for the Orioles during their leanest rebuilding years. He has a 3.81 ERA in 356 2/3 career innings, keeping his walks down to an excellent 5% rate. The Orioles took a huge step forward last year, graduating many of their top prospects and actually flirting with postseason contention. They’ll be looking to make more progress this year, but the rotation is still lacking in proven options. Getting Means back into the mix would be a big help if some of the younger guys struggle.

Chris Paddack, Twins — May 2022

Paddack, 27, had a great debut with the Padres in 2019, making 26 starts with a 3.33 ERA. His results fell off in the next two seasons, and he dealt with an elbow strain late in the 2021 season, but the Twins still liked him enough to acquire him as part of their return for Taylor Rogers. He was only able to make five starts before landing on the shelf. Their faith doesn’t seem to have wavered, as they recently signed him to a three-year extension. The Twins have a solid rotation on paper, but nearly the entire group landed on the injured list at some point in 2022. Kenta Maeda missed the whole season while rehabbing from an internal brace procedure, a modification of Tommy John surgery. Since injuries were the big story for the Twins in 2022, better health and/or better depth will be important in 2023.

Chad Green, Free Agent — June 2022

Green, 32 in May, spent the past seven seasons pitching for the Yankees. He tossed 383 2/3 innings in that time with a 3.17 ERA, striking out 32.5% of batters faced against a 6.3% walk rate. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John just a few months away from qualifying for free agency. He has yet to sign with a club, but players in this position often sign two-year deals that cover their rehab and give the team an extra year of control. If Green can find himself a deal like that, he could be a wild card down the stretch.

Casey Mize, Tigers — June 2022

Mize, 26 in May, was selected first overall by the Tigers in 2018. He posted a solid 3.71 ERA in 2021, but with disappointing underlying metrics. He only struck out 19.3% of batters faced and had a much higher 4.92 xERA, 4.71 FIP and 4.45 SIERA. After a dreadful 2022 season, the Tigers need to see how Turnbull, Mize, Skubal and Manning look this year before deciding how to proceed for the future.

Hyun Jin Ryu, Blue Jays — June 2022

Ryu, 36 in March, has oscillated between being injured and dominant for much of his career. He signed a four-year deal with the Blue Jays prior to 2020 and posted a 2.69 ERA that year, coming in third in the AL Cy Young voting. His ERA ticked up to 4.37 in 2021, and Ryu struggled even more last year before going under the knife. The Jays have a solid front four in their rotation but uncertainty at the back. Ryu is targeting a July return, and his health at that time could impact how the Jays approach the trade deadline.

Andrew Kittredge, Rays — June 2022

Kittredge, 33 in March, dominated in 2021 by posting a 1.88 ERA over 71 2/3 innings. He struck out 27.3% of batters he faced while walking just 5.3% of them and also got grounders on 53.5% of balls in play. He took a step back last year but made multiple trips to the injured list and likely wasn’t 100%. He’ll surely miss the first several months of the season but could jump into Tampa’s bullpen down the stretch.

Walker Buehler, Dodgers — August 2022

Buehler, 28, has an excellent track record for the Dodgers, having posted a 3.02 ERA in 638 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 27% of opponents while giving out free passes to just 6.3% of them. The Dodgers will have to get by without him for the majority of 2023, though there’s a chance he could be a late addition to the roster if all goes well. His August surgery makes him roughly one year behind Glasnow, who was able to return late in 2022. However, Glasnow’s procedure was August 4th of 2021 while Buehler’s was on the 23rd of last year. Still, if the Dodgers make a deep postseason run, that could give Buehler the runway he needs to make a landing this year.

September 2022 Or Later: Shane Baz, Anthony Gose, Scott Effross, Tyler Matzek, Bryce Harper

These players face longer odds of making an impact since their surgeries were so late in the year. The major exception is Harper, since position players require less recovery time than pitchers. Harper is hoped to be able to return to the Phillies around the All-Star break as a designated hitter, with a chance of returning to the field later in the campaign.

Tigers Won’t Trade Tarik Skubal

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Tigers lefty Tarik Skubal exited last night’s start against the Twins following five shutout innings and just 77 pitches, prompting immediate speculation given his recent appearance on the rumor mill. Instead, the Tigers announced that Skubal was dealing with “arm fatigue.” The lefty downplayed the severity of the issue, telling reporters that he plans to make his next start. That, it seems, will definitively come in a Tigers uniform, as Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports that the organization has decided Skubal will not be moved by today’s 6pm ET deadline. They could potentially listen to offers on him again this winter, however, per Petzold.

It’s not clear whether the Tigers had made up their mind before Skubal’s latest outing or if the decision stems from the fact that other clubs are now surely a bit wary about Skubal’s immediate outlook. A trade always appeared to be a long shot anyhow, as Skubal has four more seasons of club control remaining and has pitched quite well in 2022. Through 112 2/3 innings, the former top prospect has turned in a 3.67 ERA with a 24.7% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate and 46.6% ground-ball rate.

For a Tigers club that lost Casey Mize to Tommy John surgery and has seen Matt Manning battle shoulder troubles this season, trading Skubal would only further cloud the immediate outlook for their rotation. They’d surely have needed multiple MLB-ready pieces with even greater club control that Skubal has, but a team parting with that type of package now seems all but impossible to imagine.

Instead, Tuesday will likely see the Tigers focus on finding deals for members of their quietly solid bullpen. SNY’s Andy Martino tweets that the Mets have been eyeing righty Michael Fulmer and lefty Andrew Chafin, both of whom can become free agents at season’s end (Chafin via a player option).

[Related: Tigers Trade Robbie Grossman to Braves]

Interestingly, however, Petzold suggests that if Chafin remains with the Tigers, he’s likely to exercise that player option due to Detroit’s relative proximity to his family in Ohio. If another club were to acquire Chafin, he could well turn down the option, which leads to a disconnect in perceived value. If the Tigers consider him likely to stay beyond the current season, but interested parties are effectively viewing him as a rental, it may be hard to align on a return that both teams deem fair value.

Elsewhere in the bullpen, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports that opposing clubs have not been willing to put together the type of prospect(s) the Tigers have been seeking for righty Joe Jimenez, who’s under club control through the 2023 season. The 27-year-old righty is finally enjoying the long-awaited breakout for which the organization has hoped, pitching 40 innings of 2.93 ERA ball with a massive 35% strikeout rate against a minuscule 5% walk rate.

Jimenez is averaging a career-high 95.9 mph on his heater, and according to Statcast, he’s among the league leaders in fastball spin rate (93rd percentile), opponents’ chase rate (91st percentile), whiff rate (82nd percentile), expected ERA (92nd percentile) and expected wOBA (92nd percentile). Given that dominance, a remaining year of control and a modest $1.79MM salary, it’s understandable if Detroit sets a lofty asking price.

Casey Mize To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Tigers right-hander Casey Mize will be undergoing Tommy John surgery. Manager A.J. Hinch gave the news to reporters, including Chris McCosky of the Detroit News, who relays that Mize’s ulnar collateral ligament is not torn, but is stretched to such a degree that it no longer has elasticity.

The news obviously comes as a disappointment for both Mize and the team. The first overall selection of the 2018 draft, Mize has long been seen as one of the best prospects in baseball and a key component of the Tigers’ future success. Last year was his first full season in the majors, with Mize throwing 150 1/3 innings with a 3.71 ERA, 19.3% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 48.1% ground ball rate.

Based on the work of Mize and fellow young starters Matt Manning and Tarik Skubal, the club felt it was time to get aggressive and spend some money on talented veterans to supplement their young core. They gave multi-year deals to Javier Baez, Eduardo Rodriguez and Andrew Chafin this offseason, hoping to making the transition from rebuilding to competing.

Unfortunately, just about everything has gone wrong in Detroit this year, with multiple players missing significant time due to injury. The starting rotation has been hit particularly hard, with Mize, Manning and Rodriguez all being held back to various maladies, as well as Tyler Alexander and Michael Pineda.

In the case of Mize, it was hoped that he could take a step forward in his development this year, his age-25 season. Instead, he was only able to make a pair of starts before landing on the injured list back in April. In the days after that IL placement, Mize began a throwing program, with the Tigers seemingly breathing a sigh of relief that a major absence had been avoided. However, over the subsequent months, repeated attempts to begin throwing ultimately led to further discomfort and shutdowns.

Instead of the breakout year many had hoped for, 2022 will go down as a lost season for Mize. 2023 will be a question mark as well, given the usual 12-18 months of recovery that are generally required to recovery from Tommy John surgery. Since Mize enters into salary arbitration in the 2023-24 offseason, his future earnings will certainly be impacted by his lack of a platform over the next two years, though Mize did already get some early-career financial comfort in the form of his $7.5MM draft signing bonus.

In the short term, this will hurt the chances of the Tigers recovering from their miserable start to the season. They went 10-23 over their first 33 games but have gone a much more respectable 13-10 since then. The resulting 23-33 record is still not great, but they’re only six games out of a postseason spot in this year’s expanded playoffs. With so many starters on the shelf, the club has been relying on unproven youngsters such as Alex Faedo, Elvin Rodriguez and Beau Brieske, which will have to continue for the time being.

In the long run, Mize will be following Spencer Turnbull down the Tommy John path, as he also underwent the procedure last year. By the time Mize returns in late 2023 or early 2024, it’s possible that the Tigers can finally have the elite rotation they dreamed of with Mize, Turnbull, Manning, Skubal and Eduardo Rodriguez all healthy, with Faedo, Brieske, Elvin Rodriguez, Joey Wentz and other hurlers working their way into the mix as well, though all of that will have to wait.

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