Cubs Rumors: Rotation Market, Bellinger, Bullpen, Catcher
The Cubs’ focus this offseason has reportedly been on pitching, and while Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports that’s very much still the case, he also throws some cold water on the idea of Chicago making a major strike in free agency. Sharma’s colleague, Patrick Mooney, reported less than three weeks ago that the Cubs planned to “aggressively” pursue starters who could help near the top end of the rotation, but Sharma now writes that the “top tier of the starting pitching market has been ruled out.” That would seemingly remove the Cubs from the running for Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell and Max Fried, at the very least.
It’s the latest signal of a measured offseason approach, even at a time when the Cubs’ division appears ripe for the taking. The Cardinals are scaling back payroll and focusing more on player development in 2025 than on putting a playoff-caliber roster on the field. The Brewers, one year after trading Burnes, now seem likely to lose Willy Adames in free agency — and they could also trade closer Devin Williams. The Pirates and Reds have yet to break out as perennial contenders in the Central. Logically speaking, the deep-pocketed Cubs could take an aggressive stance and position themselves well in a wide-open division field.
For now, it seems they’ll shop primarily in the second and third tiers of the rotation market. Sharma points out that the Cubs have typically shied away from starters who’ve been attached to qualifying offers, though it’s worth noting that the Cubs were willing to part with draft picks and international funds in order to sign Dansby Swanson after he rejected a qualifying offer. They technically signed Cody Bellinger after he rejected a QO … though that offer came from the Cubs themselves, so they were really only “forfeiting” the theoretical comp pick they’d have received if he signed elsewhere.
Assuming the Burnes/Snell/Fried trio isn’t being considered by president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer and his staff, the Cubs will be looking at the next tier, with Jack Flaherty, Sean Manaea, Yusei Kikuchi, Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta and Luis Severino among the options. Of that group, Manaea, Pivetta and Severino rejected QOs and would cost the Cubs their second-highest pick and $500K of international space in their 2025 draft pool.
There are certainly names in that bunch who’d represent upgrades over incumbent starters at Wrigley Field. Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga form a nice one-two punch atop the in-house rotation, and the Cubs will follow them with veteran Jameson Taillon and young Javier Assad. Candidates for the fifth spot include Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski and top prospect Cade Horton. It’s a nice bunch of arms, but there’s some uncertainty in at least the fifth spot, if not the fourth. Assad posted a solid 3.79 ERA in 29 starts but did so with worse-than-average strikeout, walk and home-run rates. Metrics like FIP (4.64) and SIERA (4.72) are far less bullish than his earned run average.
Looking at the team’s payroll, the Cubs should have some spending room. RosterResource projects a $180MM payroll at the moment — $34MM shy of last year’s Opening Day mark. That includes a full arbitration class that could include some non-tender candidates (e.g. Nick Madrigal, Julian Merryweather).
The Cubs could also explore other ways to drop their payroll further. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote yesterday that the team could be looking to move Bellinger, though there are plenty of roadblocks to doing so. Bellinger is owed a $27.5MM salary in 2025 and a $5MM buyout on a 2026 player option. If he plays well for a season, the acquiring team would effectively be getting Bellinger at $32.5MM. That’s a hefty price tag in general and particularly for the 2024 version of Bellinger. While he played at an extremely high level in 2023, Bellinger was more of an above-average regular in 2024. A lack of impact left-handed bats and viable center fielders could still lead a team to consider the possibility, it’s hard to imagine a team giving a meaningful return and taking on the remainder/majority of Bellinger’s salary.
Still, moving Bellinger is also one of the only ways for the Cubs to plausibly pursue upgrades to the everyday lineup in 2025. As we noted when listing Bellinger near the back of our list of offseason trade candidates, the Cubs’ roster is already filled with expensive veterans who have no-trade clauses (Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki) or generally productive and affordable younger players like Michael Busch, Isaac Paredes and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Nico Hoerner might’ve been a trade candidate and could still be — but he also underwent flexor tendon surgery one month ago. Obviously, that cuts down on his appeal. The Cubs have a clear opening for an upgrade at catcher, but the free agent market offers little in the way of meaningful help there.
All of those challenges to upgrading the lineup make a notable splash on the pitching side of things feel more logical, but it seems the Cubs don’t feel similarly — at least not with regard to free agent starters. There are upgrades to be had on the bullpen market, of course, but the Cubs haven’t given out a multi-year deal to a reliever since Craig Kimbrel in 2019. Last winter’s $9MM guarantee to Hector Neris was the largest bullpen expenditure the Cubs have made since signing Kimbrel.
It’s possible the Cubs could just look to the trade market for much of their offseason dealing. The Cubs have a deep farm system with multiple top prospects whose path to a regular role at Wrigley is blocked. There aren’t, however, many impact arms or high-profile arms expected to be available. Crosstown ace Garrett Crochet headlines the offseason class of trade candidates, but demand for him will be fierce and trades of significance between the two Chicago clubs, while not unprecedented (Jose Quintana, Craig Kimbrel), also aren’t common.
There probably are still additional trades on the horizon for the Cubs. Sharma writes that this week’s acquisitions of reliever Eli Morgan from the Guardians and backup catcher Matt Thaiss from the Angels do not mean the Cubs are content in those areas. They’ll continue to explore both free agency and trades for help in those portions of the roster. But if pitching help remains their focus and they’re unwilling to shop in the high-rent district for starters, the Cubs will need to either break tradition with their free agent bullpen targets, get creative on the trade market, be content to address the middle ranks of the starting staff — or a combination of all the above.
Cody Bellinger Exercises Player Option With Cubs For 2025 Season
Cody Bellinger has exercised his $27.5MM player option for the 2025 season, according to ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan (X link). Bellinger’s three-year, $80MM deal with the Cubs last winter included opt-outs after both the 2024 and 2025 seasons, but Bellinger will pass on the first opt-out (and $2.5MM buyout) in order to remain in Chicago for at least one more year.
Bellinger also earned $27.5MM in the first year of his contract, so he’ll have a $25MM decision waiting for him with next year’s opt-out. With $5MM attached to that opt-out, Bellinger has now guaranteed himself $60MM of that initial $80MM payday, and could potentially be in line for another long-term contract if he delivers a big 2025 season.
Of course, Bellinger thought that his big 2023 season might’ve set him up for a lucrative long-term contract last winter, yet he ended up rejoining the Cubs for that three-year pact. Similar option-heavy shorter-term deals were also in the cards for other notable Scott Boras clients like Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, and Jordan Montgomery, leading the quartet to be known as the “Boras Four” as their trips through free agency dragged deep into Spring Training.
Bellinger signed near the end of February so he still had the benefit of most of spring camp, though injuries were probably the bigger reason why the former NL MVP’s performance dropped off from 2023. A fractured right rib and a fractured left middle finger resulted in a couple of relatively brief trips to the injured list, though Bellinger hit a modest .266/.325/.426 with 18 home runs over 569 plate appearances.
While his 109 wRC+ was still above the league average, it also wasn’t the kind of standout platform year that would’ve made Bellinger a lock to top the remaining salary on his Cubs contract. As a result, Bellinger was still reportedly unclear about his opt-out decision as late as September 20, and he has now chosen perhaps the slightly more cautious move of just sticking in Wrigleyville for another season.
There’s plenty of logic in Bellinger’s decision, beyond the obvious appeal of a $27.5MM payday. After being a free agent in each of the last two offseasons, a quiet winter with his 2025 destination already established surely had some appeal for Bellinger. He has also been vocal about how much he has enjoyed playing for the Cubs, so he’ll now stay in a familiar and welcome environment of the Friendly Confines.
From the Cubs’ perspective, they now have a pretty big salary on their books for 2025. Of course, a one-year outlay for a player with Bellinger’s upside isn’t exactly a bad outcome, and obviously it was an outcome the front office has planned for given the three-year contract. With Pete Crow-Armstrong now establishing himself in center field, Bellinger will probably be the Cubs’ primary right fielder next season, with Seiya Suzuki perhaps getting the bulk of DH duty. Bellinger’s ability to also play center field and first base adds to his versatility, and gives manager Craig Counsell some flexibility in figuring out his daily lineups.
As per RosterResource, the Cubs’ projected payroll for next year up to roughly $183.5MM, factoring in Bellinger staying and Drew Smyly leaving after Chicago declined their end of the veteran pitcher’s mutual option. This leaves the Cubs with plenty of spending space before they get up to the $241MM luxury tax threshold, provided the threshold is any sort of real barrier for ownership. The Cubs didn’t pay the tax in any of the 2021-23 seasons but may have just barely crossed the threshold this season, depending on the league’s final calculations.
Cody Bellinger Remains Undecided On Opt-Out
Cody Bellinger has one of the more significant opt-out decisions of the offseason. The Cubs center fielder/first baseman needs to decide whether to bypass the remaining two years and $50MM on the three-year, $80MM contract he signed late last winter. If he foregoes this year’s opt-out, he’d have another out clause during the 2025-26 offseason (when there’ll be $20MM left on the deal).
Last weekend, Bob Nightengale of USA Today wrote that Bellinger was “fully expected” to bypass this winter’s opt-out. That doesn’t seem to be set in stone, however. Patrick Mooney of the Athletic reported this evening that Bellinger has yet to decide whether he’ll test the market.
Bellinger is wrapping up a solid if slightly disappointing year. He’s hitting .268/.328/.432 with 18 home runs over 545 plate appearances. He has essentially maintained the career-best pure contact ability that he showed in 2023. Bellinger has fanned in 15.8% of his trips this year, marginally higher than the 15.6% strikeout rate he managed during his first season on the North Side.
The downturn has been in his power output. Bellinger had eight more home runs and 13 additional extra-base hits a year ago. He has another week to add to this season’s totals but isn’t going to make up that much ground. His slugging percentage is down more than .090 points from last year’s excellent .525 mark. The sustainability of last year’s power production was always the biggest question. Bellinger got to his impressive 2023 output despite a below-average 31.4% hard contact rate and 87.9 MPH average exit velocity. This year’s batted ball metrics are similarly middling and the results have indeed regressed.
There’s nevertheless still a lot to like in the profile. Bellinger has proven to be an above-average contact hitter. He’s another season removed from the dismal 2021-22 run that led the Dodgers to non-tender him before his final arbitration year. It’s safe to say that his 47-homer MVP form isn’t coming back, but Bellinger is a productive hitter. He’s still capable of playing center field, although the Cubs have used him increasingly in right field and at first base.
Bellinger has graded as an average defender in a little more than 400 center field innings. He has posted similar marks in more than 350 innings in right. The Cubs’ best outfield has defensive wunderkind Pete Crow-Armstrong in center. Another team could give Bellinger more consistent reps up the middle for at least a season or two.
The two-time All-Star remains one of the younger possible free agents in the class. Bellinger turned 29 in July. He’s more than a year younger than Harrison Bader, who’d probably be the top center fielder if Bellinger stays in Chicago. He’s nearly a year younger than Anthony Santander and about the same age as Tyler O’Neill. While there’s a decent amount of corner outfield talent — headlined, of course, by Juan Soto — the center field class is not strong. Bellinger declined a qualifying offer last winter and is no longer eligible to receive one, so there’d be no draft pick forfeiture this time around.
That’d work in Bellinger’s favor if he opted out. Between his age and decent all-around production, he’d have a decent argument for a four- or even five-year deal. If he simply wanted to maximize the guarantee, he shouldn’t have an issue beating the $50MM remaining on his current contract. That’d require taking a paycut next season though. Bellinger wouldn’t match next year’s $27.5MM salary on an annual basis over four or five years.
If Bellinger and his camp at the Boras Corporation expect his power to rebound, bypassing the opt-out would be the likely decision. He’d have another chance to retest the market in advance of his age-30 campaign in 12 months. Staying in Chicago may require playing right field for a full season in deference to Crow-Armstrong, though, potentially raising questions among other teams about his long-term viability in center field.
From the Cubs’ perspective, an opt-out would probably be the better outcome. That’d enable them to play Seiya Suzuki more frequently in right field instead of limiting him to designated hitter — where he’d need to play with Bellinger and Ian Happ flanking Crow-Armstrong. Michael Busch’s strong year lessens the need to have Bellinger around as a fallback at first base. The Cubs have questions at catcher, in the bullpen and at the back of the rotation.
How does the MLBTR readership expect things to play out?
Will Cody Bellinger Opt Out This Offseason?
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No. 61% (1,934)
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Yes. 39% (1,252)
Total votes: 3,186
Latest On Cody Bellinger
A year ago, Cubs center fielder Cody Bellinger was putting the finishing touches on a fantastic rebound campaign that saw him place in the top ten of NL MVP voting and earn his second career Silver Slugger award. On the heels of back-to-back disastrous campaigns with the Dodgers in 2021 and ’22 that led to him being non-tendered, Bellinger took a one-year deal with Chicago and slashed an excellent .307/.356/.525 (136 wRC+) with 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases, setting him up for what seemed sure to be a significant payday in free agency over the winter.
That, of course, did not come to pass. Bellinger was one of several free agents who found himself struggling to find a deal that met expectations, and ultimately returned to the Cubs on a three-year, $80MM deal that included opt-outs after each season. The 29-year-old’s second season in Chicago hasn’t quite lived up to his first, as he’s posted a .269/.332/.468 (114 wRC+) slash line in 518 trips to the plate while his elevated .319 BABIP has fallen to a .287 figure that’s more in line with his career norms and his power production has dipped to more closely match his batted ball metrics.
As Bellinger and his agent, Scott Boras, ponder whether or not to exercise his upcoming opt-out opportunity this November, it’s fair to wonder if there’s any reason for him to consider opting out coming off a worse offensive season than his previous platform year, which already resulted in a relative disappointment on the open market. Indeed, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote this morning that Bellinger is “fully expected” to remain with the Cubs rather than exercising his opt-out a returning to free agency this winter. Despite those expectations, however, the possibility that Bellinger could instead look to hit the open market for the third consecutive offseason cannot be overlooked.
After all, Bellinger’s offensive numbers this season, while worse than last year, are still well above league average. More importantly, however, his 2024 production is generally backed up by his peripheral numbers and appears likely to be sustainable for the 29-year-old. That’s thanks in part to the outfielder setting a career-best for strikeout rate for the second consecutive season this year, punching out at a 15.1% clip that’s good for 16th-best in the majors this year, just ahead of Bobby Witt Jr. and Jurickson Profar.
That improved combination of contact and discipline at the plate has helped to make up for the downturn in power production Bellinger has experienced this year, and is still more than enough to make Bellinger one of the top bats at his position in the majors. Among qualified center fielders this year, Bellinger’s aforementioned 114 wRC+ this year ranks seventh in the majors while his .332 on-base percentage is tied with Jazz Chisholm Jr. for fourth behind only AL MVP candidates Aaron Judge and Jarren Duran. Bellinger’s ability to play a quality center field while also delivering above average offense would make him stand out in a free agent class that without him would have Harrison Bader, who has hit just .244/.287/.390 (91 wRC+) in 407 trips to the plate with the Mets this year, as the top player available.
Given the fact that Bellinger also has an opt out following the 2025 season, it’s easy to imagine that he might simply be better off sticking with the Cubs, collecting a $27.5MM salary next year, and then returning to free agency prior to the 2026 season, when he would be leaving just $20MM on the table rather than the $50MM he’d forgo by opting out this year. While it’s true that a dominant offensive season from Bellinger could boost his profile, he’d also be marketing his age-30 campaign as opposed to his age-29 season and entering free agency on the wrong side of 30 can significantly depress a player’s earning potential. What’s more, he’d face much more competition in center field next year: The 2025-26 free agent class currently projects to include other notable center field options like Cedric Mullins, Willi Castro, and Trent Grisham, to say nothing of the possibility that Bader signs a one-year deal and returns to the open market himself next winter.
Bellinger’s status among free agency’s top center fielders would be diminished further by the fact that, he would almost assuredly not be used in center field next year if he were to remain with Chicago. The club’s recently-graduated top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong has already taken over center field on a regular basis in recent weeks, pairing elite defense at the position with nine homers and 27 stolen bases in just 356 trips to the plate this year. The 22-year-old’s 90 wRC+ on the season doesn’t immediately jump off the page, but it’s worth noting that he’s improved drastically over the course of the season with a .269/.319/.477 slash line (119 wRC+) since the start of July.
With Crow-Armstrong all but certain to be the club’s everyday center fielder in 2025, that would likely leave Bellinger forced to move to right field on a daily basis should he play for the Cubs next year, putting more pressure on his bat to produce at a level commensurate with the expectations of the position. Impressive as Bellinger’s offense has been for a center fielder, he ranks just 20th among 49 qualified outfielders this year in terms of wRC+, leaving him as a somewhat middling option offensively for an outfield corner. Without a significant step forward offensively next year, it’s easy to imagine Bellinger leaving money on the table by not exercising his opt-out this year and returning to free agency while he’s still under 30 years old and playing center field on a semi-regular basis.
Cubs Activate Cody Bellinger From 10-Day Injured List
The Cubs have activated Cody Bellinger from the 10-day injured list, according to multiple reporters. Bellinger has been on the IL since July 11 after he was hit by a Cionel Perez pitch, resulting in a fracture in his left middle finger. Fortunately for Bellinger and the Cubs, the injury hasn’t proven to be too serious, and Bellinger has been taking part in baseball activities.
The activation comes as a bit of a surprise due to the immediacy, as manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune) earlier today that Bellinger would return in a few days’ time. However, Bellinger apparently looked so good in his hitting progression that the club feels comfortable in activating him in time for today’s game with the Reds. Counsell recently suggested that Bellinger could return as a DH at first, as he was feeling comfortable hitting but was still having some issues throwing (Bellinger is left-handed).
Bellinger has hit .269/.331/.410 with nine home runs over 344 plate appearances this season, and he missed a couple of weeks due to a rib fracture earlier this year in addition to his just-completed IL stint. While Bellinger’s 108 wRC+ is above average, it is well below the 134 wRC+ he posted in 2023, and not what the Cubs were expecting when he was re-signed to a three-year, $80MM free agent deal last winter.
Since Bellinger can opt out of that contract after the season, he’ll have two more months to post some bigger numbers and build a better platform for another foray into the free agent market. If Bellinger decides to just stay with Chicago, he can also opt out following the 2025 campaign, giving him some extra flexibility down the road as he considers his long-term future. Between this contractual uncertainty, his recent injury absence, and his just-okay numbers, Bellinger is probably unlikely to be dealt by a Chicago team that has been doing more adding than subtracting in advance of tomorrow’s trade deadline.
Cubs Don’t Expect To Be Deadline Buyers
The Cubs’ deadline trajectory has been an oft-discussed topic over the course of the past few weeks, with the team sitting at or near the bottom of the NL Central but also within striking distance of the final NL Wild Card spot. They’ve ostensibly explored possibilities on both ends of the buy/sell spectrum, showing interest in Toronto catcher Danny Jansen while also reportedly talking with both the Yankees and Red Sox about the potential of a Jameson Taillon trade. The Cubs dropped their first two games coming out of the All-Star break to a D-backs team that’s now tied for the final Wild Card spot, though they dodged a sweep in an extra-inning win Sunday.
While the Cubs are 3.5 games out in the Wild Card hunt, the latest report from Patrick Mooney, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic indicates that the Cubs aren’t planning to be buyers at next week’s trade deadline. That’s not an indication there’ll be any kind of prominent fire sale for the Cubs either, however. Chicago hopes to contend next year and isn’t likely to move players who are under control unless they receive big league-ready talent in return.
As for the Cubs’ slate of rental players, there’s simply not much to peddle to other clubs. Drew Smyly is sitting on an impressive 2.92 ERA in 37 relief innings, but he’s also walked 10.2% of his opponents and is playing on a contract other teams will want to avoid. Smyly is owed the balance of an $8.5MM salary for the current season (about $3.2MM) in addition to a $2.5MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option for the 2025 season.
Righty Kyle Hendricks is a free agent at season’s end but isn’t going to draw any interest with a $16MM salary and a 6.69 ERA (unless the Cubs eat the entirety of his contract, perhaps). Hector Neris has a 3.74 ERA and 24.2% strikeout rate in 33 2/3 innings — but he’s also walked a career-worst 16.1% of opponents. Neris is playing on a $9MM salary, and his $9MM club option will convert to a player option if he appears in 24 more games this season (60 total). That’s going to turn off any potentially interested parties. Cody Bellinger can become a free agent at season’s end, but he’s on the injured list with a fractured finger and the two opt-out provisions on his three-year deal would’ve made trading him extraordinarily difficult anyhow.
The Athletic’s report at least raises the speculative possibility of listening to offers for starter Justin Steele, though with three-plus seasons of club control remaining, the price would presumably be as high or even higher than the asks for crosstown ace Garrett Crochet (two years of club control remaining) and AL Cy Young front-runner Tarik Skubal (the latter of whom is not expected to be traded). There’s no reason to think the Cubs would outwardly shop Steele, but listening to see if someone steps up with a Juan Soto-esque haul for last year’s fifth-place NL Cy Young finisher is sensible enough.
With regard to Taillon, there’d be some sense to moving him even if the team doesn’t envision a broad-reaching sell-off. In signing any free agent to a long-term deal, a team is most interested in the first couple years of said contract. The 2025-26 seasons will be Taillon’s age-33 and age-34 campaigns. He’ll earn $18MM in each season on his slightly backloaded $68MM deal. Moving him would free up some money to potentially spend on a younger pitcher this offseason — or perhaps on another area of need entirely.
The Cubs control Steele, Shota Imanaga, Javier Assad, Ben Brown, Hayden Wesneski and Jordan Wicks through at least the 2027 season. Prospects Cade Horton and Brandon Birdsell are rising quickly through the system. There’s some depth from which to deal, and a Taillon trade could bring in talent, shed future payroll and reduce future luxury tax obligations. Taillon wouldn’t command nearly the same type of haul as Steele for a number of reasons (age, salary, general talent level), but there aren’t many arms available so the Cubs could conceivably take advantage of that shortage and see what the market bears.
It’s worth emphasizing, too, that most teams’ plans remain pretty fluid this time of year. While teams facing a gaps of eight, nine, ten or more games in their respective postseason pursuits are sure to focus on selling (just as clubs in the opposite position will primarily focus on adding), nearly half the teams in baseball exist in a relative purgatory between those two ends of the spectrum. There’s currently a three-team tie for the third NL Wild Card spot (Mets, D-backs, Padres), and another five teams are within four games of that final spot — the Cubs among them. In the American League, there are four teams within six games of the final Wild Card spot.
For instance, if the Cubs snapped off six or seven straight wins beginning today, they’d presumably be far more open to the idea of adding some pieces. That’s particularly true because their next three games come against the division-leading Brewers. But a win streak of that nature is always a long shot, and it’s plenty notable that for the time being, Chicago isn’t viewing itself as a team that will trade even lower-caliber minor league talent in exchange for some marginal rental upgrades. Time will tell whether the players on the field can push the front office to take a more aggressive stance, but right now it seems likely the Cubs are in for a relatively quiet deadline.
Cubs Place Cody Bellinger On Injured List With Finger Fracture
The Cubs announced that outfielder Cody Bellinger has a fracture in his left middle finger and has been placed on the 10-day injured list. Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune was among those to relay the news on X. Fellow outfielder Alexander Canario has been recalled to take his spot on the active roster.
In last night’s game, Bellinger was hit on the hand by a pitch from left-hander Cionel Pérez. He departed the contest as he felt he couldn’t throw a ball, per Montemurro on X. Now it seems a fracture has been found and he’ll need to miss some time.
Teams are generally more willing to put a player on the IL around the All-Star break, as it allows for an extended breather while perhaps only missing a handful of games. But if Bellinger has a broken bone, he was probably going to need an IL stint regardless, though the club hasn’t yet indicated how much time they expect him to miss.
Either way, it’s a rough development for the club. Bellinger isn’t quite hitting as much as he did last year but his .269/.331/.410 batting line is still 9% better than league average, according to wRC+. He’s also stolen five bases while playing competent center field defense.
The Cubs are in a tight spot, as they are currently 44-49. That only leaves them 3.5 games back in the crowded National League Wild Card race but with several teams ahead of them. They are currently only ahead of the Rockies, Marlins and Nationals and would have to leapfrog six other clubs to get into postseason position. With the trade deadline now less than three weeks away, they will soon have to make some decisions about how aggressively to buy or sell or walk a fine line between the two.
Losing a player of Bellinger’s quality will make it a bit more challenging to climb in the standings in the next few weeks. Bellinger himself has also been speculated as a potential trade candidate, though the opt-outs in his contract make that a complicated endeavor, something that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently explored in a piece for Front Office Subscribers. If there was any chance of the Cubs lining up something there, it’s possible that this injury will make it less likely.
With Mike Tauchman also on the IL, the Cubs are now down two outfielders. They will have to proceed with a mix of Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ with Canario now in there as well. Canario has a stout batting line of .282/.333/.538 in his big league career. That’s come in a small sample of 42 plate appearances but he also has a strong line of .238/.330/.502 in Triple-A this year.
For Bellinger, it’s possible this impacts him personally. At the end of the year, he will have to trigger his opt-out or stick with the Cubs. He can take a $2.5MM buyout or stick around and collect a $27.5MM salary in 2025, with another $25MM player option and $5MM buyout for the following year. Whether he wants another crack at free agency or not will naturally depend on the kind of platform he produces here in 2024, so he will obviously be hoping to come back in good form in short order.
The Risk/Reward Of Acquiring Players With Opt-Outs
With four weeks until the trade deadline, a lot remains uncertain. Most teams still find themselves in a muddled middle and will wait until the last few days to determine how aggressively they'll buy or sell. That's especially true in the National League, where nine teams are within six games of one another as they fight for the final two Wild Card spots. The Mets, Giants and Cubs are among those borderline contenders. It wouldn't be especially surprising to see any of them wind up as sellers depending on how they play over the next few weeks.
The Mets are the NL's top non-playoff team and approaching the deadline as a buyer for the moment. Dropping a few games back in the standings by the end of the month could change that mentality. San Francisco and Chicago are a little further out and perhaps likelier sellers. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer suggested late last week that the team would need to perform better to avoid a sell-off. Why focus on those three specifically? Each has a notable player who'd be desirable trade candidates if not for their contract structures.
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2024-25 Player Option/Opt-Out Preview: June Edition
We’re two months into the 2024 season, meaning more than a third of the schedule has already elapsed. While there are still plenty of games remaining, there are enough in the books to affect the market of the upcoming free agent class.
That’s particularly true for players who can opt out of their current contracts. Player ages are for the 2025 season.
- Cody Bellinger (29): Can opt out of final two years and $52.5MM on three-year guarantee
Bellinger didn’t find the $200MM+ offer he was seeking last winter. As with a few other high-profile Boras Corporation clients (more on them in a minute), he pivoted to a short-term deal that allowed him to return to free agency next winter. Bellinger is arguably out to the best start of the bunch and seems on track to head back to the open market. He can earn a salary of $27.5MM in 2025 or take a $2.5MM buyout. If he decides to stay with the Cubs, he’ll then get to choose between a $25MM salary for 2026 or a $5MM buyout.
The lefty-hitting center fielder has a .265/.325/.459 line with eight homers over 203 plate appearances. His 15.8% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk percentage are on par with last year’s levels. Bellinger is again succeeding despite a below-average 33.8% hard contact rate. He’s not performing at quite the same pace he did in 2023, but the overall profile remains the same: good contact skills with the ability to play center field and mediocre batted ball metrics.
It could set up another winter where Bellinger’s exit velocities are the subject of plenty of debate. Perhaps his camp will need to lower their asking price in the early stages of his free agency, but the initial decision to opt out would be a straightforward one if he continues at this pace. He’d still be fairly young for a free agent at 29. Now two seasons removed from his dismal 2021-22 production, he also wouldn’t be saddled with a qualifying offer. Bellinger received the QO last winter, so he cannot receive another in his career.
- Matt Chapman (32): Can opt out of final two years and $36MM on three-year guarantee
Chapman also settled for a short-term deal after a tough finish to the 2023 season. The defensive stalwart inked a three-year, $54MM contract with the Giants early in Spring Training. He has a $17MM player option for next season and an $18MM player option for the ’26 campaign if he doesn’t take the first opt-out. There’s a $1MM buyout on a mutual option for 2027 as well.
Over 60 games in San Francisco, he’s hitting .238/.307/.411 with eight home runs. That’s slightly better than average production in this season’s diminished run environment. By measure of wRC+, Chapman has been nine percentage points better than average at the plate — right in line with his usual level. He’s putting the ball in play more than he ever had before, but he’s sacrificing a few walks and some of his typically huge exit velocities to do so. While this would probably be enough for Chapman to head back to free agency in search of a three- or four-year deal, it’s not likely to result in the nine-figure contract that seemingly wasn’t on the table last offseason.
- Gerrit Cole (34): Can opt out of final four years and $144MM on nine-year guarantee; team can override by exercising a $36MM option for 2029 if Cole declines his end
As recently as a few months ago, this decision looked preordained. Cole, coming off a Cy Young win and probably the best pitcher in baseball, would trigger the opt-out — only for the Yankees to override it by exercising a $36MM option for 2029. Boras suggested as much in a chat with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale in December.
His status has at least been somewhat complicated by elbow inflammation that arose during Spring Training. Cole has spent the entire season on the 60-day injured list; he’ll begin a minor league rehab stint tonight. If he looks like his typical self in the second half, this’ll probably be an easy call for Cole and the Yankees alike. If he struggles or, more worryingly, battles any other elbow concerns, he’d need to more seriously consider hanging onto the final four years and $144MM on his record free agent deal.
- Nathan Eovaldi (35): Conditional $20MM option if Eovaldi reaches 156 innings pitched or based on Cy Young/All-Star results
Eovaldi’s $34MM deal with the Rangers contained a conditional option for 2025 that went into effect if he threw at least 300 innings in the first two seasons. He logged 144 frames a year ago, meaning he needed 156 this season. Eovaldi lost three weeks to a groin strain. He has made nine starts and thrown 50 innings so far, leaving him 106 shy of the vesting threshold. With another 18-20 turns through the rotation, it’s still doable, but any other injuries would essentially rule it out.
He could also kick in the option with a top-five finish in Cy Young balloting or a top seven Cy Young finish and an All-Star selection. While he’s pitching very well, the Cy Young provision only comes into play if he falls short of 156 innings. Placing that high without reaching 156 frames is a tall task.
Even if he were to vest the option, Eovaldi may well prefer to head back to free agency in search of a multi-year deal. While he’ll be 35, he still looks the part of an upper mid-rotation starter. Eovaldi has followed up a 3.63 ERA during his first season in Arlington with a 2.70 mark to this point. His fastball is sitting around 96 MPH and he has punched out more than 26% of opposing hitters with a ground-ball rate north of 50%. There’ll always be lingering durability questions given his age and two previous Tommy John surgeries, yet on talent, Eovaldi is one of the better pitchers who could be available.
- Wilmer Flores (33): $3.5MM player option; team can override by exercising an $8.5MM option if Flores declines his end
In September 2022, the Giants signed Flores to a $16.5MM extension. He has a $3.5MM option for next season; if he declines, the Giants could keep him around by picking up an $8.5MM salary. Flores had arguably the best year of his career in 2023, drilling a personal-high 23 homers with a .284/.355/.509 slash line. The pendulum has swung in the opposite direction this season. He has only one longball with a .207/.276/.283 mark in 163 trips to the plate. Flores’ strikeout and walk profile haven’t changed, but his contact quality has plummeted.
A full season of replacement level production would make it likely that Flores takes the $3.5MM salary. There’s still time for him to find his power stroke, though.
- Lucas Giolito (30): $19MM player option
Giolito is likely to take a $19MM salary from the Red Sox next year. The typically durable right-hander suffered a UCL injury during his second Spring Training appearance with Boston. He underwent an internal brace procedure and will miss the entire season. While he could be ready for the start of next season, he’d be hard-pressed to match a $19MM salary coming off the elbow procedure.
Opting in would trigger a conditional team/mutual option for the 2026 season, though. If Giolito doesn’t top 140 innings next year, the Sox would have a $14MM option (with a $1.5MM buyout) for ’26. Giolito would convert that to a $19MM mutual option by reaching the 140-inning plateau.
- Mitch Haniger (34): Can opt out of final year and $15.5MM on three-year guarantee
The Giants signed Haniger to a three-year, $43.5MM free agent deal two winters back. That allowed him to opt out of the final season’s $15.5MM salary. Haniger’s time in the Bay Area was a disappointment. A broken arm limited him to 61 games and he didn’t hit well when healthy. San Francisco dealt him back to the Mariners last offseason in a change-of-scenery swap involving Robbie Ray and Anthony DeSclafani.
Haniger is the only member of that trio who has played in 2024. (Ray is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, while DeSclafani was flipped to the Twins and ultimately required elbow surgery himself.) The veteran outfielder hasn’t hit in his return to the Pacific Northwest. He carries a .221/.282/.349 line with six homers and a strikeout rate approaching 28% in 213 plate appearances. He’s trending towards sticking around.
- Rhys Hoskins (32): Can opt out of final year and $18MM on two-year guarantee
Hoskins inked a two-year, $34MM deal with the Brewers after losing all of 2023 to an ACL tear. He landed in a favorable hitting environment in Milwaukee with a chance to prove he was back to his typical offensive form. Hoskins has done just that over the season’s first two months, connecting on 10 homers with a .243/.345/.486 line through 168 trips. He’s well on his way to opting out and would be one of the top offensive players in next year’s free agent class. The Brewers could make him a qualifying offer.
- Clayton Kershaw (37): $5MM+ player option
The Dodgers brought back the future Hall of Famer, who is rehabbing from an offseason shoulder procedure. His deal contains a 2025 player option with a $5MM base value and significant escalators. It’d jump to $7MM if he makes six starts this season, $3MM apiece for each of his seventh through ninth start, and another $4MM if he starts 10 games. Performance bonuses could push his 2025 salary as high as $25MM.
It’s likely Kershaw will exercise the option regardless of where the specific value winds up. He has been throwing but has yet to begin a rehab stint. A return relatively early in the season’s second half — which would give him a chance to get to 10 starts — is still in play.
- Sean Manaea (33): $13.5MM player option
Manaea opted out of a $12.5MM salary last winter and landed a two-year, $28MM pact from the Mets. He’s been a rare bright spot in a dismal season in Queens. Over 11 starts, the southpaw has tossed 57 innings of 3.63 ERA ball. He has a solid 23.2% strikeout rate behind an 11.2% swinging strike percentage. Manaea’s 9.9% walk rate is a personal high, but he’s looked the part of a decent mid-rotation starter.
If he continues at this pace, he’d likely forego next year’s $13.5MM salary and hit the market for a third straight winter. Manaea will be heading into his age-33 campaign and could look for a two- or three-year pact (potentially the final multi-year deal of his career). Even if wouldn’t dramatically improve on his annual salary, pitchers like Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha have gotten multi-year deals in their mid-30s for mid-rotation work.
- Nick Martinez (34): $12MM player option
Cincinnati guaranteed Martinez $26MM over two seasons — $14MM this year with a $12MM option for 2025. That investment made it appear the Reds would give him an extended look in the rotation. They’ve instead kept him in the swing role which he played for most of his time with the Padres. Martinez has started five of 13 games, posting a 4.20 ERA across 49 1/3 innings. He has a microscopic 0.76 ERA from the bullpen but has been rocked for a 7.36 mark out of the rotation.
On the surface, Martinez’s production doesn’t seem all that eye-catching. It’s not too dissimilar to Manaea’s work in a swing role with the Giants in 2023, though. Manaea turned in a 4.44 ERA while starting 10 of 37 games with San Francisco. He declined a $12.5MM player option and found a multi-year deal with a team willing to give him a rotation spot. Martinez (like Manaea, a Boras Corp. client) has opted out of multi-year commitments from San Diego in each of the last two offseasons. He’d probably do the same next winter if his performance doesn’t dramatically turn.
- Jordan Montgomery (32): Conditional $20MM option if Montgomery reaches 10 starts
Montgomery agreed to terms with the Diamondbacks just days before the start of the regular season. He landed a $25MM salary for this year and a conditional player option for 2025. The condition — making 10 MLB starts — would only not come into play if the southpaw suffered a significant injury. Montgomery is already two starts away from vesting the option. Its value would escalate to $25MM if he gets to 23 starts.
The 31-year-old certainly anticipated declining that option and trying his hand again in free agency. He’s been hit hard through his first eight starts in the desert, though. Montgomery has been tagged for a 5.48 earned run average across 44 1/3 innings. While he’s still showing good control, his strikeout rate has plummeted seven points to a poor 14.4% rate. His four-seam and sinker are each averaging less than 92 MPH after sitting around 93.5 MPH last season. Perhaps Montgomery is still shaking off rust related to his delayed start to the year, yet his early performance could make the option decision tougher than he expected.
- Emilio Pagán (34): $8MM player option ($250K buyout)
The Reds signed Pagán to a two-year, $16MM contract with the ability to collect a $250K buyout in lieu of an $8MM salary next season. It was an odd fit considering Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly home park and Pagán’s longstanding trouble with the longball. His first 21 appearances as a Red have been fine. He owns a 4.19 ERA across 19 1/3 innings. The righty has a customarily strong 30.5% strikeout rate against an 8.5% walk percentage. He has surrendered four homers.
Pagán, who is currently on the 15-day injured list with triceps tightness, has performed about as the Reds probably anticipated. This one can still go either way, but an $8MM salary for his age-34 season feels about right for his market value.
- Wandy Peralta (33): Can opt out of final three years and $12.65MM on four-year guarantee
The Padres surprisingly signed Peralta to a four-year deal as a means of reducing the contract’s luxury tax hit. The veteran southpaw has been effective, turning in a 2.66 ERA across 23 2/3 innings. Peralta doesn’t miss many bats, but he’s an excellent ground-ball specialist (55.6% this season, 53.1% for his career). Even though he’s pitching well, it’d be somewhat surprising to see him walk away from another three years and almost $13MM covering his age 33-35 seasons.
- Robbie Ray (33): Can opt out of final two years and $50MM on five-year guarantee
Ray’s five-year, $115MM contract with the Mariners allowed him to bypass the final two seasons valued at $25MM annually. Ray had a solid, if not overwhelming, first season in Seattle. His elbow gave out after one start in year two. Ray underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023. The Mariners offloaded the final three years of his contract in the Haniger trade with the Giants.
The former AL Cy Young winner is targeting a return around the All-Star Break. He has been throwing from a mound and could head on a rehab stint in the coming days. Odds are against an opt-out right now, but a dominant second half could change the calculus.
- Hunter Renfroe (33): $7.5MM player option ($1MM buyout)
The Royals signed Renfroe to a surprisingly strong two-year, $13MM deal. The righty-hitting outfielder was coming off a middling .233/.297/.416 showing between the Angels and Reds a year ago. He has had a very rough start to his Kansas City tenure, hitting .178/.256/.309 with only four homers in 168 plate appearances. It’d take a major reversal in the season’s final few months for him to forego a $7.5MM salary.
- Blake Snell (32): $30MM player option
The Giants jumped in late on Chapman and even later to grab the defending NL Cy Young winner. Snell signed a two-year, $62MM guarantee two weeks before Opening Day. The hope for everyone involved was that he’d collect the first $32MM and pitch well enough to pass on next season’s $30MM option.
Snell’s first two months in the Bay Area couldn’t have gone much worse. He has battled groin issues throughout the season. Snell lost around a month with an adductor (groin) strain between April and May. He went back on the 15-day IL last night. He has taken the ball six times and been rocked for a 9.51 ERA over 23 2/3 innings. Needless to say, he’ll need a much better final four months to go back to free agency.
- Chris Stratton (34): $4.5MM player option ($500K buyout)
The Renfroe deal wasn’t the only surprising two-year pact with an opt-out that the Royals signed last winter. They signed Stratton, a generally solid middle reliever, to an $8MM deal containing a $4.5MM option for next season. The right-hander was coming off a 3.92 ERA performance across 82 2/3 innings out of the St. Louis and Texas bullpens.
He hasn’t been as effective for the Royals, allowing 5.76 earned runs per nine through 25 frames. Stratton’s strikeout rate is down a few points to 21.7%, but the much bigger issue is an uncharacteristic inability to find the zone. He has walked almost 16% of batters faced, more than doubling last season’s rate.
- Justin Verlander (42): Conditional $35MM option if Verlander reaches 140 innings pitched
Verlander would unlock a $35MM player option if he throws 140 innings this season. While he was delayed to start the year by shoulder discomfort, he has logged 52 innings in nine starts since his return. Barring another injury, he’ll throw more than 88 innings over the season’s final four months.
At 41, Verlander is still pitching well — a 3.63 ERA with a 22.2% strikeout rate — but he’s not operating at Cy Young form. If he continues at this pace all season, matching a $35MM salary on the open market is unlikely. Verlander seems comfortable in Houston and would probably prefer to stick with the Astros, though that may depend on whether the team plays better before the deadline. Verlander approved a trade from the Mets back to Houston last summer when it became clear that New York wasn’t going to be a legitimate World Series contender during his contract. At 27-34, the Astros need to turn things around quickly to put themselves in position for an eighth straight trip to the ALCS.
- Michael Wacha (33): $16MM player option
Wacha landed in Kansas City on a two-year commitment with matching $16MM salaries and the opportunity to head back to free agency after year one. The veteran righty is pitching well enough to make that a consideration. He owns a 4.24 ERA across 12 starts and 68 innings. That’s a run higher than his ERA of the past two seasons, but the general profile remains the same.
He throws strikes with slightly below-average whiff rates. He has thrown between 120-140 innings in each of the last three seasons and looks on his way to matching or surpassing that in 2024. Opting out in search of another two-year deal in the $30MM range is plausible.
Cubs To Activate Cody Bellinger
Cubs manager Craig Counsell announced that outfielder Cody Bellinger is going to be activated from the injured list today, relayed by Bruce Levine of 670 The Score on X. The full slate of moves was laid out by Madde Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times on X, with outfielder Alexander Canario optioned to Triple-A, while right-hander Daniel Palencia was placed on the 15-day injured list due to right shoulder stiffness with fellow righty Keegan Thompson recalled to take his place. Additionally, outfielder Seiya Suzuki is going on a rehab assignment, playing with Triple-A Iowa tomorrow. Lee was among those to relay that on X.
Bellinger landed on the IL a couple of weeks ago after colliding with the Wrigley Field wall and fracturing two ribs. Despite that scary diagnosis, he’s made a quick return without going out on a rehab assignment.
Prior to the injury, Bellinger had hit five home runs in his first 22 games of the season. Despite a tiny .215 batting average on balls in play, he was still slashing .226/.320/.440 for a 107 wRC+. With the Cubs in 2023, he hit 26 homers and had a .307/.356/.525 batting line, which translated to a 134 wRC+.
The quick return should be good for both the club and for Bellinger personally. Assuming he finds a bit better batted ball luck going forward, his numbers this year could move closer to where they were last year. That would naturally be good for the club’s offense while also helping set Bellinger up for this winter.
Despite his strong 2023 season, Bellinger never found a large contract to his liking. That was perhaps at least partially due to his notable struggles in 2021 and 2022 in the aftermath of shoulder surgery. He returned to the Cubs on a three-year deal with opt-outs after each season, allowing him to grab a bit of financial security while also giving him the chance to return to free agency when he sees fit.
Another lengthy injury layoff would have hurt his chances at maximizing his earning power this coming winter, so the quick turnaround still gives him a shot at putting together a good stretch of quality playing time between now and the end of the year.
Pete Crow-Armstrong came up when Bellinger first got injured but it seems he’s sticking around for now. His defense is excellent but he’s hitting just .216/.231/.351 on the year so far. Perhaps he will stick in center with Bellinger in a corner or in the designated hitter slot, with Mike Tauchman and Ian Happ also in that mix. But when Suzuki is ready to come off the IL, perhaps Crow-Armstrong will be optioned back down for regular playing time with Bellinger back in the regular center field role.